noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:02 am

Dutchy wrote:
A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
OMG you still don't get ECHR is not an EU institution ?? You didn't left it !


To be a member of the EU one has to be a part of the ECHR under EU law, once we leave the vassalage of the EU we can either quit the ECHR or form an independent body set in the UK, and one of the fundamental reasons for the EU insisting on a LPF for a trade deal as we are no longer bound by EU charter of fundamental rights


So you want out of the Council of Europe too? So from 47 states to 46. Fine why not. Makes it easier to abuse human rights in Britain. May I ask why though? Don't you like your human rights you enjoy?


Article 8 is fairly bad.

Makes deporting undesirables that much harder.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:28 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
Article 8 is fairly bad.

Makes deporting undesirables that much harder.


Article 8, ECHR wrote:
Article 8 – Right to respect for private and family life

1. Everyone has the right to respect for his private and family life, his home and his correspondence.

2. There shall be no interference by a public authority with the exercise of this right except such as is in accordance with the law and is necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security, public safety or the economic well-being of the country, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, or for the protection of the rights and freedoms of others.


So you do not believe in this? At least you point to something concrete to be against.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:51 am

Arion640 wrote:
If it needs to be extended it will be a last minute extension to put maximum pressure on the EU.


As the transition can't be extended without the EU agreeing there is zero pressure on our side. If one is needed, the UK will beg for one as for the previous ones :)
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
noviorbis77
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:46 pm

Dutchy wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Article 8 is fairly bad.

Makes deporting undesirables that much harder.


Article 8, ECHR wrote:
Article 8 – Right to respect for private and family life

1. Everyone has the right to respect for his private and family life, his home and his correspondence.

2. There shall be no interference by a public authority with the exercise of this right except such as is in accordance with the law and is necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security, public safety or the economic well-being of the country, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, or for the protection of the rights and freedoms of others.


So you do not believe in this? At least you point to something concrete to be against.


It is wooley
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:33 pm

Olddog wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
If it needs to be extended it will be a last minute extension to put maximum pressure on the EU.


As the transition can't be extended without the EU agreeing there is zero pressure on our side. If one is needed, the UK will beg for one as for the previous ones :)


Don't spoil all the fun just yet, olddog... ;)

Nothing more pathetic than a blackmailer trying to blackmail you with something everybody knows already for a long time and has thus no more value... :)

It's by now getting truly pathetic how the UK has been seeking something to have the upper hand with in these negotiations for over 4 years now: let's just say that any sensible person would have come to the conclusion by now that since it hasn't been found, it probably just isnt there, but hey: brexit negotiations seem to is all about doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
.
Anyway, no ECHR means no extraditions to the UK and no access to any security information from the EU either; it's a 2 way street of course: the word cherry picking clearly isn't an English word any longer, since it is no longer understood in the UK.
Last edited by sabenapilot on Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:36 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Now, with the UK out of the EU, the protection of the ECJ ruling will be removed at the end of the transition period, meaning that the ECB would have to somehow change its rules to allow euroclearing to continue to be performed in London, meaning it would not only have to renegade on its own historical objectives of having euroclearing performed within the eurozone, it would even have to agree to relax it further so euro clearing could continue to take place outside of the EU now!


You're incorrect. The EUR clearing has to be in an EU country by April 1st 2020 (hence why my employer is moving part of its business out of London). This part is already lost for London as the changing these type of rules take a lot of time (and it's not necessary as everybody who needs to leave the UK has already left by April 1st 2020). The UK knows this is lost and will not attempt to get it back.
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:39 pm

Olddog wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
If it needs to be extended it will be a last minute extension to put maximum pressure on the EU.


As the transition can't be extended without the EU agreeing there is zero pressure on our side. If one is needed, the UK will beg for one as for the previous ones :)


However, after July 1st no extension is possible (at least not according to the current agreement). Therefore, a "last minute" extension is very problematic even under the current agreement.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:44 pm

LJ wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Now, with the UK out of the EU, the protection of the ECJ ruling will be removed at the end of the transition period, meaning that the ECB would have to somehow change its rules to allow euroclearing to continue to be performed in London, meaning it would not only have to renegade on its own historical objectives of having euroclearing performed within the eurozone, it would even have to agree to relax it further so euro clearing could continue to take place outside of the EU now!


You're incorrect. The EUR clearing has to be in an EU country by April 1st 2020 (hence why my employer is moving part of its business out of London). This part is already lost for London as the changing these type of rules take a lot of time (and it's not necessary as everybody who needs to leave the UK has already left by April 1st 2020). The UK knows this is lost and will not attempt to get it back.


I stand corrected!

The ECB indeed moved almost immediately after the UK"s letter of withdrawal in 2017 to sharpen its pencils and make its clearing rules much stricter, knowing the favourable ECJ ruling on the position of the city would soon become without substance anyway and the UK would no longer be able to object to it...

Not sure if it is already fully legislated, but the message has unambiguously been sent to all those concerned that there should be no doubt about what is going to happen: there's not going to be any passporting for the UK.

Another proof the EU and its institutions waste no time to hit the UK and hit hard, as soon as it is in their interest and rightfully so: a third country mustn't be done any favours.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:14 pm

Olddog wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
If it needs to be extended it will be a last minute extension to put maximum pressure on the EU.


As the transition can't be extended without the EU agreeing there is zero pressure on our side. If one is needed, the UK will beg for one as for the previous ones :)



Where do you get begging from? The old remain at any cost parliament who were trying everything to disrupt the government from leaving. If the government so choose to extend which I doubt they will the EU will agree to it faster than Jack Robinson
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:43 pm

It is not remain that asked for extensions. Remember that infamous BoJo letter ?
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:57 pm

noviorbis77 wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
Article 8 is fairly bad.

Makes deporting undesirables that much harder.


Article 8, ECHR wrote:
Article 8 – Right to respect for private and family life

1. Everyone has the right to respect for his private and family life, his home and his correspondence.

2. There shall be no interference by a public authority with the exercise of this right except such as is in accordance with the law and is necessary in a democratic society in the interests of national security, public safety or the economic well-being of the country, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, or for the protection of the rights and freedoms of others.


So you do not believe in this? At least you point to something concrete to be against.


It is wooley


excellent argument :roll:
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:07 pm

Tugger wrote:
Am I correct in thinking Britain and the EU are still "married" and that they have only finally agreed to "divorce"? So things are still basically status quo (however with no new investments by each entity into the other) and the process now is divestiture and separation and how that will proceed and look once all is said and done?

Tugg


It is rather a divorced couple that finally agreed to move to separate houses. The divorcing wife now since a few weeks lives in her flat but still want to share the benefits of the ex husband like the skeeing facilities that the ex bother in law used to provide her with. She still have the keys to that and thehouse where she used to live a while more but the ex husbands family aretelling her to give back the keys, wich she never calculated with...
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:26 pm

Olddog wrote:
It is not remain that asked for extensions. Remember that infamous BoJo letter ?



The one forced on him by parliament?
 
Olddog
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:44 pm

No forced by reality check.
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:23 pm

Olddog wrote:
No forced by reality check.



Ya got me stumped,you are talking about A50 extensions?
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:35 am

A101 wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
A101 wrote:

To be a member of the EU one has to be a part of the ECHR under EU law, once we leave the vassalage of the EU we can either quit the ECHR or form an independent body set in the UK, and one of the fundamental reasons for the EU insisting on a LPF for a trade deal as we are no longer bound by EU charter of fundamental rights


UK could withdraw its ECHR membership too if it wants, of course. But there is currently no plan to do so.
Therefore your "in December, no longer will the UK be subjected to ECHR rulings" is... a lie.



It’s not December yet is it!


There’s no shortage of articles out there of various ministers calling for the UK to leave the ECHR including the remain pinup girl Theresa May. Johnson is already in a fight about convicted terrorist on deportation and early parole in that it may contravene ECHR, we have already had the stouch years ago on prisoner voting rights and how the UK defied the ECHR ruling under HIRST v. THE UNITED KINGDOM

The EU is even so worried about it that they have said that it will suspend judicial/law enforcement cooperation if the UK leaves the ECHR, just because it not offical policy yet does not mean we won’t leave it in December


It's not like UK government had commit to respect ECHR framework in the Political Declaration, right ?

Kinda fun to read you advocating for fantasy policy when very real, agreed, policy have yet to be set up before 2021 ! Thinking about the new intra-UK border here. where various ministers and the PM are on record claiming there will be no checks in the UK-NI good flow, in total contradiction with the WA they negotiated and agreed 4 months ago.

Let's not put too much faith in what ministers are saying to the media...
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:10 am

Taking back control, they said.

https://www.ft.com/content/c606c934-4a7 ... d18ec715f5

While the protocol is aimed at goods trade, in practice keeping Northern Ireland in the EU’s customs territory, Mr Peretz said some lawyers might even argue a decision to bail out a UK bank could, if it had a loan book in Northern Ireland, be subject to EU rules. “The reach might be quite large,” he said.
 


WA consequences are yet to be fully understood it seems.

George Peretz QC gives a bit more details in this twitter thread: https://t.co/88jmN9KMDo
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:16 am

Grizzly410 wrote:
Thinking about the new intra-UK border here. where various ministers and the PM are on record claiming there will be no checks in the UK-NI good flow, in total contradiction with the WA they negotiated and agreed 4 months ago.


Indeed:

the general communication strategy is clear: the government are trying to turn Brexit into something purely technical, legalistic and boring for the general public to follow as from now, first by claiming it has happened (whereas it really hasn't: Britain merely moved beyond the point-of-no-return, yet still without knowing its destination), then by avoiding all further references to Brexit and untimately by interpreting whatever technical, legalistic and complicated agreement reached in such a way that it sounds as if they are delivering according to promisses made in the past, even though the agreement itself says something else, all in the hope that nobody will effectively bother to dig dip into the text and see for himself.

The idea seems to be that it doesn't really matter so much what the text says, as long as the electorate in the UK believes it says what the Tories say it does, then that's ok.

The problem with the hard intra-UK border that BoJo signed up to in the WA is of course that it's not going to be something which only few people will ever notice: it's going to be something very real and for all to notice, so how on earth he's ever going to succeed in hiding that element of surrender from view like he plans on so many other things is a complete mystery to me.

Especially with the election result in the RoI of this weekend, there's a nice storm brewing over the territorial integrity. of the UK...
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:46 am

sabenapilot wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
Thinking about the new intra-UK border here. where various ministers and the PM are on record claiming there will be no checks in the UK-NI good flow, in total contradiction with the WA they negotiated and agreed 4 months ago.


Indeed:

the general communication strategy is clear: the government are trying to turn Brexit into something purely technical, legalistic and boring for the general public to follow as from now, first by claiming it has happened (whereas it really hasn't: Britain merely moved beyond the point-of-no-return, yet still without knowing its destination), then by avoiding all further references to Brexit and untimately by interpreting whatever technical, legalistic and complicated agreement reached in such a way that it sounds as if they are delivering according to promisses made in the past, even though the agreement itself says something else, all in the hope that nobody will effectively bother to dig dip into the text and see for himself.

The idea seems to be that it doesn't really matter so much what the text says, as long as the electorate in the UK believes it says what the Tories say it does, then that's ok.

The problem with the hard intra-UK border that BoJo signed up to in the WA if of course that it's not going to be something which only few people will ever notice: it's going to be something very real and for all to notice, so how on earth he's ever going to succeed in hiding that element of surrender from view like he plans on so many other things is a complete mystery to me.

Especially with the election result in the RoI of this weekend, there's a nice storm brewing over the territorial integrity. of the UK...


I think you nailed the communication strategy. That's precisely why whatever comes out in the media from HMG members have to be scrutinized, interpreted and never be taken at face value.
I don't realize the volume of trade flows between UK and NI. I was under the impression the direct impact was limited to company sending goods in NI but that most of NI goods import came from ROI. In any case, the penny will drop only end of 2020, if no extension, an eternity in politics and plenty time to prepare shifting the blame onto somebody else.
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
Ertro
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:34 am

If that is the communication strategy it is not going to work for long. EU is not going to allow BoJo to publicly speak one thing and have papers he signed to say something else. This border issue is going to be clarified quite shortly and EU is going to demand BoJo publicly either acknowledge what EU and BoJo negotiated and signed into the WA and publicly commit to 100% of it or there is no point of starting any further negotations since what is the point?
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:49 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Especially with the election result in the RoI of this weekend, there's a nice storm brewing over the territorial integrity. of the UK...


I told someone last week the election looked like it was going to throw a huge curveball into the Brexit game... This is going to be interesting.
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
sabenapilot
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:57 pm

Ertro wrote:
If that is the communication strategy it is not going to work for long. EU is not going to allow BoJo to publicly speak one thing and have papers he signed to say something else. This border issue is going to be clarified quite shortly and EU is going to demand BoJo publicly either acknowledge what EU and BoJo negotiated and signed into the WA and publicly commit to 100% of it or there is no point of starting any further negotations since what is the point?


Most certainly indeed, but for now the EU let the British Government have its version of the situation for domestic use, mainly because:

1- it's in the short term interest of the EU to have public opinion in Britain calmed down and disinterested in further proceedings, because much of the Brexit mess the UK (and the EU) now find themselves in has been because by stired up emotions, often over non-events;

2- it has allowed the EU to move ahead without much drama, to the point it even handed out an additional £1,3BN bill to the UK without much attention nor public outcry!
There were times in the past when similar technical corrections to the British anual contribution to the EU caused weeklong public debate and heated exchanges between officials in Brussels and grandstanding politicians in Westminster! None of this happened this time round: BoJo simply accepted the bill from his ambassador and paid for it.
What a difference from all the talk of not paying the (full) 40BN euro exit bill a few years ago too…. ;)
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:16 pm

Another loophole is getting plugged as we speak:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rror-links

EU clamps down on free ports over crime and terrorism links
Moves comes as Britain launches consultation on creation of up to 10 of the zones


Brussels is clamping down on 82 free ports or free zones after identifying that their special tariff and duty status has aided the financing of terrorism, money laundering and organised crime.

A set of new rules was introduced by the European commission just weeks before the launch on Monday of a UK government consultation on the creation of up to 10 free ports in post-Brexit Britain.

Authorities across the EU have been obliged since 10 January to take extra measures to identify and report suspicious activities at the ports and zones as a result of the “high incidence of corruption, tax evasion, criminal activity”.

The EU’s executive branch has said it will review the issue again next year owing to the popularity of such ports among high-net-worth individuals and criminal organisations seeking to circumvent recent crackdowns on bank secrecy.


Rishi Sunak, the chief secretary to the UK Treasury, falsely claimed on Monday that “the EU is pretty much the only place in the world that doesn’t use free ports”. In reality, the EU’s customs code does allow for free ports or zones and there are 82 of them across the countries that are subject to its regulations.

By implication this means that the EU would look at UK free zones in a similar way as at other foreign tax and regulation shelters which are becoming less and less viable due to pressure by the USA and by the EU already.

Proposing that kind of thing of tax and regulation evasion support as a big boon for the UK after Brexit clearly hasn't remained unnoticed by the EU, but this has been an independently ongoing development anyway (which the UK has been resisting when it still could).
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:13 pm

sabenapilot wrote:
Guess what the new ECB rules will say on euro clearing and what massive impact that will have on the turn over of the City of London once the new rules take effect? ;)
In terms of FTE, the hit is going to be modest, but in terms of GDB, it's potentially massive, with knock on effects on the UK's economic ranking and its credit ratings, especially in view of the spending spray the tories plan to make good for the decade of austerity.

So from that perspective, a hard exit at 31-Dec would be preferable to a death of 1,000 cuts, I can see the ostrich mentality taking hold in London....
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:15 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Especially with the election result in the RoI of this weekend, there's a nice storm brewing over the territorial integrity. of the UK...


I told someone last week the election looked like it was going to throw a huge curveball into the Brexit game... This is going to be interesting.

If there is a re-unification vote it would simplify things, it would remove the only land border between the UK and the EU since there would be no UK on the island of Ireland.
Interesting....
 
LJ
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:25 pm

I recall that the UK government mentioned that the "smart" borders were ready to implement. Now it will take till 2025 (excluding any delay, which usually happen with these types of projects). On the postive side, Gove is honest about what businesses should expect.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/checks-on-eu-bound-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:45 pm

LJ wrote:
I recall that the UK government mentioned that the "smart" borders were ready to implement. Now it will take till 2025 (excluding any delay, which usually happen with these types of projects). On the postive side, Gove is honest about what businesses should expect.

Total divergence with the coveted no deal has adverse consequences?

I'm shocked to hear!

So the lying has hit the buffers at long last. Let's see how that's developing further...
 
Klaus
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:50 pm

par13del wrote:
If there is a re-unification vote it would simplify things, it would remove the only land border between the UK and the EU since there would be no UK on the island of Ireland.
Interesting....

Tory members seem to agree with Sinn Fein that the UK should get rid of Northern Ireland to more fully immerse itself into Brexit instead.

How times change...!
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:53 pm

LJ wrote:
I recall that the UK government mentioned that the "smart" borders were ready to implement. Now it will take till 2025 (excluding any delay, which usually happen with these types of projects). On the postive side, Gove is honest about what businesses should expect.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/checks-on-eu-bound-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders

If business leaders are sitting waiting on the government to tell them and or confirm to them that there will be a border between the EU and the UK heaven help the UK, in a nutsheel it means that they have been doing business with someone without any understanding if what is going on.
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 7:55 pm

Klaus wrote:
par13del wrote:
If there is a re-unification vote it would simplify things, it would remove the only land border between the UK and the EU since there would be no UK on the island of Ireland.
Interesting....

Tory members seem to agree with Sinn Fein that the UK should get rid of Northern Ireland to more fully immerse itself into Brexit instead.

How times change...!

The writing has been on the wall for those who want to see, even as simple as the birthrate between Catholics and Protestants, the majority of NI if not already there will be Catholic in short order.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:09 pm

Res protestants versus catholics: It was always a tribal war more than a religious war. Now that younger generations are placing less and less importance on organized religions it is becoming less of a problem. The typical ROI person probably has a lot of similarity in beliefs with NI protestants.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:12 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Res protestants versus catholics: It was always a tribal war more than a religious war. Now that younger generations are placing less and less importance on organized religions it is becoming less of a problem. The typical ROI person probably has a lot of similarity in beliefs with NI protestants.

Hence the result of the abortion vote, however......some things are more difficult to change.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:34 pm

With NI staying into the SM the NI is on the path to a united Ireland and the first part of UK gone.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:37 pm

olle wrote:
With NI staying into the SM the NI is on the path to a united Ireland and the first part of UK gone.


That was always on the cards within a generation or two irrespective if the UK remained in the EU or not. But with the ROI still to nut out who is going to be the next Taoiseach and party forming government, while Sinn Féin has publicly come out saying they want a border poll within 5 years it is not in any of the parties manifesto as they are not sure if a return to violence will occur if it is pushed. But it is up to the UK to pull the trigger on a border poll. I can’t see a border poll happening within this term of parliament of either the UK or ROI.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:36 pm

If NI remains in the single market and customs union it really doesn't make all that much difference whether or not all of Ireland is formally united. In terms of everyday life it does not make that much difference. And if NI and the UK remain somewhat united it will mean that ROI, NI, and the UK will be more simpatico than those inflaming the troubles ever could have imagined.
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:50 pm

Well if Sinn Fein becomes a bigger part of government their mandate on reunification trumps trade, so it will always be front and center.
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:30 pm

par13del wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
sabenapilot wrote:
Especially with the election result in the RoI of this weekend, there's a nice storm brewing over the territorial integrity. of the UK...


I told someone last week the election looked like it was going to throw a huge curveball into the Brexit game... This is going to be interesting.

If there is a re-unification vote it would simplify things, it would remove the only land border between the UK and the EU since there would be no UK on the island of Ireland.
Interesting....


I find it hilarious how you think a political party in a completely different country has any standing or influence over another countries territory.

Yes, SF exists in Northern Ireland, but a SF Government in Dublin has absolutely zero power to get North Ireland into the ROI.

And like I’ve said before, any attempt at Irish unification will cause a civil war.
1973-2020
 
Arion640
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:32 pm

In other news...

Britain continues to unite and level up.

Government to pledge £5bn for bus services and cycling routes https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51453457

HS2: Government to give high-speed rail line the go-ahead https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51443421

The government has given the go ahead to build a new high speed line to help connect our country. Heathrow will have to be approved, so we can start to gain that traffic back from Schiphol.
1973-2020
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:20 am

Arion640 wrote:
I find it hilarious how you think a political party in a completely different country has any standing or influence over another countries territory.

Yes, SF exists in Northern Ireland, but a SF Government in Dublin has absolutely zero power to get North Ireland into the ROI.

And like I’ve said before, any attempt at Irish unification will cause a civil war.

It is as hilarious as the head of Ireland loosing his job while working on Brexit and ensuring the UK stays aligned to the EU, or Sinn Fein actually getting the majority votes in an election, taking up their seats in NI or better yet, being the only political party with seats in both legislatures on the island.
Funny as hell.....

As for the civil war, some folks say the civil war ended because the EU was the unifying factor, the un-biased third party, so if a vote takes place in 5 years and the result is unification a civil war will break out? Is this when we say the people do not know what is in their best interest?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:04 am

par13del wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
I find it hilarious how you think a political party in a completely different country has any standing or influence over another countries territory.

Yes, SF exists in Northern Ireland, but a SF Government in Dublin has absolutely zero power to get North Ireland into the ROI.

And like I’ve said before, any attempt at Irish unification will cause a civil war.

It is as hilarious as the head of Ireland loosing his job while working on Brexit and ensuring the UK stays aligned to the EU, or Sinn Fein actually getting the majority votes in an election, taking up their seats in NI or better yet, being the only political party with seats in both legislatures on the island.
Funny as hell.....

As for the civil war, some folks say the civil war ended because the EU was the unifying factor, the un-biased third party, so if a vote takes place in 5 years and the result is unification a civil war will break out? Is this when we say the people do not know what is in their best interest?




Re: NI possible civil war after a border poll


The problem is not if the unification is won by even a landslide, it’s the disenfranchised who oppose unification taking up arms, it could be as little as 10% of the population. Who’s problem is it then the EU’s or the UK’s?
 
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par13del
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:35 am

A101 wrote:
The problem is not if the unification is won by even a landslide, it’s the disenfranchised who oppose unification taking up arms, it could be as little as 10% of the population. Who’s problem is it then the EU’s or the UK’s?

Now you get to the real issue, the EU and Remain supporters said Brexit could restart the troubles, now that the border is in the Irish sea that threat has gone away.
Now Sinn Fein is on the way to being a political force, a reunification vote may come sooner rather than later and it will not be initiated by the UK proper. So how would the EU prevent such a vote when the GFA does not prevent it, and the Republic has been calling for reunification for decades?
Ultimately, it will be everyone's problem, and rather than a Brexit project fear talking point, this one is real.
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:25 am

par13del wrote:
A101 wrote:
The problem is not if the unification is won by even a landslide, it’s the disenfranchised who oppose unification taking up arms, it could be as little as 10% of the population. Who’s problem is it then the EU’s or the UK’s?


Now you get to the real issue, the EU and Remain supporters said Brexit could restart the troubles, now that the border is in the Irish sea that threat has gone away.


The problem is it really hasn’t gone away, there has been sporadic violence since the inception of the GFA.


par13del wrote:
[
Now Sinn Fein is on the way to being a political force, a reunification vote may come sooner rather than later and it will not be initiated by the UK proper. So how would the EU prevent such a vote when the GFA does not prevent it, and the Republic has been calling for reunification for decades?
Ultimately, it will be everyone's problem, and rather than a Brexit project fear talking point, this one is real.


The only one who can initiate the poll is the UK the EU can advise but can’t compel the UK to hold one, but on the other hand I don’t think the UK will stop it either if there is overwhelming support within the electorate to hold it.

Once the agreement is in place and turned over it then becomes an internal problem for the EU. I imagine an agreement will take place between the UK /EU to those who want to settle in the UK but that’s not going to be the end of it I suspect.
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:40 am

A101 wrote:
par13del wrote:
A101 wrote:
The problem is not if the unification is won by even a landslide, it’s the disenfranchised who oppose unification taking up arms, it could be as little as 10% of the population. Who’s problem is it then the EU’s or the UK’s?


Now you get to the real issue, the EU and Remain supporters said Brexit could restart the troubles, now that the border is in the Irish sea that threat has gone away.


The problem is it really hasn’t gone away, there has been sporadic violence since the inception of the GFA.


par13del wrote:
[
Now Sinn Fein is on the way to being a political force, a reunification vote may come sooner rather than later and it will not be initiated by the UK proper. So how would the EU prevent such a vote when the GFA does not prevent it, and the Republic has been calling for reunification for decades?
Ultimately, it will be everyone's problem, and rather than a Brexit project fear talking point, this one is real.




The only one who can initiate the poll is the UK the EU can advise but can’t compel the UK to hold one, but on the other hand I don’t think the UK will stop it either if there is overwhelming support within the electorate to hold it.

Once the agreement is in place and turned over it then becomes an internal problem for the EU. I imagine an agreement will take place between the UK /EU to those who want to settle in the UK but that’s not going to be the end of it I suspect.


Is it not defined into GFA how to trigger an referendum? Even if it is up to UK as I remember it is not an UK government / parliament business?
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:45 am

UK government says that there will be hard borders to EU and NI.

Computer systems to support administration will not be in place before 2025 and this means that it will be a lot of administration at the borders;


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 28211.html
 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:47 am

One question; with the trade uk EU / NI in a mess, the election of a united ROI /NI about to happen within 5-10 years, no FTA UK USA on deasent terms for UK, what is left of project fear? Scotland leaves the union?
 
A101
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:57 am

olle wrote:

Is it not defined into GFA how to trigger an referendum? Even if it is up to UK as I remember it is not an UK government / parliament business?



It would be pretty silly not to define the procedure for a border poll within the Belfast Agreement, but here it is for you.

DRAFT CLAUSES/SCHEDULES FOR INCORPORATION IN BRITISH LEGISLATION

1. (1) It is hereby declared that Northern Ireland in its entirety remains part of the United Kingdom and shall not cease to be so without the consent of a majority of the people of Northern Ireland voting in a poll held for the purposes of this section in accordance with Schedule 1.

(2) But if the wish expressed by a majority in such a poll is that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland, the Secretary of State shall lay before Parliament such proposals to give effect to that wish as may be agreed between Her Majesty’s Government in the United Kingdom and the Government of Ireland.

2. The Government of Ireland Act 1920 is repealed; and this Act shall have effect notwithstanding any other previous enactment.


SCHEDULE 1

POLLS FOR THE PURPOSE OF SECTION 1

1. The Secretary of State may by order direct the holding of a poll for the purposes of section 1 on a date specified in the order.

2. Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.

3. The Secretary of State shall not make an order under paragraph 1 earlier than seven years after the holding of a previous poll under this Schedule.



 
olle
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:09 am

EU will not allow long term access for finanial services..

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... -live-news
 
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Grizzly410
Posts: 324
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:50 am

olle wrote:
UK government says that there will be hard borders to EU and NI.

Computer systems to support administration will not be in place before 2025 and this means that it will be a lot of administration at the borders;


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 28211.html


British Retail Consortium seems rather skeptical to Gove announcement, though.

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/polit ... ove/11/02/

Andrew Opie, BRC director of food and sustainability, said ministers needed to set out detailed plans on how the controls would be implemented if the flow of goods to consumers was to be maintained.
“Government will need to move fast if it intends to provide the necessary infrastructure to carry out full border controls on imported goods from January 2021,” he said.
“Without the necessary infrastructure up and running from day one, consumers in the UK will see significant disruption, particularly in the availability of fresh fruit and vegetables.
“Staff will need to be hired and trained to carry out these checks on the thousands of lorries that enter the UK every day.
“IT systems must be adapted and tested. Holding facilities for lorries, particularly at Dover and Folkestone, will need to be constructed.
“It is not enough to announce checks will take place, we must see plans now as to how this will be possible in practice, or it will be consumers who suffer on January 1.”


BRC lists the following checks that in theory will require new forms :
- Rules of origin
- Sanitary and Phytosanitary
- VAT
- Customs
- Safety and security
- Excise
- Transit
- Export health certificate
In order to be old and wise, one must first be young and dumb.
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:02 am

A101 wrote:
olle wrote:

Is it not defined into GFA how to trigger an referendum? Even if it is up to UK as I remember it is not an UK government / parliament business?



It would be pretty silly not to define the procedure for a border poll within the Belfast Agreement, but here it is for you
[snip]


As mentioned earlier, if the general population of NI want a poll, and Eire wants a poll, it would be foolish for the secretary of state to refuse to hold said poll. If anything is likely to re-light the troubles: that would do it!
"As with most things related to aircraft design, it's all about the trade-offs and much more nuanced than A.net likes to make out."
 
LJ
Posts: 4989
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Re: Brexit Part 8: the UK government saying what I want is full access and divergence

Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:21 am

Arion640 wrote:
In other news...

Britain continues to unite and level up.

Government to pledge £5bn for bus services and cycling routes https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51453457

HS2: Government to give high-speed rail line the go-ahead https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51443421

The government has given the go ahead to build a new high speed line to help connect our country. Heathrow will have to be approved, so we can start to gain that traffic back from Schiphol.


Good strategy. Next to the billions for the new bridge, NHS, customs (including the IT for "smart border") and various other government agencies as it needs to insource work previously done by the EU civil service, it's going to spend even more. The only question is: Who will pay for it? Did the UK discover a money tree?

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