User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18478
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:20 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
So then how can you possibly say that a month of everyone on lockdown will knock this out? You are sending all sorts of mixed messages.


Nobody (who understands this) has said a month of lockdown will "knock this out".

The only purpose of lockdowns is to slow the spread of the virus so medical services stand some chance of coping. Look at all the infection charts - the growth in infections is exponential, if you don't impose restrictions your medical services will be totally overwhelmed in a couple of weeks. You don't want want to see the results of that with an unchecked virus.

You do not want this (ignore the numbers, they're way out of date now):
Image

TTailedTiger wrote:
One thing is for sure. Fear will cause a worldwide depression and many are going to die from violence, suicide, malnourishment, and illnesses that we can treat but won't have the resources anymore.


One other thing is for sure, if you do nothing and let this virus just "run its course" it will cause exactly the same things.

Jouhou wrote:
I think a month lockdown is more intended to keep cases in check so hospitals can feasibly handle the load while we collectively get our shit together.


Exactly this. It seems many simply don't get it.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2058
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:35 am

The FDA should not be in the business of protecting profits for pharmaceutical companies. Especially when the drug was developed using $79 million in government funding. If you really want to stop this virus then the government should demand that remdesivir be made available in generic form. It has been around since 2014. We know the side effects of the drug and we now know that it also has the ability to work on this coronavirus.

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/23/gil ... ug-status/
 
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scbriml
Posts: 18478
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:36 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Fortunately Congress seems to have found its serious shoes again, with the latest version of the aid package covering everyone’s salaries for four months.


Good for them, that almost sounds... socialist. :o :faint:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:23 am

scbriml wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Fortunately Congress seems to have found its serious shoes again, with the latest version of the aid package covering everyone’s salaries for four months.


Good for them, that almost sounds... socialist. :o :faint:


If you can't convince voters, buy them .....

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:25 am

BN747 wrote:
a few days ago that some of Ralph's stores had been gouging ppl for water purchases.


Here we have a law against it to send profiteurs to prison for up to three years. I think more countries need ordnance like that.

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
melpax
Posts: 1979
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:27 am

Here in Australia, the supermarkets are getting back to normal, although things like toilet paper & pasta are still in short supply. Not unsuprising when the level of business they have done was basically 3 weeks straight of every day being like Christmas eve...

Downtown Melbourne is very quiet, Docklands in particular feels like a Sunday every day with most people now working from home. Public transport is now very quiet as a result. Where I work, we have been deemed essential workers (Government Department), but we're expecting to work from home later in the week or early next week. Have been driving in since Friday, while there is still traffic on the roads, it's nowhere near as busy as usual.

Pubs & bars, resturants & coffee shops, and casinos & pokie/slot machine venues were ordered to be closed on Monday, although resturants & coffee shops have been allowed to continue selling on a take-away basis. Some pubs have also moved to sell their meals on a take away & delivery basis as well, those that have attached bottle shops/liquor stores have been allowed to continue to operate those. Gyms were also ordered closed on Monday. The PM has said this could be for up to 6 months. Beauticians were ordered closed as of today, weddings have been restricted to 5 attendees - the 2 people getting married, the 2 required witnesses & the celebrant. Funerals have been restricted to 10 attendees, this also includes any funeral home staff present. Hairdressers & Barbers are still allowed to operate, but they must meet social distancing guidelines (1 person per 4 square metres), and appointments must be no longer than 30 minutes. Outdoor personal training can continue, with a maximum of 10 people, and social distancing must be followed. Shopping mall food courts have also been ordered closed, again, the food outlets are able to operate on a take-out basis.

There is also an international travel ban in place, and 4 states (Tasmania, Western Australia, South Australia & Queensland) now require anyone crossing their state borders to undergo 14 days of quarantine. Unthinkable a month ago.
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
kalvado
Posts: 2496
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:19 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
BN747 wrote:
a few days ago that some of Ralph's stores had been gouging ppl for water purchases.


Here we have a law against it to send profiteurs to prison for up to three years. I think more countries need ordnance like that.

Best regards
Thomas

And what about supply and demand, free enterprise?
Especially for water which still comes from the tap....
 
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par13del
Posts: 9919
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:48 pm

So we have the city on lock down, only essential services staffed, the Mayor reduces the number of trains - supposedly due to staff being out sick and or self isolating - and the result is packed trains filled with the people who are supposed to take care of the ill and keep order in the land.
What could have been done better, hospitals put on alternative modes of transport - bus pooling -, take over some city buses clean them then allocate them to individual health facilities, what, could no one forsee this result?
We can only hope that despite the oath a number of these professionals took, that they eventually realize that they cannot be true to their oath if they open themselves to the infection then pass it on, hospitals are usually not the most healthy environs.

On a side note, this is also why big cities who invest heavily in public transportation should be the most proactive and shut down first. The funny thing is that they are also the easiest to lock down, simply kill the product that you have forced and incentivized them to use.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-52023580
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:02 pm

kalvado wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
BN747 wrote:
a few days ago that some of Ralph's stores had been gouging ppl for water purchases.


Here we have a law against it to send profiteurs to prison for up to three years. I think more countries need ordnance like that.

Best regards
Thomas

And what about supply and demand, free enterprise?.


there are limits to demand driven supply and free enterprise, or we wouldn´t have organized crime... those would be international enterprises.
In this case "Whoever exploits the predicament, inexperience, lack of judgement or considerable weakness of will of another by exploiting himself or a third party...."

best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:07 pm

par13del wrote:
forced ....to use.


the only thing that "forces" people into public transport is that the use of streets growth with the available street capacity, not with population or GDP.

best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9919
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:34 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
forced ....to use.


the only thing that "forces" people into public transport is that the use of streets growth with the available street capacity, not with population or GDP.

best regards
Thomas

I may disagree as we see space found all the time for additional commercial ventures, a few years ago additional green space was the key, but its just an opinion.

Unfortunately, it does not help the situation with persons in the city who rely on public transportation putting themselves at risk by not practicing social distancing.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 17884
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:56 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
The FDA should not be in the business of protecting profits for pharmaceutical companies. Especially when the drug was developed using $79 million in government funding. If you really want to stop this virus then the government should demand that remdesivir be made available in generic form. It has been around since 2014. We know the side effects of the drug and we now know that it also has the ability to work on this coronavirus.

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/23/gil ... ug-status/

Who is this and what did you do with TTailedTiger?
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:06 pm

OK so NYC is the epicenter of this virus in the US. This was to be expected, population density in NYC is the highest across the nation. Mass public transit, connectivity with the world.

So far despite having 16,000 cases in NYC, no reports of hospitals over stressed, lack of ventilators or such, not yet despite the huge number of cases. Mortality rate according to those tested as infected and official death is 1.2%. According to the coronavirus task force, the virus has been circulating in NYC for some weeks now, and to me it seems that those with bad symptoms are the ones looking to get tested. So again, the mortality rate must be over reported.

In the country the mortality rate is hovering around the same amount. We are not seeing Italy's 8-10% here, must be as I said Italy is under testing and that's why the high mortality rate. Germany who seemed to be over testing is getting a mortality rate of 0.5%, increased from yesterdays 0.4%.

Thus far, in my opinion as a layman, the mortality and infected data is extremely incomplete and only shows a picture that can't be completely deduced. There must be thousands if not tens of thousands of people that experience symptoms, or have mild symptoms are are not being tested. Corona virus is not as deadly than it seems. And no definite mortality rate can so far be deduced, only getting the high range number of 1.2% as a reference point.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aesma
Posts: 12515
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:13 pm

It's really strange to see Trump talking about "opening up again" when he never talked about locking down anyway.

Can't undo what you didn't do.

And yes, I know it isn't in his power. Still, he could have been far more assertive, and when the feds really want something, it can happen easily : for example the trillions in help could be reserved for states that did lock down...
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aesma
Posts: 12515
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:20 pm

par13del wrote:
So we have the city on lock down, only essential services staffed, the Mayor reduces the number of trains - supposedly due to staff being out sick and or self isolating - and the result is packed trains filled with the people who are supposed to take care of the ill and keep order in the land.
What could have been done better, hospitals put on alternative modes of transport - bus pooling -, take over some city buses clean them then allocate them to individual health facilities, what, could no one forsee this result?
We can only hope that despite the oath a number of these professionals took, that they eventually realize that they cannot be true to their oath if they open themselves to the infection then pass it on, hospitals are usually not the most healthy environs.

On a side note, this is also why big cities who invest heavily in public transportation should be the most proactive and shut down first. The funny thing is that they are also the easiest to lock down, simply kill the product that you have forced and incentivized them to use.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-52023580


It's an incentive to have automatic metros. In Paris the incentive was already there because of incessant strikes, now that's one more reason.

The French government has also decided to pay taxi/uber rides to medical personnel who need it.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:28 pm

Aesma wrote:
par13del wrote:
So we have the city on lock down, only essential services staffed, the Mayor reduces the number of trains - supposedly due to staff being out sick and or self isolating - and the result is packed trains filled with the people who are supposed to take care of the ill and keep order in the land.
What could have been done better, hospitals put on alternative modes of transport - bus pooling -, take over some city buses clean them then allocate them to individual health facilities, what, could no one forsee this result?
We can only hope that despite the oath a number of these professionals took, that they eventually realize that they cannot be true to their oath if they open themselves to the infection then pass it on, hospitals are usually not the most healthy environs.

On a side note, this is also why big cities who invest heavily in public transportation should be the most proactive and shut down first. The funny thing is that they are also the easiest to lock down, simply kill the product that you have forced and incentivized them to use.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-52023580


It's an incentive to have automatic metros. In Paris the incentive was already there because of incessant strikes, now that's one more reason.

The French government has also decided to pay taxi/uber rides to medical personnel who need it.


What's going on with France, are they doing less tests? or only testing those with bad symptoms? they have a mortality rate of 5%, that's very high.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:32 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
OK so NYC is the epicenter of this virus in the US. This was to be expected, population density in NYC is the highest across the nation. Mass public transit, connectivity with the world.

So far despite having 16,000 cases in NYC, no reports of hospitals over stressed, lack of ventilators or such, not yet despite the huge number of cases. Mortality rate according to those tested as infected and official death is 1.2%. According to the coronavirus task force, the virus has been circulating in NYC for some weeks now, and to me it seems that those with bad symptoms are the ones looking to get tested. So again, the mortality rate must be over reported.


No idea how you can claim this when you have not educated yourself on the situation on the ground in NYC.

https://apnews.com/b08afe589e0d6dae9469 ... _medium=AP

https://twitter.com/MSF_USA/status/1242 ... 27328?s=20

https://twitter.com/cofvino/status/1242 ... 46017?s=20

https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/12 ... 06624?s=20

https://twitter.com/ChristinaKVUE/statu ... 65601?s=20

https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/ ... 18336?s=20

https://twitter.com/meifongwriter/statu ... 43457?s=20

https://twitter.com/HAMunfiltered/statu ... 89120?s=20

https://twitter.com/ErinBanco/status/12 ... 86275?s=20

These people are there, seeing what's happening in the hospitals...you are not.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 4892
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:34 pm

It’s bad now, Waffle Houses are closing!
 
yonahleung
Posts: 60
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:35 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
OK so NYC is the epicenter of this virus in the US. This was to be expected, population density in NYC is the highest across the nation. Mass public transit, connectivity with the world.

So far despite having 16,000 cases in NYC, no reports of hospitals over stressed, lack of ventilators or such, not yet despite the huge number of cases. Mortality rate according to those tested as infected and official death is 1.2%. According to the coronavirus task force, the virus has been circulating in NYC for some weeks now, and to me it seems that those with bad symptoms are the ones looking to get tested. So again, the mortality rate must be over reported.

In the country the mortality rate is hovering around the same amount. We are not seeing Italy's 8-10% here, must be as I said Italy is under testing and that's why the high mortality rate. Germany who seemed to be over testing is getting a mortality rate of 0.5%, increased from yesterdays 0.4%.

Thus far, in my opinion as a layman, the mortality and infected data is extremely incomplete and only shows a picture that can't be completely deduced. There must be thousands if not tens of thousands of people that experience symptoms, or have mild symptoms are are not being tested. Corona virus is not as deadly than it seems. And no definite mortality rate can so far be deduced, only getting the high range number of 1.2% as a reference point.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

I think this has been said numerous time before. The mortality rate depends very much on whether your medical system has been overloaded. If they still have enough ICU beds and ventilators, they will manage OK and can expect mortality rates around or below 1%. Once you passed that threshold and do not have enough ventilators or ICU beds for the serious patients your mortality rate skyrockets to french, spanish or italian levels. This is what drives the lock-down measures.

Lock-down measures will probably be around until either we have an effective treatment or herd immunity based on either infection or vaccination.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:37 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
OK so NYC is the epicenter of this virus in the US. This was to be expected, population density in NYC is the highest across the nation. Mass public transit, connectivity with the world.

So far despite having 16,000 cases in NYC, no reports of hospitals over stressed, lack of ventilators or such, not yet despite the huge number of cases. Mortality rate according to those tested as infected and official death is 1.2%. According to the coronavirus task force, the virus has been circulating in NYC for some weeks now, and to me it seems that those with bad symptoms are the ones looking to get tested. So again, the mortality rate must be over reported.


No idea how you can claim this when you have not educated yourself on the situation on the ground in NYC.

https://apnews.com/b08afe589e0d6dae9469 ... _medium=AP

https://twitter.com/MSF_USA/status/1242 ... 27328?s=20

https://twitter.com/cofvino/status/1242 ... 46017?s=20

https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/12 ... 06624?s=20

These people are there, seeing what's happening in the hospitals...you are not.
https://twitter.com/ChristinaKVUE/statu ... 65601?s=20

https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/ ... 18336?s=20

https://twitter.com/meifongwriter/statu ... 43457?s=20

https://twitter.com/HAMunfiltered/statu ... 89120?s=20

https://twitter.com/ErinBanco/status/12 ... 86275?s=20



Absolutely no chaos no people on the floor, no lack of ventilators, no lack of space in the ICU. Most of the posts are unverified, and this one is not NYC this if fake (this is everyone's future) https://twitter.com/HAMunfiltered/statu ... 89120?s=20

Try to get NYT or any local news outlet to report on this and they haven't. So no, the situation in the ground is not as they feared, at least yet. All is speculation and 'expectation'. Nothing Italyesque on the ground.
Last edited by AirWorthy99 on Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 10973
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:38 pm

yonahleung wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
OK so NYC is the epicenter of this virus in the US. This was to be expected, population density in NYC is the highest across the nation. Mass public transit, connectivity with the world.

So far despite having 16,000 cases in NYC, no reports of hospitals over stressed, lack of ventilators or such, not yet despite the huge number of cases. Mortality rate according to those tested as infected and official death is 1.2%. According to the coronavirus task force, the virus has been circulating in NYC for some weeks now, and to me it seems that those with bad symptoms are the ones looking to get tested. So again, the mortality rate must be over reported.

In the country the mortality rate is hovering around the same amount. We are not seeing Italy's 8-10% here, must be as I said Italy is under testing and that's why the high mortality rate. Germany who seemed to be over testing is getting a mortality rate of 0.5%, increased from yesterdays 0.4%.

Thus far, in my opinion as a layman, the mortality and infected data is extremely incomplete and only shows a picture that can't be completely deduced. There must be thousands if not tens of thousands of people that experience symptoms, or have mild symptoms are are not being tested. Corona virus is not as deadly than it seems. And no definite mortality rate can so far be deduced, only getting the high range number of 1.2% as a reference point.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

I think this has been said numerous time before. The mortality rate depends very much on whether your medical system has been overloaded. If they still have enough ICU beds and ventilators, they will manage OK and can expect mortality rates around or below 1%. Once you passed that threshold and do not have enough ventilators or ICU beds for the serious patients your mortality rate skyrockets to french, spanish or italian levels. This is what drives the lock-down measures.

Lock-down measures will probably be around until either we have an effective treatment or herd immunity based on either infection or vaccination.


Exactly. A lot of people who still don't understand this need to look up the very basics of high school math again:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logarithmic_scale
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 10973
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:40 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
OK so NYC is the epicenter of this virus in the US. This was to be expected, population density in NYC is the highest across the nation. Mass public transit, connectivity with the world.

So far despite having 16,000 cases in NYC, no reports of hospitals over stressed, lack of ventilators or such, not yet despite the huge number of cases. Mortality rate according to those tested as infected and official death is 1.2%. According to the coronavirus task force, the virus has been circulating in NYC for some weeks now, and to me it seems that those with bad symptoms are the ones looking to get tested. So again, the mortality rate must be over reported.


No idea how you can claim this when you have not educated yourself on the situation on the ground in NYC.

https://apnews.com/b08afe589e0d6dae9469 ... _medium=AP

https://twitter.com/MSF_USA/status/1242 ... 27328?s=20

https://twitter.com/cofvino/status/1242 ... 46017?s=20

https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/12 ... 06624?s=20

These people are there, seeing what's happening in the hospitals...you are not.
https://twitter.com/ChristinaKVUE/statu ... 65601?s=20

https://twitter.com/adamhousley/status/ ... 18336?s=20

https://twitter.com/meifongwriter/statu ... 43457?s=20

https://twitter.com/HAMunfiltered/statu ... 89120?s=20

https://twitter.com/ErinBanco/status/12 ... 86275?s=20



Absolutely no chaos no people on the floor, no lack of ventilators, no lack of space in the ICU. Most of the posts are unverified, and this one is not NYC this if fake (this is everyone's future) https://twitter.com/HAMunfiltered/statu ... 89120?s=20

Try to get NYT or any local news outlet to report on this and they haven't. So no, the situation in the ground is not as they feared, at least yet. All is speculation and 'expectation'. Nothing Italyesque on the ground.


One unverified photo invalidates all of the observations of working medical professionals? Man you must distrust people with advanced licenses and degrees as much as 'the hero' does...
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:42 pm

Aaron747 wrote:


These people are there, seeing what's happening in the hospitals...you are not.


You seem to be happy spreading panic, there isn't such things happening, and you posted a twitter post showing 'what its coming', not what's happening. People are freaked out, panicking and are expecting the worse, but nothing worth deeming chaos and overstress is happening in NYC.
We all should be happy things are ok in the ground for now.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
NYCVIE
Posts: 208
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:01 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:42 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
NYCVIE wrote:
kalvado wrote:
I am not saying these have to be treated the same, I am saying there has to be a common asessment method - where "acceptable" and "unacceptable" are somehow defined, and cost and benefit are compared.
It definitely sucks to do that for human lives being at stake, but that is routinely done anyway.
Would we lock down for 2018-2019 season flu? Guess we didn't. Would we lock for 1918 flu today? I suspect yes. What about situations in between?
There has to be some logic behind all these decisions.


You are correct. But the public health crisis we're in now is unlike one we've seen since the 1918 flu. I think people see the "low" death rates and assume that it really cannot be comparable but part of the reason we're seeing those numbers is because of efforts to contain and slow the spread of the virus. China and Italy locked down which is probably helping them to not be in the hundreds of thousands in terms of serious infections (which depending on what you believe China may be). The fact that we're heading towards those numbers even with a lockdown should make one cautious of what the numbers would look like without.

Remember, death is one part of the virus, but anyone can be seriously taken out for weeks. The flu has a vaccine and this does not. This is novel and the flu is not. We don't even have enough reliable data on what immunity looks like for COVID because it literally hasn't been around long enough. If there was a widely available vaccine for COVID-19 there would be no talk of a lockdown. To me, for that very fact it doesn't make any sense to even bring up the flu in any comparison.


I think Italy has actually caused more panic than China. And one thing I see is I think Italy must have cases in the hundreds of thousands, and we are freaking out because their death rate hovers 10%. They either stopped testing mild cases or did not have sufficient test to do large scale testing. if 300,000 people have coronavirus in Italy as one estimate it must be around 2.2%.

As for South Korea its on 1.3% the death rate. Again how about those who were not tested?

China's is 4.0% death rate.

Iran's rate is 7.8% death rate.

Spain is 7.0%.

And Germany is 0.4%!! yes 0.4% in Germany.

This is all over the place, whilst in the US its presently 1.3%
So that's the data coming out.


Right, of course they have far more cases than documented. But the issue is that they already cannot handle the current number of cases they have in the hospitals. Doctors are choosing between who to save and who to let go because they just don't have the resources. That's catastrophic and it would be anywhere but we're talking about a first world country with a world class healthcare system. That is something I think many people would want to avoid in the United States. Spain is already heading in that direction and the US is not much further behind.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:44 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:



Absolutely no chaos no people on the floor, no lack of ventilators, no lack of space in the ICU. Most of the posts are unverified, and this one is not NYC this if fake (this is everyone's future) https://twitter.com/HAMunfiltered/statu ... 89120?s=20

Try to get NYT or any local news outlet to report on this and they haven't. So no, the situation in the ground is not as they feared, at least yet. All is speculation and 'expectation'. Nothing Italyesque on the ground.


One unverified photo invalidates all of the observations of working medical professionals? Man you must distrust people with advanced licenses and degrees as much as 'the hero' does...


You are posting unverified accounts, how can you trust those posts are not from someone in Russia and in China?

NYT has a live feed from their local news, they haven't reported not a single issue at their hospitals.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7887
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:45 pm

melpax wrote:
Here in Australia, the supermarkets are getting back to normal, although things like toilet paper & pasta are still in short supply.


Read Costco in the USA is not accepting returns on TP, Water, Rice, Pasta, and wipes. Good job Costco. So good luck to those who are hoarding more than they need and wanted to resell. Looks like a donation is the only option or wait until Holloween and use to for decoration.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 10973
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:50 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:


These people are there, seeing what's happening in the hospitals...you are not.


You seem to be happy spreading panic, there isn't such things happening, and you posted a twitter post showing 'what its coming', not what's happening. People are freaked out, panicking and are expecting the worse, but nothing worth deeming chaos and overstress is happening in NYC.
We all should be happy things are ok in the ground for now.


Not panic - reality. Medical professionals have far less incentive than politicians to lie, no? You are claiming things are hunky-dory on the ground in NYC without evidence, and getting snutty when accounts of what's actually happening are different than your claims. The burden of proof is on you. If you can find articles saying this is not happening, I will gladly stand corrected, because my heart already goes out to these medical professionals working their tails off for strangers and neighbors. Here's a range of sources to spread out the perceived bias:

https://www.jems.com/2020/03/25/inside- ... tal-2020-3

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus- ... c-hospital

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/t ... g/2343208/

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-c ... 1585059601

https://www.mediaite.com/news/nyc-docto ... -thinking/
Last edited by Aaron747 on Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 4892
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:52 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:


Absolutely no chaos no people on the floor, no lack of ventilators, no lack of space in the ICU. Most of the posts are unverified, and this one is not NYC this if fake (this is everyone's future) https://twitter.com/HAMunfiltered/statu ... 89120?s=20

Try to get NYT or any local news outlet to report on this and they haven't. So no, the situation in the ground is not as they feared, at least yet. All is speculation and 'expectation'. Nothing Italyesque on the ground.


One unverified photo invalidates all of the observations of working medical professionals? Man you must distrust people with advanced licenses and degrees as much as 'the hero' does...


You are posting unverified accounts, how can you trust those posts are not from someone in Russia and in China?

NYT has a live feed from their local news, they haven't reported not a single issue at their hospitals.


Because their hero Alinsky said to do so,

The Rules

"Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have."
"Never go outside the expertise of your people."
"Whenever possible go outside the expertise of the enemy."
"Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules."
"Ridicule is man's most potent weapon."
"A good tactic is one your people enjoy."
"A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag."
"Keep the pressure on."
"The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself."
"The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition."
"If you push a negative hard and deep enough it will break through into its counterside."
"The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative."
"Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it."

Panicking the public is what the media needs, as do the politicians. No panic, no power.
Last edited by GalaxyFlyer on Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8894
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:53 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
So far despite having 16,000 cases in NYC, no reports of hospitals over stressed, lack of ventilators or such, not yet despite the huge number of cases.

Exponential growth

You do realize that with this virus doubling every 2-3 days in NYC it's going to be 128,000 in 6-9 days? And then 1,024,000 another 6-9 days after that.

Or it won't if lockdown slows that spread rate.

I can see your point of view in many of your posts but I don't know why you keep picking a single moment in the present and ignore trajectories. Furthermore, I don't see how you can say something is not a big deal and overblown considering we have taken drastic measures to reduce the spread. If we did nothing, would we be at 16,000 cases today? Do you think it's going to be 16,000 cases a week from now?
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 10973
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:54 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

One unverified photo invalidates all of the observations of working medical professionals? Man you must distrust people with advanced licenses and degrees as much as 'the hero' does...


You are posting unverified accounts, how can you trust those posts are not from someone in Russia and in China?

NYT has a live feed from their local news, they haven't reported not a single issue at their hospitals.


Because their hero Alinsky said to do so,

The Rules[edit]
"Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have."
"Never go outside the expertise of your people."
"Whenever possible go outside the expertise of the enemy."
"Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules."
"Ridicule is man's most potent weapon."
"A good tactic is one your people enjoy."
"A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag."
"Keep the pressure on."
"The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself."
"The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition."
"If you push a negative hard and deep enough it will break through into its counterside."
"The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative."
"Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it."


Who is 'their'...?? :boggled: :boggled: :boggled:
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:54 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:


These people are there, seeing what's happening in the hospitals...you are not.


You seem to be happy spreading panic, there isn't such things happening, and you posted a twitter post showing 'what its coming', not what's happening. People are freaked out, panicking and are expecting the worse, but nothing worth deeming chaos and overstress is happening in NYC.
We all should be happy things are ok in the ground for now.


Not panic - reality. Medical professionals have far less incentive than politicians to lie, no? You are claiming things are hunky-dory on the ground in NYC without evidence, and getting snutty when accounts of what's actually happening are different than your claims. The burden of proof is on you. Here's a range of sources to spread out the perceived bias:

https://www.jems.com/2020/03/25/inside- ... tal-2020-3

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus- ... c-hospital

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/t ... g/2343208/

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-c ... 1585059601

https://www.mediaite.com/news/nyc-docto ... -thinking/


Again, warnings, expectations, and preparations. Nothing going on as we speak. All is fear and panic for the future. No one is lying, everyone is over reacting so that the problem won't get worse. Its normal.

Living in Florida my entire life I have experienced this every hurricane season, we over react expecting the worse, so if things get bad we are prepared. Most of the time we over react and nothing happens.

I agree we should over react with coronavirus, but the reality is that on the ground nothing is happening. And none of your links show the opposite of that.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 10973
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:56 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
So far despite having 16,000 cases in NYC, no reports of hospitals over stressed, lack of ventilators or such, not yet despite the huge number of cases.

Exponential growth

You do realize that with this virus doubling every 2-3 days in NYC it's going to be 128,000 in 6-9 days? And then 1,024,000 another 6-9 days after that.

Or it won't if lockdown slows that spread rate.

I can see your point of view in many of your posts but I don't know why you keep picking a single moment in the present and ignore trajectories. Furthermore, I don't see how you can say something is not a big deal and overblown considering we have taken drastic measures to reduce the spread. If we did nothing, would we be at 16,000 cases today? Do you think it's going to be 16,000 cases a week from now?


Yes! These folks must all have been asleep the week logarithms were covered in Algebra I. :sarcastic:
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:56 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
So far despite having 16,000 cases in NYC, no reports of hospitals over stressed, lack of ventilators or such, not yet despite the huge number of cases.

Exponential growth

You do realize that with this virus doubling every 2-3 days in NYC it's going to be 128,000 in 6-9 days? And then 1,024,000 another 6-9 days after that.

Or it won't if lockdown slows that spread rate.

I can see your point of view in many of your posts but I don't know why you keep picking a single moment in the present and ignore trajectories. Furthermore, I don't see how you can say something is not a big deal and overblown considering we have taken drastic measures to reduce the spread. If we did nothing, would we be at 16,000 cases today? Do you think it's going to be 16,000 cases a week from now?


I agree, we should over react in preparing our facilities and telling the populace to prepare. But the reality is that on the ground, thus far with 16K + cases, we are not seeing Italy. At least not yet.

And here is hoping it doesn't, yes they should prepare for the worse, that's good, but so far nothing is going on. That might change though.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 10973
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

You seem to be happy spreading panic, there isn't such things happening, and you posted a twitter post showing 'what its coming', not what's happening. People are freaked out, panicking and are expecting the worse, but nothing worth deeming chaos and overstress is happening in NYC.
We all should be happy things are ok in the ground for now.


Not panic - reality. Medical professionals have far less incentive than politicians to lie, no? You are claiming things are hunky-dory on the ground in NYC without evidence, and getting snutty when accounts of what's actually happening are different than your claims. The burden of proof is on you. Here's a range of sources to spread out the perceived bias:

https://www.jems.com/2020/03/25/inside- ... tal-2020-3

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus- ... c-hospital

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/t ... g/2343208/

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-c ... 1585059601

https://www.mediaite.com/news/nyc-docto ... -thinking/


Again, warnings, expectations, and preparations. Nothing going on as we speak. All is fear and panic for the future. No one is lying, everyone is over reacting so that the problem won't get worse. Its normal.

Living in Florida my entire life I have experienced this every hurricane season, we over react expecting the worse, so if things get bad we are prepared. Most of the time we over react and nothing happens.

I agree we should over react with coronavirus, but the reality is that on the ground nothing is happening. And none of your links show the opposite of that.


This is a colossal straw man argument. Hurricanes can be TRACKED BY SATELLITE with tracks then modeled in degrees of certainty every 4-6 hours. The discussion and comparisons end there. You still have not backed up your claim that 'nothing is going on' and everything is fine on the ground in NYC.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:01 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Not panic - reality. Medical professionals have far less incentive than politicians to lie, no? You are claiming things are hunky-dory on the ground in NYC without evidence, and getting snutty when accounts of what's actually happening are different than your claims. The burden of proof is on you. Here's a range of sources to spread out the perceived bias:

https://www.jems.com/2020/03/25/inside- ... tal-2020-3

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus- ... c-hospital

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/t ... g/2343208/

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-c ... 1585059601

https://www.mediaite.com/news/nyc-docto ... -thinking/


Again, warnings, expectations, and preparations. Nothing going on as we speak. All is fear and panic for the future. No one is lying, everyone is over reacting so that the problem won't get worse. Its normal.

Living in Florida my entire life I have experienced this every hurricane season, we over react expecting the worse, so if things get bad we are prepared. Most of the time we over react and nothing happens.

I agree we should over react with coronavirus, but the reality is that on the ground nothing is happening. And none of your links show the opposite of that.


This is a colossal straw man argument. Hurricanes can be TRACKED BY SATELLITE with tracks then modeled in degrees of certainty every 4-6 hours. The discussion and comparisons end there. You still have not backed up your claim that 'nothing is going on' and everything is fine on the ground in NYC.


What? and you haven't backed up the contrary? you are posting fake news (one link) with an image of a place that's not NY. I am reading the live feed from NY on their local news:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

Nothing about chaos in their hospitals, at least yet and they are liberal and only post verified accounts.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 10973
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:08 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Again, warnings, expectations, and preparations. Nothing going on as we speak. All is fear and panic for the future. No one is lying, everyone is over reacting so that the problem won't get worse. Its normal.

Living in Florida my entire life I have experienced this every hurricane season, we over react expecting the worse, so if things get bad we are prepared. Most of the time we over react and nothing happens.

I agree we should over react with coronavirus, but the reality is that on the ground nothing is happening. And none of your links show the opposite of that.


This is a colossal straw man argument. Hurricanes can be TRACKED BY SATELLITE with tracks then modeled in degrees of certainty every 4-6 hours. The discussion and comparisons end there. You still have not backed up your claim that 'nothing is going on' and everything is fine on the ground in NYC.


What? and you haven't backed up the contrary? you are posting fake news (one link) with an image of a place that's not NY. I am reading the live feed from NY on their local news:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

Nothing about chaos in their hospitals, at least yet and they are liberal and only post verified accounts.


Denial is not a good look.

https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus- ... lood-wards

https://gothamist.com/news/healthcare-w ... s-covid-19

Healthcare workers across New York City are bracing for a surge in COVID-19 patients who need hospital care. But they are already seeing shortages of supplies and staff as their colleagues test positive for the virus, and while patients displaying flu-like symptoms continue to crowd emergency rooms.

“Everything is being rationed,” said one nurse in a Queens hospital whose floor was just converted to the first COVID-19 floor, and is now full with two dozen patients.

“We went from donning and doffing gowns, only in the patient room, to being told we can wear the same gown in two positive-Corona patients rooms,” said the nurse, who like many we spoke to asked us to withhold their names because they are not authorized to speak to the press. “Supplies are running short. N95s are running short, those are being rationed.”

The nurse said they may add more beds in the ward she works and two more floors in the hospital will be converted in the coming days. Patients who need critical or intensive care are whisked away to intensive care at different parts of the hospital, while “they had 100 people down in the emergency room needing to come up” to her floor, the nurse said.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 12515
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:10 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
What's going on with France, are they doing less tests? or only testing those with bad symptoms? they have a mortality rate of 5%, that's very high.


The chemicals needed for the test are in short supply so you don't get tested if there are good chances you won't need hospitalization. The exception is the hospital of Dr Raoult, the one who's done a study on chloroquine, he tests everyone that presents with a fever, as a result there are long queues outside the hospital...

An uncle of mine is getting tested because he was already in bad shape (Parkinson's) and is hospitalized.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 10973
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:12 pm

Aesma wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
What's going on with France, are they doing less tests? or only testing those with bad symptoms? they have a mortality rate of 5%, that's very high.


The chemicals needed for the test are in short supply so you don't get tested if there are good chances you won't need hospitalization. The exception is the hospital of Dr Raoult, the one who's done a study on chloroquine, he tests everyone that presents with a fever, as a result there are long queues outside the hospital...

An uncle of mine is getting tested because he was already in bad shape (Parkinson's) and is hospitalized.


Reagent supply shortages are a huge problem in the US as well and are as yet unresolved.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-des ... ytime-soon
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:13 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

This is a colossal straw man argument. Hurricanes can be TRACKED BY SATELLITE with tracks then modeled in degrees of certainty every 4-6 hours. The discussion and comparisons end there. You still have not backed up your claim that 'nothing is going on' and everything is fine on the ground in NYC.


What? and you haven't backed up the contrary? you are posting fake news (one link) with an image of a place that's not NY. I am reading the live feed from NY on their local news:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

Nothing about chaos in their hospitals, at least yet and they are liberal and only post verified accounts.


Denial is not a good look.

https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus- ... lood-wards

https://gothamist.com/news/healthcare-w ... s-covid-19

Healthcare workers across New York City are bracing for a surge in COVID-19 patients who need hospital care. But they are already seeing shortages of supplies and staff as their colleagues test positive for the virus, and while patients displaying flu-like symptoms continue to crowd emergency rooms.

“Everything is being rationed,” said one nurse in a Queens hospital whose floor was just converted to the first COVID-19 floor, and is now full with two dozen patients.

“We went from donning and doffing gowns, only in the patient room, to being told we can wear the same gown in two positive-Corona patients rooms,” said the nurse, who like many we spoke to asked us to withhold their names because they are not authorized to speak to the press. “Supplies are running short. N95s are running short, those are being rationed.”

The nurse said they may add more beds in the ward she works and two more floors in the hospital will be converted in the coming days. Patients who need critical or intensive care are whisked away to intensive care at different parts of the hospital, while “they had 100 people down in the emergency room needing to come up” to her floor, the nurse said.


I think you are confusing things here, running out, bracing, these are not the same things as 'no space' 'ICU full', 'sick people on the hallways on the ground'. Etc.

If for you this is chaos, than what's going to happen if things get bad what would it be?

We have been fixed on the news from Italy and recently Spain, what's going on in NYC is absolutely not that.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:17 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

What? and you haven't backed up the contrary? you are posting fake news (one link) with an image of a place that's not NY. I am reading the live feed from NY on their local news:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

Nothing about chaos in their hospitals, at least yet and they are liberal and only post verified accounts.


Denial is not a good look.

https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus- ... lood-wards

https://gothamist.com/news/healthcare-w ... s-covid-19

Healthcare workers across New York City are bracing for a surge in COVID-19 patients who need hospital care. But they are already seeing shortages of supplies and staff as their colleagues test positive for the virus, and while patients displaying flu-like symptoms continue to crowd emergency rooms.

“Everything is being rationed,” said one nurse in a Queens hospital whose floor was just converted to the first COVID-19 floor, and is now full with two dozen patients.

“We went from donning and doffing gowns, only in the patient room, to being told we can wear the same gown in two positive-Corona patients rooms,” said the nurse, who like many we spoke to asked us to withhold their names because they are not authorized to speak to the press. “Supplies are running short. N95s are running short, those are being rationed.”

The nurse said they may add more beds in the ward she works and two more floors in the hospital will be converted in the coming days. Patients who need critical or intensive care are whisked away to intensive care at different parts of the hospital, while “they had 100 people down in the emergency room needing to come up” to her floor, the nurse said.


I think you are confusing things here, running out, bracing, these are not the same things as 'no space' 'ICU full', 'sick people on the hallways on the ground'. Etc.

If for you this is chaos, than what's going to happen if things get bad what would it be?

We have been fixed on the news from Italy and recently Spain, what's going on in NYC is absolutely not that.



Do you even pay attention to the numbers of sick in NYC? It is rapidly climbing. THey are rationing because they are on the edge of overflow, and the wave of the sick is still surging.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:17 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
What's going on with France, are they doing less tests? or only testing those with bad symptoms? they have a mortality rate of 5%, that's very high.


The chemicals needed for the test are in short supply so you don't get tested if there are good chances you won't need hospitalization. The exception is the hospital of Dr Raoult, the one who's done a study on chloroquine, he tests everyone that presents with a fever, as a result there are long queues outside the hospital...

An uncle of mine is getting tested because he was already in bad shape (Parkinson's) and is hospitalized.


Reagent supply shortages are a huge problem in the US as well and are as yet unresolved.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-des ... ytime-soon


And yet the US is testing more than any country on earth right now. Again, more to cause panic, chaos, fear.

There is absolutely no lack of testing in NYC, and it seems that some in Europe have ran out of tests, even if they many of their nations have tested fewer people than the US. Not testing was one of the things more criticized of the US, in less than a week we are now testing more than anywhere. Because both public and private enterprise have unified efforts here.

The mortality rate out of Europe can't be used as reference. They are not testing as aggressively as we are right now.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:18 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Denial is not a good look.

https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus- ... lood-wards

https://gothamist.com/news/healthcare-w ... s-covid-19

Healthcare workers across New York City are bracing for a surge in COVID-19 patients who need hospital care. But they are already seeing shortages of supplies and staff as their colleagues test positive for the virus, and while patients displaying flu-like symptoms continue to crowd emergency rooms.

“Everything is being rationed,” said one nurse in a Queens hospital whose floor was just converted to the first COVID-19 floor, and is now full with two dozen patients.

“We went from donning and doffing gowns, only in the patient room, to being told we can wear the same gown in two positive-Corona patients rooms,” said the nurse, who like many we spoke to asked us to withhold their names because they are not authorized to speak to the press. “Supplies are running short. N95s are running short, those are being rationed.”

The nurse said they may add more beds in the ward she works and two more floors in the hospital will be converted in the coming days. Patients who need critical or intensive care are whisked away to intensive care at different parts of the hospital, while “they had 100 people down in the emergency room needing to come up” to her floor, the nurse said.


I think you are confusing things here, running out, bracing, these are not the same things as 'no space' 'ICU full', 'sick people on the hallways on the ground'. Etc.

If for you this is chaos, than what's going to happen if things get bad what would it be?

We have been fixed on the news from Italy and recently Spain, what's going on in NYC is absolutely not that.



Do you even pay attention to the numbers of sick in NYC? It is rapidly climbing. THey are rationing because they are on the edge of overflow, and the wave of the sick is still surging.



Where are you getting these numbers? link please.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:21 pm

The funny thing is come 6-7 days from now we could be looking at this thing being on its way to being over with if NY State finds these medication trials end up working. The sample size on them is not exactly small to this point and they are aware that SARS showed promise when treated with chloroquine back in 2002.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:21 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

I think you are confusing things here, running out, bracing, these are not the same things as 'no space' 'ICU full', 'sick people on the hallways on the ground'. Etc.

If for you this is chaos, than what's going to happen if things get bad what would it be?

We have been fixed on the news from Italy and recently Spain, what's going on in NYC is absolutely not that.



Do you even pay attention to the numbers of sick in NYC? It is rapidly climbing. THey are rationing because they are on the edge of overflow, and the wave of the sick is still surging.



Where are you getting these numbers? link please.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And from a friend that is a Nurse in NYC .
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:24 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Do you even pay attention to the numbers of sick in NYC? It is rapidly climbing. THey are rationing because they are on the edge of overflow, and the wave of the sick is still surging.



Where are you getting these numbers? link please.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And from a friend that is a Nurse in NYC .


Nope, being positive for coronavirus doesn't mean you get hospitalized. You need to get data saying X number are hospitalized, X number are in ICU. There isn't such data available. I am sure soon there would be. But anecdotal comments from nurses saying there are a lot of people doesn't mean that there is chaos. Like I said, more likely there will eventually come to that soon.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aesma
Posts: 12515
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:25 pm

yonahleung wrote:
I think this has been said numerous time before. The mortality rate depends very much on whether your medical system has been overloaded. If they still have enough ICU beds and ventilators, they will manage OK and can expect mortality rates around or below 1%. Once you passed that threshold and do not have enough ventilators or ICU beds for the serious patients your mortality rate skyrockets to french, spanish or italian levels. This is what drives the lock-down measures.

Lock-down measures will probably be around until either we have an effective treatment or herd immunity based on either infection or vaccination.


I'll add nursing homes. If the virus gets in one, it can get bad, quickly. And many of these people have DNR or are too frail to be intubated, so that causes a spike in mortality.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:27 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:


Where are you getting these numbers? link please.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And from a friend that is a Nurse in NYC .


Nope, being positive for coronavirus doesn't mean you get hospitalized. You need to get data saying X number are hospitalized, X number are in ICU. There isn't such data available. I am sure soon there would be. But anecdotal comments from nurses saying there are a lot of people doesn't mean that there is chaos. Like I said, more likely there will eventually come to that soon.


Some states will have blood tests to check for antibodies within a week. Blood banks will need them soon anyway because there is major risk at the moment of receiving a blood transfusion if you are immunocompromised since the donor COULD unknowingly have COVID19 and COVID19 antibodies. I donated blood 10 or so years back and got called a week or so later saying my blood sample was not usable because it had West Nile antibodies. I had no idea I was ever sick.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:34 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Not panic - reality. Medical professionals have far less incentive than politicians to lie, no? You are claiming things are hunky-dory on the ground in NYC without evidence, and getting snutty when accounts of what's actually happening are different than your claims. The burden of proof is on you. Here's a range of sources to spread out the perceived bias:

https://www.jems.com/2020/03/25/inside- ... tal-2020-3

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus- ... c-hospital

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/t ... g/2343208/

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus ... story.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-c ... 1585059601

https://www.mediaite.com/news/nyc-docto ... -thinking/


Again, warnings, expectations, and preparations. Nothing going on as we speak. All is fear and panic for the future. No one is lying, everyone is over reacting so that the problem won't get worse. Its normal.

Living in Florida my entire life I have experienced this every hurricane season, we over react expecting the worse, so if things get bad we are prepared. Most of the time we over react and nothing happens.

I agree we should over react with coronavirus, but the reality is that on the ground nothing is happening. And none of your links show the opposite of that.


This is a colossal straw man argument. Hurricanes can be TRACKED BY SATELLITE with tracks then modeled in degrees of certainty every 4-6 hours. The discussion and comparisons end there. You still have not backed up your claim that 'nothing is going on' and everything is fine on the ground in NYC.


Just wait for "those dead in NY didn't really die of Covid-19", like some right wing genocidal maniacs already try for Italy.

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:34 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:


Where are you getting these numbers? link please.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And from a friend that is a Nurse in NYC .


Nope, being positive for coronavirus doesn't mean you get hospitalized. You need to get data saying X number are hospitalized, X number are in ICU. There isn't such data available. I am sure soon there would be. But anecdotal comments from nurses saying there are a lot of people doesn't mean that there is chaos. Like I said, more likely there will eventually come to that soon.


https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/makeshift ... -hospital/

Just keep up the denial on your side.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coron ... 2020-03-23

Eventually you will talk about how it isn't a real crisis till patients are jumping fro windows right?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:37 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And from a friend that is a Nurse in NYC .


Nope, being positive for coronavirus doesn't mean you get hospitalized. You need to get data saying X number are hospitalized, X number are in ICU. There isn't such data available. I am sure soon there would be. But anecdotal comments from nurses saying there are a lot of people doesn't mean that there is chaos. Like I said, more likely there will eventually come to that soon.


https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/makeshift ... -hospital/

Just keep up the denial on your side.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coron ... 2020-03-23

Eventually you will talk about how it isn't a real crisis till patients are jumping fro windows right?


Look, I am not saying things will get bad, the point I am trying to make, they are not bad now.

They are preparing as we speak for the worse, and your links only show preparations for the worse. Not situations at present time.

Like I said things are to get bad, but so far they aren't.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister

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