The effect will probably be 10 years of low prices while major producers want their oil sold while it still have a value. European consumers will not see this while their government will raise taxes to kill oil off.

End of oil is a political decision from oil importing countries.

olle wrote:

End of oil is a political decision from oil importing countries.

Yes, to protect life on earth as we know it.

Dutchy wrote:

olle wrote:

End of oil is a political decision from oil importing countries.

Yes, to protect life on earth as we know it.

And I totally support this fact and opinion.

What is important for oil producers is that now they start to understand it. Oil will soon have the same status as coal. Who want that now?

Oil producers has 10 years to sell oil with profit. 5 years ago the calculation was to keep as much into the ground as possible because after 2040 the production was going down because of supplier shortage.

Now the production will go down after 2030 because of consumption.

Many producers now considers that better to sell more for less price now then less with even smaller price after 2030.

Will this delay the move to solar and wind? Perhaps but as I say the governments has the power to make energy have any cost for consumers they want and now we have a big need to fast switch to other sources. Trump, Putin nor the king of Saudi has the power to change this.

Change to wind and solar might be delayed in USA, Russia and ME but for the big export markets of oil Europe and China it is too late, and these markets are driving down the cost of solar and wind even more day by day.

Tugger wrote:

Aesma wrote:

The US/Trump complaining when they're responsible for this is quite funny.

"Responsible"? Ummm... fracking is likely a prime motivator but "the cause" is Saudi Arabia seeking a new balance and Russia getting into it with them.
Tugg

The US could have done things to reduce the speed at which it was ramping up production. Putting environmental rules so that fracking was less easy, not pushing for the construction of pipelines, not allowing exports, etc. Instead the GOP then Trump has done the opposite, letting production explode, and this has upset Saudi Arabia and Russia. Some kind of equilibrium, beneficial to all, with a 60$ price, was possible, but it wasn't to be.

The price of oil will be back above $60USD per bbl in short order.
All it takes is a Iranian Mullah with a 16ft ski boat, a 50cal and a RPG popping a few caps in the strait of Hormuz.

Iran can not operate on $20 oil. They are in serious need of cash.

Okie

olle wrote:

Will this delay the move to solar and wind? Perhaps but as I say the governments has the power to make energy have any cost for consumers they want and now we have a big need to fast switch to other sources. Trump, Putin nor the king of Saudi has the power to change this.

Change to wind and solar might be delayed in USA, Russia and ME but for the big export markets of oil Europe and China it is too late, and these markets are driving down the cost of solar and wind even more day by day.

You drink too much of that euro-whiner koolaid. The US is perennially among the top 2-3 (behind China) of both solar and wind installations. Cumulatively - the same. http://www.wikipedia.org

In fact solar is currently booming in the US... https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data I read somewhere else that the US is expected to surpass everybody in yearly totals in 2020 for either solar or wind as China winds down it's subsidies and the US doubles its solar capacity over the next 5 years. That 30% Trump solar tariff you perpetual haters and that German whiner claimed would "kill solar" did no such thing - in fact US solar panel production has since jumped as at least 6 foreign manufacturers have expanded or set up shop in the US and solar prices have declined. Just as Trump predicted. How about that Trump haters?

And you speak as though raising our energy costs has any bearing whatsoever on driving societal change. In the state pushing EVs the hardest, it costs more to fuel my electric car on electricity than drive an equivalent gas car - even at $3/gal. And its scheduled to continue to rise indefinitely. They have stolen the primary impetus to change people's habits - cost. Nobody really knows where all the money is going because electricity bought and sold for less than $.12/kWh should not cost $.32/kWh and more once it crosses a border. And now California politicians are saying we can't use natural gas anymore in favor of electricity. The New Cartel. Fortunately, home batteries can now pay for themselves and we can tell them to fo.

Aesma wrote:

Tugger wrote:

Aesma wrote:

The US/Trump complaining when they're responsible for this is quite funny.

"Responsible"? Ummm... fracking is likely a prime motivator but "the cause" is Saudi Arabia seeking a new balance and Russia getting into it with them.
Tugg

The US could have done things to reduce the speed at which it was ramping up production. Putting environmental rules so that fracking was less easy, not pushing for the construction of pipelines, not allowing exports, etc. Instead the GOP then Trump has done the opposite, letting production explode, and this has upset Saudi Arabia and Russia. Some kind of equilibrium, beneficial to all, with a 60$ price, was possible, but it wasn't to be.

But the real question here is why are YOU complaining?

US capitalism and technology is depriving Putin and the Saudis of easy wealth. Why does this offend you?

I can point to HUGE geopolitical benefits US fracking has provided to both US and you. Driving Putin ballistic is just one of them.

mham001 wrote:

olle wrote:

Will this delay the move to solar and wind? Perhaps but as I say the governments has the power to make energy have any cost for consumers they want and now we have a big need to fast switch to other sources. Trump, Putin nor the king of Saudi has the power to change this.

Change to wind and solar might be delayed in USA, Russia and ME but for the big export markets of oil Europe and China it is too late, and these markets are driving down the cost of solar and wind even more day by day.

You drink too much of that euro-whiner koolaid. The US is perennially among the top 2-3 (behind China) of both solar and wind installations. Cumulatively - the same. http://www.wikipedia.org

In fact solar is currently booming in the US... https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data I read somewhere else that the US is expected to surpass everybody in yearly totals in 2020 for either solar or wind as China winds down it's subsidies and the US doubles its solar capacity over the next 5 years. That 30% Trump solar tariff you perpetual haters and that German whiner claimed would "kill solar" did no such thing - in fact US solar panel production has since jumped as at least 6 foreign manufacturers have expanded or set up shop in the US and solar prices have declined. Just as Trump predicted. How about that Trump haters?

And you speak as though raising our energy costs has any bearing whatsoever on driving societal change. In the state pushing EVs the hardest, it costs more to fuel my electric car on electricity than drive an equivalent gas car - even at $3/gal. And its scheduled to continue to rise indefinitely. They have stolen the primary impetus to change people's habits - cost. Nobody really knows where all the money is going because electricity bought and sold for less than $.12/kWh should not cost $.32/kWh and more once it crosses a border. And now California politicians are saying we can't use natural gas anymore in favor of electricity. The New Cartel. Fortunately, home batteries can now pay for themselves and we can tell them to fo.

What you are missing is that the cost of wind and solar has become the most cost efficient alternative for new investment in energy thanks to 2 actors China and EU.

Without this effort the cost would not be so low and the investments against the will of USA government would not happen. The fact that the last few years USA start to invest against the will of the government show how successful the efforts has been. i remember that also A.net solar and wind was not supposed to ever be more cost efficient then coal and oil as energy provider. How things can change.

mham001 wrote:

Aesma wrote:

Tugger wrote:

"Responsible"? Ummm... fracking is likely a prime motivator but "the cause" is Saudi Arabia seeking a new balance and Russia getting into it with them.
Tugg

The US could have done things to reduce the speed at which it was ramping up production. Putting environmental rules so that fracking was less easy, not pushing for the construction of pipelines, not allowing exports, etc. Instead the GOP then Trump has done the opposite, letting production explode, and this has upset Saudi Arabia and Russia. Some kind of equilibrium, beneficial to all, with a 60$ price, was possible, but it wasn't to be.

But the real question here is why are YOU complaining?

US capitalism and technology is depriving Putin and the Saudis of easy wealth. Why does this offend you?

I can point to HUGE geopolitical benefits US fracking has provided to both US and you. Driving Putin ballistic is just one of them.

I preferred oil at 150$/barrel leading to its accelerated replacement.

Aesma wrote:

mham001 wrote:

Aesma wrote:

The US could have done things to reduce the speed at which it was ramping up production. Putting environmental rules so that fracking was less easy, not pushing for the construction of pipelines, not allowing exports, etc. Instead the GOP then Trump has done the opposite, letting production explode, and this has upset Saudi Arabia and Russia. Some kind of equilibrium, beneficial to all, with a 60$ price, was possible, but it wasn't to be.

But the real question here is why are YOU complaining?

US capitalism and technology is depriving Putin and the Saudis of easy wealth. Why does this offend you?

I can point to HUGE geopolitical benefits US fracking has provided to both US and you. Driving Putin ballistic is just one of them.

I preferred oil at 150$/barrel leading to its accelerated replacement.

This was the kiss of death for the oil industry. That both initiatedva full scale production of wind and solar pushing down prices and initiated the USA oil boom erasing USA as oil importer.

In Africa, Angola the corrupted government has let electrical grid be notorius unstable because some of them gain from gasdrven electrical generator sales . Now houshold install solar energy, making the need for purchase of electric power soon go away.

If oil consuming countries like EU, China, Afrca and parts of South America stop buying or dramatically decrease purchases of oil, production will soon need to adjust. First to go will probably be north sea, followed by Canada.

olle wrote:

First to go will probably be north sea, followed by Canada.

First to go is any deep sea drilling and anything in the arctic region. Those two places are so hard to reach and build the infrastructure. But also fracking is very expensive. Tarssand might also be very expensive to exploit. Most big oil wells in the North Sea are almost depleted anyway.

olle wrote:

Will this delay the move to solar and wind? Perhaps but as I say the governments has the power to make energy have any cost for consumers they want and now we have a big need to fast switch to other sources. Trump, Putin nor the king of Saudi has the power to change this.

Governments or the people who elect them?
Unless the alternative allows the everyday Joe in the street to live a normal live it will not happen, the effort to give big business tax breaks to use alternative energy means has for the most part not been as successful as they would like. Yes governments can use higher taxes to drive behaviour but it only goes so far before the alternate political party starts offering alternatives, then boom, you have a government change.

par13del wrote:

olle wrote:

Will this delay the move to solar and wind? Perhaps but as I say the governments has the power to make energy have any cost for consumers they want and now we have a big need to fast switch to other sources. Trump, Putin nor the king of Saudi has the power to change this.

Governments or the people who elect them?
Unless the alternative allows the everyday Joe in the street to live a normal live it will not happen, the effort to give big business tax breaks to use alternative energy means has for the most part not been as successful as they would like. Yes governments can use higher taxes to drive behaviour but it only goes so far before the alternate political party starts offering alternatives, then boom, you have a government change.

Personally I consider solar investment as my pension fund. I invest today, and in 10 years time my electrical bill and my diesel bill for my 2 cars is gone.

When it is time for pension that is equal quit a raise of my pension that I can control myself.

The low oilprice might jeopardize USA status as net exporter of oil;

Todays oil price could make the oilproduction going down dramatically in the end of the year.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-diplomac ... ce-1495916

Oil has collapsed to below $8.

The last time oil was this cheap, I wasn't even born yet.

$5.18

Whoa it just broke 5

There is no where to store it anymore. And no demand to use what s being produced, even if production is reduced.

Tugg

Interestingly I just reviewed a prospectus from a small energy company in West Texas looking for investment from accredited investors for a private placement deal. They weren't making money on this project below $35/bbl. A lot of these small oil companies will go bankrupt and have their assets bought up.

If you play the spot market there could be an interesting opportunity if you're willing to risk.

Lowest tick I saw was $4.47.

oilprice.com site which I usually check daily crashed, likely traffic overload, that worried me maybe something big happened. It did. WTI down to $10, but likely in part because there is no place to store oil. Brent is at $33, but usually is one of the higher. I suspect this is all consistent with an all over price of low 20s. Not good for the industry, and not all that good for most consumers, we are not using much.

This is just the May contract that expires tomorrow. I think Wednesday, we should see the price back in the upper $10s, lower $20s since that's the June contract. Still, it may be possible that the contract price also collapses.

$2.69 and dropping.

Pellegrine wrote:

Interestingly I just reviewed a prospectus from a small energy company in West Texas looking for investment from accredited investors for a private placement deal. They weren't making money on this project below $35/bbl. A lot of these small oil companies will go bankrupt and have their assets bought up.

That is going to be the biggest impact and effect from this price collapse. All those smaller companies that all competed against each other and the big guys and absolutely had to sell to keep moving forward, they will be gone and the majority of anything useful will be bought up by the aforementioned "big guys". We will then reenter an oligopoly situation where ten or so companies control things and each paces the other to ensure price stability (and in fact price increases).

Another problem for oil is plastic, the other huge sector that consumes significant hydrocarbon production. Severely reduced consumer demand in conjunction with attempts to reduce its use overall, that will definitely add to the problem.

Don't know where that means prices will go since there is now an established sector for "alternatives" which will thrive if prices rise. And the "oil powers" will of course want to keep that in check.

Tugg

Saudi has 40 million barrels in 20 VLCCs en route to the Gulf of Mexico due in port throughout May. I saw a tick go to $0.99. It will be interesting to see June and July contracts.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/flood-of-s ... 1587119400

einsteinboricua wrote:

This is just the May contract that expires tomorrow. I think Wednesday, we should see the price back in the upper $10s, lower $20s since that's the June contract. Still, it may be possible that the contract price also collapses.

Exactly, buy at five sell at:
$6 twenty percent on your money.
$7 forty percent on your money.
$10 double your money.
Pretty good for just a few days investment, you just have to tell me where else you can get those kind of returns.

While there will be some smaller oil companies that are severely leveraged in trouble. The big issue here is going to be those that rely on the oil income whether OPEC, Countries or States that rely on that income stream.
Here in Oklahoma it is gross production tax value. So say at $6 you are receiving only 10% of your previous revenue at $60 and using less that is going to be a massive 90% cut going into the coffers of the state budget. In the budget here the oil production carries about 20% of load so that means about an 18% across the board cuts not counting reduced production add on top of that the lost direct income taxes from energy employment which turns tax asset into a liability.

This should destroy Venezuela, hammer Russia and Iran and cause grief to even the rest of the OPEC members if the prices stay below $40 or so for very long. I expect production cuts from the Arab states post haste.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

oilprice.com site which I usually check daily crashed, likely traffic overload, that worried me maybe something big happened.

Threw everybody off line.
However, we still have the fastest communication skill on earth, Telegraph, Telephone, and Tell an Oilly.


Okie

I actually saw a tick right at $0.00, it may go negative.

Pellegrine wrote:

I actually saw a tick right at $0.00, it may go negative.

Apparently there was a Canadian contract a negative 15 cents.

DAYUM! $0.66 as of the time of writing and it's gone as low as $0.19.

Lots of issues with storage and usage of oil going forward.

Planes aren't flying and cars aren't driving.

I probably already saved the planet 2 gallons of gas today.

CNBC reports that the minimum today was 1 cent.

Around -$10.25 for WTI May contract (-155%) right now.

-$11.42 (-162.5%)

Conservatives could make money destroying all that private land that they love if they want to buy into it.

einsteinboricua wrote:

-$11.42 (-162.5%)

Does anyone remember the Crypto Currency that Maduro made that was based on Oil so it would never lose value.


Okie

It went as low as -$40. It's come back up to -$28 (an amazing 253% decline).

What happened to OPEC++ master deal/plan?

They wanted to drive the price of oil down. They succeeded beyond their wildest dreams. LOL

dtw2hyd wrote:

What happened to OPEC++ master deal/plan?

Still on the table but...
- Oil from faraway places takes time to reach its destination. The VLCCs about the flood the US market (see Pellegrine's post) set sail before the agreement to cut production was reached.
- Texas decided to rely on voluntary cutbacks, the very thing that has failed OPEC for years
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/15 ... ommission/

Aesma wrote:

Tugger wrote:

Aesma wrote:

The US/Trump complaining when they're responsible for this is quite funny.

"Responsible"? Ummm... fracking is likely a prime motivator but "the cause" is Saudi Arabia seeking a new balance and Russia getting into it with them.
Tugg

The US could have done things to reduce the speed at which it was ramping up production. Putting environmental rules so that fracking was less easy, not pushing for the construction of pipelines, not allowing exports, etc. Instead the GOP then Trump has done the opposite, letting production explode, and this has upset Saudi Arabia and Russia. Some kind of equilibrium, beneficial to all, with a 60$ price, was possible, but it wasn't to be.

So the U.S. should have forgone a trillion dollar economic windfall over the past 10-12 years because we should have foreseen that Saudi Arabia and Russia would get in a price war amidst a demand crash caused by a global viral pandemic? I don’t find that compelling.

It is telling when you assign blame specifically to GOP and Trump. Democrats like to talk tough on fracking and oil & gas but it’s just talk. The Obama administration started the wave of export licenses for both crude and LNG. Their efforts to stop or even slow fracking were token gestures. Domestic energy security has bipartisan consensus in the U.S. once the TV cameras are turned off.

dtw2hyd wrote:

What happened to OPEC++ master deal/plan?

Three things:
1. It's not as far reaching as was anticipated.
2. Demand is seen collapsing even with the deal in place (at least in the short term, which is why the May contracts have tanked).
3. The cuts begin next month so there's still oversupply out for two more weeks.

dtw2hyd wrote:

What happened to OPEC++ master deal/plan?

The problem is that even with the cut in production, the world will still be producing more oil than it needs for quite a while. And with so much now in storage and storage nearing capacity, even the agreed to cut of 9.7M BBL/day in May and June is not enough (I do expect the cuts to be extended but we'll have to see how long the cooperating partners can manage.

On an annual average basis, the Paris-based IEA now expects global oil demand to be 9.3 million barrels a day lower this year than it was last year. That’s equivalent to losing the entire consumption of India and the whole of Africa. OPEC is a little less gloomy, seeing demand falling year-on-year by 6.85 million barrels a day, while the EIA looks positively optimistic, with its drop of 5.25 million barrels.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... oil-demand

Tugg

Will countries like Canada, UK and Norway produce oil in 5 years from now?

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/45

Well what a crazy time to live.

WTI is -37 USD per barrel. What is the impact on the air transportation?
There's a big spread between jet kerosene and crude oil now. Can airlines stock up the crude and ask for processing later?

Well I am sure Delta is rubbing their hands with their refinery being able to buy up the cheap oil and stockpile it while the fleet is barely flying.

Keep in mind this is based on specific futures contract expiring this week - the contracts are due and people don't want to take physical possessions.

The price of the oil futures contract further down the road still continues to trade above $20 per barrel.

Yes its a weird situation, but ultimately what it means is that the producers will pay traders to take the oil off their hands.

There's no place on earth to store the oil. The geopolitical reasons (I strongly suspect) are Saudi Arabia and Russia trying to drive US producers bankrupt, so they are pumping oil even during a demand shock, creating a massive glut.

But now we have supertankers sitting offshore, filled with oil. Storage depots are filled. Airlines can't put the oil they buy anywhere. As a matter of fact, this might hurt the airlines - many airlines hold positions in oil as a hedge for high oil prices. Now? Oil prices are through the floor and there's no demand.

Keep in mind the negative WTI prices are for contracts that expire tomorrow. For contracts of any longer duration, prices are in the more normal - albeit still low -$20 range. The only people who would hold a futures contract that expires tomorrow are the people who physically want the oil. And prices are going negative because nobody is demanding the oil and storage facilities are *already* full. So today’s sort of flash crash were a
limited number of sellers - trading volume was low today - realizing that the game of musical chairs for the month of May was coming to an end and they would be stuck with physical inventory with real holding costs. So, it was rational for them to pay someone to take it. This is not really indicative of anything long-term or a likely opportunity for airlines.

The OPEC should invest all of their money in mass desalination plants, water is the oil of the future IMO.

What was the closing price?

Here are a few idea's:

-why don't they use aircraft as tanks to store oil?
Perhaps start with aircraft in scrapyards?
There must be thousands of stored aircraft across the deserts, including military aircraft.
It's free oil.

-Why not pump the oil into oil wells? Ok, it will mix the oil varieties, but oil is oil.