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RJMAZ
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:42 am

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04- ... y/12173702

Australia has done such an excellent job. About 80% of businesses remained open during the lockdown. Living in Melbourne everything feels so normal as everywhere I normally go has remained open. Went to my local hardware store today, then went for a surf and just had dinner at my local kebab shop.

I think once a country reaches a certain percentage of infections the lockdown has to be too severe and long for the population to be OK with it. Singapore has spiked the last couple days because their lockdown has been going for 8 weeks. People only have so much patience.

I hope Australia keeps this "stage 3" lockdown for a couple more months. People are starting to get more confident and going out more so easing restrictions could see a flood of parties and potential virus spread.

Australia might be able to eliminate this entirely. Experts are saying that we have done well better than expected in our supression mode. We have matched New Zealand which was in a more extreme level 4 elimination.mode.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:10 am

I'm interested to know what proponents of strict lockdowns propose as far as exit strategy.

We keep hearing about stopping everybody's lives for an indeterminate amount of time, seemingly regardless of any unintended consequences or the possibility of less extreme measures to contain spreading, yet I tend to fail hearing about when and how we get to finally get out of our caves?

Waiting until there are 0 cases might be feasible for smaller countries which never really got badly infected, but waiting for such in Europe or the US is not a viable proposition as it may take months or years.
So where do we go from there? How much do we destroy because we refuse to acknowledge that there are inherent risks to living?

This is the reason I understand the Swedish approach. The number of daily transmission has stabilized. The number of critical cases is no higher than anywhere else. In this state, the number of active cases would eventually stabilize at around the number of daily new cases (roughly 600).

While some places might have the luxury of eliminating the disease (at the cost of isolating themselves from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future), many others will not, and will have to live with the disease. The goal then becomes trying to protect the more vulnerable people and keeping the infection rate manageable for the healthcare system.
So how do we do that?
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:27 am

Francoflier wrote:
I'm interested to know what proponents of strict lockdowns propose as far as exit strategy.


Lockdown in the UK is not all positive in terms of communal health. For example, 'body repair' surgery (eg replacement hip, knee, cataract etc procedures) has been halted. More seriously, people with possibly fatal problems (eg cancer) have seen treatment suspended.

Lockdown is not simply economically damaging. My view is that risks should be taken with the level of infection by restarting the most important sectors of the economy with low risk employees (in terms of likely outcome from becoming infected). At worst an increase in disease will result, for which the UK is now adequately prepared, although the administration has been ineffective at exploiting domestic resources to boost personal protection equipment or to act quickly to accept supplies from new suppliers.

So I think a phased return in the direction of normal economic activity should be implemented and the results monitored. Our health system has the capacity to treat far more COVID-19 sufferers than it could a month ago.

By the way, a vaccine developed at Oxford begins human trials Thursday.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:41 am

Francoflier wrote:
I'm interested to know what proponents of strict lockdowns propose as far as exit strategy.


We can return to new normal with few changes.

Invoke DPA to supply 3-4 Billion surgical masks and gloves. There shouldn't be a shortage of masks and gloves for entire country.

Public outside their home and car should wear mask and gloves. Front line workers should wear PPEs.

Yes I know what CDC, IATA, Sanjay [email protected], and every expert Doctor/Nurse on TV/Internet told us about masks, just ignore them, they are lying.

Stop wrapping produce in plastic, I think our obsession with plastic wrap and bags increasing the survivability of virus. There need to be some out of box thinking.

I hate to admit but UAE and Emirates are way ahead. Have you seen Emirates crew new look.

It is impossible and useless to test 350 Million if tests are not reliable and there is no remedy.
All posts are just opinions.
 
PPVRA
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:16 pm

Francoflier wrote:
I'm interested to know what proponents of strict lockdowns propose as far as exit strategy.

We keep hearing about stopping everybody's lives for an indeterminate amount of time, seemingly regardless of any unintended consequences or the possibility of less extreme measures to contain spreading, yet I tend to fail hearing about when and how we get to finally get out of our caves?

Waiting until there are 0 cases might be feasible for smaller countries which never really got badly infected, but waiting for such in Europe or the US is not a viable proposition as it may take months or years.
So where do we go from there? How much do we destroy because we refuse to acknowledge that there are inherent risks to living?

This is the reason I understand the Swedish approach. The number of daily transmission has stabilized. The number of critical cases is no higher than anywhere else. In this state, the number of active cases would eventually stabilize at around the number of daily new cases (roughly 600).

While some places might have the luxury of eliminating the disease (at the cost of isolating themselves from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future), many others will not, and will have to live with the disease. The goal then becomes trying to protect the more vulnerable people and keeping the infection rate manageable for the healthcare system.
So how do we do that?


And we have to remember that a drug or a vaccine is still an IF, not just a when. I’m hopeful but we cannot put all of our eggs in one strategy/basket. As has been said before too, hope is not a plan.

I also don’t think a heard immunity strategy has to be exclusive to quarantining and flattening the curve. Flatten the curve/stop the spike, but then have a strategy to build immunity among the low risk group precisely to protect the high risk group, while also reducing a likely spike in the fall.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:37 pm

Francoflier wrote:
I'm interested to know what proponents of strict lockdowns propose as far as exit strategy.

We keep hearing about stopping everybody's lives for an indeterminate amount of time, seemingly regardless of any unintended consequences or the possibility of less extreme measures to contain spreading, yet I tend to fail hearing about when and how we get to finally get out of our caves?

Waiting until there are 0 cases might be feasible for smaller countries which never really got badly infected, but waiting for such in Europe or the US is not a viable proposition as it may take months or years.
So where do we go from there? How much do we destroy because we refuse to acknowledge that there are inherent risks to living?

This is the reason I understand the Swedish approach. The number of daily transmission has stabilized. The number of critical cases is no higher than anywhere else. In this state, the number of active cases would eventually stabilize at around the number of daily new cases (roughly 600).

While some places might have the luxury of eliminating the disease (at the cost of isolating themselves from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future), many others will not, and will have to live with the disease. The goal then becomes trying to protect the more vulnerable people and keeping the infection rate manageable for the healthcare system.
So how do we do that?


Here is what has not happened. People are not being trained to handle the massive influx of cases. Hospitals have furloughed staff for elective surgeries and have not bothered to prepare them for the influx of sick cases. If we are going to lift the restrictions, we need some real world readiness for the issues. People that have died in NY, are having to wait 2-3 months for funeral services as the morgues are all filling up, and they have containers outside hospitals. This is where we are headed.

Most of the world did a good job of social distancing, but now it is beginning to fracture, and this disease is particularly insidious as it can wait 5-14 days before symptoms show. So once each state of normalization occurs, it will take 2-3 weeks to see the full damage..

The real damage will occur going forward as people will not be going to many locations as they do not wish to spread the disease, so many businesses will still suffer. Planes, trains and offices will remain empty. The economy is beyond wrecked, and their needs to be a plan to handle all these bankruptices and layoffs that will occur in the coming months as the pandemic increases in severity.


Sweden has not done as well as everyone thinks when compared to their neighbors. It is also not flattening the curve. their cases are continuing to increase with little sign of flattening.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:48 pm

Here is another example of some people bring their abilities and desire in dealing with this crises. A professor of mortuary science who teaches at an upstate NY state college with the assistance of some of his students is helping overwhelmed funeral homes in NYC by transporting victims remains to other states, as far as Pennsylvania and Vermont to crematories that have the capacity to do it. This professor was also involved working as a licensed funeral mortician helping with the processing of bodies from the crash of AA 4184 near Roselawn, IL in October 1994 where he learned how to id and process with dignity large amounts of deceased victims.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/nyre ... ician.html
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:14 pm

art wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
I'm interested to know what proponents of strict lockdowns propose as far as exit strategy.


Lockdown in the UK is not all positive in terms of communal health. For example, 'body repair' surgery (eg replacement hip, knee, cataract etc procedures) has been halted. More seriously, people with possibly fatal problems (eg cancer) have seen treatment suspended.

Lockdown is not simply economically damaging. My view is that risks should be taken with the level of infection by restarting the most important sectors of the economy with low risk employees (in terms of likely outcome from becoming infected). At worst an increase in disease will result, for which the UK is now adequately prepared, although the administration has been ineffective at exploiting domestic resources to boost personal protection equipment or to act quickly to accept supplies from new suppliers.

So I think a phased return in the direction of normal economic activity should be implemented and the results monitored. Our health system has the capacity to treat far more COVID-19 sufferers than it could a month ago.

By the way, a vaccine developed at Oxford begins human trials Thursday.


Indeed. I'll try to look for the articles, but the BBC did mention that among the COVID mortality spike in the UK, up to something like 30% could not be attributed to the virus itself.as people in need of other types healthcare avoid hospitals.

Some Asians nations have showed us that it is possible to effectively reduce community transmission (even in very crowded cities) by mass adoption of light-duty PPEs and adequate hygiene with much less restrictions than Western nations have imposed. As you said, the healthcare system was caught off guard, but can adapt and grow to more effectively deal with the outbreak. In any case, in light of the catastrophic economic consequences, no effort should be spared there.

dtw2hyd wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
I'm interested to know what proponents of strict lockdowns propose as far as exit strategy.


We can return to new normal with few changes.

Invoke DPA to supply 3-4 Billion surgical masks and gloves. There shouldn't be a shortage of masks and gloves for entire country.

Public outside their home and car should wear mask and gloves. Front line workers should wear PPEs.

Yes I know what CDC, IATA, Sanjay [email protected], and every expert Doctor/Nurse on TV/Internet told us about masks, just ignore them, they are lying.

Stop wrapping produce in plastic, I think our obsession with plastic wrap and bags increasing the survivability of virus. There need to be some out of box thinking.

I hate to admit but UAE and Emirates are way ahead. Have you seen Emirates crew new look.

It is impossible and useless to test 350 Million if tests are not reliable and there is no remedy.


I have admittedly made a 180 when it comes to masks. The current recommendation is in place as no science has been able to show a benefit during a large scale outbreak, but that has a lot to do with the fact that it is almost impossible to adequately test and that every contagious disease is different. The few studies out there are centered on their use in a medical environment.
However, in the case of the current bug, it would stand to reason that - given its apparent tendency to spread asymptomatically and that most of what is spread comes from tiny droplets from the nose and mouth - large-scale mask usage would have a positive effect in decreasing the contamination an unknowing carrier would have.
I'm not sure about gloves however. The virus doesn't enter through the skin, so not touching your face with your hand is enough to avoid transmission from whatever has been touched before hand washing. If wearing gloves prevents people from instinctively touching their face, then it might help them. Otherwise, I think it would make no difference.

Whereas figures from China can't be trusted, the ones from places such as Hong Kong, Macau or South Korea, where large scale mask-wearing is culturally engrained in times of epidemics, can. And they show that they have effectively brought their outbreaks under control. Of course, it may not just be the masks. They were pretty aggressive with contact-tracing and quarantining, which are measures that should also be emulated elsewhere.

Germany seems to agree: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52382196

casinterest wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
I'm interested to know what proponents of strict lockdowns propose as far as exit strategy.

We keep hearing about stopping everybody's lives for an indeterminate amount of time, seemingly regardless of any unintended consequences or the possibility of less extreme measures to contain spreading, yet I tend to fail hearing about when and how we get to finally get out of our caves?

Waiting until there are 0 cases might be feasible for smaller countries which never really got badly infected, but waiting for such in Europe or the US is not a viable proposition as it may take months or years.
So where do we go from there? How much do we destroy because we refuse to acknowledge that there are inherent risks to living?

This is the reason I understand the Swedish approach. The number of daily transmission has stabilized. The number of critical cases is no higher than anywhere else. In this state, the number of active cases would eventually stabilize at around the number of daily new cases (roughly 600).

While some places might have the luxury of eliminating the disease (at the cost of isolating themselves from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future), many others will not, and will have to live with the disease. The goal then becomes trying to protect the more vulnerable people and keeping the infection rate manageable for the healthcare system.
So how do we do that?


Here is what has not happened. People are not being trained to handle the massive influx of cases. Hospitals have furloughed staff for elective surgeries and have not bothered to prepare them for the influx of sick cases. If we are going to lift the restrictions, we need some real world readiness for the issues. People that have died in NY, are having to wait 2-3 months for funeral services as the morgues are all filling up, and they have containers outside hospitals. This is where we are headed.

Most of the world did a good job of social distancing, but now it is beginning to fracture, and this disease is particularly insidious as it can wait 5-14 days before symptoms show. So once each state of normalization occurs, it will take 2-3 weeks to see the full damage..

The real damage will occur going forward as people will not be going to many locations as they do not wish to spread the disease, so many businesses will still suffer. Planes, trains and offices will remain empty. The economy is beyond wrecked, and their needs to be a plan to handle all these bankruptices and layoffs that will occur in the coming months as the pandemic increases in severity.


Sweden has not done as well as everyone thinks when compared to their neighbors. It is also not flattening the curve. their cases are continuing to increase with little sign of flattening.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/


There will be little to be gained from jailing people in their own homes in the long term. They're only going to get more pissed off as they watch everything they've worked for in their lives go down the drain for a disease which probably wouldn't be worse than a bad flu for most.
Instead of turning people against the system, it should encourage them to work together in being more responsible in their day to day life, i.e.: Keep your distances when you can. Wear a mask and avoid talking to people face to face. Don't unnecessarily touch stuff and wash/sanitize your hands frequently, especially when outside. Stay at home when sick. Demand that shops and businesses institute mandatory temperature checks. Force vulnerable people (elderly / debilitating medical conditions) to stay home and facilitate their life while confined.
This is not a disease we need to cower at home for. It is a virus the transmission of which can be greatly reduced to manageable levels with a little bit of effort and proper behavior from the population, which needs to be embolden to do so and cheered for doing so rather than being restricted and threatened.

By the way, it is estimated that millions around the World will die from the economic effects of the lockdowns, Maybe tens of millions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52373888
Masses of people in poorer nations rely on a day to day paycheck to merely survive. Unllke in the West where the economic effects will mostly result in job losses and economic distress, in some parts of the World, it will mean death... Not that we seem to care about them much it seems... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:42 pm

Sweden givernment now considers that 1/3 of population in stocjholm regions has been infected.
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:44 pm

Uk now consider that around half of dead not accounted fpr and the real number of dead is more then 40000.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 77761.html
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:43 pm

Francoflier wrote:

There will be little to be gained from jailing people in their own homes in the long term.


Where are people jailed? Right here you lost any semblance of rationality.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:03 pm

Francoflier wrote:
I'm interested to know what proponents of strict lockdowns propose as far as exit strategy.

We keep hearing about stopping everybody's lives for an indeterminate amount of time, seemingly regardless of any unintended consequences or the possibility of less extreme measures to contain spreading, yet I tend to fail hearing about when and how we get to finally get out of our caves?

Waiting until there are 0 cases might be feasible for smaller countries which never really got badly infected, but waiting for such in Europe or the US is not a viable proposition as it may take months or years.
So where do we go from there? How much do we destroy because we refuse to acknowledge that there are inherent risks to living?

This is the reason I understand the Swedish approach. The number of daily transmission has stabilized. The number of critical cases is no higher than anywhere else. In this state, the number of active cases would eventually stabilize at around the number of daily new cases (roughly 600).

While some places might have the luxury of eliminating the disease (at the cost of isolating themselves from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future), many others will not, and will have to live with the disease. The goal then becomes trying to protect the more vulnerable people and keeping the infection rate manageable for the healthcare system.
So how do we do that?

Good question, we all are going to get COVID19 some time. The virus won't vanish from earth all of the sudden. We are far from a vaccine and even if the vaccine is effective, to get to 100% of the population will take at the very least a decade.

The vaccine, when it comes, there will already be different mutations of the virus, so lets see what happens.

In the meantime, I hope things open up gradually and try not to create outbreaks that would overwhelm our hospital facilities, we should by now have built sufficient infrastructure for this. COVID19 is going to stick around for a long time and we can't keep hiding under a cave for years. If any of you want to keep hiding, be my guest, but don't force me to do that under the penalty of jail or fines.

All of the governments of the world will do measures like Sweden in the near future, but won't ever admit that they did. Herd immunity, its what will bring the world to normalcy again.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Etika
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:16 pm

olle wrote:
Sweden givernment now considers that 1/3 of population in stocjholm regions has been infected.


That was based on a report by Swedish Health Agency that was quickly withdrawn: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel ... us-report/

The numbers in the withdrawn report would have meant that there would have been about 1000 times more cases than than positive tests. Which was so glaringly impossible that it boggles the mind how no-one did a recheck on numbers before publication.

The interesting question is whether the problem is was just in that report or whether it is a problem in the model that the Health Agency has been using for their decision making so far. If the latter, the whole basis of the Swedish strategy for at least few previous weeks might have just gone out the window...
 
flyguy89
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:43 pm

Francoflier wrote:
I'm interested to know what proponents of strict lockdowns propose as far as exit strategy.

We keep hearing about stopping everybody's lives for an indeterminate amount of time, seemingly regardless of any unintended consequences or the possibility of less extreme measures to contain spreading, yet I tend to fail hearing about when and how we get to finally get out of our caves?

Waiting until there are 0 cases might be feasible for smaller countries which never really got badly infected, but waiting for such in Europe or the US is not a viable proposition as it may take months or years.
So where do we go from there? How much do we destroy because we refuse to acknowledge that there are inherent risks to living?

This is the reason I understand the Swedish approach. The number of daily transmission has stabilized. The number of critical cases is no higher than anywhere else. In this state, the number of active cases would eventually stabilize at around the number of daily new cases (roughly 600).

While some places might have the luxury of eliminating the disease (at the cost of isolating themselves from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future), many others will not, and will have to live with the disease. The goal then becomes trying to protect the more vulnerable people and keeping the infection rate manageable for the healthcare system.
So how do we do that?

Agreed. I'm not for easing restrictions unintelligently, but indefinite lockdowns are not tenable or sustainable long-term strategies. Many will die from economic deprivation and supply chains and logistics propping up the healthcare system of the world will also begin to falter, further worsening the costs from indefinite lockdown. I think we're approaching, more quickly than many are willing to admit, the cure being worse than the disease. Yes, we need to ramp up testing, surveillance, and tracing protocols massively...but some of this will have to be made up as we go along.
 
winginit
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:36 pm

Francoflier wrote:
There will be little to be gained from jailing people in their own homes in the long term.


Again this 'jailing' and 'house arrest' language is so puzzling to me.

Regardless of where you live in the United States, you are very much able to do the following:

- Go shopping for necessities
- Go for a walk or run
- Converse with friends in a public space or on your street or whatever

Sounds very much not like being jailed or under house arrest
 
PPVRA
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:54 am

Momentum is building to speed the development of coronavirus vaccines by intentionally infecting healthy, young volunteers with the virus. A grass-roots effort has attracted nearly 1,500 potential volunteers for the controversial approach, known as a human-challenge trial.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01179-x


(Link within the article above takes you directly to the organization advocating for this and seeking support, not just volunteers)
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:07 am

PPVRA wrote:
Momentum is building to speed the development of coronavirus vaccines by intentionally infecting healthy, young volunteers with the virus. A grass-roots effort has attracted nearly 1,500 potential volunteers for the controversial approach, known as a human-challenge trial.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01179-x


(Link within the article above takes you directly to the organization advocating for this and seeking support, not just volunteers)



I think a lot of people will sign up to be volunteers. I would do it if needed.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:38 am

Austria sees a 90% drop in infections since April 6,2020 mandatory mask rule.
Czech Republic and Slovakia have very low infection rates with their DIY mask campaigns.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/2 ... -masks.htm

I hope rest of the developed world gets the point rather than searching for a silver bullet.

An excellent video on the topic of masks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P27HRClMf2U
Last edited by dtw2hyd on Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
All posts are just opinions.
 
PPVRA
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:41 am

casinterest wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Momentum is building to speed the development of coronavirus vaccines by intentionally infecting healthy, young volunteers with the virus. A grass-roots effort has attracted nearly 1,500 potential volunteers for the controversial approach, known as a human-challenge trial.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01179-x


(Link within the article above takes you directly to the organization advocating for this and seeking support, not just volunteers)



I think a lot of people will sign up to be volunteers. I would do it if needed.


I’d consider, too. But I’d have to get the green light from family and my job, neither of which would be easy...
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:55 am

PPVRA wrote:
casinterest wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Momentum is building to speed the development of coronavirus vaccines by intentionally infecting healthy, young volunteers with the virus. A grass-roots effort has attracted nearly 1,500 potential volunteers for the controversial approach, known as a human-challenge trial.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01179-x


(Link within the article above takes you directly to the organization advocating for this and seeking support, not just volunteers)



I think a lot of people will sign up to be volunteers. I would do it if needed.


I’d consider, too. But I’d have to get the green light from family and my job, neither of which would be easy...


Well , yes, green lights to be considered.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:56 am

How dumb can people be? A doctor consulting the city of Memphis said that everyone may be wearing masks in restaurants. No, people will not do that. A mask kind of gets in the way of eating and drinking. Memphis is all Democrats and has been for decades. This is the kind of stuff they're coming up with. :banghead:
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:12 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
How dumb can people be? A doctor consulting the city of Memphis said that everyone may be wearing masks in restaurants. No, people will not do that. A mask kind of gets in the way of eating and drinking. Memphis is all Democrats and has been for decades. This is the kind of stuff they're coming up with. :banghead:


How limited can imagination be, seems like the real question here. Obviously people are not going to continue covering their mouth with mask when eating and drinking - that’s not even the point. :boggled:
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:14 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
How dumb can people be? A doctor consulting the city of Memphis said that everyone may be wearing masks in restaurants. No, people will not do that. A mask kind of gets in the way of eating and drinking. Memphis is all Democrats and has been for decades. This is the kind of stuff they're coming up with. :banghead:


You missed the point. The issue being that being in close proximity within a restaurant exposes you automatically.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:55 am

casinterest wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
How dumb can people be? A doctor consulting the city of Memphis said that everyone may be wearing masks in restaurants. No, people will not do that. A mask kind of gets in the way of eating and drinking. Memphis is all Democrats and has been for decades. This is the kind of stuff they're coming up with. :banghead:


You missed the point. The issue being that being in close proximity within a restaurant exposes you automatically.


I take it you won't be dining in restaurants anymore then?
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:00 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
Austria sees a 90% drop in infections since April 6,2020 mandatory mask rule.
Czech Republic and Slovakia have very low infection rates with their DIY mask campaigns.

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/2 ... -masks.htm

I hope rest of the developed world gets the point rather than searching for a silver bullet.

An excellent video on the topic of masks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P27HRClMf2U


This reality is getting harder and harder to ignore.
The definite science on this may not come for years, but the anecdotal evidence is mounting up.

I used to side with the WHO and most of the science when it came to masks, but have since very much changed my mind from having witnessed first hand the effects of their large-scale usage among the general population during this pandemic.

Then I covered my face... now I'm a believer.
:duck:

It will be interesting to see what the studies will show once the dust settles. This would be a fascinating subject for an epidemiology major, with a perfect set of data for large scale analysis.
I'd also like to know why the WHO and different national health entities did not react sooner on the mask issue when the first hint that the previously established beliefs might not be correct appeared, if only by principle of precaution. Is it because of the global shortage of masks? Is it to avoid causing panic/panic buying?

Either way, that might very well be the silver bullet.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:11 am

Do you think professors and teachers are going to teach with masks on? How can they interact and have a discussion with students? It is not a solution at all and just one more way that the government wants to control you.
 
flyguy89
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:35 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Do you think professors and teachers are going to teach with masks on? How can they interact and have a discussion with students? It is not a solution at all and just one more way that the government wants to control you.

What is so hard to understand? You're not wearing a mask literally every moment you're in public...and you don't see that in Asia either. Rather just common sense places and times, such as a public transit, grocery stores and large very crowded enclosed places during flu season and large epidemics.
 
yonahleung
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:09 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Do you think professors and teachers are going to teach with masks on? How can they interact and have a discussion with students? It is not a solution at all and just one more way that the government wants to control you.

Yes. And it is common sight here in Hong Kong. You just react and have a discussion with students like normal. Just put one on and see how it goes. Though with the level of speaking necessary, it will probably require a fresh mask after every lecture. But those of us in Hong Kong are already expecting to use 3 masks each day in summer anyway.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:11 am

yonahleung wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Do you think professors and teachers are going to teach with masks on? How can they interact and have a discussion with students? It is not a solution at all and just one more way that the government wants to control you.

Yes. And it is common sight here in Hong Kong. You just react and have a discussion with students like normal. Just put one on and see how it goes. Though with the level of speaking necessary, it will probably require a fresh mask after every lecture. But those of us in Hong Kong are already expecting to use 3 masks each day in summer anyway.


Y'all have fun with that.
 
yonahleung
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:14 am

flyguy89 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Do you think professors and teachers are going to teach with masks on? How can they interact and have a discussion with students? It is not a solution at all and just one more way that the government wants to control you.

What is so hard to understand? You're not wearing a mask literally every moment you're in public...and you don't see that in Asia either. Rather just common sense places and times, such as a public transit, grocery stores and large very crowded enclosed places during flu season and large epidemics.

Indeed in Hong Kong we are wearing a mask once we are out of our residential flat, the only exception is probably when I am going out to dump garbage in the middle of the night, which was a 10 metre walk from my door. We are getting used to this lifestyle if this is what keeps our society running.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:53 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
yonahleung wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Do you think professors and teachers are going to teach with masks on? How can they interact and have a discussion with students? It is not a solution at all and just one more way that the government wants to control you.

Yes. And it is common sight here in Hong Kong. You just react and have a discussion with students like normal. Just put one on and see how it goes. Though with the level of speaking necessary, it will probably require a fresh mask after every lecture. But those of us in Hong Kong are already expecting to use 3 masks each day in summer anyway.


Y'all have fun with that.


The major Asian economies are doing far better than we are with containment and spread. Ya'll have fun with *THAT*.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:56 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
yonahleung wrote:
Yes. And it is common sight here in Hong Kong. You just react and have a discussion with students like normal. Just put one on and see how it goes. Though with the level of speaking necessary, it will probably require a fresh mask after every lecture. But those of us in Hong Kong are already expecting to use 3 masks each day in summer anyway.


Y'all have fun with that.


The major Asian economies are doing far better than we are with containment and spread. Ya'll have fun with *THAT*.


I'm not wearing a mask the rest of my life. And do you really think most Americans are smart enough to properly use a mask? They either can only be worn once or mist be sanitized. Many people still aren't washing their hands and plenty don't even wash their clothes after wearing them.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:41 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Y'all have fun with that.


The major Asian economies are doing far better than we are with containment and spread. Ya'll have fun with *THAT*.


I'm not wearing a mask the rest of my life. And do you really think most Americans are smart enough to properly use a mask? They either can only be worn once or mist be sanitized. Many people still aren't washing their hands and plenty don't even wash their clothes after wearing them.


Keep moving those goalposts. You changed your argument from ‘they are controlling us’ to ‘we are too dumb to learn’. Science doesn’t care about anyone’s feelings anyway. “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:44 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

The major Asian economies are doing far better than we are with containment and spread. Ya'll have fun with *THAT*.


I'm not wearing a mask the rest of my life. And do you really think most Americans are smart enough to properly use a mask? They either can only be worn once or mist be sanitized. Many people still aren't washing their hands and plenty don't even wash their clothes after wearing them.


Keep moving those goalposts. You changed your argument from ‘they are controlling us’ to ‘we are too dumb to learn’. Science doesn’t care about anyone’s feelings anyway. “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman


I didn't change anything. No reason that controlling a dumb populace isn't a goal of government. Most are incapable of thinking for themselves.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:42 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

I'm not wearing a mask the rest of my life. And do you really think most Americans are smart enough to properly use a mask? They either can only be worn once or mist be sanitized. Many people still aren't washing their hands and plenty don't even wash their clothes after wearing them.


Keep moving those goalposts. You changed your argument from ‘they are controlling us’ to ‘we are too dumb to learn’. Science doesn’t care about anyone’s feelings anyway. “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman


I didn't change anything. No reason that controlling a dumb populace isn't a goal of government. Most are incapable of thinking for themselves.


Whether or not people can think for themselves is an entirely separate matter from the science or guidelines stemming from it.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:54 am

Millions of Japanese may be infected with the Coronavirus.


During random testing of new incoming patients at a hospital in Shinjuku, Tokyo coming in for ailments other than virus symptoms, 4 out of 67 patients or 6% tested positive for the virus, suggesting a high penetrance among Japan's 130 million inhabitants.

https://www.news24.jp/articles/2020/04/22/07630451.html



Tokyo governor Koike has proclaimed a stay-home week until the upcoming golden week as mitigation is still way insufficient.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/shutoken-news/20 ... 47878.html



52 year old Covid-19 'light case' patient told to sick it out at home due to lack of hospital beds, found dead.
The person didn't respond to a call and was found unresponsive at his home.
Hundreds more are sicking it out at home in Saitama prefecture.

https://www.news24.jp/articles/2020/04/22/07630532.html



Kanagawa prefecture asking people to stop visiting beaches using posters. (beaches full of people can be seen).

https://www.news24.jp/articles/2020/04/ ... l#cxrecs_s



Japan failing to achieve mitigation.
Footage of Shinagawa Station full of people this morning (April 23rd) despite a 77% reduction in people traffic.

https://www.news24.jp/articles/2020/04/23/07630820.html



Start of drive-trough testing in Osaka

https://www.news24.jp/articles/2020/04/23/07630809.html
 
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:39 am

Aaron747 wrote:
How limited can imagination be, seems like the real question here. Obviously people are not going to continue covering their mouth with mask when eating and drinking - that’s not even the point.


casinterest wrote:
You missed the point. The issue being that being in close proximity within a restaurant exposes you automatically.


The point is, despite claiming this isn't political, no opportunity to slam Democrats can be missed. :sarcastic:

flyguy89 wrote:
What is so hard to understand?


All of it, apparently.
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:39 am

Francoflier : I don't have an answer but you see what's happening in France. The government has proposed a "partial reopening" date, then plans to work on the details in the meantime, floats ideas, etc.

For each idea, you have two camps forming :
- camp 1 : is the government crazy, murderers !
- camp 2 : is the government trying to kill business, insane !

Now even the priests are fuming that their churches might stay closed, haven't they noticed that most of their flock is highly likely to die if they catch the virus ?
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:09 am

Aesma wrote:
Francoflier : I don't have an answer but you see what's happening in France. The government has proposed a "partial reopening" date, then plans to work on the details in the meantime, floats ideas, etc.

For each idea, you have two camps forming :
- camp 1 : is the government crazy, murderers !
- camp 2 : is the government trying to kill business, insane !

Now even the priests are fuming that their churches might stay closed, haven't they noticed that most of their flock is highly likely to die if they catch the virus ?


This is why this represents one of the greatest conundrum our society has faced recently (other than climate change, the consequences of which will be more even severe, but which is happening at a generational pace).
There is no easy, fast or painless solution to this problem. We must decide where we place the cursor on the scale.
People will die, others will lose their jobs and livelihoods. All I know is that the solution does not lie in the extremes, and standing down an entire population and its associated economy for an undetermined amount of time is one of these extremes. Reverting to business as usual is the other.

There are many mitigation measures than can be taken to minimize community infection. Some nations have achieved very low spread with less restrictions than in the West. Granted, many weren't blindsided by the disease and acted faster.

Hygiene, mask wearing, generalized temperature control, isolation of patients, contact tracing and isolation of close contacts, mass testing, strengthening of the healthcare system to cope, etc. Educating the population and getting them onboard is probably the biggest challenge. PR campaigns on the subject should be relentless.

The goal should be to maintain the infection rate flat and manageable by the healthcare system, even if it means occasional loosening or strengthening of the rules to adjust to the evolving situation.
We have come to the point where the current general paralysis is getting worse than the disease.

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Millions of Japanese may be infected with the Coronavirus.


Japan is an interesting case. They never seemed to take the disease seriously. They certainly never seemed to test on a large scale. I wonder how much trying not to lose the Olympics influenced their early management of the outbreak, especially for a country so exposed to tourism from China.
That being said, the figures for Japan, which would have been exposed quite early on, are still quite low. Whether this is due to a generally healthier population, better hygiene, or whether they simply have no idea how big the problem is yet due to lack of testing is still to be known.
So far the number of daily cases remain low compared to Western nations. We shall see what happens with more testing.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
rfields5421
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:20 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Japan is an interesting case. They never seemed to take the disease seriously. They certainly never seemed to test on a large scale. I wonder how much trying not to lose the Olympics influenced their early management of the outbreak, especially for a country so exposed to tourism from China.
That being said, the figures for Japan, which would have been exposed quite early on, are still quite low. Whether this is due to a generally healthier population, better hygiene, or whether they simply have no idea how big the problem is yet due to lack of testing is still to be known.
So far the number of daily cases remain low compared to Western nations. We shall see what happens with more testing.


It has been almost 35 years since I lived in Japan, but one thing which I noted when I lived there was face masks.

The Japanese public in general were always quick to wear a cloth face mask if a person had a cough, runny nose or such. It was not polite or socially acceptable to be in public without a mask and any signs of a respiratory infection. People would self-isolate quickly and early.

Maybe they still do that.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:34 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
How dumb can people be? A doctor consulting the city of Memphis said that everyone may be wearing masks in restaurants. No, people will not do that. A mask kind of gets in the way of eating and drinking. Memphis is all Democrats and has been for decades. This is the kind of stuff they're coming up with. :banghead:


you wear a mask to and from the table. my goodness, you're thick.
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:41 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Japan is an interesting case. They never seemed to take the disease seriously. They certainly never seemed to test on a large scale. I wonder how much trying not to lose the Olympics influenced their early management of the outbreak, especially for a country so exposed to tourism from China.
That being said, the figures for Japan, which would have been exposed quite early on, are still quite low. Whether this is due to a generally healthier population, better hygiene, or whether they simply have no idea how big the problem is yet due to lack of testing is still to be known.
So far the number of daily cases remain low compared to Western nations. We shall see what happens with more testing.


It has been almost 35 years since I lived in Japan, but one thing which I noted when I lived there was face masks.

The Japanese public in general were always quick to wear a cloth face mask if a person had a cough, runny nose or such. It was not polite or socially acceptable to be in public without a mask and any signs of a respiratory infection. People would self-isolate quickly and early.

Maybe they still do that.


what part of Japan were you in? NRT wasn't like that 20 years ago. however in China shoppers wore masks, I assumed that was because of the heavy pollution.
 
rfields5421
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:52 pm

Yokosuka, Yokohama, Tokyo Metro area. Very common in trains and subways, stores on the street. Japanese workers on the base wore masks often.

If an American sailor came in one morning and was coughing, the Japanese workers were usually in masks within hours,

Used to see entire groups of kids walking to school wearing masks.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:21 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
Yokosuka, Yokohama, Tokyo Metro area. Very common in trains and subways, stores on the street. Japanese workers on the base wore masks often.

If an American sailor came in one morning and was coughing, the Japanese workers were usually in masks within hours,

Used to see entire groups of kids walking to school wearing masks.


It was no different all the time I was living there - masks were especially common this time of year due to the huge number of people with tree pollen allergies. Taking antihistamines is frowned upon because drowsiness and yawning can lead to poor performance reviews at work - in any case Japanese people will routinely come to work sick and stay home only if they have very high fevers.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:47 pm

Etika wrote:
olle wrote:
Sweden givernment now considers that 1/3 of population in stocjholm regions has been infected.


That was based on a report by Swedish Health Agency that was quickly withdrawn: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel ... us-report/

The numbers in the withdrawn report would have meant that there would have been about 1000 times more cases than than positive tests. Which was so glaringly impossible that it boggles the mind how no-one did a recheck on numbers before publication.

The interesting question is whether the problem is was just in that report or whether it is a problem in the model that the Health Agency has been using for their decision making so far. If the latter, the whole basis of the Swedish strategy for at least few previous weeks might have just gone out the window...



Revised number are now 26%. Some wrong input gave to high numbers.
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:54 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
I'm interested to know what proponents of strict lockdowns propose as far as exit strategy.

We keep hearing about stopping everybody's lives for an indeterminate amount of time, seemingly regardless of any unintended consequences or the possibility of less extreme measures to contain spreading, yet I tend to fail hearing about when and how we get to finally get out of our caves?

Waiting until there are 0 cases might be feasible for smaller countries which never really got badly infected, but waiting for such in Europe or the US is not a viable proposition as it may take months or years.
So where do we go from there? How much do we destroy because we refuse to acknowledge that there are inherent risks to living?

This is the reason I understand the Swedish approach. The number of daily transmission has stabilized. The number of critical cases is no higher than anywhere else. In this state, the number of active cases would eventually stabilize at around the number of daily new cases (roughly 600).

While some places might have the luxury of eliminating the disease (at the cost of isolating themselves from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future), many others will not, and will have to live with the disease. The goal then becomes trying to protect the more vulnerable people and keeping the infection rate manageable for the healthcare system.
So how do we do that?

Good question, we all are going to get COVID19 some time. The virus won't vanish from earth all of the sudden. We are far from a vaccine and even if the vaccine is effective, to get to 100% of the population will take at the very least a decade.

The vaccine, when it comes, there will already be different mutations of the virus, so lets see what happens.

In the meantime, I hope things open up gradually and try not to create outbreaks that would overwhelm our hospital facilities, we should by now have built sufficient infrastructure for this. COVID19 is going to stick around for a long time and we can't keep hiding under a cave for years. If any of you want to keep hiding, be my guest, but don't force me to do that under the penalty of jail or fines.

All of the governments of the world will do measures like Sweden in the near future, but won't ever admit that they did. Herd immunity, its what will bring the world to normalcy again.



First as a swede talking fluent spanish and had following spanish and italian news I have been quit unplessient to send my 9 year old girl to school the last few weeks.

I must say I am surprised to see many countries open up this early and not in mid june when summer increase temperatures.

Open up now with the virus active means that you first close everything one month with extreme cost, then you move to a swedish style model where you accept that up to 50% need to get sick.

It seems that swedish tactics has been working ok within most groups exept somali immigrants. Around 40% death comes from this quit small group.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:51 pm

olle wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
I'm interested to know what proponents of strict lockdowns propose as far as exit strategy.

We keep hearing about stopping everybody's lives for an indeterminate amount of time, seemingly regardless of any unintended consequences or the possibility of less extreme measures to contain spreading, yet I tend to fail hearing about when and how we get to finally get out of our caves?

Waiting until there are 0 cases might be feasible for smaller countries which never really got badly infected, but waiting for such in Europe or the US is not a viable proposition as it may take months or years.
So where do we go from there? How much do we destroy because we refuse to acknowledge that there are inherent risks to living?

This is the reason I understand the Swedish approach. The number of daily transmission has stabilized. The number of critical cases is no higher than anywhere else. In this state, the number of active cases would eventually stabilize at around the number of daily new cases (roughly 600).

While some places might have the luxury of eliminating the disease (at the cost of isolating themselves from the rest of the World for the foreseeable future), many others will not, and will have to live with the disease. The goal then becomes trying to protect the more vulnerable people and keeping the infection rate manageable for the healthcare system.
So how do we do that?

Good question, we all are going to get COVID19 some time. The virus won't vanish from earth all of the sudden. We are far from a vaccine and even if the vaccine is effective, to get to 100% of the population will take at the very least a decade.

The vaccine, when it comes, there will already be different mutations of the virus, so lets see what happens.

In the meantime, I hope things open up gradually and try not to create outbreaks that would overwhelm our hospital facilities, we should by now have built sufficient infrastructure for this. COVID19 is going to stick around for a long time and we can't keep hiding under a cave for years. If any of you want to keep hiding, be my guest, but don't force me to do that under the penalty of jail or fines.

All of the governments of the world will do measures like Sweden in the near future, but won't ever admit that they did. Herd immunity, its what will bring the world to normalcy again.



First as a swede talking fluent spanish and had following spanish and italian news I have been quit unplessient to send my 9 year old girl to school the last few weeks.

I must say I am surprised to see many countries open up this early and not in mid june when summer increase temperatures.

Open up now with the virus active means that you first close everything one month with extreme cost, then you move to a swedish style model where you accept that up to 50% need to get sick.

It seems that swedish tactics has been working ok within most groups exept somali immigrants. Around 40% death comes from this quit small group.


You that are on Sweden, the question is, the hospital and medical infrastructure has it collapsed as a result of this? are you lacking ICU beds? ventilators? we know that deaths are higher than other nations in the region but not as high as France, the UK, Italy and Spain. But the measures we have adopted in the rest of the world initially were supposedly so that we don't over run the medical facilities.

It would seem to me that if we had done the measures that Sweden has done, we might not even have collapsed the hospital infrastructure in the US, we never did anyways, but the levels that it reached at the peak for example in NY was 22%. So Wuhan, Italy and Spain never happened here thankfully. In any case Sweden might just be one of the first nations in the world in a few months, that would have naturally inmmuned their nation from COVID19 without the need for a vaccine, of course the death toll is a bad statistic right now, just that maybe you all got them faster than the rest of the world.

That's all for us to see later on. Too early to tell.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:50 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
olle wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Good question, we all are going to get COVID19 some time. The virus won't vanish from earth all of the sudden. We are far from a vaccine and even if the vaccine is effective, to get to 100% of the population will take at the very least a decade.

The vaccine, when it comes, there will already be different mutations of the virus, so lets see what happens.

In the meantime, I hope things open up gradually and try not to create outbreaks that would overwhelm our hospital facilities, we should by now have built sufficient infrastructure for this. COVID19 is going to stick around for a long time and we can't keep hiding under a cave for years. If any of you want to keep hiding, be my guest, but don't force me to do that under the penalty of jail or fines.

All of the governments of the world will do measures like Sweden in the near future, but won't ever admit that they did. Herd immunity, its what will bring the world to normalcy again.



First as a swede talking fluent spanish and had following spanish and italian news I have been quit unplessient to send my 9 year old girl to school the last few weeks.

I must say I am surprised to see many countries open up this early and not in mid june when summer increase temperatures.

Open up now with the virus active means that you first close everything one month with extreme cost, then you move to a swedish style model where you accept that up to 50% need to get sick.

It seems that swedish tactics has been working ok within most groups exept somali immigrants. Around 40% death comes from this quit small group.


You that are on Sweden, the question is, the hospital and medical infrastructure has it collapsed as a result of this? are you lacking ICU beds? ventilators? we know that deaths are higher than other nations in the region but not as high as France, the UK, Italy and Spain. But the measures we have adopted in the rest of the world initially were supposedly so that we don't over run the medical facilities.

It would seem to me that if we had done the measures that Sweden has done, we might not even have collapsed the hospital infrastructure in the US, we never did anyways, but the levels that it reached at the peak for example in NY was 22%. So Wuhan, Italy and Spain never happened here thankfully. In any case Sweden might just be one of the first nations in the world in a few months, that would have naturally inmmuned their nation from COVID19 without the need for a vaccine, of course the death toll is a bad statistic right now, just that maybe you all got them faster than the rest of the world.

That's all for us to see later on. Too early to tell.


The link from swedish healthcsre in swedish ;-) says that is stockholm region worse hit in sweden there is 1200 intensice care beds compared to 500 before the crisis, not including mikitary hospitals prepared but not used.

Of these 520 is used by covid patients in stockholm region.

It claimed that there is well enough of resources with option to increase ecen more if needed with short notise.

https://www.socialstyrelsen.se/coronavi ... h-uppdrag/

The counted new cases is the ones requesting health care service. These the last week constant and expected to start to go down.
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:53 pm

Translation of text,



News from the National Board of Health and Welfare right now
IVA seats (updated April 23)
There are currently 1131 IVA sites (not included, for example, the field hospital in Stockholm) compared to 526 places before the care began to change. At 524 IVA sites, covid-19 patients are currently being cared for.
To date, 1217 people have been cared for at IVA for covid-19.
Capacity is available for IVA sites, just over 20 percent in the country. But access differs between different regions.
In order to achieve a more even burden on healthcare personnel and materials, the Swedish Armed Forces helps with the transport of patients by IVA patients. A national group coordinates and coordinates the burden on intensive care in the six health care regions.
materials supply
The National Board of Health and Welfare has signed an agreement on equipment for SEK 1 billion. For example, for 800 respirators and 12 million face masks. Deliveries are made on a continuous basis and distributed after quality control to the healthcare system.
We work closely with the Swedish Defense Materiel Administration, which supports contractual agreements and quality contracts with suppliers.
The National Board of Health and Welfare has received about 300 requests for support in the form of extra material and protective equipment for regions and municipalities.
The amount of protective equipment remains very limited. Most of the country's regions report significant to serious impact on access to protective equipment.
Hand spirit and protective gloves are currently in stock at the National Board of Health and Welfare as an extra resource. Handsprit will be distributed to municipal care and care in an information initiative made together with SKR.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:00 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
yonahleung wrote:
Yes. And it is common sight here in Hong Kong. You just react and have a discussion with students like normal. Just put one on and see how it goes. Though with the level of speaking necessary, it will probably require a fresh mask after every lecture. But those of us in Hong Kong are already expecting to use 3 masks each day in summer anyway.


Y'all have fun with that.


The major Asian economies are doing far better than we are with containment and spread. Ya'll have fun with *THAT*.


Those Asian countries have a process for efficient testing and contact tracing, along with masks that seems to work. Figure out how to make it constitutional within whatever system you have and the technology is there so that isn't the problem.

These have to be done by the western nations if they have any hope of reopening and this is what frustrates me about the Canadian government is they don't appear to have a plan or if they do they aren't releasing it to the public. We have been in this state for 7 weeks and the more conservative estimates are saying another 4 or 8 more. Canadians cooperate more than Americans but the clock is ticking on us too before we protest like the US has been doing. Hospitals are not full so liberating some things would make sense.

Some provinces are ahead of other such as BC and Alberta and are looking at opening some things up, Quebec has more and a lot of that is due to more travelers returning as they have an early spring break. Ontario has a high amount of cases 12,789 and 713 deaths (half unfortunately in long term care homes) but people forget that the population is 14.5 million (we would be the 5th largest US state by population) we are vastly doing better than New York and Michigan. We know the second wave is coming so lets get prepared and this is what Chris Cuomo was saying the other day, lets be ready for spike number 2 with the PPE and ventilators so if come October the cases jump we are ready.

RJMAZ wrote:
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-22/only-four-new-cases-coronavirus-nationally/12173702

Australia has done such an excellent job. About 80% of businesses remained open during the lockdown. Living in Melbourne everything feels so normal as everywhere I normally go has remained open. Went to my local hardware store today, then went for a surf and just had dinner at my local kebab shop.

I think once a country reaches a certain percentage of infections the lockdown has to be too severe and long for the population to be OK with it. Singapore has spiked the last couple days because their lockdown has been going for 8 weeks. People only have so much patience.

I hope Australia keeps this "stage 3" lockdown for a couple more months. People are starting to get more confident and going out more so easing restrictions could see a flood of parties and potential virus spread.

Australia might be able to eliminate this entirely. Experts are saying that we have done well better than expected in our supression mode. We have matched New Zealand which was in a more extreme level 4 elimination.mode.


I wonder with Australia and New Zealand if this does tick up as your winter and flu season comes but both countries have done well managing this.
Cases in Southern hemisphere have been low across the board partly with restrictions but its also just at the beginning of autumn now.

There seems to be seasonality with this, not that warmer places have no cases but far less than North America and Western Europe. You can still get the flu in the summer its just far less to be prominent and in tropical climates it is constant throughout the year.
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