DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:45 am

a couple visiting Hawaii falls ill with coronavirus

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/15/us/a ... e=Homepage
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:25 am

RJMAZ wrote:
I have started basic zero cost prep. Stock up on the regular items you buy that will eventually get used.

I actually think China has done an amazing job containing this. If you do the research of the timeline they moved extreme quick and the lockdown was crazy.

I too have started (almost) zero cost prep. Wow have I pre-bought a lot off semi perishable food. My family will eat well.

I noticed the price of rice has gone up locally. I stocked up on some, but not much. If I'm wrong and over-bought, I have a lot of healthy soup lunches and my kids will get many soup dinners. I basically bought everything on sale that was meat and veggies in a can (variety) that I liked. Plus my next 18 months of family meal pasta. I bought separate ingredients for sauces so that by mixing from the spice garden I can have flavor variety.

I know I'm not the only one. A lady was buying 16 cases of Spam, a bunch of dried noodles, rice, but not exactly a balanced diet as I did family shopping. Multiple families were buying much more dried food than normal, in particular rice.

My one cost was preparation for water purification. But one must have water and I know where the localnatural water is (but it needs bacteria/viruses taken care of).

I live in a majority Asian area of Los Angeles, so some concerns I just do not understand. I hang out with Asian co-workers and friends. My kids are half Asian which is very typical locally (about half the kids at my daughter's elementary school).

I disagree on China doing an amazing job. Freedom of speech would have stopped this early, probably in December when it could have been nothing. Instead we have crematoriums running 24/7 and the question is how large a multiple of the official death rate is real. The official infection and death rate just isn't plausible. This will be like SARS where outside experience, (then Hong Kong) gives the truth.

Sadly, my hopes of this being contained are fading. The amount of idle industrial, transportation, and retail I see idle has global implications. Not to mention one nation's movie/arts, restaurant/cafe, and hotel industry is on extended pause.

The global surplus of Chinese tourists suddenly isn't. As an aviation fan, the large fleet of parked aircraft is concerning. The aviation manufacturing side makes profit off of spare parts and if aircraft are not flying, parts are not worn.

So a long winded no on well handled.

Lightsaber
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:39 am

NIKV69 wrote:
WIederling wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:

I can see not wanting to travel, but I'm sorry, freaking out over seeing Asian-looking people without facemasks just reeks of media industry hysteria to me, and I say this just having caught a bad cold from co-workers.

Also, the more common masks they hand out at the doctor's office apparently are not effective at preventing contraction of airborne viruses.


Best in style behavior:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51506732
"Fake flyers telling diners to avoid Asian-American restaurants because of the coronavirus are among a spate of recent racist incidents linked to the outbreak, say California authorities."

racist to the bone or is there any other explanation around?


Didn't take long for the racist dog whistles to come out did it? Firstly the masks do nothing it doesn't stop a person that doesn't have it from catching it.

I was in LA when this first broke and it has a big Chinese population. I am sure many are from China and travel back and forth constantly so the risk increases whether it's slightly or more who knows but you run a risk that if someone from Wuhan went to Beijing and then to LA. They have been exposed to the virus.

Overreacting to this is not racist. China has failed in how they have handled this and I don't think it's wrong to be proactive.


I guess that there is some hysteria, including in some of my actions. I prefer to call it abundance of caution.
We have to be realistic too.
People who have merely been on an infected driver's taxi have been infected.

When I unexpectedly boarded a bus full of Chinese and crossed San Francisco's China town, guided by the Mrs who doesnt seem to share my concerns (but again she is the healing-after-the disaster type, im the preventing type) the question that was going through my mind was what are the odds that several dozens of people have come back from Wuhan before the travel ban, what are the odds that there were infected ones among them with mild symptoms that have infected others in this city and none of them is aware of it yet.
Throw in the fact that the virus is said to survive 8 days outside a host's body.

It's not racism, it's basic math.

I'm pretty sure that I could survive it even if I caught it, my concern is that I would catch it and unknowingly infect the elderly family members, whom would probably not survive a severe pneumonia.

So even if I feel sorry that my wearing masks could offend some people, they are not going to feel sorry for me if I get infected or if we lose elderly members if the family.

The second time we went through China town with the bus, I was wearing a FFP2 mask, which is so effective that I can't even smell it if anyone is smoking within a feet.
I wore the same mask on my flight despite not a single Chinese person being seated in my area.

So I think that it's not ok to shame people who want to protect themselves, even if it's out of an excess of caution. Most people taking such precautions may have their own reasons, such as a pregnant wife or infants at home, people with weak immunity, elderly.
Why take a chance when you don't have to?
In any case for those worried about discriminative displays, at this rate, with the world headed for a pandemic, the ethnic discrimination concern should quickly disappear.

I also am going to be the pessimist and say that I have little doubt that the virus is going to appear in Chinatown area's in LA and SF pretty soon.
It probably is ready there, just hasn't shown its ugly face yet, or as previously suggested, is being censored. Censorship can be accomplished at many levels. For instance, I don't think that it's a coincidence that the US has chosen to quarantine the evacuees at military bases instead of hotels like in Japan.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:17 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
WIederling wrote:

Best in style behavior:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51506732
"Fake flyers telling diners to avoid Asian-American restaurants because of the coronavirus are among a spate of recent racist incidents linked to the outbreak, say California authorities."

racist to the bone or is there any other explanation around?


Didn't take long for the racist dog whistles to come out did it? Firstly the masks do nothing it doesn't stop a person that doesn't have it from catching it.

I was in LA when this first broke and it has a big Chinese population. I am sure many are from China and travel back and forth constantly so the risk increases whether it's slightly or more who knows but you run a risk that if someone from Wuhan went to Beijing and then to LA. They have been exposed to the virus.

Overreacting to this is not racist. China has failed in how they have handled this and I don't think it's wrong to be proactive.


I guess that there is some hysteria, including in some of my actions. I prefer to call it abundance of caution.
We have to be realistic too.
People who have merely been on an infected driver's taxi have been infected.

When I unexpectedly boarded a bus full of Chinese and crossed San Francisco's China town, guided by the Mrs who doesnt seem to share my concerns (but again she is the healing-after-the disaster type, im the preventing type) the question that was going through my mind was what are the odds that several dozens of people have come back from Wuhan before the travel ban, what are the odds that there were infected ones among them with mild symptoms that have infected others in this city and none of them is aware of it yet.
Throw in the fact that the virus is said to survive 8 days outside a host's body.

It's not racism, it's basic math.

I'm pretty sure that I could survive it even if I caught it, my concern is that I would catch it and unknowingly infect the elderly family members, whom would probably not survive a severe pneumonia.

So even if I feel sorry that my wearing masks could offend some people, they are not going to feel sorry for me if I get infected or if we lose elderly members if the family.

The second time we went through China town with the bus, I was wearing a FFP2 mask, which is so effective that I can't even smell it if anyone is smoking within a feet.
I wore the same mask on my flight despite not a single Chinese person being seated in my area.

So I think that it's not ok to shame people who want to protect themselves, even if it's out of an excess of caution. Most people taking such precautions may have their own reasons, such as a pregnant wife or infants at home, people with weak immunity, elderly.
Why take a chance when you don't have to?
In any case for those worried about discriminative displays, at this rate, with the world headed for a pandemic, the ethnic discrimination concern should quickly disappear.

I also am going to be the pessimist and say that I have little doubt that the virus is going to appear in Chinatown area's in LA and SF pretty soon.
It probably is ready there, just hasn't shown its ugly face yet, or as previously suggested, is being censored. Censorship can be accomplished at many levels. For instance, I don't think that it's a coincidence that the US has chosen to quarantine the evacuees at military bases instead of hotels like in Japan.


With current travel restrictions in place and strong scrutiny of travelers from China, it's going to be something like a white business traveler that stopped in Singapore (where there is currently some untraceable community transmission happening) that starts community transmission in the US. Because no one is scrutinizing them.
情報
 
Cerecl
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:36 am

lightsaber wrote:
I disagree on China doing an amazing job. Freedom of speech would have stopped this early, probably in December when it could have been nothing. Instead we have crematoriums running 24/7 and the question is how large a multiple of the official death rate is real. The official infection and death rate just isn't plausible. This will be like SARS where outside experience, (then Hong Kong) gives the truth.
Lightsaber


It is very easy to look back with 20/20 vision.

The initial handling of the epidemic was poor. However I think you over-estimated the effect complete freedom in speech would have. By the time the health authorities in Wuhan realised they were dealing with a new virus because ~20 cases of pneumonia presented to hospital, there were likely hundreds, more likely thousands of people who had already been infected in Wuhan. We mourn Dr. Li because he and some others had the gut to make the cases known however for the general public to take actions you need more than a few Weibo messages and you are not going have the government locking down cities. This virus also happened close to the peak of pre-Chinese New Year travel. Honestly, I don't know if any major US cities would have done much better if there is a novel virus epidemic that occurs just before Thanksgiving, for example. It is pretty clear Wuhan's medical system is not able to handle all cases (not for lack of trying). However to be very cruel, at this stage whether 100 or 1000 people die in each day in Wuhan would not make too much of a difference in the global picture.

The subsequent action taken absolutely curtailed the spread of the virus outside Hubei. Other provinces and countries are reporting single digit daily new cases, which is probably less than what you would expect for new number of influenza cases at this time of the year. For the huge country the US is, there have only been 15 confirmed cases. In the city I am in with a large Chinese population, there have only been 4 cases with last being diagnosed ~3 weeks ago. I can also tell you it is certainly not because people are not presenting for medical attention. Personally I find that amazing,
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:59 am

Cerecl wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I disagree on China doing an amazing job. Freedom of speech would have stopped this early, probably in December when it could have been nothing. Instead we have crematoriums running 24/7 and the question is how large a multiple of the official death rate is real. The official infection and death rate just isn't plausible. This will be like SARS where outside experience, (then Hong Kong) gives the truth.
Lightsaber


It is very easy to look back with 20/20 vision.

The initial handling of the epidemic was poor. However I think you over-estimated the effect complete freedom in speech would have. By the time the health authorities in Wuhan realised they were dealing with a new virus because ~20 cases of pneumonia presented to hospital, there were likely hundreds, more likely thousands of people who had already been infected in Wuhan. We mourn Dr. Li because he and some others had the gut to make the cases known however for the general public to take actions you need more than a few Weibo messages and you are not going have the government locking down cities. This virus also happened close to the peak of pre-Chinese New Year travel. Honestly, I don't know if any major US cities would have done much better if there is a novel virus epidemic that occurs just before Thanksgiving, for example. It is pretty clear Wuhan's medical system is not able to handle all cases (not for lack of trying). However to be very cruel, at this stage whether 100 or 1000 people die in each day in Wuhan would not make too much of a difference in the global picture.

The subsequent action taken absolutely curtailed the spread of the virus outside Hubei. Other provinces and countries are reporting single digit daily new cases, which is probably less than what you would expect for new number of influenza cases at this time of the year. For the huge country the US is, there have only been 15 confirmed cases. In the city I am in with a large Chinese population, there have only been 4 cases with last being diagnosed ~3 weeks ago. I can also tell you it is certainly not because people are not presenting for medical attention. Personally I find that amazing,


Some good points but each country will have unique challenges. In addition to aforementioned comments about government ineptitude, Japanese culture will engender control challenges particularly because people are indoctrinated from a young age to tough things out and attend work and school when sick - which means they’ll be hacking all over trains and public spaces for weeks to come. There is a serious education gap in the population too - people under 40 are generally good about hand washing and hygiene, but older individuals often don’t cover when coughing and it is considered shameful to blow one’s nose in public so people sniffle endlessly and wipe snot away with their bare hands. Add in the density and it’s not a good recipe for prevention.
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JayinKitsap
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 7:30 am

I feel the Chinese are way behind the power curve, they had the info to establish quarantine 2+ weeks before they did. With the New Year, millions left Wuhan spreading it to many other locals. With a 9 day out of host infection period and it spreading before symptoms appear, it is quite wicked of an illness.

Not a good situation, I fear it will crash the Chinese economy, if it hasn't already.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:01 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
I feel the Chinese are way behind the power curve, they had the info to establish quarantine 2+ weeks before they did. With the New Year, millions left Wuhan spreading it to many other locals. With a 9 day out of host infection period and it spreading before symptoms appear, it is quite wicked of an illness.

Not a good situation, I fear it will crash the Chinese economy, if it hasn't already.



*Global economy. It's already creating supply chain issues globally.

Also, the quarantine at the time was unprecedented, it doesn't surprise me that China would have been a bit hesitant to do it. While they don't have to worry about public opinion so much, they do have to worry about tanking their own economy, but it was for the sake of saving lives. They made a draconian move that also happened to be the morally good choice at the same time.
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DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:09 am

I live in what's called China Town in Vegas, I never thought of contracting anything until someone mentioned it above.

Today I stood in line for 3.5 hours at High school in order to early vote for the Nevada Caucus, lots of young Chinese students made up the demographics of this area.
looking back. I probably should be worried. my daughter in law Asian and her practice (she's a physician) caters to the same area. so I probably should worry about her and my grandson catching it. Not sure why i'm not worried about my son. lol so many unknown variables. Getting a month's worth of food is a very good idea.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:10 am

https://youtu.be/kO5EXjFKE7U

This video shows the best timeline of just how fast China has reacted.

Had this virus been similar to SARS in terms of infection rate it would have been contained within a fortnight. No one expected it to be so contagious.

I have a heavy carnivore diet so stockpiling my usual food is difficult.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:30 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I live in what's called China Town in Vegas, I never thought of contracting anything until someone mentioned it above.

Today I stood in line for 3.5 hours at High school in order to early vote for the Nevada Caucus, lots of young Chinese students made up the demographics of this area.
looking back. I probably should be worried. my daughter in law Asian and her practice (she's a physician) caters to the same area. so I probably should worry about her and my grandson catching it. Not sure why i'm not worried about my son. lol so many unknown variables. Getting a month's worth of food is a very good idea.


Like I said, you should worry more about the travelers who aren't being scrutinized. The chances of getting it before our viral surveillance network picks up on community transmission though is low. You'd have to be one of the early few to be infected in such an outbreak to not already be aware of community transmission, which is not happening in the U.S. yet.

I've been under the impression you're a fellow lady, might I recommend bath and body work's pocketbac hand sanitizers and holder? I got one for my work lanyard. They smell nice and it's always there if I have to touch my face or I'm about to eat but don't have easy access to a sink to wash my hands I can give myself a good squirt. It helps me feel a bit safer, and does just keep my hands more sanitary than when I didn't have it.

As for preppin', I've been grabbing a couple cans of long shelf life items (veggies, spaghettios, soup) each week with my normal groceries to build up slowly. I also bought enough hand sanitizer and cleaners to last at least a few months. And I have 125 surgical masks, ASTM level I and 2.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:48 am

RJMAZ wrote:
https://youtu.be/kO5EXjFKE7U

This video shows the best timeline of just how fast China has reacted.

Had this virus been similar to SARS in terms of infection rate it would have been contained within a fortnight. No one expected it to be so contagious.


I have a heavy carnivore diet so stockpiling my usual food is difficult.


I am a basic level prepper and can give you some suggestions.
Sausages in bottles (over canned ones), corned beef (I love the Simmenthal branded ones), frozen meats, canned tuna (consumption to be spread due to high mercury), beef jerky, salami of all sorts (preference for Italian or French as they are cured longer and last longer, taste better).
About the frozen meats, make sure to buy fresh meat and write the freeze-in date as most meats are best consumed within 6 months. Use portion bags to be able to defrost single portions than an entire block of meat. Sliced ham and bacon freeze well.

For carbs, if money is not a concern, rice is a great option. Pasta is however usually the cheapest option and can even be cooked on candle fire.
 
WIederling
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:53 am

Jouhou wrote:
With current travel restrictions in place and strong scrutiny of travelers from China, it's going to be something like a white business traveler that stopped in Singapore (where there is currently some untraceable community transmission happening) that starts community transmission in the US. Because no one is scrutinizing them.


That is why I brought up that BBC snipped reporting strongly racist campaigning under faked pretexts by individuals.
Some posters in the past hours seem to value racism as the perfect tool to handle day to day life.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:35 am

WIederling wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
With current travel restrictions in place and strong scrutiny of travelers from China, it's going to be something like a white business traveler that stopped in Singapore (where there is currently some untraceable community transmission happening) that starts community transmission in the US. Because no one is scrutinizing them.


That is why I brought up that BBC snipped reporting strongly racist campaigning under faked pretexts by individuals.
Some posters in the past hours seem to value racism as the perfect tool to handle day to day life.


Earlier in this thread I shared the concern that if the outbreak didn't get contained at lightning speed it might result in the same kind of racism that was seen with SARS. That's one of the things that were being referred to as "Panic". I guess it is a panic thing, you can't see the virus and you want some kind of control so you kind of channel that fear to something you can see and avoid in order to feel in control. Guys, just clean and disinfect common surfaces, wash your hands, buy some hand sanitizer. It's far more productive in terms of feeling more in control of your environment. And it actually reduces transmission of everything, not just the coronavirus.
情報
 
WIederling
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:53 am

Jouhou wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
With current travel restrictions in place and strong scrutiny of travelers from China, it's going to be something like a white business traveler that stopped in Singapore (where there is currently some untraceable community transmission happening) that starts community transmission in the US. Because no one is scrutinizing them.


That is why I brought up that BBC snipped reporting strongly racist campaigning under faked pretexts by individuals.
Some posters in the past hours seem to value racism as the perfect tool to handle day to day life.


Earlier in this thread I shared the concern that if the outbreak didn't get contained at lightning speed it might result in the same kind of racism that was seen with SARS. That's one of the things that were being referred to as "Panic". I guess it is a panic thing, you can't see the virus and you want some kind of control so you kind of channel that fear to something you can see and avoid in order to feel in control. Guys, just clean and disinfect common surfaces, wash your hands, buy some hand sanitizer. It's far more productive in terms of feeling more in control of your environment. And it actually reduces transmission of everything, not just the coronavirus.


Medieval hysterics ( next thing is they don snouts with incandescences ).
Nothing much learned. no progress on some levels.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:56 am

Jouhou wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
With current travel restrictions in place and strong scrutiny of travelers from China, it's going to be something like a white business traveler that stopped in Singapore (where there is currently some untraceable community transmission happening) that starts community transmission in the US. Because no one is scrutinizing them.


That is why I brought up that BBC snipped reporting strongly racist campaigning under faked pretexts by individuals.
Some posters in the past hours seem to value racism as the perfect tool to handle day to day life.


Earlier in this thread I shared the concern that if the outbreak didn't get contained at lightning speed it might result in the same kind of racism that was seen with SARS. That's one of the things that were being referred to as "Panic". I guess it is a panic thing, you can't see the virus and you want some kind of control so you kind of channel that fear to something you can see and avoid in order to feel in control. Guys, just clean and disinfect common surfaces, wash your hands, buy some hand sanitizer. It's far more productive in terms of feeling more in control of your environment. And it actually reduces transmission of everything, not just the coronavirus.


These posters are far more practiced in emotionalism than critical thinking and objective, rational thought. It is unrealistic to expect them to suddenly employ reason when irrationality is natural to them.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:56 am

Jouhou wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
With current travel restrictions in place and strong scrutiny of travelers from China, it's going to be something like a white business traveler that stopped in Singapore (where there is currently some untraceable community transmission happening) that starts community transmission in the US. Because no one is scrutinizing them.


That is why I brought up that BBC snipped reporting strongly racist campaigning under faked pretexts by individuals.
Some posters in the past hours seem to value racism as the perfect tool to handle day to day life.


Earlier in this thread I shared the concern that if the outbreak didn't get contained at lightning speed it might result in the same kind of racism that was seen with SARS. That's one of the things that were being referred to as "Panic". I guess it is a panic thing, you can't see the virus and you want some kind of control so you kind of channel that fear to something you can see and avoid in order to feel in control. Guys, just clean and disinfect common surfaces, wash your hands, buy some hand sanitizer. It's far more productive in terms of feeling more in control of your environment. And it actually reduces transmission of everything, not just the coronavirus.


These posters are far more practiced in emotionalism than critical thinking and objective, rational thought. It is unrealistic to expect them to suddenly employ reason when irrationality is natural to them.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
WIederling
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:04 am

Aaron747 wrote:
These posters are far more practiced in emotionalism than critical thinking and objective, rational thought. It is unrealistic to expect them to suddenly employ reason when irrationality is natural to them.


Thanks for the explanation. I stand down.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:08 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
WIederling wrote:

That is why I brought up that BBC snipped reporting strongly racist campaigning under faked pretexts by individuals.
Some posters in the past hours seem to value racism as the perfect tool to handle day to day life.


Earlier in this thread I shared the concern that if the outbreak didn't get contained at lightning speed it might result in the same kind of racism that was seen with SARS. That's one of the things that were being referred to as "Panic". I guess it is a panic thing, you can't see the virus and you want some kind of control so you kind of channel that fear to something you can see and avoid in order to feel in control. Guys, just clean and disinfect common surfaces, wash your hands, buy some hand sanitizer. It's far more productive in terms of feeling more in control of your environment. And it actually reduces transmission of everything, not just the coronavirus.


These posters are far more practiced in emotionalism than critical thinking and objective, rational thought. It is unrealistic to expect them to suddenly employ reason when irrationality is natural to them.


Well, it's instinctive I think, it's a self preservation response that's simply being channelled unproductively. I feel it too, but I've just thought out ways to channel that anxiety. It's helpful to just point out to people what's causing their behavior and how to best work out their jitters.

It's also helpful and calming when governments take action and publicize it. That's a big part of my issue with the CDCs response. It'd be more calming if they isolated and cared for all patients, even mild ones, with an aggressive and public mobilization of resources. The military base quarantines are a calming thing. Letting mild cases just "self isolate" at home with others is NOT. Telling people that they don't need masks because we don't have them is not (They're cheap, why haven't they been stockpiled more? Why has the domestic industry been allowed to die off?). Telling people the flu is the real enemy just creates distrust (because it's disingenuous to everyone).

New announcements of test kits being distributed and that our full flu surveillance network will be utilized for detection is a good move and a calming measure. They need to do more of this.
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olle
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:16 am

WIederling wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
WIederling wrote:

That is why I brought up that BBC snipped reporting strongly racist campaigning under faked pretexts by individuals.
Some posters in the past hours seem to value racism as the perfect tool to handle day to day life.


Earlier in this thread I shared the concern that if the outbreak didn't get contained at lightning speed it might result in the same kind of racism that was seen with SARS. That's one of the things that were being referred to as "Panic". I guess it is a panic thing, you can't see the virus and you want some kind of control so you kind of channel that fear to something you can see and avoid in order to feel in control. Guys, just clean and disinfect common surfaces, wash your hands, buy some hand sanitizer. It's far more productive in terms of feeling more in control of your environment. And it actually reduces transmission of everything, not just the coronavirus.


Medieval hysterics ( next thing is they don snouts with incandescences ).
Nothing much learned. no progress on some levels.



Go back to 1918 with spanish flu and you see someting similar.

Governments are willing to be dramatic if requirred.

Soon many industries in west will have problem to maintain production because no deliverances from china. This will have long term consequences.

China political system will be considered as a business risk.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:18 am

Jouhou wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

Earlier in this thread I shared the concern that if the outbreak didn't get contained at lightning speed it might result in the same kind of racism that was seen with SARS. That's one of the things that were being referred to as "Panic". I guess it is a panic thing, you can't see the virus and you want some kind of control so you kind of channel that fear to something you can see and avoid in order to feel in control. Guys, just clean and disinfect common surfaces, wash your hands, buy some hand sanitizer. It's far more productive in terms of feeling more in control of your environment. And it actually reduces transmission of everything, not just the coronavirus.


These posters are far more practiced in emotionalism than critical thinking and objective, rational thought. It is unrealistic to expect them to suddenly employ reason when irrationality is natural to them.


Well, it's instinctive I think, it's a self preservation response that's simply being channelled unproductively. I feel it too, but I've just thought out ways to channel that anxiety. It's helpful to just point out to people what's causing their behavior and how to best work out their jitters.

It's also helpful and calming when governments take action and publicize it. That's a big part of my issue with the CDCs response. It'd be more calming if they isolated and cared for all patients, even mild ones, with an aggressive and public mobilization of resources. The military base quarantines are a calming thing. Letting mild cases just "self isolate" at home with others is NOT. Telling people that they don't need masks because we don't have them is not (They're cheap, why haven't they been stockpiled more? Why has the domestic industry been allowed to die off?). Telling people the flu is the real enemy just creates distrust (because it's disingenuous to everyone).

New announcements of test kits being distributed and that our full flu surveillance network will be utilized for detection is a good move and a calming measure. They need to do more of this.


CDC is being threatened with a significant funding cut in this next fiscal year - one would hope their response is not being politically impacted by a WH that is ultrakeen to avoid bad news.
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:40 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

These posters are far more practiced in emotionalism than critical thinking and objective, rational thought. It is unrealistic to expect them to suddenly employ reason when irrationality is natural to them.


Well, it's instinctive I think, it's a self preservation response that's simply being channelled unproductively. I feel it too, but I've just thought out ways to channel that anxiety. It's helpful to just point out to people what's causing their behavior and how to best work out their jitters.

It's also helpful and calming when governments take action and publicize it. That's a big part of my issue with the CDCs response. It'd be more calming if they isolated and cared for all patients, even mild ones, with an aggressive and public mobilization of resources. The military base quarantines are a calming thing. Letting mild cases just "self isolate" at home with others is NOT. Telling people that they don't need masks because we don't have them is not (They're cheap, why haven't they been stockpiled more? Why has the domestic industry been allowed to die off?). Telling people the flu is the real enemy just creates distrust (because it's disingenuous to everyone).

New announcements of test kits being distributed and that our full flu surveillance network will be utilized for detection is a good move and a calming measure. They need to do more of this.


CDC is being threatened with a significant funding cut in this next fiscal year - one would hope their response is not being politically impacted by a WH that is ultrakeen to avoid bad news.


Yeah, that seemed like something being that's going to be filed away to be brought back out later in the election season to haunt them. Like that's a political goldmine, threatening funding to the only defense we have against something people across the entire political spectrum are finding to be increasingly scary.

But they're going to do their best with what they have. They're a federal agency, they aren't here to play politics. Their mission is to control the spread of disease across our country. I just wish they'd stop being so quiet because they think that keeps people calm. It's doing the opposite. We know this virus exists, we don't trust China's word so we're automatically going to assume the worst. At this stage keeping people calm would be to make them feel protected. There was never really a time in this outbreak where keeping things quiet was ever going to be helpful
情報
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:49 am

Jouhou wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:

Well, it's instinctive I think, it's a self preservation response that's simply being channelled unproductively. I feel it too, but I've just thought out ways to channel that anxiety. It's helpful to just point out to people what's causing their behavior and how to best work out their jitters.

It's also helpful and calming when governments take action and publicize it. That's a big part of my issue with the CDCs response. It'd be more calming if they isolated and cared for all patients, even mild ones, with an aggressive and public mobilization of resources. The military base quarantines are a calming thing. Letting mild cases just "self isolate" at home with others is NOT. Telling people that they don't need masks because we don't have them is not (They're cheap, why haven't they been stockpiled more? Why has the domestic industry been allowed to die off?). Telling people the flu is the real enemy just creates distrust (because it's disingenuous to everyone).

New announcements of test kits being distributed and that our full flu surveillance network will be utilized for detection is a good move and a calming measure. They need to do more of this.


CDC is being threatened with a significant funding cut in this next fiscal year - one would hope their response is not being politically impacted by a WH that is ultrakeen to avoid bad news.


Yeah, that seemed like something being that's going to be filed away to be brought back out later in the election season to haunt them. Like that's a political goldmine, threatening funding to the only defense we have against something people across the entire political spectrum are finding to be increasingly scary.

But they're going to do their best with what they have. They're a federal agency, they aren't here to play politics. Their mission is to control the spread of disease across our country. I just wish they'd stop being so quiet because they think that keeps people calm. It's doing the opposite. We know this virus exists, we don't trust China's word so we're automatically going to assume the worst. At this stage keeping people calm would be to make them feel protected. There was never really a time in this outbreak where keeping things quiet was ever going to be helpful


Are you aware of how federal agencies are run? Despite clarity of mission, disconnect is common between upper management and rank-n-file. One is sensitive to political pressure, the other just wants to do their job. Look no further than NASA and shuttle mishaps.
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:01 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

CDC is being threatened with a significant funding cut in this next fiscal year - one would hope their response is not being politically impacted by a WH that is ultrakeen to avoid bad news.


Yeah, that seemed like something being that's going to be filed away to be brought back out later in the election season to haunt them. Like that's a political goldmine, threatening funding to the only defense we have against something people across the entire political spectrum are finding to be increasingly scary.

But they're going to do their best with what they have. They're a federal agency, they aren't here to play politics. Their mission is to control the spread of disease across our country. I just wish they'd stop being so quiet because they think that keeps people calm. It's doing the opposite. We know this virus exists, we don't trust China's word so we're automatically going to assume the worst. At this stage keeping people calm would be to make them feel protected. There was never really a time in this outbreak where keeping things quiet was ever going to be helpful


Are you aware of how federal agencies are run? Despite clarity of mission, disconnect is common between upper management and rank-n-file. One is sensitive to political pressure, the other just wants to do their job. Look no further than NASA and shuttle mishaps.


I'm well aware, I work for one. But when there is a disconnect like you point out, I've found giving a lecture about how we need to get our shit together for the sake of our "mission" is actually fairly effective for getting everyone back on the same page. If not, writing a letter to someone higher in the chain of command (or meeting with them directly) about whatever dysfunction and relating it to how it impacts our mission gets things done as well. Thing about the current presidential administration is they're more likely to give us no direction at all than meddle with us. They don't know how to operate the government. It's like putting a little kid in the cockpit of a plane and telling them to fly it from takeoff to landing. They probably won't even be able to get it off the ground to crash it. Executive orders have never been accompanied by implementation plans, unlike what we've seen with past administrations.
情報
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:57 pm

Covid19 may have a much longer incubation period than expected. Alternatively, the initial symptoms may be so mild that people could be spreading it around for a while before deteriorating and getting tested.

Several people in Tokyo tested positive almost one month after being infected.



THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
February 15, 2020 at 19:07 JST
Eight more Tokyo residents were confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus on Feb. 15, authorities said.
Six of them attended a New Year’s party on a “yakatabune” party boat. Another individual in his 40s worked on the party boat.
The party was held for independent taxi drivers in Tokyo. A taxi driver in his 70s had earlier been confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus. Others who attended the same party were also tested.
Four taxi drivers in their 50s to 80s, as well as two women in their 50s and 60s who live with two of the men, were confirmed to have the coronavirus.

The eighth case concerned a company employee in his 40s who had not visited either Hubei or Zhejiang provinces in China, where the highest number of infections have occurred, during the past two weeks.

Due to a prolonged incubation period, and a slow progression of illness, there appears to have been a substantial community transmission event in Tokyo back on January 18th, which has gone unrecognized for nearly 4 weeks.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:01 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
February 15, 2020 at 19:07 JST
Eight more Tokyo residents were confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus on Feb. 15, authorities said.
Six of them attended a New Year’s party on a “yakatabune” party boat. Another individual in his 40s worked on the party boat.
The party was held for independent taxi drivers in Tokyo. A taxi driver in his 70s had earlier been confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus. Others who attended the same party were also tested.
Four taxi drivers in their 50s to 80s, as well as two women in their 50s and 60s who live with two of the men, were confirmed to have the coronavirus.

The eighth case concerned a company employee in his 40s who had not visited either Hubei or Zhejiang provinces in China, where the highest number of infections have occurred, during the past two weeks.

Due to a prolonged incubation period, and a slow progression of illness, there appears to have been a substantial community transmission event in Tokyo back on January 18th, which has gone unrecognized for nearly 4 weeks.


It’s basic math - those people have been in crowded cafes and trains, passing money to cabfares, coughing in the cab before fares get in...tens of thousands are infected in Tokyo and unaware at this time.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:22 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
February 15, 2020 at 19:07 JST
Eight more Tokyo residents were confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus on Feb. 15, authorities said.
Six of them attended a New Year’s party on a “yakatabune” party boat. Another individual in his 40s worked on the party boat.
The party was held for independent taxi drivers in Tokyo. A taxi driver in his 70s had earlier been confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus. Others who attended the same party were also tested.
Four taxi drivers in their 50s to 80s, as well as two women in their 50s and 60s who live with two of the men, were confirmed to have the coronavirus.

The eighth case concerned a company employee in his 40s who had not visited either Hubei or Zhejiang provinces in China, where the highest number of infections have occurred, during the past two weeks.

Due to a prolonged incubation period, and a slow progression of illness, there appears to have been a substantial community transmission event in Tokyo back on January 18th, which has gone unrecognized for nearly 4 weeks.


It’s basic math - those people have been in crowded cafes and trains, passing money to cabfares, coughing in the cab before fares get in...tens of thousands are infected in Tokyo and unaware at this time.


If it isn't many more.
It seems that a lot of the people who have been diagnosed or tested positive, have seeked medical attention and been sent home with flu medication or antibiotics days or weeks before being diagnosed.
The flu season makes it impossible to diagnose the virus, and it's impossible to test everyone who comes in with flu symptoms.

-How many daily flights between Tokyo and the US?

-Several people mentionning panic above. Is it panic or survival instincts acquired upon generations of epidemic survivors? Should we suppress those instincts in the name of "avoiding panic"?
I also don't think that preparing masks and a stash of canned foods are unreasonable measures if you consider that hundreds of millions of people are locked down in the most populous country in the world. If it subsides before spreading to your area, then good, you can still eat the canned foods, use the masks for housekeeping or maintenance around the house.

-How does a Japanese couple come back from Hawaii with the virus, despite the absence of cases in Hawaii? Did they get infected in Japan? How many people did they infect in Hawaii?
Are US hospitals applying the correct procedures in diagnosing patients or are they sending everyone home with flu medication as seems to be happening in Japan?
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:32 pm

I have the cutest most adorable Asian grandbabies. I didn't think I had a racist bone in me. I'm mortified if I came across racists which obviously I did by thinking out loud about my family safety. so I apologize and will become more self-aware. yes, slipping hand sanitizer and wipes in your purse is the way to go. thank you for the advice.
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:53 pm

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918
Feb 16 03,927

Change in last 2 days -20%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183
Feb 16 529,418

Change in last 2 days +3%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/16/c_76584.htm
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:27 pm

Jouhou wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
I feel the Chinese are way behind the power curve, they had the info to establish quarantine 2+ weeks before they did. With the New Year, millions left Wuhan spreading it to many other locals. With a 9 day out of host infection period and it spreading before symptoms appear, it is quite wicked of an illness.

Not a good situation, I fear it will crash the Chinese economy, if it hasn't already.



*Global economy. It's already creating supply chain issues globally.

Also, the quarantine at the time was unprecedented, it doesn't surprise me that China would have been a bit hesitant to do it. While they don't have to worry about public opinion so much, they do have to worry about tanking their own economy, but it was for the sake of saving lives. They made a draconian move that also happened to be the morally good choice at the same time.


Yes they stood up and did the quarantine but a few weeks later than they should have, by then it was much bigger. This article in the Epoch Times indicates it didn't stop this banquet from occurring even though health people wanted to stop it. It caused a huge jump in exposure in late January. (I am unsure about the Epoch Times quality, it certainly isn't the WSJ, but is it real or not I do not know.)

https://www.theepochtimes.com/wuhan-nei ... 38635.html
 
NIKV69
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:32 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
This is unreal why are we bringing them back to the US? Quarantine them somewhere else and make sure they don't have virus before they are allowed back in the US.

https://twitter.com/ABC7NY/status/12287 ... 34497?s=20


It is normal procedure to conduct quarantines at an AFB. They are well-equipped and the military has established training and protocols for these situations.


Do the pilots and flight crew undergo the same quarantine?
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 8:54 pm

Cerecl wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I disagree on China doing an amazing job. Freedom of speech would have stopped this early, probably in December when it could have been nothing. Instead we have crematoriums running 24/7 and the question is how large a multiple of the official death rate is real. The official infection and death rate just isn't plausible. This will be like SARS where outside experience, (then Hong Kong) gives the truth.
Lightsaber


It is very easy to look back with 20/20 vision.

The initial handling of the epidemic was poor. However I think you over-estimated the effect complete freedom in speech would have. By the time the health authorities in Wuhan realised they were dealing with a new virus because ~20 cases of pneumonia presented to hospital, there were likely hundreds, more likely thousands of people who had already been infected in Wuhan. We mourn Dr. Li because he and some others had the gut to make the cases known however for the general public to take actions you need more than a few Weibo messages and you are not going have the government locking down cities. This virus also happened close to the peak of pre-Chinese New Year travel. Honestly, I don't know if any major US cities would have done much better if there is a novel virus epidemic that occurs just before Thanksgiving, for example. It is pretty clear Wuhan's medical system is not able to handle all cases (not for lack of trying). However to be very cruel, at this stage whether 100 or 1000 people die in each day in Wuhan would not make too much of a difference in the global picture.

The subsequent action taken absolutely curtailed the spread of the virus outside Hubei. Other provinces and countries are reporting single digit daily new cases, which is probably less than what you would expect for new number of influenza cases at this time of the year. For the huge country the US is, there have only been 15 confirmed cases. In the city I am in with a large Chinese population, there have only been 4 cases with last being diagnosed ~3 weeks ago. I can also tell you it is certainly not because people are not presenting for medical attention. Personally I find that amazing,

The actions in China do not correlate to the official numbers. Some number of people are "self quarantined" (locked in) and even dying. If there was freedom of speech, one can get a feel of the truth. Wile 85%+ of Twitter is bunk, there are gems in there.

I've seen enough reports of how sick people who need a hospital.

First and foremost, get a team to do an audit of the crematoriums in Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and randomly pick six more cities. If an independent audit comes back with expected deaths (I assume 1.25% per year or 3.4*10^-5* city population per day) is within 10%, I'll say China is doing a great job.

But the circumstantial evidence of crematorium utilization, normally a profession that works a half day for full pay (because no one loves their work), is maxed out.

I have neighbor's parents locked down in Chengdu with a low rate, how does that make sense? There are now, by some estimates, more people on lockdown than the population of the EU and almost at the population of EU+USA. That response makes zero sense off official numbers.

Lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:00 pm

olle wrote:
Soon many industries in west will have problem to maintain production because no deliverances from china. This will have long term consequences.

China political system will be considered as a business risk.

The shutdown has started (I posted a link on Hyundai factory due to parts from Hubai. A province big in fabrics (in particular shoes). Hocky sticks are in an amusing shortage. Airline widebodies parked. The shipping industry is taking a hit. The movie industry lost the #2 market.

Some will be hit, some have been hit. In Los Angeles (where I live), this must be impacting the business case of Movies.

Lightsaber
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:33 pm

lightsaber wrote:
olle wrote:
Soon many industries in west will have problem to maintain production because no deliverances from china. This will have long term consequences.

China political system will be considered as a business risk.

The shutdown has started (I posted a link on Hyundai factory due to parts from Hubai. A province big in fabrics (in particular shoes). Hocky sticks are in an amusing shortage. Airline widebodies parked. The shipping industry is taking a hit. The movie industry lost the #2 market.

Some will be hit, some have been hit. In Los Angeles (where I live), this must be impacting the business case of Movies.

Lightsaber


At least there's streaming for movies. Maybe its not a high revenue way of releasing them, but it can still make some money, unlike industries that have ground to a screeching halt. It's probably a good time to be a hand sanitizer and disinfectant producer because those don't require too many new hires for ramping up production at the same time that sales have gone through the roof. Medical PPE manufacturers have to make larger investments in equipment, lining up materials, and hiring lots of people which will suck once demand dies off. At the same time, it must be nice being a manufacturer of non woven fabrics and raw material needed like polypropylene. Once again, they don't need to make as many investments to up production so it should work out OK for them, even if they're losing out on other industries that buy their raw material, they're probably balancing out to a net gain since I heard the value of these materials has greatly increased.
情報
 
WIederling
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:45 pm

News here tonight:
The first batch ( ~120 ) of Germans retrieved and put in quarantine have been released ( with no further infections ).
2 cases separated on arrival with signs of infections.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:18 pm

NTT Japan is going to let its 200.000 staff work from home or commute outside peak hours and get their China based Japanese staff back home.

Source NHK
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:41 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I have the cutest most adorable Asian grandbabies. I didn't think I had a racist bone in me. I'm mortified if I came across racists which obviously I did by thinking out loud about my family safety. so I apologize and will become more self-aware. yes, slipping hand sanitizer and wipes in your purse is the way to go. thank you for the advice.



Naw, I didn't think you were being racist. I can see that people are worried and are just accidentally falling into the same old trap- Ebola made people afraid of people from Africa even if they had never been anywhere near the countries where outbreaks were happening. SARS made people afraid of Asians. You just have to take hold of your fears and remember it's the invisible virus you're worried about and take steps to protect yourself from the invisible enemy.
情報
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sun Feb 16, 2020 10:53 pm

NIKV69 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
NIKV69 wrote:
This is unreal why are we bringing them back to the US? Quarantine them somewhere else and make sure they don't have virus before they are allowed back in the US.

https://twitter.com/ABC7NY/status/12287 ... 34497?s=20


It is normal procedure to conduct quarantines at an AFB. They are well-equipped and the military has established training and protocols for these situations.


Do the pilots and flight crew undergo the same quarantine?


Not sure but probably unnecessary. Did you see what the Kalitta folks were wearing for the Wuhan evac flight?
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 17, 2020 4:56 am

lightsaber wrote:

The actions in China do not correlate to the official numbers. Some number of people are "self quarantined" (locked in) and even dying. If there was freedom of speech, one can get a feel of the truth. Wile 85%+ of Twitter is bunk, there are gems in there.

I've seen enough reports of how sick people who need a hospital.

First and foremost, get a team to do an audit of the crematoriums in Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and randomly pick six more cities. If an independent audit comes back with expected deaths (I assume 1.25% per year or 3.4*10^-5* city population per day) is within 10%, I'll say China is doing a great job.

But the circumstantial evidence of crematorium utilization, normally a profession that works a half day for full pay (because no one loves their work), is maxed out.

I have neighbor's parents locked down in Chengdu with a low rate, how does that make sense? There are now, by some estimates, more people on lockdown than the population of the EU and almost at the population of EU+USA. That response makes zero sense off official numbers.

Lightsaber


Yes, the extent of the government's actions would be appropriate for 20 to 30x the number of reported cases and deaths. Energy consumption and air pollution has not risen since the New Year, it would be 25% higher in a typical year.

The case reporting around Wuhan has risen a lot, most likely 'fixes' to the earlier fake statistics, but the number recovered is now rising nicely. I hope we are past the peak, but fear we are months short of it.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:10 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Thunderbolt500 wrote:
I hear this is a bio weapon that got out of a lab. They say there is parts of HIV virus in the cornavirus.


Provide sources or citations otherwise you’re just spreading blatant disinformation.

Here is the link to the paper.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 0.927871v1

The paper has been withdrawn. I did have an expert in this field read the paper when it was public. Basically there is a very high probability it was made in a lab. Some of the building blocks made it very unlikely to have evolved naturally.

However the fact remains it still could have evolved naturally so the paper was withdrawn. You need beyond 99% certainty to make such claims. 90% certainty does not cut it in the science world but in my world that is more than sufficient proof that it was man made.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:41 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Thunderbolt500 wrote:
I hear this is a bio weapon that got out of a lab. They say there is parts of HIV virus in the cornavirus.


Provide sources or citations otherwise you’re just spreading blatant disinformation.

Here is the link to the paper.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 0.927871v1

The paper has been withdrawn. I did have an expert in this field read the paper when it was public. Basically there is a very high probability it was made in a lab. Some of the building blocks made it very unlikely to have evolved naturally.

However the fact remains it still could have evolved naturally so the paper was withdrawn. You need beyond 99% certainty to make such claims. 90% certainty does not cut it in the science world but in my world that is more than sufficient proof that it was man made.


This paper seems to have entirely different conclusions. Again, that's why we can't allow wild claims without sources on topics like these.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)30251-8/fulltext
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WIederling
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 17, 2020 7:33 am

Jouhou wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I have the cutest most adorable Asian grandbabies. I didn't think I had a racist bone in me. I'm mortified if I came across racists which obviously I did by thinking out loud about my family safety. so I apologize and will become more self-aware. yes, slipping hand sanitizer and wipes in your purse is the way to go. thank you for the advice.



Naw, I didn't think you were being racist. I can see that people are worried and are just accidentally falling into the same old trap- Ebola made people afraid of people from Africa even if they had never been anywhere near the countries where outbreaks were happening. SARS made people afraid of Asians. You just have to take hold of your fears and remember it's the invisible virus you're worried about and take steps to protect yourself from the invisible enemy.


Strange. I never noticed this here in Germany ( or in Europe in general ).

Really no hysterics.
Murphy is an optimist
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 17, 2020 8:38 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918
Feb 16 03,927
Feb 17 03,611

Change in last 2 days -8%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183
Feb 16 529,418
Feb 17 546,016

Change in last 2 days +3%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/17/c_76588.htm
 
Cerecl
Posts: 609
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:22 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:28 am

JayinKitsap wrote:

Yes they stood up and did the quarantine but a few weeks later than they should have, by then it was much bigger. This article in the Epoch Times indicates it didn't stop this banquet from occurring even though health people wanted to stop it. It caused a huge jump in exposure in late January. (I am unsure about the Epoch Times quality, it certainly isn't the WSJ, but is it real or not I do not know.)

https://www.theepochtimes.com/wuhan-nei ... 38635.html

Epoch Times is supported/funded/?founded by Falun Gong (please google if not familiar). Generally one should trust its report on China to the same extent as one would trust Breitbart's report on Obama. However, the huge banquet did occur at the inopportune time-this is widely known and not really being covered up. The bits about the entire community being abandoned is probably crap. Again, it is very easy to look back and deride the initial response in Wuhan, which was poor. To lock down the city though is a major decision and I think a decision would be made too late almost anywhere in the world should a similar epidemic erupts.
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Jouhou
Topic Author
Posts: 2536
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:29 am

WIederling wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
I have the cutest most adorable Asian grandbabies. I didn't think I had a racist bone in me. I'm mortified if I came across racists which obviously I did by thinking out loud about my family safety. so I apologize and will become more self-aware. yes, slipping hand sanitizer and wipes in your purse is the way to go. thank you for the advice.



Naw, I didn't think you were being racist. I can see that people are worried and are just accidentally falling into the same old trap- Ebola made people afraid of people from Africa even if they had never been anywhere near the countries where outbreaks were happening. SARS made people afraid of Asians. You just have to take hold of your fears and remember it's the invisible virus you're worried about and take steps to protect yourself from the invisible enemy.


Strange. I never noticed this here in Germany ( or in Europe in general ).

Really no hysterics.


Really? Because it most certainly is a problem in europe although I'm sure Germans in particular are taught from a young age to be very self aware of their prejudices.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51294305
情報
 
WIederling
Posts: 9293
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:44 am

Jouhou wrote:
Really? Because it most certainly is a problem in europe although I'm sure Germans in particular are taught from a young age to be very self aware of their prejudices.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51294305

I know nothing about "Le Courier Picard" referenced in the article.
If it is like some British Yellow Press ( really a "Le péril jaune" ) or German "Bild"
over the top racism could be expected. They couldn't keep their gap shut
and seem to have hazed that "brown royal bitch" into retreat. What a downer!

My eye was more on how people act and less about what newspapers try to sell copy with.

( the article from the BBC i referenced further up was about groups of individuals
going for racist campaigning! )
Murphy is an optimist
 
Cerecl
Posts: 609
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:22 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 17, 2020 9:58 am

lightsaber wrote:
The actions in China do not correlate to the official numbers. Some number of people are "self quarantined" (locked in) and even dying. If there was freedom of speech, one can get a feel of the truth. Wile 85%+ of Twitter is bunk, there are gems in there.
I've seen enough reports of how sick people who need a hospital.
First and foremost, get a team to do an audit of the crematoriums in Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and randomly pick six more cities. If an independent audit comes back with expected deaths (I assume 1.25% per year or 3.4*10^-5* city population per day) is within 10%, I'll say China is doing a great job.
But the circumstantial evidence of crematorium utilization, normally a profession that works a half day for full pay (because no one loves their work), is maxed out.
I have neighbor's parents locked down in Chengdu with a low rate, how does that make sense? There are now, by some estimates, more people on lockdown than the population of the EU and almost at the population of EU+USA. That response makes zero sense off official numbers.
Lightsaber


I think we need to separate Hubei/Wuhan and the rest of China. I think it is a given that the situation in Wuhan is horrible and there are people who should be admitted but aren't. It is clear the healthcare system there is overwhelmed. For the rest of China, I have not seen even traditional anti-CCP media claiming massive under-reporting. I think it is important to realise that in this kind of environment it is almost impossible to accurately determine the number of cases, just like the annual flu-infection count is always a guesstimate.

The other thing to realise is that people are not acting rationally and decisions are made without firm scientific/epidemiological support. There was a story about people in Shanghai calling police because they saw a Wuhan-plated car, whose owner has not visited Wuhan for 3 months. There are a few cases of minor officials being sacked or even arrested, their crimes being holding a party. The CCP chief of Hubei province and Wuhan city have recently been unceremoniously dumped, obviously for messing up the initial response. Do you think their fellow chiefs/mayors are thinking "right, there are not many cases around let's relax quarantine" or "I am going to act really tough and hold this quarantine as long as possible so I can't be accused of being inactive and not taking this epidemic seriously"? People are scared, and no one wants to be the first to relax quarantine. I think the central government are sending out some signals about gradually returning life to normal, I don't think any province has really changed anything.
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2522
Joined: Wed Dec 25, 2013 1:04 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:11 pm

The only two bio labs in China that handle viruses like these are in Wuhan.

One of them is exactly 277m from the "wet market" where this thing supposidly started. It's literally across the street. And with markers in the virus strain that lean towards a man made virus, make up your own mind. What is more likely? The virus self evolved in that exact wet market, or it was leaked from the lab?
 
art
Posts: 3221
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:23 pm

I know that biological warfare development is extremely confidential but have there ever been any reports of unintentional leaks?
 
User avatar
Phosphorus
Posts: 815
Joined: Tue May 16, 2017 11:38 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:51 pm

art wrote:
I know that biological warfare development is extremely confidential but have there ever been any reports of unintentional leaks?

Among plausibly confirmed:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aral_smallpox_incident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak

Among suspected:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dugway_sh ... ble_causes
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