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PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:24 pm

 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 12468
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:26 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Olddog wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
I never missed it. I’m just questioning validity of the numbers and believe they are inflated which is not unreasonable when you take into account how US counts this data. Now whether this number is big or small I don’t know.
That’s all.


What is your point ? You are endlessly arguing about the numbers without any substance just to push your agenda.....


If you can not see the potential dangers of incorrect data in a recession (or worse) type of event then you are part of the problem.
Lives of millions of people are spiraling into oblivion while media screams doom and intensifies negative factors.
If they are screaming doom on a inflated data then that is wrong. Call it cautionary I call it dangerous.
Some of you are obsessed with covid while completely missing everything else that will have a massive negative impact on society.

Mind blowing.

Aaron747 wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:

pot meet kettle.


Dunning-Kruger effect is incredible to observe in the wilds of homo sapiens.


No kidding.
Obsessing with covid while literally ignoring every other negative outcome of certain actions is exactly that.
"Your" drone shots are a perfect example of Dunning-Kruger effect. World is pretty where I live, I got it all so it is ok and so what that millions around are about to face actual doom. I can take pretty scenic drives and life is awesome so all red states are jelly of what we have.
That's the foundation of your thesis. That's your character. Your own words.

Oh and BTW did you hear that all Cali is closing all beaches. I guess you guys are not doing this great.
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/cali ... index.html


:lol: That’s not what Dunning-Kruger effect is. But thNks for playing. And yes, life here on the lovely coast is grand, not gonna deny it.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
GDB
Posts: 13779
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:30 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Chemist wrote:
The US murder rate is 5-10x that of Europe. If you want to compare Europe to the US there are other measures as well. March was the first month in 18 years that there wasn't a school shooting in the US.
Scores dying all the time in the US from murders. And then let's talk medical bankruptcies. For the poor devils on ventilators, a huge number of those who survive will be financially wiped out.
Sure Europe has varied outcomes, just as the US states do. But overall Europe is more peaceful, lower crime, and they have longer life expectancies, even though they smoke a lot more.


I think that's one of the only things to feel good about Europe now. Considering Europe has done rather worse than the US with this COVID situation, the lacks of beds and ventilators in Italy, France and Spain, and also deaths per capita are way much higher than the US when compared to Europe as a whole.


You keep telling yourself that, sounding like LBJ on Vietnam in 1967 seems deluded.
We have one big advantage, even the UK PM, who I am NOT a fan of, is massively rational compared to the orange clown who seems focused on one thing and one thing only.
(Come to think of it, one major driver of LBJ's great and deadly folly was domestic political concerns).
Last edited by GDB on Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1100
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:34 pm

GDB wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Chemist wrote:
The US murder rate is 5-10x that of Europe. If you want to compare Europe to the US there are other measures as well. March was the first month in 18 years that there wasn't a school shooting in the US.
Scores dying all the time in the US from murders. And then let's talk medical bankruptcies. For the poor devils on ventilators, a huge number of those who survive will be financially wiped out.
Sure Europe has varied outcomes, just as the US states do. But overall Europe is more peaceful, lower crime, and they have longer life expectancies, even though they smoke a lot more.


I think that's one of the only things to feel good about Europe now. Considering Europe has done rather worse than the US with this COVID situation, the lacks of beds and ventilators in Italy, France and Spain, and also deaths per capita are way much higher than the US when compared to Europe as a whole.


You keep telling yourself that, sounding like LBJ on Vietnam in 1967 seems deluded.


Not telling myself, the data says that, not feelings, not me:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
GDB
Posts: 13779
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:38 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
GDB wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

I think that's one of the only things to feel good about Europe now. Considering Europe has done rather worse than the US with this COVID situation, the lacks of beds and ventilators in Italy, France and Spain, and also deaths per capita are way much higher than the US when compared to Europe as a whole.


You keep telling yourself that, sounding like LBJ on Vietnam in 1967 seems deluded.


Not telling myself, the data says that, not feelings, not me:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Yes, it's all over and done with now isn't it?
Good lord....
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:40 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Olddog wrote:

What is your point ? You are endlessly arguing about the numbers without any substance just to push your agenda.....


If you can not see the potential dangers of incorrect data in a recession (or worse) type of event then you are part of the problem.
Lives of millions of people are spiraling into oblivion while media screams doom and intensifies negative factors.
If they are screaming doom on a inflated data then that is wrong. Call it cautionary I call it dangerous.
Some of you are obsessed with covid while completely missing everything else that will have a massive negative impact on society.

Mind blowing.

Aaron747 wrote:

Dunning-Kruger effect is incredible to observe in the wilds of homo sapiens.


No kidding.
Obsessing with covid while literally ignoring every other negative outcome of certain actions is exactly that.
"Your" drone shots are a perfect example of Dunning-Kruger effect. World is pretty where I live, I got it all so it is ok and so what that millions around are about to face actual doom. I can take pretty scenic drives and life is awesome so all red states are jelly of what we have.
That's the foundation of your thesis. That's your character. Your own words.

Oh and BTW did you hear that all Cali is closing all beaches. I guess you guys are not doing this great.
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/cali ... index.html


:lol: That’s not what Dunning-Kruger effect is. But thNks for playing. And yes, life here on the lovely coast is grand, not gonna deny it.


Of course it is you just can't comprehend it lol which is exactly what Dunning & Kruger meant when they described their study.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1100
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:44 pm

GDB wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
GDB wrote:

You keep telling yourself that, sounding like LBJ on Vietnam in 1967 seems deluded.


Not telling myself, the data says that, not feelings, not me:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Yes, it's all over and done with now isn't it?
Good lord....


Are you expecting or hoping for the US numbers to continue to get worse and at the same time the European numbers to improve so you can prove your Anti-US views?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
winginit
Posts: 2927
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:45 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Chemist wrote:
The US murder rate is 5-10x that of Europe. If you want to compare Europe to the US there are other measures as well. March was the first month in 18 years that there wasn't a school shooting in the US.
Scores dying all the time in the US from murders. And then let's talk medical bankruptcies. For the poor devils on ventilators, a huge number of those who survive will be financially wiped out.
Sure Europe has varied outcomes, just as the US states do. But overall Europe is more peaceful, lower crime, and they have longer life expectancies, even though they smoke a lot more.


I think that's one of the only things to feel good about Europe now. Considering Europe has done rather worse than the US with this COVID situation, the lacks of beds and ventilators in Italy, France and Spain, and also deaths per capita are way much higher than the US when compared to Europe as a whole.


There can be no question that in Italy and Spain in particular where hospitals were literally overrun they have by many metrics fared worse than say, the United States specifically for structural reasons and some degree of incompetence in their response.

However, it seems negligent not to point out that Europe as a whole but particularly countries where causalities per capita have also been relatively high have... older populations. Surely that's causation to some extent. Germany is the obvious exception but I don't think there's anyone out there who wouldn't say that Germany has responded to this crisis better than anyone shy of maybe South Korea.

Country || Median Age || Coronavirus deaths per capita (Worldometer)

Belgium || 41.4 || 655
Italy || 45.5 || 463
Spain || 42.7 || 525
United Kingdom || 40.5 || 394
United States || 38.1 || 189
Germany || 47.1 || 78
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1100
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:56 pm

winginit wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Chemist wrote:
The US murder rate is 5-10x that of Europe. If you want to compare Europe to the US there are other measures as well. March was the first month in 18 years that there wasn't a school shooting in the US.
Scores dying all the time in the US from murders. And then let's talk medical bankruptcies. For the poor devils on ventilators, a huge number of those who survive will be financially wiped out.
Sure Europe has varied outcomes, just as the US states do. But overall Europe is more peaceful, lower crime, and they have longer life expectancies, even though they smoke a lot more.


I think that's one of the only things to feel good about Europe now. Considering Europe has done rather worse than the US with this COVID situation, the lacks of beds and ventilators in Italy, France and Spain, and also deaths per capita are way much higher than the US when compared to Europe as a whole.


There can be no question that in Italy and Spain in particular where hospitals were literally overrun they have by many metrics fared worse than say, the United States specifically for structural reasons and some degree of incompetence in their response.

However, it seems negligent not to point out that Europe as a whole but particularly countries where causalities per capita have also been relatively high have... older populations. Surely that's causation to some extent. Germany is the obvious exception but I don't think there's anyone out there who wouldn't say that Germany has responded to this crisis better than anyone shy of maybe South Korea.

Country || Median Age || Coronavirus deaths per capita (Worldometer)

Belgium || 41.4 || 655
Italy || 45.5 || 463
Spain || 42.7 || 525
United Kingdom || 40.5 || 394
United States || 38.1 || 189
Germany || 47.1 || 78


I don't think median age can be a statistic to compare. Considering, for example I live in Florida, known to be the mecca for those who retire. The median age in Florida is 42, and the death per capita is 62, whereas NY's median age is 38.2 and the death per capita 1,212.

Many things need to be examined and studied after this crisis ends, but its quite interesting how the variations in rates among countries or states. Many things will have to be factored in before a final conclusion to this.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
winginit
Posts: 2927
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:03 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
winginit wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

I think that's one of the only things to feel good about Europe now. Considering Europe has done rather worse than the US with this COVID situation, the lacks of beds and ventilators in Italy, France and Spain, and also deaths per capita are way much higher than the US when compared to Europe as a whole.


There can be no question that in Italy and Spain in particular where hospitals were literally overrun they have by many metrics fared worse than say, the United States specifically for structural reasons and some degree of incompetence in their response.

However, it seems negligent not to point out that Europe as a whole but particularly countries where causalities per capita have also been relatively high have... older populations. Surely that's causation to some extent. Germany is the obvious exception but I don't think there's anyone out there who wouldn't say that Germany has responded to this crisis better than anyone shy of maybe South Korea.

Country || Median Age || Coronavirus deaths per capita (Worldometer)

Belgium || 41.4 || 655
Italy || 45.5 || 463
Spain || 42.7 || 525
United Kingdom || 40.5 || 394
United States || 38.1 || 189
Germany || 47.1 || 78


I don't think median age can be a statistic to compare. Considering, for example I live in Florida, known to be the mecca for those who retire. The median age in Florida is 42, and the death per capita is 62, whereas NY's median age is 38.2 and the death per capita 1,212.

Many things need to be examined and studied after this crisis ends, but its quite interesting how the variations in rates among countries or states. Many things will have to be factored in before a final conclusion to this.


I mean... a comparison between Florida and NY (NYC really) is comical no? Given the population density and the fact that we're talking about a highly contagious virus? Is essentially your only means of transportation over there in Florida a packed subway car? C'mon man.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1100
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:10 pm

winginit wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
winginit wrote:

There can be no question that in Italy and Spain in particular where hospitals were literally overrun they have by many metrics fared worse than say, the United States specifically for structural reasons and some degree of incompetence in their response.

However, it seems negligent not to point out that Europe as a whole but particularly countries where causalities per capita have also been relatively high have... older populations. Surely that's causation to some extent. Germany is the obvious exception but I don't think there's anyone out there who wouldn't say that Germany has responded to this crisis better than anyone shy of maybe South Korea.

Country || Median Age || Coronavirus deaths per capita (Worldometer)

Belgium || 41.4 || 655
Italy || 45.5 || 463
Spain || 42.7 || 525
United Kingdom || 40.5 || 394
United States || 38.1 || 189
Germany || 47.1 || 78


I don't think median age can be a statistic to compare. Considering, for example I live in Florida, known to be the mecca for those who retire. The median age in Florida is 42, and the death per capita is 62, whereas NY's median age is 38.2 and the death per capita 1,212.

Many things need to be examined and studied after this crisis ends, but its quite interesting how the variations in rates among countries or states. Many things will have to be factored in before a final conclusion to this.


I mean... a comparison between Florida and NY (NYC really) is comical no? Given the population density and the fact that we're talking about a highly contagious virus? Is essentially your only means of transportation over there in Florida a packed subway car? C'mon man.


Well, that did not stop the predictions: Florida is going to become 'like an uber-Italy'

Florida, America's biggest retirement hub, may be at higher risk for the novel coronavirus than other states.

"Florida is like an uber-Italy," Andrew Noymer, a demographer at the University of California, Irvine, told Matt Simon of Wired. "Florida is going to be a tough situation, I would predict."

His comments were based on a new paper by University of Oxford researchers in the journal Demographic Science, which looked into why Italy suffered so greatly from the coronavirus. As of Thursday morning, Italy has more than 35,000 known cases of the coronavirus and nearly 3,000 reported deaths — second only to China, where the novel coronavirus originated.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ays-2020-3
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
2122M
Posts: 1319
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:15 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
GDB wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Not telling myself, the data says that, not feelings, not me:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Yes, it's all over and done with now isn't it?
Good lord....


Are you expecting or hoping for the US numbers to continue to get worse and at the same time the European numbers to improve so you can prove your Anti-US views?


The fact is the US is about 2 weeks behind Europe. So yes, the numbers for the US will continue to rise at a rate faster than Europe. Those aren't anti-US views, those are facts. Use the link you sent to check if you need to confirm. Check the US peak of new cases vs peak of new cases in Germany, Italy, Spain, etc...
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:17 pm

winginit wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
winginit wrote:

There can be no question that in Italy and Spain in particular where hospitals were literally overrun they have by many metrics fared worse than say, the United States specifically for structural reasons and some degree of incompetence in their response.

However, it seems negligent not to point out that Europe as a whole but particularly countries where causalities per capita have also been relatively high have... older populations. Surely that's causation to some extent. Germany is the obvious exception but I don't think there's anyone out there who wouldn't say that Germany has responded to this crisis better than anyone shy of maybe South Korea.

Country || Median Age || Coronavirus deaths per capita (Worldometer)

Belgium || 41.4 || 655
Italy || 45.5 || 463
Spain || 42.7 || 525
United Kingdom || 40.5 || 394
United States || 38.1 || 189
Germany || 47.1 || 78


I don't think median age can be a statistic to compare. Considering, for example I live in Florida, known to be the mecca for those who retire. The median age in Florida is 42, and the death per capita is 62, whereas NY's median age is 38.2 and the death per capita 1,212.

Many things need to be examined and studied after this crisis ends, but its quite interesting how the variations in rates among countries or states. Many things will have to be factored in before a final conclusion to this.


I mean... a comparison between Florida and NY (NYC really) is comical no? Given the population density and the fact that we're talking about a highly contagious virus? Is essentially your only means of transportation over there in Florida a packed subway car? C'mon man.


So why is Florida supposed to be treated same way and completely locked down as NY then?
 
GDB
Posts: 13779
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:19 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
GDB wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Not telling myself, the data says that, not feelings, not me:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Yes, it's all over and done with now isn't it?
Good lord....


Are you expecting or hoping for the US numbers to continue to get worse and at the same time the European numbers to improve so you can prove your Anti-US views?


What? Not anti US, anti stupid yes.
You have been the one posting endless nonsense on here this whole crisis, probably more than any other single poster combined.
Despite that, you seem to have limited understanding of the issue.
And European numbers ARE improving, the way rational people understand it, that is rate of infections.
Same applies to parts of the US, the earliest and hardest hit states, even NY, however this is not over by a long way and the social distancing and shutdowns (which I am of course affected by and hate), are for now the key to maintaining this.

Some (I get it's a minority) of your citizens, notably supporters of Mr 'it's a Dem Hoax / 15 cases only '/ snake oil salesman - including some really dangerous variations on that theme, never got that, still are not getting it.
So even the cautious steps to reduce these measures in Europe, are at least not motivated by greed and re-election of a buffoon.
Let him hold his rallies, let's see what happens then, even if he doesn't, certain US states are setting themselves up for a second wave.

Like I said, it is far from over.
 
winginit
Posts: 2927
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:26 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
winginit wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

I don't think median age can be a statistic to compare. Considering, for example I live in Florida, known to be the mecca for those who retire. The median age in Florida is 42, and the death per capita is 62, whereas NY's median age is 38.2 and the death per capita 1,212.

Many things need to be examined and studied after this crisis ends, but its quite interesting how the variations in rates among countries or states. Many things will have to be factored in before a final conclusion to this.


I mean... a comparison between Florida and NY (NYC really) is comical no? Given the population density and the fact that we're talking about a highly contagious virus? Is essentially your only means of transportation over there in Florida a packed subway car? C'mon man.


So why is Florida supposed to be treated same way and completely locked down as NY then?


I'm not saying it should be... and it hasn't been so... sorry what's your point here?

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Well, that did not stop the predictions: Florida is going to become 'like an uber-Italy'


Nor am I talking about predictions. Stay on topic.
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1100
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:27 pm

2122M wrote:

The fact is the US is about 2 weeks behind Europe. So yes, the numbers for the US will continue to rise at a rate faster than Europe. Those aren't anti-US views, those are facts. Use the link you sent to check if you need to confirm. Check the US peak of new cases vs peak of new cases in Germany, Italy, Spain, etc...


Not 2 weeks behind, based on facts not feelings, we are testing much much more than Europe, we have already passed the worse part of the virus (according to all data). We have flattened the curve. According to all data.



GDB wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
GDB wrote:

Yes, it's all over and done with now isn't it?
Good lord....


Are you expecting or hoping for the US numbers to continue to get worse and at the same time the European numbers to improve so you can prove your Anti-US views?


What? Not anti US, anti stupid yes.
You have been the one posting endless nonsense on here this whole crisis, probably more than any other single poster combined.
Despite that, you seem to have limited understanding of the issue.
And European numbers ARE improving, the way rational people understand it, that is rate of infections.
Same applies to parts of the US, the earliest and hardest hit states, even NY, however this is not over by a long way and the social distancing and shutdowns (which I am of course affected by and hate), are for now the key to maintaining this.

Some (I get it's a minority) of your citizens, notably supporters of Mr 'it's a Dem Hoax / 15 cases only '/ snake oil salesman - including some really dangerous variations on that theme, never got that, still are not getting it.
So even the cautious steps to reduce these measures in Europe, are at least not motivated by greed and re-election of a buffoon.
Let him hold his rallies, let's see what happens then, even if he doesn't, certain US states are setting themselves up for a second wave.

Like I said, it is far from over.


Endless nonsense? Sorry to bother with reality and not panic driven posts. I had to at the very least clear up the air, since everything is panic, panic, panic.

Anti-stupid? Denmark is allowing schools to be open. Germany started easing the restrictions. Everyone in Europe is starting to open, so why are you only being anti-stupid with the US? maybe Anti-US bias. If the US is starting to open is because they see the same as the other nations in Europe.

Data suggest the US numbers are improving overall. Not going worse. Care to show me data that says that the US numbers are getting worse by the day? Base it on data, not feelings please.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
2122M
Posts: 1319
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:35 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:39 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
2122M wrote:

The fact is the US is about 2 weeks behind Europe. So yes, the numbers for the US will continue to rise at a rate faster than Europe. Those aren't anti-US views, those are facts. Use the link you sent to check if you need to confirm. Check the US peak of new cases vs peak of new cases in Germany, Italy, Spain, etc...


Not 2 weeks behind, based on facts not feelings, we are testing much much more than Europe, we have already passed the worse part of the virus (according to all data). We have flattened the curve. According to all data.



This is true, but Europe flattened the curve 2 weeks before us. Flattening the curve does not mean 'ending all cases'. It means there will be a slow decline in the number of new cases. Our peak was very high and a slow decline still means lots of new cases. Likely more than Europe, who's decline in cases started before 2 weeks before ours.

Therefore, and I can't believe I need to spell this out, there will still be more new cases and sadly more fatalities from this virus here in the US than there will be in any of the European countries.
 
GDB
Posts: 13779
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:25 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:26 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
2122M wrote:

The fact is the US is about 2 weeks behind Europe. So yes, the numbers for the US will continue to rise at a rate faster than Europe. Those aren't anti-US views, those are facts. Use the link you sent to check if you need to confirm. Check the US peak of new cases vs peak of new cases in Germany, Italy, Spain, etc...


Not 2 weeks behind, based on facts not feelings, we are testing much much more than Europe, we have already passed the worse part of the virus (according to all data). We have flattened the curve. According to all data.



GDB wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Are you expecting or hoping for the US numbers to continue to get worse and at the same time the European numbers to improve so you can prove your Anti-US views?


What? Not anti US, anti stupid yes.
You have been the one posting endless nonsense on here this whole crisis, probably more than any other single poster combined.
Despite that, you seem to have limited understanding of the issue.
And European numbers ARE improving, the way rational people understand it, that is rate of infections.
Same applies to parts of the US, the earliest and hardest hit states, even NY, however this is not over by a long way and the social distancing and shutdowns (which I am of course affected by and hate), are for now the key to maintaining this.

Some (I get it's a minority) of your citizens, notably supporters of Mr 'it's a Dem Hoax / 15 cases only '/ snake oil salesman - including some really dangerous variations on that theme, never got that, still are not getting it.
So even the cautious steps to reduce these measures in Europe, are at least not motivated by greed and re-election of a buffoon.
Let him hold his rallies, let's see what happens then, even if he doesn't, certain US states are setting themselves up for a second wave.

Like I said, it is far from over.


Endless nonsense? Sorry to bother with reality and not panic driven posts. I had to at the very least clear up the air, since everything is panic, panic, panic.

Anti-stupid? Denmark is allowing schools to be open. Germany started easing the restrictions. Everyone in Europe is starting to open, so why are you only being anti-stupid with the US? maybe Anti-US bias. If the US is starting to open is because they see the same as the other nations in Europe.

Data suggest the US numbers are improving overall. Not going worse. Care to show me data that says that the US numbers are getting worse by the day? Base it on data, not feelings please.


Panicking? Speak for yourself.
I'm bored, worried about my job, like many, though lucky in some ways.
And no, everybody is Europe is not starting to open and where they are not at the same time, in the same fashion, like I said, a lot of content not a lot of facts.

The UK is not starting to open yet, it may well begin to in the coming weeks in a limited fashion. Only today was that even mentioned.
Since the rate of infection has only just started to go from being flattened to what could be a decline. At least as measured as the report below shows, there is a lag in the reporting, mainly from outside of hospital reported stats, deaths in care homes/community.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52493500

And our PM is a Libertarian to a large degree, yet he is being extremely cautious since he says (never thought I'd agree with him), go too soon with this and we get a second wave.
In fact that tendency of his was likely a major factor in us not shutting down soon enough.

I know this as I happen to live here, am employed by one of the hardest hit sectors, clue; I live right near a very quiet LHR.
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1500
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 6:07 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:25 pm

PixelPilot wrote:


why would they care what a conservative weekly magazine puts out? especially when it doesn't have enough subscribers to be a paper anymore?
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6229
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:27 pm

Joe Nocera has the proper idea, despite many who would say he’s killing mercilessly


https://www.yahoo.com/news/lockdown-cri ... 36053.html
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6229
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:29 pm

2122M wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
2122M wrote:

The fact is the US is about 2 weeks behind Europe. So yes, the numbers for the US will continue to rise at a rate faster than Europe. Those aren't anti-US views, those are facts. Use the link you sent to check if you need to confirm. Check the US peak of new cases vs peak of new cases in Germany, Italy, Spain, etc...


Not 2 weeks behind, based on facts not feelings, we are testing much much more than Europe, we have already passed the worse part of the virus (according to all data). We have flattened the curve. According to all data.



This is true, but Europe flattened the curve 2 weeks before us. Flattening the curve does not mean 'ending all cases'. It means there will be a slow decline in the number of new cases. Our peak was very high and a slow decline still means lots of new cases. Likely more than Europe, who's decline in cases started before 2 weeks before ours.

Therefore, and I can't believe I need to spell this out, there will still be more new cases and sadly more fatalities from this virus here in the US than there will be in any of the European countries.


And far less than Europe in total which is a more accurate measure based on population. Western Europe has twice the deaths than the US.
Last edited by GalaxyFlyer on Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:35 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:


why would they care what a conservative weekly magazine puts out? especially when it doesn't have enough subscribers to be a paper anymore?


Better? :roll:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/brit ... s-n1194046
 
art
Posts: 3492
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:54 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Chemist wrote:
The US murder rate is 5-10x that of Europe. If you want to compare Europe to the US there are other measures as well. March was the first month in 18 years that there wasn't a school shooting in the US.
Scores dying all the time in the US from murders. And then let's talk medical bankruptcies. For the poor devils on ventilators, a huge number of those who survive will be financially wiped out.
Sure Europe has varied outcomes, just as the US states do. But overall Europe is more peaceful, lower crime, and they have longer life expectancies, even though they smoke a lot more.


Maybe somebody should finally realize that gun free zones are a joke.
Data is out there.


Mmm... a good joke, it seems to me. Here's the data from the funny gun free zone I live in. US data given for comparison.

UK homicides involving firearms year ending Narch 2017: 26 (UK Office of National Statistics)
US homicides involving firearms 2017: 14,542 (US CDC)

Sources:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... g-are-used

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/homicide.htm
 
DLFREEBIRD
Posts: 1500
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:54 pm

Did you read the article?

they bought ventilators to be used in hospitals setting when they were designed to be used in an ambulance.
physicians should be worried but, how. is that China's fault?
Seems like they purchased the wrong item. They are going to try to use them anyway, therefore the outcry and warning from physicians.

another nothing burger.
 
speedking
Posts: 152
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:03 pm

winginit wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
winginit wrote:

I mean... a comparison between Florida and NY (NYC really) is comical no? Given the population density and the fact that we're talking about a highly contagious virus? Is essentially your only means of transportation over there in Florida a packed subway car? C'mon man.


So why is Florida supposed to be treated same way and completely locked down as NY then?


I'm not saying it should be... and it hasn't been so... sorry what's your point here?

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Well, that did not stop the predictions: Florida is going to become 'like an uber-Italy'


Nor am I talking about predictions. Stay on topic.


Florida Chinese Virus data:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc ... db9b25e429

Italy Chinese Virus data:
https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... ent=psy-ab

Do your own predictions.

For those mathematically challenged, that I know from here:

Florida has about 20, Italy 60 million residents. Italy 3 times more.
Florida has 34k cases. Multiply by 3 equals 103k cases. Italy has 205k cases, twice as much per resident.
Florida has 1300 deaths. Multiply by 3 equals 3900 deaths. Italy has 28000 deaths, 7 times more per resident.

Current Florida death rate 20 deaths per day and decreasing. To reach Italy's death rate per resident: 28000 / 3 = 9300 deaths.
9300 deaths - 1300 already dead = 8000. Divide that with 20 deaths per day equals to 400 days to reach the death rate of Italy, even if not a single Italian would die from the virus from today forward and Floridians would continue to die at the current rate.

Pure mathematics, statistics, science.

Florida becoming an Uber-Italy? I don't think so. Just pure fearmongering.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:24 pm

I guess this is also more fake news.
https://twitter.com/jamesokeefeiii/stat ... 39776?s=21
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:34 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
I guess this is also more fake news.
https://twitter.com/jamesokeefeiii/stat ... 39776?s=21

Yup, basically.
I mean seriously, you are linking a quote from someone who LOVES conspiracy that is in turn quoting a generic person with no more expertise other than working at a funeral home. It's like going to a pilot for factual inside information on the running of the airline.

Personally I think this twitterer should be trusted as factual information:
https://twitter.com/Its_Stationary/stat ... 55840?s=20

Tugg
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DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:36 pm

Florida has 353.4 people per square mile Italy has 532 people per square mile. You're trying to compare apples to oranges. I'm surprised you didn't take that into account. before you started down this path.
 
2122M
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:40 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
2122M wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Not 2 weeks behind, based on facts not feelings, we are testing much much more than Europe, we have already passed the worse part of the virus (according to all data). We have flattened the curve. According to all data.



This is true, but Europe flattened the curve 2 weeks before us. Flattening the curve does not mean 'ending all cases'. It means there will be a slow decline in the number of new cases. Our peak was very high and a slow decline still means lots of new cases. Likely more than Europe, who's decline in cases started before 2 weeks before ours.

Therefore, and I can't believe I need to spell this out, there will still be more new cases and sadly more fatalities from this virus here in the US than there will be in any of the European countries.


And far less than Europe in total which is a more accurate measure based on population. Western Europe has twice the deaths than the US.


Deaths per million in population is the most accurate way as that corrects for population variances. However, the point remains that Europe is further along in the cycle than we are, so it's a bit early to be comparing stats and judging responses.
 
speedking
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:53 pm

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
Florida has 353.4 people per square mile Italy has 532 people per square mile. You're trying to compare apples to oranges. I'm surprised you didn't take that into account. before you started down this path.


I'm not comparing apples to oranges. The person who claimed Florida will become Uber-Italy did. Is it just because a lack of scientific and mathematical skills, or just to create panic or something, I don't know.

A scientific fact is that the rate of spread of the virus is very dependent of the density of the population in certain area.

That's why there are more infected in New York compared to Florida for example.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:46 pm

2122M wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
2122M wrote:

This is true, but Europe flattened the curve 2 weeks before us. Flattening the curve does not mean 'ending all cases'. It means there will be a slow decline in the number of new cases. Our peak was very high and a slow decline still means lots of new cases. Likely more than Europe, who's decline in cases started before 2 weeks before ours.

Therefore, and I can't believe I need to spell this out, there will still be more new cases and sadly more fatalities from this virus here in the US than there will be in any of the European countries.


And far less than Europe in total which is a more accurate measure based on population. Western Europe has twice the deaths than the US.


Deaths per million in population is the most accurate way as that corrects for population variances. However, the point remains that Europe is further along in the cycle than we are, so it's a bit early to be comparing stats and judging responses.


Farther in the cycle, or 2 weeks etc, doesn't mean anything really. The virus spreads fast and more people are tested, and isolated, that's what happened in the US. Yes our curve flattened later than Europe, but don't know why we should say we are 2 weeks behind if testing show that the virus is widely spread in the US and in almost all areas the curve has flattened.

As for the debate of Europe vs US.

In this forum many people told me, that the US was going to be worse hit because it lacked the same social safety net Europe has, and did not have universal healthcare. Turns out, Europe has done far worse, and now the argument is that Europe had it worse because of population density etc. That wasn't the argument back in March when all the doomsday scenarios were thrown. It did not happen so the best way to deflect is by saying the population density. It doesn't matter.

The virus will stay with us for some time, until complete herd immunity via vaccine or naturally. I am starting to think based on the antibody studies, we might reach herd immunity before we even get a vaccine. The country./region that had more exposure to COVID19 will reach herd immunity faster, so isolating, and hiding 100% of the population may turn out not to be the best way if we wanted to get to normalcy in the long term.

Sweden might not even be impacted with COVID on the fall, and perhaps parts of Spain, northern Italy and New York won't either.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
winginit
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 12:13 am

2122M wrote:
This is true, but Europe flattened the curve 2 weeks before us. Flattening the curve does not mean 'ending all cases'. It means there will be a slow decline in the number of new cases. Our peak was very high and a slow decline still means lots of new cases. Likely more than Europe, who's decline in cases started before 2 weeks before ours.


It should be pointed out that flattening the curve doesn't even imply reducing the number of cases compared to what could have been otherwise. It is merely a prolonging of the window of when people get coronavirus in order to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. That's it.
 
2122M
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 12:26 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
In this forum many people told me, that the US was going to be worse hit because it lacked the same social safety net Europe has, and did not have universal healthcare.


You are misunderstanding this argument. No-one is claiming the the virus will be more or less deadly due to a strong social safety net or universal healthcare. The argument is that the financial impact will be less dramatic on the citizens of those countries and they will be able to recover quicker, economically speaking.
 
winginit
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 12:42 am

2122M wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
In this forum many people told me, that the US was going to be worse hit because it lacked the same social safety net Europe has, and did not have universal healthcare.


You are misunderstanding this argument. No-one is claiming the the virus will be more or less deadly due to a strong social safety net or universal healthcare. The argument is that the financial impact will be less dramatic on the citizens of those countries and they will be able to recover quicker, economically speaking.


Also to categorize 'Europe' as one cohesive entity when it comes to responses to coronavirus is foolish. 'Europe' does not have a singular healthcare or hospital system.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 1:11 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
In this forum many people told me, that the US was going to be worse hit because it lacked the same social safety net Europe has, and did not have universal healthcare.


Not really capable of nuance, so this wrong interpretation comes as no surprise.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
GDB
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 1:34 am

winginit wrote:
2122M wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
In this forum many people told me, that the US was going to be worse hit because it lacked the same social safety net Europe has, and did not have universal healthcare.


You are misunderstanding this argument. No-one is claiming the the virus will be more or less deadly due to a strong social safety net or universal healthcare. The argument is that the financial impact will be less dramatic on the citizens of those countries and they will be able to recover quicker, economically speaking.


Also to categorize 'Europe' as one cohesive entity when it comes to responses to coronavirus is foolish. 'Europe' does not have a singular healthcare or hospital system.


Come on now, don't be all confusing! Only joking it's a good point. No one here is worrying about the cost of going to seek medical help.
Even the Scandi nations, often grouped together, as we have seen have taken different approaches with the virus.

Northern Italy early on was swamped, their world class health system could not cope.
Some have suggested local factors, such as culturally, larger families all living together, I don't know if that's the case or not.
France and Spain had it tough too, maybe local factors there.

The UK has 68 million in a small area, the mainland, N.I. a few small islands, really though most of the population is urban, in a central spine of cities, hence greater London, around 9 million was like NY hit first and hardest, next worse was the West Midlands, with Birmingham (4 times the pop. of it's US namesake) and surrounding areas.
Whereas Scotland is less affected, a big chuck of the landmass with a pop. of around 6 million.

There were exceptions, here is a warning to less populated US states, in a move that may come back to haunt them, the UK government allowed just days before the full lockdown, a major event, in a rural area, a big posh horserace meeting, to take place. Guess what area is now a cluster of cases way above the norm for that part of rural England?

Germany is seen to have, with customary efficiency, handled it well. A lot of testing, good infrastructure, devolved government (unlike the over centralized UK). Having a scientifically literate leader helped too maybe.

Further afield, though S.Korea gets plaudits for it's early testing and other measures, I cannot help but wonder if decades of civil defence, including against Chem/Bio attack from their mad, bad and dangerous to know neighbor has also helped, in mindset as much as anything. All those mass drills they do.
 
dragon-wings
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 3:20 am

In South Korea they reported their first Covid-19 case on the exact same day as the US did. Now today in the news it is being reported the South Korea has not had any new Covid-19 cases in a week. I guess it goes to show how messed up the US response was.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandras ... cf0925abf1
Don't give up don't ever give up - Jim Valvano
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 10:52 am

 
derLaffe
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 11:17 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
I think that's one of the only things to feel good about Europe now. Considering Europe has done rather worse than the US with this COVID situation, the lacks of beds and ventilators in Italy, France and Spain, and also deaths per capita are way much higher than the US when compared to Europe as a whole.

Current data is biased and more about testing capacities than about actual numbers, so I wouldn't be that sure whether U.S. performs better than Europe. By per capita cases, U.S. is no different from Italy, though better than Spain but worse than Germany or France.
Still, we will now real numbers only next year by comparing countries' regular death rates to those during coronavirus.
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 11:31 am

2122M wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
GDB wrote:

Yes, it's all over and done with now isn't it?
Good lord....


Are you expecting or hoping for the US numbers to continue to get worse and at the same time the European numbers to improve so you can prove your Anti-US views?


The fact is the US is about 2 weeks behind Europe. So yes, the numbers for the US will continue to rise at a rate faster than Europe. Those aren't anti-US views, those are facts. Use the link you sent to check if you need to confirm. Check the US peak of new cases vs peak of new cases in Germany, Italy, Spain, etc...


NY and Nothern Europe is 2 weeks behind South Europe.

Major part of USA is rather 3-4 weeks behind.
 
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lugie
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 12:35 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
2122M wrote:

The fact is the US is about 2 weeks behind Europe. So yes, the numbers for the US will continue to rise at a rate faster than Europe. Those aren't anti-US views, those are facts. Use the link you sent to check if you need to confirm. Check the US peak of new cases vs peak of new cases in Germany, Italy, Spain, etc...


Not 2 weeks behind, based on facts not feelings, we are testing much much more than Europe, we have already passed the worse part of the virus (according to all data). We have flattened the curve. According to all data.


No you're not. Once again, please check the link you yourself posted a few posts upthread before making claims that can be refuted using your evidence. According to that source (and leaving out city-states which aren't too representative):

Tests per 1M Population
UAE......................113,443
Malta.....................74,713
Lithuania...............48,771
Cyprus..................48,129
Israel.....................42,108
Estonia..................40,532
Portugal.................38,814
Denmark................35,665
...
Italy.........................32,735
...
Spain......................31,126
Germany.................30,400
...
...
...
USA........................19,311

I left out quite a lot more than city states otherwise this list would have been excessive, however the point stands - Europe (even though it is not one entity) by and large tests more per capita than the US.
Now, does the US test more in absolute numbers? Certainly, but that's not what matters, especially not if you want to claim that your test data indicates you're "over the peak" and have "successfully flattened the curve". Testing 5x as much as Spain doesn't help when your population is nearly 10x Spain's and you want to examine how fast the virus is spreading in your entire population.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 12:46 pm

lugie wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
2122M wrote:

The fact is the US is about 2 weeks behind Europe. So yes, the numbers for the US will continue to rise at a rate faster than Europe. Those aren't anti-US views, those are facts. Use the link you sent to check if you need to confirm. Check the US peak of new cases vs peak of new cases in Germany, Italy, Spain, etc...


Not 2 weeks behind, based on facts not feelings, we are testing much much more than Europe, we have already passed the worse part of the virus (according to all data). We have flattened the curve. According to all data.


No you're not. Once again, please check the link you yourself posted a few posts upthread before making claims that can be refuted using your evidence. According to that source (and leaving out city-states which aren't too representative):

Tests per 1M Population
UAE......................113,443
Malta.....................74,713
Lithuania...............48,771
Cyprus..................48,129
Israel.....................42,108
Estonia..................40,532
Portugal.................38,814
Denmark................35,665
...
Italy.........................32,735
...
Spain......................31,126
Germany.................30,400
...
...
...
USA........................19,311

I left out quite a lot more than city states otherwise this list would have been excessive, however the point stands - Europe (even though it is not one entity) by and large tests more per capita than the US.
Now, does the US test more in absolute numbers? Certainly, but that's not what matters, especially not if you want to claim that your test data indicates you're "over the peak" and have "successfully flattened the curve". Testing 5x as much as Spain doesn't help when your population is nearly 10x Spain's and you want to examine how fast the virus is spreading in your entire population.


That is one way to put it. You also left out 17 most populous countries in the world, just to put US in bad light. Germany is 19.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-pop ... y-country/

This is a worldwide pandemic, and there are limited number of test kits, USA cannot grab all of them. If 100,000 kits goes to the USA and UAE each, it will be huge % for UAE and micro droplet for the USA.
All posts are just opinions.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 1:30 pm

lugie wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
2122M wrote:

The fact is the US is about 2 weeks behind Europe. So yes, the numbers for the US will continue to rise at a rate faster than Europe. Those aren't anti-US views, those are facts. Use the link you sent to check if you need to confirm. Check the US peak of new cases vs peak of new cases in Germany, Italy, Spain, etc...


Not 2 weeks behind, based on facts not feelings, we are testing much much more than Europe, we have already passed the worse part of the virus (according to all data). We have flattened the curve. According to all data.


No you're not. Once again, please check the link you yourself posted a few posts upthread before making claims that can be refuted using your evidence. According to that source (and leaving out city-states which aren't too representative):

Tests per 1M Population
UAE......................113,443
Malta.....................74,713
Lithuania...............48,771
Cyprus..................48,129
Israel.....................42,108
Estonia..................40,532
Portugal.................38,814
Denmark................35,665
...
Italy.........................32,735
...
Spain......................31,126
Germany.................30,400
...
...
...
USA........................19,311

I left out quite a lot more than city states otherwise this list would have been excessive, however the point stands - Europe (even though it is not one entity) by and large tests more per capita than the US.
Now, does the US test more in absolute numbers? Certainly, but that's not what matters, especially not if you want to claim that your test data indicates you're "over the peak" and have "successfully flattened the curve". Testing 5x as much as Spain doesn't help when your population is nearly 10x Spain's and you want to examine how fast the virus is spreading in your entire population.


I meant in absolute numbers. As the poster above mentioned, tests kits and testing is not something you can do rather quickly. Considering where the US was in March, I would say that testing ramped up at miraculous speed. And soon enough I am sure it will be higher per capita, they expect that by June testing will be rather higher.

In any case, I understand there is no way to dispute the amount of death that has happened in Europe compared to the US. The whole of Europe plus the UK has almost more than double the amount of deaths the US has.

And even if in Europe people stopped dying, in order to reach the 128,000+ deaths https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries, its basically impossible at this time when deaths are reducing significantly in the US.

I have no agenda by saying that Europe handled this worse, some parts did better than others such as Germany, my point is, many of you were the ones saying that the US was going to be worse hit, and it did not happen and won't happen. Thankfully for us. Its not a matter of the US is better than Europe or vice versa. Things are not black and white, and even if you have the best and cheapest healthcare, nothing can prepare you or anyone for a pandemic.

In fact, I cited many times when you guys said that the US was going to fare worse, the study that stated that the US is better prepared for a pandemic, only to be dismissed. It seemed as if the study was right https://www.ghsindex.org/
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
zhiao
Posts: 477
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 1:33 pm

Q1 Annualized growth

China: -39% (YES, that's right!)
US: -4.8%
Euro-Area: -15.2%
Spain: -21%
Korea: -5.6%
Belgium: -15.6%
France: -23%
 
2122M
Posts: 1319
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 1:52 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
lugie wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Not 2 weeks behind, based on facts not feelings, we are testing much much more than Europe, we have already passed the worse part of the virus (according to all data). We have flattened the curve. According to all data.


No you're not. Once again, please check the link you yourself posted a few posts upthread before making claims that can be refuted using your evidence. According to that source (and leaving out city-states which aren't too representative):

Tests per 1M Population
UAE......................113,443
Malta.....................74,713
Lithuania...............48,771
Cyprus..................48,129
Israel.....................42,108
Estonia..................40,532
Portugal.................38,814
Denmark................35,665
...
Italy.........................32,735
...
Spain......................31,126
Germany.................30,400
...
...
...
USA........................19,311

I left out quite a lot more than city states otherwise this list would have been excessive, however the point stands - Europe (even though it is not one entity) by and large tests more per capita than the US.
Now, does the US test more in absolute numbers? Certainly, but that's not what matters, especially not if you want to claim that your test data indicates you're "over the peak" and have "successfully flattened the curve". Testing 5x as much as Spain doesn't help when your population is nearly 10x Spain's and you want to examine how fast the virus is spreading in your entire population.


I meant in absolute numbers. As the poster above mentioned, tests kits and testing is not something you can do rather quickly. Considering where the US was in March, I would say that testing ramped up at miraculous speed. And soon enough I am sure it will be higher per capita, they expect that by June testing will be rather higher.

In any case, I understand there is no way to dispute the amount of death that has happened in Europe compared to the US. The whole of Europe plus the UK has almost more than double the amount of deaths the US has.

And even if in Europe people stopped dying, in order to reach the 128,000+ deaths https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries, its basically impossible at this time when deaths are reducing significantly in the US.

I have no agenda by saying that Europe handled this worse, some parts did better than others such as Germany, my point is, many of you were the ones saying that the US was going to be worse hit, and it did not happen and won't happen. Thankfully for us. Its not a matter of the US is better than Europe or vice versa. Things are not black and white, and even if you have the best and cheapest healthcare, nothing can prepare you or anyone for a pandemic.

In fact, I cited many times when you guys said that the US was going to fare worse, the study that stated that the US is better prepared for a pandemic, only to be dismissed. It seemed as if the study was right https://www.ghsindex.org/


Using raw number is just bad analysis. Its bad math and leaves you with misleading stats.

You want to add up the raw number of Covid deaths in all of Europe to compare to the US. Population of all of Europe is about 750 million people compared to the 325 million in the US. 135,000 deaths in Europe vs 750 mil in population is 102 deaths per million. The US is at 193 deaths per million, and that gap will only increase because Europe is farther ahead in the curve.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 1:52 pm

^^ Wow, how weak is the actual US economy (not the massaged figures that get bandied about in business media) that -5% GDP results in losing almost 17% of the workforce?? (26 million jobs lost into ~157 million working adults)

Just reinforces the idea that DC and the WH had absolutely *zero* plan for shielding the lower and middle classes from economic effects of COVID mitigation.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri May 01, 2020 1:57 pm

Please continue discussion in Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - May 2020

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