mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Oil price crash

Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:49 pm

Redd wrote:

Honestly, I think there should be an official sport called "Americans Trying To Find Fault With Scandinavian Countries" because it seems to be a favourite pastime of Americans. While you're at it, stop eating all of those Big Mac's.... ;)


That's a laugh. Tommy alone surpasses all of it combined with his deep knowledge and solutions to America's problems...
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 746
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Oil price crash

Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:50 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
This is not a great day for anyone.


Yes, its very unfortunate how people are having a party on the markets crashing just to rub it to Trump for stupidly claiming the market rallies on himself. Yes it was stupid, but clearly everyone loses when the market and economy tanks. It goes to show that most leftist only care about power, they care nothing about people's lives being affected by the economy, they just want to come up and say we will solve all of your problems, just give us your vote.


Everyone loses when the markets tank,because the markets are based on faith in the economy. If their is a lack of faith in a church, people look to the pastors or they leave when they find the pastor lacking in answers. When there is a lack of faith in the economy we look to the leaders to answer the underlying crisis that is causing it . Currently Trump is not offering much in the way of leadership, and the markets are reacting badly. Maybe this virus vanishes, and all gets better. But what if it gets worse? Right now many business trips and plans are being canceled due to caution of what is not understood about this virus.
People that could have provided guidance and assurance had funds cut within the government, and now it is up to a bunch of folks battling within private industry and the CDC to fight out on the response, and we have to look to a President that thinks vaccines are not helpful and that Windmills cause cancer to referee?

The markets will continue downward for quite some time.


Congress and the white house just signed an 8.3 billion dollar package for coronavirus. Certainly you can't just say Trump is not doing anything. Yes he should just keep his mouth shut and let the experts do the talking and stop tweeting, but to say he hasn't done anything its unfair.
Not much other than that we can't ask our 'leaders'. They should let the experts do their job, they just gave them a ton of money to sort it out.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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casinterest
Posts: 10166
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Oil price crash

Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:54 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Yes, its very unfortunate how people are having a party on the markets crashing just to rub it to Trump for stupidly claiming the market rallies on himself. Yes it was stupid, but clearly everyone loses when the market and economy tanks. It goes to show that most leftist only care about power, they care nothing about people's lives being affected by the economy, they just want to come up and say we will solve all of your problems, just give us your vote.


Everyone loses when the markets tank,because the markets are based on faith in the economy. If their is a lack of faith in a church, people look to the pastors or they leave when they find the pastor lacking in answers. When there is a lack of faith in the economy we look to the leaders to answer the underlying crisis that is causing it . Currently Trump is not offering much in the way of leadership, and the markets are reacting badly. Maybe this virus vanishes, and all gets better. But what if it gets worse? Right now many business trips and plans are being canceled due to caution of what is not understood about this virus.
People that could have provided guidance and assurance had funds cut within the government, and now it is up to a bunch of folks battling within private industry and the CDC to fight out on the response, and we have to look to a President that thinks vaccines are not helpful and that Windmills cause cancer to referee?

The markets will continue downward for quite some time.


Congress and the white house just signed an 8.3 billion dollar package for coronavirus. Certainly you can't just say Trump is not doing anything. Yes he should just keep his mouth shut and let the experts do the talking and stop tweeting, but to say he hasn't done anything its unfair.
Not much other than that we can't ask our 'leaders'. They should let the experts do their job, they just gave them a ton of money to sort it out.


The issue is the emergency vs the planning. Here is 8.3 billion dollars. produce now.
However the 8.3 Billion is for fighting the damn disease, not stopping it, or having plans for how to contain it. The items we have government for.

This is just rich people throwing money into the air and saying "Fix it!" ,clap , clap "Fix it!' , clap ,clap.
8.3 billion looks rather paltry when you consider how much market cap has been lost in the oil industry alone today.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 746
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Oil price crash

Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:58 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

Everyone loses when the markets tank,because the markets are based on faith in the economy. If their is a lack of faith in a church, people look to the pastors or they leave when they find the pastor lacking in answers. When there is a lack of faith in the economy we look to the leaders to answer the underlying crisis that is causing it . Currently Trump is not offering much in the way of leadership, and the markets are reacting badly. Maybe this virus vanishes, and all gets better. But what if it gets worse? Right now many business trips and plans are being canceled due to caution of what is not understood about this virus.
People that could have provided guidance and assurance had funds cut within the government, and now it is up to a bunch of folks battling within private industry and the CDC to fight out on the response, and we have to look to a President that thinks vaccines are not helpful and that Windmills cause cancer to referee?

The markets will continue downward for quite some time.


Congress and the white house just signed an 8.3 billion dollar package for coronavirus. Certainly you can't just say Trump is not doing anything. Yes he should just keep his mouth shut and let the experts do the talking and stop tweeting, but to say he hasn't done anything its unfair.
Not much other than that we can't ask our 'leaders'. They should let the experts do their job, they just gave them a ton of money to sort it out.


The issue is the emergency vs the planning. Here is 8.3 billion dollars. produce now.
However the 8.3 Billion is for fighting the damn disease, not stopping it, or having plans for how to contain it. The items we have government for.

This is just rich people throwing money into the air and saying "Fix it!" ,clap , clap "Fix it!' , clap ,clap.
8.3 billion looks rather paltry when you consider how much market cap has been lost in the oil industry alone today.


Well as for containmnet its alright to blame it all on Trump. But this country has 50 local state governments, then much more smaller ones.

Just yesterday in LA, there was a marathon: https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... oronavirus

Thousands of people on one of the cities with most infected people gathered for this. Where was the democratic mayor of LA, or the democratic governor? saying not to do it?

Blame everything on Trump yes.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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casinterest
Posts: 10166
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Oil price crash

Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:03 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Congress and the white house just signed an 8.3 billion dollar package for coronavirus. Certainly you can't just say Trump is not doing anything. Yes he should just keep his mouth shut and let the experts do the talking and stop tweeting, but to say he hasn't done anything its unfair.
Not much other than that we can't ask our 'leaders'. They should let the experts do their job, they just gave them a ton of money to sort it out.


The issue is the emergency vs the planning. Here is 8.3 billion dollars. produce now.
However the 8.3 Billion is for fighting the damn disease, not stopping it, or having plans for how to contain it. The items we have government for.

This is just rich people throwing money into the air and saying "Fix it!" ,clap , clap "Fix it!' , clap ,clap.
8.3 billion looks rather paltry when you consider how much market cap has been lost in the oil industry alone today.


Well as for containmnet its alright to blame it all on Trump. But this country has 50 local state governments, then much more smaller ones.

Just yesterday in LA, there was a marathon: https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... oronavirus

Thousands of people on one of the cities with most infected people gathered for this. Where was the democratic mayor of LA, or the democratic governor? saying not to do it?

Blame everything on Trump yes.


The country right now is doing what it can in localized areas. We have no real leadership from the top. So if LA wants to run a marathon they can. They evaluated the risk and saw none. There is no guidance coming out from the CDC to say otherwise. Trump wants to pretend it isn't happening. That is not leadership. It is stupidity. He doesn't trust scientists or health officials, and he put a man that has even less faith in science in charge of the response group.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 10974
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Oil price crash

Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:46 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Yes, its very unfortunate how people are having a party on the markets crashing just to rub it to Trump for stupidly claiming the market rallies on himself. Yes it was stupid, but clearly everyone loses when the market and economy tanks. It goes to show that most leftist only care about power, they care nothing about people's lives being affected by the economy, they just want to come up and say we will solve all of your problems, just give us your vote.


Everyone loses when the markets tank,because the markets are based on faith in the economy. If their is a lack of faith in a church, people look to the pastors or they leave when they find the pastor lacking in answers. When there is a lack of faith in the economy we look to the leaders to answer the underlying crisis that is causing it . Currently Trump is not offering much in the way of leadership, and the markets are reacting badly. Maybe this virus vanishes, and all gets better. But what if it gets worse? Right now many business trips and plans are being canceled due to caution of what is not understood about this virus.
People that could have provided guidance and assurance had funds cut within the government, and now it is up to a bunch of folks battling within private industry and the CDC to fight out on the response, and we have to look to a President that thinks vaccines are not helpful and that Windmills cause cancer to referee?

The markets will continue downward for quite some time.


Congress and the white house just signed an 8.3 billion dollar package for coronavirus. Certainly you can't just say Trump is not doing anything. Yes he should just keep his mouth shut and let the experts do the talking and stop tweeting, but to say he hasn't done anything its unfair.
Not much other than that we can't ask our 'leaders'. They should let the experts do their job, they just gave them a ton of money to sort it out.


Oh oops - someone isn’t seeing the big picture view again. Here, let me help:

https://www.healio.com/pediatrics/emerg ... bal-health
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
ltbewr
Posts: 14665
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:37 am

There has been a death spiral of oil prices for a while, with some very bad affects on oil production countries, with Venezuela the worst hit. Russia and Saudi Arabia, also rely on oil money too much to pay for real needs and leaders had planned spending to keep in power based on much higher oil prices. Another problem is when oil prices go up to new highs, then more is invested in new oil production, in the last decade with 'fracking' and other techniques where the higher price makes it worthwhile. Then there is over production to demand, so prices drop. The current drop is in parts due to the affects of the coronavirus in China and elsewhere but also to shifts in energy use from oil. It is likely the low prices may dip somewhat lower and eventually production will shut down in higher production cost places, bankrupting investors and as a major worldwide recession kicks in.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:56 am

First of all Trump should look worried, and not about the stock market (talking about the DOW while at the CDC, a new low for him), but about the virus, that will hurt and kill some of his fellow citizens (some who might be millions in the worst case scenario).

That would be a good start.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 11100
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:21 am

Aesma wrote:
First of all Trump should look worried, and not about the stock market (talking about the DOW while at the CDC, a new low for him), but about the virus, that will hurt and kill some of his fellow citizens (some who might be millions in the worst case scenario).

That would be a good start.


What would be a good start exactly? I think I'm misunderstanding yu.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
Posts: 1666
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:37 am

Aesma wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The oil and the auto industry are still thinking that electric cars/trucks will not hit them until 2030, even after 2035. But a lot of others are predicting that this could happen by 2025. I suspect that electric cars/trucks will start cutting oil demand as early as 2023, a million barrels a day here, a million barrels a day there. Oil prices are historically very elastic, even minor permanent drops in consumption move markets. Solar and wind are hitting natural gas. To some degree consumption of oil and gas are fungible. The good news in this to me, at least, is that if we cut consumption of fossil fuels enough for ground transportation, aviation can use some of that fuel, and overall CO2 will go down substantially. (but maybe not quite enough)


The EU has decided, and made rules, making it mandatory for car makers to sell electric cars. In France there is a gas guzzler tax on most cars (going up with each gram of CO2/Km), up to 20000€ now (a measly 16000€ Dacia Duster SUV with a 110hp 1.6 engine attracts that 20K tax), but this is only a French rule, meanwhile the EU has adopted something similar to CAFE, but much more draconian, with the fines for selling too many cars that emit too much in the billions. As a result luxury car makers will probably sell tens of thousands of electric cars at a loss just because it will be cheaper than to pay the fine.



For the cars still existing in 2030 the fuel used will include a major part renewable fuel. So new cars will use less or 0, and existing fleet will use around 60% fossil fuel at that time. Russia and Saudi knows this but do not want to mention it to its populations.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:40 am

Dutchy wrote:
Aesma wrote:
First of all Trump should look worried, and not about the stock market (talking about the DOW while at the CDC, a new low for him), but about the virus, that will hurt and kill some of his fellow citizens (some who might be millions in the worst case scenario).

That would be a good start.


What would be a good start exactly? I think I'm misunderstanding yu.


To look worried about his fellow citizens, instead of moaning about his beloved DOW.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12178
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:16 am

mham001 wrote:
Redd wrote:

Honestly, I think there should be an official sport called "Americans Trying To Find Fault With Scandinavian Countries" because it seems to be a favourite pastime of Americans. While you're at it, stop eating all of those Big Mac's.... ;)


That's a laugh. Tommy alone surpasses all of it combined with his deep knowledge and solutions to America's problems...


Differnce being: i am not making up shit like 23 USD burgers....

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 11100
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:25 am

Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:22 am

Aesma wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Aesma wrote:
First of all Trump should look worried, and not about the stock market (talking about the DOW while at the CDC, a new low for him), but about the virus, that will hurt and kill some of his fellow citizens (some who might be millions in the worst case scenario).

That would be a good start.


What would be a good start exactly? I think I'm misunderstanding yu.


To look worried about his fellow citizens, instead of moaning about his beloved DOW.


Ah right, I think that is a step too far for a narcissistic guy like Trump.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
Posts: 11100
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:24 am

olle wrote:
Aesma wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The oil and the auto industry are still thinking that electric cars/trucks will not hit them until 2030, even after 2035. But a lot of others are predicting that this could happen by 2025. I suspect that electric cars/trucks will start cutting oil demand as early as 2023, a million barrels a day here, a million barrels a day there. Oil prices are historically very elastic, even minor permanent drops in consumption move markets. Solar and wind are hitting natural gas. To some degree consumption of oil and gas are fungible. The good news in this to me, at least, is that if we cut consumption of fossil fuels enough for ground transportation, aviation can use some of that fuel, and overall CO2 will go down substantially. (but maybe not quite enough)


The EU has decided, and made rules, making it mandatory for car makers to sell electric cars. In France there is a gas guzzler tax on most cars (going up with each gram of CO2/Km), up to 20000€ now (a measly 16000€ Dacia Duster SUV with a 110hp 1.6 engine attracts that 20K tax), but this is only a French rule, meanwhile the EU has adopted something similar to CAFE, but much more draconian, with the fines for selling too many cars that emit too much in the billions. As a result luxury car makers will probably sell tens of thousands of electric cars at a loss just because it will be cheaper than to pay the fine.



For the cars still existing in 2030 the fuel used will include a major part renewable fuel. So new cars will use less or 0, and existing fleet will use around 60% fossil fuel at that time. Russia and Saudi knows this but do not want to mention it to its populations.


Saudi Arabia actually prepares itself for a world without fossil fuels, they have sold 5% of its Aramco. They are investing it in other parts of the economy.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
olle
Posts: 1666
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:40 am

Dutchy wrote:
olle wrote:
Aesma wrote:

The EU has decided, and made rules, making it mandatory for car makers to sell electric cars. In France there is a gas guzzler tax on most cars (going up with each gram of CO2/Km), up to 20000€ now (a measly 16000€ Dacia Duster SUV with a 110hp 1.6 engine attracts that 20K tax), but this is only a French rule, meanwhile the EU has adopted something similar to CAFE, but much more draconian, with the fines for selling too many cars that emit too much in the billions. As a result luxury car makers will probably sell tens of thousands of electric cars at a loss just because it will be cheaper than to pay the fine.



For the cars still existing in 2030 the fuel used will include a major part renewable fuel. So new cars will use less or 0, and existing fleet will use around 60% fossil fuel at that time. Russia and Saudi knows this but do not want to mention it to its populations.


Saudi Arabia actually prepares itself for a world without fossil fuels, they have sold 5% of its Aramco. They are investing it in other parts of the economy.


The problems is for economies like Norway and I assume Saudi is that the economies has been heavily infuanced by the oil industry. Norwegian companies has problem to act on the international market. Big adjustments will arrive within one generation and adjustments will cause troubles. Will Saudi for example want to pay for the big royal family?
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:43 pm

Aesma wrote:
First of all Trump should look worried, and not about the stock market (talking about the DOW while at the CDC, a new low for him), but about the virus, that will hurt and kill some of his fellow citizens (some who might be millions in the worst case scenario).

That would be a good start.


Yes, you can start by your President Macron, tell him to stop encouraging people to go to the theater,

https://people.bfmtv.com/actualite-peop ... 70852.html

He went there last Friday, all the while France is getting worse by the day with the crisis.

Get your house in order first before you criticize others.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aesma
Posts: 12514
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:23 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
First of all Trump should look worried, and not about the stock market (talking about the DOW while at the CDC, a new low for him), but about the virus, that will hurt and kill some of his fellow citizens (some who might be millions in the worst case scenario).

That would be a good start.


Yes, you can start by your President Macron, tell him to stop encouraging people to go to the theater,

https://people.bfmtv.com/actualite-peop ... 70852.html

He went there last Friday, all the while France is getting worse by the day with the crisis.

Get your house in order first before you criticize others.


From your own article Macron has cancelled everything last week and only worked on the pandemic. No political rally, stuff like that (there is an election in a few days).

I disagree with the theater thing, and in fact the day after that the threshold for cancelling large gatherings has been lowered from 5000 to 1000 (my parents were due to attend a Tri Yann concert at the Olympia, now it's over), theater might be out of the question before long.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:36 pm

casinterest wrote:
The issue is the emergency vs the planning. Here is 8.3 billion dollars. produce now.
However the 8.3 Billion is for fighting the damn disease, not stopping it, or having plans for how to contain it. The items we have government for.

This is just rich people throwing money into the air and saying "Fix it!" ,clap , clap "Fix it!' , clap ,clap.
8.3 billion looks rather paltry when you consider how much market cap has been lost in the oil industry alone today.


Why don't you just admit it, it doesn't matter what Trump did, your knee jerks and you don't like it.

Aesma wrote:
First of all Trump should look worried, and not about the stock market (talking about the DOW while at the CDC, a new low for him), but about the virus, that will hurt and kill some of his fellow citizens (some who might be millions in the worst case scenario).

That would be a good start.


It would be a "good start" if millions of Americans died? What exactly are you saying? And why exactly do you spend so much time involved in US issues when you seem to have the greater problem within your own borders? France - twice the number of known infections and deaths with ~1/3 the population and you are worried about the look on Trump's face? I do not understand this obsession some of you have with a country you don't live in, while your own country flounders.

tommy1808 wrote:
mham001 wrote:
That's a laugh. Tommy alone surpasses all of it combined with his deep knowledge and solutions to America's problems...


Differnce being: i am not making up shit like 23 USD burgers....

Best regards
Thomas


LOL, That comment is rich. With the amount of misinformation you've routinely laid around here over the years about a country you visited once for a few days, I don't think you really want to make that argument.

Back on subject. Russia will be forced to capitulate before US shale is badly hurt. Some smaller producers will go bankrupt and will not recover because they won't get credit, but shale has already been largely consolidated by the big players, Exon, et al. They have the deep pockets to stay alive and it shouldn't be forgotten that shale has the ability to quickly scale up again when prices inevitably rise again when demand picks up. At any rate, the point at which US shale makes money and Russian wells makes money is not significant. Russian companies need that money as much as US oil companies. https://seekingalpha.com/article/433076 ... -scenarios
Last edited by mham001 on Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12178
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:37 pm

Aesma wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
First of all Trump should look worried, and not about the stock market (talking about the DOW while at the CDC, a new low for him), but about the virus, that will hurt and kill some of his fellow citizens (some who might be millions in the worst case scenario).

That would be a good start.


Yes, you can start by your President Macron, tell him to stop encouraging people to go to the theater,

https://people.bfmtv.com/actualite-peop ... 70852.html

He went there last Friday, all the while France is getting worse by the day with the crisis.

Get your house in order first before you criticize others.


From your own article Macron has cancelled everything last week and only worked on the pandemic. No political rally, stuff like that (there is an election in a few days).

I disagree with the theater thing, and in fact the day after that the threshold for cancelling large gatherings has been lowered from 5000 to 1000 (my parents were due to attend a Tri Yann concert at the Olympia, now it's over), theater might be out of the question before long.


Plus the tiny bit that France, just like almost everyone else, stocked up on test kits once they became available in late January....

So you just know better how many are infected..... just compare number of death vs. Number of known infected. It's not more lethal in Spain, France or Germany than in the US....

Best regards
Thomas
....the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 746
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:02 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Yes, you can start by your President Macron, tell him to stop encouraging people to go to the theater,

https://people.bfmtv.com/actualite-peop ... 70852.html

He went there last Friday, all the while France is getting worse by the day with the crisis.

Get your house in order first before you criticize others.



From your own article Macron has cancelled everything last week and only worked on the pandemic. No political rally, stuff like that (there is an election in a few days).

I disagree with the theater thing, and in fact the day after that the threshold for cancelling large gatherings has been lowered from 5000 to 1000 (my parents were due to attend a Tri Yann concert at the Olympia, now it's over), theater might be out of the question before long.


Plus the tiny bit that France, just like almost everyone else, stocked up on test kits once they became available in late January....

So you just know better how many are infected..... just compare number of death vs. Number of known infected. It's not more lethal in Spain, France or Germany than in the US....

Best regards
Thomas


Again, how stocking up test kits helped with the current crisis? And reduce infections?
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 10974
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:26 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Tell me how they are mishandling and how would you do it better?what is it and try not to be partisan.


I already did that in reply 137 of the Dow thread when another 45 apologist wrongly claimed everything he's doing is just to avoid panic. But since panic has happened anyway, I'll repost for you here:

The way to prevent panic is by stating clear factual knowns and unknowns and outlining clear plans of action with designated SMEs. Make empathetic statements like ‘it is natural to worry if you have elderly relatives - ensure they are taking all possible precautions’ etc. Crisis PR 101. So far the WH has made comments counter to what SMEs are saying and has put limits on what they can say, and have pointed fingers while emphasizing only positive news - that’s why both investors and the public feel unease. Government should act like a steady rock of dispassionate analysis and decisionmaking in events like these

Two opinions in the conservative Washington Examiner backing up mine:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opin ... rship-test

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opin ... oronavirus
Last edited by Aaron747 on Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 746
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:31 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Tell me how they are mishandling and how would you do it better?what is it and try not to be partisan.


I already did that in reply 137 of the Dow thread when another 45 apologist wrongly claimed everything he's doing is just to avoid panic. But since panic has happened anyway, I'll repost for you here:

The way to prevent panic is by stating clear factual knowns and unknowns and outlining clear plans of action with designated SMEs. Make empathetic statements like ‘it is natural to worry if you have elderly relatives - ensure they are taking all possible precautions’ etc. Crisis PR 101. So far the WH has made comments counter to what SMEs are saying and has put limits on what they can say, and have pointed fingers while emphasizing only positive news - that’s why both investors and the public feel unease. Government should act like a steady rock of dispassionate analysis and decisionmaking in events like these


Opinions opinions to score political points out of a world crisis. Who is worse Trump not focusing or the opposition using everything going on to get votes while people die or get seriously sick?

Your governor from your extreme liberal state said he is very happy with the Trump administration. But of course it goes against the narrative.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 10974
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:33 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Tell me how they are mishandling and how would you do it better?what is it and try not to be partisan.


I already did that in reply 137 of the Dow thread when another 45 apologist wrongly claimed everything he's doing is just to avoid panic. But since panic has happened anyway, I'll repost for you here:

The way to prevent panic is by stating clear factual knowns and unknowns and outlining clear plans of action with designated SMEs. Make empathetic statements like ‘it is natural to worry if you have elderly relatives - ensure they are taking all possible precautions’ etc. Crisis PR 101. So far the WH has made comments counter to what SMEs are saying and has put limits on what they can say, and have pointed fingers while emphasizing only positive news - that’s why both investors and the public feel unease. Government should act like a steady rock of dispassionate analysis and decisionmaking in events like these


Opinions opinions to score political points out of a world crisis. Who is worse Trump not focusing or the opposition using everything going on to get votes while people die or get seriously sick?

Your governor from your extreme liberal state said he is very happy with the Trump administration. But of course it goes against the narrative.


Not opinions - everything I stated has actually happened, and the proper steps to manage crisis are taught in all communications and corporate PR courses. It's not my problem you have never taken any. You DO NOT make statements opposite what an SME has said ON THE SAME DAY on the SAME TOPIC and expect to be taken seriously. That is a basic management failure of the first order.

See above where I added recent op-eds saying same. The criticism is coming from both sides - this is not a partisan view.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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casinterest
Posts: 10166
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:34 pm

mham001 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
The issue is the emergency vs the planning. Here is 8.3 billion dollars. produce now.
However the 8.3 Billion is for fighting the damn disease, not stopping it, or having plans for how to contain it. The items we have government for.

This is just rich people throwing money into the air and saying "Fix it!" ,clap , clap "Fix it!' , clap ,clap.
8.3 billion looks rather paltry when you consider how much market cap has been lost in the oil industry alone today.


Why don't you just admit it, it doesn't matter what Trump did, your knee jerks and you don't like it.


Try this on for size. I actually knew Trump was and is an absolute incompetent, Narcissistic, liar that is incapable of running a Country from day one. If you think he is so great, explain why he cut the budget and people from the pandemic response groups?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 746
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:48 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

I already did that in reply 137 of the Dow thread when another 45 apologist wrongly claimed everything he's doing is just to avoid panic. But since panic has happened anyway, I'll repost for you here:

The way to prevent panic is by stating clear factual knowns and unknowns and outlining clear plans of action with designated SMEs. Make empathetic statements like ‘it is natural to worry if you have elderly relatives - ensure they are taking all possible precautions’ etc. Crisis PR 101. So far the WH has made comments counter to what SMEs are saying and has put limits on what they can say, and have pointed fingers while emphasizing only positive news - that’s why both investors and the public feel unease. Government should act like a steady rock of dispassionate analysis and decisionmaking in events like these


Opinions opinions to score political points out of a world crisis. Who is worse Trump not focusing or the opposition using everything going on to get votes while people die or get seriously sick?

Your governor from your extreme liberal state said he is very happy with the Trump administration. But of course it goes against the narrative.


Not opinions - everything I stated has actually happened, and the proper steps to manage crisis are taught in all communications and corporate PR courses. It's not my problem you have never taken any. You DO NOT make statements opposite what an SME has said ON THE SAME DAY on the SAME TOPIC and expect to be taken seriously. That is a basic management failure of the first order.

See above where I added recent op-eds saying same. The criticism is coming from both sides - this is not a partisan view.



Ok so what have been the consequences of this other than the “panic” you mention which I havent seen on the street here.

Yes the messaging is not great, but here you are just exaggerating the results of the mistakes, of which most administrations before this one also encountered when dealing with similar situations.

Like I said, Trump should shut up, but you trying to capitalize on this is not good, take your partisan hat to actually believe that.
“In my experience eloquent men are right every bit as often as imbeciles.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:48 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Opinions opinions to score political points out of a world crisis. Who is worse Trump not focusing or the opposition using everything going on to get votes while people die or get seriously sick?

Your governor from your extreme liberal state said he is very happy with the Trump administration. But of course it goes against the narrative.


Not opinions - everything I stated has actually happened, and the proper steps to manage crisis are taught in all communications and corporate PR courses. It's not my problem you have never taken any. You DO NOT make statements opposite what an SME has said ON THE SAME DAY on the SAME TOPIC and expect to be taken seriously. That is a basic management failure of the first order.

See above where I added recent op-eds saying same. The criticism is coming from both sides - this is not a partisan view.



Ok so what have been the consequences of this other than the “panic” you mention which I havent seen on the street here.

Yes the messaging is not great, but here you are just exaggerating the results of the mistakes, of which most administrations before this one also encountered when dealing with similar situations.

Like I said, Trump should shut up, but you trying to capitalize on this is not good, take your partisan hat to actually believe that.


Confusion in the public and a reduction in public adherence to SME information and opinions. ONLY medical professionals and epidemiologists opinions and statements on the situation should be relevant to the public. As I stated in reply 561 of the Democratic Primary thread when 45 claimed this in yesterday's tweet:

So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!

I said that statement was unscientific, and someone else replied that his statement was not unscientific. That response was wrong, because he commented on a 100% science-based situation with unscientific and misleading opinion:

And the statement *is* unscientific - he made a comparison to annual figures and averages for the flu. We don’t have annual (much less average) data for COVID-19 yet, so attempting to downplay by using figures ‘at this moment’ is a no-no in statistics. Comparisons made with incompatible data sets are totally invalid.

A responsible professional would never say the above tweet, and compare apples and oranges information when trying to 'reassure' the public. He was trying to make himself look better. No partisan hat here - I have said since January 2017 he would run an unprofessional, poorly-managed operation.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Sokes
Posts: 768
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Re: Oil price crash

Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:38 am

Derico wrote:
”For U.S. shale, a disaster lies ahead....
Worse, the wave of debt taken out during the 2014-2016 downturn is about to come due. North American oil and gas companies have more than $200 billion in debt maturing over the next four years, with $40 billion due this year“ https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... lapse.html


Interesting. Thanks for the link.
Is 40 billion$/ year maturing debt normal? For if debt maturity fluctuates a lot it makes sense for the cheaper oil/ gas producers to lower prices before debt matures.

Another thing to think about is the Green Paradox. If hydrocarbon demand in future is expected to go down the owners of those hydrocarbons will try to sell it earlier, even if they have to sell it cheaper to increase demand.
Maybe Russia believes that electric mobility is before a breakthrough. If moreover low prices help to destroy the American competition, reduced prices make sense.

If you got ten minutes, you may watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6M56x4c99I&t=36m53s
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
olle
Posts: 1666
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Oil price crash

Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:48 am

Sokes wrote:
Derico wrote:
”For U.S. shale, a disaster lies ahead....
Worse, the wave of debt taken out during the 2014-2016 downturn is about to come due. North American oil and gas companies have more than $200 billion in debt maturing over the next four years, with $40 billion due this year“ https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... lapse.html


Interesting. Thanks for the link.
Is 40 billion$/ year maturing debt normal? For if debt maturity fluctuates a lot it makes sense for the cheaper oil/ gas producers to lower prices before debt matures.

Another thing to think about is the Green Paradox. If hydrocarbon demand in future is expected to go down the owners of those hydrocarbons will try to sell it earlier, even if they have to sell it cheaper to increase demand.
Maybe Russia believes that electric mobility is before a breakthrough. If moreover low prices help to destroy the American competition, reduced prices make sense.

If you got ten minutes, you may watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6M56x4c99I&t=36m53s



This "green paradox" is very much true. 20 years ago all producers tried to be the ones with oil reserves left beyond 2035 and expected to beeven richer. Now all see that prices beyond 2035 will be squeezed because of the biggest consumer regions have or are changing over to other sources of energy.

It is also therefore the oil producing news outlets like rt.com and major oil companies spend so much money to try to delay this transformation.

But now we have the fact that the cheapest energy is today wind and solar. Nothing can change this fact and it will only accelerate. The high prices a few years ago was in fact the final nail in oil and the start of the energy revolution.
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Oil price crash

Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:24 pm

Sokes wrote:
Derico wrote:
”For U.S. shale, a disaster lies ahead....
Worse, the wave of debt taken out during the 2014-2016 downturn is about to come due. North American oil and gas companies have more than $200 billion in debt maturing over the next four years, with $40 billion due this year“ https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... lapse.html


Interesting. Thanks for the link.
Is 40 billion$/ year maturing debt normal? For if debt maturity fluctuates a lot it makes sense for the cheaper oil/ gas producers to lower prices before debt matures.


I went and read that article. It is an opinion by an independent writer who often uses his own articles, already based upon questionable reasoning (208 bankruptcies in the US oil and gas industry!!! OMG!! except that is since 2015), as sources to come to the conclusion being spread about here now. Like a virus.

Meanwhile...
When the energy debt is coming due
Of $86 billion in debt that exploration and production companies have to refinance or repay by 2024, only $5.3 billion is due this year, and only $1.7 billion of that is junk. The biggest chunk is due in 2022, at $25.7 billion.

Only 10 companies in the exploration and production sector, the most vulnerable part of the business, account for nearly half of the debt coming due by 2024, Moody’s said. The biggest is Occidental Petroleum at $14 billion of its $40 billion in long-term debt. None of it is due this year, though, according to Oxy’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The company has until 2021 and 2022 to make most of its repay-or-refinance decisions.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/in-oil- ... oblem.html

I expect the shale industry will continue to prove it resilience as it did in 2016. We already know that they will continue to pump at any price once the well is drilled. Can Putin hold out longer than the Saudis in 2016? I doubt it. Any critic of Putin should hope not as well.
 
Sokes
Posts: 768
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Re: Oil price crash

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:42 pm

@mham001:
Thanks for the correction.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 12618
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Oil price crash

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:51 pm

olle wrote:
Norwegian markets and Krona falls heavily.


The krone has been falling for the last few years. It’s a pity we aren’t part of the Euro zone.
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 12618
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Re: Oil price crash

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:55 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Redd wrote:

I think Norway's Oil Fund was created with this kind of situation in mind. Norway will be just fine.


Exactly, they have quite a reserve: 1.000bn USD for 5,3million people.


How come a McDonalds hamburger is $23 USD, then?


It’s about $12 for a double quarter pounder meal, large fries and a coke.
 
Kiwirob
Posts: 12618
Joined: Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:16 pm

Re: Oil price crash

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:58 pm

Aesma wrote:
High salaries cause high cost of living. The US is the anomaly.


That’s because the US has a large class of people who earn next to nothing and a service industry which requires people to tip to provide wages. Pay people properly and the US won’t be an anomaly any longer.
 
Sokes
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Re: Oil price crash

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:41 am

I go of topic. Skip if not interested.

Kiwirob wrote:
Aesma wrote:
High salaries cause high cost of living. The US is the anomaly.


That’s because the US has a large class of people who earn next to nothing and a service industry which requires people to tip to provide wages. Pay people properly and the US won’t be an anomaly any longer.


I'm not sure if Aesma's statement always has to be so. For services it's obvious. Barber with higher salaries have to charge more.
But cost of living includes rent. Housing availability depends mostly on how far politics creates artificial shortage.
Transport in developing countries is not necessarily cheaper even if the truck driver earns maybe 10% of a driver in a rich country.

In Germany before prime minister Schroeder lazy people could just live on government cost. That increased starting salaries and probably pushed up salaries for even trained labor like car mechanics. Obviously that's only a solution for societies that advanced from Thorstein Veblen's "Theory of the leisure class".
Should the government pay anything extra when people who live on welfare get children?
In the 19th century many people believed that social welfare leads to survival of the least fit.
Buddha would say the truth is somewhere in the middle.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
olle
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:27 am

Today oil price go below usd 30.
 
Okie
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:17 pm

olle wrote:
Today oil price go below usd 30


Bucket-Barrel ratio

12pc Bucket of KFC Chicken $29.99 vs Barrel WTI $29.11.


Okie
 
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casinterest
Posts: 10166
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Re: Oil price crash

Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:21 pm

Okie wrote:
olle wrote:
Today oil price go below usd 30


Bucket-Barrel ratio

12pc Bucket of KFC Chicken $29.99 vs Barrel WTI $29.11.


Okie


When you look at it that way. It's pretty cheap.

Especially since one can get Pac Man for 29.99

https://www.belk.com/p/arcade1up-6-inch ... lsrc=aw.ds
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Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 980
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Re: Oil price crash

Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:57 pm

Oil is taking another beating today, crude oil WTI now trading 17% down at 22,60 EUR.

https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil


If we adjust for inflation, I think that we are looking at historical lows.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude- ... tory-chart
 
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casinterest
Posts: 10166
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Re: Oil price crash

Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:06 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Oil is taking another beating today, crude oil WTI now trading 17% down at 22,60 EUR.

https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil


If we adjust for inflation, I think that we are looking at historical lows.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude- ... tory-chart


Well ,when you look at what has occurred. Record setting oil production combined with a Record Setting slash back of use of oil ( cars and aviation), and it sets up a really big problem of oversupply.

Demand is down even with lowering prices. Currently Covid-19 is destroying the normal supply demand curve.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Oil price crash

Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:12 pm

Image
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
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DL717
Posts: 2020
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Re: Oil price crash

Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:59 pm

Flirting with an average of $20... just topped off the car at $1.99 a gallon.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-p ... 2020-03-19
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Aesma
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Re: Oil price crash

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:35 pm

The US/Trump complaining when they're responsible for this is quite funny.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Tugger
Posts: 9839
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Re: Oil price crash

Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:47 pm

Aesma wrote:
The US/Trump complaining when they're responsible for this is quite funny.

"Responsible"? Ummm... fracking is likely a prime motivator but "the cause" is Saudi Arabia seeking a new balance and Russia getting into it with them.

Saudi Arabia is following a new path, seeking to monetize their asset as fast as possible to prevent it becoming a dead asset in the future. They are also seeking to push fracking and other higher cost oil out of the market and establish their preeminence again. Russia is along for the ride for now and can weather most of this with cash reserves exceeding $550B, which is more than what Saudi Arabia has.

Tugg
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mham001
Posts: 5745
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

Re: Oil price crash

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:10 pm

Aesma wrote:
The US/Trump complaining when they're responsible for this is quite funny.


And the Euros are loathe to admit that American technology is saving the day for them. Again.

But who is "complaining", besides those in the oil sector? Please tell us the source of your amusement.
 
mham001
Posts: 5745
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Re: Oil price crash

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:12 pm

I have noticed that gas prices in my area have still only dropped ~2% ($2.95/gal), but one slight uptick will see prices rise the next day.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 10974
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Re: Oil price crash

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:21 pm

mham001 wrote:
I have noticed that gas prices in my area have still only dropped ~2% ($2.95/gal), but one slight uptick will see prices rise the next day.


Unsurprising since the operators have exorbitant rent to pay for wherever they live, and gas stations are not known for being particularly profitable. If they sell a shit-ton of coffee and ready-made sandwiches they can probably hit 6-7 cents on the gallon.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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casinterest
Posts: 10166
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Oil price crash

Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:00 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
mham001 wrote:
I have noticed that gas prices in my area have still only dropped ~2% ($2.95/gal), but one slight uptick will see prices rise the next day.


Unsurprising since the operators have exorbitant rent to pay for wherever they live, and gas stations are not known for being particularly profitable. If they sell a shit-ton of coffee and ready-made sandwiches they can probably hit 6-7 cents on the gallon.

My wife paid 1.89 today at a non-wharehouse usually expensive place.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 10974
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Re: Oil price crash

Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:03 pm

casinterest wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
mham001 wrote:
I have noticed that gas prices in my area have still only dropped ~2% ($2.95/gal), but one slight uptick will see prices rise the next day.


Unsurprising since the operators have exorbitant rent to pay for wherever they live, and gas stations are not known for being particularly profitable. If they sell a shit-ton of coffee and ready-made sandwiches they can probably hit 6-7 cents on the gallon.

My wife paid 1.89 today at a non-wharehouse usually expensive place.


Costco gas is $2.70 in the San Jose area. Wherever you are is a helluva lot cheaper!
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Okie
Posts: 4077
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2003 11:30 am

Re: Oil price crash

Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:19 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Costco gas is $2.70 in the San Jose area. Wherever you are is a helluva lot cheaper!


$1.15 at Sam's and Costco.

WTI 23.64 bbl

Headlines in local paper "Dairy Queen lays off two more Geologists"

Okie
 
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TheFlyingDisk
Posts: 1997
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Re: Oil price crash

Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:54 am

Given the freaking low prices of petroleum, how will this affect the electrification movement?

Is Tesla going to take a hit since people would rather keep their gas guzzlers at the moment?
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