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dtw2hyd
Posts: 8338
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:24 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
art wrote:
UK reports that non-total lockdown measures are being observed by nearly all. R0 is estimated to have fallen significantly below 1. Lots of spare hospital bed capacity at the moment. Lockdown to continue with another review in 3 weeks.

In a survey of 3430 adults asking if they would support a further 3 week lockdown, results were:

Strongly support: 67%
Somewhat support: 24%
Strongly oppose: 3%
Somewhat oppose: 2%
Do not know: 4%

Source: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/su ... 16/73305/1

I wonder how these UK figures of 91% for continued lockdown, 5% against compare with the views of the public in other countries.


Michigan had actual protesters yesterday in favor of reopening so I'm guessing the numbers in US won't be this wholesome.


Those protests are mostly politically motivated because Gov.Whitmer is a VP contender.
Several Sheriffs and private citizens filed lawsuits against lock down.
All these supposed to be for not allowing to buy garden supplies.

We are still on up-slope, haven't even reached the plateau, too soon to talk reopening the state.

Like I said, Whitmer should take her name off the VP list. Good for the state and for her political future. For that matter any VP contender who has a job right now should drop-out.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Newark727
Posts: 2002
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:39 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
The bottom line is that Trump response is not perfect, but so of his highly "criticized" (at least by the media...) call did turn out to be the correct thing to do. Travel ban of China then Europe especially was the right call to make, albeit in the latter case, a little bit too late.


People keep saying this, but the devil is in the details. Since they only tested for what country's passport you were holding, the first travel bans were never complete enough to stop the infection arriving, and they couldn't have been, given that there were Americans who couldn't stay abroad indefinitely, so the real crux of the matter was testing the ones who did arrive and being ready for the location and magnitude of the virus' spread.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1037
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:03 pm

Good news from Germany for Germany. the reproduction number (R) is now below 1. Yesterday it was the first day below 1 (0.9), today it is at 0.7 (limits of variation are at 0.5 to 0.8).
https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/22-36-RKI-Reproduktionszahl-sinkt-unter-eins--article21626512.html
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3520
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:59 pm

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/ear ... treatment/

Haven't seen this posted yet.

Gilead's Remdesivir seems to be showing more and more promises against the nCoV, with a clinical trial supposedly being successful.

Yes, it is still too early to make a full conclusion, but it is another step forward.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1037
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:26 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

Haven't seen this posted yet.

Gilead's Remdesivir seems to be showing more and more promises against the nCoV, with a clinical trial supposedly being successful.

Yes, it is still too early to make a full conclusion, but it is another step forward.

Yes, also these results for Remdesivir are again promising; and with rising numbers of patients treated, test and trials ongoing or results of single patients in compassionate use published, it seems, the results are even getting better and better.
In difference of something else (which according to some results, I have seen,seems even to prolong hospitalization and slightly reduce survival, in higher concentration to be a killer with bad side effects), it can be a real "game changer". Pretty sure, we all know, I am talking about, I need not to name it.

Hope to see soon the complete results of the on-going clinical trials and hope to see the promising results confirmed.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8338
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:28 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

Haven't seen this posted yet.

Gilead's Remdesivir seems to be showing more and more promises against the nCoV, with a clinical trial supposedly being successful.

Yes, it is still too early to make a full conclusion, but it is another step forward.


Wuhan Institute of Virology applied for patent. Also BioGene a Chinese company successfully copied Gilead's version.

So take success stories with a truck load of salt.
All posts are just opinions.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3520
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:45 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

Haven't seen this posted yet.

Gilead's Remdesivir seems to be showing more and more promises against the nCoV, with a clinical trial supposedly being successful.

Yes, it is still too early to make a full conclusion, but it is another step forward.


Wuhan Institute of Virology applied for patent. Also BioGene a Chinese company successfully copied Gilead's version.

So take success stories with a truck load of salt.


Stock speculators are definitely disagreeing with you :).

T4thH wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

Haven't seen this posted yet.

Gilead's Remdesivir seems to be showing more and more promises against the nCoV, with a clinical trial supposedly being successful.

Yes, it is still too early to make a full conclusion, but it is another step forward.

Yes, also these results for Remdesivir are again promising; and with rising numbers of patients treated, test and trials ongoing or results of single patients in compassionate use published, it seems, the results are even getting better and better.
In difference of something else (which according to some results, I have seen,seems even to prolong hospitalization and slightly reduce survival, in higher concentration to be a killer with bad side effects), it can be a real "game changer". Pretty sure, we all know, I am talking about, I need not to name it.

Hope to see soon the complete results of the on-going clinical trials and hope to see the promising results confirmed.


To be really fair, that certain person not to be named also mention Remdesivir as a "miracle drug" (alongside a certain totally unproven drug). Remdesivir is having more and more data to back it up, the other, not so much.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1037
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:37 am

zakuivcustom wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

Haven't seen this posted yet.

Gilead's Remdesivir seems to be showing more and more promises against the nCoV, with a clinical trial supposedly being successful.

Yes, it is still too early to make a full conclusion, but it is another step forward.


Wuhan Institute of Virology applied for patent. Also BioGene a Chinese company successfully copied Gilead's version.

So take success stories with a truck load of salt.


Stock speculators are definitely disagreeing with you :).

T4thH wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

Haven't seen this posted yet.

Gilead's Remdesivir seems to be showing more and more promises against the nCoV, with a clinical trial supposedly being successful.

Yes, it is still too early to make a full conclusion, but it is another step forward.

Yes, also these results for Remdesivir are again promising; and with rising numbers of patients treated, test and trials ongoing or results of single patients in compassionate use published, it seems, the results are even getting better and better.
In difference of something else (which according to some results, I have seen,seems even to prolong hospitalization and slightly reduce survival, in higher concentration to be a killer with bad side effects), it can be a real "game changer". Pretty sure, we all know, I am talking about, I need not to name it.

Hope to see soon the complete results of the on-going clinical trials and hope to see the promising results confirmed.


To be really fair, that certain person not to be named also mention Remdesivir as a "miracle drug" (alongside a certain totally unproven drug). Remdesivir is having more and more data to back it up, the other, not so much.

On the same date, he has stated Hydroxychloroquine/AB combination as miracle drug or to a later date?

The good thing is now, minimum two treatments seems to work accordingly against COVID-19 itself: Remdesivir and passive immunization (so with plasma from former COVID-19 patients, who are healthy again).
Everything else seems not to work, has no or limited benefit or is even a killer. And some treatments are just to early to call, as clinical trials are just now starting or will start soon.

All other treatments/therapies, who are working, are standard treatments/therapies against symptoms of it (e.g. cytokine storm, secondary infections, fever, e.g.). And also here many clinical and therapy optimizing trials are on-going or will now start.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3520
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:46 am

T4thH wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Wuhan Institute of Virology applied for patent. Also BioGene a Chinese company successfully copied Gilead's version.

So take success stories with a truck load of salt.


Stock speculators are definitely disagreeing with you :).

T4thH wrote:
Yes, also these results for Remdesivir are again promising; and with rising numbers of patients treated, test and trials ongoing or results of single patients in compassionate use published, it seems, the results are even getting better and better.
In difference of something else (which according to some results, I have seen,seems even to prolong hospitalization and slightly reduce survival, in higher concentration to be a killer with bad side effects), it can be a real "game changer". Pretty sure, we all know, I am talking about, I need not to name it.

Hope to see soon the complete results of the on-going clinical trials and hope to see the promising results confirmed.


To be really fair, that certain person not to be named also mention Remdesivir as a "miracle drug" (alongside a certain totally unproven drug). Remdesivir is having more and more data to back it up, the other, not so much.

On the same date, he has stated Hydroxychloroquine/AB combination as miracle drug or to a later date?

The good thing is now, minimum two treatments seems to work accordingly against COVID-19 itself: Remdesivir and passive immunization (so with plasma from former COVID-19 patients, who are healthy again).
Everything else seems not to work, has no or limited benefit or is even a killer. And some treatments are just to early to call, as clinical trials are just now starting or will start soon.

All other treatments/therapies, who are working, are standard treatments/therapies against symptoms of it (e.g. cytokine storm, secondary infections, fever, e.g.). And also here many clinical and therapy optimizing trials are on-going or will now start.


Well, I will back off a little and say it is also early to say whether Remdesivir is 100% effective. It is definitely the most promising, though.

EDIT:
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/g ... ivir-trial

I am of the same opinion. Don't jump to conclusion yet, but it is definitely positive news.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2492
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:12 am

casinterest wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
Yes, Trump is definitely trying to shift all the blame to Wuhan Health Organization as if Trump calling this a "hoax" helps one bit. Wuhan Health Organization, though, definitely deserves it.


To refer to this part only, Trump never called Covid a hoax.
Like him or not this is a fact.

In context, Trump did not say in the passage above that the virus itself was a hoax. He instead said that Democrats’ criticism of his administration’s response to it was a hoax

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump ... ly-remark/


Yet Trump did downplay it , and compared the coronavirus to the flu in the same speech.


https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... oronavirus

This includes several doozies includimg
"3) “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear”"


So did Democrats. What's your point?
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3520
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:37 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

To refer to this part only, Trump never called Covid a hoax.
Like him or not this is a fact.

In context, Trump did not say in the passage above that the virus itself was a hoax. He instead said that Democrats’ criticism of his administration’s response to it was a hoax

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump ... ly-remark/


Yet Trump did downplay it , and compared the coronavirus to the flu in the same speech.


https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... oronavirus

This includes several doozies includimg
"3) “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear”"


So did Democrats. What's your point?


Trump = contradicting experts, and well, himself.
Dems = Blindly trust people like WHO and China

A lose-lose situation indeed.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3520
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:52 am

And for those who really think Chinese number is to be believed...

https://hongkongfp.com/2020/04/17/break ... rds-by-50/

And this is a number that actually came from the local govt in Wuhan.

Makes you wonder how much undercounting is going on elsewhere.
 
Chemist
Posts: 746
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:46 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:55 am

Trump's travel restriction was Chinese Nationals only, first US case was already here, and many more US nationals came in from Hubei province. Many other cases streamed in from Italy and Iran. So the travel restrictions really did not do anything.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 2019
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:11 am

It is surreal living in Australia and watching the rest of the world struggle.

21 new cases in Australia yesterday. Easily 90% of the country is open as normal. Empty hospitals waiting for a pandemic that never came. Besides shutting down pubs and clubs this has been an optional lockdown.

Australia is a perfect example of good leadership. They detecting a threat, they informing its citizens and being well educated on average everyone did their job.

Its like the GFC. Australia sailed right through that storm thanks to us having no debt at the start of the crisis.
 
olle
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Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:56 am

Jalap wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
One thing for certain about COVID19, we know almost nothing. The Swedes are building herd immunity, that's their strategy. Perhaps they are taking a big hit now, but a few months down the road to a year, they stop dramatically the deaths once everyone got COVID, no need to wait for a vaccine.

You do realise that there are measures in Sweden as well? And that the people in Sweden seem to be very responsible about following the measures?
In Sweden, currently 1 person infects about 2 others. Meaning the virus will keep on spreading exponentially. Albeit with a relatively low exponent, thanks to their measures. Yet with an infection rate of almost 2, they still risk getting into serious trouble.

To give you an idea, this graph shows you something to think about. The full lines are the model of the amount of hospitalisations, people in ICU and deaths in case there were no measures taken at all in Belgium. Meaning: one person would infect 4 or 5 others.
The dots are the actual numbers. They follow the curve for a while, then you see the measures' effect. Measures in Belgium made the infection rate drop from about 5 to about 0,6 (though possibly 0,8 now).

Image

You say we know almost nothing about COVID19. Yet one thing we are very good at, is building a model to make projections. Do you see the blue, red an black lines go up? Do you notice the difference with the dots? On April 10th, the measures in Belgium had already saved 8200 lives. People alive today that would have been dead without the measures. The number of saved lives today will probably be in the tens of thousands.
This for a small country like Belgium. Imagine those numbers in the USA.

Also, Belgium yesterday:
Image

Sweden 4 days ago:
Image

Note that the lines in Belgium go down. And even with our measures, we'll be looking at 10.000 deaths easily.
The lines in Sweden keep going up on the logarithmic scale.
USA is rather similar to Sweden. People who believe that there won't be more than 60 or 70k deaths in the USA are VERY optimistic or expecting a miracle.


Swedish government consider now that it high chance that the worse hit areas in Sweden like Stockholm now start tosee effect of her immunity. The R number going down after easter weekend.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/b5 ... kimmunitet

Tegnell: "Beginning to see the effect of a herd immunity"

Positive trends - but far from over.

This is how you can summarize the Public Health Agency's location analysis of the corona eruption in Sweden.

- It's starting to stabilize, but it's not time to say anything is over yet, says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

Sweden has now passed over 12,000 confirmed cases of infection and in recent days the number of deaths in covid-19 has been around 60 people per day.

The public health authority had expected a bigger upturn after the Easter weekend, but this has not happened. Rather, the curve has leveled out somewhat, according to Anders Tegnell who says that you are now at a constant level, possibly a certain decline.

- Much depends on us continuing to act as we have done. The reason we ended up here is everyone's joint effort to keep a distance to each other, says Anders Tegnell, who believes that Sweden is close to a level where one can begin to see the effect of a flock immunity.

However, he emphasizes that the total flock immunity is probably a bit ahead.

- We do not know exactly when, it depends on how the development continues.

Stockholm accounts for a large part of the spread of infection in Sweden. But the Stockholm curve is also at a constant level.

Many cases from the elderly
The big problem now is the spread of infection in the elderly care. According to the statistics, half of all deaths in Stockholm can be attributed to elderly residents. In the rest of the country, one third of deaths come from elderly housing.

- This is our big problem area. We have to think about what we can do more to protect the elderly better than we have done so far, says Tegnell.

Places left on intensive care
The number of intensive care units today is 1,077. Approximately 530 people are being cared for in the intensive care unit for corona infection right now, according to Johanna Sandwall, emergency manager at the National Board of Health and Welfare.

- We are roughly at a 20 per cent availability in capacity. That means we are right, we have to keep following this to stay in the curve that exists, she says.

Okay to play matches - for young people
The Public Health Authority also announces that they are changing their recommendations and advice regarding matches and competitions for children and young people. Match games should now be carried out in children's and youth sports, as long as participants are not sick, are crowded together and do not constitute a collection larger than 50 people.

- We have looked at this with competitions and matches and the like especially for children and young people. There, the Swedish Sports Federation has felt that it is unclear. After consulting, we have landed on the fact that it is very important that children and young people are out and about, Tegnell says and continues:

- The differences between matches and competitions are not huge. We now make an exception and say that you can play matches in children's and youth sports.

Match games for seniors are not included.
 
olle
Posts: 2230
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:07 am

What is interesting in the numbers from from Sweden is that more then 50% of the recorded death is from elderly nursing homes. If this is compared to UK, Italy, Germany, Hongkong only calculates people died in hospital. In the case of UK the official numbers might only reflect 2/3 of the real death numbers.

If for example Norway had the same way to calculate death it might not reach Swedish levels but probably danish levels that is around 30% less per million citizen compared to Sweden.

The next difficult decision for Sweden will be that if Sweden gets a herd immunity, there might be a second wave of corona cases when Norway opens its border, and shopping habbits coming back close normal. Norwegian doctors recommends Sweden to not letting Norwegians into the country.
Last edited by olle on Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
olle
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Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:27 am

Right now Norway 0.7 and denmark 0.9 has a "R" number below 1. Sweden is the last days getting down to around 1.0.

But now when these countries opens up the calculation is that most of them with a limited opening will fast reach around a R number of 1.2.



https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/darfo ... nlanderna/

The fact that Sweden has introduced milder coronary restrictions than other countries has attracted attention. Now it turns out that Sweden also reports the spread of infection in other ways than, for example, Norway and Denmark. "That's not a good speech," says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell about the neighboring countries' figures.

How many people each infected person in turn infects is a crucial task when gaining control of the covid-19 spread.

The spread of infection is indicated by the so-called reproduction number, R-zero. If it is above 1, it means that each infectious person infects more than one additional person, and the spread of disease continues. If, on the other hand, it is less than 1, every infectious person infects less than one person on average, and the epidemic is cleared.

Different infections are given different R-zero values. Seasonal flu is around 1.5, ebola at 2 and the new corona virus (sars-cov-2) is believed to be around 2.5.

The most contagious disease affecting humanity is probably the measles, which has an R-zero value of around 15, that is, each infectious person infects on average 15 others.

But: all this applies only at the beginning of a spread of infection. Gradually, different things happen that change the conditions.

On the one hand, parts of the population become immune (or receive vaccines), and on the other, various measures are taken in society to reduce the spread of infection, such as social distancing, closed workplaces and increased hand hygiene. Then you talk about R-e, or just the R-number.

- What matters most is that if it is below 1, the infection will subside. If you do nothing, it is initially 2.5 in this case, and the infection is gaining momentum, says Tom Britton, professor of mathematical statistics with a focus on the spread of infection.

In Norway and Denmark, which have imposed stricter restrictions than Sweden, there is now talk of slowly starting to open society again after Easter. It is believed that they have been given sufficient control over the spread of infection to be able to do so.

Prior to this softening, great focus has been placed on the R's. In Norway, Health Minister Bent Høie said this week that it is now at R 0.7. The Danish infection control authority SSI states that the figure is 0.9.

The goal is not to get too high above 1 when you start to open schools and other things. In Denmark, Kåre Mølbak at SSI says that he has raised a R-figure of 1.2 when the schools open and hope to be able to turn down from there.

In Germany and Austria too, great importance has been placed on the spread of infection.

In Sweden, on the other hand, the Public Health Agency has not regularly used this value in its reporting

- I would think that the Swedish figure right now, at least this past week, is very close to 1, possibly a little over, says Swedish state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

But he is hesitant to use the R-number, because it varies so much, basically day by day.

- You choose two measurement points with four five days in between, and if the spread has increased it is above 1, if it has decreased it is below 1. You have to have quite a few points before you get a stable figure.

- That's not a good speech. It is better to look at the trends. It gives a better picture of where you are going somewhere, says Tegnell.

By Thursday, 9,100 people in Sweden had been confirmed to be infected. These are largely people who have sought care and / or work in healthcare.

In fact, Tom Britton believes that there are significantly more Swedes infected. With the help of mathematical modeling, he concludes that the proportion in Stockholm should now be about 20 percent - not contagious now, but which has the virus or has had it.

- There is a lot of uncertainty, but most people agree that it is a large proportion. The share is not below 10 percent and not over 50, says Britton.

The Public Health Authority has made a first preliminary assessment of how many people may be infected. Of a representative sample of 773 people in the Stockholm area, 2.5 percent were found to carry the virus.

- But the proportion who have had or have the virus is significantly higher. The infection has been around for a while and you carry the virus for maybe five days, says Anders Tegnell.

When asked the question of how many he himself thinks it might actually be about, he answers with "a wild guess":

- The doubling time is 6–7 days, so just based on that, the proportion is probably up to 10 percent now. How many who have had it before is more trixical, we do not really know.
 
User avatar
DIRECTFLT
Posts: 2269
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:46 am

Can You Beat COVID-19 Without a Lockdown? Sweden Is Trying

The Swedish experiment is to accept the coronavirus as a problem to be managed, rather than conclusively defeated. But will it mean more deaths?

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/04 ... -is-trying

And so.... Will the US, OVERALL have less deaths or more deaths, with the lockdown/social distancing/flattening the curve, than if they just the virus run it's course and burn it's way through??
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
tommy1808
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:21 am

olle wrote:
What is interesting in the numbers from from Sweden is that more then 50% of the recorded death is from elderly nursing homes. If this is compared to UK, Italy, Germany, Hongkong only calculates people died in hospital. In the case of UK the official numbers might only reflect 2/3 of the real death numbers.


For Germany that is not true in that sense. Here every death with a corona infection counts as a corona death, even if you die in a car crash after having been tested positive, you have to dig deeper to separate "died from" and "died with" corona cases. If someone dies in a retirement home, or simply at home, without any previous reason to be tested for corona, they will not be tested post mortem and may slip the statistics. Since that pretty much means there where no symptoms or contacts to warrant a test before death, corona death in retirement homes should be roughly as under reported as in the general population.

No English source, but translate should work fine: https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschla ... lt,RtnpYVL

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
art
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Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:27 am

Can anyone explain the mechanism of how the disease spreads with an R0 below 1, please?

Imagine a pool of 1000 infectees and an R0 of 0.7, if you will. Is this what happens:

1000 transmit to 700 Total infections=1700
700 transmit to 490 Total infections=2190
490 transmit to 343 Total infections=2533
343 transmit to 240 Total infections=2773
240 transmit to 168 Total infections=2841
168 transmit to 118 Total infections=2959
etc etc

So 1000 infectees with R0 0.7 results in 3000+ infections?
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 10:33 am

flyguy89 wrote:
I am more than sure that Trump is simply using this as a vehicle to deflect some blame, but in this case I don't care. The WHO have proved themselves, from the most charitable perspective, useless (they couldn't do their job blunting future pandemics, but thank God we have them to put out utterly tone deaf recommendations for the world not to drink while they're locked down :roll: ). Not just the US, but all member nations should be reevaluating their WHO funding.


At the same time the WHO was praising China, Trump was...praising China. Calling Xi his friend etc., which noone else does. And it seems Trump had tons of info available on what was happening on the ground (was he listening ?).
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
dtw2hyd
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Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:07 am

T4thH wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Wuhan Institute of Virology applied for patent. Also BioGene a Chinese company successfully copied Gilead's version.

So take success stories with a truck load of salt.


Stock speculators are definitely disagreeing with you :).

T4thH wrote:
On the same date, he has stated Hydroxychloroquine/AB combination as miracle drug or to a later date?


All the factors put together makes Remdeisvar success story-line highly suspicious.
Both HCQ and Wuhan copied and patented miracle drug are under clinical trails, but why so much talk down on HCQ and so much praise on Remdeisvar. Shouldn't we wait until there is enough data on both.

Why the rush to patent a copied drug? I still have read why Gilead didn't patent this in the USA.
Why the stock market enthusiasm?
How many COVID19 patients HCQ killed?
How many COVID19 patients Remdeisvar saved? Does it has ZERO side-effects?

There is money to be made at the cost of human suffering, and PRC PR has its fingers in it.

It is easy to arm twist Doctors to ignore or write bad things about cheap drugs and recommend expensive drugs. Happens every normal day.
Last edited by dtw2hyd on Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:29 am, edited 3 times in total.
All posts are just opinions.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15199
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:24 am

There are significant questions as to the accuracy as to the numbers dead from Covid-19 collected by and released to the public by governments on all levels around the world. There are a number of factors that cause that inaccuracy. Political pressure. Difficulties and delays in reporting and issuance of death certificates. Only counting those that die in a hospital from Covid-19. Not counting those that die at home or acute care facilities and not tested by coroners. People dying of other illnesses unable to get treatment or afraid to go to a hospital. There are other factors that will cause inaccuracy. That there are fewer dying in general, workplace and car accidents may only mean a slight offset.

To me the closest way to determine the number of those dying of Covid-19 is to compare the number of excess deaths over a norm of the same period a year or an average of the same period over 5 previous years with certain adjustments. Having more accurate numbers of deaths is critical to target hotspots, how, when and where lockdowns can be loosened, adjusted or not to balance the economic and human fallout vs controlling infection rates. Until we get a more accurate number, it will be generally difficult to fight this pandemic.
 
T4thH
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Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:35 am

art wrote:
Can anyone explain the mechanism of how the disease spreads with an R0 below 1, please?

Imagine a pool of 1000 infectees and an R0 of 0.7, if you will. Is this what happens:

1000 transmit to 700 Total infections=1700
700 transmit to 490 Total infections=2190
490 transmit to 343 Total infections=2533
343 transmit to 240 Total infections=2773
240 transmit to 168 Total infections=2841
168 transmit to 118 Total infections=2959
etc etc

So 1000 infectees with R0 0.7 results in 3000+ infections?

R is only the number, how many other persons one infected will in average infect again.
So one patient will in average infect 0.7 other persons. Of course, the total number of infections will further go up (also the increase per day in numbers will slow down) but only important is of course the number of patients, who have an active infection/per day and this curve will start to flat down again.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:58 am

ltbewr wrote:
There are significant questions as to the accuracy as to the numbers dead from Covid-19 collected by and released to the public by governments on all levels around the world. There are a number of factors that cause that inaccuracy. Political pressure. Difficulties and delays in reporting and issuance of death certificates. Only counting those that die in a hospital from Covid-19. Not counting those that die at home or acute care facilities and not tested by coroners. People dying of other illnesses unable to get treatment or afraid to go to a hospital. There are other factors that will cause inaccuracy. That there are fewer dying in general, workplace and car accidents may only mean a slight offset.

To me the closest way to determine the number of those dying of Covid-19 is to compare the number of excess deaths over a norm of the same period a year or an average of the same period over 5 previous years with certain adjustments. Having more accurate numbers of deaths is critical to target hotspots, how, when and where lockdowns can be loosened, adjusted or not to balance the economic and human fallout vs controlling infection rates. Until we get a more accurate number, it will be generally difficult to fight this pandemic.


I think looking at the number of people in ICUs is enough to judge what to do about the virus.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:26 pm

Chemist wrote:
Trump's travel restriction was Chinese Nationals only, first US case was already here, and many more US nationals came in from Hubei province. Many other cases streamed in from Italy and Iran. So the travel restrictions really did not do anything.


First, I will repeat again, the initial travel restriction applied to any non US nationals (with some exemptions) that have been to mainland PRC, not just Chinese nationals.

Second, what was Trump supposed to do? Totally close off US border as early as February? Can you imagine the bipartisan backlash?

Countries like Israel close its border to a lot more countries than US, but even then, Europe was not touched there until much later.

dtw2hyd wrote:
T4thH wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:

Stock speculators are definitely disagreeing with you :).



All the factors put together makes Remdeisvar success story-line highly suspicious.
Both HCQ and Wuhan copied and patented miracle drug are under clinical trails, but why so much talk down on HCQ and so much praise on Remdeisvar. Shouldn't we wait until there is enough data on both.

Why the rush to patent a copied drug? I still have read why Gilead didn't patent this in the USA.
Why the stock market enthusiasm?
How many COVID19 patients HCQ killed?
How many COVID19 patients Remdeisvar saved? Does it has ZERO side-effects?

There is money to be made at the cost of human suffering, and PRC PR has its fingers in it.

It is easy to arm twist Doctors to ignore or write bad things about cheap drugs and recommend expensive drugs. Happens every normal day.


Stock market speculation/manipulation? I can bet that some exist also.

BTW, care to post a link or two regarding the Wuhan counterfeit Remdesivir?

Scorpio wrote:
Can we please leave dumb conspiracies and Fake News out of this thread?


Agree. Those links scream fake news all over.
 
melpax
Posts: 2047
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:13 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:28 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
It is surreal living in Australia and watching the rest of the world struggle.

21 new cases in Australia yesterday. Easily 90% of the country is open as normal. Empty hospitals waiting for a pandemic that never came. Besides shutting down pubs and clubs this has been an optional lockdown.

Australia is a perfect example of good leadership. They detecting a threat, they informing its citizens and being well educated on average everyone did their job.

Its like the GFC. Australia sailed right through that storm thanks to us having no debt at the start of the crisis.


Even though we're at stage 3, a lot of this certainly hasn't been 'optional'. Here in Melbourne, we're only allowed to leave the house to buy food & 'supplies', go to work or study that can't be done at home, excercise - and no, you can't drive an hour to a park, has to be close to home, and to seek medical attention & 'caring duties'. No just 'going for a drive', Cops are heavily policing this, and the social distancing measures with the threat of AUD$1600 fines. Feels very much like undeclared martial law. Went to my local mall last Saturday for a couple of things, at least half the stores were closed, this included a 4-level department store. The only stores that were somewhat busy were the supermarkets & fresh food stores. Golf courses have been ordered closed as well as all other sporting facilities. No fishing. Can't leave the country without permission, can't catch up with friends, even at private homes - a group of 10 friends were all fined last night for having a poker game at a private home. Parks & bike/walking tracks are patrolled by the police to enforce social distancing measures - no more than 2 people from different households can gather. State borders have been closed, with permission need to cross.

As much of a PITA this has been, we are starting to turn the curve. All going well, some of the restrictions might be slowly eased in 4 weeks time, however it looks like international travel might not restart until next year, depending on the situation. Things started to get real here when the reports of the Italian ICU's were played here, that put the frightners into a lot of people here.
Essendon - Whatever it takes......
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8338
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:42 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
BTW, care to post a link or two regarding the Wuhan counterfeit Remdesivir?

They sought to secure this patent “out of national interest” and noted they were not interested in enforcement should foreign pharma companies seek to collaborate in China to stop the pandemic. An IP attorney based in Shanghai, China observed that the Wuhan Institute of Virology would be wise to secure approval from the drug’s maker and owner—Gilead.

https://www.trialsitenews.com/wuhan-ins ... emdesivir/

China’s BrightGene has successfully produced remdesivir, an experimental treatment for coronavirus, however, patents for the drug are currently held by the American company Gilead.

http://www.gabionline.net/Generics/News ... remdesivir
All posts are just opinions.
 
T4thH
Posts: 1037
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:17 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:49 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
T4thH wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:

Stock speculators are definitely disagreeing with you :).



All the factors put together makes Remdeisvar success story-line highly suspicious.
Both HCQ and Wuhan copied and patented miracle drug are under clinical trails, but why so much talk down on HCQ and so much praise on Remdeisvar. Shouldn't we wait until there is enough data on both.

Why the rush to patent a copied drug? I still have read why Gilead didn't patent this in the USA.
Why the stock market enthusiasm?
How many COVID19 patients HCQ killed?
How many COVID19 patients Remdeisvar saved? Does it has ZERO side-effects?

There is money to be made at the cost of human suffering, and PRC PR has its fingers in it.

It is easy to arm twist Doctors to ignore or write bad things about cheap drugs and recommend expensive drugs. Happens every normal day.


Are you a fan of conspiracy, just as question? Perhaps you shall not believe all source, or even better, just avoid some of them.

How many COVID19 patients HCQ killed?

It does not work in this way.
Clinical trials and compassionate use of Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine have shown increased problems with the heart in general. These are even so worse, that clinical trials have been even stopped because of the side effects. So the safety for CQ and HCQ is not OK and these results seems to be even statistically "significant".

So even warnings have been announced:
https://newsroom.heart.org/news/caution-recommended-on-covid-19-treatment-with-hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-for-patients-with-cardiovascular-disease-6797342
Stopped use of QC in Sweden regarding side effects:
https://www.newsweek.com/swedish-hospitals-chloroquine-covid-19-side-effects-1496368
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8199477/Swedish-hospitals-stop-prescribing-chloroquine-coronavirus-patients-adverse-effects.html
Stop of high dose trial in Brazil after 11 death.
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-brazil-trial-for-drug-chloroquine-touted-by-trump-stopped-after-11-patients-die

Till now no benefit has been shown for CQ or HCQ in clinical trials. Till now all results do not show any benefit, even possibly a light downside, like a prolonged hospitalization or ventilation time, time in ICU e.g. but the downside differences are so small, that they are till now not statistically significant.

How many COVID19 patients Remdeisvir saved? Does it has ZERO side-effects?

And again clinical science does not work in this way.
The second question can be answered, in former clinical trials (for EBOLA), Remdeisvir safety profile has been shown as OK, as shown in higher number of clinical trials (all links you can find in wikipedia to Remdesivir, links 2 and 5 to 11). So the safety profile is well established.
I do not have heard/anything read till now of any significant/unexpected side effects, which have occurred during treatment with remdesivir in COVID-19 patients, in difference to the already by me here up provided links/warnings for HCQ an CQ.

The first part of your question:
How many COVID19 patients Remdeisvar saved?

This will be a 100% statistically question. With Remdesivir, the survival rate seems to be much better, hospitalization time lower e.g. than expected or experienced with COVID-19 patients with regular/standard treatment. But of course, no one can say, that a single patient, who has received Remdesivir and survived, will not have survived without, this will be not scientific. It can only be said, that in comparison, something is better.

You do not mean these patents for the treatment scheme in China, so treatment scheme for COVID-19 is now free for use for everyone without any royalties to be paid and no one is any more able to block it?
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:55 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
BTW, care to post a link or two regarding the Wuhan counterfeit Remdesivir?

They sought to secure this patent “out of national interest” and noted they were not interested in enforcement should foreign pharma companies seek to collaborate in China to stop the pandemic. An IP attorney based in Shanghai, China observed that the Wuhan Institute of Virology would be wise to secure approval from the drug’s maker and owner—Gilead.

https://www.trialsitenews.com/wuhan-ins ... emdesivir/

China’s BrightGene has successfully produced remdesivir, an experimental treatment for coronavirus, however, patents for the drug are currently held by the American company Gilead.

http://www.gabionline.net/Generics/News ... remdesivir


For the Wuhan P4 Institute given mainland PRC history on IP and patents, of course they want to steal it just so the money doesn't go to "evil American ".

As for BrightGene...you can pay me a billion and I still won't use that shanzhai version of Remdesivir.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:00 pm

COVID-19 is coming a bit closer to home. A high school class mate of mine has died from COVID-19. Her 30-something son also has died from COVID-19. A nephew had a strong case and is now recovering but his partner may have caught it in the process. Two former co-workers have it. Two friends have it. A few weeks ago (seems like forever now) a friend died.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
T4thH
Posts: 1037
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
COVID-19 is coming a bit closer to home. A high school class mate of mine has died from COVID-19. Her 30-something son also has died from COVID-19. A nephew had a strong case and is now recovering but his partner may have caught it in the process. Two former co-workers have it. Two friends have it. A few weeks ago (seems like forever now) a friend died.

Sorry for you, this sounds devastating. I am working in the "medical" area, I do not want to go in detail. I know 4 hospital staff, who got it early, (in Feb-2020, one of the first identified cases in Europe/Germany) , I was even sent by my company in "self quarantine for 8 days in Feb/Mar, as soon we got aware of it, as I was "too near" to them. Till now all cases I know are asymptotic or light cases, all have now fully recovered.
Last edited by T4thH on Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
art
Posts: 3432
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:22 pm

ltbewr wrote:
To me the closest way to determine the number of those dying of Covid-19 is to compare the number of excess deaths over a norm of the same period a year or an average of the same period over 5 previous years with certain adjustments.


That is precisely what the UK government published a few days ago. Average deaths from all causes week ending 3rd April 2015-2019 was >10,000. Deaths week ending 3rd April in 2020 was >16,000. As mentioned above, some of the increase can be attributed to suffers of other conditions seeking/receiving less treatment.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:55 pm

Michigan still stuck on the plateau. 800-1000 cases a day for almost a month, daily numbers look low giving a false sense of hope, but get restated to same level later.

Michigan's case fatality rate is 7%

Both Caucasian and African American races have 41% death rate. 13% unknown.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11514
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:14 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

To refer to this part only, Trump never called Covid a hoax.
Like him or not this is a fact.

In context, Trump did not say in the passage above that the virus itself was a hoax. He instead said that Democrats’ criticism of his administration’s response to it was a hoax

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump ... ly-remark/


Yet Trump did downplay it , and compared the coronavirus to the flu in the same speech.


https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... oronavirus

This includes several doozies includimg
"3) “It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear”"


So did Democrats. What's your point?


No, it isn't about Republicans and Democrats, it is straight out about Trump's Stupidity.

Trump never called for a closure. The Governors all did as the cases ramped up. Hell, my business stopped travel and began work from home before the governor declared it. So all the people that think Trump declaring the economy open is going to do something are on crack. The Governors are all going to make decisions, and then businesses will make decisions, and then people will have to make their own decisions about this.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:25 pm

Revelation wrote:
COVID-19 is coming a bit closer to home. A high school class mate of mine has died from COVID-19. Her 30-something son also has died from COVID-19. A nephew had a strong case and is now recovering but his partner may have caught it in the process. Two former co-workers have it. Two friends have it. A few weeks ago (seems like forever now) a friend died.


Sorry to hear this, Rev.

Sometimes it's too easy to feel that none of this is directly affecting us. Personally, we've been very lucky with no known cases amongst family or friends, but I do worry about our daughters, both of whom live in London, as well as my elderly father and uncle (both mid-late 80s).

Stay safe everyone.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:34 pm

T4thH wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
T4thH wrote:


All the factors put together makes Remdeisvar success story-line highly suspicious.
Both HCQ and Wuhan copied and patented miracle drug are under clinical trails, but why so much talk down on HCQ and so much praise on Remdeisvar. Shouldn't we wait until there is enough data on both.

Why the rush to patent a copied drug? I still have read why Gilead didn't patent this in the USA.
Why the stock market enthusiasm?
How many COVID19 patients HCQ killed?
How many COVID19 patients Remdeisvar saved? Does it has ZERO side-effects?

There is money to be made at the cost of human suffering, and PRC PR has its fingers in it.

It is easy to arm twist Doctors to ignore or write bad things about cheap drugs and recommend expensive drugs. Happens every normal day.


Are you a fan of conspiracy, just as question? Perhaps you shall not believe all source, or even better, just avoid some of them.

How many COVID19 patients HCQ killed?

It does not work in this way.
Clinical trials and compassionate use of Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine have shown increased problems with the heart in general. These are even so worse, that clinical trials have been even stopped because of the side effects. So the safety for CQ and HCQ is not OK and these results seems to be even statistically "significant".

So even warnings have been announced:
https://newsroom.heart.org/news/caution-recommended-on-covid-19-treatment-with-hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-for-patients-with-cardiovascular-disease-6797342
Stopped use of QC in Sweden regarding side effects:
https://www.newsweek.com/swedish-hospitals-chloroquine-covid-19-side-effects-1496368
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8199477/Swedish-hospitals-stop-prescribing-chloroquine-coronavirus-patients-adverse-effects.html
Stop of high dose trial in Brazil after 11 death.
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/covid-19-brazil-trial-for-drug-chloroquine-touted-by-trump-stopped-after-11-patients-die

Till now no benefit has been shown for CQ or HCQ in clinical trials. Till now all results do not show any benefit, even possibly a light downside, like a prolonged hospitalization or ventilation time, time in ICU e.g. but the downside differences are so small, that they are till now not statistically significant.

How many COVID19 patients Remdeisvir saved? Does it has ZERO side-effects?

And again clinical science does not work in this way.
The second question can be answered, in former clinical trials (for EBOLA), Remdeisvir safety profile has been shown as OK, as shown in higher number of clinical trials (all links you can find in wikipedia to Remdesivir, links 2 and 5 to 11). So the safety profile is well established.
I do not have heard/anything read till now of any significant/unexpected side effects, which have occurred during treatment with remdesivir in COVID-19 patients, in difference to the already by me here up provided links/warnings for HCQ an CQ.

The first part of your question:
How many COVID19 patients Remdeisvar saved?

This will be a 100% statistically question. With Remdesivir, the survival rate seems to be much better, hospitalization time lower e.g. than expected or experienced with COVID-19 patients with regular/standard treatment. But of course, no one can say, that a single patient, who has received Remdesivir and survived, will not have survived without, this will be not scientific. It can only be said, that in comparison, something is better.

You do not mean these patents for the treatment scheme in China, so treatment scheme for COVID-19 is now free for use for everyone without any royalties to be paid and no one is any more able to block it?


Lot of language parsing, not going to respond to that.

That being said, about 25% of patients receiving it have severe side effects, including multiple-organ dysfunction syndrome, septic shock, acute kidney injury and low blood pressure. Another 23% demonstrated evidence of liver damage on lab tests

https://www.biospace.com/article/data-f ... promising/

So if HCQ has been killing people for 80 years, why west hasn't banned it or develop much safer anti-malaria drug.

DDT is not allowed to be used, Mercury is not allowed to be used. Why HCQ?

I can pay Doctors to make them say Orange is bad for their health but a chemical equivent of vitamins are good. They will do happily and distribute free samples to their patients.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Revelation
Posts: 24299
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:59 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Michigan still stuck on the plateau. 800-1000 cases a day for almost a month, daily numbers look low giving a false sense of hope, but get restated to same level later.

Michigan's case fatality rate is 7%

Both Caucasian and African American races have 41% death rate. 13% unknown.

Yep, and people need to understand this plateau means a constant stream of illnesses and fatalities, which is better than an increasing stream of illnesses and fatalities, but is not a reducing stream of illnesses and fatalities.

It's only happening because of social distancing policies, it'd be far worse if everyone were out and about.

The predictions of an eventual reducing stream of illnesses and fatalities presume that social distancing stays in place, typically through all of April and May.

Weeks ago I predicted April and May were total write offs and maybe we'd start recovery by June, and I think that's still about right.

I think, for instance, Boeing restarting production next week is insane. I hope they can deal with all the law suits they will get from infected workers and the families of deceased workers, all this to build airplanes the airlines don't want to take.

T4thH wrote:
Sorry for you, this sounds devastating. I am working in the "medical" area, I do not want to go in detail. I know 4 hospital staff, who got it early, (in Feb-2020, one of the first identified cases in Europe/Germany) , I was even sent by my company in "self quarantine for 8 days in Feb/Mar, as soon we got aware of it, as I was "too near" to them. Till now all cases I know are asymptotic or light cases, all have now fully recovered.

I really feel for medical workers. I was hospitalized a few weeks ago before the peak but could already see the stress in the eyes of many of the medical workers. I'm sure they'd love to have the option to just sit around the house and look at books or videos for a while.

scbriml wrote:
Sorry to hear this, Rev.

Sometimes it's too easy to feel that none of this is directly affecting us. Personally, we've been very lucky with no known cases amongst family or friends, but I do worry about our daughters, both of whom live in London, as well as my elderly father and uncle (both mid-late 80s).

Stay safe everyone.

Thanks, Steve.

My mom is 80 years old and lives in a retirement community in Florida with a wide social circle.

It's been hard to get her to practice good social distancing.

She says when people visit we sit outside and keep 6 feet apart, etc, but IMO it's time to take it further than that.

I have had to coach her up a bit, to train her to tell friends "I love you but please don't come to my house, we'll catch up once this is over".

It wasn't really sinking in.

I hit on something that did sink in after a while. I said "what if you end up in a hospital? none of us will be able to travel to see you, and none of us will be let in to visit anyway, so all we can do is worry about you, do you want that?". So it was kind of heavy, but since she always cares for others rather than herself, it did seem to sink in.

Hopefully others will find a way to get their stubbornly social relatives to take social distancing to the next level.

As above we in the US are at best holding our own at this point in time, not gaining and not losing, even with base level social distancing in place.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:36 pm

art wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
To me the closest way to determine the number of those dying of Covid-19 is to compare the number of excess deaths over a norm of the same period a year or an average of the same period over 5 previous years with certain adjustments.


That is precisely what the UK government published a few days ago. Average deaths from all causes week ending 3rd April 2015-2019 was >10,000. Deaths week ending 3rd April in 2020 was >16,000. As mentioned above, some of the increase can be attributed to suffers of other conditions seeking/receiving less treatment.


In France other causes are way down in death, accidents of course, but even heart attacks and strokes, probably helped by less stress, less pollution...
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
N212R
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:12 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Michigan still stuck on the plateau. 800-1000 cases a day for almost a month, daily numbers look low giving a false sense of hope, but get restated to same level later.

Michigan's case fatality rate is 7%

Both Caucasian and African American races have 41% death rate. 13% unknown.


This pandemic is putting many a statistician to overtime work. Are individual states noting obesity percentages among their Covid victims? Have other countries released any data referencing obesity & Covid mortality?
 
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ER757
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:24 pm

Revelation wrote:
COVID-19 is coming a bit closer to home. A high school class mate of mine has died from COVID-19. Her 30-something son also has died from COVID-19. A nephew had a strong case and is now recovering but his partner may have caught it in the process. Two former co-workers have it. Two friends have it. A few weeks ago (seems like forever now) a friend died.

Sorry to hear this, my sympathies to you - while I've not experienced having anyone I know succumb so far, I am concerned about several family members who are older (over 70) and have underlying health issues. I, myself am in a higher risk age group but am considered to be in good health with no additional risk factors than age. I am probably being overly-cautious in the precautions I am taking, but better safe than sorry.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:32 pm

China has revised their deathtoll numbers higher for today. Not sure the numbers all add up, but interesting to see a 50% surge in Wuhan

"alert China: Hubei Province issued today a "Notice on the Correction of the Number of New Coronary Pneumonia Cases Diagnosed and the Number of Diagnosed Deaths in Wuhan" in which it reported 1,290 additional deaths that had not been previously counted and reported, bringing the total number of deaths in Wuhan from 2,579 to 3,869, an increase of 50%, as the result of a revision by the Wuhan New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control. As part of this revision, 325 additional cases in Wuhan were also added. Separately, China's National Health Commission (NHC) reported 26 new cases (and no deaths) in its daily report [source] [source] [source]
"
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/china/
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:46 pm

While some here have done nothing but moan and bitch about the situation, in Britain a 99 year old WWII veteran has lifted the spirits of an entire nation and raised an eye-watering £17 million for the NHS. Captain Tom Moore has become an overnight hero and an absolute legend. His efforts and attitude put the moaners to shame.

I hope this link is open to those outside the UK, but otherwise just Google "Captain Tom Moore".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52316856
There was an unmistakable sense of conviction in Tom Moore's voice as he addressed the camera after completing his walk.

"To all those people who are finding it difficult at the moment," he said, addressing a British public who have seen life turned upside down by coronavirus. "The sun will shine on you again, and the clouds will go away."

Moments before, the 99-year-old war veteran had completed the 100th lap of a sponsored walk around his Bedfordshire garden. With service medals pinned to his breast pocket, and clutching his walking frame, he crossed the finish line at a slow but determined pace.

In just a few days, Mr Moore, nicknamed Captain Tom by his growing legion of fans, had risen from nowhere to the status of near national treasure.

When he had started fundraising for the walk, it had been with the modest aim of raising £1,000. Inspired by the dedicated work of medics, Captain Tom had wanted to thank the "magnificent" NHS staff who had helped him with cancer treatment and a broken hip. By the time he had reached the finish line, he had become a social media phenomenon and raised an astonishing £12m. By the teatime the same day, donations had risen to £15m. And the total keeps growing and growing and has now passed £17m.


If anyone feels like making a small donation:
https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/ ... kforthenhs

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Revelation
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:28 pm

ER757 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
COVID-19 is coming a bit closer to home. A high school class mate of mine has died from COVID-19. Her 30-something son also has died from COVID-19. A nephew had a strong case and is now recovering but his partner may have caught it in the process. Two former co-workers have it. Two friends have it. A few weeks ago (seems like forever now) a friend died.

Sorry to hear this, my sympathies to you - while I've not experienced having anyone I know succumb so far, I am concerned about several family members who are older (over 70) and have underlying health issues. I, myself am in a higher risk age group but am considered to be in good health with no additional risk factors than age. I am probably being overly-cautious in the precautions I am taking, but better safe than sorry.

Thanks for the kind words. I agree with everything you wrote, especially the "better safe than sorry" part. I'm trying to get my mother to think that way. Hopefully she'll realize a few visits with her friends aren't worth the potential risks she's taking to do so.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
COVID-19 is coming a bit closer to home. A high school class mate of mine has died from COVID-19. Her 30-something son also has died from COVID-19. A nephew had a strong case and is now recovering but his partner may have caught it in the process. Two former co-workers have it. Two friends have it. A few weeks ago (seems like forever now) a friend died.

Sorry to hear that. It appears healthcare professionals are one of the groups hit hard, Not knowingly many came in contact with COVID patients for other ailments.

casinterest wrote:
China has revised their deathtoll numbers higher for today.

As one of my Chinese friend put it, their numbers are correct, only trailing zeros are missing.
All posts are just opinions.
 
art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:41 pm

I think that Captain Tom will reach the age of 100 soon. I would hate to be the postman delivering his mail on his birthday.

Aimed to raise £1,000 but raised £17,000,000 and more. What a phenomenal result. Through his enterprise and efforts he has become recognised as a national hero, held in affection by millions..
 
flyguy89
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:42 pm

Aesma wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
I am more than sure that Trump is simply using this as a vehicle to deflect some blame, but in this case I don't care. The WHO have proved themselves, from the most charitable perspective, useless (they couldn't do their job blunting future pandemics, but thank God we have them to put out utterly tone deaf recommendations for the world not to drink while they're locked down :roll: ). Not just the US, but all member nations should be reevaluating their WHO funding.


At the same time the WHO was praising China, Trump was...praising China. Calling Xi his friend etc., which noone else does. And it seems Trump had tons of info available on what was happening on the ground (was he listening ?).

Frankly, I don't care. Are you seriously intimating that after years of being decried and criticized as racist towards Chinese and being overly belligerent and aggressive to China, that he's in fact now too cozy and friendly to the Chinese? That kind of whataboutism doesn't even pass the smell test.

Was he dismissive of the virus and ill-prepared? Absolutely. So was just about every Western leader until Italy happened, but Trump will have to answer and own up to his response to voters in November. The fact remains however that the international organization dedicated to advancing global health and pandemic prevention parroted deliberately misleading facts and information from China, and actively suppressed inquiry and questioning of the disease's spread...in so doing, almost certainly contributing to the spread becoming a pandemic. As I said before, not just the US, but ALL countries should now be reviewing their WHO funding.

Newark727 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
The bottom line is that Trump response is not perfect, but so of his highly "criticized" (at least by the media...) call did turn out to be the correct thing to do. Travel ban of China then Europe especially was the right call to make, albeit in the latter case, a little bit too late.


People keep saying this, but the devil is in the details. Since they only tested for what country's passport you were holding, the first travel bans were never complete enough to stop the infection arriving, and they couldn't have been, given that there were Americans who couldn't stay abroad indefinitely, so the real crux of the matter was testing the ones who did arrive and being ready for the location and magnitude of the virus' spread.

Wholly agree with you, but you're conflating two separate questions:
Could the travel ban have been executed more effectively? (as you point out, absolutely)
vs.
Was Trump wrong to implement travel bans? (Despite the media uproar and despite the WHO saying they weren't even neccessary)

As you say, the devil is certainly in the details, but among the many things he should be criticized for with regard to his response, this is not one of them...particularly when the American and international intelligentsia were dismissive of any types of travel restrictions at that time.
 
astuteman
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:10 pm

Revelation wrote:
COVID-19 is coming a bit closer to home. A high school class mate of mine has died from COVID-19. Her 30-something son also has died from COVID-19. A nephew had a strong case and is now recovering but his partner may have caught it in the process. Two former co-workers have it. Two friends have it. A few weeks ago (seems like forever now) a friend died.


Sorry to hear this story, my friend.
My thoughts are with you.
It gives a different perspective when its closer to home.

We have been fortunate so far (and this makes me feel so much for those less fortunate)
We live in a stunning part of the UK (Lake District)
I am able to work from home effectively and still earn.
My daughter has managed to secure A's and A*'s in her GCSE's without even sitting them, and is at home with me.

My wife, on the other hand, runs a small care home within walking distance of where we live.
And am I glad I have my job, not hers......
Being very astute, she locked everything down at least 2 weeks before the UK government declared it, and, cross-fingers, all is well so far.
But we live and walk on eggshells.
It matters not that we would all be considered low risk.
All it needs is for one penetration of the lockdown in that home, and its game over.

She subscribes to a care home owners messaging site on facebook, and it is SO harrowing watching what is happening in UK care homes (and elsewhere in the world, I'm sure).
Breaks your heart, watching the conversations.
Once this thing gets into a care home, it is grim, to say the least.

I want to give a big shout out to all those who are caring for people that can't care for themselves.
They have been a forgotten story for a long time, although it seems to be coming out in the media now.

Rgds
 
astuteman
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:12 pm

art wrote:
I think that Captain Tom will reach the age of 100 soon. I would hate to be the postman delivering his mail on his birthday.

Aimed to raise £1,000 but raised £17,000,000 and more. What a phenomenal result. Through his enterprise and efforts he has become recognised as a national hero, held in affection by millions..


What with Captain Tom AND Owain and his drumming :)

So heart-warming to see our society at its very best..

Rgds
 
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ER757
Posts: 3809
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:44 pm

Revelation wrote:
ER757 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
COVID-19 is coming a bit closer to home. A high school class mate of mine has died from COVID-19. Her 30-something son also has died from COVID-19. A nephew had a strong case and is now recovering but his partner may have caught it in the process. Two former co-workers have it. Two friends have it. A few weeks ago (seems like forever now) a friend died.

Sorry to hear this, my sympathies to you - while I've not experienced having anyone I know succumb so far, I am concerned about several family members who are older (over 70) and have underlying health issues. I, myself am in a higher risk age group but am considered to be in good health with no additional risk factors than age. I am probably being overly-cautious in the precautions I am taking, but better safe than sorry.

Thanks for the kind words. I agree with everything you wrote, especially the "better safe than sorry" part. I'm trying to get my mother to think that way. Hopefully she'll realize a few visits with her friends aren't worth the potential risks she's taking to do so.

Good luck with that - I am struggling with my lady friend - she isn't visiting friends, but she isn't as vigilant in hand washing, avoiding and/or cleaning high-touch surfaces etc as her son and I would like her to be. She's also out to various stores a whole lot more than I wish - pet store, gardening shop, two grocery stores - and that was just yesterday :(

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