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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:38 am
by tommy1808
Waterbomber2 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
IMO It's time to close supermarkets.

...

Boy am I glad that I was an early mover and didn't listen to early government and media calls to "not panic and hoard food."


Just one question - if you close supermarkets, what's your solution to, you know, feed people? :scratchchin:

Glad to hear you're OK. :sarcastic:


Thanks and the solutions were shown in the post you are quoting.
In Wuhan, pharmacies and supermarkets are closed to the public and that's probably going to be the case elsewhere soon.

For your reference, and your majesty's approval:

"
This is how it's being done in Wuhan, we'd be stupid not to learn from it..


well, they are sure as hell never going to leak how many people that policy ended up killing... they are kicking reporters out left and right for a reason.

At some point they are going to have to lift the severe restrictions and chase down flare ups ever after until a vaccine is available.

best regards
Thomas

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:58 am
by CarbonFibre
This list is getting longer and longer all the time:

1. Quarantine and Martial Law

2. Cashless Agenda

3. Global Financial Crash / Economic Reset?

4. Rolling out of Digital Currencies / One World Currency?

5. Cover for 5G Rollout

6. Surveillance

7. Censorship

8. Mandatory Vaccination

9. The Human Microchipping Agenda

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:43 am
by zakuivcustom
Waterbomber2 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
IMO It's time to close supermarkets.

...

Boy am I glad that I was an early mover and didn't listen to early government and media calls to "not panic and hoard food."


Just one question - if you close supermarkets, what's your solution to, you know, feed people? :scratchchin:

Glad to hear you're OK. :sarcastic:


Thanks and the solutions were shown in the post you are quoting.
In Wuhan, pharmacies and supermarkets are closed to the public and that's probably going to be the case elsewhere soon.

For your reference, and your majesty's approval:

"
This is how it's being done in Wuhan, we'd be stupid not to learn from it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAsTMl3txyQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMoH-SlYMQQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyucJekT87E "


I'm due for a hair cut but I'm gonna pass for a while.
Even a hair cut is risky business these days.


In Wuhan, yes, bc that's literally the epicentre.

Rest of China? Some cities went into "soft lockdown", but grocery stores and markets remained open. They did limit how often people can go to supermarkets (i.e. once every 3-4 days, and one person per household only) to make sure that there is no large crowds. But total shutdown? Not even in China outside of Wuhan.

Lots of supermarket in US actually have online ordering and pick-up (i.e. Kroger with its "Clicklist"). At worst that's what going to happen in US - i.e. grocery stores moving to pick-up only.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:18 pm
by lugie
CarbonFibre wrote:
This list is getting longer and longer all the time:

1. Quarantine and Martial Law

2. Cashless Agenda

3. Global Financial Crash / Economic Reset?

4. Rolling out of Digital Currencies / One World Currency?

5. Cover for 5G Rollout

6. Surveillance

7. Censorship

8. Mandatory Vaccination

9. The Human Microchipping Agenda



One can only hope that #8 will be a consequence of this crisis. People resisting vaccines against diseases like measles should be locked up for biological terrorism.

Also, I feel like #7 should be implemented at least in so far as it concerns censoring public figures from spreading certifiably wrong information.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:29 pm
by CarbonFibre
lugie wrote:
Also, I feel like #7 should be implemented at least in so far as it concerns censoring public figures from spreading certifiably wrong information.


The MSM have had it then!

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:30 pm
by melpax
[quote="zakuivcustom"][/quote]

The panic buying situation has gotten so out of hand here in Australia, that the major supermarkets have had to suspend the majority of their online deliveries, and no more click & collect for the moment. The 2 big chains have started closing their stores at 8PM until further notice, Aldi have shortened their hours to 9.30am-7pm. The state govenments have started to override the local councils to allow the supermarkets to get deliveries into curfew-affected stores at night in an effort to restock.

On a more positive note, the AFL season has started tonight, at an empty MCG. Very strange atomosphere watching on TV, with umpires reminding players to mind their language!

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/rei ... 54bz8.html

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:34 pm
by tommy1808
CarbonFibre wrote:
lugie wrote:
Also, I feel like #7 should be implemented at least in so far as it concerns censoring public figures from spreading certifiably wrong information.


The MSM have had it then!


MSN is more than fox news, Breitbart and other right wing media. Heck, until two days ago even the President would have had to be censored.

Best regards
Thomas

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:44 pm
by Aaron747
scbriml wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
So if Orange Man Bad is so crazy incompetent why is the USA actually one of the best at tamping down its spread.


Unfortunately, despite Trump's best (or worst) efforts, the spread in the US seems to be following the same pattern as just about everywhere else both in terms of cases and deaths.

Cases:
Image

Deaths:
Image

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


This is a better comparison - the US is now ticking slightly above the Italian trendline.

Image

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:51 pm
by AirWorthy99
Spain situation critical, one dead every 12 min from Coronavirus, yesterday they had 160+ dead and the worse is yet to come.

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-18/ ... adrid.html

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:52 pm
by ltbewr
Here in NJ a supermarket opened at 6 am to those over 65. By 6:08, all the toilet paper was gone. The panic buying for certain items like TP, Tylenol, certain basics like rice, pasta, canned, fresh and pre-packaged meats and frozen foods continues.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:52 pm
by dtw2hyd
We haven't heard much from Africa or South America. What is going on there?

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:56 pm
by zakuivcustom
melpax wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:


The panic buying situation has gotten so out of hand here in Australia, that the major supermarkets have had to suspend the majority of their online deliveries, and no more click & collect for the moment. The 2 big chains have started closing their stores at 8PM until further notice, Aldi have shortened their hours to 9.30am-7pm. The state govenments have started to override the local councils to allow the supermarkets to get deliveries into curfew-affected stores at night in an effort to restock.

On a more positive note, the AFL season has started tonight, at an empty MCG. Very strange atomosphere watching on TV, with umpires reminding players to mind their language!

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/rei ... 54bz8.html


I was in a supermarket last night here in US, and the panic buying is definitely there. I also see those shelf stockers working as hard as possible to keep things in stock.

IMHO they can go full click & connect AND begin things like "Limited to xxx per account/address per day". Inventory control is a lot easier that way.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:36 pm
by 94717
Aaron747 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
So if Orange Man Bad is so crazy incompetent why is the USA actually one of the best at tamping down its spread.


Unfortunately, despite Trump's best (or worst) efforts, the spread in the US seems to be following the same pattern as just about everywhere else both in terms of cases and deaths.

Cases:
Image

Deaths:
Image

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


This is a better comparison - the US is now ticking slightly above the Italian trendline.

Image


What will make things worse is no nation wide health care insurance nor sick leave pay...

Many people will not affort being at home for 30 days.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:44 pm
by mad99
Just back from Carrefour here in Madrid. I decided to do the heavy shopping by car at lunch time, hoping to reduce the number of shoppers. Not a lot of people shopping with everyone respecting at least 1,5m distance between people. Any items not food were taped off and not being sold. Everything normal except for the 50% waring masks and reduced numbers.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:48 pm
by casinterest
olle wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Unfortunately, despite Trump's best (or worst) efforts, the spread in the US seems to be following the same pattern as just about everywhere else both in terms of cases and deaths.

Cases:
Image

Deaths:
Image

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


This is a better comparison - the US is now ticking slightly above the Italian trendline.

Image


What will make things worse is no nation wide health care insurance nor sick leave pay...

Many people will not affort being at home for 30 days.


True,
I noticed today that many home builders/contractors and others are continuing to work and stopping at the local convenience stores to get their morning coffees and supplies.

At the end of the day, those working are not the ones to worry about . It is their parents and other elderly folks with underlying conditions that interact with them after they have worked and caught it.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:48 pm
by Tugger
So far I am seeing stores being restocked each day (sometimes with trucks arriving twice a day), not seeing any "panic buying" anymore (just shelves emptier way sooner than I ever have before), stores closing earlier to allow restocking time.

We're still getting what we need when we want to.

Tugg

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:49 pm
by casinterest
Tugger wrote:
So far I am seeing stores being restocked each day (sometimes with trucks arriving twice a day), not seeing any "panic buying" anymore (just shelves emptier way sooner than I ever have before), stores closing earlier to allow restocking time.

We're still getting what we need when we want to.

Tugg



I suspect grocery stores are doing more business where people are not going out to eat, which is causing a bit of this issue.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:01 pm
by Aaron747
dtw2hyd wrote:
We haven't heard much from Africa or South America. What is going on there?


Most of Africa’s cases have been in Egypt. Many African countries have regular trade links with China, but not large tourist influx - Kenya and South Africa are exceptions, but they have already banned Chinese and European travelers for now. The rapidity of China shutting down travel may have insulated Africa somewhat. Epidemiologists also say it could be difficult to identify any existing cases with mild symptoms because of the large outlay of tropical disease infection always present in equatorial Africa.

Have not heard much about the goings on in South America...

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:04 pm
by Pellegrine
Aaron747 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
So if Orange Man Bad is so crazy incompetent why is the USA actually one of the best at tamping down its spread.


Unfortunately, despite Trump's best (or worst) efforts, the spread in the US seems to be following the same pattern as just about everywhere else both in terms of cases and deaths.

Cases:
Image

Deaths:
Image

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


This is a better comparison - the US is now ticking slightly above the Italian trendline.

Image


Agreed. Latest figures show NY State ticking ABOVE Italy. And in fact the whole US might be. They are doing 5000/day tests in NY? Insane. We need more testing NOW.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:17 pm
by AirWorthy99
Aaron747 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
We haven't heard much from Africa or South America. What is going on there?


Most of Africa’s cases have been in Egypt. Many African countries have regular trade links with China, but not large tourist influx - Kenya and South Africa are exceptions, but they have already banned Chinese and European travelers for now. The rapidity of China shutting down travel may have insulated Africa somewhat. Epidemiologists also say it could be difficult to identify any existing cases with mild symptoms because of the large outlay of tropical disease infection always present in equatorial Africa.

Have not heard much about the goings on in South America...


They are getting a lot of cases, Brazil is leading with 500+

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

but there is a lot of under reporting because in Latin America there isn't much health infrastructure and solid institutions to actually get a real metric. Latin America is as densely populated as Europe, people like to live closer to each other because of their behavior so this can very much spike.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:19 pm
by Pellegrine
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/busi ... ticleShare

The US GDP could drop 14% this quarter. That's not a recession, more akin to what happened in wartime Europe. I have to look up.

The solution though? A no-interest bridge loan to everyone and every entity. The cost? Up to $10 trillion. What Sorkin says makes sense.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:23 pm
by sebolino
scbriml wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
So if Orange Man Bad is so crazy incompetent why is the USA actually one of the best at tamping down its spread.


Unfortunately, despite Trump's best (or worst) efforts, the spread in the US seems to be following the same pattern as just about everywhere else both in terms of cases and deaths.


Trump is now saying that he knew from the beginning that it would be an epidemic. :-)
Lol, a real master in rewriting history.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:16 pm
by Pellegrine
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/gov-ron-des ... ssion=true

FL Governor Ron DeSantis is finally getting around to shutting down Florida. "The party is over." TOO LATE. We will see how many elderly Floridians lives this costs.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:38 pm
by Derico
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
We haven't heard much from Africa or South America. What is going on there?


Most of Africa’s cases have been in Egypt. Many African countries have regular trade links with China, but not large tourist influx - Kenya and South Africa are exceptions, but they have already banned Chinese and European travelers for now. The rapidity of China shutting down travel may have insulated Africa somewhat. Epidemiologists also say it could be difficult to identify any existing cases with mild symptoms because of the large outlay of tropical disease infection always present in equatorial Africa.

Have not heard much about the goings on in South America...


They are getting a lot of cases, Brazil is leading with 500+

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

but there is a lot of under reporting because in Latin America there isn't much health infrastructure and solid institutions to actually get a real metric. Latin America is as densely populated as Europe, people like to live closer to each other because of their behavior so this can very much spike.


It's not as bad as there "isn't much health infrastructure". Some areas have very sparse infrastructure, and the wealthier areas have fairly adequate hospitals. The problem is that the facilities tend to work with razor thin margins on materials, so they would be overwhelmed in a moderate pandemic with more difficulty in ramping up things like in the wealthiest countries. Population density is lower than Europe, and much lower the farther south you go.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:53 pm
by slider
https://twitter.com/YossiGestetner/stat ... 54176?s=20

Interesting statistical timeline here and watching how this unfolds. He's been tracking this daily, and benchmarking Italy vs US. Also germane given the massive population disparity between the two.

Here is where Italy/US were at their respective Day 15s:

Italy (March 8th) 366 deaths and NORTH LOCKDOWN.

US (March 18th) 109 deaths.

Italy's death rate was 4.96% (366 deaths out of 7,375 known cases).

The US death rate was 1.62% (150 deaths out of 9,259 known cases).

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:53 pm
by 94717
Pellegrine wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Unfortunately, despite Trump's best (or worst) efforts, the spread in the US seems to be following the same pattern as just about everywhere else both in terms of cases and deaths.

Cases:
Image

Deaths:
Image

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


This is a better comparison - the US is now ticking slightly above the Italian trendline.

Image


Agreed. Latest figures show NY State ticking ABOVE Italy. And in fact the whole US might be. They are doing 5000/day tests in NY? Insane. We need more testing NOW.



Considering that USA seems to get worse hit then italy without a national wide health insurance to fall back on;

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 11401.html

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:54 pm
by slider
Pellegrine wrote:
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/gov-ron-desantis-says-florida-is-shutting-down-for-spring-breakers-the-party-is-over/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

FL Governor Ron DeSantis is finally getting around to shutting down Florida. "The party is over." TOO LATE. We will see how many elderly Floridians lives this costs.


Although to be fair, I don't think the elderly Floridians are partying on the beaches for spring break. There is already a great deal of self-quarantining and distancing the older populations have done.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:57 pm
by casinterest
slider wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/gov-ron-desantis-says-florida-is-shutting-down-for-spring-breakers-the-party-is-over/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

FL Governor Ron DeSantis is finally getting around to shutting down Florida. "The party is over." TOO LATE. We will see how many elderly Floridians lives this costs.


Although to be fair, I don't think the elderly Floridians are partying on the beaches for spring break. There is already a great deal of self-quarantining and distancing the older populations have done.


The issue is the transmission rate. Partying spring breakers could carry it and deposit the virus at gas stations, restaurants, Doctor's offices, grocery stores, and can increase the susceptibility of those at risk that need basic items.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:17 pm
by Dieuwer
casinterest wrote:
slider wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/gov-ron-desantis-says-florida-is-shutting-down-for-spring-breakers-the-party-is-over/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

FL Governor Ron DeSantis is finally getting around to shutting down Florida. "The party is over." TOO LATE. We will see how many elderly Floridians lives this costs.


Although to be fair, I don't think the elderly Floridians are partying on the beaches for spring break. There is already a great deal of self-quarantining and distancing the older populations have done.


The issue is the transmission rate. Partying spring breakers could carry it and deposit the virus at gas stations, restaurants, Doctor's offices, grocery stores, and can increase the susceptibility of those at risk that need basic items.


We should admit the fact that the virus has probably spread EVERYWHERE already.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:33 pm
by dobilan
What I'm really starting to fear is that the current lacking vision and panic driven decision will end up into major economical and geopolitical imbalancely which will ultimately drag the world into a major war (maybe even WW3 style). And then the current pandemics will look like a walk in the park. I think there are strategic industries that must be kept alive at almost any cost. Furthermore, there are lot of places where operator/workers do their job quite far apart one of another and with adequate protection and education, the disease spread can be relatively easy to avoid. I'm thinking about agriculture, cargo road and maritime transport, some manufacturing plants and so on. The more I read, the more I think the cat is out of the bag and the virus is here to stay. I think states, companies and individual should think how to adapt to the new situation and that would be it. I'm not even starting to thinl of the effects of long indoor stay (without clean air, physical activity or direct sunlight) for people (especially for youngsters and children). Not to mention the mental health of the population. I think we are starting to play a dangerous gamble :(

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:45 pm
by scbriml
sebolino wrote:
scbriml wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
So if Orange Man Bad is so crazy incompetent why is the USA actually one of the best at tamping down its spread.


Unfortunately, despite Trump's best (or worst) efforts, the spread in the US seems to be following the same pattern as just about everywhere else both in terms of cases and deaths.


Trump is now saying that he knew from the beginning that it would be an epidemic. :-)
Lol, a real master in rewriting history.


Trump is an idiot. I was just watching him live from the White House. In one breath he's complaining that China hid the virus and didn't tell anyone, then he claims he foresaw a pandemic before anyone knew about it, then when asked why America wasn't sufficiently prepared, he goes back to blaming China. :spin:

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:56 pm
by PixelPilot
scbriml wrote:
sebolino wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Unfortunately, despite Trump's best (or worst) efforts, the spread in the US seems to be following the same pattern as just about everywhere else both in terms of cases and deaths.


Trump is now saying that he knew from the beginning that it would be an epidemic. :-)
Lol, a real master in rewriting history.


Trump is an idiot. I was just watching him live from the White House. In one breath he's complaining that China hid the virus and didn't tell anyone, then he claims he foresaw a pandemic before anyone knew about it, then when asked why America wasn't sufficiently prepared, he goes back to blaming China. :spin:


https://nypost.com/2020/02/29/china-off ... port-says/

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... ialnetwork


https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152

Yep. it's China. Been from the start and now they are running a commie smear campaign and a lot of people on the left are taking the bait or sing to their overlords tune since they pay them maybe or orange man bad?
It really is interesting times that during such distress for a nation people cheer for commie regimes that are brutal and brutal being an understatement.

This guy sums it up perfectly:
https://twitter.com/arslan_hidayat/stat ... 85408?s=20

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:34 pm
by JetBuddy
DocLightning wrote:
I want to address some rumors I've heard.

The virus is killing more and more young people/more young people are in the ICU
On a population level, there are generally more people under 50 than over. In addition, many of the very elderly population have advanced directives and will not wind up in an ICU. Moreover, young, fit, "atypical" patients are more shocking and their deaths are more tragic, so we hear about them more. Everyone heard about the 33yo Chinese physician, Dr. Li Wenliang, who was instrumental in discovering and documenting this disease who died.

But in China almost 4,000 healthcare workers were infected and only 13 died.

Blood pressure medications might increase your risk of severe disease
No. This assumption is based on the finding that taking medicines in the angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi) class (benazepril, lisinopril, ramipril, fosinopril, etc.) or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) class (losartan, valsartan, candesartan, olmesartan, etc.) increase expression of the ACE2 surface protein, which is the surface protein on cells to which the virus particle attaches.

1) This requires a very simplistic assumption that surface ACE2 receptor concentration is the rate-limiting factor in the progression of the disease. Viral infections and immune responses are far more complex than that and even when expressed at low levels, there would be enough surface ACE2 on the surface of AT2 cells (a minority of cells in the lung) to allow for infection in any event. Moreover, once the virus infects a cell, it can cause formation of a syncitium, which is a fusion of two cells, allowing viral components to traverse directly from one cell to the next without needing to use any surface receptor.

2) These medications also increase the level of SOLUBLE ACE2, which means that there are the virus-binding pieces of this protein floating around freely, which would actually block the virus from binding to surface-bound ACE2.

3) In one sample in China, only 35% of hypertensive patients that had critical disease were on an ACEi or ARB, which is less than you would expect.

NSAIDs like ibuprofen make the disease worse
I maintain that this was irresponsible of the WHO and erodes confidence in large leadership organizations. There is only a tiny bit of data to support this, which is that some French intensivists found that more patients in the ICU than not had taken ibuprofen prior to hospitalization. There are multiple interpretations to this finding (they were sicker so they were taking more, perhaps they were unhealthy "pill popper" types, so already more at risk, wholly spurious observation, or maybe ibuprofen really does make it worse) There are no studies to support the claiim that NSAIDs increase ACE2 expression, and as I explained above, that is more likely protective than not. Moreover, indomethacin, an NSAID, was found to inhibit SARS-CoV replication during the 2003 SARS epidemic.

That said, my general guidance in acute febrile illnesses is to use medications like NSAIDs and acetaminophen (paracetamol for those of you outside the US) as sparingly as possible and only when the discomfort from the fever is unbearable. There is evidence that BOTH classes of medications suppress the immune response and fever is adaptive and protective.

Asthmatics are at particular risk
Health authority after health authority has made this claim.

Two studies have examined this:(1)(2) and both found that Asthma was surprisingly underreported as a comorbidity. Moreover, in Japan, an asthma medication called ciclesonide (ALVESCO) was found to improve COVID pneumonia. This is not what I would have expected, either, (given that other coronaviruses trigger asthma attacks) but there are the data. Perhaps we will eventually find that asthma is protective (and I am not claiming it is; we have no data to support that claim yet, either). This would not surprise me for some complex immunological reasons having to do with the kind of immune response that people with asthma/allergies tend to mount (called a Th2 response, found to be protective in COVID-19). But for now, asthmatics should still take careful precautions. They can and do still wind up in ICUs, but evidently no more than anyone else.
(1)https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32156648
(2)https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32077115

Children under 15 never get critical disease or die
This is *almost* true. To date three children aged 15 or under have become critically ill and one has died.
*One was an 8yo who had recovered from leukemia less than a year before. His outcome is unclear.
*One was a 14yo and his medical history was not clear. This patient died.
*One was a 1yo who needed mechanical intubation for 5-6 days. I am skeptical that COVID-19 was the cause of the disease here as there are eleventy other respiratory viruses common in temperate climates that would land a child this age on a ventilator for 5-6 days and while he might have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), I suspect that that this virus was just along for the ride and that another virus (parainfulenza, metapneumovirus, adenovirus, coronaviruses OC43, HKU61, 229E, or NL63, RSV, and influenza) was responsible for the child's illness.

That said, severe disease in children is rare and critical illness in children is extremely rare. This disease remains remarkably polite to children. It does infect them and some studies have shown very high copy numbers (amount of virus present) but they very seldom get sick.

The illness is flu-like[/i]
I think this is a dangerous misconception. It is sometimes flu-like. And it is very often very much milder. A bit of a tummy ache and a few loose stools, which you might dismiss as something that you ate not agreeing with you. A vague sense of being hot and cold and tired, which you might dismiss as some variation of the normal state (work, stress, kids). A bit of pain in the chest, as if you did a workout, nothing to worry about. A tickle in the chest and maybe an occasional cough, which you might dismiss as spring allergies. So you go to work. You kiss your elderly parents. You shake hands with business associates and customers. And his is why now studies are saying that as many as 75% of cases go undetected. I suspect that once this is all over we will discover that it's over 90%.

So if you get those little nagging things, don't ignore them. STAY HOME.

[b]There is no immunity and you can get renfected

Particularly in elderly patients, there was an initial finding that they would improve, test negative, and then worsten again. This raised concern for reinfection. But now we know that both humans and primates do make protective antibodies against this coronavirus and others.

So what was going on? A common pattern in critically ill patients was that they would improve and relapse. At first this was taken as reinfection, but the Italian intensivists summarized their experience and repeatedly said: "DO NOT TRUST THE FIRST IMPROVEMENT!! DO NOT BE CAUGHT UNPREPARED!!" The test is only 50-75% sensitive. So it's possible that many of these patients had a false negative test and then relapsed.


Thank you so much for another enlightening post.

I have one question: Am I understanding it correctly that I should not be very worried if I have hypertension and take Candesartan daily? I also have asthma and use Ventoline. I am being extra cautious these days and have self quarantined myself for a week now.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:40 pm
by sebolino
PixelPilot wrote:
scbriml wrote:
sebolino wrote:

Trump is now saying that he knew from the beginning that it would be an epidemic. :-)
Lol, a real master in rewriting history.


Trump is an idiot. I was just watching him live from the White House. In one breath he's complaining that China hid the virus and didn't tell anyone, then he claims he foresaw a pandemic before anyone knew about it, then when asked why America wasn't sufficiently prepared, he goes back to blaming China. :spin:


https://nypost.com/2020/02/29/china-off ... port-says/

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... ialnetwork


https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152

Yep. it's China. Been from the start and now they are running a commie smear campaign and a lot of people on the left are taking the bait or sing to their overlords tune since they pay them maybe or orange man bad?
It really is interesting times that during such distress for a nation people cheer for commie regimes that are brutal and brutal being an understatement.

This guy sums it up perfectly:
https://twitter.com/arslan_hidayat/stat ... 85408?s=20


Sorry guy, but you miss the point completely.
Trump's flip flop is not due to Chinese. You're trying to finger point, which will be done after all that I'm sure, but it's totally pointless and counter productive right now.
Very Trumpish to try to divert attention.

In France, complotists say that it was invented by a French lab ... :-)

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:46 pm
by 94717
Ischgl will forever be in our history books...

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-aus ... continent/

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:48 pm
by tommy1808
slider wrote:
https://twitter.com/YossiGestetner/status/1240524552645554176?s=20

Interesting statistical timeline here and watching how this unfolds. He's been tracking this daily, and benchmarking Italy vs US. Also germane given the massive population disparity between the two.

Here is where Italy/US were at their respective Day 15s:

Italy (March 8th) 366 deaths and NORTH LOCKDOWN.

US (March 18th) 109 deaths.

Italy's death rate was 4.96% (366 deaths out of 7,375 known cases).

The US death rate was 1.62% (150 deaths out of 9,259 known cases).


It's likely that northern italy drives it up, just like in China if you compare the hot zone and outside of it.
Once hospitals are overloaded, and they did triage, things get really bad, really quick.

We are currently doubling ICU beds to 40k with ventilator plus some 10k ICU beds without.
Logic dictates that the German government expects, and Hope's to maintain/limit to 500k infected concurrently.

I would expect we will be there in two to three weeks.

Best regards
Thomas

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:50 pm
by JetBuddy
scbriml wrote:
sebolino wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Unfortunately, despite Trump's best (or worst) efforts, the spread in the US seems to be following the same pattern as just about everywhere else both in terms of cases and deaths.


Trump is now saying that he knew from the beginning that it would be an epidemic. :-)
Lol, a real master in rewriting history.


Trump is an idiot. I was just watching him live from the White House. In one breath he's complaining that China hid the virus and didn't tell anyone, then he claims he foresaw a pandemic before anyone knew about it, then when asked why America wasn't sufficiently prepared, he goes back to blaming China. :spin:


What I don't understand is that in a time of national emergency, a time of crisis - the main stream media seems occupied with speech policing.

China knew this virus was epidemic months ago. They didn't tell anyone. Then when their own doctors tried to raise the alarm, they were arrested.
When the crisis became known, the US offered help in form of doctors and scientists. China didn't answer.
Then China started a propaganda campaign, blaming the virus on Italy and the US. The next step was to threaten the US and the rest of the world with holding back medicine and medical equipment.
Chinese authorities made the whole situation way worse, not only for their own people - but for the rest of the world.

So when Trump says China is to blame, it is the truth. And when media and certain political figures try to police speech, to protect the world's largest tyrannical police state - with hundreds of thousands of people in re-education camps - I could not care less if someone gets offended.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:51 pm
by tommy1808
sebolino wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Trump is an idiot. I was just watching him live from the White House. In one breath he's complaining that China hid the virus and didn't tell anyone, then he claims he foresaw a pandemic before anyone knew about it, then when asked why America wasn't sufficiently prepared, he goes back to blaming China. :spin:


https://nypost.com/2020/02/29/china-off ... port-says/

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... ialnetwork


https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152

Yep. it's China. Been from the start and now they are running a commie smear campaign and a lot of people on the left are taking the bait or sing to their overlords tune since they pay them maybe or orange man bad?
It really is interesting times that during such distress for a nation people cheer for commie regimes that are brutal and brutal being an understatement.

This guy sums it up perfectly:
https://twitter.com/arslan_hidayat/stat ... 85408?s=20


Sorry guy, but you miss the point completely.
Trump's flip flop is not due to Chinese. You're trying to finger point, which will be done after all that I'm sure, but it's totally pointless and counter productive right now.
Very Trumpish to try to divert attention.

In France, complotists say that it was invented by a French lab ... :-)


Well, is is correct about the smear campaign...

Best regards
Thomas

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:53 pm
by tommy1808
JetBuddy wrote:
scbriml wrote:
sebolino wrote:

Trump is now saying that he knew from the beginning that it would be an epidemic. :-)
Lol, a real master in rewriting history.


Trump is an idiot. I was just watching him live from the White House. In one breath he's complaining that China hid the virus and didn't tell anyone, then he claims he foresaw a pandemic before anyone knew about it, then when asked why America wasn't sufficiently prepared, he goes back to blaming China. :spin:


What I don't understand is that in a time of national emergency, a time of crisis - the main stream media seems occupied with speech policing.

China knew this virus was epidemic months ago. They didn't tell anyone. Then when their own doctors tried to raise the alarm, they were arrested.


While really minute in the great scheme of things, i find conflicting information about arrested vs. invited for a stern talking to. Which may be about the same in China.

Best regards
Thomas

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:55 pm
by DLFREEBIRD
dtw2hyd wrote:
We haven't heard much from Africa or South America. What is going on there?



I have a friend in Bogota Columbia they have 89 cases, . i talked to him, yesterday. but yeah it's made it's way there to even small town where his mother lives they have 5 cases in a rather small village. I was surprised, cause they are not covering it much in the states.

if anybody has more information please post.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:57 pm
by Tugger
sebolino wrote:
Trump's flip flop is not due to Chinese. You're trying to finger point, which will be done after all that I'm sure, but it's totally pointless and counter productive right now.
Very Trumpish to try to divert attention.

Well Trump essentially does giv.... err.. point the finger to everyone else but him. :point:

Tugg

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:57 pm
by PixelPilot
sebolino wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Trump is an idiot. I was just watching him live from the White House. In one breath he's complaining that China hid the virus and didn't tell anyone, then he claims he foresaw a pandemic before anyone knew about it, then when asked why America wasn't sufficiently prepared, he goes back to blaming China. :spin:


https://nypost.com/2020/02/29/china-off ... port-says/

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... ialnetwork


https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152

Yep. it's China. Been from the start and now they are running a commie smear campaign and a lot of people on the left are taking the bait or sing to their overlords tune since they pay them maybe or orange man bad?
It really is interesting times that during such distress for a nation people cheer for commie regimes that are brutal and brutal being an understatement.

This guy sums it up perfectly:
https://twitter.com/arslan_hidayat/stat ... 85408?s=20


Sorry guy, but you miss the point completely.
Trump's flip flop is not due to Chinese. You're trying to finger point which will be done after all that I'm sure, but it's totally pointless and counter productive right now.
Very Trumpish to try to divert attention.

In France, complotists say that it was invented by a French lab ... :-)


Divert what? That both dems and reps are doing their work finally? Like they should from the start?
That a lot of VERY OLD red tape needs to be ripped apart so different actions are possible in a system with so many laws in place?
That to speed up response they are allowing private business to cut through that tape and send help sooner? Basically less bureaucracy.
Or maybe that in JANUARY 31 he stopped the traffic from people that been to China to be called racist?
Or you know maybe that he is saying from the START that it is time to be more independent manufacturing wise? LOL this one is pretty solid especially in times like this.

I get it. this is survival and every country right now is in trouble but deflecting facts more won't change anything. Trump is the way he is.
MILES better than the commies that murder people or silence doctors for trying to save the world.

China started it, China hid it, lied about it and now it's trying to play hero while blaming others. I mean I get it.
They might be held responsible for mass genocide if this would turn as deliberate. Gotta smear now so woke / lefties will defend you (Chinas gov not you personally to make it clear) cause orange man bad.

And I don't even like the way Trump speaks!
But I lived in communism and F*** that mindset.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:00 pm
by JetBuddy
tommy1808 wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Trump is an idiot. I was just watching him live from the White House. In one breath he's complaining that China hid the virus and didn't tell anyone, then he claims he foresaw a pandemic before anyone knew about it, then when asked why America wasn't sufficiently prepared, he goes back to blaming China. :spin:


What I don't understand is that in a time of national emergency, a time of crisis - the main stream media seems occupied with speech policing.

China knew this virus was epidemic months ago. They didn't tell anyone. Then when their own doctors tried to raise the alarm, they were arrested.
When the crisis became known, the US offered help in form of doctors and scientists. China didn't answer.
Then China started a propaganda campaign, blaming the virus on Italy and the US. The next step was to threaten the US and the rest of the world with holding back medicine and medical equipment.
Chinese authorities made the whole situation way worse, not only for their own people - but for the rest of the world.

So when Trump says China is to blame, it is the truth. And when media and certain political figures try to police speech, to protect the world's largest tyrannical police state - with hundreds of thousands of people in re-education camps - I could not care less if someone gets offended.


While really minute in the great scheme of things, i find conflicting information about arrested vs. invited for a stern talking to. Which may be about the same in China.

Best regards
Thomas


Not only were doctors arrested, the same thing happened to journalists as well as political figures. Some were released, and some died later on from Coronavirus. Apparantly. Defending China in all of this is the last thing that should be on the priority list for anyone outside the Chinese Communist Party.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:07 pm
by tommy1808
JetBuddy wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:

What I don't understand is that in a time of national emergency, a time of crisis - the main stream media seems occupied with speech policing.

China knew this virus was epidemic months ago. They didn't tell anyone. Then when their own doctors tried to raise the alarm, they were arrested.
When the crisis became known, the US offered help in form of doctors and scientists. China didn't answer.
Then China started a propaganda campaign, blaming the virus on Italy and the US. The next step was to threaten the US and the rest of the world with holding back medicine and medical equipment.
Chinese authorities made the whole situation way worse, not only for their own people - but for the rest of the world.

So when Trump says China is to blame, it is the truth. And when media and certain political figures try to police speech, to protect the world's largest tyrannical police state - with hundreds of thousands of people in re-education camps - I could not care less if someone gets offended.


While really minute in the great scheme of things, i find conflicting information about arrested vs. invited for a stern talking to. Which may be about the same in China.

Best regards
Thomas


Not only were doctors arrested, the same thing happened to journalists as well as political figures. Some were released, and some died later on from Coronavirus. Apparantly. Defending China in all of this is the last thing that should be on the priority list for anyone outside the Chinese Communist Party.


Trying to find out what is fact or fiction has nothing to do with defending anything. Look around the forum, I am pretty much the hardcore PRC critic on this board.

Until a few weeks ago I got laughed at how harsh I would treat them if I could decide that.

Best regards
Thomas

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:11 pm
by Tugger
This is a good overview of the delays created in China of dealing with and managing the outbreak. It also includes and refers to the information included in the Lancet article.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/worl ... virus.html
A reconstruction of the crucial seven weeks between the appearance of the first symptoms in early December and the government’s decision to lock down the city, based on two dozen interviews with Wuhan residents, doctors and officials, on government statements and on Chinese media reports, points to decisions that delayed a concerted public health offensive.
[...]
The first case, the details of which are limited and the specific date unknown, was in early December. By the time the authorities galvanized into action on Jan. 20, the disease had grown into a formidable threat.


Tugg

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:14 pm
by Tugger
PixelPilot wrote:
China started it, China hid it, lied about it and now it's trying to play hero while blaming others. I mean I get it.

US leadership knew it was coming, US leadership deferred and advocated it was no big deal and that many were over reacting, that the media was over-emphasizing its affect, and now US leadership is trying to play hero while blaming others.

I mean I get it. :spin: :wave:

Tugg

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:20 pm
by dtw2hyd
Sorry if this was covered already, at what temperature virus is ineffective on hard surfaces. Say right now outside temp is 40F, is it safe to assume outdoors like a park is virus-free if one maintains distance from other humans.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:28 pm
by PixelPilot
Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
China started it, China hid it, lied about it and now it's trying to play hero while blaming others. I mean I get it.

US leadership knew it was coming, US leadership deferred and advocated it was no big deal and that many were over reacting, that the media was over-emphasizing its affect, and now US leadership is trying to play hero while blaming others.

I mean I get it. :spin: :wave:

Tugg


Saying it this way is fair to mention that everybody knew it was coming so why it hit this hard?
Unless we are at war there are rules and regulations that are in place. Even at war there are rules.
It's not simple just to say oh hey lets close the borders... I mean every time Trump does it he gets lib judges and dems all over him LOL.
I'm not a US voter so I just observe but anybody that blames Trump for how things are is a bit blind or biased if you ask me. You need two to tango and they don't tango in here.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:39 pm
by Cadet985
Aaron747 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
We haven't heard much from Africa or South America. What is going on there?


Most of Africa’s cases have been in Egypt. Many African countries have regular trade links with China, but not large tourist influx - Kenya and South Africa are exceptions, but they have already banned Chinese and European travelers for now. The rapidity of China shutting down travel may have insulated Africa somewhat. Epidemiologists also say it could be difficult to identify any existing cases with mild symptoms because of the large outlay of tropical disease infection always present in equatorial Africa.

Have not heard much about the goings on in South America...


When this thing hits the heart of Africa the number of deaths is going to skyrocket, and there will be little the rest of the world can do since we’re still dealing with it here.

That said, my POV on the virus has turned 180°. I’m actually scared (in addition to being frustrated about being shut in). I also did some thinking about businesses. Here’s what I figured. I can’t see businesses being closed for more than 2-3 weeks. At that point, the economic damage will be so bad that the government would go bankrupt trying to help them. I think we’ll still see schools closed, some form of social distancing, but I’d predict that around Easter, you’ll see businesses opening up, provided they have enough employees...and if they don’t, there will be a large enough applicant pool.

Marc

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:43 pm
by Tugger
PixelPilot wrote:
Saying it this way is fair to mention that everybody knew it was coming so why it hit this hard?
Unless we are at war there are rules and regulations that are in place. Even at war there are rules.
It's not simple just to say oh hey lets close the borders... I mean every time Trump does it he gets lib judges and dems all over him LOL.
I'm not a US voter so I just observe but anybody that blames Trump for how things are is a bit blind or biased if you ask me. You need two to tango and they don't tango in here.

BTW you are the one blaming Trump. I said "leadership" you thought to name Trump.

Tugg