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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:46 am

scbriml wrote:
speedking wrote:
This is pure mathematics.


speedking wrote:
Just pure mathematics.


Your claims are as far from "pure mathematics" as it's possible to get. :rotfl:

winginit wrote:
Ah of course, because if there are no statistics that back your view, just say all of the other statistics are bogus!


Hey, it's how the "greatest president in history" rolls, so why not? :wink2:


Don't forget 'the greatest economy the world has ever seen'. :drool:
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art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:18 am

I think the easy way to estimate coronavirus deaths is to compare historical deaths for a given week in the year with the same in previous years. The chart on this page shows it very clearly: https://fullfact.org/health/ons-2020-co ... th-totals/
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:23 am

art wrote:
I think the easy way to estimate coronavirus deaths is to compare historical deaths for a given week in the year with the same in previous years. The chart on this page shows it very clearly: https://fullfact.org/health/ons-2020-co ... th-totals/


But we don't have an accurate count of coronavirus deaths. Slimy state officials are counting anyone who died while they had the virus no matter how bad of shape they were already in. And some people weren't even tested but just "suspected" of having it. How in the world is that scientific? We have a few people here who live and breath "by the science of the pandemic". Which is absolutely silly considering a room full of doctors and bioengineers will all have different conclusiona.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:58 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Which is absolutely silly considering a room full of doctors and bioengineers will all have different conclusiona.


Not silly at all - that’s what scientific inquiry is - testing ideas based on observation until they are no longer wrong. Without scientists critically questioning each other’s analyses and data, it would be impossible to find the facts. That is altogether different than protocols borne out of long experience with emergent disease, that have been developed by consensus. Once policymakers hear these recommendations and act upon them, the effects trigger your feelings, and you deem their source incorrect, which is itself, silly.
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:00 am

art wrote:
I think the easy way to estimate coronavirus deaths is to compare historical deaths for a given week in the year with the same in previous years. The chart on this page shows it very clearly: https://fullfact.org/health/ons-2020-co ... th-totals/


Perhaps not so accurate, unless the calculation is considering the deviation in normal inputs for an ‘average’ year - distancing has reduced road traffic, workplace presence, and street interactions, so accidents and crime are also down. If adjusted for that, the interpolation may be valuable.
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mad99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:23 am

Tomorrow, here in Madrid, if you have a kid you can take them outside for one hour but no more than 1km away from your house. If it happens it will be the first time my kids have left this flat since the lockdown.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:28 am

It's refreshing to see that even those in California have had enough of the government over-reach. 40,000 went to the beach on Friday. Our government has taken away our culture and attempting to make it something cold, antiseptic, and depressing. They've taken our happiness and our freedom. Who wants to live this kind of life? And for what?
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:29 am

mad99 wrote:
Tomorrow, here in Madrid, if you have a kid you can take them outside for one hour but no more than 1km away from your house. If it happens it will be the first time my kids have left this flat since the lockdown.


And how are they going to enforce such a thing? Do they have enough cops to follow everyone with a stopwatch?
 
art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:33 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
art wrote:
I think the easy way to estimate coronavirus deaths is to compare historical deaths for a given week in the year with the same in previous years. The chart on this page shows it very clearly: https://fullfact.org/health/ons-2020-co ... th-totals/


But we don't have an accurate count of coronavirus deaths. Slimy state officials are counting anyone who died while they had the virus no matter how bad of shape they were already in. And some people weren't even tested but just "suspected" of having it. How in the world is that scientific? We have a few people here who live and breath "by the science of the pandemic". Which is absolutely silly considering a room full of doctors and bioengineers will all have different conclusiona.


Slimy state officials are counting anyone who died while they had the virus no matter how bad of shape they were already in.

Did the slimy state officials say they were counting deaths due entirely to the virus? What is wrong with reporting that the deceased was infected with the virus? That is fact. Information. May be an inconvenient truth for those looking for a reporting system that diminishes the impact of the virus so they can argue that measures taken to reduce the spread of the virus are inappropriate.

But we don't have an accurate count of coronavirus deaths.

Agreed. That is why I suggest referring back to deaths reported in previous years for the purposes of comparison. What has changed this year? Thousands more died being hit by tornadoes? Or by storms? Or by terrorist attacks? Apart from the virus, what can be identified as causing thousands more deaths each week in the UK?
 
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mad99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:03 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
mad99 wrote:
Tomorrow, here in Madrid, if you have a kid you can take them outside for one hour but no more than 1km away from your house. If it happens it will be the first time my kids have left this flat since the lockdown.


And how are they going to enforce such a thing? Do they have enough cops to follow everyone with a stopwatch?



Most people will respect it.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:04 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
It's refreshing to see that even those in California have had enough of the government over-reach. 40,000 went to the beach on Friday. Our government has taken away our culture and attempting to make it something cold, antiseptic, and depressing. They've taken our happiness and our freedom. Who wants to live this kind of life? And for what?


I have been to several beaches, the Guadalupe dunes, San Simeon, and gone on regular hikes around the nine sisters all within the last few weeks. On cloudy days I have taken drives in the back country vineyards of Paso Robles. Nobody has stopped me or told me I can’t. Living in CA is actually quite grand, despite what’s going on, especially outside LA and the Bay.
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:22 pm

mad99 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
mad99 wrote:
Tomorrow, here in Madrid, if you have a kid you can take them outside for one hour but no more than 1km away from your house. If it happens it will be the first time my kids have left this flat since the lockdown.


And how are they going to enforce such a thing? Do they have enough cops to follow everyone with a stopwatch?


Most people will respect it.


Just like the vast majority do in the UK. But it's simply too much for some.
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AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:47 pm

Some common sense based on facts not flawed models from a Doctor from Stanford university:

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.

Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19....... (expands on the link)

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding....

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.....

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections....

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures....

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

Common sense in these times of panic and misinformation. I hope these over the top measures are reduced to common sense measures soon.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:57 pm

^ They will be, as soon as testing infrastructure is ramped up, which will allow us to focus on points 2, 3, and 5.
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PPVRA
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:27 pm

Great interview with Swedish Prof. Johan Giesecke, epidemiologist advisor to Sweden and the WHO, former Chief Scientist of the European CDC.

https://youtu.be/bfN2JWifLCY
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
ltbewr
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:46 pm

I have a brother who is 64 years old, lives in NJ and called our mom last night from ORD waiting for a connecting flight to MKL (he mainly uses AA). He is a 'gig' worker, he evaluates (usually from his car) properties to consider the purchase for investors of the property tax, water and sewer and related debts, usually paying municipalities 79-81% of the taxes/fees due, getting a lien on and paid the full amount when the property is sold. After Milwaukee, he will be going to Florida by plane for more work. He expects to be on the road for the next 3 weeks.
I think he is a fool (he is also a hard core Trump/Republican supporter while I am a complete opposite politically) but he has no alternative but work or literally die as would have no income and bills to pay. He is also putting others at risk as a possible 'super spreader' or getting infected and bringing it to other places or back to NJ. This is just a small example of the horrible dilemma we are facing with this pandemic and managing it.
 
PPVRA
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:22 pm

ltbewr wrote:
I have a brother who is 64 years old, lives in NJ and called our mom last night from ORD waiting for a connecting flight to MKL (he mainly uses AA). He is a 'gig' worker, he evaluates (usually from his car) properties to consider the purchase for investors of the property tax, water and sewer and related debts, usually paying municipalities 79-81% of the taxes/fees due, getting a lien on and paid the full amount when the property is sold. After Milwaukee, he will be going to Florida by plane for more work. He expects to be on the road for the next 3 weeks.
I think he is a fool (he is also a hard core Trump/Republican supporter while I am a complete opposite politically) but he has no alternative but work or literally die as would have no income and bills to pay. He is also putting others at risk as a possible 'super spreader' or getting infected and bringing it to other places or back to NJ. This is just a small example of the horrible dilemma we are facing with this pandemic and managing it.


At that age, it sounds risky. But the one factor that might help him is how empty planes are flying today. You can social distance even in economy class with loads below 20%.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
winginit
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:46 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
It's refreshing to see that even those in California have had enough of the government over-reach. 40,000 went to the beach on Friday. Our government has taken away our culture and attempting to make it something cold, antiseptic, and depressing. They've taken our happiness and our freedom. Who wants to live this kind of life? And for what?


Uhm... because you appear to be unaware, Ventura and Orange County beaches are still open, and have been, so no, 40,000 people had not 'had enough of the government overreach', they were going to open beaches as is their unencumbered right not some act of rebellion. Honestly please educate yourself before you post it's just embarrassing.

Aaron747 wrote:
Living in CA is actually quite grand, despite what’s going on, especially outside LA and the Bay.


Shhh. Don't tell them. It's been heaven without any traffic and we don't need any more.
 
Concierge
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:25 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Some common sense based on facts not flawed models from a Doctor from Stanford university:

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.

Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19....... (expands on the link)

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding....

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.....

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections....

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures....

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

Common sense in these times of panic and misinformation. I hope these over the top measures are reduced to common sense measures soon.


It's a well-written, reasoned discussion worthy of consideration. Reasonable folks can disagree on this interpretation.

The first point of analysis is very narrow. Yes, death is unlikely in the general population, but there are severe, life altering consequences short of death. Loss of lung function will compromise your life in many ways.

Herd immunity works, but its not certain that antibodies confer immunity in this case. It's one of the quirks of virology.

And the first line - ' Five key facts are being ignored...'. Yes, it's on the opinion page, but a MD should know better. Reasonable people can draw different conclusions from the same facts.

A good read from a truthful and qualified source is still deserving of scrutiny.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:40 pm

Concierge wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Some common sense based on facts not flawed models from a Doctor from Stanford university:

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.

Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19....... (expands on the link)

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding....

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.....

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections....

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures....

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

Common sense in these times of panic and misinformation. I hope these over the top measures are reduced to common sense measures soon.


It's a well-written, reasoned discussion worthy of consideration. Reasonable folks can disagree on this interpretation.

The first point of analysis is very narrow. Yes, death is unlikely in the general population, but there are severe, life altering consequences short of death. Loss of lung function will compromise your life in many ways.

Herd immunity works, but its not certain that antibodies confer immunity in this case. It's one of the quirks of virology.

And the first line - ' Five key facts are being ignored...'. Yes, it's on the opinion page, but a MD should know better. Reasonable people can draw different conclusions from the same facts.

A good read from a truthful and qualified source is still deserving of scrutiny.


What different conclusions can arise from this? Truth of the matter is, which I have been saying for weeks or more than a month, makes no sense keeping the population that is not at risk of dying and having others dying from COVID be kept locked-down. We can socially distance, have our precautions and keep on with life. The vulnerable population should just stay home and not get into contact with others.

This is common sense. We all, I agree, all were afraid at the beginning, but in reality if the chances are I get flu-like symptoms, I am all for it, and according to my age, I am not even 40 yet and have great health, in my home no one would experience any sort of health complications. We have learned to live with risks, how can we not learn how to live with COVID after many many years or great technological advance, we are resorting ourselves to cave-men era levels of caution. Doesn't make sense. We individuals can learn how to do millions of difficult things, yet according to the governments we don't know how to do just one. Doesn't make sense.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:40 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Some common sense based on facts not flawed models from a Doctor from Stanford university:

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.

Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19....... (expands on the link)

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding....

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.....

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections....

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures....

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

Common sense in these times of panic and misinformation. I hope these over the top measures are reduced to common sense measures soon.


While you laid out the facts nicely, there are caveats, this may hurt some peoples feelings.

In the USA, young doesn't mean healthy(fact). Allergies, Autism, physical/mental challenges, learning disabilities combined with entitlement became a nuisance to the society.

I will exercise my right but if I am in trouble my parents or grandparents have to take care of me mindset is ruining the youth.

Another fact, Kids may die before their parents.

Like I said in the past, if an older person gets hit with COVID-19 and dies, well he/she lived enough years of good life, if a 20-year-old picks up a debilitating lifetime disorder, they have to suffer their lifetime along with their family.
All posts are just opinions.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:49 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
art wrote:
I think the easy way to estimate coronavirus deaths is to compare historical deaths for a given week in the year with the same in previous years. The chart on this page shows it very clearly: https://fullfact.org/health/ons-2020-co ... th-totals/


Perhaps not so accurate, unless the calculation is considering the deviation in normal inputs for an ‘average’ year - distancing has reduced road traffic, workplace presence, and street interactions, so accidents and crime are also down. If adjusted for that, the interpolation may be valuable.


Comparing this years week with last years week is a useful comparison. But it is not perfect. Another factor but opposite, is that a person already sick and close to dying in the next 6 months likely will die early if they contract the virus.
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:50 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
mad99 wrote:
Tomorrow, here in Madrid, if you have a kid you can take them outside for one hour but no more than 1km away from your house. If it happens it will be the first time my kids have left this flat since the lockdown.


And how are they going to enforce such a thing? Do they have enough cops to follow everyone with a stopwatch?


Here in France where the rule has been like that from the beginning of the lockdown, you need to write down the time when filling out the form allowing you to go outside. So if you stay out more than an hour it's visible.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Concierge
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:54 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Concierge wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Some common sense based on facts not flawed models from a Doctor from Stanford university:

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.

Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19....... (expands on the link)

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding....

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.....

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections....

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures....

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation

Common sense in these times of panic and misinformation. I hope these over the top measures are reduced to common sense measures soon.


It's a well-written, reasoned discussion worthy of consideration. Reasonable folks can disagree on this interpretation.

The first point of analysis is very narrow. Yes, death is unlikely in the general population, but there are severe, life altering consequences short of death. Loss of lung function will compromise your life in many ways.

Herd immunity works, but its not certain that antibodies confer immunity in this case. It's one of the quirks of virology.

And the first line - ' Five key facts are being ignored...'. Yes, it's on the opinion page, but a MD should know better. Reasonable people can draw different conclusions from the same facts.

A good read from a truthful and qualified source is still deserving of scrutiny.


What different conclusions can arise from this? Truth of the matter is, which I have been saying for weeks or more than a month, makes no sense keeping the population that is not at risk of dying and having others dying from COVID be kept locked-down. We can socially distance, have our precautions and keep on with life. The vulnerable population should just stay home and not get into contact with others.

This is common sense. We all, I agree, all were afraid at the beginning, but in reality if the chances are I get flu-like symptoms, I am all for it, and according to my age, I am not even 40 yet and have great health, in my home no one would experience any sort of health complications. We have learned to live with risks, how can we not learn how to live with COVID after many many years or great technological advance, we are resorting ourselves to cave-men era levels of caution. Doesn't make sense. We individuals can learn how to do millions of difficult things, yet according to the governments we don't know how to do just one. Doesn't make sense.


Your first sentence shows that this isn't a discussion for you. You cite yourself as an authority and your your circumstances as universal. Oh, and you didn't consider anything I wrote. Stay well!
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:59 pm

Francoflier wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Well today was an argument against opening up the economies again

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

103,000 + new cases. Highest yet world wide.
37,000+ in the USA Highest yet in the USA.


The numbers of one day do not a trend make.

Covid is a game of data, and the least we can say is that this data is incomplete and variable. The overall number of reported cases entirely depends on the amount of testing done. As testing is ramping up around the World, I expect the figure to increase closer to the actual number of cases, which we pretty much know is much higher than the reported figures. We just don't know by how much yet.
Different countries also have different rates of testing. The number of tests/million inhabitants vary from only a few hundred to over 100.000 in some places.
This picture will keep evolving.

Note that the daily death toll is remaining somewhat constant and is not showing an upwards trend (it could still). This is not an accurate figure either as every country has a different way of categorizing and counting the deaths. Many patients for instance were already critically ill and COVID is what finally got them. Some may count that as a covid death, others may consider that the patient was dying of something else, which might be especially prevalent among the older population.
Then there's the retirement homes figures, which might or might not be included depending on which country you ask.
The death count may show a slightly more accurate picture of the progress of the disease (because it is easy to count the dead), but it may still wildly vary depending on what changes are made to the calculation by different authorities.

We are a long way from understanding the complete impact of the disease, but as time goes, testing will become more generalized (instead of initially only testing the worse symptomatic cases), showing more and more cases, while the number of deaths is likely to not evolve much (in the way it is counted), thus bringing us closer to the real mortality rate.

A good indicator I find is the number of critical cases, which are reported by hospitals. While it is likely to be still inaccurate, it probably is less so than the other figures as very sick people tend to seek care and will get tested.
That figure appears to have stabilized. It even decreased yesterday.

None of this can predict the future, but making a broad decision regarding people's lives based on one unreliable figure is a non-starter, especially if you keep refusing to analyse and weigh the consequences of it on the other side of the equation.
Again, no one wants to see anyone die, but no one wants to become unemployed on the long term and start defaulting on their payments, be evicted and endure years of hardship along with their families. Not to mention that in the US at least (and in many poorer nations), economic hardship means restricted access to healthcare, which will necessarily turn into an increased death rate, especially given the prevalence of heart conditions, diabetes and the like in North America. And that's not even scratching the surface on the unintended consequences, in terms of mortality and others, of a prolonged voluntary economic collapse.

It's easy for many to just say 'stay home', especially for those who have little to lose from it because they can work from home, or are financially secure enough to weather it, but you can't make that decision for everyone else - i.e. the majority of people - especially not without analyzing the pros AND the cons.



The issue is that many people will not return to the open economy even when it comes back due to unknown exposure. Opening up the economy will still move towards overwhelming medical centers, and at this point, no great strides have been made to get ready for "opening' the economy and sicking legions more . So at ths point opening the economy makes little sense as we still haven't flattened the curve enough.

Georgia will be an interesting test of the opening. We will see how it goes in a week or two.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:03 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Well today was an argument against opening up the economies again

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

103,000 + new cases. Highest yet world wide.
37,000+ in the USA Highest yet in the USA.


This is nothing but propaganda. Just because many more now have access to testing it doesn't mean the rate is increasing.


Nothing but propaganda? and you base that on what? Your lack of perspective?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:14 pm

Concierge wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Concierge wrote:

It's a well-written, reasoned discussion worthy of consideration. Reasonable folks can disagree on this interpretation.

The first point of analysis is very narrow. Yes, death is unlikely in the general population, but there are severe, life altering consequences short of death. Loss of lung function will compromise your life in many ways.

Herd immunity works, but its not certain that antibodies confer immunity in this case. It's one of the quirks of virology.

And the first line - ' Five key facts are being ignored...'. Yes, it's on the opinion page, but a MD should know better. Reasonable people can draw different conclusions from the same facts.

A good read from a truthful and qualified source is still deserving of scrutiny.


What different conclusions can arise from this? Truth of the matter is, which I have been saying for weeks or more than a month, makes no sense keeping the population that is not at risk of dying and having others dying from COVID be kept locked-down. We can socially distance, have our precautions and keep on with life. The vulnerable population should just stay home and not get into contact with others.

This is common sense. We all, I agree, all were afraid at the beginning, but in reality if the chances are I get flu-like symptoms, I am all for it, and according to my age, I am not even 40 yet and have great health, in my home no one would experience any sort of health complications. We have learned to live with risks, how can we not learn how to live with COVID after many many years or great technological advance, we are resorting ourselves to cave-men era levels of caution. Doesn't make sense. We individuals can learn how to do millions of difficult things, yet according to the governments we don't know how to do just one. Doesn't make sense.


Your first sentence shows that this isn't a discussion for you. You cite yourself as an authority and your your circumstances as universal. Oh, and you didn't consider anything I wrote. Stay well!


So having an opinion based on personal circumstances disqualifies me from expressing an opinion? how can I be citing myself as an authority? I am just saying something that makes sense, why are we not applying common sense to all of this. That's what I ask. I am not running for public office to be an authority nor I plan to. Just a law abiding citizen that doesn't understand what's the direction of everything going on.

You did not say what different conclusions can arise, since that's what you stated, its up to you to actually come up with a counter argument other than saying that one could endure long term injuries as a consequence of COVID. So I would have hoped you did say something.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:15 pm

casinterest wrote:
Georgia will be an interesting test of the opening. We will see how it goes in a week or two.


Yes, its going to be a terrible disappointment to many in the MSM and those who wish to keep the lockdowns, when they see that nothing changed, that's what all of us should hope for, if we truly care about peoples lives and such as we have all been saying in these forums. I am afraid they will have the same sort of disappointment of those that were expecting hospitals in the US not able to cope with COVID.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11587
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:28 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Georgia will be an interesting test of the opening. We will see how it goes in a week or two.


Yes, its going to be a terrible disappointment to many in the MSM and those who wish to keep the lockdowns, when they see that nothing changed, that's what all of us should hope for, if we truly care about peoples lives and such as we have all been saying in these forums. I am afraid they will have the same sort of disappointment of those that were expecting hospitals in the US not able to cope with COVID.


Hate to break it to you and your friends, there is a reason why it is the mainstream. It isn't populated by self important selfish deadbeats. Everyone that is doing social distancing is doing it for the benefit of those that are susceptible to Covid-19. Vaccines are currently in the testing phase and the longer we can hold out, the better the results will be for those that don't get a mild case, and in the meantime, the less busy the doctors and nurses are, the better the outcomes for those that do fall seriously ill.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1301
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:57 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Georgia will be an interesting test of the opening. We will see how it goes in a week or two.


Yes, its going to be a terrible disappointment to many in the MSM and those who wish to keep the lockdowns, when they see that nothing changed, that's what all of us should hope for, if we truly care about peoples lives and such as we have all been saying in these forums. I am afraid they will have the same sort of disappointment of those that were expecting hospitals in the US not able to cope with COVID.


You seem to think that this is over.
This doesn't match reality as numbers in the US are going up and up and up.

This week,Trump estimated that at the end of the crisis the final toll would be around 65.000 total deaths.

Personally, I think that he forgot a zero because to me it looks like the US might hit 65.000 deaths as soon as the end of next week.
With testing to be ramped up, we might see a more realistic picture of what is going on.

It's probable that real death figures are already in the six figures.
In any case, I predict that official figures are going to climb and the US is going to have over 100.000 deaths before the end of May.


It's one thing to get the numbers out of an exponential phase, as long as people are going out of their houses to do seemingly unnecessary things, you can't stop new infections, and if you don't stop new infections, you don't stop deaths.


In Japan, people are dropping dead at home or in the streets on their way to the hospital, just as I predicted a while ago.
Hospitals are overflowing and patients with mild symptoms are being put in hotels.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/202004 ... 41000.html


Small businesses don't want to reopen.
3 trillion USD in bailouts were signed into law so far in little over a month.
That's enough for 10.000 USD per person or over 30.000 USD per household.

So remind me, why do you need to reopen America just weeks later?
Is the money not trickling down?

We could be weeks away from riots and plundering.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Concierge
Posts: 105
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:18 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:14 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Concierge wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

What different conclusions can arise from this? Truth of the matter is, which I have been saying for weeks or more than a month, makes no sense keeping the population that is not at risk of dying and having others dying from COVID be kept locked-down. We can socially distance, have our precautions and keep on with life. The vulnerable population should just stay home and not get into contact with others.

This is common sense. We all, I agree, all were afraid at the beginning, but in reality if the chances are I get flu-like symptoms, I am all for it, and according to my age, I am not even 40 yet and have great health, in my home no one would experience any sort of health complications. We have learned to live with risks, how can we not learn how to live with COVID after many many years or great technological advance, we are resorting ourselves to cave-men era levels of caution. Doesn't make sense. We individuals can learn how to do millions of difficult things, yet according to the governments we don't know how to do just one. Doesn't make sense.


Your first sentence shows that this isn't a discussion for you. You cite yourself as an authority and your your circumstances as universal. Oh, and you didn't consider anything I wrote. Stay well!


So having an opinion based on personal circumstances disqualifies me from expressing an opinion? how can I be citing myself as an authority? I am just saying something that makes sense, why are we not applying common sense to all of this. That's what I ask. I am not running for public office to be an authority nor I plan to. Just a law abiding citizen that doesn't understand what's the direction of everything going on.

You did not say what different conclusions can arise, since that's what you stated, its up to you to actually come up with a counter argument other than saying that one could endure long term injuries as a consequence of COVID. So I would have hoped you did say something.


You did not read my post. I was specific in my disagreements. I also conceded that it was a reasonable argument.

Who said your opinions were disqualified? Fact is, you discount any opposing viewpoint - saying common sense is on your side and no one else's.

Your experience is interesting, but not fact. Your circumstances don't apply to all.

Your mind is made up and you brook no disagreement with your conclusions.

Stay well!
 
Chemist
Posts: 750
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:46 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:38 pm

casinterest wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Well today was an argument against opening up the economies again

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

103,000 + new cases. Highest yet world wide.
37,000+ in the USA Highest yet in the USA.


This is nothing but propaganda. Just because many more now have access to testing it doesn't mean the rate is increasing.


Nothing but propaganda? and you base that on what? Your lack of perspective?


I don't know why my post was deleted, somebody tell me what this violates.
Latest data has US, with 4.3% of the world population, reporting 25% of COVID-19 deaths.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8510
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:45 pm

Chemist wrote:
casinterest wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

This is nothing but propaganda. Just because many more now have access to testing it doesn't mean the rate is increasing.


Nothing but propaganda? and you base that on what? Your lack of perspective?


I don't know why my post was deleted, somebody tell me what this violates.
Latest data has US, with 4.3% of the world population, reporting 25% of COVID-19 deaths.


Europe has half of all COVID-19 deaths and much less than half the world population.

Let’s leave cheap shots out of this thread. This thing is quite complex.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6233
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:46 pm

Concierge wrote:
A good read from a truthful and qualified source is still deserving of scrutiny.

Qualified? He's radiologist. Would you want a qualified advice from a guy that does paint jobs on cars on how to fix your transmission?
The crisis management team over here has a freaking dentist as a member. A notorious attention whore on top of that. I kid you not.
 
Concierge
Posts: 105
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:18 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:59 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
Concierge wrote:
A good read from a truthful and qualified source is still deserving of scrutiny.

Qualified? He's radiologist. Would you want a qualified advice from a guy that does paint jobs on cars on how to fix your transmission?
The crisis management team over here has a freaking dentist as a member. A notorious attention whore on top of that. I kid you not.


Radiologist s deal with every system of the human body. The scope of their expertise is broad. Now, a dermatologist...
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18179
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:20 pm

winginit wrote:
seahawk wrote:
The suicides caused by the high unemployment of a global economic crash will kill more than the virus ever could. Get back to work!


Again, Kemp has moved to get people back to work in Georgia, and the President, who he is an ardent supporter of, wrecked him for it (again today!)

So who is right? State your claim.

The most galling thing is a clear push for testing and contract tracing would a) get the disease under control and b) allow businesses to open back up, but no, we can't have any kind of clear direction at the federal level. We need to look into injecting disinfectant and shining UV lights up our butts. :roll:

TTailedTiger wrote:
winginit wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

This is nothing but propaganda. Just because many more now have access to testing it doesn't mean the rate is increasing.


Ah of course, because if there are no statistics that back your view, just say all of the other statistics are bogus!

PPVRA wrote:

That’s not a reliable source, winginit. There are numerous problems with statistics at the moment and they’ve all been discussed here.

I’m not agreeing with you nor with the previous poster. But you cannot rely solely on those numbers right now because nobody can. Even the CDC and John Hopkins don’t have all the numbers necessary right now.


It is the most reliable source of information that we have at present and should be treated as such - unless you're hiding some spot on stats up your sleeve? Statistics are rarely perfect, so as always, you draw conclusions from what you have.


It's really breathtaking that some people seem to relish the thought of infections and deaths increasing while sending the economy even further down the tubes. It's really disgusting.

Wait...wuh? What do you think happens to "infections and deaths" if the economy was opened up? It's truly remarkable the right is so gonzo that they think the economy would just spool right up as people go back to work in spite of a fairly solid chance they'd contract a deadly disease. "What have you got to lose?"
I don't take responsibility at all
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:56 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Georgia will be an interesting test of the opening. We will see how it goes in a week or two.


Yes, its going to be a terrible disappointment to many in the MSM and those who wish to keep the lockdowns, when they see that nothing changed, that's what all of us should hope for, if we truly care about peoples lives and such as we have all been saying in these forums. I am afraid they will have the same sort of disappointment of those that were expecting hospitals in the US not able to cope with COVID.


Hate to break it to you and your friends, there is a reason why it is the mainstream. It isn't populated by self important selfish deadbeats. Everyone that is doing social distancing is doing it for the benefit of those that are susceptible to Covid-19. Vaccines are currently in the testing phase and the longer we can hold out, the better the results will be for those that don't get a mild case, and in the meantime, the less busy the doctors and nurses are, the better the outcomes for those that do fall seriously ill.


You bash Georgia, because the MSM is doing too, because Georgia's Republican governor is lifting some restrictions, yet the MSM is omitting saying that the Democrat governor from Colorado is also lifting restrictions starting Monday.

And you are really expecting us to hold lock-down out till a vaccine? I understand why you don't mind having us wait, because your job is essential and you don't have to sacrifice your livelihood from this.


Waterbomber2 wrote:

We could be weeks away from riots and plundering.


Again, here you are, weeks ago told me the same thing that by now, the US would have been in utter chaos because of our 'lax' measures, you said that in weeks it will happen, and did not happen. That police, doctors etc would leave their posts, and we would be in an apocalyptic state. Thankfully your prophesies did not see the light of day. Yet you are still telling me that.

There are riots alright, in France. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html


Concierge wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Concierge wrote:

Your first sentence shows that this isn't a discussion for you. You cite yourself as an authority and your your circumstances as universal. Oh, and you didn't consider anything I wrote. Stay well!


So having an opinion based on personal circumstances disqualifies me from expressing an opinion? how can I be citing myself as an authority? I am just saying something that makes sense, why are we not applying common sense to all of this. That's what I ask. I am not running for public office to be an authority nor I plan to. Just a law abiding citizen that doesn't understand what's the direction of everything going on.

You did not say what different conclusions can arise, since that's what you stated, its up to you to actually come up with a counter argument other than saying that one could endure long term injuries as a consequence of COVID. So I would have hoped you did say something.


You did not read my post. I was specific in my disagreements. I also conceded that it was a reasonable argument.

Who said your opinions were disqualified? Fact is, you discount any opposing viewpoint - saying common sense is on your side and no one else's.

Your experience is interesting, but not fact. Your circumstances don't apply to all.

Your mind is made up and you brook no disagreement with your conclusions.

Stay well!



My mind is not made up, we have more than a month on this, I haven't taken this lightly. I am not discounting any opposing views, I just can't understand many things we have done, that's all.

As for circumstances, I must say my financial situation is not bad, and thankfully I am not hurting financially because of this, but I can't stop but feeling bad for those Non-COVID victims which are in the tens of millions, people without a job, without food, and they have kids and they are hurting.

I can't see how we can justify their situation if the reality of COVID is not as bad as we had expected.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
winginit
Posts: 2879
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:05 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
You bash Georgia, because the MSM is doing too


Uh... the Republican President of the United States is ruthlessly bashing the Governor of Georgia for his actions. You left that part out.
 
Concierge
Posts: 105
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:18 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:06 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Yes, its going to be a terrible disappointment to many in the MSM and those who wish to keep the lockdowns, when they see that nothing changed, that's what all of us should hope for, if we truly care about peoples lives and such as we have all been saying in these forums. I am afraid they will have the same sort of disappointment of those that were expecting hospitals in the US not able to cope with COVID.


Hate to break it to you and your friends, there is a reason why it is the mainstream. It isn't populated by self important selfish deadbeats. Everyone that is doing social distancing is doing it for the benefit of those that are susceptible to Covid-19. Vaccines are currently in the testing phase and the longer we can hold out, the better the results will be for those that don't get a mild case, and in the meantime, the less busy the doctors and nurses are, the better the outcomes for those that do fall seriously ill.


You bash Georgia, because the MSM is doing too, because Georgia's Republican governor is lifting some restrictions, yet the MSM is omitting saying that the Democrat governor from Colorado is also lifting restrictions starting Monday.

And you are really expecting us to hold lock-down out till a vaccine? I understand why you don't mind having us wait, because your job is essential and you don't have to sacrifice your livelihood from this.


Waterbomber2 wrote:

We could be weeks away from riots and plundering.


Again, here you are, weeks ago told me the same thing that by now, the US would have been in utter chaos because of our 'lax' measures, you said that in weeks it will happen, and did not happen. That police, doctors etc would leave their posts, and we would be in an apocalyptic state. Thankfully your prophesies did not see the light of day. Yet you are still telling me that.

There are riots alright, in France. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html


Concierge wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

So having an opinion based on personal circumstances disqualifies me from expressing an opinion? how can I be citing myself as an authority? I am just saying something that makes sense, why are we not applying common sense to all of this. That's what I ask. I am not running for public office to be an authority nor I plan to. Just a law abiding citizen that doesn't understand what's the direction of everything going on.

You did not say what different conclusions can arise, since that's what you stated, its up to you to actually come up with a counter argument other than saying that one could endure long term injuries as a consequence of COVID. So I would have hoped you did say something.


You did not read my post. I was specific in my disagreements. I also conceded that it was a reasonable argument.

Who said your opinions were disqualified? Fact is, you discount any opposing viewpoint - saying common sense is on your side and no one else's.

Your experience is interesting, but not fact. Your circumstances don't apply to all.

Your mind is made up and you brook no disagreement with your conclusions.

Stay well!



My mind is not made up, we have more than a month on this, I haven't taken this lightly. I am not discounting any opposing views, I just can't understand many things we have done, that's all.

As for circumstances, I must say my financial situation is not bad, and thankfully I am not hurting financially because of this, but I can't stop but feeling bad for those Non-COVID victims which are in the tens of millions, people without a job, without food, and they have kids and they are hurting.

I can't see how we can justify their situation if the reality of COVID is not as bad as we had expected.


Fair enough. Going in, expectations were all over the place, so the benchmarks have been less than clear, so better or worse isn't all that clear to me. Stay well.
 
MoonC
Posts: 338
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 1:26 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:13 pm

Bill Gates was right...we were not ready for this pandemic. We will certainly not be ready for the next one either. Maybe something as deadly as Ebola with the transmisibility of Covid-19 would surely shake people to their senses...maybe. Because drowning in your own lung fluids doesn't sound nearly as bad to some people as your organs spilling out their insides.
 
Jalap
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:44 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
And you are really expecting us to hold lock-down out till a vaccine?

There isn't a single place in the world where this is the plan. And there is nobody who thinks this is a reasonable idea.

The whole point of a lockdown is to gain control over the virus. It is clear, worldwide, that a lockdown works.
Then, the lockdown needs to be continued till the virus is sparse enough to truely be controlled.
At that point, measures can be loosened. Typically, it takes 8 to 10 weeks to achieve this.
Loosening of measures should be done very gradually. Go too fast, and you'll lose control again.
The less virus there is left in teh country, the more loose the measures can become.
The more disciplined a population is, the faster measures can be loosened.

After a few months, you'll have most of the freedoms you had earlier. Except for mass events. If in that stage people still are disciplined enough to do what it takes to not spread the virus, this lifestyle will continue till there is a vaccine or a very effective treatment/medicine.

It all boils down to being in control of the virus. Which is perfectly possible.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 12347
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:13 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
My mind is not made up, we have more than a month on this, I haven't taken this lightly. I am not discounting any opposing views, I just can't understand many things we have done, that's all.

I can't see how we can justify their situation if the reality of COVID is not as bad as we had expected.


You have decided the long-established protocols being recommended by professionals are wrong because they don’t fit your ‘common sense’, even though you admit you can’t understand why things have been done a certain way. Not understanding something is a deficit of knowledge, not an ‘I’m automatically correct’ card. That’s a kind of arrogance.

And we don’t have the full picture of ‘how bad it is’ yet because the different strains and penetration of the virus are still being furiously investigated. What we do know is there is scientific consensus testing and tracing is a key to more nuanced quarantine and control of risk groups. Get our ducks in a row there, and we can stop locking everyone down. Time is of the essence, so you should be calling your Congressional reps every day beating the testing drum if you really care about what people are going through. The lack of organization and coordination from the top is making this happen too slowly.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Jalap
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:16 pm

casinterest wrote:
Georgia will be an interesting test of the opening. We will see how it goes in a week or two.

I doubt it'll be very clear in a week or 2. I assume most of the population is sensible enough to avoid places where they can get infected.
Those that aren't sensible enough will make numbers rise, but not quickly and dramatically.
Don't know what the reproduction rate of the virus is in Georgia right now. But it'll grow a bit, that's for sure.
So slowly and gradually, number of infections will rise. It's a gamble. If reproduction rate gets too high, Georgia will be in trouble. If they still remain lower than what health care can cope with, then Georgia was right. It will boil down to the reproduction rate. And it may take months to know for sure.
Yet it remains a gamble, winning will cost many lives, losing will cost many more.
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 18179
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:51 pm

winginit wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
You bash Georgia, because the MSM is doing too


Uh... the Republican President of the United States is ruthlessly bashing the Governor of Georgia for his actions. You left that part out.

Trump: Liberate the states!
Georgia: We're liberatin'!
Trump: Not like that. I do not support Georgia.

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
My mind is not made up, we have more than a month on this, I haven't taken this lightly. I am not discounting any opposing views, I just can't understand many things we have done, that's all.

I can't see how we can justify their situation if the reality of COVID is not as bad as we had expected.


You have decided the long-established protocols being recommended by professionals are wrong because they don’t fit your ‘common sense’, even though you admit you can’t understand why things have been done a certain way. Not understanding something is a deficit of knowledge, not an ‘I’m automatically correct’ card. That’s a kind of arrogance.

AirWorthy99 and republians will never have an alternative plan because there is none. We've had dozens of hours with dementia Don unraveling live before our eyes and we still have no idea What. Is. The. Republican. Plan?

Besides injecting disinfectant :rotfl:
Last edited by MaverickM11 on Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:01 am, edited 2 times in total.
I don't take responsibility at all
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 6233
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:57 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Truth of the matter is, which I have been saying for weeks or more than a month, makes no sense keeping the population that is not at risk of dying and having others dying from COVID be kept locked-down. We can socially distance, have our precautions and keep on with life. The vulnerable population should just stay home and not get into contact with others.


Reality has shown, ask Boris Johnson, that you simply can't isolate a certain age group of the population, especially not those who rely And require assistance from the rest of the society.
Being less ignorant and self-centered, pretending you will not be 70 or 80 one day and will expect not to be treated like nuisance would be a great step forward.
 
FTMCPIUS
Posts: 359
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:10 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:58 am

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Georgia will be an interesting test of the opening. We will see how it goes in a week or two.


Yes, its going to be a terrible disappointment to many in the MSM and those who wish to keep the lockdowns, when they see that nothing changed, that's what all of us should hope for, if we truly care about peoples lives and such as we have all been saying in these forums. I am afraid they will have the same sort of disappointment of those that were expecting hospitals in the US not able to cope with COVID.


Hate to break it to you and your friends, there is a reason why it is the mainstream. It isn't populated by self important selfish deadbeats. Everyone that is doing social distancing is doing it for the benefit of those that are susceptible to Covid-19. Vaccines are currently in the testing phase and the longer we can hold out, the better the results will be for those that don't get a mild case, and in the meantime, the less busy the doctors and nurses are, the better the outcomes for those that do fall seriously ill.

So, I take it that you are a farmer with a windmill-powered generator or solar panels.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2524
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:30 am

It's heartbreaking to hear the stories of people who weren't allowed to say goodbye to their dying family and friends that didn't even have the coronavirus. Anyone who stood in their way should be ashamed of themselves and are subhuman garbage.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 5371
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:07 am

Jalap wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
And you are really expecting us to hold lock-down out till a vaccine?

There isn't a single place in the world where this is the plan. And there is nobody who thinks this is a reasonable idea.

The whole point of a lockdown is to gain control over the virus. It is clear, worldwide, that a lockdown works.
Then, the lockdown needs to be continued till the virus is sparse enough to truely be controlled.
At that point, measures can be loosened. Typically, it takes 8 to 10 weeks to achieve this.
Loosening of measures should be done very gradually. Go too fast, and you'll lose control again.
The less virus there is left in teh country, the more loose the measures can become.
The more disciplined a population is, the faster measures can be loosened.

After a few months, you'll have most of the freedoms you had earlier. Except for mass events. If in that stage people still are disciplined enough to do what it takes to not spread the virus, this lifestyle will continue till there is a vaccine or a very effective treatment/medicine.

It all boils down to being in control of the virus. Which is perfectly possible.


I agree on principle, but disagree with the timeline. In most places where there has been a long term lockdown, while the measures have worked in plateauing then reducing the number of casualties, the decrease in number of new cases and deaths is now very slow. So slow that it would take many more months of lockdown to hope to make the virus 'sparse enough' as you say.
In Italy, there are still thousands of new cases and hundreds of deaths everyday, and at the rate that toll is going down, it might take at least double or triple the current lockdown to bring it to levels where it can be 'contained'.

The sad fact is, Europe and the USA were much too late in reacting to the virus and only started noticing it when it had taken a firm grasp within their borders. Lockdown does help in softening the inital blow, but it gets to a stage where the disease has reached a critical mass above which it will just keep on spreading.
If you could tell everyone with certainty that 8 to 10 weeks of lockdown would be enough to then go back to a semblance of normal, I'm sure most people would cooperate. In fact most do now. The problem is when you put everybody home for a few weeks and then keep extending the deadline seemingly indefinitely to the point where everybody loses hope that there will ever be and end to it or where they simply lose faith. Then people get tired, stop cooperating and the whole thing gets worse.
Extended lockdown, while great on paper, seem to completely ignore their effect on the population's mental health, not to mention the disastrous economic effects.

The hardest hit countries in Europe and now starting to loosen the restrictions, and yet the virus there is far from being anywhere under control. In fact, despite close to 2 months of strict lockdown, the death rates in Italy and Spain are still higher than in the US, per capita. They've simply reached the point where they either feel the lockdown is becoming counterproductive in terms of its side effects or where they think they risk losing the population's will to keep fighting this thing. Either way, there is absolutely no way that extending the lockdown as it stands there for another month or two would not have severe consequences, and even that wouldn't guarantee bringing the infection rate to a point where it could be eradicated.

That's the problem I have with the proponents of lockdowns at all costs. There is no realistic timeline, no proper weighing of their deleterious effects vs. their benefits, and they offer no guarantee to the population which ensures that they quickly turn against the idea.
Lockdowns were useful in stunting the initial exponential growth of the infection curve. They are not a viable long term solution in the real World where the current level of infection is as prevalent as in the West. (I agree that they worked well in countries where they were applied much sooner, such as Australia or NZ).
The disease will keep progressing no matter what until a medical solution is found to counter it. It is time to find ways to slow it down while letting people live a semblant of normal life.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:35 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
It's heartbreaking to hear the stories of people who weren't allowed to say goodbye to their dying family and friends that didn't even have the coronavirus. Anyone who stood in their way should be ashamed of themselves and are subhuman garbage.


Yet you don’t retract your bizarre statement about CA after myself and others living here attested to the actual conditions on the previous thread page. Interesting.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:49 am

Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
It's heartbreaking to hear the stories of people who weren't allowed to say goodbye to their dying family and friends that didn't even have the coronavirus. Anyone who stood in their way should be ashamed of themselves and are subhuman garbage.


Yet you don’t retract your bizarre statement about CA after myself and others living here attested to the actual conditions on the previous thread page. Interesting.


I didn't because you were wrong. Read the articles. People had come there from neighboring counties where the beaches were closed. Their mayors threw a fit over it.

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