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scbriml
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:34 am

KFTG wrote:
I'm scheduling a coronavirus party soon. Everyone is welcome to join! MAGAts only.
I won't be there, I am just doing my part to rescue 'merica.


Kentucky beat you to it. It’s not going to end well.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/health/k ... index.html
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:54 am

art wrote:
Would saving 50,000 from dying from coronavirus this year at the cost of reduced health resources next year resulting in 100,000 extra deaths from other diseases be a good idea? Which would be more tragic?


one extra year means plenty of PPE and Ventilators being available, possibly a treatment regime that works fairly ok and a vaccine just months away.....

And unless you imprison everyone vulnerable, no shopping, no walk in the park, no doctor visit, no trip to the pharmacy, no visits, no nothing, you can´t protect them if it isn´t checked in the rest of the population. This is far, far more infectious than the flu as far as we can tell....

Young, healthy people, seem to have 0.1 ~0.2% mortality, so you better add a zero to your 50k.

best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
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Aesma
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:02 am

Yeah I don't see how this could cause reduced health care resources long term. It will be the reverse, with governments promising more investment, better salaries etc.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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seahawk
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:21 am

Go away from absolute numbers and start talking about percentages. With no measures about 2-5% of the population would die from Corona as long as there is no cure and vaccine.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:22 am

Aesma wrote:
Yeah I don't see how this could cause reduced health care resources long term. It will be the reverse, with governments promising more investment, better salaries etc.


I also see this as a possible silver lining - society is way too blasé about STEM and the necessity to have technical and scientific professions leading the way to all forms of progress. They may not be glamorous occupations to most young people, but they get our species to where we need to go.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:56 am

It's quite depressing to see people who appear to be enjoying this to some degree. It's like they can't stand for anyone to be optimistic and throw out pure fiction of 10% mortality rates and the like. The mere mention of hoping for the best sends them into a rage. That just isn't right.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:05 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
It's quite depressing to see people who appear to be enjoying this to some degree. It's like they can't stand for anyone to be optimistic and throw out pure fiction of 10% mortality rates and the like. The mere mention of hoping for the best sends them into a rage. That just isn't right.


Yeah .... much better to be an optimist and have two million or so people die in the USA alone, with zero data indicating the optimism is justified vs. the very real observed mortality rate of 10% once the healthcare system is overloaded.

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
art
Posts: 3222
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:06 am

tommy1808 wrote:
one extra year means plenty of PPE and Ventilators being available, possibly a treatment regime that works fairly ok and a vaccine just months away.....

And unless you imprison everyone vulnerable, no shopping, no walk in the park, no doctor visit, no trip to the pharmacy, no visits, no nothing, you can´t protect them if it isn´t checked in the rest of the population. This is far, far more infectious than the flu as far as we can tell....

best regards
Thomas


New COVID-19 law in UK today. I do not know what it says yet. The government also asked for volunteers to deliver shopping to the vulnerable, deliver drugs from pharmacy etc. In 24 hours 405,000 people volunteered, so the logistics of getting food and drugs to the vulnerable will not be a big problem. Doctors will mostly provide advice by phone.

Yes, people over 70 were already told not to go out except for exercise once a day, to get food or to visit the pharmacy. or if they cared for someone vulnerable (eg elderly parents). I will find out what the new law says later today.

Aesma wrote:
Yeah I don't see how this could cause reduced health care resources long term. It will be the reverse, with governments promising more investment, better salaries etc.


How does that work if gross domestic product has fallen severely? Government tax receipts fall if GDP falls. Company profits fall, so they pay less tax. Pay levels for labour fall, so there is less income tax paid. Employment levels fall turning tax payers into financial liabilities for governments. Sales tax falls.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:32 am

Jouhou wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:


I think a month lockdown is more intended to keep cases in check so hospitals can feasibly handle the load while we collectively get our shit together. We need ventilators, PPE, and test supplies being churned out before we can hit the unpause button. Test kits to finally test mild cases to actually isolate those who need to be, n95s for medical staff, ventilators for the sick. We also realistically need some sort of face mask, even cloth if that's all that's available, for workers to capture droplets and minimize spread.


If life should go on as before for the most part you probably need enough testing capacity to at least check the workforce every week or so, probably doable, and keep doing that until there is an effective vaccine.
With proper scale effects this should not amount to more than a few hundred USD/Person/year.

best regards
Thomas


Or check a person at first sign of respiratory illness, and then test everyone around them if they're positive. Much more cost effective and practical.


scales up nicely though. Just learned that Germany is at 500.000/tests per week or 6000 tests/million people/week.

best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
bgm
Posts: 2366
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:12 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
It's quite depressing to see people who appear to be enjoying this to some degree. It's like they can't stand for anyone to be optimistic and throw out pure fiction of 10% mortality rates and the like. The mere mention of hoping for the best sends them into a rage. That just isn't right.


Hate to break it to you, but I don't think the virus really cares if you're optimistic.
Less praying, more hand washing.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:17 pm

bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
It's quite depressing to see people who appear to be enjoying this to some degree. It's like they can't stand for anyone to be optimistic and throw out pure fiction of 10% mortality rates and the like. The mere mention of hoping for the best sends them into a rage. That just isn't right.


Hate to break it to you, but I don't think the virus really cares if you're optimistic.


maybe he can combine that with thoughts and prayers.... that seems to be a rather universal solutions.

best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
kalvado
Posts: 2496
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:48 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Yeah I don't see how this could cause reduced health care resources long term. It will be the reverse, with governments promising more investment, better salaries etc.


I also see this as a possible silver lining - society is way too blasé about STEM and the necessity to have technical and scientific professions leading the way to all forms of progress. They may not be glamorous occupations to most young people, but they get our species to where we need to go.

Frankly speaking, modern biology - which is a second best option here - is pretty close to STEM - sequencing, bioinformatics, all that stuff.
 
StuckinCMHland
Posts: 226
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:20 pm

bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
It's quite depressing to see people who appear to be enjoying this to some degree. It's like they can't stand for anyone to be optimistic and throw out pure fiction of 10% mortality rates and the like. The mere mention of hoping for the best sends them into a rage. That just isn't right.


Hate to break it to you, but I don't think the virus really cares if you're optimistic.


Hate to break it to you, but a positive attitude can help people trying to deal with this mess, instead of being in a panic or depressed.

Or is it better to assume we are all going to die from this and live in misery ?

Btw, if you do have a religious faith, prayers are good for you and your attitude, it Will also help people to help others affected by the disease. Thinking about others and hope is always good medicine for the human soul.
 
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Phosphorus
Posts: 815
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:30 pm

kalvado wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Yeah I don't see how this could cause reduced health care resources long term. It will be the reverse, with governments promising more investment, better salaries etc.


I also see this as a possible silver lining - society is way too blasé about STEM and the necessity to have technical and scientific professions leading the way to all forms of progress. They may not be glamorous occupations to most young people, but they get our species to where we need to go.

Frankly speaking, modern biology - which is a second best option here - is pretty close to STEM - sequencing, bioinformatics, all that stuff.


Biology is a "natural science" in my part of the world, historically ("natural sciences" plus "precise sciences" is as close to definition of STEM here, as it gets) . In the past, it was less math-driven than now. Either way, it relies on hard facts and findings can be cross-checked for confirmation.
If money flows into biology education and research, plenty of associated scientific fields get a boost, too.

All of these are world apart from what passes for some "university education" disciplines (".... studies") that abound these days...

(Sheesh, I thought some humanities disciplines in USSR were useless... At least those folks were put through a rigorous academic training and basic logic principles. Yes, with a Marxist-Leninist twist -- but there was so much cynicism, the psychological/ideological fallout was not as acute.)
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art
Posts: 3222
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:36 pm

StuckinCMHland wrote:
Hate to break it to you, but a positive attitude can help people trying to deal with this mess, instead of being in a panic or depressed.

Or is it better to assume we are all going to die from this and live in misery ?

Btw, if you do have a religious faith, prayers are good for you and your attitude, it Will also help people to help others affected by the disease. Thinking about others and hope is always good medicine for the human soul.


Or actually take positive action. Over 500,000 in UK have offered their services to shop and deliver for people in isolation, collect and deliver medecines for them, keep in contact with them by phone. That is actually doing something positive. That number of half a million may well rise in the coming days since the UK government is now appealing for 750,000 to help.
 
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par13del
Posts: 9919
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:43 pm

art wrote:
Would saving 50,000 from dying from coronavirus this year at the cost of reduced health resources next year resulting in 100,000 extra deaths from other diseases be a good idea? Which would be more tragic?

If that happens I am sure the experts will have something else to blame for the situation, they cannot by default say they were wrong, we rely on experts not being wrong.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:45 pm

StuckinCMHland wrote:
bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
It's quite depressing to see people who appear to be enjoying this to some degree. It's like they can't stand for anyone to be optimistic and throw out pure fiction of 10% mortality rates and the like. The mere mention of hoping for the best sends them into a rage. That just isn't right.


Hate to break it to you, but I don't think the virus really cares if you're optimistic.


Hate to break it to you, but a positive attitude can help people trying to deal with this mess, instead of being in a panic or depressed.

Or is it better to assume we are all going to die from this and live in misery ?

Btw, if you do have a religious faith, prayers are good for you and your attitude, it Will also help people to help others affected by the disease. Thinking about others and hope is always good medicine for the human soul.


no one says you have to be depressed, or panic more than is healthy. Meditation, with or without an imaginary friend involved, does of cause help with your attitude, but it does jack shit about the virus infecting you or not, killing you or not, or spreading from you to others or not.

People in Italy are very, very religious.. ... i am pretty sure they prayed and do pray a lot. But hey, you have plenty of attitude once your body is stiff.

best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
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par13del
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:51 pm

art wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Yeah I don't see how this could cause reduced health care resources long term. It will be the reverse, with governments promising more investment, better salaries etc.


How does that work if gross domestic product has fallen severely? Government tax receipts fall if GDP falls. Company profits fall, so they pay less tax. Pay levels for labour fall, so there is less income tax paid. Employment levels fall turning tax payers into financial liabilities for governments. Sales tax falls.

A mindset can be that if companies are no longer allowed to pay current exec compensation via bonus' and share buy backs are killed enough money will be there to make up the shortfall, note the high number of execs who are saying they will take no pay, the PR factor on that must be high, how effective is another story.
When the economies reopen we will see if there is a preference for those companies.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:55 pm

StuckinCMHland wrote:
bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
It's quite depressing to see people who appear to be enjoying this to some degree. It's like they can't stand for anyone to be optimistic and throw out pure fiction of 10% mortality rates and the like. The mere mention of hoping for the best sends them into a rage. That just isn't right.


Hate to break it to you, but I don't think the virus really cares if you're optimistic.


Hate to break it to you, but a positive attitude can help people trying to deal with this mess, instead of being in a panic or depressed.

Or is it better to assume we are all going to die from this and live in misery ?

Btw, if you do have a religious faith, prayers are good for you and your attitude, it Will also help people to help others affected by the disease. Thinking about others and hope is always good medicine for the human soul.


The virus does not really care if 9 healthy people and 1 infected person meet and all 10 are happy or depressed, religious or atheist, black or white... it will spread all the same. None of the measures in place are meant to fight the virus, they are meant to control the number of persons sick at the same time, nothing more, nothing less. The idea is to buy time until a cure is found.
 
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par13del
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:55 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
People in Italy are very, very religious.. ... i am pretty sure they prayed and do pray a lot. But hey, you have plenty of attitude once your body is stiff.

best regards
Thomas

Think I read once that Italy is mostly Catholic and also one of the highest users of contraception, as with all things religion, one cannot argue faith.
Two sides will appear for the deaths, remove the sinners or elevate the worthy to the afterlife.
 
virage
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:42 pm

The other day I watched this guy who analyzed the reasons behind the media coronavirus panic. Somewhat lengthy, but we've got time, being stuck at home:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khtCTJhXlsg
 
THS214
Posts: 325
Joined: Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:01 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:02 pm

art wrote:
StuckinCMHland wrote:
Hate to break it to you, but a positive attitude can help people trying to deal with this mess, instead of being in a panic or depressed.

Or is it better to assume we are all going to die from this and live in misery ?

Btw, if you do have a religious faith, prayers are good for you and your attitude, it Will also help people to help others affected by the disease. Thinking about others and hope is always good medicine for the human soul.


Or actually take positive action. Over 500,000 in UK have offered their services to shop and deliver for people in isolation, collect and deliver medecines for them, keep in contact with them by phone. That is actually doing something positive. That number of half a million may well rise in the coming days since the UK government is now appealing for 750,000 to help.


How are you going to deliver by phone? OK leave everything out of the door and the call them that delivery has arrived. Unfortunately that's 500 000 with possible infection. Some off them are infected and not all are hygienic. Don't get me wrong but this is a laboratory test and I hope it succeed. Some of those deliveries will be stolen.

Edit

One more thing. How is the radius of deliveries checked? Someone infected spread in at stores, pharmacy and hand contact with everything delivered. Wish all the luck for this experiment.
Last edited by THS214 on Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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DL717
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:06 pm

seahawk wrote:
Go away from absolute numbers and start talking about percentages. With no measures about 2-5% of the population would die from Corona as long as there is no cure and vaccine.


Just context. Well come out of this just fine. The world didn’t end with this:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... -h1n1.html

I’m at the point now where the question turns to asking how many people will die from this vs. die from starvation under the weight of a massive economic depression.
Welcome to Nothingburgers. May I take your order?
 
THS214
Posts: 325
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:24 pm

DL717 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Go away from absolute numbers and start talking about percentages. With no measures about 2-5% of the population would die from Corona as long as there is no cure and vaccine.


Just context. Well come out of this just fine. The world didn’t end with this:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resour ... -h1n1.html

I’m at the point now where the question turns to asking how many people will die from this vs. die from starvation under the weight of a massive economic depression.


The world didn't end and it won't this time. At the moment we don't know. This will end in a few months if the virus don't mutate. If it does the second round would be more severe.

About your question about starvation versus this; Starvation is caused by too many newborn in an area with a lot of people without agriculture etc. (so not enough food as the land can't carry) Its not just enough for the population. Most of the world knows how to deal with starvation so it doesn't affect those who deal with it. Corona is something different.

In the future (did you ask about developed countries?) we simply don't know at this time yet I don't believe it will happen.
 
Indy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:33 pm

If you want to get a better indication what the real death rate is, look at Germany. They have been doing extensive testing from the beginning. They have tested more than just the very sick and dying. They've tested people who've appeared healthy and on up the chain. They've found people who didn't even realize they were infected. What it means is they have a more accurate reading as to how deadly the virus really is. Their death rate is about 0.4%. It isn't that there is anything special about their treatments. It is all about the testing. I believe you'd find the global death rate would crash to similar numbers if better and more comprehensive testing were to be done. If you only test the worst cases in any illness, it will appear to be worse than it really is.

I suspect if you sampled those 0.4% of the people, you will likely find they are the usual suspects. Meaning they are likely elderly and people with underlying health problems. What does this mean? It means you could have a policy that requires these at risk people to lock down and self quarantine while the rest of the population goes on about their daily lives. You cannot shut down the world every time a virus comes out. Protect the most vulnerable and let the rest maintain the global economy.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12177
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:45 pm

Indy wrote:
Their death rate is about 0.4%. .


More than 0.5% now and it was 0.2% not so long ago... it will trend up to the 1~1.5% ish you see in other countries with healthcare systems not overwhelmed and a mature epidemic.

Germany also seems to be hit mostly by a mild strain...

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
Jalap
Posts: 525
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:24 pm

DL717 wrote:
I’m at the point now where the question turns to asking how many people will die from this vs. die from starvation under the weight of a massive economic depression.

The food production will hardly be affected at all.
People in the West can only starve to death if this is what the majority wants.
Or if the country falls into anarchy. Then the food will be for those who own the largest guns. Hope there aren't too many guns in your country...
Last edited by Jalap on Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
T4thH
Posts: 790
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:25 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Indy wrote:
Their death rate is about 0.4%. .


More than 0.5% now and it was 0.2% not so long ago... it will trend up to the 1~1.5% ish you see in other countries with healthcare systems not overwhelmed and a mature epidemic.

Germany also seems to be hit mostly by a mild strain...

Best regards
Thomas


This is the same strain as in Italy, so there is no miracle strain, which was so nice, to hit only Germany and the rest of the world get the bad one. This is just conspiracy xxx from some populist stupids (you are free to use any bad word for the xxx).

The death rate will be even lower than 0.5% and pretty sure somewhere between 0.2 to 0.5%, as also in Germany many of the mild or asymptotic cases have been missed. In Germany, they are planning to perform some epidemic tests rounds, to identify the total number/% of infected and the total death rate e.g. But till now, these immunogenity speed tests, which will be used, are still in development.

Pretty sure, the tests have been done early and as near as best possible in Germany, as can be seen also regarding of the average age of the tested, confirmed positive with Coronavirus (this is 45 years) and the average age of Germans (this is between 44.5 and 45 years now).This was done, to stop the outbreak and the infection chains early, and it has worked (also it has at least only slowed it). But this will also now change. They will now reduce the testing to patients, who are serious ill and patients, who are high risk patients, health care staff or nursing home staff e.g. It is not any more useful, to test everyone; who is now lightly sick shall just stay home for two or three weeks.

And as opposite example: In Italy the average age oft he positive tests is 65. So in Italy, regular only the serious ill patients, when they have been seen at hospital, have been tested. So in Italy, this is just the death rate of the serious ill patients, who have been hospitalized.
Last edited by T4thH on Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
art
Posts: 3222
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:27 pm

THS214 wrote:
art wrote:
StuckinCMHland wrote:
Hate to break it to you, but a positive attitude can help people trying to deal with this mess, instead of being in a panic or depressed.

Or is it better to assume we are all going to die from this and live in misery ?

Btw, if you do have a religious faith, prayers are good for you and your attitude, it Will also help people to help others affected by the disease. Thinking about others and hope is always good medicine for the human soul.


Or actually take positive action. Over 500,000 in UK have offered their services to shop and deliver for people in isolation, collect and deliver medecines for them, keep in contact with them by phone. That is actually doing something positive. That number of half a million may well rise in the coming days since the UK government is now appealing for 750,000 to help.


How are you going to deliver by phone? OK leave everything out of the door and the call them that delivery has arrived. Unfortunately that's 500 000 with possible infection. Some off them are infected and not all are hygienic. Don't get me wrong but this is a laboratory test and I hope it succeed. Some of those deliveries will be stolen.

Edit

One more thing. How is the radius of deliveries checked? Someone infected spread in at stores, pharmacy and hand contact with everything delivered. Wish all the luck for this experiment.


i think the idea is to ensure that the vulnerable, who have been confined to quarters, so to speak, do not go short of food and medecines. If they have no direct contact except perhaps with a caring relative, their chances of catching the virus are much lower than if they go out to the supermarket/shop/pharmacy where they will almost certainly be in contact with several people. Protecting the vulnerable protects all, doesn't it, because if they should fall ill and need ICU care they are likely to require a lot of treatment for quite a time. That monopolises use of a bed, a ventilator, uses time of several medics so lreducing the risk of them becoming infected is highly desirable.

Sure, things get handled in handling goods with a risk of packaging becoming contagiious but we are talking about infection risk reducction, not risk elimination to reduce the demand on ICU resourses.

Regards calling them when they are in isolation, the intention is to check how they are doing on their own and and to reduce feelings of loneliness.
Last edited by art on Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 9304
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:39 pm

T4thH wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Indy wrote:
Their death rate is about 0.4%. .


More than 0.5% now and it was 0.2% not so long ago... it will trend up to the 1~1.5% ish you see in other countries with healthcare systems not overwhelmed and a mature epidemic.

Germany also seems to be hit mostly by a mild strain...

Best regards
Thomas


This is the same strain as in Italy, so there is no miracle strain, which was so nice, to hit only Germany and the rest of the world get the bad one. This is just conspiracy xxx from some populist stupids (you are free to use any bad word for the xxx).

The death rate will be even lower than 0.5% and pretty sure somewhere between 0.2 to 0.5%, as also in Germany many of the mild or asymptotic cases have been missed. In Germany, they are planning to perform some epidemic tests rounds, to identify the total number/% of infected and the total death rate e.g. But till now, these immunogenity speed tests, which will be used, are still in development.

Pretty sure, the tests have been done early and as near as best possible in Germany, as can be seen also regarding of the average age of the tested, confirmed positive with Coronavirus (this is 45 years) and the average age of Germans (this is between 44.5 and 45 years now).This was done, to stop the outbreak and the infection chains early, and it has worked (also it has at least only slowed it). But this will also now change. They will now reduce the testing to patients, who are serious ill and patients, who are high risk patients, health care staff or nursing home staff e.g. It is not any more useful, to test everyone; who is now lightly sick shall just stay home for two or three weeks.

And as opposite example: In Italy the average age oft he positive tests is 65. So in Italy, regular only the serious ill patients, when they have been seen at hospital, have been tested. So in Italy, this is just the death rate of the serious ill patients, who have been hospitalized.


The death rate is low as long as you have ICUs for all critical patients, once you do not it goes up.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:43 pm

bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
It's quite depressing to see people who appear to be enjoying this to some degree. It's like they can't stand for anyone to be optimistic and throw out pure fiction of 10% mortality rates and the like. The mere mention of hoping for the best sends them into a rage. That just isn't right.


Hate to break it to you, but I don't think the virus really cares if you're optimistic.


Your nihilism is a reflection of your political views and agenda.

You prefer to tell someone there is no hope, and that government is the solution to all problems, as you stated many times.

I understand leftists and neo-marxists need to spread post modernism and preach nihilism since its the only way their views really are worth talking about. BTW, which country are you posting from? have asked 5 times to no response.

You seem very happy this COVID-19 situation is going on, hopefully those close to you (if you have) aren't affected by it, perhaps you don't even care. Preach them your all your negativism and panic if you like.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:46 pm

seahawk wrote:
T4thH wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

More than 0.5% now and it was 0.2% not so long ago... it will trend up to the 1~1.5% ish you see in other countries with healthcare systems not overwhelmed and a mature epidemic.

Germany also seems to be hit mostly by a mild strain...

Best regards
Thomas


This is the same strain as in Italy, so there is no miracle strain, which was so nice, to hit only Germany and the rest of the world get the bad one. This is just conspiracy xxx from some populist stupids (you are free to use any bad word for the xxx).

The death rate will be even lower than 0.5% and pretty sure somewhere between 0.2 to 0.5%, as also in Germany many of the mild or asymptotic cases have been missed. In Germany, they are planning to perform some epidemic tests rounds, to identify the total number/% of infected and the total death rate e.g. But till now, these immunogenity speed tests, which will be used, are still in development.

Pretty sure, the tests have been done early and as near as best possible in Germany, as can be seen also regarding of the average age of the tested, confirmed positive with Coronavirus (this is 45 years) and the average age of Germans (this is between 44.5 and 45 years now).This was done, to stop the outbreak and the infection chains early, and it has worked (also it has at least only slowed it). But this will also now change. They will now reduce the testing to patients, who are serious ill and patients, who are high risk patients, health care staff or nursing home staff e.g. It is not any more useful, to test everyone; who is now lightly sick shall just stay home for two or three weeks.

And as opposite example: In Italy the average age oft he positive tests is 65. So in Italy, regular only the serious ill patients, when they have been seen at hospital, have been tested. So in Italy, this is just the death rate of the serious ill patients, who have been hospitalized.


The death rate is low as long as you have ICUs for all critical patients, once you do not it goes up.


That's hasn't been established. Gov. Cuomo of NY stated that the people dying are mostly those who have been in ICU for 20 to 30 days. So if ICU is the key to saving lives, that's not been proven yet.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
art
Posts: 3222
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:47 pm

Indy wrote:
You cannot shut down the world every time a virus comes out. Protect the most vulnerable and let the rest maintain the global economy.


Go along with that. I think that is a good approach.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:49 pm

T4thH wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Indy wrote:
Their death rate is about 0.4%. .


More than 0.5% now and it was 0.2% not so long ago... it will trend up to the 1~1.5% ish you see in other countries with healthcare systems not overwhelmed and a mature epidemic.

Germany also seems to be hit mostly by a mild strain...

Best regards
Thomas


This is the same strain as in Italy, so there is no miracle strain, which was so nice, to hit only Germany and the rest of the world get the bad one. This is just conspiracy xxx from some populist stupids (you are free to use any bad word for the xxx).

The death rate will be even lower than 0.5% and pretty sure somewhere between 0.2 to 0.5%, as also in Germany many of the mild or asymptotic cases have been missed. In Germany, they are planning to perform some epidemic tests rounds, to identify the total number/% of infected and the total death rate e.g. But till now, these immunogenity speed tests, which will be used, are still in development.

Pretty sure, the tests have been done early and as near as best possible in Germany, as can be seen also regarding of the average age of the tested, confirmed positive with Coronavirus (this is 45 years) and the average age of Germans (this is between 44.5 and 45 years now).This was done, to stop the outbreak and the infection chains early, and it has worked (also it has at least only slowed it). But this will also now change. They will now reduce the testing to patients, who are serious ill and patients, who are high risk patients, health care staff or nursing home staff e.g. It is not any more useful, to test everyone; who is now lightly sick shall just stay home for two or three weeks.

And as opposite example: In Italy the average age oft he positive tests is 65. So in Italy, regular only the serious ill patients, when they have been seen at hospital, have been tested. So in Italy, this is just the death rate of the serious ill patients, who have been hospitalized.


I have been saying all along, if Germany has a 0.5% mortality rate, and they aggressively tested early on, if you increase the number of tested and as a result the infected rise, and the number of dead stay steady, this can easily reach flu levels.

COVID-19 has a huge difference from the flu, it is highly contagious and those who don't have any symptoms can transmit to others, that's why we are seeing high numbers of people in hospitals and in ICU's. Despite the fact that these same people are the same who are more vulnerable with the FLU. They are all coming at the same time because this thing is more easily transmitted. That it has a higher mortality rate, they are still trying to get into a consensus on that. So we don't know yet.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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seahawk
Posts: 9304
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:52 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
T4thH wrote:

This is the same strain as in Italy, so there is no miracle strain, which was so nice, to hit only Germany and the rest of the world get the bad one. This is just conspiracy xxx from some populist stupids (you are free to use any bad word for the xxx).

The death rate will be even lower than 0.5% and pretty sure somewhere between 0.2 to 0.5%, as also in Germany many of the mild or asymptotic cases have been missed. In Germany, they are planning to perform some epidemic tests rounds, to identify the total number/% of infected and the total death rate e.g. But till now, these immunogenity speed tests, which will be used, are still in development.

Pretty sure, the tests have been done early and as near as best possible in Germany, as can be seen also regarding of the average age of the tested, confirmed positive with Coronavirus (this is 45 years) and the average age of Germans (this is between 44.5 and 45 years now).This was done, to stop the outbreak and the infection chains early, and it has worked (also it has at least only slowed it). But this will also now change. They will now reduce the testing to patients, who are serious ill and patients, who are high risk patients, health care staff or nursing home staff e.g. It is not any more useful, to test everyone; who is now lightly sick shall just stay home for two or three weeks.

And as opposite example: In Italy the average age oft he positive tests is 65. So in Italy, regular only the serious ill patients, when they have been seen at hospital, have been tested. So in Italy, this is just the death rate of the serious ill patients, who have been hospitalized.


The death rate is low as long as you have ICUs for all critical patients, once you do not it goes up.


That's hasn't been established. Gov. Cuomo of NY stated that the people dying are mostly those who have been in ICU for 20 to 30 days. So if ICU is the key to saving lives, that's not been proven yet.


Only Jesus can save your life,
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:53 pm

Indy wrote:
You cannot shut down the world every time a virus comes out. Protect the most vulnerable and let the rest maintain the global economy.


Many people are afraid to say this, because they are afraid of looking not compassionate with those who are vulnerable. Others prefer to keep everything closed because they have a political agenda.

We are talking about a possible depression, that's decades of economic calamity, and possibly millions dead. But if you wish to talk about avoiding this, you are labeled as a person who puts money before health. How stupid can that be? health is always conditioned to money. Even if you preach a government run health care system. you need funds, you can't just make them up from thin air. If not ask the soviet union.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
virage
Posts: 46
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2010 11:59 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:13 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Indy wrote:
You cannot shut down the world every time a virus comes out. Protect the most vulnerable and let the rest maintain the global economy.


Many people are afraid to say this, because they are afraid of looking not compassionate with those who are vulnerable. Others prefer to keep everything closed because they have a political agenda.

We are talking about a possible depression, that's decades of economic calamity, and possibly millions dead. But if you wish to talk about avoiding this, you are labeled as a person who puts money before health. How stupid can that be?


That's exactly what people are saying, like this mathematician, who points out errors in statistics and modeling. He expects more people will die from heart attacks related to the economic crisis than from the virus itself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khtCTJhXlsg
 
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Tugger
Posts: 9838
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:31 pm

Indy wrote:
You cannot shut down the world every time a virus comes out. Protect the most vulnerable and let the rest maintain the global economy.

Absolutely. Here, here :thumbsup: Very much agree.

The problem this time was that morons ignored the problem that was seen coming as it developed and those same "leaders" did nothing to access the tools that have been created and put into place to prevent large scale problems like this from spreading uncontrolled.

I am hopeful that the new leadership team will learn from this massive trillion dollar blunder and instead rebuild response teams and plans and listen when the next crisis looms.

And some people seem to focus on the "dying" when the actual issue is resources and the fact that as in war, it is not the dead that eat resources, it is the injured.

In this case, the fact that if 5% of Americans come down with severe problems from the virus (some reports put it higher, near 10%, I am halving that), that would be some 17 million people needing medical care and assistance in a relatively short period of time. And the capacity for that just isn't there. You have to plan and work to prevent overwhelming capacity of available resources. Not as some here would have it, just digging enough graves for the dead.

Tugg
Last edited by Tugger on Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
bgm
Posts: 2366
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:37 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:39 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
BTW, which country are you posting from? have asked 5 times to no response.


Nambia.
Less praying, more hand washing.
 
T4thH
Posts: 790
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:48 pm

virage wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Indy wrote:
You cannot shut down the world every time a virus comes out. Protect the most vulnerable and let the rest maintain the global economy.


Many people are afraid to say this, because they are afraid of looking not compassionate with those who are vulnerable. Others prefer to keep everything closed because they have a political agenda.

We are talking about a possible depression, that's decades of economic calamity, and possibly millions dead. But if you wish to talk about avoiding this, you are labeled as a person who puts money before health. How stupid can that be?


That's exactly what people are saying, like this mathematician, who points out errors in statistics and modeling. He expects more people will die from heart attacks related to the economic crisis than from the virus itself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khtCTJhXlsg

Let us say, 0.3% of these, who got it, will die. At least around 60% will get it. You will have a death rate of 0,3% only, when the health care system is accordingly, else you will have a higher number, let us say, if it completely fails, 0.4 to 0.5 %. and more than 60% (let us say 75%)
So 100 million and 0.3%/60%: 180.000 death-> 8. billion (global): 14.4 million
So 100 million and 0.45%/75%: 337.500 death->8 billion (global): 27 million.
Of course, there are other important points, like will there be an immunization (and when), will it be possible to protect most of the elderly/high risk?

This my estimation, so just my calculation, so something between 15 and 30 million globally. You are free to make your own estimations, but if they are too silly....do not post them here please, go to the next conspiracy or breitbart forum, so it will fit well between, "why we have never been on the moon" and "Conid 19 by masturbation".
 
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Aesma
Posts: 12515
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:56 pm

art wrote:
New COVID-19 law in UK today. I do not know what it says yet. The government also asked for volunteers to deliver shopping to the vulnerable, deliver drugs from pharmacy etc. In 24 hours 405,000 people volunteered, so the logistics of getting food and drugs to the vulnerable will not be a big problem. Doctors will mostly provide advice by phone.

Yes, people over 70 were already told not to go out except for exercise once a day, to get food or to visit the pharmacy. or if they cared for someone vulnerable (eg elderly parents). I will find out what the new law says later today.


The UK has changed its stance completely, that's why they asked for volunteers to deliver things. They're saying vulnerable people should stay at home for 12 weeks ! Is that optimism ? Trump is talking about packed churches in a few weeks (nice way to spread the virus).

I do think that some kind of quarantine for the vulnerable while the rest of people go back to work will be the solution at some point, maybe with everyone wearing a face mask outside for the next 12-18 months ? So these volunteers or some similar organization will be needed.

art wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Yeah I don't see how this could cause reduced health care resources long term. It will be the reverse, with governments promising more investment, better salaries etc.


How does that work if gross domestic product has fallen severely? Government tax receipts fall if GDP falls. Company profits fall, so they pay less tax. Pay levels for labour fall, so there is less income tax paid. Employment levels fall turning tax payers into financial liabilities for governments. Sales tax falls.


The usual, there will be a deficit.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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seahawk
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:57 pm

Italy and Spain show that the mortality is higher than 0,X% once the health care system fails.
 
T4thH
Posts: 790
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:31 pm

seahawk wrote:
Italy and Spain show that the mortality is higher than 0,X% once the health care system fails.

As already stated....the number from Italy and Spain only show one thing: If only test these, who are severe or critical ill hospitalized, than you will only get the death rate of the severe and critical ill hospitalized.

This has nothing to do with the real world of death per total number of Coronavirus patients.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:32 pm

These Swedes they are really such "bad" people, they prefer money over health:

Despite Coronavirus, Sweden Refuses To Shutter Businesses and Limit Gatherings
The Scandinavian country is betting against draconian restrictions and in favor of the free movement of people and goods.


https://reason.com/2020/03/25/despite-c ... atherings/

Whereas in the 'money loving' US, more than 3 million people lost their jobs and applied for unemployment benefits, and this is only the beginning.
Sweden only has 2,840 infected and more than 70 deaths.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:15 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
These Swedes they are really such "bad" people, they prefer money over health:

Despite Coronavirus, Sweden Refuses To Shutter Businesses and Limit Gatherings
The Scandinavian country is betting against draconian restrictions and in favor of the free movement of people and goods.


https://reason.com/2020/03/25/despite-c ... atherings/

Whereas in the 'money loving' US, more than 3 million people lost their jobs and applied for unemployment benefits, and this is only the beginning.
Sweden only has 2,840 infected and more than 70 deaths.


And this is where your math fails yet again.

Sweden has a higher infection rate and death rate per million people than the US does. The recent trends indicate a spreading virus in Sweden gaining steam. So explain how this is better again?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:21 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
These Swedes they are really such "bad" people, they prefer money over health:

Despite Coronavirus, Sweden Refuses To Shutter Businesses and Limit Gatherings
The Scandinavian country is betting against draconian restrictions and in favor of the free movement of people and goods.


https://reason.com/2020/03/25/despite-c ... atherings/

Whereas in the 'money loving' US, more than 3 million people lost their jobs and applied for unemployment benefits, and this is only the beginning.
Sweden only has 2,840 infected and more than 70 deaths.


And this is where your math fails yet again.

Sweden has a higher infection rate and death rate per million people than the US does. The recent trends indicate a spreading virus in Sweden gaining steam. So explain how this is better again?


I am not saying its better at least they are not panicking and they are carrying on with their lives. So much for us being greedy and individualistic.

BTW, numbers from NYC today, 10% of all beds in NY (53,000) are being occupied by corona virus patients. We are still not seeing Italy in NY despite being the epicenter of coronavirus in the US. They expected their hospitals to be in utter chaos early this week, now they are expecting that for next week. It seems that Italy has so far been an outlier in all of this, and we have based our panic and everything on that. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/nyre ... e=Homepage

And what ever happened to your projection that there would have been an additional 400 deaths by today in the US. Another projection that failed. Panic, panic, that's what's going on, as the NYT piece saying a hospital was 'apocalyptic' because 13 people died.

Do you really hope things get bad because of some sort of agenda or just because you are trying to prove a point?
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Tugger
Posts: 9838
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:27 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
I am not saying its better at least they are not panicking and they are carrying on with their lives.

So if it is not "better" are you advocating doing something "worse"? To my reading you are saying it is better.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 10165
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:29 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
These Swedes they are really such "bad" people, they prefer money over health:



https://reason.com/2020/03/25/despite-c ... atherings/

Whereas in the 'money loving' US, more than 3 million people lost their jobs and applied for unemployment benefits, and this is only the beginning.
Sweden only has 2,840 infected and more than 70 deaths.


And this is where your math fails yet again.

Sweden has a higher infection rate and death rate per million people than the US does. The recent trends indicate a spreading virus in Sweden gaining steam. So explain how this is better again?


I am not saying its better at least they are not panicking and they are carrying on with their lives. So much for us being greedy and individualistic.

BTW, numbers from NYC today, 10% of all beds in NY (53,000) are being occupied by corona virus patients. We are still not seeing Italy in NY despite being the epicenter of coronavirus in the US. They expected their hospitals to be in utter chaos early this week, now they are expecting that for next week. It seems that Italy has so far been an outlier in all of this, and we have based our panic and everything on that. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/nyre ... e=Homepage

And what ever happened to your projection that there would have been an additional 400 deaths by today in the US. Another projection that failed. Panic, panic, that's what's going on, as the NYT piece saying a hospital was 'apocalyptic' because 13 people died.

Do you really hope things get bad because of some sort of agenda or just because you are trying to prove a point?



10 % so yesterday 3800, today 5300. Tomorrow 7-8 K. You do realize patients are taking beds faster than they can be built right>

300 deaths will come today or tomorrow. The math indicates it. If I flip a coin ,I have a 50% chance of landing on heads or tails, but the next 8 flips might be all heads. It will eventually hit the average.

As for the deaths, why are you inflating and saying 400? I gave a range and you choose to chose the highest. Is that honest on your side?

Please tell me.


13 people dying on respirators is apocalyptic in one hospital. Please tell me how you think it isn't.

I don't hope things get bad. I hope that things get better, but folks like yourself are giving those that don't care to social distance more of a reason to help keep spreading this disease. Until we see that curve go negative and back to nothing, we have an issue with a very deadly virus.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:31 pm

Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
I am not saying its better at least they are not panicking and they are carrying on with their lives.

So if it is not "better" are you advocating doing something "worse"? To my reading you are saying it is better.

Tugg


Well, I think that we might have over reacted just a bit here submitting 100% of the population to a lock-down. Those who are not vulnerable and can carry on with their lives and work should be allowed do.

Sweden which many leftists tend to tell us Americans we should be are doing something totally different, and if it were the US or Trump promoting this, I can hear how they would be railing against our 'inhumanity' for not shutting down the economy and the country.

We are starting to see the effects of this, more than 3 million people applied for unemployment benefits. We are paying a price. I hope the WH releases the new guidelines and this ends.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 732
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:33 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

And this is where your math fails yet again.

Sweden has a higher infection rate and death rate per million people than the US does. The recent trends indicate a spreading virus in Sweden gaining steam. So explain how this is better again?


I am not saying its better at least they are not panicking and they are carrying on with their lives. So much for us being greedy and individualistic.

BTW, numbers from NYC today, 10% of all beds in NY (53,000) are being occupied by corona virus patients. We are still not seeing Italy in NY despite being the epicenter of coronavirus in the US. They expected their hospitals to be in utter chaos early this week, now they are expecting that for next week. It seems that Italy has so far been an outlier in all of this, and we have based our panic and everything on that. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/nyre ... e=Homepage

And what ever happened to your projection that there would have been an additional 400 deaths by today in the US. Another projection that failed. Panic, panic, that's what's going on, as the NYT piece saying a hospital was 'apocalyptic' because 13 people died.

Do you really hope things get bad because of some sort of agenda or just because you are trying to prove a point?



10 % so yesterday 3800, today 5300. Tomorrow 7-8 K. You do realize patients are taking beds faster than they can be built right>

300 deaths will come today or tomorrow. The math indicates it. If I flip a coin ,I have a 50% chance of landing on heads or tails, but the next 8 flips might be all heads. It will eventually hit the average.

As for the deaths, why are you inflating and saying 400? I gave a range and you choose to chose the highest. Is that honest on your side?

Please tell me.


13 people dying on respirators is apocalyptic in one hospital. Please tell me how you think it isn't.

I don't hope things get bad. I hope that things get better, but folks like yourself are giving those that don't care to social distance more of a reason to help keep spreading this disease. Until we see that curve go negative and back to nothing, we have an issue with a very deadly virus.


Have you any idea how many people die in a hospital on a normal day?

If you really hope for things to be better, then take a listen to Dr. Birx, and stop spreading panic and exaggerated projections.

"The numbers that have been put out there are actually very frightening to people," Birx said. "But I can tell you, if you go back and look at Wuhan and Hubei and all of these provinces — when they talk about 60,000 people being infected, even if you said, 'Oh right, well there's asymptomatics and all of that,' so you get to 600,000 people out of 80 million. That is nowhere close to the numbers that you see people putting out there. I think it has frightened the American people."
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... hole-story


Thus far this virus has not caused the chaos and havoc we have seen in Italy, and even in Wuhan, that doesnt mean it might get there, but it hasn't. We should prepare though, I agree.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister

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