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TTailedTiger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:19 am

Anyone who supports these extreme and unfounded measures deserves to starve in the depression that follows. We have killed our country in the name of saving a fraction of a %.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:27 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Anyone who supports these extreme and unfounded measures deserves to starve in the depression that follows. We have killed our country in the name of saving a fraction of a %.


‘Unfounded’ based on what peer-reviewed analytical basis and expertise? Yeah, thanks.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:31 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Anyone who supports these extreme and unfounded measures deserves to starve in the depression that follows. We have killed our country in the name of saving a fraction of a %.


‘Unfounded’ based on what peer-reviewed analytical basis and expertise? Yeah, thanks.


The measures certainly didn't seem to help Italy. And Trump only ordered social distancing through April 30. Governor Blackface of VA extended it more than an entire month and just a day past the Republican primary...

And when unemployment hits 40% the death numbers from coronavirus will seem insignificant. Like the president said, he doesn't want the cure to be worse than the disease.
Last edited by TTailedTiger on Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:35 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Anyone who supports these extreme and unfounded measures deserves to starve in the depression that follows. We have killed our country in the name of saving a fraction of a %.


‘Unfounded’ based on what peer-reviewed analytical basis and expertise? Yeah, thanks.


i am beginning to think some people just can´t wait for their inheritance....

I wonder what people in Afghanistan are thinking about the 100k+ dead inflicted over 3k dead on 9/11 in light of the "extreme and unfounded measures" taken for 100k-200k dead as per WH estimate...

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:37 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Anyone who supports these extreme and unfounded measures deserves to starve in the depression that follows. We have killed our country in the name of saving a fraction of a %.


‘Unfounded’ based on what peer-reviewed analytical basis and expertise? Yeah, thanks.


The measures certainly didn'tnt seem to help Italy. And Trump only ordered social distancing through April 30. Governor Blackface of VA extended it more than an entire month and just a day past the Republican primary...

And when unemployment hits 40% the death numbers from coronavirus will seem insignificant. Like the president said, he doesn't want the cure to be worse than the disease.


There were ways to avoid major economic impacts for the working and middle class, but Mnuchin and Kudlow have not entertained the ideas being implemented elsewhere.

Regardless, still waiting for the peer-reviewed analysis showing these public health measures are ‘unfounded’, when in fact most epidemiologists call them sound, and in some cases, too lax.
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tommy1808
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:41 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Anyone who supports these extreme and unfounded measures deserves to starve in the depression that follows. We have killed our country in the name of saving a fraction of a %.


‘Unfounded’ based on what peer-reviewed analytical basis and expertise? Yeah, thanks.


The measures certainly didn'tnt seem to help Italy..


Someone needs to go back to school and learn to deal with numbers:

Image

Italy was at +18% weekly day over day average 2 weeks ago and is now at 7%. The US is at plus 21% day over day 7 day average, and that is with still extremely limited testing compared to Italy.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tommy1808
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:45 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

‘Unfounded’ based on what peer-reviewed analytical basis and expertise? Yeah, thanks.


The measures certainly didn'tnt seem to help Italy. And Trump only ordered social distancing through April 30. Governor Blackface of VA extended it more than an entire month and just a day past the Republican primary...

And when unemployment hits 40% the death numbers from coronavirus will seem insignificant. Like the president said, he doesn't want the cure to be worse than the disease.


There were ways to avoid major economic impacts for the working and middle class, but Mnuchin and Kudlow have not entertained the ideas being implemented elsewhere.

Regardless, still waiting for the peer-reviewed analysis showing these public health measures are ‘unfounded’, when in fact most epidemiologists call them sound, and in some cases, too lax.


..... and just wait for the effects of the economy if millions of homes suddenly come to the market, or Billions of dollar per day in Hospital bills, if Corona wipes key people and know how out of companies ...

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:17 am

"Do everything you can to save every life possible." - Governor of New York:

If the economy contracts by more than 6.4%, more will die from the effects than from COVID-19 - estimate from UK analyst.

That is a dilemma. Governments should be mindful of avoiding killing more people by focussing all their attention on the immediate threat.
Last edited by art on Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:21 am

art wrote:
"Do everything you can to save every life possible." - Governor of New York:

If the economy contracts by more than 6.4%, more will die from the effects than from COVID-19 - estimate from UK analystt.

That is a dilemma. Governments should be mindful of avoiding killing more people by focussing all their attention on the immediate threat.


Precisely why the task force should have considered suspending the holy three - mortgage, rent, and credit. This would have allowed us to freeze and restart the economy with very little disruption to basic services while avoiding massive taxpayer outlay....but it isn’t convenient for the wealthy so of course it wasn’t considered. Taking pressure off businesses and citizens should have been the primary consideration in such an unprecedented scenario.
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tommy1808
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:24 am

art wrote:
"Do everything you can to save every life possible." - Governor of New York:

If the economy contracts by more than 6.4%, more will die from the effects than from COVID-19 - estimate from UK analystt.

That is a dilemma. Governments should be mindful of avoiding killing more people by focussing all their attention on the immediate threat.


cool, there is a dude in the UK that already knows how many will die? How awesome is that....

And gosh geez, how did we never hear about the millions that died in the GFC..

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
94717
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:31 am

art wrote:
"Do everything you can to save every life possible." - Governor of New York:

If the economy contracts by more than 6.4%, more will die from the effects than from COVID-19 - estimate from UK analystt.

That is a dilemma. Governments should be mindful of avoiding killing more people by focussing all their attention on the immediate threat.


In Italy it start to be reports that people is without food and will not be able to pay any bills in the end of the month.

Spain just got out of a terrible economy since 2008 crisis and Italy just avoided it. Nothern Europe thru EU will need to do something this time.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:52 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
I wouldn't trust them with absolutely nothing.


Oh the irony! :rotfl:

TTailedTiger wrote:
I think he will have to be forcefremkved from office.


Maybe you should have your covfefe before posting? :wink2:

TTailedTiger wrote:
Anyone who supports these extreme and unfounded measures deserves to starve in the depression that follows. We have killed our country in the name of saving a fraction of a %.


Did the Great Depression "kill" America? Did WWII "kill" America? Did 9/11 "kill America? Did the GFC "kill" America? You're being overly dramatic as usual. Maybe relax and read a good book - it will help reduce your blood pressure.

Aaron747 wrote:
Precisely why the task force should have considered suspending the holy three - mortgage, rent, and credit.


In the UK, a three month mortgage holiday was one of the first measures introduced by the government. Legislation is still in progress for renters/landlords but bailiffs are not accepting new requests to evict tenants and landlords will be able to take advantage of the mortgage holiday. Not perfect, but a start. My CC companies have already contacted me with advice if I'm having difficulty settling my bills.
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art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:58 am

The way I see it is that governments are making policy decisions based on insufficient data.

I have not heard of a government conducting

- large-scale (say 10,000) random tests for infection to determine how many are infected

- large-scale (say 10,000) random tests for past infection to determine how many have been infected

In the absence of basic data, all government policy is being made on the basis of guesstimation. Not the way to manage a crisis IMO.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:00 am

I was going to post some links to different studies, but all this arguing took the wind out of my sails.

I just wish people understood how bad this is for some people and would stop being so selfish. People are out here trying to save your life and you are criticizing them. If people knew about what we did for Ebola...look at the PPE for Ebola, then look at what the US has in hospitals versus even Italy or China. These people are in paper...paper, and it does nothing...they're going to be infected. Support these people, love these people. And some of you people want to argue about the inaccuracy or under-reporting of China's numbers. And you are arguing about an economy?? That does not matter, it is too late. It's just too late.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:07 am

Pellegrine wrote:
I was going to post some links to different studies, but all this arguing took the wind out of my sails.

I just wish people understood how bad this is for some people and would stop being so selfish. People are out here trying to save your life and you are criticizing them. If people knew about what we did for Ebola...look at the PPE for Ebola, then look at what the US has in hospitals versus even Italy or China. These people are in paper...paper, and it does nothing...they're going to be infected. Support these people, love these people. And some of you people want to argue about the inaccuracy or under-reporting of China's numbers. And you are arguing about an economy?? That does not matter, it is too late. It's just too late.


An economy does matter. We can't help anyone if it completely collapses. The US credit rating will soon be that of junk bonds and airline stock.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:23 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
I was going to post some links to different studies, but all this arguing took the wind out of my sails.

I just wish people understood how bad this is for some people and would stop being so selfish. People are out here trying to save your life and you are criticizing them. If people knew about what we did for Ebola...look at the PPE for Ebola, then look at what the US has in hospitals versus even Italy or China. These people are in paper...paper, and it does nothing...they're going to be infected. Support these people, love these people. And some of you people want to argue about the inaccuracy or under-reporting of China's numbers. And you are arguing about an economy?? That does not matter, it is too late. It's just too late.


An economy does matter. We can't help anyone if it completely collapses. The US credit rating will soon be that of junk bonds and airline stock.


Another argument for why if we had real leadership anywhere, the G20 would already be implementing a temporary credit freeze to give both companies and citizens a breather in this period things cannot function normally. No brainer.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:27 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
I was going to post some links to different studies, but all this arguing took the wind out of my sails.

I just wish people understood how bad this is for some people and would stop being so selfish. People are out here trying to save your life and you are criticizing them. If people knew about what we did for Ebola...look at the PPE for Ebola, then look at what the US has in hospitals versus even Italy or China. These people are in paper...paper, and it does nothing...they're going to be infected. Support these people, love these people. And some of you people want to argue about the inaccuracy or under-reporting of China's numbers. And you are arguing about an economy?? That does not matter, it is too late. It's just too late.


An economy does matter. We can't help anyone if it completely collapses. The US credit rating will soon be that of junk bonds and airline stock.


Another argument for why if we had real leadership anywhere, the G20 would already be implementing a temporary credit freeze to give both companies and citizens a breather in this period things cannot function normally. No brainer.


Finally we can agree on something. But that still only does so much.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:30 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
I was going to post some links to different studies, but all this arguing took the wind out of my sails.

I just wish people understood how bad this is for some people and would stop being so selfish. People are out here trying to save your life and you are criticizing them. If people knew about what we did for Ebola...look at the PPE for Ebola, then look at what the US has in hospitals versus even Italy or China. These people are in paper...paper, and it does nothing...they're going to be infected. Support these people, love these people. And some of you people want to argue about the inaccuracy or under-reporting of China's numbers. And you are arguing about an economy?? That does not matter, it is too late. It's just too late.


An economy does matter. We can't help anyone if it completely collapses. The US credit rating will soon be that of junk bonds and airline stock.


Another argument for why if we had real leadership anywhere, the G20 would already be implementing a temporary credit freeze to give both companies and citizens a breather in this period things cannot function normally. No brainer.


read between the lines: "People should die because an enormous tax cut has depleted our credit, and i don´t want that reversed".

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:38 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

An economy does matter. We can't help anyone if it completely collapses. The US credit rating will soon be that of junk bonds and airline stock.


Another argument for why if we had real leadership anywhere, the G20 would already be implementing a temporary credit freeze to give both companies and citizens a breather in this period things cannot function normally. No brainer.


read between the lines: "People should die because an enormous tax cut has depleted our credit, and i don´t want that reversed".

best regards
Thomas


Happenstance. It’s still incompetence and total lack of management skills on the part of the WH. They couldn’t plan and execute something that callous if they actually tried.
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art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:48 am

I recall when a great debate arose concerning the reliability of infection numbers in Wuhan. I think it was Lightsaber who suggested that a reliable measure would be to count total deaths in the city and to compare it to historical deaths.

I think that this approach would be useful in ascertaining the effects of the virus.

In UK about 500,000 died of all causes in 2018. Let's say 40,000 per month. If 10,000 deaths with COVID-19 involvement are recorded in April but total deaths for the month are 41,000 then it is reasonable to calculate that the virus has increased deaths by 1,000 during the month.

IMO to assess the gravity of COVID-19, the important number is the number of excess deaths that can be attributed to COVID-19 rather than the number in which COVID-19 is involved.

I think it is important to get a clearer idea of the nature of this threat since that should moderate reaction.

PS Regarding reaction, I hear on UK radio that it is estimated that the selfish, inconsiderate panic buying bastards (my description) who cleared the supermarkets of fresh produce here in recent times are estimated to have thrown away £1,000,000,000 worth of the stuff this weekend. Sadly I fear they will clear the shelves again to re-stock and people like me will still not be able to buy the fresh food we normally buy.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:58 am

art wrote:
PS Regarding reaction, I hear on UK radio that it is estimated that the selfish, inconsiderate panic buying bastards (my description) who cleared the supermarkets of fresh produce here in recent times are estimated to have thrown away £1,000,000,000 worth of the stuff this weekend. Sadly I fear they will clear the shelves again to re-stock and people like me will still not be able to buy the fresh food we normally buy.



For various reasons, I've been to three different supermarkets in the last week (shopping for others as well as ourselves) my non-scientific observations were:
    Plenty of fresh fruit and veg (possibly not as much choice as normal, but enough)
    Meat/chicken/fish in good supply.
    Pasta and rice very scarce.
    Tinned food (other than tomatoes) also very scarce.
    Plenty of bread/cereals.

Yes the hoarders have wasted a lot. The only consolation is they've thrown their own money away.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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Cerecl
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:23 am

Dahlgardo wrote:
How about a test of 2000 radomly selected people, just to get an idea of where we're at?

No doubt the impact on the health system is bad, but if it is a consequence of 50% having had the disease or 5% makes a huge difference in the choices we have to make going forward.

Right now we might end up in a situation where we cannot handle future pandemics, afford new cancer treatments etc. because of the impact to our economy now.
Everything has a price.


A survey with size of 2000 has an error of ~2%. Not very useful when the prevalence is <1% in most countries.
Again, prevalence is not very useful in the context of developing easily-transmissible epidemic. 1% may sound like a small percentage, but if measures are not taken you will end up with 2%, 5%, 10% etc. You absolutely do not want even 5% of your population being infectious, because you will lose all control over this disease.
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art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:28 am

scbriml wrote:
art wrote:
PS Regarding reaction, I hear on UK radio that it is estimated that the selfish, inconsiderate panic buying bastards (my description) who cleared the supermarkets of fresh produce here in recent times are estimated to have thrown away £1,000,000,000 worth of the stuff this weekend. Sadly I fear they will clear the shelves again to re-stock and people like me will still not be able to buy the fresh food we normally buy.



For various reasons, I've been to three different supermarkets in the last week (shopping for others as well as ourselves) my non-scientific observations were:
    Plenty of fresh fruit and veg (possibly not as much choice as normal, but enough)
    Meat/chicken/fish in good supply.
    Pasta and rice very scarce.
    Tinned food (other than tomatoes) also very scarce.
    Plenty of bread/cereals.


Yes the hoarders have wasted a lot. The only consolation is they've thrown their own money away.


Well done! You found something to console me while I can't prepare any dishes involving pasta, rice, brocolli, cabbage, cauliflower, carrots etc. I'd better acquire a taste for bread and breakfast cereals, hadn't I? Wonder what goes better with a dinner of corn flakes and toast - a glass of burgundy or a glass of chablis? :(
 
Cerecl
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:37 am

art wrote:
The way I see it is that governments are making policy decisions based on insufficient data.

I have not heard of a government conducting

- large-scale (say 10,000) random tests for infection to determine how many are infected

- large-scale (say 10,000) random tests for past infection to determine how many have been infected

In the absence of basic data, all government policy is being made on the basis of guesstimation. Not the way to manage a crisis IMO.


We have talked about this before. By the time your finish testing 10000 people the prevalence would have changed. Small prevalence in this context does not give you any justification to relax isolation/restriction because it can change rapidly.

The antibody test you mentioned has a number of problems. It is not validated, it misses cases in the early phase of infection and we have no idea how long IgG hangs around in most post-infective cases so the presence of antibodies now may not guarantee immunity in 2 months. The biggest problem is most of the tested will be negative for both IgM and IgG, thus still vulnerable and this test tells us little that we don't already know or expected to change policy.

All the epidemiologists/infectious disease specialists advising various governments are not idiots. If testing for prevalence in this context makes sense it would have been done a while ago.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:43 am

scbriml wrote:
art wrote:
PS Regarding reaction, I hear on UK radio that it is estimated that the selfish, inconsiderate panic buying bastards (my description) who cleared the supermarkets of fresh produce here in recent times are estimated to have thrown away £1,000,000,000 worth of the stuff this weekend. Sadly I fear they will clear the shelves again to re-stock and people like me will still not be able to buy the fresh food we normally buy.



For various reasons, I've been to three different supermarkets in the last week (shopping for others as well as ourselves) my non-scientific observations were:
    Plenty of fresh fruit and veg (possibly not as much choice as normal, but enough)
    Meat/chicken/fish in good supply.
    Pasta and rice very scarce.
    Tinned food (other than tomatoes) also very scarce.
    Plenty of bread/cereals.

Yes the hoarders have wasted a lot. The only consolation is they've thrown their own money away.


Yes the healthy food options are plentiful. So nothing has changed for my diet. My co-workers always laughed at my morning smoothies I would bring in. They only looked gross because the spinach and blueberries turned it black.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:44 am

art wrote:
scbriml wrote:
art wrote:
PS Regarding reaction, I hear on UK radio that it is estimated that the selfish, inconsiderate panic buying bastards (my description) who cleared the supermarkets of fresh produce here in recent times are estimated to have thrown away £1,000,000,000 worth of the stuff this weekend. Sadly I fear they will clear the shelves again to re-stock and people like me will still not be able to buy the fresh food we normally buy.



For various reasons, I've been to three different supermarkets in the last week (shopping for others as well as ourselves) my non-scientific observations were:
    Plenty of fresh fruit and veg (possibly not as much choice as normal, but enough)
    Meat/chicken/fish in good supply.
    Pasta and rice very scarce.
    Tinned food (other than tomatoes) also very scarce.
    Plenty of bread/cereals.


Yes the hoarders have wasted a lot. The only consolation is they've thrown their own money away.


Well done! You found something to console me while I can't prepare any dishes involving pasta, rice, brocolli, cabbage, cauliflower, carrots etc. I'd better acquire a taste for bread and breakfast cereals, hadn't I? Wonder what goes better with a dinner of corn flakes and toast - a glass of burgundy or a glass of chablis? :(


If that’s your take away (no pun) from my post, then I’m sorry. I was just relaying my experience here in the UK since you highlighted it.
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T4thH
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:48 am

art wrote:
The way I see it is that governments are making policy decisions based on insufficient data.

I have not heard of a government conducting

- large-scale (say 10,000) random tests for infection to determine how many are infected

- large-scale (say 10,000) random tests for past infection to determine how many have been infected

In the absence of basic data, all government policy is being made on the basis of guesstimation. Not the way to manage a crisis IMO.


In Germany, the Hemholtz institute will start a test in Apr-2020, which will end in May-2020. 100.000 will be tested. Immunity tests will be performed.
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-grosse-antikoerper-studie-soll-immunitaet-der-deutschen-feststellen-a-c8c64a33-5c0f-4630-bd73-48c17c1bad23

There will be another trial in the district "Heinsberg" which has been hit hardest (and early in Germany) by the University of Bonn. But there I only know, it will start in Apr-2020 and I do not have numbers.
https://www.welt.de/wissenschaft/article206836625/Coronavirus-Aus-Heinsberg-lernen-Studie-soll-Weg-aus-Krise-zeigen.html

They have been waiting for the right antibody speed test (as I already wrote few days ago); fast, reliable, validated, available in high numbers and cheap. Seems to be the case now, they have found them?.
Last edited by T4thH on Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Dahlgardo
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:54 am

Cerecl wrote:
A survey with size of 2000 has an error of ~2%. Not very useful when the prevalence is <1% in most countries.
Again, prevalence is not very useful in the context of developing easily-transmissible epidemic. 1% may sound like a small percentage, but if measures are not taken you will end up with 2%, 5%, 10% etc. You absolutely do not want even 5% of your population being infectious, because you will lose all control over this disease.


So now we're into something interesting, or at least something I can't get my head around.
As it becomes clear, that probably less than 2% of the population have had the covid-19 infection, what should the strategy be going forward?
A vaccine is likely 12-18 months away, and then it has to be produced in large numbers and distributed worldwide.
Building herd immunity at a "controlled" pace requires lockdown measures for a long long time. Say goodbye to public transport, airtravel, spectators at sportevents, cinema...you name it.
I believe it is much too late to contain this disease and make it go away like SARS. It's much too contagious.
Recently I have seen scientists argue for shift to immunity screening rather than screening for infections.
I think that is a good path going forward, but I really have a hard time to see life will be like the next 12 months.
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JJJ
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:56 am

art wrote:

In the absence of basic data, all government policy is being made on the basis of guesstimation. Not the way to manage a crisis IMO.


I'd want you to be in the position of government spokesman telling everyone to wait until there's more data available while people are dying.

Politicians not only need to do something, they need to be seen doing something. That's why so many just-the-flu-ers have done a full 180º.
 
art
Posts: 3971
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:58 am

@Cerecl... you might be interested in some Paul Romer models re:testing (2018 Nobel prizewinner for Economics).

https://paulromer.net/covid-sim-part1/
 
art
Posts: 3971
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:08 am

JJJ wrote:
art wrote:

In the absence of basic data, all government policy is being made on the basis of guesstimation. Not the way to manage a crisis IMO.


I'd want you to be in the position of government spokesman telling everyone to wait until there's more data available while people are dying.

Politicians not only need to do something, they need to be seen doing something. That's why so many just-the-flu-ers have done a full 180º.


I'm not saying governments should do nothing. I am saying that it is of extreme importance that they inform themselves of the nature of the beast (this virus epidemic) if knowledge is to govern their decisions.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1445
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:20 am

art wrote:
I recall when a great debate arose concerning the reliability of infection numbers in Wuhan. I think it was Lightsaber who suggested that a reliable measure would be to count total deaths in the city and to compare it to historical deaths.

I think that this approach would be useful in ascertaining the effects of the virus.

In UK about 500,000 died of all causes in 2018. Let's say 40,000 per month. If 10,000 deaths with COVID-19 involvement are recorded in April but total deaths for the month are 41,000 then it is reasonable to calculate that the virus has increased deaths by 1,000 during the month.

IMO to assess the gravity of COVID-19, the important number is the number of excess deaths that can be attributed to COVID-19 rather than the number in which COVID-19 is involved.

I think it is important to get a clearer idea of the nature of this threat since that should moderate reaction.

PS Regarding reaction, I hear on UK radio that it is estimated that the selfish, inconsiderate panic buying bastards (my description) who cleared the supermarkets of fresh produce here in recent times are estimated to have thrown away £1,000,000,000 worth of the stuff this weekend. Sadly I fear they will clear the shelves again to re-stock and people like me will still not be able to buy the fresh food we normally buy.


If you find current deaths vs. deaths same period last year a valuable metric, the mayor of Bergamo has stated that deaths have quadrupled in his municipality.

There is data out there, we're just not being served the data becuse the projections are horrible.

People are/were hoarding but are they wrong to do so? Perhaps everybody should be hoarding and stuffing their belly full of food before we start seeing shortages?
Also, I have noticed that after a wave of crazy buying, supermarkets in my area have gone quiet. People are now going to the grocery store less often to avoid exposure, so when they buy, they buy a lot.

What will happen if we try to keep the economy running in the face of a disease that hospitalises over 20% of those infected, causes major illness in majority of properly infected people?

1. Nobody wants to go to work knowing they may become exposed at work and take it home to expose family members. Anyone forced to work by their employer will call in sick or go on strike.

2. At the company I work, I'm the last one showing up for work everyday. I made concessions to incentivise the owners to keep me at work. I know how all departments operate and I know the facilities. The reason for this is because I work as freelancer for this company's two branches and to a lesser extent other companies.
Even the big shot postholders and owners are only showing up once a week and I barely cross them. More recently, postholders seem to have been put on welfare too and have reduced or stopped answering emails from clients and customers, and basically I'm left to answer day-to-day requests and flag the ones that require decision-making from postholders.
There's no one to do the cleaning or pick up the garbage, I just collect my own garbage and take it home.
The point that I'm getting at is this: people will not come back to work knowing they have umemployment checks coming that cover a good part of their salary (Europe), or the full salary (US).

The combination of 1. and 2. will make it very hard for people to resume work until the virus is no longer a threat and both 1. and 2. are no longer a factor.

Supermarket unions in Italy and France are calling the shots in how they deal with this situation. Any attempts to force the balance will result in strikes, closed stores, lootings and anarchy.
Even utiities will stop runnong as workers at utilities will have to stay gome to protect their families.
If it gets to that point, forget the economy, we'll be sent back to the middle ages.

This is a very delicate situation, so be careful what you wish for.

Stimulus doesn't cost anybody anything in the short-term. Long-term, sure.
Falling stock markets? Remember the old adage to only invest in stocks what you can afford to lose.

This will go on for months, Government will be printing money and distributing it.
Keep calm, the economy will come back when this is dealt with.

Let's hope that it won't get down to this, which is what Trump means when he said "we wouldn't have had a country by now" :
(The first 15 minutes of the below 2010 documentary portray thw first stages of this pandemic almost perfectly.)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OtP80Z08lfg&t=18s
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14406
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:28 am

Dahlgardo wrote:
Cerecl wrote:
A survey with size of 2000 has an error of ~2%. Not very useful when the prevalence is <1% in most countries.
Again, prevalence is not very useful in the context of developing easily-transmissible epidemic. 1% may sound like a small percentage, but if measures are not taken you will end up with 2%, 5%, 10% etc. You absolutely do not want even 5% of your population being infectious, because you will lose all control over this disease.


So now we're into something interesting, or at least something I can't get my head around.
As it becomes clear, that probably less than 2% of the population have had the covid-19 infection, what should the strategy be going forward?
A vaccine is likely 12-18 months away, and then it has to be produced in large numbers and distributed worldwide.
Building herd immunity at a "controlled" pace requires lockdown measures for a long long time. Say goodbye to public transport, airtravel, spectators at sportevents, cinema...you name it.
I believe it is much too late to contain this disease and make it go away like SARS. It's much too contagious.
Recently I have seen scientists argue for shift to immunity screening rather than screening for infections.
I think that is a good path going forward, but I really have a hard time to see life will be like the next 12 months.


:checkmark:
That is probably why the German government wants to ramp up testing to 200k/day.... that is enough to test the working population in about half a year. Add Antibody testing to that and you can cut down on that as well, especially when considering that some significant share of the working population can work from home and can be tested last.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
JJJ
Posts: 3965
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:33 am

art wrote:
JJJ wrote:
art wrote:

In the absence of basic data, all government policy is being made on the basis of guesstimation. Not the way to manage a crisis IMO.


I'd want you to be in the position of government spokesman telling everyone to wait until there's more data available while people are dying.

Politicians not only need to do something, they need to be seen doing something. That's why so many just-the-flu-ers have done a full 180º.


I'm not saying governments should do nothing. I am saying that it is of extreme importance that they inform themselves of the nature of the beast (this virus epidemic) if knowledge is to govern their decisions.


Data takes time to be collected and analysed, there's confusion and contradicting sources, and in the meantime people die.

Governments are caught between a rock and a hard place.
 
Etika
Posts: 31
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:14 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:47 am

art wrote:
The way I see it is that governments are making policy decisions based on insufficient data.

I have not heard of a government conducting

- large-scale (say 10,000) random tests for infection to determine how many are infected

- large-scale (say 10,000) random tests for past infection to determine how many have been infected

In the absence of basic data, all government policy is being made on the basis of guesstimation. Not the way to manage a crisis IMO.


That the policy is made on basis of guesstimation is pretty much definition of a crisis. As anyone who has done job in emergency preparedness can tell, it is unavoidable feature of especially the early phase of a crisis response as the available data is sparse and unreliable. Obtaining pertinent, reliable data takes time and effort that is not available until much later phase of the crisis. But the nature of the situation is that the decisions must still be made based on the data that is available, even when it is utterly insufficient. And dealing with that reality is pretty much what everything in emergency preparedness revolves around.
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:40 am

Etika wrote:
art wrote:
In the absence of basic data, all government policy is being made on the basis of guesstimation. Not the way to manage a crisis IMO.


That the policy is made on basis of guesstimation is pretty much definition of a crisis.


Don't disagree, so let's (I mean governments) find out as much as we can about what is going on as quickly as possible.

I suggest we start collecting data via testing ASAP. The integrity of the data is not paramount. If 1000 subjects are tested at random and the data returned show that 20 are infected whereas the true number is 24 or 16 is not of crucial importance. If 1000 subjects are tested at random and the data returned show that 200 are infected whereas the true number is 240 or 160 is not of crucial importance.

I read above that Thomas reports that Germany is taking steps to test 200K a day. Wunderbar!
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8895
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:50 am

scbriml wrote:
art wrote:
PS Regarding reaction, I hear on UK radio that it is estimated that the selfish, inconsiderate panic buying bastards (my description) who cleared the supermarkets of fresh produce here in recent times are estimated to have thrown away £1,000,000,000 worth of the stuff this weekend. Sadly I fear they will clear the shelves again to re-stock and people like me will still not be able to buy the fresh food we normally buy.



For various reasons, I've been to three different supermarkets in the last week (shopping for others as well as ourselves) my non-scientific observations were:
    Plenty of fresh fruit and veg (possibly not as much choice as normal, but enough)
    Meat/chicken/fish in good supply.
    Pasta and rice very scarce.
    Tinned food (other than tomatoes) also very scarce.
    Plenty of bread/cereals.

Yes the hoarders have wasted a lot. The only consolation is they've thrown their own money away.


Let's hope hoarders will donate the excess to food banks. I think people have to find a new use for toilet paper, maybe single-use masks for the public, WHO are you listening.

In local news, police found toilet paper dumped on the street. Either someone really sad for losing their precious goods by mistake or mad that they couldn't return it at Costco.
All posts are just opinions.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 14406
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:51 am

art wrote:
Etika wrote:
art wrote:
In the absence of basic data, all government policy is being made on the basis of guesstimation. Not the way to manage a crisis IMO.


That the policy is made on basis of guesstimation is pretty much definition of a crisis.


Don't disagree, so let's (I mean governments) find out as much as we can about what is going on as quickly as possible.

I suggest we start collecting data via testing ASAP. The integrity of the data is not paramount. If 1000 subjects are tested at random and the data returned show that 20 are infected whereas the true number is 24 or 16 is not of crucial importance. If 1000 subjects are tested at random and the data returned show that 200 are infected whereas the true number is 240 or 160 is not of crucial importance.

I read above that Germany is taking steps to do that.


if you want the Data to be +/- 1% correct with 95% confidence for 82.000.000 people, you need to collect 9603 samples ...

But prevalence is likely low, if you test 1000 people out of 82 Million and you expect 1% hits, your margin or error is 0.62%, so unless you find a lot more cases than expected, that is still pretty much useless. Hence the aim for a 100k samples, as that gives you reasonably good data. Now.. how many countries have 100k tests to spare...?

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1445
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:58 am


In places already hard-hit by the virus, such as New York, that date is predicted to come sooner. The state will need around 71,574 hospital beds on April 9, leading to a shortage of more than 58,564 beds, according to the model. New York will also need about 8,855 ventilators.


https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/30/heal ... index.html

It looks like NYC is 10 days from an Italy-style disaster, perhaps even worse.

Time to start preparing hotels to accommodate patients and send in medical staff from across the country.
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 21691
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:01 pm

art wrote:
Etika wrote:
art wrote:
In the absence of basic data, all government policy is being made on the basis of guesstimation. Not the way to manage a crisis IMO.


That the policy is made on basis of guesstimation is pretty much definition of a crisis.


Don't disagree, so let's (I mean governments) find out as much as we can about what is going on as quickly as possible.

I suggest we start collecting data via testing ASAP. The integrity of the data is not paramount. If 1000 subjects are tested at random and the data returned show that 20 are infected whereas the true number is 24 or 16 is not of crucial importance. If 1000 subjects are tested at random and the data returned show that 200 are infected whereas the true number is 240 or 160 is not of crucial importance.

I read above that Thomas reports that Germany is taking steps to test 200K a day. Wunderbar!

How many is Germany testing? The US is the first to test a hundred thousand a day:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/31/tes ... ng-faster/

Now, I have no doubt testing is ramping up. In the USA hundreds of hospitals are qualifying there testing this week. I have no link, but I know of 3 hospitals relatives work in that will start testing this week. Plus there are new tests, such as the touted Abbott labs test.

But how many is Germany currently testing? For their need to be enough tests for random testing. I agree +/- 20% could be tolerated. Right now everyone is under testing, including China whose numbers do not follow any known prior trend.

Lightsaber
5 months without TV. The best decision of my life.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1445
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:16 pm

Grim images coming from NYC.
Hallways full of patients, medical staff on edge.

CNN report: Inside a NYC hospital on the frontlines of the coronavirus outbreak.

https://youtu.be/rgpSC__Nxso

Be strong New Yorkers.
 
JJJ
Posts: 3965
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 5:12 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:53 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
art wrote:
Etika wrote:

That the policy is made on basis of guesstimation is pretty much definition of a crisis.


Don't disagree, so let's (I mean governments) find out as much as we can about what is going on as quickly as possible.

I suggest we start collecting data via testing ASAP. The integrity of the data is not paramount. If 1000 subjects are tested at random and the data returned show that 20 are infected whereas the true number is 24 or 16 is not of crucial importance. If 1000 subjects are tested at random and the data returned show that 200 are infected whereas the true number is 240 or 160 is not of crucial importance.

I read above that Germany is taking steps to do that.


if you want the Data to be +/- 1% correct with 95% confidence for 82.000.000 people, you need to collect 9603 samples ...

But prevalence is likely low, if you test 1000 people out of 82 Million and you expect 1% hits, your margin or error is 0.62%, so unless you find a lot more cases than expected, that is still pretty much useless. Hence the aim for a 100k samples, as that gives you reasonably good data. Now.. how many countries have 100k tests to spare...?


And that assumes you can somehow get a representative sample when you know for sure there are substantial geographic differences.
 
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:58 pm

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