art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:23 am

Regarding the test kits used, there are reports suggesting inconsistent results - someone is tested and the result is negative but on re-testing the result is positive. I wonder how many false negatives are leading to people with the infection assuming they are not at risk of infecting others, behaving accordingly and spreading the virus to others.

Another query is that the the transmission rate is estimated to be at least 2.0. With about 500,000 having been in close contact with infected people, the number of infected people (about 60,000) seems far too low. That would suggest each infected person is passing the virus onto far less than 1 other person with whom they have been in close contact. The numbers - transmission rate, cases of infection and close contacts don't seem to hang together.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:29 am

art wrote:
Regarding the test kits used, there are reports suggesting inconsistent results - someone is tested and the result is negative but on re-testing the result is positive. I wonder how many false negatives are leading to people with the infection assuming they are not at risk of infecting others, behaving accordingly and spreading the virus to others.

Another query is that the the transmission rate is estimated to be at least 2.0. With about 500,000 having been in close contact with infected people, the number of infected people (about 60,000) seems far too low. That would suggest each infected person is passing the virus onto far less than 1 other person with whom they have been in close contact. The numbers - transmission rate, cases of infection and close contacts don't seem to hang together.


CDC says one of the reagents is performing inconsistently. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/glitch-delays-covid-19-tests-states-first-evacuees-cleared

I don't know about China's test kits.
情報
 
smolt
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:38 am

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=2020 ... abema-soci

Tokyo found two more cases in relation with the taxi driver still confirmed positive.
One is his coworker belonging to the same labor union, the other is a handling stuff of Japanese party house boat (Yakata-bune boat) upon sea shore. The labor union held a party on the boat. Two taxi drivers participated in the boat party where the newly found person as positive was working as a staff. Besides, soon after the party several paticipants had fever bu recovered. And that the boat was previously had hired by travellers from China.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:48 am

smolt wrote:
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200214-00010015-abema-soci

Tokyo found two more cases in relation with the taxi driver still confirmed positive.
One is his coworker belonging to the same labor union, the other is a handling stuff of Japanese party house boat (Yakata-bune boat) upon sea shore. The labor union held a party on the boat. Two taxi drivers participated in the boat party where the newly found person as positive was working as a staff. Besides, soon after the party several paticipants had fever bu recovered. And that the boat was previously had hired by travellers from China.


I'm seriously wondering if the plumbing system for a boat's bathroom facilities might be causing infections. They work differently than a regular toilet. I haven't been on a cruise ship, do those work like toilets or a standard head?
情報
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:51 am

1,716 health care workers sick:

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2080MA

Mostly in Hubai. My heart goes out to them

Lightsaber
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kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:17 pm

art wrote:
Regarding the test kits used, there are reports suggesting inconsistent results - someone is tested and the result is negative but on re-testing the result is positive. I wonder how many false negatives are leading to people with the infection assuming they are not at risk of infecting others, behaving accordingly and spreading the virus to others.


Looks like there are no false positives or negatives, tests were inconclusive. So the answer is "none"
 
WIederling
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:31 pm

kalvado wrote:
art wrote:
Regarding the test kits used, there are reports suggesting inconsistent results - someone is tested and the result is negative but on re-testing the result is positive. I wonder how many false negatives are leading to people with the infection assuming they are not at risk of infecting others, behaving accordingly and spreading the virus to others.


Looks like there are no false positives or negatives, tests were inconclusive. So the answer is "none"

So it is false "inconclusive" :-)
This cuts into the numbers of reported infections. understating or overstating dependent on how you judge "inconclusive".
( do you test for "clean" or "infected")
Murphy is an optimist
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:43 pm

kalvado wrote:
art wrote:
Regarding the test kits used, there are reports suggesting inconsistent results - someone is tested and the result is negative but on re-testing the result is positive. I wonder how many false negatives are leading to people with the infection assuming they are not at risk of infecting others, behaving accordingly and spreading the virus to others.


Looks like there are no false positives or negatives, tests were inconclusive. So the answer is "none"


I accept your clarification. Thanks.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:57 pm

Unfortunately, Japan is now dealing with a full outbreak.
Cases popping up all over the map from Okinawa to Hokkaido.
Unprofessional health workers are letting infected persons go home without testing, getting infected and passing the infections to colleagues and other patients.
The first line of defense has failed.
Reports now that an infected individual has been commuting by train into Tokyo.
There's no stopping it now.

Singapore isn't looking good.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:32 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Unfortunately, Japan is now dealing with a full outbreak.
Cases popping up all over the map from Okinawa to Hokkaido.
Unprofessional health workers are letting infected persons go home without testing, getting infected and passing the infections to colleagues and other patients.
The first line of defense has failed.
Reports now that an infected individual has been commuting by train into Tokyo.
There's no stopping it now.

Singapore isn't looking good.


The thing I just don't understand about Japan is that they're literally still letting Chinese tourists coming in and out (Unless they're from Hubei and Zhejiang). Yes, the number of Chinese tourists had reduced by a LOT, but they should have put a blanket ban on that long time ago.

Japan is now seeing more and more cases where people are getting infected without ever leaving the country.

The only good thing is that the nCoV is not as deadly as something like SARS, but it can still make people really sick. However, Japan is also an extremely aging society, or, in another word, tons of old people that are VERY vulnerable.

As for Singapore - it's getting as bad as Hong Kong. And this is with Singapore taking measures to control the spread a lot earlier than Hong Kong. Much like HK, though, S'pore has the same problem - it's simply very dense and small in size. The panic buying that I've seen in Hong Kong is also seen in Singapore. And this is with S'pore having strict control of news media (It's a semi-authoritarian state...).
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:57 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Unfortunately, Japan is now dealing with a full outbreak.
Cases popping up all over the map from Okinawa to Hokkaido.
Unprofessional health workers are letting infected persons go home without testing, getting infected and passing the infections to colleagues and other patients.
The first line of defense has failed.
Reports now that an infected individual has been commuting by train into Tokyo.
There's no stopping it now.

Singapore isn't looking good.


The thing I just don't understand about Japan is that they're literally still letting Chinese tourists coming in and out (Unless they're from Hubei and Zhejiang). Yes, the number of Chinese tourists had reduced by a LOT, but they should have put a blanket ban on that long time ago.

Japan is now seeing more and more cases where people are getting infected without ever leaving the country.

The only good thing is that the nCoV is not as deadly as something like SARS, but it can still make people really sick. However, Japan is also an extremely aging society, or, in another word, tons of old people that are VERY vulnerable.

As for Singapore - it's getting as bad as Hong Kong. And this is with Singapore taking measures to control the spread a lot earlier than Hong Kong. Much like HK, though, S'pore has the same problem - it's simply very dense and small in size. The panic buying that I've seen in Hong Kong is also seen in Singapore. And this is with S'pore having strict control of news media (It's a semi-authoritarian state...).

Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and probably South Korea and Malaysia are in full outbreak, in my opinion.

https://coronavirus.app/toll

This is such a slow disease that by the time it is reacted to, it is too late.

The report I linked above notes the initial level of Wuhan quarantine still gad a high Ro.


Lightsaber
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zakuivcustom
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:35 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and probably South Korea and Malaysia are in full outbreak, in my opinion.


Singapore technically is still clusters of cases. The only problem is that the raw number of cluster had been increasing. I also didn't even realized that they're up to 67 confirmed cases now, as they were in a "neck and neck race" with Hong Kong for many days (Not a race you want to be in...).

South Korea and Malaysia so far is not quite "full outbreak", although, with the long incubation period, we may not know until end of this month.

Hubei in general, of course, is a nightmare. There will never be enough resources there with the high Ro.
 
yonahleung
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:28 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and probably South Korea and Malaysia are in full outbreak, in my opinion.


Singapore technically is still clusters of cases. The only problem is that the raw number of cluster had been increasing. I also didn't even realized that they're up to 67 confirmed cases now, as they were in a "neck and neck race" with Hong Kong for many days (Not a race you want to be in...).

South Korea and Malaysia so far is not quite "full outbreak", although, with the long incubation period, we may not know until end of this month.

Hubei in general, of course, is a nightmare. There will never be enough resources there with the high Ro.

Those of us in Hong Kong are saying that we have finally been surpassed and left behind by Singapore now (as Singapore has wanted to achieve for years, targeting our status as the Asian Financial Centre). Technically it is still clusters of cases in Singapore with vaguely traceable origins but remember that we are always some 14 days behind the transmission chain and apparently when compared to fully masked up Hong Kong (I personally wear an eye mask and a surgical mask when I get out), Singapore is still fairly relaxed and people are not wearing masks generally.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:01 pm

Regarding the reports of the virus being more harmful for east Asian people, I don't know if there's any validity in that, or if it's because of a higher degree of smokers like Lightsaber pointed out.

However, we have to be crystal clear about one thing. And that is honesty. If there are differences in how people react to the virus based on their ethnicity, that is a very vital piece of information in the fight against the spread of the virus. It's not racist to point something like that out. In a situation like this, where we might be looking at a pandemic virus, we need all the info we can get.

There are illnesses that are more common in some ethnic groups that are nearly not present in others. Like MS is very common among people of Scandinavian background. It's not common in people of African descent.

At the same time - if it is true that the virus affects east Asian people more - it's wise not to spread panic about that. A situation where Europeans become extremely sceptical towards any east Asians they meet is not a good thing either.

But don't self-censor yourselves if you have vital information.

Just my 2 cents.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:23 pm

Weird that Indonesia has denied any infections and not a peep from North Korea!

I would think N. Korea would have quite a few cases.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:35 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
Weird that Indonesia has denied any infections and not a peep from North Korea!

I would think N. Korea would have quite a few cases.


Only thing we'll hear from them is how they saved the world from it (in one of those leaked videos we get to see sometimes)
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:37 pm

JetBuddy wrote:
Regarding the reports of the virus being more harmful for east Asian people, I don't know if there's any validity in that, or if it's because of a higher degree of smokers like Lightsaber pointed out.

However, we have to be crystal clear about one thing. And that is honesty. If there are differences in how people react to the virus based on their ethnicity, that is a very vital piece of information in the fight against the spread of the virus. It's not racist to point something like that out. In a situation like this, where we might be looking at a pandemic virus, we need all the info we can get.

There are illnesses that are more common in some ethnic groups that are nearly not present in others. Like MS is very common among people of Scandinavian background. It's not common in people of African descent.

At the same time - if it is true that the virus affects east Asian people more - it's wise not to spread panic about that. A situation where Europeans become extremely sceptical towards any east Asians they meet is not a good thing either.

But don't self-censor yourselves if you have vital information.

Just my 2 cents.



People of African descent actually do have genetic adaptations for malaria resistance. But you would think Asians would have increased resistance if anything to a virus that has similarities to the viruses circulating in many of their local animals. I find it doubtful there's an ethnic difference. It's likely though the insane pollution in China has caused more hypertension and other cardiovascular and pulmonary issues that could create added risk. Also if it's spread by feces, it would be good to recognize that not all of china has clean water (most of China really, it has to be boiled everywhere) and not everyone has improved sanitation. Also I can imagine squatty potties are worse than western toilets for creating poo aerosols. Western toilets cup the poo in a bowl. Squatty potties are more like poo on a plate. (And poopy paper in a basket I believe, I never brought to use a squatty potty, but they're intimidating, and I seem to recall TP not going in there but an open basket instead.)
Last edited by Jouhou on Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
情報
 
smolt
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:42 pm

Jouhou wrote:
smolt wrote:
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200214-00010015-abema-soci

Tokyo found two more cases in relation with the taxi driver still confirmed positive.
One is his coworker belonging to the same labor union, the other is a handling stuff of Japanese party house boat (Yakata-bune boat) upon sea shore. The labor union held a party on the boat. Two taxi drivers participated in the boat party where the newly found person as positive was working as a staff. Besides, soon after the party several paticipants had fever bu recovered. And that the boat was previously had hired by travellers from China.


I'm seriously wondering if the plumbing system for a boat's bathroom facilities might be causing infections. They work differently than a regular toilet. I haven't been on a cruise ship, do those work like toilets or a standard head?


The bathroom facility upon the house-boat is very simple and tiny one. They just put a tank under the toilet to store filth. After passengers get off, they discharge it into other large tank equwipped in the waterfront. Then a track come to collect, then carry it to the huge waste processing facility.
They used to discharge filth unprocessed to water untill ten years ago.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:47 pm

smolt wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
smolt wrote:
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20200214-00010015-abema-soci

Tokyo found two more cases in relation with the taxi driver still confirmed positive.
One is his coworker belonging to the same labor union, the other is a handling stuff of Japanese party house boat (Yakata-bune boat) upon sea shore. The labor union held a party on the boat. Two taxi drivers participated in the boat party where the newly found person as positive was working as a staff. Besides, soon after the party several paticipants had fever bu recovered. And that the boat was previously had hired by travellers from China.


I'm seriously wondering if the plumbing system for a boat's bathroom facilities might be causing infections. They work differently than a regular toilet. I haven't been on a cruise ship, do those work like toilets or a standard head?


The bathroom facility upon the house-boat is very simple and tiny one. They just put a tank under the toilet to store filth. After passengers get off, they discharge it into other large tank equwipped in the waterfront. Then a track come to collect, then carry it to the huge waste processing facility.
They used to discharge filth unprocessed to water untill ten years ago.


Are they connected to each other, and do they have very little standing water like many boats? From my recollection of using a head there's potential for aerosols to be generated by flushing and a series of valves that can become contaminated and release contaminants elsewhere especially if they're interconnected.


Edit:
Oh, that's the houseboat, so probably very similar to what I'm familiar with, but not so much risk to other plumbing becoming contaminated.
情報
 
smolt
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:53 pm

Regarding susceptibilty depending on personal ethnicity, reportedly 40 people out of
400 US nationals upon the Diamond Princess have been tested positive. Nothing is known about their blood background, but the result may see the relevance.
 
smolt
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:04 pm

Jouhou, this may help

https://japan-magazine.jnto.go.jp/en/1407_boat.html

Sad thing, but that may be very easy circumstance for virus to spread.
 
smolt
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:26 pm

The day 15 Japan Time saw those postive cases.

Hokkaido - man in 50s critical, staying in ICU for serious pneumonic

Kanagawa - man in 30s. the ambulance member who carried positive passenger out of the Diamond Princess to the hospital on day 10th. The time he was in charge was fourty minutes.

Nagoya, Aichi - man in 60s. Travelled to Hawaii from the end of last month to 7 this month. No contact with China.

Okinawa - woman in 60s. The taxi driver who gave a ride to the passenger of the Diamond Princess while the ship was touching at Okinawa.
 
kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:32 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Weird that Indonesia has denied any infections and not a peep from North Korea!

I would think N. Korea would have quite a few cases.


Only thing we'll hear from them is how they saved the world from it (in one of those leaked videos we get to see sometimes)

I don't know much about NK healthcare, but I really doubt it is a good system capable of providing healthcare to high %% of population.
They have strict discipline - that may help with quarantine, but weak economy - that may hinder long isolation. General population health may be problematic as well.
My personal suspicion is that if virus gets into NK despite border isolation (which may keep infection away), it will be the end - of regime at best, of entire country at worst.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:49 pm

kalvado wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Weird that Indonesia has denied any infections and not a peep from North Korea!

I would think N. Korea would have quite a few cases.


Only thing we'll hear from them is how they saved the world from it (in one of those leaked videos we get to see sometimes)

I don't know much about NK healthcare, but I really doubt it is a good system capable of providing healthcare to high %% of population.
They have strict discipline - that may help with quarantine, but weak economy - that may hinder long isolation. General population health may be problematic as well.
My personal suspicion is that if virus gets into NK despite border isolation (which may keep infection away), it will be the end - of regime at best, of entire country at worst.


One thing we know about Stalinist regimes (and NK is a version of one) is that they are good at mobilization and enforcement. If they do get enough masks for general population, and more sophisticated protection equipment for medical personnel -- they can get through an outbreak. Economy would suffer, but not desperately, as for less sophisticated tasks in the general economy, part of the armed forces could be temporarily diverted. It's not like NK is exactly on the brink of being invaded; and probably even less so during a dangerous epidemic. Some troops can be reassigned to perform civilian tasks, out of 1.3 million (out of 25 million population)...
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kalvado
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:53 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
kalvado wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

Only thing we'll hear from them is how they saved the world from it (in one of those leaked videos we get to see sometimes)

I don't know much about NK healthcare, but I really doubt it is a good system capable of providing healthcare to high %% of population.
They have strict discipline - that may help with quarantine, but weak economy - that may hinder long isolation. General population health may be problematic as well.
My personal suspicion is that if virus gets into NK despite border isolation (which may keep infection away), it will be the end - of regime at best, of entire country at worst.


One thing we know about Stalinist regimes (and NK is a version of one) is that they are good at mobilization and enforcement. If they do get enough masks for general population, and more sophisticated protection equipment for medical personnel -- they can get through an outbreak. Economy would suffer, but not desperately, as for less sophisticated tasks in the general economy, part of the armed forces could be temporarily diverted. It's not like NK is exactly on the brink of being invaded; and probably even less so during a dangerous epidemic. Some troops can be reassigned to perform civilian tasks, out of 1.3 million (out of 25 million population)...

Reasonably effective masks can be improvised out of regular household stuff, after all.
 
rjbesikof
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:32 am

How long do you think this will last?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:28 am

CDC head doctor told CNN today he thinks there may be challenges ahead for the next 10 months or more, and that this may eventually be another annual/seasonal respiratory concern requiring tracking alongside influenza.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
smolt
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:26 am

I myself got a follow-up information on the Wall Street Journal in regard to US sulvaging their nationals left upon the Diamond Princess.

That says US is preparing to charter two aircraft. CDC team members are checking health condition of the people. They will not allow those who have symptoms of coughing and/or fever on board the charter aircraft. They are to reach US airbase at California and to be quarantined for two weeks.
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:40 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183

Change in last 2 days +4%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/15/c_76583.htm
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:48 am

rjbesikof wrote:
How long do you think this will last?


Until a vaccine is developed, manufactured on a large scale and distributed throughout the world.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:36 am

rjbesikof wrote:
How long do you think this will last?



I think it was the WHO that put out 18 months as an estimate for a vaccine arriving. Plan on it lasting longer than that though, for vaccinating the planet but also hiccups in vaccine testing. Coronaviruses, with the similar SARS virus included, tend to have issues with antibody dependent enhancement. They need to test vaccines carefully because of this (and not skip any steps in clinical trials), or we will have some problems similar to the dengvaxia controversy (where the vaccine is only safe and effective if you've already been infected with one dengue serotype previously).

It might take a while. Might be a good year(or two, or three) to pick up some time consuming solo nerd hobby like playing online games...
情報
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:10 am

Putting it in perspective, despite the fact I do not believe the official numbers, but for discussion sake:
https://www.worldometers.info/

People killed this year (at time of writing):
Deaths (total) this year, 7,271,539

Cancer Deaths: 1,015,314
Smoking deaths: 617,995
Alcohol deaths: 309,191
AIDS deaths: 207,820
Road accident deaths: 166, 900
Suicides 132,568
Malaria deaths: 121,274
Flu deaths: 60,026
Coronavirus deaths: 1,527

Note, I believe the Coronavirus stats are so bad flu has been exceeded. Even then, the issue is how many people are hospitalized (system breaks down). I also believe panic will be a huge factor.

Jouhou wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
How long do you think this will last?



I think it was the WHO that put out 18 months as an estimate for a vaccine arriving. Plan on it lasting longer than that though, for vaccinating the planet but also hiccups in vaccine testing. Coronaviruses, with the similar SARS virus included, tend to have issues with antibody dependent enhancement. They need to test vaccines carefully because of this (and not skip any steps in clinical trials), or we will have some problems similar to the dengvaxia controversy (where the vaccine is only safe and effective if you've already been infected with one dengue serotype previously).

It might take a while. Might be a good year(or two, or three) to pick up some time consuming solo nerd hobby like playing online games...

Vaccines are hard. Companies trying for a stock pop are broadcasting information that is far too premature. It takes time before they have a vaccine and then after developing,and testing it, some vaccines are slow to manufacture. It could be 24 months before enough people are vaccinated to matter. We need an un-vaccinated fraction of the population below 1/(1+Ro) to stop the disease.

Lightsaber
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:37 pm

Japan can no longer avert an outbreak at this point unless they shut it down right away.
Too many clusters, too many potential infections and several loose connections already.

The Japanese health minister said that the infection routes are starting to become fuzzy, difficult to track and that they will be holding internal discussions about further measures following this phase transition. (NHK reporting).
One guy from Chiba commuted to/from Tokyo on packed trains. Good luck tracking that...
One guy travelled to Nagoya by Shinkansen.

Time for Japan to stop kidding itself. Everybody on lock down for 3 weeks or they can forget their Olympics, let alone the huge damage to the economy.

In any case, I see Trump extending the travel ban to include Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong very soon.

I took a bus through San Francisco's Chinatown yesterday and also took the Mrs to a night club. While the chances of infection are low almost 2 weeks into the travel ban, I can't say I was comfortable, the place is packed with Chinese and nobody is wearing masks. So many Chinese here that it's unbelievable that they don't have a case yet.
Perhaps the US is running their own censorship?
 
1989worstyear
Posts: 829
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:53 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:20 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:

I took a bus through San Francisco's Chinatown yesterday and also took the Mrs to a night club. While the chances of infection are low almost 2 weeks into the travel ban, I can't say I was comfortable, the place is packed with Chinese and nobody is wearing masks. So many Chinese here that it's unbelievable that they don't have a case yet.
Perhaps the US is running their own censorship?


I can see not wanting to travel, but I'm sorry, freaking out over seeing Asian-looking people without facemasks just reeks of media industry hysteria to me, and I say this just having caught a bad cold from co-workers.

Also, the more common masks they hand out at the doctor's office apparently are not effective at preventing contraction of airborne viruses.
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:42 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Japan can no longer avert an outbreak at this point unless they shut it down right away.
Too many clusters, too many potential infections and several loose connections already.

The Japanese health minister said that the infection routes are starting to become fuzzy, difficult to track and that they will be holding internal discussions about further measures following this phase transition. (NHK reporting).
One guy from Chiba commuted to/from Tokyo on packed trains. Good luck tracking that...
One guy travelled to Nagoya by Shinkansen.

Time for Japan to stop kidding itself. Everybody on lock down for 3 weeks or they can forget their Olympics, let alone the huge damage to the economy.

In any case, I see Trump extending the travel ban to include Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong very soon.

I took a bus through San Francisco's Chinatown yesterday and also took the Mrs to a night club. While the chances of infection are low almost 2 weeks into the travel ban, I can't say I was comfortable, the place is packed with Chinese and nobody is wearing masks. So many Chinese here that it's unbelievable that they don't have a case yet.
Perhaps the US is running their own censorship?

US sensor? How?!? My sister and many relatives are doctors. I've seen my sister on doctor only discussion groups posting "We suddenly have X number influenza A and Y Influenza B with Z doctors and nurses out." In a heartbeat the spouses would Facebook concerns. I you try to silence Americans, they get louder.

It is more the facemask shortage. Save them until you feel ill to protect others.

Why would you be uncomfortable? And wearing a mask in a club? The point of a club is to be seen!

I worry about panic.

I also worry about the real numbers as if true, one wouldn't lock down 500 million people and guaranteed send the economy into recession.

Rail and bus will be an issue, but the best solution is a global 2-week shutdown. Stopping re-transmission (outside of hospitals and a few critical industries such as water, power, gas, elder care, food distribution, and some oil).

This isn't an an Asia issue. For if this gets into the huge homeless camps in the USA (in my area and yours), this won't end. If it gets into Soweto township, it won't end. God help is if it gets into a Favella.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
Scotron12
Posts: 297
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:38 pm

 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2403
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:20 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Japan can no longer avert an outbreak at this point unless they shut it down right away.
Too many clusters, too many potential infections and several loose connections already.

The Japanese health minister said that the infection routes are starting to become fuzzy, difficult to track and that they will be holding internal discussions about further measures following this phase transition. (NHK reporting).
One guy from Chiba commuted to/from Tokyo on packed trains. Good luck tracking that...
One guy travelled to Nagoya by Shinkansen.

Time for Japan to stop kidding itself. Everybody on lock down for 3 weeks or they can forget their Olympics, let alone the huge damage to the economy.

In any case, I see Trump extending the travel ban to include Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong very soon.

I took a bus through San Francisco's Chinatown yesterday and also took the Mrs to a night club. While the chances of infection are low almost 2 weeks into the travel ban, I can't say I was comfortable, the place is packed with Chinese and nobody is wearing masks. So many Chinese here that it's unbelievable that they don't have a case yet.
Perhaps the US is running their own censorship?

US sensor? How?!? My sister and many relatives are doctors. I've seen my sister on doctor only discussion groups posting "We suddenly have X number influenza A and Y Influenza B with Z doctors and nurses out." In a heartbeat the spouses would Facebook concerns. I you try to silence Americans, they get louder.

It is more the facemask shortage. Save them until you feel ill to protect others.

Why would you be uncomfortable? And wearing a mask in a club? The point of a club is to be seen!

I worry about panic.

I also worry about the real numbers as if true, one wouldn't lock down 500 million people and guaranteed send the economy into recession.

Rail and bus will be an issue, but the best solution is a global 2-week shutdown. Stopping re-transmission (outside of hospitals and a few critical industries such as water, power, gas, elder care, food distribution, and some oil).

This isn't an an Asia issue. For if this gets into the huge homeless camps in the USA (in my area and yours), this won't end. If it gets into Soweto township, it won't end. God help is if it gets into a Favella.

Lightsaber



Yeah, the biggest concern with "panic" is people thinking they can contract the disease by exposure to any asian. And I've noticed over the years a lot of Americans really don't understand the difference between different east asian groups (watched a Korean movie with a guy, he kept calling it "Chinese" despite the obvious Korean writing in the background. Heard a group of people talking about their new favorite "chinese" restaurant, it's a Japanese restaurant. It's common for all east Asians to be referred to as "chinese" just like how no one differentiates between Mexicans, Guatemalans, Hondurans, Salvadorans, etc. They're all "mexicans".)

Let's not freak out every time we see an asian person please. Especially where sanitation is just simply better here than China so even the actual Chinese immigrants will be cleaner than people in the PRC simply because our tap water is cleaner.

Also there's no masks to buy so no one should expect anyone to be wearing a mask right now. They're just unavailable and if you wear them into a pharmacy or a bank they might think they're being robbed and call the police anyways.
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frmrCapCadet
Posts: 3550
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:47 pm

We are at least 10 weeks into this epidemic, and thousands of people have traveled from the center of infection to all parts of the world. There remains one serious center and two or three other but thus far minor foci of infections. Plus that cruise ship. Except for Wuhan and the cruise ship case, where likely incompetence has triumphed, standard public health steps have done their job. The rest of the world is not home free, and public health needs to be on guard. But so far no world wide epidemic.

Lessons from this: China needs to control preferably stop the sale of bush game/wild mammal meat. We need several dozen sites a few thousand dormitory/motel spots each, and located throughout the world where people from disasters or needing isolation/quarantine can be located in relative comfort. Seattle is a cruise ship center/international air facility. We should have a dozen facilities, each with a hundred or so rooms (some suites for families). And epidemiology resources need to be built up, not dismantled (hint - White House).
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NIKV69
Posts: 13078
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:27 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:09 pm

This is unreal why are we bringing them back to the US? Quarantine them somewhere else and make sure they don't have virus before they are allowed back in the US.

https://twitter.com/ABC7NY/status/12287 ... 34497?s=20
Nikon from day one, Nikon till I die.
 
WIederling
Posts: 9307
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:19 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

I took a bus through San Francisco's Chinatown yesterday and also took the Mrs to a night club. While the chances of infection are low almost 2 weeks into the travel ban, I can't say I was comfortable, the place is packed with Chinese and nobody is wearing masks. So many Chinese here that it's unbelievable that they don't have a case yet.
Perhaps the US is running their own censorship?


I can see not wanting to travel, but I'm sorry, freaking out over seeing Asian-looking people without facemasks just reeks of media industry hysteria to me, and I say this just having caught a bad cold from co-workers.

Also, the more common masks they hand out at the doctor's office apparently are not effective at preventing contraction of airborne viruses.


Best in style behavior:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51506732
"Fake flyers telling diners to avoid Asian-American restaurants because of the coronavirus are among a spate of recent racist incidents linked to the outbreak, say California authorities."

racist to the bone or is there any other explanation around?
Murphy is an optimist
 
NIKV69
Posts: 13078
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2004 4:27 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:41 pm

WIederling wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

I took a bus through San Francisco's Chinatown yesterday and also took the Mrs to a night club. While the chances of infection are low almost 2 weeks into the travel ban, I can't say I was comfortable, the place is packed with Chinese and nobody is wearing masks. So many Chinese here that it's unbelievable that they don't have a case yet.
Perhaps the US is running their own censorship?


I can see not wanting to travel, but I'm sorry, freaking out over seeing Asian-looking people without facemasks just reeks of media industry hysteria to me, and I say this just having caught a bad cold from co-workers.

Also, the more common masks they hand out at the doctor's office apparently are not effective at preventing contraction of airborne viruses.


Best in style behavior:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51506732
"Fake flyers telling diners to avoid Asian-American restaurants because of the coronavirus are among a spate of recent racist incidents linked to the outbreak, say California authorities."

racist to the bone or is there any other explanation around?


Didn't take long for the racist dog whistles to come out did it? Firstly the masks do nothing it doesn't stop a person that doesn't have it from catching it.

I was in LA when this first broke and it has a big Chinese population. I am sure many are from China and travel back and forth constantly so the risk increases whether it's slightly or more who knows but you run a risk that if someone from Wuhan went to Beijing and then to LA. They have been exposed to the virus.

Overreacting to this is not racist. China has failed in how they have handled this and I don't think it's wrong to be proactive.
Nikon from day one, Nikon till I die.
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6158
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:33 pm

Jouhou wrote:
It's not bad if it spread as slowly as ebola. That's the same ballpark case fatality rate of the Spanish flu though,

Didn't ebola spread so slowly mainly because Congo is so badly underdeveloped that a country 20% larger than Mexico has roads only 3000 km long in total? In this case very low mobility of the population has been helpful to limit the spread of the disease.
 
bcworld
Posts: 139
Joined: Thu May 19, 2011 1:28 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:45 am

NIKV69 wrote:
This is unreal why are we bringing them back to the US? Quarantine them somewhere else

So which country do you think you be responsible for quarantining US citizens?
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 10615
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:58 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Japan can no longer avert an outbreak at this point unless they shut it down right away.
Too many clusters, too many potential infections and several loose connections already.

The Japanese health minister said that the infection routes are starting to become fuzzy, difficult to track and that they will be holding internal discussions about further measures following this phase transition. (NHK reporting).
One guy from Chiba commuted to/from Tokyo on packed trains. Good luck tracking that...
One guy travelled to Nagoya by Shinkansen.

Time for Japan to stop kidding itself. Everybody on lock down for 3 weeks or they can forget their Olympics, let alone the huge damage to the economy.

In any case, I see Trump extending the travel ban to include Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong very soon.

I took a bus through San Francisco's Chinatown yesterday and also took the Mrs to a night club. While the chances of infection are low almost 2 weeks into the travel ban, I can't say I was comfortable, the place is packed with Chinese and nobody is wearing masks. So many Chinese here that it's unbelievable that they don't have a case yet.
Perhaps the US is running their own censorship?


Japan does not have the capability to institute a lockdown - the government is inept, lacks the legal authority and means to restrict people’s movements and will DEFINITELY not take actions that will impinge on business performance. There was no ban on Chinese tourists because of loud complaints from the hotel industry.

I have some friends who say their companies are encouraging people to work remotely from home if able, but even that is an uphill climb since a lot of Japanese organizations are not equipped for that.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1829
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:47 am

This will be the biggest event of my lifetime.

I feel lucky that I live in Australia. Our politicians give in to fear and protests so easily.

Australia will ban additional countries regardless of economic impact. Our elections are mainly fought over environment and immigration policies. Just two days ago the prime minister was telling Australians to go on local holidays to support our industry.

But like Japan it will be very hard to force a lockdown if the virus does spread.

The virus will hit nursing homes very hard. The majority of staff are unskilled and low paid. This industry often get gastro outbreaks similar to cruise ships.

I have started basic zero cost prep. Stock up on the regular items you buy that will eventually get used.

I actually think China has done an amazing job containing this. If you do the research of the timeline they moved extreme quick and the lockdown was crazy.
 
meecrob
Posts: 124
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:05 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I can't say I was comfortable, the place is packed with Chinese and nobody is wearing masks. So many Chinese here that it's unbelievable that they don't have a case yet.
Perhaps the US is running their own censorship?


OMG this is priceless! Its like he thinks every Chinese person has a random chance of becoming infected.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3171
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:07 am

NIKV69 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:

I can see not wanting to travel, but I'm sorry, freaking out over seeing Asian-looking people without facemasks just reeks of media industry hysteria to me, and I say this just having caught a bad cold from co-workers.

Also, the more common masks they hand out at the doctor's office apparently are not effective at preventing contraction of airborne viruses.


Best in style behavior:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51506732
"Fake flyers telling diners to avoid Asian-American restaurants because of the coronavirus are among a spate of recent racist incidents linked to the outbreak, say California authorities."

racist to the bone or is there any other explanation around?


Didn't take long for the racist dog whistles to come out did it? Firstly the masks do nothing it doesn't stop a person that doesn't have it from catching it.

I was in LA when this first broke and it has a big Chinese population. I am sure many are from China and travel back and forth constantly so the risk increases whether it's slightly or more who knows but you run a risk that if someone from Wuhan went to Beijing and then to LA. They have been exposed to the virus.

Overreacting to this is not racist. China has failed in how they have handled this and I don't think it's wrong to be proactive.


IMHO US did the right thing with the travel ban/suspension anyway - or else I can't imagine all the Chinese going back around Lunar New Year and come back to US, only to unfortunately caught the virus and spread it around.

NIKV69 wrote:
This is unreal why are we bringing them back to the US? Quarantine them somewhere else and make sure they don't have virus before they are allowed back in the US.

https://twitter.com/ABC7NY/status/12287 ... 34497?s=20


As other said - where else are you going to take an American citizens?

Also, it is not like the virus spread through miles of air, quarantine centers within US work good enough.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 10615
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:42 am

NIKV69 wrote:
This is unreal why are we bringing them back to the US? Quarantine them somewhere else and make sure they don't have virus before they are allowed back in the US.

https://twitter.com/ABC7NY/status/12287 ... 34497?s=20


It is normal procedure to conduct quarantines at an AFB. They are well-equipped and the military has established training and protocols for these situations.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1829
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:24 am

meecrob wrote:
OMG this is priceless! Its like he thinks every Chinese person has a random chance of becoming infected.

Statisitcally he would be correct though.

A Chinese person who comes back from mainland China is unlikely to go to a bar that is Latino only. They would socialise as they normally would which is highly likely to be with other Chinese friends and family. Any unknown infections would then be spread among Chinese people at a statistically higher rate.

You'd have a greater chance of winning the lottery.
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1199
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:45 am

a couple visiting Hawaii falls ill with coronavirus

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/15/us/a ... e=Homepage

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