Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

par13del · Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:37 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
According to Bloomberg, the decision to extend the transition period is all but taken and BoJo is just waiting to send the hand signed request for it to BRU in the hope his government has a better view on the economic impact of the corona pandemic on the british economy in a couple of weeks as well as an idea of just how much time is lost (and how much extra time thus must be asked for), although it is not clear if the EU is willing to extend the transition period in any other way than by at least one year...
”[/i]

To survive the economic crisis the EU will have to close ranks even further to protect / insulate itself from external threats, as the odd man out, the UK should either reconsider membership or move on, expecting it to get better to allow a more smooth Brexit will never happen. The world is going to be a very different place in the next couple years, since all nations will be doing the same including some economic retrenchment, why have two negotiations, one while still under the extension, then after those are finalized, resolved with the other third countries, you then try to figure out how to fit the UK in that new structure then negotiate Brexit?
Is any kind of Brexit going to be worse than what the situation presently is in the EU and the UK?

Klaus · Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:51 pm

There will certainly be some delays but the negotiations can of course continue in time.

And the UK will still be much worse off if after the Corona crisis it also chooses to crash out hard on top of everything else. That will become even more existential for the UK than it would have been already without that additional crisis.

noviorbis77 · Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:31 pm

Klaus wrote:
There will certainly be some delays but the negotiations can of course continue in time.

And the UK will still be much worse off if after the Corona crisis it also chooses to crash out hard on top of everything else. That will become even more existential for the UK than it would have been already without that additional crisis.

After CoVID19, many more may be crashing out

Klaus · Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:40 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
There will certainly be some delays but the negotiations can of course continue in time.

And the UK will still be much worse off if after the Corona crisis it also chooses to crash out hard on top of everything else. That will become even more existential for the UK than it would have been already without that additional crisis.

After CoVID19, many more may be crashing out

Those predictions of yours could not have been more wrong all those previous times and they're just as wrong now.

Doesn't sustained failure at this give you pause at some point...?

It would be utterly pointless and only massively destructive for any EU member country to follow the UK into that dead end.

noviorbis77 · Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:16 pm

Klaus wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
There will certainly be some delays but the negotiations can of course continue in time.

And the UK will still be much worse off if after the Corona crisis it also chooses to crash out hard on top of everything else. That will become even more existential for the UK than it would have been already without that additional crisis.

After CoVID19, many more may be crashing out

Those predictions of yours could not have been more wrong all those previous times and they're just as wrong now.

Doesn't sustained failure at this give you pause at some point...?

It would be utterly pointless and only massively destructive for any EU member country to follow the UK into that dead end.

Time will tell.

Klaus · Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:48 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:

After CoVID19, many more may be crashing out

Those predictions of yours could not have been more wrong all those previous times and they're just as wrong now.

Doesn't sustained failure at this give you pause at some point...?

It would be utterly pointless and only massively destructive for any EU member country to follow the UK into that dead end.

Time will tell.

Time is already speaking loudly to your previous claims being dead wrong, and there is no indication at all that this will change from here on out.

noviorbis77 · Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:53 pm

Klaus wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
Those predictions of yours could not have been more wrong all those previous times and they're just as wrong now.

Doesn't sustained failure at this give you pause at some point...?

It would be utterly pointless and only massively destructive for any EU member country to follow the UK into that dead end.

Time will tell.

Time is already speaking loudly to your previous claims being dead wrong, and there is no indication at all that this will change from here on out.

Who knows what will happen.

Klaus · Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:15 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Who knows what will happen.

Actually looking at what's really happening instead of letting oneself get caught up in wishful thinking, preconceptions and prejudice generally helps a lot!

A101 · Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:19 pm

Klaus wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Who knows what will happen.

Actually looking at what's really happening instead of letting oneself get caught up in wishful thinking, preconceptions and prejudice generally helps a lot!

And the current formal position by the Government remains the same........... no extension to the transition phase at this time.

Grizzly410 · Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:39 pm

I posted this two weeks ago :

Grizzly410 wrote:
Given the situation going on I think and hope the UK gov will take the opportunity to blame COVID-19 to request a TP extention to EU. Which would be obviously granted without drama.
It would be irresponsible otherwise.

I believe the extension is not a question anymore, just a problem to find the right timing to formalize it,
Covid-19 is the center of attention of the continent for the weeks to come, everybody agreed before that the timescale was very challenging so now it's obvious there is simply not enough ressources and time to negotiate and implement a deal in time... Status quo (BRINO actually :laughing:

) the time needed to recover from this crisis would be very reasonable solution for everybody.
Now, I do know that reasonable and Brexit doesn't marry well in the same sentence.

A101 · Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:43 am

Grizzly410 wrote:
I posted this two weeks ago :
Grizzly410 wrote:
Given the situation going on I think and hope the UK gov will take the opportunity to blame COVID-19 to request a TP extention to EU. Which would be obviously granted without drama.
It would be irresponsible otherwise.

I believe the extension is not a question anymore, just a problem to find the right timing to formalize it,
Covid-19 is the center of attention of the continent for the weeks to come, everybody agreed before that the timescale was very challenging so now it's obvious there is simply not enough ressources and time to negotiate and implement a deal in time... Status quo (BRINO actually ) the time needed to recover from this crisis would be very reasonable solution for everybody.
Now, I do know that reasonable and Brexit doesn't marry well in the same sentence.

An extension is not a given aspect either even if Johnson thinks about it, it will depend on the terms given by the EU monetary wise.

My personal belief is there should be no extension as it’s not like they might have made an agreement acceptable to either party before the deadline for asking for an extension. Border Force should be planning on the belief on no deal anyway

par13del · Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:58 am

Grizzly410 wrote:
I believe the extension is not a question anymore, just a problem to find the right timing to formalize it,
Covid-19 is the center of attention of the continent for the weeks to come, everybody agreed before that the timescale was very challenging so now it's obvious there is simply not enough ressources and time to negotiate and implement a deal in time... Status quo (BRINO actually ) the time needed to recover from this crisis would be very reasonable solution for everybody.
Now, I do know that reasonable and Brexit doesn't marry well in the same sentence.

The EU will be reforming to recover from Covid, where does Brexit fit in that, no where. Brexit is a UK problem, they chose to leave, the EU cannot consider the UK while implementing necessary reforms, if the UK extends the transition period, they will have to suck it up and implement and live by any new rules the EU implements, I do not see the EU having two sets of rules, those initially given to the UK and those now being adjusted to combat / recover.

If anything, I think this issue makes a hard Brexit more likely, the virus will be blamed for either scenario, continue the transition or leave.

It will be interesting to see how many non-EU nations start looking at changing / modifying trade deals in the coming months, since there is no cure as yet and all everyone is focused on is the curve, once that goes down what next, open countries and start the infection all over again? Note that most trade deals today in the era of globalization are not just about goods and services, but how and by whom they are done.

seahawk · Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:48 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
There will certainly be some delays but the negotiations can of course continue in time.

And the UK will still be much worse off if after the Corona crisis it also chooses to crash out hard on top of everything else. That will become even more existential for the UK than it would have been already without that additional crisis.

After CoVID19, many more may be crashing out

Italy and Spain are already showing strong support for leaving the EU.

94717 · Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:30 am

seahawk wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
There will certainly be some delays but the negotiations can of course continue in time.

And the UK will still be much worse off if after the Corona crisis it also chooses to crash out hard on top of everything else. That will become even more existential for the UK than it would have been already without that additional crisis.

After CoVID19, many more may be crashing out

Italy and Spain are already showing strong support for leaving the EU.

Italy and spain are using the case that nothern europe should sign of for dept to recover from this crisis.

Germany and other nothern countries agreed to the euro under condition that this was not going to happen, sweden opted out because of this.

Now things will change and nothern europe will have to take a bigger responibility. For doing this the citizens need to understand how they gain by doing so.

It already happened in the 2008 crisis.

But things takes time. Both north and south need to reform. Italy as example need to adress corruption and model of spending. Germany and sweden need to understand that increasing these markets will be of big advantagevfor its cotizen.

LJ · Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:37 am

seahawk wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
There will certainly be some delays but the negotiations can of course continue in time.

And the UK will still be much worse off if after the Corona crisis it also chooses to crash out hard on top of everything else. That will become even more existential for the UK than it would have been already without that additional crisis.

After CoVID19, many more may be crashing out

Italy and Spain are already showing strong support for leaving the EU.

They'll scream, but in the end need the money from the EU as well. In the end, they'll choose for the the money as it's not about "sovereignty" for them, but about getting more money without any conditions attached (different from the UK where "sovereignty" seems to be the most important aspect of leaving the EU). Moreover, they know that The Netherlands and Germany will cave in (at least partially) and that they'll get some of things they want/need. Actually, that's what's just happening at this moment.

JJJ · Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:49 am

seahawk wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Klaus wrote:
There will certainly be some delays but the negotiations can of course continue in time.

And the UK will still be much worse off if after the Corona crisis it also chooses to crash out hard on top of everything else. That will become even more existential for the UK than it would have been already without that additional crisis.

After CoVID19, many more may be crashing out

Italy and Spain are already showing strong support for leaving the EU.

Source?

JJJ · Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:50 am

LJ wrote:
seahawk wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:

After CoVID19, many more may be crashing out

Italy and Spain are already showing strong support for leaving the EU.

They'll scream, but in the end need the money from the EU as well. In the end, they'll choose for the the money as it's not about "sovereignty" for them, but about getting more money without any conditions attached (different from the UK where "sovereignty" seems to be the most important aspect of leaving the EU). Moreover, they know that The Netherlands and Germany will cave in (at least partially) and that they'll get some of things they want/need. Actually, that's what's just happening at this moment.

Italy and Spain are both net contributors.

seahawk · Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:27 am

JJJ wrote:
seahawk wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:

After CoVID19, many more may be crashing out

Italy and Spain are already showing strong support for leaving the EU.

Source?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... rona-bonds

JJJ · Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:09 pm

seahawk wrote:
JJJ wrote:
seahawk wrote:

Italy and Spain are already showing strong support for leaving the EU.

Source?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/12 ... rona-bonds

Thought so.

LJ · Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:27 pm

JJJ wrote:
LJ wrote:
seahawk wrote:

Italy and Spain are already showing strong support for leaving the EU.

They'll scream, but in the end need the money from the EU as well. In the end, they'll choose for the the money as it's not about "sovereignty" for them, but about getting more money without any conditions attached (different from the UK where "sovereignty" seems to be the most important aspect of leaving the EU). Moreover, they know that The Netherlands and Germany will cave in (at least partially) and that they'll get some of things they want/need. Actually, that's what's just happening at this moment.

Italy and Spain are both net contributors.

Italy is, Spain isn't (depending on how you calculate it it's either almost on the break-even point or somewhat under it). However, that's not my argument. Italy needs to sell it's goods, and France and Germany are its main export markets (though only 25% the two combined). More important, the EUR enables them to lend relatively cheap (despite the extra basis points on Italian sovereigns). That's a very good reason for them to stick around (even though they dislike the EU).

https://www.statista.com/chart/18794/net-contributors-to-eu-budget/

noviorbis77 · Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:08 pm

Klaus wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Who knows what will happen.

Actually looking at what's really happening instead of letting oneself get caught up in wishful thinking, preconceptions and prejudice generally helps a lot!

It is not wishful thinking.

I couldn’t care less TBH if other countries chose to jump ship. Whether they end up doing it, none of us could possibly know at the moment.

Grizzly410 · Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:28 pm

A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
I posted this two weeks ago :
Grizzly410 wrote:
Given the situation going on I think and hope the UK gov will take the opportunity to blame COVID-19 to request a TP extention to EU. Which would be obviously granted without drama.
It would be irresponsible otherwise.

I believe the extension is not a question anymore, just a problem to find the right timing to formalize it,
Covid-19 is the center of attention of the continent for the weeks to come, everybody agreed before that the timescale was very challenging so now it's obvious there is simply not enough ressources and time to negotiate and implement a deal in time... Status quo (BRINO actually ) the time needed to recover from this crisis would be very reasonable solution for everybody.
Now, I do know that reasonable and Brexit doesn't marry well in the same sentence.

An extension is not a given aspect either even if Johnson thinks about it, it will depend on the terms given by the EU monetary wise.

My personal belief is there should be no extension as it’s not like they might have made an agreement acceptable to either party before the deadline for asking for an extension. Border Force should be planning on the belief on no deal anyway

33 weeks left and nobody is working on the necessary arrangments because focusing on the COVID crisis. Even with a comprehensive deal it's maybe already impossible to prepare for the shift on december 31st, forget about no deal if you have a little bit of common sense left. Have you ?

Monetary wise, even if the contribution have to increase it remains a cheap bargain to continue as is... Remember, the EASA withdrawal alone is plan to cost 3-4 billions GBP each year when the EASA contribution is something like 300 millions. End EASA is just a very, very small part of the picture. We established long ago the yearly contribution is peanuts for a country, there is just some extremists tabloid reader to think 10-15 billions €uros paid to enjoy a lot of benefits can somehow be an issue.

94717 · Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:43 pm

So now the moment of truth.... UK can walk away.....

Grizzly410 · Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:57 pm

olle wrote:
So now the moment of truth.... UK can walk away.....

Because it couldn't on the first three occasions when it decided to request art50 extension ?

frmrCapCadet · Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:55 pm

UK has its own money - that is likely the most useful piece of sovereignty a trading nation needs, both for trade, and for protecting citizens income and savings.

JJJ · Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:55 pm

LJ wrote:
JJJ wrote:
LJ wrote:

They'll scream, but in the end need the money from the EU as well. In the end, they'll choose for the the money as it's not about "sovereignty" for them, but about getting more money without any conditions attached (different from the UK where "sovereignty" seems to be the most important aspect of leaving the EU). Moreover, they know that The Netherlands and Germany will cave in (at least partially) and that they'll get some of things they want/need. Actually, that's what's just happening at this moment.

Italy and Spain are both net contributors.

Italy is, Spain isn't (depending on how you calculate it it's either almost on the break-even point or somewhat under it).

Spain became a net contributor again in 2019:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.europa ... 41110.html

[/quote]However, that's not my argument. Italy needs to sell it's goods, and France and Germany are its main export markets (though only 25% the two combined). More important, the EUR enables them to lend relatively cheap (despite the extra basis points on Italian sovereigns). That's a very good reason for them to stick around (even though they dislike the EU)[/quote]

Fair enough.

A101 · Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:50 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:

33 weeks left and nobody is working on the necessary arrangments because focusing on the COVID crisis. Even with a comprehensive deal it's maybe already impossible to prepare for the shift on december 31st, forget about no deal if you have a little bit of common sense left. Have you ?

I would not say everyone is working on covid-19 but the majority yes , the government still has to perform its core functions, transition planning was all ways going to be hard either way.

We were never going to find common ground for a comprehensive agreement that was never going to happen there is still time on both sides to agree on a rudimentary agreement to happen by the end of the year. with Border Force still have to move to a new customs regime either way

Grizzly410 wrote:
Monetary wise, even if the contribution have to increase it remains a cheap bargain to continue as is... Remember, the EASA withdrawal alone is plan to cost 3-4 billions GBP each year when the EASA contribution is something like 300 millions. End EASA is just a very, very small part of the picture. We established long ago the yearly contribution is peanuts for a country, there is just some extremists tabloid reader to think 10-15 billions €uros paid to enjoy a lot of benefits can somehow be an issue.

Removing the last vestiges of the EU is paramount to the psychological mindset within government and majority of the electorate.

Extending the transition is not only an economic concern there will also be very real concerns within government if we stay as we are that as the EU emerges from the ravages of Covid-19 the EU will have the ability to alter UK law in a way the UK does not want to move and that could potentially have a far bigger impact on the UK than continuing with no deal

A101 · Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:57 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
olle wrote:
So now the moment of truth.... UK can walk away.....

Because it couldn't on the first three occasions when it decided to request art50 extension ?

The first two extensions under May were political motivated and the last was via UK law, but the common denominator was a very pro remain hostile parliament, very different kettle of fish this time round.

Grizzly410 · Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:02 pm

A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
olle wrote:
So now the moment of truth.... UK can walk away.....

Because it couldn't on the first three occasions when it decided to request art50 extension ?

The first two extensions under May were political motivated and the last was via UK law, but the common denominator was a very pro remain hostile parliament, very different kettle of fish this time round.

You can dress it up the way you want that doesn't change anything to the fact UK could have walk away on three previous occasion.
And didn't.

A101 · Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:11 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:

Because it couldn't on the first three occasions when it decided to request art50 extension ?

The first two extensions under May were political motivated and the last was via UK law, but the common denominator was a very pro remain hostile parliament, very different kettle of fish this time round.

You can dress it up the way you want that doesn't change anything to the fact UK could have walk away on three previous occasion.
And didn't.

I’m not dressing anything just stating a facts on why the UK extended. Two were political decisions and really about political survival and one by law nothing changes those facts.

Grizzly410 · Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:38 pm

A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
A101 wrote:

The first two extensions under May were political motivated and the last was via UK law, but the common denominator was a very pro remain hostile parliament, very different kettle of fish this time round.

You can dress it up the way you want that doesn't change anything to the fact UK could have walk away on three previous occasion.
And didn't.

I’m not dressing anything just stating a facts on why the UK extended. Two were political decisions and really about political survival and one by law nothing changes those facts.

I can also state water is wet as a fact. But like your explanation that doesn't answer to Olle post : So now the moment of truth.... UK can walk away.....
The UK could have walked away without deal earlier, in 3 occasions, but finaly agreed the WA.

Moment of truth passed long time ago now, if "no deal" could have been something before, it's now clear it is an empty option even if you refuse to admit it. Sorry.
I think you won't even have to wait end of this year to figure this out, in less than 3 months that should be clear. Don't worry, after "May the traitor" and UK law you'll be able to blame the COVID-19 imported by Italians or Spanish, whatever, but of course something not UK originated! (unlike a stupidly tight deadline)

COVID-19 just offers a perfect occasion to Bojo to buy for free a much needed time to build a deal, he rightfully won't pass on the opportunity.

A101 · Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:55 pm

Grizzly410 wrote:
A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:

You can dress it up the way you want that doesn't change anything to the fact UK could have walk away on three previous occasion.
And didn't.

I’m not dressing anything just stating a facts on why the UK extended. Two were political decisions and really about political survival and one by law nothing changes those facts.

I can also state water is wet as a fact. But like your explanation that doesn't answer to Olle post : So now the moment of truth.... UK can walk away.....
The UK could have walked away without deal earlier, in 3 occasions, but finaly agreed the WA.

Moment of truth passed long time ago now, if "no deal" could have been something before, it's now clear it is an empty option even if you refuse to admit it. Sorry.
I think you won't even have to wait end of this year to figure this out, in less than 3 months that should be clear. Don't worry, after "May the traitor" and UK law you'll be able to blame the COVID-19 imported by Italians or Spanish, whatever, but of course something not UK originated! (unlike a stupidly tight deadline)

COVID-19 just offers a perfect occasion to Bojo to buy for free a much needed time to build a deal, he rightfully won't pass on the opportunity.

You are alluding to political skullduggery that’s been going on for time immemorial, the EU has the same option they do not have to accept extensions but they did, it takes two to tango

gkirk · Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:30 pm

A101 wrote:

You are alluding to political skullduggery that’s been going on for time immemorial, the EU has the same option they do not have to accept extensions but they did, it takes two to tango

Presumably because the EU don't want to see the remainers in the UK be dragged down by the shambles that the leave campaigners have created.

The EU have a heart. Brexit, does not

A101 · Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:42 pm

gkirk wrote:
A101 wrote:

You are alluding to political skullduggery that’s been going on for time immemorial, the EU has the same option they do not have to accept extensions but they did, it takes two to tango

Presumably because the EU don't want to see the remainers in the UK be dragged down by the shambles that the leave campaigners have created.

The EU have a heart. Brexit, does not

that would have been the furthest thing on Brussels mind. The only reasons are perception and self interest, it’s the nature of any political beast the world over.

Grizzly410 · Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:16 am

A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
A101 wrote:

I’m not dressing anything just stating a facts on why the UK extended. Two were political decisions and really about political survival and one by law nothing changes those facts.

I can also state water is wet as a fact. But like your explanation that doesn't answer to Olle post : So now the moment of truth.... UK can walk away.....
The UK could have walked away without deal earlier, in 3 occasions, but finaly agreed the WA.

Moment of truth passed long time ago now, if "no deal" could have been something before, it's now clear it is an empty option even if you refuse to admit it. Sorry.
I think you won't even have to wait end of this year to figure this out, in less than 3 months that should be clear. Don't worry, after "May the traitor" and UK law you'll be able to blame the COVID-19 imported by Italians or Spanish, whatever, but of course something not UK originated! (unlike a stupidly tight deadline)

COVID-19 just offers a perfect occasion to Bojo to buy for free a much needed time to build a deal, he rightfully won't pass on the opportunity.

You are alluding to political skullduggery that’s been going on for time immemorial, the EU has the same option they do not have to accept extensions but they did, it takes two to tango

The MASSIVE difference is that EU is only receiver of UK decision. And always mentioned it would have prefered UK to remain a member.
I'm pretty sure ALL previous Tusk, Junker and Barnier official statement have a sentence expressing the EU regrets on UK decision. Nearly nobody on EU side was threatening or even casting a doubt, it always have been clear that any art50 extention request would have been granted because EU just didn't want to be the one closing the door (or switching the light off, for our Scotish friends). It had to be a fully assumed UK decision. And it is what you have to deal with now,

Sorry to insist but UK could have walked away 3 time earlier, but didn't.

A101 · Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:22 am

Grizzly410 wrote:

The MASSIVE difference is that EU is only receiver of UK decision. And always mentioned it would have prefered UK to remain a member.

I'm pretty sure ALL previous Tusk, Junker and Barnier official statement have a sentence expressing the EU regrets on UK decision. Nearly nobody on EU side was threatening or even casting a doubt, it always have been clear that any art50 extention request would have been granted because EU just didn't want to be the one closing the door (or switching the light off, for our Scotish friends). It had to be a fully assumed UK decision. And it is what you have to deal with now

No massive difference at all, the EU also has a choice to either accept the extension or not always was and always will be a decision made by both parties. Macron was playing bad cop and had his chances to veto 3 times and he didn’t use it why?........ political skullduggery no different to the UK under what May had to endure.

Johnson had no choice under law with the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019,(Benn Act) and you know full well that Johnson would not have extended a third time but was compelled to do so under duress

From an institutional view point it was always in the EU self interest to accept the extensions for financial and trade reasons with Germany and France teetering on the edge of recession if it was Greece do you really think the EU would have acted in the same way. Whilst the EU would have negotiated with any other member using the same methodical approach as a robot the EU institution would have gained overall by the removal of a member with weaker institutions and economic relevance to the EU.

Of course Tusk, Junker and Barnier official statement would say that as they know the EU is weaker without the UK, the EU will survive the UK leaving just like the UK will survive.

The EU had its chance of keeping the EU within its sphere legislatively under the pro remain government of TM. Where the EU went wrong was push the UK to hard in negotiations with the NI protocol. That is when no deal really came to the fore because of EU miscalculations that the UK will fold under a predominately pro EU parliament. One of the rare missteps by the EU I believe in that they were under the illusion that Brussels had 100% control of the process. The EU played a blinder up untill that point them lost the momentum to BJ

Grizzly410 wrote:
Sorry to insist but UK could have walked away 3 time earlier, but didn't.

And has been pointed out a number of times, the EU didn’t have to accept

LJ · Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:15 am

A101 wrote:
And has been pointed out a number of times, the EU didn’t have to accept

You can better turn the question. Why would the EU not grant any extension? The EU has/had nothing to gain by not granting an extension. As mentioned before, Brexit is a lose - lose situation and as such the EU has no incentive not to grant an extension. Moreover, from a political point of view it's not smart to be the one pulling the plug. However, it's still the UK which needed to ask for an extension.As for Macron, I hope you're familiar with the good cop / bad cop strategy. Or do you really think that if Macron/France opposes something, it will be done in the EU?

A101 · Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:50 am

LJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
And has been pointed out a number of times, the EU didn’t have to accept

You can better turn the question. Why would the EU not grant any extension? The EU has/had nothing to gain by not granting an extension. As mentioned before, Brexit is a lose - lose situation and as such the EU has no incentive not to grant an extension. Moreover, from a political point of view it's not smart to be the one pulling the plug. However, it's still the UK which needed to ask for an extension.As for Macron, I hope you're familiar with the good cop / bad cop strategy. Or do you really think that if Macron/France opposes something, it will be done in the EU?

I have already answered a variation of the question just a few posts ago, for the EU it was about perception and self interests, as for Macron it’s political manoeuvering & skullduggery.

As to what the gains are if you look at what Macron said there were some valid reason not to grant the last two extensions, but I imagine a quick cost benefit analysis would have showed granting had more benefit to the EU

Dutchy · Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:58 am

A101 wrote:
but I imagine a quick cost benefit analysis would have showed granting had more benefit to the EU

yes and so it does for the UK, it is a win-win, instead of a lose-lose what is Brexit, especially your desired hard Brexit,.

A101 · Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:13 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
but I imagine a quick cost benefit analysis would have showed granting had more benefit to the EU

yes and so it does for the UK, it is a win-win, instead of a lose-lose what is Brexit, especially your desired hard Brexit,.

Cost benifit for the EU most certainly, but for most in the UK it’s more than just about trade something you just refuse to acknowledge.

seahawk · Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:29 am

With the world in chaos and old structures tumbling down, now is the time to do the Hard Brexit and start fresh after the crisis. Sure the EU would love to get more British money, but the UK can use the money for better things. So no to an extension!

A101 · Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:28 am

seahawk wrote:
With the world in chaos and old structures tumbling down, now is the time to do the Hard Brexit and start fresh after the crisis. Sure the EU would love to get more British money, but the UK can use the money for better things. So no to an extension!

I agree that no extension is needed at this time as there is still time to sort a basic interim trade deal between both parties before the transition phase ends, it’s not like both governments have shut down after all it’s only just last week the EU has said it is getting down to business with accession talks for Macedonia and Albania

Dutchy · Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:36 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
but I imagine a quick cost benefit analysis would have showed granting had more benefit to the EU

yes and so it does for the UK, it is a win-win, instead of a lose-lose what is Brexit, especially your desired hard Brexit,.

Cost benifit for the EU most certainly, but for most in the UK it’s more than just about trade something you just refuse to acknowledge.

Yes, I acknowledge that for most it is more than just trade: for people wanted to stay, being part of an European community with all the benefits and all shared values, and for the Brexiteers some foolish notion of wanted to be "independent".

I fully recognize the wish of the Brexiteers for Britain to be the most important country as it was before WWI.

A101 · Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:45 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

yes and so it does for the UK, it is a win-win, instead of a lose-lose what is Brexit, especially your desired hard Brexit,.

Cost benifit for the EU most certainly, but for most in the UK it’s more than just about trade something you just refuse to acknowledge.

Yes, I acknowledge that for most it is more than just trade: for people wanted to stay, being part of an European community with all the benefits and all shared values, and for the Brexiteers some foolish notion of wanted to be "independent".

I fully recognize the wish of the Brexiteers for Britain to be the most important country as it was before WWI.

One mans trash is another mans treasure, there has certainly been a lot of bloodshed over the years in many parts of the world for what you described as a foolish notion of “independence”

Dutchy · Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:50 am

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:

Cost benifit for the EU most certainly, but for most in the UK it’s more than just about trade something you just refuse to acknowledge.

Yes, I acknowledge that for most it is more than just trade: for people wanted to stay, being part of an European community with all the benefits and all shared values, and for the Brexiteers some foolish notion of wanted to be "independent".

I fully recognize the wish of the Brexiteers for Britain to be the most important country as it was before WWI.

One mans trash is another mans treasure, there has certainly been a lot of bloodshed over the years in many parts of the world for what you described as a foolish notion of “independence”

Oh gee, are you really comparing independence wars for being decolonized to be out of the EU. Oh boy, you are over melodramatic and just show how much you are leaning towards Global Britain in the sense of being the colonial power again (which nobody is accepting ever again).

Just sad if you have to resort to such a comparison.

noviorbis77 · Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:03 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

yes and so it does for the UK, it is a win-win, instead of a lose-lose what is Brexit, especially your desired hard Brexit,.

Cost benifit for the EU most certainly, but for most in the UK it’s more than just about trade something you just refuse to acknowledge.

Yes, I acknowledge that for most it is more than just trade: for people wanted to stay, being part of an European community with all the benefits and all shared values, and for the Brexiteers some foolish notion of wanted to be "independent".

I fully recognize the wish of the Brexiteers for Britain to be the most important country as it was before WWI.

What shared values?

Dutchy · Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:33 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:

Cost benifit for the EU most certainly, but for most in the UK it’s more than just about trade something you just refuse to acknowledge.

Yes, I acknowledge that for most it is more than just trade: for people wanted to stay, being part of an European community with all the benefits and all shared values, and for the Brexiteers some foolish notion of wanted to be "independent".

I fully recognize the wish of the Brexiteers for Britain to be the most important country as it was before WWI.

What shared values?

A typical question for you. But since you are on record that you want to leave the ECHR as well, I guess they are not your values. But I understand you are in the Brexiteer category.

A101 · Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:35 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Yes, I acknowledge that for most it is more than just trade: for people wanted to stay, being part of an European community with all the benefits and all shared values, and for the Brexiteers some foolish notion of wanted to be "independent".

I fully recognize the wish of the Brexiteers for Britain to be the most important country as it was before WWI.

One mans trash is another mans treasure, there has certainly been a lot of bloodshed over the years in many parts of the world for what you described as a foolish notion of “independence”

Oh gee, are you really comparing independence wars for being decolonized to be out of the EU. Oh boy, you are over melodramatic and just show how much you are leaning towards Global Britain in the sense of being the colonial power again (which nobody is accepting ever again).

Just sad if you have to resort to such a comparison.

Nope just showing that people from around the world that independence is worth fighting for, we might not be taking up arms over the EU but it doesn’t mean we are less passionate about it.

Dutchy · Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:12 pm

A101 wrote:
Nope just showing that people from around the world that independence is worth fighting for, we might not be taking up arms over the EU but it doesn’t mean we are less passionate about it.

That might be, but there is a very important distinction: you weren't occupied and you weren't ruled form another place (before you go: you weren't ruled from Brussel).

Just laughable that you talk about independence, especially from the UK. :lol:

A101 · Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:34 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Nope just showing that people from around the world that independence is worth fighting for, we might not be taking up arms over the EU but it doesn’t mean we are less passionate about it.

That might be, but there is a very important distinction: you weren't occupied and you weren't ruled form another place (before you go: you weren't ruled from Brussel).

Just laughable that you talk about independence, especially from the UK.

We were not independent of Brussels either. We have regained that sovereign independence and returned parliamentary and judicial sovereignty to the UK.

Nothing laughable about the UK just your point of view you believe in neverendums.

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