I'm afraid you are underestimating the task at hands. What you call "confusion at the start" would actually be a shock. Another one in 2020 while the rest of the world cure its wounds and reorganize ? That would be stupid.
Cant be a shock when you know its coming, yes the coronavirus was a shock at the speed it went around the world, but getting ready trading on WTO terms is no shock when you had so long to prepare. There will be disruptions that's not in dispute
In fact, it's doubtful UK can be "ready" by year end deal or no deal. (EU can't be ready in Calais and ports either, but would be less affected if have to badly slow down the flow-in)
Remenber that a deal like UK seems to seek, a simple FTA, can just remove tariff barrier. NTB would still have to be shaped, agreed and build by year end. In the same time a brand new, innovative, border in Irish sea needs to be build from scratch and any regulatory agency UK doesn't pool with EU anymore have to be ready to operate.
That's huge man.
You make out that the UK cannot and does not import from third countries now and you also make out that HMRC are totally clueless, yes there's going to be changes and yes there will be disruptions that's not in dispute there always is disruptions when things change
Yeah, UK import from third countries, under EU rulebook. You can be confident UK would have its own set up in time, I'm not, that's only one aspect anyway.
What is indisputable is that Dover will experience a massive change, currently seeing a vast majority of EU internal flow thus basically unchecked to a full blown border post ! After all, the port only deal with something like 15-20% of the UK flow trade in goods, what could go wrong ?
Import aren't even the worst problem, nothing stops you to decide to let things in unchecked just to fluidify the goods flow until future improvment. That's one way to take back control, maybe not the one Brexiteers envisaged at the beginning though.
Export, on the other hand would be much more problematic. Yes some UK businesses knows how to trade with third countries, but not the businesses that didn't before, businesses who will suddently become less competitive thanks to the added cost to be make their good enter the SM.
So wise to inflict that to the survival of the coronavirus crisis just when all economies will be restructuring...
And let's not forget the Irish Sea border, the JC met for the first time two weeks ago and outcome of the meeting was that the urgency was UK to present... A DETAILED TIMETABLE. Call me sceptical but if it takes months to produce a timetable I just can't see how a workable solution could be in place for december.
The change in policy should happen rather soon, let's say one month ?
I don't doubt you'll continue to refuse to see it for a longer time though.
Well time will tell, revisit this post 11-4-20 see if you are right or not
Here I am but isn't it a tad too soon?
Somehow I think one month is short, but the coronavirus crisis and PM Johnson out of office opens such a nice political window for the u-turn, would be a shame to miss it. You are right of course, time will tell.
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.