sonicruiser
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Turkey strikes dozens of Syrian targets, 3 tanks and 1 helicopter after Syrian shelling kills 5 soldiers

Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:30 am

Turkey retaliates after Syrian shelling killed 5 Turkish soldiers, in a sharp escalation of the conflict inching the two sides closer to direct war.

https://www.dw.com/en/turkey-hits-syria ... a-52330322
 
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mad99
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Re: Turkey strikes dozens of Syrian targets, 3 tanks and 1 helicopter after Syrian shelling kills 5 soldiers

Thu Feb 13, 2020 3:45 pm

https://twitter.com/Adnan_Alhusen/statu ... 69376?s=19

Vid of the manpad shooting down the helicopter
Turkey arming jihadists with manpads what could happen?
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Turkey strikes dozens of Syrian targets, 3 tanks and 1 helicopter after Syrian shelling kills 5 soldiers

Sun Feb 16, 2020 7:18 pm

mad99 wrote:
https://twitter.com/Adnan_Alhusen/status/1227857701604069376?s=19

Vid of the manpad shooting down the helicopter
Turkey arming jihadists with manpads what could happen?


That thing was definitely not taken down by bullets. Can't really say for sure yet but seems very unlikely, rebels have been shooting at helicopters for years with all the anti-aircraft guns they have and pretty much never hit anything.

I think it's SNA or HTS filming and TAF doing the actual firing. SNA wouldn't miss the chance to record themselves taking the choppers down even if it was Turkish soldiers that actually fired at it from their post. Turkish troops stand on HTS area. Without a co-operation, HTS would not let them be there. Someone in the subtweets was saying this shows evidence of co-operation between HTS and Turkey, is that true? As in, can we confirm what group it is hanging around there with the Turkish troops who are shooting down helicopters for them?

SCW is a mess, but if there was one rule enforced, no manpads, especially not to HTS. Unbelievable if true. Really dangerous move from Turkey, but I doubt they would be stupid enough to do it because even they have to know its a bad idea to give manpads to rebels. There are enough TAF soldiers in Syria to use before supplying rebels with such a dangerous weapon. Manpads are most likely being used by TAF. Otherwise SNA would have recorded the man shooting down the choppers, instead of just filming the event. Plus, Turkey has tens of thousands personnel on the ground, and no need to retaliate with a proxy for plausible deniability when Syria killed TAF soldiers themselves. It seems like the Turks are doing the firing. With all the meetings between the U.S. and Turkey I'm speculating but I think they agreed to escalate things by taking down these helicopters but only with Turkish operators firing. But will this have a meaningful effect? I doubt that, but we will see.

It’s a terrible situation for Turkey and Erdogan is to blame for this for a large part. However it doesn’t look great for the opposing side either. If SAA through their recent actions manage to mire Turkey into Syria against them it’s going to be a huge problem for them. Remember, up until very recently Turkey didn’t face off against regime. They didn’t even support their proxies with any significant equipment. After last couple of attacks by SAA they gave HTS some goodies and who knows what shot this helicopter down. SAA could have just played it safe and gone around Turkish forces like they have many times before. I think we're past the point of plausible deniability, Erdogan is using the death of Turkish soldiers as a reason to openly escalate things to this level with Assad. Now there is a potential this will get much bloodier for all sides to full on war with SAA and Russia fought for dubious motives in Syria. Fought with either its own troops (very risky) or the uncertain help of rebels... while issue with YPG continues...

Erdogan was pretty clear, I'm surprised Syria decided to test him out. Maybe they thought Aleppo would be safer than Idlib. But Erdogan continually gave out red lines that were broken with extreme impunity. The SAA is actually still taking towns as we speak, in defiance of other things Erdogan said he would prevent them from doing. And they'll keep on marching too. Shooting down a chopper won't do shit. Turkey won’t do anything meaningful. Shooting down a handful of ancient mi-8‘s dropping makeshift bombs from their loading bays are making no difference on the battlefield. I would be surprised if even a single sortie of a Mi-8/Mi-17 dropping barrelbombs had any meaningful impact in an actual battle. Feel free to point out what these ancient mi-8s have ever achieved other than wasting fuel and resources and being a giant PR disaster for the Syrian Government. The Turks will have to physically block them if they want to make any difference besides a show. I wonder what Turkey will do when inevitably the SAA is grounded and RU just takes their place. Russia does most of the flying already. Does Erdogan have the balls to kill Russian pilots in Syrian airspace?

I see Turkeys reluctance towards responding is being interpreted as a weakness, which is very foolish. They have a bloody army right across the border that will obliterate SAA...so question is how far Turkey can be pushed and what the response will be? We have already seen evidence of a Turkish arms convoy attacked and destroyed whether by air or precision artillery. If such attacks continue on any Turkish convoys going south Turkey would have to respond with presumably air cover against the Russia. Irony of ironies, imagine Turkey using those S400's against Russia in Syria. The implications for a very considerable escalation if Russia does not back down over it would be likely. Personally I'd say Turkey would be in a much weaker position. My feeling and its no more than that, is that Idlib will be left for now if not fully surrounded then under easy fire control as moves made from either side to ensure supplying it can be made difficult. Meanwhile NW Aleppo nibbled at and perhaps a move from the East in Latakia. Idlib will be Erdogan's dilemma. Usually, before action, people go "Turkey won't do anything, it's all talk". Once something happens, it's "They are just doing this for publication and votes. It will end quickly". And after the operation they all become experts and say "We all saw this coming, it was just a matter of time before Turkey did this."
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Turkey strikes dozens of Syrian targets, 3 tanks and 1 helicopter after Syrian shelling kills 5 soldiers

Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:49 pm

This is the war that never ends... Yes, it goes on and on my friends...

Also Erdogan is a democratically elected dictator, neither he nor Assad are "good guys". And the continuation of violence is definitely Erdogan's fault this time.
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sonicruiser
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Re: Turkey strikes dozens of Syrian targets, 3 tanks and 1 helicopter after Syrian shelling kills 5 soldiers

Mon Feb 17, 2020 5:25 am

Jouhou wrote:
This is the war that never ends... Yes, it goes on and on my friends...

Also Erdogan is a democratically elected dictator, neither he nor Assad are "good guys". And the continuation of violence is definitely Erdogan's fault this time.


I would disagree on blaming Erdogan. He is a controversial person for many reasons but this is one time where it doesn't really make any sense to blame him for retaliating against Syria. Assad's forces killed at least 10 Turkish soldiers, any country would have responded the same way Turkey did.

That said, Turkey underestimating the strength of Iran and Russia's blitzkrieg capabilities in Syria was a monumentally stupid move that has now left Turkish posts in Syria extremely vulnerable as SAA forces recapture all of Syria at a lightning pace. Turkey is in a very weak position right now and will likely surrender its posts in Syria to SAA, effectively capitulating with some kind of negotiated face saving backroom exit deal. Assad called Erdogan's bluff. So Erdogan's choices are either to surrender to Assad or to launch a major offensive against SAA. It could go either way. 50/50, we'll see what happens.

This whole fiasco reminds me of Obama's infamous "red line" crisis on Syria. If Erdogan doesn't enforce his promise for retaliation with action, he will suffer a similar fate.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ben-rho ... ure-2018-6
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Turkey strikes dozens of Syrian targets, 3 tanks and 1 helicopter after Syrian shelling kills 5 soldiers

Mon Feb 17, 2020 6:00 am

sonicruiser wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
This is the war that never ends... Yes, it goes on and on my friends...

Also Erdogan is a democratically elected dictator, neither he nor Assad are "good guys". And the continuation of violence is definitely Erdogan's fault this time.


I would disagree on blaming Erdogan. He is a controversial person for many reasons but this is one time where it doesn't really make any sense to blame him for retaliating against Syria. Assad's forces killed at least 10 Turkish soldiers, any country would have responded the same way Turkey did.

That said, Turkey underestimating the strength of Iran and Russia's blitzkrieg capabilities in Syria was a monumentally stupid move that has now left Turkish posts in Syria extremely vulnerable as SAA forces recapture all of Syria at a lightning pace. Turkey is in a very weak position right now and will likely surrender its posts in Syria to SAA, effectively capitulating with some kind of negotiated face saving backroom exit deal. Assad called Erdogan's bluff. So Erdogan's choices are either to surrender to Assad or to launch a major offensive against SAA. It could go either way. 50/50, we'll see what happens.

This whole fiasco reminds me of Obama's infamous "red line" crisis on Syria. If Erdogan doesn't enforce his promise for retaliation with action, he will suffer a similar fate.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ben-rho ... ure-2018-6


Exactly, why are Turkish forces in Syria again? Oh right, to kill Kurds. I didn't see him invade Syria when it was a complete apocalyptic mess when the country NEEDED a third party to intervene.
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tu204
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Re: Turkey strikes dozens of Syrian targets, 3 tanks and 1 helicopter after Syrian shelling kills 5 soldiers

Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:43 am

Jouhou wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
Jouhou wrote:
This is the war that never ends... Yes, it goes on and on my friends...

Also Erdogan is a democratically elected dictator, neither he nor Assad are "good guys". And the continuation of violence is definitely Erdogan's fault this time.


I would disagree on blaming Erdogan. He is a controversial person for many reasons but this is one time where it doesn't really make any sense to blame him for retaliating against Syria. Assad's forces killed at least 10 Turkish soldiers, any country would have responded the same way Turkey did.

That said, Turkey underestimating the strength of Iran and Russia's blitzkrieg capabilities in Syria was a monumentally stupid move that has now left Turkish posts in Syria extremely vulnerable as SAA forces recapture all of Syria at a lightning pace. Turkey is in a very weak position right now and will likely surrender its posts in Syria to SAA, effectively capitulating with some kind of negotiated face saving backroom exit deal. Assad called Erdogan's bluff. So Erdogan's choices are either to surrender to Assad or to launch a major offensive against SAA. It could go either way. 50/50, we'll see what happens.

This whole fiasco reminds me of Obama's infamous "red line" crisis on Syria. If Erdogan doesn't enforce his promise for retaliation with action, he will suffer a similar fate.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ben-rho ... ure-2018-6


Exactly, why are Turkish forces in Syria again? Oh right, to kill Kurds. I didn't see him invade Syria when it was a complete apocalyptic mess when the country NEEDED a third party to intervene.


Besides the issue with the Kurds, Turkey is a bit invested in those remaining bearded guys that are getting clobbered by Syrians and Russia right now in what is left of uncontrolled territory.

Plus you have that domestic consumption issue for Erdogan in the eyes of his supporters.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Turkey strikes dozens of Syrian targets, 3 tanks and 1 helicopter after Syrian shelling kills 5 soldiers

Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:28 am

tu204 wrote:
Besides the issue with the Kurds, Turkey is a bit invested in those remaining bearded guys that are getting clobbered by Syrians and Russia right now in what is left of uncontrolled territory.

Plus you have that domestic consumption issue for Erdogan in the eyes of his supporters.


Right, there are Erdogan's domestic issues, just as you have Putin regime domestic issue's to support the Assad regime.

The Kurds are indeed a problem in the eyes of Erdogan, he doesn't want a semi-autonomous Kurdish region in Syria, just as he doesn't want it in Iraq. But the Turkish government and the Assad regime aren't particularly close to say the least, so that goes deeper than that.

And yes, Assad is taking control of Syria again to repress his people, like the old days. Now, 700.00 people have fled the violence laid down by Russian and Syrian forces with God knows how many dead civilians.
Assad and his allies Russia and Iran are playing a very dirty game - read war crimes - of geopolitics, it has nothing to do with the Syrian people.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Turkey strikes dozens of Syrian targets, 3 tanks and 1 helicopter after Syrian shelling kills 5 soldiers

Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:30 pm

The problem with the Kurds wasn't actually the Kurds themselves but the fact that the US was openly backing the Kurds over Turkey.

Previously, the Kurds were just another weak separatist group that could be managed easily but then the US started backing the Kurds and giving them loads of heavy artillery and military equipment to fight for them in Syria. Turkey could clearly see that once the Syrian civil war was over, they would have a much more dangerous Kurdish threat on their border, which now has heavy military equipment courtesy of the US. For whatever reason, the US didn't have the foresight to see this. So while previously Kurdish separatism wasn't considered a threat, now it is because the Kurds have the heavy American military equipment they need to capture their own territory and create a separatist Kurdistan. So this has forced Turkey to be much more aggressive in containing the Kurds. The US supporting the Kurds was a stupid idea to begin with, because emboldening separatism over supporting your allies was always a bad idea.
 
tu204
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Re: Turkey strikes dozens of Syrian targets, 3 tanks and 1 helicopter after Syrian shelling kills 5 soldiers

Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:30 am

https://thedefensepost.com/2020/02/20/s ... els-idlib/

And in response Russian Su-24's from Hmeimim bombed some Turkish positions destroying some vehicles and a few Turkish troops on the ground.

Too bad it is going this way. I had much more hopes that the relationship between Syria, Russia and Turkey was looking good a few months back.

But Turkey keeps supporting the bad guys, Russia is overreacting and plus just now placed an unofficial embargo on Turkish produce, and the US still hasn't GTFO'ed from Syria fully...
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Turkey strikes dozens of Syrian targets, 3 tanks and 1 helicopter after Syrian shelling kills 5 soldiers

Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:39 am

tu204 wrote:
But Turkey keeps supporting the bad guys


Russia keeps supporting the bad guy.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!

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