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uta999
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UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:48 am

Climate change:

The UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050, unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely, a report says.

But it warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle.

The report challenges the views of campaign group Extinction Rebellion.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51804212

BBC News
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Dutchy
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:57 am

But the authors offer some optimism too. They calculate that the UK can cut emissions fast enough to be climate neutral by 2050 – but only if ministers act much more quickly.

They say the government urgently needs to invest in three key technologies: carbon capture and storage with bioenergy crops; hydrogen for a wide variety of uses; and advanced nuclear power.


From the report. So the government should act now and not wait and it can be done. So it is an ambiguous massage.
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Aesma
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:17 am

Extinction Rebellion asks the government and the people to do more, much more, much much more, than is being done today. They don't go into details, they say the science is there to show the problem, it's up to politicians to choose how to tackle it. Their beef is with politicians that do nothing or too little, not with any particular technology or change.

Eating less meat is pretty much a given (we eat too much for our own health anyway) but for the rest everything is open.

For example the report calls for a lot of electricity generation, coupled with hydrogen use. To me, that means a very large increase in water vapor generation, are we sure that's a good idea ?

The main goal of any plan should be to consume much less energy, not just to shift from fossil to something else.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
bennett123
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:25 pm

As you say, they do not got into details.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:56 pm

Pretty unscientific conclusion given that we have the technology to do so already - there is just no large scale infrastructure for biofuels and vertical indoor agriculture.
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tommy1808
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:19 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Pretty unscientific conclusion given that we have the technology to do so already - there is just no large scale infrastructure for biofuels and vertical indoor agriculture.


Vertical farming is, from an energy efficient perspective, top notch waste.

bennett123 wrote:
As you say, they do not got into details.


And some stuff they simply don't process....

Keeping coal fired plants running for 10~20 years, and directly invest in renewables, may turn out better in CO2 total output overall than coal -> gas -> renewable....
Like all things there is an optimum point even there.

Same with doing the transition in a way that keeps the economy alive, because the money for it needs to be earned too.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Redd
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:23 am

uta999 wrote:
Climate change:

The UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050, unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely, a report says.

But it warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle.

The report challenges the views of campaign group Extinction Rebellion.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51804212

BBC News

Unfortunately, getting people to change their lifestyles is not easy. People in general are all for positive change, as long as it requires little to no effort on their part.
 
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Aesma
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:52 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Pretty unscientific conclusion given that we have the technology to do so already - there is just no large scale infrastructure for biofuels and vertical indoor agriculture.


Vertical farming is, from an energy efficient perspective, top notch waste.

bennett123 wrote:
As you say, they do not got into details.


And some stuff they simply don't process....

Keeping coal fired plants running for 10~20 years, and directly invest in renewables, may turn out better in CO2 total output overall than coal -> gas -> renewable....
Like all things there is an optimum point even there.

Same with doing the transition in a way that keeps the economy alive, because the money for it needs to be earned too.

Best regards
Thomas


What should have been kept in Germany is nuclear not coal.

I don't understand how "greens" are OK with the utter destruction caused by lignite mining over there.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
tommy1808
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:09 pm

Aesma wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Pretty unscientific conclusion given that we have the technology to do so already - there is just no large scale infrastructure for biofuels and vertical indoor agriculture.


Vertical farming is, from an energy efficient perspective, top notch waste.

bennett123 wrote:
As you say, they do not got into details.


And some stuff they simply don't process....

Keeping coal fired plants running for 10~20 years, and directly invest in renewables, may turn out better in CO2 total output overall than coal -> gas -> renewable....
Like all things there is an optimum point even there.

Same with doing the transition in a way that keeps the economy alive, because the money for it needs to be earned too.

Best regards
Thomas


What should have been kept in Germany is nuclear not coal.


Oh, i am all for Molten Salt or Lead Dual Fluid reactors... lots of energy and the opportunity to burn down existing waste to manageable levels, while being able to build those to be inherently safe...

But turning a single Nuclear Power plant on before waste storage is done and dusted should be considered a crime. On top of that they are noncompetitive and the money invested in keeping them running and finding waste disposal sites is better invested in renewable

I don't understand how "greens" are OK with the utter destruction caused by lignite mining over there.


Well, they are not. They are not currently the government. Getting out of it asap is the majority position, so there is some powerful lobbying involved (and bilateral investment treaties).

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
noviorbis77
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:46 pm

uta999 wrote:
Climate change:

The UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050, unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely, a report says.

But it warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle.

The report challenges the views of campaign group Extinction Rebellion.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51804212

BBC News


That is correct.

There is no public willingness to sacrifice to get us to net zero by 2050.

It would mean everyone being vegan, no more flights and few private vehicles, compared to the 37 million we have on the roads at the moment.

There are some people who demand the government act whether the public by and large want it or not, but we live in a democracy and any elected government knows that unpopular decisions will see elections lost (or worst - see how yellow vest protests in France started).

Today we had a good budget. Fuel duty and lots of infrastructure projects, including billions on new roads.
 
tommy1808
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:28 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Climate change:

The UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050, unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely, a report says.

But it warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle.

The report challenges the views of campaign group Extinction Rebellion.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51804212

BBC News


That is correct.

There is no public willingness to sacrifice to get us to net zero by 2050.

It would mean everyone being vegan, no more flights and few private vehicles, compared to the 37 million we have on the roads at the moment.


since you don´t need to go absolute zero, but only net-zero, that is simply Bullshit. Flying and fueling would just be a little more expensive, to the tune of ~10% ticket price if i check over the last couple of my flights. And that is with extremely low oil prices, which are in part a result of decarbonizing economic activity. So, in a sense, you get that for free.... the fossil fuel industry understands this is a thread to their profits via depressed prices, that is why they spend billions on promoting bs like "it is not affordable and you need to give up everything you like".

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
noviorbis77
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:08 am

tommy1808 wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
uta999 wrote:
Climate change:

The UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050, unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely, a report says.

But it warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle.

The report challenges the views of campaign group Extinction Rebellion.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51804212

BBC News


That is correct.

There is no public willingness to sacrifice to get us to net zero by 2050.

It would mean everyone being vegan, no more flights and few private vehicles, compared to the 37 million we have on the roads at the moment.


since you don´t need to go absolute zero, but only net-zero, that is simply Bullshit. Flying and fueling would just be a little more expensive, to the tune of ~10% ticket price if i check over the last couple of my flights. And that is with extremely low oil prices, which are in part a result of decarbonizing economic activity. So, in a sense, you get that for free.... the fossil fuel industry understands this is a thread to their profits via depressed prices, that is why they spend billions on promoting bs like "it is not affordable and you need to give up everything you like".

best regards
Thomas



Do you know what life on 1-2 tonnes of Carbon per year would be like.
 
M564038
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:10 am

The next few weeks will see some pretty spectacular cuts in emissions, so if we just keep it up..
 
tommy1808
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:21 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:

That is correct.

There is no public willingness to sacrifice to get us to net zero by 2050.

It would mean everyone being vegan, no more flights and few private vehicles, compared to the 37 million we have on the roads at the moment.


since you don´t need to go absolute zero, but only net-zero, that is simply Bullshit. Flying and fueling would just be a little more expensive, to the tune of ~10% ticket price if i check over the last couple of my flights. And that is with extremely low oil prices, which are in part a result of decarbonizing economic activity. So, in a sense, you get that for free.... the fossil fuel industry understands this is a thread to their profits via depressed prices, that is why they spend billions on promoting bs like "it is not affordable and you need to give up everything you like".

best regards
Thomas



Do you know what life on 1-2 tonnes of Carbon per year would be like.


Having been net-zero for years i'd say about the same as today...

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
noviorbis77
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:08 am

tommy1808 wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:

since you don´t need to go absolute zero, but only net-zero, that is simply Bullshit. Flying and fueling would just be a little more expensive, to the tune of ~10% ticket price if i check over the last couple of my flights. And that is with extremely low oil prices, which are in part a result of decarbonizing economic activity. So, in a sense, you get that for free.... the fossil fuel industry understands this is a thread to their profits via depressed prices, that is why they spend billions on promoting bs like "it is not affordable and you need to give up everything you like".

best regards
Thomas



Do you know what life on 1-2 tonnes of Carbon per year would be like.


Having been net-zero for years i'd say about the same as today...

Best regards
Thomas


Can you care to build on that?

Do you eat meat every day?
Do you drive an ICE vehicle?
How many short and long-haul flights do you take each year?

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/16/uk/n ... index.html
 
M564038
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:21 am

I have stopped earing meat, I do not drive a fossile vehicle, I drive an EV on solely hydro and solar power, we recycle, everything, we have more or less stopped flying privately, (although I am not sure aerospace even has a negative carbon footprint due to technology and aerodynamics knowledge sharing.)
We aren’t climate neutral but we are way, way below average and we have not taken a comfort hit.
 
tommy1808
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:45 am

noviorbis77 wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
noviorbis77 wrote:


Do you know what life on 1-2 tonnes of Carbon per year would be like.


Having been net-zero for years i'd say about the same as today...

Best regards
Thomas


Can you care to build on that?

Do you eat meat every day?


Flexitarian, so one or two Steaks per year...

Do you drive an ICE vehicle?


Diesel company car, by employer compensates all fuel and business related flying via CDM Gold standard according to the Kyoto protocol. New company cars are either plug in hybrids or BEV, but I still have to drive mine for a couple of month.

How many short and long-haul flights do you take each year?


Short? Pretty much none, longhaul about 6 to 8, most for business. Those are compensated by my employer, my private flying by myself.

Looks like that when its done, this was 125 €

Image

Since energy companies have to tell you how carbon intensive they are, you can do that precisely as well, for the not easy to measure stuff I compensate the average CO2 emission/person.

M564038 wrote:
flying privately


For family reasons I don't really have that option, but once that some people do stop..

We aren’t climate neutral but we are way, way below average and we have not taken a comfort hit.


Exactly.. you can reduce carbon footprint a lot, and the rest you can effectively compensate since there are still plenty of low hanging fruits to pick, that as a side effect improve the quality of life where they are picked*. That will change, but by the time it does there should be more ways to cut CO2.

Best regards
Thomas

*actually enough that CO2 compensations via that way are tax deductible as charitable donations
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Sokes
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:33 pm

Aesma wrote:
[

What should have been kept in Germany is nuclear not coal.

I don't understand how "greens" are OK with the utter destruction caused by lignite mining over there.


I believe when the green party was in power their main aim was to commercialize solar cells. That was expensive. Domestic electricity consumer still have to pay quite a lot. At least lignite electricity is cheap.
I believe Germany is among the highest CO2 emitter per capita in the world. I don't mind Germany keeps this position provided we find ourself a new field of expenses that finances research in new technology. Maybe H2, maybe HVDC, maybe electric cars.

You are still right. I can accept for some years CO2 from hard coal plants, as they help to regulate electricity supply. Base load lignite can't be regulated and is therefore the natural enemy of renewable energy.
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tommy1808
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:48 am

Sokes wrote:
Aesma wrote:
[

What should have been kept in Germany is nuclear not coal.

I don't understand how "greens" are OK with the utter destruction caused by lignite mining over there.


I believe Germany is among the highest CO2 emitter per capita in the world.


Inland CO2 emissions per Capita, yes, consumption related CO2 emissions globally, no. In that regard other "beat" us by a factor of 4 or so. Heck, even abundant hydropower Switzerland has more than us (40%ish) and the likewise hydro dreamland/BEV leader Norway is just about 10% better.

But yes, lignite needs to go quick.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Sokes
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:47 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Inland CO2 emissions per Capita, yes, consumption related CO2 emissions globally, no. In that regard other "beat" us by a factor of 4 or so. Heck, even abundant hydropower Switzerland has more than us (40%ish) and the likewise hydro dreamland/BEV leader Norway is just about 10% better.

But yes, lignite needs to go quick.

Best regards
Thomas


I don't understand what you mean.
I know France in winter imports a lot of electricity from Germany. German renewables for German consumption, German lignite for French consumption?
Electricity is only 1/3 of primary energy use. Is Switzerland heating their houses with oil and Germany with gas?
Mind to expand about Norway? Is Norway's oil industry a big CO2 emitter or what do you mean?
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tommy1808
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:12 am

Sokes wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Inland CO2 emissions per Capita, yes, consumption related CO2 emissions globally, no. In that regard other "beat" us by a factor of 4 or so. Heck, even abundant hydropower Switzerland has more than us (40%ish) and the likewise hydro dreamland/BEV leader Norway is just about 10% better.

But yes, lignite needs to go quick.

Best regards
Thomas


I don't understand what you mean.
I know France in winter imports a lot of electricity from Germany. German renewables for German consumption, German lignite for French consumption?
Electricity is only 1/3 of primary energy use. Is Switzerland heating their houses with oil and Germany with gas?
Mind to expand about Norway? Is Norway's oil industry a big CO2 emitter or what do you mean?


there are two ways of looking at CO2 in a country:

- how much is emitted in that country
- how much CO2 is embodied in what is consumed in that country (domestic energy and product consumption plus what was used to make the imports minus what was used for the exports)

Germany is fairly high on the first, like all countries with lots of manufacturing and exports, but mid-range in the latter.

Shifting your heavy industry and other CO2 intensive stuff to China for example is awesome for your domestic CO2 production to drop, but may actually increase total CO2 emissions caused by people living in the now more import oriented nation.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Aesma
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:32 am

France doesn't import a lot of electricity, less than 1% of production during the worst month, and is a net exporter overall.

Some winters for a few days are bad, especially when more nuclear reactors than usual are undergoing maintenance, but even then most of the difference is made up with French fossil fuel plants.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Sokes
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:41 am

tommy1808 wrote:
there are two ways of looking at CO2 in a country:

- how much is emitted in that country
- how much CO2 is embodied in what is consumed in that country (domestic energy and product consumption plus what was used to make the imports minus what was used for the exports)


Norway produces aluminium for export with water power. If that goes in the calculation I doubt Norway can be anything, but a good example.
Does your source add the CO2 from burning Norway's exported oil to Norway's CO2 account?

Germany produces a lot of renewable electricity, but also a lot of lignite electricity. As lignite is base load I would add lignite CO2 to the German calculation.
When Germany exports excess renewable electricity hard coal plants somewhere in Europe have to shut down. Therefore I tend to give the credit for renewable electricity rather to whoever shuts down it's hard coal plant. Or maybe Germany and that country can share the carbon credit 50/ 50.

The exports should help Germany a lot in the calculation.
I don't understand the calculation you refer to, but because of Norway and Switzerland I tend to not believe it.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
tommy1808
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:00 am

Sokes wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
there are two ways of looking at CO2 in a country:

- how much is emitted in that country
- how much CO2 is embodied in what is consumed in that country (domestic energy and product consumption plus what was used to make the imports minus what was used for the exports)


Norway produces aluminium for export with water power. If that goes in the calculation I doubt Norway can be anything, but a good example.
Does your source add the CO2 from burning Norway's exported oil to Norway's CO2 account?


Yes, it assigned the CO2 to the country where it is consumed, whether directly via burning imports or indirectly by products embodied CO2.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenho ... accounting

This way of accounting isn't perfect either, for exported aluminium Norway doesn't see a benefit, the country where it is used gets it, but is attributed the CO2 embodied in its imports.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Sokes
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:06 am

Aesma wrote:
France doesn't import a lot of electricity, less than 1% of production during the worst month, and is a net exporter overall.

Some winters for a few days are bad, especially when more nuclear reactors than usual are undergoing maintenance, but even then most of the difference is made up with French fossil fuel plants.


You are right. Somewhere I read that France in winter needs German electricity. It probably referred to the few hours a year you mentioned, but was expressed in such a way that I came to my faulty knowledge.
Another possibility is that Germany exports to France and France at the same time to Spain. While France may still be a net exporter, for Germany it's an importer. I'm just assuming.

Here a graph that shows imports/ exports in percentage of demand over one year.
Image
source: https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/featur ... rt-france/

Great Britain, Denmark, Spain, Portugal have high renewable potential. They are net importers of electricity.
Germany and France don't have that high potential. They are exporters.
That seems strange.

Do you know if French nuclear power stations can follow the load, or at least regulate down to 50% or so? I think in Germany nuclear is base load.
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Jetty
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:32 pm

The UK managed to go Corbyn-neutral by 2020, they should be able to go carbon neutral by 2050 as well.
 
olle
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:36 pm

In 10 years we will need much more energy when transport sector go electric. In the same time many private consumers with houses will become net producers.
 
M564038
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:52 pm

olle wrote:
In 10 years we will need much more energy when transport sector go electric. In the same time many private consumers with houses will become net producers.


The extra energy needed to electrify the transport sector isn’t really that much.
Make everyone use LED-lighting, and it is more than fixed.
 
Sokes
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:24 pm

M564038 wrote:
olle wrote:
In 10 years we will need much more energy when transport sector go electric. In the same time many private consumers with houses will become net producers.


The extra energy needed to electrify the transport sector isn’t really that much.
Make everyone use LED-lighting, and it is more than fixed.


Image
https://foroalfa.org/en/articles/some-ideas-are-too-big
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Aesma
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:41 pm

Sokes : Portugal has already a lot of renewable production, they probably import when there is no wind. France has a lot of potential there too, especially with offshore wind turbines, however it takes a lot of time here for such projects to become reality, with NIMBYs and regulations interfering. Nuclear reactors can be regulated but it's best avoided as you lose efficiency, what happens if there is too much production is that hydro power is cut, and if necessary excess electricity is used to pump water back into the reservoirs.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Sokes
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:20 pm

Aesma wrote:
... France has a lot of potential there too, especially with offshore wind turbines, however it takes a lot of time here for such projects to become reality


When I read news of wind turbine manufacturers, the turbines sold to France usually had long blades for the generator. IIRC it was mostly for wind sites below 7m/s, but correct me if I'm wrong. But offshore is anyway more reliable and if you got potential there it's better.
Wiki has a map which also helps me come back to topic. I don't know how deep offshore turbines go. I assume the "less than 50 m" light blue color gives a good idea where wind turbines are possible.

Image
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Biscay
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Aesma
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:39 pm

With floating turbines you can go to depths of 300m or more.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Sokes
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Re: UK 'can't go climate neutral before 2050'

Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:14 am

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