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RJMAZ
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:11 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
... and then you have to go and plant other versions of the virus back into the wild, as otherwise selective breeding is detectable.

Or just plant the virus into a few wild animals at the local wet market a few miles from the lab. Simples.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:27 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
... and then you have to go and plant other versions of the virus back into the wild, as otherwise selective breeding is detectable.

Or just plant the virus into a few wild animals at the local wet market a few miles from the lab. Simples.


Nope, you have to plant the right mutations in the right amount of wild animals, with the right geographical distribution, otherwise it being man made is detectable.

I guess you missed that I wrote "other versions of the virus", not "the virus".

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:53 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Nope, you have to plant the right mutations in the right amount of wild animals, with the right geographical distribution, otherwise it being man made is detectable.

I guess you missed that I wrote "other versions of the virus", not "the virus".

Best regards
Thomas

Have western scientists collected wild bats around China or Asia and found them to be infected with COVID19?

Please provide a source if they have. I'm fairly certain there is no solid original naturally source outside of Wuhan. The lack of COVID19 in bats in Asia means it was most likely placed into the wet market and mutated inside a lab.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:27 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Nope, you have to plant the right mutations in the right amount of wild animals, with the right geographical distribution, otherwise it being man made is detectable.

I guess you missed that I wrote "other versions of the virus", not "the virus".

Best regards
Thomas

Have western scientists collected wild bats around China or Asia and found them to be infected with COVID19?

Please provide a source if they have. I'm fairly certain there is no solid original naturally source outside of Wuhan. The lack of COVID19 in bats in Asia means it was most likely placed into the wet market and mutated inside a lab.


Just no

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:43 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Nope, you have to plant the right mutations in the right amount of wild animals, with the right geographical distribution, otherwise it being man made is detectable.

I guess you missed that I wrote "other versions of the virus", not "the virus".

Best regards
Thomas

Have western scientists collected wild bats around China or Asia and found them to be infected with COVID19?

Please provide a source if they have. I'm fairly certain there is no solid original naturally source outside of Wuhan. The lack of COVID19 in bats in Asia means it was most likely placed into the wet market and mutated inside a lab.


Just no

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Best regards
Thomas


From the article.
Although no animal coronavirus has been identified that is sufficiently similar to have served as the direct progenitor of SARS-CoV-2, the diversity of coronaviruses in bats and other species is massively undersampled.

And another part:

Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here.

So basically, assumptions cause at this point cause nobody REALLY knows. What they have so far points to natural but they can't really find anything similar out there.

And in fact those words make this a lab created virus theory stand.
I wish to know financing background of people that wrote the article but I'm too lazy to go and research that.

I don't think you even read the article Tommy but cheers for sharing.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:09 pm

tommy1808 wrote:

You just proved me right with that link.

Thanks for playing.
 
art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:22 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
Have western scientists collected wild bats around China or Asia and found them to be infected with COVID19?

Please provide a source if they have. I'm fairly certain there is no solid original naturally source outside of Wuhan. The lack of COVID19 in bats in Asia means it was most likely placed into the wet market and mutated inside a lab.


Just no

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Best regards
Thomas


From the article.
Although no animal coronavirus has been identified that is sufficiently similar to have served as the direct progenitor of SARS-CoV-2, the diversity of coronaviruses in bats and other species is massively undersampled.

And another part:

Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here.

So basically, assumptions cause at this point cause nobody REALLY knows. What they have so far points to natural but they can't really find anything similar out there.

And in fact those words make this a lab created virus theory stand.
I wish to know financing background of people that wrote the article but I'm too lazy to go and research that.

I don't think you even read the article Tommy but cheers for sharing.


Also from the article:

Thus, the high-affinity binding of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to human ACE2 is most likely the result of natural selection on a human or human-like ACE2 that permits another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation.


Sure, nobody knows for certain how this new virus came to be. Neither scientists looking at vtiruses nor you speculating about its origin.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:33 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
... and then you have to go and plant other versions of the virus back into the wild, as otherwise selective breeding is detectable.

Or just plant the virus into a few wild animals at the local wet market a few miles from the lab. Simples.


Except IIRC it turns out that Patient Zero in Wuhan has NOT even been to Huanan Wet Market, where the first major cluster occurred. Which is why the whole "Made in Wuhan P4 Lab" theory even have credence anyway.

Knowing how quick the virus spreads right now, it wouldn't surprise me that the outbreak at the market occurred bc of people being in close quarters with each other, rather than some animal to human jump.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:54 pm

art wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:


From the article.
Although no animal coronavirus has been identified that is sufficiently similar to have served as the direct progenitor of SARS-CoV-2, the diversity of coronaviruses in bats and other species is massively undersampled.

And another part:

Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here.

So basically, assumptions cause at this point cause nobody REALLY knows. What they have so far points to natural but they can't really find anything similar out there.

And in fact those words make this a lab created virus theory stand.
I wish to know financing background of people that wrote the article but I'm too lazy to go and research that.

I don't think you even read the article Tommy but cheers for sharing.


Also from the article:

Thus, the high-affinity binding of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to human ACE2 is most likely the result of natural selection on a human or human-like ACE2 that permits another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation.


Sure, nobody knows for certain how this new virus came to be. Neither scientists looking at vtiruses nor you speculating about its origin.


Of course not, but I’m not the one pretending that I do like some here. My opinion is pretty clear on this. Every theory stands at this point.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:58 pm

art wrote:
I am struck by the case outcome data showing

USA: 60% survival, 40% fatality
Spain: 81% survival, 19% fatality
Italy: 64% survival, 36% fatality
France: 65% survival, 35% fatality
Germany: 95% survival, 5% fatality

Even if the data are gathered solely from people tested after being taken to a hospital, how plausible is it that death rates from COVID-19 infection will turn out to be in the 0.5%-1.5% range mooted by the experts?


Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


I think that is exactly what the fatality rate is as the range of symptoms mean there are many asymptomatic and mild cases that aren't tested and might already be resolved. If this becomes like the flu where the virus mutates every year the mortality will drop in line with the flu at about 0.1% as there will be a degree of herd and partial immunity and treatments.

The health experts and politicians are being cautious because in the short term no one will blame them. In the long term I think a lot of us might remember this come election time. Saying all of this someone like Trump is a total buffoon, but putting every bit of faith in health experts also has effects that no one is talking about or its not getting attention. Doctors and public health official care about mitigating the spread of covid19, I doubt their minds are on much else at the moment. I also want them to be honest, they won't lift any of this unless the new case load is 0 like in China.

However I am seeing the seams start to crack and a lot of libertarians are speaking up about what is seen as a huge overreach of government powers at least in Canada and the Swedish way is becoming looked at more.

I seldom hold right wing positions but I am starting to take comfort that right wing politicians, journalists and media personalities are questioning if this makes sense to keep everyone inside. Especially if these measures go on and its in the 90's outside (or high 80's for Americans) and the case load day to day is dropping.
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AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:17 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
I seldom hold right wing positions but I am starting to take comfort that right wing politicians, journalists and media personalities are questioning if this makes sense to keep everyone inside. Especially if these measures go on and its in the 90's outside (or high 80's for Americans) and the case load day to day is dropping.


And specially when the overall solution to this virus would be a vaccine and we are 12 to 18 months away from that.

I understand we have over reacted in shutting this down, but this virus will stick around, we would have to learn to live with it and carry on with our lives as much as we can. We can't hide under a cave for months or more than a year, we have never done this and I highly doubt despite the dangers this virus is to the population, I think we can use our heads and find mitigation strategies that don't mean shutting the world. Technology has improved significantly since the last major epidemic (1918) time to put it to good use.

Those who can't go out, or won't because of fear, they aren't obligated to do so if they don't wish to.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:25 pm

Also this:
What is China trying to hide if true?
https://twitter.com/chinainfocusntd/sta ... 52160?s=21
Last edited by PixelPilot on Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:29 pm

art wrote:
I am struck by the case outcome data showing

USA: 60% survival, 40% fatality
Spain: 81% survival, 19% fatality
Italy: 64% survival, 36% fatality
France: 65% survival, 35% fatality
Germany: 95% survival, 5% fatality

Even if the data are gathered solely from people tested after being taken to a hospital, how plausible is it that death rates from COVID-19 infection will turn out to be in the 0.5%-1.5% range mooted by the experts?

Look at Australia. I would say we have found 99% of the infected people in the country. Our numbers give the true accurate mortality rate.

2% death rate on closed cases.
98% recovered.
9% of cases required hospital.
4% required ICU.
Total cases is 100 times that of the death rate.

Now any country that has a higher death percentage than Australia it simply means they have more infected people that haven't been tested. Basically they are only testing the most severely ill infected.

Spain has 18,500 deaths. If total cases is 100 times the death rate like in Australia that means spain had 1.85 million infected. That is really bad. They have mainly found the infected with the more severe symptoms.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:38 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
I think we can use our heads and find mitigation strategies that don't mean shutting the world. Technology has improved significantly since the last major epidemic (1918) time to put it to good use.


And what exactly do you suggest? Our public health professionals have already made the key suggestions many states are already considering: testing, testing, and more testing. We need tests to determine who that is ill has COVID, we need antibody serology testing to demonstrate who already has immunity/isn't contagious, and we need contact tracing, so that at-risk populations know who and where to avoid as things start to open back up. These steps are clear, the preparation and coordination so far are not.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:41 pm

On the plus side, Rutgers has developed a less contagious way of obtaining samples for covid testing.
They can do it with Saliva instead of nasal swabs
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04- ... D=ref_fark
Currently, screening for COVID-19 requires a health care worker to take a swab from a patient's nose or throat. For the new saliva test, patients spit into a plastic tube and then give the tube back to a health care worker for laboratory testing.

"This prevents health care professionals from having to actually be in the face of somebody that is symptomatic," Andrew Brooks, Ph.D., who directs the Rutgers lab that developed the test, told the Associated Press.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:49 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
I think we can use our heads and find mitigation strategies that don't mean shutting the world. Technology has improved significantly since the last major epidemic (1918) time to put it to good use.


And what exactly do you suggest? Our public health professionals have already made the key suggestions many states are already considering: testing, testing, and more testing. We need tests to determine who that is ill has COVID, we need antibody serology testing to demonstrate who already has immunity/isn't contagious, and we need contact tracing, so that at-risk populations know who and where to avoid as things start to open back up. These steps are clear, the preparation and coordination so far are not.


Testing is informative but doesn’t do much on it’s own.
It is impossible for the world to stand still as it is now.
People with higher risk should be still considered “quarantined” and stay home while everybody else back to work while practicing social distancing.

I work this whole time. We are very conscious no to get too close to each other, wearing masks and gloves. Office is closed for outside people, communicating only though email. Washing hands a lot and etc. So far so good and we will do our best not to slip.
there’s no cure for this so we have to learn to live with that in mind TILL proven vaccine comes.
Last edited by PixelPilot on Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:54 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
People with higher risk should be still considered “quarantined” and stay home while everybody else back to work while practicing social distancing.


This is not the recommended protocol by epidemiologists, and I have not seen commentators on the left or right widely embracing an 'everyone back to work' view. Who is 'higher risk'? What is the scope of quarantine? What is the distancing guideline for restaurants vs. shopping malls vs. factory work vs. banks etc? Lots of practical matters to consider.
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:40 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

Then I guess the fact that China is actively trying to suppress any spread of research Information on this subject should be viewed as potential attempt at falsifying data.
Go to the source, and source is doing all they can not to show the truth.


That could certainly be said of what's happening there, and I haven't heard anyone in biotech express confidence we'll know the full story at this point. But that doesn't explain your non sequitur.


How's that non sequitur?


I explained the manner in which not all opinions are seen equally in science from a big picture perspective. Your response, instead of talking about those differences between established patterns and extraordinary events, went into side discussion on China's control of information. That does not logically follow from the original point - hence, a non sequitur.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
N757ST
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:46 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
art wrote:
I am struck by the case outcome data showing

USA: 60% survival, 40% fatality
Spain: 81% survival, 19% fatality
Italy: 64% survival, 36% fatality
France: 65% survival, 35% fatality
Germany: 95% survival, 5% fatality

Even if the data are gathered solely from people tested after being taken to a hospital, how plausible is it that death rates from COVID-19 infection will turn out to be in the 0.5%-1.5% range mooted by the experts?

Look at Australia. I would say we have found 99% of the infected people in the country. Our numbers give the true accurate mortality rate.

2% death rate on closed cases.
98% recovered.
9% of cases required hospital.
4% required ICU.
Total cases is 100 times that of the death rate.

Now any country that has a higher death percentage than Australia it simply means they have more infected people that haven't been tested. Basically they are only testing the most severely ill infected.

Spain has 18,500 deaths. If total cases is 100 times the death rate like in Australia that means spain had 1.85 million infected. That is really bad. They have mainly found the infected with the more severe symptoms.


You really think you’ve found everyone? What about the 50% that are asymptomatic? What about the cases that present as GI issues? What about the extremely mild cases that present as a minor cold? If you’ve found everyone why is your country on indefinite lockdown?
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:49 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
I think we can use our heads and find mitigation strategies that don't mean shutting the world. Technology has improved significantly since the last major epidemic (1918) time to put it to good use.


And what exactly do you suggest? Our public health professionals have already made the key suggestions many states are already considering: testing, testing, and more testing. We need tests to determine who that is ill has COVID, we need antibody serology testing to demonstrate who already has immunity/isn't contagious, and we need contact tracing, so that at-risk populations know who and where to avoid as things start to open back up. These steps are clear, the preparation and coordination so far are not.


Its going to take a lot of time to test the entire population 300+ million plus, let alone serology tests.

I suggest, like I mentioned millions of times, those who are vulnerable or at risk, should stay put. The rest of us, use common sense, avoid gathering with too many people etc, work from home those that can, use internet for ordering food and delivery like we do now, etc.

Why can't we use the Swedish method? What's wrong with that method? UK, France and many other nations that don't have the Swedish method have higher deaths per capita than Sweden.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:59 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
The Titanic, that sunk on this day, was due to several factors including those that are close to those of Trump's policy and behaviors.
There was great pressure on the Captain of the Titanic to rush to get to NYC, to minimize time in route to beat out the competition, appease the bosses and the 1st Class passengers (like with airline's 1st Class Pax today) as the real cash cows for profits. That meant going at a much faster speed than should have gone, taking a risky route that put it closer to icebergs and see them in time to steer from them. Today, Trump is trying to race the clock to get 'back to normal' to satisfy his 'bosses' the big business and bribers that put and keep him in office, taking careless chances, offering false hope and lies to do so.


No one can force you to leave your home (unless you are behind on mortgage/lien or taxes) or go to work. So feel free to keep yourself locked up as long as you want. But life isn't worth living the way we are going right now. And the virus isn't nearly as bad as they thought. All those temporary hospitals didn't get patients and are now being dismantled. The rest of us want to enjoy life again.


I plan to live 50 more years, and I'm a firm believer science can make me immortal by then, so even 2 years confined are worth it if the alternative is dying from this.

As I'm a believer in science, I will get out earlier if I'm reasonably convinced that it won't kill me, because we have found out enough about it to combat it well. We're not there yet.

Just like I have no problem jumping out of a perfectly functioning airplane, I trust my chute, and I have a second one just in case.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:04 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Why can't we use the Swedish method? What's wrong with that method? UK, France and many other nations that don't have the Swedish method have higher deaths per capita than Sweden.


You keep banging that Sweden drum. Sweden's deaths are still running at around 1.5 times that of the USA on a per capita basis. With far fewer and smaller conurbations than America, their rate should be much lower than America's. To me that's not an indication of a successful strategy.
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:20 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
I think we can use our heads and find mitigation strategies that don't mean shutting the world. Technology has improved significantly since the last major epidemic (1918) time to put it to good use.


And what exactly do you suggest? Our public health professionals have already made the key suggestions many states are already considering: testing, testing, and more testing. We need tests to determine who that is ill has COVID, we need antibody serology testing to demonstrate who already has immunity/isn't contagious, and we need contact tracing, so that at-risk populations know who and where to avoid as things start to open back up. These steps are clear, the preparation and coordination so far are not.


Its going to take a lot of time to test the entire population 300+ million plus, let alone serology tests.

I suggest, like I mentioned millions of times, those who are vulnerable or at risk, should stay put. The rest of us, use common sense, avoid gathering with too many people etc, work from home those that can, use internet for ordering food and delivery like we do now, etc.

Why can't we use the Swedish method? What's wrong with that method? UK, France and many other nations that don't have the Swedish method have higher deaths per capita than Sweden.


Probably not a good idea to use the Swedish approach. Norway has a similar population density and is faring much better.

Image

Your suggestion is epidemiologically inadequate because we don't know exactly who is vulnerable or at risk. And for people to feel secure, they need good information as flare-ups occur, and the tracking needs to be on-point so we don't needlessly re-shutdown places that have reopened. Testing is the way to provide that.

Interesting that you mention time for testing. If there was a SERIOUS mobilization effort (which would require serious and focused government leadership), I saw a model where it is quite possible to test up to 250 million people in just two weeks once the antibody serology test is available, in combination with the COVID infection test already available of course. For the Apollo program, we were able to mobilize 400,000 engineers and technicians across hundreds of companies in the Moon effort - this mobilization would need to be similar, employing university and private sector resources. To test 250m people in two weeks, you'd need to figure on roughly 17.8m completed tests per day, and at a rate of 60 tests per/technician would require ~295K trained testing staff to administer. Add in the manpower for processing the results, and you'd need another 100K people at least. There are a lot of health professionals already qualified to administer and process serology tests, so it's really just a matter of ramping this type of program up when the test is ready. That would bring tremendous peace of mind to the public as things re-open.
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:30 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Right so how do you want to control the population if you are only testing "when needed".
What does that even mean to test people "when needed".
If there's a hotspot forming then "when needed" was way before it started to spread which means you do need to test everybody at all times to get a shot at a realistic response time.


That is not true epidemiologically. If there are two or three emergent cases in a given organization or small community, the response is contact tracing. Affected individuals can be quickly quarantined. Hence the *precision quarantine* approach I highlighted from David Shaywitz's piece.

PixelPilot wrote:
How do you operate corporations / business if people will be randomly placed in quaratines?


Until there is a vaccine or reliable immunoserology, that's going to happen to businesses anyway once we re-open things. Flexibility will be needed.

No need to poo-poo about and act like these are rocket science questions when epidemiology is an established and mature field of science.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:52 pm

Possibly very bad news from South Korea...

South Korea has identified a growing number of people who make an apparent recovery from the coronavirus only to test positive again, raising fears that the virus is capable of striking the same person more than once.

The Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) reported 124 “relapsed” cases of Covid-19 yesterday, an increase of eight from the day before. Doctors are urgently investigating whether mutations in the virus can prevent patients from acquiring an immunity.


Source (have to accept cookies to access the article):

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coro ... -xrj6pp5z6
Last edited by 777ER on Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Removed a reference post
 
StarAC17
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:05 pm

art wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Infected again and again? Um what? Ever heard of antibodies? We are literally weeks away from having widely available antibody serology tests that can show who is already immune.


Possibly very bad news from South Korea...

South Korea has identified a growing number of people who make an apparent recovery from the coronavirus only to test positive again, raising fears that the virus is capable of striking the same person more than once.

The Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) reported 124 “relapsed” cases of Covid-19 yesterday, an increase of eight from the day before. Doctors are urgently investigating whether mutations in the virus can prevent patients from acquiring an immunity.


Source (have to accept cookies to access the article):

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coro ... -xrj6pp5z6


If this is the case then any vaccine developed using the current way we vaccine which exposing someone to a dead or weakened version of the pathogen to stimulate the production of antibodies will not be useful in this case if the traditional immune response doesn't work.
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art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:18 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
art wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

Infected again and again? Um what? Ever heard of antibodies? We are literally weeks away from having widely available antibody serology tests that can show who is already immune.


Possibly very bad news from South Korea...

South Korea has identified a growing number of people who make an apparent recovery from the coronavirus only to test positive again, raising fears that the virus is capable of striking the same person more than once.

The Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) reported 124 “relapsed” cases of Covid-19 yesterday, an increase of eight from the day before. Doctors are urgently investigating whether mutations in the virus can prevent patients from acquiring an immunity.


Source (have to accept cookies to access the article):

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coro ... -xrj6pp5z6


If this is the case then any vaccine developed using the current way we vaccine which exposing someone to a dead or weakened version of the pathogen to stimulate the production of antibodies will not be useful in this case if the traditional immune response doesn't work.


Yes, possibly disastrous news from South Korea. I hope their CDC finds that these 'relapsed' cases were not in fact free from the virus when they were determined to have recovered.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:21 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

And what exactly do you suggest? Our public health professionals have already made the key suggestions many states are already considering: testing, testing, and more testing. We need tests to determine who that is ill has COVID, we need antibody serology testing to demonstrate who already has immunity/isn't contagious, and we need contact tracing, so that at-risk populations know who and where to avoid as things start to open back up. These steps are clear, the preparation and coordination so far are not.


Its going to take a lot of time to test the entire population 300+ million plus, let alone serology tests.

I suggest, like I mentioned millions of times, those who are vulnerable or at risk, should stay put. The rest of us, use common sense, avoid gathering with too many people etc, work from home those that can, use internet for ordering food and delivery like we do now, etc.

Why can't we use the Swedish method? What's wrong with that method? UK, France and many other nations that don't have the Swedish method have higher deaths per capita than Sweden.


Probably not a good idea to use the Swedish approach. Norway has a similar population density and is faring much better.

Image

Your suggestion is epidemiologically inadequate because we don't know exactly who is vulnerable or at risk. And for people to feel secure, they need good information as flare-ups occur, and the tracking needs to be on-point so we don't needlessly re-shutdown places that have reopened. Testing is the way to provide that.

Interesting that you mention time for testing. If there was a SERIOUS mobilization effort (which would require serious and focused government leadership), I saw a model where it is quite possible to test up to 250 million people in just two weeks once the antibody serology test is available, in combination with the COVID infection test already available of course. For the Apollo program, we were able to mobilize 400,000 engineers and technicians across hundreds of companies in the Moon effort - this mobilization would need to be similar, employing university and private sector resources. To test 250m people in two weeks, you'd need to figure on roughly 17.8m completed tests per day, and at a rate of 60 tests per/technician would require ~295K trained testing staff to administer. Add in the manpower for processing the results, and you'd need another 100K people at least. There are a lot of health professionals already qualified to administer and process serology tests, so it's really just a matter of ramping this type of program up when the test is ready. That would bring tremendous peace of mind to the public as things re-open.


One thing for certain about COVID19, we know almost nothing. The Swedes are building herd immunity, that's their strategy. Perhaps they are taking a big hit now, but a few months down the road to a year, they stop dramatically the deaths once everyone got COVID, no need to wait for a vaccine. Whereas with the current system, we are all hiding from COVID19, we will continuously get deaths until we get a vaccine. We don't know. And maybe down the road we will say that the Swedes were right or wrong, and the rest of the world right or wrong.

But considering they have schools open, have restaurants open, parks etc, and the deaths per capita are lower than Spain, France and the UK, tells me they are getting a hit now which seems rather low with the amount of things working normally, compared to the rest of the countries and with the measures they have enforced.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:54 pm

And now the rural battles have begun.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... -19-186031

They’re also afraid their communities aren’t ready to face a pandemic—and acutely aware of the handicaps they bear as this one arrives. Rural residents tend to be older, less affluent and less healthy than the national average, and fewer of them have health insurance. Long distances to hospitals and labs can spell the difference between life and death with an unpredictable disease that can rapidly turn critical. Rural grocery stores, pharmacies and even hospitals are last in line for supplies that chains and big box stores have special access to
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:10 pm

Potential bad news.
https://www.foxnews.com/science/signifi ... rch-futile

Direct link to PDF for those that are allergic to fox ;)

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:25 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Potential bad news.
https://www.foxnews.com/science/signifi ... rch-futile

Direct link to PDF for those that are allergic to fox ;)

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Yes, that is concerning. However (and I am not attacking you are that you are citing this information) people do need to be aware that the finding is just an initial draft, not properly reviewed as we expect most research we accept as fact needs to be.

This is a decent article on the site the research document cited was posted in:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/scie ... ation.html
[...] preprint servers function as temporary homes that freely disseminate new findings. For scientists on the front lines of the coronavirus response, early glimpses at others’ research helps with study of the virus. But there is a growing audience for these papers that are not yet fully baked, and those readers may not understand the studies’ limitations.


But definitely potential bad news as you state. Hopefully it does not mutate faster than we can manage for an effective vaccine.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:44 pm

Another bit of bad news for those in the US wishing to jump start the economy.

We are looking at a bad day in the US. We are hitting over 2000 deaths in the US yesterday and today, and it looks like the number of new cases will beat out Yesterday.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The active cases is still increasing, and that is not a good sign for ending economic restrictions.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:50 pm

casinterest wrote:
Another bit of bad news for those in the US wishing to jump start the economy.

We are looking at a bad day in the US. We are hitting over 2000 deaths in the US yesterday and today, and it looks like the number of new cases will beat out Yesterday.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The active cases is still increasing, and that is not a good sign for ending economic restrictions.


No such thing as bad news, if you look at the same link there is a graph showing 'daily new cases', it has gone down from a high of 34K, that means there is flattening occurring. Deaths will keep going on since they are a lagging indicator. Someone was diagnosed with COVID19, perhaps they have had it for a week before the positive test comes up, then perhaps 3 weeks after that person unfortunately dies. So its a lagging indicator.

I know you don't wish to jump start the economy because you still have your job. But keep this going longer, even your job no mater how essential and great it is, it can be in danger in a depression. So I hope you consider to be in the group of people that are wishing to "jump start the economy" because all of us will be impacted, everyone.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 8:59 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Another bit of bad news for those in the US wishing to jump start the economy.

We are looking at a bad day in the US. We are hitting over 2000 deaths in the US yesterday and today, and it looks like the number of new cases will beat out Yesterday.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The active cases is still increasing, and that is not a good sign for ending economic restrictions.


No such thing as bad news, if you look at the same link there is a graph showing 'daily new cases', it has gone down from a high of 34K, that means there is flattening occurring. Deaths will keep going on since they are a lagging indicator. Someone was diagnosed with COVID19, perhaps they have had it for a week before the positive test comes up, then perhaps 3 weeks after that person unfortunately dies. So its a lagging indicator.

I know you don't wish to jump start the economy because you still have your job. But keep this going longer, even your job no mater how essential and great it is, it can be in danger in a depression. So I hope you consider to be in the group of people that are wishing to "jump start the economy" because all of us will be impacted, everyone.


Well here is more bad news on it, and I do wish for the economy to start up again, as ultimately all jobs depend on others working, as you so mildly put it.

But the graph and numbers are not lying.

Today is going to be higher than the 26K from yesterday, while flattening is occurring. It will be rough, but there are signs the US is not much closer to being through with this yet. There are some signs that Rural areas may be catching this virus at a higher rate that will offset the gains made in the major cities.

We must remain vigilant much longer, as even if we try to get the economy jump started people may not be ready to go back to spending like they used to.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:11 pm

Yet another day of new cases/deaths in Michigan.
Both African American and Caucasian races are at 40% each in death rates. Unless the 15% unknown is all African American, this is a unique situation.
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html

There was a huge protest in Lansing against shutdown. I think Gov.Whitmer being a VP contender making this political.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 989230001/
https://twitter.com/TimInTheIce/status/ ... 6540933120
https://twitter.com/JeffSpakowski/statu ... 0270045185
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:31 pm

art wrote:
StarAC17 wrote:
art wrote:

Possibly very bad news from South Korea...

Source (have to accept cookies to access the article):

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coro ... -xrj6pp5z6


If this is the case then any vaccine developed using the current way we vaccine which exposing someone to a dead or weakened version of the pathogen to stimulate the production of antibodies will not be useful in this case if the traditional immune response doesn't work.


Yes, possibly disastrous news from South Korea. I hope their CDC finds that these 'relapsed' cases were not in fact free from the virus when they were determined to have recovered.


Since tests aren't very reliable it might be they were falsely tested negative before.

The thread about the USS Roosevelt is closed, so I will report here : 668 French sailors have been tested positive for COVID19, mostly from aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R91). https://news.usni.org/2020/04/15/two-u- ... r-covid-19 Not all test results have come back so it will probably be more. At least two American sailors are among the sick. The carrier is back at its homeport of Toulon and being disinfected.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 10:50 pm

N757ST wrote:
You really think you’ve found everyone? What about the 50% that are asymptomatic? What about the cases that present as GI issues? What about the extremely mild cases that present as a minor cold? If you’ve found everyone why is your country on indefinite lockdown?
I said 99%.

With 6447 known cases if there was another 6000 people asymptomatic out there then they would be infecting people who would then show symptoms and appear in hospital. With 41 new cases yesterday and 46 new cases the day before means there can not be thousands of unknown cases.

Australia has a very light and mostly optional lockdown. The building industry hasn't even slowed down. I have been to the hardware store multiple times this week, I've been to McDonalds and there is no limits.

Australia is the perfect example of how to deal with this. Get on top of it early, do lots of tests and 80% of the economy is still running.
 
Jalap
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:01 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
One thing for certain about COVID19, we know almost nothing. The Swedes are building herd immunity, that's their strategy. Perhaps they are taking a big hit now, but a few months down the road to a year, they stop dramatically the deaths once everyone got COVID, no need to wait for a vaccine.

You do realise that there are measures in Sweden as well? And that the people in Sweden seem to be very responsible about following the measures?
In Sweden, currently 1 person infects about 2 others. Meaning the virus will keep on spreading exponentially. Albeit with a relatively low exponent, thanks to their measures. Yet with an infection rate of almost 2, they still risk getting into serious trouble.

To give you an idea, this graph shows you something to think about. The full lines are the model of the amount of hospitalisations, people in ICU and deaths in case there were no measures taken at all in Belgium. Meaning: one person would infect 4 or 5 others.
The dots are the actual numbers. They follow the curve for a while, then you see the measures' effect. Measures in Belgium made the infection rate drop from about 5 to about 0,6 (though possibly 0,8 now).

Image

You say we know almost nothing about COVID19. Yet one thing we are very good at, is building a model to make projections. Do you see the blue, red an black lines go up? Do you notice the difference with the dots? On April 10th, the measures in Belgium had already saved 8200 lives. People alive today that would have been dead without the measures. The number of saved lives today will probably be in the tens of thousands.
This for a small country like Belgium. Imagine those numbers in the USA.

Also, Belgium yesterday:
Image

Sweden 4 days ago:
Image

Note that the lines in Belgium go down. And even with our measures, we'll be looking at 10.000 deaths easily.
The lines in Sweden keep going up on the logarithmic scale.
USA is rather similar to Sweden. People who believe that there won't be more than 60 or 70k deaths in the USA are VERY optimistic or expecting a miracle.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:05 am

Take it as you wish. Quite possible if you think about it.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/corona ... us-sources

I'm actually glad Trump is putting pressure on WHO. Somebody might crack in there and spill some beans.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:14 am

Image
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:35 am

Aesma wrote:
Image

Exactly.

I've been laughing at the people that cluelessly state "Why were the projections so far off? Why were we so afraid?"

I mean seriously, people who are otherwise intelligent start parroting drivel or they truly don't understand what safety measures in general are and how they work.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:11 am

Tugger wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Image

Exactly.

I've been laughing at the people that cluelessly state "Why were the projections so far off? Why were we so afraid?"

I mean seriously, people who are otherwise intelligent start parroting drivel or they truly don't understand what safety measures in general are and how they work.

Tugg


Or they just plain flunked Stat 101!
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
ltbewr
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:42 am

This Associated Press article brings up how China itself, with an ugly mix of greed, fear of economic affects, bad politics, whistleblowers knowing they would get sent to a death camp and culture. The delay of at least 6 days to warn the public of this virus outbreak allowed it to get out of control in Wuhan and now around the world.
https://news.yahoo.com/china-didnt-warn ... 57679.html
 
tommy1808
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:43 am

Tugger wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Image

Exactly.

I've been laughing at the people that cluelessly state "Why were the projections so far off? Why were we so afraid?"


And the model that was just cried about on Fox, friends and here put the number of expected dead at ~1900 for yesterday, in the real world it was 2400. That model also predicts 65k dead, with a range total till August being 30 to 175k. Currently already 31k 3.5 month before the end of the prediction.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

I wonder why that complaining suddenly stopped... :roll:

In the mean time, the Whitehouse asked Taiwan for Masks mid March, while telling the public they don't need masks. That also tells us the PPE situation was so dire that even the WH couldn't source any in the US, despite the public statements to the contrary they could not have possibly missed they couldn't get any themselves.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

WP wrote:
That was a lesson learned. We did look at buying some, but couldn’t find available supply.


Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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SierraPacific
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:07 am

I do have a question for those who are proponents of keeping the economy closed indefinitely or until cases hit a certain metric, what happens when hospital systems go under from lack of revenue? Here in Arizona, we are currently furloughing healthcare workers and support services at practically every hospital and it is only getting worse every day. We are rapidly (within the next couple of weeks) reaching catastrophic levels of economic damage.

This just simply isn't sustainable for months or even weeks
 
IgorD
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:48 am

The Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment reports that 3% of blood samples in blood donor groups show antibodies for the coronavirus. This is a preliminary result. The IRVM also says that the level of antibodies varies and correlates with the severity of the symptoms of infection.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6045092/r ... virus.html

At this moment the share of people that had the infection is probably higher, as it takes a few weeks to develop detectable ImG antibodies.

This seems to be somewhat hopeful news.
Last edited by IgorD on Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:57 am

RJMAZ wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Nope, you have to plant the right mutations in the right amount of wild animals, with the right geographical distribution, otherwise it being man made is detectable.

I guess you missed that I wrote "other versions of the virus", not "the virus".

Best regards
Thomas

Have western scientists collected wild bats around China or Asia and found them to be infected with COVID19?

Please provide a source if they have. I'm fairly certain there is no solid original naturally source outside of Wuhan. The lack of COVID19 in bats in Asia means it was most likely placed into the wet market and mutated inside a lab.



The thing I'd like to remind people is we still have not found the natural reservoir for Ebola or Marburg. It was very shocking for a lot of us to see Ebola jump from Central Africa to West Africa, seemingly without any rhyme or reason. Yeah, bats were suspected, but no one has the proof. We may never find the proof for novel coronavirus either. Viruses mutate too quickly.

One thing I can say is for the people talking about "escaped from a lab" or a "bioweapon" is to look at the 1977 H1N1 flu outbreak. Read up on that. It's widely assumed to be a lab accident because the genome did not change since 1950. Normal viruses circulating would have changed multiple times.

Also, look at abnormal infections like what happened with Ebola. Ebolavirus can persist in seminal fluid or vaginal fluid and a number of other places in the body where it can reinfect someone else who comes in contact with these fluids. Immunity, if even detected, may only last for as little as 9 months. So this is a very complex thing.
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:59 am

SierraPacific wrote:
I do have a question for those who are proponents of keeping the economy closed indefinitely or until cases hit a certain metric, what happens when hospital systems go under from lack of revenue? Here in Arizona, we are currently furloughing healthcare workers and support services at practically every hospital and it is only getting worse every day. We are rapidly (within the next couple of weeks) reaching catastrophic levels of economic damage.

This just simply isn't sustainable for months or even weeks


The government must step in. There is no other solution.
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:10 am

IgorD wrote:
The Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment reports that 3% of blood samples in blood donor groups show antibodies for the coronavirus. This is a preliminary result. The IRVM also says that the level of antibodies varies and correlates with the severity of the symptoms of infection.

At this moment the share of people that had the infection is probably higher, as it takes a few weeks to develop detectable ImG antibodies.

This seems to be somewhat hopeful news.


That is encouraging to hear. Very crudely, and very speculatively, if 5% of donors were infected in February and subsequently recovered, it might take a year or less to hit herd immunity levels. That would be a big help in contending with this virus if the population cannot be innoculated with an effective vaccine within a year.

SierraPacific wrote:
Here in Arizona, we are currently furloughing healthcare workers and support services at practically every hospital and it is only getting worse every day.


Like someone above said, government intervention. I suggest designate healthcare as a key industry and allow all to keep working.
Last edited by art on Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:25 am, edited 2 times in total.

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