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ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:28 pm

Bostrom wrote:
I've had some great trips to the UK and I would love to go back once the pandemic is over. But if I would have to queue with those that require visas, there are 25 other countries that will let me in without looking at my passport and they will start to become more attractive as holiday destinations.


Tourists won’t have to queue much. They’ve installed e-kiosks for current non-EU nationals from western countries that will presumably be usable by EU nationals after 1 Jan. Not sure about visa holders, but doubt that will mean much anyway. It’s pretty quick now relative to two-three years ago. No (or rare) interaction with border officers, which saves time.

I would take anything coming from Brexiteers on this front with a pinch of salt; the UK relies a lot more on EU tourism than the other way round.
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:23 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
I've had some great trips to the UK and I would love to go back once the pandemic is over. But if I would have to queue with those that require visas, there are 25 other countries that will let me in without looking at my passport and they will start to become more attractive as holiday destinations.




I would take anything coming from Brexiteers on this front with a pinch of salt; the UK relies a lot more on EU tourism than the other way round.


Really?

The UK is more reliant on tourists from Spain and Greece than they are for UK citizens taking vacations there.

Wow I never knew that.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:28 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
Bostrom wrote:
I've had some great trips to the UK and I would love to go back once the pandemic is over. But if I would have to queue with those that require visas, there are 25 other countries that will let me in without looking at my passport and they will start to become more attractive as holiday destinations.




I would take anything coming from Brexiteers on this front with a pinch of salt; the UK relies a lot more on EU tourism than the other way round.


Really?

The UK is more reliant on tourists from Spain and Greece than they are for UK citizens taking vacations there.

Wow I never knew that.


Exactly. While individual countries (Spain, Greece, etc.) might be more reliant on UK tourism, for the EU as a whole it's the other way around.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:49 pm

JJJ wrote:
Exactly. While individual countries (Spain, Greece, etc.) might be more reliant on UK tourism, for the EU as a whole it's the other way around.


Not really, UK outbound tourism to the EU was 72.4mn whereas it received from the EU 24.8mn tourists in 2019.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/290518/annual-visits-by-united-kingdom-uk-residents-to-europe/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/616823/number-of-visits-from-european-union-to-the-united-kingdom-uk/
Last edited by LJ on Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:56 pm

And if the visa costs could stop boozed brits flocking with ryanair, it could be a bonus....
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ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:18 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
I would take anything coming from Brexiteers on this front with a pinch of salt; the UK relies a lot more on EU tourism than the other way round.


Really?

The UK is more reliant on tourists from Spain and Greece than they are for UK citizens taking vacations there.

Wow I never knew that.


You’re being too modest. You probably knew that. More likely a case of comprehension or cognitive malfunction.

Re-read what you quoted. It says: “the UK relies a lot more on EU tourism than the other way round”.

Here’s the basis for that:

UK tourism in 2018: 37.9 million
EU tourism to the UK in 2018: 23 million

https://www.visitbritain.org/nation-region-county-data

That’s what...60%+ of the UK’s tourism originating in the EU?

By contrast, only 18 million of Spain’s 80 million + tourists are British. That’s less than 25%. And that’s for Spain alone.

The Greece data is more dated (i.e. 2015), but UK visitors come up at less than 10% there.

Probably explains Greece’s decision to keep UK visitors out even after the UK dropped the 14 day quarantine as part of the safe air bridges program. Seems they’re not particularly fussed about the UK visitors they’re missing.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ement.html

But that’s all by the by. The point is that the EU and the UK - and not Spain and Greece - will set entry requirements. If the UK makes it a nuisance for EU visitors to visit, EU folk have a lot of similarly priced/accessible areas to visit with no border checks.

The UK losing a chunk of EU tourism on the other hand...

Or maybe you didn’t really know that, and we can add it to the (long) list of things that Brexiteers thought they knew, but really didn’t know. Like our favorite UK couple - the newly minted twitter stars in the thread above.
 
JJJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:18 pm

LJ wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Exactly. While individual countries (Spain, Greece, etc.) might be more reliant on UK tourism, for the EU as a whole it's the other way around.


Not really, UK outbound tourism to the EU is 72.4mn whereas it receives from the EU 24.8mn tourists.


The way I look at it those 24,8 million tourists are over 60% of all tourism arrivals in the UK, whereas UK visitors in Europe make up something like 11% of EU's total approx 670m international arrivals.

That's what I meant by rely on.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:21 pm

Olddog wrote:
And if the visa costs could stop boozed brits flocking with ryanair, it could be a bonus....


Indeed, COVID-19 was a blessing for some living in the city centre of Amsterdam, but no UK bachelor parties in Amsterdam will also be a positive side effect of Brexit.
 
ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:27 pm

LJ wrote:
JJJ wrote:
Exactly. While individual countries (Spain, Greece, etc.) might be more reliant on UK tourism, for the EU as a whole it's the other way around.


Not really, UK outbound tourism to the EU was 72.4mn whereas it received from the EU 24.8mn tourists in 2019.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/290518/annual-visits-by-united-kingdom-uk-residents-to-europe/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/616823/number-of-visits-from-european-union-to-the-united-kingdom-uk/


Those are meaningless stats in isolation. The UK only received 40 million tourists in 2019. As such, EU origin tourism made up approximately 60% of UK tourism.

Meanwhile (in 2017), France, Spain, Italy, and Germany recorded a combined 264 million tourists (probably higher in 2019).

Even if we assume the 2017 numbers are static, all of the UK’s outbound tourism made up around 27% of tourism to the top 4 EU destinations.

Suspect that will drop off to less than 15% or less when all the EU countries are factored in.

Which one is more reliant on the other: the one that gets 60% of its tourists from the other, or the one that gets 15% (or even, for the sake of argument, 30%)?
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:41 am

The first face-to-face talks didn't open up anything. Next round is scheduled in London next week.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/02/brexit-talks-break-up-early-over-serious-disagreements-michel-barnier
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:04 am

Now policy from Westminster: about 3.000.000 people are allegeable to work and life in the UK and in the end become a British citizen. Sure extraordinary circumstances, but still.

link
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:07 am

LJ wrote:
The first face-to-face talks didn't open up anything. Next round is scheduled in London next week.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/02/brexit-talks-break-up-early-over-serious-disagreements-michel-barnier


And nothing will come of these talks. One party wants a unicorn and the other party can't give them. If there is a deal to be struck, it will be in November or December timeframe.
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ElPistolero
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sat Jul 04, 2020 2:34 pm

Dutchy wrote:
LJ wrote:
The first face-to-face talks didn't open up anything. Next round is scheduled in London next week.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/02/brexit-talks-break-up-early-over-serious-disagreements-michel-barnier


And nothing will come of these talks. One party wants a unicorn and the other party can't give them. If there is a deal to be struck, it will be in November or December timeframe.


Does it matter though? We all know how this ends: with Brexiteers claiming victory.

They will claim a victory if there is a deal. They will claim a victory if there is no deal. They will claim a victory even if there is a border within their “sovereign” state (oh wait, that’s already happened). They will claim a victory even if Scotland and Wales exit the union. They will claim a victory even if the UK economy takes a beating.

The mistake non-Brexiteers make here is assuming that there are tangible benchmarks for claiming victory (maintaining the Union, economic prosperity etc). There isn’t any; this is a quasi-religious movement. And every setback - no matter how bad - is merely part of “God’s plan” for a better destiny.

Deals require economic pragmatism and realism. Leavers loudly proclaim that they don’t care about that stuff. There’ll be a fudge. It’ll be exactly what we expect - the EU getting most of what it wants and leaving the room quietly (like it did with the border down the Irish Sea), while Brexiteers will hail a great victory with a deal that achieves a lot less than they claimed it would over the years, and probably causes even greater political and cultural division within the UK.

We’re reaching the point where the EU would be better off quietly securing its interests and letting the other side be the empty vessels that make the most noise.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:03 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
LJ wrote:
The first face-to-face talks didn't open up anything. Next round is scheduled in London next week.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/02/brexit-talks-break-up-early-over-serious-disagreements-michel-barnier


And nothing will come of these talks. One party wants a unicorn and the other party can't give them. If there is a deal to be struck, it will be in November or December timeframe.


Does it matter though? We all know how this ends: with Brexiteers claiming victory.

They will claim a victory if there is a deal. They will claim a victory if there is no deal. They will claim a victory even if there is a border within their “sovereign” state (oh wait, that’s already happened). They will claim a victory even if Scotland and Wales exit the union. They will claim a victory even if the UK economy takes a beating.

The mistake non-Brexiteers make here is assuming that there are tangible benchmarks for claiming victory (maintaining the Union, economic prosperity etc). There isn’t any; this is a quasi-religious movement. And every setback - no matter how bad - is merely part of “God’s plan” for a better destiny.

Deals require economic pragmatism and realism. Leavers loudly proclaim that they don’t care about that stuff. There’ll be a fudge. It’ll be exactly what we expect - the EU getting most of what it wants and leaving the room quietly (like it did with the border down the Irish Sea), while Brexiteers will hail a great victory with a deal that achieves a lot less than they claimed it would over the years, and probably causes even greater political and cultural division within the UK.


Oh sure, Johnson and his friends will claim victory no matter what. It is beyond content politics.

I would hope we are a bit beyond this and could have a little more depth on this forum, but perhaps that is indeed too much to ask from some.

ElPistolero wrote:
We’re reaching the point where the EU would be better off quietly securing its interests and letting the other side be the empty vessels that make the most noise.


:checkmark: This is what is happening anyway, in the real world at least.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:19 pm

Phil, I mentioned on the previous page, was pretty sure Cummings/BoJo wanted no deal. Now, he's not so sure, because the UK really doesn't seem to be trying to be ready for it. There is no real plan, only soundbites.

So he's reviewing the idea that they believe a last minute deal full of unicorns etc. is possible.

Or a "fudge" that they will sell as a good deal.

Unicorns are of course impossible, but even the fudge, it's not a given that the EU can do anything at the last minute. Also, would his Brexit obsessed MPs even vote for a fudge ?
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:25 pm

Boris has learned from Donald. The US has ended the pandemic. Now the UK will triumph in Brexit.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:23 am

For EU the game is over long time ago.

Ms Merkel do not even pretend to put too much effort during the german period that starts now.
 
AeroVega
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:41 pm

Dutchy wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
We’re reaching the point where the EU would be better off quietly securing its interests and letting the other side be the empty vessels that make the most noise.


:checkmark: This is what is happening anyway, in the real world at least.


Not nearly enough, though. You would think three years is plenty of time for the EU to wean itself off the City of London, but it seems that the EU has achieved very little so far.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Jul 05, 2020 4:54 pm

AeroVega wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
We’re reaching the point where the EU would be better off quietly securing its interests and letting the other side be the empty vessels that make the most noise.


:checkmark: This is what is happening anyway, in the real world at least.


Not nearly enough, though. You would think three years is plenty of time for the EU to wean itself off the City of London, but it seems that the EU has achieved very little so far.



My experience from corporate is that corporate is like small children.

If they complain everything is fine. If there is no sound be aware!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Jul 05, 2020 6:00 pm

AeroVega wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
We’re reaching the point where the EU would be better off quietly securing its interests and letting the other side be the empty vessels that make the most noise.


:checkmark: This is what is happening anyway, in the real world at least.


Not nearly enough, though. You would think three years is plenty of time for the EU to wean itself off the City of London, but it seems that the EU has achieved very little so far.


So what is the EU missing in your eyes, and be concrete? Finance is one aspect, but there are a lot more.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Jul 05, 2020 8:53 pm

The EU has been warning banks and investment firms for four years now. Banks etc. have been making plans. It is still legal for individuals and companies to use London. I suspect even last minute plans will allow time for those services which need to be moved to do so and give them a few more months. A lot of services are already moved, or ready to be moved.
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:13 am

And trillions of euros have already been moved too.
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LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Jul 06, 2020 6:00 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The EU has been warning banks and investment firms for four years now. Banks etc. have been making plans. It is still legal for individuals and companies to use London. I suspect even last minute plans will allow time for those services which need to be moved to do so and give them a few more months. A lot of services are already moved, or ready to be moved.


It takes time to move the business. It's not like pulling a switch and everything goes smooth. This kind of transfers need time as one cannot make mistakes. Once the regulation was final, everything was set in motion, but lead times are long for migrating the volume of trades we're talking about here. Especially as regulatory approvals were/are needed.It's not like financial firms have done nothing since 2016. If only the EU and UK made up their mind earlier and stick to it, then everything would have been done months ago.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:27 am

LJ wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The EU has been warning banks and investment firms for four years now. Banks etc. have been making plans. It is still legal for individuals and companies to use London. I suspect even last minute plans will allow time for those services which need to be moved to do so and give them a few more months. A lot of services are already moved, or ready to be moved.


It takes time to move the business. It's not like pulling a switch and everything goes smooth. This kind of transfers need time as one cannot make mistakes. Once the regulation was final, everything was set in motion, but lead times are long for migrating the volume of trades we're talking about here. Especially as regulatory approvals were/are needed.It's not like financial firms have done nothing since 2016. If only the EU and UK made up their mind earlier and stick to it, then everything would have been done months ago.


I am quite confident that the EU has emergency protocols in place for essential industries, financial among them. As do all financial institutions, hit by a hard Brexit. Would not be a real problem.
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LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:08 am

Dutchy wrote:
LJ wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The EU has been warning banks and investment firms for four years now. Banks etc. have been making plans. It is still legal for individuals and companies to use London. I suspect even last minute plans will allow time for those services which need to be moved to do so and give them a few more months. A lot of services are already moved, or ready to be moved.


It takes time to move the business. It's not like pulling a switch and everything goes smooth. This kind of transfers need time as one cannot make mistakes. Once the regulation was final, everything was set in motion, but lead times are long for migrating the volume of trades we're talking about here. Especially as regulatory approvals were/are needed.It's not like financial firms have done nothing since 2016. If only the EU and UK made up their mind earlier and stick to it, then everything would have been done months ago.


I am quite confident that the EU has emergency protocols in place for essential industries, financial among them. As do all financial institutions, hit by a hard Brexit. Would not be a real problem.


The contingency plan is that the EU delay the requirement. It has already applied that contingency plan as financial institutions have till end of June 2021 to have everything which requires EU domicile to be moved to an EU country.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:05 pm

LJ wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
LJ wrote:

It takes time to move the business. It's not like pulling a switch and everything goes smooth. This kind of transfers need time as one cannot make mistakes. Once the regulation was final, everything was set in motion, but lead times are long for migrating the volume of trades we're talking about here. Especially as regulatory approvals were/are needed.It's not like financial firms have done nothing since 2016. If only the EU and UK made up their mind earlier and stick to it, then everything would have been done months ago.


I am quite confident that the EU has emergency protocols in place for essential industries, financial among them. As do all financial institutions, hit by a hard Brexit. Would not be a real problem.


The contingency plan is that the EU delay the requirement. It has already applied that contingency plan as financial institutions have till end of June 2021 to have everything which requires EU domicile to be moved to an EU country.


there you go, it is a non-issue.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Jul 06, 2020 4:16 pm

agill wrote:


Is anyone really surprised?
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LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:04 am

Seems that the EU is willing to compromise regarding fisheries. However, it will be interesting to see if the UK will accept the offer as this is not entirely what the UK wants. Judging by the replies by Brexiteers under the article, probably not.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-willing-allow-uk-break-175248699.html
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:31 am

Don't lose your sleep over theses meaningless soundbites you can hear on your side of the channel: you perfectly know that we are heading for a total no deal as the brexiters will never allow a deal :)
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Reinhardt
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:18 am

Seems Boris is now telling EU heads of state that the UK will leave on Australian terms if no deal happens. Problem is, that's BS because Australia has specific agreements in various sectors. So if the UK wants those terms, it has to agree them with the EU!!

And now the govenment is finally admitting that various boarder posts will have to be built in N Ireland, something the DUP are up in arms about. After years of denying it would happen, the govenment are now saying 'we warned you all along it was a possibility'.

Meanwhile Mark Francois is threatening the head of the UK's Armed Forces with having to deal with Dominic Cummings.

It's farcical.
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:39 am

Anyway you can't make the same deal with a country 15 000 km closer to the EU.
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Aesma
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:21 pm

Reinhardt wrote:
Seems Boris is now telling EU heads of state that the UK will leave on Australian terms if no deal happens. Problem is, that's BS because Australia has specific agreements in various sectors. So if the UK wants those terms, it has to agree them with the EU!!


Or you could say there is basically no deal (yet) with Australia, and thus he's promising no deal while obfuscating that fact.
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LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:03 pm

It seems that the UK is learning from the EU in how to deal with small trading partners in fish. UK's distant waters fishing fleet wants to leverage UKs position as net importer of fish from Norway, Iceland, Greenland and the Faroes in order to gain access to their fishing grounds....As such they see Brexit as an opportunity.

https://ukfisheries.net/media-centre/uk-can-order-tasty-fishing-deal-from-nordic-states
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:37 pm

If you remember the Cod Wars, it will be fun to watch.
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:43 am

LJ wrote:
It seems that the UK is learning from the EU in how to deal with small trading partners in fish. UK's distant waters fishing fleet wants to leverage UKs position as net importer of fish from Norway, Iceland, Greenland and the Faroes in order to gain access to their fishing grounds....As such they see Brexit as an opportunity.

https://ukfisheries.net/media-centre/uk-can-order-tasty-fishing-deal-from-nordic-states


As everything with Brexit, very self-centered and a general "entitled" attitude. Rules are for others, not us. What is reasonable for people giving to the UK is so much more than the other way around. These countries will probably turn the UK down.
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bennett123
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:17 am

LJ

So we have Herring and Chips.

Incidentally, what are Neoprops?.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:48 am

This will probably dismissed as "Project Fear", but the British Retail Consortium has calculated that a no-deal Brexit will increase prices of ordinary items like school uniforms, beef, staplers and drinking glasses substantially. Then again, it seems that the UK government cares, thus why bother pointing to these negative consequences........Then again, at least the Brexiteers cannot say they weren't warned about the price increases in case of a hard Brexit (though they'll probably find a way to blame the retailers and/or the EU anyway)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/10/no-deal-brexit-will-raise-cost-of-uk-household-staples-say-retailers
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:00 am

The government in London is focused on what will be the real economic war between the City and the EU.

It is understandable because it is most of ht UK GDP.....
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:41 pm

Please continue your discussion and to post your updates here:

Brexit Part IX: Final rush to No Deal

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