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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:15 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
So let me ask you this:
I don't think anybody is questioning social distancing in the long run which looks like very necessary but how can you support global population without an economy running?

This is honest question. You all say we need to stay home. Ok, got it. How do we eat 2 months from now? How those living paycheck to paycheck don't end up sick and on the street?
Rural areas, much better state. Big cities, when everything relies on day to day functioning of millions of people. How is it even possible to prevent a full on collapse without sending people to work?.

Please, tell me.

You are thinking people are saying this needs to be a lifetime lockdown? That people are saying the stay at home orders should never be lifted?

I am not hearing or seeing that. Even Wuhan just lifted their order.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3568
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:21 pm

Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
So let me ask you this:
I don't think anybody is questioning social distancing in the long run which looks like very necessary but how can you support global population without an economy running?

This is honest question. You all say we need to stay home. Ok, got it. How do we eat 2 months from now? How those living paycheck to paycheck don't end up sick and on the street?
Rural areas, much better state. Big cities, when everything relies on day to day functioning of millions of people. How is it even possible to prevent a full on collapse without sending people to work?.

Please, tell me.

You are thinking people are saying this needs to be a lifetime lockdown? That people are saying the stay at home orders should never be lifted?

I am not hearing or seeing that. Even Wuhan just lifted their order.

Tugg


And quite frankly, at the current pace I can see things start to reopen in about 2 weeks.

The only question now is whether things will just go back to what it was. Some industry like tourism sector will be hurt for at least another quarter. Restaurants, however, should be back to normal in a month as people still have to eat.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:22 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
CDC has done some number-crunching and have revised the R0 for COVID-19 far higher than the last estimation. This further supports the need for aggressive antibody serology testing once available and wide deployment of vaccine for same.

At 95% confidence interval, the R0 is between 3.8 and 8.9, median of 5.7. This underscores why distancing has been essential in limiting spread.

Image

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 51232?s=21


So let me ask you this:
I don't think anybody is questioning social distancing in the long run which looks like very necessary but how can you support global population without an economy running?

This is honest question. You all say we need to stay home. Ok, got it. How do we eat 2 months from now? How those living paycheck to paycheck don't end up sick and on the street?
Rural areas, much better state. Big cities, when everything relies on day to day functioning of millions of people. How is it even possible to prevent a full on collapse without sending people to work?.

Please, tell me.


Nobody is saying that - an antibody serology test will be ready soon and with that we can easily clear the immune and non-contagious to go about their business as usual.

As for how to best cope, there are a lot of ideas out there, but this conservative writer has the best approach IMO because it avoids a lot of the issues we’re already seeing with stimulus and convoluted loan schemes.

https://thebulwark.com/theres-a-way-for ... e-too/?amp
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:24 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
CDC has done some number-crunching and have revised the R0 for COVID-19 far higher than the last estimation. This further supports the need for aggressive antibody serology testing once available and wide deployment of vaccine for same.

At 95% confidence interval, the R0 is between 3.8 and 8.9, median of 5.7. This underscores why distancing has been essential in limiting spread.

Image

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 51232?s=21


So let me ask you this:
I don't think anybody is questioning social distancing in the long run which looks like very necessary but how can you support global population without an economy running?

This is honest question. You all say we need to stay home. Ok, got it. How do we eat 2 months from now? How those living paycheck to paycheck don't end up sick and on the street?
Rural areas, much better state. Big cities, when everything relies on day to day functioning of millions of people. How is it even possible to prevent a full on collapse without sending people to work?.

Please, tell me.


Good question, since much of the panic has been triggered for what happened in Italy, if Italy is any measure, please take a look at the situation in Italy right now

https://www.businessinsider.com/italian ... own-2020-4

Italy is not a third world country and has a huge social safety net.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:33 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Italy is not a third world country and has a huge social safety net.

Italy is and has been an economic basket case for years. It's economy has been one of the ongoing primary problems and potential failure points of the EU itself. Italy's government has collapsed so many times, it has had 61 governments since WW2

It's management of its economy has essentially been "third world".

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:37 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
CDC has done some number-crunching and have revised the R0 for COVID-19 far higher than the last estimation. This further supports the need for aggressive antibody serology testing once available and wide deployment of vaccine for same.

At 95% confidence interval, the R0 is between 3.8 and 8.9, median of 5.7. This underscores why distancing has been essential in limiting spread.

Image

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 51232?s=21


So let me ask you this:
I don't think anybody is questioning social distancing in the long run which looks like very necessary but how can you support global population without an economy running?

This is honest question. You all say we need to stay home. Ok, got it. How do we eat 2 months from now? How those living paycheck to paycheck don't end up sick and on the street?
Rural areas, much better state. Big cities, when everything relies on day to day functioning of millions of people. How is it even possible to prevent a full on collapse without sending people to work?.

Please, tell me.


Good question, since much of the panic has been triggered for what happened in Italy, if Italy is any measure, please take a look at the situation in Italy right now

https://www.businessinsider.com/italian ... own-2020-4

Italy is not a third world country and has a huge social safety net.


Italy may be ‘first world’ but it’s a corrupt mess with poor institutions and has been for decades.

Still, the US has a weak social safety net in general, so the prospect of ‘what happens when people are out of cash’ argues strongly for what I linked in the op-ed above. We must temporarily release individuals and companies from their regular monthly obligations - that is driving the crunch more than anything. Monthly obligations are designed for when the economy runs normally.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:37 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
CDC has done some number-crunching and have revised the R0 for COVID-19 far higher than the last estimation. This further supports the need for aggressive antibody serology testing once available and wide deployment of vaccine for same.

At 95% confidence interval, the R0 is between 3.8 and 8.9, median of 5.7. This underscores why distancing has been essential in limiting spread.

Image

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 51232?s=21


R0 seems like an arcane science to me so I will not blame anyone, but it seemed obvious to me it was higher, from the first reported instances of religious gatherings causing hundreds of infections.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:39 pm

Aesma wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
CDC has done some number-crunching and have revised the R0 for COVID-19 far higher than the last estimation. This further supports the need for aggressive antibody serology testing once available and wide deployment of vaccine for same.

At 95% confidence interval, the R0 is between 3.8 and 8.9, median of 5.7. This underscores why distancing has been essential in limiting spread.

Image

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 51232?s=21


R0 seems like an arcane science to me so I will not blame anyone, but it seemed obvious to me it was higher, from the first reported instances of religious gatherings causing hundreds of infections.


True enough - when we get histograms at work with the interval seen in the R0 chart above, we refine the data and try try again.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:44 pm

Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
So let me ask you this:
I don't think anybody is questioning social distancing in the long run which looks like very necessary but how can you support global population without an economy running?

This is honest question. You all say we need to stay home. Ok, got it. How do we eat 2 months from now? How those living paycheck to paycheck don't end up sick and on the street?
Rural areas, much better state. Big cities, when everything relies on day to day functioning of millions of people. How is it even possible to prevent a full on collapse without sending people to work?.

Please, tell me.

You are thinking people are saying this needs to be a lifetime lockdown? That people are saying the stay at home orders should never be lifted?

I am not hearing or seeing that. Even Wuhan just lifted their order.

Tugg


I was thinking more in the lines up to 18 months (guesstimates of approved vaccine).
Frankly I know people that will face life on the street in the next 45-60days.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:48 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
So let me ask you this:
I don't think anybody is questioning social distancing in the long run which looks like very necessary but how can you support global population without an economy running?

This is honest question. You all say we need to stay home. Ok, got it. How do we eat 2 months from now? How those living paycheck to paycheck don't end up sick and on the street?
Rural areas, much better state. Big cities, when everything relies on day to day functioning of millions of people. How is it even possible to prevent a full on collapse without sending people to work?.

Please, tell me.

You are thinking people are saying this needs to be a lifetime lockdown? That people are saying the stay at home orders should never be lifted?

I am not hearing or seeing that. Even Wuhan just lifted their order.

Tugg


I was thinking more in the lines up to 18 months (guesstimates of approved vaccine).

Wow, really? No, I never heard that being suggested but maybe I am not reading the same sites. To my knowledge and from what I have read this situation will start easing in the next month (different time frames for differently impacted regions).

The vaccine will impact how Fall and Winter go. I do expect to see a lot of people wearing face masks which is very not-normal for the USA.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:54 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

So let me ask you this:
I don't think anybody is questioning social distancing in the long run which looks like very necessary but how can you support global population without an economy running?

This is honest question. You all say we need to stay home. Ok, got it. How do we eat 2 months from now? How those living paycheck to paycheck don't end up sick and on the street?
Rural areas, much better state. Big cities, when everything relies on day to day functioning of millions of people. How is it even possible to prevent a full on collapse without sending people to work?.

Please, tell me.


Good question, since much of the panic has been triggered for what happened in Italy, if Italy is any measure, please take a look at the situation in Italy right now

https://www.businessinsider.com/italian ... own-2020-4

Italy is not a third world country and has a huge social safety net.




Italy may be ‘first world’ but it’s a corrupt mess with poor institutions and has been for decades.

Still, the US has a weak social safety net in general, so the prospect of ‘what happens when people are out of cash’ argues strongly for what I linked in the op-ed above. We must temporarily release individuals and companies from their regular monthly obligations - that is driving the crunch more than anything. Monthly obligations are designed for when the economy runs normally.



Wait what?? so no, we can't look to Italy to expect what might happen here? The data, the panic all was based on Italy, now we can't base the impending economic catastrophe on Italy because its just not Norway? AFAIK, Italy has a 'better' social safety net than the US, and despite all of that look at their present situation, people begging in the street for food, they are no longer singing in balconies.

Your proposal won't ever see the light of day, getting people back to work the same way before this panic induced economic crisis began will be the best solution.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:59 pm

Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Tugger wrote:
You are thinking people are saying this needs to be a lifetime lockdown? That people are saying the stay at home orders should never be lifted?

I am not hearing or seeing that. Even Wuhan just lifted their order.

Tugg


I was thinking more in the lines up to 18 months (guesstimates of approved vaccine).

Wow, really? No, I never heard that being suggested but maybe I am not reading the same sites. To my knowledge and from what I have read this situation will start easing in the next month (different time frames for differently impacted regions).

The vaccine will impact how Fall and Winter go. I do expect to see a lot of people wearing face masks which is very not-normal for the USA.

Tugg


So here's the question.
No cure for it, no vaccine. At this point flattening the curve works only (or mostly) by social distancing. We go back to "normal" in 1 month. Some people will wear masks but touching surfaces still stays. Nobody is wearing eye protection and density goes back to normal in cramped spaces.
What difference does it make about 4-12 weeks after all reopens if we get a V2? We go back to close everything again?
At that point my question still stands. How do you keep the economy going?

Economical lock down will murder a lot of live hoods. I'm wondering if not tenfold of what Covid-19 can do. I see this being prioritized yet no real (I mean real not some $1200 bullshit) financial / sustainability solution was presented at this point. Why?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:00 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Good question, since much of the panic has been triggered for what happened in Italy, if Italy is any measure, please take a look at the situation in Italy right now

https://www.businessinsider.com/italian ... own-2020-4

Italy is not a third world country and has a huge social safety net.




Italy may be ‘first world’ but it’s a corrupt mess with poor institutions and has been for decades.

Still, the US has a weak social safety net in general, so the prospect of ‘what happens when people are out of cash’ argues strongly for what I linked in the op-ed above. We must temporarily release individuals and companies from their regular monthly obligations - that is driving the crunch more than anything. Monthly obligations are designed for when the economy runs normally.



Wait what?? so no, we can't look to Italy to expect what might happen here? The data, the panic all was based on Italy, now we can't base the impending economic catastrophe on Italy because its just not Norway? AFAIK, Italy has a 'better' social safety net than the US, and despite all of that look at their present situation, people begging in the street for food, they are no longer singing in balconies.

Your proposal won't ever see the light of day, getting people back to work the same way before this panic induced economic crisis began will be the best solution.


That ship has sailed - there are too many issues now for the economy to simply thrive again from day one. And it’s not only my proposal:

https://thebulwark.com/theres-a-way-for ... e-too/?amp

The data and ‘panic’ were not ‘all based on Italy’ - you are conflating three or four separate things into one. Source this claim properly please, without bias or conspiracy nut stuff. If you can’t open the mind and embrace a little bit of nuance, it’s impossible to discuss complex issues.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:04 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Wait what?? so no, we can't look to Italy to expect what might happen here? The data, the panic all was based on Italy, now we can't base the impending economic catastrophe on Italy because its just not Norway? AFAIK, Italy has a 'better' social safety net than the US, and despite all of that look at their present situation, people begging in the street for food, they are no longer singing in balconies.

?? I know Italy was the "canary" that got everyone motivated but the panic wasn't based all on what happened there in my opinion. It was also the fact that people thought it was more "under control" after the crap information China provided and people being terrified they had it wrong.

At that point the epidemiologists were looked at for guidance and a number of projections were created to plan against. That is where any "panic" started, people were basically shocked since it seemed China had locked it down and out and it was just their problem.

Everyone gets panicked when you discover you're in a tunnel and you see the train light coming at you....

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:09 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
So here's the question.
No cure for it, no vaccine. At this point flattening the curve works only (or mostly) by social distancing. We go back to "normal" in 1 month. Some people will wear masks but touching surfaces still stays. Nobody is wearing eye protection and density goes back to normal in cramped spaces.
What difference does it make about 4-12 weeks after all reopens if we get a V2? We go back to close everything again?
At that point my question still stands. How do you keep the economy going?

Economical lock down will murder a lot of live hoods. I'm wondering if not tenfold of what Covid-19 can do. I see this being prioritized yet no real (I mean real not some $1200 bullshit) financial / sustainability solution was presented at this point. Why?

Testing and known processes in place along with a reinforced care system that has a plan in place to manage the situation.

Simple answer but knowing the scale and scope of a problem and having tools to direct against it is everything. Quite frankly it is why the normal flu with its risks is not an issue. We know it and have plans in place for it.

Regarding the vaccine, it remains to be seen just how fast they can cram it through the system. But NO ONE is going to promise MORE than they can deliver so no one is going to say it will take less than the normal vaccine process takes.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
marcelh
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:09 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

So let me ask you this:
I don't think anybody is questioning social distancing in the long run which looks like very necessary but how can you support global population without an economy running?

This is honest question. You all say we need to stay home. Ok, got it. How do we eat 2 months from now? How those living paycheck to paycheck don't end up sick and on the street?
Rural areas, much better state. Big cities, when everything relies on day to day functioning of millions of people. How is it even possible to prevent a full on collapse without sending people to work?.

Please, tell me.


Good question, since much of the panic has been triggered for what happened in Italy, if Italy is any measure, please take a look at the situation in Italy right now

https://www.businessinsider.com/italian ... own-2020-4

Italy is not a third world country and has a huge social safety net.


Italy may be ‘first world’ but it’s a corrupt mess with poor institutions and has been for decades.

Still, the US has a weak social safety net in general, so the prospect of ‘what happens when people are out of cash’ argues strongly for what I linked in the op-ed above. We must temporarily release individuals and companies from their regular monthly obligations - that is driving the crunch more than anything. Monthly obligations are designed for when the economy runs normally.

In many aspects, USA is a third world country. You’re OK if you make enough money, but the fast
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:31 pm

Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Wait what?? so no, we can't look to Italy to expect what might happen here? The data, the panic all was based on Italy, now we can't base the impending economic catastrophe on Italy because its just not Norway? AFAIK, Italy has a 'better' social safety net than the US, and despite all of that look at their present situation, people begging in the street for food, they are no longer singing in balconies.

?? I know Italy was the "canary" that got everyone motivated but the panic wasn't based all on what happened there in my opinion. It was also the fact that people thought it was more "under control" after the crap information China provided and people being terrified they had it wrong.

At that point the epidemiologists were looked at for guidance and a number of projections were created to plan against. That is where any "panic" started, people were basically shocked since it seemed China had locked it down and out and it was just their problem.

Everyone gets panicked when you discover you're in a tunnel and you see the train light coming at you....

Tugg


Also, for the longest time, "western" nations in particular let their guards way down as they think the problem will just be in China, or at worse, stay in the APAC region after the South Korean outbreak.

Countries like Italy and Germany or even US thought they have things all contained within small clusters of outbreak.

Meanwhile, those same "western" nations never imposed much in terms of travel restrictions against, let say, Chinese nationals, as it is deem "discriminatory" (Thanks, WHO). There were some predictions early on even here in a.net that say it could become global just bc of how much global travel had grown since, for example, 2003 SARS outbreak.

And boom...Italy lost control, and it spread to rest of Europe along with US and South America. Right now, places like South Korea are reporting <50 cases a day after the explosion of cases there. Europe is still about 10 days behind that, though, and US about 2 weeks minimum.
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:32 pm

Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
So here's the question.
No cure for it, no vaccine. At this point flattening the curve works only (or mostly) by social distancing. We go back to "normal" in 1 month. Some people will wear masks but touching surfaces still stays. Nobody is wearing eye protection and density goes back to normal in cramped spaces.
What difference does it make about 4-12 weeks after all reopens if we get a V2? We go back to close everything again?
At that point my question still stands. How do you keep the economy going?

Economical lock down will murder a lot of live hoods. I'm wondering if not tenfold of what Covid-19 can do. I see this being prioritized yet no real (I mean real not some $1200 bullshit) financial / sustainability solution was presented at this point. Why?

Testing and known processes in place along with a reinforced care system that has a plan in place to manage the situation.

Simple answer but knowing the scale and scope of a problem and having tools to direct against it is everything. Quite frankly it is why the normal flu with its risks is not an issue. We know it and have plans in place for it.

Regarding the vaccine, it remains to be seen just how fast they can cram it through the system. But NO ONE is going to promise MORE than they can deliver so no one is going to say it will take less than the normal vaccine process takes.

Tugg


So we are looking at about 20-30 (estimates) million people or more without jobs that will by themselves put a strain in healthcare system or the system in general due to stress / poor living conditions / poor nutrition / suicides / burglaries / homicides and etc.
If we will have to shut down again cause who knows how hard will V2 affect people this numbers will grow even higher adding even more stress.
Nothing I am seeing right now actually makes what's coming as a valid option unless there is a underlying agenda here or they are planning to shower us with money. Pure numbers of this massive unemployment will hurt / kill A LOT more people than COVID-19.
In my opinion of course.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:41 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
(estimates)

Do you believe all estimates will be accurate and come to fruition?

Basically you plan for them so the worst ones don't come true. 10% unemployment? Sure, yes that is a real possibility. We've been there and done that many times throughout US history. But we recover and move on. The economy is sound, the question is how quickly does it get moving again?

I think people will spend again once the situation improves and they can and that can lead to more jobs and the virtuous cycle can continue. The velocity of money is critical in the USA. I can't say for sure of course, just guessing. But I think once a vaccine is in place things will return to a stable footing and the economy will regain traction. The intervening months? That is a real question but people are getting used to doing things with more care so that will help, and again with the ability to test and know the boundaries of the problem, along with the medical system being able to handle things will enable people to not be scared even though they are more cautious.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:55 pm

There is no going back to normal. If you reopen things like before, frequentation will be way down, not normal. It will not be down enough to not have another wave though, because this thing is very contagious. So even if the government does nothing by then, what does a company do when a worker is ill ? When two are ill ? 3 ? Does it run like normal ?

US specific, but what about the lawsuits ? If you catch this at work and spend weeks in ICU, wouldn't you sue your company ? What if you die, won't your family sue ?

Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Italy is not a third world country and has a huge social safety net.

Italy is and has been an economic basket case for years. It's economy has been one of the ongoing primary problems and potential failure points of the EU itself. Italy's government has collapsed so many times, it has had 61 governments since WW2

It's management of its economy has essentially been "third world".

Tugg


My grandmother was born in Tunisia from a Sicilian family. She met my grandfather and moved to Tuscany, then France, then back to Tuscany. Late in life she would outright deny having anything to do with the south of her country !

In northern Italy it's even worse, they will say things like "they're black down there"...
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:15 pm

Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
(estimates)

Do you believe all estimates will be accurate and come to fruition?

Basically you plan for them so the worst ones don't come true. 10% unemployment? Sure, yes that is a real possibility. We've been there and done that many times throughout US history. But we recover and move on. The economy is sound, the question is how quickly does it get moving again?

I think people will spend again once the situation improves and they can and that can lead to more jobs and the virtuous cycle can continue. The velocity of money is critical in the USA. I can't say for sure of course, just guessing. But I think once a vaccine is in place things will return to a stable footing and the economy will regain traction. The intervening months? That is a real question but people are getting used to doing things with more care so that will help, and again with the ability to test and know the boundaries of the problem, along with the medical system being able to handle things will enable people to not be scared even though they are more cautious.

Tugg


Last I heard it passed 10 million unemployed and that was last week.
Just to restart all the companies will take a long time. Business will not just go back to what it was which means a lot of those people are not getting their job back.
Nobody cares about being cautions when they are hungry.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:35 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Last I heard it passed 10 million unemployed and that was last week.
Just to restart all the companies will take a long time. Business will not just go back to what it was which means a lot of those people are not getting their job back.
Nobody cares about being cautions when they are hungry.

Well I am not a doom and gloom person like some are. The glass half-full view is: 71% of the economy is still moving and running. Many businesses are still employing people. Many people are still earning a paycheck. And that is as of now without things "reopening" (can't last too long of course). When things do reopen that will tick up from 71%. At that point many (not all and how many remains in question) will be rehired and those still on the job but at home will begin to return to work. That will be the start to see how things might progress from there.

Again, I think the economy will pick up decently from where it is. But I am not being foolish or falsely optimistic, I know this is all in question and nothing is sure. But we have bounced back from past devastating economic downturns and I see no reason to think we wouldn't do so again with this one. The cause is not economic, it is disease, it is known, and we are pretty good at keeping disease under control (so far and that is what cause the shock, the idea that there was something we didn't have under control).

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:42 pm

We don't even know the real numbers to be honest...
Some countries at least.
https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Article/2 ... sting-land

21st century bio terrorist.Can you imagine if she were a he, white and OMG wearing a maga hat?
Similar videos are circulating for a while. Ever seen it on mainstream media?
https://twitter.com/JamestheJunior1/sta ... 5373804547 Scroll down one post for the video of the guys sitting on the bench.
Last edited by PixelPilot on Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:02 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:00 pm

Local shipyard is planning on ramping up workers on location. Even more monitoring and masks. And again, given these natural experiments I wonder why planning is not more ongoing for getting people back to work. Health care workers, grocers, defense people are doing it, and with fairly maximal cautions. We should be starting with those under 50, even 40 at taking toddler steps.

Our state, the original center of the US pandemic, is quickly suppressing the disease. The job is not over, caution and epidemiologists are greatly needed to ensure things stay good. Cutting corners is not in order.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
kalvado
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:18 pm

Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Last I heard it passed 10 million unemployed and that was last week.
Just to restart all the companies will take a long time. Business will not just go back to what it was which means a lot of those people are not getting their job back.
Nobody cares about being cautions when they are hungry.

Well I am not a doom and gloom person like some are. The glass half-full view is: 71% of the economy is still moving and running. Many businesses are still employing people. Many people are still earning a paycheck. And that is as of now without things "reopening" (can't last too long of course). When things do reopen that will tick up from 71%. At that point many (not all and how many remains in question) will be rehired and those still on the job but at home will begin to return to work. That will be the start to see how things might progress from there.

Again, I think the economy will pick up decently from where it is. But I am not being foolish or falsely optimistic, I know this is all in question and nothing is sure. But we have bounced back from past devastating economic downturns and I see no reason to think we wouldn't do so again with this one. The cause is not economic, it is disease, it is known, and we are pretty good at keeping disease under control (so far and that is what cause the shock, the idea that there was something we didn't have under control).

Tugg


Locking down at home for good is not an option, no question about that. Right now about 1% of NYC is infected, and healthcare is in trouble. They say 70% will eventually get sick if there is no vaccine. Assuming 2 weeks sick cycle, 140 weeks of lockdown... Hm, well, no.
Initial quarantine was needed to suppress initial wave - but even then could be a knee jerk reaction in some locations.
Supplies are definitely needed to keep things going; masks, gloves, sanitizers, more soap than ever before etc. I hope production is ramped up.
Social rethinking. Tough luck for sitdown restraunts or live performances. More self service - checkouts at stores, etc. No more huge cubicle farms.
Changing social norms for sick. Fever above threshold - you are as good as chained to the bed. Fever checks everywhere.
Hopefully better treatment on the horison (remdesivir?). Hopefully vaccine at the end of the tunnel. But for now just keep things afloat. All can be dealt with, I suppose. Need to start planning ASAP, like, two weeks ago.
 
flyguy89
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:55 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
So here's the question.
No cure for it, no vaccine. At this point flattening the curve works only (or mostly) by social distancing. We go back to "normal" in 1 month. Some people will wear masks but touching surfaces still stays. Nobody is wearing eye protection and density goes back to normal in cramped spaces.
What difference does it make about 4-12 weeks after all reopens if we get a V2? We go back to close everything again?
At that point my question still stands. How do you keep the economy going?

Economical lock down will murder a lot of live hoods. I'm wondering if not tenfold of what Covid-19 can do. I see this being prioritized yet no real (I mean real not some $1200 bullshit) financial / sustainability solution was presented at this point. Why?

Testing and known processes in place along with a reinforced care system that has a plan in place to manage the situation.

Simple answer but knowing the scale and scope of a problem and having tools to direct against it is everything. Quite frankly it is why the normal flu with its risks is not an issue. We know it and have plans in place for it.

Regarding the vaccine, it remains to be seen just how fast they can cram it through the system. But NO ONE is going to promise MORE than they can deliver so no one is going to say it will take less than the normal vaccine process takes.

Tugg


So we are looking at about 20-30 (estimates) million people or more without jobs that will by themselves put a strain in healthcare system or the system in general due to stress / poor living conditions / poor nutrition / suicides / burglaries / homicides and etc.
If we will have to shut down again cause who knows how hard will V2 affect people this numbers will grow even higher adding even more stress.
Nothing I am seeing right now actually makes what's coming as a valid option unless there is a underlying agenda here or they are planning to shower us with money. Pure numbers of this massive unemployment will hurt / kill A LOT more people than COVID-19.
In my opinion of course.

As has been mentioned here, rapid and widespread COVID and serological testing will be the key to moving back to normal. The problem right now with the "projections" and the "experts" is that they really have no f*cking clue the extent of the COVID-19 epidemic. Educated guessing, sure, but when only symptomatic and worst cases are being tested, we have no way to have a pulse on where and how much of a given population are infected, immune, etc. These testing regimens (will be rolling out within a month) will allow us to get an accurate picture of the situation, and then pair this with rigorous contact tracing and isolation protocols. Concurrently, it's quite likely that some the therapeutics (Chloroquine, artificial antibodies, z-packs, etc) in trial will bear some fruit and provide and adequate bridge until we have a vaccine.
 
N757ST
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:32 pm

kalvado wrote:
Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Last I heard it passed 10 million unemployed and that was last week.
Just to restart all the companies will take a long time. Business will not just go back to what it was which means a lot of those people are not getting their job back.
Nobody cares about being cautions when they are hungry.

Well I am not a doom and gloom person like some are. The glass half-full view is: 71% of the economy is still moving and running. Many businesses are still employing people. Many people are still earning a paycheck. And that is as of now without things "reopening" (can't last too long of course). When things do reopen that will tick up from 71%. At that point many (not all and how many remains in question) will be rehired and those still on the job but at home will begin to return to work. That will be the start to see how things might progress from there.

Again, I think the economy will pick up decently from where it is. But I am not being foolish or falsely optimistic, I know this is all in question and nothing is sure. But we have bounced back from past devastating economic downturns and I see no reason to think we wouldn't do so again with this one. The cause is not economic, it is disease, it is known, and we are pretty good at keeping disease under control (so far and that is what cause the shock, the idea that there was something we didn't have under control).

Tugg


Locking down at home for good is not an option, no question about that. Right now about 1% of NYC is infected, and healthcare is in trouble. They say 70% will eventually get sick if there is no vaccine. Assuming 2 weeks sick cycle, 140 weeks of lockdown... Hm, well, no.
Initial quarantine was needed to suppress initial wave - but even then could be a knee jerk reaction in some locations.
Supplies are definitely needed to keep things going; masks, gloves, sanitizers, more soap than ever before etc. I hope production is ramped up.
Social rethinking. Tough luck for sitdown restraunts or live performances. More self service - checkouts at stores, etc. No more huge cubicle farms.
Changing social norms for sick. Fever above threshold - you are as good as chained to the bed. Fever checks everywhere.
Hopefully better treatment on the horison (remdesivir?). Hopefully vaccine at the end of the tunnel. But for now just keep things afloat. All can be dealt with, I suppose. Need to start planning ASAP, like, two weeks ago.


There’s likely way more then 1% infected. Its an unscientific study but I personally know multiple people that likely have it but can’t get a test, and then you add in a 50% asymptomatic rate. This is likely far more widespread then thought, which while bad isn’t all horrible. It’s likely the “dark” cases are very very sizable which will dramatically reduce CFR.
 
kalvado
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:01 pm

N757ST wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Well I am not a doom and gloom person like some are. The glass half-full view is: 71% of the economy is still moving and running. Many businesses are still employing people. Many people are still earning a paycheck. And that is as of now without things "reopening" (can't last too long of course). When things do reopen that will tick up from 71%. At that point many (not all and how many remains in question) will be rehired and those still on the job but at home will begin to return to work. That will be the start to see how things might progress from there.

Again, I think the economy will pick up decently from where it is. But I am not being foolish or falsely optimistic, I know this is all in question and nothing is sure. But we have bounced back from past devastating economic downturns and I see no reason to think we wouldn't do so again with this one. The cause is not economic, it is disease, it is known, and we are pretty good at keeping disease under control (so far and that is what cause the shock, the idea that there was something we didn't have under control).

Tugg


Locking down at home for good is not an option, no question about that. Right now about 1% of NYC is infected, and healthcare is in trouble. They say 70% will eventually get sick if there is no vaccine. Assuming 2 weeks sick cycle, 140 weeks of lockdown... Hm, well, no.
Initial quarantine was needed to suppress initial wave - but even then could be a knee jerk reaction in some locations.
Supplies are definitely needed to keep things going; masks, gloves, sanitizers, more soap than ever before etc. I hope production is ramped up.
Social rethinking. Tough luck for sitdown restraunts or live performances. More self service - checkouts at stores, etc. No more huge cubicle farms.
Changing social norms for sick. Fever above threshold - you are as good as chained to the bed. Fever checks everywhere.
Hopefully better treatment on the horison (remdesivir?). Hopefully vaccine at the end of the tunnel. But for now just keep things afloat. All can be dealt with, I suppose. Need to start planning ASAP, like, two weeks ago.


There’s likely way more then 1% infected. Its an unscientific study but I personally know multiple people that likely have it but can’t get a test, and then you add in a 50% asymptomatic rate. This is likely far more widespread then thought, which while bad isn’t all horrible. It’s likely the “dark” cases are very very sizable which will dramatically reduce CFR.

Few %% probably, I still bet on <10%. Even on those testworthy, half of the tests come back as negative.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:15 pm

Until this graph inverts, we will need to stay vigilant around the world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -recovered
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:22 am

https://www.click2houston.com/news/nati ... tType=amp/

So it looks like all states will have hit their peak by the end of the month. Any mayor or governor that does not relieve restrictions after should be cut off from all Federal funds. At that point they are just trying to make the economic situation worse.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:32 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
https://www.click2houston.com/news/national/2020/04/08/this-is-when-each-state-is-expected-to-peak-in-coronavirus-cases/?outputType=amp/

So it looks like all states will have hit their peak by the end of the month. Any mayor or governor that does not relieve restrictions after should be cut off from all Federal funds. At that point they are just trying to make the economic situation worse.

So you agree with projections being made? Are there any that don't predict this? Which model is this based on?

Guest that must mean you also agreed with earlier projections.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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zkojq
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:12 am

After Trump's statements about hydroxychloroquine, lupus and arthritis patients face drug shortage

When Elaine MacKenzie hears President Trump talk about how a particular drug might be a "game-changer" for people with coronavirus, it's more than just news to her -- it's personal.

Her doctor wants her to take hydroxychloroquine for her rheumatoid arthritis. Trump's been enthusiastic about this drug for coronavirus patients, causing people hoard it -- even though it's still being tested and might not even work against the virus.

MacKenzie, 58, went to several pharmacies near her New Canaan, Connecticut, home, and found they they were all out.
Her joints ache, and some days she even has trouble walking, which makes it hard to cook and care for her 91-year old mother, her husband, and their four children who live at home.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/h ... index.html

N212R wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
On the topic of China - not good if even half of this is accurate:

Sources in China tell me: 1. Things are very bad in Guangzhou City of #Guangdong province. #CCPVirus cases are exploding. 2. Schools and universities in Beijing won’t open until September. 來自中國的消息:廣州 #中共病毒 案例爆增, 北京的學校9月前都開不了學

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/statu ... 48643?s=21


Does anyone dispute that Twitter is of greater "official" reliability than the CCP?


Literally the only time the hard right supports and believes human rights activists lol.

Tugger wrote:
Is happily be first.
And I hate shots.

Tugg


I hate them too. If there's no objections, I'll be second please.

Aesma wrote:
If I show a video of a texan saying something similar about what happens in the US would you also believe it ?


I keep being told that there's death panels in America.

speedking wrote:
There will be trials in Shanghai, like in Nuremberg, where their communist leaders will face international tribunal, convicted for their crimes against humanity, sentenced to death and hanged.

After this the normal Chinese, like Germans, will enter the long road to recovery and success in the future.


I'm guessing you've never been to China? I hate to break it to you, but the authoritarian regime's power is more entrenched than ever. Social Credit system has helped to control what dissent there was.

speedking wrote:
So where are the two million Soviet troops surrounding Berlin in this analogy?


Good question. How many real communists there are in China? They have 1400 million people. How many does it need to topple the government?[/quote]

There's none in the government, that's for sure. Hasn't been since the last of them were purged in the 90s.

FGITD wrote:
Maybe so, but Joann from down the block says it's a hoax caused by 5G, and she's had no less than 20 jobs in the last decade alone, in a multitude of fields. Sometimes she cooks the food, sometimes she serves it, and she's even cleaned It up! It looks to me like you've only been a physician and molecular virologist...so, I'm torn!

But seriously...if the actual experts say go for it, I'll go for it. No doubt about it.


:rotfl: :rotfl:


Aesma wrote:
zkojq : I'm not convinced NZ is doing anything different than Italy, France, and Spain. It hasn't started to do it sooner either.

The problem is how to go from there to the return of normal life, with very few people immune in the population.


We were introducing forced quarantine and closing borders before nearly everyone else was.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
I am not proving nothing, and I am not promoting no conspiracy theory.


You're acting all disappointed that not enough people are dead and not enough hospital beds are full. :roll:

PixelPilot wrote:
Frankly I know people that will face life on the street in the next 45-60days.


So have you offered them a bed, right?
First to fly the 787-9
 
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zkojq
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:21 am

zkojq wrote:
More good news from New Zealand (my yesterday update which also showed good numbers seems to be deleted apparently):

- Total cases 1210 (+50) 26 Confirmed, 24 Probable
- In Hospital 12 (+0)
- In ICU 4 (+0) 2 of those are critical
- Recovered 282 (+41)
- Deaths 1 (+0)

This is a 4% case increase on the previous day, despite substantially more people being tested. Only downside is that unlike yesterday, the number of people recovering isn't outweighing the number of new cases.


April 9th update:

- Total cases 1239 (+39) 23 Confirmed, 6 Probable
- In Hospital 14 (+2)
- In ICU 4 (+0) 2 of those are critical
- Recovered 317 (+35)
- Deaths 1 (+0)

So another day of pleasing statistics. Curve is being squashed. Aggressive progressive action works. Of course a big risk now is people starting to be complacent and violating the lockdown. Police are really stepping up action against violators it seems. We've also got an announcement about the next steps:

On the 20th of April - two days before lockdown finishes a decision will be made on whether we will leave lockdown as planned on the 22nd.

When we move out of alert level 4 - we will definitely be moving back to level 3 initially. It wont be life back to normal immediately
First to fly the 787-9
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:28 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
https://www.click2houston.com/news/national/2020/04/08/this-is-when-each-state-is-expected-to-peak-in-coronavirus-cases/?outputType=amp/

So it looks like all states will have hit their peak by the end of the month. Any mayor or governor that does not relieve restrictions after should be cut off from all Federal funds. At that point they are just trying to make the economic situation worse.



You do realize the restrictions are the only reason why the "peaks" will be hit right? What restrictions to roll back and how will be tricky as it will threaten to open up the spread again .
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:42 am

casinterest wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
https://www.click2houston.com/news/national/2020/04/08/this-is-when-each-state-is-expected-to-peak-in-coronavirus-cases/?outputType=amp/

So it looks like all states will have hit their peak by the end of the month. Any mayor or governor that does not relieve restrictions after should be cut off from all Federal funds. At that point they are just trying to make the economic situation worse.



You do realize the restrictions are the only reason why the "peaks" will be hit right? What restrictions to roll back and how will be tricky as it will threaten to open up the spread again .


The entire thing was an exercise in futility. It only takes one person to start it back up again. I have a feeling you're not from the US. The majority of Americans will not stand for this much longer. Don't want to risk being exposed? Stay home. It's that simple.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:52 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
https://www.click2houston.com/news/national/2020/04/08/this-is-when-each-state-is-expected-to-peak-in-coronavirus-cases/?outputType=amp/

So it looks like all states will have hit their peak by the end of the month. Any mayor or governor that does not relieve restrictions after should be cut off from all Federal funds. At that point they are just trying to make the economic situation worse.



You do realize the restrictions are the only reason why the "peaks" will be hit right? What restrictions to roll back and how will be tricky as it will threaten to open up the spread again .


The entire thing was an exercise in futility. It only takes one person to start it back up again. I have a feeling you're not from the US. The majority of Americans will not stand for this much longer. Don't want to risk being exposed? Stay home. It's that simple.


Completely unscientific nonsense. The entire exercise was necessary (and has been mostly successful) because initial containment failed. There is no other conclusion borne out by epidemiological reality. Feeling salty over inconvenience does not change intrinsic knowledge.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:57 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
casinterest wrote:


You do realize the restrictions are the only reason why the "peaks" will be hit right? What restrictions to roll back and how will be tricky as it will threaten to open up the spread again .


The entire thing was an exercise in futility. It only takes one person to start it back up again. I have a feeling you're not from the US. The majority of Americans will not stand for this much longer. Don't want to risk being exposed? Stay home. It's that simple.


Completely unscientific nonsense. The entire exercise was necessary (and has been mostly successful) because initial containment failed. There is no other conclusion borne out by epidemiological reality. Feeling salty over inconvenience does not change intrinsic knowledge.


I love how you always criticize me but drink up whatever the so called experts tell you. The same ones who said we would only need to lay low for two weeks. They've gotten many things wrong but I don't see you tearing into them. The WHO is corrupt and it's not just the US calling them out.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:05 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

The entire thing was an exercise in futility. It only takes one person to start it back up again. I have a feeling you're not from the US. The majority of Americans will not stand for this much longer. Don't want to risk being exposed? Stay home. It's that simple.


Completely unscientific nonsense. The entire exercise was necessary (and has been mostly successful) because initial containment failed. There is no other conclusion borne out by epidemiological reality. Feeling salty over inconvenience does not change intrinsic knowledge.


I love how you always criticize me but drink up whatever the so called experts tell you. The same ones who said we would only need to lay low for two weeks. They've gotten many things wrong but I don't see you tearing into them. The WHO is corrupt and it's not just the US calling them out.


Our experts got many things wrong *while never* professing to have all the answers - that’s what science is - continual observation and analysis until all facts are known. None of the experts made definitive statements - everything was couched in ‘based on what we know’ and ‘we don’t have enough data to say blah blah’. Not their fault if you or your preferred media are hard of hearing.

The WHO is an entirely different issue as they are a global body eternally compromised by conflicts of interest.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
speedking
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:53 am

Aesma wrote:
speedking wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Communism has of course nothing to do with it.

However all Chinese are brainwashed from birth, so the analogy with Germany is of limited use.


Got a red badge? Suggest get rid of it, the world is coming after them soon.


I think communism is a nice idea, but impractical. I also think there is nothing communist about communist China. Billionaires and communism don't go hand in hand.


Incredible. Do you think Lenin or Stalin were just poor men? They also killed ten times more people than Hitler. Communism has never been for the people but only for power. This is exactly what is happening in China. Communism.

The communists also pose as some kind of intellectuals. Believe in science. Guess they don't believe in Darwin's evolution theory. Survival of the fittest. Instead they bow to some communist manifesto that everybody is equal.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:28 am

So anyway, some good visuals coming out now of how NIH death estimates were revised as success with distancing was observed in the US:

Image

To quote Harvard’s Doc Ding: In public health, if something works ➡️ LESS PEOPLE DIE or NOTHING HAPPENS.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 12195?s=21
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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seahawk
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:52 am

All those measures buy time, time to know more about the virus and time to find a drug that works.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:14 am

PPVRA wrote:
WHO and CDC never discussed providing international test kits to the US, global health agency says

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/health/w ... index.html


It’s an older article from March 18. I hadn’t seen it, but it answered a couple of questions of mine and raised a few others.

Apparently, there’s no such thing as a “WHO test kit”.


Of course there isn´t, there was a WHO recommended test that worked well. That test protocol was made available to all interested parties free of charge on January 16th and still is.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tommy1808
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:22 am

speedking wrote:
Aesma wrote:
speedking wrote:

Got a red badge? Suggest get rid of it, the world is coming after them soon.


I think communism is a nice idea, but impractical. I also think there is nothing communist about communist China. Billionaires and communism don't go hand in hand.


Incredible. Do you think Lenin or Stalin were just poor men? They also killed ten times more people than Hitler. Communism has never been for the people but only for power. This is exactly what is happening in China. Communism.


so, communism never existed, and was only used for power grabs, yet you insist communists did that? That is a tat illogical.

The communists also pose as some kind of intellectuals. Believe in science. Guess they don't believe in Darwin's evolution theory. Survival of the fittest. Instead they bow to some communist manifesto that everybody is equal.


The statement makes very clear that you are the one that doesn´t understand the theory of Evolution. "Survival of the fittest" does not mean what you think it means.

The unlucky substitution of „survival of the fittest“ for „natural selection“ had done much harm in consequence of the ambiguity of „fittest“ - which many take to mean „best“ or „highest“ - whereas „natural selection“ may work toward degradation.....


Thomas Henry Huxley, NY, 1901

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tommy1808
Posts: 13712
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:35 am

DocLightning wrote:
DIRECTFLT wrote:
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation wants everyone in the world to get injected with the COVID-19 Vaccine as soon as it can be developed and produced>>>>

Who wants to be first in line?????


*raises hand*


and i guess plenty would be happy to help in that way

I mean, I'm only a physician, former molecular biologist/virologist, and vaccine expert. What the hell do I know? Obviously, I'll want to do my own technical reading about the vaccine before I get in line, but assuming that there is at least a plausible path, I'll sign up as a test subject.

I have an autoimmune disease and take a class of medication called a TNF-alpha inhibitor, so I probably won't qualify for any trials.


That leads to a layman´s question...... a friend of mine gets sulfasalazine for her arthritis and she asked if that is a bit like hydroxychloroquine. My instant reaction is nope. But i have no medical knowledge to dismiss that, but i still looked the stuff up. Turns out both are disease-modifying antirheumatic drug, and Wiki says hydroxychoroquine works by "TNF-alpha, induce apoptosis of inflammatory cells and decrease chemotaxis" and for the sulfasalazine "Suppression of IL-1 & TNF-alpha, induce apoptosis of inflammatory cells and increase chemotactic factors".... which makes me wonder... why is the one seriously considered as a Covid-19 support treatment, but the other isn´t. Who to ask on here if not you.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Derico
Posts: 4423
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:52 am

The US doesn't follow the WHO so how can they blame them now for the situation inside their country. This is the worst kind of shirking responsibility Will someone on this planet ever stand up to this guy and call him out? Anyone doesn't want not to be a hero?

Has this guy ever owned up to any mistake or wrong decision anytime in his entire unspeakable life?
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
GDB
Posts: 13816
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:30 am

That leads to a layman´s question...... a friend of mine gets sulfasalazine for her arthritis and she asked if that is a bit like hydroxychloroquine. My instant reaction is nope. But i have no medical knowledge to dismiss that, but i still looked the stuff up. Turns out both are disease-modifying antirheumatic drug, and Wiki says hydroxychoroquine works by "TNF-alpha, induce apoptosis of inflammatory cells and decrease chemotaxis" and for the sulfasalazine "Suppression of IL-1 & TNF-alpha, induce apoptosis of inflammatory cells and increase chemotactic factors".... which makes me wonder... why is the one seriously considered as a Covid-19 support treatment, but the other isn´t. Who to ask on here if not you.

I am on both of those, as well as Methotrexate. Not that I am an expert, or even any kind of doctor, however what I am not doing is go around thinking, 'maybe being (back) on Hydroxcloroquine might make me less prone to Covid-19 or if I am exposed neutralize it'.
Since I am on a low dose, it's a disease modifier as well as the other two, added over the years, my diagnoses with Rheumatoid Arthritis goes back 20 years.
The reason should be fairly obvious, you don't thrust a snake oil salesman. You should trust your own doctors. The reason I am still relatively fit 20 years into a progressive, incurable illness is by following their advice. Shit, I've never even googled about it, since each case is different, requires varying responses and it's not good getting freaked out by worst cases highlighted.

This threat to those much reliant on me for Trump's miracle cure, is real, since his stupid verbal shitting has caused a run on it, quite apart from any side affects taking something without a prescription. Last year when I went back it having taken it before between 2005-11, I was required to go to an eye specialist to check that Hydroxychlorquine was not affecting potentially affecting there, this was not required back in 2005, however new research has shown in some it can. In my case no problem but it illustrates how even a med used for 85 years can have new info/uncertainties.
This minor illustration shows just how reckless the POS in the White House is.
 
tommy1808
Posts: 13712
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:40 am

GDB wrote:
This minor illustration shows just how reckless the POS in the White House is.


Yeah.... not just POS, a Mass-Manslaughter by now..... .13k dead because of him, we may call him Osama bin Trump.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
T4thH
Posts: 1101
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:14 am

The first (reliable) results of the first immune testing are now live published. Now, means now, news meeting is still live ongoing in TV., Test results are form district "Heinsberg" in Germany, in this case from the city "Gangelt" , where there was the famous big carnival party with more than 200 cases, the first hot spot area in Germany. Trial is performed by University hospital of Bonn.

Some numbers of the first results, they are still working on further results:
>1000 have participated from 400 households. Numbers are statistically adequate for reliable results.
Infection rate is around 15% in Heinsberg district/Gangelt, so 15% is now immune.
Rate, prior identified in Gangelt by virus test: 5% Gangelt is one of the areas globally with highest number of performed tests.
For herd immunity, a 60% rate will be needed.

Death rate is 0.37%

So now we have the first "reliable" death rate.

Source is in German:
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/panorama/id_87665772/coronavirus-news-heinsberg-studie-virologe-stellt-erste-ergebnisse-vor.html
 
yonahleung
Posts: 75
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:55 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:51 am

T4thH wrote:
The first (reliable) results of the first immune testing are now live published. Now, means now, news meeting is still live ongoing in TV., Test results are form district "Heinsberg" in Germany, in this case from the city "Gangelt" , where there was the famous big carnival party with more than 200 cases, the first hot spot area in Germany. Trial is performed by University hospital of Bonn.

Some numbers of the first results, they are still working on further results:
>1000 have participated from 400 households. Numbers are statistically adequate for reliable results.
Infection rate is around 15% in Heinsberg district/Gangelt, so 15% is now immune.
Rate, prior identified in Gangelt by virus test: 5% Gangelt is one of the areas globally with highest number of performed tests.
For herd immunity, a 60% rate will be needed.

Death rate is 0.37%

So now we have the first "reliable" death rate.

Source is in German:
https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/panorama/id_87665772/coronavirus-news-heinsberg-studie-virologe-stellt-erste-ergebnisse-vor.html

This is very surprising. The infection rate is high at 15%. How did they end up with this very high rate of infection in the first place?
Secondly do we have the number of serious cases? This is so different from the situation in Spain or Italy that either the drop-off in Spain or Italy is due to herd immunity or that we are having a very different strain.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2696
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:31 am

tommy1808 wrote:
GDB wrote:
This minor illustration shows just how reckless the POS in the White House is.


Yeah.... not just POS, a Mass-Manslaughter by now..... .13k dead because of him, we may call him Osama bin Trump.

best regards
Thomas


What must you think of those NY Democrats claiming that NYC had a very low chance of being hit by the coronavirus and then encouraged people to ride the subways and attend big parades?
Last edited by TTailedTiger on Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:42 am, edited 1 time in total.

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