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agill
Posts: 1066
Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2004 4:49 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:39 pm

Klaus wrote:
olle wrote:

Only consistent when you're turning the UK into a safe haven for tax evaders and other wealthy scoundrels to further incentivize Tory donations.

And this:

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unter ... 0a2ebdc599

UK car manufacturers demand the UK government to help them by agreeing to a reasonable deal.

At the same time industry in the EU27 still puts the priority on preserving the integrity of the Single Market instead of pressuring their own governments for Brexit leniency.

Are there any things that are actually going the way the Leave politicians had claimed they would?


Blue passports? 50p coin?
 
Klaus
Posts: 21556
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:48 pm

agill wrote:
Blue passports? 50p coin?

You mean those blue passports which the UK will now abandon the current british manufacturer over and is instead now ordering from a franco-dutch company who are manufacturing them in Poland and which will then have to be imported (with import duty paid!) to the UK?

Those ones?

If BoJo tomorrow announced the establishment of a new Ministry of silly walks it would actually be less bizarre than much of the whole Brexit farce is already!
 
Olddog
Topic Author
Posts: 1503
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:52 pm

Well with the border posts to build and extend, the 50 K custom agents, the vets and all that is needed to manner the frontier, the future is glorious.
Signature censored
 
noviorbis77
Posts: 1003
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:23 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:03 pm

olle wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
You misunderstand: It's only "democracy" when a majority in England tells everybody else to shut up and do as they're told! :crazy:


The UK is one nation.

England and Wales voted leave.

Other parts of the nation, Scotland and Northern Ireland did not.


Last time I heard UK was represented by several national teams in a number of sports. What do they know what UK government do not?


That was the case long since the EU.

Is football teams now how nations identify themselves?
 
olle
Posts: 2026
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:24 pm

Klaus wrote:
agill wrote:
Blue passports? 50p coin?

You mean those blue passports which the UK will now abandon the current british manufacturer over and is instead now ordering from a franco-dutch company who are manufacturing them in Poland and which will then have to be imported (with import duty paid!) to the UK?

Those ones?

If BoJo tomorrow announced the establishment of a new Ministry of silly walks it would actually be less bizarre than much of the whole Brexit farce is already!


Those one that they could have asked to be blue in the first place? There is no EU rule about the color settings of the passports... If this was so important for the UK people why was it not changed ages ago?
 
Klaus
Posts: 21556
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:34 pm

olle wrote:
Klaus wrote:
agill wrote:
Blue passports? 50p coin?

You mean those blue passports which the UK will now abandon the current british manufacturer over and is instead now ordering from a franco-dutch company who are manufacturing them in Poland and which will then have to be imported (with import duty paid!) to the UK?

Those ones?

If BoJo tomorrow announced the establishment of a new Ministry of silly walks it would actually be less bizarre than much of the whole Brexit farce is already!


Those one that they could have asked to be blue in the first place? There is no EU rule about the color settings of the passports... If this was so important for the UK people why was it not changed ages ago?

For the same kind of reasons why the UK actually didn't vote against all those regulations UK politicians then lied to their home audience about aven though they could have done!
 
Klaus
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Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 7:36 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Is football teams now how nations identify themselves?

Yeah, national football teams are indeed one of the more visible embodiments of national identification, and the UK with its split teams always looked like an outsider there!
 
bennett123
Posts: 9620
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:49 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:39 pm

I was recently looking at the Wikipedia page on Passports.

There was a nice picture of a Blue Croatian Passport.

Strange given that Croatia is in the EU.
 
noviorbis77
Posts: 1003
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:23 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:40 pm

Klaus wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Is football teams now how nations identify themselves?

Yeah, national football teams are indeed one of the more visible embodiments of national identification, and the UK with its split teams always looked like an outsider there!


It has been the case since long before you and I were born.

I am sorry if it offends you so much.
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 11614
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:11 pm

bennett123 wrote:
I was recently looking at the Wikipedia page on Passports.

There was a nice picture of a Blue Croatian Passport.

Strange given that Croatia is in the EU.


Why is it strange? There is no EU rule to have it in brown /red.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
noviorbis77
Posts: 1003
Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:23 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:30 pm

Dutchy wrote:
bennett123 wrote:
I was recently looking at the Wikipedia page on Passports.

There was a nice picture of a Blue Croatian Passport.

Strange given that Croatia is in the EU.


Why is it strange? There is no EU rule to have it in brown /red.


Has anyone ever thought otherwise?
 
Klaus
Posts: 21556
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:38 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Is football teams now how nations identify themselves?

Yeah, national football teams are indeed one of the more visible embodiments of national identification, and the UK with its split teams always looked like an outsider there!

It has been the case since long before you and I were born.

I am sorry if it offends you so much.

I doesn't "offend" me at all. It's just a weird sign of disunity.

But given how english nationalism is now blowing up the UK it's apparently always just been a sign of things to come.
 
A101
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:43 pm

I'm really lost with all this preoccupation on passports or footy teams, its a non issue to me what colour it is. where its made irks me but that's out of my hands its was made under a pro EU PM and government which had two priorities appease the EU and save money.

About the passports its really just a sovereign decision that makes them stand apart from the current harmonisation from the EU. The only real important distinction from my point of view is that it no longer starts with EUROPEAN UNION that's good enough for me at the moment
 
Klaus
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Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:35 am

I'm really lost with all this preoccupation on passports

Really? It was a major Brexit propaganda point and it kept popping up when people were asked about their reasons for voting Leave and for the Tories, so it deserves remembering.

It is peculiar how easily the Leave leadership has divorced itself from almost all of the original claims and promises as soon as those were either deemed impractical or simply failed to materialize, and the strangest aspect of all is how eagerly their supporters let them off the hook without any scrutiny or criticism despite obviously failing or even refusing to deliver what was once promised.
 
A101
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:07 am

Klaus wrote:
I'm really lost with all this preoccupation on passports

Really? It was a major Brexit propaganda point and it kept popping up when people were asked about their reasons for voting Leave and for the Tories, so it deserves remembering.


So what a lot a of different things were said during the campaign, and each have there own merits to the debate, the remain campaign have also said many stupid things as well but I don't see you regurgitating those silly things. its been 3 years since the campaign for the referenda. but it seems a lot of people have so much hatred that they cant let go of the past and seem to be still in full blown campaign mode like its going to change history or something.

Klaus wrote:
It is peculiar how easily the Leave leadership has divorced itself from almost all of the original claims and promises as soon as those were either deemed impractical or simply failed to materialize, and the strangest aspect of all is how eagerly their supporters let them off the hook without any scrutiny or criticism despite obviously failing or even refusing to deliver what was once promised.


In politics its called course correction which happens across the spectrum of the political divide, nothing new its been happening for centuries around the globe
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3286
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:03 am

course correction I woudnt call it any longer; the destination has radically changed meanwhile, as evidenced by my previous post containing the summary of the constant backsliding in Mr. Gove's prefered landing zones over the past 3 years...

The UK seems to suffer from post-colonial trauma, often seen in the early stages of independence of a colony when a new nation feels the need to break all ties with its former coloniser and feels comfort in trying to distance itself as much as it can to show it is no longer bound to it by any means...

The only truly remarkable thing here is it's a purely imaginary trauma, since no such relationship ever existed!
 
A101
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:03 am

sabenapilot wrote:

course correction I woudnt call it any longer; the destination has radically changed meanwhile, as evidenced by my previous post containing the summary of the constant backsliding in Mr. Gove's prefered landing zones over the past 3 years...


The destination remains the same a successful outcome with a FTA, then we can all move on to more pressing matters
 
olle
Posts: 2026
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:02 am

A101 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:

course correction I woudnt call it any longer; the destination has radically changed meanwhile, as evidenced by my previous post containing the summary of the constant backsliding in Mr. Gove's prefered landing zones over the past 3 years...


The destination remains the same a successful outcome with a FTA, then we can all move on to more pressing matters


I just do not see how EU UK will be able to have functional FTA negotiations when the UK government and now ex brexiteer campainers, only farage missing, do not seems to have any will to understand and do analisis on advance problems.

This seems to have become a UK elite problem. The whole UK government seems to include ex pupils from the elite universities and boarding schools, and they seems embarrased to listen to experts and people that really like to do some hard work on the subject. For me the whole brexit campain sums up with David Davids approach to the A50 negotiations. Totally unproffessional, unprepared with an idea that we are Brittish we shall do some show with Ms Merkel and this is all over. They do not even seems to recognize that A50 is over, EU today is what used to be called EU27 and EU do not consider itself working for the best of UK anymore. Now the FTA has been started between 2 very different sized parties.

To be Brittish today for many people that has been following brexit negotiations and now FTA negotiations means something we do not want to be. Unproffessional, arrogant, showing around.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:12 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Is football teams now how nations identify themselves?

Yeah, national football teams are indeed one of the more visible embodiments of national identification, and the UK with its split teams always looked like an outsider there!


It has been the case since long before you and I were born.

I am sorry if it offends you so much.


yes, it was. Each team representing different nations, as national teams do that by definition. Nation and sovereign state are not the same thing. The UK is one state made up of several nations.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
A101
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:28 am

Olle wrote:

just do not see how EU UK will be able to have functional FTA negotiations when the UK government and now ex brexiteer campainers, only farage missing, do not seems to have any will to understand and do analisis on advance problems.



I said a few of pages ago the divide between the EU/UK is too great to have one done this year

Olle wrote:

This seems to have become a UK elite problem. The whole UK government seems to include ex pupils from the elite universities and boarding schools, and they seems embarrased to listen to experts and people that really like to do some hard work on the subject.



While the majority within cabinet will no doubt have higher education it’s actually not a prerequisite to become an MP.

Cabinet will be getting advice from a number of different source they will listen but ultimately they will make decisions within the bounds of policy from the government of the day, it’s nothing to do with being embarrassed at all. It comes down to the EU having their position as will the UK, they will sit down and try and come to an agreement nearest to its own position they will either achieve that or they won’t.





Olle wrote:

For me the whole brexit campain sums up with David Davids approach to the A50 negotiations. Totally unproffessional, unprepared with an idea that we are Brittish we shall do some show with Ms Merkel and this is all over. They do not even seems to recognize that A50 is over, EU today is what used to be called EU27 and EU do not consider itself working for the best of UK anymore. Now the FTA has been started between 2 very different sized parties.


Just like Michel Barnier negotiates from what member nations mandate so to did the UK negotiations team. The government was totally unprepared for what will happen. Theresa May didn’t see it as reforms in which the UK interacts with the rest of the world all May’s was concerned with was remaining tied to the CU/SM and that showed by her non existent negotiations strategy



Olle wrote:
To be Brittish today for many people that has been following brexit negotiations and now FTA negotiations means something we do not want to be. Unproffessional, arrogant, showing around.


You are looking for a team that’s infallible, confident and unpretentiousness, you will never find it anywhere in the world
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 9627
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:35 am

A101 wrote:
I'm really lost with all this preoccupation on passports or footy teams, its a non issue to me what colour it is. where its made irks me but that's out of my hands its was made under a pro EU PM and government which had two priorities appease the EU and save money.

About the passports its really just a sovereign decision that makes them stand apart from the current harmonisation from the EU. The only real important distinction from my point of view is that it no longer starts with EUROPEAN UNION that's good enough for me at the moment


These posts just try to belittle the ideas behind Brexit, as there is no good argument against controlling the fortunes of your own country.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3286
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:13 am

A101 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:

course correction I woudnt call it any longer; the destination has radically changed meanwhile, as evidenced by my previous post containing the summary of the constant backsliding in Mr. Gove's prefered landing zones over the past 3 years...


The destination remains the same: a successful outcome with a FTA, then we can all move on to more pressing matters


But is it still the destination, I wonder?

You can indeed argue that all of the previous incarnations of what Brexit would lead to were to pass through soms sort of a comprehensive agreement on freedom in trade, and that as such it is just the level of ambition that got tuned down over time (most noteworthy in the last version where the abundance of 'plusses' were taken off the Canada deal as you must have noticed yourself too), but the most recent decision by the British government to backtrack on the commitments made in the PD on the LPF means it simply is not possible to reach any sort of a deal any longer, unless somehow the EU would surprisingly give in on key issues like state aid.

There's an interesting comment on bloomberg.com today which highlights exactly this problem of inherent incompatibility of the opening positions, and why it is all but a given that somewhere mid year, the talks will break down over this.

So either the British government genuinely thinks that somehow the EU will change minds, which might indeed be the hopes of some in that government still as the idea seems to be quite widespread amongst Tories that the poor British performance during the previous negotiations was not because of the weak negotiating position the country itself is in, but rather by the weak negotiators themselves; or a breakdown -and its full consequences- are just accepted as part of the total cost of Brexit, which would be fully in line with the repeated claim as of recent that it a political imperative to be willing to go down this path to restore the bond between people and govenment, notwithstanding the fact it does not make economic sense to go over the cliffedge and I doubt many voted to get any poorer through the process of Brexit.

So my bet is that somewhere mid summer, neogtiations will break down and trade between the UK and the EU will be conducted on WTO terms as from next year.

Looking further out in time (and thus less sure about it) I see:
- a UK-US FTA signed (but not ratified) relatively quickly (important in the mind of Brexiteers, as that will put the US before the EU) under which the UK market will be flooded with US consumer goods and the famous clorinated chicken, although the NHS will be kept out of it (the landing zone is quite clear for months): FWIW this will make good about 1/5th of what is lost with the EU....
- a significant economic shock for the UK economy in 2021, which will be taken as collateral damage and mitigated by massive government spending, thus inflating the budget deficit further: problems for later, they will say....
- an EU decision to give equivalance to British based financial insitutions but for the time being, while concerted efforts to make it possible to end this state in the near future are stepped up by the EC and supported by the ECB....
- some surprise annoucements from key industrial players in the UK: Airbus setting up a second line for wing production in Spain, but Nissan Sunderland staying in the UK (due to a no longer secret guarantee in which the UK pays billions to keep this high profile industry in house), although many other lower profile industrial companies will move (part of their produciton) out of the UK.
- the refusal of the UK to live up to the WA, notably on the provisions on the need to establish customs checks down the Irish sea, which in itself is worthy of a speculative topic on the full consequences of this: RoI being effectively locked out of the SM as they refuse to close the border with NI, the nationalists in NI calling for a border poll (refused by BoJo), and the return of the troubles (albeit in a lighter form for now)....
- a fish war in the northsea with the EU not preventing its fishermen to continue fishing in British waters and the UK navy unable to effectively prevent them all from doing so (possibly even with some French navy ships intervening softly in defence of French fisherboats in the Channel itself).
- a British government which happily fulminates against the EU as if it was some hostile country for a couple of years to stir up emotions and distract the minds, thus conveniently masking the economic situation, blaming all that goes wrong on those damn Europeans (what a convenience they trained so well over the past decades...)
and then in a few years time, when the minds have calmed a fair bit in Westminster and the economic reality has finally sunk in, a FTA after all, which will then be sold as a victory, because the EU will allegedly have accepted any British rules which diverged meanwhile as equivalent, even though in return their will be a mutual guarantee not to further alter any of them, unless in concertation with the other party.

It's a real pitty if it has to go via a no deal first, because it means the British economy will have to adjust twice, once at a massive cost even, but it seems to be politically inevitable now to do it this way, as too far many people in government have built their personal career on what they call a politically successful outcome of Brexit, so they can not now be seen to give in: others will have to do that if and when they will have taken over their place, so they first have to have their chance at it... and be seen as clearly underelivering versus the massive expectations they have raised in the minds of the people. Only then rational solutions can come back on the table which will put the economy first again: at present this is not the case, hence you can not reach a FTA.
 
A101
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:30 am

sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:

course correction I woudnt call it any longer; the destination has radically changed meanwhile, as evidenced by my previous post containing the summary of the constant backsliding in Mr. Gove's prefered landing zones over the past 3 years...


The destination remains the same: a successful outcome with a FTA, then we can all move on to more pressing matters


But is it still the destination, I wonder?

You can indeed argue that all of the previous incarnations of what Brexit would lead to were to pass through soms sort of a comprehensive agreement on freedom in trade, and that as such it is just the level of ambition that got tuned down over time (most noteworthy in the last version where the abundance of 'plusses' were taken off the Canada deal as you must have noticed yourself too), but the most recent decision by the British government to backtrack on the commitments made in the PD on the LPF means it simply is not possible to reach any sort of a deal any longer, unless somehow the EU would surprisingly give in on key issues like state aid.

There's an interesting comment on bloomberg.com today which highlights exactly this problem of inherent incompatibility of the opening positions, and why it is all but a given that somewhere mid year, the talks will break down over this.

So either the British government genuinely thinks that somehow the EU will change minds, which might indeed be the hopes of some in that government still as the idea seems to be quite widespread amongst Tories that the poor British performance during the previous negotiations was not because of the weak negotiating position the country itself is in, but rather by the weak negotiators themselves; or a breakdown -and its full consequences- are just accepted as part of the total cost of Brexit, which would be fully in line with the repeated claim as of recent that it a political imperative to be willing to go down this path to restore the bond between people and govenment, notwithstanding the fact it does not make economic sense to go over the cliffedge and I doubt many voted to get any poorer through the process of Brexit.

So my bet is that somewhere mid summer, neogtiations will break down and trade between the UK and the EU will be conducted on WTO terms as from next year.

Looking further out in time (and thus less sure about it) I see:
- a UK-US FTA signed (but not ratified) relatively quickly (important in the mind of Brexiteers, as that will put the US before the EU) under which the UK market will be flooded with US consumer goods and the famous clorinated chicken, although the NHS will be kept out of it (the landing zone is quite clear for months): FWIW this will make good about 1/5th of what is lost with the EU....
- a significant economic shock for the UK economy in 2021, which will be taken as collateral damage and mitigated by massive government spending, thus inflating the budget deficit further: problems for later, they will say....
- an EU decision to give equivalance to British based financial insitutions but for the time being, while concerted efforts to make it possible to end this state in the near future are stepped up by the EC and supported by the ECB....
- some surprise annoucements from key industrial players in the UK: Airbus setting up a second line for wing production in Spain, but Nissan Sunderland staying in the UK (due to a no longer secret guarantee in which the UK pays billions to keep this high profile industry in house), although many other lower profile industrial companies will move (part of their produciton) out of the UK.
- the refusal of the UK to live up to the WA, notably on the provisions on the need to establish customs checks down the Irish sea, which in itself is worthy of a speculative topic on the full consequences of this: RoI being effectively locked out of the SM as they refuse to close the border with NI, the nationalists in NI calling for a border poll (refused by BoJo), and the return of the troubles (albeit in a lighter form for now)....
- a fish war in the northsea with the EU not preventing its fishermen to continue fishing in British waters and the UK navy unable to effectively prevent them all from doing so (possibly even with some French navy ships intervening softly in defence of French fisherboats in the Channel itself).
- a British government which happily fulminates against the EU as if it was some hostile country for a couple of years to stir up emotions and distract the minds, thus conveniently masking the economic situation, blaming all that goes wrong on those damn Europeans (what a convenience they trained so well over the past decades...)
and then in a few years time, when the minds have calmed a fair bit in Westminster and the economic reality has finally sunk in, a FTA after all, which will then be sold as a victory, because the EU will allegedly have accepted any British rules which diverged meanwhile as equivalent, even though in return their will be a mutual guarantee not to further alter any of them, unless in concertation with the other party.

It's a real pitty if it has to go via a no deal first, because it means the British economy will have to adjust twice, once at a massive cost even, but it seems to be politically inevitable now to do it this way, as too far many people in government have built their personal career on what they call a politically successful outcome of Brexit, so they can not now be seen to give in: others will have to do that if and when they will have taken over their place, so they first have to have their chance at it... and be seen as clearly underelivering versus the massive expectations they have raised in the minds of the people. Only then rational solutions can come back on the table which will put the economy first again: at present this is not the case, hence you can not reach a FTA.



Well let’s reflect in about 12mths time on your clairvoyant skills
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3286
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:45 am

A101 wrote:
Well let’s reflect in about 12mths time on your clairvoyant skills



Well, like they say in disclaimers on financial products: 'past success does not guarantee future performance'
.

Always curious to read what you personally think will happen however:
a deal?
and who'll give in then? or both parties?
and on what (each)?
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12875
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:47 am

sabenapilot wrote:
but Nissan Sunderland staying in the UK (due to a no longer secret guarantee in which the UK pays billions to keep this high profile industry in house), although many other lower profile industrial companies will move (part of their produciton) out of the UK..


And that is a guaranteed way to find themselves in front of a WTO tribunal and while Nissan may be fine, some exporters will pay for that.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3286
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:13 am

tommy1808 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
but Nissan Sunderland staying in the UK (due to a no longer secret guarantee in which the UK pays billions to keep this high profile industry in house), although many other lower profile industrial companies will move (part of their produciton) out of the UK..


And that is a guaranteed way to find themselves in front of a WTO tribunal and while Nissan may be fine, some exporters will pay for that.

best regards
Thomas


I agree, but you can add that to the ever growing category labelled 'problems for later'.

The UK government has come to prioritize politics before economy: they MUST be seen to finally hold the upper hand and ultimately get their way, even if it means changing their goal to the only outcome possible in such a case, i.e. 'no deal'.

And to make sure this outcome is also seen as a win by the people of the UK, since it differs quite a lot from what was initially promissed and what they themselves had aimed for initially, Brexiteers are even willing to spend whatever it takes to offset the economic consequences of their act...
Just you wait for the revised budget that should be presented somewhere next month: I bet we'll learn there is a magical money tree growing in the backgarden of Nr 10 after all then.

In such a context, you'll see this government break whatever legal, fiscal and economic rule needed to be seen to deliver.

of course, this is untenable in the long run, but the onus is so important, that only the short term is currently being looked at by them: they are effectively in survival mode now.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
A101
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:14 am

tommy1808 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
but Nissan Sunderland staying in the UK (due to a no longer secret guarantee in which the UK pays billions to keep this high profile industry in house), although many other lower profile industrial companies will move (part of their produciton) out of the UK..


And that is a guaranteed way to find themselves in front of a WTO tribunal and while Nissan may be fine, some exporters will pay for that.

best regards
Thomas


Didn’t stop the Australian Government from giving GM a couple of billion in subsidies over a decade or so, or even the French government of state aid to Peugeot, Germany has also provided subsidies to German car manufacturing
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3286
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:27 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
but Nissan Sunderland staying in the UK (due to a no longer secret guarantee in which the UK pays billions to keep this high profile industry in house), although many other lower profile industrial companies will move (part of their produciton) out of the UK..


And that is a guaranteed way to find themselves in front of a WTO tribunal and while Nissan may be fine, some exporters will pay for that.

best regards
Thomas


Didn’t stop the Australian Government from giving GM a couple of billion in subsidies over a decade or so, or even the French government of state aid to Peugeot, Germany has also provided subsidies to German car manufacturing


Yet you can not subsidize every single company in the UK.
If it makes no sense to use the UK as manufacturing basis for Europe any longer, private companies will readjust as time goes by: it's an economic law .
What you'll see the UK government do is to subsidize only those that make most sense to preserve their own image with: those they know would symbolize failure of Brexit, hence this one has long been singled out and guaranteed to be isolated from any economic outfall by TM (well documented btw), while thousands of others will be left out in the pouring rain (because it's unaffordable/bankrupting to do this for all).
it's simply politics, not economics at play here: ironically you'll see a Tory government do, what a Labour government would be expected to do to preserve an ideology-driven economic vision.
And equally true, you'll see tremendous pressure on companies who's shareholding structure contains EU government vehicles to be swift at relocating their production back to the EU: most notably Airbus as that one is a symbolic company too. Pretty sure the A350 wing is the last wing ever to be built in the UK... Spain is the new place to be for Airbus wings.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:33 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
but Nissan Sunderland staying in the UK (due to a no longer secret guarantee in which the UK pays billions to keep this high profile industry in house), although many other lower profile industrial companies will move (part of their produciton) out of the UK..


And that is a guaranteed way to find themselves in front of a WTO tribunal and while Nissan may be fine, some exporters will pay for that.

best regards
Thomas


Didn’t stop the Australian Government from giving GM a couple of billion in subsidies over a decade or so, or even the French government of state aid to Peugeot, Germany has also provided subsidies to German car manufacturing


some of Australia´s subsidies where void import duties in principle available to all companies, and non of which was an open ended "we cover all costs" kind of deal, and state aid and subsidy are not the same.

EU rules are applied prospectively, this is different from this. In fact it was probably illegal for the UK to make that commitment to Nissan. However, subsidies under WTO rules are actionable, but not strictly prohibited, so Germany, France and Australia got away because no one complained.

If you think the EU is not going to react to a open ended "all cost" subsidized competitor 25 miles of the coast... think again.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
A101
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:37 am

Sabenapilot wrote:

And to make sure this outcome is also seen as a win by the people of the UK, since it differs quite a lot from what was initially promissed and what they themselves had aimed for initially,



I don’t actully remember anyone from the government actually promise the outcome what the future relationship would be. They definite outcome suggested by the Cameron government we would be leaving the CU/SM and would then have to negotiate a deal with the EU. No one promised anything because no one was in a position to promise anything.
 
A101
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:42 am

sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

And that is a guaranteed way to find themselves in front of a WTO tribunal and while Nissan may be fine, some exporters will pay for that.

best regards
Thomas


Didn’t stop the Australian Government from giving GM a couple of billion in subsidies over a decade or so, or even the French government of state aid to Peugeot, Germany has also provided subsidies to German car manufacturing


Yet you can not subsidize every single company in the UK.
If it makes no sense to use the UK as manufacturing basis for Europe any longer, private companies will readjust as time goes by: it's an economic law .
What you'll see the UK government do is to subsidize only those that make most sense to preserve their own image with: those they know would symbolize failure of Brexit, hence this one has long been singled out and guaranteed to be isolated from any economic outfall by TM (well documented btw), while thousands of others will be left out in the pouring rain (because it's unaffordable/bankrupting to do this for all).
it's simply politics, not economics at play here: ironically you'll see a Tory government do, what a Labour government would be expected to do to preserve an ideology-driven economic vision.
And equally true, you'll see tremendous pressure on companies who's shareholding structure contains EU government vehicles to be swift at relocating their production back to the EU: most notably Airbus as that one is a symbolic company too. Pretty sure the A350 wing is the last wing ever to be built in the UK... Spain is the new place to be for Airbus wings.



Well that’s wrong for a start a subsidy dosen’t have to mean direct financial input it can be a form of industry tax incentives there’s a mirrored way of making subsidies
 
A101
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:45 am

tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

And that is a guaranteed way to find themselves in front of a WTO tribunal and while Nissan may be fine, some exporters will pay for that.

best regards
Thomas


Didn’t stop the Australian Government from giving GM a couple of billion in subsidies over a decade or so, or even the French government of state aid to Peugeot, Germany has also provided subsidies to German car manufacturing


some of Australia´s subsidies where void import duties in principle available to all companies, and non of which was an open ended "we cover all costs" kind of deal, and state aid and subsidy are not the same.

EU rules are applied prospectively, this is different from this. In fact it was probably illegal for the UK to make that commitment to Nissan. However, subsidies under WTO rules are actionable, but not strictly prohibited, so Germany, France and Australia got away because no one complained.

If you think the EU is not going to react to a open ended "all cost" subsidized competitor 25 miles of the coast... think again.

best regards
Thomas


Have you actually read what the government is doing for Nissan lots of speculation but I have seen no document confirming anything
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:48 am

A101 wrote:
Sabenapilot wrote:

And to make sure this outcome is also seen as a win by the people of the UK, since it differs quite a lot from what was initially promissed and what they themselves had aimed for initially,



I don’t actully remember anyone from the government actually promise the outcome what the future relationship would be. They definite outcome suggested by the Cameron government we would be leaving the CU/SM and would then have to negotiate a deal with the EU. No one promised anything because no one was in a position to promise anything.


As I remember it the UK government explained that the brexit stand point eat the cake etc in the end meant leaving the CU/SM but this was considered from the brexit side as project fear and farage said in telivision a norway model was more in line what was going to happen. Also the brexit side always came back to that the FTA EU UK was going to be so simple to create leaving UK in the same situation as member, but no need to pay for it and no consequenses if UK did not follow EU regulation.

So the UK government presented the alternatives closer to the truth compared to the brexit side and I think most voted for the vision that the brexiteers presented.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:51 am

A101 wrote:
Sabenapilot wrote:

And to make sure this outcome is also seen as a win by the people of the UK, since it differs quite a lot from what was initially promissed and what they themselves had aimed for initially,



I don’t actully remember anyone from the government actually promise the outcome what the future relationship would be. They definite outcome suggested by the Cameron government we would be leaving the CU/SM and would then have to negotiate a deal with the EU. No one promised anything because no one was in a position to promise anything.



Several of the most prominent people in government today did depict quite a comfortable landing zone for the UK during the referendum campaign, yet that landing zone isn't even remotely where we're heading for now, is it? I mean: I doubt I need to quote Mr Gove or Mr Johnson on this specific topic, do I?

It suffices to agree with you in saying that the government at the time of the referendum did predict a fairly rough landing zone indeed, quite accurately in hindsight BTW, yet that this was repeatedly labeled as project fear by those now in government to show that clearly those now in government must have made a different assessment of the economic options available... or it wouldn't have been possible to lable to competing project 'project fear' now, would it? ;)
 
tommy1808
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:54 am

A101 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
A101 wrote:

Didn’t stop the Australian Government from giving GM a couple of billion in subsidies over a decade or so, or even the French government of state aid to Peugeot, Germany has also provided subsidies to German car manufacturing


some of Australia´s subsidies where void import duties in principle available to all companies, and non of which was an open ended "we cover all costs" kind of deal, and state aid and subsidy are not the same.

EU rules are applied prospectively, this is different from this. In fact it was probably illegal for the UK to make that commitment to Nissan. However, subsidies under WTO rules are actionable, but not strictly prohibited, so Germany, France and Australia got away because no one complained.

If you think the EU is not going to react to a open ended "all cost" subsidized competitor 25 miles of the coast... think again.

best regards
Thomas


Have you actually read what the government is doing for Nissan lots of speculation but I have seen no document confirming anything


Considering that all State aid not pre-approved by the EU is illegal the details are pretty much irrelevant.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... -in-the-uk

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3286
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:54 am

A101 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:

Didn’t stop the Australian Government from giving GM a couple of billion in subsidies over a decade or so, or even the French government of state aid to Peugeot, Germany has also provided subsidies to German car manufacturing


Yet you can not subsidize every single company in the UK.
If it makes no sense to use the UK as manufacturing basis for Europe any longer, private companies will readjust as time goes by: it's an economic law .
What you'll see the UK government do is to subsidize only those that make most sense to preserve their own image with: those they know would symbolize failure of Brexit, hence this one has long been singled out and guaranteed to be isolated from any economic outfall by TM (well documented btw), while thousands of others will be left out in the pouring rain (because it's unaffordable/bankrupting to do this for all).
it's simply politics, not economics at play here: ironically you'll see a Tory government do, what a Labour government would be expected to do to preserve an ideology-driven economic vision.
And equally true, you'll see tremendous pressure on companies who's shareholding structure contains EU government vehicles to be swift at relocating their production back to the EU: most notably Airbus as that one is a symbolic company too. Pretty sure the A350 wing is the last wing ever to be built in the UK... Spain is the new place to be for Airbus wings.



Well that’s wrong for a start a subsidy dosen’t have to mean direct financial input it can be a form of industry tax incentives there’s a mirrored way of making subsidies


Regardless the name or the method used, you can not do that for each and every company which becomes unprofitable post-Brexit...
Not unless you want to blow the budget deficit to unseen hights, that is, which interestingly was also the warning made by the former Chancellor the other day, when he reminded the rest of his Tory fellow MPs his party is a party of sensible fiscal policy... but not surprisingly he was pushed to the door by BoJo and his closest advisor, who increasingly seem to be on a mission to run the UK like Corbyn's Labour would, albeit not for the sake of socialism, but for the sake of making Brexit work.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:59 am

The current Tory government handles the budget in a way it was always saying was the reason never vote for a labour government with state aid and deficits.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:04 am

A101 wrote:
Have you actually read what the government is doing for Nissan lots of speculation but I have seen no document confirming anything


Do we have to?

The French government has allegedly read it in full, if one is to believe several reports in French financial and industrial publications, which would not be surprising at all, knowing Nissan"s ownership structure.

Reportedly, they have opted to respect the full confidentially of the deal as for now, but I take it they are using every bid of information from it to put it to their best use, be it to maximize the cost for the UK, as well as to guide the EC during the negotiations with the UK and to prepare any legal action at the WTO, later.
 
A101
Posts: 1951
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:20 am

sabenapilot wrote:
A101 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:

Yet you can not subsidize every single company in the UK.
If it makes no sense to use the UK as manufacturing basis for Europe any longer, private companies will readjust as time goes by: it's an economic law .
What you'll see the UK government do is to subsidize only those that make most sense to preserve their own image with: those they know would symbolize failure of Brexit, hence this one has long been singled out and guaranteed to be isolated from any economic outfall by TM (well documented btw), while thousands of others will be left out in the pouring rain (because it's unaffordable/bankrupting to do this for all).
it's simply politics, not economics at play here: ironically you'll see a Tory government do, what a Labour government would be expected to do to preserve an ideology-driven economic vision.
And equally true, you'll see tremendous pressure on companies who's shareholding structure contains EU government vehicles to be swift at relocating their production back to the EU: most notably Airbus as that one is a symbolic company too. Pretty sure the A350 wing is the last wing ever to be built in the UK... Spain is the new place to be for Airbus wings.



Well that’s wrong for a start a subsidy dosen’t have to mean direct financial input it can be a form of industry tax incentives there’s a mirrored way of making subsidies


Regardless the name or the method used, you can not do that for each and every company which becomes unprofitable post-Brexit...
Not unless you want to blow the budget deficit to unseen hights, that is, which interestingly was also the warning made by the former Chancellor the other day, when he reminded the rest of his Tory fellow MPs his party is a party of sensible fiscal policy... but not surprisingly he was pushed to the door by BoJo and his closest advisor, who increasingly seem to be on a mission to run the UK like Corbyn's Labour would, albeit not for the sake of socialism, but for the sake of making Brexit work.



Well of course there has to be a limit to the aid given, it’s actully a bit like shipbuilding in the UK while it might be more expensive it actually provides benefits to the economy in direct/indirect tax to the local/national economy, it’s subjective but I have seen reports that it’s worth approximately up to 30% depending on the project and the amount of local content in the build
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:21 am

olle wrote:
The current Tory government handles the budget in a way it was always saying was the reason never vote for a labour government with state aid and deficits.


Indeed!

Given that D. Cummings isn't a Conservative party member even, I'm increasingly convinced he's actually a socialist in hiding.
Yes, he's a passionate Brexiteer and therefor uncautiously taken onboard by BoJo, but other than sharing the same fetish belief in Brexit itself, he's nothing in common with a Tory at all!
The shape Brexit is currently taking and especially the reactions to the economic outfall by this Tory government is exactly the type of Britain Yeremy Corbyn would have loved to shape!
You just know something is terribly wrong when you hear a Tory Chancellor announce spending plans in his budget review and they seem to come straight out of a Labour manifesto of a couple of years ago!
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:43 pm

Klaus wrote:
Are there any things that are actually going the way the Leave politicians had claimed they would?


I'm sure that was a rhetorical question, but no... not one single thing has turned out the way any Brexit supporting politician has ever said it would.

It's really quite amazing how people don't recognise this. I thought 1984's doublespeak and doublethink was scary fiction - but apparently a third of the population are quite able to function like that.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:52 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
olle wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:

The UK is one nation.

England and Wales voted leave.

Other parts of the nation, Scotland and Northern Ireland did not.


Last time I heard UK was represented by several national teams in a number of sports. What do they know what UK government do not?


That was the case long since the EU.

Is football teams now how nations identify themselves?


Reading comprehension test failed. Must try harder.

The point was quite obviously that if there are multiple teams representing multiple nations then the UK is NOT "one nation"...

It doesn't help when discussing the UK that there are no unambiguous definitions for nation, state, country...
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:32 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Always curious to read what you personally think will happen however:
a deal?
and who'll give in then? or both parties?
and on what (each)?

We know the EU cannot give in, it is negotiating for 27 members and has the financial strength to loose the UK business.
The issue is whether the UK has the moral / mental strength to change its current way of life for future prospects without knowing what they actually are, do they have the brass to take a leap of faith and belief in their people? The jury is out on that, people are fickle and when they do not have a binding structure to control their actions, anything is possible.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:25 pm

The French European affairs minister, Amélie de Montchalin, came to London today to put the vision of the French government out and she did so quite bluntly:

the 2 main take aways:

- “We are not ready to sign any kind of a deal on 31 December at 11pm if the UK were willing to diverge on regulations, as that would require a hugely complicated 'line by line' negotiation on tariffs and border controls"

- "All the talk on the Australia model -which by the way does not exist- is for the birds as you say in the UK"

Seems like France is presenting the UK with a political dilemma: if it wants to stick to its self-imposed deadline, it is basically going to have to accept the EU's conditions so it can move fast; if not, then the French seem to imply they'll make sure there's not enough time to work out the full tariff plan for the type of FTA the UK wants (FWIW - CETA still has a tariff set and loads of specific rules on border checks which can not just be copied to the UK) and so BoJo will have to extend his self-imposed deadline…
Or he'll just decide to walk away now and default to WTO rules, but then he (or some other PM in future) will at some point in time come back to the EU to work out a more favourable tariff plan than the WTO option will offer and have to sign an associated FTA from an even weaker position than the one the UK is already in now.

In short: I think the French are starting to provoke BoJo to put his money where his big mouth is, knowing that if he does, he'll be lured into inflicting the greatest possible economic pain on his own country, which in future means a much weaker negotiating position WHEN (not IF) the UK decides to come back to the negotiating table in Brussels.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:51 pm

There is also the fact that the english seem to expect we will work toward accommodating Calais and the like magically for free as it please them.
Signature censored
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:23 pm

olle wrote:
The current Tory government handles the budget in a way it was always saying was the reason never vote for a labour government with state aid and deficits.


In a state of conflict the budget must not matter. The UK is fighting to defend it´s freedom the same way it fought in WW1 and WW2. It is a national necessity and it must be done regardless of the price or consequences. Surrender is not an option.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:49 pm

So this is a conflict equal to the world wars?

Has UK told EU? Or do we have a new war just started without official war declaration?

If UK is smart there is a number of examples where some troops can play germans in a attack on dover! The invasion is here!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:56 pm

By the way; UK employs 50 000 staff to handle customs declarations.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -says-gove

What can be the cost per week?
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 11614
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:59 pm

olle wrote:
By the way; UK employs 50 000 staff to handle customs declarations.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -says-gove

What can be the cost per week?


1/4?1/3 of a net EU membership?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
Posts: 2026
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:44 pm

Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:
By the way; UK employs 50 000 staff to handle customs declarations.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -says-gove

What can be the cost per week?


1/4?1/3 of a net EU membership?



It cannot be too many of these kind of expenses if NHS shall get anything....

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