olle
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Oil price crash

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:46 am

The effect will probably be 10 years of low prices while major producers want their oil sold while it still have a value. European consumers will not see this while their government will raise taxes to kill oil off.

End of oil is a political decision from oil importing countries.
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 11135
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Oil price crash

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:56 am

olle wrote:
End of oil is a political decision from oil importing countries.


Yes, to protect life on earth as we know it.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Oil price crash

Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:34 pm

Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:
End of oil is a political decision from oil importing countries.


Yes, to protect life on earth as we know it.


And I totally support this fact and opinion.

What is important for oil producers is that now they start to understand it. Oil will soon have the same status as coal. Who want that now?

Oil producers has 10 years to sell oil with profit. 5 years ago the calculation was to keep as much into the ground as possible because after 2040 the production was going down because of supplier shortage.

Now the production will go down after 2030 because of consumption.

Many producers now considers that better to sell more for less price now then less with even smaller price after 2030.

Will this delay the move to solar and wind? Perhaps but as I say the governments has the power to make energy have any cost for consumers they want and now we have a big need to fast switch to other sources. Trump, Putin nor the king of Saudi has the power to change this.

Change to wind and solar might be delayed in USA, Russia and ME but for the big export markets of oil Europe and China it is too late, and these markets are driving down the cost of solar and wind even more day by day.
 
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Aesma
Posts: 12564
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Re: Oil price crash

Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:50 pm

Tugger wrote:
Aesma wrote:
The US/Trump complaining when they're responsible for this is quite funny.

"Responsible"? Ummm... fracking is likely a prime motivator but "the cause" is Saudi Arabia seeking a new balance and Russia getting into it with them.
Tugg


The US could have done things to reduce the speed at which it was ramping up production. Putting environmental rules so that fracking was less easy, not pushing for the construction of pipelines, not allowing exports, etc. Instead the GOP then Trump has done the opposite, letting production explode, and this has upset Saudi Arabia and Russia. Some kind of equilibrium, beneficial to all, with a 60$ price, was possible, but it wasn't to be.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Okie
Posts: 4080
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2003 11:30 am

Re: Oil price crash

Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:56 pm

The price of oil will be back above $60USD per bbl in short order.
All it takes is a Iranian Mullah with a 16ft ski boat, a 50cal and a RPG popping a few caps in the strait of Hormuz.

Iran can not operate on $20 oil. They are in serious need of cash.

Okie
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Oil price crash

Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:29 pm

olle wrote:
Will this delay the move to solar and wind? Perhaps but as I say the governments has the power to make energy have any cost for consumers they want and now we have a big need to fast switch to other sources. Trump, Putin nor the king of Saudi has the power to change this.

Change to wind and solar might be delayed in USA, Russia and ME but for the big export markets of oil Europe and China it is too late, and these markets are driving down the cost of solar and wind even more day by day.


You drink too much of that euro-whiner koolaid. The US is perennially among the top 2-3 (behind China) of both solar and wind installations. Cumulatively - the same. http://www.wikipedia.org

In fact solar is currently booming in the US... https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data I read somewhere else that the US is expected to surpass everybody in yearly totals in 2020 for either solar or wind as China winds down it's subsidies and the US doubles its solar capacity over the next 5 years. That 30% Trump solar tariff you perpetual haters and that German whiner claimed would "kill solar" did no such thing - in fact US solar panel production has since jumped as at least 6 foreign manufacturers have expanded or set up shop in the US and solar prices have declined. Just as Trump predicted. How about that Trump haters?

And you speak as though raising our energy costs has any bearing whatsoever on driving societal change. In the state pushing EVs the hardest, it costs more to fuel my electric car on electricity than drive an equivalent gas car - even at $3/gal. And its scheduled to continue to rise indefinitely. They have stolen the primary impetus to change people's habits - cost. Nobody really knows where all the money is going because electricity bought and sold for less than $.12/kWh should not cost $.32/kWh and more once it crosses a border. And now California politicians are saying we can't use natural gas anymore in favor of electricity. The New Cartel. Fortunately, home batteries can now pay for themselves and we can tell them to fo.
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Oil price crash

Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:42 pm

Aesma wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Aesma wrote:
The US/Trump complaining when they're responsible for this is quite funny.

"Responsible"? Ummm... fracking is likely a prime motivator but "the cause" is Saudi Arabia seeking a new balance and Russia getting into it with them.
Tugg


The US could have done things to reduce the speed at which it was ramping up production. Putting environmental rules so that fracking was less easy, not pushing for the construction of pipelines, not allowing exports, etc. Instead the GOP then Trump has done the opposite, letting production explode, and this has upset Saudi Arabia and Russia. Some kind of equilibrium, beneficial to all, with a 60$ price, was possible, but it wasn't to be.


But the real question here is why are YOU complaining?

US capitalism and technology is depriving Putin and the Saudis of easy wealth. Why does this offend you?

I can point to HUGE geopolitical benefits US fracking has provided to both US and you. Driving Putin ballistic is just one of them.
 
olle
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Oil price crash

Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:37 pm

mham001 wrote:
olle wrote:
Will this delay the move to solar and wind? Perhaps but as I say the governments has the power to make energy have any cost for consumers they want and now we have a big need to fast switch to other sources. Trump, Putin nor the king of Saudi has the power to change this.

Change to wind and solar might be delayed in USA, Russia and ME but for the big export markets of oil Europe and China it is too late, and these markets are driving down the cost of solar and wind even more day by day.


You drink too much of that euro-whiner koolaid. The US is perennially among the top 2-3 (behind China) of both solar and wind installations. Cumulatively - the same. http://www.wikipedia.org

In fact solar is currently booming in the US... https://www.seia.org/solar-industry-research-data I read somewhere else that the US is expected to surpass everybody in yearly totals in 2020 for either solar or wind as China winds down it's subsidies and the US doubles its solar capacity over the next 5 years. That 30% Trump solar tariff you perpetual haters and that German whiner claimed would "kill solar" did no such thing - in fact US solar panel production has since jumped as at least 6 foreign manufacturers have expanded or set up shop in the US and solar prices have declined. Just as Trump predicted. How about that Trump haters?

And you speak as though raising our energy costs has any bearing whatsoever on driving societal change. In the state pushing EVs the hardest, it costs more to fuel my electric car on electricity than drive an equivalent gas car - even at $3/gal. And its scheduled to continue to rise indefinitely. They have stolen the primary impetus to change people's habits - cost. Nobody really knows where all the money is going because electricity bought and sold for less than $.12/kWh should not cost $.32/kWh and more once it crosses a border. And now California politicians are saying we can't use natural gas anymore in favor of electricity. The New Cartel. Fortunately, home batteries can now pay for themselves and we can tell them to fo.


What you are missing is that the cost of wind and solar has become the most cost efficient alternative for new investment in energy thanks to 2 actors China and EU.

Without this effort the cost would not be so low and the investments against the will of USA government would not happen. The fact that the last few years USA start to invest against the will of the government show how successful the efforts has been. i remember that also A.net solar and wind was not supposed to ever be more cost efficient then coal and oil as energy provider. How things can change.
 
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Aesma
Posts: 12564
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Oil price crash

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:05 am

mham001 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Tugger wrote:
"Responsible"? Ummm... fracking is likely a prime motivator but "the cause" is Saudi Arabia seeking a new balance and Russia getting into it with them.
Tugg


The US could have done things to reduce the speed at which it was ramping up production. Putting environmental rules so that fracking was less easy, not pushing for the construction of pipelines, not allowing exports, etc. Instead the GOP then Trump has done the opposite, letting production explode, and this has upset Saudi Arabia and Russia. Some kind of equilibrium, beneficial to all, with a 60$ price, was possible, but it wasn't to be.


But the real question here is why are YOU complaining?

US capitalism and technology is depriving Putin and the Saudis of easy wealth. Why does this offend you?

I can point to HUGE geopolitical benefits US fracking has provided to both US and you. Driving Putin ballistic is just one of them.


I preferred oil at 150$/barrel leading to its accelerated replacement.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
olle
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Oil price crash

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:40 am

Aesma wrote:
mham001 wrote:
Aesma wrote:

The US could have done things to reduce the speed at which it was ramping up production. Putting environmental rules so that fracking was less easy, not pushing for the construction of pipelines, not allowing exports, etc. Instead the GOP then Trump has done the opposite, letting production explode, and this has upset Saudi Arabia and Russia. Some kind of equilibrium, beneficial to all, with a 60$ price, was possible, but it wasn't to be.


But the real question here is why are YOU complaining?

US capitalism and technology is depriving Putin and the Saudis of easy wealth. Why does this offend you?

I can point to HUGE geopolitical benefits US fracking has provided to both US and you. Driving Putin ballistic is just one of them.


I preferred oil at 150$/barrel leading to its accelerated replacement.


This was the kiss of death for the oil industry. That both initiatedva full scale production of wind and solar pushing down prices and initiated the USA oil boom erasing USA as oil importer.

In Africa, Angola the corrupted government has let electrical grid be notorius unstable because some of them gain from gasdrven electrical generator sales . Now houshold install solar energy, making the need for purchase of electric power soon go away.

If oil consuming countries like EU, China, Afrca and parts of South America stop buying or dramatically decrease purchases of oil, production will soon need to adjust. First to go will probably be north sea, followed by Canada.
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 11135
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:40 pm

olle wrote:
First to go will probably be north sea, followed by Canada.


First to go is any deep sea drilling and anything in the arctic region. Those two places are so hard to reach and build the infrastructure. But also fracking is very expensive. Tarssand might also be very expensive to exploit. Most big oil wells in the North Sea are almost depleted anyway.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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par13del
Posts: 9971
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 9:14 pm

Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:40 pm

olle wrote:
Will this delay the move to solar and wind? Perhaps but as I say the governments has the power to make energy have any cost for consumers they want and now we have a big need to fast switch to other sources. Trump, Putin nor the king of Saudi has the power to change this.

Governments or the people who elect them?
Unless the alternative allows the everyday Joe in the street to live a normal live it will not happen, the effort to give big business tax breaks to use alternative energy means has for the most part not been as successful as they would like. Yes governments can use higher taxes to drive behaviour but it only goes so far before the alternate political party starts offering alternatives, then boom, you have a government change.
 
olle
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Oil price crash

Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:46 am

par13del wrote:
olle wrote:
Will this delay the move to solar and wind? Perhaps but as I say the governments has the power to make energy have any cost for consumers they want and now we have a big need to fast switch to other sources. Trump, Putin nor the king of Saudi has the power to change this.

Governments or the people who elect them?
Unless the alternative allows the everyday Joe in the street to live a normal live it will not happen, the effort to give big business tax breaks to use alternative energy means has for the most part not been as successful as they would like. Yes governments can use higher taxes to drive behaviour but it only goes so far before the alternate political party starts offering alternatives, then boom, you have a government change.


Personally I consider solar investment as my pension fund. I invest today, and in 10 years time my electrical bill and my diesel bill for my 2 cars is gone.

When it is time for pension that is equal quit a raise of my pension that I can control myself.
 
olle
Posts: 1697
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Oil price crash

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:20 am

The low oilprice might jeopardize USA status as net exporter of oil;

Todays oil price could make the oilproduction going down dramatically in the end of the year.

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-diplomac ... ce-1495916

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