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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:04 am
by Olddog
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'd say a good 50% of drivers in the US should never have received a license. In Florida we have people 95 and over still driving. They are dangerous and far more of a threat than a healthy person spreading germs. Why is one ok but not the other?


How do you dare to suggest to infringe the right to drive ?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:04 am
by Jalap
Olddog wrote:
Jalap wrote:
I have hard time to believe it. 26% is 2,6 million people infected.
Sweden has about the same population as Belgium. In Belgium, we have more than 2x the amount of confirmed infections. We have 3x the amount of deaths. Yet a recent study showed only 3% with anibodies.

Yes, we test a lot more than Sweden and we count confirmed PLUS assumed deaths. And the 3% study is based on research that's a few weeks old. Current number would be closer to 4%.

So, the Belgian numbers are with 400.000 infections.
The Swedish numbers, far lower than the Belgian, with 2,6 million infections.

Something doesn't add up.


Maybe the fact that the population density is Sweden 23 against Belgium 376 can be a good reason ?

Population density doesn’t exlpain why an assumed 2,6 million infections would result in less deaths than 400.000.
If anything, population density is an extra reason to doubt that number of 26% with antibodies.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:27 am
by dtw2hyd
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'd say a good 50% of drivers in the US should never have received a license. In Florida we have people 95 and over still driving. They are dangerous and far more of a threat than a healthy person spreading germs. Why is one ok but not the other?


Because medical science figured out how to fix you up if you were to hit by 95 year old Florida driver. Few titanium rods, bolts and prosthetics you are good to go.

When science figures out to fix COVID patients it will be the same.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:39 am
by TTailedTiger
dtw2hyd wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'd say a good 50% of drivers in the US should never have received a license. In Florida we have people 95 and over still driving. They are dangerous and far more of a threat than a healthy person spreading germs. Why is one ok but not the other?


Because medical science figured out how to fix you up if you were to hit by 95 year old Florida driver. Few titanium rods, bolts and prosthetics you are good to go.

When science figures out to fix COVID patients it will be the same.


Are you not aware that something like 98% of coronavirus patients make a full recovery? We could only wish in our wildest dreams that car accidents were that survivable.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:37 pm
by FGITD
TTailedTiger wrote:

So keep your hands off of my body and rights.


where do you stand on abortion, out of curiosity?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:53 pm
by Francoflier
TTailedTiger wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'd say a good 50% of drivers in the US should never have received a license. In Florida we have people 95 and over still driving. They are dangerous and far more of a threat than a healthy person spreading germs. Why is one ok but not the other?


Because medical science figured out how to fix you up if you were to hit by 95 year old Florida driver. Few titanium rods, bolts and prosthetics you are good to go.

When science figures out to fix COVID patients it will be the same.


Are you not aware that something like 98% of coronavirus patients make a full recovery? We could only wish in our wildest dreams that car accidents were that survivable.


They are.

Over 99% of people survive car accidents.

More than 38,000 people die every year in crashes on U.S. roadways. The U.S. traffic fatality rate is 12.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.
An additional 4.4 million are injured seriously enough to require medical attention.


https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/

Your false equivalency does bring up an interesting comparison however.
COVID is a bit like driving. It is inherently dangerous and creates deaths. Driving is however crucial to keep our society going. So we have found ways to live with it. We have created a whole bunch of rules around car safety, from how they're built to how they should or shouldn't be driven, which have managed to bring the mortality to a level that appears to be accepted by society.

This outbreak is the same. Its mortality rate is so far unpalatable to society and is scaring everyone. The problem is that we can't just stop society as a whole. We need to go on with our lives.
For this, just like for driving, we need to set a set of rules that can potentially reduce the mortality rate to something that would be more 'acceptable', all the while consciously acknowledging that there is an inherent risk to doing anything in life.
This is why rules need to be set and people should be asked to cooperate so we can move get out of our holes and move on with life.

Fortunately, COVID is a temporary issue in nature. It will eventually fade away, either when enough immunity has been built in the population, or when we find a vaccine. Probably a combination of both.
Unfortunately, while it took decades to make driving safer, we only have weeks or months to come up with a way of coexisting with the disease. The answers are out there. We just need to emulate them...

...but they entail that everyone should either make an effort and follow the rules. That's what living in a society is about.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:58 pm
by Aaron747
Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Because medical science figured out how to fix you up if you were to hit by 95 year old Florida driver. Few titanium rods, bolts and prosthetics you are good to go.

When science figures out to fix COVID patients it will be the same.


Are you not aware that something like 98% of coronavirus patients make a full recovery? We could only wish in our wildest dreams that car accidents were that survivable.


They are.

Over 99% of people survive car accidents.

More than 38,000 people die every year in crashes on U.S. roadways. The U.S. traffic fatality rate is 12.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.
An additional 4.4 million are injured seriously enough to require medical attention.


https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/

Your false equivalency does bring up an interesting comparison however.
COVID is a bit like driving. It is inherently dangerous and creates deaths. Driving is however crucial to keep our society going. So we have found ways to live with it. We have created a whole bunch of rules around car safety, from how they're built to how they should or shouldn't be driven, which have managed to bring the mortality to a level that appears to be accepted by society.

This outbreak is the same. Its mortality rate is so far unpalatable to society and is scaring everyone. The problem is that we can't just stop society as a whole. We need to go on with our lives.
For this, just like for driving, we need to set a set of rules that can potentially reduce the mortality rate to something that would be more 'acceptable', all the while consciously acknowledging that there is an inherent risk to doing anything in life.
This is why rules need to be set and people should be asked to cooperate so we can move get out of our holes and move on with life.

Fortunately, COVID is a temporary issue in nature. It will eventually fade away, either when enough immunity has been built in the population, or when we find a vaccine. Probably a combination of both.
Unfortunately, while it took decades to make driving safer, we only have weeks or months to come up with a way of coexisting with the disease. The answers are out there. We just need to emulate them...

...but they entail that everyone should either make an effort and follow the rules. That's what living in a society is about.


Additionally, those rules for driving were born out of accident analysis and a scientific approach to reasoned expectations of probability and improved vehicle design. People don't reject those things out of hand simply because they feel the conclusions are inconvenient, which is what TTT is doing here.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:11 pm
by TTailedTiger
Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

Because medical science figured out how to fix you up if you were to hit by 95 year old Florida driver. Few titanium rods, bolts and prosthetics you are good to go.

When science figures out to fix COVID patients it will be the same.


Are you not aware that something like 98% of coronavirus patients make a full recovery? We could only wish in our wildest dreams that car accidents were that survivable.


They are.

Over 99% of people survive car accidents.

More than 38,000 people die every year in crashes on U.S. roadways. The U.S. traffic fatality rate is 12.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.
An additional 4.4 million are injured seriously enough to require medical attention.


https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/

Your false equivalency does bring up an interesting comparison however.
COVID is a bit like driving. It is inherently dangerous and creates deaths. Driving is however crucial to keep our society going. So we have found ways to live with it. We have created a whole bunch of rules around car safety, from how they're built to how they should or shouldn't be driven, which have managed to bring the mortality to a level that appears to be accepted by society.

This outbreak is the same. Its mortality rate is so far unpalatable to society and is scaring everyone. The problem is that we can't just stop society as a whole. We need to go on with our lives.
For this, just like for driving, we need to set a set of rules that can potentially reduce the mortality rate to something that would be more 'acceptable', all the while consciously acknowledging that there is an inherent risk to doing anything in life.
This is why rules need to be set and people should be asked to cooperate so we can move get out of our holes and move on with life.

Fortunately, COVID is a temporary issue in nature. It will eventually fade away, either when enough immunity has been built in the population, or when we find a vaccine. Probably a combination of both.
Unfortunately, while it took decades to make driving safer, we only have weeks or months to come up with a way of coexisting with the disease. The answers are out there. We just need to emulate them...

...but they entail that everyone should either make an effort and follow the rules. That's what living in a society is about.


We won't have a society thanks to people like you who want everything shut down until a vaccine is ready.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:18 pm
by dtw2hyd
TTailedTiger wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
I'd say a good 50% of drivers in the US should never have received a license. In Florida we have people 95 and over still driving. They are dangerous and far more of a threat than a healthy person spreading germs. Why is one ok but not the other?


Because medical science figured out how to fix you up if you were to hit by 95 year old Florida driver. Few titanium rods, bolts and prosthetics you are good to go.

When science figures out to fix COVID patients it will be the same.


Are you not aware that something like 98% of coronavirus patients make a full recovery? We could only wish in our wildest dreams that car accidents were that survivable.


I am not aware of the 98% survival, neither did you. We have only 3 months anecdotal data, not enough to make any scientific judgement.

We have decades of vehicle accident data, something we can depend on.

I have same issue with HCQ (vs) Remdesivir. We have 80 years of data on HCQ on malaria and Lupus patients. We know how it kills or saves. We have very little data on Remdesivir. Both are on clinical trails for COVID-19. Both have failed tests. But astroturfer wants the world to start believing one is better over other.

New data on Gilead’s remdesivir, released by accident, show no benefit for coronavirus patients. Company still sees reason for hope

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/dat ... -patients/

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:54 pm
by L410Turbolet
dtw2hyd wrote:

New data on Gilead’s remdesivir, released by accident, show no benefit for coronavirus patients. Company still sees reason for hope

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/dat ... -patients/


Chinese data... is this science or politics? We can only guess.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:01 pm
by Francoflier
TTailedTiger wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Are you not aware that something like 98% of coronavirus patients make a full recovery? We could only wish in our wildest dreams that car accidents were that survivable.


They are.

Over 99% of people survive car accidents.

More than 38,000 people die every year in crashes on U.S. roadways. The U.S. traffic fatality rate is 12.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants.
An additional 4.4 million are injured seriously enough to require medical attention.


https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/

Your false equivalency does bring up an interesting comparison however.
COVID is a bit like driving. It is inherently dangerous and creates deaths. Driving is however crucial to keep our society going. So we have found ways to live with it. We have created a whole bunch of rules around car safety, from how they're built to how they should or shouldn't be driven, which have managed to bring the mortality to a level that appears to be accepted by society.

This outbreak is the same. Its mortality rate is so far unpalatable to society and is scaring everyone. The problem is that we can't just stop society as a whole. We need to go on with our lives.
For this, just like for driving, we need to set a set of rules that can potentially reduce the mortality rate to something that would be more 'acceptable', all the while consciously acknowledging that there is an inherent risk to doing anything in life.
This is why rules need to be set and people should be asked to cooperate so we can move get out of our holes and move on with life.

Fortunately, COVID is a temporary issue in nature. It will eventually fade away, either when enough immunity has been built in the population, or when we find a vaccine. Probably a combination of both.
Unfortunately, while it took decades to make driving safer, we only have weeks or months to come up with a way of coexisting with the disease. The answers are out there. We just need to emulate them...

...but they entail that everyone should either make an effort and follow the rules. That's what living in a society is about.


We won't have a society thanks to people like you who want everything shut down until a vaccine is ready.


If you bothered to read any of my several posts, you'd know that I am very much against keeping everything shut down any longer than necessary for the healthcare system to cope, and then find ways to let people run their lives but with enough restrictions to keep the infection rate below that threshold.
I have also detailed what some of these restrictions should be, including mass adoption of face masks in public, which you are against 'because freedom' or whatever and somehow brought us here...

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:20 pm
by winginit
seahawk wrote:
The suicides caused by the high unemployment of a global economic crash will kill more than the virus ever could. Get back to work!


Again, Kemp has moved to get people back to work in Georgia, and the President, who he is an ardent supporter of, wrecked him for it (again today!)

So who is right? State your claim.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:05 pm
by dtw2hyd
L410Turbolet wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

New data on Gilead’s remdesivir, released by accident, show no benefit for coronavirus patients. Company still sees reason for hope

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/dat ... -patients/


Chinese data... is this science or politics? We can only guess.


Another study, headline says looks promising

https://www.biospace.com/article/data-f ... promising/

With a fine print.
That being said, about 25% of patients receiving it have severe side effects, including multiple-organ dysfunction syndrome, septic shock, acute kidney injury and low blood pressure. Another 23% demonstrated evidence of liver damage on lab tests.


That is 58% with serious issues.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:07 pm
by olle
Jalap wrote:
olle wrote:
Revised number are now 26%. Some wrong input gave to high numbers.

I have hard time to believe it. 26% is 2,6 million people infected.
Sweden has about the same population as Belgium. In Belgium, we have more than 2x the amount of confirmed infections. We have 3x the amount of deaths. Yet a recent study showed only 3% with anibodies.

Yes, we test a lot more than Sweden and we count confirmed PLUS assumed deaths. And the 3% study is based on research that's a few weeks old. Current number would be closer to 4%.

So, the Belgian numbers are with 400.000 infections.
The Swedish numbers, far lower than the Belgian, with 2,6 million infections.

Something doesn't add up.


Actually not ;-) it is 26% of Stockholm population -> 2,5 million people and 650 000 infected. Stockholm stands today for a major part of infected and death.

the rest of the country is much less.

What is interesting is that people entering intensive care have 80% survival rate compared to 50% in most other countries.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 6:20 pm
by art
olle wrote:
What is interesting is that people entering intensive care have 80% survival rate compared to 50% in most other countries.


Yes, that is interesting.

People taken to intensive care earlier in Sweden than elsewhere?
Better equipped/staffed intensive care units?
Something genetic involved?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:10 pm
by N212R
TTailedTiger wrote:
Are you not aware that something like 98% of coronavirus patients make a full recovery?


No, I'm not aware of that because it isn't true.

Much too early in the pandemic cycle for that conclusion. Much too often we read misleading statements.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:41 pm
by PPVRA
Olle,

I’ve heard Sweden has nursing homes that are on average larger than Norway’s, and that this is believed to also have contributed to a higher death count in Sweden.

Can you verify this information? Thanks!

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:59 pm
by winginit
TTailedTiger wrote:
Are you not aware that something like 98% of coronavirus patients make a full recovery?


Are you not aware that what you've said there is, you know, a lie?

Source

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:26 pm
by Waterbomber2
Trump is talking too much; people are starting to get fed up of him.
His injecting desinfectant comment was foolish.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TXWW6R2fgc

Also, one day he says "we need to go back to work", and the next day he slams Georgia's governor for trying to open up some salons too soon.
So which one is it?

After going through a few waves of this, countless lives lost unnecessarily, trillions of dollars printed every week, they're going to realise that eradication is the only quick and cheap solution to end this.
2 months of a full lockdown and we can go back to our normal lives. If I can come up with this, I'm pretty sure that the real experts can too.

So why do politicians insist on reopening the economy when the US (and other countries) is not even past its peak?
30.000 new cases, 2000 new body bags everyday.
Everyday we are living a 9/11 and yet, instead of trying to stop this, they're trying to make it worse.
They even have people on here trying to promote this.

Something is fishy, very fishy.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:49 pm
by PPVRA
winginit wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Are you not aware that something like 98% of coronavirus patients make a full recovery?


Are you not aware that what you've said there is, you know, a lie?

Source


That’s not a reliable source, winginit. There are numerous problems with statistics at the moment and they’ve all been discussed here.

I’m not agreeing with you nor with the previous poster. But you cannot rely solely on those numbers right now because nobody can. Even the CDC and John Hopkins don’t have all the numbers necessary right now.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:13 pm
by zkojq
Image



PixelPilot wrote:
I mean can't get any dumber than believing he and he alone is f*** up during this time.


That is why everyone on the hard right is trying to make everything about China to distract from Donnie doing an incompetent job, right?

Tugger wrote:
But you have people willingly suspending their disbelief and choosing to believe, to accept information without corroboration from fully independent sources. People don't want to use their minds sometimes they just want to be lazy and believe and not care for much else.


It's just so sad to watch.

Aesma wrote:
Several countries might actually do this sooner, president Macron has simply decided to provide a plan for the "after" while announcing 4 more weeks of lockdown. Other leaders have done similar things, providing timetables to their citizenry.


It's the smart thing to do. The dates for "after" can always be pushed back if things don't get under control as quick as expected.

dragon-wings wrote:
This virus has effect my family. My father's cousin died today from the virus. :crying:


I'm really sorry to hear that and sad that he nodoubt won't get much of a funeral due to lockdown.


TTailedTiger wrote:
If you think people are going to wear masks all the time from here on out, you are wrong. I can't think of anything more Orwellian.


Really?


scbriml wrote:
They’ll be the first to complain when they buy a 5G phone and it doesn’t work. :sarcastic:


:rotfl:


tommy1808 wrote:
I am quite surprised we havent heard him rant about that orwellian dystopia that in many, if not by far most, places people are required to leave the house dressed, despite running around naked not posing a thread to anyone.


:rotfl: Is he aware that many schools require students to wear uniforms? I mean that's basically the same as the Hitler Youth, right?

dtw2hyd wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
If you think people are going to wear masks all the time from here on out, you are wrong. I can't think of anything more Orwellian. We don't even make people wear helmets in Florida. Your reverence for command and control economies and societies is frightening.


No masks, no lock-down but no one should get infected or die. I think we are reaching the end of blame game,

So far we have blamed Bats, Bat eating people, China, Wuhan lab, WHO, CDC, FDA, Fauci, Trump, Pence, Jared, Governors, Hospitals, Insurance companies, 3M, Daigou, PLA, minorities, religious cults.

What happened to personal responsibility?


Don't forget blaming Chuck Schumer!


N757ST wrote:
You really think you’ve found everyone? What about the 50% that are asymptomatic? What about the cases that present as GI issues? What about the extremely mild cases that present as a minor cold? If you’ve found everyone why is your country on indefinite lockdown?


Exactly, it seems an astoundingly arrogant claim to make.

WarRI1 wrote:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/skbaer/coronavirus-trump-light-disinfectants

It cannot get any better than this folks. Rambling on as usual.


It's amazing. The president is literally one of the dumbest people in america. I think most of his supporters aren't quite dumb enough to try this but it wouldn't surprise me at all if some do. What a time to be alive!


tootallsd wrote:
Its a matter of hours until someone tries it. Their kids are eating Tide pods, so why not inject clorox.

:checkmark:


Francoflier wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
It's my perception that some are enjoying the misery and the increase in government control that the virus brings. As a libertarian I truly believe in my body my choice. I support a woman's right to choose up to the point of viability, I support all drug use, and I support the right to kill yourself. I'm not a hypocrite. Don't tell me that I have to wear a mask when I'm not sick. If I want to take the risk then that's my choice. I do not want the US looking like communist China has for decades with everyone wearing masks. It creates a very cold and impersonal society. China seems devoid of all love, human contact, and emotion.


The face mask is not meant to protect yourself, it is meant to protect others.

Do your libertarian views allow for putting others in danger because you want to do as you please?


Liberterianism 101 is to care about noone other than one's self and to completely ignore negative externalities. :lol:

Aaron747 wrote:
Additionally, those rules for driving were born out of accident analysis and a scientific approach to reasoned expectations of probability and improved vehicle design. People don't reject those things out of hand simply because they feel the conclusions are inconvenient, which is what TTT is doing here.


How dare the government infringe on my right to drive a car with no airbags, crumple-zones, seatbelts nor ABS!

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:24 pm
by olle
PPVRA wrote:
Olle,

I’ve heard Sweden has nursing homes that are on average larger than Norway’s, and that this is believed to also have contributed to a higher death count in Sweden.

Can you verify this information? Thanks!


Swedish government just asks the same qusetion;

In the article below they say the following;

Senior Professor: Many will die unnecessarily
Profile picture John Granlund
of
John Granlund

PUBLISHED: TOR 09 APR 2020
UPDATED: TOR 09 APR 2020
NEWS
The corona center is spreading rapidly in Swedish elderly care.

Now there is an alarm that the death toll may be so high among the elderly that Swedish life expectancy will fall sharply.

- We will see sad numbers in the coming weeks. And many will die unnecessarily, says senior professor and physician Yngve Gustafson.


The death toll on Swedish elderly residents is growing - as many as 40 percent of all over 70 who have so far died in the suites of covid-19 in Stockholm have lived in elderly homes.

At the same time, the Public Health Agency is confused about the causes and it is not yet complete with the analysis of why the infection spreads so rapidly on elderly homes.

- It will take a while. It is a complex business and there are many different ways in between these people who live there, says state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell.

"Very sorry"
In Stockholm, the death rate is even worse, with a recorded infection of 121 out of 313 elderly homes - and a death rate of 159 people, according to figures requested by Aftonbladet from the region.

Yngve Gustafson, senior professor of geriatrics at Umeå University, is deeply concerned about the development.

- I get very, very sad. Many people lose many lives. At the same time, I'm not surprised. We will see infinitely worse figures in the coming weeks, says Yngve Gustafson, who has been researching elder care for several decades.

He draws parallels to the Spanish disease that graced 1918-1920 and believes that the average life expectancy in Sweden will decline as the coronavirus advances through society.

- We will be able to see a substantial decline in the average life expectancy in Sweden in 2020, he says.

According to the Public Health Authority, the spread of infection in Swedish homes for elderly people is worse than in neighboring countries such as Norway.

The professor is particularly critical of the triage carried out by the health care, ie thinning based on survival chances, which has the consequence that elderly coronas infected often do not receive hospital care. Instead, they are cared for at their elderly homes or at home.



https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/pL ... o-i-onodan


My reaction is that in Norway the nursery homes concentrates more on health care, while in Sweden the objective has been to give as much home style in order o increase quality of life. My grandmother lived in one place the last few years in her life and she had her own apartment and had common areas for eating etc. Great for living but not adjusted to give to much health care.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:33 pm
by olle
art wrote:
olle wrote:
What is interesting is that people entering intensive care have 80% survival rate compared to 50% in most other countries.


Yes, that is interesting.

People taken to intensive care earlier in Sweden than elsewhere?
Better equipped/staffed intensive care units?
Something genetic involved?


https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/zG ... -hoppfullt


80 percent survive intensive care at Karolinska: "Hopeful"
Profile picture Anna Sjögren
of
Anna Sjögren

PUBLISHED: MONTH 13 APR 2020
UPDATED: US APR 15, 2020
NEWS
International studies show that half of the coronary patients who are intensive care in respirators die.

At the Karolinska University Hospital, new figures show instead that the majority of patients - 80 percent - survive.

"This gives us hope in healthcare and society as a whole," says physician David Konrad.

Those who become seriously ill in covid-19 are often affected by severe pneumonia and lung failure. Often they are intensively cared for with a respirator to help with oxygenation. But the treatment is tough for the body and several studies show that patients in many cases do not.
The largest study to date, conducted in the UK of 3,883 patients, showed that half of the patients survived the treatment. A smaller study from Washington in the US also showed that the chance of survival was around 50 percent.
Breaking the trend
Karolinska University Hospital, where a quarter of the country's intensive care covid patients are admitted, is against the gloomy trend. Here, preliminary figures show that as many as 80 percent of those discharged have survived intensive care in respirators, SVT could report on Sunday. Of 62 patients, 48 ​​survived and 14 died.

- We have not seen this kind of positive figures to survive intensive care that we are seeing now. We were worried that we would end up with a survival rate of between 10 and 25 percent based on the reports we saw from other countries. It gives us hope in healthcare and the whole community, says David Konrad, chief physician at IVA, to Aftonbladet.

How to assess which patients become relevant for intensive care and when, during the course of the disease, care is used are factors that can explain the results of different countries.


- We don't know today, but there could be possible explanations. We look closely to see if you have reasonable prospects for coping with intensive care and recovery. If we make the assessment that the patient cannot benefit from the care we can refrain from offering it. We also work closely with infectious doctors and we do not delay in setting up this treatment so that patients receive care before the disease is too long.

"We will be strengthened"
According to the British study, the risk of dying increases the longer a patient is connected to a respirator. Here, too, the early figures from Karolinska show hopeful results: on average, a patient is on intensive care for just over a week.

- It's shorter than we've heard from other parts of the world, says David Konrad.

But it is too early to draw any certain conclusions from the results that are based on a small basis.

- Does this mean that we have succeeded better than other countries? We don't know yet. We will be strengthened by that, but we need at least another month to draw some certain conclusions.

Fewer new patients
Intensive care units at the hospital have in recent weeks had a steady influx of about six to twelve patients per day, with peaks of 20 patients some days. Here too, the hospital is beginning to see a trend break.

- We were worried that we would see a massive increase in cases last weekend or this week. But we see a flare-up of patients in intensive care. We believe that people have listened to the authorities' recommendations and that is what we are seeing the result of now.

At present, 177 patients are being cared for at Karolinska's intensive care unit. If needed, another 39 seats can be opened.

But David Konrad hopes that as few of them as possible will be needed and comes with a call to the public:

- If you want to help, you should continue to adhere to the recommendations of the Public Health Authority. Otherwise, we will be flushed out by patients and then we will not be able to handle this.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2020 11:50 pm
by Jalap
olle wrote:
Actually not ;-) it is 26% of Stockholm population -> 2,5 million people and 650 000 infected. Stockholm stands today for a major part of infected and death.

Thanks for that clarification.

It still leaves me puzzled though.

A lot of IF's in my reasoning, but one has to make assumptions to be able to get an idea...

Say, Belgium has 8.000 deaths now. We've been counting everybody for a while, but didn't from the start. So say there's 8000 deaths because of covid today in Belgium.
Say in Belgium 4% of population is infected. This is a big IF, because we only have a small scale study. Still, I hear that in most European countries, it's about 3 to 5% people infected. So 4% is a reasonable guess.

8000 deaths with 400.000 infections -> death rate is 2%.

With a death rate of 2%, for the Stockholm metropolitan area and 650.000 infected, expected deaths would be 13.000.
It isn't 13.000 by far in Stockholm. Can't imagine it's more than 3.000.

There surely are many factors that can contribute to that 10.000 difference. Like treatments better in Stockholm than in Belgium, far less elderly infected, a less dangerous strain of the virus, ... . It could also be that the actual number of infections in Belgium is far higher than 4%. If it is 12%, death rate would of the virus would be only 0,5%.

So there are many unknowns. Yet I do remain very sceptical of 26% of people with antibodies in Stockholm. Because all the estimations would need to be off in the right directions to make it plausible.

Last possible cause is that this 26% is a modelled estimation of infections today. In this case, the mortalities because of that 26% won't be visible for another 3 to 4 weeks.

Conclusion probably is that only time will tell.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:20 am
by casinterest
Well today was an argument against opening up the economies again

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

103,000 + new cases. Highest yet world wide.
37,000+ in the USA Highest yet in the USA.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:23 am
by Eyad89
Jalap wrote:

There surely are many factors that can contribute to that 10.000 difference. Like treatments better in Stockholm than in Belgium,



When it comes to to COVID, all developed countries have pretty much the same capabilities of medical treatment. No one is better the others. There is no known method of treating COVID other than let the immune system beat it. So what do they do in the ICU? if the lungs failed for example, they would simply set the patient on a ventilator and wait until the immune system develops enough antibodies or he/she simply dies. ICUs don’t treat COVID, they merely manage the complications that come with it and wait for the body’s immune system to do something.

All the steps and procedures of dealing with organ failures are pretty much the same in all developed countries and their medical equipment is the same (provided they are not overloaded). So don’t expect the treatment in the US is different than one you might get in Sweden, France, Italy, or Belgium.


Why is this study in Sweden showing 80% success rate? Probably they are accepting milder cases into ICU that have a better chance of success. Believe me, if they know of a better way of treating COVID, they would have passed that knowledge to other countries and they would have had the same success.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:46 am
by SheikhDjibouti
olle wrote:
In Stockholm, the death rate is even worse, with a recorded infection of 121 out of 313 elderly homes - and a death rate of 159 people, according to figures requested by Aftonbladet from the region.

The perception is that once Covid-19 finds it's way into a care home, it will knock the residents down like dominoes.

And yet your numbers show infection in 121 elderly homes, resulting in 159 deaths, or just 1.3 deaths per home.

This is a world away from multiple deaths in elderly homes elsewhere, starting right back with the 23 deaths in Kirkland, Washington [state] at the end of February/early March.

Or the 24 deaths in one care home in Staffordshire, England.
(plus there are many other examples)

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e1.htm
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-s ... e-52297998

Another case of Sweden's numbers not reflecting experience elsewhere on the planet? :scratchchin:

Retailer charged with hoarding and gauging.

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:59 am
by WarRI1
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/0 ... /24091911/

Nice people out there. 7 cent face masks going for 1 dollar, nice profit.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:37 am
by rfields5421
I've seen the flu kill 15-20% of the patients in a nursing home in a couple of weeks.

Problems start with many to most patients being at high risk for complications. Very susceptible to injuries and illnesses of any kind. If they catch a disease like flu or COVID-19, are already on oxygen due to reduced lung function, largely immobile due to damage from diabetes or many other conditions, their immune systems can barely fight off any infection. And it spreads quickly in a closed population like a nursing home. Substantial numbers of patients had diminishes mental capacity, limited ability to feed themselves, follow direction.

Nursing homes always smell horrible in the morning, because many times over half of the residents do not control of their bowls/ bladder movements. Which adds another whole level of problems when trying to control infections and waste.

Now i'm talking about nursing homes in the US. Most of the patients are being cared for are on Medicare or Medicaid. The patients are not authorized skilled nursing care. Financially, the home is only able to employ trained aides whose primary skill is cleaning dirty bottoms. They care, but there is usually only one aide per five patients per shift, or fewer. There is only so much one person can do to assist too many people. The system is setup so that these places are warehouses for people, many of whom will die within the first two years of care.

These are NOT the assisted living centers, which can cost upwards of $10,000 month, above the support of insurance. The ones with all the activities, a van to take the ladies to the hair dresser, the men to a barber shop each week. Outings to restaurants or shopping or even to a movie. Even those had trouble containing infectious diseases, but they have more resources.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:25 am
by speedking
There are about 7.8 billion people on the earth. If everyone, every person on the planet, gets sick, based on conservative estimate of 0.5% death rate, would mean 39 million dead.
If the world does not open the economy and societies, it would mean a possible 250 million dead from famine alone added with millions more from other reasons.
This is pure mathematics. The survival of the fittest is science. What are we waiting for?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:36 am
by Aaron747
speedking wrote:
There are about 7.8 billion people on the earth. If everyone, every person on the planet, gets sick, based on conservative estimate of 0.5% death rate, would mean 39 million dead.
If the world does not open the economy and societies, it would mean a possible 250 million dead from famine alone added with millions more from other reasons.
This is pure mathematics. The survival of the fittest is science. What are we waiting for?


If the majority of people in your ‘model’ are infected with the most virulent strain, the death rate would be closer to 3.5% and that would be 273 million, eclipsing your ‘famine’ numbers. Hopefully now you see this is a fruitless exercise and this ‘survival of the fittest’ mode is not how public policy is made or discussed. Medical professionals don’t ascribe to and won’t ever adopt such a mentality.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:52 am
by speedking
Aaron747 wrote:
speedking wrote:
There are about 7.8 billion people on the earth. If everyone, every person on the planet, gets sick, based on conservative estimate of 0.5% death rate, would mean 39 million dead.
If the world does not open the economy and societies, it would mean a possible 250 million dead from famine alone added with millions more from other reasons.
This is pure mathematics. The survival of the fittest is science. What are we waiting for?


If the majority of people in your ‘model’ are infected with the most virulent strain, the death rate would be closer to 3.5% and that would be 273 million, eclipsing your ‘famine’ numbers. Hopefully now you see this is a fruitless exercise and this ‘survival of the fittest’ mode is not how public policy is made or discussed. Medical professionals don’t ascribe to and won’t ever adopt such a mentality.


If your 'model' would be right, together with closing everything would then mean 500+ million deaths. Just pure mathematics. Medical professionals have no idea about the big picture. They are only interested in decreasing the amount of people dying from the virus.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:09 am
by Aaron747
speedking wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
speedking wrote:
There are about 7.8 billion people on the earth. If everyone, every person on the planet, gets sick, based on conservative estimate of 0.5% death rate, would mean 39 million dead.
If the world does not open the economy and societies, it would mean a possible 250 million dead from famine alone added with millions more from other reasons.
This is pure mathematics. The survival of the fittest is science. What are we waiting for?


If the majority of people in your ‘model’ are infected with the most virulent strain, the death rate would be closer to 3.5% and that would be 273 million, eclipsing your ‘famine’ numbers. Hopefully now you see this is a fruitless exercise and this ‘survival of the fittest’ mode is not how public policy is made or discussed. Medical professionals don’t ascribe to and won’t ever adopt such a mentality.


If your 'model' would be right, together with closing everything would then mean 500+ million deaths. Just pure mathematics. Medical professionals have no idea about the big picture. They are only interested in decreasing the amount of people dying from the virus.


And you know this because you completed an MPH degree...when? Get outta town...it’s absurdly fallacious to purport you can attest to the big picture knowledge of thousands of professionals.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:27 am
by Francoflier
casinterest wrote:
Well today was an argument against opening up the economies again

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

103,000 + new cases. Highest yet world wide.
37,000+ in the USA Highest yet in the USA.


The numbers of one day do not a trend make.

Covid is a game of data, and the least we can say is that this data is incomplete and variable. The overall number of reported cases entirely depends on the amount of testing done. As testing is ramping up around the World, I expect the figure to increase closer to the actual number of cases, which we pretty much know is much higher than the reported figures. We just don't know by how much yet.
Different countries also have different rates of testing. The number of tests/million inhabitants vary from only a few hundred to over 100.000 in some places.
This picture will keep evolving.

Note that the daily death toll is remaining somewhat constant and is not showing an upwards trend (it could still). This is not an accurate figure either as every country has a different way of categorizing and counting the deaths. Many patients for instance were already critically ill and COVID is what finally got them. Some may count that as a covid death, others may consider that the patient was dying of something else, which might be especially prevalent among the older population.
Then there's the retirement homes figures, which might or might not be included depending on which country you ask.
The death count may show a slightly more accurate picture of the progress of the disease (because it is easy to count the dead), but it may still wildly vary depending on what changes are made to the calculation by different authorities.

We are a long way from understanding the complete impact of the disease, but as time goes, testing will become more generalized (instead of initially only testing the worse symptomatic cases), showing more and more cases, while the number of deaths is likely to not evolve much (in the way it is counted), thus bringing us closer to the real mortality rate.

A good indicator I find is the number of critical cases, which are reported by hospitals. While it is likely to be still inaccurate, it probably is less so than the other figures as very sick people tend to seek care and will get tested.
That figure appears to have stabilized. It even decreased yesterday.

None of this can predict the future, but making a broad decision regarding people's lives based on one unreliable figure is a non-starter, especially if you keep refusing to analyse and weigh the consequences of it on the other side of the equation.
Again, no one wants to see anyone die, but no one wants to become unemployed on the long term and start defaulting on their payments, be evicted and endure years of hardship along with their families. Not to mention that in the US at least (and in many poorer nations), economic hardship means restricted access to healthcare, which will necessarily turn into an increased death rate, especially given the prevalence of heart conditions, diabetes and the like in North America. And that's not even scratching the surface on the unintended consequences, in terms of mortality and others, of a prolonged voluntary economic collapse.

It's easy for many to just say 'stay home', especially for those who have little to lose from it because they can work from home, or are financially secure enough to weather it, but you can't make that decision for everyone else - i.e. the majority of people - especially not without analyzing the pros AND the cons.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:28 am
by speedking
Aaron747 wrote:
speedking wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

If the majority of people in your ‘model’ are infected with the most virulent strain, the death rate would be closer to 3.5% and that would be 273 million, eclipsing your ‘famine’ numbers. Hopefully now you see this is a fruitless exercise and this ‘survival of the fittest’ mode is not how public policy is made or discussed. Medical professionals don’t ascribe to and won’t ever adopt such a mentality.


If your 'model' would be right, together with closing everything would then mean 500+ million deaths. Just pure mathematics. Medical professionals have no idea about the big picture. They are only interested in decreasing the amount of people dying from the virus.


And you know this because you completed an MPH degree...when? Get outta town...it’s absurdly fallacious to purport you can attest to the big picture knowledge of thousands of professionals.


No, I learned to add already in the elementary school. If you didn't, I believe you should Get outta town.
If you are talking about medical professionals, even hundred thousand of them still do not understand the big picture, just the virus.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:41 am
by Aaron747
speedking wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
speedking wrote:

If your 'model' would be right, together with closing everything would then mean 500+ million deaths. Just pure mathematics. Medical professionals have no idea about the big picture. They are only interested in decreasing the amount of people dying from the virus.


And you know this because you completed an MPH degree...when? Get outta town...it’s absurdly fallacious to purport you can attest to the big picture knowledge of thousands of professionals.


No, I learned to add already in the elementary school. If you didn't, I believe you should Get outta town.
If you are talking about medical professionals, even hundred thousand of them still do not understand the big picture, just the virus.


You absurdly claimed in absolutist terms that they don’t know the big picture - what is your evidence? Perhaps you can enlighten us as to what kind of economics or statistics courses are part of an MPH?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:05 am
by speedking
Aaron747 wrote:
speedking wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

And you know this because you completed an MPH degree...when? Get outta town...it’s absurdly fallacious to purport you can attest to the big picture knowledge of thousands of professionals.


No, I learned to add already in the elementary school. If you didn't, I believe you should Get outta town.
If you are talking about medical professionals, even hundred thousand of them still do not understand the big picture, just the virus.


You absurdly claimed in absolutist terms that they don’t know the big picture - what is your evidence? Perhaps you can enlighten us as to what kind of economics or statistics courses are part of an MPH?


Medical professionals are medical professionals. I believe it is your turn to show evidence they know something about global economy. What do they think, just to start with, shutting down everything would cause to world food supply?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:07 am
by TTailedTiger
casinterest wrote:
Well today was an argument against opening up the economies again

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

103,000 + new cases. Highest yet world wide.
37,000+ in the USA Highest yet in the USA.


This is nothing but propaganda. Just because many more now have access to testing it doesn't mean the rate is increasing.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:13 am
by Aaron747
speedking wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
speedking wrote:

No, I learned to add already in the elementary school. If you didn't, I believe you should Get outta town.
If you are talking about medical professionals, even hundred thousand of them still do not understand the big picture, just the virus.


You absurdly claimed in absolutist terms that they don’t know the big picture - what is your evidence? Perhaps you can enlighten us as to what kind of economics or statistics courses are part of an MPH?


Medical professionals are medical professionals. I believe it is your turn to show evidence they know something about global economy. What do they think, just to start with, shutting down everything would cause to world food supply?


Nah, I don’t play with tu quoque fallacies. You made the argument - you back it up. How can you, an individual, attest to what all medical professionals ‘know’ about the big picture?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:58 am
by winginit
TTailedTiger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Well today was an argument against opening up the economies again

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

103,000 + new cases. Highest yet world wide.
37,000+ in the USA Highest yet in the USA.


This is nothing but propaganda. Just because many more now have access to testing it doesn't mean the rate is increasing.


Ah of course, because if there are no statistics that back your view, just say all of the other statistics are bogus!

PPVRA wrote:
winginit wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Are you not aware that something like 98% of coronavirus patients make a full recovery?


Are you not aware that what you've said there is, you know, a lie?

Source


That’s not a reliable source, winginit. There are numerous problems with statistics at the moment and they’ve all been discussed here.

I’m not agreeing with you nor with the previous poster. But you cannot rely solely on those numbers right now because nobody can. Even the CDC and John Hopkins don’t have all the numbers necessary right now.


It is the most reliable source of information that we have at present and should be treated as such - unless you're hiding some spot on stats up your sleeve? Statistics are rarely perfect, so as always, you draw conclusions from what you have.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:58 am
by speedking
Aaron747 wrote:
speedking wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

You absurdly claimed in absolutist terms that they don’t know the big picture - what is your evidence? Perhaps you can enlighten us as to what kind of economics or statistics courses are part of an MPH?


Medical professionals are medical professionals. I believe it is your turn to show evidence they know something about global economy. What do they think, just to start with, shutting down everything would cause to world food supply?


Nah, I don’t play with tu quoque fallacies. You made the argument - you back it up. How can you, an individual, attest to what all medical professionals ‘know’ about the big picture?


Nah, I don't play that game. Have seen that they have not even learn to add in the elementary school.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:07 am
by TTailedTiger
winginit wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Well today was an argument against opening up the economies again

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

103,000 + new cases. Highest yet world wide.
37,000+ in the USA Highest yet in the USA.


This is nothing but propaganda. Just because many more now have access to testing it doesn't mean the rate is increasing.


Ah of course, because if there are no statistics that back your view, just say all of the other statistics are bogus!

PPVRA wrote:
winginit wrote:

Are you not aware that what you've said there is, you know, a lie?

Source


That’s not a reliable source, winginit. There are numerous problems with statistics at the moment and they’ve all been discussed here.

I’m not agreeing with you nor with the previous poster. But you cannot rely solely on those numbers right now because nobody can. Even the CDC and John Hopkins don’t have all the numbers necessary right now.


It is the most reliable source of information that we have at present and should be treated as such - unless you're hiding some spot on stats up your sleeve? Statistics are rarely perfect, so as always, you draw conclusions from what you have.


It's really breathtaking that some people seem to relish the thought of infections and deaths increasing while sending the economy even further down the tubes. It's really disgusting.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:09 am
by Concierge
speedking wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
speedking wrote:

No, I learned to add already in the elementary school. If you didn't, I believe you should Get outta town.
If you are talking about medical professionals, even hundred thousand of them still do not understand the big picture, just the virus.


You absurdly claimed in absolutist terms that they don’t know the big picture - what is your evidence? Perhaps you can enlighten us as to what kind of economics or statistics courses are part of an MPH?


Medical professionals are medical professionals. I believe it is your turn to show evidence they know something about global economy. What do they think, just to start with, shutting down everything would cause to world food supply?


This isn't just a medical response. There is an Incident Command / Incident Response system that includes an interdisciplinary team. Economic consequences are considered by team members with appropriate experience and skills. The team decisions may not suit everyone, but there is a considered and collaborative process.

You will dismiss this - your certainty in all things is remarkable. That's not a compliment.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:09 am
by winginit
TTailedTiger wrote:
winginit wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

This is nothing but propaganda. Just because many more now have access to testing it doesn't mean the rate is increasing.


Ah of course, because if there are no statistics that back your view, just say all of the other statistics are bogus!

PPVRA wrote:

That’s not a reliable source, winginit. There are numerous problems with statistics at the moment and they’ve all been discussed here.

I’m not agreeing with you nor with the previous poster. But you cannot rely solely on those numbers right now because nobody can. Even the CDC and John Hopkins don’t have all the numbers necessary right now.


It is the most reliable source of information that we have at present and should be treated as such - unless you're hiding some spot on stats up your sleeve? Statistics are rarely perfect, so as always, you draw conclusions from what you have.


It's really breathtaking that some people seem to relish the thought of infections and deaths increasing while sending the economy even further down the tubes. It's really disgusting.


Stating the most up to date and accurate facts that we have, and using that to draw conclusions, is not relishing in anything - it's objective. Don't try and put words in my mouth or speak for me. Now shoo. Make yourself absent.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:32 am
by Aaron747
TTailedTiger wrote:
winginit wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

This is nothing but propaganda. Just because many more now have access to testing it doesn't mean the rate is increasing.


Ah of course, because if there are no statistics that back your view, just say all of the other statistics are bogus!

PPVRA wrote:

That’s not a reliable source, winginit. There are numerous problems with statistics at the moment and they’ve all been discussed here.

I’m not agreeing with you nor with the previous poster. But you cannot rely solely on those numbers right now because nobody can. Even the CDC and John Hopkins don’t have all the numbers necessary right now.


It is the most reliable source of information that we have at present and should be treated as such - unless you're hiding some spot on stats up your sleeve? Statistics are rarely perfect, so as always, you draw conclusions from what you have.


It's really breathtaking that some people seem to relish the thought of infections and deaths increasing while sending the economy even further down the tubes. It's really disgusting.


Produce the quotes - $20 says you can't find any from members here saying what you claim.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:33 am
by Aaron747
speedking wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
speedking wrote:

Medical professionals are medical professionals. I believe it is your turn to show evidence they know something about global economy. What do they think, just to start with, shutting down everything would cause to world food supply?


Nah, I don’t play with tu quoque fallacies. You made the argument - you back it up. How can you, an individual, attest to what all medical professionals ‘know’ about the big picture?


Nah, I don't play that game. Have seen that they have not even learn to add in the elementary school.


Okay, so you have no credibility. Glad that's settled.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 7:48 am
by art
speedking wrote:
There are about 7.8 billion people on the earth. If everyone, every person on the planet, gets sick, based on conservative estimate of 0.5% death rate, would mean 39 million dead.
If the world does not open the economy and societies, it would mean a possible 250 million dead from famine alone added with millions more from other reasons.
This is pure mathematics. The survival of the fittest is science. What are we waiting for?


Yes, the quandary is whether to accept millions of deaths in the short term (by carrying on as normal before the arrival of COVID-19) or to accept a far greater number of deaths in the medium term as a consequence of the emergency measures taken to combat the virus. I do not think sufficient consideration has been given to the latter.

I think we need to shift towards weighing short term losses against medium term losses more thoughtfully.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:01 am
by TTailedTiger
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
winginit wrote:

Ah of course, because if there are no statistics that back your view, just say all of the other statistics are bogus!



It is the most reliable source of information that we have at present and should be treated as such - unless you're hiding some spot on stats up your sleeve? Statistics are rarely perfect, so as always, you draw conclusions from what you have.


It's really breathtaking that some people seem to relish the thought of infections and deaths increasing while sending the economy even further down the tubes. It's really disgusting.


Produce the quotes - $20 says you can't find any from members here saying what you claim.


That's like requiring someone to admit they are a racist before assigning them the label. There are some people who just can't hide their feelings.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:08 am
by Aaron747
TTailedTiger wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

It's really breathtaking that some people seem to relish the thought of infections and deaths increasing while sending the economy even further down the tubes. It's really disgusting.


Produce the quotes - $20 says you can't find any from members here saying what you claim.


That's like requiring someone to admit they are a racist before assigning them the label. There are some people who just can't hide their feelings.


Nonsense, there are plenty who proudly proclaim what they are prejudiced against - I can find dozens instantly in a youtube search. You deflected because you know you'd waste your time hunting down quotes and turning up empty.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:37 am
by scbriml
speedking wrote:
This is pure mathematics.


speedking wrote:
Just pure mathematics.


Your claims are as far from "pure mathematics" as it's possible to get. :rotfl:

winginit wrote:
Ah of course, because if there are no statistics that back your view, just say all of the other statistics are bogus!


Hey, it's how the "greatest president in history" rolls, so why not? :wink2: