apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:50 pm

With Iowa a couple of weeks away I wanted to start a thread to discuss the Democratic nominating process starting with Iowa.

On the topic of Iowa, the four frontrunners are Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Warren. If you believe polling, all of them will enter the caucus with the 15 percent minimum to be considered viable. The question becomes, when the Supporters for the other candidates are reorganized, how are the going to go? My money would be on Sanders and Biden, since Sanders seems to be the frontrunner most concerned about Climate Change (Steyer is running his campaign on this), and most of the other candidates are more moderate which would lean toward Biden. So my prediction would be that either Sanders or Biden wins Iowa, the other finishes second, Buttigieg finishes ahead of Warren with the Impeachment trial being the reason as Buttigieg can campaign more than Warren.

New Hampshire is interesting in that both Sanders and Warren come from neighboring states. Sanders looks to be ahead in New Hampshire right now. I would think this is a must win for Warren if she wants any momentum at all out of the early states.

South Carolina is Biden's to lose as no other frontrunner has been able to make many inroads into the Black Community in the South that is crucial to winning a democratic contest in the South. The question is who finishes second, because delegates still matter.

Nevada is going to be very interesting. It is the last Caucus state left as everyone else has gone to a primary. The thing to watch here is the Culinary Workers Union, which is a very powerful organization in Nevada and very influential in state Democratic politics, has flat out told Bernie and CO, "Do not mess with our health care". That is not going to help Sanders or Warren. With a huge latino vote, Buttigieg could have an opening here, and I think this is a perfect place for him to come up with a breakthrough win. One thing to note though is Harry Reid still has a lot of influence here and he and Biden served for years together.


After the first four states I would expect the leaderboard in the delegate count to look something like this.

1. Biden
2. Sanders
3. Buttigieg
4. Warren

Super Tuesday would come after Nevada. Super Tuesday would be the first test of Bloomberg to see if all the money he has spent on TV ads will actually pay off. Warren should win MA easily, Sanders should win VT easily, Maine is a toss up. California is the big prize and who knows which way California goes in this. There are a lot of red states voting as well, which will help Biden. Texas is another interesting state to watch. If Warren doesn't get much outside of MA, she is done. I suspect Klobuchar would be out prior to super Tuesday, but she could stay in long enough to win Minnesota, and thus getting some influence at the Convention.

I still think looking at everything that Biden is still the man to beat. I do think he can beat Trump.

One other thing that has been talked about is a brokered convention. Because of the proportional delegate system, it is possible that no one has a majority of delegates going into Milwaukee. This would lead to a brokered convention. I don't see it happening because I think Biden will win the nomination outright. But if it does get to Milwaukee as a brokered convention, who knows? We may yet end up with a nominee that no one is expecting. And I fully expect Trump to hold a rally at UWM Panther arena just across town while this convention is going on.
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2130
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:27 pm

Tulsi Gabbard Files $50 Million Defamation Lawsuit Against Hillary Clinton For Pushing ‘Conspiracy Theory’ About Her

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... about-her/

The lawsuit was filed on Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. It asserts that Clinton “carelessly and recklessly impugned” Gabbard’s reputation when she said that the candidate is “the favorite of the Russians” on a podcast.

Clinton’s claim dominated the news cycle and made headlines in nearly every news publication. Gabbard’s complaint says that she intends to hold Clinton and other “political elites” accountable for “distorting the truth in the middle of a critical Presidential election.”

The lawsuit lays out Gabbard’s support for Bernie Sanders in 2016, which caused her to step down from her role as the vice chair of the DNC, and says that it has left Clinton with animus towards her.

Love to watch the fighting amongst those on the inside track of the Dem Party, and those on the outside.

Another one to watch is Bernie and the Young Turks vs. Biden over whether the Biden extended family has gotten wealthy by Uncle Joe's political influence as a Senator and as VP...
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7842
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:56 pm

apodino wrote:
It is the last Caucus state left as everyone else has gone to a primary.

Incorrect. Wyoming never switched to a primary so WY is also a caucus state, though it's not like it's a big prize or a target for any Democrat. And if we're gonna get technical, the territories (aside from PR and DC) also hold caucuses so for now, IA, NV, WY, and 4/6 territories will have a caucus.

apodino wrote:
After the first four states I would expect the leaderboard in the delegate count to look something like this.

1. Biden
2. Sanders
3. Buttigieg
4. Warren

I expect Buttigieg and Warren to be pretty much at the same delegate count. Super Tuesday will likely define who is the front runner. But something tells me that, unless the race is narrowed down by March, this will be the first contested convention due to the proportional allocation of delegates. And THIS is where the progressive wing of the party will have wished that they had not made the changes to the rules because here, the superdelegates WILL count. If they were able to woo the superdelegates BEFORE, then maybe the progressive wing would have had a shot.

Current rules dictate that if the number of pledged delegates of a candidate is over 50% of the total count, superdelegates' votes won't matter (they can't make a difference). On the second round and any that come after, all delegates become unpledged and it's a free-for-all. Considering that it's likely Biden won't secure the majority of pledged delegates if this drags on until June, superdelegates may be what makes the difference. On the first round, Biden will come up short, but assuming he has enough supderdelegate support and none of his delegates switch, he can win on the second round.

And if this happens, I can see the progressive wing getting even more angry with the DNC because how dare delegates become unpledged?
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
N14AZ
Posts: 4070
Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:58 pm

apodino wrote:
Super Tuesday would be the first test of Bloomberg to see if all the money he has spent on TV ads will actually pay off.

Will be interesting to see how this Bloomberg-thing will work out. That’s definitely something new.
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:30 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
apodino wrote:
It is the last Caucus state left as everyone else has gone to a primary.

Incorrect. Wyoming never switched to a primary so WY is also a caucus state, though it's not like it's a big prize or a target for any Democrat. And if we're gonna get technical, the territories (aside from PR and DC) also hold caucuses so for now, IA, NV, WY, and 4/6 territories will have a caucus.

apodino wrote:
After the first four states I would expect the leaderboard in the delegate count to look something like this.

1. Biden
2. Sanders
3. Buttigieg
4. Warren

I expect Buttigieg and Warren to be pretty much at the same delegate count. Super Tuesday will likely define who is the front runner. But something tells me that, unless the race is narrowed down by March, this will be the first contested convention due to the proportional allocation of delegates. And THIS is where the progressive wing of the party will have wished that they had not made the changes to the rules because here, the superdelegates WILL count. If they were able to woo the superdelegates BEFORE, then maybe the progressive wing would have had a shot.

Current rules dictate that if the number of pledged delegates of a candidate is over 50% of the total count, superdelegates' votes won't matter (they can't make a difference). On the second round and any that come after, all delegates become unpledged and it's a free-for-all. Considering that it's likely Biden won't secure the majority of pledged delegates if this drags on until June, superdelegates may be what makes the difference. On the first round, Biden will come up short, but assuming he has enough supderdelegate support and none of his delegates switch, he can win on the second round.

And if this happens, I can see the progressive wing getting even more angry with the DNC because how dare delegates become unpledged?

Excellent post. What you say is exactly what could happen. Some have speculated if you get to a brokered convention that somehow Michelle Obama could be a compromise nominee, but I don't see that.

I do stand corrected on Wyoming, and the other Caucuses but no one really talks much about those. One thing about the SuperDelegates this time is there are some much more progressive names that will be superdelegates this time than four years ago. People like AOC, Omar, Tilab, etc would never have supported Hillary four years ago, and would have supported Sanders (Until Hillary became the nominee that is). So those people would likely be for Warren or Sanders, and then the more establishment wing of the party would support Biden or Buttigieg most likely. If the convention would become brokered, I would not expect any of the candidates with accrued delegates to release them prior to the first ballot. This is why I don't see Klobuchar dropping out until after MN.

I vote in the TX primary, which is a super Tuesday state, and I am still trying to make up my mind on who to vote for. I thought about voting for Weld in the GOP primary as a protest vote against Trump, but it wont really affect anything. So I will vote in the Democratic primary instead. I wont vote for Sanders, Warren or Klobuchar (Sanders and Warren are too far left for me, and Klobuchar has a history of treating her staff miserably, plus IMO she enabled Tom Petters to scam investors with a Ponzi Scheme for a lot longer than he should have been able to by looking the other way as an Attorney General when the evidence was clear). I like Gabbard a lot, but she likely wont be a factor. My vote will either be Biden, Buttigieg, or Bloomberg. I will wait to see what happens in the early states to see which way I may go.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7842
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:28 pm

apodino wrote:
Some have speculated if you get to a brokered convention that somehow Michelle Obama could be a compromise nominee, but I don't see that.

I don't think Michelle Obama is interested. And I wouldn't vote for her either. At the very least, if she were a Rep or Senator, then maybe. An admirable FLOTUS, but being FLOTUS is not enough.

apodino wrote:
I do stand corrected on Wyoming, and the other Caucuses but no one really talks much about those. One thing about the SuperDelegates this time is there are some much more progressive names that will be superdelegates this time than four years ago. People like AOC, Omar, Tilab, etc would never have supported Hillary four years ago, and would have supported Sanders (Until Hillary became the nominee that is). So those people would likely be for Warren or Sanders, and then the more establishment wing of the party would support Biden or Buttigieg most likely. If the convention would become brokered, I would not expect any of the candidates with accrued delegates to release them prior to the first ballot. This is why I don't see Klobuchar dropping out until after MN.

I have no idea why WY and the territories decided to retain a caucus. Perhaps because they have small populations, it's easier to handle (and IA and NV have a long history of caucuses so they're experts).

While it is true that there are more progressive superdelegates, the progressive wing of the party is still vastly outnumbered in Congress (heck, I think just the red district Democrats outnumber the progressive ones). They'll pout and whine and claim the process is rigged, but the process has been clear since they demanded rule changes. The thing that has irked me about the progressive wing is that they hate when a celebrity or politician endorses a candidate (because that's influencing the vote)...up until a celebrity or politician endorses one of their own (then, it's a cause of celebration because there's momentum).

apodino wrote:
I vote in the TX primary, which is a super Tuesday state, and I am still trying to make up my mind on who to vote for.

I vote the week after, though because WA is a vote-by-mail state, odds are my ballot will arrive by the time SC is wrapping up its vote. I'm still leaning towards Buttigieg but I'll wait until the day before mail my ballot. If Buttigieg decides to drop out over the weekend after dismal Super Tuesday results, I have to regroup and see who to vote for. WaPo's quiz says I align with Biden (16/20), Bloomberg (15/20), Klobuchar (14/20), and Buttigieg, Yang, and Steyer (13/20), but only Biden has a real shot in my book. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
SanDiegoLover
Posts: 431
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2016 12:24 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:51 am

I’m going to vote D no matter who the nominee is, even if it’s a stale loaf of bread. But Biden won’t win against Trump. I don’t understand why y’all keep making this awful error. When the voters merely pick the candidate that can best beat the sitting POTUS, they LOSE! That middling, inoffensive, candidate inspires no one to actually come out to vote. Democrats and Republicans keep making this mistake over, and over, and over again. John Kerry, Mitt Romney, and Bob Dole are perfect examples of this.

If you pick Biden, it will be a low turnout election and Democrats will lose up and down the ticket. Young voters, new voters, and disenfranchised voters will not show up to vote for “more of the same”.

And FFS why do Republicans think Michelle Obama would ever run for POTUS?!?! Breitbart is running that conspiracy at least twice per month. She has been very clear she despises the White House. Barack admits the Presidency was hard on their marriage and family. Michelle has never once been coy about this. She always says “hell no”! Michelle is a fantastic public speaker and campaign surrogate but she’s just like Laura Bush, she has ZERO interest in running for office. None!
 
Dieuwer
Posts: 1826
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:27 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:52 am

DIRECTFLT wrote:
Tulsi Gabbard Files $50 Million Defamation Lawsuit Against Hillary Clinton For Pushing ‘Conspiracy Theory’ About Her

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... about-her/

The lawsuit was filed on Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. It asserts that Clinton “carelessly and recklessly impugned” Gabbard’s reputation when she said that the candidate is “the favorite of the Russians” on a podcast.


Will probably be dismissed.
 
SanDiegoLover
Posts: 431
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2016 12:24 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Fri Jan 24, 2020 12:57 am

Dieuwer wrote:
DIRECTFLT wrote:
Tulsi Gabbard Files $50 Million Defamation Lawsuit Against Hillary Clinton For Pushing ‘Conspiracy Theory’ About Her

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... about-her/

The lawsuit was filed on Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. It asserts that Clinton “carelessly and recklessly impugned” Gabbard’s reputation when she said that the candidate is “the favorite of the Russians” on a podcast.


Will probably be dismissed.


Most certainly. First Tulsi is a public figure and there’s no way she has actual damages of $50 million. LOL!

This is a money-making scheme from the RussIan asset. She’ll dupe Breitbarters into sending her money and support, simply because she’s “standing up” to the Clintons.
 
jetero
Posts: 4673
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:45 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:10 am

SanDiegoLover wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
DIRECTFLT wrote:
Tulsi Gabbard Files $50 Million Defamation Lawsuit Against Hillary Clinton For Pushing ‘Conspiracy Theory’ About Her

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... about-her/

The lawsuit was filed on Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. It asserts that Clinton “carelessly and recklessly impugned” Gabbard’s reputation when she said that the candidate is “the favorite of the Russians” on a podcast.


Will probably be dismissed.


Most certainly. First Tulsi is a public figure and there’s no way she has actual damages of $50 million. LOL!

This is a money-making scheme from the RussIan asset. She’ll dupe Breitbarters into sending her money and support, simply because she’s “standing up” to the Clintons.


First she’s a public figure?! How about first IT’S 100% true?

:rotfl:
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 10553
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Fri Jan 24, 2020 5:21 am

apodino wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
apodino wrote:
It is the last Caucus state left as everyone else has gone to a primary.

Incorrect. Wyoming never switched to a primary so WY is also a caucus state, though it's not like it's a big prize or a target for any Democrat. And if we're gonna get technical, the territories (aside from PR and DC) also hold caucuses so for now, IA, NV, WY, and 4/6 territories will have a caucus.

apodino wrote:
After the first four states I would expect the leaderboard in the delegate count to look something like this.

1. Biden
2. Sanders
3. Buttigieg
4. Warren

I expect Buttigieg and Warren to be pretty much at the same delegate count. Super Tuesday will likely define who is the front runner. But something tells me that, unless the race is narrowed down by March, this will be the first contested convention due to the proportional allocation of delegates. And THIS is where the progressive wing of the party will have wished that they had not made the changes to the rules because here, the superdelegates WILL count. If they were able to woo the superdelegates BEFORE, then maybe the progressive wing would have had a shot.

Current rules dictate that if the number of pledged delegates of a candidate is over 50% of the total count, superdelegates' votes won't matter (they can't make a difference). On the second round and any that come after, all delegates become unpledged and it's a free-for-all. Considering that it's likely Biden won't secure the majority of pledged delegates if this drags on until June, superdelegates may be what makes the difference. On the first round, Biden will come up short, but assuming he has enough supderdelegate support and none of his delegates switch, he can win on the second round.

And if this happens, I can see the progressive wing getting even more angry with the DNC because how dare delegates become unpledged?

Excellent post. What you say is exactly what could happen. Some have speculated if you get to a brokered convention that somehow Michelle Obama could be a compromise nominee, but I don't see that.

I do stand corrected on Wyoming, and the other Caucuses but no one really talks much about those. One thing about the SuperDelegates this time is there are some much more progressive names that will be superdelegates this time than four years ago. People like AOC, Omar, Tilab, etc would never have supported Hillary four years ago, and would have supported Sanders (Until Hillary became the nominee that is). So those people would likely be for Warren or Sanders, and then the more establishment wing of the party would support Biden or Buttigieg most likely. If the convention would become brokered, I would not expect any of the candidates with accrued delegates to release them prior to the first ballot. This is why I don't see Klobuchar dropping out until after MN.

I vote in the TX primary, which is a super Tuesday state, and I am still trying to make up my mind on who to vote for. I thought about voting for Weld in the GOP primary as a protest vote against Trump, but it wont really affect anything. So I will vote in the Democratic primary instead. I wont vote for Sanders, Warren or Klobuchar (Sanders and Warren are too far left for me, and Klobuchar has a history of treating her staff miserably, plus IMO she enabled Tom Petters to scam investors with a Ponzi Scheme for a lot longer than he should have been able to by looking the other way as an Attorney General when the evidence was clear). I like Gabbard a lot, but she likely wont be a factor. My vote will either be Biden, Buttigieg, or Bloomberg. I will wait to see what happens in the early states to see which way I may go.


Things have been too close to call in a lot of primary states (notable exception of SC) to date - things will change a lot if Sanders takes CA on Super Tuesday. Biden can’t afford to take the Golden State for granted.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Airstud
Posts: 4863
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2000 11:57 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Fri Jan 24, 2020 6:27 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
NV will have a caucus.


Cactus caucus.
Pancakes are delicious.
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:40 pm

(MODs...this was started as an all encompassing thread...the Iowa debacle has its own thread)

Ok....the Iowa mess has its own thread but here are my observations so far going into New Hampshire:

Buttigieg got some momentum out of Iowa, which he needed since the next three states don't look so good for him.
Sanders clearly is becoming the progressive guy in the race. Warren is not polling well in New Hampshire, and although I think she makes it to Super Tuesday, I don't see how she either takes support from Bernie or wins over the more moderate wing of the party.
Biden is in serious trouble. He has to finish second in New Hampshire to start. He should win South Carolina but if its not as strong as he should be, he may really need a good super Tuesday to go forward.
Bloomberg I believe will become a factor later on. You cannot watch a YouTube video or anything on TV without seeing a Bloomberg ad. If Biden stumbles, Bloomberg is in a position to grab the support that Biden had.
Klobuchar is a non factor despite her Iowa speech. She could win Minnesota on Super Tuesday though. If the Super Tuesday results go all over the place, and Klobuchar wins Minnesota then she would be in a very strong deal making position assuming this thing ends up at the convention.

At the moment here are my power rankings.

1. Sanders
2. Buttigieg
3. Warren
4. Bloomberg
5. Biden
6. Klobuchar
7. Yang
8. Patrick
9. Steyer
10. Gabbard
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2629
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:31 pm

apodino wrote:
(MODs...this was started as an all encompassing thread...the Iowa debacle has its own thread)

Ok....the Iowa mess has its own thread but here are my observations so far going into New Hampshire:

Buttigieg got some momentum out of Iowa, which he needed since the next three states don't look so good for him.
Sanders clearly is becoming the progressive guy in the race. Warren is not polling well in New Hampshire, and although I think she makes it to Super Tuesday, I don't see how she either takes support from Bernie or wins over the more moderate wing of the party.
Biden is in serious trouble. He has to finish second in New Hampshire to start. He should win South Carolina but if its not as strong as he should be, he may really need a good super Tuesday to go forward.
Bloomberg I believe will become a factor later on. You cannot watch a YouTube video or anything on TV without seeing a Bloomberg ad. If Biden stumbles, Bloomberg is in a position to grab the support that Biden had.
Klobuchar is a non factor despite her Iowa speech. She could win Minnesota on Super Tuesday though. If the Super Tuesday results go all over the place, and Klobuchar wins Minnesota then she would be in a very strong deal making position assuming this thing ends up at the convention.

At the moment here are my power rankings.

1. Sanders
2. Buttigieg
3. Warren
4. Bloomberg
5. Biden
6. Klobuchar
7. Yang
8. Patrick
9. Steyer
10. Gabbard

Dems are screwed and we'll get a Trump reelection if Bernie gets the nomination. The Iowa caucuses were a mess, but showed the moderates clobbering the Bernie/Elizabeth socialist duo.
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:44 pm

Warren is in even bigger trouble than I realized just yesterday. Apparently several minority women members of her Nevada staff were mistreated and have resigned from Warren's campaign. Warren has now come out and admitted this is true. This is going to kill her in Nevada, and also South Carolina after that. If she underperforms in New Hampshire I think she is toast.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/06/elizabeth-warren-campaign-nevada-111595

Bernie clearly has the progressive wing of the party all but locked up. The question becomes who the rest of the party lines up behind, because there is clearly a never Bernie part of the party which includes Hillary Clinton. Buttigieg seems to be leading on that front. However, as was mentioned in another thread, he has very little support in the black community at the moment, and there is still a large anti-gay portion of the black community out there.

I was looking at the states coming up including super Tuesday. Buttigieg appears to have won Iowa with Sanders a close second. Warren third and Biden fourth. New Hampshire right now has Sanders with a commanding lead, but Buttigieg has surged in the polling since Iowa. There is a debate tonight, and while that might not influence many people, remember four years ago it was this very debate where Chris Christie nailed Marco Rubio and all but ended Rubio's campaign. So based on what I have seen so far, here are the states coming up, with the number of delegates and the likely winner.

1. Iowa 41 (Buttigieg)
2. New Hampshire 24 (Sanders)
3. Nevada 36 (Sanders)
4. South Carolina 54 (Biden)
5. Alabama 52 (Biden)
6. American Samoa 6 (Biden?)
7. Arkansas 31 (Biden)
8. California 415 (Sanders)
9. Colorado 67 (Buttigieg)
10. Democrats Abroad 13 (Sanders)
11. Maine 24 (Warren)
12. Massachusetts 91 (Warren)
13. Minnesota 75 (Klobuchar)
14. North Carolina 110 (Biden)
15. Oklahoma 37 (Buttigieg)
16. Tennessee 64 (Biden)
17. Texas 228 (Buttigieg)
18. Utah 29 (Bloomberg)
19. Vermont 16 (Sanders)
20. Virginia 99 (Biden)

So my estimate on delegates after super Tuesday is as follows.

1. Sanders 400
2. Buttigieg 350
3. Biden 300
4. Bloomberg 200
5. Warren 160
6. Klobuchar 100

If this all happens, Warren and Klobuchar probably get out after super Tuesday but hold on to their delegates since no one else will be close to the near 2000 required for the nomination. It could be that the last primary to take place, the US Virgin Islands, becomes very important, and also the superdelegates may come into play down the road. We shall see.
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:48 pm

As an add on to my last post...Sanders wins if the California rules stay as they are now. There is a bill being fast tracked through the assembly to change that where you can change your registration at the poling place, which would bring a lot more independents to the ballot. Gavin Newsome did veto a similar bill last year but if this passes and is signed into law, this would be effective for the super Tuesday primary. That will help Buttigieg, Biden and Bloomberg.
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2130
Joined: Sat Jan 02, 2010 3:00 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:49 am

The Young Turks riff on Pete Buttigieg after his Debate performance

https://youtu.be/UYW0CBo6y0I
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
User avatar
seb146
Posts: 21454
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:58 pm

Can we mention MAGA fans and trolls clogging the Iowa caucus phone lines?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... ays-report
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/c ... s-n1131521

These people keep talking about free and fair elections and how much they love democracy but they do the exact opposite every time. You MAGA fans have your candidate. Let us decide ours. If you don't like your candidate, use the democratic process you all claim to love and pick a new candidate. Otherwise, leave us alone. You don't get to pick your candidate AND ours. That is what they do in Russia.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
FTMCPIUS
Posts: 252
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:10 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:09 pm

seb146 wrote:
Can we mention MAGA fans and trolls clogging the Iowa caucus phone lines?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... ays-report
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/c ... s-n1131521

These people keep talking about free and fair elections and how much they love democracy but they do the exact opposite every time. You MAGA fans have your candidate. Let us decide ours. If you don't like your candidate, use the democratic process you all claim to love and pick a new candidate. Otherwise, leave us alone. You don't get to pick your candidate AND ours. That is what they do in Russia.

I'm not a MAGA fan, and do not condone what was done in Iowa, yet there is this: https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/202 ... tion-tent/. Not exactly the same scenario, but at least the Iowa callers weren't trying to kill anyone.
 
User avatar
seb146
Posts: 21454
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:07 pm

FTMCPIUS wrote:
seb146 wrote:
Can we mention MAGA fans and trolls clogging the Iowa caucus phone lines?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... ays-report
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/c ... s-n1131521

These people keep talking about free and fair elections and how much they love democracy but they do the exact opposite every time. You MAGA fans have your candidate. Let us decide ours. If you don't like your candidate, use the democratic process you all claim to love and pick a new candidate. Otherwise, leave us alone. You don't get to pick your candidate AND ours. That is what they do in Russia.

I'm not a MAGA fan, and do not condone what was done in Iowa, yet there is this: https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/202 ... tion-tent/. Not exactly the same scenario, but at least the Iowa callers weren't trying to kill anyone.


No one knows if the attack was politically motivated or not so your "both sides do it" argument falls flat yet again. Not only that, but a person who was interviewed mentioned the "toxic environment" of politics. Guess which party started that? Hint: their name starts with an R. I just wonder how many of those voter registration cards will be lost because the person checked "Democrat" or "other" for their party affiliation?

https://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Po ... d=17521278
https://www.thenation.com/article/archi ... m-florida/

Driving a van into a voter registration tent has nothing at all to do with trying to mess up the opposition party's voting.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:44 pm

Seb the Iowa deal with the Trump supporters may have slowed down the reporting but with the paper trails out there it in no way affected the vote total assuming it’s true. The only report on this that I have seen anywhere was from Rachel Maddow who is a known conspiracy theorist and this wasn’t reported anywhere else, even by the huff post. If you watch the YouTube videos put out by the hill (a progressive news site that I have gained a lot of respect for this week) even most progressives feel that the Democratic establishment is trying to rig this against Sanders again.

As to your point about republicans staying out of the Democratic nominating process. I agree that in Iowa this should happen based on the Caucus rules. However, many of the primary states including New Hampshire on Tuesday are open primary states, meaning regardless of affiliation you can request whatever primary ballot you want. You better believe that there will be republicans voting in the Democratic primary on Tuesday. Heck even California is trying to change the rules to create an open primary.
 
FTMCPIUS
Posts: 252
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:10 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:39 pm

seb146 wrote:
FTMCPIUS wrote:
seb146 wrote:
Can we mention MAGA fans and trolls clogging the Iowa caucus phone lines?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... ays-report
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/c ... s-n1131521

These people keep talking about free and fair elections and how much they love democracy but they do the exact opposite every time. You MAGA fans have your candidate. Let us decide ours. If you don't like your candidate, use the democratic process you all claim to love and pick a new candidate. Otherwise, leave us alone. You don't get to pick your candidate AND ours. That is what they do in Russia.

I'm not a MAGA fan, and do not condone what was done in Iowa, yet there is this: https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/202 ... tion-tent/. Not exactly the same scenario, but at least the Iowa callers weren't trying to kill anyone.


No one knows if the attack was politically motivated or not so your "both sides do it" argument falls flat yet again. Not only that, but a person who was interviewed mentioned the "toxic environment" of politics. Guess which party started that? Hint: their name starts with an R. I just wonder how many of those voter registration cards will be lost because the person checked "Democrat" or "other" for their party affiliation?

https://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Po ... d=17521278
https://www.thenation.com/article/archi ... m-florida/

Driving a van into a voter registration tent has nothing at all to do with trying to mess up the opposition party's voting.

Driving a van into an opposition party's voter registration tent has EVERYTHING to do with trying to mess up the opposition party's voting. If it was a Democrat booth you would have been first in line to express your outrage at such a blatant attempt at voter intimidation/suppression. Such an occurrence may cause many to rethink attempting to do so (registering) again.
 
afcjets
Posts: 3130
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:50 pm

The problem for Democrats now is I believe DNC leaders realize every current candidate has almost zero chance defeating Trump. It is even being reported Obama is really concerned about Bernie's rise because he especially doesn't (I actually disagree, I don't think he would win but I think he would have the best shot outside Tulsi who for some reason is hated by many Democrats but loved by Independents and Republicans). The controversy surrounding Joe and Hunter would be a problem for him especially considering investigations are just now underway. I just thought of a possibility and I am sure many of you will call it a conspiracy theory so let me preface it by saying I am not saying this is necessarily likely to happen, it just wouldn't surprise me if it did.
I think it's possible Mitt made a deal with the DNC. He is going to claim as he already very publicly predicted (a self fulfilling prophecy) he is going to be hated and suffer consequences for his decision from his own party, so he will eventually claim he has no choice but to convert into a Democrat. He is already the hero of the Trump hating left and I think WarRI's post in another topic rings true for many Democrats (even though it's little more than a predictable virtue signal). He said I didn't vote for Mitt before, but I would now! Mitt would also get all the Republican votes who don't like Trump. Now for the icing. I wouldn't be surprised if he chooses you know who as his running mate. This will be a way for her and Democrats to get revenge (almost, as VP) on the man who stole what rightfully belonged to her without her having to run again and making it look like she cheated in the primary and stole it from Bernie again, which many Bernie supporters believe. Mitt begged her and after careful consideration and prayer, she decided to say yes. Throw in Obama campaigning hard for him saying it says a lot that I would campaign for the man who ran against me. Remember, Mitt has already been the governor of a very blue state and many people say he implemented basically Obamacare in Massachusetts before Obama was elected and pushed the ACA through. It would be a total love fest all around!
They can't beat Trump, they can't frame Trump, they can't impeach Trump. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
Last edited by afcjets on Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:01 pm, edited 5 times in total.
 
User avatar
Tugger
Posts: 9695
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:51 pm

One thing Iowa reinforced for me: I do not at all trust or support "electronic voting". I want public polling places (not vote by mail crap), I want paper trails, I want a physical, uncorruptible something you can take with you linking you to your vote, I want ballot boxes that can be counted by humans whenever needed with hand signed items inside that can't be mass duplicated and can be checked and tested for validity (even if there is a chad hanging).

Fine, use a fast electronic tool that goes along with this to allow fast results reporting, but you need a simple hard document vote.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Posts: 2371
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:58 pm

Tugger wrote:
One thing Iowa reinforced for me: I do not at all trust or support "electronic voting". I want public polling places (not vote by mail crap), I want paper trails, I want a physical, uncorruptible something you can take with you linking you to your vote, I want ballot boxes that can be counted by humans whenever needed with hand signed items inside that can't be mass duplicated and can be checked and tested for validity (even if there is a chad hanging).

Fine, use a fast electronic tool that goes along with this to allow fast results reporting, but you need a simple hard document vote.

Tugg


We're still doing it old school in NH and no one wants it to change here either.
情報
 
User avatar
seb146
Posts: 21454
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:13 am

FTMCPIUS wrote:
seb146 wrote:
FTMCPIUS wrote:
I'm not a MAGA fan, and do not condone what was done in Iowa, yet there is this: https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/202 ... tion-tent/. Not exactly the same scenario, but at least the Iowa callers weren't trying to kill anyone.


No one knows if the attack was politically motivated or not so your "both sides do it" argument falls flat yet again. Not only that, but a person who was interviewed mentioned the "toxic environment" of politics. Guess which party started that? Hint: their name starts with an R. I just wonder how many of those voter registration cards will be lost because the person checked "Democrat" or "other" for their party affiliation?

https://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Po ... d=17521278
https://www.thenation.com/article/archi ... m-florida/

Driving a van into a voter registration tent has nothing at all to do with trying to mess up the opposition party's voting.

Driving a van into an opposition party's voter registration tent has EVERYTHING to do with trying to mess up the opposition party's voting. If it was a Democrat booth you would have been first in line to express your outrage at such a blatant attempt at voter intimidation/suppression. Such an occurrence may cause many to rethink attempting to do so (registering) again.


I still have not seen any reports this was purely political. IIRC, there was a big to-do by the right about Michael Savage being "attacked by liberals" at a restaurant in Marin County. Turns out, it was a neighbor who was angry at Savage over a fence or a dog or something not even related to politics at all. But, Republicans refuse to pass up any chance to fake outrage.

I still have not seen any evidence this was a politically motivated attack. Maybe it was a veteran who had his veterans benefits cut? Maybe it was a jilted lover of a worker? Maybe he was on bath salts and saw lizard people everywhere? Maybe it was political because third parties are locked out of the "free" election system? Maybe it was a "liberal"?

Republicans want us to reserve judgement and treat everyone with love and respect when it is one of them but they adopt a "kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out" stance when it comes to literally anyone else.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
User avatar
seb146
Posts: 21454
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:18 am

Jouhou wrote:
Tugger wrote:
One thing Iowa reinforced for me: I do not at all trust or support "electronic voting". I want public polling places (not vote by mail crap), I want paper trails, I want a physical, uncorruptible something you can take with you linking you to your vote, I want ballot boxes that can be counted by humans whenever needed with hand signed items inside that can't be mass duplicated and can be checked and tested for validity (even if there is a chad hanging).

Fine, use a fast electronic tool that goes along with this to allow fast results reporting, but you need a simple hard document vote.

Tugg


We're still doing it old school in NH and no one wants it to change here either.


No one but no one should ever trust electronic voting ever. Republican, MAGA, liberal, Democrat NO ONE AT ALL.

The "liberal" West Coast states have paper ballots we fill out and return at our leisure. One ballot, one vote, one person. No polling place, no intimidation. I made sure we knew where my drop site was when we moved here. And we turn in every ballot, even if it is just one race for dog catcher. Beside the point, I know, but do not accept electronic voting.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:14 pm

New Hampshire votes today and a lot has happened and this race in my opinion gets more and more bizarre by the minute. In Dixville Notch....who cast the first Ballots last night, Bloomberg wasn't on the ballot and got 2 democratic write in votes and 1 republican write in vote. Speaking of Bloomberg, a damning audio tape came out with him defending Stop and Frisk. This is not going to play well with the minority voters in Super Tuesday states. Biden has left New Hampshire early to campaign in South Carolina. If you believe the polling, he will not do well in New Hampshire and really may be going all in on South Carolina trying to secure the black vote to keep him in the race. Even so, he is out of Money and it doesn't look good for him. Warren also appears to be a sinking ship, and there are questions about her going forward if she has a bad showing in New Hampshire, a state that on paper she should do well in. Buttigieg has momentum out of Iowa, but at the same time is taking a pounding from progressive pundits on progressive web sites. Here are my predictions for New Hampshire

1. Bernie Sanders - I don't see how he loses unless someone can consolidate the more centrist-independent vote, which is splintered.
2. Pete Buttigieg - His Iowa momentum is waning a bit but he should still finish second.
3. Amy Klobuchar - She is surging after a strong debate and has not had to deal with any of the attacks that every other candidate have dealt with.
4. Elizabeth Warren - I think she finishes fourth, but watch to see if she gets double digits. If she finishes in Single Digits, she is in big trouble, especially given the next state is Nevada and she has serious issues with minority voters there.
5. Joe Biden - He has conceded New Hampshire and has already left the state. I don't see a way to Milwaukee for him after this.
6. Andrew Yang - He is probably done soon, but he has said some things that no one else said and that I think we need to listen to. This guy does get it.
Everyone else is irrelevant.

Based on that and the news cycle going forward here are my predictions.

1. There is no reliable polling out of Nevada, but I would expect that Buttigieg or Klobuchar could do very well there. Warren has issues, and Sanders although he is strong on paper, has to deal with the Unions in Nevada who are all telling their members they will lose their great union negotiated health care if we go single payer. No one else seems to be playing here. Also the Harry Reid machine is still very influential in Nevada and I don't think Reid is a Sanders fan.
2. Tom Steyer could well pull off South Carolina. He has campaigned hard there, Biden seems to be fading, Bloomberg is now going to have problems with the black vote, Buttigieg also has similar problems, Sanders hasn't ever been terribly strong either.
3. Looking at the Super Tuesday map, if everyone stays in the race to then (Which is likely especially if Biden does pull out South Carolina), you could have six or seven different candidates winning Super Tuesday states. If Biden pulls out South Carolina some areas are favorable to him, Klobuchar probably wins Minnesota, Warren probably wins MA and possibly Maine, Sanders likely wins California, Vermont, and the Democrats Abroad primary, Buttigieg has some states that favor a guy like him including Oklahoma and Colorado, Bloomberg is probably going to win at least one state, possibly more given his vast amount of Money, Tom Steyer could pull off a state like North Carolina if he polls well in South Carolina. So by my count, Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Bloomberg, and Steyer could all win states on Super Tuesday. I don't know how the math works after that, but if something like that happens, a Brokered convention becomes much more likely.
4. If there is a brokered convention, look for Trump to book the UW Milwaukee Panther Arena, (Just across town from the Fiserv Forum where the Democratic Convention is being held), for his own rally during the Democratic Convention.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7842
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:28 pm

apodino wrote:
So based on what I have seen so far, here are the states coming up, with the number of delegates and the likely winner.

You're forgetting that Democratic rules apportion delegates proportional to the vote total. If Sanders ekes out a win in several states, unless he wins with a blowout margin (like Vermont, for example), he'll get a proportion of the delegates. I know PR has a rule that if a candidate exceeds 60% or so, they take all the delegates, but right now I don't see any candidate breaking 60% in any contest (except VT where Sanders is the heavy favorite and I don't see anyone else encroaching there).

apodino wrote:
4. If there is a brokered convention, look for Trump to book the UW Milwaukee Panther Arena, (Just across town from the Fiserv Forum where the Democratic Convention is being held), for his own rally during the Democratic Convention.

It would not surprise me if the RNC disavows it. It's tradition among both parties that no campaigning happens when they hold their conventions. But then again, I wouldn't be surprised if the RNC plays dead to appease Trump and then clutches their pearls when the Democratic nominee decides to campaign in Charlotte while the GOP is gathered there. If there's one thing we can count on from Republicans is to have double standards (like lying about a blowjob is grounds for removal but lying about gathering dirt in exchange for aid isn't...).

As for your analysis, I don't think NH will show much of anything. Sanders had led consistently there so it's really a race for 2nd place. The surprises of the night will be:
1. How close can the 2nd place finisher come to Sanders
2. How far will Klobuchar's boost take her (will she finish a close 3rd? maybe 2nd?)
3. How far will Biden's downfall be (national polls have him collapsing, though they don't show Sanders surging, so it may be that Biden voters are finding someone else). A close 3rd place finish will keep him alive; a far 4th place finish is likely to doom him, even if he surges back with NV and SC.
4. Will Bloomberg upend political paradigms by placing in the top 5 without even being on the ballot or campaigning there?
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Posts: 2371
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:04 pm

I'll be voting soon. While I think it's true Bernie and Pete are leading, I'm not so sure klobuchar is really surging like polls show. She might be surging with the demographic that does polls, but her name never gets spoken around here.

I'm going for Warren. Pete would be my second choice. Pete's campaign has had the highest presence on the ground lately too.

But you never know with Bernie bros, Bernie might win regardless because he's Bernie.
情報
 
User avatar
ER757
Posts: 3628
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:15 pm

If it ends up as a brokered convention, anyone think that maybe Klobuchar would be the compromise candidate? She's pretty centrist, doesn't seem to have a lot of the baggage that some of the others carry and she might just be the one that independents and disenfranchised Republicans feel okay voting for. That would go a long way in carrying the swing states that Trump won in 2016
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7842
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:16 pm

ER757 wrote:
If it ends up as a brokered convention, anyone think that maybe Klobuchar would be the compromise candidate? She's pretty centrist, doesn't seem to have a lot of the baggage that some of the others carry and she might just be the one that independents and disenfranchised Republicans feel okay voting for. That would go a long way in carrying the swing states that Trump won in 2016

It all depends on who she picks as a running mate. The progressive wing will want someone there. If it ends up being a Klobuchar-Warren ticket, I'd be OK with it.

It's funny: Democrat conventions used to be defined by a Northern-Southern split: whoever won the nomination needed to balance the ticket with someone from the other region. Clinton broke that paradigm when he ran with Al Gore, and then Obama when he ran with Biden. At this convention, which promises to be brokered, the balance will need to be not a North-South balance, but a Moderate-Progressive balance.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
ER757
Posts: 3628
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:06 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
ER757 wrote:
If it ends up as a brokered convention, anyone think that maybe Klobuchar would be the compromise candidate? She's pretty centrist, doesn't seem to have a lot of the baggage that some of the others carry and she might just be the one that independents and disenfranchised Republicans feel okay voting for. That would go a long way in carrying the swing states that Trump won in 2016

It all depends on who she picks as a running mate. The progressive wing will want someone there. If it ends up being a Klobuchar-Warren ticket, I'd be OK with it.

It's funny: Democrat conventions used to be defined by a Northern-Southern split: whoever won the nomination needed to balance the ticket with someone from the other region. Clinton broke that paradigm when he ran with Al Gore, and then Obama when he ran with Biden. At this convention, which promises to be brokered, the balance will need to be not a North-South balance, but a Moderate-Progressive balance.

As sad a commentary as it is on society, I don't think you could go with an all female ticket. I do think you are on to something in that she'd need to pick a running mate from the south. Most likely someone not currently running for president - maybe a senator or governor from Dixie or a congressman from Texas for example.
One thing's for sure, I am laying in a big supply of popcorn........
 
User avatar
Tugger
Posts: 9695
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:00 pm

ER757 wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
ER757 wrote:
If it ends up as a brokered convention, anyone think that maybe Klobuchar would be the compromise candidate? She's pretty centrist, doesn't seem to have a lot of the baggage that some of the others carry and she might just be the one that independents and disenfranchised Republicans feel okay voting for. That would go a long way in carrying the swing states that Trump won in 2016

It all depends on who she picks as a running mate. The progressive wing will want someone there. If it ends up being a Klobuchar-Warren ticket, I'd be OK with it.

It's funny: Democrat conventions used to be defined by a Northern-Southern split: whoever won the nomination needed to balance the ticket with someone from the other region. Clinton broke that paradigm when he ran with Al Gore, and then Obama when he ran with Biden. At this convention, which promises to be brokered, the balance will need to be not a North-South balance, but a Moderate-Progressive balance.

As sad a commentary as it is on society, I don't think you could go with an all female ticket. I do think you are on to something in that she'd need to pick a running mate from the south. Most likely someone not currently running for president - maybe a senator or governor from Dixie or a congressman from Texas for example.
One thing's for sure, I am laying in a big supply of popcorn........

I always think Stacey Abrams would be an obvious VP choice.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Posts: 2371
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:16 am

ER757 wrote:
If it ends up as a brokered convention, anyone think that maybe Klobuchar would be the compromise candidate? She's pretty centrist, doesn't seem to have a lot of the baggage that some of the others carry and she might just be the one that independents and disenfranchised Republicans feel okay voting for. That would go a long way in carrying the swing states that Trump won in 2016


Only if she stops doing that single raised eyebrow thing that Fox news hosts do. Whether that's intentional or not it's some kind of weird body language that I associate with arrogant people.
情報
 
afcjets
Posts: 3130
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:52 am

ER757 wrote:
If it ends up as a brokered convention, anyone think that maybe Klobuchar would be the compromise candidate? She's pretty centrist, doesn't seem to have a lot of the baggage that some of the others carry and she might just be the one that independents and disenfranchised Republicans feel okay voting for. That would go a long way in carrying the swing states that Trump won in 2016

While she might be the best choice of the ones running in the Democratic primary, her biggest liability IMO is something that ultimately would make almost anyone unelectable as President, she is a former prosecutor. Seriously they should just quit running. That being said I think she has a decent chance of being the Democratic nominee.
 
LittleFokker
Posts: 1174
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:25 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:59 am

Dixsville Notch could very easily be a porn star name...how has no one claimed that yet?
"All human activities are doomed to failure." - Jean Paul Sartre
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3158
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:15 am

apodino wrote:
6. Andrew Yang - He is probably done soon, but he has said some things that no one else said and that I think we need to listen to. This guy does get it.
Everyone else is irrelevant.


And Yang did dropped out...sigh...

Right now, Sanders is leading in NH (Expected), Buttigieg is riding his performance in Iowa, as is Klobuchar. Warren is, well, disappointing.

Will Biden get double digit? He basically gave up NH to focus in SC, where if he do bad again, he's as good as done.

Buttigieg-Yang Ticket FTW! If Buttigieg wins the primary I expect him to pick a black VP, though.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Posts: 2371
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:43 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
apodino wrote:
6. Andrew Yang - He is probably done soon, but he has said some things that no one else said and that I think we need to listen to. This guy does get it.
Everyone else is irrelevant.


And Yang did dropped out...sigh...

Right now, Sanders is leading in NH (Expected), Buttigieg is riding his performance in Iowa, as is Klobuchar. Warren is, well, disappointing.

Will Biden get double digit? He basically gave up NH to focus in SC, where if he do bad again, he's as good as done.

Buttigieg-Yang Ticket FTW! If Buttigieg wins the primary I expect him to pick a black VP, though.



I hope Yang stays on the public stage though, he was able to engage a particular demographic in a positive way that is easily recruited into darker places politically while giving them hope *without* going into those darker places. Like basically people who would lean "alt-right" if he wasn't there and actually discussing issues that concerned them. They only go neo-nazi because everyone usually ignores them and they feel alienated.

Also, after looking at exit polls, I gotta correct myself. I would have been oblivious to illustrate surge because it's elderly people who like her. The two youngest demographics including my own don't like her. Maybe old people like the arrogant/condescending eyebrow thing and that's why Fox news hosts do it.
情報
 
User avatar
chepos
Posts: 7076
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 9:40 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:38 am

I am a Mayor Pete supporter, however, by the looks of it Bernie will be the nominee. At the end of the day I will vote for anyone that is not Donald Trump, so if it’s between Bernie and Trump in the general I will enthusiastically vote for Bernie.

I do hope Mayor Pete’s campaign lasts until AZ. I would like to cast my primary vote for him.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
User avatar
chepos
Posts: 7076
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2000 9:40 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:44 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
apodino wrote:
6. Andrew Yang - He is probably done soon, but he has said some things that no one else said and that I think we need to listen to. This guy does get it.
Everyone else is irrelevant.


And Yang did dropped out...sigh...

Right now, Sanders is leading in NH (Expected), Buttigieg is riding his performance in Iowa, as is Klobuchar. Warren is, well, disappointing.

Will Biden get double digit? He basically gave up NH to focus in SC, where if he do bad again, he's as good as done.

Buttigieg-Yang Ticket FTW! If Buttigieg wins the primary I expect him to pick a black VP, though.


Biden is as good as done, seeing him speak in SC this evening was cringe worthy.

Warren gave a much better speech in my opinion, she knows her train is pulling into the station.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
ltbewr
Posts: 14560
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:20 am

So, with NH done, a major cull of candidates has taken place although there seems to be a split at the top of Sanders, Buttigeig and a surprise of Kolbulchar getting delegates, Warren a disappointing 4th, Biden out of it, Yang dropping out, the rest in low single digits and only a few write ins for Bloomberg.

Like many long time Democrats, I have very serious concerns as to finding a candidate to beat Trump, all of the leaders seem to have flaws that will hurt them in the general in November. Go too radical, pander to the non-White voters, come off as supporting non-legal residents too much, pushing government run medical care and you lose too many of the White voters you still need to win. Trump seems to continue to have majority support from White voters. Nevada and SC will have some affect but Super Tuesday will be the big cut, chasing out the remaining single digit candidates.
 
User avatar
Jouhou
Posts: 2371
Joined: Tue May 24, 2016 4:16 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:27 am

ltbewr wrote:
So, with NH done, a major cull of candidates has taken place although there seems to be a split at the top of Sanders, Buttigeig and a surprise of Kolbulchar getting delegates, Warren a disappointing 4th, Biden out of it, Yang dropping out, the rest in low single digits and only a few write ins for Bloomberg.

Like many long time Democrats, I have very serious concerns as to finding a candidate to beat Trump, all of the leaders seem to have flaws that will hurt them in the general in November. Go too radical, pander to the non-White voters, come off as supporting non-legal residents too much, pushing government run medical care and you lose too many of the White voters you still need to win. Trump seems to continue to have majority support from White voters. Nevada and SC will have some affect but Super Tuesday will be the big cut, chasing out the remaining single digit candidates.


Please remember in primaries they're all trying to convince you the others aren't electable. Biden was running on electability and then the second it became apparent not everyone feels that way his support disappeared. That perception is important. The front runners are all electable. A potato looks like a better option compared to Trump. Trump's like a bad, angry, rotting potato. We want a nice fresh potato. We don't care if it's a red potato, russet, or Yukon gold, but while we're deciding we will argue about it. I'll be a bit bitter if it's not a Yukon gold but I'd still pick the russet over the angry rotting potato.
情報
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3158
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:40 pm

chepos wrote:
I am a Mayor Pete supporter, however, by the looks of it Bernie will be the nominee. At the end of the day I will vote for anyone that is not Donald Trump, so if it’s between Bernie and Trump in the general I will enthusiastically vote for Bernie.

I do hope Mayor Pete’s campaign lasts until AZ. I would like to cast my primary vote for him.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It is way to early to say Bernie will win, especially only after two states, one of which (NH) everyone knows that he will win in anyway.

ltbewr wrote:
So, with NH done, a major cull of candidates has taken place although there seems to be a split at the top of Sanders, Buttigeig and a surprise of Kolbulchar getting delegates, Warren a disappointing 4th, Biden out of it, Yang dropping out, the rest in low single digits and only a few write ins for Bloomberg.

Like many long time Democrats, I have very serious concerns as to finding a candidate to beat Trump, all of the leaders seem to have flaws that will hurt them in the general in November. Go too radical, pander to the non-White voters, come off as supporting non-legal residents too much, pushing government run medical care and you lose too many of the White voters you still need to win. Trump seems to continue to have majority support from White voters. Nevada and SC will have some affect but Super Tuesday will be the big cut, chasing out the remaining single digit candidates.


I do agree that Super Tuesday will be the day when some of the underperformer (cough...Biden) will finally be shown the door.

Buttigieg and Klobuchar has the momentum now, Warren and Biden is hoping for better results in NV and SC. Not enough polling so far, though.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7842
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:11 pm

If I were Bernie, I'd be worried about the results of NH. Yes, he won the total vote, but in terms of delegates, he tied Buttigieg. Not only that, collectively, 74% opted someone else. If we consider Warren and Sanders to be the progressives of the party, combined they still trail the combined tally that Klobuchar and Buttigieg got. So yes, it is a night to gloat about winning a state, but someone in the Sanders campaign should be looking at the numbers and sounding the alarm about how he's not expanding his base. Would have been interesting to ask Klobuchar voters who their second choice was...I think Buttigieg lost his lead because Klobuchar surged (the big surprise of the night, along with Warren and Biden reaching single digits), but not enough to put him out of play.

I still think it's too early to discount Biden and Warren BUT if Biden does not get an overwhelming win in both NV and SC, I think his last lifeline is Super Tuesday (which itself is on thin ice considering that Bloomberg is draining votes from Biden in the ST states). I think Warren's campaign also has enough juice to go to ST and if MA does not deliver for her, I can see her dropping out.

This race needs to come down to 6 candidates, which means Deval Patrick, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard need to get out (not like they were splitting the vote and affecting others anyway), and after Super Tuesday, if moderates are concerned about the vote splitting, then the weakest links should go. The lack of polling in recent months means that ST will be difficult to predict though.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
Tugger
Posts: 9695
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:14 pm

I tend to agree with others that while Bernie "won" he wasn't really the winner. He was exected to win and to win big quite frankly, this is as close to a "home state" as most anyone can get, he won NH by a landslide last election. This time he was first but not by much.

The news is that Buttigieg came in a close second and netted the same delegates, for someone who a month ago wasn't on the radar and who was viewed having a good chance to be maybe fourth, second is a comparative victory.

I think the big loser is Warren with Biden in that discussion as well (except he and his supporters can blame the fact he'd turned his attention to SC so that is why it was a poor showing).

Sanders won, but I'm not seeing him as the winner.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
afcjets
Posts: 3130
Joined: Thu Jan 01, 2015 6:20 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:48 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
If I were Bernie, I'd be worried about the results of NH. Yes, he won the total vote, but in terms of delegates, he tied Buttigieg. Not only that, collectively, 74% opted someone else. If we consider Warren and Sanders to be the progressives of the party, combined they still trail the combined tally that Klobuchar and Buttigieg got. So yes, it is a night to gloat about winning a state, but someone in the Sanders campaign should be looking at the numbers and sounding the alarm about how he's not expanding his base. Would have been interesting to ask Klobuchar voters who their second choice was...I think Buttigieg lost his lead because Klobuchar surged (the big surprise of the night, along with Warren and Biden reaching single digits), but not enough to put him out of play.

I still think it's too early to discount Biden and Warren BUT if Biden does not get an overwhelming win in both NV and SC, I think his last lifeline is Super Tuesday (which itself is on thin ice considering that Bloomberg is draining votes from Biden in the ST states). I think Warren's campaign also has enough juice to go to ST and if MA does not deliver for her, I can see her dropping out.

This race needs to come down to 6 candidates, which means Deval Patrick, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard need to get out (not like they were splitting the vote and affecting others anyway), and after Super Tuesday, if moderates are concerned about the vote splitting, then the weakest links should go. The lack of polling in recent months means that ST will be difficult to predict though.


I don't think Amy's surge in NH is the least bit surprising. IA and MA are two very different states and they rarely agree, if anything is surprising is that they both agree on the socialist and the mayor of SBN. I also think a lot of undecided NH voters look to purposely not choose who wins IA because why should they let Iowans tell them who to pick. IA is known for two things, this (including the IA state fair) and corn (I would almost like to see Warren chow down on a corn dog and lick her lips afterwards for the voters as much as Hillary), but they're not as important as they want to believe in elections, and NH always seems to love to remind them of that. Most importantly, many voters were undecided, Amy is the only voice of reason, outside of Joe who is flawed, and Tulsi, who is despised by many Democrats, and Amy supposedly had a great debate performance (I say supposedly only because I didn't watch it), so I think her gains were totally predictable.

The problem with the Native American Senator is her authenticity issue. IMO more than allegations she made up things to get ahead in life, she comes across as desperate and insincere and someone who will say anything to win by appeasing the most radical base of her party, i.e. reparations for gay people for not being able to marry within their own sex.

I think the establishment Democrats actually fear the possibility of Bernie beating Trump more than him just winning the primary, because if Bernie becomes President, the gravy train's over! They can prevent that by rigging the primary again (as long as it's apparent) because Bernie Bros will rebel, or if that doesn't work, piss off Tulsi enough to run as an independent.
Last edited by afcjets on Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
apodino
Topic Author
Posts: 3642
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2005 2:11 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:51 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
If I were Bernie, I'd be worried about the results of NH. Yes, he won the total vote, but in terms of delegates, he tied Buttigieg. Not only that, collectively, 74% opted someone else. If we consider Warren and Sanders to be the progressives of the party, combined they still trail the combined tally that Klobuchar and Buttigieg got. So yes, it is a night to gloat about winning a state, but someone in the Sanders campaign should be looking at the numbers and sounding the alarm about how he's not expanding his base. Would have been interesting to ask Klobuchar voters who their second choice was...I think Buttigieg lost his lead because Klobuchar surged (the big surprise of the night, along with Warren and Biden reaching single digits), but not enough to put him out of play.

I still think it's too early to discount Biden and Warren BUT if Biden does not get an overwhelming win in both NV and SC, I think his last lifeline is Super Tuesday (which itself is on thin ice considering that Bloomberg is draining votes from Biden in the ST states). I think Warren's campaign also has enough juice to go to ST and if MA does not deliver for her, I can see her dropping out.

This race needs to come down to 6 candidates, which means Deval Patrick, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard need to get out (not like they were splitting the vote and affecting others anyway), and after Super Tuesday, if moderates are concerned about the vote splitting, then the weakest links should go. The lack of polling in recent months means that ST will be difficult to predict though.


Excellent Analysis but I would say this. Tom Steyer is polling very well in SC and appears to be making a play for the Black vote there as the Biden train starts to derail. Klobuchar and Buttigieg are struggling with that vote and Steyer appears to be doing somewhat well with that group. He is not going to get out of the race before then, and if he has any kind of showing in SC, he will be around on Super Tuesday. Like Bloomberg, money is not a problem with him.

The only thing that would save Deval Patrick is an Obama endorsement (The two men are very close friends), but I suspect Obama will stay out of this entirely until Milwaukee. He got into the race way too late and has little name recognition. I don't know what Gabbards end game is, but she isn't helping anyone by staying in (and maybe that is the point).

As you said, Warren will be around until Super Tuesday based on the organization she has built. This was a terrible week for Warren between New Hampshire, Iowa, a lackluster debate performance, and the Minority Staff issue in Nevada. If she doesn't win more than MA on Super Tuesday, she is finished. She was polling well in Maine, but I suspect that will change quickly. If Biden doesn't win South Carolina, he is done, period. I don't think he wins Nevada, but he and Harry Reid did work together for many many years, and Reid still has influence out there.

Sanders won, but I would hardly consider his win earth shattering, and as others have said Buttigieg still leads in the delegate count. However, I would say this is exactly what we saw with Trump four years ago, and Trump ended up leaving Cleveland as the Republican Nominee. Do not underestimate him. One thing to note as Nevada comes up. The Culinary Workers Union, a very powerful Union in Democratic Politics, sent out a memo to its membership telling them that Sanders would take away their Union Negotiated Cadillac Health plans if he is elected. Health Care is a key issue for Democratic primary voters. And with Nevada a Caucus state, the Union bosses know exactly who may be defying them at the Caucus site.

After the first two primaries....my new power rankings.

1. Sanders
2. Buttigieg
3. Klobuchar
4. Bloomberg
5. Biden
6. Steyer
7. Warren

Everyone else a non factor.
 
User avatar
einsteinboricua
Posts: 7842
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:11 pm

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:21 pm

afcjets wrote:
I think the establishment Democrats actually fear the possibility of Bernie beating Trump more than him just winning the primary, because if Bernie becomes President, the gravy train's over!

I don't think it has anything to do with Bernie beating Trump...that's still up in the air and we only have 2016 data which is faulty considering there were only two contenders back then. Rather it's that IF by some miracle he ekes out a win, he'll be a lame duck president because his would need to compromise with Democrats to get them to pass his agenda items. That's assuming that Democrats retain the House and regain the Senate (which will also be an issue since Bernie's seat would be filled by a Republican, assuming Gov Scott remains governor, until a special election). If Republicans retain the Senate, Bernie's progressive agenda goes up in smoke.

And it would be interesting to see the same people who rail against Trump using executive orders to get around Congress suddenly support Sanders doing the same thing (and vice-versa: seeing Trump supporters who turned a blind eye to using a pen to do stuff suddenly clutch their pearls).

THAT'S why a Sanders presidency is doomed from the start. Because he has already made it a point to not compromise, giving Republicans and moderates every reason to not cooperate.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
User avatar
Tugger
Posts: 9695
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2006 8:38 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:39 pm

apodino wrote:
The only thing that would save Deval Patrick is an Obama endorsement

Deval Patrick just announced he has ended his campaign.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Francoflier and 70 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos