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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:33 pm
by PixelPilot
2122M wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
2122M wrote:

We all know how fractions work, but in this case, the denominator is simply the population of Sweden. How is that 'accumulating' at 500-600 per day. I promise you 500-600 people a day are not moving to Sweden in the middle of a pandemic. The only number in the fraction that can go up is the numerator, or number of deaths.

Also, all the numbers are not in although they are slowing in Europe. And Sweden is performing terribly compared to their Nordic neighbors.


Short term should be the keyword here.
We will see how they fare a year from now.


So we've covered fractions and math, now lets look at grammar. I said, Sweden is performing terribly. That's using the present tense, meaning as of right now, Sweden's fatality and infection rate is substantially higher than Denmark, Norway, and Finland.

If you want to speculate about the future of coronavirus in northern Europe, go for it. My crystal ball is in the shop at the moment, so I have no idea what the future holds. I suspect you have no idea either.


Then why you even post?
The whole COVID-19 is a unknown that is fought on all fronts on a daily basis.
Those numbers you are posting go back few months to form current state of affair yet this whole situation is fluid.
On top of that you are combining two different approaches that are not meant to be compared short term as i'm sure infection projections in Sweden were assumed to be much higher from the start.
A year from now you can come and say who was performing terrible. For all we know Sweden and their numbers are better than were expected at this time and thx to the herd immunity come next winter they will be in a much better state than those that acted the opposite.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:38 pm
by Jalap
PPVRA wrote:
I looked at daily variation, it does jump around a bit, but it’s been roughly the same variation for most of April. The chart showing total cases also rises linearly and mostly steadily. Similar story with ICU hospitalizations, except those actually show a small drop recently.

Edit: the hospitalization number is better, because it doesn’t depend on changes in testing availability.

Looking at daily new cases: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
It shows that weekly cycle, with a record amount of new cases every friday (excep for April 17th).
If this was to show new cases on a weekly basis, a sharp increase would be clearly visible.

They did report very few new cases this weekend. But today was the worst Tuesday (not in the chart yet). I fear Friday will again be a record high new cases.

If this doesn't happen and we see amount of new cases truely flatten, that would be excellent news. But we can't really cheer for the Swedish approach till this actually happens.
And, something that can't be neglected, there are pretty strict measures in Sweden as well. Reproduction rate of the virus is down a lot, compared to what it would be in normal life.
The "Swedish approach" wasn't possible in countries that had far more virus at the start of the measures.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:48 pm
by PPVRA
Jalap wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
I looked at daily variation, it does jump around a bit, but it’s been roughly the same variation for most of April. The chart showing total cases also rises linearly and mostly steadily. Similar story with ICU hospitalizations, except those actually show a small drop recently.

Edit: the hospitalization number is better, because it doesn’t depend on changes in testing availability.

Looking at daily new cases: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
It shows that weekly cycle, with a record amount of new cases every friday (excep for April 17th).
If this was to show new cases on a weekly basis, a sharp increase would be clearly visible.

They did report very few new cases this weekend. But today was the worst Tuesday (not in the chart yet). I fear Friday will again be a record high new cases.

If this doesn't happen and we see amount of new cases truely flatten, that would be excellent news. But we can't really cheer for the Swedish approach till this actually happens.
And, something that can't be neglected, there are pretty strict measures in Sweden as well. Reproduction rate of the virus is down a lot, compared to what it would be in normal life.
The "Swedish approach" wasn't possible in countries that had far more virus at the start of the measures.


The record high you mentioned is only slightly higher than the previous records. I see no cause for alarm.

On average, Sweden has been on a plateau for a couple of weeks.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:54 pm
by 2122M
PPVRA wrote:
2122M wrote:
PPVRA wrote:

Total deaths won’t decrease. But deaths/millions can by changes in the numerator and denominator. The denominator is accumulating numbers much faster, at 500-600 per day, while the numerator (deaths per day) has fallen substantially and is only accumulating a couple of dozens per day.

This number can change until the pandemic is over. At that point, “all the numbers are in”. Which is why the possibility of Sweden ending up with the exact same death rate as other countries exist.


We all know how fractions work, but in this case, the denominator is simply the population of Sweden. How is that 'accumulating' at 500-600 per day. I promise you 500-600 people a day are not moving to Sweden in the middle of a pandemic. The only number in the fraction that can go up is the numerator, or number of deaths.

Also, all the numbers are not in although they are slowing in Europe. And Sweden is performing terribly compared to their Nordic neighbors.


For case fatality, the denominator is positive diagnosis not total population. This is what the chart posted above shows. They extrapolated those numbers to per million.

Sweden is doing just fine and heading in the right direction. By permitting a faster, controlled spread, Sweden is likely closer to the end of the pandemic than their neighbors. Hence why not all numbers look as good as, say, Denmark.... for now, anyways.


I suppose I don't what graphic you are referring to, but in Sweden, deaths per 1 million in population is currently at 233. The number can only go up, it cannot go down. That is not deaths per 1 million tests, that is deaths per 1 million population.

By contract, Denmark's is 75 deaths per 1 million population, Norway's is 38 and Finland's is 36.

So yes, Sweden has done very poorly when compared to their neighbors.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:56 pm
by PPVRA
2122M wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
2122M wrote:

We all know how fractions work, but in this case, the denominator is simply the population of Sweden. How is that 'accumulating' at 500-600 per day. I promise you 500-600 people a day are not moving to Sweden in the middle of a pandemic. The only number in the fraction that can go up is the numerator, or number of deaths.

Also, all the numbers are not in although they are slowing in Europe. And Sweden is performing terribly compared to their Nordic neighbors.


For case fatality, the denominator is positive diagnosis not total population. This is what the chart posted above shows. They extrapolated those numbers to per million.

Sweden is doing just fine and heading in the right direction. By permitting a faster, controlled spread, Sweden is likely closer to the end of the pandemic than their neighbors. Hence why not all numbers look as good as, say, Denmark.... for now, anyways.


I suppose I don't what graphic you are referring to, but in Sweden, deaths per 1 million in population is currently at 233. The number can only go up, it cannot go down. That is not deaths per 1 million tests, that is deaths per 1 million population.

By contract, Denmark's is 75 deaths per 1 million population, Norway's is 38 and Finland's is 36.

So yes, Sweden has done very poorly when compared to their neighbors.


It makes no sense to divide deaths per population when it comes to a disease that not every person in that population has yet contracted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate


FYI it’s not deaths per million total tests, it’s only the confirmed positive tests that count.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:58 pm
by casinterest
PPVRA wrote:
Jalap wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
I looked at daily variation, it does jump around a bit, but it’s been roughly the same variation for most of April. The chart showing total cases also rises linearly and mostly steadily. Similar story with ICU hospitalizations, except those actually show a small drop recently.

Edit: the hospitalization number is better, because it doesn’t depend on changes in testing availability.

Looking at daily new cases: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
It shows that weekly cycle, with a record amount of new cases every friday (excep for April 17th).
If this was to show new cases on a weekly basis, a sharp increase would be clearly visible.

They did report very few new cases this weekend. But today was the worst Tuesday (not in the chart yet). I fear Friday will again be a record high new cases.

If this doesn't happen and we see amount of new cases truely flatten, that would be excellent news. But we can't really cheer for the Swedish approach till this actually happens.
And, something that can't be neglected, there are pretty strict measures in Sweden as well. Reproduction rate of the virus is down a lot, compared to what it would be in normal life.
The "Swedish approach" wasn't possible in countries that had far more virus at the start of the measures.


The record high you mentioned is only slightly higher than the previous records. I see no cause for alarm.

On average, Sweden has been on a plateau for a couple of weeks.


I see it stepping up each week, with yesterday being the exception. Higher lows, and higher highs each week. It will remain to be seen as the trending cases is still going higher in Sweden

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:03 pm
by PPVRA
casinterest wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Looking at daily new cases: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
It shows that weekly cycle, with a record amount of new cases every friday (excep for April 17th).
If this was to show new cases on a weekly basis, a sharp increase would be clearly visible.

They did report very few new cases this weekend. But today was the worst Tuesday (not in the chart yet). I fear Friday will again be a record high new cases.

If this doesn't happen and we see amount of new cases truely flatten, that would be excellent news. But we can't really cheer for the Swedish approach till this actually happens.
And, something that can't be neglected, there are pretty strict measures in Sweden as well. Reproduction rate of the virus is down a lot, compared to what it would be in normal life.
The "Swedish approach" wasn't possible in countries that had far more virus at the start of the measures.


The record high you mentioned is only slightly higher than the previous records. I see no cause for alarm.

On average, Sweden has been on a plateau for a couple of weeks.


I see it stepping up each week, with yesterday being the exception. Higher lows, and higher highs each week. It will remain to be seen as the trending cases is still going higher in Sweden


Hospitalizations show a clear decline as does new daily deaths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... _in_Sweden

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:07 pm
by casinterest
PPVRA wrote:
casinterest wrote:
PPVRA wrote:

The record high you mentioned is only slightly higher than the previous records. I see no cause for alarm.

On average, Sweden has been on a plateau for a couple of weeks.


I see it stepping up each week, with yesterday being the exception. Higher lows, and higher highs each week. It will remain to be seen as the trending cases is still going higher in Sweden


Hospitalizations show a clear decline as does new daily deaths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... _in_Sweden


Did you read the fine print?

Note: Data on new intensive care hospitalisations is compiled by the Public Health Agency of Sweden at 11:30 CEST (UTC+02:00) each day. Reports of new intensive care hospitalisations to the Public Health Agency might be delayed by up to several days, especially around weekends, possibly introducing delays in reported number of cases for the last few days.[14] Data on demographics are updated weekly with a delay of several days.

Deaths

: Data on new deaths is compiled by the Public Health Agency of Sweden at 11:30 CEST (UTC+02:00) each day. Reports of new intensive care hospitalisations to the Public Health Agency might be delayed by up to several days, especially around weekends, possibly introducing delays in reported number of cases for the last few days.[14] Data on demographics are updated weekly with a delay of several days.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:18 pm
by 2122M
PPVRA wrote:
2122M wrote:
PPVRA wrote:

For case fatality, the denominator is positive diagnosis not total population. This is what the chart posted above shows. They extrapolated those numbers to per million.

Sweden is doing just fine and heading in the right direction. By permitting a faster, controlled spread, Sweden is likely closer to the end of the pandemic than their neighbors. Hence why not all numbers look as good as, say, Denmark.... for now, anyways.


I suppose I don't what graphic you are referring to, but in Sweden, deaths per 1 million in population is currently at 233. The number can only go up, it cannot go down. That is not deaths per 1 million tests, that is deaths per 1 million population.

By contract, Denmark's is 75 deaths per 1 million population, Norway's is 38 and Finland's is 36.

So yes, Sweden has done very poorly when compared to their neighbors.


It makes no sense to divide deaths per population when it comes to a disease that not every person in that population has yet contracted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate


FYI it’s not deaths per million total tests, it’s only the confirmed positive tests that count.


It makes perfect sense to base it on your total population. How well is your population faring against this virus?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:24 pm
by PPVRA
casinterest wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
casinterest wrote:

I see it stepping up each week, with yesterday being the exception. Higher lows, and higher highs each week. It will remain to be seen as the trending cases is still going higher in Sweden


Hospitalizations show a clear decline as does new daily deaths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... _in_Sweden


Did you read the fine print?

Note: Data on new intensive care hospitalisations is compiled by the Public Health Agency of Sweden at 11:30 CEST (UTC+02:00) each day. Reports of new intensive care hospitalisations to the Public Health Agency might be delayed by up to several days, especially around weekends, possibly introducing delays in reported number of cases for the last few days.[14] Data on demographics are updated weekly with a delay of several days.

Deaths

: Data on new deaths is compiled by the Public Health Agency of Sweden at 11:30 CEST (UTC+02:00) each day. Reports of new intensive care hospitalisations to the Public Health Agency might be delayed by up to several days, especially around weekends, possibly introducing delays in reported number of cases for the last few days.[14] Data on demographics are updated weekly with a delay of several days.


Yes, I did. But the trends are stable or decreasing for most of April.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:25 pm
by casinterest
PPVRA wrote:
casinterest wrote:
PPVRA wrote:

Hospitalizations show a clear decline as does new daily deaths.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... _in_Sweden


Did you read the fine print?

Note: Data on new intensive care hospitalisations is compiled by the Public Health Agency of Sweden at 11:30 CEST (UTC+02:00) each day. Reports of new intensive care hospitalisations to the Public Health Agency might be delayed by up to several days, especially around weekends, possibly introducing delays in reported number of cases for the last few days.[14] Data on demographics are updated weekly with a delay of several days.

Deaths

: Data on new deaths is compiled by the Public Health Agency of Sweden at 11:30 CEST (UTC+02:00) each day. Reports of new intensive care hospitalisations to the Public Health Agency might be delayed by up to several days, especially around weekends, possibly introducing delays in reported number of cases for the last few days.[14] Data on demographics are updated weekly with a delay of several days.


Yes, I did. But the trends are stable or decreasing for pretty much all of April.



Depends on how you look at it. Based on the worldometer, it seems that the numbers get updated in bulk. A few more weeks will tell the tale.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:28 pm
by Eyad89
PPVRA wrote:



It makes no sense to divide deaths per population when it comes to a disease that not every person in that population has yet contracted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate


FYI it’s not deaths per million total tests, it’s only the confirmed positive tests that count.


Things is, it does not make sense comparing different confirmed positives from different countries as different countries test differently. Even in terms of test per capita, Sweden is doing poorly compared to its neighbouring countries. So its confirmed positives are less accurate than its neighbouring countries. That's why death per capita makes more sense, because deaths from COVID are more likely to come from those who had strong symptoms, and those are more likely to be tested. Even then, not all COVID deaths would be counted.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:36 pm
by PPVRA
Eyad89 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:



It makes no sense to divide deaths per population when it comes to a disease that not every person in that population has yet contracted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate


FYI it’s not deaths per million total tests, it’s only the confirmed positive tests that count.


Things is, it does not make sense comparing different confirmed positives from different countries as different countries test differently. Even in terms of test per capita, Sweden is doing poorly compared to its neighbouring countries. So its confirmed positives are less accurate than its neighbouring countries. That's why death per capita makes more sense, because deaths from COVID are more likely to come from those who had strong symptoms, and those are more likely to be tested. Even then, not all COVID deaths would be counted.


I agree that new confirmed cases has issues. Hence why I prefer hospitalization and death data, which are all trending down in Sweden.

I do have one issue with what you said . . .fewer testing generally means you test fewer but more severe cases, which means you get a higher percentage of positive versus negative. . . but I don't see why it affects the accuracy of the tests.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:39 pm
by PPVRA
2122M wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
2122M wrote:

I suppose I don't what graphic you are referring to, but in Sweden, deaths per 1 million in population is currently at 233. The number can only go up, it cannot go down. That is not deaths per 1 million tests, that is deaths per 1 million population.

By contract, Denmark's is 75 deaths per 1 million population, Norway's is 38 and Finland's is 36.

So yes, Sweden has done very poorly when compared to their neighbors.


It makes no sense to divide deaths per population when it comes to a disease that not every person in that population has yet contracted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate


FYI it’s not deaths per million total tests, it’s only the confirmed positive tests that count.


It makes perfect sense to base it on your total population. How well is your population faring against this virus?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Look at the buzzfeed chart posted. It quite clearly shows a decrease in deaths/million, in both Sweden's and Denmark's case. Ratios can and do change, including in the downward direction.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:55 pm
by speedking
Swedish conversational culture does not include outright disagreement. There is a demand for consensus in Sweden. It implies that one's own dissenting opinion must be able to be presented in a way that does not create distortions in the atmosphere.

In practice, it means the need for consistency. In Sweden, it is important to build harmony between people. It does not involve telling unpleasant truths. Because Corona is invisible, turning your gaze is easy.

During this time, it means that the country’s exceptional line must not be criticized. There has been no custom in Sweden of criticizing the arms trade with dictatorships or the country's failed integration policy. It has only begun to be talked about in recent years, when the Swedish Democrats managed to break through Swedish politics. In the past, the party field has been very rigid.

Swedes tend to talk politics only with those who vote the same way. People have been stigmatized by the social classes represented by the parties and are voting accordingly. Since people are aging by voting for the same party, criticizing the vote would be the same as criticizing oneself and keeping one stupid.

Going through your own mistakes is unscheduled. The Swede may say broadly that a lot of mistakes have been made. Related to this is the fact that there is no custom in Sweden to criticize the decisions that have been made, no matter how big and failed they may be. When it is decided together and properly funded, it cannot be possible for Sweden to make mistakes. A good example of this is that the previous Social Democrat-led government has not changed the law that allows schools and health care to make a profit.

Now, in Corona times, Swedes treat questioners of the Swedish coronal line as rockers of a common boat. Many Swedes view corona measures as terrorists. They refuse to negotiate with the invisible threat.

Swedish corona policy condenses Swedish exceptionalism, that is, the idea of the country's superiority over others. While the rest of the world is united on the corona, Sweden does not need to. Because there in the corona statistics are over-represented foreign-born, it has only reinforced the Swedish perception that they are not affected by the disease like others.

When significant corona measures were initiated in Sweden’s neighboring countries of Denmark, Norway, and Finland, and governments began to rule through emergency laws, many of my Swedes were shocked. In their view, it spoke of the thinness of democracy.

At every turn, they emphasize that in Sweden, corona operations are led by independent officials, decisions are based on scientific assessments and politicians have not been able to get involved. Everyone was pleased that the opposition dared to defend democracy and rejected the intentions of the government led by Prime Minister to strengthen its power.

The Swedes want to see themselves as a nation that dares to take risks, of course only controlled. Swedes are shocked that their corona policy is being criticized abroad. Many are genuinely offended by how they can be held irresponsible, especially if attention is turned to the country’s death toll. The Swedes themselves compare themselves and their figures to the great powers. They feel they have done well.

Sweden wants to talk about the future. That is why it is important for them to ensure that the economy remains sound in the future. They have explained how important it is for the economy to work and for the welfare state to be maintained. Debating whether it is not the welfare state that should take care of the survival of citizens is hardly of interest.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:56 pm
by 2122M
PPVRA wrote:
2122M wrote:
PPVRA wrote:

It makes no sense to divide deaths per population when it comes to a disease that not every person in that population has yet contracted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate


FYI it’s not deaths per million total tests, it’s only the confirmed positive tests that count.


It makes perfect sense to base it on your total population. How well is your population faring against this virus?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Look at the buzzfeed chart posted. It quite clearly shows a decrease in deaths/million, in both Sweden's and Denmark's case. Ratios can and do change, including in the downward direction.


You'll have to re-post that chart, because I have no idea what you're talking about. Mathematically speaking though, how could the death rate per million in population ever go down without a dramatic increase in the population, which we know hasn't happened in the last 2 months.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:26 pm
by TTailedTiger
You gotta love all the people angry about businesses opening back up. As if they are being forced to leave their homes... Why is it ok to shop for clothes at Target but not Kohl's? I really hope these retailers sue their local and state governments. They are NOT allowed to pick the winners and losers. It would be much safer to have people spread out among all the stores instead of just a few.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:17 am
by Aaron747
PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

Sounds like major case of fallacy.

It's like reading good old Russian propaganda where people were only allowed to talk about the good and never mention bad (like it didn't exist to be more accurate) even though bad was spreading like wildfire.

Quick google and last two years didn't look like candy in that neck of the woods.. Wonder how "pretty" it will be in near future after all this job/business losses.
Words from friends that live in Cali are not as beautiful as those drone shots.
https://www.ksby.com/news/homelessness- ... identified
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbPOYRN ... d7b2kJvoCr


What a bizarre post. Surely you realize the high rents throughout the state have a similar effect on the underemployed and recently evicted regardless of location? Logic fail.


And?
All conditions are true. All of them combined paint a even grimmer image.
Logic ftw actually.


Not really - just one straw man after another. The homeless issue is a social problem - nothing to do with the natural beauty and bounty of the place. The reason it gets brought up by red staters is they know where they live doesn’t please the eye, so they look for the ills. The problems here are not news to any Californians...it’s expensive to live here, period. Has been quite so since the 1980s. Doesn’t change how lovely the place is - you get what you pay for, after all. Enjoyed the drive to Monterey today.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:26 am
by Eyad89
PPVRA wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:



It makes no sense to divide deaths per population when it comes to a disease that not every person in that population has yet contracted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate


FYI it’s not deaths per million total tests, it’s only the confirmed positive tests that count.


Things is, it does not make sense comparing different confirmed positives from different countries as different countries test differently. Even in terms of test per capita, Sweden is doing poorly compared to its neighbouring countries. So its confirmed positives are less accurate than its neighbouring countries. That's why death per capita makes more sense, because deaths from COVID are more likely to come from those who had strong symptoms, and those are more likely to be tested. Even then, not all COVID deaths would be counted.


I agree that new confirmed cases has issues. Hence why I prefer hospitalization and death data, which are all trending down in Sweden.

I do have one issue with what you said . . .fewer testing generally means you test fewer but more severe cases, which means you get a higher percentage of positive versus negative. . . but I don't see why it affects the accuracy of the tests.



I have seen it argued that the best way to guess the true number of infections is to simply look at the number of death and then multiply it by a 100, since the mortality rate is about 1%.

So for the US, as the number of deaths is approaching 60,000, we can assume that there are already 6,000,000 infections.

As for hospitalizations, it’s also difficult to be used as a basis for comparison since different countries might have different criteria on when sick people should be hospitalized.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:59 am
by lowwkjax
Eyad89 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:

Things is, it does not make sense comparing different confirmed positives from different countries as different countries test differently. Even in terms of test per capita, Sweden is doing poorly compared to its neighbouring countries. So its confirmed positives are less accurate than its neighbouring countries. That's why death per capita makes more sense, because deaths from COVID are more likely to come from those who had strong symptoms, and those are more likely to be tested. Even then, not all COVID deaths would be counted.


I agree that new confirmed cases has issues. Hence why I prefer hospitalization and death data, which are all trending down in Sweden.

I do have one issue with what you said . . .fewer testing generally means you test fewer but more severe cases, which means you get a higher percentage of positive versus negative. . . but I don't see why it affects the accuracy of the tests.



I have seen it argued that the best way to guess the true number of infections is to simply look at the number of death and then multiply it by a 100, since the mortality rate is about 1%.

So for the US, as the number of deaths is approaching 60,000, we can assume that there are already 6,000,000 infections.

As for hospitalizations, it’s also difficult to be used as a basis for comparison since different countries might have different criteria on when sick people should be hospitalized.


I disagree. Recent antibody-studies from CA as well as a part of Italy have shown that the number of people with antibodies (= previously infected but maybe no or just mild symptoms) is between 50 and 85 times higher than the number of positive tests which if true obviously brings down the mortality rate quite a bit. Austria for example would then have a 0.02 (yes, zero point zero two) % death rate which makes a huge difference.

Source: https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... ara-county

https://orf.at/stories/3162564/ (German)

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:09 am
by art
Eyad89 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Eyad89 wrote:

Things is, it does not make sense comparing different confirmed positives from different countries as different countries test differently. Even in terms of test per capita, Sweden is doing poorly compared to its neighbouring countries. So its confirmed positives are less accurate than its neighbouring countries. That's why death per capita makes more sense, because deaths from COVID are more likely to come from those who had strong symptoms, and those are more likely to be tested. Even then, not all COVID deaths would be counted.


I agree that new confirmed cases has issues. Hence why I prefer hospitalization and death data, which are all trending down in Sweden.

I do have one issue with what you said . . .fewer testing generally means you test fewer but more severe cases, which means you get a higher percentage of positive versus negative. . . but I don't see why it affects the accuracy of the tests.



I have seen it argued that the best way to guess the true number of infections is to simply look at the number of death and then multiply it by a 100, since the mortality rate is about 1%.

So for the US, as the number of deaths is approaching 60,000, we can assume that there are already 6,000,000 infections.

As for hospitalizations, it’s also difficult to be used as a basis for comparison since different countries might have different criteria on when sick people should be hospitalized.


But the number of cases in populations is not known. Not even roughly. When the numbe of positive tests in the US reached a million, how many more unidentified cases were there? A further million? A further 5 million? 10 million? 25 million? More?

There is a known number of deaths in the population where the deceased tested positive for the virus but certainty about that number without any idea at all about the number of cases in the population precludes a mortality rate being calculated.

More data needed about how many people have been infected and how many of those people die later before a mortality rate can be calculated.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:51 am
by Chemist
art wrote:
Chemist wrote:
Re: healthcare spending per capita, the US has a lower life expectancy than almost all first-world countries. So we not only spend 2x, we do that with worse lifespans.


Lives foreshortened due to a high animal fat, high sugar diet combined with excessive calorie consumption (ie eating too much)? That is not a failure of the health system, is it? I see it as people eating and drinking themselves to a prematurely early grave.


Of course we're not all identical, but in Europe the smoking rate is much higher, and they are getting obese as well. Yet they still live longer than the US, all or nearly all of European countries.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:09 pm
by Eyad89
lowwkjax wrote:


I disagree. Recent antibody-studies from CA as well as a part of Italy have shown that the number of people with antibodies (= previously infected but maybe no or just mild symptoms) is between 50 and 85 times higher than the number of positive tests which if true obviously brings down the mortality rate quite a bit. Austria for example would then have a 0.02 (yes, zero point zero two) % death rate which makes a huge difference.

Source: https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... ara-county

https://orf.at/stories/3162564/ (German)


Yeah, I have seen those studies, and I hope what is said there is true. Thing is, many pathologists are still doubting those tests as they might be simply picking the antibodies of other types of coronaviruses, such as the common cold. That's why those numbers are still not taken seriously by governments. Those antibody tests are still being verified.

The study you linked only says that the real infection in Santa Clara are 50-85 times the confirmed cases, it only talks about Santa Clara, so it just means this county might not be testing extensively.

As of today, the US has carried out 6 millions tests with 1 million confirmed cases, so that means 16% of tests are positive. Don't forget that the US still doesn't test anyone, it's only those with strong symptoms or those who have been in touch with confirmed cases get tested. So a 2.5% - 4% range linked in the study does sound pretty good. That's close to the 6,000,000 possible infections I cited above. This pretty much confirms the 1% mortality rate.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:17 pm
by UpNAWAy
Does anyone else find out how strange it was the entire world came together in almost unanimous agreement over this virus and how to respond? We can't agree on anything in our own cities and towns much less countries or everywhere. Its very suspicious how easily the governments and media all fell right in line. And no I am not a conspiracy theorist.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:10 pm
by PixelPilot
Side effects already appearing?
Links to articles in the thread.

https://twitter.com/alexberenson/status ... 64577?s=21

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:43 pm
by Tugger
It is pretty impressive how against China is to any kind independent investigation into the COVID-19 virus, and how it started and progressed. Now Australia is getting dumped on by them and China is threatening retaliation for Australia's statements and calls supporting having an open and independent investigation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-timeline

Tugg

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:31 pm
by AirWorthy99
For those who think that Sweden's actions during COVID are wrong, take a look at this article by liberal Thomas Friedman:


The upside of Sweden’s strategy — if it works — is that your economy does not take such a deep hit from lockdowns. It is unlike the strategy of suppression pursued in cities across America right now — as well as around the globe — where, when the lockdown is over, your population largely has not developed immunity and so most everyone remains vulnerable to the virus, and to a second wave in the fall.

Think of the challenge of New York City. Its hospitals would have been overwhelmed by the sudden crush of patients, so the months of lockdown of millions will surely, and vitally, have saved lives. But it has come at huge cost to jobs and businesses and with little progress to herd immunity — and with the prospect that the virus can come roaring back as soon as the lockdown is lifted, unless there is Chinese-level testing, tracking, tracing and quarantining those carrying the infection. And even that might not work.

Now think of Stockholm. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency — the nation’s top infectious disease official and architect of Sweden’s coronavirus response, said in an interview published in USA Today on Tuesday: “We think that up to 25 percent people in Stockholm have been exposed to coronavirus and are possibly immune. A recent survey from one of our hospitals in Stockholm found that 27 percent of staff there are immune. We think that most of those are immune from transmission in society, not the workplace. We could reach herd immunity in Stockholm within a matter of weeks.”........

......Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said in an interview with WCCO radio on Monday that “I think that Sweden is one model we need to look at, but it’s not the only model, but we surely need to have these discussions.” Because absent a miracle vaccine soon, said Osterholm, “this virus will not stop trying to infect people until we get it to at least the 60 percent or 70 percent level.”

Herd immunity “has historically been nature’s way of ending pandemics,” added Dr. David Katz, the public health physician who helped kick off the debate in an essay he wrote in The New York Times on March 20 and in a follow-up interview we did together.

“We need to bend with her forces — even when we as a species are responsible for unleashing them,” Katz said. That means a designed strategy, based on risk profiles, of phasing back to work those least vulnerable, so we gradually cultivate the protection of herd immunity — “while concentrating our health services and social services on protecting those most vulnerable” until we can sound the all-clear.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/opin ... weden.html

We are just avoiding the inevitable, we will all eventually become Sweden.

Guess who is not going to worry about a second wave in the fall? Unless a miraculous vaccine comes out soon, Sweden's approach to this will be the way forward, just that we are delaying it.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:32 pm
by Aaron747
Tugger wrote:
It is pretty impressive how against China is to any kind independent investigation into the COVID-19 virus, and how it started and progressed. Now Australia is getting dumped on by them and China is threatening retaliation for Australia's statements and calls supporting having an open and independent investigation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-timeline

Tugg


They are up two creeks - A. they know they can't control the narrative if an independent investigation is conducted, and B. they don't trust anything done by the west to be independent. If either are the case they should just turn over any and all data they have - *that* will tell the truth. What was known, when, where, and how?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:41 pm
by winginit
Aaron747 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
It is pretty impressive how against China is to any kind independent investigation into the COVID-19 virus, and how it started and progressed. Now Australia is getting dumped on by them and China is threatening retaliation for Australia's statements and calls supporting having an open and independent investigation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-timeline

Tugg


They are up two creeks - A. they know they can't control the narrative if an independent investigation is conducted, and B. they don't trust anything done by the west to be independent. If either are the case they should just turn over any and all data they have - *that* will tell the truth. What was known, when, where, and how?


At the same time, what can be done about it?

Even today, virtually the entire world is beholden to China when it comes to either finished product PPE and tests or the components necessary for PPE and testing. China continues to hold the cards, and will for the foreseeable future until meaningful manufacturing and distribution can be established elsewhere and scaled.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:49 pm
by olle
AirWorthy99 wrote:
For those who think that Sweden's actions during COVID are wrong, take a look at this article by liberal Thomas Friedman:


The upside of Sweden’s strategy — if it works — is that your economy does not take such a deep hit from lockdowns. It is unlike the strategy of suppression pursued in cities across America right now — as well as around the globe — where, when the lockdown is over, your population largely has not developed immunity and so most everyone remains vulnerable to the virus, and to a second wave in the fall.

Think of the challenge of New York City. Its hospitals would have been overwhelmed by the sudden crush of patients, so the months of lockdown of millions will surely, and vitally, have saved lives. But it has come at huge cost to jobs and businesses and with little progress to herd immunity — and with the prospect that the virus can come roaring back as soon as the lockdown is lifted, unless there is Chinese-level testing, tracking, tracing and quarantining those carrying the infection. And even that might not work.

Now think of Stockholm. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency — the nation’s top infectious disease official and architect of Sweden’s coronavirus response, said in an interview published in USA Today on Tuesday: “We think that up to 25 percent people in Stockholm have been exposed to coronavirus and are possibly immune. A recent survey from one of our hospitals in Stockholm found that 27 percent of staff there are immune. We think that most of those are immune from transmission in society, not the workplace. We could reach herd immunity in Stockholm within a matter of weeks.”........

......Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said in an interview with WCCO radio on Monday that “I think that Sweden is one model we need to look at, but it’s not the only model, but we surely need to have these discussions.” Because absent a miracle vaccine soon, said Osterholm, “this virus will not stop trying to infect people until we get it to at least the 60 percent or 70 percent level.”

Herd immunity “has historically been nature’s way of ending pandemics,” added Dr. David Katz, the public health physician who helped kick off the debate in an essay he wrote in The New York Times on March 20 and in a follow-up interview we did together.

“We need to bend with her forces — even when we as a species are responsible for unleashing them,” Katz said. That means a designed strategy, based on risk profiles, of phasing back to work those least vulnerable, so we gradually cultivate the protection of herd immunity — “while concentrating our health services and social services on protecting those most vulnerable” until we can sound the all-clear.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/opin ... weden.html

We are just avoiding the inevitable, we will all eventually become Sweden.

Guess who is not going to worry about a second wave in the fall? Unless a miraculous vaccine comes out soon, Sweden's approach to this will be the way forward, just that we are delaying it.


This is what start to be discussed in Finland right now. Until now very low number or infected and death but, when will it stop? The second wave in September will be huge if the country do not close again. Norway is probably in similar situation.

I guess that denmark will probably be considered as one of the best examples.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:59 pm
by Aaron747
winginit wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
It is pretty impressive how against China is to any kind independent investigation into the COVID-19 virus, and how it started and progressed. Now Australia is getting dumped on by them and China is threatening retaliation for Australia's statements and calls supporting having an open and independent investigation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-timeline

Tugg


They are up two creeks - A. they know they can't control the narrative if an independent investigation is conducted, and B. they don't trust anything done by the west to be independent. If either are the case they should just turn over any and all data they have - *that* will tell the truth. What was known, when, where, and how?


At the same time, what can be done about it?

Even today, virtually the entire world is beholden to China when it comes to either finished product PPE and tests or the components necessary for PPE and testing. China continues to hold the cards, and will for the foreseeable future until meaningful manufacturing and distribution can be established elsewhere and scaled.


I agree...when all the clamoring by right wingers a couple weeks ago started for Chinese reparations and various other demands, my response was the same. There is little recourse to make this done properly - for any grievance against any UNSC permanent member for that matter.

I’m just saying if the PRC has nothing to hide and wants these rumors to stop - they can put it to rest by putting it all out there.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:18 pm
by casinterest

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:21 pm
by PixelPilot
casinterest wrote:


How many are actual covid death and how many had it but died to other issue?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:26 pm
by casinterest
PixelPilot wrote:
casinterest wrote:


How many are actual covid death and how many had it but died to other issue?


Those are the deaths with primary cause being Covid as identified by the staff that declared the cause of death.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:28 pm
by winginit
Aaron747 wrote:
winginit wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

They are up two creeks - A. they know they can't control the narrative if an independent investigation is conducted, and B. they don't trust anything done by the west to be independent. If either are the case they should just turn over any and all data they have - *that* will tell the truth. What was known, when, where, and how?


At the same time, what can be done about it?

Even today, virtually the entire world is beholden to China when it comes to either finished product PPE and tests or the components necessary for PPE and testing. China continues to hold the cards, and will for the foreseeable future until meaningful manufacturing and distribution can be established elsewhere and scaled.


I agree...when all the clamoring by right wingers a couple weeks ago started for Chinese reparations and various other demands, my response was the same. There is little recourse to make this done properly - for any grievance against any UNSC permanent member for that matter.

I’m just saying if the PRC has nothing to hide and wants these rumors to stop - they can put it to rest by putting it all out there.


Completely agree. Pessimistically speaking, I suspect they have no real incentive to stop rumors or accusations of blame at the expense of opaqueness.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:31 pm
by PixelPilot
casinterest wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
casinterest wrote:


How many are actual covid death and how many had it but died to other issue?


Those are the deaths with primary cause being Covid as identified by the staff that declared the cause of death.


From he link:
New York: the numbers shown below include probable deaths (and, consequently, probable cases for the same number) as reported by New York City
Maryland: includes probable deaths, as reported by the Department of Health (Section: "COVID-19 Statistics in Maryland")
Wyoming: includes probable cases, as reported by the Department of Health

So I guess we don't know really how much.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:44 pm
by Tugger
PixelPilot wrote:
casinterest wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

How many are actual covid death and how many had it but died to other issue?


Those are the deaths with primary cause being Covid as identified by the staff that declared the cause of death.


From he link:
New York: the numbers shown below include probable deaths (and, consequently, probable cases for the same number) as reported by New York City
Maryland: includes probable deaths, as reported by the Department of Health (Section: "COVID-19 Statistics in Maryland")
Wyoming: includes probable cases, as reported by the Department of Health

So I guess we don't know really how much.

Just to be clear, the "how bad" it is aspect is based on "compared to the normal flu". As long as the same criteria are being used for both sets of data, then we really do know "how much". A lot of "normal flu" deaths also have underlying or other conditions that can and do contribute. The good thing about public data and science is that most of the time either things become treated with the same standard across the board, or where that is not the case the data is resolved to account for known discrepancies.

I am fairly confident that each health department is handling COVID deaths as they do and would have handled flu deaths. (It makes no sense to handle it differently and institutional processes tend to lead to that even for new things).

Tugg

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:52 pm
by zakuivcustom
winginit wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
It is pretty impressive how against China is to any kind independent investigation into the COVID-19 virus, and how it started and progressed. Now Australia is getting dumped on by them and China is threatening retaliation for Australia's statements and calls supporting having an open and independent investigation.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-timeline

Tugg


They are up two creeks - A. they know they can't control the narrative if an independent investigation is conducted, and B. they don't trust anything done by the west to be independent. If either are the case they should just turn over any and all data they have - *that* will tell the truth. What was known, when, where, and how?


At the same time, what can be done about it?

Even today, virtually the entire world is beholden to China when it comes to either finished product PPE and tests or the components necessary for PPE and testing. China continues to hold the cards, and will for the foreseeable future until meaningful manufacturing and distribution can be established elsewhere and scaled.


As I have said many times - I can only wish "western" countries will finally learn and stop relying on China making everything.

Hack, reparation for the virus? They probably can't even get reparation for those substandard PPE that China is selling!

Regarding Australia - I will say go right ahead and boycott Australia and move all those Chinese nationals studying in Australian universities back to PRC. The Chinese military will need to find a new place to buy milk powder formula, though.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:02 pm
by winginit
PixelPilot wrote:
casinterest wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

How many are actual covid death and how many had it but died to other issue?


Those are the deaths with primary cause being Covid as identified by the staff that declared the cause of death.


From he link:
New York: the numbers shown below include probable deaths (and, consequently, probable cases for the same number) as reported by New York City
Maryland: includes probable deaths, as reported by the Department of Health (Section: "COVID-19 Statistics in Maryland")
Wyoming: includes probable cases, as reported by the Department of Health

So I guess we don't know really how much.


That degree of uncertainty and ambiguity is widespread across many of the most common causes of death in the world, so nitpicking causes of death in this case is a meaningless exercise - the experts make the call that best suits the circumstances. A common example is cancer. Yes, it's clear that cancer may have been the cause of death in a patient, but in practice, it might have been a stroke brought on by the cancer. At the end of the day, you can only put down one cause of death in the documentation.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:06 pm
by PixelPilot
winginit wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
casinterest wrote:

Those are the deaths with primary cause being Covid as identified by the staff that declared the cause of death.


From he link:
New York: the numbers shown below include probable deaths (and, consequently, probable cases for the same number) as reported by New York City
Maryland: includes probable deaths, as reported by the Department of Health (Section: "COVID-19 Statistics in Maryland")
Wyoming: includes probable cases, as reported by the Department of Health

So I guess we don't know really how much.


That degree of uncertainty and ambiguity is widespread across many of the most common causes of death in the world, so nitpicking causes of death in this case is a meaningless exercise - the experts make the call that best suits the circumstances. A common example is cancer. Yes, it's clear that cancer may have been the cause of death in a patient, but in practice, it might have been a stroke brought on by the cancer. At the end of the day, you can only put down one cause of death in the documentation.


Well apparently in COVID case listing cause of death as covid grants you more money than stating other cause.
MY bet is, this is happening a lot hence I do not trust those numbers.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 000638001/

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:09 pm
by winginit
PixelPilot wrote:
winginit wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

From he link:
New York: the numbers shown below include probable deaths (and, consequently, probable cases for the same number) as reported by New York City
Maryland: includes probable deaths, as reported by the Department of Health (Section: "COVID-19 Statistics in Maryland")
Wyoming: includes probable cases, as reported by the Department of Health

So I guess we don't know really how much.


That degree of uncertainty and ambiguity is widespread across many of the most common causes of death in the world, so nitpicking causes of death in this case is a meaningless exercise - the experts make the call that best suits the circumstances. A common example is cancer. Yes, it's clear that cancer may have been the cause of death in a patient, but in practice, it might have been a stroke brought on by the cancer. At the end of the day, you can only put down one cause of death in the documentation.


Well apparently in COVID case listing cause of death as covid grants you more money than stating other cause.
MY bet is, this is happening a lot hence I do not trust those numbers.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 000638001/


Who cares? Honestly... who. cares.

80,000 deaths in a given country? 100,000 deaths? 120,000 deaths? Is there any sort of meaningful difference in retrospect or in response if there's a discrepancy no different from the discrepancies we've historically seen in predicting the number of casualties from past flues, HIV, or Ebola? I mean that as a serious question - people are dead - thousands of them in what is a colossal tragedy. Does the number change the hardship, the response, or the blame even if it's 25% off in either direction?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:14 pm
by casinterest
PixelPilot wrote:
winginit wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

From he link:
New York: the numbers shown below include probable deaths (and, consequently, probable cases for the same number) as reported by New York City
Maryland: includes probable deaths, as reported by the Department of Health (Section: "COVID-19 Statistics in Maryland")
Wyoming: includes probable cases, as reported by the Department of Health

So I guess we don't know really how much.


That degree of uncertainty and ambiguity is widespread across many of the most common causes of death in the world, so nitpicking causes of death in this case is a meaningless exercise - the experts make the call that best suits the circumstances. A common example is cancer. Yes, it's clear that cancer may have been the cause of death in a patient, but in practice, it might have been a stroke brought on by the cancer. At the end of the day, you can only put down one cause of death in the documentation.


Well apparently in COVID case listing cause of death as covid grants you more money than stating other cause.
MY bet is, this is happening a lot hence I do not trust those numbers.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 000638001/

Apparently? And this is based on what? The diagnosis and treatment are different. Covid-19 patients tend to spend a lot more time in the hospital than a run of the mill pnuemonia case, and really, how many pnuemonia cases were there prior to covid.

This is exactly why people need to stop watching fox news. They interviewed a physician that double spoke his way through an interview and then chose a headline that is not at all backed up by the headline.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:35 pm
by PixelPilot
winginit wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
winginit wrote:

That degree of uncertainty and ambiguity is widespread across many of the most common causes of death in the world, so nitpicking causes of death in this case is a meaningless exercise - the experts make the call that best suits the circumstances. A common example is cancer. Yes, it's clear that cancer may have been the cause of death in a patient, but in practice, it might have been a stroke brought on by the cancer. At the end of the day, you can only put down one cause of death in the documentation.


Well apparently in COVID case listing cause of death as covid grants you more money than stating other cause.
MY bet is, this is happening a lot hence I do not trust those numbers.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 000638001/


Who cares? Honestly... who. cares.

80,000 deaths in a given country? 100,000 deaths? 120,000 deaths? Is there any sort of meaningful difference in retrospect or in response if there's a discrepancy no different from the discrepancies we've historically seen in predicting the number of casualties from past flues, HIV, or Ebola? I mean that as a serious question - people are dead - thousands of them in what is a colossal tragedy. Does the number change the hardship, the response, or the blame even if it's 25% off in either direction?


I care, and anybody in his right mind does too.
If you use numbers to formulate wide range of restrictions I need to know the real reasoning behind it.
It's very meaningful at this time. In the long run maybe not so much.
I already posted a article about spikes of non covid deaths due to the scare of going to the hospital while in many cases hospitals were empty. Clearly nobody replied to what I posted cause nobody cares about those people. It's the covid that throws some of you into panic mode.
That doesn't soon like well being of people is the most important here which is repeated like mantra on this forum. Hypocrisy.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:45 pm
by winginit
PixelPilot wrote:
winginit wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

Well apparently in COVID case listing cause of death as covid grants you more money than stating other cause.
MY bet is, this is happening a lot hence I do not trust those numbers.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/fac ... 000638001/


Who cares? Honestly... who. cares.

80,000 deaths in a given country? 100,000 deaths? 120,000 deaths? Is there any sort of meaningful difference in retrospect or in response if there's a discrepancy no different from the discrepancies we've historically seen in predicting the number of casualties from past flues, HIV, or Ebola? I mean that as a serious question - people are dead - thousands of them in what is a colossal tragedy. Does the number change the hardship, the response, or the blame even if it's 25% off in either direction?


I care, and anybody in his right mind does too.
If you use numbers to formulate wide range of restrictions I need to know the real reasoning behind it.
It's very meaningful at this time. In the long run maybe not so much.
I already posted a article about spikes of non covid deaths due to the scare of going to the hospital while in many cases hospitals were empty. Clearly nobody replied to what I posted cause nobody cares about those people. It's the covid that throws some of you into panic mode.
That doesn't soon like well being of people is the most important here which is repeated like mantra on this forum. Hypocrisy.


But again, is a small percentage discrepancy going to meaningfully change your tolerance of say a restriction that's put in place?

If say in the Fall covid rebounds, if 25,000 more people die and another lockdown is proposed are you gonna say 'no way' but you'll accept it if that number is 35,000 people so long as the difference isn't hospitals potentially being overrun? There is always going to be a margin of error.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:47 pm
by PixelPilot
winginit wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
winginit wrote:

Who cares? Honestly... who. cares.

80,000 deaths in a given country? 100,000 deaths? 120,000 deaths? Is there any sort of meaningful difference in retrospect or in response if there's a discrepancy no different from the discrepancies we've historically seen in predicting the number of casualties from past flues, HIV, or Ebola? I mean that as a serious question - people are dead - thousands of them in what is a colossal tragedy. Does the number change the hardship, the response, or the blame even if it's 25% off in either direction?


I care, and anybody in his right mind does too.
If you use numbers to formulate wide range of restrictions I need to know the real reasoning behind it.
It's very meaningful at this time. In the long run maybe not so much.
I already posted a article about spikes of non covid deaths due to the scare of going to the hospital while in many cases hospitals were empty. Clearly nobody replied to what I posted cause nobody cares about those people. It's the covid that throws some of you into panic mode.
That doesn't soon like well being of people is the most important here which is repeated like mantra on this forum. Hypocrisy.


But again, is a small percentage discrepancy going to meaningfully change your tolerance of say a restriction that's put in place?

If say in the Fall covid rebounds, if 25,000 more people die and another lockdown is proposed are you gonna say 'no way' but you'll accept it if that number is 35,000 people so long as the difference isn't hospitals potentially being overrun? There is always going to be a margin of error.


I believe it would.
At least in places that the spread wasn't big yet everybody was screaming look at NY scaring people to oblivion.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:54 pm
by ArchGuy1
The Empire State Building in New York City has been lit up in various colors to show support for essential workers, with red and blue being the main colors. It is a great way to show support for those on the front lines of COVID-19.
https://www.6sqft.com/the-empire-state- ... esponders/

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:02 pm
by DLFREEBIRD
PixelPilot wrote:
casinterest wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

How many are actual covid death and how many had it but died to other issue?


Those are the deaths with primary cause being Covid as identified by the staff that declared the cause of death.


From he link:
New York: the numbers shown below include probable deaths (and, consequently, probable cases for the same number) as reported by New York City
Maryland: includes probable deaths, as reported by the Department of Health (Section: "COVID-19 Statistics in Maryland")
Wyoming: includes probable cases, as reported by the Department of Health

So I guess we don't know really how much.


what part of probable do you not understand?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:05 pm
by PixelPilot
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
casinterest wrote:

Those are the deaths with primary cause being Covid as identified by the staff that declared the cause of death.


From he link:
New York: the numbers shown below include probable deaths (and, consequently, probable cases for the same number) as reported by New York City
Maryland: includes probable deaths, as reported by the Department of Health (Section: "COVID-19 Statistics in Maryland")
Wyoming: includes probable cases, as reported by the Department of Health

So I guess we don't know really how much.


what part of probable do you not understand?


Probable is not definitive. Obviously.
What is that confuses you about it?

**I also explained why few posts above.

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:13 pm
by DLFREEBIRD
I thought everybody understood that during a pandemic in the hot spots autopsies are not being performed due to lack of staff. What am I missing?

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:15 pm
by speedking
olle wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
For those who think that Sweden's actions during COVID are wrong, take a look at this article by liberal Thomas Friedman:


The upside of Sweden’s strategy — if it works — is that your economy does not take such a deep hit from lockdowns. It is unlike the strategy of suppression pursued in cities across America right now — as well as around the globe — where, when the lockdown is over, your population largely has not developed immunity and so most everyone remains vulnerable to the virus, and to a second wave in the fall.

Think of the challenge of New York City. Its hospitals would have been overwhelmed by the sudden crush of patients, so the months of lockdown of millions will surely, and vitally, have saved lives. But it has come at huge cost to jobs and businesses and with little progress to herd immunity — and with the prospect that the virus can come roaring back as soon as the lockdown is lifted, unless there is Chinese-level testing, tracking, tracing and quarantining those carrying the infection. And even that might not work.

Now think of Stockholm. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden’s Public Health Agency — the nation’s top infectious disease official and architect of Sweden’s coronavirus response, said in an interview published in USA Today on Tuesday: “We think that up to 25 percent people in Stockholm have been exposed to coronavirus and are possibly immune. A recent survey from one of our hospitals in Stockholm found that 27 percent of staff there are immune. We think that most of those are immune from transmission in society, not the workplace. We could reach herd immunity in Stockholm within a matter of weeks.”........

......Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said in an interview with WCCO radio on Monday that “I think that Sweden is one model we need to look at, but it’s not the only model, but we surely need to have these discussions.” Because absent a miracle vaccine soon, said Osterholm, “this virus will not stop trying to infect people until we get it to at least the 60 percent or 70 percent level.”

Herd immunity “has historically been nature’s way of ending pandemics,” added Dr. David Katz, the public health physician who helped kick off the debate in an essay he wrote in The New York Times on March 20 and in a follow-up interview we did together.

“We need to bend with her forces — even when we as a species are responsible for unleashing them,” Katz said. That means a designed strategy, based on risk profiles, of phasing back to work those least vulnerable, so we gradually cultivate the protection of herd immunity — “while concentrating our health services and social services on protecting those most vulnerable” until we can sound the all-clear.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/opin ... weden.html

We are just avoiding the inevitable, we will all eventually become Sweden.

Guess who is not going to worry about a second wave in the fall? Unless a miraculous vaccine comes out soon, Sweden's approach to this will be the way forward, just that we are delaying it.


This is what start to be discussed in Finland right now. Until now very low number or infected and death but, when will it stop? The second wave in September will be huge if the country do not close again. Norway is probably in similar situation.

I guess that denmark will probably be considered as one of the best examples.


I doubt the above. Heard from my friend that Sweden is considered as The Black Sheep of Scandinavia. Always some problems with them.