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Francoflier
Posts: 5357
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:05 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
N757ST wrote:
Aesma wrote:
But NYC is probably the worst hit place on the planet.



You’re likely right. The worst place impacted in the world has a sub .5% death rate. Worse then flu? Yes. Bubonic plague? No.


Interesting thing is, the apocalyptic scenario that was expected of the US did not materialize, despite many here expecting that to happen with COVID.

COVID19 deaths among important western nations by 1M population, turns out the US is doing better than most, with the exception of Germany and Canada. Despite telling us our health care is worse than: Spain, Italy, France, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, we have a lower 1M population death ratio than those nations.

Tests by 1M population, the US has done better thus far than Netherlands, UK, France and even South Korea.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Now that the world's health care have gone through a huge stress test, we can debunk many myths. The US healthcare system is not that bad after all. Our healthcare infrastructure can weather a pandemic of this proportion, that says a lot about it.


True, but of note is that while the US as a whole has fared better than Europe in terms of overall numbers, the situation is actually a lot more granular once you look at the details.

Not all states have been affected the same. The East coast is suffering a lot more and is seeing numbers far worse than many European nations. NY does especially bad on a per capita basis.
Other states like California and Texas have fared much better in terms of cases, and while there could be many reasons for this, it is apparently coming to light that these regions are fighting a less deadly strain of the virus than the East Coast and Europe which seem to have been afflicted by a nastier one.
The differing climate of these regions might also have played a role.

What could lend it credence is that despite the first suspected cases in the US being from the West coast (imported from China at the beginning), it hasn't appeared to make anywhere near the same impact there as on the East coast, where the angrier cousin of the same virus could have arrived from Europe across the Atlantic as the busiest intercontinental air corridor in the World kept chugging along until quite late in the crisis while traffic from China had been snuffed.

The findings of all the eventual studies will be extremely interesting.

I wouldn't, however, sing the praises of the US healthcare system just yet...
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:16 pm

Francoflier wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
N757ST wrote:


You’re likely right. The worst place impacted in the world has a sub .5% death rate. Worse then flu? Yes. Bubonic plague? No.


Interesting thing is, the apocalyptic scenario that was expected of the US did not materialize, despite many here expecting that to happen with COVID.

COVID19 deaths among important western nations by 1M population, turns out the US is doing better than most, with the exception of Germany and Canada. Despite telling us our health care is worse than: Spain, Italy, France, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, we have a lower 1M population death ratio than those nations.

Tests by 1M population, the US has done better thus far than Netherlands, UK, France and even South Korea.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Now that the world's health care have gone through a huge stress test, we can debunk many myths. The US healthcare system is not that bad after all. Our healthcare infrastructure can weather a pandemic of this proportion, that says a lot about it.


True, but of note is that while the US as a whole has fared better than Europe in terms of overall numbers, the situation is actually a lot more granular once you look at the details.

Not all states have been affected the same. The East coast is suffering a lot more and is seeing numbers far worse than many European nations. NY does especially bad on a per capita basis.
Other states like California and Texas have fared much better in terms of cases, and while there could be many reasons for this, it is apparently coming to light that these regions are fighting a less deadly strain of the virus than the East Coast and Europe which seem to have been afflicted by a nastier one.
The differing climate of these regions might also have played a role.

What could lend it credence is that despite the first suspected cases in the US being from the West coast (imported from China at the beginning), it hasn't appeared to make anywhere near the same impact there as on the East coast, where the angrier cousin of the same virus could have arrived from Europe across the Atlantic as the busiest intercontinental air corridor in the World kept chugging along until quite late in the crisis while traffic from China had been snuffed.

The findings of all the eventual studies will be extremely interesting.

I wouldn't, however, sing the praises of the US healthcare system just yet...


True, its too early. But based on data, even in Europe, there are regions of Europe that have been hit worse than others. Even in Italy, northern Italy got the worse of the virus, compared to the rest of Italy.

One good measure to see that NY wasn't as bad as we thought it would be, is that despite the huge number of cases in NY, no one died because of the lack of hospital beds or ventilators, something that happened in Northern Italy, parts of Spain and other areas of Europe.

We all agree NY and the NE of the US has gotten the worse of the virus, yet the data seems to suggest that the healthcare system there has done very well coping with it.

Here in Florida, which is known to be the mecca for those who retire, a lot of old population here, the death rates are very very low compared to the rest of the nation, and the hospitalization rate also very low.

What I find interesting is that the MSM sings praises of Gov. Cuomo and Gov. De santis of Florida is heavily criticized when it seems that Florida has done much much better than NY with this virus. I can attest that my governor has done a great job thus far, and he hasn't even implemented the harsh draconian restrictions other states have done.

NYC should have at the very least, stopped all subways, its mind boggling that they did not.

In any case, a lot of myths are being debunked as we speak.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
2122M
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:26 pm

Francoflier wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
N757ST wrote:


You’re likely right. The worst place impacted in the world has a sub .5% death rate. Worse then flu? Yes. Bubonic plague? No.


Interesting thing is, the apocalyptic scenario that was expected of the US did not materialize, despite many here expecting that to happen with COVID.

COVID19 deaths among important western nations by 1M population, turns out the US is doing better than most, with the exception of Germany and Canada. Despite telling us our health care is worse than: Spain, Italy, France, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, we have a lower 1M population death ratio than those nations.

Tests by 1M population, the US has done better thus far than Netherlands, UK, France and even South Korea.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Now that the world's health care have gone through a huge stress test, we can debunk many myths. The US healthcare system is not that bad after all. Our healthcare infrastructure can weather a pandemic of this proportion, that says a lot about it.


True, but of note is that while the US as a whole has fared better than Europe in terms of overall numbers, the situation is actually a lot more granular once you look at the details.

Not all states have been affected the same. The East coast is suffering a lot more and is seeing numbers far worse than many European nations. NY does especially bad on a per capita basis.
Other states like California and Texas have fared much better in terms of cases, and while there could be many reasons for this, it is apparently coming to light that these regions are fighting a less deadly strain of the virus than the East Coast and Europe which seem to have been afflicted by a nastier one.
The differing climate of these regions might also have played a role.

What could lend it credence is that despite the first suspected cases in the US being from the West coast (imported from China at the beginning), it hasn't appeared to make anywhere near the same impact there as on the East coast, where the angrier cousin of the same virus could have arrived from Europe across the Atlantic as the busiest intercontinental air corridor in the World kept chugging along until quite late in the crisis while traffic from China had been snuffed.

The findings of all the eventual studies will be extremely interesting.

I wouldn't, however, sing the praises of the US healthcare system just yet...


Not to mention, the grand debate over the US healthcare system has little to do with the quality of heathcare and much more to do with how its paid for. For the amount of money American's are required to spend on healthcare, we should have had much better results than anywhere else in the world. The fact that we spend substantially more per capita on healthcare than the rest of the world means its a little embarrassing that we are just in the middle of the pack in terms of covid response.

US healthcare spend per capita - $10,224; US Covid deaths per million - 172

vs

Germany's spend - $5,728; Germany deaths per million - 73
Canada's spend - $4,826 ; Canada's deaths per million - 72
Japan's spend - $4,717; Japan's deaths per million - 3

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/cha ... u-s-spends

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:43 pm

2122M wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Interesting thing is, the apocalyptic scenario that was expected of the US did not materialize, despite many here expecting that to happen with COVID.

COVID19 deaths among important western nations by 1M population, turns out the US is doing better than most, with the exception of Germany and Canada. Despite telling us our health care is worse than: Spain, Italy, France, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, we have a lower 1M population death ratio than those nations.

Tests by 1M population, the US has done better thus far than Netherlands, UK, France and even South Korea.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Now that the world's health care have gone through a huge stress test, we can debunk many myths. The US healthcare system is not that bad after all. Our healthcare infrastructure can weather a pandemic of this proportion, that says a lot about it.


True, but of note is that while the US as a whole has fared better than Europe in terms of overall numbers, the situation is actually a lot more granular once you look at the details.

Not all states have been affected the same. The East coast is suffering a lot more and is seeing numbers far worse than many European nations. NY does especially bad on a per capita basis.
Other states like California and Texas have fared much better in terms of cases, and while there could be many reasons for this, it is apparently coming to light that these regions are fighting a less deadly strain of the virus than the East Coast and Europe which seem to have been afflicted by a nastier one.
The differing climate of these regions might also have played a role.

What could lend it credence is that despite the first suspected cases in the US being from the West coast (imported from China at the beginning), it hasn't appeared to make anywhere near the same impact there as on the East coast, where the angrier cousin of the same virus could have arrived from Europe across the Atlantic as the busiest intercontinental air corridor in the World kept chugging along until quite late in the crisis while traffic from China had been snuffed.

The findings of all the eventual studies will be extremely interesting.

I wouldn't, however, sing the praises of the US healthcare system just yet...


Not to mention, the grand debate over the US healthcare system has little to do with the quality of heathcare and much more to do with how its paid for. For the amount of money American's are required to spend on healthcare, we should have had much better results than anywhere else in the world. The fact that we spend substantially more per capita on healthcare than the rest of the world means its a little embarrassing that we are just in the middle of the pack in terms of covid response.

US healthcare spend per capita - $10,224; US Covid deaths per million - 172

vs

Germany's spend - $5,728; Germany deaths per million - 73
Canada's spend - $4,826 ; Canada's deaths per million - 72
Japan's spend - $4,717; Japan's deaths per million - 3

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/cha ... u-s-spends

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


The expenditure per capita is the statistic that most of those who want a socialist run healthcare system such as the one in Europe use for us to change. Clearly, France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands etc they have worse numbers than the US despite having less expensive per capita healthcare.

And yes quality of healthcare does matter, higher costs because the quality is better seems to be why we have done better than the nations I mentioned. Of course Germany, Canada and Japan being the exception. But the fact that the US has been able to cope with this unprecedented pandemic in such a way that we haven't denied a bed and a ventilator to anyone despite not being able to afford, that's what count.

Don't understand why the argument that the US spends too much money on healthcare is relevant, when most of you say that there is no cost to human life, and money is not important, saving lives is more important, that's what you all say. But when it comes to comparing the US to others, you do say money is important because of the per capita expenditure.

The fact is, if you are poor in the US and have kids (in most states) you get healthcare via medicaid, and you don't pay a cent. Other places you qualify for free halthcare. So no, I think the US health care system is good as it is.

One reason Bernie Sander's candidacy failed, was that the argument of healthcare fall all fell flat on its face when the news reports from Italy and Spain starting coming out, and how those systems failed miserably over there taking care of its people. American's saw how their system was not that bad considering the others which they wanted us to have.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
2122M
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:54 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
2122M wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

True, but of note is that while the US as a whole has fared better than Europe in terms of overall numbers, the situation is actually a lot more granular once you look at the details.

Not all states have been affected the same. The East coast is suffering a lot more and is seeing numbers far worse than many European nations. NY does especially bad on a per capita basis.
Other states like California and Texas have fared much better in terms of cases, and while there could be many reasons for this, it is apparently coming to light that these regions are fighting a less deadly strain of the virus than the East Coast and Europe which seem to have been afflicted by a nastier one.
The differing climate of these regions might also have played a role.

What could lend it credence is that despite the first suspected cases in the US being from the West coast (imported from China at the beginning), it hasn't appeared to make anywhere near the same impact there as on the East coast, where the angrier cousin of the same virus could have arrived from Europe across the Atlantic as the busiest intercontinental air corridor in the World kept chugging along until quite late in the crisis while traffic from China had been snuffed.

The findings of all the eventual studies will be extremely interesting.

I wouldn't, however, sing the praises of the US healthcare system just yet...


Not to mention, the grand debate over the US healthcare system has little to do with the quality of heathcare and much more to do with how its paid for. For the amount of money American's are required to spend on healthcare, we should have had much better results than anywhere else in the world. The fact that we spend substantially more per capita on healthcare than the rest of the world means its a little embarrassing that we are just in the middle of the pack in terms of covid response.

US healthcare spend per capita - $10,224; US Covid deaths per million - 172

vs

Germany's spend - $5,728; Germany deaths per million - 73
Canada's spend - $4,826 ; Canada's deaths per million - 72
Japan's spend - $4,717; Japan's deaths per million - 3

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/cha ... u-s-spends

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


The expenditure per capita is the statistic that most of those who want a socialist run healthcare system such as the one in Europe use for us to change. Clearly, France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands etc they have worse numbers than the US despite having less expensive per capita healthcare.

And yes quality of healthcare does matter, higher costs because the quality is better seems to be why we have done better than the nations I mentioned. Of course Germany, Canada and Japan being the exception. But the fact that the US has been able to cope with this unprecedented pandemic in such a way that we haven't denied a bed and a ventilator to anyone despite not being able to afford, that's what count.

Don't understand why the argument that the US spends too much money on healthcare is relevant, when most of you say that there is no cost to human life, and money is not important, saving lives is more important, that's what you all say. But when it comes to comparing the US to others, you do say money is important because of the per capita expenditure.

The fact is, if you are poor in the US and have kids (in most states) you get healthcare via medicaid, and you don't pay a cent. Other places you qualify for free halthcare. So no, I think the US health care system is good as it is.

One reason Bernie Sander's candidacy failed, was that the argument of healthcare fall all fell flat on its face when the news reports from Italy and Spain starting coming out, and how those systems failed miserably over there taking care of its people. American's saw how their system was not that bad considering the others which they wanted us to have.


So you don't think a country that spends twice as much per person on healthcare should have done twice as well as any other country when it comes to results? We are 1st when it comes to dollars spent per capita on healthcare and 16th worst in the whole world in terms of deaths rate as a result of Covid. And that number will get worse. The number of new cases in Europe has been going down for a couple of weeks now, its still flat or rising in the US.

Are you really OK with that? 0 countries spending more per person on healthcare but 178 countries doing better than us with this virus?
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:01 pm

2122M wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
2122M wrote:

Not to mention, the grand debate over the US healthcare system has little to do with the quality of heathcare and much more to do with how its paid for. For the amount of money American's are required to spend on healthcare, we should have had much better results than anywhere else in the world. The fact that we spend substantially more per capita on healthcare than the rest of the world means its a little embarrassing that we are just in the middle of the pack in terms of covid response.

US healthcare spend per capita - $10,224; US Covid deaths per million - 172

vs

Germany's spend - $5,728; Germany deaths per million - 73
Canada's spend - $4,826 ; Canada's deaths per million - 72
Japan's spend - $4,717; Japan's deaths per million - 3

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/cha ... u-s-spends

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


The expenditure per capita is the statistic that most of those who want a socialist run healthcare system such as the one in Europe use for us to change. Clearly, France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands etc they have worse numbers than the US despite having less expensive per capita healthcare.

And yes quality of healthcare does matter, higher costs because the quality is better seems to be why we have done better than the nations I mentioned. Of course Germany, Canada and Japan being the exception. But the fact that the US has been able to cope with this unprecedented pandemic in such a way that we haven't denied a bed and a ventilator to anyone despite not being able to afford, that's what count.

Don't understand why the argument that the US spends too much money on healthcare is relevant, when most of you say that there is no cost to human life, and money is not important, saving lives is more important, that's what you all say. But when it comes to comparing the US to others, you do say money is important because of the per capita expenditure.

The fact is, if you are poor in the US and have kids (in most states) you get healthcare via medicaid, and you don't pay a cent. Other places you qualify for free halthcare. So no, I think the US health care system is good as it is.

One reason Bernie Sander's candidacy failed, was that the argument of healthcare fall all fell flat on its face when the news reports from Italy and Spain starting coming out, and how those systems failed miserably over there taking care of its people. American's saw how their system was not that bad considering the others which they wanted us to have.


So you don't think a country that spends twice as much per person on healthcare should have done twice as well as any other country when it comes to results? We are 1st when it comes to dollars spent per capita on healthcare and 16th worst in the whole world in terms of deaths rate as a result of Covid. And that number will get worse. The number of new cases in Europe has been going down for a couple of weeks now, its still flat or rising in the US.

Are you really OK with that? 0 countries spending more per person on healthcare but 178 countries doing better than us with this virus?


Well, it seems to me that COVID19 doesn't attack based on how much money your country spends on healthcare. COVID19 and any other sort of virus that attacks now or in the future spreads independently of who much money your country spends on healthcare.

Like I said, having doctors, hospital beds, ventilators its all part of having money to spend on your healthcare. Italy, Spain and the others apparently had people dying initially because of the lack of those things, things which you will need to buy with money, and are expensive.

Germany, Canada and Japan did manage to contain the spread better than the US, that helped. But if you look closely compare NY to Northern Italy and parts of Spain, you will find that NYC despite spending more money on healthcare did fare much much better, for the simple reason that they had ample beds available and ventilators.

As for cases in the US, we have flattened the curve, that's according to the same link you posted. So we are on the other side, and the worse has passed. And which other 178 countries doing better than the US on this virus, which ones are they?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11514
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:20 pm

The rush to open the economy is continuing even as evidence suggest far less than 10% of the US population has had Covid 19. The next six weeks will be interesting to watch in the US as the economy is being restarted, while also watching New Zealand.


New Zealand has a handle on all their cases, yet in the US we have no ideas about asymptomatic cases, and the reopenings will be staggered, and uneven across state borders.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... w-zealand/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us ... irus-trnd/

I have maintained that the US should remain locked down until June 1, but at this point it will be opening sooner. Due to the high curve, and the number of cases, I
I expect we will reenter lockdowns by July 1 in many areas.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:24 pm

casinterest wrote:
The rush to open the economy is continuing even as evidence suggest far less than 10% of the US population has had Covid 19. The next six weeks will be interesting to watch in the US as the economy is being restarted, while also watching New Zealand.


New Zealand has a handle on all their cases, yet in the US we have no ideas about asymptomatic cases, and the reopenings will be staggered, and uneven across state borders.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... w-zealand/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us ... irus-trnd/

I have maintained that the US should remain locked down until June 1, but at this point it will be opening sooner. Due to the high curve, and the number of cases, I
I expect we will reenter lockdowns by July 1 in many areas.


As long as they do targeted lock downs and not state wide again then sounds like a reasonable plan till we have a vaccine.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11514
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:26 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
casinterest wrote:
The rush to open the economy is continuing even as evidence suggest far less than 10% of the US population has had Covid 19. The next six weeks will be interesting to watch in the US as the economy is being restarted, while also watching New Zealand.


New Zealand has a handle on all their cases, yet in the US we have no ideas about asymptomatic cases, and the reopenings will be staggered, and uneven across state borders.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... w-zealand/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us ... irus-trnd/

I have maintained that the US should remain locked down until June 1, but at this point it will be opening sooner. Due to the high curve, and the number of cases, I
I expect we will reenter lockdowns by July 1 in many areas.


As long as they do targeted lock downs and not state wide again then sounds like a reasonable plan till we have a vaccine.


By then , the spread will be much wider. The virus has spread to most counties in the US. By the time it blows up again, everyone will be getting it quickly.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
2122M
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:27 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Well, it seems to me that COVID19 doesn't attack based on how much money your country spends on healthcare. COVID19 and any other sort of virus that attacks now or in the future spreads independently of who much money your country spends on healthcare.


This is a meaningless statement. We're obviously not talking about how the virus spreads, but how are are able to respond and deal with it.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Like I said, having doctors, hospital beds, ventilators its all part of having money to spend on your healthcare. Italy, Spain and the others apparently had people dying initially because of the lack of those things, things which you will need to buy with money, and are expensive.


Last data available (2016) shows France with 6.06 hospital beds per capita, Italy with 3.17 and the US with a lowly 2.77. So that must not be it....

More doctors per capita in those countries as well.....

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Germany, Canada and Japan did manage to contain the spread better than the US, that helped. But if you look closely compare NY to Northern Italy and parts of Spain, you will find that NYC despite spending more money on healthcare did fare much much better, for the simple reason that they had ample beds available and ventilators.


Lets not forget that things got bad in Europe a couple of weeks before they got hot in the US. NYC had time to prepare and about 2 more weeks worth of information and data as well as time compared to Italy.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
As for cases in the US, we have flattened the curve, that's according to the same link you posted. So we are on the other side, and the worse has passed. And which other 178 countries doing better than the US on this virus, which ones are they?


Well, we are 16th worst in the world in terms of deaths per million. There are 195 countries......

Also, the highest one day reporting of new cases so far was April 24th. 4 days ago. Do you really want to hand the 'MIssion Accomplished' banner so soon? For comparison, Italy's new cases peak was March 21st, Spain's was March 26th with another peak on April 1st.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11514
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:32 pm

Interesting diagram to keep in mind during this rush to open.

Image

From the below article highlighting the sweden vs denmark response ot this pandemic.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... D=ref_fark
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
N212R
Posts: 330
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:18 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:34 pm

Francoflier wrote:
it is apparently coming to light that these regions are fighting a less deadly strain of the virus than the East Coast and Europe which seem to have been afflicted by a nastier one.


Which accords perfectly with what folks like Prof Montagnier have stated. This was a botched vaccine experiment while working with HIV genome and the SARS virus. The added HIV sequences are naturally eliminating themselves as the virus mutates thus the disparate strains.
 
2122M
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Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:37 pm

N212R wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
it is apparently coming to light that these regions are fighting a less deadly strain of the virus than the East Coast and Europe which seem to have been afflicted by a nastier one.


Which accords perfectly with what folks like Prof Montagnier have stated. This was a botched vaccine experiment while working with HIV genome and the SARS virus. The added HIV sequences are naturally eliminating themselves as the virus mutates thus the disparate strains.


Don't all viruses end up mutating and forming varying strains? As I understand it, the flu does that every year. Does that mean the flu was made in a lab under nefarious circumstances too?
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15199
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:42 pm

The 'excess deaths' numbers above norms for the same time period is likely to be the closest to being accurate as to those who died from Covid-19. There some caveats as to the norm for this time but likely to balance out. There is likely fewer deaths from car, workplace and sports accidents, criminal acts and from various diseases. There could be more baseline deaths as significant numbers are dying at home from non-Covid-19 health problems including heart attacks, strokes, diabetic shock and existing respiratory diseases as afraid at all or delayed going to a hospital out of fear of getting the virus or not able to get care quickly. Some places may have different standards or inaccurate mean numbers as well as political influences to hold down numbers of deaths (and infections).

The dominate high areas of infections and deaths seem to be with those with existing medical conditions, age, risk of contact with infected persons. This includes those that provide medical services in particular hospitals, first responders like police and EMT's, persons living and working in nursing and long-term care facilities, various essential workers including in food processing (like meat processing plants), grocery store workers, or some group contact before the social distancing measures were implemented like in churches, funeral services.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:44 pm

casinterest wrote:
The rush to open the economy is continuing even as evidence suggest far less than 10% of the US population has had Covid 19. The next six weeks will be interesting to watch in the US as the economy is being restarted, while also watching New Zealand.


New Zealand has a handle on all their cases, yet in the US we have no ideas about asymptomatic cases, and the reopenings will be staggered, and uneven across state borders.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... w-zealand/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us ... irus-trnd/

I have maintained that the US should remain locked down until June 1, but at this point it will be opening sooner. Due to the high curve, and the number of cases, I
I expect we will reenter lockdowns by July 1 in many areas.


Don't know, but to me, it seems that if 10% of the population had already COVID19, the best way to move forward on normalcy is to get to herd immunity, in a way that doesn't overwhelm hospital capacity. A vaccine will arrive to late to avoid this. Unless we are to be kept hiding from it for 18 months.

As for New Zealand, their strategy of containment has done well, whether or not they are going to keep it, by isolating themselves from the rest of the world until a vaccine is out, its the question. They are avoiding herd immunity, which can be a bad thing for the long term.

As for your June 1st date, you are setting a one size fits all to the entire US, when there are places with not much problems with COVID.


2122M wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Well, it seems to me that COVID19 doesn't attack based on how much money your country spends on healthcare. COVID19 and any other sort of virus that attacks now or in the future spreads independently of who much money your country spends on healthcare.


This is a meaningless statement. We're obviously not talking about how the virus spreads, but how are are able to respond and deal with it.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Like I said, having doctors, hospital beds, ventilators its all part of having money to spend on your healthcare. Italy, Spain and the others apparently had people dying initially because of the lack of those things, things which you will need to buy with money, and are expensive.


Last data available (2016) shows France with 6.06 hospital beds per capita, Italy with 3.17 and the US with a lowly 2.77. So that must not be it....

More doctors per capita in those countries as well.....

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Germany, Canada and Japan did manage to contain the spread better than the US, that helped. But if you look closely compare NY to Northern Italy and parts of Spain, you will find that NYC despite spending more money on healthcare did fare much much better, for the simple reason that they had ample beds available and ventilators.


Lets not forget that things got bad in Europe a couple of weeks before they got hot in the US. NYC had time to prepare and about 2 more weeks worth of information and data as well as time compared to Italy.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
As for cases in the US, we have flattened the curve, that's according to the same link you posted. So we are on the other side, and the worse has passed. And which other 178 countries doing better than the US on this virus, which ones are they?


Well, we are 16th worst in the world in terms of deaths per million. There are 195 countries......

Also, the highest one day reporting of new cases so far was April 24th. 4 days ago. Do you really want to hand the 'MIssion Accomplished' banner so soon? For comparison, Italy's new cases peak was March 21st, Spain's was March 26th with another peak on April 1st.



Don't know, but to me hoping things get worse in the US to prove political ideas or bring up agendas is not the best way. If we really do care about people, we should just hope we are in the other side of this.

The data, thus far shows that the US has done much better than what many of those with political agendas expected. No way to say the contrary. We have only been outdone by Germany, Canada and Japan, you need to compare the US with big and western nations (they have more transparency).
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
Jalap
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:02 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
We all agree NY and the NE of the US has gotten the worse of the virus, yet the data seems to suggest that the healthcare system there has done very well coping with it.

Do we?
Perhaps if half the population is immune by now. If it’s less than 10 percent, then it’s a very slippery slope still, requiring decent measures and a disciplined population to not make the current numbers quadrupel over de next months.

I also notice you’re speaking a lot in past tense. That’s remarkable. I thought we all agreed that it’s nowhere near over yet... . Under control, possibly. But over, no.
 
N212R
Posts: 330
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:18 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:02 pm

2122M wrote:
N212R wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
it is apparently coming to light that these regions are fighting a less deadly strain of the virus than the East Coast and Europe which seem to have been afflicted by a nastier one.


Which accords perfectly with what folks like Prof Montagnier have stated. This was a botched vaccine experiment while working with HIV genome and the SARS virus. The added HIV sequences are naturally eliminating themselves as the virus mutates thus the disparate strains.


Don't all viruses end up mutating and forming varying strains? As I understand it, the flu does that every year. Does that mean the flu was made in a lab under nefarious circumstances too?


The difference being the flu virus has long been sequenced and it's mutative evolution well documented. This SARS-CoVid-2 virus arrived, fully formed if you will, with completely incongruous HIV genome sequences. That's not the way virus evolution works.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11514
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:07 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
The rush to open the economy is continuing even as evidence suggest far less than 10% of the US population has had Covid 19. The next six weeks will be interesting to watch in the US as the economy is being restarted, while also watching New Zealand.


New Zealand has a handle on all their cases, yet in the US we have no ideas about asymptomatic cases, and the reopenings will be staggered, and uneven across state borders.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... w-zealand/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us ... irus-trnd/

I have maintained that the US should remain locked down until June 1, but at this point it will be opening sooner. Due to the high curve, and the number of cases, I
I expect we will reenter lockdowns by July 1 in many areas.


Don't know, but to me, it seems that if 10% of the population had already COVID19, the best way to move forward on normalcy is to get to herd immunity, in a way that doesn't overwhelm hospital capacity. A vaccine will arrive to late to avoid this. Unless we are to be kept hiding from it for 18 months.

As for New Zealand, their strategy of containment has done well, whether or not they are going to keep it, by isolating themselves from the rest of the world until a vaccine is out, its the question. They are avoiding herd immunity, which can be a bad thing for the long term.

As for your June 1st date, you are setting a one size fits all to the entire US, when there are places with not much problems with COVID.



90 % still have to get it. Herd Immunity means a lot of the herd has to die. Not overwhelming hospital capacity involves social distancing. The US will have an issue as the rush to open will spread the virus in regions that consider themselves immune, and have a low amount of hospitals per capita( RURAL).

June 1 was my target as we needed to get the virus under control and stamped out in low spread areas. That isn't going to happen, and now we will see issues.


I agree that New Zealand will see issues, but those issues also apply to low spread areas in the US.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
2122M
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:14 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Don't know, but to me hoping things get worse in the US to prove political ideas or bring up agendas is not the best way. If we really do care about people, we should just hope we are in the other side of this.

The data, thus far shows that the US has done much better than what many of those with political agendas expected. No way to say the contrary. We have only been outdone by Germany, Canada and Japan, you need to compare the US with big and western nations (they have more transparency).


Who said they are hoping for things to get worse? What an absolutely absurd and nasty allegation. I'm simply pointing out facts. The fact is, we are at the peak, with our highest number of new cases only 4 days behind us. There is no political slant to that fact. And there is no-one celebrating that fact. Its just a plain and simple fact.

And add to your list of wealthy, western countries with better outcomes than us. Not just Germany, Canada and Japan. Also Portugal, Denmark, Austria, Norway, Finland, Poland, Mexico, Russia, New Zealand, Australia, Singapore, South Africa.....
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8507
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:22 pm

casinterest wrote:
Interesting diagram to keep in mind during this rush to open.

Image

From the below article highlighting the sweden vs denmark response ot this pandemic.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... D=ref_fark


Actually, Sweden is looking great. Overall new cases are stable, but ICU hospitalization are decreasing and so are new daily deaths. They have successfully flattened the curve without closing up shop. This all means it's probably just a matter of time before the chart you posted sees a drop in deaths/million for Sweden.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... _in_Sweden
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:24 pm

Jalap wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
We all agree NY and the NE of the US has gotten the worse of the virus, yet the data seems to suggest that the healthcare system there has done very well coping with it.

Do we?
Perhaps if half the population is immune by now. If it’s less than 10 percent, then it’s a very slippery slope still, requiring decent measures and a disciplined population to not make the current numbers quadrupel over de next months.

I also notice you’re speaking a lot in past tense. That’s remarkable. I thought we all agreed that it’s nowhere near over yet... . Under control, possibly. But over, no.


Most of the 'experts' say that the worse is over, yet they leave out the second wave on the fall as another turn and spike.

Its not going to be over till either we get to herd immunity or most of the population gets a vaccine, but for now the worse is over.

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
The rush to open the economy is continuing even as evidence suggest far less than 10% of the US population has had Covid 19. The next six weeks will be interesting to watch in the US as the economy is being restarted, while also watching New Zealand.


New Zealand has a handle on all their cases, yet in the US we have no ideas about asymptomatic cases, and the reopenings will be staggered, and uneven across state borders.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... w-zealand/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us ... irus-trnd/

I have maintained that the US should remain locked down until June 1, but at this point it will be opening sooner. Due to the high curve, and the number of cases, I
I expect we will reenter lockdowns by July 1 in many areas.


Don't know, but to me, it seems that if 10% of the population had already COVID19, the best way to move forward on normalcy is to get to herd immunity, in a way that doesn't overwhelm hospital capacity. A vaccine will arrive to late to avoid this. Unless we are to be kept hiding from it for 18 months.

As for New Zealand, their strategy of containment has done well, whether or not they are going to keep it, by isolating themselves from the rest of the world until a vaccine is out, its the question. They are avoiding herd immunity, which can be a bad thing for the long term.

As for your June 1st date, you are setting a one size fits all to the entire US, when there are places with not much problems with COVID.



90 % still have to get it. Herd Immunity means a lot of the herd has to die. Not overwhelming hospital capacity involves social distancing. The US will have an issue as the rush to open will spread the virus in regions that consider themselves immune, and have a low amount of hospitals per capita( RURAL).

June 1 was my target as we needed to get the virus under control and stamped out in low spread areas. That isn't going to happen, and now we will see issues.


I agree that New Zealand will see issues, but those issues also apply to low spread areas in the US.


People are scared like crazy, and most of us have learned how to adapt to this new reality of social distancing. We go to the grocery store all the time, and we have learned from these new rules.

We are going to do just fine. And last time I heard you make predictions, they did not materialize. We are going to be just fine with the opening in phases and avoiding getting too close. People are going to still get infected and unfortunately some will also die. This virus won't vanish from earth after June 1st.

2122M wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Don't know, but to me hoping things get worse in the US to prove political ideas or bring up agendas is not the best way. If we really do care about people, we should just hope we are in the other side of this.

The data, thus far shows that the US has done much better than what many of those with political agendas expected. No way to say the contrary. We have only been outdone by Germany, Canada and Japan, you need to compare the US with big and western nations (they have more transparency).


Who said they are hoping for things to get worse? What an absolutely absurd and nasty allegation. I'm simply pointing out facts. The fact is, we are at the peak, with our highest number of new cases only 4 days behind us. There is no political slant to that fact. And there is no-one celebrating that fact. Its just a plain and simple fact.

And add to your list of wealthy, western countries with better outcomes than us. Not just Germany, Canada and Japan. Also Portugal, Denmark, Austria, Norway, Finland, Poland, Mexico, Russia, New Zealand, Australia, Singapore, South Africa.....


We have already past the peak, we have flattened the curve. Now that's a fact, show me we haven't. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

As for those nations, I said major western rich nations, perhaps Australia was overlooked, but you can't put Mexico and Russia on the list unless you believe anything Putin says.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
2122M
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:28 pm

N212R wrote:
2122M wrote:
N212R wrote:

Which accords perfectly with what folks like Prof Montagnier have stated. This was a botched vaccine experiment while working with HIV genome and the SARS virus. The added HIV sequences are naturally eliminating themselves as the virus mutates thus the disparate strains.


Don't all viruses end up mutating and forming varying strains? As I understand it, the flu does that every year. Does that mean the flu was made in a lab under nefarious circumstances too?


The difference being the flu virus has long been sequenced and it's mutative evolution well documented. This SARS-CoVid-2 virus arrived, fully formed if you will, with completely incongruous HIV genome sequences. That's not the way virus evolution works.


"However, many experts have dismissed Montagnier’s claim and said that many other organisms have the same so-called “unique” protein sequence insertions and not just HIV. Several studies conducted so far to analyze the genetic make-up of coronavirus has shown that it has a natural origin and is not a man-made entity.

One of the studies conducted by a postdoctoral fellow at McMaster University revealed that the very short sequences studied in coronavirus are very similar to that of HIV. However, studying and comparing small protein segments can often result in false positives and no conclusions can be made on the basis of such data."

(https://www.latintimes.com/covid-19-res ... luc-457948)

Further reading: https://www.europeanscientist.com/en/bi ... etic-code/
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 8338
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:34 pm

Apparently product quality in China has gone back to being mediocre after achieving impeccable quality with COVID-19.

German 11 Million masks defective
https://isaan.live/travel-germany/trans ... rom-china/

India thrashed 600,000 tests
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/c ... 2020-04-22

Netherlands recalled 1.3 Million masks
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-nethe ... a-52949216

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/busi ... virus.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/faulty-n95 ... 1586437345
All posts are just opinions.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11514
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:45 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Don't know, but to me, it seems that if 10% of the population had already COVID19, the best way to move forward on normalcy is to get to herd immunity, in a way that doesn't overwhelm hospital capacity. A vaccine will arrive to late to avoid this. Unless we are to be kept hiding from it for 18 months.

As for New Zealand, their strategy of containment has done well, whether or not they are going to keep it, by isolating themselves from the rest of the world until a vaccine is out, its the question. They are avoiding herd immunity, which can be a bad thing for the long term.

As for your June 1st date, you are setting a one size fits all to the entire US, when there are places with not much problems with COVID.



90 % still have to get it. Herd Immunity means a lot of the herd has to die. Not overwhelming hospital capacity involves social distancing. The US will have an issue as the rush to open will spread the virus in regions that consider themselves immune, and have a low amount of hospitals per capita( RURAL).

June 1 was my target as we needed to get the virus under control and stamped out in low spread areas. That isn't going to happen, and now we will see issues.


I agree that New Zealand will see issues, but those issues also apply to low spread areas in the US.


People are scared like crazy, and most of us have learned how to adapt to this new reality of social distancing. We go to the grocery store all the time, and we have learned from these new rules.

We are going to do just fine. And last time I heard you make predictions, they did not materialize. We are going to be just fine with the opening in phases and avoiding getting too close. People are going to still get infected and unfortunately some will also die. This virus won't vanish from earth after June 1st.

.

What predictions didn't materialize? That if we reopen sooner the death counts will be higher? They will. That the economy will still struggle ? It will.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
2122M
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:53 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
We have already past the peak, we have flattened the curve. Now that's a fact, show me we haven't. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

As for those nations, I said major western rich nations, perhaps Australia was overlooked, but you can't put Mexico and Russia on the list unless you believe anything Putin says.


According to your link, all the European countries hit their peak of new cases 3 weeks ago. We hit ours 4 days ago. Let's make a note to reconnect in 2 weeks and again in 2 months to see how we did compared to the very small selection of nations you deem acceptable to compare us to. And since there are GOP govs that apparently know better than scientists and doctors, we will probably have a longer plateau at the peak than countries in Europe.
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3830
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:03 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
The rush to open the economy is continuing even as evidence suggest far less than 10% of the US population has had Covid 19. The next six weeks will be interesting to watch in the US as the economy is being restarted, while also watching New Zealand.


New Zealand has a handle on all their cases, yet in the US we have no ideas about asymptomatic cases, and the reopenings will be staggered, and uneven across state borders.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... w-zealand/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us ... irus-trnd/

I have maintained that the US should remain locked down until June 1, but at this point it will be opening sooner. Due to the high curve, and the number of cases, I
I expect we will reenter lockdowns by July 1 in many areas.


Don't know, but to me, it seems that if 10% of the population had already COVID19, the best way to move forward on normalcy is to get to herd immunity, in a way that doesn't overwhelm hospital capacity. A vaccine will arrive to late to avoid this. Unless we are to be kept hiding from it for 18 months.

As for New Zealand, their strategy of containment has done well, whether or not they are going to keep it, by isolating themselves from the rest of the world until a vaccine is out, its the question. They are avoiding herd immunity, which can be a bad thing for the long term.

As for your June 1st date, you are setting a one size fits all to the entire US, when there are places with not much problems with COVID.



90 % still have to get it. Herd Immunity means a lot of the herd has to die. Not overwhelming hospital capacity involves social distancing. The US will have an issue as the rush to open will spread the virus in regions that consider themselves immune, and have a low amount of hospitals per capita( RURAL).

June 1 was my target as we needed to get the virus under control and stamped out in low spread areas. That isn't going to happen, and now we will see issues.


I agree that New Zealand will see issues, but those issues also apply to low spread areas in the US.


I was listening to Sam Harris discussing this on his podcast and decisions in every day life are made with an acceptable amount of lives lost that society generally accepts. He made the comparison to speed limits and car crashes, we allow people to drive fairly fast at 100-120km/h (60-75mph) on highways knowing full well that lowering that 25% will save a lot of lives. The number of lives we are willing to spare with Covid-19 vs an open economy is still being debated. Society is essentially deciding that any preventable loss of live is largely unacceptable. Some will die but those who treatment would have saved we are trying to save close to 100%.

Hospital capacity is low precisely because we are doing social distancing and have suspended elective procedures, both have to resume at some point.

Once we have a decline in cases and can determine where the new cases are test and trace accordingly then we can control the spread enough to not overwhelm the hospital system then we move slowly to open things back up. The Canadian and Ontario government have said we have no dates for this but have released a plan.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/co ... ng-economy

What the people won't tolerate is moving of the goalposts repeatedly, as least New Zealand was honest about eradication. I do with the media would specify the amount of cases with the number of resolved. Total cases do not paint the whole picture.

Example for Ontario. Confirmed 15,381, Recovered 8,964, Deaths 951. There are only 5,466 active cases of people who are sick and the population of Ontario is 14.5 million. Granted far more with the limits on testing but the instructions are clear that if you are sick, stay home and call public health to arrange a test.

Hopefully what does come out of this is that employers start to give employees paid sick leave which actually increases productivity, taking sick time was considered taboo but not anymore as least it shouldn't be. Furthermore any remotely competent employer can figure out who is abusing sick time and who isn't.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:05 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

casinterest wrote:

90 % still have to get it. Herd Immunity means a lot of the herd has to die. Not overwhelming hospital capacity involves social distancing. The US will have an issue as the rush to open will spread the virus in regions that consider themselves immune, and have a low amount of hospitals per capita( RURAL).

June 1 was my target as we needed to get the virus under control and stamped out in low spread areas. That isn't going to happen, and now we will see issues.


I agree that New Zealand will see issues, but those issues also apply to low spread areas in the US.


People are scared like crazy, and most of us have learned how to adapt to this new reality of social distancing. We go to the grocery store all the time, and we have learned from these new rules.

We are going to do just fine. And last time I heard you make predictions, they did not materialize. We are going to be just fine with the opening in phases and avoiding getting too close. People are going to still get infected and unfortunately some will also die. This virus won't vanish from earth after June 1st.

.

What predictions didn't materialize? That if we reopen sooner the death counts will be higher? They will. That the economy will still struggle ? It will.


In the old COVID thread, I asked where is the chaos in NYC, you said based on a nurse that you knew that things are very bad. According to real data from NY, only 22% of all beds were occupied. Back then you were spreading panic based on something you heard, and predicted worse things to come:

Post 3440 old covid thread
Do you even pay attention to the numbers of sick in NYC? It is rapidly climbing. THey are rationing because they are on the edge of overflow, and the wave of the sick is still surging.


Post 3532 old covid thread

But they are in chaos. For each of your 3800 beds, there are 10 x that looking for diagnosis and every day is worse than the day before. Every day doctors or nurses are taken out of the rotation because they test positive.

Things are bad. You are just choosing to lie to yourself to make yourself feel better. if you can't project the future , why do you care about any of this ? Your day only goes so far as now .

But just in case you choose to actually stop moving your goal posts .
Read the following.


No reports of people dying because of lack of beds or ventilators in NYC. 22% occupancy. You were very much in favor of spreading panic and doomsday scenarios, as you are currently now telling us is going to happen.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:09 pm

2122M wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
We have already past the peak, we have flattened the curve. Now that's a fact, show me we haven't. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

As for those nations, I said major western rich nations, perhaps Australia was overlooked, but you can't put Mexico and Russia on the list unless you believe anything Putin says.


According to your link, all the European countries hit their peak of new cases 3 weeks ago. We hit ours 4 days ago. Let's make a note to reconnect in 2 weeks and again in 2 months to see how we did compared to the very small selection of nations you deem acceptable to compare us to. And since there are GOP govs that apparently know better than scientists and doctors, we will probably have a longer plateau at the peak than countries in Europe.


Sure, that sounds fair, lets see where we will be later on. But I think the US has done pretty well, both with hospital capacity and with social distancing. Considering the doomsday scenarios being thrown out by experts and the media.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11514
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:30 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:12 pm

StarAC17 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Don't know, but to me, it seems that if 10% of the population had already COVID19, the best way to move forward on normalcy is to get to herd immunity, in a way that doesn't overwhelm hospital capacity. A vaccine will arrive to late to avoid this. Unless we are to be kept hiding from it for 18 months.

As for New Zealand, their strategy of containment has done well, whether or not they are going to keep it, by isolating themselves from the rest of the world until a vaccine is out, its the question. They are avoiding herd immunity, which can be a bad thing for the long term.

As for your June 1st date, you are setting a one size fits all to the entire US, when there are places with not much problems with COVID.



90 % still have to get it. Herd Immunity means a lot of the herd has to die. Not overwhelming hospital capacity involves social distancing. The US will have an issue as the rush to open will spread the virus in regions that consider themselves immune, and have a low amount of hospitals per capita( RURAL).

June 1 was my target as we needed to get the virus under control and stamped out in low spread areas. That isn't going to happen, and now we will see issues.


I agree that New Zealand will see issues, but those issues also apply to low spread areas in the US.


I was listening to Sam Harris discussing this on his podcast and decisions in every day life are made with an acceptable amount of lives lost that society generally accepts. He made the comparison to speed limits and car crashes, we allow people to drive fairly fast at 100-120km/h (60-75mph) on highways knowing full well that lowering that 25% will save a lot of lives. The number of lives we are willing to spare with Covid-19 vs an open economy is still being debated. Society is essentially deciding that any preventable loss of live is largely unacceptable. Some will die but those who treatment would have saved we are trying to save close to 100%.

Hospital capacity is low precisely because we are doing social distancing and have suspended elective procedures, both have to resume at some point.

Once we have a decline in cases and can determine where the new cases are test and trace accordingly then we can control the spread enough to not overwhelm the hospital system then we move slowly to open things back up. The Canadian and Ontario government have said we have no dates for this but have released a plan.

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/co ... ng-economy

What the people won't tolerate is moving of the goalposts repeatedly, as least New Zealand was honest about eradication. I do with the media would specify the amount of cases with the number of resolved. Total cases do not paint the whole picture.

Example for Ontario. Confirmed 15,381, Recovered 8,964, Deaths 951. There are only 5,466 active cases of people who are sick and the population of Ontario is 14.5 million. Granted far more with the limits on testing but the instructions are clear that if you are sick, stay home and call public health to arrange a test.

Hopefully what does come out of this is that employers start to give employees paid sick leave which actually increases productivity, taking sick time was considered taboo but not anymore as least it shouldn't be. Furthermore any remotely competent employer can figure out who is abusing sick time and who isn't.



Where the US will have issues is where the law of unintended consequences meets the needs of those that do need and want to work.

The Younger set, single folks , and people without a lot of exposure or care of exposure to susceptible people will charge back into operation cautiously, but less so as time moves on. Within 2-3 weeks I would expect them to try to behave as before if their jobs allow for it. This will expose the cautious groupings of folks to either charge back into deeper social distancing, or force those that need their jobs to compete . Kids camps will be opened with "social distancing, but will become overwhelmed as parents rush back to work and need something for summer" Teens that really could care less will spend all summer gathering and spreading it, along with their college friends, and before you know it we have everyone back at it again, and the spread will start slowly and then exponentially hit by about July 1-15.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11514
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:16 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:



People are scared like crazy, and most of us have learned how to adapt to this new reality of social distancing. We go to the grocery store all the time, and we have learned from these new rules.

We are going to do just fine. And last time I heard you make predictions, they did not materialize. We are going to be just fine with the opening in phases and avoiding getting too close. People are going to still get infected and unfortunately some will also die. This virus won't vanish from earth after June 1st.

.

What predictions didn't materialize? That if we reopen sooner the death counts will be higher? They will. That the economy will still struggle ? It will.


In the old COVID thread, I asked where is the chaos in NYC, you said based on a nurse that you knew that things are very bad. According to real data from NY, only 22% of all beds were occupied. Back then you were spreading panic based on something you heard, and predicted worse things to come:

Post 3440 old covid thread
Do you even pay attention to the numbers of sick in NYC? It is rapidly climbing. THey are rationing because they are on the edge of overflow, and the wave of the sick is still surging.


Post 3532 old covid thread

But they are in chaos. For each of your 3800 beds, there are 10 x that looking for diagnosis and every day is worse than the day before. Every day doctors or nurses are taken out of the rotation because they test positive.

Things are bad. You are just choosing to lie to yourself to make yourself feel better. if you can't project the future , why do you care about any of this ? Your day only goes so far as now .

But just in case you choose to actually stop moving your goal posts .
Read the following.


No reports of people dying because of lack of beds or ventilators in NYC. 22% occupancy. You were very much in favor of spreading panic and doomsday scenarios, as you are currently now telling us is going to happen.



Hospitals did lack beds, and they did lack ventilators. And the cases were rising.
The only reason they didn't overflow is because elective procedures were cancelled, and alternative beds were found. . Go look with a browser at the hours worked in those hospitals by doctors and nurses, and the procedures they undertook.. I know you won't look hard because the truth clashes with your fundamental ignorance of everything going on.


My strongest hope is that you continue to pass on your ignorance on these threads and spare the workforce and company you work for from the same.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1092
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:25 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
What predictions didn't materialize? That if we reopen sooner the death counts will be higher? They will. That the economy will still struggle ? It will.


In the old COVID thread, I asked where is the chaos in NYC, you said based on a nurse that you knew that things are very bad. According to real data from NY, only 22% of all beds were occupied. Back then you were spreading panic based on something you heard, and predicted worse things to come:

Post 3440 old covid thread
Do you even pay attention to the numbers of sick in NYC? It is rapidly climbing. THey are rationing because they are on the edge of overflow, and the wave of the sick is still surging.


Post 3532 old covid thread

But they are in chaos. For each of your 3800 beds, there are 10 x that looking for diagnosis and every day is worse than the day before. Every day doctors or nurses are taken out of the rotation because they test positive.

Things are bad. You are just choosing to lie to yourself to make yourself feel better. if you can't project the future , why do you care about any of this ? Your day only goes so far as now .

But just in case you choose to actually stop moving your goal posts .
Read the following.


No reports of people dying because of lack of beds or ventilators in NYC. 22% occupancy. You were very much in favor of spreading panic and doomsday scenarios, as you are currently now telling us is going to happen.



Hospitals did lack beds, and they did lack ventilators. And the cases were rising.
The only reason they didn't overflow is because elective procedures were cancelled, and alternative beds were found. . Go look with a browser at the hours worked in those hospitals by doctors and nurses, and the procedures they undertook.. I know you won't look hard because the truth clashes with your fundamental ignorance of everything going on.


My strongest hope is that you continue to pass on your ignorance on these threads and spare the workforce and company you work for from the same.


At that time when you were spreading panic, I told you that. If you go back to that thread, I told you that efforts where being made and there wasn't going to be chaos. The hospital ship left NYC a week or more ago, they never needed the 30,000 ventilators they asked, perhaps because it was all based on panic.

If you call my ignorance not falling prey to panic, but basing myself on real data and facts, then yes I am ignorant.

Keep it going with your panic scenarios of states opening up 'too quickly'. By then I hope you do admit to making another mistake in your wild and unbased assumptions.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
User avatar
casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:33 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

In the old COVID thread, I asked where is the chaos in NYC, you said based on a nurse that you knew that things are very bad. According to real data from NY, only 22% of all beds were occupied. Back then you were spreading panic based on something you heard, and predicted worse things to come:

Post 3440 old covid thread


Post 3532 old covid thread



No reports of people dying because of lack of beds or ventilators in NYC. 22% occupancy. You were very much in favor of spreading panic and doomsday scenarios, as you are currently now telling us is going to happen.



Hospitals did lack beds, and they did lack ventilators. And the cases were rising.
The only reason they didn't overflow is because elective procedures were cancelled, and alternative beds were found. . Go look with a browser at the hours worked in those hospitals by doctors and nurses, and the procedures they undertook.. I know you won't look hard because the truth clashes with your fundamental ignorance of everything going on.


My strongest hope is that you continue to pass on your ignorance on these threads and spare the workforce and company you work for from the same.


At that time when you were spreading panic, I told you that. If you go back to that thread, I told you that efforts where being made and there wasn't going to be chaos. The hospital ship left NYC a week or more ago, they never needed the 30,000 ventilators they asked, perhaps because it was all based on panic.

If you call my ignorance not falling prey to panic, but basing myself on real data and facts, then yes I am ignorant.

Keep it going with your panic scenarios of states opening up 'too quickly'. By then I hope you do admit to making another mistake in your wild and unbased assumptions.


No, We had all those ships going because the peak wasn't know because testing wasn't being done. We were lucky that people socially distanced and that private companies closed down early into it. However you continue to pretend you weren't all excited about getting the economy open back then, and then lie some more. So my assumptions were of what would happen if people as ignorant as you ,got what they wished with an open economy with everyone getting sick.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 12293
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:51 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

I wished everyone shared your attitude. No one is forcing anyone to leave their house. You can stay shut in as long as you want. The rest of us need to get on with our lives. There's no beauty in the world sitting at home.


How unfortunate for you. Here, some drone footage of my neck of the woods in 4K:

https://youtu.be/wUJ7GGnCgYE

Now the world is beautiful again.


Sounds like major case of fallacy.

It's like reading good old Russian propaganda where people were only allowed to talk about the good and never mention bad (like it didn't exist to be more accurate) even though bad was spreading like wildfire.

Quick google and last two years didn't look like candy in that neck of the woods.. Wonder how "pretty" it will be in near future after all this job/business losses.
Words from friends that live in Cali are not as beautiful as those drone shots.
https://www.ksby.com/news/homelessness- ... identified
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbPOYRN ... d7b2kJvoCr


What a bizarre post. Surely you realize the high rents throughout the state have a similar effect on the underemployed and recently evicted regardless of location? Logic fail.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
2122M
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:56 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Hospitals did lack beds, and they did lack ventilators. And the cases were rising.
The only reason they didn't overflow is because elective procedures were cancelled, and alternative beds were found. . Go look with a browser at the hours worked in those hospitals by doctors and nurses, and the procedures they undertook.. I know you won't look hard because the truth clashes with your fundamental ignorance of everything going on.


My strongest hope is that you continue to pass on your ignorance on these threads and spare the workforce and company you work for from the same.


At that time when you were spreading panic, I told you that. If you go back to that thread, I told you that efforts where being made and there wasn't going to be chaos. The hospital ship left NYC a week or more ago, they never needed the 30,000 ventilators they asked, perhaps because it was all based on panic.

If you call my ignorance not falling prey to panic, but basing myself on real data and facts, then yes I am ignorant.

Keep it going with your panic scenarios of states opening up 'too quickly'. By then I hope you do admit to making another mistake in your wild and unbased assumptions.


No, We had all those ships going because the peak wasn't know because testing wasn't being done. We were lucky that people socially distanced and that private companies closed down early into it. However you continue to pretend you weren't all excited about getting the economy open back then, and then lie some more. So my assumptions were of what would happen if people as ignorant as you ,got what they wished with an open economy with everyone getting sick.


To add to that, in the fog of war, or fog of pandemic in this case, I would much rather our leaders err on the side of caution when it comes to my health and safety. Have you ever heard the expression 'plan for the worst but hope for the best'? Was that not a prudent way of approaching this in the early days of the pandemic?

I think that's exactly what we did and as a result of the stay at home measures and lockdowns that you find so utterly unnecessary we were able to 'only' lose 57,000 (and counting) Americans instead of the 100,000+ that we would have if no measures were taken at all.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:09 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

How unfortunate for you. Here, some drone footage of my neck of the woods in 4K:

https://youtu.be/wUJ7GGnCgYE

Now the world is beautiful again.


Sounds like major case of fallacy.

It's like reading good old Russian propaganda where people were only allowed to talk about the good and never mention bad (like it didn't exist to be more accurate) even though bad was spreading like wildfire.

Quick google and last two years didn't look like candy in that neck of the woods.. Wonder how "pretty" it will be in near future after all this job/business losses.
Words from friends that live in Cali are not as beautiful as those drone shots.
https://www.ksby.com/news/homelessness- ... identified
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbPOYRN ... d7b2kJvoCr


What a bizarre post. Surely you realize the high rents throughout the state have a similar effect on the underemployed and recently evicted regardless of location? Logic fail.


And?
All conditions are true. All of them combined paint a even grimmer image.
Logic ftw actually.
 
Chemist
Posts: 746
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:46 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:37 pm

Re: healthcare spending per capita, the US has a lower life expectancy than almost all first-world countries. So we not only spend 2x, we do that with worse lifespans.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:47 pm

According to Dr. Birx US tested 17K per 100K while South Korea 11K per 100K.
I'm trying to paste the Tweet but for some reason is not working.
 
2122M
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 6:55 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
According to Dr. Birx US tested 17K per 100K while South Korea 11K per 100K.
I'm trying to paste the Tweet but for some reason is not working.


Yea, a month too late by the looks of it. South Korea did so well because they were testing a huge number of people right from the get go. Contact tracing associated with that testing flattened the curve right off the bat. So it's all well and good that now, after a month and a half of dealing with this virus, we've got to the point where we are testing as much as the South Koreans were in February, but the response time is embarrassing and the reason why South Korea has lost 5 people per million to this virus compared to our 175.
 
art
Posts: 3432
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:02 pm

Chemist wrote:
Re: healthcare spending per capita, the US has a lower life expectancy than almost all first-world countries. So we not only spend 2x, we do that with worse lifespans.


Lives foreshortened due to a high animal fat, high sugar diet combined with excessive calorie consumption (ie eating too much)? That is not a failure of the health system, is it? I see it as people eating and drinking themselves to a prematurely early grave.
Last edited by art on Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:06 pm

art wrote:
Chemist wrote:
Re: healthcare spending per capita, the US has a lower life expectancy than almost all first-world countries. So we not only spend 2x, we do that with worse lifespans.


Lives foreshortened due to a high animal fat, high sugar diet combined with excessive calorie consumption (ie eating too much)? That is not a failure of the health system, is it?


For that reason alone keeping so many people alive while they literally destroy themselves on a daily basis probably makes US healthcare best in the world lol
 
Jalap
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:34 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
At that time when you were spreading panic, I told you that. If you go back to that thread, I told you that efforts where being made and there wasn't going to be chaos. The hospital ship left NYC a week or more ago, they never needed the 30,000 ventilators they asked, perhaps because it was all based on panic.

Fortunenately, we'll never know how many ventilators would have been needed in you had it your way 4 weeks ago.
 
Jalap
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:44 pm

PPVRA wrote:
Actually, Sweden is looking great. Overall new cases are stable, but ICU hospitalization are decreasing and so are new daily deaths. They have successfully flattened the curve without closing up shop. This all means it's probably just a matter of time before the chart you posted sees a drop in deaths/million for Sweden.

Don't jump to conclusions.
There a strong weekly trend in their reporting of cases.
Always low on Sunday and Monday. Then a daily increase till Friday. They seem to be going through that reporting cycle every week, for whatever reason.

Do compare today (695 new cases) with last Tuesday (545 new cases).

It seems to be increasing still, in Sweden. Which if, of course, only logical. But I wouldn't call it "doing great".
 
2122M
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:47 pm

Jalap wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Actually, Sweden is looking great. Overall new cases are stable, but ICU hospitalization are decreasing and so are new daily deaths. They have successfully flattened the curve without closing up shop. This all means it's probably just a matter of time before the chart you posted sees a drop in deaths/million for Sweden.

Don't jump to conclusions.
There a strong weekly trend in their reporting of cases.
Always low on Sunday and Monday. Then a daily increase till Friday. They seem to be going through that reporting cycle every week, for whatever reason.

Do compare today (695 new cases) with last Tuesday (545 new cases).

It seems to be increasing still, in Sweden. Which if, of course, only logical. But I wouldn't call it "doing great".


Also, how can there be a drop in the deaths per million? Are people going to come back to life? Are millions of people going to move to Sweden to dilute the numbers?
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8507
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:54 pm

Jalap wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Actually, Sweden is looking great. Overall new cases are stable, but ICU hospitalization are decreasing and so are new daily deaths. They have successfully flattened the curve without closing up shop. This all means it's probably just a matter of time before the chart you posted sees a drop in deaths/million for Sweden.

Don't jump to conclusions.
There a strong weekly trend in their reporting of cases.
Always low on Sunday and Monday. Then a daily increase till Friday. They seem to be going through that reporting cycle every week, for whatever reason.

Do compare today (695 new cases) with last Tuesday (545 new cases).

It seems to be increasing still, in Sweden. Which if, of course, only logical. But I wouldn't call it "doing great".


I looked at daily variation, it does jump around a bit, but it’s been roughly the same variation for most of April. The chart showing total cases also rises linearly and mostly steadily. Similar story with ICU hospitalizations, except those actually show a small drop recently.

Edit: the hospitalization number is better, because it doesn’t depend on changes in testing availability.
Last edited by PPVRA on Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8507
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:58 pm

2122M wrote:
Jalap wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Actually, Sweden is looking great. Overall new cases are stable, but ICU hospitalization are decreasing and so are new daily deaths. They have successfully flattened the curve without closing up shop. This all means it's probably just a matter of time before the chart you posted sees a drop in deaths/million for Sweden.

Don't jump to conclusions.
There a strong weekly trend in their reporting of cases.
Always low on Sunday and Monday. Then a daily increase till Friday. They seem to be going through that reporting cycle every week, for whatever reason.

Do compare today (695 new cases) with last Tuesday (545 new cases).

It seems to be increasing still, in Sweden. Which if, of course, only logical. But I wouldn't call it "doing great".


Also, how can there be a drop in the deaths per million? Are people going to come back to life? Are millions of people going to move to Sweden to dilute the numbers?


Total deaths won’t decrease. But deaths/millions can by changes in the numerator and denominator. The denominator is accumulating numbers much faster, at 500-600 per day, while the numerator (deaths per day) has fallen substantially and is only accumulating a couple of dozens per day.

This number can change until the pandemic is over. At that point, “all the numbers are in”. Which is why the possibility of Sweden ending up with the exact same death rate as other countries exist.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
2122M
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:10 pm

PPVRA wrote:
2122M wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Don't jump to conclusions.
There a strong weekly trend in their reporting of cases.
Always low on Sunday and Monday. Then a daily increase till Friday. They seem to be going through that reporting cycle every week, for whatever reason.

Do compare today (695 new cases) with last Tuesday (545 new cases).

It seems to be increasing still, in Sweden. Which if, of course, only logical. But I wouldn't call it "doing great".


Also, how can there be a drop in the deaths per million? Are people going to come back to life? Are millions of people going to move to Sweden to dilute the numbers?


Total deaths won’t decrease. But deaths/millions can by changes in the numerator and denominator. The denominator is accumulating numbers much faster, at 500-600 per day, while the numerator (deaths per day) has fallen substantially and is only accumulating a couple of dozens per day.

This number can change until the pandemic is over. At that point, “all the numbers are in”. Which is why the possibility of Sweden ending up with the exact same death rate as other countries exist.


We all know how fractions work, but in this case, the denominator is simply the population of Sweden. How is that 'accumulating' at 500-600 per day. I promise you 500-600 people a day are not moving to Sweden in the middle of a pandemic. The only number in the fraction that can go up is the numerator, or number of deaths.

Also, all the numbers are not in although they are slowing in Europe. And Sweden is performing terribly compared to their Nordic neighbors.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:17 pm

2122M wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
2122M wrote:

Also, how can there be a drop in the deaths per million? Are people going to come back to life? Are millions of people going to move to Sweden to dilute the numbers?


Total deaths won’t decrease. But deaths/millions can by changes in the numerator and denominator. The denominator is accumulating numbers much faster, at 500-600 per day, while the numerator (deaths per day) has fallen substantially and is only accumulating a couple of dozens per day.

This number can change until the pandemic is over. At that point, “all the numbers are in”. Which is why the possibility of Sweden ending up with the exact same death rate as other countries exist.


We all know how fractions work, but in this case, the denominator is simply the population of Sweden. How is that 'accumulating' at 500-600 per day. I promise you 500-600 people a day are not moving to Sweden in the middle of a pandemic. The only number in the fraction that can go up is the numerator, or number of deaths.

Also, all the numbers are not in although they are slowing in Europe. And Sweden is performing terribly compared to their Nordic neighbors.


Short term should be the keyword here.
We will see how they fare a year from now.
 
2122M
Posts: 1317
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:22 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
2122M wrote:
PPVRA wrote:

Total deaths won’t decrease. But deaths/millions can by changes in the numerator and denominator. The denominator is accumulating numbers much faster, at 500-600 per day, while the numerator (deaths per day) has fallen substantially and is only accumulating a couple of dozens per day.

This number can change until the pandemic is over. At that point, “all the numbers are in”. Which is why the possibility of Sweden ending up with the exact same death rate as other countries exist.


We all know how fractions work, but in this case, the denominator is simply the population of Sweden. How is that 'accumulating' at 500-600 per day. I promise you 500-600 people a day are not moving to Sweden in the middle of a pandemic. The only number in the fraction that can go up is the numerator, or number of deaths.

Also, all the numbers are not in although they are slowing in Europe. And Sweden is performing terribly compared to their Nordic neighbors.


Short term should be the keyword here.
We will see how they fare a year from now.


So we've covered fractions and math, now lets look at grammar. I said, Sweden is performing terribly. That's using the present tense, meaning as of right now, Sweden's fatality and infection rate is substantially higher than Denmark, Norway, and Finland.

If you want to speculate about the future of coronavirus in northern Europe, go for it. My crystal ball is in the shop at the moment, so I have no idea what the future holds. I suspect you have no idea either.
 
Jalap
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:24 pm

art wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
An interesting controversy is brewing over Youtube removing the interview of Dr. Erickson shortly after posting it, although it gathered several million views before being taken down.

It is still available here, and is well worth a watch:

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavir ... om-youtube


Thanks for the link. I agree, well worth a watch.

Albeit not based on random testing positive infection results, the doctors' projections and analyses are grounded on data. I think this is the clearest assessment of the penetration of the virus and its consequences so far. It was also interesting to note the danger of depression of the immune system resulting from people being subject to reduced viral and bacterial exposure.

If the doctors are right in their assertion that reduced exposure to antigens reduces the capacity of the immune system to deal with those antigens (and I believe that has been accepted as fact for many years), then 'sheltering in place' and increased disinfection of that place should result in a higher prevalence of infectious disease once restrictions are ended. That would mean a second wave of infection more penetrative in the population than the first.

I think the argument for confining people with multiple repercussions - on standards of living, education, mental well being, levels of crime (eg domestic abuse, child abuse), suicide, alcohol consumption et al - is becoming weaker and weaker.

While I strongly supported draconian controls being imposed while there were few data on which to make educated decisions about what to do about this new virus, there is now a wealth of data. Measures to contend with the virus should be altered accordingly IMO.

One thing we do know is how fast the virus spreads and how many it kills if there aren't any decent measures. Just look at the curve during the 1st week of confinement. This alone justifies the confinement measures in places that had a lot of virus already.
I agree that it shouldn't last too long. Yet it doesn't weaken the case for the initial confinement, at least in places that were late to react.

Governments worldwide are now searching for a balance. Live with the virus, keep it from not putting a too big burden on health care. This while allowing enough freedom for the mental well being of the citizens and economical viability of enterprises. It won't be total confinement, but it also won't be pre-covid freedom either.
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8507
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:27 pm

2122M wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
2122M wrote:

Also, how can there be a drop in the deaths per million? Are people going to come back to life? Are millions of people going to move to Sweden to dilute the numbers?


Total deaths won’t decrease. But deaths/millions can by changes in the numerator and denominator. The denominator is accumulating numbers much faster, at 500-600 per day, while the numerator (deaths per day) has fallen substantially and is only accumulating a couple of dozens per day.

This number can change until the pandemic is over. At that point, “all the numbers are in”. Which is why the possibility of Sweden ending up with the exact same death rate as other countries exist.


We all know how fractions work, but in this case, the denominator is simply the population of Sweden. How is that 'accumulating' at 500-600 per day. I promise you 500-600 people a day are not moving to Sweden in the middle of a pandemic. The only number in the fraction that can go up is the numerator, or number of deaths.

Also, all the numbers are not in although they are slowing in Europe. And Sweden is performing terribly compared to their Nordic neighbors.


For case fatality, the denominator is positive diagnosis not total population. This is what the chart posted above shows. They extrapolated those numbers to per million.

Sweden is doing just fine and heading in the right direction. By permitting a faster, controlled spread, Sweden is likely closer to the end of the pandemic than their neighbors. Hence why not all numbers look as good as, say, Denmark.... for now, anyways.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat

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