Crude oil prices are crashing on the open market.
I'm seeing -10%, Reuters talking about -20%.


Oil plunges over 20% after Saudi Arabia slashes prices on OPEC deal collapse

(Reuters) - Oil futures suffered their biggest daily loss since 1991 on Sunday after Saudi Arabia slashed its official selling price (OSP) and announced plans to raise crude production significantly, signaling the start of a price war.

Those moves came after Russia on Friday balked at OPEC’s proposed steep production cuts to stabilize prices hit by economic fallout from the coronavirus.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-glob ... SKBN20V131

Another good reason to try to be as disconnected to fossil fuels or as energy independent as possible.

One day we won't have to pay any more lip service to most of these Middle Eastern nations.

I read an article that Russia is actually the culprit, and wants to hurt the US through hurting shale oil.

Curently WTI trading at below 33 USD / barrel down from 48 USD last Wednesday: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/f ... electronic

In this environment, Russia is doing the US a favor with cheap oil, at least on the consumer side.
However, with the Covid19 fears, the economy is slowing down anyway.

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Curently WTI trading at below 33 USD / barrel down from 48 USD last Wednesday: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/f ... electronic

In this environment, Russia is doing the US a favor with cheap oil, at least on the consumer side.
However, with the Covid19 fears, the economy is slowing down anyway.

We are a net exporter now, so it does slightly more harm than good. That said, it hurts Russia more because their federal budget depends on oil exports.

LabQuest wrote:

Another good reason to try to be as disconnected to fossil fuels or as energy independent as possible.

One day we won't have to pay any more lip service to most of these Middle Eastern nations.

GCC countries are desperately laying groundwork for diversification now because the oil parade is over in a couple decades for them. The problem is their elite classes are raising kids not at all used to hard work so it’s a very difficult transition to make culturally. On top of the existing wealth gap this makes for a lot of instability to come over there.

Aesma wrote:

I read an article that Russia is actually the culprit, and wants to hurt the US through hurting shale oil.

The shale oil boom is largely over because the infrastructure is in place and the prices are low. The advantage the US and Canada now have is we know its there and ready to ramp up whenever we need it. That's the key. The day of having to kowtow to OPEC are over.

The ones with the real issue are nations like Germany and China who still rely on these shady nations for much their life blood.

Well I was following with one ear what people in the oil industry were saying for the last 6 months and none of them said they would be fine with 30$ oil, except for Saudi Arabia !

Hope for a soft landing for Mideast oil states as oil declines. Serious instability is dangerous - to us as well as them.

Jouhou wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Curently WTI trading at below 33 USD / barrel down from 48 USD last Wednesday: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/f ... electronic

In this environment, Russia is doing the US a favor with cheap oil, at least on the consumer side.
However, with the Covid19 fears, the economy is slowing down anyway.

We are a net exporter now, so it does slightly more harm than good. That said, it hurts Russia more because their federal budget depends on oil exports.

How dependent the US economy is to oil exports? I doubt America would be hard pressed if the oil prices are low, compared to other more oil dependent countries.

This however may set back the electrification movement as people cling on to their gas guzzlers given the cheap oil.

Well Trump wanted oil, gas and other products to help with the trade balance issue, so there is that. But otherwise not very dependent, however I don't see how many shale oil companies will not go bankrupt very quickly if this lasts.

Aesma wrote:

Well Trump wanted oil, gas and other products to help with the trade balance issue, so there is that. But otherwise not very dependent, however I don't see how many shale oil companies will not go bankrupt very quickly if this lasts.

Right, a lot of them will go under with sustained prices under $35 a barrel.

It was nice paying $2.80 at the pump the other day for super in Denver.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by as much as $11.28, or 27.4%, to $30 a barrel. That was also the biggest percentage drop since the first Gulf War in January 1991 and the lowest since Feb. 22, 2016. It was trading at $32.61.

https://www.investing.com/news/commodit ... es-2104262

The USD is also plunging, as are Asian markets.
The Nikkei225 is down 6%

Nikkei 225 (N225)
Real-time derived

19,472.50 -1277.25 -6.16%

https://www.investing.com/indices/japan-ni225

We might be looking at a "Black Monday" crash.

Oil prices plunged 30% in early trading after OPEC’s failure to strike a deal with its allies regarding production cuts caused Saudi Arabia to slash its prices as it reportedly gets set to ramp up production, leading to fears of an all-out price war.

International benchmark Brent crude futures plummeted 30% to $31.02 per barrel, its lowest level since Feb. 2016. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 27% to $30 per barrel, also its lowest level since Feb. 2016. WTI is on pace for its worst day since January 1991 during the Gulf War, and its second worst day on record.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/oil-plu ... fears.html

LabQuest wrote:

Aesma wrote:

I read an article that Russia is actually the culprit, and wants to hurt the US through hurting shale oil.

The shale oil boom is largely over because the infrastructure is in place and the prices are low. The advantage the US and Canada now have is we know its there and ready to ramp up whenever we need it. That's the key. The day of having to kowtow to OPEC are over.

What do you mean by "infrastructure is in place"? Fracking fields last about 5 minutes compared to conventional fields and then you are back to drilling...

The ones with the real issue are nations like Germany and China who still rely on these shady nations for much their life blood.

that is what you can do with commodity items..... buy cheap.

best regards
Thomas

Countries like Norway will be hit and will be thrown faster out of oilbusiness...

tommy1808 wrote:

LabQuest wrote:

Aesma wrote:

I read an article that Russia is actually the culprit, and wants to hurt the US through hurting shale oil.

The shale oil boom is largely over because the infrastructure is in place and the prices are low. The advantage the US and Canada now have is we know its there and ready to ramp up whenever we need it. That's the key. The day of having to kowtow to OPEC are over.

What do you mean by "infrastructure is in place"? Fracking fields last about 5 minutes compared to conventional fields and then you are back to drilling...

The ones with the real issue are nations like Germany and China who still rely on these shady nations for much their life blood.

that is what you can do with commodity items..... buy cheap.

best regards
Thomas

There's a ton of drilled but not completed wells I believe. This has been going on for a while.

Jouhou wrote:

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Curently WTI trading at below 33 USD / barrel down from 48 USD last Wednesday: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/f ... electronic

In this environment, Russia is doing the US a favor with cheap oil, at least on the consumer side.
However, with the Covid19 fears, the economy is slowing down anyway.

We are a net exporter now, so it does slightly more harm than good. That said, it hurts Russia more because their federal budget depends on oil exports.

Yes and no, because Russia is so dependent on their oil and gas exports they need to keep pumping, so that's why they cannot restrict themselves. Russia is going through hard times already and Putin's popularity is declining. So his unwillingness to make a deal is self-serving.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

Hope for a soft landing for Mideast oil states as oil declines. Serious instability is dangerous - to us as well as them.

Yes, but the last drop of oil will be pumped out of the ground in the Middle East. The cost of it is around 5USD per barrel, large portions of the world need a much higher price to be profitable. More in the region of 30 to 50USD.

”For U.S. shale, a disaster lies ahead. The industry has been largely unprofitable to date, but had received several rounds of huge injections of capital in the last decade, most recently following the 2016 downturn. But by last year, investors had begun to sour on unprofitable shale drilling. Energy stocks collapsed and access to capital became increasingly scarce. That was all true before the coronavirus and before the failed OPEC+ meeting. Now, U.S. shale will likely find itself in a state of true crisis.

Unlike a few years ago, recapitalization in any meaningful way is off the table. Capital markets have turned off the spigot. Also, the twice-a-year credit redetermination period is getting underway, and the most recent slide in prices will likely mean an immediate cut to credit lines from lenders. Worse, the wave of debt taken out during the 2014-2016 downturn is about to come due. North American oil and gas companies have more than $200 billion in debt maturing over the next four years, with $40 billion due this year“ https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... lapse.html

Norwegian markets and Krona falls heavily.

While I like that filled up my car yesterday in New Jersey for $2.26/US gallon, I realize that no matter how low it goes, it will not be good in the long run.

olle wrote:

Countries like Norway will be hit and will be thrown faster out of oilbusiness...

Don't worry. We have been out on a cold winters night before

olle wrote:

Countries like Norway will be hit and will be thrown faster out of oilbusiness...

I think Norway's Oil Fund was created with this kind of situation in mind. Norway will be just fine.

Redd wrote:

olle wrote:

Countries like Norway will be hit and will be thrown faster out of oilbusiness...

I think Norway's Oil Fund was created with this kind of situation in mind. Norway will be just fine.

Indeed

Derico wrote:

”For U.S. shale, a disaster lies ahead. The industry has been largely unprofitable to date, but had received several rounds of huge injections of capital in the last decade, most recently following the 2016 downturn. But by last year, investors had begun to sour on unprofitable shale drilling. Energy stocks collapsed and access to capital became increasingly scarce. That was all true before the coronavirus and before the failed OPEC+ meeting. Now, U.S. shale will likely find itself in a state of true crisis.

Unlike a few years ago, recapitalization in any meaningful way is off the table. Capital markets have turned off the spigot. Also, the twice-a-year credit redetermination period is getting underway, and the most recent slide in prices will likely mean an immediate cut to credit lines from lenders. Worse, the wave of debt taken out during the 2014-2016 downturn is about to come due. North American oil and gas companies have more than $200 billion in debt maturing over the next four years, with $40 billion due this year“ https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... lapse.html

Well maybe now might be a good time for them to stop sinking billions into funding anti-science climate change denial propaganda.

Better yet, abandon the wells and invest in renewables, it will pay off!

Maybe this whole situation is going to end up having some unexpected positive consequences...

lugie wrote:

Derico wrote:

”For U.S. shale, a disaster lies ahead. The industry has been largely unprofitable to date, but had received several rounds of huge injections of capital in the last decade, most recently following the 2016 downturn. But by last year, investors had begun to sour on unprofitable shale drilling. Energy stocks collapsed and access to capital became increasingly scarce. That was all true before the coronavirus and before the failed OPEC+ meeting. Now, U.S. shale will likely find itself in a state of true crisis.

Unlike a few years ago, recapitalization in any meaningful way is off the table. Capital markets have turned off the spigot. Also, the twice-a-year credit redetermination period is getting underway, and the most recent slide in prices will likely mean an immediate cut to credit lines from lenders. Worse, the wave of debt taken out during the 2014-2016 downturn is about to come due. North American oil and gas companies have more than $200 billion in debt maturing over the next four years, with $40 billion due this year“ https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... lapse.html

Well maybe now might be a good time for them to stop sinking billions into funding anti-science climate change denial propaganda.

Better yet, abandon the wells and invest in renewables, it will pay off!

Maybe this whole situation is going to end up having some unexpected positive consequences...

With a president that thinks solar has a 36 year payback period and the cell destroy themselves after only 10*?

Best regards
Thomas

* unless mounted on the border wall, in that case they pay for themselves and the wall.

Redd wrote:

olle wrote:

Countries like Norway will be hit and will be thrown faster out of oilbusiness...

I think Norway's Oil Fund was created with this kind of situation in mind. Norway will be just fine.

Exactly, they have quite a reserve: 1.000bn USD for 5,3million people.

Stock market opening with huge gaps, oil stocks going vertically down...

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... egins.html

This blog has some of its own writers as well as reports from other media. I have found it useful. (but I really miss The Oil Drum)

This is a copy of something I posted on the civil-corona virus thread. I will add that The Oil Drum was characterized by high level knowledgeable people with good connections to the oil industry. OilPrice is mostly reporter level stuff, sometimes a little eccentric, but still reliable, and I think about as good as you find online. Let me humorously report that often there is an article saying oil prices are going up, but also one saying oil prices are going down. But they document their sources, reader can assess.

tommy1808 wrote:

LabQuest wrote:

Aesma wrote:

I read an article that Russia is actually the culprit, and wants to hurt the US through hurting shale oil.

The shale oil boom is largely over because the infrastructure is in place and the prices are low. The advantage the US and Canada now have is we know its there and ready to ramp up whenever we need it. That's the key. The day of having to kowtow to OPEC are over.

What do you mean by "infrastructure is in place"? Fracking fields last about 5 minutes compared to conventional fields and then you are back to drilling...

The ones with the real issue are nations like Germany and China who still rely on these shady nations for much their life blood.

that is what you can do with commodity items..... buy cheap.

best regards
Thomas

I mean we know its there, how to get it quickly, and have the tools in place to do that.

Expect gas prices to drop maybe just 1-2 cents in the following weeks. But expect a 10 cent jump if oil recovers to $40.

That's how it usually goes, isn't it?

Dutchy wrote:

Redd wrote:

olle wrote:

Countries like Norway will be hit and will be thrown faster out of oilbusiness...

I think Norway's Oil Fund was created with this kind of situation in mind. Norway will be just fine.

Exactly, they have quite a reserve: 1.000bn USD for 5,3million people.

How come a McDonalds hamburger is $23 USD, then?

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Redd wrote:

I think Norway's Oil Fund was created with this kind of situation in mind. Norway will be just fine.

Exactly, they have quite a reserve: 1.000bn USD for 5,3million people.

How come a McDonalds hamburger is $23 USD, then?

What is the causal link between the two?

This is not a great day for anyone. A lot of true economic damage is now happening that will take years to repair. We are cutting into muscle now. The global commerce apparatus will not survive very well if orders, shipping and travel continue to be cancelled. So far, the impact will be temporary. If this continues for another month, lasting damage will have been done and the rosy period in global growth may be over for years to come.

High salaries cause high cost of living. The US is the anomaly.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Redd wrote:

I think Norway's Oil Fund was created with this kind of situation in mind. Norway will be just fine.

Exactly, they have quite a reserve: 1.000bn USD for 5,3million people.

How come a McDonalds hamburger is $23 USD, then?

Because someone made that up?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/274 ... a-big-mac/

Statistica wrote:

Switzerland 6.71
Norway 5.97
United States 5.67
Sweden 5.44
Canada 5.18
Israel 4.91
Brazil 4.8
Uruguay 4.78
Denmark 4.64
Euro area 4.58
Australia 4.45
Britain 4.41
Singapore 4.38

Best regards
Thomas

Redd wrote:

olle wrote:

Countries like Norway will be hit and will be thrown faster out of oilbusiness...

I think Norway's Oil Fund was created with this kind of situation in mind. Norway will be just fine.

Norway owns like 1-2% of all stock exchange in the world

What will be hit is day to day business in cities like Stavanger. They are bad hit since 2008...

The oil and the auto industry are still thinking that electric cars/trucks will not hit them until 2030, even after 2035. But a lot of others are predicting that this could happen by 2025. I suspect that electric cars/trucks will start cutting oil demand as early as 2023, a million barrels a day here, a million barrels a day there. Oil prices are historically very elastic, even minor permanent drops in consumption move markets. Solar and wind are hitting natural gas. To some degree consumption of oil and gas are fungible. The good news in this to me, at least, is that if we cut consumption of fossil fuels enough for ground transportation, aviation can use some of that fuel, and overall CO2 will go down substantially. (but maybe not quite enough)

The market situation is panic. Specifically, in the oil market, the following factors contribute to this: the lack of consensus on the fate of hydrocarbon fuels in the long term, the decline in short-term demand due to coronovirus and the collapse of OPEC +. I think the range of 6 months of price decline and stagnation seems likely. It seems to me that a negotiating position was developed until a complete understanding of the influence of the virus and the short-term drop in demand caused by it. In my opinion, the war has begun, but there will be no winners among producing countries. It is worth returning to negotiations and contributing to the stabilization of the market, although this is difficult in the short term.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

The oil and the auto industry are still thinking that electric cars/trucks will not hit them until 2030, even after 2035. But a lot of others are predicting that this could happen by 2025. I suspect that electric cars/trucks will start cutting oil demand as early as 2023, a million barrels a day here, a million barrels a day there. Oil prices are historically very elastic, even minor permanent drops in consumption move markets. Solar and wind are hitting natural gas. To some degree consumption of oil and gas are fungible. The good news in this to me, at least, is that if we cut consumption of fossil fuels enough for ground transportation, aviation can use some of that fuel, and overall CO2 will go down substantially. (but maybe not quite enough)

The EU has decided, and made rules, making it mandatory for car makers to sell electric cars. In France there is a gas guzzler tax on most cars (going up with each gram of CO2/Km), up to 20000€ now (a measly 16000€ Dacia Duster SUV with a 110hp 1.6 engine attracts that 20K tax), but this is only a French rule, meanwhile the EU has adopted something similar to CAFE, but much more draconian, with the fines for selling too many cars that emit too much in the billions. As a result luxury car makers will probably sell tens of thousands of electric cars at a loss just because it will be cheaper than to pay the fine.

Dutchy wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

Exactly, they have quite a reserve: 1.000bn USD for 5,3million people.

How come a McDonalds hamburger is $23 USD, then?

What is the causal link between the two?

https://www.sovereignman.com/lifestyle- ... axes-8235/

Yes, despite any errors, it’s an immensely expensive even with an oil subsidized government.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

How come a McDonalds hamburger is $23 USD, then?

What is the causal link between the two?

https://www.sovereignman.com/lifestyle- ... axes-8235/

Yes, despite any errors, it’s an immensely expensive even with an oil subsidized government.

This man seems ideology-driven, not fact-driven. Don't regard him as a reliable source, more just another opinion.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Dutchy wrote:

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

How come a McDonalds hamburger is $23 USD, then?

What is the causal link between the two?

https://www.sovereignman.com/lifestyle- ... axes-8235/

Yes, despite any errors, it’s an immensely expensive even with an oil subsidized government.

Honestly, I think there should be an official sport called "Americans Trying To Find Fault With Scandinavian Countries" because it seems to be a favourite pastime of Americans. While you're at it, stop eating all of those Big Mac's....

Redd wrote:

Honestly, I think there should be an official sport called "Americans Trying To Find Fault With Scandinavian Countries" because it seems to be a favourite pastime of Americans. While you're at it, stop eating all of those Big Mac's....

That's a generalization. Not all of us participate in the pastime.

LCDFlight wrote:

This is not a great day for anyone.

Yes, its very unfortunate how people are having a party on the markets crashing just to rub it to Trump for stupidly claiming the market rallies on himself. Yes it was stupid, but clearly everyone loses when the market and economy tanks. It goes to show that most leftist only care about power, they care nothing about people's lives being affected by the economy, they just want to come up and say we will solve all of your problems, just give us your vote.