AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:03 pm

lugie wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is a study from Oxford university in Britain:

Oxford Study: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population


Because testing regimens across the world have varied tremendously, the actual mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 have been hard to pin down. But modeling by researchers at the University of Oxford could provide some welcome good news, even if the initial takeaway doesn’t seem so promising. According to a team from Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease lab, half of the population of the United Kingdom may have already been infected with the coronavirus. If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all.

According to the modeling, the coronavirus arrived in mid-January at the latest, and spread undetected for over a month before the first cases were confirmed. Based on a susceptibility-infected-recovery model — a commonly used estimate in epidemiology — with data from case and death reports in the U.K. and Italy, the researchers determined that the initial “herd immunity” strategy of the U.K. government could have been sound. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said lead researcher Sunetra Gupta, referring to an academic report predicting that up to 250,000 could be killed if the government maintained its plan to suppress the virus “but not get rid of it completely,” as the country’s chief scientific adviser put it. As of Monday, 87 people in the United Kingdom had died from the coronavirus; out of a total of 90,436 tests, 8,077 were positive.
To see if their math checks out, the Oxford team is now working with researchers at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to begin antibody testing as soon as this week. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” Gupta told the Financial Times.


https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... f-u-k.html

So if this is in the right track, and only 433 people have died in the UK, how low can the mortality rate of this be?



Well this is a statistical model and needs a lot of testing of representative population samples (testing for active COVID cases and blood testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies) to be backed up and until then it's just one of many theories ranging from the very best (like this one) to the very worst case scenarios.
Of course, if this was true, it would be perfect news.

However, this seems to contradict all the evidence currently coming out of Spain and Italy.
Yes, there might be factors (such as a very high average age in Lombardia and Comunidad de Madrid, higher prevalence of frequent smoking especially in the male demographic) that make those areas more vulnerable to severe cases of a virus that causes pneumonia but the scenes playing in those areas don't appear to fit the narrative of a virus that, while infecting half the UK's population (i.e. over 30 million infected), has only caused 400-odd deaths.

The Comunidad de Madrid has around 4 million inhabitants and already over 2,000 deaths, with ICUs overflowing, ice skating rinks having to be turned into morgues and old people dying left behind in nursing homes. That seems like a very different Coronavirus than the one this statistical model is alluding to.


The mortality data coming out of the different nations seems to show how lost we are on this. Italy 10%, Iran 7%, Germany 0.5%. US 1.2%. The obvious question is this is all based on total infected that have tested positive, how about those who haven't been tested and carry COVID19, how low would the mortality rate go down? or hospitalizations for that matter?

I hope epidemiologists sit down and arrive to a consensus soon on what's the reality of this, because this seems to be all over the place, and extremely unreliable.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:05 pm

emperortk wrote:
lugie wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is a study from Oxford university in Britain:





https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... f-u-k.html

So if this is in the right track, and only 433 people have died in the UK, how low can the mortality rate of this be?



Well this is a statistical model and needs a lot of testing of representative population samples (testing for active COVID cases and blood testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies) to be backed up and until then it's just one of many theories ranging from the very best (like this one) to the very worst case scenarios.
Of course, if this was true, it would be perfect news.

However, this seems to contradict all the evidence currently coming out of Spain and Italy.
Yes, there might be factors (such as a very high average age in Lombardia and Comunidad de Madrid, higher prevalence of frequent smoking especially in the male demographic) that make those areas more vulnerable to severe cases of a virus that causes pneumonia but the scenes playing in those areas don't appear to fit the narrative of a virus that, while infecting half the UK's population (i.e. over 30 million infected), has only caused 400-odd deaths.

The Comunidad de Madrid has around 4 million inhabitants and already over 2,000 deaths, with ICUs overflowing, ice skating rinks having to be turned into morgues and old people dying left behind in nursing homes. That seems like a very different Coronavirus than the one this statistical model is alluding to.


But see, this is a model that generates projections that airworthy likes as opposed to those other models that generate projections s/he doesn't like. Therefore, we should believe this one and not the others. Consequently it's time to lift restrictions.


Nope, I am not saying I like these projections. I think this may very well be an extreme projection, I think questions should be asked and answered as to this virus a lot of things are completely unclear. That's all.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 8894
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:19 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
We are mostly basing ourselves on anecdotal and news reports from overflowing hospitals in Italy and Spain, and from what happened in Wuhan. That's all, there isn't much data to actually tell us the magnitude of this.

Are we though? Are the experts in the field that live and breathe this stuff going off anecdotal reports of what they see on CNN? Don't you think they are a bit smarter than that? Don't you think they have decades of research, models, etc etc blah blah?

Of course there is variance and of course the experts aren't going to agree 100%. But it's not like they all have random, wildly contradicting claims

Now the media, politicians, and armchair experts like us? Yeah sure


This all, as I've said before, reminds me of climate change. You have the experts doing heavy lifting, very qualified, and then you have noise, noise everywhere. The media, politicians, "experts," etc all giving their 2¢ and saying true things, false things, true things but for incorrect reasons, misconstruing things, hyping, etc

So people look at the chaos and say "oh no one knows what's going on. There is about equal merit to both sides. I saw some "expert" say something on TV that was disproven. I don't fully understand what's being talked about and can't imagine that experts with decades of experience that are working on this 24/7 and getting their work peer reviewed understand it either."

Look past the noise. I'm throwing out a lot of stuff, just as you are, even though it "agrees with my side." Look past the media and who you see on TV, even if they have a whole lotta degrees in the field. Look at the actual experts and trusted organizations, what they're putting out, and what the rest of the community has to say about it. That is science.

If you do that, you'll find that there is a lot more clarity. Things aren't wildly contradictory. The "hmm I'm a random person thinking of this question, I wonder if the experts thought of this" have indeed thought about it and have a lot of the answers.

And honestly, be careful with "data." I'm not saying don't look into things yourself but if it's incomplete or you couldn't even begin to think about all of the nuances (you don't know what you don't know) you may come to completely erroneous conclusions

Stay skeptical, but don't ignore the robust work the actual scientific community is putting in. We need to listen to them more. From there, what about the politicians and policy makers? Oh yeah they're full of it
 
JJJ
Posts: 3513
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:23 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
This is why projections are causing more panic than what's necessary

You keep criticizing "projections." I'm not sure why. This isn't all just random. Surely you know that tomorrow is going to have more cases than today? How do you know? You're projecting

How many beds and ICUs should we set up? How much money should we float to individuals and businesses? How long should we stay locked down? We don't just shwag things, we're modeling things and using projections

Now of course it's garbage in garbage out. Things may not be 100% accurate. Maybe people are misconstruing models or fear mongering. But you've more than once negatively mentioned us using projections and more than once pointed out that everything is fine because we aren't overwhelmed right now, as if we are at the peak (or that it's anyone's guess whether we're at the peak)

AirWorthy99 wrote:
So if this is in the right track, and only 433 people have died in the UK, how low can the mortality rate of this be?

You do realize that people don't catch this and immediately die (it takes days to weeks)?

You do realize that different containment strategies can shield the more vulnerable and can lower or raise the death rate (depending on who gets it)?

You do realize death rate depends on if the healthcare system is overwhelmed or not (as in it'll be a lot lower if it's spread out and doesn't spike right off the bat)?


Again, I'm not sure why you keep looking at data RIGHT NOW and fail to take the future into account at all. I mean none of us can predict the future, but we can be pretty sure that tomorrow we'll have more cases since it's obviously not going to follow a exponential curve and instantly level off. We can be pretty sure that many of those sick right now that haven't died and haven't been accounted for in the death rate will die and the death rate will rise to some degree.

You're asking a lot of valid questions and yes, we can definitely fall into the trap of blindly extrapolating. But I'd say you go way overboard... completely living in the present and are being short sighted. We need models and predictions otherwise we are just shooting in the dark and yoloing this response


I am not downplaying this thing going on, I just believe that we aren't basing ourselves in real and consistent data. And the epidemiologists and scientists can't even agree on the data. We are mostly basing ourselves on anecdotal and news reports from overflowing hospitals in Italy and Spain, and from what happened in Wuhan. That's all, there isn't much data to actually tell us the magnitude of this.

(...)

There is the potential of millions of job loses in the US alone, and even a 30% contraction in GDP, that's depression level and all because we are trying to do our best to mitigate this, yet we don't know if it will work or if it was worth it.


So you feel like governments are overreacting without "real and consistent data" and you throw a 30% contraction figure.... from where? There isn't real and consistent data for what a longer lockdown would look like and would could be done to mitigate it.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:24 pm

JJJ wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
You keep criticizing "projections." I'm not sure why. This isn't all just random. Surely you know that tomorrow is going to have more cases than today? How do you know? You're projecting

How many beds and ICUs should we set up? How much money should we float to individuals and businesses? How long should we stay locked down? We don't just shwag things, we're modeling things and using projections

Now of course it's garbage in garbage out. Things may not be 100% accurate. Maybe people are misconstruing models or fear mongering. But you've more than once negatively mentioned us using projections and more than once pointed out that everything is fine because we aren't overwhelmed right now, as if we are at the peak (or that it's anyone's guess whether we're at the peak)


You do realize that people don't catch this and immediately die (it takes days to weeks)?

You do realize that different containment strategies can shield the more vulnerable and can lower or raise the death rate (depending on who gets it)?

You do realize death rate depends on if the healthcare system is overwhelmed or not (as in it'll be a lot lower if it's spread out and doesn't spike right off the bat)?


Again, I'm not sure why you keep looking at data RIGHT NOW and fail to take the future into account at all. I mean none of us can predict the future, but we can be pretty sure that tomorrow we'll have more cases since it's obviously not going to follow a exponential curve and instantly level off. We can be pretty sure that many of those sick right now that haven't died and haven't been accounted for in the death rate will die and the death rate will rise to some degree.

You're asking a lot of valid questions and yes, we can definitely fall into the trap of blindly extrapolating. But I'd say you go way overboard... completely living in the present and are being short sighted. We need models and predictions otherwise we are just shooting in the dark and yoloing this response


I am not downplaying this thing going on, I just believe that we aren't basing ourselves in real and consistent data. And the epidemiologists and scientists can't even agree on the data. We are mostly basing ourselves on anecdotal and news reports from overflowing hospitals in Italy and Spain, and from what happened in Wuhan. That's all, there isn't much data to actually tell us the magnitude of this.

(...)

There is the potential of millions of job loses in the US alone, and even a 30% contraction in GDP, that's depression level and all because we are trying to do our best to mitigate this, yet we don't know if it will work or if it was worth it.


So you feel like governments are overreacting without "real and consistent data" and you throw a 30% contraction figure.... from where? There isn't real and consistent data for what a longer lockdown would look like and would could be done to mitigate it.

Here it is:

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said the coronavirus will inflict greater economic pain than they previously expected as they warned of a record plunge in the U.S. output in the second quarter and a deeper global recession.

Morgan Stanley’s U.S. economists led by Ellen Zentner told clients in a report on Sunday that they now see American gross domestic product falling 30.1% in April-June. That will drive up unemployment to average 12.8% over the period, they said.


https://fortune.com/2020/03/23/morgan-s ... omic-pain/
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:28 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
We are mostly basing ourselves on anecdotal and news reports from overflowing hospitals in Italy and Spain, and from what happened in Wuhan. That's all, there isn't much data to actually tell us the magnitude of this.

Are we though? Are the experts in the field that live and breathe this stuff going off anecdotal reports of what they see on CNN? Don't you think they are a bit smarter than that? Don't you think they have decades of research, models, etc etc blah blah?

Of course there is variance and of course the experts aren't going to agree 100%. But it's not like they all have random, wildly contradicting claims

Now the media, politicians, and armchair experts like us? Yeah sure


This all, as I've said before, reminds me of climate change. You have the experts doing heavy lifting, very qualified, and then you have noise, noise everywhere. The media, politicians, "experts," etc all giving their 2¢ and saying true things, false things, true things but for incorrect reasons, misconstruing things, hyping, etc

So people look at the chaos and say "oh no one knows what's going on. There is about equal merit to both sides. I saw some "expert" say something on TV that was disproven. I don't fully understand what's being talked about and can't imagine that experts with decades of experience that are working on this 24/7 and getting their work peer reviewed understand it either."

Look past the noise. I'm throwing out a lot of stuff, just as you are, even though it "agrees with my side." Look past the media and who you see on TV, even if they have a whole lotta degrees in the field. Look at the actual experts and trusted organizations, what they're putting out, and what the rest of the community has to say about it. That is science.

If you do that, you'll find that there is a lot more clarity. Things aren't wildly contradictory. The "hmm I'm a random person thinking of this question, I wonder if the experts thought of this" have indeed thought about it and have a lot of the answers.

And honestly, be careful with "data." I'm not saying don't look into things yourself but if it's incomplete or you couldn't even begin to think about all of the nuances (you don't know what you don't know) you may come to completely erroneous conclusions

Stay skeptical, but don't ignore the robust work the actual scientific community is putting in. We need to listen to them more. From there, what about the politicians and policy makers? Oh yeah they're full of it


Look I am not skeptical, I am just a bit worried that we have closed an economy (for the first time) for something we are still analyzing.

I agree that we should try and not have our health facilities overwhelmed with sick people, and governments are doing all they can to mitigate this, but don't know if keeping this thing closed longer than a month is worth the economic pain and cost that's all. There is no definite number on the amount of people that might die from this, so saying we should keep this closed for months to come to save X amount of lives, based on what data?

I agree we should slow down the spread so that the health infrastructure doesn't blow up and more people die, but we ask questions on the data and then plan moving forward.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2058
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:37 pm

The president sure can't be the one to blame for the economy. That will be the fault of these governors and mayors who keep extending lockdowns. What can the federal government do of these state and local leaders keep people confined for too long? Would they send in the military to remove them?
 
JJJ
Posts: 3513
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:43 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

I am not downplaying this thing going on, I just believe that we aren't basing ourselves in real and consistent data. And the epidemiologists and scientists can't even agree on the data. We are mostly basing ourselves on anecdotal and news reports from overflowing hospitals in Italy and Spain, and from what happened in Wuhan. That's all, there isn't much data to actually tell us the magnitude of this.

(...)

There is the potential of millions of job loses in the US alone, and even a 30% contraction in GDP, that's depression level and all because we are trying to do our best to mitigate this, yet we don't know if it will work or if it was worth it.


So you feel like governments are overreacting without "real and consistent data" and you throw a 30% contraction figure.... from where? There isn't real and consistent data for what a longer lockdown would look like and would could be done to mitigate it.

Here it is:

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said the coronavirus will inflict greater economic pain than they previously expected as they warned of a record plunge in the U.S. output in the second quarter and a deeper global recession.

Morgan Stanley’s U.S. economists led by Ellen Zentner told clients in a report on Sunday that they now see American gross domestic product falling 30.1% in April-June. That will drive up unemployment to average 12.8% over the period, they said.


https://fortune.com/2020/03/23/morgan-s ... omic-pain/


Do you really believe MS and GS are any more reliable in their predictions than the ones you dismiss?

They are also flying blind
 
Alfons
Posts: 299
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:17 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:49 pm

So everything about projections through data analysis and existing use case numbers from other countries in the world, for you is just pushing stupidly the panic button, but when it comes to the topic of...
AirWorthy99 wrote:
There is the potential of millions of job loses in the US alone, and even a 30% contraction in GDP, that's depression level and all because we are trying to do our best to mitigate this, yet we don't know if it will work or if it was worth it.


for that you willingly use projections and push the panic button? Everbody has his driver, but luckily on the decision seats of government bodies, there are some smart people who are not using blinders and are willing to look what happens around.
 
olle
Posts: 1665
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:54 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:

More than 3,800 people are currently hospitalized, or 12 percent of all confirmed cases. Of those, 888 people are currently in intensive care.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.


It is because of this all countries tries to make the curve more flat. The problem starts when the number of cases increases to fast and the resources run low. with the cases of serius cases double every 2-3 days in 2 weeks NY will probably experience a situation worse then nothern Italy. For some people in USA it might come to a suprise but nothern Italy has a very advanced health care accessable to the whole population. This distaster took them by surprise. The difference between USA / UK on one hand and Germany for example on the other is dramatic. Even if nothing can prepare anyone for what Italy and spain experience I rather be in Germany or northern Europe in 2 weeks compared to UK or USA...
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:56 pm

JJJ wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

So you feel like governments are overreacting without "real and consistent data" and you throw a 30% contraction figure.... from where? There isn't real and consistent data for what a longer lockdown would look like and would could be done to mitigate it.

Here it is:

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said the coronavirus will inflict greater economic pain than they previously expected as they warned of a record plunge in the U.S. output in the second quarter and a deeper global recession.

Morgan Stanley’s U.S. economists led by Ellen Zentner told clients in a report on Sunday that they now see American gross domestic product falling 30.1% in April-June. That will drive up unemployment to average 12.8% over the period, they said.


https://fortune.com/2020/03/23/morgan-s ... omic-pain/


Do you really believe MS and GS are any more reliable in their predictions than the ones you dismiss?

They are also flying blind


Because you can predict economics more than an unknown virus.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:02 pm

Alfons wrote:
So everything about projections through data analysis and existing use case numbers from other countries in the world, for you is just pushing stupidly the panic button, but when it comes to the topic of...
AirWorthy99 wrote:
There is the potential of millions of job loses in the US alone, and even a 30% contraction in GDP, that's depression level and all because we are trying to do our best to mitigate this, yet we don't know if it will work or if it was worth it.


for that you willingly use projections and push the panic button? Everbody has his driver, but luckily on the decision seats of government bodies, there are some smart people who are not using blinders and are willing to look what happens around.


Don't know if you are in Europe, or in the US, if in Europe I understand your need not to rush and open business since you guys have a nice social safety net, even if you are in one, a great depression like the one lived in the 30's will bring down any economy even the most robust. The social safety net will be gone and will take some time to rebuild (decades).

Those same smart government people you mention failed to see COVID19 coming up and did not look what was happening around and if they did they made a huge mistake.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2058
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:17 pm

It looks like the governor of California intends to keep everyone locked up for the next 12 weeks. This is beyond cruel.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/state- ... ak-worsens
 
JJJ
Posts: 3513
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:19 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:


Do you really believe MS and GS are any more reliable in their predictions than the ones you dismiss?

They are also flying blind


Because you can predict economics more than an unknown virus.


Economists are terrible at predicting downturns.

Trust me, I'm one of them.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:23 pm

JJJ wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

Do you really believe MS and GS are any more reliable in their predictions than the ones you dismiss?

They are also flying blind


Because you can predict economics more than an unknown virus.


Economists are terrible at predicting downturns.

Trust me, I'm one of them.


Well, I could tell you from 'anecdotal' information from friends and family (its not my case). Many of them are unemployed now, some are working with much less hours, some will be going into the social safety net others arent. That means most of them won't be spending money and can't pay their bills. You can deduce from there what would happen if that just from the people I know.

We all hope that once we have finished the 'social distancing' period be that one month or two things can get back to the way there were before it happened, if you are an economist you know very well it won't.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
art
Posts: 3223
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:57 pm

I hear that the UK government is acquiring 3.5 million test kits to check for COVID-19 antibodies.. The purpose of these kits is to enable key workers in isolation to take a small blood sample themselves, send it to a lab and within 2 days discover if they are in a position to return to work i(rather than spending perhaps 14 days off work). . As I understand it, if this test were widely used it could give an indication of what proportion of the population has been infexced. With luck it would show there is - and has been - extensive asymptomatic or undiagnosed infection throughout the UK.

This new virus iha been described as a disease to which there is no immunity. I have been baffled by the notion that only a miniscule proportion of the population would become infected by a virus with a reproduction rate estimated to lie in the range of 2-3. If it turned out that millions of infections in the UK were indicated, that would be just brilliant!
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 978
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:04 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Alfons wrote:
So everything about projections through data analysis and existing use case numbers from other countries in the world, for you is just pushing stupidly the panic button, but when it comes to the topic of...
AirWorthy99 wrote:
There is the potential of millions of job loses in the US alone, and even a 30% contraction in GDP, that's depression level and all because we are trying to do our best to mitigate this, yet we don't know if it will work or if it was worth it.


for that you willingly use projections and push the panic button? Everbody has his driver, but luckily on the decision seats of government bodies, there are some smart people who are not using blinders and are willing to look what happens around.


Don't know if you are in Europe, or in the US, if in Europe I understand your need not to rush and open business since you guys have a nice social safety net, even if you are in one, a great depression like the one lived in the 30's will bring down any economy even the most robust. The social safety net will be gone and will take some time to rebuild (decades).

Those same smart government people you mention failed to see COVID19 coming up and did not look what was happening around and if they did they made a huge mistake.



In Europe, a lot of our income vanishes into that social security system.
Our take home pays reflect that as most of us in the higher income tax brackets (and I'm talking 50.000$ per annum + which is nothing in the US but considered high in Europe) only take home half of what we earn and 1/3rd of what we cost to the employers.
In the US, you have higher wages and lower taxes and thus higher take home pay; and cheaper real estate, so it's not imaginable to me that you can't save a considerable amount of money.
So most people in the US don't have health insurance out of choice, as they decide to spend it on less essential things or are too lazy to get a job. Smart people do have health insurance and better ones than we have here in Europe.
Lost your job? You should have saved up enough to be able to ride a downturn and come out of it quite well, if not better off as downturns also offer opportunities.
Finally, if your country doesn't give you the opportunities to get out of poverty, you can always emigrate to Europe. It's really not that hard with a US passport.
I don't hear Americans complaining when things are on the high, rather all we hear is how Europe's socialism is its greatest encumbrance to individual and common success. And then, when the going gets tough, poor me, poor us, we are f*cked.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2058
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:08 pm

art wrote:
I hear that the UK government is acquiring 3.5 million test kits to check for COVID-19 antibodies.. The purpose of these kits is to enable key workers in isolation to take a small blood sample themselves, send it to a lab and within 2 days discover if they are in a position to return to work i(rather than spending perhaps 14 days off work). . As I understand it, if this test were widely used it could give an indication of what proportion of the population has been infexced. With luck it would show there is - and has been - extensive asymptomatic or undiagnosed infection throughout the UK.

This new virus iha been described as a disease to which there is no immunity. I have been baffled by the notion that only a miniscule proportion of the population would become infected by a virus with a reproduction rate estimated to lie in the range of 2-3. If it turned out that millions of infections in the UK were indicated, that would be just brilliant!


With luck? You mean you are hoping there are more infected?
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 4892
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:10 pm

JJJ wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

Do you really believe MS and GS are any more reliable in their predictions than the ones you dismiss?

They are also flying blind


Because you can predict economics more than an unknown virus.


Economists are terrible at predicting downturns.

Trust me, I'm one of them.


It isn’t hard to predict when shutdown the economy like this for months, that a depression is, at least, likely if not a certainty. A depression, 30% unemployment, 25% annualized contraction of GDP, will kill the safety net, most people’s retirement, put the millennial generation in financial straits for the rest of their lives. Is that a good idea?

This overreaction is yet another transfer from the poor to the middle and rich, by killing their opportunities. A transfer from the young to the old by saving the old from the exposure to a virus while killing their opportunities. It’s a classic Bastiat “what’s seen and unseen” case.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2058
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:17 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
JJJ wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Because you can predict economics more than an unknown virus.


Economists are terrible at predicting downturns.

Trust me, I'm one of them.


It isn’t hard to predict when shutdown the economy like this for months, that a depression is, at least, likely if not a certainty. A depression, 30% unemployment, 25% annualized contraction of GDP, will kill the safety net, most people’s retirement, put the millennial generation in financial straits for the rest of their lives. Is that a good idea?

This overreaction is yet another transfer from the poor to the middle and rich, by killing their opportunities. A transfer from the young to the old by saving the old from the exposure to a virus while killing their opportunities. It’s a classic Bastiat “what’s seen and unseen” case.


:checkmark:

This is exactly what will happen if this is allowed to go on any longer.
 
JJJ
Posts: 3513
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:32 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Because you can predict economics more than an unknown virus.


Economists are terrible at predicting downturns.

Trust me, I'm one of them.


Well, I could tell you from 'anecdotal' information from friends and family (its not my case). Many of them are unemployed now, some are working with much less hours, some will be going into the social safety net others arent. That means most of them won't be spending money and can't pay their bills. You can deduce from there what would happen if that just from the people I know.


Yes, a lot of people will lose their jobs if A just like a lot of people will die if B happens

But I can assure you no one at this point can put a number on either scenario because absolutely no one can predict what or how it will happen.

Those speaking about millions of dead are no more scaremongering than those speaking about a 30% GDP contraction. No matter how well paid they are.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:36 pm

JJJ wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

Economists are terrible at predicting downturns.

Trust me, I'm one of them.


Well, I could tell you from 'anecdotal' information from friends and family (its not my case). Many of them are unemployed now, some are working with much less hours, some will be going into the social safety net others arent. That means most of them won't be spending money and can't pay their bills. You can deduce from there what would happen if that just from the people I know.


Yes, a lot of people will lose their jobs if A just like a lot of people will die if B happens

But I can assure you no one at this point can put a number on either scenario because absolutely no one can predict what or how it will happen.

Those speaking about millions of dead are no more scaremongering than those speaking about a 30% GDP contraction. No matter how well paid they are.


People die all the time, in the US 7,000 people on average die per day, and other thousands are born. Holding hostage more than 200 million people and those who are born so that those over 60 don't die, I think the best thing we can do is ask them to not go out and not expose themselves for this virus. That's all. The rest of us exercise caution and responsibility. Why should the entire economy of the world collapse for not doing this?
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 978
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:38 pm

Belgian leading virologist Van Ranst that the Belgian government is listening to, is saying that it will be at least a full year before Belgium will go back to normal life.
He expects a few waves of this until a vaccine becomes available.

He also said that the U.S. is facing prospects of a disaster. "If you look at the curve in New York, it's very steep and will become a huge disaster".
He also suggested: "If I were Dr. Fauci, I would be taking Dr. Trump's microphone away and giving a strong signal."
"Reopening the country by Easter is not realistic at all."

https://www.hln.be/nieuws/binnenland/va ... ~aeed093e/

Van Ranst has changed his mind many times during this crisis. He was against closing schools because the possibility of herd immunity, now he's against. He was against closing borders and isolating incoming air passengers, now he's in favor of the border closures.

I think that he's right on taking 1 year to go back to normal life as well as the looming disaster in the U.S.

Belgium has a working and approved a 15-minute antigen test which will be launched next week, which has a 70% reliability and will be used as a first triage test.
Testing will go from 2500 per day to 10000 per day, for a population of 10 millions.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2496
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:38 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
I hope epidemiologists sit down and arrive to a consensus soon on what's the reality of this, because this seems to be all over the place, and extremely unreliable.

May be not a full consensus, but they did just that: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7
1.4% overall mortality, which is not far from 2% WHO said a while ago.
0.8% for below 30 years, more than 7% for 60+
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 4892
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:45 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Belgian leading virologist Van Ranst that the Belgian government is listening to, is saying that it will be at least a full year before Belgium will go back to normal life.
He expects a few waves of this until a vaccine becomes available.

He also said that the U.S. is facing prospects of a disaster. "If you look at the curve in New York, it's very steep and will become a huge disaster".
He also suggested: "If I were Dr. Fauci, I would be taking Dr. Trump's microphone away and giving a strong signal."
"Reopening the country by Easter is not realistic at all."

https://www.hln.be/nieuws/binnenland/va ... ~aeed093e/

Van Ranst has changed his mind many times during this crisis. He was against closing schools because the possibility of herd immunity, now he's against. He was against closing borders and isolating incoming air passengers, now he's in favor of the border closures.

I think that he's right on taking 1 year to go back to normal life as well as the looming disaster in the U.S.

Belgium has a working and approved a 15-minute antigen test which will be launched next week, which has a 70% reliability and will be used as a first triage test.
Testing will go from 2500 per day to 10000 per day, for a population of 10 millions.


So, which one of opposing positions do we believe? The curve in NYC isn’t found elsewhere in the US because nowhere else has that population density and use of mass transit. I live in the Northeast and have not seen a soul in two weeks except a farmhand at the CSA.

We are nowhere near where N1H1 was ten years ago, in cases and deaths. It was also unknown and no immunity.

A year long lockdown and the economy doesn’t get back to Q42019 GDP until 2026.
 
User avatar
lugie
Posts: 786
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:52 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
art wrote:
I hear that the UK government is acquiring 3.5 million test kits to check for COVID-19 antibodies.. The purpose of these kits is to enable key workers in isolation to take a small blood sample themselves, send it to a lab and within 2 days discover if they are in a position to return to work i(rather than spending perhaps 14 days off work). . As I understand it, if this test were widely used it could give an indication of what proportion of the population has been infexced. With luck it would show there is - and has been - extensive asymptomatic or undiagnosed infection throughout the UK.

This new virus iha been described as a disease to which there is no immunity. I have been baffled by the notion that only a miniscule proportion of the population would become infected by a virus with a reproduction rate estimated to lie in the range of 2-3. If it turned out that millions of infections in the UK were indicated, that would be just brilliant!


With luck? You mean you are hoping there are more infected?



Yes, of course.

If you had paid any attention to the factual information people have been contributing to this thread (instead of periodically dropping in to whine about the "tyrannical Democrat Governors destroying the economy to make Trump look bad" by ordering quarantines to protect the health of their citizens, as they have sworn an oath to do), you would know that finding a higher prevalence of antibodies in the overall population is a good thing because it would indicate that the case fatality rates would be tending toward the lower bounds of the estimates rather than the horrifying 5, 7, or 10% being reported from France, Spain and Italy, respectively.

Moreover, the higher the percentage of the population that has been infected with and recovered from COVID-19, the closer a society gets to reaching herd immunity and being able to fend off potential future waves resulting from new flare-ups.
Q400 E175 E190 CRJ7 CRJ9 CRJX MD88 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A359 B733 B73G B738 B739 B748 B764 B772 B77W B788 B789
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casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:11 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
JJJ wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Well, I could tell you from 'anecdotal' information from friends and family (its not my case). Many of them are unemployed now, some are working with much less hours, some will be going into the social safety net others arent. That means most of them won't be spending money and can't pay their bills. You can deduce from there what would happen if that just from the people I know.


Yes, a lot of people will lose their jobs if A just like a lot of people will die if B happens

But I can assure you no one at this point can put a number on either scenario because absolutely no one can predict what or how it will happen.

Those speaking about millions of dead are no more scaremongering than those speaking about a 30% GDP contraction. No matter how well paid they are.


People die all the time, in the US 7,000 people on average die per day, and other thousands are born. Holding hostage more than 200 million people and those who are born so that those over 60 don't die, I think the best thing we can do is ask them to not go out and not expose themselves for this virus. That's all. The rest of us exercise caution and responsibility. Why should the entire economy of the world collapse for not doing this?

BECAUSE COVID-19 IS NOT AN AVERAGE DISEASE, AND IT WILL MAKE THE AVERAGE DAY A WORSE DAY THAT THE HOSPITALS , AND ECONOMY ARE NOT EQUIPPED TO HANDLE.


Also if you were a person that was in the "risk range: which is still undefined by your standards, wouldn't you want to delay the spread so that a vaccine or effective treatment could be found?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
speedking
Posts: 81
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:00 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:14 pm

lugie wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
art wrote:
I hear that the UK government is acquiring 3.5 million test kits to check for COVID-19 antibodies.. The purpose of these kits is to enable key workers in isolation to take a small blood sample themselves, send it to a lab and within 2 days discover if they are in a position to return to work i(rather than spending perhaps 14 days off work). . As I understand it, if this test were widely used it could give an indication of what proportion of the population has been infexced. With luck it would show there is - and has been - extensive asymptomatic or undiagnosed infection throughout the UK.

This new virus iha been described as a disease to which there is no immunity. I have been baffled by the notion that only a miniscule proportion of the population would become infected by a virus with a reproduction rate estimated to lie in the range of 2-3. If it turned out that millions of infections in the UK were indicated, that would be just brilliant!


With luck? You mean you are hoping there are more infected?



Yes, of course.

If you had paid any attention to the factual information people have been contributing to this thread (instead of periodically dropping in to whine about the "tyrannical Democrat Governors destroying the economy to make Trump look bad" by ordering quarantines to protect the health of their citizens, as they have sworn an oath to do), you would know that finding a higher prevalence of antibodies in the overall population is a good thing because it would indicate that the case fatality rates would be tending toward the lower bounds of the estimates rather than the horrifying 5, 7, or 10% being reported from France, Spain and Italy, respectively.

Moreover, the higher the percentage of the population that has been infected with and recovered from COVID-19, the closer a society gets to reaching herd immunity and being able to fend off potential future waves resulting from new flare-ups.


This herd immunity would mean death of old, sick and disabled. A lot of crematoriums needed. A result would be a master race. Sounds familiar to anybody?
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:19 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

Yes, a lot of people will lose their jobs if A just like a lot of people will die if B happens

But I can assure you no one at this point can put a number on either scenario because absolutely no one can predict what or how it will happen.

Those speaking about millions of dead are no more scaremongering than those speaking about a 30% GDP contraction. No matter how well paid they are.


People die all the time, in the US 7,000 people on average die per day, and other thousands are born. Holding hostage more than 200 million people and those who are born so that those over 60 don't die, I think the best thing we can do is ask them to not go out and not expose themselves for this virus. That's all. The rest of us exercise caution and responsibility. Why should the entire economy of the world collapse for not doing this?

BECAUSE COVID-19 IS NOT AN AVERAGE DISEASE, AND IT WILL MAKE THE AVERAGE DAY A WORSE DAY THAT THE HOSPITALS , AND ECONOMY ARE NOT EQUIPPED TO HANDLE.


Also if you were a person that was in the "risk range: which is still undefined by your standards, wouldn't you want to delay the spread so that a vaccine or effective treatment could be found?


Ok, btw, on reply 3461, I posted this:

Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:

More than 3,800 people are currently hospitalized, or 12 percent of all confirmed cases. Of those, 888 people are currently in intensive care.



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.


As you can see your anecdotal information of things being bad in NY appears not to be realistic or at the very least accurate according to the governor of NY who said that 7% of the beds are being occupied by coronavirus patients, that's as of this morning. So thus far NYC has been able to handle the deluge of patients. Thankfully.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:28 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

People die all the time, in the US 7,000 people on average die per day, and other thousands are born. Holding hostage more than 200 million people and those who are born so that those over 60 don't die, I think the best thing we can do is ask them to not go out and not expose themselves for this virus. That's all. The rest of us exercise caution and responsibility. Why should the entire economy of the world collapse for not doing this?

BECAUSE COVID-19 IS NOT AN AVERAGE DISEASE, AND IT WILL MAKE THE AVERAGE DAY A WORSE DAY THAT THE HOSPITALS , AND ECONOMY ARE NOT EQUIPPED TO HANDLE.


Also if you were a person that was in the "risk range: which is still undefined by your standards, wouldn't you want to delay the spread so that a vaccine or effective treatment could be found?


Ok, btw, on reply 3461, I posted this:

Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:

More than 3,800 people are currently hospitalized, or 12 percent of all confirmed cases. Of those, 888 people are currently in intensive care.



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.


As you can see your anecdotal information of things being bad in NY appears not to be realistic or at the very least accurate according to the governor of NY who said that 7% of the beds are being occupied by coronavirus patients, that's as of this morning. So thus far NYC has been able to handle the deluge of patients. Thankfully.




3800 people are currently hospitalized. Let me point something out to you. On March 18 ( 7 days ago) There were only 2500 cases in all of New York State.

Care to do the math for next week?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... ork_(state)
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:34 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
BECAUSE COVID-19 IS NOT AN AVERAGE DISEASE, AND IT WILL MAKE THE AVERAGE DAY A WORSE DAY THAT THE HOSPITALS , AND ECONOMY ARE NOT EQUIPPED TO HANDLE.


Also if you were a person that was in the "risk range: which is still undefined by your standards, wouldn't you want to delay the spread so that a vaccine or effective treatment could be found?


Ok, btw, on reply 3461, I posted this:

Here is an accurate and not 'anecdotal' data on hospitalizations in NY from Governor Cuomo just recently announced:

More than 3,800 people are currently hospitalized, or 12 percent of all confirmed cases. Of those, 888 people are currently in intensive care.



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... e=Homepage

NY has more 53,000 hospital beds. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... onavirus-c

Lets use evidence not projections not panic not hysteria to actually say how things are.


As you can see your anecdotal information of things being bad in NY appears not to be realistic or at the very least accurate according to the governor of NY who said that 7% of the beds are being occupied by coronavirus patients, that's as of this morning. So thus far NYC has been able to handle the deluge of patients. Thankfully.




3800 people are currently hospitalized. Let me point something out to you. On March 18 ( 7 days ago) There were only 2500 cases in all of New York State.

Care to do the math for next week?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... ork_(state)


When you replied to me earlier today you were questioning my opinion that things on the ground in NY were not in chaos, you disputed that, saying that you have a nurse friend that told you the contrary.

I just posted what the governor said, that 7% of all beds in NY are occupied by COVID-19 patients.

I am not going to speculate on next week, I can let you and the others do that. You have speculated on many things in the past, WWIII earlier this year along with others... So, be my guest and keep speculating.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:18 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Ok, btw, on reply 3461, I posted this:



As you can see your anecdotal information of things being bad in NY appears not to be realistic or at the very least accurate according to the governor of NY who said that 7% of the beds are being occupied by coronavirus patients, that's as of this morning. So thus far NYC has been able to handle the deluge of patients. Thankfully.




3800 people are currently hospitalized. Let me point something out to you. On March 18 ( 7 days ago) There were only 2500 cases in all of New York State.

Care to do the math for next week?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... ork_(state)


When you replied to me earlier today you were questioning my opinion that things on the ground in NY were not in chaos, you disputed that, saying that you have a nurse friend that told you the contrary.

I just posted what the governor said, that 7% of all beds in NY are occupied by COVID-19 patients.

I am not going to speculate on next week, I can let you and the others do that. You have speculated on many things in the past, WWIII earlier this year along with others... So, be my guest and keep speculating.


But they are in chaos. For each of your 3800 beds, there are 10 x that looking for diagnosis and every day is worse than the day before. Every day doctors or nurses are taken out of the rotation because they test positive.

Things are bad. You are just choosing to lie to yourself to make yourself feel better. if you can't project the future , why do you care about any of this ? Your day only goes so far as now .

But just in case you choose to actually stop moving your goal posts .
Read the following.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/health/c ... index.html


BTW WW3? Post the link, and I guarantee we had less to go on than now, or some idiot like Trump actually backed off the trigger that he threatened to pull.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 10973
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:30 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Ok, btw, on reply 3461, I posted this:



As you can see your anecdotal information of things being bad in NY appears not to be realistic or at the very least accurate according to the governor of NY who said that 7% of the beds are being occupied by coronavirus patients, that's as of this morning. So thus far NYC has been able to handle the deluge of patients. Thankfully.




3800 people are currently hospitalized. Let me point something out to you. On March 18 ( 7 days ago) There were only 2500 cases in all of New York State.

Care to do the math for next week?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... ork_(state)


When you replied to me earlier today you were questioning my opinion that things on the ground in NY were not in chaos, you disputed that, saying that you have a nurse friend that told you the contrary.

I just posted what the governor said, that 7% of all beds in NY are occupied by COVID-19 patients.

I am not going to speculate on next week, I can let you and the others do that. You have speculated on many things in the past, WWIII earlier this year along with others... So, be my guest and keep speculating.


We don’t need to ‘speculate’ on next week - we can see logarithmically that fatalities are doubling in NYC every 1.5 days. (the grey dashed lines are there to idiotproof the graph)

Image

US case trajectory shows beginnings of shallowing of the angle, but without full testing projecting the apex is still anyone’s guess. You’ll note Italy and Spain spent almost three weeks at the current US angle.

Image
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
KFTG
Posts: 482
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:41 am

I'm scheduling a coronavirus party soon. Everyone is welcome to join! MAGAts only.
I won't be there, I am just doing my part to rescue 'merica.
Last edited by KFTG on Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7887
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:45 am

I wish states start reporting now many tests they conducted each day, or even how many specimens were submitted, tested and confirmed positive by date of specimen collection would give more meaning to data points.

Just posting +ve by test date and deaths skewing the presentation of actual trajectory.
 
Derico
Posts: 4361
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:45 am

Argentina has suspended repatriation of citizens from all over the world temporarily. Before the temporary ban was instituted,40 to 50 thousand people had been returned to the country on chartered flights, 27 thousand on AR, 11 thousand on LATAM. The government estimates 10 to 15 thousand Argentines remain stuck overseas, but the Overseas Chancellery says over 40 thousand people had contacted the embassies and consulates to report in.

Now those many thousands will be unable to reenter until the conditions are made safer. The government feared the situation with the returnees becoming out of control, with long lines for processing and testing, plus logistical problems with quarantining. They had noticed that many of the people returning from Europe and North America were showing signs of illness.

The government promised some sort of help during this time, but some politicians are very against this, arguing those people who left the country knew they were going to regions with dangerous illness and epidemics, and should not be bailed out for their decision. A few have also raised the Class Warfare card, saying those stuck overseas are obviously well-off and should support themselves.

https://www.clarin.com/politica/coronav ... ITE0N.html
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
BN747
Posts: 7454
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2002 5:48 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:47 am

I'm wondering about the social psychological impact, it's toll will certainly be of negative consequences. That's guaranteed.

And set back of that kind will not be healthy for an already divided society.

BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:53 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
I wish states start reporting now many tests they conducted each day, or even how many specimens were submitted, tested and confirmed positive by date of specimen collection would give more meaning to data points.

Just posting +ve by test date and deaths skewing the presentation of actual trajectory.


No, while the numbers and methodology could be questioned, we have to assume at this point that they are based on doctors following recommendations for testing. Thus the results are satisfactory on a state by state basis. Until those numbers show real decline and flattening, we won't have this issue partially solved.

And remember, it is only partially solved since we are practicing social distancing.

If we go with the Donald Trump Easter massacre plan, we will let everyone go back to school, work church, so that those that have it and don't know it can spread it to their coworkers, classmates, and fellow church goers to steepen the curve again.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
A101
Posts: 1730
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:21 am

The Western Australian government is requesting the Royal Australian Navy escorts a cruise ship carrying at least seven COVID-19 passengers out of Australian waters.
 
BigBazza
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:02 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:39 am

NYC does look bad...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... Hwe0dmIdAo

"Some have died inside the emergency room while waiting for a bed."

"A refrigerated truck has been stationed outside to hold the bodies of the dead. Over the past 24 hours, New York City’s public hospital system said in a statement, 13 people at Elmhurst had died.

“It’s apocalyptic,” said Dr. Bray, 27, a general medicine resident at the hospital."

"All of the more than 1,800 intensive care beds in the city are expected to be full by Friday,..."

"There are not always enough gurneys, so some patients sit in chairs. One patient on Sunday had been without a bed for 36 hours, she said"

"With ventilators in short supply, NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital, one of the city’s largest systems, has begun using one machine to help multiple patients at a time, a virtually unheard-of move, a spokeswoman said."
 
rjbesikof
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:21 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:46 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
It looks like the governor of California intends to keep everyone locked up for the next 12 weeks. This is beyond cruel.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/state- ... ak-worsens


Not one bit surprised. China took 3 months to gradually reopen, and even then is still in the process of reverting back to normal life. If Newsom's expectations for a reopening in 12 weeks come to fruition, California will reopen right when the weather starts to be consistently hot.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 978
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:42 am

Japan has seen a sudden jump in confirmed cases. 114 new cases have been confirmed.
With Olympics now out of the way, they can finally start focussing on what's important... :banghead: :banghead: :bomb:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The Tokyo governor issues a warning for the potential of an explosive increase of infections and has asked to stay put this weekend. :bomb:

Asks to work from home as much as possible.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202003 ... elated_001

Japan sets up a task force for the virus and may declare the state of national emergency.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202003 ... 11000.html


Seriously, if the Olympics have delayed Japan's response for weeks, I hope that this government will face criminal trial.
 
art
Posts: 3223
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:29 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
art wrote:
I hear that the UK government is acquiring 3.5 million test kits to check for COVID-19 antibodies.. The purpose of these kits is to enable key workers in isolation to take a small blood sample themselves, send it to a lab and within 2 days discover if they are in a position to return to work i(rather than spending perhaps 14 days off work). . As I understand it, if this test were widely used it could give an indication of what proportion of the population has been infexced. With luck it would show there is - and has been - extensive asymptomatic or undiagnosed infection throughout the UK.

This new virus iha been described as a disease to which there is no immunity. I have been baffled by the notion that only a miniscule proportion of the population would become infected by a virus with a reproduction rate estimated to lie in the range of 2-3. If it turned out that millions of infections in the UK were indicated, that would be just brilliant!


With luck? You mean you are hoping there are more infected?


I think you may have missed my point.

Current UK figures are around 10,000 confirmed cases and around 500 deaths. If in fact the real number of people who have been infected was a million with 500 deaths then the death rate would be a hundredth of that which current figures show.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2058
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:36 am

art wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
art wrote:
I hear that the UK government is acquiring 3.5 million test kits to check for COVID-19 antibodies.. The purpose of these kits is to enable key workers in isolation to take a small blood sample themselves, send it to a lab and within 2 days discover if they are in a position to return to work i(rather than spending perhaps 14 days off work). . As I understand it, if this test were widely used it could give an indication of what proportion of the population has been infexced. With luck it would show there is - and has been - extensive asymptomatic or undiagnosed infection throughout the UK.

This new virus iha been described as a disease to which there is no immunity. I have been baffled by the notion that only a miniscule proportion of the population would become infected by a virus with a reproduction rate estimated to lie in the range of 2-3. If it turned out that millions of infections in the UK were indicated, that would be just brilliant!


With luck? You mean you are hoping there are more infected?


I think you may have missed my point.

Current UK figures are around 10,000 confirmed cases and around 500 deaths. If in fact the real number of people who have been infected was a million with 500 deaths then the death rate would be a hundredth of that which current figures show.


Ok thanks. I had misunderstood.
 
Newark727
Posts: 1617
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:39 am

A101 wrote:
The Western Australian government is requesting the Royal Australian Navy escorts a cruise ship carrying at least seven COVID-19 passengers out of Australian waters.


When the first cruise ship cases started making news, I sort of vaguely wondered if this sort of thing might happen. Next step is torpedoing them. (THAT'S A JOKE.)
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:59 am

JJJ wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
JJJ wrote:

Do you really believe MS and GS are any more reliable in their predictions than the ones you dismiss?

They are also flying blind


Because you can predict economics more than an unknown virus.


Economists are terrible at predicting downturns.

Trust me, I'm one of them.


:checkmark:
Just look at Larry Kudlow ...

“At home in the U.S., there are still housing-slump worries and concerns about an inventory correction in autos and factories. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan this week even predicted a recession, naming the budget deficit as the cause. Huh? The deficit is evaporating as record tax revenues are being generated by a solid economy, itself a function of the low marginal tax rates put in place by President Bush.” — March, 2007

“Recessions are therapeutic. They cleanse excess from the economy. Think about excessive risk speculation, leverage, and housing. Recessions are curative: They restore balance and create the foundation for the next recovery. Despite the housing and credit problem and the sub-prime virus, banks are still lending to businesses. So we don’t have a genuine credit crunch across the board. That is very good.” — April, 2008

“There's no question that President Clinton's across-the-board tax increases on labor, capital and energy will throw a wet blanket over the recovery and depress the economy's long-run potential to grow.” — March, 1993

“And let’s not forget: The stock market, which is a leading indicator of the future economy, is in a wee bit of a correction. Given the recent rise of presidential candidate Donald Trump, we should all be thankful that stocks haven’t plunged. Trump’s agenda of trade protectionism, dollar devaluation, and immigrant deportation is completely anti-growth. It’s like Fortress America in an economy that is completely globalized and where the U.S. must compete in the worldwide race for capital and labor. Trump’s policies don’t fit.” — August, 2015

If there is a good soil for confirmation bias, its economics...

KFTG wrote:
I'm scheduling a coronavirus party soon. Everyone is welcome to join! MAGAts only.
I won't be there, I am just doing my part to rescue 'merica.


I wonder when the moment will come where Trump realizes that something killing predominately man and old people is killing a good chunk of his voters.

speedking wrote:
lugie wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

With luck? You mean you are hoping there are more infected?



Yes, of course.

If you had paid any attention to the factual information people have been contributing to this thread (instead of periodically dropping in to whine about the "tyrannical Democrat Governors destroying the economy to make Trump look bad" by ordering quarantines to protect the health of their citizens, as they have sworn an oath to do), you would know that finding a higher prevalence of antibodies in the overall population is a good thing because it would indicate that the case fatality rates would be tending toward the lower bounds of the estimates rather than the horrifying 5, 7, or 10% being reported from France, Spain and Italy, respectively.

Moreover, the higher the percentage of the population that has been infected with and recovered from COVID-19, the closer a society gets to reaching herd immunity and being able to fend off potential future waves resulting from new flare-ups.


This herd immunity would mean death of old, sick and disabled. A lot of crematoriums needed. A result would be a master race. Sounds familiar to anybody?


Does Trump have Telegram on his private phone?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 17296.html

Tugger wrote:
This idea of doing nothing, or limiting information, it's ridiculous!

If there is a forest fire you don't tell everyone "don't worry, sit tight" and then just let it burn. Have people wait patently until they see the fire coming towards them.

That is what some are suggesting we do. No! You fight fires with information and resources and keeping people out of its path as much as possible. That is being done with COVID19, that is what you must do.

And as is the case with most out of control fires, it gets that way because somewhere the initial threat of the fire wasn't apparent, so the fire grew to a point the authorities couldn't contain it easily and you have to instead move a shelter in place model and fight only where it is impacting people, and work to keep it from moving toward any population. But the people get to see the news about the fire, or the hurricane or whatever even is occurring and the government(s) respond and assist.

Tugg


Its short sighted beyond that. Lets assume your let if to rampant and kill millions of old people. That´s millions of houses coming to the market...... yeah, that will not cause any economic problems...
How many of those had in house care, someone for cleaning, where to old to fix stuff around the house themselves .....yeah, that will not have any effect on the labor market...

best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:04 am

art wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
art wrote:
I hear that the UK government is acquiring 3.5 million test kits to check for COVID-19 antibodies.. The purpose of these kits is to enable key workers in isolation to take a small blood sample themselves, send it to a lab and within 2 days discover if they are in a position to return to work i(rather than spending perhaps 14 days off work). . As I understand it, if this test were widely used it could give an indication of what proportion of the population has been infexced. With luck it would show there is - and has been - extensive asymptomatic or undiagnosed infection throughout the UK.

This new virus iha been described as a disease to which there is no immunity. I have been baffled by the notion that only a miniscule proportion of the population would become infected by a virus with a reproduction rate estimated to lie in the range of 2-3. If it turned out that millions of infections in the UK were indicated, that would be just brilliant!


With luck? You mean you are hoping there are more infected?


I think you may have missed my point.

Current UK figures are around 10,000 confirmed cases and around 500 deaths. If in fact the real number of people who have been infected was a million with 500 deaths then the death rate would be a hundredth of that which current figures show.


Would be 1/100th if those million have already recovered.
Mortality rate in Italy is now 10%, 1/100th that would end up killing some 60k UK Citizens, 1/10th would be 600k .....

best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 9304
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:02 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
lugie wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here is a study from Oxford university in Britain:





https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... f-u-k.html

So if this is in the right track, and only 433 people have died in the UK, how low can the mortality rate of this be?



Well this is a statistical model and needs a lot of testing of representative population samples (testing for active COVID cases and blood testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies) to be backed up and until then it's just one of many theories ranging from the very best (like this one) to the very worst case scenarios.
Of course, if this was true, it would be perfect news.

However, this seems to contradict all the evidence currently coming out of Spain and Italy.
Yes, there might be factors (such as a very high average age in Lombardia and Comunidad de Madrid, higher prevalence of frequent smoking especially in the male demographic) that make those areas more vulnerable to severe cases of a virus that causes pneumonia but the scenes playing in those areas don't appear to fit the narrative of a virus that, while infecting half the UK's population (i.e. over 30 million infected), has only caused 400-odd deaths.

The Comunidad de Madrid has around 4 million inhabitants and already over 2,000 deaths, with ICUs overflowing, ice skating rinks having to be turned into morgues and old people dying left behind in nursing homes. That seems like a very different Coronavirus than the one this statistical model is alluding to.


The mortality data coming out of the different nations seems to show how lost we are on this. Italy 10%, Iran 7%, Germany 0.5%. US 1.2%. The obvious question is this is all based on total infected that have tested positive, how about those who haven't been tested and carry COVID19, how low would the mortality rate go down? or hospitalizations for that matter?

I hope epidemiologists sit down and arrive to a consensus soon on what's the reality of this, because this seems to be all over the place, and extremely unreliable.


Mortality data is easy to interpret, as it largely depends on the availability of ICUs. If the health system is overwhelmed and the number of patients far exceeds the number of available ICUs it seems to reach 10% and more, if there are enough ICUs it is reduced to around 1-2%. I would dismiss data from Iran, as they are limited by the number of tests they can run.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:28 am

seahawk wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
lugie wrote:


Well this is a statistical model and needs a lot of testing of representative population samples (testing for active COVID cases and blood testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies) to be backed up and until then it's just one of many theories ranging from the very best (like this one) to the very worst case scenarios.
Of course, if this was true, it would be perfect news.

However, this seems to contradict all the evidence currently coming out of Spain and Italy.
Yes, there might be factors (such as a very high average age in Lombardia and Comunidad de Madrid, higher prevalence of frequent smoking especially in the male demographic) that make those areas more vulnerable to severe cases of a virus that causes pneumonia but the scenes playing in those areas don't appear to fit the narrative of a virus that, while infecting half the UK's population (i.e. over 30 million infected), has only caused 400-odd deaths.

The Comunidad de Madrid has around 4 million inhabitants and already over 2,000 deaths, with ICUs overflowing, ice skating rinks having to be turned into morgues and old people dying left behind in nursing homes. That seems like a very different Coronavirus than the one this statistical model is alluding to.


The mortality data coming out of the different nations seems to show how lost we are on this. Italy 10%, Iran 7%, Germany 0.5%. US 1.2%. The obvious question is this is all based on total infected that have tested positive, how about those who haven't been tested and carry COVID19, how low would the mortality rate go down? or hospitalizations for that matter?

I hope epidemiologists sit down and arrive to a consensus soon on what's the reality of this, because this seems to be all over the place, and extremely unreliable.


Mortality data is easy to interpret, as it largely depends on the availability of ICUs. If the health system is overwhelmed and the number of patients far exceeds the number of available ICUs it seems to reach 10% and more, if there are enough ICUs it is reduced to around 1-2%. I would dismiss data from Iran, as they are limited by the number of tests they can run.


yesterday he was still taunting that Germany is at only 0.4% .....

best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
art
Posts: 3223
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:31 am

art wrote:
Current UK figures are around 10,000 confirmed cases and around 500 deaths. If in fact the real number of people who have been infected was a million with 500 deaths then the death rate would be a hundredth of that which current figures show.


tommy1808 wrote:
Would be 1/100th if those million have already recovered.
Mortality rate in Italy is now 10%, 1/100th that would end up killing some 60k UK Citizens, 1/10th would be 600k .....

best regards
Thomas


I hope that everywhere the total number of people infected is far higher than the published figures. I guess that the number of fatalities with COVID-19 infection reported in Europe is pretty accurate while the number of infections is not known.

I still think that the approach should be to strictly isolate those most likely to be seriously affected, whereby they will likely put pressure on the hospital system if they catch COVID-19. If they live with others,include those, too. Isolating the whole population.does not seem such a good idea to me.

Apart from bringing life to a grinding halt, economic damage from near universal isolation is extreme. The more the economy is damaged, the less resources will be available to health services in the future to deal wirh disease in general. Would saving 50,000 from dying from coronavirus this year at the cost of reduced health resources next year resulting in 100,000 extra deaths from other diseases be a good idea? Which would be more tragic?
Last edited by art on Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

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