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Dutchy
Posts: 11614
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:47 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Nope just showing that people from around the world that independence is worth fighting for, we might not be taking up arms over the EU but it doesn’t mean we are less passionate about it.


That might be, but there is a very important distinction: you weren't occupied and you weren't ruled form another place (before you go: you weren't ruled from Brussel).

Just laughable that you talk about independence, especially from the UK. :lol:


We were not independent of Brussels either. We have regained that sovereign independence and returned parliamentary and judicial sovereignty to the UK.

Nothing laughable about the UK just your point of view you believe in neverendums.


Your point of view is laughable, especially when one of your passports is the one from the UK and one from Australia.

Don't ever fill in my thoughts, you aren't very good at it.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
Posts: 1951
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:32 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

That might be, but there is a very important distinction: you weren't occupied and you weren't ruled form another place (before you go: you weren't ruled from Brussel).

Just laughable that you talk about independence, especially from the UK. :lol:


We were not independent of Brussels either. We have regained that sovereign independence and returned parliamentary and judicial sovereignty to the UK.

Nothing laughable about the UK just your point of view you believe in neverendums.


Your point of view is laughable, especially when one of your passports is the one from the UK and one from Australia.

Don't ever fill in my thoughts, you aren't very good at it.



Yes your point of view is laughable in regards to passports and dual nationals, so you think we are misconstruing your thoughts?.....pot calling the kettle black on your part,
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:44 pm

A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:

We were not independent of Brussels either. We have regained that sovereign independence and returned parliamentary and judicial sovereignty to the UK.

Nothing laughable about the UK just your point of view you believe in neverendums.


Your point of view is laughable, especially when one of your passports is the one from the UK and one from Australia.

Don't ever fill in my thoughts, you aren't very good at it.



Yes your point of view is laughable in regards to passports and dual nationals, so you think we are misconstruing your thoughts?.....pot calling the kettle black on your part,


Running to Australia while fighting for "independence" for the UK is quite sad. You have nothing to lose (and to gain if that ever comes) from Brexit. I will lose more than you from it.
The whole independence is a complete bull. And we have gone over it a number of times, and we are forced to conclude that you have learned nothing from all these threads.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
A101
Posts: 1951
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:53 pm

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Your point of view is laughable, especially when one of your passports is the one from the UK and one from Australia.

Don't ever fill in my thoughts, you aren't very good at it.



Yes your point of view is laughable in regards to passports and dual nationals, so you think we are misconstruing your thoughts?.....pot calling the kettle black on your part,


Running to Australia while fighting for "independence" for the UK is quite sad. You have nothing to lose (and to gain if that ever comes) from Brexit. I will lose more than you from it.
The whole independence is a complete bull. And we have gone over it a number of times, and we are forced to conclude that you have learned nothing from all these threads.



By crikey how many times are you going to bring this fallacy up, not running anywhere and have numerous investments in the UK and elsewhere so yes I have skin in the game. The way you carry on is if I’m the only Englishman to havedual nationality
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:16 am

A101 wrote:
gkirk wrote:
A101 wrote:


You are alluding to political skullduggery that’s been going on for time immemorial, the EU has the same option they do not have to accept extensions but they did, it takes two to tango


Presumably because the EU don't want to see the remainers in the UK be dragged down by the shambles that the leave campaigners have created.

The EU have a heart. Brexit, does not



:rotfl: that would have been the furthest thing on Brussels mind. The only reasons are perception and self interest, it’s the nature of any political beast the world over.


And that - right there - shows that you understand NOTHING about the EU project. And so I am justified in continuing to skip over your posts as they come from a place of ignorance and do not contribute.

I have a feeling the last few weeks will have put things into perspective for a few people. If you thought the recent panic buying was bad (I witnessed the apocalypse in Sainsbury's) what do you think will happen when trade barriers bring *REAL* supply chain issues?
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:42 pm

Today, BoJo was hospitalized and later moved to IC as his situation is constantly deteriorating and he's in potential need of ventilation now...
I hope they find him one of those experimental British-made ones, since it was obviously no problem to forego the offer by the EU to admit the UK to its European tender for off the shelf ventilators. irony seems to be the only thing delivering above expectations for brexiteers.

Dominic Raab now in charge of daily government matters, including the Brexit negotiations 'by phone'; you know, the same D. Raab who didn't know just how reliant the UK is on the Calais-Dover crossing. ROTFL
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46142188
 
ltbewr
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:00 pm

I think it was very important for the Queen to speak to the UK yesterday. I believe this was only the 4th or 5th time she has done such a speech in her reign. As she noted, this is the greatest threat to the UK and world since WWII, something she lived through as a teenager. It should make it clear the seriousness of this virus that knows no political siding, Tory or Labour or UKIP, pro or anti-royal, for or against Brexit. That speech by the Queen will motivate people to do their parts to limit the spread. The Queen's speech has become more critical as PM Johnson is apparently needing hospitalization, his age, obesity, likely various health problems factors in his degree of illness.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:38 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Today, BoJo was hospitalized and later moved to IC as his situation is constantly deteriorating and he's in potential need of ventilation now...


I hope he will be fine in the end, not the time for politics over this.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Arion640
Posts: 3058
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:27 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Today, BoJo was hospitalized and later moved to IC as his situation is constantly deteriorating and he's in potential need of ventilation now...
I hope they find him one of those experimental British-made ones, since it was obviously no problem to forego the offer by the EU to admit the UK to its European tender for off the shelf ventilators. irony seems to be the only thing delivering above expectations for brexiteers.

Dominic Raab now in charge of daily government matters, including the Brexit negotiations 'by phone'; you know, the same D. Raab who didn't know just how reliant the UK is on the Calais-Dover crossing. ROTFL
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46142188


Inappropriate. Really not the time...
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:28 pm

Dutchy wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Today, BoJo was hospitalized and later moved to IC as his situation is constantly deteriorating and he's in potential need of ventilation now...


I hope he will be fine in the end, not the time for politics over this.


My thoughts are with everyone battling coronavirus. The PM, my mums friends dad, my girlfriends uncle, every single one of them.
 
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Grizzly410
Posts: 409
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:29 am

Arion640 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Today, BoJo was hospitalized and later moved to IC as his situation is constantly deteriorating and he's in potential need of ventilation now...
I hope they find him one of those experimental British-made ones, since it was obviously no problem to forego the offer by the EU to admit the UK to its European tender for off the shelf ventilators. irony seems to be the only thing delivering above expectations for brexiteers.

Dominic Raab now in charge of daily government matters, including the Brexit negotiations 'by phone'; you know, the same D. Raab who didn't know just how reliant the UK is on the Calais-Dover crossing. ROTFL
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46142188


Inappropriate. Really not the time...

My comment will appear even more inappropriate then ? Unfortunately I don't have skill (english as third language) to make sure it's within the/your limits, but the irony of seing him in UCI bed one month after "shaking hands with everybody" in an hospital with COVID-19 patients is not lost to me.

Hope he'll get well soon and that will just remember that as a good lesson.
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
sabenapilot
Posts: 3286
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2000 6:18 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:24 am

Grizzly410 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Today, BoJo was hospitalized and later moved to IC as his situation is constantly deteriorating and he's in potential need of ventilation now...
I hope they find him one of those experimental British-made ones, since it was obviously no problem to forego the offer by the EU to admit the UK to its European tender for off the shelf ventilators. irony seems to be the only thing delivering above expectations for brexiteers.

Dominic Raab now in charge of daily government matters, including the Brexit negotiations 'by phone'; you know, the same D. Raab who didn't know just how reliant the UK is on the Calais-Dover crossing. ROTFL
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46142188


Inappropriate. Really not the time...

My comment will appear even more inappropriate then ? Unfortunately I don't have skill (english as third language) to make sure it's within the/your limits, but the irony of seing him in UCI bed one month after "shaking hands with everybody" in an hospital with COVID-19 patients is not lost to me.

Hope he'll get well soon and that will just remember that as a good lesson.


It became appropriate and on-topic the very moment BoJo politicized the Corona virus in the domestic Brexit debate and decided that delivering the purest of Brexits by deliberately and quite arrogantly foregoing on a compassionate invite to a voluntary participation in a EU tender for ventilators and thus being seen as decisively -albeit purely symbolically- cutting as much fibres of the fabric tying the UK to the EU was way more important to him than the immediately public wellbeing of his country and its NHS…

Well, it so turns out that it might now be his life which is put on the line because of his dogmatic attitude towards anything that comes from Brussels or the EU these days as if it's the evil empire in person and can do no good whatsoever…

Karma clearly is a bich, like they say.

Indeed, I wish him to well soon too and hope he learns a lesson or two in pragmatism from it.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:09 am

sabenapilot wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Inappropriate. Really not the time...

My comment will appear even more inappropriate then ? Unfortunately I don't have skill (english as third language) to make sure it's within the/your limits, but the irony of seing him in UCI bed one month after "shaking hands with everybody" in an hospital with COVID-19 patients is not lost to me.

Hope he'll get well soon and that will just remember that as a good lesson.


It became appropriate and on-topic the very moment BoJo politicized the Corona virus in the domestic Brexit debate and decided that delivering the purest of Brexits by deliberately and quite arrogantly foregoing on a compassionate invite to a voluntary participation in a EU tender for ventilators and thus being seen as decisively -albeit purely symbolically- cutting as much fibres of the fabric tying the UK to the EU was way more important to him than the immediately public wellbeing of his country and its NHS…

Well, it so turns out that it might now be his life which is put on the line because of his dogmatic attitude towards anything that comes from Brussels or the EU these days as if it's the evil empire in person and can do no good whatsoever…

Karma clearly is a bich, like they say.

Indeed, I wish him to well soon too and hope he learns a lesson or two in pragmatism from it.


Wow. I dread to think what life in Belgium is like. Wishing death on people like that. Shocking. I’m sure you’d be saying very much different things if one of your family members was in hospital with coronavirus.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Apr 07, 2020 8:23 am

Arion640 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
My comment will appear even more inappropriate then ? Unfortunately I don't have skill (english as third language) to make sure it's within the/your limits, but the irony of seing him in UCI bed one month after "shaking hands with everybody" in an hospital with COVID-19 patients is not lost to me.

Hope he'll get well soon and that will just remember that as a good lesson.


It became appropriate and on-topic the very moment BoJo politicized the Corona virus in the domestic Brexit debate and decided that delivering the purest of Brexits by deliberately and quite arrogantly foregoing on a compassionate invite to a voluntary participation in a EU tender for ventilators and thus being seen as decisively -albeit purely symbolically- cutting as much fibres of the fabric tying the UK to the EU was way more important to him than the immediately public wellbeing of his country and its NHS…

Well, it so turns out that it might now be his life which is put on the line because of his dogmatic attitude towards anything that comes from Brussels or the EU these days as if it's the evil empire in person and can do no good whatsoever…

Karma clearly is a bich, like they say.

Indeed, I wish him to well soon too and hope he learns a lesson or two in pragmatism from it.


Wow. I dread to think what life in Belgium is like. Wishing death on people like that. Shocking. I’m sure you’d be saying very much different things if one of your family members was in hospital with coronavirus.


I strongly suggest you read me again: I wish him well and wish him extra wisdom on top.

As to the rest of your comment: I'm happy to live in a country were government listens to real experts rather than politicial advisers on how to behave during a pandemic, and where real solutions aren't arrogantly turned down just because they happen to come from the wrong side of the political devide.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:44 pm

It emerges that the EU Council is a bottle neck in getting a deal between the EU and UK. Not policy related, but the EU Council seems not to have enough facilities due the social distancing rules and not enough video conferencing facilities.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/08/brexit-uk-plan-to-secure-trade-deal-by-december-is-fantasy-says-eu
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:46 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

Inappropriate. Really not the time...

My comment will appear even more inappropriate then ? Unfortunately I don't have skill (english as third language) to make sure it's within the/your limits, but the irony of seing him in UCI bed one month after "shaking hands with everybody" in an hospital with COVID-19 patients is not lost to me.

Hope he'll get well soon and that will just remember that as a good lesson.


It became appropriate and on-topic the very moment BoJo politicized the Corona virus in the domestic Brexit debate and decided that delivering the purest of Brexits by deliberately and quite arrogantly foregoing on a compassionate invite to a voluntary participation in a EU tender for ventilators and thus being seen as decisively -albeit purely symbolically- cutting as much fibres of the fabric tying the UK to the EU was way more important to him than the immediately public wellbeing of his country and its NHS…

Well, it so turns out that it might now be his life which is put on the line because of his dogmatic attitude towards anything that comes from Brussels or the EU these days as if it's the evil empire in person and can do no good whatsoever…

Karma clearly is a bich, like they say.

Indeed, I wish him to well soon too and hope he learns a lesson or two in pragmatism from it.



Using terms like Karma is a bitch when someone is in intensive care is pretty low.

Really poor post.
 
A101
Posts: 1951
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:47 pm

LJ wrote:
It emerges that the EU Council is a bottle neck in getting a deal between the EU and UK. Not policy related, but the EU Council seems not to have enough facilities due the social distancing rules and not enough video conferencing facilities.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/08/brexit-uk-plan-to-secure-trade-deal-by-december-is-fantasy-says-eu



Everyone knows that afully comprehensive deal cannot be done with the complications,best just to crack on with no trade deal planning and continue trade talks next year

Also there is scuttle bug that any extension to the transition could be as high as 25billion plus in membership fees to the EU for only 1 year
 
Baexecutive
Posts: 629
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:53 am

sabenapilot wrote:
Today, BoJo was hospitalized and later moved to IC as his situation is constantly deteriorating and he's in potential need of ventilation now...
I hope they find him one of those experimental British-made ones, since it was obviously no problem to forego the offer by the EU to admit the UK to its European tender for off the shelf ventilators. irony seems to be the only thing delivering above expectations for brexiteers.

Dominic Raab now in charge of daily government matters, including the Brexit negotiations 'by phone'; you know, the same D. Raab who didn't know just how reliant the UK is on the Calais-Dover crossing. ROTFL
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46142188


You should be ashamed of yourself.

As to your comment over experimental British ventilators, laughable. Look up British inventions, that’ll give you a wee taste of what we can do.

You pay like 60% tax in little EUland aka Belgium? I know where I’d rather be so please leave your vile diatribe for your personal thoughts.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:04 am

UK has been offered extension while EU is concentrating on more urgent matters.

Pricetag is 26 billion pounds per year or the uk fee without rebate.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:14 am

Well that will be easy to reject.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:47 am

olle wrote:
UK has been offered extension while EU is concentrating on more urgent matters.

Pricetag is 26 billion pounds per year or the uk fee without rebate.


it's actually cheaper than having the British economy adapt to the no deal aka Australia-type of trade by year's end, followed by abolishing some/part/most of those provisions and infrastructure in a few year's time again. ;)

We'll see just how pragmatic the government has become because of Corona, or whether they'll insist in their dogmatic approach demonstrated so far...
 
A101
Posts: 1951
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:36 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
olle wrote:
UK has been offered extension while EU is concentrating on more urgent matters.

Pricetag is 26 billion pounds per year or the uk fee without rebate.


it's actually cheaper than having the British economy adapt to the no deal aka Australia-type of trade by year's end, followed by abolishing some/part/most of those provisions and infrastructure in a few year's time again. ;)

We'll see just how pragmatic the government has become because of Corona, or whether they'll insist in their dogmatic approach demonstrated so far...


The pragmatic approach would be to leave the timeline as is as there was no guarantee that an agreement would be reached even if they used the extension anyway. Yes there will be confusion at the start but either business will adapt to the new process or they would have collapsed anyway under a new trade deal or not, any importer/exporter should already done their due diligence into requirements under a no trade deal requirements which would be the higher requirement of the two.

I still see a very basic interim agreement being reached by the end of year between the two parties until a new comprehensive agreement is reached within 4 years as its not just in the UK interests to do so.
 
olle
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Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:52 pm

A101 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
olle wrote:
UK has been offered extension while EU is concentrating on more urgent matters.

Pricetag is 26 billion pounds per year or the uk fee without rebate.


it's actually cheaper than having the British economy adapt to the no deal aka Australia-type of trade by year's end, followed by abolishing some/part/most of those provisions and infrastructure in a few year's time again. ;)

We'll see just how pragmatic the government has become because of Corona, or whether they'll insist in their dogmatic approach demonstrated so far...


The pragmatic approach would be to leave the timeline as is as there was no guarantee that an agreement would be reached even if they used the extension anyway. Yes there will be confusion at the start but either business will adapt to the new process or they would have collapsed anyway under a new trade deal or not, any importer/exporter should already done their due diligence into requirements under a no trade deal requirements which would be the higher requirement of the two.

I still see a very basic interim agreement being reached by the end of year between the two parties until a new comprehensive agreement is reached within 4 years as its not just in the UK interests to do so.



If to just walk away is such an advantage for UK why do not the Brexit leadership just do that? Boris, Gove etc.. They must know what they are up to?
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:58 pm

considering that much of the rebated account has been coming back as universities fees, research money advanced projects like galilleo, regional support etc I assume that the amount is not also higher then it used to be, but it will come back I suppose the net fee will higher then it has been. Perhaps the red bus with 350miilion per week finally become true?
 
A101
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:53 pm

olle wrote:
A101 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:

it's actually cheaper than having the British economy adapt to the no deal aka Australia-type of trade by year's end, followed by abolishing some/part/most of those provisions and infrastructure in a few year's time again. ;)

We'll see just how pragmatic the government has become because of Corona, or whether they'll insist in their dogmatic approach demonstrated so far...


The pragmatic approach would be to leave the timeline as is as there was no guarantee that an agreement would be reached even if they used the extension anyway. Yes there will be confusion at the start but either business will adapt to the new process or they would have collapsed anyway under a new trade deal or not, any importer/exporter should already done their due diligence into requirements under a no trade deal requirements which would be the higher requirement of the two.

I still see a very basic interim agreement being reached by the end of year between the two parties until a new comprehensive agreement is reached within 4 years as its not just in the UK interests to do so.



If to just walk away is such an advantage for UK why do not the Brexit leadership just do that? Boris, Gove etc.. They must know what they are up to?





No one is claiming that leaving with no deal is an advantage to the UK, but its also not in our interests to keep in a transition phase and paying full membership fees with no seat at the decision making table that can have adverse effects on the UK as well. Sooner or later we are leaving the SM/CU better to be sooner rather than later, least with no deal there is a certain amount of certainty to it and business can plan accordingly, if and when a new trade deal is struck business can adjust to the new requirements.
 
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Grizzly410
Posts: 409
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:33 am

A101 wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
olle wrote:
UK has been offered extension while EU is concentrating on more urgent matters.

Pricetag is 26 billion pounds per year or the uk fee without rebate.


it's actually cheaper than having the British economy adapt to the no deal aka Australia-type of trade by year's end, followed by abolishing some/part/most of those provisions and infrastructure in a few year's time again. ;)

We'll see just how pragmatic the government has become because of Corona, or whether they'll insist in their dogmatic approach demonstrated so far...


The pragmatic approach would be to leave the timeline as is as there was no guarantee that an agreement would be reached even if they used the extension anyway. Yes there will be confusion at the start but either business will adapt to the new process or they would have collapsed anyway under a new trade deal or not, any importer/exporter should already done their due diligence into requirements under a no trade deal requirements which would be the higher requirement of the two.

I still see a very basic interim agreement being reached by the end of year between the two parties until a new comprehensive agreement is reached within 4 years as its not just in the UK interests to do so.


I'm afraid you are underestimating the task at hands. What you call "confusion at the start" would actually be a shock. Another one in 2020 while the rest of the world cure its wounds and reorganize ? That would be stupid.

In fact, it's doubtful UK can be "ready" by year end deal or no deal. (EU can't be ready in Calais and ports either, but would be less affected if have to badly slow down the flow-in)
Remenber that a deal like UK seems to seek, a simple FTA, can just remove tariff barrier. NTB would still have to be shaped, agreed and build by year end. In the same time a brand new, innovative, border in Irish sea needs to be build from scratch and any regulatory agency UK doesn't pool with EU anymore have to be ready to operate.
That's huge man.

Taking in account:
- agreeing the extention term won't be a walk in the park
- there is only 11 weeks left to formalize it
- Coronavirus must be still very active to make the u-turn swallowable in UK

The change in policy should happen rather soon, let's say one month ?

I don't doubt you'll continue to refuse to see it for a longer time though. :hyper:
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
A101
Posts: 1951
Joined: Sun Dec 09, 2018 1:27 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:28 am

Grizzly410 wrote:

I'm afraid you are underestimating the task at hands. What you call "confusion at the start" would actually be a shock. Another one in 2020 while the rest of the world cure its wounds and reorganize ? That would be stupid.


Cant be a shock when you know its coming, yes the coronavirus was a shock at the speed it went around the world, but getting ready trading on WTO terms is no shock when you had so long to prepare. There will be disruptions that's not in dispute

Grizzly410 wrote:

In fact, it's doubtful UK can be "ready" by year end deal or no deal. (EU can't be ready in Calais and ports either, but would be less affected if have to badly slow down the flow-in)
Remenber that a deal like UK seems to seek, a simple FTA, can just remove tariff barrier. NTB would still have to be shaped, agreed and build by year end. In the same time a brand new, innovative, border in Irish sea needs to be build from scratch and any regulatory agency UK doesn't pool with EU anymore have to be ready to operate.
That's huge man.


You make out that the UK cannot and does not import from third countries now and you also make out that HMRC are totally clueless, yes there's going to be changes and yes there will be disruptions that's not in dispute there always is disruptions when things change

Grizzly410 wrote:

Taking in account:
- agreeing the extention term won't be a walk in the park
- there is only 11 weeks left to formalize it
- Coronavirus must be still very active to make the u-turn swallowable in UK


yep agree if they hold talks to extended those negotiations could be just as protracted as the trade negotiations


Grizzly410 wrote:
The change in policy should happen rather soon, let's say one month ?

I don't doubt you'll continue to refuse to see it for a longer time though. :hyper:



Well time will tell, revisit this post 11-4-20 see if you are right or not :coffee:
 
LJ
Posts: 5289
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:46 am

A101 wrote:
Cant be a shock when you know its coming, yes the coronavirus was a shock at the speed it went around the world, but getting ready trading on WTO terms is no shock when you had so long to prepare. There will be disruptions that's not in dispute


But do they realize what the impact will be when they're npt ready? The current view has been that the UK would have hired and trained hundreds of customs employees by the end of the year. These customs employees won't be there as I would assume hiring has halted and trainiing likewise. As such, the UK does not have enough capable employees to handle the traffic. The same applies to the EU, but many EU countries, like The Netherlands, hired and trained new customs officials lat year (mostly because they needed them anyway). Without these employees you may have a shock what will happen after December 31st. Or does the UK understand the full consequences like we all did with this crisis? I sincerly think the answer is NO. Given the complex supply chains we can make an estimate at best of what will happen, but some things can still be a shock as we didn't predict it.

A101 wrote:
You make out that the UK cannot and does not import from third countries now and you also make out that HMRC are totally clueless, yes there's going to be changes and yes there will be disruptions that's not in dispute there always is disruptions when things change


The volume of imports from third countries will grow with a big bang after December 31st. They're not clueless, but nobody knows exactly how supply chains will be affected. Moreover, I doubt that you want "disruption" in essential supply chains. If you add the fact that, depending opn how long this COVID-19 crisis will last, stockpiling is much more difficult, you'll have more uncertaincies than you would probably like.
 
A101
Posts: 1951
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:59 am

LJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
Cant be a shock when you know its coming, yes the coronavirus was a shock at the speed it went around the world, but getting ready trading on WTO terms is no shock when you had so long to prepare. There will be disruptions that's not in dispute


But do they realize what the impact will be when they're npt ready? The current view has been that the UK would have hired and trained hundreds of customs employees by the end of the year. These customs employees won't be there as I would assume hiring has halted and trainiing likewise. As such, the UK does not have enough capable employees to handle the traffic. The same applies to the EU, but many EU countries, like The Netherlands, hired and trained new customs officials lat year (mostly because they needed them anyway). Without these employees you may have a shock what will happen after December 31st. Or does the UK understand the full consequences like we all did with this crisis? I sincerly think the answer is NO. Given the complex supply chains we can make an estimate at best of what will happen, but some things can still be a shock as we didn't predict it.


Once again people are assuming that the UK is sitting on its duffer, but that is far from the case just like the EU the UK has employed and have been training customs agents since the mid 2018. I'm lead to believe the have trained up in excess over 3000 new agents in the 1st tranche of funding I imagine training has taken a step back over the last couple of months doe to coronavirus. but once again yes there will be disruptions its inevitable due to change but it certainly will not be a shock business have had ample time to prepare for trade without a deal

LJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
You make out that the UK cannot and does not import from third countries now and you also make out that HMRC are totally clueless, yes there's going to be changes and yes there will be disruptions that's not in dispute there always is disruptions when things change


The volume of imports from third countries will grow with a big bang after December 31st. They're not clueless, but nobody knows exactly how supply chains will be affected. Moreover, I doubt that you want "disruption" in essential supply chains. If you add the fact that, depending opn how long this COVID-19 crisis will last, stockpiling is much more difficult, you'll have more uncertaincies than you would probably like.


Trade volumes have already been affected by the coronavirus, but even if the trade had not been affected the actual trade volume will not have increased dramatically only the volume paperwork will increase exponentially hence the need for more customs agents.

You will most likely find that due to the decrees in trade it is actually a blessing in disguise once trade starts to get back to normal in about 12-15 months after the lifting of restrictions due to the slower pace of imports/exports both the EU/UK will have more flexibility to see what works and what doesn't where to increase resource and where they can be reduced and redeployed to other areas. Any essential supply chains affected will be given priority via customs, but yes once again we are expecting disruptions and like everything in life you learn from the problems and look for solutions and that is a lesson that would have happened Brexit or not things continue to evolve, these disruptions are inevitable even if we leave at the end of the year or next trade deal or not
 
olle
Posts: 2026
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:43 am

An EU based company choosing between 2 equal offer from supplier inside EU or compared to UK or Norway will consider the extra paper work.

Ask a Norwegian exporter.
 
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Grizzly410
Posts: 409
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:46 am

A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:

I'm afraid you are underestimating the task at hands. What you call "confusion at the start" would actually be a shock. Another one in 2020 while the rest of the world cure its wounds and reorganize ? That would be stupid.


Cant be a shock when you know its coming, yes the coronavirus was a shock at the speed it went around the world, but getting ready trading on WTO terms is no shock when you had so long to prepare. There will be disruptions that's not in dispute

Grizzly410 wrote:

In fact, it's doubtful UK can be "ready" by year end deal or no deal. (EU can't be ready in Calais and ports either, but would be less affected if have to badly slow down the flow-in)
Remenber that a deal like UK seems to seek, a simple FTA, can just remove tariff barrier. NTB would still have to be shaped, agreed and build by year end. In the same time a brand new, innovative, border in Irish sea needs to be build from scratch and any regulatory agency UK doesn't pool with EU anymore have to be ready to operate.
That's huge man.


You make out that the UK cannot and does not import from third countries now and you also make out that HMRC are totally clueless, yes there's going to be changes and yes there will be disruptions that's not in dispute there always is disruptions when things change


Yeah, UK import from third countries, under EU rulebook. You can be confident UK would have its own set up in time, I'm not, that's only one aspect anyway.
What is indisputable is that Dover will experience a massive change, currently seeing a vast majority of EU internal flow thus basically unchecked to a full blown border post ! After all, the port only deal with something like 15-20% of the UK flow trade in goods, what could go wrong ?

Import aren't even the worst problem, nothing stops you to decide to let things in unchecked just to fluidify the goods flow until future improvment. That's one way to take back control, maybe not the one Brexiteers envisaged at the beginning though.
Export, on the other hand would be much more problematic. Yes some UK businesses knows how to trade with third countries, but not the businesses that didn't before, businesses who will suddently become less competitive thanks to the added cost to be make their good enter the SM.
So wise to inflict that to the survival of the coronavirus crisis just when all economies will be restructuring...

And let's not forget the Irish Sea border, the JC met for the first time two weeks ago and outcome of the meeting was that the urgency was UK to present... A DETAILED TIMETABLE. Call me sceptical but if it takes months to produce a timetable I just can't see how a workable solution could be in place for december.

A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
The change in policy should happen rather soon, let's say one month ?

I don't doubt you'll continue to refuse to see it for a longer time though. :hyper:



Well time will tell, revisit this post 11-4-20 see if you are right or not :coffee:

Here I am but isn't it a tad too soon? ;)
Somehow I think one month is short, but the coronavirus crisis and PM Johnson out of office opens such a nice political window for the u-turn, would be a shame to miss it. You are right of course, time will tell.
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:03 am

A101 wrote:
[Once again people are assuming that the UK is sitting on its duffer, but that is far from the case just like the EU the UK has employed and have been training customs agents since the mid 2018. I'm lead to believe the have trained up in excess over 3000 new agents in the 1st tranche of funding I imagine training has taken a step back over the last couple of months doe to coronavirus. but once again yes there will be disruptions its inevitable due to change but it certainly will not be a shock business have had ample time to prepare for trade without a deal


The estimate for the amount of additional staff needed to process all the paperwork was 50,000 only 2 months ago (February 2020). If, due to the lower trade volume, this will decrease to 25,000, then it's still a lot of people to hire and train. Those 3,000 customs officials are peanuts compared to what it actually needs (just for comparisoon, The Netherlands hired and trained 1,200 new customs officials to deal with a no-deal Brexit and the assumption is that that's not enough).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/28/extra-50000-border-staff-needed-for-post-brexit-trade-says-gove

A101 wrote:
Trade volumes have already been affected by the coronavirus, but even if the trade had not been affected the actual trade volume will not have increased dramatically only the volume paperwork will increase exponentially hence the need for more customs agents.

You will most likely find that due to the decrees in trade it is actually a blessing in disguise once trade starts to get back to normal in about 12-15 months after the lifting of restrictions due to the slower pace of imports/exports both the EU/UK will have more flexibility to see what works and what doesn't where to increase resource and where they can be reduced and redeployed to other areas.


The expectation is that any training will costs around 6 months and I don't believe hiring customs officials is high on UKs agenda for at least the next 2/3 months (on the plus side, a lot of unemployed people coming to the market). In addition, you also need people to train the new employees, which with 25,000 people to train will not be easy. Moreover, how are you going to increase trade volume when you don't have the people to suport it? At best it will slow down recovery, which isn't a benefit. Finally, it's not only trade with the EU which will be affected. As of January 1st there is no difference between goods coming from the US, China or EU. Processing documents for goods coming from those countries will be slowed down as well.

A101 wrote:
Any essential supply chains affected will be given priority via customs, but yes once again we are expecting disruptions and like everything in life you learn from the problems and look for solutions and that is a lesson that would have happened Brexit or not things continue to evolve, these disruptions are inevitable even if we leave at the end of the year or next trade deal or not


Thus companies which are considered "non essential" (BTW what do you consider "essential"?) can go bankrupt or loose money? I doubt people working in "non essential" businesses will agree to your view of prioritizing "essential" companies. They probably would be able to handle no-deal without the impact of COVID-19, but if you add the impact of COVID-19 to the impact of a no-deal situation, it may be too much for many companies. Hence why a delay make sense.
 
Ertro
Posts: 118
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:29 am

A101 wrote:
You will most likely find that due to the decrees in trade it is actually a blessing in disguise once trade starts to get back to normal in about 12-15 months after the lifting of restrictions due to the slower pace of imports/exports both the EU/UK will have more flexibility to see what works and what doesn't where to increase resource and where they can be reduced and redeployed to other areas.


The "blessing" argument is only for one aspect. It is blessing only for making it easier to invent arguments to defend government inaction. However for multiple other areas that actually matter it is the opposite of blessing.

Companies can take only so much problems before it becomes overwhelming and they fold. Covid is already driving many close to that point and brexit on top of that is finishing touch to make sure it happens. Some of them could have maybe been able to handle brexit alone but having covid problems before that is too devastating financially for too long time and especially having everything in lockdown in critical time before brexit makes preparing for brexit impossible.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2004
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:09 pm

A101 wrote:
LJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
Cant be a shock when you know its coming, yes the coronavirus was a shock at the speed it went around the world, but getting ready trading on WTO terms is no shock when you had so long to prepare. There will be disruptions that's not in dispute


But do they realize what the impact will be when they're npt ready? The current view has been that the UK would have hired and trained hundreds of customs employees by the end of the year. These customs employees won't be there as I would assume hiring has halted and trainiing likewise. As such, the UK does not have enough capable employees to handle the traffic. The same applies to the EU, but many EU countries, like The Netherlands, hired and trained new customs officials lat year (mostly because they needed them anyway). Without these employees you may have a shock what will happen after December 31st. Or does the UK understand the full consequences like we all did with this crisis? I sincerly think the answer is NO. Given the complex supply chains we can make an estimate at best of what will happen, but some things can still be a shock as we didn't predict it.


Once again people are assuming that the UK is sitting on its duffer, but that is far from the case just like the EU the UK has employed and have been training customs agents since the mid 2018. I'm lead to believe the have trained up in excess over 3000 new agents in the 1st tranche of funding I imagine training has taken a step back over the last couple of months doe to coronavirus. but once again yes there will be disruptions its inevitable due to change but it certainly will not be a shock business have had ample time to prepare for trade without a deal

LJ wrote:
A101 wrote:
You make out that the UK cannot and does not import from third countries now and you also make out that HMRC are totally clueless, yes there's going to be changes and yes there will be disruptions that's not in dispute there always is disruptions when things change


The volume of imports from third countries will grow with a big bang after December 31st. They're not clueless, but nobody knows exactly how supply chains will be affected. Moreover, I doubt that you want "disruption" in essential supply chains. If you add the fact that, depending opn how long this COVID-19 crisis will last, stockpiling is much more difficult, you'll have more uncertaincies than you would probably like.


Trade volumes have already been affected by the coronavirus, but even if the trade had not been affected the actual trade volume will not have increased dramatically only the volume paperwork will increase exponentially hence the need for more customs agents.

You will most likely find that due to the decrees in trade it is actually a blessing in disguise once trade starts to get back to normal in about 12-15 months after the lifting of restrictions due to the slower pace of imports/exports both the EU/UK will have more flexibility to see what works and what doesn't where to increase resource and where they can be reduced and redeployed to other areas. Any essential supply chains affected will be given priority via customs, but yes once again we are expecting disruptions and like everything in life you learn from the problems and look for solutions and that is a lesson that would have happened Brexit or not things continue to evolve, these disruptions are inevitable even if we leave at the end of the year or next trade deal or not


I genuinely could care less about whether or not there’s an extension, but I really get the impression that the impact of COVID-19 hasn’t sunk in yet because of ideological fog. The government side could probably deliver whatever it is you think they need to deliver, but there are bigger issues:

- The assumption that most UK companies would be able to survive Brexit with manageable disruption is no longer accurate. Where one could reasonably compare British companies to marathon runners and Brexit to an ankle twist - a slightly painful readjustment that they could run off relatively quickly - COVID-19 is the equivalent of being hit by a bus. If you think they’ll be able to get up from this, shrug it off in a few months and then afford a twisted ankle, then, well, good luck. For the businesses that survive COVID-19, the twisted ankle might well do them in. Brexit dogma notwithstanding, 2020 is not 2019. What was true yesterday may no longer hold today. This is a reality of black swan events.

- The Government didn’t pump GBP 350 billion into the economy for fun. It was probably the right thing to do, but it’s effectively killed the possibility of the government cushioning future Brexit-related disruption. Unless you believe we are headed for a quick resolution (6 months) and a miracle economic turnaround, the UK government is not going to have the fiscal tools it assumed it did to ride out Brexit disruption. We’ve been told on this side of the Atlantic that whatever we considered normal in 2019 is around a year away. With all the economic consequences therein.

But yeah, let’s all pretend that COVID-19 hasn’t changed anything.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:32 am

Or one could see it as a chance. COVID-19 has changed the World and Brexit means the UK will have the freedom and flexibility to adjust.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:20 am

seahawk wrote:
Or one could see it as a chance. COVID-19 has changed the World and Brexit means the UK will have the freedom and flexibility to adjust.


The new "freedom" also comes with new responsibilities and diplomatic capabilities. Insulting a potential large trading partner is not one of them.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:46 am

Choosing to be sovereign is only insulting to another party, if they want to deny you that right.
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 11614
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 13, 2020 10:52 am

seahawk wrote:
Choosing to be sovereign is only insulting to another party, if they want to deny you that right.


Nobody is denying the right of the UK to act stupid and following the populist movement.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:09 pm

seahawk wrote:
Choosing to be sovereign is only insulting to another party, if they want to deny you that right.


You do understand that I mean that the UK insulted China a few weeks ago? They haven't insulted the EU recently.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:39 pm

So the EU should support the UK´s wish to become fully sovereign again.
 
Olddog
Topic Author
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:57 pm

Support in what way ?
Signature censored
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Apr 14, 2020 2:57 pm

Uk is competing with EU. EU must consider what is good for EU citizen just like UK cobsider what is good for UK citizen...

Very simple.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:23 pm

Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Choosing to be sovereign is only insulting to another party, if they want to deny you that right.


Nobody is denying the right of the UK to act stupid and following the populist movement.

Something just does not sound right about that statement.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:47 am

par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Choosing to be sovereign is only insulting to another party, if they want to deny you that right.


Nobody is denying the right of the UK to act stupid and following the populist movement.

Something just does not sound right about that statement.


Why? The UK was always a sovereign state, so they are allowed to chose a dead road if they please. The UK isn't a child which has a caretaker to make sure nothing dire happens to it.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:35 pm

Despite having many people unemployed, the UK still needs Romanians to feed the UK. Wonder if these migrants earn the minimum wage to stay in the UK. Or will the Eastern Europeans always bail the UK farmers out?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/romanian-fruit-pickers-flown-uk-crisis-farming-sector-coronavirus
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:59 pm

So next round of talks:
> 20 April
> 11 May
> 1 June

Link
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
dobilan
Posts: 32
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:14 pm

"Despite having many people unemployed, the UK still needs Romanians to feed the UK. Wonder if these migrants earn the minimum wage to stay in the UK. Or will the Eastern Europeans always bail the UK farmers out?"
There is quite a scandal in Romania at the moment regarding the chartered flights transporting agricultural workers to Germany and UK. Those flights were arranged in apparent contradiction with the current lockdown measures across the country.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:29 pm

The head of the IMF has officially recommended the UK to ask the EU for an extension of the transition period beyond the end of this year.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52304821

"The IMF is now preoccupied with trying to find ways to help alleviate a global recession we have not seen in our lifetimes, arising out of the Corona pandemic. it would be wise not to add more on top of it. It is tough as it is, let's not make it any tougher now."
 
A101
Posts: 1951
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:01 pm

UK will refuse any EU offer to extend Brexit transition

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.ft. ... 987045517f


David Frost, the UK’s chief negotiator, tweeted that “extending would simply prolong negotiations, create even more uncertainty, leave us liable to pay more to the EU in future, and keep us bound by evolving EU laws at a time when we need to control our own affairs. In short, it is not in the UK's interest to extend”.

 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:19 pm

Dutchy wrote:
par13del wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

Nobody is denying the right of the UK to act stupid and following the populist movement.

Something just does not sound right about that statement.


Why? The UK was always a sovereign state, so they are allowed to chose a dead road if they please. The UK isn't a child which has a caretaker to make sure nothing dire happens to it.

I guess your populist comment is lost in the shuffle, the millions of folks who are in the EU and loving it and enjoying the fruits are populist, but somehow, if a lot of people support something not aligned with someone else's believe the word populist is applied to them in a derogatory fashion.

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