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marcelh
Posts: 953
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:52 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
marcelh wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
In my opinion, I have yet to see any positive result of stopping the world's economy over this, and locking down billions of people, when in reality this is mostly a catastrophe based on deaths in Wuhan China, Northern Italy, Iran and parts of Spain.


So you want to spread a pandemic virus with no vaccin around the globe? Trying to establish a new world order?



What I think is we should just keep at home those vulnerable, those on the age groups that are at risk. The rest of us should carry on. That's been my belief for a long time and I have posted the same thing many times in this thread.
I care about future generations having an economy that would allow them for an education as the one we have, and also health services as we have enjoyed. All of that could cease to exist with an economic depression.


You still will have a huge group of "non vulnerable", which need to be hospitalized because of the virus.
 
Varsity1
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:04 pm

Like it or not this is world war 3. The enemy is a virus.

We have to lock down, it's the the only weapon we have right now. Until someone, somewhere, develops a better weapon we will continue to use the best strategy we've got. It's crude and brutal, much like trench warfare looks today, but it is effective. I encourage everyone to participate as much as possible. Every case counts.

It might be difficult to see a positive conclusion to this, but I do have my bet on man kind. Everyone on the planet is working on this.
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par13del
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:32 pm

So a harsh question, should we deny resources to those who willingly defied the lock down orders so that they are available for those who have followed the orders but were infected PRIOR to the lock down?
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2548
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:39 pm

par13del wrote:
So a harsh question, should we deny resources to those who willingly defied the lock down orders so that they are available for those who have followed the orders but were infected PRIOR to the lock down?


No, that would only make people more desperate.

I think fines work. They're writing fines for people all over Europe at the moment. And it seems like most people do respect the quarantine.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:41 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Italy has been on lock-down for more than 3 weeks. Infections haven't declined yet.


Please stop posting false or misleading claims.

The number of infections will never decline since it's just a count of how many people have tested positive. When someone recovers from Covid-19, they don't reduce the infected count by one. Other data available on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries shows how many have recovered.

You need to look at daily new cases numbers in my previous post which are levelling off and declining in both Italy and Spain. New infections are declining.


There seems not to be much testing in Italy for those with 'mild symptoms', so even those numbers you posted aren't to be accurate

Galli explained that as the emergency situation rapidly deteriorated over the past month, Italy focused its testing only on people showing severe symptoms in areas with high epidemic intensity - the result, experts say, is that the currently available numbers produce a statistical artefact, a distortion.


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/ ... 05536.html

I think this goes to the other countries in Europe too.


We won’t know the true number of people who are infected but recovered or had ‘mild’ cases until the serology tests for antibodies are ready.

In any case, the mitigation measures will be needed until epidemiologists and public health managers see that the growth curves have flattened to levels the healthcare system can handle. That’s why it’s imperative that people cooperate and convince others to so that the most painful period needn’t last any longer than necessary.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
aaden
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:43 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
sebolino wrote:

Very disturbing comment. Why are so many people like you blinded ?
The problem is not the number of death, it's the saturation of the healthcare system, which proves that we're facing something totally unusual and unforseen.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyre ... itals.html


I am not blinded, I am just not convinced that this is an overall solution or remedy that ultimately can cost more lives in the long run.

And that piece you cited, its extremely sensationalist and has nothing to do with bed capacity, but rather logistics. 13 deaths in a hospital is 'apocalyptic'? have you ever seen how many people die in a hospital in a normal day? Maybe you haven't that's why you believe that its apocalyptic.

Come back with 30 or 40 dead in a hospital for coronavirus so we can start talking about 'apocalyptic'. The NYT and their writers are doing the utmost to create panic out of nothing yet occurring. If that's apocalyptic tell me how can we describe Italy with almost 1000 dead per day.


The real question is where are you getting the misinformation driving these unscientific conclusions?

Isolation and social distancing is already having a measurable impact on case growth, especially in places that did so more aggressively:

Image

These are good indications these places won’t be seeing their healthcare systems completely overwhelmed.



Aaron can you share your sources for the graph? I can't find much on the declining numbers.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 299
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:47 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
Like it or not this is world war 3. The enemy is a virus.

We have to lock down, it's the the only weapon we have right now. Until someone, somewhere, develops a better weapon we will continue to use the best strategy we've got. It's crude and brutal, much like trench warfare looks today, but it is effective. I encourage everyone to participate as much as possible. Every case counts.

It might be difficult to see a positive conclusion to this, but I do have my bet on man kind. Everyone on the planet is working on this.


I think that is drastically overstating it. People are wildly misreporting death rates and implying World War II level death counts, which is a misrepresentation.*

*We know the body counts. They are significant. But we don’t know the prevalence rate. We need to specifically track if the entire infected population dies faster than people would without the virus. These are the most basic metrics of the danger level. Yet unavailable. I am merely saying we don’t know the danger level. Italy may show us the upper limit of the danger. And that may be fairly mild. For example, if 50% of Italians have the virus, and 50% of deaths test positive, it means the virus is having no effect on the death rate of Italy. I believe it does have an effect, but not as big as alarmists say. The media is specifically quoting only the most aggressive estimates. That’s not How real science works.

The tragic cost is this. In the US for example. We have 330 million people. One month of shutdown costs 330 million months, but in reality the disruption is terribly far greater. An average US person lives 1,000 months. The one month shutdown has already cost 330,000 human lives. A shutdown of 6 months would cost 2 million lives this way, but in reality, by destroying most people’s livelihoods, it will be much more. The people who are hurt the most by this are children losing their homes, parent stability, school. Children who face appear to face non-measurable risk from the virus.

This is the worst handled global affair I have ever seen.
Last edited by LCDFlight on Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:51 pm

aaden wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

I am not blinded, I am just not convinced that this is an overall solution or remedy that ultimately can cost more lives in the long run.

And that piece you cited, its extremely sensationalist and has nothing to do with bed capacity, but rather logistics. 13 deaths in a hospital is 'apocalyptic'? have you ever seen how many people die in a hospital in a normal day? Maybe you haven't that's why you believe that its apocalyptic.

Come back with 30 or 40 dead in a hospital for coronavirus so we can start talking about 'apocalyptic'. The NYT and their writers are doing the utmost to create panic out of nothing yet occurring. If that's apocalyptic tell me how can we describe Italy with almost 1000 dead per day.


The real question is where are you getting the misinformation driving these unscientific conclusions?

Isolation and social distancing is already having a measurable impact on case growth, especially in places that did so more aggressively:

Image

These are good indications these places won’t be seeing their healthcare systems completely overwhelmed.



Aaron can you share your sources for the graph? I can't find much on the declining numbers.


I found it from an MPH Doc on Twitter but it was originally part of this article:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... rison.html
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:00 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
The tragic cost is this. In the US for example. We have 330 million people. One month of shutdown costs 330 million months, but in reality the disruption is terribly far greater. An average US person lives 1,000 months. The one month shutdown has already cost 330,000 human lives. A shutdown of 6 months would cost 2 million lives this way, but in reality, by destroying most people’s livelihoods, it will be much more. The people who are hurt the most by this are children losing their homes, parent stability, school. Children who face appear to face non-measurable risk from the virus.

This is the worst handled global affair I have ever seen.


What nonsense is this? Your stats are based on the artificially created daily grind of a western developed nation. For survival, you don't need all that.

If the issue is minimum wage workers need to risk their lives to keep the productivity going at its peak so stock markets can bounce back and the 1% can cash in gains day in and day out, YES. But not required for the survival of humanity.

What you are describing is continued greed at any human cost, not the economy.
All posts are just opinions.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:23 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
This is the worst handled global affair I have ever seen.


Yep, I am getting to the point of seeing it that way. The anecdotal reports coming from Italy and other hotspots show a dire situation, which is true, but all we can see is thousands of people rushing to hospitals all at once, people that otherwise would take months to get there, are getting there in days. So for now, without clear data, and consensus from scientist and epidemiologists, the crisis we have seen is a crisis on hospital capacity attending people with very bad symptoms, and a seemingly 'worse' virus than the normal flu.

China its understandable since they lack in health infrastructure more than the west, but Northern Italy? One of the best public health systems in the world. The dynamics of how this virus has attacked Europe needs to be analyzed.

I tend to agree, we should try and mitigate the amount of vulnerable and at risk individuals of getting this virus, for the fact that the health infrastructure isn't there to accommodate thousands of people all at once that otherwise would have to be accommodated in a space of months. But to have the rest of the population in lockdown, I think that's an over reaction.

Another thing, this virus according to experts is highly contagious, I am having trouble believing this, because if so, NYC a city of 8 million people, only tens of thousands have it? If its so contagious, I think the real numbers of infected should be in the hundreds of thousands at the very least.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:48 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Another thing, this virus according to experts is highly contagious, I am having trouble believing this, because if so, NYC a city of 8 million people, only tens of thousands have it? If its so contagious, I think the real numbers of infected should be in the hundreds of thousands at the very least.

It is so tiresome for us all to keep correcting your misinformation.

At this time NYC only has tens of thousands of confirmed cases.

I understand that you are betting that this is the whole picture, and that unconfirmed /asymptomatic cases don't amount to much, but the downside of getting that bet wrong is going to hurt. Big time.
It appears you are prepared to take that bet... with other peoples lives. :roll:

I'm sure this has been explained to you already, numerous times, but the smart money is on the fact that you (or I) could easily contract the virus, but not show any symptoms for a week. Or possibly ever. Until large numbers of the population have been tested, both to find if they have the virus now, and/or to find if they have survived the virus (but may still be a carrier), we are predominantly in the dark.

Only a simpleton sees a world where people unknowingly contract the virus one day, and by some miracle make sure they are added to the statistics on day two, just on the strength of a cough, or a mild case of indigestion.
Clue; that isn't happening.
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:59 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
I tend to agree, we should try and mitigate the amount of vulnerable and at risk individuals of getting this virus, for the fact that the health infrastructure isn't there to accommodate thousands of people all at once that otherwise would have to be accommodated in a space of months. But to have the rest of the population in lockdown, I think that's an over reaction.


The way of mitigating the risk to vulnerable populations is reducing the overall *rate* of spread, because asymptomatic carriers will inevitably expose others - that’s all doctors have been saying for weeks now. In papers from China, as many as 70% of transmissions may have been from undetected infectees.

Probably a good idea to start following doctors on Twitter so you don’t need to guess so much.
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AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:18 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Another thing, this virus according to experts is highly contagious, I am having trouble believing this, because if so, NYC a city of 8 million people, only tens of thousands have it? If its so contagious, I think the real numbers of infected should be in the hundreds of thousands at the very least.

It is so tiresome for us all to keep correcting your misinformation.

At this time NYC only has tens of thousands of confirmed cases.

I understand that you are betting that this is the whole picture, and that unconfirmed /asymptomatic cases don't amount to much, but the downside of getting that bet wrong is going to hurt. Big time.
It appears you are prepared to take that bet... with other peoples lives. :roll:

I'm sure this has been explained to you already, numerous times, but the smart money is on the fact that you (or I) could easily contract the virus, but not show any symptoms for a week. Or possibly ever. Until large numbers of the population have been tested, both to find if they have the virus now, and/or to find if they have survived the virus (but may still be a carrier), we are predominantly in the dark.

Only a simpleton sees a world where people unknowingly contract the virus one day, and by some miracle make sure they are added to the statistics on day two, just on the strength of a cough, or a mild case of indigestion.
Clue; that isn't happening.


Nope, what I believe is the amount of unconfirmed/asymptomatic cases is way higher than the current confirmed cases. Dr Deborah Birx from the coronavirus task force said that the virus has been circulating in NYC for weeks. If what she says is true, I think is only fair to assume that the amount of people with this virus is way much higher, and there must be many people contracting this and not showing symptoms at all or having them very mild, considering NYC is densely populated and mass transit is widely used.

And as you say we are all in the dark, to me it seems that the death rate is exceedingly over reported for COVID19, once all experts arrive to a conclusion to that and all other else, what I say is a mere opinion, from a 'simpleton', until the experts provide facts that prove otherwise.

BTW, can you tell me how am I misinforming with actual facts and data?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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zkojq
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:37 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:

So far there is no proof that any lock-down in the western world has worked, thus far. Italy, Spain and other European nations have been implementing lock downs for weeks, and yet their numbers haven't seen a decline.


Image

AirWorthy99 wrote:
The main argument has been to 'flatten the curb' allow the hospitals to have sufficient beds for the deluge of people needing health services. In the US as we write this, and being the world leader in coronavirus infections, no city or state, not even NY has seen lack of beds, both normal and ICU beds.


This will age badly.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
The NYT and their writers are doing the utmost to create panic out of nothing yet occurring.


Deep state, right? :scratchchin:

AirWorthy99 wrote:
What I think is we should just keep at home those vulnerable, those on the age groups that are at risk. The rest of us should carry on.


Quite apart from anything else that others have mentioned, keeping everyone home and banning public gatherings, sporting events etc reduces the demand on the healthcare system due to less people having car crashes, being hurt in industrial accidents, breaking arms/legs playing sports, having bar fights after too many drinks etc. You're not going to stop people having heart attacks and strokes, but if you can reduce hospital admissions for as many "preventable" situations as possible, that's critical when the system comes under maximum pressure.

Varsity1 wrote:
Like it or not this is world war 3. The enemy is a virus.

We have to lock down, it's the the only weapon we have right now. Until someone, somewhere, develops a better weapon we will continue to use the best strategy we've got. It's crude and brutal, much like trench warfare looks today, but it is effective. I encourage everyone to participate as much as possible. Every case counts.


Well said. Not a good situation to be in but that's currently the only way to address it.

LCDFlight wrote:
The tragic cost is this. In the US for example. We have 330 million people. One month of shutdown costs 330 million months, but in reality the disruption is terribly far greater. An average US person lives 1,000 months. The one month shutdown has already cost 330,000 human lives. A shutdown of 6 months would cost 2 million lives this way, but in reality, by destroying most people’s livelihoods, it will be much more. The people who are hurt the most by this are children losing their homes, parent stability, school.

Someone posted two days ago about a 19 year old US male dying from corona in part due to being denied healthcare. 19X12 is 228. 1000-228 is 772 months. So corona has cost that man 772 months. Your numbers and premise are nonsense anyway, but you should have calculated how many months corona is taking away. Would that 19 year old trade one month of isolation for 772 months of life, given the choice? :roll:


LCDFlight wrote:
Children who face appear to face non-measurable risk from the virus.

This is the worst handled global affair I have ever seen.


Children are great carriers of the virus. :roll: I guarantee five years from now, most children will barely remember the lockdown. They probably will remember grandma dying though.
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Dahlgardo
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:45 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
The way of mitigating the risk to vulnerable populations is reducing the overall *rate* of spread, because asymptomatic carriers will inevitably expose others - that’s all doctors have been saying for weeks now. In papers from China, as many as 70% of transmissions may have been from undetected infectees.

Probably a good idea to start following doctors on Twitter so you don’t need to guess so much.


Again we are back with the unknown number of undetected infectees.
Right now I'm not sure how the endgame of this pandemic really is envisioned by the state leaders and medical experts.

I'm aware that the Swedish strategy is to build country wide immunity by exposure which is a quite reasonable goal.

But according to a recent interview with Anthony Fauci, he states, that he believes the covid19 infection has a fatality rate of around 1%.
Going by that number, one can more or less multiply the numbers of deaths by 100 and then then you should have an approximate number of infected people, give or take some margin.
That would be a number around 1 mill for Italy, which is only 1/60th of the population.
For Sweden that would be 10000 infected out of a population of 10 mill (appx 1%).

To me that doesn't add up, as that would mean that 98% of the population has not yet been infected, and that we are a very long way from the end of this pandemic.

So what are the prospects for the next 12 months if a cure or a vaccine is not ready?
Or perhaps the fatality rate is much lower than 1%
Last edited by Dahlgardo on Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:47 pm

Any suggestions why numbers are still going up in the USA. For the most part, people are maintaining social distance, still not making a dent on infections.

I wish some big brains at tech giants with enough computing power should have come up with models on contamination points.

Few tinfoil theories, none validated.
1) These are backlog numbers, doesn't represent now.
2) There are areas social/physical distancing is not being followed.

I am strongly leaning towards self-service gas stations being the issue. This is one topic PSAs should emphasize. NJ debunks this theory though.
All posts are just opinions.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:48 pm

zkojq wrote:

Image



Again trying to prove your argument with data that its unreliable by consensus of most of the experts.

The statistics of number of infected is unreliable because most countries are only testing those with very tough symptoms. If you take a chance to look at the mortalaty rate, which I am sure you might have, you can see huge variations in death rates across the board. That's attributed in part to the inconsistencies in testing. So thus far, the only relevant statistics are the dead.

Again, you might not be from the US, but here we mostly don't live with parents or old people, we can avoid them in order not to pass them this virus. No absolute need to keep home people who otherwise won't be affected by this virus and aren't going to die from it.

It is your belief we should afford a year waiting for a vaccine, that's for you to keep believing and arguing.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:57 pm

Guys (and ladies), please help me understand the math here.

Current total confirmed infected today (29th of March): 700,000
Current total confirmed deceased at this point: 35,000

35k of 700k is 5%. That means a 5% death rate.

However, the COVID-19 sickness doesn't work like this.

There's a two week delay from the infection point to death. At least. 4-5 days from infection to symptoms. Then 4-5 days of milder symptoms. Then 4-5 days where you either get worse (spreads to lungs) or you get better. (This is very simplified).

So the 35k figure are people who got infected at least two weeks ago. Two weeks ago at March 15th there were 165,000 confirmed infected.

35k of 165k is 20%. That means a 20% death rate.

But there are two hidden factors here. And that is confirmed infected vs actually infected. And deceased from COVID-19 but registred as something else (probably not many in the West).

The Norwegian Govmnt. is operating with the assumption there are about 10x as many infected as the confirmed numbers. (One week ago 2,500 confirmed vs 23,000 actual in Norway) This data comes from a self-reporting system where scientists go through the symptoms reported and calculate who actually has COVID-19 and who has something else). So they should be rather precise.

So if the 10x is accurate, we're looking at:

35,000 of 1,650,000 (actually infected). That means a 2% death rate.

2% seems within the reported figures from scientists, varying from 0,5% up to 7,4% depending on area.

However, the health care system is just beginning to overflow right now. And the death rate will only get higher when people don't get treatment (even in Norway, at this point in time, there are patients who can barely breathe who are denied health care and have to stay at home).

But if the data and assumptions are correct, we're looking at a 2% death rate at this point in time, Sunday 29th of March 2020.
 
drew777
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:01 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Any suggestions why numbers are still going up in the USA. For the most part, people are maintaining social distance, still not making a dent on infections.

Not in South Carolina they're not! Here it's mostly still treated as a non-issue with people out of work actively gathering. I've been deemed an essential employee even though I'm not.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:07 pm

drew777 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Any suggestions why numbers are still going up in the USA. For the most part, people are maintaining social distance, still not making a dent on infections.

Not in South Carolina they're not! Here it's mostly still treated as a non-issue with people out of work actively gathering. I've been deemed an essential employee even though I'm not.


It takes at least 4-5 days from infection until you start seeing symptoms. The measures currently in place will show effect only about a week after implementation.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 299
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:17 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Any suggestions why numbers are still going up in the USA. For the most part, people are maintaining social distance, still not making a dent on infections.

I wish some big brains at tech giants with enough computing power should have come up with models on contamination points.

Few tinfoil theories, none validated.
1) These are backlog numbers, doesn't represent now.
2) There are areas social/physical distancing is not being followed.

I am strongly leaning towards self-service gas stations being the issue. This is one topic PSAs should emphasize. NJ debunks this theory though.


Numbers are going up because testing is going up. Secondly, because it is very contagious and “distancing” will probably only marginally delay the wave of infection, so we should expect it to spread just fine. We spent 2 trillion plus USD and 300,000 lives of time to move the wave.

Positive cases is not a meaningful metric nor does it show harm. An increase in death rates that is causally related to COVID19 presence in communities will show a harm. Right now, we are speculating that it might happen. But no smoking gun yet. Some dying people carry the virus, so we know that.
 
N212R
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:21 pm

Jouhou wrote:
It's a zoonotic bat lineage betacoronavirus that has since been classified as a SARS virus and it likely has an intermediate host such as the pangolin or palm civet.

The coronaviruses carried by Chinese bats and wildlife have been warned about since they've been discovered in the aftermath of SARS. It was already known they carried numerous viruses with the SARS genes and capable of infecting humans. The Wuhan Institute of Virology, often the focus of "bioweapon" conspiracies WAS researching these viruses. Because they were a pandemic threat that China understood could cripple them at ANY time. They published a lot of research on these viruses. They were extremely concerned.

The only plausible theory that pins blame on that lab is that they were slack in their safety precautions, said "Chabuduo", and "leaked" a virus out of the lab accidentally. This was the original "blame China" theory from chatter between Hong Kong residents.


Thanks for your response. The research into coronaviruses is not a recent development AND entails many more players, at all international levels, than the Chinese scientists in Wuhan.

IF transmitted via an intermediate host, why have the Chinese, with all their technological and data-assessing capability, NOT presented a plausible scientific explanation for that animal transmission?
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:26 pm

Pellegrine wrote:
Here's something about vaccines/drugs in the pipeline for treatment:

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/ana ... cov-drugs/

I'm most excited about the antivirals, some of the HIV drugs, and drugs that help assuage the cytokine storm syndrome in severe/critical patients.


One vaccine missing from the list is that for TBC. In Holland they are testing it if it has any efficacy against COVID-19.
 
kelval
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:37 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Any suggestions why numbers are still going up in the USA. For the most part, people are maintaining social distance, still not making a dent on infections.

I wish some big brains at tech giants with enough computing power should have come up with models on contamination points.

Few tinfoil theories, none validated.
1) These are backlog numbers, doesn't represent now.
2) There are areas social/physical distancing is not being followed.

I am strongly leaning towards self-service gas stations being the issue. This is one topic PSAs should emphasize. NJ debunks this theory though.

How can you expect results now after barely a week of vert loose confinement ? It looks like every other county has their own confinement rules in the US...
Anyways, it's way too early.
According to the charts online, there is a 3 to 14 ( and rarely over 20) days incubation period. After this, most of the times you are asymptomatic or develop mild syndroms. Most of the times for the bad cases, it takes a turn for the worse 7 to 10 days after the first symptoms wich leads to a lot of cases needing hospitalisation.
Wich means the 80000 confirmed case you are seeing now are the ones that were contaminated 10 to 25 days ago. You will need two to three more weeks, ans see thousands if not tens of thousands more cases before the confinement shows results.

I guess people are used to have everything they want immediately. Sorry to say this is not the case here.

And if you guys don't tighten up very quick, you'll be in for a lot of pain. When the emergency services right and left will be satured with covid cases, you'll see the mortality go through the roof for all the other cases like heart attacks or cva...
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 3891
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:44 pm

Estimates of peak hospitalizations in Washington State are sometime in the later half of April. Earlier estimates were mid April. What you see in hospital admissions are the result of contracting the virus about a month earlier. Anybody have more precise estimates?
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PPVRA
Posts: 8438
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:49 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Any suggestions why numbers are still going up in the USA. For the most part, people are maintaining social distance, still not making a dent on infections.

I wish some big brains at tech giants with enough computing power should have come up with models on contamination points.

Few tinfoil theories, none validated.
1) These are backlog numbers, doesn't represent now.
2) There are areas social/physical distancing is not being followed.

I am strongly leaning towards self-service gas stations being the issue. This is one topic PSAs should emphasize. NJ debunks this theory though.


What’s on the far end of the flatter curve? It’s not contagion containment, it’s herd immunity. Cases should continue to climb until herd immunity is achieved. That’s my understanding of it, anyways.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 12747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:48 pm

PPVRA wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Any suggestions why numbers are still going up in the USA. For the most part, people are maintaining social distance, still not making a dent on infections.

I wish some big brains at tech giants with enough computing power should have come up with models on contamination points.

Few tinfoil theories, none validated.
1) These are backlog numbers, doesn't represent now.
2) There are areas social/physical distancing is not being followed.

I am strongly leaning towards self-service gas stations being the issue. This is one topic PSAs should emphasize. NJ debunks this theory though.


What’s on the far end of the flatter curve? It’s not contagion containment, it’s herd immunity. Cases should continue to climb until herd immunity is achieved. That’s my understanding of it, anyways.


I'd say the vaccine is at the far end, because with a flat curve it would take years to reach herd immunity.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1140
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:57 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Estimates of peak hospitalizations in Washington State are sometime in the later half of April. Earlier estimates were mid April. What you see in hospital admissions are the result of contracting the virus about a month earlier. Anybody have more precise estimates?



What I see is "experts", "self-declared experts", "virologists", "epidemiologists" constantly pushing back the "peak" predictions.

All of the above are basing their peak prediction based on the curve seen in China.
The problem with this is that China has shut its borders and is now shutting down social media.
So it's far from certain that China has reached its peak yet, what is certain is that they've reached their peak in censorship.

To me, what is supposedly reported by China doesn't add up.
Aren't hospitals in Wuhan still full with Covid19 patients? Why are they opening up Wuhan, releasing the virus to the rest of China?
There is only one explanation. The virus was not contained and spread to the rest of the country, which is why we saw recent reports of "imported cases" across China.
So it became meaningless to isolate only Wuhan, they decided to isolate the entire country.
This can be confirmed if we soon start receiving reports of a nationwide lockdown in China, and they might blame imported cases for it.

I may be wrong.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:09 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Estimates of peak hospitalizations in Washington State are sometime in the later half of April. Earlier estimates were mid April. What you see in hospital admissions are the result of contracting the virus about a month earlier. Anybody have more precise estimates?



What I see is "experts", "self-declared experts", "virologists", "epidemiologists" constantly pushing back the "peak" predictions.

All of the above are basing their peak prediction based on the curve seen in China.
The problem with this is that China has shut its borders and is now shutting down social media.
So it's far from certain that China has reached its peak yet, what is certain is that they've reached their peak in censorship.

To me, what is supposedly reported by China doesn't add up.
Aren't hospitals in Wuhan still full with Covid19 patients? Why are they opening up Wuhan, releasing the virus to the rest of China?
There is only one explanation. The virus was not contained and spread to the rest of the country, which is why we saw recent reports of "imported cases" across China.
So it became meaningless to isolate only Wuhan, they decided to isolate the entire country.
This can be confirmed if we soon start receiving reports of a nationwide lockdown in China, and they might blame imported cases for it.

I may be wrong.

Haters gonna hate no matter what...
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8160
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:11 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
To me, what is supposedly reported by China doesn't add up.
...
This can be confirmed if we soon start receiving reports of a nationwide lockdown in China, and they might blame imported cases for it.
...
I may be wrong.


There is a rumor one of the Wuhan funeral houses saying they can process only 500 urns a day, ie., handing over to the relatives. Could be a large number of natural deaths, nothing to do with COVID-19.
...
China achieved complete information lockdown, now stopped entry to foreigners claiming imported cases. They don't need a countrywide lockdown. Just handle natural deaths.
..
You are not alone, every assumption has been proven wrong.
All posts are just opinions.
 
olle
Posts: 1826
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:45 pm

Number of death in USA went today over 2000 with 1000 the last 24 hours. Of this over 900 is NY state. NY very fast getting on the same level as Spain and Italy.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 299
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:28 pm

olle wrote:
Number of death in USA went today over 2000 with 1000 the last 24 hours. Of this over 900 is NY state. NY very fast getting on the same level as Spain and Italy.


And next year, according to some experts, 50%-80% of all people in the US willl show Covid exposure. So, 50-80% of deaths will be “covid deaths.” It does not mean covid will cause their death. The number of deaths caused will be measured by epidemiologists and will be a fraction of the total deaths that test positive. We need those numbers.

The headline is not useful... but it is worrying. More useful: did more people die in NY than usual this week? There might be a lot of infections and 200 covid deaths, but no excess deaths. In which case, no apparent impact from covid. We don’t know yet, and I’ll be interested to see it. My hope is mild numbers and people do ok. That’s what I’m hoping to see. I’m hoping to see our collective effort pay off, the wave happens and we go back to normal with fewer deaths than some are implying.
 
Rara
Posts: 2309
Joined: Wed Jan 17, 2007 7:41 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:00 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Aren't hospitals in Wuhan still full with Covid19 patients? Why are they opening up Wuhan, releasing the virus to the rest of China?
There is only one explanation. The virus was not contained and spread to the rest of the country


Well, yes. The virus wasn't contained. It spread to every province and every major city of China, with cases ranging from 1.400 in Guangdong to 18 in Qinghai. That's public information.

Wuhan still has thousands of active cases, but it seems they are hospitalized and accounted for, and the risk of infection isn't greater than in other places. That's why people are allowed to travel into Wuhan again. They're not yet allowed to leave Wuhan though.

I find the claim that every single new case of Covid-19 in China is imported to be rather dubious. At the same time, it would appear that there isn't a major epidemic going on at this point. There is no freedom of press so it's impossible to know for sure, but I have lots of acquaintances and relatives all over China and none of them say that there are new Covid cases appearing around them.
Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2539
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:03 pm

N212R wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
It's a zoonotic bat lineage betacoronavirus that has since been classified as a SARS virus and it likely has an intermediate host such as the pangolin or palm civet.

The coronaviruses carried by Chinese bats and wildlife have been warned about since they've been discovered in the aftermath of SARS. It was already known they carried numerous viruses with the SARS genes and capable of infecting humans. The Wuhan Institute of Virology, often the focus of "bioweapon" conspiracies WAS researching these viruses. Because they were a pandemic threat that China understood could cripple them at ANY time. They published a lot of research on these viruses. They were extremely concerned.

The only plausible theory that pins blame on that lab is that they were slack in their safety precautions, said "Chabuduo", and "leaked" a virus out of the lab accidentally. This was the original "blame China" theory from chatter between Hong Kong residents.


Thanks for your response. The research into coronaviruses is not a recent development AND entails many more players, at all international levels, than the Chinese scientists in Wuhan.

IF transmitted via an intermediate host, why have the Chinese, with all their technological and data-assessing capability, NOT presented a plausible scientific explanation for that animal transmission?



What do you mean? They're running with the pangolin thing. Hopefully they actually enforce the ban on this trade now.
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2548
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:09 pm

Scientific advisors to the UK Government is saying China has downplayed their Coronavirus figures by a factor of 15 to 40.

Meaning 1,200,000 and 3,200,000 real cases.

Take the source for what it is. A tabloid.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... No-10.html
 
oschkosch
Posts: 560
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:19 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Scientific advisors to the UK Government is saying China has downplayed their Coronavirus figures by a factor of 15 to 40.

Meaning 1,200,000 and 3,200,000 real cases.

Take the source for what it is. A tabloid.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... No-10.html
Dann aber auch die reißerische Überschrift des Artikels richtig wieder geben bitte.


China's efforts to blame coronavirus on a US army delegation to Wuhan infuriate No. 10 as Boris Johnson's advisers say Beijing's statistics on its cases could be downplayed by a factor of 40



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Grizzly410
Posts: 373
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:42 pm

olle wrote:
Number of death in USA went today over 2000 with 1000 the last 24 hours. Of this over 900 is NY state. NY very fast getting on the same level as Spain and Italy.


I don't give more than 1 week for the US death toll to become as credible as the chinese.
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
aaden
Posts: 799
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2006 9:49 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:46 pm

Trump is extending the social distancing guidelines to 4/30/2020 at the earliest.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2084
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:47 pm

Looks like Sweden is doing it completely different. EVERYTHING is still open, people frequently bars and restaurants. Schools are still open. I guess we'll see what happens in a week from now...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52076293
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10123
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:36 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
olle wrote:
Number of death in USA went today over 2000 with 1000 the last 24 hours. Of this over 900 is NY state. NY very fast getting on the same level as Spain and Italy.


I don't give more than 1 week for the US death toll to become as credible as the chinese.

So the media that has been ensuring that when POTUS spits we know about it will somehow join in a conspiracy with the White House to give out false numbers, or are you saying the Chinese numbers are accurate and the US will follow suit?
Just checking.
 
art
Posts: 3302
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:28 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Scientific advisors to the UK Government is saying China has downplayed their Coronavirus figures by a factor of 15 to 40.

Meaning 1,200,000 and 3,200,000 real cases.

Take the source for what it is. A tabloid.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... No-10.html


It looks likely that the Chinese government chose to suppress, distort, and falsify information about an iillness. If so, why?
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2548
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:35 am

art wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Scientific advisors to the UK Government is saying China has downplayed their Coronavirus figures by a factor of 15 to 40.

Meaning 1,200,000 and 3,200,000 real cases.

Take the source for what it is. A tabloid.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... No-10.html


It looks likely that the Chinese government chose to suppress, distort, and falsify information about an iillness. If so, why?


They've been trying to cover it up with the help of the WHO and certain journalists, who are now gleeful all over social media that the US has more cases than the numbers presented by the Chinese Communist Party.

It's the same story every time with communist regimes. The official death toll of Chernobyl is still 31. It's all about maintaining control and social harmony. 21 million phone subscriptions were cancelled in China from January and until today. Why? Because the CCP did not want people to tell the truth to the outside world. They wanted to stop the images of Chinese authorities welding people's doors shut. At the same time they're spinning a story that the US started it all.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1140
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:37 am

aaden wrote:
Trump is extending the social distancing guidelines to 4/30/2020 at the earliest.


Thank god Pres. Trump has followed the medical experts and not the economists.
So no churches packed of people for Easter.

The numbers of deaths that they're talking about are massive.
6-digit deaths expected in the USA, with mitigation. (80.000-160.000)
Without mitigation, 7-digits. (2.2 million)
I get shivers just writing this.

About a million tested in the U.S. until now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Jf-ZseAIl0
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 11557
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:48 am

JetBuddy wrote:
art wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Scientific advisors to the UK Government is saying China has downplayed their Coronavirus figures by a factor of 15 to 40.

Meaning 1,200,000 and 3,200,000 real cases.

Take the source for what it is. A tabloid.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... No-10.html


It looks likely that the Chinese government chose to suppress, distort, and falsify information about an iillness. If so, why?


They've been trying to cover it up with the help of the WHO and certain journalists, who are now gleeful all over social media that the US has more cases than the numbers presented by the Chinese Communist Party.

It's the same story every time with communist regimes. The official death toll of Chernobyl is still 31. It's all about maintaining control and social harmony. 21 million phone subscriptions were cancelled in China from January and until today. Why? Because the CCP did not want people to tell the truth to the outside world. They wanted to stop the images of Chinese authorities welding people's doors shut. At the same time they're spinning a story that the US started it all.


Imagine what could have been accomplished if the WHO were a functioning, uncompromised organization, and there was unity and leadership in the west - we’d have a consistent global containment and mitigation effort and be halfway to nipping this thing in the bud by now.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1140
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:00 am

High profile fatality in Japan, Covid19 has taken away famous top comedian Shimura Ken.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21H020
 
N212R
Posts: 324
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:18 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:03 am

Jouhou wrote:
What do you mean? They're running with the pangolin thing. Hopefully they actually enforce the ban on this trade now.


Do you believe the SARS-CoV-2 virus was transmitted via a pangolin host?
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8160
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:05 am

JetBuddy wrote:
They've been trying to cover it up with the help of the WHO and certain journalists, who are now gleeful all over social media that the US has more cases than the numbers presented by the Chinese Communist Party.


Interestingly WHO local China reps visited Wuhan only on February 8,2020. If you follow Indian TV/Twitter they are literally pouncing WHO and China with all sorts allegations and hashtags. On one program WHO rep kept saying lets work together and move forward.

https://www.ndtv.com/video/news/ndtv-sp ... ole-544144

We are still pondering and indulging China.
All posts are just opinions.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 14872
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:50 am

We will never likely never know the true numbers in China of numbers ill and deaths directly and indirectly from Covid-19 due to the nature of their government, massive censorship, political and general culture. No doubt they have repressed the numbers to profit from this pandemic to get their economy going again. For sure they are already exploiting massive profits to a few, big bribes to government officials while piddling pay to the serfs from the pandemic to make the badly needed PPE items for the rest of the world.

I also wouldn't trust the numbers from Japan, also from political, economic and cultural factors. Russia and other authoritarian countries 'official' numbers, especially numbers of deaths, to the public media are likely way below

The accuracy of the numbers of numbers infected or have been is likely very much underestimated around the world, including the USA, due to limited testing and many self-quarantining.
 
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par13del
Posts: 10123
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:15 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Imagine what could have been accomplished if the WHO were a functioning, uncompromised organization, and there was unity and leadership in the west - we’d have a consistent global containment and mitigation effort and be halfway to nipping this thing in the bud by now.

Unfortunately, such will never be addressed, folks have been complaining about some global organizations in and outside the UN for decades, for most it just went with a political slant.
If countries had isolated China back in 2019 WWIII would probably have started, we accommodated the virus so now we get to play with numbers and damage the entire world economy. Thankfully the Chinese economy is reopening and their industry will soon be pumping out the supplies required for the world to fight the pandemic. So the circle has been turned, the USA had the Marshall Plan for Europe, wonder what the Chinese plan for the world will be called.
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2548
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:00 am

par13del wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Imagine what could have been accomplished if the WHO were a functioning, uncompromised organization, and there was unity and leadership in the west - we’d have a consistent global containment and mitigation effort and be halfway to nipping this thing in the bud by now.

Unfortunately, such will never be addressed, folks have been complaining about some global organizations in and outside the UN for decades, for most it just went with a political slant.
If countries had isolated China back in 2019 WWIII would probably have started, we accommodated the virus so now we get to play with numbers and damage the entire world economy. Thankfully the Chinese economy is reopening and their industry will soon be pumping out the supplies required for the world to fight the pandemic. So the circle has been turned, the USA had the Marshall Plan for Europe, wonder what the Chinese plan for the world will be called.


That's an interesting way of putting it. After the Marshall Plan, us Europeans got NATO, Massey Ferguson farming equipment, Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, Coca-Cola, jeans and rock & roll. That wasn't so bad. It forged a friendship lasting today.

But looking at how China has behaved in Africa, South America, as well as certain other places - they're no better than any European colonizers were. Possibly worse. In the case of Venezuela, the Chinese built infrastructure and offered loans to the Chavez/Maduro regime. When they couldn't pay them back, they're now taking the oil. 70% of the oil pumped from Venezuela goes to China and Russia and the Venezuelans are now starving. Tragic.

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