art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:17 pm

China is belatedly taking dramatic measures to try to stop novel coronavirus spreading. The measures may be the right approach and slow the rate of increase but I think that the number of people infected is nevertheless going to keep increasing rapidly and II expect parts of China to be engulfed by this virus. Would the state then concede that attempts to control the virus had failed and call in all the international help it could get? It would be to the advantage of the whole world to defeat the epidemic in the shortest time possible.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:47 pm

On the topic of comparing influenza with nCoV:

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus ... -is-worse/

I agree with this strongly. We DO want people to take steps to prevent what is at least partially preventable. If the coronavirus spreads while the flu is still in its peak season our healthcare system will be overburdened to a severe degree. It's also bad because once it's circulating people will panic at any respiratory symptoms. It's important to tackle this more controllable problem now more than ever-

But to say the seasonal flu is more dangerous because of annual deaths is disingenuous. This thing is new and for something that's only had a couple of months to spread it's been very damaging. We might not know a firm case fatality rate or R0 on this yet but what we do know is that both are higher than seasonal influenza.
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:53 pm

golfradio wrote:
I am not so sure. What is worrisome to me is the possible human to human transmission during the asymptomatic phase. Even if we assume the Briton in Singapore met with someone from Wuhan, they had to be asymptomatic at the time of contact. This is now beyond China.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... and-france

It's that Grand Hyatt meeting which had been the focus in Singapore news for the past few days. It seems like it's turning into a superspreader case quickly.

lugie wrote:
Thank you. I do think that it's a dangerous virus and especially in Wuhan the situation appears to be spiraling out of control but I agree that (at least currently) its international impact seems veeeeerrry minor.


It's all about containment. Almost 5M people from Wuhan left the city before that city went into lockdown, and those people start spreading the virus to other Chinese cities. The 80 year man that's at the center of Diamond Princess, for example, contact the virus despite only being in Shenzhen for a few hours. It's also why major cities like Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and also a few 2nd Tier cities but close to Wuhan like Changsha and Zhengzhou are more affected than others. For example, my in-laws know many people from Shanwei area of Guangdong, and there are only like 5 confirmed cases there, compare to 350+ in Shenzhen and ~300 in Guangzhou, while certain not having 1/60 of the population (Shanwei = ~2.5M, Shenzhen = ~12M, Guangzhou = ~13M), and Shanwei is just ~1 hr (by HSR) from Shenzhen.

lightsaber wrote:
Until testing capacity increase, the most new cases Wuhan can have is ~4400 per day as cases only happen if verified. Thankfully, about 700 per day are negative. Now, I personally wish for more negative.


And only hopefully TRULY negative. IIRC there was a case in Beijing where somebody was tested negative 3 times, only to be tested positive later.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:25 pm

golfradio wrote:
lugie wrote:
I personally would be in favor of banning any and all flights from China (not just LH) and maybe even HK for another month, but right now it seems as though European countries have been rather successful at containing the few cases that have occurred here.


I am not so sure. What is worrisome to me is the possible human to human transmission during the asymptomatic phase. Even if we assume the Briton in Singapore met with someone from Wuhan, they had to be asymptomatic at the time of contact. This is now beyond China.


It has been clarified though that "barely symptomatic" might be what's being observed as "asymptomatic" but the symptoms are non-specific and might not be easily attributed to an infectious disease. Things like body aches, which one might take an NSAID or Acetaminophen for and if they had an elevated temperature at all, it might be suppressed.

Basically, they might not actually be asymptomatic but it'd be VERY difficult for someone to tell it's the coronavirus.
Last edited by Jouhou on Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:37 pm

art wrote:
China is belatedly taking dramatic measures to try to stop novel coronavirus spreading. The measures may be the right approach and slow the rate of increase but I think that the number of people infected is nevertheless going to keep increasing rapidly and II expect parts of China to be engulfed by this virus. Would the state then concede that attempts to control the virus had failed and call in all the international help it could get? It would be to the advantage of the whole world to defeat the epidemic in the shortest time possible.

What kind of help can be actually provided? Money? China has that. Doctors? How many can would volunteer? We're talking thousands doctors needed. Equipment? Is there enough to spare?
This is probably the biggest outbreak in recent decades, more people got sick within past month than in 3 year Ebola crisis. I doubt few planes of stuff and people would make a difference.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:47 pm

kalvado wrote:
art wrote:
China is belatedly taking dramatic measures to try to stop novel coronavirus spreading. The measures may be the right approach and slow the rate of increase but I think that the number of people infected is nevertheless going to keep increasing rapidly and II expect parts of China to be engulfed by this virus. Would the state then concede that attempts to control the virus had failed and call in all the international help it could get? It would be to the advantage of the whole world to defeat the epidemic in the shortest time possible.

What kind of help can be actually provided? Money? China has that. Doctors? How many can would volunteer? We're talking thousands doctors needed. Equipment? Is there enough to spare?
This is probably the biggest outbreak in recent decades, more people got sick within past month than in 3 year Ebola crisis. I doubt few planes of stuff and people would make a difference.


A controversy happening in China right now is how the donated supplies aren't actually making it to where they are needed most. They're ending up in places like in the hands of officials or at hospitals that aren't treating coronavirus patients. With things like that happening, how exactly are we supposed to help China if they can't get their own corruption and bureaucratic dysfunction under control enough to save their own country? The best we can do is avoid panicking so much that we cut off exports of essential items to China until they get their act together.
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kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:55 pm

Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
art wrote:
China is belatedly taking dramatic measures to try to stop novel coronavirus spreading. The measures may be the right approach and slow the rate of increase but I think that the number of people infected is nevertheless going to keep increasing rapidly and II expect parts of China to be engulfed by this virus. Would the state then concede that attempts to control the virus had failed and call in all the international help it could get? It would be to the advantage of the whole world to defeat the epidemic in the shortest time possible.

What kind of help can be actually provided? Money? China has that. Doctors? How many can would volunteer? We're talking thousands doctors needed. Equipment? Is there enough to spare?
This is probably the biggest outbreak in recent decades, more people got sick within past month than in 3 year Ebola crisis. I doubt few planes of stuff and people would make a difference.


A controversy happening in China right now is how the donated supplies aren't actually making it to where they are needed most. They're ending up in places like in the hands of officials or at hospitals that aren't treating coronavirus patients. With things like that happening, how exactly are we supposed to help China if they can't get their own corruption and bureaucratic dysfunction under control enough to save their own country? The best we can do is avoid panicking so much that we cut off exports of essential items to China until they get their act together.

How much was actually sent - would it even make any difference?
Even if it did - would it make sense to defy logistics and enforce long haul transfers through quarantined areas instead of shifting supply flow?
Of course, every little bit helps and all that; but masks - probably the most critical part of it - are getting in short supply halfway across the globe.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:07 pm

kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
What kind of help can be actually provided? Money? China has that. Doctors? How many can would volunteer? We're talking thousands doctors needed. Equipment? Is there enough to spare?
This is probably the biggest outbreak in recent decades, more people got sick within past month than in 3 year Ebola crisis. I doubt few planes of stuff and people would make a difference.


A controversy happening in China right now is how the donated supplies aren't actually making it to where they are needed most. They're ending up in places like in the hands of officials or at hospitals that aren't treating coronavirus patients. With things like that happening, how exactly are we supposed to help China if they can't get their own corruption and bureaucratic dysfunction under control enough to save their own country? The best we can do is avoid panicking so much that we cut off exports of essential items to China until they get their act together.

How much was actually sent - would it even make any difference?
Even if it did - would it make sense to defy logistics and enforce long haul transfers through quarantined areas instead of shifting supply flow?
Of course, every little bit helps and all that; but masks - probably the most critical part of it - are getting in short supply halfway across the globe.


When hospital workers are wearing depends because they can't replace their gear when they take it off to go to the bathroom, everything counts. However I doubt even Chinese donors wanted officials who aren't on the frontlines to be shopping for themselves through the donations and while it's fair for hospitals not working on coronavirus patients to be given some essential supplies the majority should be going to where it's desperately needed.
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kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:13 pm

Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

A controversy happening in China right now is how the donated supplies aren't actually making it to where they are needed most. They're ending up in places like in the hands of officials or at hospitals that aren't treating coronavirus patients. With things like that happening, how exactly are we supposed to help China if they can't get their own corruption and bureaucratic dysfunction under control enough to save their own country? The best we can do is avoid panicking so much that we cut off exports of essential items to China until they get their act together.

How much was actually sent - would it even make any difference?
Even if it did - would it make sense to defy logistics and enforce long haul transfers through quarantined areas instead of shifting supply flow?
Of course, every little bit helps and all that; but masks - probably the most critical part of it - are getting in short supply halfway across the globe.


When hospital workers are wearing depends because they can't replace their gear when they take it off to go to the bathroom, everything counts. However I doubt even Chinese donors wanted officials who aren't on the frontlines to be shopping for themselves through the donations and while it's fair for hospitals not working on coronavirus patients to be given some essential supplies the majority should be going to where it's desperately needed.

Again, this is not an answer. Original question is - is there enough supplies out there to make a difference?
My quick estimate is that Wuhan would need as many masks as US and EU together use per year shipped every week. I am sure few misplaced boxes can be a feel-good or feel-bad thing, but they do nothing to address the problem. Well, sorry, 0.001% is not nothing...
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:22 pm

kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
How much was actually sent - would it even make any difference?
Even if it did - would it make sense to defy logistics and enforce long haul transfers through quarantined areas instead of shifting supply flow?
Of course, every little bit helps and all that; but masks - probably the most critical part of it - are getting in short supply halfway across the globe.


When hospital workers are wearing depends because they can't replace their gear when they take it off to go to the bathroom, everything counts. However I doubt even Chinese donors wanted officials who aren't on the frontlines to be shopping for themselves through the donations and while it's fair for hospitals not working on coronavirus patients to be given some essential supplies the majority should be going to where it's desperately needed.

Again, this is not an answer. Original question is - is there enough supplies out there to make a difference?
My quick estimate is that Wuhan would need as many masks as US and EU together use per year shipped every week. I am sure few misplaced boxes can be a feel-good or feel-bad thing, but they do nothing to address the problem. Well, sorry, 0.001% is not nothing...


There's enough out there for the medical staff. It's just not making it to them. So I did answer that. But it means govt officials need to stop taking N95s for themselves and ordinary citizens need to stop wearing full body suits. I think US exports of N95s alone could support the medical staff of Wuhan. All medical staff in China, probably not. US + EU exports + PRC domestic production yes.


Edit: official death toll in China is now higher than global total for SARS

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia
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c933103
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:21 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
I did not say it was a minor disease, and I did not say it was nothing to worry about. It remains true, and disputes your sarcasm that the US has been exposed for all of December and most of January to a lot of people from Wuhan and there have been no outbreaks. Get real. Early detection, fast laboratory tests, appropriate public health steps including self-isolation and quarantine as necessary may (note I said may) be what is necessary to protect us. China failed miserably, and it needs being noted that the death toll is 25 times higher in Wuhan than the rest of China. The sky may not be falling. It is a tragedy of the first order what has happened in Wuhan, you obviously did not read my earlier posts.

America also have limited testing capability problem. As far as I know currently only a laboratory in Atlanta is doing all the tests, and they're being overran. A sample sent in from Ecuador took 14 days before they get a negative result.
The message in signature have been removed according to demand.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:37 am

c933103 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
I did not say it was a minor disease, and I did not say it was nothing to worry about. It remains true, and disputes your sarcasm that the US has been exposed for all of December and most of January to a lot of people from Wuhan and there have been no outbreaks. Get real. Early detection, fast laboratory tests, appropriate public health steps including self-isolation and quarantine as necessary may (note I said may) be what is necessary to protect us. China failed miserably, and it needs being noted that the death toll is 25 times higher in Wuhan than the rest of China. The sky may not be falling. It is a tragedy of the first order what has happened in Wuhan, you obviously did not read my earlier posts.

America also have limited testing capability problem. As far as I know currently only a laboratory in Atlanta is doing all the tests, and they're being overran. A sample sent in from Ecuador took 14 days before they get a negative result.


Your post is poorly out of date, and had you been reading this thread you would know that the CDC has distributed test kits for thousands of people throughout the US.

ps - Bloomberg is reporting that the Sunday (dateline, read now) Chinese report is that cases in Wuhan are declining, and have plateaued these last four days. Note - I am aware that this could reverse.
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kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:39 am

Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

When hospital workers are wearing depends because they can't replace their gear when they take it off to go to the bathroom, everything counts. However I doubt even Chinese donors wanted officials who aren't on the frontlines to be shopping for themselves through the donations and while it's fair for hospitals not working on coronavirus patients to be given some essential supplies the majority should be going to where it's desperately needed.

Again, this is not an answer. Original question is - is there enough supplies out there to make a difference?
My quick estimate is that Wuhan would need as many masks as US and EU together use per year shipped every week. I am sure few misplaced boxes can be a feel-good or feel-bad thing, but they do nothing to address the problem. Well, sorry, 0.001% is not nothing...


There's enough out there for the medical staff. It's just not making it to them. So I did answer that. But it means govt officials need to stop taking N95s for themselves and ordinary citizens need to stop wearing full body suits. I think US exports of N95s alone could support the medical staff of Wuhan. All medical staff in China, probably not. US + EU exports + PRC domestic production yes.


Edit: official death toll in China is now higher than global total for SARS

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

no you didn't answer. Area needs about 1 billion masks a week. How many were misplaced, thousand? 100 thousand?
Is there a way to get sizeable portion of that billion on sustainable basis - and deliver them to affected area? I suspect whatever was sent - or could be sent - is a drop in a bucket. China probably forced many factories to switch to emergency supplies - I doubt US or EU would even have legal leverage to do that if - or when - shit actually hits their fans.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:49 am

kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Again, this is not an answer. Original question is - is there enough supplies out there to make a difference?
My quick estimate is that Wuhan would need as many masks as US and EU together use per year shipped every week. I am sure few misplaced boxes can be a feel-good or feel-bad thing, but they do nothing to address the problem. Well, sorry, 0.001% is not nothing...


There's enough out there for the medical staff. It's just not making it to them. So I did answer that. But it means govt officials need to stop taking N95s for themselves and ordinary citizens need to stop wearing full body suits. I think US exports of N95s alone could support the medical staff of Wuhan. All medical staff in China, probably not. US + EU exports + PRC domestic production yes.


Edit: official death toll in China is now higher than global total for SARS

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

no you didn't answer. Area needs about 1 billion masks a week. How many were misplaced, thousand? 100 thousand?
Is there a way to get sizeable portion of that billion on sustainable basis - and deliver them to affected area? I suspect whatever was sent - or could be sent - is a drop in a bucket. China probably forced many factories to switch to emergency supplies - I doubt US or EU would even have legal leverage to do that if - or when - shit actually hits their fans.


1 billion masks a week? You're including ordinary citizens. I'm not.

Supplying everyone with adequate surgical masks is a MUCH higher and insurmountable number than supplying only healthcare workers and a few others working in close proximity of confirmed cases with N95 masks.
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L410Turbolet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:55 am

art wrote:
Would the state then concede that attempts to control the virus had failed and call in all the international help it could get? It would be to the advantage of the whole world to defeat the epidemic in the shortest time possible.

Is any such face-losing admission likely happen due to, say, cultural reasons? I seriously doubt it as much as I doubt they at this point any longer know themselves how bad the situation truly is.
As pointed by others, that's the side effect of a totalitarian system which by its very definition disincentivizes honest reporting.
Everyone knew the Chinese government has lied for months with SARS, everyone sane enough could expect them to be lying again.
Not surprisingly, the WHO dropped the ball again, preferring politics of not "offending" the Chinese over genuine safety concerns.
Rather than expecting the leopard to change his spots, its up to the rest to reevalue their half-assed measures (e.g. whatever positive effect on spreading the virus further there was in EU's airlines halting their flights to China, it was eliminated by Chinese airlines being allowed to operate moreless as usual).
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:00 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
art wrote:
Would the state then concede that attempts to control the virus had failed and call in all the international help it could get? It would be to the advantage of the whole world to defeat the epidemic in the shortest time possible.

Is any such face-losing admission likely happen due to, say, cultural reasons? I seriously doubt it as much as I doubt they at this point any longer know themselves how bad the situation truly is.
As pointed by others, that's the side effect of a totalitarian system which by its very definition disincentivizes honest reporting.
Everyone knew the Chinese government has lied for months with SARS, everyone sane enough could expect them to be lying again.
Not surprisingly, the WHO dropped the ball again, preferring politics of not "offending" the Chinese over genuine safety concerns.
Rather than expecting the leopard to change his spots, its up to the rest to reevalue their half-assed measures (e.g. whatever positive effect on spreading the virus further there was in EU's airlines halting their flights to China, it was eliminated by Chinese airlines being allowed to operate moreless as usual).


As annoyed as I am that the WHO is completely pandering to the PRC, they might have made this decision strategically. They might be willing to sacrifice their image for the sake of being allowed access to the situation in China so researchers across the world can have accurate and verified information to work with on a scientific level. So far, it seems the WHO is only playing ball and BSing us on a political level. The information being shared with researchers however seems to be accurate- it's much more grim than the political narrative being put out.
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kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:11 am

Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

There's enough out there for the medical staff. It's just not making it to them. So I did answer that. But it means govt officials need to stop taking N95s for themselves and ordinary citizens need to stop wearing full body suits. I think US exports of N95s alone could support the medical staff of Wuhan. All medical staff in China, probably not. US + EU exports + PRC domestic production yes.


Edit: official death toll in China is now higher than global total for SARS

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

no you didn't answer. Area needs about 1 billion masks a week. How many were misplaced, thousand? 100 thousand?
Is there a way to get sizeable portion of that billion on sustainable basis - and deliver them to affected area? I suspect whatever was sent - or could be sent - is a drop in a bucket. China probably forced many factories to switch to emergency supplies - I doubt US or EU would even have legal leverage to do that if - or when - shit actually hits their fans.


1 billion masks a week? You're including ordinary citizens. I'm not.

Supplying everyone with adequate surgical masks is a MUCH higher and insurmountable number than supplying only healthcare workers and a few others working in close proximity of confirmed cases with N95 masks.

You NEED to supply everyone. That is the way to stop epidemic. 5-10 masks a day per person in the area.
Everything else is feel-good do-nothing.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:32 am

kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
no you didn't answer. Area needs about 1 billion masks a week. How many were misplaced, thousand? 100 thousand?
Is there a way to get sizeable portion of that billion on sustainable basis - and deliver them to affected area? I suspect whatever was sent - or could be sent - is a drop in a bucket. China probably forced many factories to switch to emergency supplies - I doubt US or EU would even have legal leverage to do that if - or when - shit actually hits their fans.


1 billion masks a week? You're including ordinary citizens. I'm not.

Supplying everyone with adequate surgical masks is a MUCH higher and insurmountable number than supplying only healthcare workers and a few others working in close proximity of confirmed cases with N95 masks.

You NEED to supply everyone. That is the way to stop epidemic. 5-10 masks a day per person in the area.
Everything else is feel-good do-nothing.


The best way to stop transmission is not masks, but by making people stay at home. Which is what is happening in Hubei. Btw those Asian mask buying lines are a real risk for transmission. What the hell are they thinking? If you can't buy them online, stay at home.
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kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:41 am

Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

1 billion masks a week? You're including ordinary citizens. I'm not.

Supplying everyone with adequate surgical masks is a MUCH higher and insurmountable number than supplying only healthcare workers and a few others working in close proximity of confirmed cases with N95 masks.

You NEED to supply everyone. That is the way to stop epidemic. 5-10 masks a day per person in the area.
Everything else is feel-good do-nothing.


The best way to stop transmission is not masks, but by making people stay at home. Which is what is happening in Hubei. Btw those Asian mask buying lines are a real risk for transmission. What the hell are they thinking? If you can't buy them online, stay at home.

Yeah, starving people to death is a reliable way to avoid any infections
So, back to the question - is there a billion masks available anywhere to be shipped tomorrow? That may make a little difference.
If not, calls for international help are meaningless..
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:05 am

I'm sure there is an obvious answer to this question, but can't you just wear your shirt (or anything) in front of your face?

The fact that I'm asking this and it's not currently done probably means the answer is no but it'd be interesting to hear why not
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:28 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
I'm sure there is an obvious answer to this question, but can't you just wear your shirt (or anything) in front of your face?

The fact that I'm asking this and it's not currently done probably means the answer is no but it'd be interesting to hear why not


If a primary infectious means is water drops (more graphically body fluids taking flight from coughs and sneezes) then anything stopping those would help. But the problem is how quickly they would saturate and pass though the virus. When I was traveling in the time of SAARS a nurse in Taipai advised that even surgical masks may only be effective for a couple hours.
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maint123
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:39 am

Officicial Chinese figures - 89 new deaths, 2,656 new confirmed cases of coronavirus infection were reported in the Chinese mainland. The total infection number soared to 33,738, with 811 deaths as of 24:00 Feb 8."

Yesterday- "86 new deaths, 3,399 new confirmed cases were reported on Feb 7 in the Chinese mainland, said China's National Health Commission. The total infection number soared to 34,546, with 722 deaths as of Feb 7."

Now these figures seem to be absurd . How have the total infected reduced after a day from 34546 to 33788 , after a increase of 2656 ? Unless they are being cured at a rapid pace ?
Seem to be made up numbers ,to suit a narrative.

And the idiot head of WHO is calling for no restrictions on travel between China and other countries. While China has itself isolated whole provinces !
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:43 am

kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
You NEED to supply everyone. That is the way to stop epidemic. 5-10 masks a day per person in the area.
Everything else is feel-good do-nothing.


The best way to stop transmission is not masks, but by making people stay at home. Which is what is happening in Hubei. Btw those Asian mask buying lines are a real risk for transmission. What the hell are they thinking? If you can't buy them online, stay at home.

Yeah, starving people to death is a reliable way to avoid any infections
So, back to the question - is there a billion masks available anywhere to be shipped tomorrow? That may make a little difference.
If not, calls for international help are meaningless..


That's not rational thinking. The minimum is supplying healthcare workers with supplies they need. That bar MUST be met. Somehow finding billions of masks or even producing them is not feasible, but at the same time is far less beneficial than giving doctors their needed PPE.

FYI while it's a lie that they do nothing to protect people, they don't make you immune to disease nor do they prevent you from spreading it. They are an incremental boost to protection. That is all. And I'm talking about surgical masks because no one even wants to wear N95s on a regular basis. They're uncomfortable and awkward to breathe in. People would end up taking them off or wearing them wrong. It'd be a waste.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:56 am

While it is not intuitive travel restrictions are not all that effective. People find ways around them. Other people will leave more frequently if they suspect a travel ban may be announced. Better to provide appropriate medical care (and food etc) to those who are diagnosed or potentially exposed. And for everyone to limit or reduce their exposure to other people.
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United787
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:14 am

StuckinCMHland wrote:
United787 wrote:
Today, Trump was asked
“Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?”

His response:
"No, China’s working very hard. Late last night I had a very good talk with President Xi and mostly we talked about the coronavirus. They’re working really hard and I think they’re doing a very professional job. They’re in touch with … (the World Health Organization), CDC also."

Does anyone on this earth, besides 40% of the US (his base), believe that Trump's response is an informed one based on information provided to him by the CIA, CDC, State Dept. etc? Or, is it just his gut from his conversation with Xi. I will take the later.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coro ... 879b8447f6


With all due respect, what is it you want Trump to say under the circumstances? Especially under the circumstances of his recent impeachment trial he is obviously not going to say anything that can be twisted into something that could cause a panic in the US, or cause trouble with WHO or the Chinese government. I would greatly enjoy reading what you would say if you were in his place.

It's is obvious the CCP and Xi are lying through their teeth. They screwed this up from the beginning, and since the maintenance of power is all that matters to XI and his friends, millions of dead Chinese will not matter to him. He is the one you need to direct your anger to, not the president of the US who is being cautious with his words.

Your bigotry is showing here with your language, and what exactly do you know about the information he's been given? I am so tired of hearing from people who dislike Trump or the US constantly bashing him, the people who voted for him in 2016 or the country. You don't like the guy, or his policies as president, that's fine, no big deal. Your pejorative language is offensive.


Moderators: before deleting this post, please read it in it's entirety. I have been active on this site for 15 years and don't believe I have a history of being inflammatory. My discussion below is meant to be an honest discussion of the concerns I have with the Trump's Administration ability to handle this crisis. Politics can not be extracted from this discussion. This is the non-aviation forum.

Sorry you offended. I am not a bigot but thank you. I don't like Trump but I can also step back and take every issue objectively and give credit when credit is due. For example, IMHO, Trump is absolutely right to take on China over trade, all of his predecessors and Congress just kept kicking the can. I also applaud the policy so far of banning any non-US citizen that has been in China for the past 14 days. I think it is the first step in the right direction.

There are a lot of things Trump could say that don't cause a panic but also don't perpetuate the lies of the Chinese propaganda machine. He could say that his administration is working with the CDC and the WHO to verify the information coming out of China (assuming that is happening) and not actually answer the question; he doesn't need to actually answer the question directly. He should be concerned about the Chinese cover up. But, by saying no, he isn't concerned, that tells me as an American he believes whatever Xi tells him. (there is a pattern of him taking the word of other strongmen, Putin and Kim Jong-il) If he believes Xi, then that would give me great concern that the US may be under planning for the Coronavirus.

Or maybe Trump is lying as to not cause panic. But that presents another problem. Trump is extremely dishonest and flat out lies on a daily basis. The real problem with that is the boy that cried wolf syndrome. Example, is the strike on Qassim Suleimani. I actually agree in concept with the action. But the evolving justification and history of lies made the whole thing backfire on him and the US. In general I trust the US government and I have trusted most of what comes out officially from the Obama, Bush, Clinton and Bush administrations. But, I think most Americans can't trust that we are getting truthful information from this administration. That is a very real problem. We are not China, we are the US and we should be able to trust what comes out of our president's mouth and twitter feed.

Lastly, I don't have a lot of faith that this administration is working together with all of the relevant departments to handle this crisis properly. There are a lot of legitimate reasons for my lack of faith: He hasn't surrounded himself with the best people, most of the best have left the administration and the ones that remain are sycophants. He doesn't take the time to educate himself on the issues and doesn't listen to the professionals, he prefers to go with his gut. Will he take the time to understand the issue at hand and lead his administration? I am not so sure. He often berates and degrades the dedicated civil servants that work in all levels of government (what people call the "deep state"). These are the people that do all of the hard work and help make this country so great. These are the people that will be working hard to fight this virus in the US. He has gutted many areas of the government, some of which are crucial in the battle against the Coronavirus, like the State Department. This Administration has not had a great track record of executing major issues: family separation issue at borders; withdrawal from Syria; replacement of Obamacare etc. There have been some successes: NAFTA and Tax Reform but the results were a mild changes to what was promised. Overall, the Administration has been a trainwreck and that has me very concerned with what might be on the horizon with the Coronavirus.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2335
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:31 am

Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

The best way to stop transmission is not masks, but by making people stay at home. Which is what is happening in Hubei. Btw those Asian mask buying lines are a real risk for transmission. What the hell are they thinking? If you can't buy them online, stay at home.

Yeah, starving people to death is a reliable way to avoid any infections
So, back to the question - is there a billion masks available anywhere to be shipped tomorrow? That may make a little difference.
If not, calls for international help are meaningless..


That's not rational thinking. The minimum is supplying healthcare workers with supplies they need. That bar MUST be met. Somehow finding billions of masks or even producing them is not feasible, but at the same time is far less beneficial than giving doctors their needed PPE.

FYI while it's a lie that they do nothing to protect people, they don't make you immune to disease nor do they prevent you from spreading it. They are an incremental boost to protection. That is all. And I'm talking about surgical masks because no one even wants to wear N95s on a regular basis. They're uncomfortable and awkward to breathe in. People would end up taking them off or wearing them wrong. It'd be a waste.

First priority is stopping disease spread - or at least buying time to prepare. Pure numbers.
Those behind quarantine line may be already dead for practical purposes. Entire Wuhan dying out is still better off than 2% mortality worldwide. It is not humane, it really sucks if you're the one being written off - but this is the way epidemic numbers work.
While healthcare may save a few tens thousands lives, stopping disease may save a few tens millions lives.
So massive mask supply to nominally healthy population as a first priority. Isolation, desinfection, screenings are on the same page.

Yes, treatment is important consideration - not only to actually heal people, but to provide people with incentive to actually report sickness. But this is a secondary consideration, after all.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3158
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:37 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
While it is not intuitive travel restrictions are not all that effective. People find ways around them. Other people will leave more frequently if they suspect a travel ban may be announced. Better to provide appropriate medical care (and food etc) to those who are diagnosed or potentially exposed. And for everyone to limit or reduce their exposure to other people.


Case in point for "leave more frequently" - Hong Kong. They announced a mandatory quarantine for anyone entering from mainland on 2/5, starting 2/8. Guess what happen on 2/6 and 2/7? A rush to the border.

As for travel restrictions - as some said, it slow down the spread, but you'll never eliminate it. Slowing things down, however, makes the number of people that require medical care more manageable, and thus, doesn't overload the healthcare system.

Jouhou wrote:
The best way to stop transmission is not masks, but by making people stay at home. Which is what is happening in Hubei. Btw those Asian mask buying lines are a real risk for transmission. What the hell are they thinking? If you can't buy them online, stay at home.


At least in HK, some people simply doesn't really have a choice of "stay at home". They have to still go to work (Don't ask me...that's yet another hotbed for spreading the virus) at an office just b/c, well, it's Hong Kong and it's full of companies that are extremely outdated in both management style AND technology.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2335
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:39 am

United787 wrote:
StuckinCMHland wrote:
United787 wrote:
Today, Trump was asked
“Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?”

His response:
"No, China’s working very hard. Late last night I had a very good talk with President Xi and mostly we talked about the coronavirus. They’re working really hard and I think they’re doing a very professional job. They’re in touch with … (the World Health Organization), CDC also."

Does anyone on this earth, besides 40% of the US (his base), believe that Trump's response is an informed one based on information provided to him by the CIA, CDC, State Dept. etc? Or, is it just his gut from his conversation with Xi. I will take the later.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coro ... 879b8447f6


With all due respect, what is it you want Trump to say under the circumstances? Especially under the circumstances of his recent impeachment trial he is obviously not going to say anything that can be twisted into something that could cause a panic in the US, or cause trouble with WHO or the Chinese government. I would greatly enjoy reading what you would say if you were in his place.

It's is obvious the CCP and Xi are lying through their teeth. They screwed this up from the beginning, and since the maintenance of power is all that matters to XI and his friends, millions of dead Chinese will not matter to him. He is the one you need to direct your anger to, not the president of the US who is being cautious with his words.

Your bigotry is showing here with your language, and what exactly do you know about the information he's been given? I am so tired of hearing from people who dislike Trump or the US constantly bashing him, the people who voted for him in 2016 or the country. You don't like the guy, or his policies as president, that's fine, no big deal. Your pejorative language is offensive.


Moderators: before deleting this post, please read it in it's entirety. I have been active on this site for 15 years and don't believe I have a history of being inflammatory. My discussion below is meant to be an honest discussion of the concerns I have with the Trump's Administration ability to handle this crisis. Politics can not be extracted from this discussion. This is the non-aviation forum.

Sorry you offended. I am not a bigot but thank you. I don't like Trump but I can also step back and take every issue objectively and give credit when credit is due. For example, IMHO, Trump is absolutely right to take on China over trade, all of his predecessors and Congress just kept kicking the can. I also applaud the policy so far of banning any non-US citizen that has been in China for the past 14 days. I think it is the first step in the right direction.

There are a lot of things Trump could say that don't cause a panic but also don't perpetuate the lies of the Chinese propaganda machine. He could say that his administration is working with the CDC and the WHO to verify the information coming out of China (assuming that is happening) and not actually answer the question; he doesn't need to actually answer the question directly. He should be concerned about the Chinese cover up. But, by saying no, he isn't concerned, that tells me as an American he believes whatever Xi tells him. (there is a pattern of him taking the word of other strongmen, Putin and Kim Jong-il) If he believes Xi, then that would give me great concern that the US may be under planning for the Coronavirus.

Or maybe Trump is lying as to not cause panic. But that presents another problem. Trump is extremely dishonest and flat out lies on a daily basis. The real problem with that is the boy that cried wolf syndrome. Example, is the strike on Qassim Suleimani. I actually agree in concept with the action. But the evolving justification and history of lies made the whole thing backfire on him and the US. In general I trust the US government and I have trusted most of what comes out officially from the Obama, Bush, Clinton and Bush administrations. But, I think most Americans can't trust that we are getting truthful information from this administration. That is a very real problem. We are not China, we are the US and we should be able to trust what comes out of our president's mouth and twitter feed.

Lastly, I don't have a lot of faith that this administration is working together with all of the relevant departments to handle this crisis properly. There are a lot of legitimate reasons for my lack of faith: He hasn't surrounded himself with the best people, most of the best have left the administration and the ones that remain are sycophants. He doesn't take the time to educate himself on the issues and doesn't listen to the professionals, he prefers to go with his gut. Will he take the time to understand the issue at hand and lead his administration? I am not so sure. He often berates and degrades the dedicated civil servants that work in all levels of government (what people call the "deep state"). These are the people that do all of the hard work and help make this country so great. These are the people that will be working hard to fight this virus in the US. He has gutted many areas of the government, some of which are crucial in the battle against the Coronavirus, like the State Department. This Administration has not had a great track record of executing major issues: family separation issue at borders; withdrawal from Syria; replacement of Obamacare etc. There have been some successes: NAFTA and Tax Reform but the results were a mild changes to what was promised. Overall, the Administration has been a trainwreck and that has me very concerned with what might be on the horizon with the Coronavirus.


Not everything is about being pro- or anti-Trump.
Like it or hate it - but so far US response seem pretty professional. CDC is getting tests available. Dedicated entry points for testing. Travel restrictions. Quarantines to evacuees. Two last items may be politically hot topics due to human rights and wouldn't be done without approval from the top, BTW. Talk is about vaccine being ready quite soon.
Is there really more that can be done? Maybe. But I wouldn't say anything is really wrong...
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2370
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:54 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
While it is not intuitive travel restrictions are not all that effective. People find ways around them. Other people will leave more frequently if they suspect a travel ban may be announced. Better to provide appropriate medical care (and food etc) to those who are diagnosed or potentially exposed. And for everyone to limit or reduce their exposure to other people.


Case in point for "leave more frequently" - Hong Kong. They announced a mandatory quarantine for anyone entering from mainland on 2/5, starting 2/8. Guess what happen on 2/6 and 2/7? A rush to the border.

As for travel restrictions - as some said, it slow down the spread, but you'll never eliminate it. Slowing things down, however, makes the number of people that require medical care more manageable, and thus, doesn't overload the healthcare system.

Jouhou wrote:
The best way to stop transmission is not masks, but by making people stay at home. Which is what is happening in Hubei. Btw those Asian mask buying lines are a real risk for transmission. What the hell are they thinking? If you can't buy them online, stay at home.


At least in HK, some people simply doesn't really have a choice of "stay at home". They have to still go to work (Don't ask me...that's yet another hotbed for spreading the virus) at an office just b/c, well, it's Hong Kong and it's full of companies that are extremely outdated in both management style AND technology.


Oh, I understand employers not caring, I'd just expect the government to step in and A.) Require masks be delivery only so the crowds are online, not in person and B.) Have a plan to shut down non-essential workplaces if the infections continue to spread in HK and employers can't provide adequate protection to employees.

Hong Kong is very densely populated. Draconian measures seen in Hubei might be necessary for the sake of not causing the healthcare system to collapse and mass casualties to ensue.

As for the U.S. response- we really don't have a good plan if it spreads here. Trust me. Stopping spread at our borders and holding it off until a vaccine is developed is our only hope.
情報
 
c933103
Posts: 3955
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:30 am

Jouhou wrote:
L410Turbolet wrote:
art wrote:
Would the state then concede that attempts to control the virus had failed and call in all the international help it could get? It would be to the advantage of the whole world to defeat the epidemic in the shortest time possible.

Is any such face-losing admission likely happen due to, say, cultural reasons? I seriously doubt it as much as I doubt they at this point any longer know themselves how bad the situation truly is.
As pointed by others, that's the side effect of a totalitarian system which by its very definition disincentivizes honest reporting.
Everyone knew the Chinese government has lied for months with SARS, everyone sane enough could expect them to be lying again.
Not surprisingly, the WHO dropped the ball again, preferring politics of not "offending" the Chinese over genuine safety concerns.
Rather than expecting the leopard to change his spots, its up to the rest to reevalue their half-assed measures (e.g. whatever positive effect on spreading the virus further there was in EU's airlines halting their flights to China, it was eliminated by Chinese airlines being allowed to operate moreless as usual).


As annoyed as I am that the WHO is completely pandering to the PRC, they might have made this decision strategically. They might be willing to sacrifice their image for the sake of being allowed access to the situation in China so researchers across the world can have accurate and verified information to work with on a scientific level. So far, it seems the WHO is only playing ball and BSing us on a political level. The information being shared with researchers however seems to be accurate- it's much more grim than the political narrative being put out.

Most of the information released by WHO are just a repetition of what China announced themselves. With time delay. So it would have been even more useful to send a few translator to China's press evebt instead of trying to make them cooperate with WHO.
The message in signature have been removed according to demand.
 
c933103
Posts: 3955
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 7:23 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:32 am

Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

The best way to stop transmission is not masks, but by making people stay at home. Which is what is happening in Hubei. Btw those Asian mask buying lines are a real risk for transmission. What the hell are they thinking? If you can't buy them online, stay at home.

Yeah, starving people to death is a reliable way to avoid any infections
So, back to the question - is there a billion masks available anywhere to be shipped tomorrow? That may make a little difference.
If not, calls for international help are meaningless..


That's not rational thinking. The minimum is supplying healthcare workers with supplies they need. That bar MUST be met. Somehow finding billions of masks or even producing them is not feasible, but at the same time is far less beneficial than giving doctors their needed PPE.

FYI while it's a lie that they do nothing to protect people, they don't make you immune to disease nor do they prevent you from spreading it. They are an incremental boost to protection. That is all. And I'm talking about surgical masks because no one even wants to wear N95s on a regular basis. They're uncomfortable and awkward to breathe in. People would end up taking them off or wearing them wrong. It'd be a waste.

China now claim the daily production of N95 mask in Hubei is sufficient for medical staffs in the province.
The message in signature have been removed according to demand.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 711
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:33 am

kalvado wrote:
United787 wrote:
StuckinCMHland wrote:

With all due respect, what is it you want Trump to say under the circumstances? Especially under the circumstances of his recent impeachment trial he is obviously not going to say anything that can be twisted into something that could cause a panic in the US, or cause trouble with WHO or the Chinese government. I would greatly enjoy reading what you would say if you were in his place.

It's is obvious the CCP and Xi are lying through their teeth. They screwed this up from the beginning, and since the maintenance of power is all that matters to XI and his friends, millions of dead Chinese will not matter to him. He is the one you need to direct your anger to, not the president of the US who is being cautious with his words.

Your bigotry is showing here with your language, and what exactly do you know about the information he's been given? I am so tired of hearing from people who dislike Trump or the US constantly bashing him, the people who voted for him in 2016 or the country. You don't like the guy, or his policies as president, that's fine, no big deal. Your pejorative language is offensive.


Moderators: before deleting this post, please read it in it's entirety. I have been active on this site for 15 years and don't believe I have a history of being inflammatory. My discussion below is meant to be an honest discussion of the concerns I have with the Trump's Administration ability to handle this crisis. Politics can not be extracted from this discussion. This is the non-aviation forum.

Sorry you offended. I am not a bigot but thank you. I don't like Trump but I can also step back and take every issue objectively and give credit when credit is due. For example, IMHO, Trump is absolutely right to take on China over trade, all of his predecessors and Congress just kept kicking the can. I also applaud the policy so far of banning any non-US citizen that has been in China for the past 14 days. I think it is the first step in the right direction.

There are a lot of things Trump could say that don't cause a panic but also don't perpetuate the lies of the Chinese propaganda machine. He could say that his administration is working with the CDC and the WHO to verify the information coming out of China (assuming that is happening) and not actually answer the question; he doesn't need to actually answer the question directly. He should be concerned about the Chinese cover up. But, by saying no, he isn't concerned, that tells me as an American he believes whatever Xi tells him. (there is a pattern of him taking the word of other strongmen, Putin and Kim Jong-il) If he believes Xi, then that would give me great concern that the US may be under planning for the Coronavirus.

Or maybe Trump is lying as to not cause panic. But that presents another problem. Trump is extremely dishonest and flat out lies on a daily basis. The real problem with that is the boy that cried wolf syndrome. Example, is the strike on Qassim Suleimani. I actually agree in concept with the action. But the evolving justification and history of lies made the whole thing backfire on him and the US. In general I trust the US government and I have trusted most of what comes out officially from the Obama, Bush, Clinton and Bush administrations. But, I think most Americans can't trust that we are getting truthful information from this administration. That is a very real problem. We are not China, we are the US and we should be able to trust what comes out of our president's mouth and twitter feed.

Lastly, I don't have a lot of faith that this administration is working together with all of the relevant departments to handle this crisis properly. There are a lot of legitimate reasons for my lack of faith: He hasn't surrounded himself with the best people, most of the best have left the administration and the ones that remain are sycophants. He doesn't take the time to educate himself on the issues and doesn't listen to the professionals, he prefers to go with his gut. Will he take the time to understand the issue at hand and lead his administration? I am not so sure. He often berates and degrades the dedicated civil servants that work in all levels of government (what people call the "deep state"). These are the people that do all of the hard work and help make this country so great. These are the people that will be working hard to fight this virus in the US. He has gutted many areas of the government, some of which are crucial in the battle against the Coronavirus, like the State Department. This Administration has not had a great track record of executing major issues: family separation issue at borders; withdrawal from Syria; replacement of Obamacare etc. There have been some successes: NAFTA and Tax Reform but the results were a mild changes to what was promised. Overall, the Administration has been a trainwreck and that has me very concerned with what might be on the horizon with the Coronavirus.


Not everything is about being pro- or anti-Trump.
Like it or hate it - but so far US response seem pretty professional. CDC is getting tests available. Dedicated entry points for testing. Travel restrictions. Quarantines to evacuees. Two last items may be politically hot topics due to human rights and wouldn't be done without approval from the top, BTW. Talk is about vaccine being ready quite soon.
Is there really more that can be done? Maybe. But I wouldn't say anything is really wrong...


I would have to agree, the US response has been adequate. Not underdone, not overdone, but every little escalation was followed by measures to prevent further escalation.
It even earned Trump some criticism from China.

The problem is the EU.
There is no plan, no leadership, nothing is being done, everything takes so much time. They can't even lie because they can't agree on which lies to tell.
The Italians already said, F it, EU or no EU we're doing this our way.

As for the WHO, they could be playing ball with china for the greater good, or it could be just that they're being idiots. Don't underestimate the human potential for idiocy.
Just today I read somewhere that the WHO said that the virus is spreading less fast based on less confirmed cases today.

In the meanwhile in the real world:

HEALTH NEWSJANUARY 27, 2020 / 6:46 PM / 12 DAYS AGO
Confusion and lost time: how testing woes slowed China's coronavirus response


BEIJING (Reuters) - Yang Zhongyi was still waiting on Monday for a coronavirus test in the Chinese city of Wuhan two weeks after she started to show signs of a fever, even though doctors privately told her family that she almost certainly has been infected, her son Zhang Changchun told Reuters.

Yang, 53, is just one of many Wuhan inhabitants finding it difficult to get tested or receive treatment for the new form of coronavirus, which authorities say has infected 2,800 people and killed at least 80 in China, a situation that may be contributing to the spread of the disease.

Yang has been unable to gain full-time admission to a hospital, her son said. She has been put on drips in unquarantined areas at four separate hospitals in the city to treat her deteriorating lungs, he said, while he is doing what he can to get her tested or admitted full-time.

“My brother and I have been queuing at the hospital every day. We go at 6 and 7 in the morning, and queue for the whole day, but we don’t get any new answers,” Zhang told Reuters. “Every time the responses are the same: ‘There’s no bed, wait for the government to give a notice, and follow the news to see what’s going on.’ The doctors are all very frustrated too.”

(...)

STILL WAITING
Seven of the largest hospitals in Wuhan are now equipped with testing kits for the virus, which in theory deliver results within a day, the Hubei CDC official said.

But four people told Reuters they were refused tests because the process involved a complex reporting system including hospital, district and city health authorities and disease control officials.

Slideshow (3 Images)
To qualify for the test, patients need to meet certain criteria, such as having symptoms of fever and pneumonia, and a surge in patients means it is “impossible to conduct the test right away,” an official at the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention told Reuters.

Three hospital and local government workers, who have been briefed on how doctors are handling tests and confirming cases, told Reuters that official numbers of infections and deaths do not reflect the actual toll.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1ZQ21K
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2370
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:41 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
.


I repeat, I work for a US agency, I'm extremely alarmed at the lack of a plan. I don't know if the CDC has one, but if they do they need to tell the rest of us soon. We don't have one. We need top down direction, government agencies don't move because of grassroots movements amongst employees. So far we've heard nothing. Silence.
情報
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 711
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 4:57 am

Jouhou wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
.


I repeat, I work for a US agency, I'm extremely alarmed at the lack of a plan. I don't know if the CDC has one, but if they do they need to tell the rest of us soon. We don't have one. We need top down direction, government agencies don't move because of grassroots movements amongst employees. So far we've heard nothing. Silence.


The US has secured test kits through the CDC, implemented a no non-sense travel ban for anyone who's been in China in the past 14 days and they're probably quietly preparing negative pressure rooms and quarantien area's as we speak. This buys them a lot of time should the situation escalate.

To give an example, France and Germany have no plan, no directions for their agencies, not enough test kits, no travel restrictions, nothing.
Only more case every day and it's about to get bad, believe me.

Next week will be crucial, as many businesses in China start operating again, which is the worst thing that can happen.
It will become a very deadly cocktail with the virus spreading all over the place in China, and from there to everywhere else.
After all, the containment strategy in the Hubei province has failed, so what does China have to lose if it spreads to everywhere else in the world?
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2370
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:05 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
.


I repeat, I work for a US agency, I'm extremely alarmed at the lack of a plan. I don't know if the CDC has one, but if they do they need to tell the rest of us soon. We don't have one. We need top down direction, government agencies don't move because of grassroots movements amongst employees. So far we've heard nothing. Silence.


The US has secured test kits through the CDC, implemented a no non-sense travel ban for anyone who's been in China in the past 14 days and they're probably quietly preparing negative pressure rooms and quarantien area's as we speak. This buys them a lot of time should the situation escalate.

To give an example, France and Germany have no plan, no directions for their agencies, not enough test kits, no travel restrictions, nothing.
Only more case every day and it's about to get bad, believe me.

Next week will be crucial, as many businesses in China start operating again, which is the worst thing that can happen.
It will become a very deadly cocktail with the virus spreading all over the place in China, and from there to everywhere else.
After all, the containment strategy in the Hubei province has failed, so what does China have to lose if it spreads to everywhere else in the world?


I meant beyond stopping it from entering, that might only last for so long. For hindering its spread once it takes hold, our operational readiness is at zero. Even when it doesn't kill people, it destroys their immune systems and takes a large proportion of people infected out of commission for a damn month. It would be absolute chaos. Btw our economy would be damaged beyond repair too.

Also France is well prepared. Their national stockpile is much MUCH more robust than ours for this scenario.
情報
 
kalvado
Posts: 2335
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:45 am

Jouhou wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

I repeat, I work for a US agency, I'm extremely alarmed at the lack of a plan. I don't know if the CDC has one, but if they do they need to tell the rest of us soon. We don't have one. We need top down direction, government agencies don't move because of grassroots movements amongst employees. So far we've heard nothing. Silence.


The US has secured test kits through the CDC, implemented a no non-sense travel ban for anyone who's been in China in the past 14 days and they're probably quietly preparing negative pressure rooms and quarantien area's as we speak. This buys them a lot of time should the situation escalate.

To give an example, France and Germany have no plan, no directions for their agencies, not enough test kits, no travel restrictions, nothing.
Only more case every day and it's about to get bad, believe me.

Next week will be crucial, as many businesses in China start operating again, which is the worst thing that can happen.
It will become a very deadly cocktail with the virus spreading all over the place in China, and from there to everywhere else.
After all, the containment strategy in the Hubei province has failed, so what does China have to lose if it spreads to everywhere else in the world?


I meant beyond stopping it from entering, that might only last for so long. For hindering its spread once it takes hold, our operational readiness is at zero. Even when it doesn't kill people, it destroys their immune systems and takes a large proportion of people infected out of commission for a damn month. It would be absolute chaos. Btw our economy would be damaged beyond repair too.

Also France is well prepared. Their national stockpile is much MUCH more robust than ours for this scenario.

I doubt there is anything new what wasn't thought of decades ago. Quarantine, isolation, triage. Lookup more on conspiracy theory sites, e.g. about coffin stockpile in Atlanta.
If any of such plans get public, there will be major outcry from political opponents about fear mongering, human rights and a bunch of comments how this is only done to mess with oncoming nomination and elections.
Right now, emphasis is on preventing infection from entering the country, and dealing with isolated cases. Same as it was with Ebola, for example. And looks like things are working so far (knocking the wood)
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2370
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:03 am

kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

The US has secured test kits through the CDC, implemented a no non-sense travel ban for anyone who's been in China in the past 14 days and they're probably quietly preparing negative pressure rooms and quarantien area's as we speak. This buys them a lot of time should the situation escalate.

To give an example, France and Germany have no plan, no directions for their agencies, not enough test kits, no travel restrictions, nothing.
Only more case every day and it's about to get bad, believe me.

Next week will be crucial, as many businesses in China start operating again, which is the worst thing that can happen.
It will become a very deadly cocktail with the virus spreading all over the place in China, and from there to everywhere else.
After all, the containment strategy in the Hubei province has failed, so what does China have to lose if it spreads to everywhere else in the world?


I meant beyond stopping it from entering, that might only last for so long. For hindering its spread once it takes hold, our operational readiness is at zero. Even when it doesn't kill people, it destroys their immune systems and takes a large proportion of people infected out of commission for a damn month. It would be absolute chaos. Btw our economy would be damaged beyond repair too.

Also France is well prepared. Their national stockpile is much MUCH more robust than ours for this scenario.

I doubt there is anything new what wasn't thought of decades ago. Quarantine, isolation, triage. Lookup more on conspiracy theory sites, e.g. about coffin stockpile in Atlanta.
If any of such plans get public, there will be major outcry from political opponents about fear mongering, human rights and a bunch of comments how this is only done to mess with oncoming nomination and elections.
Right now, emphasis is on preventing infection from entering the country, and dealing with isolated cases. Same as it was with Ebola, for example. And looks like things are working so far (knocking the wood)


How about emergency plans for when it strikes a government facility, and operations are forced to be curtailed? How about planning out the frequent cleaning and disinfection of potential fomites so that it it is introduced to a facility its transmission recognized in time to spare at least some of the occupants of that facility? How about giving hand sanitizer to those who aren't near a sink to wash their hands in? There are not even basic prevention plans in place currently. It appears private industry is doing a better job preparing than government agencies that are still waiting for this silence to be broken.

Also, Ebola doesn't spread easily. It's spread in Africa is amplified by some cultural traditions that we do not engage in and other factors that aren't a problem here. It was never a serious threat to us. It's just a terrible thing in Africa that is still killing our fellow humans, it's pretty limited in geographic spread. It shouldn't be ignored but we have no reason to be afraid.

A respiratory pathogen will always be a threat to the whole world, including wealthy countries. It is far more threatening to us.
情報
 
kalvado
Posts: 2335
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:29 am

Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

I meant beyond stopping it from entering, that might only last for so long. For hindering its spread once it takes hold, our operational readiness is at zero. Even when it doesn't kill people, it destroys their immune systems and takes a large proportion of people infected out of commission for a damn month. It would be absolute chaos. Btw our economy would be damaged beyond repair too.

Also France is well prepared. Their national stockpile is much MUCH more robust than ours for this scenario.

I doubt there is anything new what wasn't thought of decades ago. Quarantine, isolation, triage. Lookup more on conspiracy theory sites, e.g. about coffin stockpile in Atlanta.
If any of such plans get public, there will be major outcry from political opponents about fear mongering, human rights and a bunch of comments how this is only done to mess with oncoming nomination and elections.
Right now, emphasis is on preventing infection from entering the country, and dealing with isolated cases. Same as it was with Ebola, for example. And looks like things are working so far (knocking the wood)


How about emergency plans for when it strikes a government facility, and operations are forced to be curtailed? How about planning out the frequent cleaning and disinfection of potential fomites so that it it is introduced to a facility its transmission recognized in time to spare at least some of the occupants of that facility? How about giving hand sanitizer to those who aren't near a sink to wash their hands in? There are not even basic prevention plans in place currently. It appears private industry is doing a better job preparing than government agencies that are still waiting for this silence to be broken.

Also, Ebola doesn't spread easily. It's spread in Africa is amplified by some cultural traditions that we do not engage in and other factors that aren't a problem here. It was never a serious threat to us. It's just a terrible thing in Africa that is still killing our fellow humans, it's pretty limited in geographic spread. It shouldn't be ignored but we have no reason to be afraid.

A respiratory pathogen will always be a threat to the whole world, including wealthy countries. It is far more threatening to us.

Oh, so this is about a bottle of sanitizer you want for free..
If infection rate comes to the point those steps are relevant, expect much more harsh steps to be taken. Like, you know, quarantine for your city as Wuhan endures.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2370
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:04 am

kalvado wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
kalvado wrote:
I doubt there is anything new what wasn't thought of decades ago. Quarantine, isolation, triage. Lookup more on conspiracy theory sites, e.g. about coffin stockpile in Atlanta.
If any of such plans get public, there will be major outcry from political opponents about fear mongering, human rights and a bunch of comments how this is only done to mess with oncoming nomination and elections.
Right now, emphasis is on preventing infection from entering the country, and dealing with isolated cases. Same as it was with Ebola, for example. And looks like things are working so far (knocking the wood)


How about emergency plans for when it strikes a government facility, and operations are forced to be curtailed? How about planning out the frequent cleaning and disinfection of potential fomites so that it it is introduced to a facility its transmission recognized in time to spare at least some of the occupants of that facility? How about giving hand sanitizer to those who aren't near a sink to wash their hands in? There are not even basic prevention plans in place currently. It appears private industry is doing a better job preparing than government agencies that are still waiting for this silence to be broken.

Also, Ebola doesn't spread easily. It's spread in Africa is amplified by some cultural traditions that we do not engage in and other factors that aren't a problem here. It was never a serious threat to us. It's just a terrible thing in Africa that is still killing our fellow humans, it's pretty limited in geographic spread. It shouldn't be ignored but we have no reason to be afraid.

A respiratory pathogen will always be a threat to the whole world, including wealthy countries. It is far more threatening to us.

Oh, so this is about a bottle of sanitizer you want for free..
If infection rate comes to the point those steps are relevant, expect much more harsh steps to be taken. Like, you know, quarantine for your city as Wuhan endures.


You're missing the context. IT WILL DISABLE OUR MILITARY LEAVING US VULNERABLE. Use your brain.


And no, it's about other people. I have sanitizer, it's .99 cents at walmart. There's a lot of people with no access to sinks without a 5-10 minute walk. You know they don't wash their hands when they cough into them or pick their noses or scratch their asses. Make it easy for them to not make others sick.
情報
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2370
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:42 am

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-51427216
(In chinese)

https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story ... 2020-02-09
(English, lol. BBC English isn't reporting this yet?)

Apparently it's been confirmed the coronavirus is also transmitted by aerosols. Guess those surgical masks really won't do much good. Also quarantining people on a cruise ship is probably a bad idea if they're all breathing the same air.

Well. I guess that's bad. And now I'm pretty sure the R0 is higher than 2.2.
情報
 
art
Posts: 3122
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:01 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 4 3,235
Feb 5 3,887
Feb 6 3,694
Feb 7 3,143
Feb 8 3,399
Feb 9 2,656

Change in last 2 days -22%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 4 221,015
Feb 5 252,154
Feb 6 282,813
Feb 7 314,028
Feb 8 345,498
Feb 9 371,904

Change in last 2 days +8%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/09/c_76373.htm
 
art
Posts: 3122
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:28 am

According to the official figures above in less than a week the total number of people identified as having had close contact with infected patients has risen by more than 150,000 while about 20,000 new cases have been confirmed. I heard that the transmission rate was thought to exceed 2 but these figures suggest a transmission rate well below 1. I hope that is the case but I don't believe it is. I think the number of new confirmed cases reported each day is far lower than the actual number of new cases and therefore these figures carry little weight.
 
Scotron12
Posts: 296
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:21 pm

Interesting read that the figures are much higher than is being reported.

https://spectator.us/china-hiding-bad-coronavirus/
 
WIederling
Posts: 9309
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:45 pm

Jouhou wrote:
A controversy happening in China right now is how the donated supplies aren't actually making it to where they are needed most.


I'd wait for some real proof and then look if it is beyond the usual loss rates ( bureaucratic strife is everywhere.).

There apparently are article writers around trying to leverage really anything against China
spreading fake news or plain lies just to make their case.
( Nothing new here. But even more distasteful in this context. Some really don't know when to stop. )

going by movies on the topic on another continent things would by now have devolved to civil war with shooting military involved.
A Wuhan like epicenter would have been bombed to "stop the virus" :-))

I find it difficult to judge the professionalism of Chinese operations. How would forex India handle this?
Here in Germany things obviously are cool, calm and collected. but the operations currently centers around
a small group of potentially infected <200, 10 "hot cases".
Now imagine infections suspects comparable to Wuhan ( % population not absolute numbers ).
We used to be reasonably well prepared during the Cold War era with dedicated Civil Defense Operations.
But a lot of the attached emergency infrastructure has been given up.
Murphy is an optimist
 
maint123
Posts: 306
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 4:18 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:08 pm

maint123 wrote:
Officicial Chinese figures - 89 new deaths, 2,656 new confirmed cases of coronavirus infection were reported in the Chinese mainland. The total infection number soared to 33,738, with 811 deaths as of 24:00 Feb 8."

Yesterday- "86 new deaths, 3,399 new confirmed cases were reported on Feb 7 in the Chinese mainland, said China's National Health Commission. The total infection number soared to 34,546, with 722 deaths as of Feb 7."

Now these figures seem to be absurd . How have the total infected reduced after a day from 34546 to 33788 , after a increase of 2656 ? Unless they are being cured at a rapid pace ?
Seem to be made up numbers ,to suit a narrative.

And the idiot head of WHO is calling for no restrictions on travel between China and other countries. While China has itself isolated whole provinces !

They have corrected the figures -
"89 new deaths, 2,656 new confirmed cases of coronavirus infection were reported in the Chinese mainland. The total infection number soared to 37,198 with 811 deaths as of 24:00 Feb 8."
33788 to 37198 infected.

I feel the Chinese government is maintaining a nice 2 % dead to infected ratio. Cant ever trust their figures.

Some industries outside China are now getting effected by the closure of the Chinese factories. They should be sued but maybe Force majeure will be in force.
 
art
Posts: 3122
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:28 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
Interesting read that the figures are much higher than is being reported.

https://spectator.us/china-hiding-bad-coronavirus/


Even a superficial examination of the official Chinese numbers suggest they are minimizing a problem that seems — so far — to be uncontrollable. If 56 million people are in quarantine with only 723 deaths, the problem is minuscule and the government is seriously overreacting.


The scenario outlined in the Spectator article seems much more plausible than the numbers published by the National Health Commission of the PRC. If the government is suppressing the gathering or release of data to keep numbers down - and/or does not have the resources to properly collect infection data - and in reality this epidemic is out of control, how long could the government continue to cover up what is really happening? I imagine that a point would be reached where the scale of the epidemic would overcome the government's efforts to misrepresent its magnitude.

I guess that point could be reached this month - at least many hundreds of thousands if not millions infected in a number of parts of China. I dread to think of the calamity that may befall the people of China in the coming months.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 3538
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:54 pm

Epidemiologists along with Western intelligence agencies probably can and have come up with reasonable estimates of what has happened in China. But likely they are not telling anyone but top government officials. My guess is that China is doing a poor job in Wuhan, but some of their numbers are roughly correct.

Here in Washington State two quarantine camps have been set up or proposed. Intriguingly news sources seem to say that self isolation is the first preference. Also if I haven't missed it there isn't any in those two camps. I also have not seen any advisory as to how a person would self-isolate in a family home with only one bathroom. Porta Pottie? but who would service it?
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
art
Posts: 3122
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:21 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Here in Washington State two quarantine camps have been set up or proposed. Intriguingly news sources seem to say that self isolation is the first preference. Also if I haven't missed it there isn't any in those two camps. I also have not seen any advisory as to how a person would self-isolate in a family home with only one bathroom.


I don;t see self isolation working. It does not seem practical. Additionally, unless there are sanctions for failing to self isolate some people will not be responsible enough to do it.
 
Scotron12
Posts: 296
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:42 pm

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871783

I cannot say if the veracity of these reports are true or not. But I certainly do not believe the numbers stated by the Chinese or WHO.

Striking to me is the official advice of WHO, which ALL governments choose to ignore.

I guess will take a while to find the truth...if ever!
 
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casinterest
Posts: 9947
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:48 pm

Someone is keeping a good chart of this .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The interesting thing is that on the logarithmic scale, the disease is not currently rapidly expanding. It is being contained.
Time will tell going forward whether the estimates are off , or if the disease is being held in check.
Where ever you go, there you are.

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