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Francoflier
Posts: 5371
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:52 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Some common sense based on facts not flawed models from a Doctor from Stanford university:

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.

Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19....... (expands on the link)

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding....

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.....

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections....

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures....

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation


Common sense in these times of panic and misinformation. I hope these over the top measures are reduced to common sense measures soon.


:checkmark:

While this is an extraordinary disease causing a lot of deaths, it seems to me that its effect has been largely amplified by the constant media tapage. This has made it hard for people to take a step back and consider the reality of the situation. There has been an incredible level of overreaction (although some of it was warranted as some nations were much too late in taking measures).

And the reality is that we are fighting a new virus which, while highly survivable, is causing a spike in the death rate among the most fragile of us. While it is regrettable, it is now a fact of life that we have to live with. And when I say 'live with' I mean that we need to learn to live our lives as normally as possible until it passes or a vaccine/cure is found, while using appropriate attenuating measures.
The damage done to our society is enormous. Yet even if the amount of deaths was 10 times higher than currently, it would pale in comparison to other catastrophes the World has gone through of late, such as wars and famines, during which barely anyone in the developed World bat an eyelid. But hey, poor people, right?

We may have to learn to not get scared out of our minds every time a new threat appears among our societies. We are a very emotional species, but there is always an inherent risk to living, which we seem to either forget or accept in many other cases.
There are hundreds of millions of people living in polluted cities and regions around the World even though we know polluted air causes around 7 million deaths a year. There are millions of people living near fault lines and volcanoes menacing to destroy their entire cities at anytime, yet in full knowledge of this fact (looking at you, SF :wink2: ...).

Yes, I am aware that I might die if I catch it. I might also be diagnosed with terminal cancer tomorrow or be run over by a bus as I cross the street playing candy crush... The multitude of threats around us has never stopped us from living our lives. If we were as keenly aware of every single of those threats as we are constantly being made aware of this one, we'd never leave home.
There are ways to minimize the effects of this disease without locking everybody home and cowering in fear.

We can protect the fragile by isolating them from the disease. The complete lack of measures taken to protect the elderly, especially in care homes, has honestly verged on criminal negligence.
As soon as the threat was known (and it has been since before it started wildly spreading outside of China), those who care for the elderly should have taken strict measures to protect their clients: stopping relatives from visiting, checking every employee for symptoms, minimizing contact, using protective equipment and increasing cleaning/disinfecting schedules. This care home tragedy should have never happened.
The rest of us can follow simple rules to prevent spreading the virus to others as much as possible. Hoping to achieve a null transmission rate at this stage is utopic, even with a crippling lockdown.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
winginit
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:18 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
It's heartbreaking to hear the stories of people who weren't allowed to say goodbye to their dying family and friends that didn't even have the coronavirus. Anyone who stood in their way should be ashamed of themselves and are subhuman garbage.


Yet you don’t retract your bizarre statement about CA after myself and others living here attested to the actual conditions on the previous thread page. Interesting.


I didn't because you were wrong. Read the articles. People had come there from neighboring counties where the beaches were closed. Their mayors threw a fit over it.


Your ignorance on the topic is genuinely breathtaking. No rules were broken in crossing county lines to go to an open beach. Wise? Probably not. Perfectly legal and not some act of rebellion as you categorized it as? Yes.

Stick to Florida champ.
 
Toenga
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:54 am

Australia and New Zealand, one has a centre right government the other has a centre left government.
Total combined population is just under 30 million people.
Both have adopted a science led approach to control Covid 19, starting with closing their borders to everybody other then their own citizens 20-21st March, their own citizens are required to go into 14 days quarantine. Both went into lockdown over the following 4 days, severly curtailing travel and face to face contact and much business. This lockdown state is continuing, but staged reduction of restrictions is about to take place and if infections continue their rapid decline, these restrictions should take place quite quickly.
At the same time as going into lockdown both countries commenced ramping up testing, and contact tracing capabilities, that have been massively increased over the last month. The minimum standard sought is 80% of all contacts of each new case should be traced inside 3 days.
The results speak for themselves.
Total covid related deaths, in hospitals, care facilities and at home, is just under 100. Yes only 100 people have died so far, although as it has got into some aged facilities on both sides of the Tasman numbers will rise slightly.
Total confirmed cases, is just under 8000.
Total number of currently active cases is under 1700.
Both countries can look forward to resuming much closer to normality in about a month, but without overseas visits or visitors. Both countries now know, that provided the border restrictions are maintained, they have the capabilities to control further outbreaks.
There is though a good chance if both countries achieve near elimination, and maintain equivalent containment strategies that the border will open between our two countries later this year, and perhaps to some Pacific Islands that have remained covid free by rigid border control.
Both countries are dependent on fully vaccinating their populations before borders with the rest of the world can be opened.
Tourism of course is massively impacted, but once lockdown restrictions are eased, both countries will benifit by an increase in domestic tourism as their inveterate traveller residents, are forced to holiday domestically, initially, and then only on both sides of the Tasman Sea for a while. Sure both economies have taken a substantial hit, but what is more damaging, a short sharp period of intense lockdown, or a prolonged period of a softer lockdown? Much of the economic downturn we will experience, will in fact be imported. World tourism is down regardless of any border controls. Discretionary spending worldwide will be suppressed for a while yet. Regardless of any border controls, how many tourists could be attracted to visit New York, or London, right now?
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:58 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
It's heartbreaking to hear the stories of people who weren't allowed to say goodbye to their dying family and friends that didn't even have the coronavirus. Anyone who stood in their way should be ashamed of themselves and are subhuman garbage.


Yet you don’t retract your bizarre statement about CA after myself and others living here attested to the actual conditions on the previous thread page. Interesting.


I didn't because you were wrong. Read the articles. People had come there from neighboring counties where the beaches were closed. Their mayors threw a fit over it.


Good thing there's a post quote for that: It's refreshing to see that even those in California have had enough of the government over-reach.

Your quote above doesn't say anything about counties or mayors - just a generality about overreach in California and uprising against it. Doesn't even provide a source, as usual. Total hogwash - just because beaches are closed in one place, doesn't mean we can't go elsewhere - and nobody is telling us so. The two beaches near San Luis Obispo is closed to keep the college kids off, but there are beaches 20 miles south that run the length of the coast all the way to Vandenberg AFB. I've been down that stretch twice in the last week to beach-walk, and nobody stopped me.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
Jalap
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:42 am

Francoflier wrote:
I agree on principle, but disagree with the timeline. In most places where there has been a long term lockdown, while the measures have worked in plateauing then reducing the number of casualties, the decrease in number of new cases and deaths is now very slow. So slow that it would take many more months of lockdown to hope to make the virus 'sparse enough' as you say.
In Italy, there are still thousands of new cases and hundreds of deaths everyday, and at the rate that toll is going down, it might take at least double or triple the current lockdown to bring it to levels where it can be 'contained'.

It all depends on reproduction rate. If there's a lockdown in a country ad reproduction rate doesn't drop below 1, then something isn't right. Perhaps lockdown measures not tight enough, population not disciplined enough to do it right, ... .

If this is the case in a country, then the optimal timeline is impossible. They won't be able to get in control. And they'll need to accept the virus spreading further and further.

Yet the most interesting question is: why are many countries successful in achieving a low reproduction rate, and why others (seemingly) aren't?
Does anybody has reliable info on reproduction rates?
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:24 am

Jalap wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
I agree on principle, but disagree with the timeline. In most places where there has been a long term lockdown, while the measures have worked in plateauing then reducing the number of casualties, the decrease in number of new cases and deaths is now very slow. So slow that it would take many more months of lockdown to hope to make the virus 'sparse enough' as you say.
In Italy, there are still thousands of new cases and hundreds of deaths everyday, and at the rate that toll is going down, it might take at least double or triple the current lockdown to bring it to levels where it can be 'contained'.

It all depends on reproduction rate. If there's a lockdown in a country ad reproduction rate doesn't drop below 1, then something isn't right. Perhaps lockdown measures not tight enough, population not disciplined enough to do it right, ... .

If this is the case in a country, then the optimal timeline is impossible. They won't be able to get in control. And they'll need to accept the virus spreading further and further.

Yet the most interesting question is: why are many countries successful in achieving a low reproduction rate, and why others (seemingly) aren't?
Does anybody has reliable info on reproduction rates?


Any reliable data will be hard to come by for a while yet.

There does seem to be a correlation between cultural practices and infection rate however. Just look at both sides of the old South vs. North Europe cleavage and despite similar measures on paper, the figures are wildly different.
I am of the opinion that this a matter that is better handled by populations which have a culturally more obedient, or at least disciplined, approach to life in general, at the risk of using a broad brush.
The same can be witnessed in Asia vs. the US for instance.

As for OZ and NZ, which have fared well, they are by definition easier to isolate and took measures before the outbreak became too widely spread, which made them more effective and brought them within reach of eradication, a luxury which a lot of more infected places seem to have lost a while ago.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:00 pm

Jalap wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
And you are really expecting us to hold lock-down out till a vaccine?

There isn't a single place in the world where this is the plan. And there is nobody who thinks this is a reasonable idea.

The whole point of a lockdown is to gain control over the virus. It is clear, worldwide, that a lockdown works.
Then, the lockdown needs to be continued till the virus is sparse enough to truely be controlled.
At that point, measures can be loosened. Typically, it takes 8 to 10 weeks to achieve this.
Loosening of measures should be done very gradually. Go too fast, and you'll lose control again.
The less virus there is left in teh country, the more loose the measures can become.
The more disciplined a population is, the faster measures can be loosened.

After a few months, you'll have most of the freedoms you had earlier. Except for mass events. If in that stage people still are disciplined enough to do what it takes to not spread the virus, this lifestyle will continue till there is a vaccine or a very effective treatment/medicine.

It all boils down to being in control of the virus. Which is perfectly possible.


You can't be fully in control of a virus that according to some almost 50% who get it are completely asymptomatic, this is going to go on for a long time. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... have-virus

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
My mind is not made up, we have more than a month on this, I haven't taken this lightly. I am not discounting any opposing views, I just can't understand many things we have done, that's all.

I can't see how we can justify their situation if the reality of COVID is not as bad as we had expected.


You have decided the long-established protocols being recommended by professionals are wrong because they don’t fit your ‘common sense’, even though you admit you can’t understand why things have been done a certain way. Not understanding something is a deficit of knowledge, not an ‘I’m automatically correct’ card. That’s a kind of arrogance.

And we don’t have the full picture of ‘how bad it is’ yet because the different strains and penetration of the virus are still being furiously investigated. What we do know is there is scientific consensus testing and tracing is a key to more nuanced quarantine and control of risk groups. Get our ducks in a row there, and we can stop locking everyone down. Time is of the essence, so you should be calling your Congressional reps every day beating the testing drum if you really care about what people are going through. The lack of organization and coordination from the top is making this happen too slowly.


Arrogance is to submit 100% of the population to strict and restrictive measures when in reality only a small fraction of the population is truly affected.

Common sense and as you have told me for months, is to guide us based on real scientific evidence, not on suppositions and projections that since the start have been flawed. Now that the data is out for us to see, I think we all can agree that common sense should be what decides policy.

L410Turbolet wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Truth of the matter is, which I have been saying for weeks or more than a month, makes no sense keeping the population that is not at risk of dying and having others dying from COVID be kept locked-down. We can socially distance, have our precautions and keep on with life. The vulnerable population should just stay home and not get into contact with others.


Reality has shown, ask Boris Johnson, that you simply can't isolate a certain age group of the population, especially not those who rely And require assistance from the rest of the society.
Being less ignorant and self-centered, pretending you will not be 70 or 80 one day and will expect not to be treated like nuisance would be a great step forward.


Reality has really showned that we are acting based on feelings, fear... not facts or reality. Of course I will be 70, and I have family who are in the vulnerable group, I care about them, why is it so hard for us to have them stay home all the while we work for them.

All I ask is to allow us to work. Not go to a bar, not to a restaurant, to work. Why should I ask permission the government to allow me back to work? why on earth should I beg you or anyone else who says we shouldn't, permission to work?

You are allowed to stay home if you like, telling me I should stay is arrogance to say the least.


Francoflier wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Some common sense based on facts not flawed models from a Doctor from Stanford university:

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and rely on facts. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.

Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19....... (expands on the link)

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding....

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.....

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections....

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures....

https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/ ... -isolation


Common sense in these times of panic and misinformation. I hope these over the top measures are reduced to common sense measures soon.


:checkmark:

While this is an extraordinary disease causing a lot of deaths, it seems to me that its effect has been largely amplified by the constant media tapage. This has made it hard for people to take a step back and consider the reality of the situation. There has been an incredible level of overreaction (although some of it was warranted as some nations were much too late in taking measures).

And the reality is that we are fighting a new virus which, while highly survivable, is causing a spike in the death rate among the most fragile of us. While it is regrettable, it is now a fact of life that we have to live with. And when I say 'live with' I mean that we need to learn to live our lives as normally as possible until it passes or a vaccine/cure is found, while using appropriate attenuating measures.
The damage done to our society is enormous. Yet even if the amount of deaths was 10 times higher than currently, it would pale in comparison to other catastrophes the World has gone through of late, such as wars and famines, during which barely anyone in the developed World bat an eyelid. But hey, poor people, right?

We may have to learn to not get scared out of our minds every time a new threat appears among our societies. We are a very emotional species, but there is always an inherent risk to living, which we seem to either forget or accept in many other cases.
There are hundreds of millions of people living in polluted cities and regions around the World even though we know polluted air causes around 7 million deaths a year. There are millions of people living near fault lines and volcanoes menacing to destroy their entire cities at anytime, yet in full knowledge of this fact (looking at you, SF :wink2: ...).

Yes, I am aware that I might die if I catch it. I might also be diagnosed with terminal cancer tomorrow or be run over by a bus as I cross the street playing candy crush... The multitude of threats around us has never stopped us from living our lives. If we were as keenly aware of every single of those threats as we are constantly being made aware of this one, we'd never leave home.
There are ways to minimize the effects of this disease without locking everybody home and cowering in fear.

We can protect the fragile by isolating them from the disease. The complete lack of measures taken to protect the elderly, especially in care homes, has honestly verged on criminal negligence.
As soon as the threat was known (and it has been since before it started wildly spreading outside of China), those who care for the elderly should have taken strict measures to protect their clients: stopping relatives from visiting, checking every employee for symptoms, minimizing contact, using protective equipment and increasing cleaning/disinfecting schedules. This care home tragedy should have never happened.
The rest of us can follow simple rules to prevent spreading the virus to others as much as possible. Hoping to achieve a null transmission rate at this stage is utopic, even with a crippling lockdown.


I am glad that despite political differences, some people are using common sense into practice. We all might disagree on most of things, but its great that we put our differences behind and come to terms with reality and common sense.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:01 pm

Andrew Cuomo’s coronavirus nursing home policy proves tragic

https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/cuomo-cor ... c-goodwin/

Here's a letter that probably wasn't posted on Gov. Cuomo's media by his staff:

The letter from Arlene Mullin, was heartbreaking as it recounted the death of an 88-year-old woman in a New York nursing home. But it was also angry and accurate about a strange New York policy that is ­fatally wrongheaded. “I am wondering who will hold Gov. Cuomo accountable for the deaths of so many older people due to his reckless decision to place covid19 patients in nursing and rehabilitation homes,” the letter began. “I am writing as a daughter who lost her beautiful 88 year old mother who was receiving physical therapy at one such facility.”

Mullin had another complaint, too — that the media never asked the governor about an order mandating that nursing homes admit and readmit patients who tested positive for the coronavirus, despite the extraordinary number of deaths among the elderly.
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
Jalap
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:44 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
You can't be fully in control of a virus that according to some almost 50% who get it are completely asymptomatic, this is going to go on for a long time. https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... have-virus

Yes you can. So many countries are in control now, decreasing the amount of virus in their countries.
This, however, done with measures that can’t last for too long.
So can a country remain in control with looser measures?
Many will try. Time will tell.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:05 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZq-8Bq3mkU

A cool video that explains Covid-19 testing to a level even my puny brain can understand.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:43 pm

Jalap wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
And you are really expecting us to hold lock-down out till a vaccine?

There isn't a single place in the world where this is the plan. And there is nobody who thinks this is a reasonable idea.

The whole point of a lockdown is to gain control over the virus. It is clear, worldwide, that a lockdown works.
Then, the lockdown needs to be continued till the virus is sparse enough to truely be controlled.
At that point, measures can be loosened. Typically, it takes 8 to 10 weeks to achieve this.
Loosening of measures should be done very gradually. Go too fast, and you'll lose control again.
The less virus there is left in teh country, the more loose the measures can become.
The more disciplined a population is, the faster measures can be loosened.

After a few months, you'll have most of the freedoms you had earlier. Except for mass events. If in that stage people still are disciplined enough to do what it takes to not spread the virus, this lifestyle will continue till there is a vaccine or a very effective treatment/medicine.

It all boils down to being in control of the virus. Which is perfectly possible.


I think this is pretty much it. Washington state got hit first, but subsequently two California February deaths were just this week diagnosed. So the disease was likely festering in January throughout the country. My county has a huge naval base, 25K people mostly working, and a total county population of 275K. We are showing over the last ten days less than one new case a day, c145 total. Two elderly people dying, one other possible. Compliance with isolating is near universal. Did my weekly shopping at a large store at 6:45 am, just a handful in the store. Easy to maintain distance less than half the workers and shoppers wearing a mask. I am expecting construction to resume sometime in the next two weeks.
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ltbewr
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:13 pm

There are several problem areas with trying to move from the current 'stay home' orders, especially in the USA as to Covid-19.

One area is with infection and antibody testing. We don't have enough tests and items like swabs to do them of either type. We don't have enough capacity in the USA to make the components and processing regent chemicals. Not enough PPE for those collecting and processing the tests. Limited processing facilities. Need for billions in funding to do the tests. Competition to see who gets tested first, from state to state, city to city, areas connected with food processing vs. cities, rich vs. poor, old vs. young, general population vs. nursing homes, health care, essential and first responder workers.

A second area is if one gets immunity to Covid-19 if have been exposed to it. Some questions have been raised so even if had a severe affect from it, you may get it again or pass it along to others.

A third area is the lack of masks, disinfectant chemicals, and ability to use them properly at workplaces and in public.

A fourth area is the need to get people back to work as safely as possible. Social distancing may be difficult at some workplaces and especially going to/from work on public transit in urban areas like NYC. Limiting return of older workers and those with medical issues may violate age discrimination and medical privacy laws.

A fifth area is that distancing requirements at public events, theaters, restaurants, schools and stores may be near impossible or not economically viable.

A sixth area is if 'give an inch' people will 'take a mile' as many individuals and businesses will stretch the limits of rules, defeating intent, infections rise up and a new cycle of lockdowns.

A seventh area is political pressures from individuals and businesses to reopen, get people back to work ASAP. Some who are broke and need their jobs or revenues from businesses for survival may be willing to accept a higher chance of being hospitalized or die, large numbers of deaths, even in the 100's of 1000's usually of 'old', 'sick', no the 'same as them' by race, ethnicity, legal status out of survival, There is also the issues of the massive debts created by governments which many know will mean much higher taxes to payoff and a many not willing to pay more.

This virus continues to be a difficult medical vs. economic conflict, making worse the political and economic divide in the USA and elsewhere.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:16 am

ltbewr wrote:
There are several problem areas with trying to move from the current 'stay home' orders, especially in the USA as to Covid-19.

One area is with infection and antibody testing. We don't have enough tests and items like swabs to do them of either type. We don't have enough capacity in the USA to make the components and processing regent chemicals. Not enough PPE for those collecting and processing the tests. Limited processing facilities. Need for billions in funding to do the tests. Competition to see who gets tested first, from state to state, city to city, areas connected with food processing vs. cities, rich vs. poor, old vs. young, general population vs. nursing homes, health care, essential and first responder workers.

A second area is if one gets immunity to Covid-19 if have been exposed to it. Some questions have been raised so even if had a severe affect from it, you may get it again or pass it along to others.

A third area is the lack of masks, disinfectant chemicals, and ability to use them properly at workplaces and in public.

A fourth area is the need to get people back to work as safely as possible. Social distancing may be difficult at some workplaces and especially going to/from work on public transit in urban areas like NYC. Limiting return of older workers and those with medical issues may violate age discrimination and medical privacy laws.

A fifth area is that distancing requirements at public events, theaters, restaurants, schools and stores may be near impossible or not economically viable.

A sixth area is if 'give an inch' people will 'take a mile' as many individuals and businesses will stretch the limits of rules, defeating intent, infections rise up and a new cycle of lockdowns.

A seventh area is political pressures from individuals and businesses to reopen, get people back to work ASAP. Some who are broke and need their jobs or revenues from businesses for survival may be willing to accept a higher chance of being hospitalized or die, large numbers of deaths, even in the 100's of 1000's usually of 'old', 'sick', no the 'same as them' by race, ethnicity, legal status out of survival, There is also the issues of the massive debts created by governments which many know will mean much higher taxes to payoff and a many not willing to pay more.

This virus continues to be a difficult medical vs. economic conflict, making worse the political and economic divide in the USA and elsewhere.


A focused, organized and coordinated effort to vastly expand testing infrastructure requires sustained leadership and effort from the executive branch. 45 thinks because millions of tests have already been done, that’s ‘a great job’. No - we need capacity for tens of millions more. Hard to see competent management coming from somewhere the boss is throwing toys out of the cot over bad press about his work habits.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:29 am

This is how stupid it getting in Cali—releasing prisoners and arresting people socially distant on the beach. Really dumb.

https://twitter.com/cbs8/status/1254126 ... 05796?s=21
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:30 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Yes, its going to be a terrible disappointment to many in the MSM and those who wish to keep the lockdowns, when they see that nothing changed, that's what all of us should hope for, if we truly care about peoples lives and such as we have all been saying in these forums. I am afraid they will have the same sort of disappointment of those that were expecting hospitals in the US not able to cope with COVID.


Hate to break it to you and your friends, there is a reason why it is the mainstream. It isn't populated by self important selfish deadbeats. Everyone that is doing social distancing is doing it for the benefit of those that are susceptible to Covid-19. Vaccines are currently in the testing phase and the longer we can hold out, the better the results will be for those that don't get a mild case, and in the meantime, the less busy the doctors and nurses are, the better the outcomes for those that do fall seriously ill.


You bash Georgia, because the MSM is doing too, because Georgia's Republican governor is lifting some restrictions, yet the MSM is omitting saying that the Democrat governor from Colorado is also lifting restrictions starting Monday.

And you are really expecting us to hold lock-down out till a vaccine? I understand why you don't mind having us wait, because your job is essential and you don't have to sacrifice your livelihood from this.


Waterbomber2 wrote:

We could be weeks away from riots and plundering.


Again, here you are, weeks ago told me the same thing that by now, the US would have been in utter chaos because of our 'lax' measures, you said that in weeks it will happen, and did not happen. That police, doctors etc would leave their posts, and we would be in an apocalyptic state. Thankfully your prophesies did not see the light of day. Yet you are still telling me that.

There are riots alright, in France. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html


Concierge wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

So having an opinion based on personal circumstances disqualifies me from expressing an opinion? how can I be citing myself as an authority? I am just saying something that makes sense, why are we not applying common sense to all of this. That's what I ask. I am not running for public office to be an authority nor I plan to. Just a law abiding citizen that doesn't understand what's the direction of everything going on.

You did not say what different conclusions can arise, since that's what you stated, its up to you to actually come up with a counter argument other than saying that one could endure long term injuries as a consequence of COVID. So I would have hoped you did say something.


You did not read my post. I was specific in my disagreements. I also conceded that it was a reasonable argument.

Who said your opinions were disqualified? Fact is, you discount any opposing viewpoint - saying common sense is on your side and no one else's.

Your experience is interesting, but not fact. Your circumstances don't apply to all.

Your mind is made up and you brook no disagreement with your conclusions.

Stay well!



My mind is not made up, we have more than a month on this, I haven't taken this lightly. I am not discounting any opposing views, I just can't understand many things we have done, that's all.

As for circumstances, I must say my financial situation is not bad, and thankfully I am not hurting financially because of this, but I can't stop but feeling bad for those Non-COVID victims which are in the tens of millions, people without a job, without food, and they have kids and they are hurting.

I can't see how we can justify their situation if the reality of COVID is not as bad as we had expected.



How am I bashing Georgia? Seriously? Is this another of your drug induced delusions?

Also when did I say we hold out till a vaccine? I just said we need to hold on as long as we can? For someone so bad at Math you are really good at taking something to the maximum degree,
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:31 am

Jalap wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Georgia will be an interesting test of the opening. We will see how it goes in a week or two.

I doubt it'll be very clear in a week or 2. I assume most of the population is sensible enough to avoid places where they can get infected.
Those that aren't sensible enough will make numbers rise, but not quickly and dramatically.
Don't know what the reproduction rate of the virus is in Georgia right now. But it'll grow a bit, that's for sure.
So slowly and gradually, number of infections will rise. It's a gamble. If reproduction rate gets too high, Georgia will be in trouble. If they still remain lower than what health care can cope with, then Georgia was right. It will boil down to the reproduction rate. And it may take months to know for sure.
Yet it remains a gamble, winning will cost many lives, losing will cost many more.



I will grow, but after a week or two things will be clearer on at least one front. Will people roll back into the economy startup or remain personally conscientious of what is going on?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:32 am

FTMCPIUS wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Yes, its going to be a terrible disappointment to many in the MSM and those who wish to keep the lockdowns, when they see that nothing changed, that's what all of us should hope for, if we truly care about peoples lives and such as we have all been saying in these forums. I am afraid they will have the same sort of disappointment of those that were expecting hospitals in the US not able to cope with COVID.


Hate to break it to you and your friends, there is a reason why it is the mainstream. It isn't populated by self important selfish deadbeats. Everyone that is doing social distancing is doing it for the benefit of those that are susceptible to Covid-19. Vaccines are currently in the testing phase and the longer we can hold out, the better the results will be for those that don't get a mild case, and in the meantime, the less busy the doctors and nurses are, the better the outcomes for those that do fall seriously ill.

So, I take it that you are a farmer with a windmill-powered generator or solar panels.


Where did I ever say that ? If I was a farmer with solar panels, I could give a damn less about whether a bunch of idiots wanted to inject themselves with Lysol and listen to a lying cheating coward like Trump.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:36 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
This is how stupid it getting in Cali—releasing prisoners and arresting people socially distant on the beach. Really dumb.

https://twitter.com/cbs8/status/1254126 ... 05796?s=21


Releasing prisoners is retarded and many of us have called the state lege to express displeasure. But no sympathy for anyone violating city/county orders on closed beaches - there are many others that are open. In my area there are a handful closed and at least 10 more open.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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mad99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:15 am

Yesterday was the first time in 42 days that the kids could leave the house. We were out for an hour and could not be more then 1km away from our house. Felt strange being out and about! Today we’ll go out later in the afternoon, baby steps.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:59 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
This is how stupid it getting in Cali—releasing prisoners and arresting people socially distant on the beach. Really dumb.

https://twitter.com/cbs8/status/1254126 ... 05796?s=21


Coronavirus is outing all Petri dishes of planet earth i.e., on water and land.

1) Cruise Ships
2) Nursing/Long Term/Elder Care Homes
3) Prisons

I will update the list as I gather more information.

List of Long term care facilities and +ve cases in Michigan
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html

Half of the population in one prison in +ve.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 111627804/
All posts are just opinions.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:11 pm

One of the growing problems in the USA is the Coved-19 infection rates at meat processing plants. This may mean shortages and some panic buying of meat. There is also problems with higher consumer demand and cuts in institutional and restaurant demand, logistical problems, differences in packaging, not enough farm workers, not enough trucks aggravating farm products with massive losses, product plowed over, cattle, hogs, chickens being mass killed as plants shut down.

Airlines can help with some of the meat and other food shortages. UA is donating 15,000 pounds of food from its EWR base to 3 NJ food banks. Food service has been pretty much eliminated as so few flying and to reduce contact risks in-flight, I hope other airlines are doing the same. https://www.nj.com/togethernj/2020/04/n ... lines.html
 
GDB
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:34 pm

ltbewr wrote:
One of the growing problems in the USA is the Coved-19 infection rates at meat processing plants. This may mean shortages and some panic buying of meat. There is also problems with higher consumer demand and cuts in institutional and restaurant demand, logistical problems, differences in packaging, not enough farm workers, not enough trucks aggravating farm products with massive losses, product plowed over, cattle, hogs, chickens being mass killed as plants shut down.

Airlines can help with some of the meat and other food shortages. UA is donating 15,000 pounds of food from its EWR base to 3 NJ food banks. Food service has been pretty much eliminated as so few flying and to reduce contact risks in-flight, I hope other airlines are doing the same. https://www.nj.com/togethernj/2020/04/n ... lines.html


You're not kidding about the meat processing plants;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52311877
 
StarAC17
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:04 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
This is how stupid it getting in Cali—releasing prisoners and arresting people socially distant on the beach. Really dumb.

https://twitter.com/cbs8/status/1254126 ... 05796?s=21


Releasing prisoners is retarded and many of us have called the state lege to express displeasure. But no sympathy for anyone violating city/county orders on closed beaches - there are many others that are open. In my area there are a handful closed and at least 10 more open.


Releasing of prisoners who are low risk has been happening in Canada, be it early parole, limited time left in the sentence, waiting for trial and they are being placed on house arrest.

While I think many on this board would simply say let those in prison die. Not everyone in jail committed an offense like rape or murder and what we know of American prisoners is that many of them are locked up for non-violent drug offenses or they could be waiting for their day in court. Social distancing is impossible in a prison and you have to still treat the sick so if you can decide who is non-threatening then let them be released into house arrest. Mass deaths from Covid-19 in a prison will be met with tons of lawsuits from the families of the prisoners.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:29 pm

CDC added few more symptoms, at this point if you are still alive, you may have ...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ptoms.html

I was looking at some testing data, very few states have more than 10 tests per 1000. Even the states with high positive % rates are not doing enough testing. Surprisingly some states opening up didn't do much test, which is troubling. I think NY is the only state doing its best, rest are still winging it.

Michigan seems to have flattened or bent the curve. Too soon to tell anything.
All posts are just opinions.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:53 pm

The liberals keep getting themselves in trouble and are showing that all they want is power over individuals. Fatso Pritzker got smoked by a federal judge today. He cannot extend the stay at home order.

https://www.bnd.com/news/politics-gover ... 26176.html
 
Concierge
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:15 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
The liberals keep getting themselves in trouble and are showing that all they want is power over individuals. Fatso Pritzker got smoked by a federal judge today. He cannot extend the stay at home order.

https://www.bnd.com/news/politics-gover ... 26176.html


It's an Illinois County Court ruling. Doesn't apply even to all of Illinois.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:26 am

Remember when the government was shut down for a month or so last year and the Democrats were crying that those affected employees were going to go hungry and suicides would increase over it? It was apparently all faux outrage. The have shown no such consideration for all of the people they have put out of work by their orders. None at all. They don't care and it seems they want to do as much damage as possible. They only states and cities that are opening back up are lead by Republicans. Democrat leaders are either dragging their feet or flat out refusing to even discuss reopening.
 
Newark727
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:40 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Remember when the government was shut down for a month or so last year and the Democrats were crying that those affected employees were going to go hungry and suicides would increase over it? It was apparently all faux outrage. The have shown no such consideration for all of the people they have put out of work by their orders. None at all. They don't care and it seems they want to do as much damage as possible. They only states and cities that are opening back up are lead by Republicans. Democrat leaders are either dragging their feet or flat out refusing to even discuss reopening.


I can't fault the optimism of the officials who are trying to get things back open. But the calculation is really pretty simple. If you open up, and enough infected people are still in circulation, you'll have to shut right back down again, having spread the virus to a new set of individuals. And even if the fatality rate is on the low end of current estimates, that's still some quantity of preventable deaths - and you've shut down your area's economy for twice as long as you would have otherwise. It's a pretty severe downside, and I wouldn't want leaders to take it lightly.
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:41 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
The liberals keep getting themselves in trouble and are showing that all they want is power over individuals. Fatso Pritzker got smoked by a federal judge today. He cannot extend the stay at home order.

https://www.bnd.com/news/politics-gover ... 26176.html


if the republicans want to put their snout out there. fine by me.
with the number of cases out there. They obviously weren't following his directive anyway.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:50 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
The liberals keep getting themselves in trouble and are showing that all they want is power over individuals. Fatso Pritzker got smoked by a federal judge today. He cannot extend the stay at home order.

https://www.bnd.com/news/politics-gover ... 26176.html


if the republicans want to put their snout out there. fine by me.
with the number of cases out there. They obviously weren't following his directive anyway.


I wished everyone shared your attitude. No one is forcing anyone to leave their house. You can stay shut in as long as you want. The rest of us need to get on with our lives. There's no beauty in the world sitting at home.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:58 am

Newark727 wrote:
But the calculation is really pretty simple. If you open up, and enough infected people are still in circulation, you'll have to shut right back down again, having spread the virus to a new set of individuals.

Well yeah, of course that is exactly what the few agitators on this site are seeking. Not support of the US, not a desire of "freedom for the public", they just want to harm the USA. That's it. Think about it. They know exactly what you are saying, and they want it to happen. (Just a few, a vocal few.) It is the way of the online disinformation engagement we live with nowadays.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:58 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
This is how stupid it getting in Cali—releasing prisoners and arresting people socially distant on the beach. Really dumb.

https://twitter.com/cbs8/status/1254126 ... 05796?s=21


why are you posting this here? wouldn't it fall under stupid things you noticed thread?
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:04 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
The liberals keep getting themselves in trouble and are showing that all they want is power over individuals. Fatso Pritzker got smoked by a federal judge today. He cannot extend the stay at home order.

https://www.bnd.com/news/politics-gover ... 26176.html


if the republicans want to put their snout out there. fine by me.
with the number of cases out there. They obviously weren't following his directive anyway.


I wished everyone shared your attitude. No one is forcing anyone to leave their house. You can stay shut in as long as you want. The rest of us need to get on with our lives. There's no beauty in the world sitting at home.


I have a very bad attitude. The sooner your ilk, spread the disease, the quicker this will be over. I've pretty much given up. Turns out common sense isn't that common. That is not a compliment, it's just the facts.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:07 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:

if the republicans want to put their snout out there. fine by me.
with the number of cases out there. They obviously weren't following his directive anyway.


I wished everyone shared your attitude. No one is forcing anyone to leave their house. You can stay shut in as long as you want. The rest of us need to get on with our lives. There's no beauty in the world sitting at home.


I have a very bad attitude. The sooner your ilk, spread the disease, the quicker this will be over. I've pretty much given up. Turns out common sense isn't that common.


My ilk? The mayor of Las Vegas is a Democrat and she is fuming over the nonsense of these business shutdowns and stay at home orders. She seems to be the only Democrat that understands that you need people working and spending money to collect taxes and run the government.
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:09 am

she's a independent. do us all a favor and research things before you post.
 
Newark727
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:12 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
My ilk? The mayor of Las Vegas is a Democrat and she is fuming over the nonsense of these business shutdowns and stay at home orders. She seems to be the only Democrat that understands that you need people working and spending money to collect taxes and run the government.


Well guess what? She's wrong too. Frankly, as the mayor of Las Vegas, she ought to understand playing the odds better than most - and right now, it's a roulette spin where if the wheel comes up in the first dozen, your economy is closed for another two months...
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:21 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
she's a independent. do us all a favor and research things before you post.


She only changed to an independent because of election rules changes in Nevada.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/las-vegas-ma ... ses-nevada
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:04 am

An interesting controversy is brewing over Youtube removing the interview of Dr. Erickson shortly after posting it, although it gathered several million views before being taken down.

It is still available here, and is well worth a watch:

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavir ... om-youtube
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
GDB
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:49 am

Newark727 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
My ilk? The mayor of Las Vegas is a Democrat and she is fuming over the nonsense of these business shutdowns and stay at home orders. She seems to be the only Democrat that understands that you need people working and spending money to collect taxes and run the government.


Well guess what? She's wrong too. Frankly, as the mayor of Las Vegas, she ought to understand playing the odds better than most - and right now, it's a roulette spin where if the wheel comes up in the first dozen, your economy is closed for another two months...


That interview with Anderson Cooper has gone, pardon the expression, viral.
I thought, as did anyone with any common sense and no wack-job agendas, 'is she drunk, or missed her meds?'
Cooper was stunned at her babbling incoherence.
But I can see why she appeals to those whose language she effectively speaks.
Luckily it seems she has no power to implement her nonsense.
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:13 am

In Finland there is a discussion that because of the low number of cases they will have a big second wave of the virus;

https://www.dn.se/nyheter/varlden/finla ... an-i-host/

Finland's counterpart to the Swedish Public Health Agency, THL, now warns that a second wave of the coronary infection can be much worse than the spread of infection that is now taking place. This is what Hufvudstadsbladet writes, which refers to a report submitted to the government.

"We can expect a second wave this fall," says Arto Palmu, head of research at THL's Department of Public Health Predictions and Evaluation.

It is the news agency STT that has read the Institute for Health and Welfare, THL, report to the government. There it is stated that if the corona epidemic in Finland slows down sharply increases the risk of a long and prolonged epidemic and the risk of a severe second epidemic wave. This is because many Finns have not yet been infected and cannot be protected with vaccine.

So far, 4,695 people have been confirmed to be infected and 193 people have been reported dead in covid-19 in Finland. 164,000 have been laid off from their jobs. On March 16, the Finnish government announced a national emergency and banned the gathering of more than ten people at the same time as a number of public places were closed and visits to elderly homes were banned. In contrast, elementary schools for grades 1 to 3 and day care centers were kept open for parents to "be able to continue working".

Arto Palmu, head of research at THL's Department of Public Health Predictions and Evaluation, notes that the virus has not received any major attachment outside the Helsinki area except for a few examples.

He describes the Finnish government's decision as "very effective".

- The number of infected patients has been declining for some time and the situation in the hospitals is under control, he says of the situation right now.

But it is also now that Finland's decision makers have to make a decision on which way the country should go. The restrictions should be eased and the risk of the infection taking off again. No decision has been taken, but according to Helsingin Sanomat, the government is opening discussions on Sunday about when restaurants can be re-opened.

In order to obtain a better decision basis, THL has started sampling to see how many have antibodies in the blood so that one can judge how many of the inhabitants have been infected by the corona virus. The first results will be presented later this week. In the first step, 500 people have been tested, but this will be followed up with several hundred tests in the week ahead.

According to Arto Palmu, this does not mean that the population can relax:

- If there is no vaccine then we can expect that a large part of the population is susceptible to the virus also in the fall. Although we can keep the spread down now, we can expect a second wave then. This, together with other respiratory diseases, can make it a major burden on health care.

Is it inevitable to get a second wave?

- In practice it is. But there may also be local outbreaks. Everyone is waiting for a vaccine to protect the population but it will take time to get it.

When DN asks Arto Palmu if he sees the Swedish model as a way forward, where people have a certain freedom of movement under their own responsibility, he replies that it remains to be seen. He wants answers to how much of the population is infected first. Instead, he highlights how the restrictions in Finland have had significant economic effects.

- They are huge and there is a limit to how long they can last. If you, as in Sweden, let the economy work a little better, you can also keep restrictions longer. All this must be examined.

According to Arto Palmu, the question is how long Finland will be financially able to endure the restrictions it now has. Also, no one knows how long the population can live with them, he says.

- We have never had such a situation before so we do not know how it will go. And the longer we have the restrictions, the more the burden from other diseases will also affect health care. Then further restrictions may be needed to hold back the epidemic. If we lift the restrictions, it can be a whole new situation. If there are many that can be infected, then the epidemic can start again.

Arto Palmu says that of course you look at Sweden but concludes that there are still far too few scientific facts that say which method works best. And it will probably be a long time before anyone has the answer to that question.


- For us, it has been important, just like in Sweden, to slow down the spread of infection so that the healthcare system can take care of everyone. There we have succeeded. If we take the opportunities of intensive care to receive the sick, it has succeeded and has not been overloaded so far. Most health care areas do not have as much pressure on intensive care. So far, we have not had to send patients from one area to another.

According to the institute's calculations, 14.5 percent of patients who received intensive care have died of covid-19 disease.

How has the infection affected Finland's elderly residents? In Sweden, the corona virus has hit these very hard.

- Several elderly homes in the Helsinki area and in other areas have been severely affected. The situation there is very troublesome.

What does the epidemic in Finland look like right now?

- Now it looks as if it is stable or possibly on its way down. In the Helsinki area, the number of people cared for in intensive care is stable and in several other places it has decreased. This has been the case for a number of weeks now.
 
N757ST
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:44 am

Francoflier wrote:
An interesting controversy is brewing over Youtube removing the interview of Dr. Erickson shortly after posting it, although it gathered several million views before being taken down.

It is still available here, and is well worth a watch:

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavir ... om-youtube


He has some good points but his method of data extrapolation is extremely flawed. He referenced 5% of covid tests coming back positive, but not the fact that until recently it was an act of god to get a test, so that’s obviously only going to count symptomatic people that are far more likely to have covid. There’s also a fair amount of false negatives with the current covid test.

With that said, I am under the impression that this is much much more widespread then we thought and the death rate is much lower then we originally thought. More and more antibody testing is coming back from NYC, and it’s pointing to 25%+ of the city was infected. My family is looking to find an antibody test. My mother was sick for 3 weeks, my son had pneumonia at the same time, dad had a dry cough for a week. All tested negative for flu but covid testing wasn’t available at that point.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:03 am

But NYC is probably the worst hit place on the planet.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
N757ST
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:12 am

Aesma wrote:
But NYC is probably the worst hit place on the planet.



You’re likely right. The worst place impacted in the world has a sub .5% death rate. Worse then flu? Yes. Bubonic plague? No.
 
N757ST
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:19 am

By that I mean this isn’t the plague. It’s a bad virus but it isn’t the killer we once thought. Hopefully we have enough data regarding therapeutics that come fall when another wave comes through we can adjust our treatment methods to further decrease risk and not shut down our countries going forward.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:42 am

Aesma wrote:
But NYC is probably the worst hit place on the planet.


NYC's numbers may look bad, but they are doing the right way. That is the only state with close to one million tests. In tests/1000 people NY leads the country with 41/1000. Sure it also has the highest positive rate.

NJ 25/1000 has very high positive rate but not many tests as NY.
MI 19/1000
VA 8/1000, only DC in Metro DC area is doing good with tests
MD with all the drama of importing 500,000 kits did only 100,000+ tests total for 6 Million people
GA 11/1000 and opening up salons and massage centers

We are not sure if Dem Governors are over doing it or GOP Governors have their head stuck in the sand.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:44 am

N757ST wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
An interesting controversy is brewing over Youtube removing the interview of Dr. Erickson shortly after posting it, although it gathered several million views before being taken down.

It is still available here, and is well worth a watch:

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavir ... om-youtube


He has some good points but his method of data extrapolation is extremely flawed. He referenced 5% of covid tests coming back positive, but not the fact that until recently it was an act of god to get a test, so that’s obviously only going to count symptomatic people that are far more likely to have covid. There’s also a fair amount of false negatives with the current covid test.

With that said, I am under the impression that this is much much more widespread then we thought and the death rate is much lower then we originally thought. More and more antibody testing is coming back from NYC, and it’s pointing to 25%+ of the city was infected. My family is looking to find an antibody test. My mother was sick for 3 weeks, my son had pneumonia at the same time, dad had a dry cough for a week. All tested negative for flu but covid testing wasn’t available at that point.


I agree.
A few good points but many flaws in their logic.

- As you say, true population exposure to the virus can only be gauged by truly randomized testing, which we are far from.
- They avoid talking about the evident spike in overall deaths (in most affected places) while relating the disease to the flu.
- They compare California to the rest of the World, especially NY and West Europe, which appear to be fighting a much deadlier strain. Their case for opening up might work for CA and other places where death rate is low and hospitals are empty, but extrapolating that situation to other places is wrong.
- Their comparison of Norway and Sweden does ignore the stark difference in mortality rate between the two.
- Their approach to 'opening up' is rather sketchy (little substance, no strategy).
- They brush away masks as ineffective for protection (which might be true in a public environment), but ignore their potential attenuating effect on spreading the virus.
- Finally, at the end of the second part of the video, they show their hand by revealing that they are co-owners of the medical practice which they admit is suffering financially. They stand to personally gain from lifting restrictions. They also seem to show a certain political view at the end when they somewhat emotionally mention that they believe governments are using the virus as an excuse to restrict freedoms...

All in all, not an unbiased opinion whatsoever, but a few valid points stand out:

- Sars-CoV2 is a numbers game, and those numbers can be made to say anything and they're especially good at instilling fear when out of context.
- Quarantining healthy people was never a medically accepted practice in case of viral outbreaks. Granted, we don't know the prevalence of asymptomatic transmission, but it is probably low.
- Shelter-in-place may have been warranted when hospitals were overloaded and people were dying at home, before we knew what we were dealing with, but not anymore in many places.
- Younger and healthier people at not really at risk of severe complications, unless they have pre-existing conditions.
- The more we test, the more infected we find, which might mean that the prevalence of the disease is likely higher than the reported cases, reducing the actual mortality rate.
-The fear mongering has stopped people from visiting hospitals for other reasons, which will potentially trigger an overload of the healthcare system when restrictions are lifted as chronic patients try to catch up with their missed consultations / treatments. Potentially deaths.
- The deleterious health effects on physical and mental health of staying home for extended periods and, for many, stressing about dramatically worsening financial conditions. All of this, ironically, has a negative effect on people's immune systems.
- The ventilator fiasco.
- The effects of the extreme measures on domestic violence.
- The ironic fact that people are allowed to visit supermarkets and other large shops which are perfect petri dishes for the virus as hundreds of unprotected shoppers manipulate all kinds of objects, many of which are made of materials on which the virus can survive for days, thus easily bringing the contamination in their homes. Yet they are not allowed to go outside or in less crowded environments where contamination is less likely.
- The virus will spread no matter what, as it is now well established in the community. Extreme social distancing will never achieve 0 cases, and waiting for such before lifting restrictions is illusory and economically suicidal.
- Generalized and rapid testing is going to be key to a (phased) reopening.
- Given the mass hysteria surrounding the disease, doctors may be encouraged to mark deaths down to Covid for patients which were dying anyway and in which Covid was merely an aggravating factor.
- Finally, your opinion of the lockdowns would differ widely depending on whether you are financially secure enough to withstand them or whether you are looking to go bankrupt without a job...
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:50 am

NYC might not be the absolute worst after all :

Image
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:39 pm

Aesma wrote:
NYC might not be the absolute worst after all :

Image


This is probably the only decently accurate indicator of the real effect of the novel coronavirus.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:15 pm

Francoflier wrote:
An interesting controversy is brewing over Youtube removing the interview of Dr. Erickson shortly after posting it, although it gathered several million views before being taken down.

It is still available here, and is well worth a watch:

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavir ... om-youtube


Thanks for the link. I agree, well worth a watch.

Albeit not based on random testing positive infection results, the doctors' projections and analyses are grounded on data. I think this is the clearest assessment of the penetration of the virus and its consequences so far. It was also interesting to note the danger of depression of the immune system resulting from people being subject to reduced viral and bacterial exposure.

If the doctors are right in their assertion that reduced exposure to antigens reduces the capacity of the immune system to deal with those antigens (and I believe that has been accepted as fact for many years), then 'sheltering in place' and increased disinfection of that place should result in a higher prevalence of infectious disease once restrictions are ended. That would mean a second wave of infection more penetrative in the population than the first.

I think the argument for confining people with multiple repercussions - on standards of living, education, mental well being, levels of crime (eg domestic abuse, child abuse), suicide, alcohol consumption et al - is becoming weaker and weaker.

While I strongly supported draconian controls being imposed while there were few data on which to make educated decisions about what to do about this new virus, there is now a wealth of data. Measures to contend with the virus should be altered accordingly IMO.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:22 pm

N757ST wrote:
Aesma wrote:
But NYC is probably the worst hit place on the planet.



You’re likely right. The worst place impacted in the world has a sub .5% death rate. Worse then flu? Yes. Bubonic plague? No.


Interesting thing is, the apocalyptic scenario that was expected of the US did not materialize, despite many here expecting that to happen with COVID.

COVID19 deaths among important western nations by 1M population, turns out the US is doing better than most, with the exception of Germany and Canada. Despite telling us our health care is worse than: Spain, Italy, France, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, we have a lower 1M population death ratio than those nations.

Tests by 1M population, the US has done better thus far than Netherlands, UK, France and even South Korea.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Now that the world's health care have gone through a huge stress test, we can debunk many myths. The US healthcare system is not that bad after all. Our healthcare infrastructure can weather a pandemic of this proportion, that says a lot about it.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister

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