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acavpics
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:53 pm

Antarius wrote:
spinotter wrote:
Antarius wrote:

It is also debunked as parts of the aircraft washed up in Africa. If it was landed and cut up, the parts wouldn't exist.


Excellent point. I did not give much credit to the idea of Diego Garcia - it was more to hear some details of the Diego Garcia conspiracy theory, especially the motivation. The Atlantic article (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/07/mh370-malaysia-airlines/590653/) was excellent. The author believes that the pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, engineered the whole thing, knew how to evade detection as much as possible, killed everyone else by depressurizing, and northwest of the tip of Sumatra turned southward to fly as far as possble toward the Antarctic before perhaps purposely ditching the 777, which apparently broke totally apart, with parts reaching Reunion etc. Do people agree that this is the most likely scenario?


I dont know about the part about flying purposely towards Antarctica; he could have been or just flying until the aircraft flamed out into the pacific. The timing of turning off the transponder, the maneuvers between airspace etc. are IMO, clear proof that this was not an accident. But what the end goal or destination (if any,) was is speculation.


I think the end goal was to make it missing without a trace for as long as possible. And as much as I hate to say it, he seems to have succeeded. Z. Shah must have gotten great "thrill" by embarrassing the Malaysian government with their inability to find a commercial jet in 2014.

Also, I think this incident follows the all too familiar concept of mass murderers desiring fame and notoriety. The captain probably figured that making the plane disappear would be far more "spectacular"(At least in his mind) than to simply nose it down and crash it right away.
 
VSMUT
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:18 am

Antarius wrote:
The timing of turning off the transponder, the maneuvers between airspace etc. are IMO, clear proof that this was not an accident.


Turning off track, initiating a descend and switching transponder mode to TCAS off is exactly what you would do in a depressurization. Clear proof that your theory isn't waterproof.
 
moa999
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:24 am

Agree the pilot theory is the most likely, but that's all it is.

And we may never know the truth.

Even if you found the wreck, you mightn't find the voice recorder with the beacons now out.
Even if you chanced on the voice recorder it may be non-recoverable after years at great depth.
Even if everything worked, a single pilot in a cockpit may not actually say anything after quickly incapacitating everyone else onboard.
 
Antarius
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:43 am

VSMUT wrote:
Antarius wrote:
The timing of turning off the transponder, the maneuvers between airspace etc. are IMO, clear proof that this was not an accident.


Turning off track, initiating a descend and switching transponder mode to TCAS off is exactly what you would do in a depressurization. Clear proof that your theory isn't waterproof.


False. The second after saying goodbye and switching airspace, there was depressurization that happened so quickly that within a second he turned off the transponder? By the time even the best pilot realized what was happening, it would be a few seconds, not less than one.

The timing renders your plausible deniability to be impossible.
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User avatar
zeke
Posts: 15103
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:08 am

Antarius wrote:
The timing of turning off the transponder, the maneuvers between airspace etc. are IMO, clear proof that this was not an accident. But what the end goal or destination (if any,) was is speculation.


There were no maneuvers, another myth by conspiracy theorists o try and justify a suicide theory.

ii) From the data it was determined that the ‘aircraft’ was
on heading mode that varied from 239o to 255o as it flew
to the south of Penang where it continued westerly to
Waypoint MEKAR where it finally disappeared
completely at 1822:12 UTC [0222:12 MYT], about 10
nautical miles north of MEKAR.
iii) Based on the Team’s review of the Military recorded
radar display and printout, the aircraft’s flight path could
not be determined, and there is no evidence of rapid
altitude and/or speed changes to indicate that MH370
was evading radar.

iv) Without further evidence, the reason for the transponder
information from the aircraft ceasing could not be
determined;

As for tuning off the transponder etc, there is no evidence that happened, there is actually evidence to the contrary.

from the report

"There is no indication of the SATCOM link being manually
Logged Off from the cockpit (via an MCDU). Such activity
would have been captured in the GES logs, but it was not."

All we know is it stopped transmitting. We also know that SATCOM lost the aircraft ident around the same time, the cause for such a problem in the report is a power interruption to AIMS, which will also take out a transponder and radios.

AIMS also is responsible for
• Primary display system (PDS)
• Central maintenance computing system (CMCS)
• Airplane condition monitoring system (ACMS)
• Flight data recorder system (FDRS)
• Data communication management system (DCMS) - including ACARS datalink
• Flight management computing system (FMCS)
• Thrust management computing system (TMCS)

The evidence is in the SATCOM re-login

a. The SATCOM link becomes available (for voice and data –
Class 3) once more and normal SATCOM operation resumes.
b. No Flight ID was sent to the GES during the Log-On. This
infers that the SDU was still not receiving the Flight ID from
AIMS.

c. The possible reasons for the link loss and the subsequent
LogOn that took place at 0019:00 have been investigated and are
detailed in Section 2.5.2. There are many quite complicated
scenarios that could have caused the 0019:00 Log-On with no
Flight ID. However, the most likely reason is a power interrupt
to the SATCOM avionics, of a duration less than 8 minutes.

d. The GES recorded an abnormal frequency offset for the
SATCOM Log-On Request and Acknowledge transmissions
(see Sections 1.9.5 para. 5) and 2.5.3). The abnormal BFOs
for the 0019 Log-On Request and Log-On Acknowledge are
more likely due to a combination of uncompensated vertical
velocity (descent) and OCXO warm up drift.
e) The IFE did not subsequently establish the two Data-3 X.25
connections over the SATCOM, which it normally does if it is
functional. It can be inferred that the IFE was either not
operating at this time (powered off, not being powered whilst
the SATCOM was being powered by the APU, failed, or still
resetting after a power cycle), or the SATCOM and/or the IFE
became inoperative before the IFE was able to establish the
Data-3 connection
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
Antarius
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:13 am

zeke wrote:
Antarius wrote:
The timing of turning off the transponder, the maneuvers between airspace etc. are IMO, clear proof that this was not an accident. But what the end goal or destination (if any,) was is speculation.


There were no maneuvers, another myth by conspiracy theorists o try and justify a suicide theory.


Oh since when did the likely reason become one peddled by conspiracy theories? Usually the alien or wormhole types are pushing such things.

Your post is pointing to a power interrupt. Which is exactly what i said happened. Albeit without the coincidence of timing.

That said, given your post history and disdain for a certain manufacturer, it's not surprising that the logical explanation is being disregarded likely in lieu of something with an agenda. What next ? mH 17 was mechanical failure?

And finally, quoting the Malaysian government report is not gaining any credibility. The whole thread was created because no one believes them.
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TheFlyingDisk
Posts: 2108
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:10 am

Antarius wrote:
And finally, quoting the Malaysian government report is not gaining any credibility. The whole thread was created because no one believes them.


Thing is, if the report lacks credibility, why didn't the NTSB or the AAIB or all the other investigative parties involved in the investigation say something, or write a dissenting report?
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zeke
Posts: 15103
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:43 am

Antarius wrote:

Oh since when did the likely reason become one peddled by conspiracy theories? Usually the alien or wormhole types are pushing such things.

Your post is pointing to a power interrupt. Which is exactly what i said happened. Albeit without the coincidence of timing.

That said, given your post history and disdain for a certain manufacturer, it's not surprising that the logical explanation is being disregarded likely in lieu of something with an agenda. What next ? mH 17 was mechanical failure?

And finally, quoting the Malaysian government report is not gaining any credibility. The whole thread was created because no one believes them.


Very droll, so its has to be pilot suicide because I fly an Airbus. I cannot even begin to think how you come up with such conclusions.

My post is not pointing to a power interrupt, that is established facts that have come from Inmarsat and Boeing and included in the released reports. If pilots turn off satcom, that event gets logged by Inmarsat.

No one I know that flies a 777 that understands the 777 systems and understands what it takes to interrupt power to the AIMS cabinets believes pilot suicide for a second, it is only conspiracy theorist that are sprouting that line because they don’t understand the technical details. There is nothing in any of the crew backgrounds that would indicate a suicide, the crew were healthy, none were drug takers, all physically fit. None displaying any behavior changes.

The suicide theory also does not explain why no one from the cabin did anything for hours, unlike germanwings which was all over in 10 minutes.

However there is evidence of a severe technical issue, one cannot just interrupt power to the two AIMS cabinets for 8 minutes, it is an essential system that should continue to run even off the essential power. Take the AIMS offline you are in a world of hurt with nothing in-front of you working except the standby instruments. Flying a large airliner off standby instruments is near impossible. No one ever practices flying a 777 without AIMS as the probability of that supposedly failing is thought to be impossible, however the evidence is that it did happen on this flight.

Dismiss the Malaysian report all you want, but much of what they have said was already said by Inmarsat, Australian ATSB, CSIRO, and Boeing.

It is easy to understand why people are so dismissive of the published reports, the reports contain so much technical detail that it is beyond their level of comprehension. This is like in the old days when the science said the earth was round, and the people that were scientifically illiterate continued to say the earth is flat. You portray me as some sort of medieval witch because I understand the technical details, there are many like me. In years to come as more is discovered, the majority will come to also believe the science, and there will always be people on the fringe that still believe the earth is flat.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
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lugie
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:32 am

Antarius wrote:
M564038 wrote:
There is no connection between those 2.

Antarius wrote:

What about the Germanwings pilot? His actions weren't politically or religiously motivated at all.

So no, that is not a true assertion.


I gave you an example of someone who crashed a plane for non-political or religious reasons before MH370.

So your statement is false. No matter whether they are connected or not.


First of all, Germanwings 9525 crashed quite exactly a year and two weeks after MH370's disappearance (March 24th 2015 vs March 8th 2014).

Second, the point posters had been making about the Malaysian pilot is that his suicide might have been motivated (among others) by political reasons such as dissatisfaction with certain political events at the time in Malaysia. All the while, he was an atheist and a moderate.
The Germanwings F/O's suicide however was exclusively motivated by his own personal mental health, that is, his depression and suicidal tendencies. Any political or religious motivations have been ruled out in the report.
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Antarius
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:42 pm

lugie wrote:
Antarius wrote:
M564038 wrote:
There is no connection between those 2.



I gave you an example of someone who crashed a plane for non-political or religious reasons before MH370.

So your statement is false. No matter whether they are connected or not.


First of all, Germanwings 9525 crashed quite exactly a year and two weeks after MH370's disappearance (March 24th 2015 vs March 8th 2014).

Second, the point posters had been making about the Malaysian pilot is that his suicide might have been motivated (among others) by political reasons such as dissatisfaction with certain political events at the time in Malaysia. All the while, he was an atheist and a moderate.
The Germanwings F/O's suicide however was exclusively motivated by his own personal mental health, that is, his depression and suicidal tendencies. Any political or religious motivations have been ruled out in the report.


Ah yes, got the timeline flipped.

My point was merely that there are cases of politically moderate and atheists performing terrorist acts. This is not a one off.
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Antarius
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:51 pm

TheFlyingDisk wrote:
Antarius wrote:
And finally, quoting the Malaysian government report is not gaining any credibility. The whole thread was created because no one believes them.


Thing is, if the report lacks credibility, why didn't the NTSB or the AAIB or all the other investigative parties involved in the investigation say something, or write a dissenting report?


The ATSB did publish s report. It, among other things, covered the similar flight plan found on the pilots simulator. The issue with the Malaysia report is that they have been reticient in releasing data, so while parts of it are known, they've withheld data from others for years.

That said, even the Malaysian report said that the flight plan deviation was likely caused by deliberate inputs. Occam's razor.
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Antarius
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:53 pm

zeke wrote:
It is easy to understand why people are so dismissive of the published reports, the reports contain so much technical detail that it is beyond their level of comprehension. This is like in the old days when the science said the earth was round, and the people that were scientifically illiterate continued to say the earth is flat. You portray me as some sort of medieval witch because I understand the technical details, there are many like me. In years to come as more is discovered, the majority will come to also believe the science, and there will always be people on the fringe that still believe the earth is flat.


You may fly or operate an object, I design things.

Save your "I understand technical details" for a non-engineer. :roll:
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VSMUT
Posts: 4457
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:55 am

Antarius wrote:
zeke wrote:
It is easy to understand why people are so dismissive of the published reports, the reports contain so much technical detail that it is beyond their level of comprehension. This is like in the old days when the science said the earth was round, and the people that were scientifically illiterate continued to say the earth is flat. You portray me as some sort of medieval witch because I understand the technical details, there are many like me. In years to come as more is discovered, the majority will come to also believe the science, and there will always be people on the fringe that still believe the earth is flat.


You may fly or operate an object, I design things.


That may be, but clearly not 777s.


Antarius wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Antarius wrote:
The timing of turning off the transponder, the maneuvers between airspace etc. are IMO, clear proof that this was not an accident.


Turning off track, initiating a descend and switching transponder mode to TCAS off is exactly what you would do in a depressurization. Clear proof that your theory isn't waterproof.


False. The second after saying goodbye and switching airspace, there was depressurization that happened so quickly that within a second he turned off the transponder? By the time even the best pilot realized what was happening, it would be a few seconds, not less than one.

The timing renders your plausible deniability to be impossible.


So your entire dismissal of that theory is based on the idea that an explosive decompression would only come when it is convenient for the pilots? Have you even considered that a decompression could have damaged the aircraft and equipment?

I'm not saying this is the reason, but your theory has massive holes in it that you refuse to acknowledge because of confirmation bias. You still haven't provided clear evidence that can't be attributed to other causes.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: 6 years since MH370: Time for Malaysia to finally admit the truth?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:29 pm

Saying "I don't know" is very hard for us humans to do but that's often times the most honest answer.

We can think of a million things that happened, there are a billion things that could have happened, and we lack the evidence to prove or disprove only a fraction of the possibilities

While I am leaning towards pilot suicide, I don't know what happened or pretend to know. People that are so sure of what happened are either fooling themselves or should bring their evidence to the investigators because you know something they don't.

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