User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:42 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Nope, being positive for coronavirus doesn't mean you get hospitalized. You need to get data saying X number are hospitalized, X number are in ICU. There isn't such data available. I am sure soon there would be. But anecdotal comments from nurses saying there are a lot of people doesn't mean that there is chaos. Like I said, more likely there will eventually come to that soon.


https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/makeshift ... -hospital/

Just keep up the denial on your side.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coron ... 2020-03-23

Eventually you will talk about how it isn't a real crisis till patients are jumping fro windows right?


Look, I am not saying things will get bad, the point I am trying to make, they are not bad now.

They are preparing as we speak for the worse, and your links only show preparations for the worse. Not situations at present time.

Like I said things are to get bad, but so far they aren't.


They are bad. I know people working there, and they are getting worse.
you don't park Morgue Trucks and Trailers unless you see the need as a hospital administrator.

Remember, these cases are all getting worse, and the worst symptoms come on the 7th and 8th day , with death another 5-8 days out.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:44 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/makeshift ... -hospital/

Just keep up the denial on your side.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coron ... 2020-03-23

Eventually you will talk about how it isn't a real crisis till patients are jumping fro windows right?


Look, I am not saying things will get bad, the point I am trying to make, they are not bad now.

They are preparing as we speak for the worse, and your links only show preparations for the worse. Not situations at present time.

Like I said things are to get bad, but so far they aren't.


They are bad. I know people working there, and they are getting worse.
you don't park Morgue Trucks and Trailers unless you see the need as a hospital administrator.

Remember, these cases are all getting worse, and the worst symptoms come on the 7th and 8th day , with death another 5-8 days out.


The morgue trucks were planned days ago, to prepare, and saying they are bad is not evidence.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 10973
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:46 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/makeshift ... -hospital/

Just keep up the denial on your side.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coron ... 2020-03-23

Eventually you will talk about how it isn't a real crisis till patients are jumping fro windows right?


Look, I am not saying things will get bad, the point I am trying to make, they are not bad now.

They are preparing as we speak for the worse, and your links only show preparations for the worse. Not situations at present time.

Like I said things are to get bad, but so far they aren't.


They are bad. I know people working there, and they are getting worse.
you don't park Morgue Trucks and Trailers unless you see the need as a hospital administrator.

Remember, these cases are all getting worse, and the worst symptoms come on the 7th and 8th day , with death another 5-8 days out.


It's stunning that people can't read simple logarithmic scales:

Image
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:54 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Look, I am not saying things will get bad, the point I am trying to make, they are not bad now.

They are preparing as we speak for the worse, and your links only show preparations for the worse. Not situations at present time.

Like I said things are to get bad, but so far they aren't.


They are bad. I know people working there, and they are getting worse.
you don't park Morgue Trucks and Trailers unless you see the need as a hospital administrator.

Remember, these cases are all getting worse, and the worst symptoms come on the 7th and 8th day , with death another 5-8 days out.


It's stunning that people can't read simple logarithmic scales:

Image


It is sad. Some people probably can't even read a linear scale.

Here is a link showing the daily progression of the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


We will probably have 300-400 deaths today in the US.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:55 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Look, I am not saying things will get bad, the point I am trying to make, they are not bad now.

They are preparing as we speak for the worse, and your links only show preparations for the worse. Not situations at present time.

Like I said things are to get bad, but so far they aren't.


They are bad. I know people working there, and they are getting worse.
you don't park Morgue Trucks and Trailers unless you see the need as a hospital administrator.

Remember, these cases are all getting worse, and the worst symptoms come on the 7th and 8th day , with death another 5-8 days out.


The morgue trucks were planned days ago, to prepare, and saying they are bad is not evidence.


Ok , enjoy that river trip on de nile.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8894
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:01 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Look, I am not saying things will get bad, the point I am trying to make, they are not bad now.

They are preparing as we speak for the worse, and your links only show preparations for the worse. Not situations at present time.

Like I said things are to get bad, but so far they aren't.


They are bad. I know people working there, and they are getting worse.
you don't park Morgue Trucks and Trailers unless you see the need as a hospital administrator.

Remember, these cases are all getting worse, and the worst symptoms come on the 7th and 8th day , with death another 5-8 days out.


It's stunning that people can't read simple logarithmic scales:

Image

And I don't get how people are blindsided by "oh wow that really exploded!"

Whatever amount of cases is "a lot" in their mind, guess what, it'll be twice "a lot" in 2-3 days!

And it's not like this growth is random. A simple calculator can tell you "it's not gonna be bad. . . . . Still not bad, ok kinda a lot, woah a lot, oh shit that's a ton, omg where did this come from?!"
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:12 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

They are bad. I know people working there, and they are getting worse.
you don't park Morgue Trucks and Trailers unless you see the need as a hospital administrator.

Remember, these cases are all getting worse, and the worst symptoms come on the 7th and 8th day , with death another 5-8 days out.


It's stunning that people can't read simple logarithmic scales:

Image

And I don't get how people are blindsided by "oh wow that really exploded!"

Whatever amount of cases is "a lot" in their mind, guess what, it'll be twice "a lot" in 2-3 days!


The "do nothing" estimate for the United States was 2.2 Million, wasn't it? Apparently that isn't a lot to them.

Probably until the very moment they need a ventilator, and don't get one because a younger patient with better chance of survival and an outlook on quicker recovery comes in.

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9919
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:15 pm

So what is the issue, someone saying that NYC does not have 5,000 deaths at this time or someone saying that NYC is going to have 5,000 deaths sometime in the future or someone else saying that NYC should get ready for 5,000 deaths?
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8894
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:24 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

It's stunning that people can't read simple logarithmic scales:

Image

And I don't get how people are blindsided by "oh wow that really exploded!"

Whatever amount of cases is "a lot" in their mind, guess what, it'll be twice "a lot" in 2-3 days!


The "do nothing" estimate for the United States was 2.2 Million, wasn't it? Apparently that isn't a lot to them.

Probably until the very moment they need a ventilator, and don't get one because a younger patient with better chance of survival and an outlook on quicker recovery comes in.

Best regards
Thomas

There is a phrase in English, I'm sure you've heard it or maybe there is a similar saying in Deutsch: "some people have to learn the hard way"

That's why so many states are locking down when infections are jumping. Well guess what, you waited too late and sick people are going to continue to sky rocket even with 100% lockdown

Honestly, at least with America, this coronavirus is a catch 22 (or maybe not but something similar.) If we put in good lockdown measures and really slowed this virus, people would keep using the stupid "the cold kills more people, we don't need a lock down next time" argument. If we don't lockdown and it kills many people, well, then it's too late. There doesn't seem to be a scenario where people understand how bad this could be, take proper precautions, and acknowledge they took good measures instead of just overreacting
 
kalvado
Posts: 2496
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:26 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
Whatever amount of cases is "a lot" in their mind, guess what, it'll be twice "a lot" in 2-3 days!


The "do nothing" estimate for the United States was 2.2 Million, wasn't it? Apparently that isn't a lot to them.

Probably until the very moment they need a ventilator, and don't get one because a younger patient with better chance of survival and an outlook on quicker recovery comes in.

Best regards
Thomas

Only problem with this logic is that once you need a ventilator for this disease, you have a 50% chance of serious post-effects and 50% chance of death anyway.
And I don't know about you, but I long since realized I may end up on a wrong side of triage tarp at some point... That happened a few years after I learned that there is no Santa.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:27 pm

Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:

More than 3,800 people are currently hospitalized, or 12 percent of all confirmed cases. Of those, 888 people are currently in intensive care.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:31 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
And I don't get how people are blindsided by "oh wow that really exploded!"

Whatever amount of cases is "a lot" in their mind, guess what, it'll be twice "a lot" in 2-3 days!


The "do nothing" estimate for the United States was 2.2 Million, wasn't it? Apparently that isn't a lot to them.

Probably until the very moment they need a ventilator, and don't get one because a younger patient with better chance of survival and an outlook on quicker recovery comes in.

Best regards
Thomas

There is a phrase in English, I'm sure you've heard it or maybe there is a similar saying in Deutsch: "some people have to learn the hard way"


We got that, even quite literally, "auf die harte Tour lernen". I would be surprised if not pretty much all languages have something equivalent.

That's why so many states are locking down when infections are jumping. Well guess what, you waited too late and sick people are going to continue to sky rocket even with 100% lockdown

Honestly, at least with America, this coronavirus is a catch 22 (or maybe not but something similar.) If we put in good lockdown measures and really slowed this virus, people would keep using the stupid "the cold kills more people, we don't need a lock down next time" argument. If we don't lockdown and it kills many people, well, then it's too late. There doesn't seem to be a scenario where people understand how bad this could be, take proper precautions, and acknowledge they took good measures instead of just overreacting


The scary bit: just 5 (!) days ago the median prediction amongst experts in the field was 20k cases *next* Sunday!

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/in ... et-either/

If it spreads like it did the last couple of days you'd be -100k by then, and see how many experts had to learn that the hard way.

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
kalvado
Posts: 2496
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:32 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:

More than 3,800 people are currently hospitalized, or 12 percent of all confirmed cases. Of those, 888 people are currently in intensive care.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.

And NY governor wants to have 140k beds in 3 weeks when the peak is expected.
Thing is, we know for a fact that things WILL get worse. And we have a last little chance to prepare. Panic? It is time to panic, actually, just try to pretend calm and try not to break things.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9919
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:34 pm

So any billions in the stimulus package for medical research, drug companies and equipment suppliers to have them ramp up efforts?
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:36 pm

par13del wrote:
So any billions in the stimulus package for medical research, drug companies and equipment suppliers to have them ramp up efforts?


I don't think the currently need any help and are drowning in orders and funding for research projects. Just like coffin makers will probably be fine.

Best regards
Thomas
Last edited by tommy1808 on Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:36 pm

kalvado wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:

More than 3,800 people are currently hospitalized, or 12 percent of all confirmed cases. Of those, 888 people are currently in intensive care.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.

And NY governor wants to have 140k beds in 3 weeks when the peak is expected.
Thing is, we know for a fact that things WILL get worse. And we have a last little chance to prepare. Panic? It is time to panic, actually, just try to pretend calm and try not to break things.


Lets face it. The peak is likely right now or in the past week. With these quarantine and lockdown measures going on for a week or more now in some locations it is very hard for me to buy into the theory that the peak is 2-3 weeks away. It may look that way in testing results in the end but reality is it was probably way before that and we did not have the testing to know it at the time.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:38 pm

kalvado wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:

More than 3,800 people are currently hospitalized, or 12 percent of all confirmed cases. Of those, 888 people are currently in intensive care.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.

And NY governor wants to have 140k beds in 3 weeks when the peak is expected.
Thing is, we know for a fact that things WILL get worse. And we have a last little chance to prepare. Panic? It is time to panic, actually, just try to pretend calm and try not to break things.


True, and they are adding beds as we speak and plan to have 100,000 in the coming weeks. Thus far 3,800 people out of 53,000 beds, that's 7% of hospital beds being occupied by coronavirus patients. Any information saying there is chaos on the ground presently is false. I am sure the number will increase but I am sure by the time they would have added the necessary beds to deal by peak. Thankfully.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:40 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.

And NY governor wants to have 140k beds in 3 weeks when the peak is expected.
Thing is, we know for a fact that things WILL get worse. And we have a last little chance to prepare. Panic? It is time to panic, actually, just try to pretend calm and try not to break things.


Lets face it. The peak is likely right now or in the past week. With these quarantine and lockdown measures going on for a week or more now in some locations it is very hard for me to buy into the theory that the peak is 2-3 weeks away. It may look that way in testing results in the end but reality is it was probably way before that and we did not have the testing to know it at the time.


Dr. Brix says that coronavirus has been circulating in NY for weeks now, so you might have a point. Interestingly enough I find that the number of cases its still low on a city the size of 8 million, there must be hundreds of thousands infected and not diagnosed with coronavirus. If so, then the current mortality rate of 1.2% is way too high.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:41 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.

And NY governor wants to have 140k beds in 3 weeks when the peak is expected.
Thing is, we know for a fact that things WILL get worse. And we have a last little chance to prepare. Panic? It is time to panic, actually, just try to pretend calm and try not to break things.


Lets face it. The peak is likely right now or in the past week. With these quarantine and lockdown measures going on for a week or more now in some locations it is very hard for me to buy into the theory that the peak is 2-3 weeks away. It may look that way in testing results in the end but reality is it was probably way before that and we did not have the testing to know it at the time.


Because no one works or shops, and everybody is living alone?
There are three-ish people per household in New York.

https://www.baruch.cuny.edu/nycdata/pop ... _hhold.htm

Italy should be just peachy around now as per your logic. We just start to see things getting better in terms of infections.

It often takes weeks for people to die from Covid-19, peak death is quite a bit behind peak infection.

Best regards
Thomas

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
kalvado
Posts: 2496
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:42 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
Lets face it. The peak is likely right now or in the past week. With these quarantine and lockdown measures going on for a week or more now in some locations it is very hard for me to buy into the theory that the peak is 2-3 weeks away. It may look that way in testing results in the end but reality is it was probably way before that and we did not have the testing to know it at the time.

It is very hard to see the big picture once you're locked up, and it is harder than it sounds - I am in the same boat.. And that is certainly a big part of the situation.
But no, we're just warming up...
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9919
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:43 pm

kalvado wrote:
And NY governor wants to have 140k beds in 3 weeks when the peak is expected.
Thing is, we know for a fact that things WILL get worse. And we have a last little chance to prepare. Panic? It is time to panic, actually, just try to pretend calm and try not to break things.

A question, if we have everyone in NYC in great panic and living in fear, what do we expect them to do, be rational, do we need that from the people in NYC or outside of NYC?

The movie Outbreak with Dustin Hoffman springs to mind.
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:45 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
And NY governor wants to have 140k beds in 3 weeks when the peak is expected.
Thing is, we know for a fact that things WILL get worse. And we have a last little chance to prepare. Panic? It is time to panic, actually, just try to pretend calm and try not to break things.


Lets face it. The peak is likely right now or in the past week. With these quarantine and lockdown measures going on for a week or more now in some locations it is very hard for me to buy into the theory that the peak is 2-3 weeks away. It may look that way in testing results in the end but reality is it was probably way before that and we did not have the testing to know it at the time.


Dr. Brix says that coronavirus has been circulating in NY for weeks now, so you might have a point. Interestingly enough I find that the number of cases its still low on a city the size of 8 million, there must be hundreds of thousands infected and not diagnosed with coronavirus. If so, then the current mortality rate of 1.2% is way too high.


I believe we will find in the end that most people are asymptomatic or minor symptomatic with this. Maybe only about 30-40% show symptoms. The two cruise ships argued that was the case in that around half of those who tested positive never had symptoms. We've seen it in the general pop too with Sean Payton, Rand Paul, and the NBA/NHL guys who all showed no symptoms but got tested because of travel/contacts. Rand/Sean are not young guys either. I think most who get symptoms have underlying conditions but there is some unknown factor as to why some healthy 20-30-40-50 year olds get pretty nasty symptoms and who knows what it is. It may be blood type, diet, obesity, vitamin D levels, if they smoked or do smoke, if they were exposed to significant second hand smoke during times of their lives. I do believe though they'll discover over time that less exhibit symptoms than do.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9919
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:46 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
So any billions in the stimulus package for medical research, drug companies and equipment suppliers to have them ramp up efforts?


I don't think the currently need any help and are drowning in orders and funding for research projects. Just like coffin makers will probably be fine.

Best regards
Thomas

Except we know two things, medical research is expensive and unless funded by the public will be done to be sold at a profit. Now if a company comes up with a cure tomorrow, will they be able to sell it for a profit or have it turned over to all nations with the production capacity?
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:47 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
LNCS0930 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
And NY governor wants to have 140k beds in 3 weeks when the peak is expected.
Thing is, we know for a fact that things WILL get worse. And we have a last little chance to prepare. Panic? It is time to panic, actually, just try to pretend calm and try not to break things.


Lets face it. The peak is likely right now or in the past week. With these quarantine and lockdown measures going on for a week or more now in some locations it is very hard for me to buy into the theory that the peak is 2-3 weeks away. It may look that way in testing results in the end but reality is it was probably way before that and we did not have the testing to know it at the time.


Because no one works or shops, and everybody is living alone?
There are three-ish people per household in New York.

https://www.baruch.cuny.edu/nycdata/pop ... _hhold.htm

Italy should be just peachy around now as per your logic. We just start to see things getting better in terms of infections.

It often takes weeks for people to die from Covid-19, peak death is quite a bit behind peak infection.

Best regards
Thomas

Best regards
Thomas


If that's true then Germany shouldn't have a 0.5 mortality rate. You only have 181 dead from 35,700 infected.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
kalvado
Posts: 2496
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:48 pm

par13del wrote:
kalvado wrote:
And NY governor wants to have 140k beds in 3 weeks when the peak is expected.
Thing is, we know for a fact that things WILL get worse. And we have a last little chance to prepare. Panic? It is time to panic, actually, just try to pretend calm and try not to break things.

A question, if we have everyone in NYC in great panic and living in fear, what do we expect them to do, be rational, do we need that from the people in NYC or outside of NYC?

The movie Outbreak with Dustin Hoffman springs to mind.

Locking the door and hiding under the blanket is about right thing to do anyway..
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18478
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:53 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:

More than 3,800 people are currently hospitalized, or 12 percent of all confirmed cases. Of those, 888 people are currently in intensive care.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.


And how many of those 53,000 beds are in IC units? Whatever the number, it’s going to be way less than 53,000. What’s your solution when the ICU beds run out?

Edit: NYPost reports New York has just 3,000 ICU beds, so that’s nearly 1/3 gone already, ignoring anyone who’s seriously ill with anything other than Covid-19.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/new-york- ... rus-fight/
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7887
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:53 pm

par13del wrote:
The movie Outbreak


Don't tell Trump about that movie.

Is anybody tracking how this virus spread? Did China ever tried to find patient 0 or 1? Surveillance was a failure, containment was a failure now looks like tracking is also a failure.

Michigan is in top 5, how did we get there. Several possibilities.
    Non-stop China flights
    Iran
    New York
    Washington
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:56 pm

scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:

More than 3,800 people are currently hospitalized, or 12 percent of all confirmed cases. Of those, 888 people are currently in intensive care.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.


And how many of those 53,000 beds are in IC units? Whatever the number, it’s going to be way less than 53,000. What’s your solution when the ICU beds run out?

Edit: NYPost reports New York has just 3,000 ICU beds, so that’s nearly 1/3 gone already, ignoring anyone who’s seriously ill with anything other than Covid-19.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/new-york- ... rus-fight/


they are getting ventilators, thousands of them, so any bed can become an "ICU bed".
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7887
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:56 pm

scbriml wrote:
Edit: NYPost reports New York has just 3,000 ICU beds,


You have to factor in what % of those ICU beds are equipped to deal with upper respiratory disorders. Probably 18% going by the general statistics.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9919
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:01 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
par13del wrote:
The movie Outbreak


Don't tell Trump about that movie.

Is anybody tracking how this virus spread? Did China ever tried to find patient 0 or 1? Surveillance was a failure, containment was a failure now looks like tracking is also a failure.

Michigan is in top 5, how did we get there. Several possibilities.
    Non-stop China flights
    Iran
    New York
    Washington

We have something circulating on Facebook about a lady in South Korea who was the contact person for infecting a couple thousand individuals.
A car accident, hospital visit, a buffet lunch and two funerals was all it took, whether true or not is unknown by me at this time.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:03 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Edit: NYPost reports New York has just 3,000 ICU beds,


You have to factor in what % of those ICU beds are equipped to deal with upper respiratory disorders. Probably 18% going by the general statistics.


And people do still have heart attacks...

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
User avatar
scbriml
Posts: 18478
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:10 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.


And how many of those 53,000 beds are in IC units? Whatever the number, it’s going to be way less than 53,000. What’s your solution when the ICU beds run out?

Edit: NYPost reports New York has just 3,000 ICU beds, so that’s nearly 1/3 gone already, ignoring anyone who’s seriously ill with anything other than Covid-19.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/new-york- ... rus-fight/


they are getting ventilators, thousands of them, so any bed can become an "ICU bed".


It takes more than a respirator to turn a standard hospital bed into an ICU one. You also need staff that are sufficiently trained to treat critically ill patients. NY will quickly run out of ICU beds and the staff to man them. More respirators is a help, but it’s certainly not the simple answer you seem to think it is.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:15 pm

This is why projections are causing more panic than what's necessary

In a briefing on Wednesday, Mr. Cuomo said there were indications that social distancing measures put in place in New York appeared to be helping — but that more needed to be done. “The evidence suggests that the density control measures may be working,” he said.

On Sunday, for example, the state’s projections showed hospitalizations doubling every two days. By Tuesday, the estimates showed hospitalizations doubling every 4.7 days, he said — adding the caveat that such a projection was “almost too good to be true.”


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/worl ... e=Homepage

Some good news are starting to come out of NY.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:18 pm

scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

And how many of those 53,000 beds are in IC units? Whatever the number, it’s going to be way less than 53,000. What’s your solution when the ICU beds run out?

Edit: NYPost reports New York has just 3,000 ICU beds, so that’s nearly 1/3 gone already, ignoring anyone who’s seriously ill with anything other than Covid-19.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/new-york- ... rus-fight/


they are getting ventilators, thousands of them, so any bed can become an "ICU bed".


It takes more than a respirator to turn a standard hospital bed into an ICU one. You also need staff that are sufficiently trained to treat critically ill patients. NY will quickly run out of ICU beds and the staff to man them. More respirators is a help, but it’s certainly not the simple answer you seem to think it is.


As per wiki: "Common equipment in an ICU includes mechanical ventilators to assist breathing through an endotracheal tube or a tracheostomy tube; cardiac monitors for monitoring Cardiac condition; equipment for the constant monitoring of bodily functions; a web of intravenous lines, feeding tubes, nasogastric tubes, suction pumps, drains, and catheters, syringe pumps; and a wide array of drugs to treat the primary condition(s) of hospitalization. Medically induced comas, analgesics, and induced sedation are common ICU tools needed and used to reduce pain and prevent secondary infections.".

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:22 pm

par13del wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
par13del wrote:
So any billions in the stimulus package for medical research, drug companies and equipment suppliers to have them ramp up efforts?


I don't think the currently need any help and are drowning in orders and funding for research projects. Just like coffin makers will probably be fine.

Best regards
Thomas

Except we know two things, medical research is expensive and unless funded by the public will be done to be sold at a profit. Now if a company comes up with a cure tomorrow, will they be able to sell it for a profit or have it turned over to all nations with the production capacity?


They probably wouldn't be able to monopolise it, but eminent domain without compensation is pretty much always illegal across jurisdictions. They will get their money, and the marketing value may be hard to beat.

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:22 pm

Here is a study from Oxford university in Britain:

Oxford Study: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population


Because testing regimens across the world have varied tremendously, the actual mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 have been hard to pin down. But modeling by researchers at the University of Oxford could provide some welcome good news, even if the initial takeaway doesn’t seem so promising. According to a team from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all.

According to the modeling, the coronavirus arrived in mid-January at the latest, and spread undetected for over a month before the first cases were confirmed. Based on a susceptibility-infected-recovery model — a commonly used estimate in epidemiology — with data from case and death reports in the U.K. and Italy, the researchers determined that the initial “herd immunity” strategy of the U.K. government could have been sound. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said lead researcher Sunetra Gupta, referring to an academic report predicting that up to 250,000 could be killed if the government maintained its plan to suppress the virus “but not get rid of it completely,” as the country’s chief scientific adviser put it. As of Monday, 87 people in the United Kingdom had died from the coronavirus; out of a total of 90,436 tests, 8,077 were positive.
To see if their math checks out, the Oxford team is now working with researchers at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to begin antibody testing as soon as this week. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” Gupta told the Financial Times.


https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... f-u-k.html

So if this is in the right track, and only 433 people have died in the UK, how low can the mortality rate of this be?
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
ltbewr
Posts: 14665
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:31 pm

The attention and numbers as to NY City and adjacent areas in its suburbs as well as New Jersey is likely due to several factors.

Large population. Concentration / Density of population. Higher percentage of older persons as well with health problems that increase risk. Certain religious communities where limited contact with mainline news an media. Many in Poverty, low incomes, and un-documented persons. Aggressive testing. Early hot spots (New Rochelle, Westchester County, NY, Bergen County, NJ)

Beyond those variables, there is the fact that NYC metro area is the media center of the USA, one of the biggest in the world and with NY, its Governor Cuomo who's daily public conferences have been well done, using emotional cues, even picked up by CNN and other national/international media, as the most reliable info and a great counter to Pres. Trump.
 
art
Posts: 3223
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:37 pm

olle wrote:
Who will pay for the poor people needing health care?


You could always try getting the government to pay.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2496
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:57 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
par13del wrote:
The movie Outbreak


Don't tell Trump about that movie.

Is anybody tracking how this virus spread? Did China ever tried to find patient 0 or 1? Surveillance was a failure, containment was a failure now looks like tracking is also a failure.

Michigan is in top 5, how did we get there. Several possibilities.
    Non-stop China flights
    Iran
    New York
    Washington

China went pretty deep into the history, no P-0 though. Bedford has a nice RNA-sequence based tracing of what is going on (naturally very incomplete).
US didn't even attempt to trace where infection came from. Bedford data shows lots - tens, if not hundreds - sources.
 
JJJ
Posts: 3511
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:34 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

they are getting ventilators, thousands of them, so any bed can become an "ICU bed".


It takes more than a respirator to turn a standard hospital bed into an ICU one. You also need staff that are sufficiently trained to treat critically ill patients. NY will quickly run out of ICU beds and the staff to man them. More respirators is a help, but it’s certainly not the simple answer you seem to think it is.


As per wiki: "Common equipment in an ICU includes mechanical ventilators to assist breathing through an endotracheal tube or a tracheostomy tube; cardiac monitors for monitoring Cardiac condition; equipment for the constant monitoring of bodily functions; a web of intravenous lines, feeding tubes, nasogastric tubes, suction pumps, drains, and catheters, syringe pumps; and a wide array of drugs to treat the primary condition(s) of hospitalization. Medically induced comas, analgesics, and induced sedation are common ICU tools needed and used to reduce pain and prevent secondary infections.".

Best regards
Thomas


Not only that. You need a negative pressure room to prevent cross-contamination.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 9919
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:00 pm

JJJ wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

It takes more than a respirator to turn a standard hospital bed into an ICU one. You also need staff that are sufficiently trained to treat critically ill patients. NY will quickly run out of ICU beds and the staff to man them. More respirators is a help, but it’s certainly not the simple answer you seem to think it is.


As per wiki: "Common equipment in an ICU includes mechanical ventilators to assist breathing through an endotracheal tube or a tracheostomy tube; cardiac monitors for monitoring Cardiac condition; equipment for the constant monitoring of bodily functions; a web of intravenous lines, feeding tubes, nasogastric tubes, suction pumps, drains, and catheters, syringe pumps; and a wide array of drugs to treat the primary condition(s) of hospitalization. Medically induced comas, analgesics, and induced sedation are common ICU tools needed and used to reduce pain and prevent secondary infections.".

Best regards
Thomas


Not only that. You need a negative pressure room to prevent cross-contamination.

Despite all that, as this is a world pandemic, I think the vast majority of patients are going to be treated in rooms that come no where near the listed standard of what an ICU should be, inclusive of equipment and staffing. A number of countries in the Caribbean have such facilities but the number of beds is limited, so hopefully the lock downs that we are engaged in were put in place prior to the arrival, with a lot of tourist traffic the chances of infection are / were high.

In the Bahamas we are now up to 5 confirmed, unfortunately, if sick persons do not seek medical help it could be a much higher number, we also have an illegal immigration problem, those persons shun official sources.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8894
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:09 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
This is why projections are causing more panic than what's necessary

You keep criticizing "projections." I'm not sure why. This isn't all just random. Surely you know that tomorrow is going to have more cases than today? How do you know? You're projecting

How many beds and ICUs should we set up? How much money should we float to individuals and businesses? How long should we stay locked down? We don't just shwag things, we're modeling things and using projections

Now of course it's garbage in garbage out. Things may not be 100% accurate. Maybe people are misconstruing models or fear mongering. But you've more than once negatively mentioned us using projections and more than once pointed out that everything is fine because we aren't overwhelmed right now, as if we are at the peak (or that it's anyone's guess whether we're at the peak)

AirWorthy99 wrote:
So if this is in the right track, and only 433 people have died in the UK, how low can the mortality rate of this be?

You do realize that people don't catch this and immediately die (it takes days to weeks)?

You do realize that different containment strategies can shield the more vulnerable and can lower or raise the death rate (depending on who gets it)?

You do realize death rate depends on if the healthcare system is overwhelmed or not (as in it'll be a lot lower if it's spread out and doesn't spike right off the bat)?


Again, I'm not sure why you keep looking at data RIGHT NOW and fail to take the future into account at all. I mean none of us can predict the future, but we can be pretty sure that tomorrow we'll have more cases since it's obviously not going to follow a exponential curve and instantly level off. We can be pretty sure that many of those sick right now that haven't died and haven't been accounted for in the death rate will die and the death rate will rise to some degree.

You're asking a lot of valid questions and yes, we can definitely fall into the trap of blindly extrapolating. But I'd say you go way overboard... completely living in the present and are being short sighted. We need models and predictions otherwise we are just shooting in the dark and yoloing this response
 
User avatar
JetBuddy
Posts: 2524
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:13 pm

A little insight into the main Coronavirus discussion in Norway:

Cabins. Yep, your little cabin in the mountains. Norwegians love them. A quiet place away from home with fresh air and silence, where your nearest neighbor is often km away.

When the quarantine was put in place nearly 2 weeks ago, Norwegians first instinct was to pack their stuff and take their family to the remote cabins in the mountains. Overnight hundreds of thousands of people moved into their cabins. The local municipalities basically panicked, because 1) they thought maybe they would bring the virus up there, and 2) because they were worried their local health services would not be able to deal with the influx of people. Small municipalities with 1-5,000 inhabitants overnight had 30-50,000 people.

So the Norwegian government - in a knee jerk reaction - said travelling to the cabins was banned. However, they didn't have the right to ban people's movement like that. There are laws that restrict political power to limit people's movement. Which is a good thing. So the government changed their tone, and said it was not advised to travel to your own cabin. And then they said FHI (Folkehelseinstituttet / Institute of Public Health) had told them this was for the best.

The problem however, is that FHI (Institute of Public Health) had actually stated the opposite. They said travelling to the cabin would limit spread of Coronavirus.

So now you have this huge debate on this topic, half the population believes the government, half of them believes the FHI, and nobody can agree. The issue is that when public health services become overrun (which they're about to right now), the arguement of overrunning local health services goes out the window anyway. I'm fairly confident this advise of not travelling to your cabin will be reversed within 1 month from now, and the government will tell people to go to their cabins.

Anyway, probably not that interesting. But it's a little window into the Norwegian mindset.
 
Newark727
Posts: 1617
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:29 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Image


Is there a reason why California's curve should be so much flatter than Washington or New York? I'm a little suspicious otherwise.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:31 pm

Newark727 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Image


Is there a reason why California's curve should be so much flatter than Washington or New York? I'm a little suspicious otherwise.



Quicker Shelter in Place order, and NYC uses much more public transportation are my guess.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
Tugger
Posts: 9838
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:41 pm

This idea of doing nothing, or limiting information, it's ridiculous!

If there is a forest fire you don't tell everyone "don't worry, sit tight" and then just let it burn. Have people wait patently until they see the fire coming towards them.

That is what some are suggesting we do. No! You fight fires with information and resources and keeping people out of its path as much as possible. That is being done with COVID19, that is what you must do.

And as is the case with most out of control fires, it gets that way because somewhere the initial threat of the fire wasn't apparent, so the fire grew to a point the authorities couldn't contain it easily and you have to instead move a shelter in place model and fight only where it is impacting people, and work to keep it from moving toward any population. But the people get to see the news about the fire, or the hurricane or whatever even is occurring and the government(s) respond and assist.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
User avatar
lugie
Posts: 786
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:54 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is a study from Oxford university in Britain:

Oxford Study: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population


Because testing regimens across the world have varied tremendously, the actual mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 have been hard to pin down. But modeling by researchers at the University of Oxford could provide some welcome good news, even if the initial takeaway doesn’t seem so promising. According to a team from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all.

According to the modeling, the coronavirus arrived in mid-January at the latest, and spread undetected for over a month before the first cases were confirmed. Based on a susceptibility-infected-recovery model — a commonly used estimate in epidemiology — with data from case and death reports in the U.K. and Italy, the researchers determined that the initial “herd immunity” strategy of the U.K. government could have been sound. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said lead researcher Sunetra Gupta, referring to an academic report predicting that up to 250,000 could be killed if the government maintained its plan to suppress the virus “but not get rid of it completely,” as the country’s chief scientific adviser put it. As of Monday, 87 people in the United Kingdom had died from the coronavirus; out of a total of 90,436 tests, 8,077 were positive.
To see if their math checks out, the Oxford team is now working with researchers at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to begin antibody testing as soon as this week. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” Gupta told the Financial Times.


https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... f-u-k.html

So if this is in the right track, and only 433 people have died in the UK, how low can the mortality rate of this be?



Well this is a statistical model and needs a lot of testing of representative population samples (testing for active COVID cases and blood testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies) to be backed up and until then it's just one of many theories ranging from the very best (like this one) to the very worst case scenarios.
Of course, if this was true, it would be perfect news.

However, this seems to contradict all the evidence currently coming out of Spain and Italy.
Yes, there might be factors (such as a very high average age in Lombardia and Comunidad de Madrid, higher prevalence of frequent smoking especially in the male demographic) that make those areas more vulnerable to severe cases of a virus that causes pneumonia but the scenes playing in those areas don't appear to fit the narrative of a virus that, while infecting half the UK's population (i.e. over 30 million infected), has only caused 400-odd deaths.

The Comunidad de Madrid has around 4 million inhabitants and already over 2,000 deaths, with ICUs overflowing, ice skating rinks having to be turned into morgues and old people dying left behind in nursing homes. That seems like a very different Coronavirus than the one this statistical model is alluding to.
Q400 E175 E190 CRJ7 CRJ9 CRJX MD88 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A359 B733 B73G B738 B739 B748 B764 B772 B77W B788 B789
FRA STR HAM TXL MUC ZRH ACE BRU BLL DUB MAN ARN MAD OPO LIS FNC AMS PHL RDU LGA CLT EWR ORD ATL SFO MDW IAD YYZ SJO PTY
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 4892
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:59 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

You are posting unverified accounts, how can you trust those posts are not from someone in Russia and in China?

NYT has a live feed from their local news, they haven't reported not a single issue at their hospitals.


Because their hero Alinsky said to do so,

The Rules[edit]
"Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have."
"Never go outside the expertise of your people."
"Whenever possible go outside the expertise of the enemy."
"Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules."
"Ridicule is man's most potent weapon."
"A good tactic is one your people enjoy."
"A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag."
"Keep the pressure on."
"The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself."
"The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition."
"If you push a negative hard and deep enough it will break through into its counterside."
"The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative."
"Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it."


Who is 'their'...?? :boggled: :boggled: :boggled:



You and the remainder who are peaching death and destruction unless we panic people into hiding.

https://www.hoover.org/research/coronav ... erreaction
Last edited by GalaxyFlyer on Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:00 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
This is why projections are causing more panic than what's necessary

You keep criticizing "projections." I'm not sure why. This isn't all just random. Surely you know that tomorrow is going to have more cases than today? How do you know? You're projecting

How many beds and ICUs should we set up? How much money should we float to individuals and businesses? How long should we stay locked down? We don't just shwag things, we're modeling things and using projections

Now of course it's garbage in garbage out. Things may not be 100% accurate. Maybe people are misconstruing models or fear mongering. But you've more than once negatively mentioned us using projections and more than once pointed out that everything is fine because we aren't overwhelmed right now, as if we are at the peak (or that it's anyone's guess whether we're at the peak)

AirWorthy99 wrote:
So if this is in the right track, and only 433 people have died in the UK, how low can the mortality rate of this be?

You do realize that people don't catch this and immediately die (it takes days to weeks)?

You do realize that different containment strategies can shield the more vulnerable and can lower or raise the death rate (depending on who gets it)?

You do realize death rate depends on if the healthcare system is overwhelmed or not (as in it'll be a lot lower if it's spread out and doesn't spike right off the bat)?


Again, I'm not sure why you keep looking at data RIGHT NOW and fail to take the future into account at all. I mean none of us can predict the future, but we can be pretty sure that tomorrow we'll have more cases since it's obviously not going to follow a exponential curve and instantly level off. We can be pretty sure that many of those sick right now that haven't died and haven't been accounted for in the death rate will die and the death rate will rise to some degree.

You're asking a lot of valid questions and yes, we can definitely fall into the trap of blindly extrapolating. But I'd say you go way overboard... completely living in the present and are being short sighted. We need models and predictions otherwise we are just shooting in the dark and yoloing this response


I am not downplaying this thing going on, I just believe that we aren't basing ourselves in real and consistent data. And the epidemiologists and scientists can't even agree on the data. We are mostly basing ourselves on anecdotal and news reports from overflowing hospitals in Italy and Spain, and from what happened in Wuhan. That's all, there isn't much data to actually tell us the magnitude of this.

I also believe that we should do our best to flatten the curve to not have our health facilities overwhelmed. It may seem as high the numbers seen coming out of NY, that they have done a great job thus far in increasing hospital capacity.

We are truly flying blind here, not even with instruments, nothing flying our aircraft in IMC conditions using our gut to navigate this through the clouds, yes, we should keep an eye on the horizon out the window and keep flying level as we are doing, however we would need to land somehow.

There is the potential of millions of job loses in the US alone, and even a 30% contraction in GDP, that's depression level and all because we are trying to do our best to mitigate this, yet we don't know if it will work or if it was worth it.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
emperortk
Posts: 58
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:01 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:01 pm

lugie wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is a study from Oxford university in Britain:

Oxford Study: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population


Because testing regimens across the world have varied tremendously, the actual mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 have been hard to pin down. But modeling by researchers at the University of Oxford could provide some welcome good news, even if the initial takeaway doesn’t seem so promising. According to a team from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all.

According to the modeling, the coronavirus arrived in mid-January at the latest, and spread undetected for over a month before the first cases were confirmed. Based on a susceptibility-infected-recovery model — a commonly used estimate in epidemiology — with data from case and death reports in the U.K. and Italy, the researchers determined that the initial “herd immunity” strategy of the U.K. government could have been sound. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said lead researcher Sunetra Gupta, referring to an academic report predicting that up to 250,000 could be killed if the government maintained its plan to suppress the virus “but not get rid of it completely,” as the country’s chief scientific adviser put it. As of Monday, 87 people in the United Kingdom had died from the coronavirus; out of a total of 90,436 tests, 8,077 were positive.
To see if their math checks out, the Oxford team is now working with researchers at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to begin antibody testing as soon as this week. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” Gupta told the Financial Times.


https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... f-u-k.html

So if this is in the right track, and only 433 people have died in the UK, how low can the mortality rate of this be?



Well this is a statistical model and needs a lot of testing of representative population samples (testing for active COVID cases and blood testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies) to be backed up and until then it's just one of many theories ranging from the very best (like this one) to the very worst case scenarios.
Of course, if this was true, it would be perfect news.

However, this seems to contradict all the evidence currently coming out of Spain and Italy.
Yes, there might be factors (such as a very high average age in Lombardia and Comunidad de Madrid, higher prevalence of frequent smoking especially in the male demographic) that make those areas more vulnerable to severe cases of a virus that causes pneumonia but the scenes playing in those areas don't appear to fit the narrative of a virus that, while infecting half the UK's population (i.e. over 30 million infected), has only caused 400-odd deaths.

The Comunidad de Madrid has around 4 million inhabitants and already over 2,000 deaths, with ICUs overflowing, ice skating rinks having to be turned into morgues and old people dying left behind in nursing homes. That seems like a very different Coronavirus than the one this statistical model is alluding to.


But see, this is a model that generates projections that airworthy likes as opposed to those other models that generate projections s/he doesn't like. Therefore, we should believe this one and not the others. Consequently it's time to lift restrictions.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: art, DarkSnowyNight, tommy1808 and 28 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos