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tommy1808
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:22 am

LCDFlight wrote:
olle wrote:
Number of death in USA went today over 2000 with 1000 the last 24 hours. Of this over 900 is NY state. NY very fast getting on the same level as Spain and Italy.


And next year, according to some experts, 50%-80% of all people in the US willl show Covid exposure. So, 50-80% of deaths will be “covid deaths.” It does not mean covid will cause their death. The number of deaths caused will be measured by epidemiologists and will be a fraction of the total deaths that test positive. We need those numbers.


Yup, it is crucial to figure that out. But i don´t think everyone dying with Corona Antibodies will be counted as Corona death, but only those that die of something looking like Covid-19 and show the infection.

The headline is not useful... but it is worrying. More useful: did more people die in NY than usual this week? There might be a lot of infections and 200 covid deaths, but no excess deaths. In which case, no apparent impact from covid. We don’t know yet, and I’ll be interested to see it. My hope is mild numbers and people do ok. That’s what I’m hoping to see.


I would assume there will be less death from traffic for sure. ....

I’m hoping to see our collective effort pay off, the wave happens and we go back to normal with fewer deaths than some are implying.


That is what everybody is hoping for, and when we tally in the end we can say pretty exactly how many people died over each day in delay.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Kiwirob
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:54 am

JetBuddy wrote:
par13del wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Imagine what could have been accomplished if the WHO were a functioning, uncompromised organization, and there was unity and leadership in the west - we’d have a consistent global containment and mitigation effort and be halfway to nipping this thing in the bud by now.

Unfortunately, such will never be addressed, folks have been complaining about some global organizations in and outside the UN for decades, for most it just went with a political slant.
If countries had isolated China back in 2019 WWIII would probably have started, we accommodated the virus so now we get to play with numbers and damage the entire world economy. Thankfully the Chinese economy is reopening and their industry will soon be pumping out the supplies required for the world to fight the pandemic. So the circle has been turned, the USA had the Marshall Plan for Europe, wonder what the Chinese plan for the world will be called.


That's an interesting way of putting it. After the Marshall Plan, us Europeans got NATO, Massey Ferguson farming equipment, Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, Coca-Cola, jeans and rock & roll. That wasn't so bad. It forged a friendship lasting today.

But looking at how China has behaved in Africa, South America, as well as certain other places - they're no better than any European colonizers were. Possibly worse. In the case of Venezuela, the Chinese built infrastructure and offered loans to the Chavez/Maduro regime. When they couldn't pay them back, they're now taking the oil. 70% of the oil pumped from Venezuela goes to China and Russia and the Venezuelans are now starving. Tragic.


Massey Ferguson wasn't American, it was formed by the 1953 merger of farm machinery manufacturers Massey Harris of Canada and the Ferguson Company in Northern Ireland. It didn't become American until the 1990's.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:25 am

JetBuddy wrote:
Scientific advisors to the UK Government is saying China has downplayed their Coronavirus figures by a factor of 15 to 40.

Meaning 1,200,000 and 3,200,000 real cases.

Take the source for what it is. A tabloid.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... No-10.html


While the Daily Mail is a trash newspaper, they’re just reporting someone else saying this. I doubt anyone believes there were only 3,300 deaths in China.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:42 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Looks like Sweden is doing it completely different. EVERYTHING is still open, people frequently bars and restaurants. Schools are still open. I guess we'll see what happens in a week from now...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52076293


Per capita, Sweden’s Covid-19 deaths are 50% higher than America’s. There are other factors at play and Sweden doesn’t have massive cities like America or many Europeans countries.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
olle
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:45 am

Ny times writes a story that the number of cremations in wuhan has been much higher late 2019 and early 2020 compared to earlier years,

https://time.com/5811222/wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll/
 
olle
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:59 am

Sorry the link in swedish :-)

The number of new cases in sweden in need of health care does not seem to increase. It is still to early to get a specific conclusion from only a few days of statistics

https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/tegne ... apa-efter/

The Public Health Authority sees a positive development in the work against the spread of the new corona virus.

The assessment is partly based on the number of new intensive care cases in recent days. However, there may be some lag in reporting this figure, according to the Intensive Care Register.

- It is only today that we hear something that the figures we are possibly getting are wrong, says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.
 
blrsea
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:11 am

6-7 million people are supposed to have left Wuhan between Dec 19 - Feb 2020 when lockdown was imposed. Assuming majority of them were domestic movements, shouldn't there have lots more cases in China itself compared to other countries? How could it be that the few who went abroad managed to set up a huge chain reaction of affected people, while the domestic travellers failed to set off as many within China itself? I mean other parts of China should have seen much higher levels of affected people given the high densities. Surprising that Beijing, Shanghai & other big cities of China had so less infected people compared to Italy or NY!
 
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sebolino
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:10 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
sebolino wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:


For the exact same reason that hospitals were saturated in eastern France sooner than in Paris: bad luck.
But make no mistake, you will face the same thing if you don't do what's needed to be done (And Trump will apparently not do it from the beginning).


Well, don't know but seems to me things here in the US have ramped up in preparation for this (more testing) and increase production of ventilators. I hope we don't get to see the same issues in Europe, though it may happen.


Very normal situation indeed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/nyre ... k-5948af97
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:28 am

So Airworthy99, are you unhappy with Pres. Trump for not reopening the economy by Easter as you advocate?

------------

To date, France has transferred 250 patients from the hard-hit Paris and Eastern France area's to other regions with more available capacity.

Some using TGV as someone mentionned earlier in this thread.

Below a picture of a TGV equipped fo Covid19 transport.

Image

https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/ ... _3244.html
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:34 am

Third party estimates feom among others investigative journalists are for over 40.000 deaths in Wuhan.

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/ar ... _3210.html

Sounds more realistic.
This give us an idea of where those sick people who filled beds in sporthalls and makeshift hospitals went...
May their poor souls rest in peace :candle:
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:36 am

blrsea wrote:
6-7 million people are supposed to have left Wuhan between Dec 19 - Feb 2020 when lockdown was imposed. Assuming majority of them were domestic movements, shouldn't there have lots more cases in China itself compared to other countries? How could it be that the few who went abroad managed to set up a huge chain reaction of affected people, while the domestic travellers failed to set off as many within China itself? I mean other parts of China should have seen much higher levels of affected people given the high densities. Surprising that Beijing, Shanghai & other big cities of China had so less infected people compared to Italy or NY!



Do you know for a fact that you are getting the full story from China? Being open and honest about these things are not exactly historical strengths there. . .
"Nous ne sommes pas infectés. Il n'y a pas d'infection ici..."
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:57 am

Availability of antibody tests delayed in UK.

...antibody tests could be ready in days, Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, said on Monday...


He said antibody tests were in the final stage of validation right now and could be hopefully ready to use in “days rather than weeks”.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21H0SA

I hope he is a few days behind in his knowledge of the situation. I read in the media that antibody testing of key workers in isolation was due to start 24hrs/48hrs ago.

A piece of good news from UK today(source BBC TV news) is that Mercedes F1 in conjunction with University College Hospital, London, engineers have in 10 days reverse engineered an out-of-patent positive pressure oxygen mask device and are ready to start production at a rate of 300 per day with a capacity to ramp up to 1000 per week.

The use of positive pressure masks increases oxygenation levels, so helping avoid patients deteriorating to the point where they require mechanical ventilation.
 
T4thH
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:48 am

In Germany, the measurements show further results. Time for doubling of confirmed cases has slowed. As example Bavaria, from 2.8 days to more than 5 days now.
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:23 pm

I wish this dreadful virus had started off in some 'normal' country where there was not a totalitarian regime but a regime happy to provide data on an open and honest basis. An example of exponential rise in infection numbers followed by strict lockdown followed by lifting of lockdown would be a very useful guide to other governments if only the regime concerned could be trusted to publish accurate figures. I discount entirely the numbers from China now. Had their regime been open and honest, their data would be invaluable to other countries (such as Italy) in deciding how to ease restrictions after lockdown.

In the aftermath of all this I think that we (not subject to totalitarian government) need to assess the gravity of the threat totalitarian government control of information presents not only to its own citizens but inadvertently to tthose everywhere else, too.
Last edited by art on Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:26 pm

sebolino wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
sebolino wrote:

For the exact same reason that hospitals were saturated in eastern France sooner than in Paris: bad luck.
But make no mistake, you will face the same thing if you don't do what's needed to be done (And Trump will apparently not do it from the beginning).


Well, don't know but seems to me things here in the US have ramped up in preparation for this (more testing) and increase production of ventilators. I hope we don't get to see the same issues in Europe, though it may happen.


Very normal situation indeed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/nyre ... k-5948af97


That's called preparation, so that what's occurring in Europe doesn't happen in the US. It appears we have been preparing very well considering we have a 1.+ death rate, whereas in Europe is 6 or 7 times that.

According to 'El Pais' from Spain, Europe is not even counting the dead from COVID-19 correctly. France is not counting those who die outside a hospital, so even the death rates in Europe aren't accurate.
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-29/ ... -bien.html
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:29 pm

art wrote:
I wish this dreadful virus had started off in some 'normal' country where there was not a totalitarian regime but a regime happy to provide data on an open and honest basis. An example of exponential rise in infection numbers followed by strict lockdown followed by lifting of lockdown would be a very useful guide to other governments if only the regime concerned could be trusted to publish accurate figures. I discount entirely the numbers from China now. Had their regime been open and honest, their data would be invaluable to other countries (such as Italy) in deciding how to ease restrictions after lockdown.

In the aftermath of all this I think that we (not subject to totalitarian government) need to assess the gravity of the threat totalitarian government control of information presents not only to its own citizens but inadvertently to tthose everywhere else, too.


Interesting read from the NYT on China's handling of this

China Created a Fail-Safe System to Track Contagions. It Failed.

After SARS, Chinese health officials built an infectious disease reporting system to evade political meddling. But when the coronavirus emerged, so did fears of upsetting Beijing.

Hospitals could input patients’ details into a computer and instantly notify government health authorities in Beijing, where officers are trained to spot and smother contagious outbreaks before they spread.

It didn’t work.

After doctors in Wuhan began treating clusters of patients stricken with a mysterious pneumonia in December, the reporting was supposed to have been automatic. Instead, hospitals deferred to local health officials who, over a political aversion to sharing bad news, withheld information about cases from the national reporting system — keeping Beijing in the dark and delaying the response.

The central health authorities first learned about the outbreak not from the reporting system but after unknown whistle-blowers leaked two internal documents online
Even after Beijing got involved, local officials set narrow criteria for confirming cases, leaving out information that could have provided clues that the virus was spreading among humans.

Hospitals were ordered to count only patients with a known connection to the source of the outbreak, the seafood market. Doctors also had to have their cases confirmed by bureaucrats before they were reported to higher-ups
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/worl ... e=Homepage

Like I said before, nations should revise their relations with China. They are unreliable even when coming clean on a virus that was a huge threat to the world and only the knew how bad it was.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
tommy1808
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:05 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
sebolino wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Well, don't know but seems to me things here in the US have ramped up in preparation for this (more testing) and increase production of ventilators. I hope we don't get to see the same issues in Europe, though it may happen.


Very normal situation indeed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/nyre ... k-5948af97


That's called preparation, so that what's occurring in Europe doesn't happen in the US. It appears we have been preparing very well considering we have a 1.+ death rate, whereas in Europe is 6 or 7 times that.


Out of Touch with Reality once more.

USA: 2% ... if you round, round correctly
Europe: 6%

so literally everything in your post is wrong, as pretty much always.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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par13del
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:18 pm

art wrote:
I wish this dreadful virus had started off in some 'normal' country where there was not a totalitarian regime but a regime happy to provide data on an open and honest basis.

One can almost regard such thoughts as blaming the victims. The world knows how China is, we all saw the tanks in Tiananmen Square, we know they are a communist nation, we know they control the media, we saw the controls they put in place during the SARS outbreak, we see the controls they put in place for regular domestic issues, so can we really with a straight face say we wish China was more open with data? Wishes should be tempered with known reality.

The question I would ask is if nations in the developed world who are leading the way in infections at this point and suffered the most are unable to have functional lives without China, maybe that is where my delusion resides. Business houses and politicians could not isolate China, would not even talk about it, and even today, knowing that there numbers are all crap still list them and try to baseline and compare other nations numbers to China, why? Other than being the source of the outbreak what's the basis of including China numbers in anything other than production numbers for medical supplies? Do we gain anything by deflecting blame away from our failures? Is this the time to criticize those in charge - other than POTUS - while they lead the fight for our survival?

In our follow the leader world, we can expect the response in the developed world to be the same, the harsh reality though is that our death toll may be much much higher and entire nations become failed economic states, a lot of them already are / were before the virus.
 
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par13del
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:21 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Out of Touch with Reality once more.

USA: 2% ... if you round, round correctly
Europe: 6%

so literally everything in your post is wrong, as pretty much always.

best regards
Thomas

I assume animus from previous post but 1.+ something and 6 or 7 is pretty close to your 2 rounded and 6.
I know on A.Net we do at times demand perfection so maybe that is the case here?
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:21 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
sebolino wrote:


That's called preparation, so that what's occurring in Europe doesn't happen in the US. It appears we have been preparing very well considering we have a 1.+ death rate, whereas in Europe is 6 or 7 times that.


Out of Touch with Reality once more.

USA: 2% ... if you round, round correctly
Europe: 6%

so literally everything in your post is wrong, as pretty much always.

best regards
Thomas




US 1.7%

Alright if you add the rest of northern Europe you get that number, so my bad, nonetheless, 1.7% vs 6% is 4 times.

Look at these numbers:

Spain 8.6% if you 'round correctly' 9%
France 6.5% if you 'round correctly' 7%
Italy 11%
that's an average of 9% that's what I based my number on.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
PPVRA
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:30 pm

art wrote:
Availability of antibody tests delayed in UK.

...antibody tests could be ready in days, Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, said on Monday...


He said antibody tests were in the final stage of validation right now and could be hopefully ready to use in “days rather than weeks”.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21H0SA

I hope he is a few days behind in his knowledge of the situation. I read in the media that antibody testing of key workers in isolation was due to start 24hrs/48hrs ago.


One of the difficulties in creating these test, as I read, elsewhere, is getting blood samples from recovered people. They are donating/cooperating, but it takes time.... the disease runs its course over three weeks or so, I would guess they probably want to give the patient a little time to recover before sticking another needle into him and drawing blood while he might still be weak. It’s just not something you can rush that much.

And as previously noted, you gotta get these tests right. Bad tests = worthless info and unnecessary delays, which are costly.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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sebolino
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:07 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:

US 1.7%

Alright if you add the rest of northern Europe you get that number, so my bad, nonetheless, 1.7% vs 6% is 4 times.

Look at these numbers:

Spain 8.6% if you 'round correctly' 9%
France 6.5% if you 'round correctly' 7%
Italy 11%
that's an average of 9% that's what I based my number on.


Your comparison is totally irrelevant, considering the way of counting sick people is totally different from a country to another.
In France for example, we don't test much (because we lack tests), so we don't count the sick people who don't have a severe form.

The only important number is the number of people in intensive care, and better, the number of intensive care services overwhelmed.
And considering that an hospital is being built in the middle of Central Park, i don't have the impression that the situation in New York is so much better than in Europe.

Now, if you refuse to see it, I'm helpless.
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:09 pm

PPVRA wrote:
art wrote:
Availability of antibody tests delayed in UK.

...antibody tests could be ready in days, Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology at Imperial College London, said on Monday...


He said antibody tests were in the final stage of validation right now and could be hopefully ready to use in “days rather than weeks”.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21H0SA

I hope he is a few days behind in his knowledge of the situation. I read in the media that antibody testing of key workers in isolation was due to start 24hrs/48hrs ago.


One of the difficulties in creating these test, as I read, elsewhere, is getting blood samples from recovered people. They are donating/cooperating, but it takes time.... the disease runs its course over three weeks or so, I would guess they probably want to give the patient a little time to recover before sticking another needle into him and drawing blood while he might still be weak. It’s just not something you can rush that much.

And as previously noted, you gotta get these tests right. Bad tests = worthless info and unnecessary delays, which are costly.


Are you aware that these are self-test kits, requiring just a drop of blood (not a syringeful)? Take a drop of blood, mix with a reagent as directed, wait 10min-15min and you will get a line showing antibody presence. Quick, easy, cheap at <$10.

Timewise, there are a few people in the UK known to have contracted the virus in the early days of the UK epidemic. They should be ready for antibody testing now.
 
Flying-Tiger
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:12 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
That's called preparation, so that what's occurring in Europe doesn't happen in the US. It appears we have been preparing very well considering we have a 1.+ death rate, whereas in Europe is 6 or 7 times that.


Germany 62,435 cases 541 deaths // 0.8%
USA 143,055 cases >1,700 death // 1.2%

For a country which was lagging in time and says it has been well prepared...

Who knows where this is developing to, but it seems that growth curves in some countries in Europe start to flatten, and measures seem to start working.

But: the worst is yet to come for the US. In Germany the outbreaks started about two weeks after carneval was held in the Rhine-Ruhr valley... "Spring Break in Small für Germans", so to speak. You´ll see trouble brewing up in the US once you start hitting a time about two weeks after spring breakers returning.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
To date, France has transferred 250 patients from the hard-hit Paris and Eastern France area's to other regions with more available capacity.


No only that, Air Forces are being brought into service both within European countries as well as cross border. At the moment many patients from Italy and France are brought to Germany for treatment, with many more likely to come in the next few days. Germany is currently having ample ICU capacity still available, and this is now being put to use for the benefit of Europe.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:18 pm

sebolino wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

US 1.7%

Alright if you add the rest of northern Europe you get that number, so my bad, nonetheless, 1.7% vs 6% is 4 times.

Look at these numbers:

Spain 8.6% if you 'round correctly' 9%
France 6.5% if you 'round correctly' 7%
Italy 11%
that's an average of 9% that's what I based my number on.


Your comparison is totally irrelevant, considering the way of counting sick people is totally different from a country to another.
In France for example, we don't test much (because we lack tests), so we don't count the sick people who don't have a severe form.

The only important number is the number of people in intensive care, and better, the number of intensive care services overwhelmed.
And considering that an hospital is being built in the middle of Central Park, i don't have the impression that the situation in New York is so much better than in Europe.

Now, if you refuse to see it, I'm helpless.


Well, considering we wish to avoid Italy's and Spain catastrophe, I think its only intelligent to prepare, you yourself told me yesterday that France's hospitals are being overwhelmed, if they are smart they start building temporary hospitals as well to avoid the disaster we are witnessing in Italy and Spain.

Can't see how anyone would be against preparing and increasing hospital capacity, even if that means they are doing it offsite a hospital. So whatever point you are trying to make regarding NY, don't see anything wrong with that.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:24 pm

Flying-Tiger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
That's called preparation, so that what's occurring in Europe doesn't happen in the US. It appears we have been preparing very well considering we have a 1.+ death rate, whereas in Europe is 6 or 7 times that.


Germany 62,435 cases 541 deaths // 0.8%
USA 143,055 cases >1,700 death // 1.2%

For a country which was lagging in time and says it has been well prepared...

Who knows where this is developing to, but it seems that growth curves in some countries in Europe start to flatten, and measures seem to start working.

But: the worst is yet to come for the US. In Germany the outbreaks started about two weeks after carneval was held in the Rhine-Ruhr valley... "Spring Break in Small für Germans", so to speak. You´ll see trouble brewing up in the US once you start hitting a time about two weeks after spring breakers returning.


Here we go again, another one with warnings. The US has been testing far more than any country thus far. That talks a lot about our private industry, and the lack and limited testing in Europe speaks a lot about their public bureaucracy working in times of disaster such as now.

If I were European I start worrying less about the US and about their own problems, they have a disaster in the making, and they are not getting together as a bloc to help each other moving forward

Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sànchez, described the crisis as “the most difficult moment for the EU since its foundation” and said the 27-member bloc had to be “ready to rise to the challenge … It’s Europe’s time to act. Europe is at risk.”
Italy’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, late on Saturday also urged Europe to show it was capable of responding. “I will fight to the last drop of sweat, the last gram of energy, to obtain a strong, vigorous, cohesive European response,” he said.

The country’s deputy health minister, Pierpaolo Sileri, told the BBC he expected the country to hit its infection peak in a week or 10 days “at most”, while France’s Europe minister, Amélie de Montchalin, said bloc’s “credibility and usefulness” rested on its collective response to the health crisis.
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Read more

Spain, Italy and France have six others have asked the EU to issue “coronabonds” – a collective debt instrument – to help finance countries’ response to the pandemic, but the Netherlands, Austria and Germany have so far rejected the idea.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... daily-toll

You guys have a lot to work on and be worried about. Who would have thought that in these times of crisis the EU was going to be so divided. Thousands are dying as we speak.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8158
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:35 pm

Reasons for US's slow initial response.
    US FDA regulations,
    Lack of CDC mandates,
    Policies/practices of the medical sector solely made to avoid lawsuits and
    Wishful thinking
    Imaginary strategic stockpile

Germany had rapid testing available weeks before, we are just starting. There were no policies in place to mitigate the lack of PPE or medical supplies.

We also don't know what therapeutic regime German is using, even we know, it will be weeks or months before FDA approves.

Trump's comment about the strategic stockpile speaks volumes about the preparedness, where is this stockpile, stock in China or Walmart/Target/Amazon warehouses cannot be considered strategic stockpile.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2548
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:37 pm

The Czechs have tried a different approach to this virus.

A private individual started a campaign of making masks. And in 3 days, Czechia had 10 million masks. Sown on sewing machines at homes, in elderly homes and elsewhere. One for each individual. There's an interesting video of it here:

https://youtu.be/jZtEX2-n2Hc

The masks doesn't stop all of the spread. But it stops 95-100% of the water drops coming from yourself, containing the spread from you to others. And it does seem to have an effect. At least it doesn't make it worse.

The advise of not wearing masks generally in the West, is usually because we need to conserve the masks for medical professionals. And that's good advise. However the Czechs made them at home.

There's also the fact that getting a little bit exposed to the virus doesn't make you as sick as if you are very exposed to it. Our immune systems can handle small doses (usually), but not a large amount. This also helps explain why some people (even younger) get very sick, while others barely notice it.

Image
 
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sebolino
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:40 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
The US has been testing far more than any country thus far. That talks a lot about our private industry, and the lack and limited testing in Europe speaks a lot about their public bureaucracy working in times of disaster such as now.


Ah ... I see where you want to go.
Sadly for you, it's totally wrong as Germany is testing way more than in the US with 500000 tests per week.

Funnily enough I found that:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/t ... demic.html

"That talks a lot about our private industry" LOL :-)
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2548
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:41 pm

scbriml wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
Scientific advisors to the UK Government is saying China has downplayed their Coronavirus figures by a factor of 15 to 40.

Meaning 1,200,000 and 3,200,000 real cases.

Take the source for what it is. A tabloid.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... No-10.html


While the Daily Mail is a trash newspaper, they’re just reporting someone else saying this. I doubt anyone believes there were only 3,300 deaths in China.


I agree. It's just that every time I link Daily Mail, I get a nasty comment from someone who will discard any useful info based on the paper itself.

1,2 - 3,2 million infected sounds plausible.

Kiwirob wrote:
Massey Ferguson wasn't American, it was formed by the 1953 merger of farm machinery manufacturers Massey Harris of Canada and the Ferguson Company in Northern Ireland. It didn't become American until the 1990's.


That's interesting, I never knew that. Norway received the small gray (some red) MF tractors as part of the Marshall Plan. Many are still well kept and maintained today. Mostly as a hobby or as a lawn ornament on farms.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1032
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:52 pm

sebolino wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The US has been testing far more than any country thus far. That talks a lot about our private industry, and the lack and limited testing in Europe speaks a lot about their public bureaucracy working in times of disaster such as now.


Ah ... I see where you want to go.
Sadly for you, it's totally wrong as Germany is testing way more than in the US with 500000 tests per week.

Funnily enough I found that:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/t ... demic.html

"That talks a lot about our private industry" LOL :-)


Where are you getting both data? Germany's testing and US' testing? The US has tested more than 831,000 people.

In one day tested 95,000 people. March 28-29.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

So its time for you to prove that Germany is testing more than the US.

BTW, private industry in the US just got a test that in 5 minutes will tell you if you are positive for COVID19 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 932766001/
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2548
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:05 pm

olle wrote:
Sorry the link in swedish :-)

The number of new cases in sweden in need of health care does not seem to increase. It is still to early to get a specific conclusion from only a few days of statistics

https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/tegne ... apa-efter/

The Public Health Authority sees a positive development in the work against the spread of the new corona virus.

The assessment is partly based on the number of new intensive care cases in recent days. However, there may be some lag in reporting this figure, according to the Intensive Care Register.

- It is only today that we hear something that the figures we are possibly getting are wrong, says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.


21 more dead from Coronavirus in Stockholm today. Total 146 dead.

That is far higher than in neighbouring countries:

Sweden: 146 dead
Norway: 32 dead
Denmark: 77 dead
Finland: 13 dead

The number of deceased is a better marker of overall spread in the population than the confirmed case numbers. Yes, Sweden has twice the population if it's neighbours, but this virus spreads mostly in urban areas which aren't so different than the neighbours.

I don't think the Swedish strategy is successful. At least not yet.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8438
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:09 pm

art wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
art wrote:
Availability of antibody tests delayed in UK.





https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21H0SA

I hope he is a few days behind in his knowledge of the situation. I read in the media that antibody testing of key workers in isolation was due to start 24hrs/48hrs ago.


One of the difficulties in creating these test, as I read, elsewhere, is getting blood samples from recovered people. They are donating/cooperating, but it takes time.... the disease runs its course over three weeks or so, I would guess they probably want to give the patient a little time to recover before sticking another needle into him and drawing blood while he might still be weak. It’s just not something you can rush that much.

And as previously noted, you gotta get these tests right. Bad tests = worthless info and unnecessary delays, which are costly.


Are you aware that these are self-test kits, requiring just a drop of blood (not a syringeful)? Take a drop of blood, mix with a reagent as directed, wait 10min-15min and you will get a line showing antibody presence. Quick, easy, cheap at <$10.

Timewise, there are a few people in the UK known to have contracted the virus in the early days of the UK epidemic. They should be ready for antibody testing now.



I was not. I must have been thinking of an article regarding antibody research to create drugs/vaccine... those guys would probably need more.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12500
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:11 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
sebolino wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The US has been testing far more than any country thus far. That talks a lot about our private industry, and the lack and limited testing in Europe speaks a lot about their public bureaucracy working in times of disaster such as now.


Ah ... I see where you want to go.
Sadly for you, it's totally wrong as Germany is testing way more than in the US with 500000 tests per week.

Funnily enough I found that:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/t ... demic.html

"That talks a lot about our private industry" LOL :-)


Where are you getting both data? Germany's testing and US' testing? The US has tested more than 831,000 people.

In one day tested 95,000 people. March 28-29.

https://covidtracking.com/data/

So its time for you to prove that Germany is testing more than the US.


RKI Press conference ..
https://www.wz.de/panorama/wissenschaft ... d-49764499

So your total is, per capita, 40% of what we do per week....and if you keep your peak performance 1/3rd. And we are not done yet, ramp up goal is 200k/day.

South Kora also did more tests that the US, about 3 times more per capita. Iceland beats you by a factor of ten.

Far more than any other country.. hahaha

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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sebolino
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:13 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
https://covidtracking.com/data/

So its time for you to prove that Germany is testing more than the US.

BTW, private industry in the US just got a test that in 5 minutes will tell you if you are positive for COVID19 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 932766001/


https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/27/ger ... 0-per-week

Your nationalism is so cute :-)
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11544
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:17 pm

Test numbers national dick measuring is junior high school nonsense. The available science and public health management tell us every nation needs to maximize their testing capability, period, full stop.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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sebolino
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:20 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here we go again, another one with warnings. The US has been testing far more than any country thus far. That talks a lot about our private industry, and the lack and limited testing in Europe speaks a lot about their public bureaucracy working in times of disaster such as now.


LOL.
Quote from the NY Times:

But as the deadly virus spread from China with ferocity across the United States between late January and early March, large-scale testing of people who might have been infected did not happen — because of technical flaws, regulatory hurdles, business-as-usual bureaucracies and lack of leadership at multiple levels, according to interviews with more than 50 current and former public health officials, administration officials, senior scientists and company executives.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/t ... demic.html

Oh but wait, the USA is a paradise when it comes to bureaucracy isn't it ?? :D
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1032
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:20 pm

sebolino wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
https://covidtracking.com/data/

So its time for you to prove that Germany is testing more than the US.

BTW, private industry in the US just got a test that in 5 minutes will tell you if you are positive for COVID19 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 932766001/


https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/27/ger ... 0-per-week

Your nationalism is so cute :-)


Don't know what it is you are trying to prove. According to this site, the US in the past week tested 551,778 people.
https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

Again I am not here to play the I am better than you card, just that many myths are being debunked as we speak, such as that the European health system is better than the US.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11544
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:23 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
sebolino wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
https://covidtracking.com/data/

So its time for you to prove that Germany is testing more than the US.

BTW, private industry in the US just got a test that in 5 minutes will tell you if you are positive for COVID19 https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 932766001/


https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/27/ger ... 0-per-week

Your nationalism is so cute :-)


Don't know what it is you are trying to prove. According to this site, the US in the past week tested 551,778 people.
https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

Again I am not here to play the I am better than you card, just that many myths are being debunked as we speak, such as that the European health system is better than the US.


On a cost-per-patient and outcomes basis, many European systems are better, on every OECD ratings chart going back years. That has nothing to do wih the present situation, so stop conflating.

In the meantime, Americans ought to be asking why billionaires are STILL jumping the testing line ahead of healthcare workers:

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 06689?s=21
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
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Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:23 pm

sebolino wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here we go again, another one with warnings. The US has been testing far more than any country thus far. That talks a lot about our private industry, and the lack and limited testing in Europe speaks a lot about their public bureaucracy working in times of disaster such as now.


LOL.
Quote from the NY Times:

But as the deadly virus spread from China with ferocity across the United States between late January and early March, large-scale testing of people who might have been infected did not happen — because of technical flaws, regulatory hurdles, business-as-usual bureaucracies and lack of leadership at multiple levels, according to interviews with more than 50 current and former public health officials, administration officials, senior scientists and company executives.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/us/t ... demic.html

Oh but wait, the USA is a paradise when it comes to bureaucracy isn't it ?? :D


Nobody has said mistakes haven't happened. And in your part of the world that's also true.

Here in the US our politicians were worried about fighting among themselves over a failed impeachment attempt. When they could have been focused on this. In Europe they did not have impeachment, but yes you Europeans are so obsessed about the US that probably you were also glued into the stupid spectacle that was going on in the US and got caught with your pants down, now tens of thousands are dead in Europe.
Last edited by AirWorthy99 on Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1032
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:26 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
sebolino wrote:


Don't know what it is you are trying to prove. According to this site, the US in the past week tested 551,778 people.
https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

Again I am not here to play the I am better than you card, just that many myths are being debunked as we speak, such as that the European health system is better than the US.


On a cost-per-patient and outcomes basis, many European systems are better, on every OECD ratings chart going back years. That has nothing to do wih the present situation, so stop conflating.

In the meantime, Americans ought to be asking why billionaires are STILL jumping the testing line ahead of healthcare workers:

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 06689?s=21


Yes you need to rush to the defense of your liberal European friends. I been in Europe, I lived there, beautiful place. But won't ever trade it for my freedoms in the US. Even if some metric says that they have it better than us, this crisis is exposing the myths of their systems. Most importantly the 'unity' of the EU bloc in these times which they really need each other.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Newark727
Posts: 1747
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:29 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Nobody has says mistakes haven't happened. And in your part of the world that's also true.

Here in the US our politicians were worried about fighting among themselves over a failed impeachment attempt. When they could have been focused on this. In Europe they did not have impeachment, but yes you Europeans are so obsessed about the US that probably you were also glued into the stupid spectacle that was going on in the US and got caught with your pants down, now tens of thousands are dead in Europe.


The impeachment rather does seem like a missed opportunity, doesn't it? We could have replaced Trump with someone competent going into this crisis.
 
Etika
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Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:14 am

Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:29 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:

That's called preparation, so that what's occurring in Europe doesn't happen in the US. It appears we have been preparing very well considering we have a 1.+ death rate, whereas in Europe is 6 or 7 times that.

According to 'El Pais' from Spain, Europe is not even counting the dead from COVID-19 correctly. France is not counting those who die outside a hospital, so even the death rates in Europe aren't accurate.
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-29/ ... -bien.html


It's nice that you see the US death rate as positive - excess positivity is in short supply nowadays. However, if one looks how the number of deaths, number of people in ICU and number of cases have developed, that death rate is actually very bad news. Ratios of cases to hospitalizations and cases to deaths suggest that the death rate isn't so much due to better results of cases, but to widespread and unchecked spread of disease at least between 1-2 weeks ago. The death rate is low mostly because those cases have not yet progressed far enough to cause death. But the wave of hospitalizations and deaths is following behind the increase of case numbers.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11544
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:34 pm

Newark727 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Nobody has says mistakes haven't happened. And in your part of the world that's also true.

Here in the US our politicians were worried about fighting among themselves over a failed impeachment attempt. When they could have been focused on this. In Europe they did not have impeachment, but yes you Europeans are so obsessed about the US that probably you were also glued into the stupid spectacle that was going on in the US and got caught with your pants down, now tens of thousands are dead in Europe.


The impeachment rather does seem like a missed opportunity, doesn't it? We could have replaced Trump with someone competent going into this crisis.


Yup - a former governor used to disaster response, like Nikki Haley, would have worked out nicely.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Etika
Posts: 26
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:36 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
21 more dead from Coronavirus in Stockholm today. Total 146 dead.

That is far higher than in neighbouring countries:

Sweden: 146 dead
Norway: 32 dead
Denmark: 77 dead
Finland: 13 dead

The number of deceased is a better marker of overall spread in the population than the confirmed case numbers. Yes, Sweden has twice the population if it's neighbours, but this virus spreads mostly in urban areas which aren't so different than the neighbours.

I don't think the Swedish strategy is successful. At least not yet.


It looks even worse if you look at the number of cases in ICU:

Sweden: 306
Norway: 97
Denmark: 113
Finland: 49

The number of cases in ICU in Sweden has been growing by 20% daily for a while now, which is clearly faster than their neighbors. While the hospital system is still coping with this number, it likely can't handle this rate of growth for much longer. And what would stop it as there hasn't been much new measures to limit the spread in the last two weeks?
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:38 pm

Newark727 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Nobody has says mistakes haven't happened. And in your part of the world that's also true.

Here in the US our politicians were worried about fighting among themselves over a failed impeachment attempt. When they could have been focused on this. In Europe they did not have impeachment, but yes you Europeans are so obsessed about the US that probably you were also glued into the stupid spectacle that was going on in the US and got caught with your pants down, now tens of thousands are dead in Europe.


The impeachment rather does seem like a missed opportunity, doesn't it? We could have replaced Trump with someone competent going into this crisis.


If it would have made you feel good perhaps. But again, Europe did not have Trump and yet look at them. Is it Trump's fault that tens of thousands have died in Europe?

The hate-Trump people make him seem better than what he is. No wonder he has seen a bump in the polls with all this coronavirus crisis. Keep it up and he will be reelected.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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sebolino
Posts: 3561
Joined: Tue May 29, 2001 11:26 pm

Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:38 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here in the US our politicians were worried about fighting among themselves over a failed impeachment attempt. When they could have been focused on this. In Europe they did not have impeachment, but yes you Europeans are so obsessed about the US that probably you were also glued into the stupid spectacle that was going on in the US and got caught with your pants down, now tens of thousands are dead in Europe.



:bigthumbsup: :bigthumbsup: :bigthumbsup:

Now you're showing your true nature. I like that !
Speaking with the hard-core US right is always funny.

Sure, the impeachment explains everything, and as we don't have this in Europe, we have time to solve all problems.
I really love your very thorough comprehension of politics.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8158
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:40 pm

FYI

City of Detroit has a heatmap showing hotspots within the city
https://detroitmi.gov/departments/detro ... zContainer

MI-Oakland County has a dashboard. They are supposed to report by the ZIP Code starting today.
https://www.oakgov.com/covid/dashboard.html

COVID19 seems to spare poor rural counties so far. Urban poor are hit the hardest, Urban rich and suburbia is not spared either.
All posts are just opinions.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1032
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Is Total Lock Down The Answer To Killing Corona Virus?

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:42 pm

sebolino wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Here in the US our politicians were worried about fighting among themselves over a failed impeachment attempt. When they could have been focused on this. In Europe they did not have impeachment, but yes you Europeans are so obsessed about the US that probably you were also glued into the stupid spectacle that was going on in the US and got caught with your pants down, now tens of thousands are dead in Europe.



:bigthumbsup: :bigthumbsup: :bigthumbsup:

Now you're showing your true nature. I like that !
Speaking with the hard-core US right is always funny.

Sure, the impeachment explains everything, and as we don't have this in Europe, we have time to solve all problems.
I really love your very thorough comprehension of politics.


I see, I debunked your claim that Germany tests more than the US, and now you need to mock other parts of my responses. You have a very thorough comprehension of math, if you keep claiming your points without really looking at data.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8438
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:43 pm

Aesma wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Any suggestions why numbers are still going up in the USA. For the most part, people are maintaining social distance, still not making a dent on infections.

I wish some big brains at tech giants with enough computing power should have come up with models on contamination points.

Few tinfoil theories, none validated.
1) These are backlog numbers, doesn't represent now.
2) There are areas social/physical distancing is not being followed.

I am strongly leaning towards self-service gas stations being the issue. This is one topic PSAs should emphasize. NJ debunks this theory though.


What’s on the far end of the flatter curve? It’s not contagion containment, it’s herd immunity. Cases should continue to climb until herd immunity is achieved. That’s my understanding of it, anyways.


I'd say the vaccine is at the far end, because with a flat curve it would take years to reach herd immunity.


Zika reached herd immunity in about two years. For Zika, herd immunity was at about 65% of the population before new case reports dropped sharply. And it was a much less efficient transmission than direct person to person.

For a highly contagious virus, MY UNDERSTANDING is that herd immunity is going to be a higher number than 65%. But the transmission is also much faster.
Last edited by PPVRA on Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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