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qf789
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Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:57 pm

For the time being this thread will run on a monthly basis. Please add your comments below

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1438989&p=22124351#p22124351
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tommy1808
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:37 pm

JJJ wrote:
And that assumes you can somehow get a representative sample when you know for sure there are substantial geographic differences.


yeah.. that is the optimum case sample size, which we obvious don´t have. Plus the myriads of other problems to get clean data out of that, as this is moving fast and you can´t do all tests at one point in time.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:42 pm

Just a bit of defense of those bastards buying the groceries bins bare. I cook from scratch two meals a day, relatively huge amounts of veggies (make up for that by lots of meat). Normally I have enough in the fridge for 2-4 days of veggies. I now shop once a week, and finding it hard to keep waste the same as before. Some tomatoes behave, some don't. Lettuce is a particular bad behaver. Some celery lasts, some doesn't. Cabbage family probably is the most reliable. Et cetera. Someone doing this for the first time is going to make a lot of mistakes, and have to throw away quite a bit. Also it takes a fair amount of trial and error to cook veggies so that you and other really like them.
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pune
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:28 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Just a bit of defense of those bastards buying the groceries bins bare. I cook from scratch two meals a day, relatively huge amounts of veggies (make up for that by lots of meat). Normally I have enough in the fridge for 2-4 days of veggies. I now shop once a week, and finding it hard to keep waste the same as before. Some tomatoes behave, some don't. Lettuce is a particular bad behaver. Some celery lasts, some doesn't. Cabbage family probably is the most reliable. Et cetera. Someone doing this for the first time is going to make a lot of mistakes, and have to throw away quite a bit. Also it takes a fair amount of trial and error to cook veggies so that you and other really like them.


You are lucky you have a fridge that can take a week's supply. I guess it all depends. Here, I cook everyday (how else to pass the time as well) and anyways can store veggies for 2-3 days at most. I believe most Indians live like that. Of course, after this is lifted, perhaps a few people would look into getting bigger fridges but that will only happen if we think this is going to be a persistent thing/affair. As it is, the Indian economy has not been doing well last few years so people have been saving instead of spending on investing in assets like bigger fridges etc. In fact, even smartphones which used to have double-digit growth every year, some years going to even 20% this year will be only 5% . Apart from the cooking fallout as you have shared, there will be a huge economic fallout for which I guess nobody is prepared. I do hope this pandemic does drive countries to have better healthcare for their citizens but that will only be known in due course.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:33 pm

A study places the mortality rate of COVID-19 at 0.66%


Findings
Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9–28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56–3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23–1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27–0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7–7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2–15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4–3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8–11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0–7·6) in those aged 80 years or olde


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
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Kiwirob
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:40 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
A study places the mortality rate of COVID-19 at 0.66%


Findings
Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9–28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56–3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23–1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27–0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7–7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2–15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4–3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8–11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0–7·6) in those aged 80 years or olde


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext


give up mate, you've already dug a really deep hole for yourself, it's time you stopped digging.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:45 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
A study places the mortality rate of COVID-19 at 0.66%


Findings
Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9–28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56–3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23–1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27–0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7–7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2–15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4–3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8–11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0–7·6) in those aged 80 years or olde


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext


give up mate, you've already dug a really deep hole for yourself, it's time you stopped digging.


Maybe someone can draw him a picture to explain the difference between overloaded health care system and those that can still cope.

Best regards
Thomas
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:03 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
A study places the mortality rate of COVID-19 at 0.66%


Findings
Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9–28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56–3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23–1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27–0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7–7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2–15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4–3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8–11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0–7·6) in those aged 80 years or olde


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext


One study - oh yes - the ‘ol Texas sharpshooter fallacy.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:10 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
A study places the mortality rate of COVID-19 at 0.66%


Findings
Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9–28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56–3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23–1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27–0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7–7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2–15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4–3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8–11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0–7·6) in those aged 80 years or olde


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext


One study - oh yes - the ‘ol Texas sharpshooter fallacy.


You do have another study to prove the contrary?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:11 pm

Kiwirob wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
A study places the mortality rate of COVID-19 at 0.66%


Findings
Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9–28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56–3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23–1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27–0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7–7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2–15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4–3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8–11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0–7·6) in those aged 80 years or olde


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext


give up mate, you've already dug a really deep hole for yourself, it's time you stopped digging.


Sorry to bust the echo chamber..
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:14 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:


One study - oh yes - the ‘ol Texas sharpshooter fallacy.


You do have another study to prove the contrary?


Mmm that’s not how scientific papers work, exactly. What is your analysis of your paper’s potential flaws in methodology and source material?

Oh I know, here’s a paper explaining why this kind of study is incredibly difficult right now:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 73-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext

Next.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:16 pm

I don't think he understands the difference between "infection fatality ratio" and "case fatality ratio". Like any flu, there are millions that get it, get infected. and have no clue, exhibit no serious symptoms. Then there are those who "get the flu" you see these people and they are noticeable and know they have something, these are "cases". And not all of these people go to the doctor etc but they can be identified and tracked. And that is how we get our "flu numbers" each year.

The "case mortality ratio" is much higher than the "infection fatality ratio" for any disease. You need to know which numbers you are comparing.
The seasonal flu’s death rate case mortality rate or ratio is around 0.1%

Tugg
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seahawk
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:22 pm

And you need reliable data. China´s is not.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:33 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

One study - oh yes - the ‘ol Texas sharpshooter fallacy.


You do have another study to prove the contrary?


Mmm that’s not how scientific papers work, exactly. What is your analysis of your paper’s potential flaws in methodology and source material?

Oh I know, here’s a paper explaining why this kind of study is incredibly difficult right now:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 73-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext

Next.


So on what EXACTLY are we basing everything we are doing right now? on which studies?

I only bring up this study not because it says it has a low mortality rate, but because I have yet to see one that comes up with a mortality rate all. If you have another please post.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:35 pm

So with a bit of digging (for you know, research, to find actual information):
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5935243/
Findings

EMR-contributing countries represented 57% of the global population. The estimated mean annual influenza-associated respiratory EMR ranged from 0·1 to 6·4 per 100 000 individuals for people younger than 65 years, 2·9 to 44·0 per 100 000 individuals for people aged between 65 and 74 years, and 17·9 to 223·5 per 100 000 for people older than 75 years. We estimated that 291 243–645 832 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths (4·0–8·8 per 100 000 individuals) occur annually. The highest mortality rates were estimated in sub-Saharan Africa (2·8–16·5 per 100 000 individuals), southeast Asia (3·5–9·2 per 100 000 individuals), and among people aged 75 years or older (51·3–99·4 per 100 000 individuals). For 92 countries, we estimated that among children younger than 5 years, 9243–105 690 influenza-associated respiratory deaths occur annually.


To simplify:
"We estimated that 291 243–645 832 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths (4·0–8·8 per 100 000 individuals) occur annually."
That is an infection mortality rate of 0.000088 (8.8 divided by 100,000).

And for the sake of clarity, 0.66 is in fact a lot higher than 0.000088
Hope this helps.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:39 pm

Tugger wrote:
So with a bit of digging (for you know, research, to find actual information):
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5935243/
Findings

EMR-contributing countries represented 57% of the global population. The estimated mean annual influenza-associated respiratory EMR ranged from 0·1 to 6·4 per 100 000 individuals for people younger than 65 years, 2·9 to 44·0 per 100 000 individuals for people aged between 65 and 74 years, and 17·9 to 223·5 per 100 000 for people older than 75 years. We estimated that 291 243–645 832 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths (4·0–8·8 per 100 000 individuals) occur annually. The highest mortality rates were estimated in sub-Saharan Africa (2·8–16·5 per 100 000 individuals), southeast Asia (3·5–9·2 per 100 000 individuals), and among people aged 75 years or older (51·3–99·4 per 100 000 individuals). For 92 countries, we estimated that among children younger than 5 years, 9243–105 690 influenza-associated respiratory deaths occur annually.


To simplify:
"We estimated that 291 243–645 832 seasonal influenza-associated respiratory deaths (4·0–8·8 per 100 000 individuals) occur annually."
That is an infection mortality rate of 0.000088 (8.8 divided by 100,000).

And for the sake of clarity, 0.66 is in fact a lot higher than 0.000088
Hope this helps.

Tugg


I am not minimizing this virus in no shape or form, I believe this virus is far more lethal than the common flu. The 0.66 is still a high number, reason I posted this here is because this is the coronavirus thread, and it was a study on the coronavirus.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:42 pm

AirWorthy99, how do you magically post in here without actually being in the forum? (Hint: I know how you do... has to do with bots and web tools to keep people advised of multiple websites and threads they are managing. To quote Pink Floyd: Welcome my son, welcome to the machine; Where have you been? It's alright, we know where you've been;)

And yes, you are trying to minimize it per your multiple dozens of posts claiming that everyone is overreacting and posting to show "facts" that they are.

Also, to medical professionals out there, I realize I do need a bit more information so I better understand: Is a "case" someone seen by a doctor, recorded somewhere by the medical system, or is it just someone exhibiting symptoms? I have seen both in my search for information. Any help is appreciated.

Tugg
Last edited by Tugger on Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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sebolino
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:59 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:


One study - oh yes - the ‘ol Texas sharpshooter fallacy.


You do have another study to prove the contrary?


I made a post which predicted that you would react this way, but it was deleted ... I hope this one won't, but I will not enter in a useless debate with you, so I won't answer your predictable next posts.

You think this virus is no big deal, and that the US are doing well because the private industry is well ... private, ok, so be it, even if the facts say the opposite, you may think what you want.
Only one thing, which I think is important: you're talking about the danger of this virus in terms of death, because you still don't understand the problem. But if you go to intensive care during 2 or 3 weeks and you survive, like many people did, you won't say the same. And I'm not speaking about the hell lived by medical staff in the hospitals.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:05 pm

sebolino wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

You think this virus is no big deal, and that the US are doing well because the private industry is well ... private, ok, so be it, even if the facts say the opposite, you may think what you want.
Only one thing, which I think is important: you're talking about the danger of this virus in terms of death, because you still don't understand the problem. But if you go to intensive care during 2 or 3 weeks and you survive, like many people did, you won't say the same. And I'm not speaking about the hell lived by medical staff in the hospitals.


Where have I said its no big deal? Haven't said such thing. I have questioned the destruction of millions of lives with their loss of jobs over this, but never have I said this is no big deal. One of the worse things of arguing and discussing is how you can twist the words of the opposite side against him, as you have now. You posting the development of a temporary hospital in NY is your proof that things are bad, in France they have made also hospitals, they are building those types of hospitals everywhere. The video you posted and wanted to play GOTCHA with me, I saw it, there is nothing out of the ordinary other than a busy hospital.

And I said this many times, I am sure things might get worse, I haven't said they won't. Don't know why you keep obsessing about the US, you over there have got serious issues to resolve. If I am happy with private industry in the US, I might have my reasons, whilst you might have yours for your public and government entities in your country. That's why we have different countries.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
N212R
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:02 pm

Guess I'll ask Ms. Jouhou again....

Do you believe the SARS-CoV-2 virus was transmitted via a pangolin host?

You stated in your opening post of Jan. 14, "The cases all originate at a seafood market."

On what did you base that declaratory statement?
 
art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:31 pm

@N212R Why do you ask?
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:34 pm

Interesting article that posit's that maybe Covid-19 moved through human hosts longer than we imagined.

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-new-co ... -for-years

The second scenario is that the new coronavirus crossed from animals into humans before it became capable of causing human disease," director of the National Institute of Health, Francis Collins explains on the NIH blog.

"Then, as a result of gradual evolutionary changes over years or perhaps decades, the vir
us eventually gained the ability to spread from human-to-human and cause serious, often life-threatening disease."

This is pulled from a blog at the NIH.

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/03/2 ... -covid-19/


Either the virus mutated from Bats or Pangolins, or it has been in Humans for years mutating, but at the end of the day it would seem there is little chance this was a lab engineered disease.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
N212R
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:50 pm

art wrote:
@N212R Why do you ask?


There has been, of yet, NO verifiable scientific data to substantiate the received idea that the receptor host for the transmission of SARS CoV-2 was an animal, ie a pangolin. I'm not a scientist, so please disabuse me if I'm wrong.

As Ms. Jouhou was the first "reporter" on the Anet scene, I figured she would have a knowledgeable opinion on that question.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:51 pm

N212R wrote:
Guess I'll ask Ms. Jouhou again....

Do you believe the SARS-CoV-2 virus was transmitted via a pangolin host?

You stated in your opening post of Jan. 14, "The cases all originate at a seafood market."

On what did you base that declaratory statement?



What does where the cases all originated have to do with a Pangolin host? Are you trolling or trying to play jump to conclusions?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
N212R
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:03 pm

Glad you agree the issue in question is befitting of a definite conclusion. Some run, some jump, some dissimulate but a man's reach should still exceed his grasp or what's a heaven for?
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:08 pm

N212R wrote:
Glad you agree the issue in question is befitting of a definite conclusion. Some run, some jump, some dissimulate but a man's reach should still exceed his grasp or what's a heaven for?

Are you a troll or just ignorant of the question posed?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
N212R
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:16 pm

casinterest wrote:
Are you a troll or just ignorant of the question posed?


Are you a repeater of tired tropes or just having a particularly creative morning?
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:22 pm

N212R wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Are you a troll or just ignorant of the question posed?


Are you a repeater of tired tropes or just having a particularly creative morning?


You are seriously digging up things from January, when informations are still being hidden by the Chinese authority?

Oh, and just bc Jouhou actually start the thread as many were barely paying attention? News were circulating since late December, but I guess since it is China nobody cares?

Seriously, you are just trolling, period.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:25 pm

N212R wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Are you a troll or just ignorant of the question posed?


Are you a repeater of tired tropes or just having a particularly creative morning?


Still avoiding the question right? You are actively tolling with unrelated information in your previous question, and it really has no bearing on what or how the virus is affecting society or how real scientists are investigating how it got started.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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par13del
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:15 pm

If China is not a reliable source of data, does a reliable media house give them credibility, or does the media house believe that China data is accurate?
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52101615
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:01 pm

Today is worse than yesterday, but luckily the past few days the virus has not spread much. Thanks in part to social distancing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I do worry though that there will be under reported spread in poverty stricken areas of most countries. This is where i think social distancing has a high chance of failing .

Brazil, The Philippines, and India will be interesting to watch over the next few weeks to see if they can keep the virus at bay.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:16 pm

The key task and measure of any success will be, for regions that have gone thorough the initial COVID-19 infection, how do they manage and prevent a reinfection cycle from impacting them a second time.

My guess is that once PPE production gets up to much higher sustainable levels, and the medical services are able to manage the case load, the public will be required/asked to wear protective shields while out and about in public, until the vaccine arrive and is widely available.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:18 pm

I fear for refugees in camps. The outlook for them looks bleak to me. Same for people in the favelas of South America, the shantytowns of Africa, the slums of India, anywhere where a lot of people are crammed together in poor conditions. Being a prisoner is very risky, too.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:17 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
The video you posted and wanted to play GOTCHA with me, I saw it, there is nothing out of the ordinary other than a busy hospital.


One of the worst things about arguing and discussing is there’s always that guy with limited sources who believes he knows best. You say nothing is going on other than ‘busy hospitals’ - but medical professionals are interviewing and tweeting *every day* about conditions on the ground and you have ignored them, discounting what’s going on as ‘just another day in a busy hospital’. Yeah, nah. We’ll take their word over yours.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:30 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The video you posted and wanted to play GOTCHA with me, I saw it, there is nothing out of the ordinary other than a busy hospital.


One of the worst things about arguing and discussing is there’s always that guy with limited sources who believes he knows best. You say nothing is going on other than ‘busy hospitals’ - but medical professionals are interviewing and tweeting *every day* about conditions on the ground and you have ignored them, discounting what’s going on as ‘just another day in a busy hospital’. Yeah, nah. We’ll take their word over yours.


I don't know best, but if you have had the misfortune I had of having to spent hours in hospitals even days, when there is no pandemic, you will know why I think its just a 'busy' hospital.

As of this morning, thankfully NY had 11,000 of its beds with COVID19 patients, out of the normal 53,000 beds. They have reduced their projections and they don't believe they will need the amount of beds they were expecting, now they see the number of infected and patients double every 6 days, when they sounded the alarm they thought that they needed a 100,000 more. It may seem they might not need that according to NY officials. I think if this is true is good news. I am happy NY has prepared very well for this. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/nyre ... e=Homepage
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:42 pm

Finally, Dr.Fauci and President Trump now recommending the public to use something to cover the nose and mouth, like scarf or bandana.
Dr. Fauci even said if masks were not in short supply for medical pros, he would be inclined to recommend for public use.

Where are all the experts recommending it is bad?
All posts are just opinions.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:45 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Finally, Dr.Fauci and President Trump now recommending the public to use something to cover the nose and mouth, like scarf or bandana.
Dr. Fauci even said if masks were not in short supply for medical pros, he would be inclined to recommend for public use.

Where are all the experts recommending it is bad?


Yes, the 'experts' told us in the beginning that they wouldn't help. Turns out it would. I wonder what else are the 'experts' wrong on and told us lies about. Because it turns out they were lies.

But no, we can't question the 'experts' at all.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:08 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The video you posted and wanted to play GOTCHA with me, I saw it, there is nothing out of the ordinary other than a busy hospital.


One of the worst things about arguing and discussing is there’s always that guy with limited sources who believes he knows best. You say nothing is going on other than ‘busy hospitals’ - but medical professionals are interviewing and tweeting *every day* about conditions on the ground and you have ignored them, discounting what’s going on as ‘just another day in a busy hospital’. Yeah, nah. We’ll take their word over yours.


I don't know best, but if you have had the misfortune I had of having to spent hours in hospitals even days, when there is no pandemic, you will know why I think its just a 'busy' hospital.

As of this morning, thankfully NY had 11,000 of its beds with COVID19 patients, out of the normal 53,000 beds. They have reduced their projections and they don't believe they will need the amount of beds they were expecting, now they see the number of infected and patients double every 6 days, when they sounded the alarm they thought that they needed a 100,000 more. It may seem they might not need that according to NY officials. I think if this is true is good news. I am happy NY has prepared very well for this. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/nyre ... e=Homepage


And he quotes the NYT as a reliable source, hey hey, the suids can fly now and then.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
PPVRA
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:08 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Finally, Dr.Fauci and President Trump now recommending the public to use something to cover the nose and mouth, like scarf or bandana.
Dr. Fauci even said if masks were not in short supply for medical pros, he would be inclined to recommend for public use.

Where are all the experts recommending it is bad?


Is the WHO recommending this yet? I don't think they did, either.

Not trying to defend anyone. I get that asking people not to buy masks unnecessarily is a good thing, but that doesn't mean they should tell people bad information.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
NYCVIE
Posts: 235
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:13 pm

Dr. Fauci and Trump said during the press conference the US is predicting between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the US with maintenance of the current social distancing policies.
 
Derico
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:45 pm

art wrote:
I fear for refugees in camps. The outlook for them looks bleak to me. Same for people in the favelas of South America, the shantytowns of Africa, the slums of India, anywhere where a lot of people are crammed together in poor conditions. Being a prisoner is very risky, too.


It is too much of a coincidence that in none of the strictly tropical areas of the world, Southeast Asia, Africa, India, Tropical South America, Caribbean, there has been not a single region of "major" epicentral outbreak, after several months of this illness circulating. Nor has there been an explosion in cases yet in Australia, South Africa, or Argentina, which have been in their hot summer months.

I think it is relatively conclusive that the virus survives far less in the air and on surfaces in temperatures about 19C and in particular 23C. Some people may claim it is too early but I think not. All the major outbreaks are north of parallel 30 on the winter side, without a single exception, that includes China.

This those not mean the virus does and will not spread in hot climates and eventually still circulate the population, but its seems clear it will do so at a slower rate. That could be great news to avoid a devastating peak.

You hear absolutely no news out of South Amerca, because they actually have done a great job even if it is not being recognized internationally. I there say a much better job than most European countries.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:49 pm

PPVRA wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Finally, Dr.Fauci and President Trump now recommending the public to use something to cover the nose and mouth, like scarf or bandana.
Dr. Fauci even said if masks were not in short supply for medical pros, he would be inclined to recommend for public use.

Where are all the experts recommending it is bad?


Is the WHO recommending this yet? I don't think they did, either.

Not trying to defend anyone. I get that asking people not to buy masks unnecessarily is a good thing, but that doesn't mean they should tell people bad information.


As of this morning, the WHO reiterated mask will not be of help to the public unless you are sick or caring for a sick.

Again no one is suggesting to buy N95 or surgical masks, there are none available. Use bandana or scarf, even eye mask, handkerchief any piece of cloth. Cover your nose.

My non-scientific tinfoil commonsense theory

Six feet distance rule works only if no one is moving, which is not true in a public place.
COVID19 can be airborne for 3 hours, which means others can breathe in.
Just because there is no physical human within six feet, doesn't mean a virus shedded by a human is not.
Last edited by dtw2hyd on Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
All posts are just opinions.
 
speedking
Posts: 128
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:00 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:01 am

Derico wrote:
art wrote:
I fear for refugees in camps. The outlook for them looks bleak to me. Same for people in the favelas of South America, the shantytowns of Africa, the slums of India, anywhere where a lot of people are crammed together in poor conditions. Being a prisoner is very risky, too.


It is too much of a coincidence that in none of the strictly tropical areas of the world, Southeast Asia, Africa, India, Tropical South America, Caribbean, there has been not a single region of "major" epicentral outbreak, after several months of this illness circulating. Nor has there been an explosion in cases yet in Australia, South Africa, or Argentina, which have been in their hot summer months.

I think it is relatively conclusive that the virus survives far less in the air and on surfaces in temperatures about 19C and in particular 23C. Some people may claim it is too early but I think not. All the major outbreaks are north of parallel 30 on the winter side, without a single exception, that includes China.

This those not mean the virus does and will not spread in hot climates and eventually still circulate the population, but its seems clear it will do so at a slower rate. That could be great news to avoid a devastating peak.

You hear absolutely no news out of South Amerca, because they actually have done a great job even if it is not being recognized internationally. I there say a much better job than most European countries.


Don't trust the governments or news media. Search for the information yourself. Critical thinking 101.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/brazil/
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:05 am

Be sure and read the Comments...

Why clerks won't bag your reusable tote at Safeway, other stores any more

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/articleC ... 167508.php

Personally, I go to the self checkout for now. I cannot count the number of times I have had to explain to the bagger how to load the bananas on top or just in their own bag vs. on the bottom, below canned food items.
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
Derico
Posts: 4387
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:05 am

speedking wrote:
Derico wrote:
art wrote:
I fear for refugees in camps. The outlook for them looks bleak to me. Same for people in the favelas of South America, the shantytowns of Africa, the slums of India, anywhere where a lot of people are crammed together in poor conditions. Being a prisoner is very risky, too.


It is too much of a coincidence that in none of the strictly tropical areas of the world, Southeast Asia, Africa, India, Tropical South America, Caribbean, there has been not a single region of "major" epicentral outbreak, after several months of this illness circulating. Nor has there been an explosion in cases yet in Australia, South Africa, or Argentina, which have been in their hot summer months.

I think it is relatively conclusive that the virus survives far less in the air and on surfaces in temperatures about 19C and in particular 23C. Some people may claim it is too early but I think not. All the major outbreaks are north of parallel 30 on the winter side, without a single exception, that includes China.

This those not mean the virus does and will not spread in hot climates and eventually still circulate the population, but its seems clear it will do so at a slower rate. That could be great news to avoid a devastating peak.

You hear absolutely no news out of South Amerca, because they actually have done a great job even if it is not being recognized internationally. I there say a much better job than most European countries.


Don't trust the governments or news media. Search for the information yourself. Critical thinking 101.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/brazil/


So you are saying none of the governments in tropical regions can be trusted? That's a bit far and I'm not willing to go there. Further if the disease was devastating those regions it would not be possible for all the governments to hide it at the same time. Some information and videos would be leaking out.

It could also be the population profile of the tropical nations skews to very mild cases with low death rates. So I think it could be all three: lower speed of spread from climate, population profile, and undertesting.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
speedking
Posts: 128
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:00 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:19 am

Derico wrote:
speedking wrote:
Derico wrote:

It is too much of a coincidence that in none of the strictly tropical areas of the world, Southeast Asia, Africa, India, Tropical South America, Caribbean, there has been not a single region of "major" epicentral outbreak, after several months of this illness circulating. Nor has there been an explosion in cases yet in Australia, South Africa, or Argentina, which have been in their hot summer months.

I think it is relatively conclusive that the virus survives far less in the air and on surfaces in temperatures about 19C and in particular 23C. Some people may claim it is too early but I think not. All the major outbreaks are north of parallel 30 on the winter side, without a single exception, that includes China.

This those not mean the virus does and will not spread in hot climates and eventually still circulate the population, but its seems clear it will do so at a slower rate. That could be great news to avoid a devastating peak.

You hear absolutely no news out of South Amerca, because they actually have done a great job even if it is not being recognized internationally. I there say a much better job than most European countries.


Don't trust the governments or news media. Search for the information yourself. Critical thinking 101.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/brazil/


So you are saying none of the governments in tropical regions can be trusted? That's a bit far and I'm not willing to go there. Further if the disease was devastating those regions it would not be possible for all the governments to hide it at the same time. Some information and videos would be leaking out.

It could also be the population profile of the tropical nations skews to very mild cases with low death rates. So I think it could be all three: lower speed of spread from climate, population profile, and undertesting.


I'm saying none of the governments in the world should be trusted. You should trust only yourself. The virus is already in Florida and the death rate is increasing. It is the same on the other side of the equator. Same climate. Not so much news from the south yet in the global media.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:37 am

PPVRA wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Finally, Dr.Fauci and President Trump now recommending the public to use something to cover the nose and mouth, like scarf or bandana.
Dr. Fauci even said if masks were not in short supply for medical pros, he would be inclined to recommend for public use.

Where are all the experts recommending it is bad?


Is the WHO recommending this yet? I don't think they did, either.

Not trying to defend anyone. I get that asking people not to buy masks unnecessarily is a good thing, but that doesn't mean they should tell people bad information.

The key thing is that the standard "surgical mask" which is what most wear, protect those around the wearer, not the wearer themselves (surgeons wear them to protect the patient). So you can wear one, but don't depend on it to protect you. The N95 is a different game and is designed to protect the wearer but many people don't wear them properly.

But COVID19 where it appears the virus can spread far easier than originally thought and importantly, those infected may not know they are infected, may be asymptomatic, so a surgical mask does a good job in this situation.

So all the early advise was really about people who thought a surgical mask would protect them, and honestly, it doesn't.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:41 am

We have already talked about this. Masks would be slightly beneficial if everyone wore one. Since there isn't even 1% of the supply needed to do this, then officials can't say that.

At the moment countries are literally stealing masks from each other for goodness' sake !

About GM making ventilators, and Trump's involvement : https://imgur.com/gallery/nDIX81z
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:49 am

Large groups, close contact, large droplets from infected persons are the main channels of infection. Door knobs, surfaces, packages etc can infect but far less likely. So avoid the former, and then think about the later. Not the other way around.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8438
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:57 am

Tugger wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Finally, Dr.Fauci and President Trump now recommending the public to use something to cover the nose and mouth, like scarf or bandana.
Dr. Fauci even said if masks were not in short supply for medical pros, he would be inclined to recommend for public use.

Where are all the experts recommending it is bad?


Is the WHO recommending this yet? I don't think they did, either.

Not trying to defend anyone. I get that asking people not to buy masks unnecessarily is a good thing, but that doesn't mean they should tell people bad information.

The key thing is that the standard "surgical mask" which is what most wear, protect those around the wearer, not the wearer themselves (surgeons wear them to protect the patient). So you can wear one, but don't depend on it to protect you. The N95 is a different game and is designed to protect the wearer but many people don't wear them properly.

But COVID19 where it appears the virus can spread far easier than originally thought and importantly, those infected may not know they are infected, may be asymptomatic, so a surgical mask does a good job in this situation.

So all the early advise was really about people who thought a surgical mask would protect them, and honestly, it doesn't.

Tugg


Masks, makeshift or not, protect everybody including the wearer. They must, it doesn't make sense they wouldn't--it's a barrier after all. Of course they work to different degrees, and if you're healthy, it's kinda of a waste to use an actual mask unless you plan on going somewhere higher risk for contagion. But something is better than complete exposure.

Not to mention it might help make you facially aware, reducing face touching. And heck, it probably pushes air around a bit so aerodynamics might help steer some molecules away from flying straight into your mouth/nose.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
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