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TTailedTiger
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:38 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
Super Tuesday will be the big cut off to the top 3-4, maybe even to really just Biden and Sanders as lesser candidates will no longer get the campaign contributions they need to continue, Buttigieg can't continue much longer, Warren and Klobuchar, still have day jobs as Senators, Bloomberg has his 50+Billion$ in riches.

Sanders may be in a downhill situation, especially with older Democrats due to his terribly made comments as to Castro and 'Communism' as well that to pay for his grand plans would mean massive tax increases on the middle class discourage many from wanting him as the candidate

Biden may become the default moderate candidate, despite his terrible personal flaws, a long political record, his age, the scandals surrounding his son Hunter (drug addictions, the Ukrainian no-show job).

One thing I fear is a Progressive 3rd Party candidate that will take votes from the Democratic party candidate and effectively let in Trump again, especially in a close election.


Bernie will be just fine and is leading in the big states on Super Tuesday. Also he is leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania at the moment, states the democrats need in November. The States that Biden is leading in are not going for the democrats in November regardless of who the nominee is. I noticed this in 2016 also and felt the DNC should have paid attention that the fact the Bernie won Michigan and Wisconsin and made a huge mistake not putting him on the ticket with Hillary in 2016.

Also I do not get what is (rationally) so controversial about the Castro comments. He said essentially the same thing that Bloomberg said about China when he said Xi Jinping was not a dictator when being interviewed by Margaret Hoover. Also Obama said the same thing that Bernie did and I have news for all American being someone who has been to Cuba. The US government has relations with dictators far worse than in Cuba and that also want to screw US interests a lot more than Cuba does.


Agreed. Bernie has good support in the states that matter.
 
anrec80
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:40 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
This polls very high among all Americans.


Expectedly - any tax that is to be paid by someone else will poll high. In any country, not just America. In Canada too!

StarAC17 wrote:
However they do need to pay more in taxes and a modest wealth tax is not a bad thing. Also there is no reason that those who have a lot of money should be able to hide their money in tax havens and use the tax preferences of their investments/using holding companies to shelter those taxes. This means many very rich people are paying less taxes than the average individual. This polls very high among all Americans.


The problem with this is that nearly all this “wealth” is in equities - something that is totally blown and virtual, and there is too little reality behind any of it. Does it really matter whether a billionaire’s screen shows that he has 10, 20 or even 50 billion dollars, if only a small fraction of those have anything to do with real and liquid assets? I am not even saying that this wealth is too often hidden in corporate entities, including offshore ones. You may find that there is simply too little real tax base for this tax. And - you may as well find that people will be leaving the country, taking with them all their taxable income.

The problem is being kind of acknowledged in New York State, where they are hesitant to raise taxes, and even admit that all their financial wellbeing depends on a few hundred millionaires. Should they move out, all the state’s finances collapse like a house of cards. And it’s all too dependent upon one very volatile finance sector.

StarAC17 wrote:
Also Bernie cannot pay for all of his plans by going after billionaires only, everyone has to have skin in the game. The reality is that his ideas are popular and I do not think it is fair for him to repeatedly be questioned how he is going to pay for it. If you are then put Trump's feet to the fire on how he is going to pay for his tax cuts and increase to defense spending. No one in the media has done that at all.


I’d be afraid that first thing Bernie will hit soon enough if he starts doubling on budget deficits is that the demand for treasuries is not enough, and the two choices he has will be either deep and severe cuts to everything and anything, or resorting to printing press causing hyperinflation and wiping all the savings of those who will still have a thing or two by then not yet taxed away.

In a country with a trillion dollar deficits pushing for all this healthcare, housing and other expenses is living in some lala-land. First, you will not have an economy, and soon enough will find that you do not even have a country, let alone healthcare or education. Gotta find solution to those woes without added taxation or expenditures.
 
ltbewr
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:53 pm

Buttigieg out. Guess he ran out of money and luck even before Super Tuesday. So where does his supporters go ? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/election ... spartandhp
 
apodino
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:55 pm

Well Buttigieg is out now after suspending his campaign. I think this makes a brokered convention more likely. Bernie will get some of his support but I suspect more of his votes will go to other candidates, making it much more likely in states such as California that Biden and possibly Warren get to the 15 percent to be viable and win delegates. This will take delegates from Sanders.

Biden had a huge win in South Carolina, and now has some momentum so Mayor Pete probably figured it was a good time to get out with no realistic path to the nomination. On a side note, only Biden and Sanders will get delegates in South Carolina. This brings us to Super Tuesday on Tuesday. Biden’s win plus Buttigieg getting out will both make Super Tuesday very interesting. More on that later.
 
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ER757
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:13 am

ltbewr wrote:
Buttigieg out. Guess he ran out of money and luck even before Super Tuesday. So where does his supporters go ? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/election ... spartandhp

I was surprised to see this - I figured he'd wait until after Super Tuesday - he's already on all the ballots and it's only two days away. If he had a poor showing then he could pull the plug. It's a two horse race now IMHO. Warren is a non-factor, if anything, her staying in the race will pull votes away from Bernie. I don't think Bloomberg is gaining any traction with long-time democrats. The longer Warren stays in, the more delegates Biden will amass. Just my :twocents:
 
anrec80
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:15 am

ltbewr wrote:
Buttigieg out. Guess he ran out of money and luck even before Super Tuesday. So where does his supporters go ? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/election ... spartandhp


So the younger one is out. Only those who are around 80 years of age left. Somehow I am not optimistic about any of that at all.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:17 am

ltbewr wrote:
Buttigieg out. Guess he ran out of money and luck even before Super Tuesday.


How can he ran out of money, even assuming no one else is contributing to his campaign, LGBTQ is the richest demography with higher dispensable income in the USA. His campaign probably didn't figure out to use Citizens United.

A week back Larry the Cable Guy made a comment, there are 380 Million in the US and Democrats got these eight candidates. I suppose it is sarcasm from a conservative, but still. Buttigieg is one of the better candidates. I sincerely hope it is not Joe.
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stl07
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:24 am

I think voters in polls basically figured out that Buttigieg was the same as Bloomberg apart from the fact the Bloomberg ran an actual city. And Bloomberg, for his part, isn't polling well himself. I think it's basically going to come down to Biden and Sanders, with warren and Klobuchar getting peanuts
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ER757
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:30 am

anrec80 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
Buttigieg out. Guess he ran out of money and luck even before Super Tuesday. So where does his supporters go ? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/election ... spartandhp


So the younger one is out. Only those who are around 80 years of age left. Somehow I am not optimistic about any of that at all.

Indeed - the general election is almost certainly going to be to rich white guys in their mid to late 70's.
 
anrec80
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:35 am

ER757 wrote:
Indeed - the general election is almost certainly going to be to rich white guys in their mid to late 70's.


And we can only hope that the winner will remember his name by the time he begins his term, let alone promises.
 
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stl07
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:47 am

anrec80 wrote:
ER757 wrote:
Indeed - the general election is almost certainly going to be to rich white guys in their mid to late 70's.


And we can only hope that the winner will remember his name by the time he begins his term, let alone promises.

:lol: I was very surprised to see how old Trump and Bloomberg were, with Sanders and arguably Biden you could tell.
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trpmb6
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:19 am

stl07 wrote:
I think voters in polls basically figured out that Buttigieg was the same as Bloomberg apart from the fact the Bloomberg ran an actual city. And Bloomberg, for his part, isn't polling well himself. I think it's basically going to come down to Biden and Sanders, with warren and Klobuchar getting peanuts


Based on what? The results of South Carolina? He was never popular with African Americans and wasn't going to do well in the south anyways. I'm surprised he is getting out.

Then again I'm surprised Bloomberg and biden still think they have a shot.
 
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chepos
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2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:12 am

Sad to see mayor Pete drop out, I voted for him (early vote). Sigh, between Joe and Bernie not sure who the best bet is in the general. Either way, I’ll vote blue no matter who.


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chepos
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:16 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
Buttigieg out. Guess he ran out of money and luck even before Super Tuesday.


How can he ran out of money, even assuming no one else is contributing to his campaign, LGBTQ is the richest demography with higher dispensable income in the USA. His campaign probably didn't figure out to use Citizens United.

A week back Larry the Cable Guy made a comment, there are 380 Million in the US and Democrats got these eight candidates. I suppose it is sarcasm from a conservative, but still. Buttigieg is one of the better candidates. I sincerely hope it is not Joe.


Many LGBTQ voters support Bernie based on his past support of the LGBTQ community.

As a gay man myself, I thought it was amazing to see a member of the LGBTQ community get support to become president, albeit he fell short but he still got further than anyone could ever imagine.


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NYCVIE
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:30 am

apodino wrote:
Well Buttigieg is out now after suspending his campaign. I think this makes a brokered convention more likely. Bernie will get some of his support but I suspect more of his votes will go to other candidates, making it much more likely in states such as California that Biden and possibly Warren get to the 15 percent to be viable and win delegates. This will take delegates from Sanders.

Biden had a huge win in South Carolina, and now has some momentum so Mayor Pete probably figured it was a good time to get out with no realistic path to the nomination. On a side note, only Biden and Sanders will get delegates in South Carolina. This brings us to Super Tuesday on Tuesday. Biden’s win plus Buttigieg getting out will both make Super Tuesday very interesting. More on that later.


I feel like this is best for Biden. Buttigieg was a moderate, I would find it hard to believe that his supporters would align more with Bernie than Biden. So these are a lot of new potential voters for Biden on Tuesday. If Warren dropped out Bernie would probably have a similar rise, but she's made it clear she's in it to stay.
 
anrec80
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:53 am

stl07 wrote:
:lol: I was very surprised to see how old Trump and Bloomberg were, with Sanders and arguably Biden you could tell.


It’s funny to begin, but is truly said for the Party and the whole country. The main question is - once these ones are in carehome, who’s to come? The likes of AOC?
 
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stl07
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:55 am

anrec80 wrote:
stl07 wrote:
:lol: I was very surprised to see how old Trump and Bloomberg were, with Sanders and arguably Biden you could tell.


It’s funny to begin, but is truly said for the Party and the whole country. The main question is - once these ones are in carehome, who’s to come? The likes of AOC?


Sad for both parties. Trump is just as old.

Probably Pete again honestly. Wouldn't surprise me
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seb146
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:04 am

anrec80 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
You realize we are talking about people working two and three jobs who still can not afford housing and health care, right?


This is the kind of people this matter is about. These people in fact for the prevailing part live within their means and within what they earn and can afford, not looking to hang off some place.

seb146 wrote:

This is a common misconception by Republicans: That people are just sitting on the couch eating Cheetos demanding everything be given to them. That is simply not true. That is a lie being perpetuated by Republicans. Sanders is an FDR Democrat. Roosevelt wanted a Second Bill Of Rights


True for most extent - there is a whole layer of people (both from this country or elsewhere) who believe that it’s OK to hang themselves and dump their problems on others - taxpayers, community, city, society, etc. There became too many of them. This needs to come to its end - the country can no longer afford this. Each individual must go for more compromises, apply more efforts to help themselves. Families need to be knit closer together and share resources (housing, food, vehicles for commute, etc.) more efficiently. Communities need to learn to do more with less. There is no other viable option really.

seb146 wrote:

https://www.ushistory.org/documents/eco ... rights.htm

This is what Republicans can not wrap their heads abound and, so, they make stuff up.


Yes, this looks all too familiar. Last they tried to implement it in USSR, but simply ran out of economy. You need to make sure you have adequate economy first, and this is not done with trillion deficits.


Again, more Republican fairy tales. This whole Republican scare tactic is predicated on the myth that no one wants to work. Which is not true. GenX'ers and Millennials are working. Many of the jobs out there are low wage and/or no benefits. The same jobs Republicans were hating when they were created under Obama are being praised now. The same weak and anemic economy under Obama is flourishing now. The only thing that has changed is the political party in control. Literally that is it. GenX'ers and Millennials still have low wage jobs and still have to live below their means and still struggle to get by. They are shamed for living at home but you are suggesting they live at home and live within or below their means. And, still, this life is unsustainable.

Imagine a car race from Kansas City to New York. Boomers are telling us GenX'ers and Millennials "yeah, but YOUR starting line is Los Angeles and it is YOUR fault and you don't get a car because you are lazy!"

EDIT:

I live in MAGA territory and there are way too many Boomers working too damn hard just to survive. And, yes, many of them blame everyone else. Well. Boomers, why don't you all work? Get a job. Stop expecting us to take care of you. You all are just lazy and want to live with mommy and daddy and have them pay for everything.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:01 am

Totally anecdotal, but I have a gay friend who is liberal and he said he'd vote for any Democrat except for Buttigieg. He called him uh, 4 words, 3 of which I can't say here, the other being "fake", and would vote third party or not at all because he doesn't want Buttigieg to be our first LGBTQ president. Not really sure why lol

I liked him, though he did seem less genuine lately. Seems like he's just trying to say the right things instead of acting like a human. He's young, he can run again sometime in the next 40 years and still be younger than Sanders ;)

I have a feeling this will help Biden. I also think after super Tuesday we'll be down to Biden, Bernie, and maybe Trollberg. Don't really see any reason for Warren or Klobuchar to stay in except for VP.

If I was a conspiracy theorist, I'd say Warren may stay in to pull away support from Bernie and help Biden win in return for being Biden's VP. I've heard of worse plans
 
flyguy89
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:20 am

StarAC17 wrote:
Also I do not get what is (rationally) so controversial about the Castro comments. He said essentially the same thing that Bloomberg said about China when he said Xi Jinping was not a dictator when being interviewed by Margaret Hoover. Also Obama said the same thing that Bernie did and I have news for all American being someone who has been to Cuba. The US government has relations with dictators far worse than in Cuba and that also want to screw US interests a lot more than Cuba does.

I'll preface this by saying I think the continued Cuba embargo is stupid. I agree with you that there's an irrational hypocrisy in how the US maintains relations much worse dictatorships yet Cuba is somehow still beyond the pale.

I think for Sanders however the controversy is that he has a lifelong history of unapologetic support for left-wing dictatorships from the Soviet Union, to the Sandinistas, to Venezuela, to Cuba. He needs to be pressed on this...was he just being naive,
or has he undergone a fundamental shift in his lifelong thinking. He continues to state that what he wants is Scandinavian-style social democracy, yet his policies go much further than they do even. Additionally, the nordic countries, while they do feature high top income tax rates, have low corporate income taxes and more market economic freedom than the US. They also have the same or more billionaires per capita than the US. These things are seemingly fundamentally at odds with his politics and should be further explained.
 
anrec80
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:21 am

seb146 wrote:
Again, more Republican fairy tales.


These aren't Republican fairy tales, this is just reality in this world as of late. See - in 1960s-70s, when everything was OK, there was no such competition in the world. Now, in Asia you have a billion of pairs of working hands - people who want to work well and live well. 500 million former Soviet bloc is also in this boat. If you want to reverse the trend - you need to restore Soviet Union and have them build their communism again, not forgetting to push Eastern Europe into it, and force China into another round of cultural revolution. You understand how realistic this is - right? Hence, unfortunately, the negative trends are set to continue for good, and there is no party or president who can change them. And USA isn't alone in this boat - in Canada it's more than noticeable too, and EU also feels the pinch.

seb146 wrote:
GenX'ers and Millennials still have low wage jobs and still have to live below their means and still struggle to get by. They are shamed for living at home but you are suggesting they live at home and live within or below their means. And, still, this life is unsustainable.


I don't know who is shaming whom, but yes - if you can't afford your own housing, you stay with parents until you can afford one, and there is nothing wrong with that. People need to have this explained. After all, in vast majority of countries in this world this is precisely the case. Housing, especially in economically developed areas, is becoming more and more scarce, and liberal "fair housing" stuff just makes the matters worse, and use of available scarce resources even more inefficient. The solutions are also hard - improve quality of education in rural areas (and this is something not solved with money once we are at it), so that opportunities and jobs go there too. But Dems are proposing yet another formula of "take away and split".

To summarize everything said above - yes, many hard things have to become new normal. Kids living with parents and even staring families in parents' houses - has to become a norm. Seniors sharing apartments and houses as if they are in early 20s - also has to get into comfort zone, if the seniors did not buy and pay off a home during their working careers. The society has to be prepared for all such things to come, if you want to save the integrity of the society and the country. There are no easy solutions anywhere here.
 
anrec80
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:22 am

flyguy89 wrote:
I'll preface this by saying I think the continued Cuba embargo is stupid. I agree with you that there's an irrational hypocrisy in how the US maintains relations much worse dictatorships yet Cuba is somehow still beyond the pale.


Agree. The reasons for Cuban embargo were gone months after 1962 crisis, and this is when the embargo must have been done away with. And today's love for sanctions also must have never been there.
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:22 am

This board is dead. or everyone tired of talking politics. I noticed it's getting harder and harder to find the non-aviation thread. I miss a lot of thoughtful smart posters. glad not everyone has left this board. It's just kind of weird that so much is going on and so few posters.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:43 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
This board is dead. or everyone tired of talking politics. I noticed it's getting harder and harder to find the non-aviation thread. I miss a lot of thoughtful smart posters. glad not everyone has left this board. It's just kind of weird that so much is going on and so few posters.


It’s rather difficult to have a serious conversation here - apodino and others try with very reasoned and well-sourced posts, but inevitably the non sequitur parade of administration apologists and deflectors derail the conversation with various malarkey.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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seb146
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:13 am

anrec80 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
Again, more Republican fairy tales.


These aren't Republican fairy tales, this is just reality in this world as of late.


Right. Republicans making up things. Like "lazy Millennials" and "all Millennials this" and "all Millennials that" and "why don't Millennials just get more money" and "those Millennials just complain" and so forth. All lies. Millennials work. End of story.

Separate topic: Millennials can not afford housing and health care.

Separate topic: Millennials are drowning in education debt.

The Republican lie: Millennials do nothing because they do not pay off anything like Boomers did. How can someone pay off something when they were given zero resources at all? When you go to the market, do you just walk out the door without paying? No. Neither Millennials, contrary to what Republicans and Boomers lie about. Sorry, not lie. We can not say Republicans and Boomers lie. We have to say Republicans and Boomers have their own narrative. Don't want to offend.

Since we are creating our own narratives, we also get to say that Boomers are just greedy war mongers. Can't get mad. Just creating our own narrative. I will continue to refuse to look at life through Boomer's eyes as Boomers demand we all do. Just make up my own narrative. Boomers are doing it.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
anrec80
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:32 am

seb146 wrote:
Right. Republicans making up things. Like "lazy Millennials" and "all Millennials this" and "all Millennials that" and "why don't Millennials just get more money" and "those Millennials just complain" and so forth. All lies. Millennials work. End of story.

Separate topic: Millennials can not afford housing and health care.

Separate topic: Millennials are drowning in education debt.

The Republican lie: Millennials do nothing because they do not pay off anything like Boomers did. How can someone pay off something when they were given zero resources at all? When you go to the market, do you just walk out the door without paying? No. Neither Millennials, contrary to what Republicans and Boomers lie about. Sorry, not lie. We can not say Republicans and Boomers lie. We have to say Republicans and Boomers have their own narrative. Don't want to offend.

Since we are creating our own narratives, we also get to say that Boomers are just greedy war mongers. Can't get mad. Just creating our own narrative. I will continue to refuse to look at life through Boomer's eyes as Boomers demand we all do. Just make up my own narrative. Boomers are doing it.


In my previous post, I haven’t even mentioned words like “boomers” or “millennials”. What I was saying is that standards of living are set to drop across the board, equally for boomers, millennials and everyone in between. Each of those generations wants to maintain their living standards, lifestyle, but there isn’t simply enough economic pie for that. Everyone will need to go for compromises, revise their expectations and bring them in accordance with their means. And that better happens in controlled manner, if you don’t want any tragedies or disasters.
 
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seahawk
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:40 am

Buttigieg will simply have understood that he does not get votes from the African Americans and without them no democratic campaign has a chance.
 
ltbewr
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:41 am

Looks like Kolbuchar will be one of the dropouts after Super Tuesday. Apparently a rally in her home state of Minnesota had to be cancelled due to protesters taking to the stage, almost all Black, angry at her convicting as a Prosecutor back in 2002 a Black man for murder and serious questions as to the evidence. This has been an underlying issue that has crippled her run. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/election ... id=U507DHP
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:28 pm

So the 'woke' party of the US, the party that promotes and wins on 'identity politics' is left with mostly white old men, no people of color, no openly gay candidates. The other 2 women left on the primary are a non issue, have almost no support and aren't going anywhere. This will be left among white old men. The class of people that the left and the extreme leftist democrats vilify constantly. How ironic.

If we go by the standard of 2016, all Democrats are racists, misogynists, homo-phobes etc, because they prefer white old men. We know they aren't.

I sincerely hope that we stop name calling and using minorities as tokens. They are Americans above everything else, not member of a certain victim groups. This will serve as a lesson to the white coastal liberals who constantly use race and gender as a way to win votes and support for their radical agenda.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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seb146
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:42 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
So the 'woke' party of the US, the party that promotes and wins on 'identity politics' is left with mostly white old men, no people of color, no openly gay candidates. The other 2 women left on the primary are a non issue, have almost no support and aren't going anywhere. This will be left among white old men. The class of people that the left and the extreme leftist democrats vilify constantly. How ironic.

If we go by the standard of 2016, all Democrats are racists, misogynists, homo-phobes etc, because they prefer white old men. We know they aren't.

I sincerely hope that we stop name calling and using minorities as tokens. They are Americans above everything else, not member of a certain victim groups. This will serve as a lesson to the white coastal liberals who constantly use race and gender as a way to win votes and support for their radical agenda.


wow.... so much disinformation to unpack in this post.....

Just keep in mind that the party you now call "homophobic" and "racist" and "misogynist" spend a lot of time in minority neighborhoods and talking about problems of minorities and turning their backs on racists and demanding justice for sexual assault victims and advocating equality.

But, yeah, keep up your illusion and keep up the rhetoric against Hillary. Go on and party like it is 2016.

The kicker of this post is "I hope we stop with the name calling" and then going on to name call. Well played, sir. Well played.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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seb146
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:00 pm

anrec80 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
Right. Republicans making up things. Like "lazy Millennials" and "all Millennials this" and "all Millennials that" and "why don't Millennials just get more money" and "those Millennials just complain" and so forth. All lies. Millennials work. End of story.

Separate topic: Millennials can not afford housing and health care.

Separate topic: Millennials are drowning in education debt.

The Republican lie: Millennials do nothing because they do not pay off anything like Boomers did. How can someone pay off something when they were given zero resources at all? When you go to the market, do you just walk out the door without paying? No. Neither Millennials, contrary to what Republicans and Boomers lie about. Sorry, not lie. We can not say Republicans and Boomers lie. We have to say Republicans and Boomers have their own narrative. Don't want to offend.

Since we are creating our own narratives, we also get to say that Boomers are just greedy war mongers. Can't get mad. Just creating our own narrative. I will continue to refuse to look at life through Boomer's eyes as Boomers demand we all do. Just make up my own narrative. Boomers are doing it.


In my previous post, I haven’t even mentioned words like “boomers” or “millennials”. What I was saying is that standards of living are set to drop across the board, equally for boomers, millennials and everyone in between. Each of those generations wants to maintain their living standards, lifestyle, but there isn’t simply enough economic pie for that. Everyone will need to go for compromises, revise their expectations and bring them in accordance with their means. And that better happens in controlled manner, if you don’t want any tragedies or disasters.


The "controlled manner" is people just take what they can get and be happy with it?

Look, all I am saying is Americans are struggling. Americans are working too damn hard and getting very little to nothing in return. Americans across the spectrum. Not pointing to any race, gender, income, age. What I see is one generation making it harder for us who come after and blaming us who come after. Even when those in that generation are working their tails off and getting nothing in return. Progressive Democrats like Warren and Sanders want to change this dynamic. They want to reward us who are working too damn hard and seeing no return on our investment. I am still not seeing the problem with us who work expecting a return on our investment finally getting a return on our investment. Republicans want this country run like a business. Well, let's do it. Let's reward the share holders who contribute instead of punishing them.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
apodino
Topic Author
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:12 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
This board is dead. or everyone tired of talking politics. I noticed it's getting harder and harder to find the non-aviation thread. I miss a lot of thoughtful smart posters. glad not everyone has left this board. It's just kind of weird that so much is going on and so few posters.


It’s rather difficult to have a serious conversation here - apodino and others try with very reasoned and well-sourced posts, but inevitably the non sequitur parade of administration apologists and deflectors derail the conversation with various malarkey.

I appreciate the compliment. With this forum and seeing the junk on Facebook on a daily basis, I was wondering if Civil Discourse was even possible anymore. Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti, co-hosts of the rising at thehill.com prove that it is possible and give me reason for hope going forward.

Speaking of that, there was a very interesting segment this morning with a former healthcare executive that is very appropriate to some of the points that seb has been making. I encourage everyone to watch this clip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lv4kW6LdNGk

I agree with seb that many liberals want to work and just cant because the jobs are being taken away by automation (A point that Andrew Yang repeatedly hit on during his campaign), or are being sent out to China (after we were sold out by Clinton, Pelosi, McConnell, Obama, Gingrich, and Bush to name a few), not to mention that when some companies try to pay employees more they get hammered by Wall Street. Not everyone is lazy. At the same time, I see the other side of the coin. I took out student loans just like everyone else to pay for college, but I did pay mine back, and now I am a homeowner and have it pretty well. People who are in my boat wonder why some people will get their student loans forgiven when guys like me paid theirs back. Again, it's easy to see both sides of the argument. I think we spend too much time trying to win the argument and not enough time trying to listen to the other side of the argument.

How this relates to the election is the Establishment elites are protecting their own keisters, and populists are putting their influence and power in jeopardy and they don't like it. It's why Buttigieg got out of the race, its why the establishment would rather destroy the democratic party than allow Sanders to be nominated, its why superdelegates still have some power at the convention, and its also why ABC news would not publish a story that would have nailed Epstein a lot earlier than he was.

Ok enough on that, let me pause here then make my super Tuesday predictions.
 
apodino
Topic Author
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:38 pm

Super Tuesday Predictions state by state.

Alabama - Demographically this state is very similar to South Carolina with a big black vote. That should favor Biden. Bernie will likely get votes in Tuscaloosa and Auburn but I see Biden winning this easily. Bloomberg likely has been running ads, but his bad debate performance coupled with Biden's huge SC win will leave this a Biden victory.

Biden wins, Sanders gets above 15 percent and no one else is viable.

American Samoa - There is almost no polling out of here. This is a caucus state and I would expect it to favor Sanders. Other than he and Biden, I cant see many people having name recognition out there.

Sanders wins all six delegates

Arkansas - This is an interesting state. This is Clinton's home state, and the democratic vote here appears to be more right leaning, which would favor Biden. However Wal-Mart is based in Fayetteville, and there is also a strong Latino population there. I think both those factors will help Sanders. I also think Bloomberg will get some play here as well.

Biden Wins, Sanders a close second, and Bloomberg just gets above 15 percent to win some delegates.

California - This is the big prize, and Sanders will win easily based on current polling. The real question is how the other candidadates do. Buttigieg dropping out should help some of them, but many early votes were cast before this announcement. (One huge problem I have with early voting) Warren is also polling well and will likely win delegates. Polling also shows that Biden will get to 15 percent and Bloomberg may as well. This would be the worst case scenario for Sanders as the more candidates that hit 15 percent, the fewer delegates he wins. I don't think Bloomberg gets there, but I still see a three way spilit here.

Sanders Wins, Warren finishes a distant second, Biden third and those three split the delgates.

Colorado - This state is tailor made for Sanders. I think the demographics also favor a good showing by Warren as well. This state would not seem to be a natural for Biden.

Sanders Wins, Warren finishes second and they split the delegates

Democrats Abroad - This should favor Sanders, but Warren has done a livestream townhall event in London. Not a lot of delegates at stake here.

Sanders wins, but Warren will get a couple of delegates

Maine - Warren was doing well there initially but now it looks like Sanders has turned it around. Keep in mind that much of Maine votes similarly to New Hampshire, and that may give Biden a boost. I expect Sanders to win.

Sanders wins, Warren and Biden viable at a distant.

Massachusetts - This is Warren's home state but Sanders has made a strong play for this state. With a lot of college students in MA, I would think that would favor Sanders, and Warren has one of the lowest favorability ratings in her state of anyone in the Senate. Warren has been endorsed by many big name MA politicians. With Buttigieg dropping out last night, I think that may be enough to tip this one to Warren. Its going to be a very close race though. If Warren doesn't win, there will be questions asked about why she is still in the race.

Warren wins, Sanders a close second, and Bloomberg may hit viability with a lot of financial firms based in Boston.

Minnesota - As I write this, Klobuchar has dropped out, and endorsed Biden. Sanders will pick up votes in the Cities based on this, but given the nature of the rest of the state, Biden may pull this one out.

Biden wins, Sanders gets delegates.


Rest of states in a second post.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:46 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Looks like Kolbuchar will be one of the dropouts after Super Tuesday. Apparently a rally in her home state of Minnesota had to be cancelled due to protesters taking to the stage, almost all Black, angry at her convicting as a Prosecutor back in 2002 a Black man for murder and serious questions as to the evidence. This has been an underlying issue that has crippled her run. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/election ... id=U507DHP

Close. She just ended her campaign and will endorse Biden.

Now, if only Bloomberg can step aside.

Only 5 candidates left (Gabbard might as well get out too and leave 4 in the race and if Bloomberg bows out, then leave Sanders, Biden, and Warren, and to the inevitable Biden vs Sanders showdown).
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15207
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:48 pm

Klobuchar out. Throws here delegates to Biden. Guess her being forced to abandon/cancel a rally Sunday night due to protesters taking over the stage before she appeared as to her getting a life sentence for a Black 17 year old in a murder case of an 11 year old when a prosecutor was the final blow.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/02/politics ... index.html

Another one bites the dust. 2 in 2 days. Now only 70 year olds left in the running, or should I say walking. Slowly.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:51 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Another one bites the dust. 2 in 2 days. Now only 70 year olds left in the running, or should I say walking. Slowly.

Out of the men running, Biden is actually the youngest.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
apodino
Topic Author
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:58 pm

Super Tuesday Predictions, part 2.

North Carolina - This state is a little different than South Carolina in that there are more young voters here, and there is some more economic centers here. I suspect some Biden momentum will bleed across the border and help him there, but places like Chapel Hill and Durham are going to be huge Sanders areas. Still, there is a huge banking center in Charlotte and I think Biden pulls this out. The question is what impact does Bloomberg have here.

Biden wins, Sanders and Bloomberg get delegates

Oklahoma - Warren's native state, but I don't know what to make of the demographics. On paper this would appear to favor Biden, but this is a state that Bloomberg has pelted with ads. Sanders will have some support but this state doesn't seem like his natural fit. Warren may get some looks here, but I think the native American controversy hurts her here.

Biden wins, Bloomberg and Sanders get delegates

Tennessee - This is another state with a huge Black vote and that will help Joe Biden. Sanders doesn't really have a strong base here, and Bloomberg would not either.

Biden wins, Sanders gets delegate

Texas - The second biggest prize. Sanders has a huge advantage with Latino voters and a natural area of strength in Austin and in the DFW metroplex. Houston, and much of the rest of the state will favor Biden. Buttigieg getting out will help Biden here. Sanders and Biden will be neck and neck, and the question is, does Bloomberg or Warren become viable? I will give this one to Biden based on the events of the last 24 hours.

Biden wins, Sanders a close second, Bloomberg and Warren are viable and get delegates

Utah - One of the most conservative states in the Country has one of the most liberal Democratic voting bases and one that decisively favors Sanders. Yesterday I would have said Sanders could sweep all the delegates, not I am not so sure. Warren would seem to be the logical second place finisher here if anyone else gets viability.

Sanders wins, Warren gets delegaes

Vermont - Sanders wins his home state easily. I doubt anyone else hits 15 percent here.

Sanders wins and gets all the delegates

Virginia - Sanders has made a play for this state but he has some problems here. One is that a key voting area is the DC suburbs and naturally they would have a lot to lose under a Sanders presidency. Second is that downstate, the Black vote favors Biden. Key Virginia politicians have endorsed Biden. Bloomberg is making a big play for the DC suburbs as well, and there is incentive there.

Biden wins, Sanders and Bloomberg close behind to split the delegates. Would not be surprised if any of these three won here.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:23 pm

And the conspiracy theories are swirling in social media that this is of the DNC's making to stop Bernie.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
Okie
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:36 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
And the conspiracy theories are swirling in social media that this is of the DNC's making to stop Bernie.


I am not into conspiracy theories but the fact is, you still have Perez and Clinton controlling the DNC.

I will wait for the Convention regardless of any candidate, even if one had 3/4 of the delegates.

Okie
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:40 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
And the conspiracy theories are swirling in social media that this is of the DNC's making to stop Bernie.


The smart thing for Democrats is to stop Bernie. Down ballot will suffer tremendously with Bernie in top of the ticket.

Most of the country is not on the coast. Bernie will lose the house and the Senate will be kept with Republicans.

There is a reason Trump wants Bernie to be the nominee.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
StarAC17
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:43 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
Also I do not get what is (rationally) so controversial about the Castro comments. He said essentially the same thing that Bloomberg said about China when he said Xi Jinping was not a dictator when being interviewed by Margaret Hoover. Also Obama said the same thing that Bernie did and I have news for all American being someone who has been to Cuba. The US government has relations with dictators far worse than in Cuba and that also want to screw US interests a lot more than Cuba does.

I'll preface this by saying I think the continued Cuba embargo is stupid. I agree with you that there's an irrational hypocrisy in how the US maintains relations much worse dictatorships yet Cuba is somehow still beyond the pale.

I think for Sanders however the controversy is that he has a lifelong history of unapologetic support for left-wing dictatorships from the Soviet Union, to the Sandinistas, to Venezuela, to Cuba. He needs to be pressed on this...was he just being naive,
or has he undergone a fundamental shift in his lifelong thinking. He continues to state that what he wants is Scandinavian-style social democracy, yet his policies go much further than they do even. Additionally, the nordic countries, while they do feature high top income tax rates, have low corporate income taxes and more market economic freedom than the US. They also have the same or more billionaires per capita than the US. These things are seemingly fundamentally at odds with his politics and should be further explained.


As I posted before Sanders is saying exactly what Bloomberg said about China. Dictators have to give their citizens something to stay in power, China invests heavily in industry, infrastructure and education which keeps people in line. Cuba does it with education and health care.

What Sanders does say is he is not a fan of the US overthrowing governments regardless of who they are and he has been rather consistent on this position. This attracts a lot of isolationist libertarians to Sanders as well as he is less likely to start any dumb wars. Remember Trump ran to the left of Hillary on interventionism and it worked out well for him.

anrec80 wrote:
stl07 wrote:
:lol: I was very surprised to see how old Trump and Bloomberg were, with Sanders and arguably Biden you could tell.


It’s funny to begin, but is truly said for the Party and the whole country. The main question is - once these ones are in carehome, who’s to come? The likes of AOC?


AOC will probably become a senator before the end of the decade and I do think Pete does have a very promising future. I could see him winning a senate or congressional race in Indiana in the future and perhaps governor.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
Osubuckeyes
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:50 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
This board is dead. or everyone tired of talking politics. I noticed it's getting harder and harder to find the non-aviation thread. I miss a lot of thoughtful smart posters. glad not everyone has left this board. It's just kind of weird that so much is going on and so few posters.


It’s rather difficult to have a serious conversation here - apodino and others try with very reasoned and well-sourced posts, but inevitably the non sequitur parade of administration apologists and deflectors derail the conversation with various malarkey.


That's a bingo
 
kalvado
Posts: 2847
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:26 pm

seb146 wrote:
anrec80 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
Right. Republicans making up things. Like "lazy Millennials" and "all Millennials this" and "all Millennials that" and "why don't Millennials just get more money" and "those Millennials just complain" and so forth. All lies. Millennials work. End of story.

Separate topic: Millennials can not afford housing and health care.

Separate topic: Millennials are drowning in education debt.

The Republican lie: Millennials do nothing because they do not pay off anything like Boomers did. How can someone pay off something when they were given zero resources at all? When you go to the market, do you just walk out the door without paying? No. Neither Millennials, contrary to what Republicans and Boomers lie about. Sorry, not lie. We can not say Republicans and Boomers lie. We have to say Republicans and Boomers have their own narrative. Don't want to offend.

Since we are creating our own narratives, we also get to say that Boomers are just greedy war mongers. Can't get mad. Just creating our own narrative. I will continue to refuse to look at life through Boomer's eyes as Boomers demand we all do. Just make up my own narrative. Boomers are doing it.


In my previous post, I haven’t even mentioned words like “boomers” or “millennials”. What I was saying is that standards of living are set to drop across the board, equally for boomers, millennials and everyone in between. Each of those generations wants to maintain their living standards, lifestyle, but there isn’t simply enough economic pie for that. Everyone will need to go for compromises, revise their expectations and bring them in accordance with their means. And that better happens in controlled manner, if you don’t want any tragedies or disasters.


The "controlled manner" is people just take what they can get and be happy with it?

Look, all I am saying is Americans are struggling. Americans are working too damn hard and getting very little to nothing in return. Americans across the spectrum. Not pointing to any race, gender, income, age. What I see is one generation making it harder for us who come after and blaming us who come after. Even when those in that generation are working their tails off and getting nothing in return. Progressive Democrats like Warren and Sanders want to change this dynamic. They want to reward us who are working too damn hard and seeing no return on our investment. I am still not seeing the problem with us who work expecting a return on our investment finally getting a return on our investment. Republicans want this country run like a business. Well, let's do it. Let's reward the share holders who contribute instead of punishing them.

Americans, on average, are getting more than they deserve.
Exhibit 1: trade deficit, $3 per person per day. That is amount of wealth hard working Americans spend without earning it.
 
anrec80
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:58 pm

seb146 wrote:
The "controlled manner" is people just take what they can get and be happy with it?


Yes. I do understand though it’s hard for many, but there is no other answer.

seb146 wrote:
Look, all I am saying is Americans are struggling. Americans are working too damn hard and getting very little to nothing in return. Americans across the spectrum. Not pointing to any race, gender, income, age. What I see is one generation making it harder for us who come after and blaming us who come after. Even when those in that generation are working their tails off and getting nothing in return.


It’s not just Americans who are struggling. Pretty much all Western world is in this boat. Yes, many may feel that they are get too little, but they need to be explained that this is a new normal. They will inevitably have to get by with what they are getting, adjust their expectations, and plan accordingly. And this is true across the board. There is nothing else can be said about this.

seb146 wrote:
Progressive Democrats like Warren and Sanders want to change this dynamic. They want to reward us who are working too damn hard and seeing no return on our investment. I am still not seeing the problem with us who work expecting a return on our investment finally getting a return on our investment. Republicans want this country run like a business. Well, let's do it. Let's reward the share holders who contribute instead of punishing them.


They want to change this only verbally, while campaigning. And the story will be entirely different with one’s ability to change even a small thing once they get to the office. While they are campaigning, there is education, healthcare and such, built in the office, there is that looming trillion dollar deficit the voters did not want to hear anything about, but needs to be dealt with.

If coming back to living within nation’s means will imply running the country like business - then what are other options? After all, there is intense global competition nowadays in the world. And if that means running the country like business - then this is how it has to be. It means government has to be sized just right, no more than required, cost-effective (without huge pensions, benefits and such), and efficient. Too combat fiscal problems of this scale, cuts have to be deep, severe, painful and numerous. These problems were simply let grow for too long.
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2983
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:04 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
Also I do not get what is (rationally) so controversial about the Castro comments. He said essentially the same thing that Bloomberg said about China when he said Xi Jinping was not a dictator when being interviewed by Margaret Hoover. Also Obama said the same thing that Bernie did and I have news for all American being someone who has been to Cuba. The US government has relations with dictators far worse than in Cuba and that also want to screw US interests a lot more than Cuba does.

I'll preface this by saying I think the continued Cuba embargo is stupid. I agree with you that there's an irrational hypocrisy in how the US maintains relations much worse dictatorships yet Cuba is somehow still beyond the pale.

I think for Sanders however the controversy is that he has a lifelong history of unapologetic support for left-wing dictatorships from the Soviet Union, to the Sandinistas, to Venezuela, to Cuba. He needs to be pressed on this...was he just being naive,
or has he undergone a fundamental shift in his lifelong thinking. He continues to state that what he wants is Scandinavian-style social democracy, yet his policies go much further than they do even. Additionally, the nordic countries, while they do feature high top income tax rates, have low corporate income taxes and more market economic freedom than the US. They also have the same or more billionaires per capita than the US. These things are seemingly fundamentally at odds with his politics and should be further explained.


As I posted before Sanders is saying exactly what Bloomberg said about China.

Sure, however there's no mystery as to why Bloomberg said the things he did about China: there's money to be made there and he doesn't want to rock the boat by criticizing the Chinese government. It's skin deep. With Sanders, there's a much longer history of affinity for Leftist authoritarian regimes which implicates something more philosophical and deeply-held. What is the case? Has he fundamentally changed his viewpoint? Does he regret his praise of these tyrannical regimes? If not, why?

StarAC17 wrote:
What Sanders does say is he is not a fan of the US overthrowing governments regardless of who they are and he has been rather consistent on this position. This attracts a lot of isolationist libertarians to Sanders as well as he is less likely to start any dumb wars. Remember Trump ran to the left of Hillary on interventionism and it worked out well for him.

This still doesn't speak to the inherent contradictions I mentioned earlier.
 
NIKV69
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:45 am

Okie wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
And the conspiracy theories are swirling in social media that this is of the DNC's making to stop Bernie.


I am not into conspiracy theories but the fact is, you still have Perez and Clinton controlling the DNC.

I will wait for the Convention regardless of any candidate, even if one had 3/4 of the delegates.

Okie


I am curious to see what happens tomorrow but I think Biden and Bernie will have the lion share of the delegates before we see what that super delegates do but one thing is certain the DNC convention is going to be a night to remember!
I am the Googlizer!!!
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:44 am

einsteinboricua wrote:
And the conspiracy theories are swirling in social media that this is of the DNC's making to stop Bernie.

Wouldn't be surprised. Perhaps Biden and some big wigs promised something to Buttigieg and Klobuchar if they drop out. It'll be hard to overtake Sanders if the moderate vote is fragmented.

I'm interested to see what Warren does. This may sound even more conspiracy theory-ish but wouldn't it make sense for Biden to promise Warren VP if she stays in? Think about it. Her presence will split the progressive vote and hurt Sanders. Biden gets a woman VP and can appease the progressive wing
 
NIKV69
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:54 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
And the conspiracy theories are swirling in social media that this is of the DNC's making to stop Bernie.

Wouldn't be surprised. Perhaps Biden and some big wigs promised something to Buttigieg and Klobuchar if they drop out. It'll be hard to overtake Sanders if the moderate vote is fragmented.

I'm interested to see what Warren does. This may sound even more conspiracy theory-ish but wouldn't it make sense for Biden to promise Warren VP if she stays in? Think about it. Her presence will split the progressive vote and hurt Sanders. Biden gets a woman VP and can appease the progressive wing


Biden won't pick Warren she is radioactive and nuts he is picking Klobuchar. If Bernie somehow wins I am not sure if he picks warren he probably has promised Abrams and if Bloomberg wins I am not sure who he will pick.
I am the Googlizer!!!
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2217
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:28 am

NIKV69 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
einsteinboricua wrote:
And the conspiracy theories are swirling in social media that this is of the DNC's making to stop Bernie.

Wouldn't be surprised. Perhaps Biden and some big wigs promised something to Buttigieg and Klobuchar if they drop out. It'll be hard to overtake Sanders if the moderate vote is fragmented.

I'm interested to see what Warren does. This may sound even more conspiracy theory-ish but wouldn't it make sense for Biden to promise Warren VP if she stays in? Think about it. Her presence will split the progressive vote and hurt Sanders. Biden gets a woman VP and can appease the progressive wing


Biden won't pick Warren she is radioactive and nuts he is picking Klobuchar. If Bernie somehow wins I am not sure if he picks warren he probably has promised Abrams and if Bloomberg wins I am not sure who he will pick.


Klobuchar would make a great VP for either Biden or Bernie, but she played her hand toward Biden for the best position after SC, she may have been worried about winning MN, if behind more graceful to bow out.

---

With a large field the 15% threshold really amplifies the delegate results. In SC Biden got 48% of the vote & Bernie 20%. Biden got 48/(48+20)=70% of delegates and Bernie 30%. Rounding always seems to favor the winner Biden's 39 delegates is 72% of the state.

California gets complicated because this 15% rule is played out in each congressional district, so 53 separate times this sift is applied. There are delegates based on the whole state, around 1/3. Also, most ballots are mail in ones in CA and there is early voting, so all the names are listed, even if withdrawn. Two weeks ago Biden wasn't doing great, Bernie and Buttigieg were with CA having a quite active Sanders campaign. Now Biden is back 'hot' but the ballot is in the pile of mail never to be voted. With the delegate total of 415 it will be Bernie 275, Buttigieg 75, and Biden 65 with no other over 15%.

In all of Super Tuesday, I think Bernie will get at least half, Biden about 1/4, Bloomberg 10%, and others totaling 15%
 
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N14AZ
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Re: 2020 Democratic Primary Thread

Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:58 am

So, in other words we are back to Biden vs. Trump, correct?

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