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Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:52 am
by Jouhou
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

In December an outbreak of viral pneumonia was detected in Wuhan, China. The cases all originate at a seafood market. It has since been identified as a betacoronavirus showing somewhere between 70-90% genetic similarity with the SARS coronavirus. Airports have stepped up screening for fever and illness on passengers coming from Wuhan. People rushed out to buy n95 masks in Hong Kong.

Recent updates to the situation include the first death of an infected patient (6 patients remain in serious condition), and the first detection of the virus outside of China has been found in Thailand (I'm not sure if they were detected as a result of airport screening from these poor translations from Thai I've been reading but I think they might have been) in a tourist from Wuhan, and the virus has been named by the WHO as 2019-nCoV (not much of a name, I'll still think of it as the Wuhan coronavirus).

China keeps reporting the virus is not being transmitted from person to person, but there's reason to be skeptical. China is not always forthcoming about dangerous outbreaks within their borders.


Edit: I would also advise anyone flying through the East Asian - South East Asian region to get a flu shot if you haven't. Most of the adult travelers being quarantined at the airports are being found to be infected with influenza. With the likely increase in scale of the airport screenings following the discovery of the virus in Thailand it'd be a good step for avoiding quarantine.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:32 am
by N14AZ
Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

I was also surprised that there is no discussion about this topic. Let’s hope this will not become a second SARS-event.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:37 am
by SQ22
Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

In December an outbreak of viral pneumonia was detected in Wuhan, China. The cases all originate at a seafood market. It has since been identified as a betacoronavirus showing somewhere between 70-90% genetic similarity with the SARS coronavirus. Airports have stepped up screening for fever and illness on passengers coming from Wuhan. People rushed out to buy n95 masks in Hong Kong.

Recent updates to the situation include the first death of an infected patient (6 patients remain in serious condition), and the first detection of the virus outside of China has been found in Thailand (I'm not sure if they were detected as a result of airport screening from these poor translations from Thai I've been reading but I think they might have been) in a tourist from Wuhan, and the virus has been named by the WHO as 2019-nCoV (not much of a name, I'll still think of it as the Wuhan coronavirus).

China keeps reporting the virus is not being transmitted from person to person, but there's reason to be skeptical. China is not always forthcoming about dangerous outbreaks within their borders.


Edit: I would also advise anyone flying through the East Asian - South East Asian region to get a flu shot if you haven't. Most of the adult travelers being quarantined at the airports are being found to be infected with influenza. With the likely increase in scale of the airport screenings following the discovery of the virus in Thailand it'd be a good step for avoiding quarantine.


Please remember to provide a source when stating facts. Thanks.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:52 am
by Jouhou
SQ22 wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

In December an outbreak of viral pneumonia was detected in Wuhan, China. The cases all originate at a seafood market. It has since been identified as a betacoronavirus showing somewhere between 70-90% genetic similarity with the SARS coronavirus. Airports have stepped up screening for fever and illness on passengers coming from Wuhan. People rushed out to buy n95 masks in Hong Kong.

Recent updates to the situation include the first death of an infected patient (6 patients remain in serious condition), and the first detection of the virus outside of China has been found in Thailand (I'm not sure if they were detected as a result of airport screening from these poor translations from Thai I've been reading but I think they might have been) in a tourist from Wuhan, and the virus has been named by the WHO as 2019-nCoV (not much of a name, I'll still think of it as the Wuhan coronavirus).

China keeps reporting the virus is not being transmitted from person to person, but there's reason to be skeptical. China is not always forthcoming about dangerous outbreaks within their borders.


Edit: I would also advise anyone flying through the East Asian - South East Asian region to get a flu shot if you haven't. Most of the adult travelers being quarantined at the airports are being found to be infected with influenza. With the likely increase in scale of the airport screenings following the discovery of the virus in Thailand it'd be a good step for avoiding quarantine.


Please remember to provide a source when stating facts. Thanks.


Hard to do when I'm covering news I've been watching for a couple of weeks that has trickled out in small tidbits, I guess WHO summarizes the basic info. https://www.who.int/csr/don/12-january- ... -china/en/

Article about the infected person in Thailand http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... eler-china

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:51 pm
by einsteinboricua
Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

Only when a non-first world disease impacts a first world country will it become news and action will be taken.

We saw it with Ebola.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:55 pm
by trpmb6
I haven't heard anything about this yet, and I've been paying a bit more attention to these types of things this year due to recent personal events. Thanks for sharing.

einsteinboricua wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

Only when a non-first world disease impacts a first world country will it become news and action will be taken.

We saw it with Ebola.


Sadly, this is probably why I haven't heard anything.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:06 pm
by Jouhou
einsteinboricua wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Noticed it's strange no one has started a discussion on this yet, since it impacts aviation.

Only when a non-first world disease impacts a first world country will it become news and action will be taken.

We saw it with Ebola.


It's actually been huge news for anyone following infectious disease news. Also people in Singapore and Hong Kong who are pretty worried about it.

Thing about coronaviruses there's still no vaccine for them. It'd be more like SARS than Ebola, considering its closely related to SARS.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:12 pm
by einsteinboricua
Jouhou wrote:
It's actually been huge news for anyone following infectious disease news.

Which is likely a fraction of the population.

The media also has a responsibility to not stoke fear. They failed miserably at this with the Ebola outbreak in 2014.

Until we see a case enter the developed world, don't expect much attention. Maybe news in Singapore and Hong Kong are covering it, but then again, odds are their news studios are not sensationalists who are after ratings.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:22 pm
by casinterest
It is troubling that quite a few are sick, but i don't see this as a large outbreak at this point. It is a scary one, but Human -to Human seems sporadic at best as they track the incidence amongst families.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0114 ... s-warning/

Today, the WHO said there may have been limited human-to-human transmission of the new virus in China within families, and it is possible there could be a wider outbreak.

"From the information that we have it is possible that there is limited human-to-human transmission, potentially among families, but it is very clear right now that we have no sustained human-to-human transmission," said Maria Van Kerkhove, acting head of WHO's emerging diseases unit.

The WHO is however preparing for the possibility that there could be a wider outbreak, she told a Geneva news briefing. "It is still early days, we don't have a clear clinical picture."

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:27 pm
by Jouhou
einsteinboricua wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
It's actually been huge news for anyone following infectious disease news.

Which is likely a fraction of the population.

The media also has a responsibility to not stoke fear. They failed miserably at this with the Ebola outbreak in 2014.

Until we see a case enter the developed world, don't expect much attention. Maybe news in Singapore and Hong Kong are covering it, but then again, odds are their news studios are not sensationalists who are after ratings.


It's also the impact on aviation that will make it bigger news of new people are found infected. Like SARS, the only way of dealing with it is containing it's spread. If more cases are found, expect screenings at all international airports. Ebola is deadly but not highly infectious, and the countries effected don't have a lot of international travelers. There is also now a vaccine.

A SARS like coronavirus causes respiratory infections that have a great deal of potential to spread as readily as other respiratory diseases.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:18 pm
by zakuivcustom
einsteinboricua wrote:
Until we see a case enter the developed world, don't expect much attention. Maybe news in Singapore and Hong Kong are covering it, but then again, odds are their news studios are not sensationalists who are after ratings.


HK media are definitely covering things, with the number of actual suspected cases in HK being higher than Wuhan itself.

I wouldn't say HK media are not sensationalist, though. The top two Chinese newspapers (on opposite side of political spectrum) aka Apple Daily and Oriental Daily are VERY sensationalist. You can't blame HKers for worrying about another SARS, though, especially after the long cover-up by mainland government back then. Hack, even yesterday, a few HK TV station had their reporters detained and questioned near the "epicenter" hospital in Wuhan (And yes, it include the ultra pro-China TVB).

With Chunyun coming up, if the virus is worse than current reports, things can get really messy quickly.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:30 pm
by Jouhou
zakuivcustom wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
Until we see a case enter the developed world, don't expect much attention. Maybe news in Singapore and Hong Kong are covering it, but then again, odds are their news studios are not sensationalists who are after ratings.


HK media are definitely covering things, with the number of actual suspected cases in HK being higher than Wuhan itself.

I wouldn't say HK media are not sensationalist, though. The top two Chinese newspapers (on opposite side of political spectrum) aka Apple Daily and Oriental Daily are VERY sensationalist. You can't blame HKers for worrying about another SARS, though, especially after the long cover-up by mainland government back then. Hack, even yesterday, a few HK TV station had their reporters detained and questioned near the "epicenter" hospital in Wuhan (And yes, it include the ultra pro-China TVB).

With Chunyun coming up, if the virus is worse than current reports, things can get really messy quickly.


Even if most of the people in HK being quarantined with the flu, It actually will help decrease the genetic diversity of existing pathogens like the flu to be quarantining the sick and people wearing face masks. The rest of the world will benefit even if they don't realize it by extra precautions being taken in Asia. So, keep doing what you're doing while we wait for more details and thank you HK for taking the lead on it.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:25 am
by Jouhou
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspect ... s-outbreak

We're starting to see possible evidence of human to human transmission.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:10 pm
by frmrCapCadet
Some of the worry for a traveler:
If someone on your plane has a communicable disease you could be quarantined, this has happened to a member of our family, and I narrowly escaped it. SARs

If you were in a part of the world where the disease was happening hospitals in the US may quarantine you, hence scheduled surgeries cancelled - this one I escaped by only a few days.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:37 pm
by trpmb6
It is now multi-country: https://apnews.com/3845a158612c6cc556c8cb7b91f5d078

Man in Japan was treated for pneumonia after a visit to the Wuhan region. Tested positive for the virus.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:18 am
by Jouhou
The second death has occurred because of the virus: https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/16/hea ... -in-japan/

Wuhan expands screening and outbreak containment efforts: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/ ... 71876.html

Hong Kong expands illness reporting:
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/ ... angeable=0

Thailand increasing airport screening:
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/ge ... e-new-year

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Fri Jan 17, 2020 3:01 pm
by zakuivcustom
Jouhou wrote:
Wuhan expands screening and outbreak containment efforts: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/ ... 71876.html


Let see if this would increase the amount of case number in Wuhan greatly. B/c it's ridiculous that there are still only <50 cases in Wuhan with the virus seemingly spreading to multiple places around the world.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:36 pm
by trpmb6
zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Wuhan expands screening and outbreak containment efforts: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/ ... 71876.html


Let see if this would increase the amount of case number in Wuhan greatly. B/c it's ridiculous that there are still only <50 cases in Wuhan with the virus seemingly spreading to multiple places around the world.


Its notoriously difficult to pin down these types of things at the early stages. I say this as I'm sitting in a hospital with a 6 month old child who has RSV and pneumonia. Without serious symptoms progression they rarely due the test panel needed to identify the virus. Most adults would likely go without a visit to a doctor, and if they did their symptoms may only mimic a minor cold. It's the elderly and young children that we first see the numbers pop up for. Overtime as an outbreak spreads the screenings will become more common place. But by then it's too late.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:51 pm
by Jouhou
zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Wuhan expands screening and outbreak containment efforts: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/ ... 71876.html


Let see if this would increase the amount of case number in Wuhan greatly. B/c it's ridiculous that there are still only <50 cases in Wuhan with the virus seemingly spreading to multiple places around the world.


And of the travelers found outside of china, none went to the outbreak market in question. The one in Japan supposedly had contact with a known patient- meaning China isn't even doing a good job of contact tracing.

Also, second infected person confirmed in Thailand. http://outbreaknewstoday.com/novel-coro ... ase-60660/

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:31 pm
by zakuivcustom
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cdc-t ... latestnews

US (CDC) will begin screening pax from WUH at LAX, SFO, and JFK.

Out of the 3, SFO and JFK has non-stop to WUH, but LAX does have flights to most "secondary" (i.e. anything outside of the "Big 3+1" aka PEK/PKX, PVG, CAN, and SZX) cities in China, and is probably the #1 gateway.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:16 am
by 1989worstyear
Looks like SARS again. Goodbye JAL and ANA 767 fleets.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:02 pm
by zakuivcustom
1989worstyear wrote:
Looks like SARS again. Goodbye JAL and ANA 767 fleets.


As long as PRC doesn't hide how bad the outbreak is, it would not be as bad as SARS. But the first part is always questionable.

Anyway, suspected cases are also reported in Shanghai and Shenzhen:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... d-shenzhen

I seriously can't imagine how bad things can be with Chunyun along with the fact that Wuhan sits right in the middle of Chinese railway network.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:19 pm
by Jouhou
zakuivcustom wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Looks like SARS again. Goodbye JAL and ANA 767 fleets.


As long as PRC doesn't hide how bad the outbreak is, it would not be as bad as SARS. But the first part is always questionable.

Anyway, suspected cases are also reported in Shanghai and Shenzhen:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... d-shenzhen

I seriously can't imagine how bad things can be with Chunyun along with the fact that Wuhan sits right in the middle of Chinese railway network.


http://outbreaknewstoday.com/china-wuha ... ses-49056/

China finally reports 17 new cases in Wuhan. Were they intentionally not screening others in the city outside of people who went to the outbreak market to avoid panic? They'd be better off letting people panic so that they'd practice increased hygiene like wearing masks. It's now suspected it's much more widespread than China has revealed.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:15 am
by Cerecl
1989worstyear wrote:
Looks like SARS again. Goodbye JAL and ANA 767 fleets.


I think a bit of perspectives are in order here.

Viral respiratory tract epidermic happens EVERY YEAR. Many people die every year as a result. Coronavirus is a well known cause of viral RTI even before SARS came along. SARS was a big deal because it was easily transmitted and its associated mortality rate was much higher than your garden-variety flu. So far, only 2 people have unfortunately passed way from a confirmed case of 65 (possibly much higher), I am not convinced its virulence is worse than what we see every year. Just because the current novel virus is a coronavirus doesn't mean it is going be as bad as SARS.

It is VERY hard to properly diagnose everyone who was infected with the virus. Most people who contract the virus only exhibit mild symptoms and most likely won't choose to seek medical attention. For the same reason, the US screen scheme is probably going to miss 95% of the cases. Wuhan is a big city, and human interactions are almost impossible to completely trace (I think Chinese authority claimed they contact traced 600-odd people). Unless Wuhan closes its borders and checks/isolates everyone who had RTI symptoms, you are not going to stop the spread of the virus.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:49 am
by Jouhou
Cerecl wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
Looks like SARS again. Goodbye JAL and ANA 767 fleets.


I think a bit of perspectives are in order here.

Viral respiratory tract epidermic happens EVERY YEAR. Many people die every year as a result. Coronavirus is a well known cause of viral RTI even before SARS came along. SARS was a big deal because it was easily transmitted and its associated mortality rate was much higher than your garden-variety flu. So far, only 2 people have unfortunately passed way from a confirmed case of 65 (possibly much higher), I am not convinced its virulence is worse than what we see every year. Just because the current novel virus is a coronavirus doesn't mean it is going be as bad as SARS.

It is VERY hard to properly diagnose everyone who was infected with the virus. Most people who contract the virus only exhibit mild symptoms and most likely won't choose to seek medical attention. For the same reason, the US screen scheme is probably going to miss 95% of the cases. Wuhan is a big city, and human interactions are almost impossible to completely trace (I think Chinese authority claimed they contact traced 600-odd people). Unless Wuhan closes its borders and checks/isolates everyone who had RTI symptoms, you are not going to stop the spread of the virus.


SARS was stopped. Also, considering the seafood market outbreak caught attention like it did, It's seemingly causing more severe illness than the 4 common and less severe human coronaviruses. This one has genes tracing back to bat coronaviruses like MERS and SARS. These have genes that tend to cause severe illness in humans once they've adapted to infecting our cells. It's important to beat the viruses back before they fully adapt. Each person they infect they become better at infecting people and causing more severe illness.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:35 am
by Jouhou
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... ZI04G?il=0

Looks like outlets non-specific to Asia and infectious disease are now covering the story.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 6:09 am
by Cerecl
Jouhou wrote:
SARS was stopped. Also, considering the seafood market outbreak caught attention like it did, It's seemingly causing more severe illness than the 4 common and less severe human coronaviruses. This one has genes tracing back to bat coronaviruses like MERS and SARS. These have genes that tend to cause severe illness in humans once they've adapted to infecting our cells. It's important to beat the viruses back before they fully adapt. Each person they infect they become better at infecting people and causing more severe illness.


SARS stopped when it was summer time-likely one would expect. Not saying all the public health measures were not useful, but all the measure didn't stop virus from reaching 4 continents.

We have influenza A virus epidemic every year. Some years they are better, and other years they are not so good at killing people. The genetic shift and drift that determine virulence appear random rather than directional/adaptational. Again, genetic similarity to MERS/SARS does not mean that they are equally virulent. Mortality associated with SARS was 10% among confirmed cases. Clearly, mortality with this novel virus is much lower. For nearly every patient with viral RTI we looked after in hospital, they can give a history of a (several) friend(s)/family member(s)who also had the symptoms but didn't go see a doctor or didn't need admission. We don't even contact trace these people, so what is different here? There were probably thousands of people who have already come into contact with the novel virus, only a small proportion become sick enough to need hospital admission, and a small proportion of those succumb, just like any other viral RTI. As I said, screening procedures based on temperature and symptoms are going to miss the vast majority of cases. Perhaps more important to eliminate the source, which appears to have already been done.

Not quite sure why NH and JL's 767s were singled out, but I suspect they will probably survive this coronavirus outbreak pretty OK.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:20 am
by Jouhou
Cerecl wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
SARS was stopped. Also, considering the seafood market outbreak caught attention like it did, It's seemingly causing more severe illness than the 4 common and less severe human coronaviruses. This one has genes tracing back to bat coronaviruses like MERS and SARS. These have genes that tend to cause severe illness in humans once they've adapted to infecting our cells. It's important to beat the viruses back before they fully adapt. Each person they infect they become better at infecting people and causing more severe illness.


SARS stopped when it was summer time-likely one would expect. Not saying all the public health measures were not useful, but all the measure didn't stop virus from reaching 4 continents.

We have influenza A virus epidemic every year. Some years they are better, and other years they are not so good at killing people. The genetic shift and drift that determine virulence appear random rather than directional/adaptational. Again, genetic similarity to MERS/SARS does not mean that they are equally virulent. Mortality associated with SARS was 10% among confirmed cases. Clearly, mortality with this novel virus is much lower. For nearly every patient with viral RTI we looked after in hospital, they can give a history of a (several) friend(s)/family member(s)who also had the symptoms but didn't go see a doctor or didn't need admission. We don't even contact trace these people, so what is different here? There were probably thousands of people who have already come into contact with the novel virus, only a small proportion become sick enough to need hospital admission, and a small proportion of those succumb, just like any other viral RTI. As I said, screening procedures based on temperature and symptoms are going to miss the vast majority of cases. Perhaps more important to eliminate the source, which appears to have already been done.

Not quite sure why NH and JL's 767s were singled out, but I suspect they will probably survive this coronavirus outbreak pretty OK.


So you think we should just do nothing and let it adapt to humans until it does prove as serious? That's idiotic.

It's not the same lineage as the 4 common types. You can look up a chart of genetic relationships. The human coronaviruses should not be compared to this, although both OC43 and HKU1 are also betacoronaviruses, they are not very similar.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:04 pm
by Cerecl
Jouhou wrote:
So you think we should just do nothing and let it adapt to humans until it does prove as serious? That's idiotic.
It's not the same lineage as the 4 common types. You can look up a chart of genetic relationships. The human coronaviruses should not be compared to this, although both OC43 and HKU1 are also betacoronaviruses, they are not very similar.


What do you mean by adapt to humans? The virus has already acquired the ability to infect humans. If Imperial College's estimation is true, it has already infected >1000 humans. No one knows who these 1000 people are. What is your proposed action plan? Stop people moving in and out of Wuhan? Isolate anyone who has runny nose and sore throat? Why do you think what people do out of common sense anyway to avoid being infected by any other URTI virus is not sufficient in this case? As I said before, of course viruses will continue to mutate, but this is random rather than adaptational, otherwise every year influenza virus would be worse than the previous year's strain, which is not the case.

You keep on talking about genetics-this is all fine and good and nobody argues this virus is not novel. There is however one inescapable fact-Only 2 people have passed away from infections caused by this virus. Again, to provide a bit of perspectives-I lost 2 patients in one ward during one winter to viral RTI. This was in a 400-bed hospital in a regional centre with a catchment size of no more than 300K. Wuhan has at about 40 times that population. Clearly, most people who contract the virus don't become very sick, and most who become sick can eventually clear this virus. Whether it is 85%, 90% or 95% similar to SARS genetically therefore means little clinically. Remember genetically we are >96% identical to the Chimpanzees and 90% to common cats.

Someone mentioned Chunyun up this thread. You'd be extremely naive to think only this year do people contract viral RTIs on their journey.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:32 pm
by Jouhou
There's no English language articles yet but there are reports that there's 136 new cases, a new death, a confirmed case in Shenzhen, 2 cases at Beijing Daxing. I will post the articles when they come out in English.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:26 pm
by zakuivcustom
Jouhou wrote:
There's no English language articles yet but there are reports that there's 136 new cases, a new death, a confirmed case in Shenzhen, 2 cases at Beijing Daxing. I will post the articles when they come out in English.


Was about to post this.

Almost just as I expected - increase screening and boom, 100+ new reported cases in two days :banghead:

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:24 am
by Jouhou
zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
There's no English language articles yet but there are reports that there's 136 new cases, a new death, a confirmed case in Shenzhen, 2 cases at Beijing Daxing. I will post the articles when they come out in English.


Was about to post this.

Almost just as I expected - increase screening and boom, 100+ new reported cases in two days :banghead:


However it does seem the cases outside of Wuhan are still tracing back to Wuhan so there's a chance that tests are being sent out just in time to contain the outbreak. Despite what the other fellow in here is saying even if the disease only kills 1-2% of those infected (and treated in a hospital) if it's a respiratory illness that can spread rapidly it should be contained. That's still deadly enough for a disease to have a vaccine developed for it, and if the world could prevent let's say influenza A H1N1 from spreading across the world, it would. We don't need another infectious respiratory illness spreading across the world. We have too many already.

China should let its people get a little scared, like I said, so people step up their hygiene. You just don't want a global scare so bad that Asians are discriminated against in western countries, which they still have an opportunity to prevent by getting this under control.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:30 am
by Jouhou

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:26 am
by Jouhou
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1ZJ0C4

Situation growing rapidly now. South Korea is now the third country outside of china reporting a case. Also appears that China is not screening too aggressively if this lady was seen in a Chinese hospital in Wuhan already and they didn't test her.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:20 pm
by Jouhou
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Remember that effective surveillance is difficult. Half *ss measures and quarantines offer the perception of doing something useful and delay effective measures. There are sound scientific/medical ways of containing these sorts of outbreaks. Perhaps Jouhou could summarize them, here are a few:

Quick and accurate laboratory work to discover the source and the first victims of a new viral disease
Determine fatality rate, or permanent disablement rate
Likewise determining what the best medical treatment of those infected
Quickly determining if and how the disease can spread from person to person, and how it does it
If it does not easily spread person to person, there likely will not be an epidemic (?)
If it spreads via blood/only certain body fluids it may or may not be epidemic
If like Ebola it spreads by person to person by bodily contact easily it will be epidemic
Note: even with Ebola there were few cases of it spreading without bodily contact IIRC
If it spreads by coughing (rarer than movies and click bait imagine), air travel can be an important method of spreading
Track contacts of sick people, this can be expensive and take time, but is essential in understanding the disease.

As I mentioned earlier, son and I were traveling in SE Asia during SARS, there was a lot of half *ss measures, monitoring, and quarantines which did nothing to protect us and other people from the disease. Even at the earliest stages it was possible to assess what was accurate information and advice and what was mostly bull crap.


If they manage to contain this, someone should fund the development of vaccines to the common human coronaviruses- they could get some ROI from people who just are sick of getting sick and want protection from colds and "flu-like" illness (it's thought that people can be reinfected by the same virus because natural infection may not produce lasting immunity, similar to RSV) and people susceptible to being severely sickened by typically mild illness like the elderly and immunocompromised. I'd get it if it existed.

That way they'd have an existing knowledge base for rapid development and deployment of a vaccine for novel coronaviruses with methods that are tried and true. Then we would have an effective way of cornering it in and stopping it.

For now, with the deployment of testing for the novel coronaviruses it's starting to look like it might be too widespread to contain. The upside is that East Asia is not afraid to wear surgical masks in public. This is an effective way to reduce transmission of respiratory viruses if done right (single use disposable masks, frequent handwashing, hand washing after touching mask to remove and dispose of it). They may be able to stop it thanks too that cultural quirk. Right now it's thought to have limited human to human transmission by airborne droplets, which the masks are an effective barrier to.

Airport screening is proving to be an effective tool for at least keeping China honest about the scope of their outbreak at least. Also valuable information about transmission, giving countries early opportunities to research infected patients and getting their own samples of the virus. Also Canada sees it purely as a way to inform people what to do it they fall ill after returning from Wuhan.




Also, new cases confirmed in Guangdong, Beijing, and Its now been found in Shanghai as well.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1ZJ001

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:28 pm
by N14AZ
I guess it’s very unfortunate that so many people will travel now, at the beginning of the Chinese New Year holidays...

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:41 pm
by meecrob
So let me get this straight. Mortality rate is less than SARS, and SARS killed 774 people worldwide. For comparison, over 900 died worldwide in transport-category aviation crashes in 2003. I'm not saying "do nothing" about this, but some people are talking like this is the next Black Death. I might sound cold and callous, but there comes a point when the preventative measures are worse than the virus. From Wiki regarding Toronto's response: "The atmosphere of fear and uncertainty surrounding the outbreak resulted in staffing issues in area hospitals when healthcare workers elected to resign rather than risk exposure to SARS." So basically they scared healthcare workers so much they chose to stop helping people with ALL medical ailments, not just SARS, because try were told "the-sky-is-falling" hyperbole.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:50 pm
by Jouhou
meecrob wrote:
So let me get this straight. Mortality rate is less than SARS, and SARS killed 774 people worldwide. For comparison, over 900 died worldwide in transport-category aviation crashes in 2003. I'm not saying "do nothing" about this, but some people are talking like this is the next Black Death. I might sound cold and callous, but there comes a point when the preventative measures are worse than the virus. From Wiki regarding Toronto's response: "The atmosphere of fear and uncertainty surrounding the outbreak resulted in staffing issues in area hospitals when healthcare workers elected to resign rather than risk exposure to SARS." So basically they scared healthcare workers so much they chose to stop helping people with ALL medical ailments, not just SARS, because try were told "the-sky-is-falling" hyperbole.


A 1.5% mortality rate for a respiratory illness is bad, especially when that's after treatment at a hospital with the best a powerful country has to offer. What's 1.5% of 7.7 Billion?

It's not about "the sky is falling" it's about stopping it from permanently making it into circulation by containing it early. We don't need another disease going around with the same mortality rate as measles has in the unvaccinated.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:23 pm
by 1989worstyear
Cerecl wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
SARS was stopped. Also, considering the seafood market outbreak caught attention like it did, It's seemingly causing more severe illness than the 4 common and less severe human coronaviruses. This one has genes tracing back to bat coronaviruses like MERS and SARS. These have genes that tend to cause severe illness in humans once they've adapted to infecting our cells. It's important to beat the viruses back before they fully adapt. Each person they infect they become better at infecting people and causing more severe illness.


SARS stopped when it was summer time-likely one would expect. Not saying all the public health measures were not useful, but all the measure didn't stop virus from reaching 4 continents.

We have influenza A virus epidemic every year. Some years they are better, and other years they are not so good at killing people. The genetic shift and drift that determine virulence appear random rather than directional/adaptational. Again, genetic similarity to MERS/SARS does not mean that they are equally virulent. Mortality associated with SARS was 10% among confirmed cases. Clearly, mortality with this novel virus is much lower. For nearly every patient with viral RTI we looked after in hospital, they can give a history of a (several) friend(s)/family member(s)who also had the symptoms but didn't go see a doctor or didn't need admission. We don't even contact trace these people, so what is different here? There were probably thousands of people who have already come into contact with the novel virus, only a small proportion become sick enough to need hospital admission, and a small proportion of those succumb, just like any other viral RTI. As I said, screening procedures based on temperature and symptoms are going to miss the vast majority of cases. Perhaps more important to eliminate the source, which appears to have already been done.

Not quite sure why NH and JL's 767s were singled out, but I suspect they will probably survive this coronavirus outbreak pretty OK.


They were singled out because:

1) They're used for the Wuhan-Tokyo flights,
2) 1982 EIS means they'll be retired early regardless of build. As soon as the pax disappear they'll be gone.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:34 pm
by meecrob
I'm saying you have to balance containing this virus with reality because if you make too big an issue out of it, you will negatively impact significantly more people than you are helping. Also, if its not "the-sky-is-falling," then why are you rhetorically asking me what 1.5% of 7.7 billion is? Nobody with any modicum of medical knowledge would entertain a 100% infection rate. That's impossible.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:55 am
by Jouhou
meecrob wrote:
I'm saying you have to balance containing this virus with reality because if you make too big an issue out of it, you will negatively impact significantly more people than you are helping. Also, if its not "the-sky-is-falling," then why are you rhetorically asking me what 1.5% of 7.7 billion is? Nobody with any modicum of medical knowledge would entertain a 100% infection rate. That's impossible.


That's really not that impossible, if you consider that people born before a certain year (1957 I think?) Are considered immune to measles because surely they were infected with it (I personally think that's bullshit but that's the official stance on it).

You don't appear to have a modicum of medical knowledge though since you're calling calls for a containment response an over reaction. No, it's not. That's the sensible reaction. Stop it before it snowballs. Stop it in time that people like you sit around and think infectious diseases pose no threat. We've been mitigating pandemic threats, if not stopping them dead in their tracks, effectively for awhile now. And fools sit around and think pandemic preparedness is a waste of time because it's protected them for their whole lives.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:51 am
by zakuivcustom
Jouhou wrote:
meecrob wrote:
I'm saying you have to balance containing this virus with reality because if you make too big an issue out of it, you will negatively impact significantly more people than you are helping. Also, if its not "the-sky-is-falling," then why are you rhetorically asking me what 1.5% of 7.7 billion is? Nobody with any modicum of medical knowledge would entertain a 100% infection rate. That's impossible.


That's really not that impossible, if you consider that people born before a certain year (1957 I think?) Are considered immune to measles because surely they were infected with it (I personally think that's bullshit but that's the official stance on it).

You don't appear to have a modicum of medical knowledge though since you're calling calls for a containment response an over reaction. No, it's not. That's the sensible reaction. Stop it before it snowballs. Stop it in time that people like you sit around and think infectious diseases pose no threat. We've been mitigating pandemic threats, if not stopping them dead in their tracks, effectively for awhile now. And fools sit around and think pandemic preparedness is a waste of time because it's protected them for their whole lives.


(Will try to find an English source)
China officially designate the virus as "Type B infectious disease" while taking measures similar to "Type A infectious disease" i.e. forced quarantine, to try to stop the disease from snowballing further, on the 20th.

They are definitely worried about Chunyun also - with the possibility of the disease spreading to more cities around China.

IMHO at least mainland China finally take some measures, even though HK had quarantine suspected case since the 8th. It can still get ugly, though.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:18 am
by meecrob
Jouhou wrote:
meecrob wrote:
I'm saying you have to balance containing this virus with reality because if you make too big an issue out of it, you will negatively impact significantly more people than you are helping. Also, if its not "the-sky-is-falling," then why are you rhetorically asking me what 1.5% of 7.7 billion is? Nobody with any modicum of medical knowledge would entertain a 100% infection rate. That's impossible.


That's really not that impossible, if you consider that people born before a certain year (1957 I think?) Are considered immune to measles because surely they were infected with it (I personally think that's bullshit but that's the official stance on it).

You don't appear to have a modicum of medical knowledge though since you're calling calls for a containment response an over reaction. No, it's not. That's the sensible reaction. Stop it before it snowballs. Stop it in time that people like you sit around and think infectious diseases pose no threat. We've been mitigating pandemic threats, if not stopping them dead in their tracks, effectively for awhile now. And fools sit around and think pandemic preparedness is a waste of time because it's protected them for their whole lives.


Seriously? I don't mind debating, but you have to at least try to read what I wrote. I said you have to balance the response. You read that as I am saying containing it is an over-reaction. Last time I checked, having a balanced approach was the opposite of an over-reaction.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:15 am
by Jouhou
zakuivcustom wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
meecrob wrote:
I'm saying you have to balance containing this virus with reality because if you make too big an issue out of it, you will negatively impact significantly more people than you are helping. Also, if its not "the-sky-is-falling," then why are you rhetorically asking me what 1.5% of 7.7 billion is? Nobody with any modicum of medical knowledge would entertain a 100% infection rate. That's impossible.


That's really not that impossible, if you consider that people born before a certain year (1957 I think?) Are considered immune to measles because surely they were infected with it (I personally think that's bullshit but that's the official stance on it).

You don't appear to have a modicum of medical knowledge though since you're calling calls for a containment response an over reaction. No, it's not. That's the sensible reaction. Stop it before it snowballs. Stop it in time that people like you sit around and think infectious diseases pose no threat. We've been mitigating pandemic threats, if not stopping them dead in their tracks, effectively for awhile now. And fools sit around and think pandemic preparedness is a waste of time because it's protected them for their whole lives.


(Will try to find an English source)
China officially designate the virus as "Type B infectious disease" while taking measures similar to "Type A infectious disease" i.e. forced quarantine, to try to stop the disease from snowballing further, on the 20th.

They are definitely worried about Chunyun also - with the possibility of the disease spreading to more cities around China.

IMHO at least mainland China finally take some measures, even though HK had quarantine suspected case since the 8th. It can still get ugly, though.


I see it a bit like PS752. This community immediately saw the Iranian government's attribution of the crash to a mechanical failure right after it happened as suspect, and the video of the aircraft coming down as a fireball as suspect. Their citizens too saw it as suspicious along with other mounting evidence- the government got forced into being honest.

Likewise, the way the Chinese government was handling this outbreak and their attempts to minimize it and silence rumors was immediately suspicious to both the community of infectious disease professionals and enthusiasts and a SARS-traumatized Hong Kong. We've seen that pattern of lies before. Now, once again, a government has been pressured to be honest and is obligated to do their due diligence to contain the mess before it gets out of hand. The whole world is watching now. Every country, rich and poor, is impacted by respiratory pathogens.


meecrob wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
meecrob wrote:
I'm saying you have to balance containing this virus with reality because if you make too big an issue out of it, you will negatively impact significantly more people than you are helping. Also, if its not "the-sky-is-falling," then why are you rhetorically asking me what 1.5% of 7.7 billion is? Nobody with any modicum of medical knowledge would entertain a 100% infection rate. That's impossible.


That's really not that impossible, if you consider that people born before a certain year (1957 I think?) Are considered immune to measles because surely they were infected with it (I personally think that's bullshit but that's the official stance on it).

You don't appear to have a modicum of medical knowledge though since you're calling calls for a containment response an over reaction. No, it's not. That's the sensible reaction. Stop it before it snowballs. Stop it in time that people like you sit around and think infectious diseases pose no threat. We've been mitigating pandemic threats, if not stopping them dead in their tracks, effectively for awhile now. And fools sit around and think pandemic preparedness is a waste of time because it's protected them for their whole lives.


Seriously? I don't mind debating, but you have to at least try to read what I wrote. I said you have to balance the response. You read that as I am saying containing it is an over-reaction. Last time I checked, having a balanced approach was the opposite of an over-reaction.


I started this thread because it seemed at the time only the public of Hong Kong was fully aware of the looming threat and western media is only just now covering it even though Its been known to be a serious concern since new years day. I don't think we're panicking, we're actually taking it way too lightly. Post-SARS research on coronaviruses carried by bats in China revealed that they carry many that can readily infect humans, that many viruses carried have the same genes that made SARS so nasty, and that many of those viruses are also only 1-2 mutations away from becoming extremely virulent. Which is exactly why I was placing emphasis on needing to contain it before it adapts to humans, aka acquires those dangerous mutations previously identified by researchers.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:36 am
by Jouhou
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1ZK0SY

Confirmed cases up to 291 in China. 4 Deaths.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:04 am
by DLFREEBIRD
Australia now screening after four countries reported cases in Japan, South Korea, Thailand and of course China.

ttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/world ... ravel.html

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:07 am
by Jouhou
Andddd death toll just rose to 6. I wonder if the mutation I was worried about happened.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... ZK0X1?il=0

Taiwan reports first confirmed infection:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1ZK0ZP

According to Chinese Language news, it's now confirmed in Zhejiang province as well. Any hopes I had for containment are dashed I think.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:05 am
by 1989worstyear
Jouhou wrote:
Andddd death toll just rose to 6. I wonder if the mutation I was worried about happened.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... ZK0X1?il=0

Taiwan reports first confirmed infection:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1ZK0ZP

According to Chinese Language news, it's now confirmed in Zhejiang province as well. Any hopes I had for containment are dashed I think.


Yep - regardless of whether or not I'll be as bad as SARS it's already looking like it'll have the same impact on the global economy.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/g ... 5D26CC31A3

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:08 am
by Jouhou
1989worstyear wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
Andddd death toll just rose to 6. I wonder if the mutation I was worried about happened.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... ZK0X1?il=0

Taiwan reports first confirmed infection:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN1ZK0ZP

According to Chinese Language news, it's now confirmed in Zhejiang province as well. Any hopes I had for containment are dashed I think.


Yep - regardless of whether or not I'll be as bad as SARS it's already looking like it'll have the same impact on the global economy.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/g ... 5D26CC31A3


Chinese people didn't travel outside of their country so much during SARS either. It's getting scattered around the globe now.

Re: Novel Coronavirus outbreak

Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:29 pm
by zakuivcustom
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/21/health/w ... index.html

First reported case in US in Washington State.

Jouhou wrote:
Chinese people didn't travel outside of their country so much during SARS either. It's getting scattered around the globe now.


Yet SARS still spread quite far globally, with Canada hit particularly hard.

Japan would be the place that need to prepare for any outbreak, though - a lot less Chinese tourists in Japan back in 2003, while Japan would be the #1 foreign country for Chinese tourists in the upcoming CNY holiday.