Waterbomber2
Posts: 974
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:12 pm

US CDC Travel advisory
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/wa ... irus-japan

Coronavirus in Japan

Watch - Level 1, Practice Usual Precautions

Key Points
The ongoing outbreak of respiratory illness has spread to Japan.
The virus can spread from person to person.
Travelers to Japan should avoid contact with sick people and clean their hands often by washing with soap and water for at least 20 seconds or using an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with 60%–95% alcohol.
What is the current situation?
A new coronavirus that recently emerged in China has been detected in a number of other locations around the world. Many cases of this new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) have been associated with travel to or from mainland China or close contact with a travel-related case, but multiple instances of community spread have been reported in Japan. Community spread means that people in Japan have been infected with the virus, but how or where they became infected is not known.

Illness with this virus has ranged from mild to severe. Signs and symptoms of infection include fever, cough, and difficulty breathing. Sore throat also has been reported in some patients. Some patients also have reported diarrhea without other symptoms. This new coronavirus has caused severe disease and death in patients who developed pneumonia. Risk factors for severe illness are not yet clear, although older adults and those with chronic medical conditions may be at higher risk for severe illness.

What can travelers do to protect themselves and others?
At this time, CDC does not recommend canceling or postponing travel to Japan. If you travel to Japan, take the following steps:

Avoid contact with sick people.
Avoid touching your eyes, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands.
Clean your hands often by washing them with soap and water for at least 20 seconds or using an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains at 60%–95% alcohol. Soap and water should be used if hands are visibly dirty.
It is especially important to clean hands after going to the bathroom; before eating; and after coughing, sneezing or blowing your nose.
If you spent time in Japan during the past 14 days and feel sick with fever, cough, or difficulty breathing:

Seek medical advice. Call ahead before going to a doctor’s office or emergency room. Tell them about your recent travel to Japan, an area with community spread of coronavirus, and your symptoms.
Avoid contact with others.
Do not travel while sick.
Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when coughing or sneezing.
Clean your hands by washing them with soap and water for at least 20 seconds or using an alcohol-based hand sanitizer that contains 60%–95% alcohol immediately after coughing, sneezing, or blowing your nose. Soap and water should be used if hands are visibly dirty.
Clinician Information
Healthcare providers should obtain a detailed travel history for patients with fever or acute respiratory symptoms. For patients with these symptoms who were in Japan and had onset of illness within 2 weeks of leaving, consider novel coronavirus infection and notify infection control personnel and your local health department immediately.

For additional healthcare infection control recommendations, visit CDC's Infection Control webpage.



IMO at this rate and barring major initiatives, it will be level 2 by early March and level 3 by the end of March.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1840
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:22 am

kalvado wrote:
[Quite a few countries with optimistic statistics. Looks like this is something in CHina in general and Wuhan in particular that makes it worse (genetics? Water contamination? Lack of certain nutrient? Combination of those?)
I believe pretty much every antiviral drug was tried. Some should work... Efficiency is pretty low in test tubes, though.

This has been answered many times already.

There is a very logical way to explain this.

Lets say 1000 people are infected. They are all locked at home and as a result 100 of them will die if they get zero medical assistance. That is a 10% death rate.

However if you put all the serious cases in hospital and provide medication, oxygen then only around 10 people will die. That is a 1% death rate. This assumes an unlimited supply of hospital beds, oxygen and medication.

The problem is most countries only have 1 hospital bed per 1000 people. So out of that original 1000 people where 100 of them would die, we then have to decide who that lucky person is who gets the hospital bed and oxygen supply. The other 99 then get left to die.

This is why Hubei has a high death toll. The infected vastly exceed the number of beds and this causes the death toll to go towards the 10% rate.

The death rate will be anywhere between 1% and 10% depending on how it is handled. If every gets infected it might be 1.5% in Norway but 8% in Vietnam.
 
Alfons
Posts: 299
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:17 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:07 am

It looks like China freed some statistics of the cases to outside, regarding gender of the infecteds and their mortality rate, age, life situation, pre-existing diseases. The article of today I found is from the Swiss NZZ (not a boulevard paper): https://www.nzz.ch/panorama/wer-stirbt- ... ld.1541686

It's written in german, the tile is "who dies the most on Corona? Not the little girl...". If those stats have been released today, you should find such articles also in other media outlets, do some google.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 974
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:11 am

The situation is quickly deteriorating in Japan.

3 new cases in Hokkaido today, 2 brothers, both school-going primary school students, and a customs/quarantine officer at New Chitose Airport.

3 new cases in Tokyo, no details.

1 new case in Chiba, a security guard.

First case in Ishikawa, has visited 4 different hospitals in 5 days before being diagnosed...
The man has visited Tokyo from Feb 12 to 14 and may have caught it there.

2 cases in Saitama, both are charter evacuees, and have been in isolation.
 
art
Posts: 3221
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:25 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918
Feb 16 03,927
Feb 17 03,611
Feb 18 03,318
Feb 19 02,934
Feb 20 01,671
Feb 21 02,503

Change in last 2 days +50%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183
Feb 16 529,418
Feb 17 546,016
Feb 18 560,901
Feb 19 574,418
Feb 20 589,163
Feb 20 606,037

Change in last 2 days +3%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/21/c_76740.htm
 
golfradio
Posts: 919
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:35 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:04 pm

Woman in B.C. Canada tests positive after returning from Iran in late January. Looks like Iran is going to be a hotspot. 2 deaths already.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6577201/b-c- ... -covid-19/
CSeries forever. Bring back the old site.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3284
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 1:49 pm

golfradio wrote:
Woman in B.C. Canada tests positive after returning from Iran in late January. Looks like Iran is going to be a hotspot. 2 deaths already.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6577201/b-c- ... -covid-19/


Death toll at Iran is actually at 4 already, out of 18 total cases.

But yeah, it seems like Iran could become a new hotspot, especially when you have that Canadian that traveled only to Iran and still caught nCoV.

Iranian medical system is also definitely bad compare to other places where an outbreak is occurring, so an outbreak there can be very disastrous.

Jouhou wrote:
Probably mostly the latter but the extremity of their "lock down"s is likely effective as well... but it's unsustainable.


Also keep in mind (I think you mentioned it earlier) that China keep changing how they count confirmed cases. New cases are below 1000 for the past two days because of that.

Expect the number of new cases to increase tomorrow, as they "subtract" some cases in Hubei the previous few days:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/coronav ... eaths.html

In that same link, it was also mentioned that there are outbreaks in prison in Hubei province.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The situation is quickly deteriorating in Japan.


Things are definitely not looking great in Japan. Even though South Korea has more cases now, those cases are confined to a small geographic area. Meanwhile, there are new cases popping up left and right all over Japan.

Of course, we all know the Japanese officials are probably more concern about the Olympic than people getting sick :banghead:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lastly, things are getting worse and worse in Daegu, South Korea:
https://time.com/5788511/south-korea-da ... -outbreak/

Total confirmed cases in SK jumped to 204, with a majority of them connected to the Sincheonji Church branch in Daegu. There are massive fear of community spreading in Daegu and nearby areas in Gyeongsangbuk-do. There's massive fear in the city as the outbreak could literally turn the city into Wuhan of South Korea quickly.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:25 pm

The numbers in China do not correlate with the response. The outbreaks in Iran, Japan, and Korea make it seem implausible that China did so well out of Hubei.

I believe people respond to Pavlovian conditioning. China has created a system that isn't conducive to stopping to virus nor restarting the economy. oops.

I say this with no glee as it is weeks away before my fellow Americans realize there is an issue. There is, due to transportation delays, another week or two for the EU.

zakuivcustom wrote:
golfradio wrote:
Woman in B.C. Canada tests positive after returning from Iran in late January. Looks like Iran is going to be a hotspot. 2 deaths already.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6577201/b-c- ... -covid-19/


Death toll at Iran is actually at 4 already, out of 18 total cases.

But yeah, it seems like Iran could become a new hotspot, especially when you have that Canadian that traveled only to Iran and still caught nCoV.

Iranian medical system is also definitely bad compare to other places where an outbreak is occurring, so an outbreak there can be very disastrous.

Jouhou wrote:
Probably mostly the latter but the extremity of their "lock down"s is likely effective as well... but it's unsustainable.


Also keep in mind (I think you mentioned it earlier) that China keep changing how they count confirmed cases. New cases are below 1000 for the past two days because of that.

Expect the number of new cases to increase tomorrow, as they "subtract" some cases in Hubei the previous few days:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/coronav ... eaths.html

In that same link, it was also mentioned that there are outbreaks in prison in Hubei province.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The situation is quickly deteriorating in Japan.


Things are definitely not looking great in Japan. Even though South Korea has more cases now, those cases are confined to a small geographic area. Meanwhile, there are new cases popping up left and right all over Japan.

Of course, we all know the Japanese officials are probably more concern about the Olympic than people getting sick :banghead:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lastly, things are getting worse and worse in Daegu, South Korea:
https://time.com/5788511/south-korea-da ... -outbreak/

Total confirmed cases in SK jumped to 204, with a majority of them connected to the Sincheonji Church branch in Daegu. There are massive fear of community spreading in Daegu and nearby areas in Gyeongsangbuk-do. There's massive fear in the city as the outbreak could literally turn the city into Wuhan of South Korea quickly.

Japan needs to let health authorities step in. The administrators haven't proven competent.

Daegu needs to reign this in or they and Qom too. However, in Iran, it has spread to multiple cities. The fact they cannot trace the source implies a multi generational infection.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/mobile.reute ... SKBN20F1R7

This needs to be like Singapore, get control within 3 weeks or watch the health system overwhelmed.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 10969
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 2:39 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Japan needs to let health authorities step in. The administrators haven't proven competent.


This will prove impossible for reasons I stated in reply 756.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
yonahleung
Posts: 60
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 4:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
The numbers in China do not correlate with the response. The outbreaks in Iran, Japan, and Korea make it seem implausible that China did so well out of Hubei.

I believe people respond to Pavlovian conditioning. China has created a system that isn't conducive to stopping to virus nor restarting the economy. oops.

I say this with no glee as it is weeks away before my fellow Americans realize there is an issue. There is, due to transportation delays, another week or two for the EU.

zakuivcustom wrote:
golfradio wrote:
Woman in B.C. Canada tests positive after returning from Iran in late January. Looks like Iran is going to be a hotspot. 2 deaths already.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6577201/b-c- ... -covid-19/


Death toll at Iran is actually at 4 already, out of 18 total cases.

But yeah, it seems like Iran could become a new hotspot, especially when you have that Canadian that traveled only to Iran and still caught nCoV.

Iranian medical system is also definitely bad compare to other places where an outbreak is occurring, so an outbreak there can be very disastrous.

Jouhou wrote:
Probably mostly the latter but the extremity of their "lock down"s is likely effective as well... but it's unsustainable.


Also keep in mind (I think you mentioned it earlier) that China keep changing how they count confirmed cases. New cases are below 1000 for the past two days because of that.

Expect the number of new cases to increase tomorrow, as they "subtract" some cases in Hubei the previous few days:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/coronav ... eaths.html

In that same link, it was also mentioned that there are outbreaks in prison in Hubei province.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
The situation is quickly deteriorating in Japan.


Things are definitely not looking great in Japan. Even though South Korea has more cases now, those cases are confined to a small geographic area. Meanwhile, there are new cases popping up left and right all over Japan.

Of course, we all know the Japanese officials are probably more concern about the Olympic than people getting sick :banghead:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lastly, things are getting worse and worse in Daegu, South Korea:
https://time.com/5788511/south-korea-da ... -outbreak/

Total confirmed cases in SK jumped to 204, with a majority of them connected to the Sincheonji Church branch in Daegu. There are massive fear of community spreading in Daegu and nearby areas in Gyeongsangbuk-do. There's massive fear in the city as the outbreak could literally turn the city into Wuhan of South Korea quickly.

Japan needs to let health authorities step in. The administrators haven't proven competent.

Daegu needs to reign this in or they and Qom too. However, in Iran, it has spread to multiple cities. The fact they cannot trace the source implies a multi generational infection.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/mobile.reute ... SKBN20F1R7

This needs to be like Singapore, get control within 3 weeks or watch the health system overwhelmed.

Lightsaber

I am increasingly convinced that the Chinese government is cooking the numbers to convince people to go back to work.

The main theme in Chinese media now is how few new cases there are and how many businesses have reopened.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3284
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 5:28 pm

yonahleung wrote:
I am increasingly convinced that the Chinese government is cooking the numbers to convince people to go back to work.

The main theme in Chinese media now is how few new cases there are and how many businesses have reopened.


Those and the Chinese media/govt keep mentioning "The outbreak is now under control". Something is fishy...VERY fishy.

(Oh...and Matthew Cheung in HK basically repeat that same line, only to be slammed by basically everyone on both sides of the aisle)
 
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Jouhou
Topic Author
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:02 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Japan needs to let health authorities step in. The administrators haven't proven competent.


This will prove impossible for reasons I stated in reply 756.


Does Japan even have health authorities?




I'm pretty concerned that Iran is going to be a complete disaster. They're isolated in terms of trade, they don't have the latest and greatest in tech, they aren't open about information, and their citizens travel and are highly mobile.
情報
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:08 pm

If Japan doesn't have a medical response plan, they will become a public health case study.

Iran concerns me. We must help as thus is virus vs. humanity. I say this as someone whose political opinion is Iran is a bad boy. If Iran fails, this hurts everyone.

Unfortunately, the world lacks enough supplies, if this breaks out. In particular if raw materials aren't made/processed due to quarantines.

For the record, quarantines work in my opinion, but only if long enough and enforced rigorously.

yonahleung wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The numbers in China do not correlate with the response. The outbreaks in Iran, Japan, and Korea make it seem implausible that China did so well out of Hubei.

I believe people respond to Pavlovian conditioning. China has created a system that isn't conducive to stopping to virus nor restarting the economy. oops.

I say this with no glee as it is weeks away before my fellow Americans realize there is an issue. There is, due to transportation delays, another week or two for the EU.

zakuivcustom wrote:

Death toll at Iran is actually at 4 already, out of 18 total cases.

But yeah, it seems like Iran could become a new hotspot, especially when you have that Canadian that traveled only to Iran and still caught nCoV.

Iranian medical system is also definitely bad compare to other places where an outbreak is occurring, so an outbreak there can be very disastrous.



Also keep in mind (I think you mentioned it earlier) that China keep changing how they count confirmed cases. New cases are below 1000 for the past two days because of that.

Expect the number of new cases to increase tomorrow, as they "subtract" some cases in Hubei the previous few days:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/coronav ... eaths.html

In that same link, it was also mentioned that there are outbreaks in prison in Hubei province.



Things are definitely not looking great in Japan. Even though South Korea has more cases now, those cases are confined to a small geographic area. Meanwhile, there are new cases popping up left and right all over Japan.

Of course, we all know the Japanese officials are probably more concern about the Olympic than people getting sick :banghead:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lastly, things are getting worse and worse in Daegu, South Korea:
https://time.com/5788511/south-korea-da ... -outbreak/

Total confirmed cases in SK jumped to 204, with a majority of them connected to the Sincheonji Church branch in Daegu. There are massive fear of community spreading in Daegu and nearby areas in Gyeongsangbuk-do. There's massive fear in the city as the outbreak could literally turn the city into Wuhan of South Korea quickly.

Japan needs to let health authorities step in. The administrators haven't proven competent.

Daegu needs to reign this in or they and Qom too. However, in Iran, it has spread to multiple cities. The fact they cannot trace the source implies a multi generational infection.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/mobile.reute ... SKBN20F1R7

This needs to be like Singapore, get control within 3 weeks or watch the health system overwhelmed.

Lightsaber

I am increasingly convinced that the Chinese government is cooking the numbers to convince people to go back to work.

The main theme in Chinese media now is how few new cases there are and how many businesses have reopened.

I believe it is to get production up. Something has to be done. The modern economy ships food everywhere.

The issue is not enough people have immunity. That means the health system is saturated everywhere in 4 weeks.

Chinese numbers just make zero sense vs. locking up people in apartments.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3284
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:43 pm

lightsaber wrote:
For the record, quarantines work in my opinion, but only if long enough and enforced rigorously.


The only way that works is, of course, the Chinese method of literally locking people in their own home.

Ok, in reality a heavy fine and threat of stiff punishment alone are usually enough. But some people take the chance anyway and if they're true nCoV carrier, only spread it around the community.

Jouhou wrote:
Does Japan even have health authorities?


I guess the "authority" would be some committee/department under the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare? In another word, just more bureaucracy as god knows how many people working in MHLW actually even know anything about infectious diseases.

lightsaber wrote:
I believe it is to get production up. Something has to be done. The modern economy ships food everywhere.


IMHO it's a matter of trying to balance the economy and the outbreak. China cannot afford to shut down 90% of the country for an indefinite time, with the economic impact simply being way too high not just locally, but globally (Lack of production from China = lack of stuff to integrated into a system elsewhere in the world).
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1238
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:56 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... e=Homepage

take a look at this chart the NYT posted this morning. VERY ALARMING
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 974
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:32 pm

A few critical updates for Japan:

-Australia saying that 4 passengers who were allowed to disembark the Diamond Princess on the basis of testing negative, and have returned with an evacuation flight, have tested positive.
-Similarly Israel has isolated an infected Israeli individual who has arrived to Israel after being allowed to disembark the DP
-Japanese doctors are sounding the alarm bell: designated COVID-19 treatment facilities are already reaching their limits, asking to equip smaller facilities to take in patients with lighter symptoms. "We may not be able to handle an additional group outbreak like the DP."
-One of two elementary school children who has tested positive in Hokkaido yesterday has been to school several days after starting to show symptoms on the 14th. His elder brother has also been back to school after starting to have symptoms, although just for a day. The concerned school has been closed, fears are that more cases will appear among its 200 students.
-The city of Tokyo has cancelled all public events for a month to avoid people gatherings.
-A confirmed case in Chiba has traveled to Gifu via Haneda Airport after developing a fever. Her condition worsened in Gifu and she traveled back before being hospitalised and tested positive.
-One of the two new cases in Kumamoto is a nurse working at a local hospital, and her father, may have contracted during her duties by an unknown carrier.
-Many health ministry workers who work/worked on the DP are returning to their stations without undergoing testing.


IMO Japan is going to see a huge spike, as many health professionals already came in close contact with carriers.
Time for the EU and the US to close the borders with Japan.
Looking at how the spread is happening in Japan from no-where, there could be already tens of thousands of unknowing carriers.

The Abe government is proving incompetent, media including the national NHK are starting to report doubts about the handling of the situation.

Sources NHK / Nihon TV

I also question the response of the WHO.
They keep asking for money, don't panic, but the window to stop this is closing, keep the borders open??? What does that mean?
Please fire that man, put someone who is coherent.
 
golfradio
Posts: 919
Joined: Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:35 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:55 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I also question the response of the WHO.


This. Right from the get go they tried to downplay this outbreak. IMO, the WHO and governments across the world (mine included) were afraid to confront the Chinese for real data and afraid to stand up to the CCP. Their attitude even today is S.N.A.F.U.

Foreign Affairs Canada has no caution for travel to HK, Japan (there is one for Rubella :roll: ), South Korea or Singapore, when most folks would think there is an active outbreak in those countries.
CSeries forever. Bring back the old site.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7886
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:00 pm

Michigan schools are enforcing 14-day quarantine for any student or family member who visited China recently.

Just 400 negative pressure rooms for the entire US is a concern.

Approximately how many ventilators entire country has?
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 974
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:07 am

An ongoing outbreak in Northern Italy.
A cluster of at least 15 has been identified, and includes doctors, nurses and patients at a hospital.

An individual was infected by a friend or colleague visiting from China and in turn seems to have infected others.
The first death has been recorded.
10 municipalities around ground zero have taken precautions, all businesses asked to remain closed, people asked to remain in their homes, ie a soft lock-down affecting 50.000 people.

Source: Corriere.it

Cases in the U.S. are now 35 per CNN reporting. Most of them evacuees, 2 local transmissions.

Source: CNN

Already over 1000 confirmed cases outside China.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:02 am

All these deaths for what? Because China didn't want to learn their lesson from SARS and continue the sales of "exotic animal products"?

If this mess ever dies down and the Chinese government does not pass the bills discussed in this article, I hope to God the rest of the world pulls out everything they can from the country, and even demand reparations or debt forgiveness.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00499-2


Just f*cking infuriating on so many levels...
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3284
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:07 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -outbreak-

Things are getting really ugly in Daegu in South Korea. 142 new cases in SK, majority of them in and around Daegu.
 
maint123
Posts: 339
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:14 am

The head of WHO was totally political since his first response. More interested in not offending the chinese rather then doing his job. Needs to be fired and a practical guy be in charge.
India has transported 100s of students from wuhan , and released a few after a 14 day quarantine. Now with quarantine duration of 14 days being considered inadequate, wonder what's going to happen ?
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 974
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 2:34 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/22/coronavirus-south-korea-sees-huge-jump-cases-china-hubei-wuhan-outbreak-

Things are getting really ugly in Daegu in South Korea. 142 new cases in SK, majority of them in and around Daegu.


That's not looking good indeed.
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 2055
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 3:34 am

Total Coronavirus cases now at almost 78,000 worldwide.
The "good news" however is that the trend no longer seems to be exponential and has become linear.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 
Waterbomber2
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Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 3:51 am

Dieuwer wrote:
Total Coronavirus cases now at almost 78,000 worldwide.
The "good news" however is that the trend no longer seems to be exponential and has become linear.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


That's what she said.

Jokes aside, take those numbers with tons of salt.
 
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JetBuddy
Posts: 2522
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:35 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
Total Coronavirus cases now at almost 78,000 worldwide.
The "good news" however is that the trend no longer seems to be exponential and has become linear.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


That's what she said.

Jokes aside, take those numbers with tons of salt.


That's funny.

Regarding the graphs, the numbers of deaths is still developing at the same pace as the last 14 days or so. The number of cases got a big jump a few days ago, but then flattened out. I don't think this means there are less new cases. If the big leap in cases was spread out over a few days, the scale would look as it has been for the last weeks.

But we can hope.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:58 am

Hokkaido prefecture, Japan, has just reported 8 new cases, including teenagers. If they are from the same elementary school as the 2 previous cases, thy have an outbreak on their hands.
The school has 200 students.
The virus seems to have been sparing children until now, I hope that the parents are advised to segregate them from their grandparents.

Source Nihon TV
 
art
Posts: 3221
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:05 am

Dates refer to data release dates:

New cases of confirmed infections

Feb 04 3,235
Feb 05 3,887
Feb 06 3,694
Feb 07 3,143
Feb 08 3,399
Feb 09 2,656
Feb 10 3,062
Feb 11 2,478
Feb 12 2,015

New cases of confirmed and diagnosed infections

Feb 13 15,152
Feb 14 05,090

New cases of confirmed and suspected infections

Feb 15 04,918
Feb 16 03,927
Feb 17 03,611
Feb 18 03,318
Feb 19 02,934
Feb 20 01,671
Feb 21 02,503
Feb 22 01,758

Change in last 2 days -30%

People who have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients

Feb 04 221,015
Feb 05 252,154
Feb 06 282,813
Feb 07 314,028
Feb 08 345,498
Feb 09 371,904
Feb 10 399,487
Feb 11 428,438
Feb 12 451,462
Feb 13 471,531
Feb 14 493,067
Feb 15 513,183
Feb 16 529,418
Feb 17 546,016
Feb 18 560,901
Feb 19 574,418
Feb 20 589,163
Feb 21 606,037
Feb 22 618,915

Change in last 2 days +2%

http://en.nhc.gov.cn/2020-02/22/c_76777.htm
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 974
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:38 am

Chiba prefecture Japan, reporting a junior high teacher has tested positive almost 10 days after the first symptoms appeared on the 12th. The school has been closed for disinfection for a week. I doubt that that will be enough to ensure nobody got infected, most probably at least a few dozen... Holy cr*p

Now an infection being reported in the Veneto, Italy.

First infections in Lebanon.

At this point, we can say that we have a pandemic on our hands.
The US has been relatively spared up to now.
Pres. Trump is showcasing first class leadership:

President Donald Trump became enraged with senior advisers this week when 14 Americans who tested positive for the coronavirus were brought back to the US from Japan after he had been told they would remain quarantined overseas, administration officials told The Washington Post.

The President was first told that Americans who were aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where the coronavirus has spread, would be flown back to the US on two planes but that patients with the infection or with symptoms would stay in Japan, where the ship is anchored, the newspaper reported.
However, the State Department and a US health official decided to bring back the infected Americans on the planes and place them in isolation without telling the President, the Post said.


Source CNN

You're fired!!
Time for Trump to fire the WHO leadership (America's funding them so...) and put some of the CDC people who seem to be doing a great job of containing this thing meticilously.

What the freak are European leaders doing?
Italy's PM Conte is doing a relatively good job, they are taking draconian measures. They're probably days from shutting down everything and closing borders to contain this. In the meanwhile, a second death is reported for Italy.
The situation is deteriorating very fast in Italy, Japan and South korea.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:55 am

It will be interesting to see what happens now. Official numbers (if they are to be believed) suggest that China is managing to slowly contain it. But now it really seems to be kicking off in different countries. Japan, South Korea and Singapore are leading in numbers of infected, but now Italy and Iran are also dealing with relatively big outbreaks. Contrary to China, those two don't have a command-society where total lock-downs of entire cities is just as easy to do.
 
art
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:50 am

I wonder what will happen with North Korea, controlled by a highly secretive regime. Where this outbreak of infectious disease is concerned, its isolation from the outside world has advantages and disadvantages. Yes, the people of NK are contained but it may become endemic there whereby NK international traders, diplomats etc could be carriers when they travel to the rest of the world. Equally, any escapees into southern China may bring the disease with them.

As per China, any NK government data related to the progress of infection will not be credible, making it more difficult for countries to respond in an informed manner.

PS Travel from China to other countries is being restricted. Japan looks like it may fail to contain spread of the virus in the county. South Korea looks to be heading the same way. If several countries see epidemics, how long can other countries restrict travel from them? And with falls in production in countries with epidemics or lockdown measures won't the world economy slow down in a big way?
Last edited by art on Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
777
Posts: 439
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:12 am

The only positive news today in Italy is that the first 3 people found positive to Coronavirus (two Chinese and one Italian that was living in China), have fully recovered.
 
art
Posts: 3221
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 3:46 pm

Re: South Korea outbreak

More than half of the national cases are linked to a 61-year-old woman known as “Patient 31” who attended religious services at a branch of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu, the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony. The woman had no recent record of overseas travel, authorities said.

Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Saturday they had obtained a list of 9,300 people who had attended church services, around 1,200 of whom had complained of flu-like symptoms.


https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china ... K?rpc=401&

1,200 with symptoms is very alarming.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 5:35 pm

art wrote:
I wonder what will happen with North Korea, controlled by a highly secretive regime. Where this outbreak of infectious disease is concerned, its isolation from the outside world has advantages and disadvantages. Yes, the people of NK are contained but it may become endemic there whereby NK international traders, diplomats etc could be carriers when they travel to the rest of the world. Equally, any escapees into southern China may bring the disease with them.

As per China, any NK government data related to the progress of infection will not be credible, making it more difficult for countries to respond in an informed manner.

PS Travel from China to other countries is being restricted. Japan looks like it may fail to contain spread of the virus in the county. South Korea looks to be heading the same way. If several countries see epidemics, how long can other countries restrict travel from them? And with falls in production in countries with epidemics or lockdown measures won't the world economy slow down in a big way?


DPRK doesn't have a business or diplomatic relationships with many countries, China is ground zero, DPRK transplants cannot harm more.

My concern is Singapore, a modern globally-connected police state.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:28 pm

I very much hope Carnival is completely spared. Fun pictures: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11018173/ ... g-outfits/

My nightmare scenario is Coronavirus in the favelas.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 6:52 pm

The WHO is by very definition political. To label it as such and as a criticism is to misunderstand society. The WHO needs the cooperation of the leadership of every country it works with. Critical evaluations are stated as positive goals. Lines of communication are protected. We can and do criticize Chinese leadership. It would be inappropriate and counterproductive for the WHO to do so openly.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
dampfnudel
Posts: 570
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:12 pm

The clusters of infected people in South Korea and Japan is definitely alarming. Someone else here talked about the possibility of all APAC flights being suspended if other Asian countries experienced significant outbreaks. I think we’re getting close to that point.
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hoons90
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Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2001 10:15 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:51 pm

dampfnudel wrote:
The clusters of infected people in South Korea and Japan is definitely alarming. Someone else here talked about the possibility of all APAC flights being suspended if other Asian countries experienced significant outbreaks. I think we’re getting close to that point.


The numbers in Korea are probably as close as you can get to the "real" numbers. Korea is aggressively contact tracing and testing anyone who has symptoms, regardless of travel history. Japan, on the other hand, allowed the release of hundreds of people that were on the cruise ship, some of which who tested positive after they disembarked. Some of them took public transit to go home. Japan is testing less people than Korea is. It's scary to think how there could be hundreds, if not thousands of potentially infected people out and about, carrying out their daily routines in public without even knowing they're infected.

Korea's number of confirmed cases is alarmingly high, but not a lot of other countries (save for perhaps Singapore) are testing to the degree that Korea is. Heck, I heard there are only three cities in the US that are testing for it!
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VSMUT
Posts: 3719
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:51 pm

777 wrote:
The only positive news today in Italy is that the first 3 people found positive to Coronavirus (two Chinese and one Italian that was living in China), have fully recovered.


The number of infected people has over doubled since yesterday! :shock:
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6179
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:56 pm

I am really wondering what the correct procedure is when it comes to handling of [coronavirus] infections on those giant cruise ships? Is there really any? Or is it damn if you do [keep passengers onboard] and damn if you don't [and let them evacuate to their home countries.
To me it seems the cruise ships are huge floating Petri's diashes where spreading of the disease is very easy given the amount of people squeezed into a small area. Perhaps suspension of service of cruise ships should be among the first steps to be taken in the future, when there is another outbreak like we are experiencing now.
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6179
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:13 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The WHO is by very definition political.

Thus by definition useless. As are most of UN's agencies.
 
Aither
Posts: 1227
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:17 pm

It looks like the number of contaminations is lower relative to the sizes of population in the south of China. Could this means higher temperatures this summer could stop the virus ?
Of course there are cases in Singapore but air conditioning is everywhere there. Maybe the best way to stop the virus is to ban aircon !
Never trust the obvious
 
kalvado
Posts: 2496
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:24 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
I am really wondering what the correct procedure is when it comes to handling of [coronavirus] infections on those giant cruise ships? Is there really any? Or is it damn if you do [keep passengers onboard] and damn if you don't [and let them evacuate to their home countries.
To me it seems the cruise ships are huge floating Petri's diashes where spreading of the disease is very easy given the amount of people squeezed into a small area. Perhaps suspension of service of cruise ships should be among the first steps to be taken in the future, when there is another outbreak like we are experiencing now.

I suspect ship HVAC system was either not designed to the task or failed to perform as designed. It should be set to avoid room to room movement; any recirculating air should go through filters and UV irradiating chambrs. Some blocked vents could mess things up.
In ideal world, unloading people into small group isolation would be ideal. USAF base quarantine may be an example. I guess it is a bit easier to set up proper ventilation on a less cramped land facility, even if that is a single building - not isolated cottage/tents (which may be even better option)
Now to setup housing facility for a few thousand people on short notice may be a challenge on its own. I wonder if Olympic hotels in Tokyo are sufficiently completed and could be used, and can be reasonably isolated from the rest of the city...
 
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lightsaber
Moderator
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:29 pm

hoons90 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
The clusters of infected people in South Korea and Japan is definitely alarming. Someone else here talked about the possibility of all APAC flights being suspended if other Asian countries experienced significant outbreaks. I think we’re getting close to that point.


The numbers in Korea are probably as close as you can get to the "real" numbers. Korea is aggressively contact tracing and testing anyone who has symptoms, regardless of travel history. Japan, on the other hand, allowed the release of hundreds of people that were on the cruise ship, some of which who tested positive after they disembarked. Some of them took public transit to go home. Japan is testing less people than Korea is. It's scary to think how there could be hundreds, if not thousands of potentially infected people out and about, carrying out their daily routines in public without even knowing they're infected.

Korea's number of confirmed cases is alarmingly high, but not a lot of other countries (save for perhaps Singapore) are testing to the degree that Korea is. Heck, I heard there are only three cities in the US that are testing for it!

Korea is finding it and stopping it. This will mean far fewer transmissions and exponentially fewer deaths.

I too believe Korea is representative of the real China outside of Wuhan.

Lightsaber
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zakuivcustom
Posts: 3284
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:34 pm

Aither wrote:
It looks like the number of contaminations is lower relative to the sizes of population in the south of China. Could this means higher temperatures this summer could stop the virus ?
Of course there are cases in Singapore but air conditioning is everywhere there. Maybe the best way to stop the virus is to ban aircon !


Guangdong is still #2 Province in terms of number of cases, after Hubei. But higher temperature does seems to help the healing rate and also lower the number of deaths (only 3 in Guangdong compare to 15 in Henan, with a similar number of cases).

hoons90 wrote:
dampfnudel wrote:
The clusters of infected people in South Korea and Japan is definitely alarming. Someone else here talked about the possibility of all APAC flights being suspended if other Asian countries experienced significant outbreaks. I think we’re getting close to that point.


The numbers in Korea are probably as close as you can get to the "real" numbers. Korea is aggressively contact tracing and testing anyone who has symptoms, regardless of travel history. Japan, on the other hand, allowed the release of hundreds of people that were on the cruise ship, some of which who tested positive after they disembarked. Some of them took public transit to go home. Japan is testing less people than Korea is. It's scary to think how there could be hundreds, if not thousands of potentially infected people out and about, carrying out their daily routines in public without even knowing they're infected.

Korea's number of confirmed cases is alarmingly high, but not a lot of other countries (save for perhaps Singapore) are testing to the degree that Korea is. Heck, I heard there are only three cities in the US that are testing for it!


I was thinking Singapore also when it comes to aggressive testing.

I can see the medical system being extremely overwhelmed in Daegu, though. The outbreak there is almost reminiscent of Wuhan.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2496
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:34 pm

Aither wrote:
It looks like the number of contaminations is lower relative to the sizes of population in the south of China. Could this means higher temperatures this summer could stop the virus ?
Of course there are cases in Singapore but air conditioning is everywhere there. Maybe the best way to stop the virus is to ban aircon !

Higher temperature is known to shorten survival time of other coronaviruses. There are a few papers linking SARS infections with weather conditions (temperature, humidity, wind). nCoV is not yet analyzed, but trend is likely the same. Trump's saying it will go away in spring does have some merit, after all.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 974
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:39 pm

Salvini, Italy's influential Lega Nord party leader is calling for closures of all borders, ports and airports "to protect our children and families". He is also saying that if Conte is unable to deal with this emergency, he should step down and let those who can, take charge of the situation.
Forza Italia, the rightist party of Berlusconi is also stating that it's time to consider closing mandatory quarantines and border closures, suspension of the Shengen agreement to try to contain this to avoid underreaction.
Leftist PD is saying that none of that is necessary and they know what they're doing and that Salvini should shut it... :thumbsdown:

This crisis is becoming as much about politics and ideology as anything else. Politicians should be tried for unnecessary deaths resulting from their "liberal" policies.
Italy's cases have climbed to 63 overnight from just 3 a few days ago, universities in Lombardy are closed UFN.

The WHO in the meanwhile is emphasizing that 80% of cases only showcase mild symptoms.


In the meanwhile in Japan, several schools across the nation have been closed after students and teachers at those schools tested positive.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 974
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Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:54 pm

kalvado wrote:
Aither wrote:
It looks like the number of contaminations is lower relative to the sizes of population in the south of China. Could this means higher temperatures this summer could stop the virus ?
Of course there are cases in Singapore but air conditioning is everywhere there. Maybe the best way to stop the virus is to ban aircon !

Higher temperature is known to shorten survival time of other coronaviruses. There are a few papers linking SARS infections with weather conditions (temperature, humidity, wind). nCoV is not yet analyzed, but trend is likely the same. Trump's saying it will go away in spring does have some merit, after all.


Don't be fooled by the reported numbers, China has practically stopped reporting numbers.
The infections are climbing and fear is taking hold of Southern cities too.

My Chinese business partners are not answering my calls or emails, no one is manning the phones at their HQ in Shenzhen.
Last I heard production was to restart at 40% this week with local workers but then they went radio silent.
For all I know from this is that cases may have appeared within the company and everyone is dead-scared and they don't give a hoot about their jobs anymore.

Warmer temperatures may reduce the length of survival of the virus in open spaces and strengthen people's immune systems, plus reduce the incidence of other seasonal infections to allow earlier detection and containment.
However, with the virus being so volatile and contagious, that alone should be insufficient to stop a catastrophic spread.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 974
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:00 pm

Latest developments for Italy, Italy is taking major steps to attempt to isolate the clusters and outbreaks. Big gatherings including major soccer games are being cancelled, decrees are being signed into law to forbid people from leaving or entering isolated cities.
Hundreds of medical professionals are being tested.

Source: Corriere
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7886
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:15 pm

kalvado wrote:
Higher temperature is known to shorten survival time of other coronaviruses. There are a few papers linking SARS infections with weather conditions (temperature, humidity, wind). nCoV is not yet analyzed, but trend is likely the same. Trump's saying it will go away in spring does have some merit, after all.


It would be nice to see some studies. New Delhi, India being one of the most polluted cities in the world, virus cannot get through pollution particles.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Don't be fooled by the reported numbers, China has practically stopped reporting numbers.


That is also my suspicion. They achieved total control on reporting and social media, and the internet moved on to Japan, Iran, South Korea, and Italy.

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