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Dahlgardo
Posts: 391
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 5:46 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:23 am

Jalap wrote:
Let it be clear that if this is the objective, then the price will be that a number of children will lose a mother or father because the child infected him or her.

Losing a parent is bad enough, but how would it feel to a child if it realises that it was him or her that caused mother or father to become ill and die?

How many of those case are acceptible for this strategy? For I'm certain that this will happen. Not in huge numbers, but enough for a politician to be very aware of before making such a decision.


It will be interesting to see unfold.
I have 2 kids (3 & 6 y.o.) so my family will be a part of this "experiment", but I'm not worried about the kids, my wife or myself

Looking at it in a broader perspective, there's some merit to the goal to open up society again in small steps and let younger people and children be most at risk of getting infected.
It is emphasised that children and parents with underlying diseases or risks are exempt from sending thier kids to school now.
A lockdown can't go on forever, and a vaccine might not happen for a long time, so we have to move on somehow.

But interesting times to come for sure.
leave your nines at home and bring your skills to the battle
 
tommy1808
Posts: 12541
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:36 am

Dahlgardo wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Let it be clear that if this is the objective, then the price will be that a number of children will lose a mother or father because the child infected him or her.

Losing a parent is bad enough, but how would it feel to a child if it realises that it was him or her that caused mother or father to become ill and die?

How many of those case are acceptible for this strategy? For I'm certain that this will happen. Not in huge numbers, but enough for a politician to be very aware of before making such a decision.


It will be interesting to see unfold.
I have 2 kids (3 & 6 y.o.) so my family will be a part of this "experiment", but I'm not worried about the kids, my wife or myself

Looking at it in a broader perspective, there's some merit to the goal to open up society again in small steps and let younger people and children be most at risk of getting infected.
It is emphasised that children and parents with underlying diseases or risks are exempt from sending thier kids to school now.
A lockdown can't go on forever, and a vaccine might not happen for a long time, so we have to move on somehow.

But interesting times to come for sure.


I guess we all agree that we can´t press the pause button on the Economy for 12 to 18 month. The problem with Sars-V2 is the long incubation period, so whatever life you bring back, you may not know how good/bad it plays out until you have too many people infected to go all contract tracing and containment ... and you are back where you started. Plus of course that iffy thing that you can´t protect the 10 ~ 20% vulnerable population from seeing a mass culling if you can´t get to about 60% or so being immune very slowly.... you simply can´t protect a small niche of your population exclusively.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11623
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:42 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Dahlgardo wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Let it be clear that if this is the objective, then the price will be that a number of children will lose a mother or father because the child infected him or her.

Losing a parent is bad enough, but how would it feel to a child if it realises that it was him or her that caused mother or father to become ill and die?

How many of those case are acceptible for this strategy? For I'm certain that this will happen. Not in huge numbers, but enough for a politician to be very aware of before making such a decision.


It will be interesting to see unfold.
I have 2 kids (3 & 6 y.o.) so my family will be a part of this "experiment", but I'm not worried about the kids, my wife or myself

Looking at it in a broader perspective, there's some merit to the goal to open up society again in small steps and let younger people and children be most at risk of getting infected.
It is emphasised that children and parents with underlying diseases or risks are exempt from sending thier kids to school now.
A lockdown can't go on forever, and a vaccine might not happen for a long time, so we have to move on somehow.

But interesting times to come for sure.


I guess we all agree that we can´t press the pause button on the Economy for 12 to 18 month. The problem with Sars-V2 is the long incubation period, so whatever life you bring back, you may not know how good/bad it plays out until you have too many people infected to go all contract tracing and containment ... and you are back where you started. Plus of course that iffy thing that you can´t protect the 10 ~ 20% vulnerable population from seeing a mass culling if you can´t get to about 60% or so being immune very slowly.... you simply can´t protect a small niche of your population exclusively.

best regards
Thomas


The antibody serology tests can’t come soon enough.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2336
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:42 am

Dahlgardo wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Let it be clear that if this is the objective, then the price will be that a number of children will lose a mother or father because the child infected him or her.

Losing a parent is bad enough, but how would it feel to a child if it realises that it was him or her that caused mother or father to become ill and die?

How many of those case are acceptible for this strategy? For I'm certain that this will happen. Not in huge numbers, but enough for a politician to be very aware of before making such a decision.


It will be interesting to see unfold.
I have 2 kids (3 & 6 y.o.) so my family will be a part of this "experiment", but I'm not worried about the kids, my wife or myself

Looking at it in a broader perspective, there's some merit to the goal to open up society again in small steps and let younger people and children be most at risk of getting infected.
It is emphasised that children and parents with underlying diseases or risks are exempt from sending thier kids to school now.
A lockdown can't go on forever, and a vaccine might not happen for a long time, so we have to move on somehow.

But interesting times to come for sure.


The problem is that people are still not washing their hands. And now they're going to be touching their face more thinking a mask is the answer to their problems. If you're maintaining enough distance between yourself and others, a mask does you no good. The virus isn't an allergen like pollen. It's not swimming all throughout the air. If you're the average person you are going to pick up the virus on your hands, gloves, phone, etc. That's how you'll get infected. If your hands aren't cracked and bleeding, you're not washing them enough. Someone boasted that they washed their hands five times a day. I do that much in an hour. More if I'm cooking something. But I've always been obsessive with cleanliness. I don't remember the last time I got a cold and I've never had the flu.
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1146
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:17 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Dahlgardo wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Let it be clear that if this is the objective, then the price will be that a number of children will lose a mother or father because the child infected him or her.

Losing a parent is bad enough, but how would it feel to a child if it realises that it was him or her that caused mother or father to become ill and die?

How many of those case are acceptible for this strategy? For I'm certain that this will happen. Not in huge numbers, but enough for a politician to be very aware of before making such a decision.


It will be interesting to see unfold.
I have 2 kids (3 & 6 y.o.) so my family will be a part of this "experiment", but I'm not worried about the kids, my wife or myself

Looking at it in a broader perspective, there's some merit to the goal to open up society again in small steps and let younger people and children be most at risk of getting infected.
It is emphasised that children and parents with underlying diseases or risks are exempt from sending thier kids to school now.
A lockdown can't go on forever, and a vaccine might not happen for a long time, so we have to move on somehow.

But interesting times to come for sure.


The problem is that people are still not washing their hands. And now they're going to be touching their face more thinking a mask is the answer to their problems. If you're maintaining enough distance between yourself and others, a mask does you no good. The virus isn't an allergen like pollen. It's not swimming all throughout the air. If you're the average person you are going to pick up the virus on your hands, gloves, phone, etc. That's how you'll get infected. If your hands aren't cracked and bleeding, you're not washing them enough. Someone boasted that they washed their hands five times a day. I do that much in an hour. More if I'm cooking something. But I've always been obsessive with cleanliness. I don't remember the last time I got a cold and I've never had the flu.


The virus is actually swimming in the air about 15-20 feet around each person, at the least.
In Europe many people are leaving the confinement for a daily jog, so a university has done a risk assessment on many people jogging in parks and the risk of infections of a jogger following another jogger.

They concluded that there is risk of infection even beyond 20ft behind the leading jogger as droplets of saliva are propelled with each breath.

Image

Image

https://m.hln.be/wetenschap-planeet/wet ... ~a60aece6/
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:36 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Dahlgardo wrote:

It will be interesting to see unfold.
I have 2 kids (3 & 6 y.o.) so my family will be a part of this "experiment", but I'm not worried about the kids, my wife or myself

Looking at it in a broader perspective, there's some merit to the goal to open up society again in small steps and let younger people and children be most at risk of getting infected.
It is emphasised that children and parents with underlying diseases or risks are exempt from sending thier kids to school now.
A lockdown can't go on forever, and a vaccine might not happen for a long time, so we have to move on somehow.

But interesting times to come for sure.


The problem is that people are still not washing their hands. And now they're going to be touching their face more thinking a mask is the answer to their problems. If you're maintaining enough distance between yourself and others, a mask does you no good. The virus isn't an allergen like pollen. It's not swimming all throughout the air. If you're the average person you are going to pick up the virus on your hands, gloves, phone, etc. That's how you'll get infected. If your hands aren't cracked and bleeding, you're not washing them enough. Someone boasted that they washed their hands five times a day. I do that much in an hour. More if I'm cooking something. But I've always been obsessive with cleanliness. I don't remember the last time I got a cold and I've never had the flu.


The virus is actually swimming in the air about 15-20 feet around each person, at the least.
In Europe many people are leaving the confinement for a daily jog, so a university has done a risk assessment on many people jogging in parks and the risk of infections of a jogger following another jogger.

They concluded that there is risk of infection even beyond 20ft behind the leading jogger as droplets of saliva are propelled with each breath.

Image

Image

https://m.hln.be/wetenschap-planeet/wet ... ~a60aece6/



Booga booga. A bandanna around your face still won't stop it. And it doesn't dispute my point at all. Washing your hands frequently is your best line of defense.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11623
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:10 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Dahlgardo wrote:

It will be interesting to see unfold.
I have 2 kids (3 & 6 y.o.) so my family will be a part of this "experiment", but I'm not worried about the kids, my wife or myself

Looking at it in a broader perspective, there's some merit to the goal to open up society again in small steps and let younger people and children be most at risk of getting infected.
It is emphasised that children and parents with underlying diseases or risks are exempt from sending thier kids to school now.
A lockdown can't go on forever, and a vaccine might not happen for a long time, so we have to move on somehow.

But interesting times to come for sure.


The problem is that people are still not washing their hands. And now they're going to be touching their face more thinking a mask is the answer to their problems. If you're maintaining enough distance between yourself and others, a mask does you no good. The virus isn't an allergen like pollen. It's not swimming all throughout the air. If you're the average person you are going to pick up the virus on your hands, gloves, phone, etc. That's how you'll get infected. If your hands aren't cracked and bleeding, you're not washing them enough. Someone boasted that they washed their hands five times a day. I do that much in an hour. More if I'm cooking something. But I've always been obsessive with cleanliness. I don't remember the last time I got a cold and I've never had the flu.


The virus is actually swimming in the air about 15-20 feet around each person, at the least.
In Europe many people are leaving the confinement for a daily jog, so a university has done a risk assessment on many people jogging in parks and the risk of infections of a jogger following another jogger.

They concluded that there is risk of infection even beyond 20ft behind the leading jogger as droplets of saliva are propelled with each breath.

Image

Image

https://m.hln.be/wetenschap-planeet/wet ... ~a60aece6/


Bit of a problem with that study - it assumes following the preceding jogger in an identical path. Wavering even a meter or two to the left/right would drastically alter the encounter with the propagated cloud of exhaled particles, which will have progressively less density the further out you go. And I assume their study also assumed calm wind condition and flat ground.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:26 am

speedking wrote:
Aesma wrote:
Communism has of course nothing to do with it.

However all Chinese are brainwashed from birth, so the analogy with Germany is of limited use.


Got a red badge? Suggest get rid of it, the world is coming after them soon.


I think communism is a nice idea, but impractical. I also think there is nothing communist about communist China. Billionaires and communism don't go hand in hand.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:29 am

well if that's true about virus swimming in the air about 12 to 15 feet, those poor voters in Wisconsin and Poll workers are screwed. Wisconsin going to have an epidemic on their hands, and the supreme court will have blood on their hands.
 
Derico
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:38 am

The three key charts for the progress of the epidemic in South America.

Chart 1: how many days for infections to double
Chart 2: Daily virus death count
Chart 3: transmission reproductive capacity

Image
(graphs from Elpais.es, data from Elpais.es, Lanacion.com.ar)
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
dobilan
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:43 am

" I also think there is nothing communist about communist China. Billionaires and communism don't go hand in hand." - I think this is very much true.
Having been born in an ex-communist (socialist) country and having been with my job both in the US (WA state) and China (Beijing) I think that parts of China are more capitalist than parts of the US. Not to mention EU countries like DE or FR. Autoritharian state in China - yes! Communism? just an empty word.
Anecdotal, the only "true" communists that I've ever met were two ex-hippie guys from US that I've met sometimes ago. "Communist" countries were just bunches of people trying to make a living under inept governments.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:44 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
well if that's true about virus swimming in the air about 12 to 15 feet, those poor voters in Wisconsin and Poll workers are screwed. Wisconsin going to have an epidemic on their hands, and the supreme court will have blood on their hands.


Even people staying at home but let's say going to the balcony at 8PM to clap for the health workers are potentially contaminating each other...
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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lugie
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:44 am

speedking wrote:
I don't think so. The Germans were not all indoctrinated during the war and preceding decades, were they? The russian communists tried to do that in the eastern part of Germany afterwards with some success though, unfortunately still seen today.

The majority of Chinese are not stupid, I believe, they are just waiting for a good opportunity and facing world condemnation, this might be the correct time to do the necessary changes.


I know this is far off topic but this claim is outrageous...

of course Germans were indoctrinated - the modern understanding of propaganda was pretty much coined by what the Nazis did, starting pretty much immediately after Hitler's power grab in 1933.

School curricula were rewritten, the churches were co-opted, the news media abandoned its role as a balancing power and turned into a cheerleader for the administration and spread antisemitic, anticommunist and anti-opposition tropes.

All these youth organizations like the Hitlerjugend or the Bund Deutscher Mädel?
They may have seemed like fun leisure clubs that one could join if one wanted to, but in reality they consisted of indoctrination lessons, telling boys and girls as young as 6 or 7 years old how Jewish people were the root of all evil, teaching basic eugenics, and painting the Allies as arch enemies. Moreover, if a family was skeptical of sending their kids there, the parents could kiss their jobs and any semblance of respect in society goodbye (best case; worst case being a free train ride).

The indoctrination was so successful that in the spring of '45, there were still thousands of young Germans who were made to believe that this was a war they could still win (after all, they were part of the chosen master race) and who thus wasted their lives trying to "defend" their villages. Especially on the Western Front, where advancing American troops often took little towns peacefully if they didn't encounter resistance. However, there were often a few indoctrinated dumbasses left who tried to stop an advancing tank division with their ordinance rifle, leading to yet more unnecessary bloodshed.

So yeah, Germans were very much so indoctrinated by the Nazi regime.
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mfranjic
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:53 am


I came across an interview…
My impression is that this is a high level conversation and worth every minute of watching. The man is not only extremely knowledgeable and smart (a true genius) but also quite well-meaning and positive.

Dr. Shiva Ayadurai, the inventor of e-mail and candidate for the senate in Massachusetts, talks about the Sustainable Development Goals, signed off by the United Nations, called SDG-3 in 2015. Based on the ignorance of Medical Doctors on the immune system and nutrition, the UN planned to use the corona virus as a hidden enemy to scare the hell out of people in order to mandate vaccinations for the "common good". One could imagine oneself why the pandemic started in Wuhan, at a time when there were heavy protests against the pollution. Shiva explains how politicians tend to support the big companies by regulations that don’t serve anyone but these companies and that way also supporting mandating vaccines. How the "cashless society" is being used to for top down ruling, monitoring and even controlling expenditure. And where 5G comes in…

* Before watching I put in English subtitles (English auto-generated) so it was easier for me to follow than just to listen because, although audibly and fluent, the man speaks a little bit too fast for me so I couldn't follow him. I think some of You could also find it easier to follow with the subtitles.

Top Doctor EXPOSES EVERYTHING The Deep State Is Trying To Hide About CV

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf-qv9o8nq8&app=desktop

Mario
"Only a life lived for others is a life worthwhile" - Albert Einstein
 
N757ST
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:00 am

mfranjic wrote:

I came across an interview…
My impression is that this is a high level conversation and worth every minute of watching. The man is not only extremely knowledgeable and smart (a true genius) but also quite well-meaning and positive.


No, it’s not. And no, he isn’t.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:15 am

mfranjic wrote:

I came across an interview…
My impression is that this is a high level conversation and worth every minute of watching. The man is not only extremely knowledgeable and smart (a true genius) but also quite well-meaning and positive.

Dr. Shiva Ayadurai, the inventor of e-mail and candidate for the senate in Massachusetts, talks about the Sustainable Development Goals, signed off by the United Nations, called SDG-3 in 2015. Based on the ignorance of Medical Doctors on the immune system and nutrition, the UN planned to use the corona virus as a hidden enemy to scare the hell out of people in order to mandate vaccinations for the "common good". One could imagine oneself why the pandemic started in Wuhan, at a time when there were heavy protests against the pollution. Shiva explains how politicians tend to support the big companies by regulations that don’t serve anyone but these companies and that way also supporting mandating vaccines. How the "cashless society" is being used to for top down ruling, monitoring and even controlling expenditure. And where 5G comes in…

* Before watching I put in English subtitles (English auto-generated) so it was easier for me to follow than just to listen because, although audibly and fluent, the man speaks a little bit too fast for me so I couldn't follow him. I think some of You could also find it easier to follow with the subtitles.

Top Doctor EXPOSES EVERYTHING The Deep State Is Trying To Hide About CV

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf-qv9o8nq8&app=desktop

Mario


Complete garbage. Any supporting citations whatsoever? Yeah, nah.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
tommy1808
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:58 am

mfranjic wrote:

Dr. Shiva Ayadurai, the inventor of e-mail


You know something is bullshit when something starts of with a lie. He wrote a programme called EMAIL when electronic mail had been used for years.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
tommy1808
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:08 am

Aaron747 wrote:
mfranjic wrote:

I came across an interview…
My impression is that this is a high level conversation and worth every minute of watching. The man is not only extremely knowledgeable and smart (a true genius) but also quite well-meaning and positive.

Dr. Shiva Ayadurai, the inventor of e-mail and candidate for the senate in Massachusetts, talks about the Sustainable Development Goals, signed off by the United Nations, called SDG-3 in 2015. Based on the ignorance of Medical Doctors on the immune system and nutrition, the UN planned to use the corona virus as a hidden enemy to scare the hell out of people in order to mandate vaccinations for the "common good". One could imagine oneself why the pandemic started in Wuhan, at a time when there were heavy protests against the pollution. Shiva explains how politicians tend to support the big companies by regulations that don’t serve anyone but these companies and that way also supporting mandating vaccines. How the "cashless society" is being used to for top down ruling, monitoring and even controlling expenditure. And where 5G comes in…

* Before watching I put in English subtitles (English auto-generated) so it was easier for me to follow than just to listen because, although audibly and fluent, the man speaks a little bit too fast for me so I couldn't follow him. I think some of You could also find it easier to follow with the subtitles.

Top Doctor EXPOSES EVERYTHING The Deep State Is Trying To Hide About CV

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf-qv9o8nq8&app=desktop

Mario


Complete garbage. Any supporting citations whatsoever? Yeah, nah.


While he is at it, maybe include the same in the reply for:

Hollow earth: https://youtu.be/q09uPZJRsj0
Chemtrials: https://youtu.be/Ek_szx0cW5o
I don't even know what this is, all "they want to kill us" in one video: https://youtu.be/wZ5GIPmxcdY
WHO evil plan to depopulate the planet: https://youtu.be/IP0L2gjQ90E

And what not there is between tango videos. I am not sure I can expect much critical source work from that channel.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:56 pm

mfranjic wrote:

I came across an interview…
My impression is that this is a high level conversation and worth every minute of watching. The man is not only extremely knowledgeable and smart (a true genius) but also quite well-meaning and positive.

Dr. Shiva Ayadurai, the inventor of e-mail and candidate for the senate in Massachusetts, talks about the Sustainable Development Goals, signed off by the United Nations, called SDG-3 in 2015. Based on the ignorance of Medical Doctors on the immune system and nutrition, the UN planned to use the corona virus as a hidden enemy to scare the hell out of people in order to mandate vaccinations for the "common good". One could imagine oneself why the pandemic started in Wuhan, at a time when there were heavy protests against the pollution. Shiva explains how politicians tend to support the big companies by regulations that don’t serve anyone but these companies and that way also supporting mandating vaccines. How the "cashless society" is being used to for top down ruling, monitoring and even controlling expenditure. And where 5G comes in…

* Before watching I put in English subtitles (English auto-generated) so it was easier for me to follow than just to listen because, although audibly and fluent, the man speaks a little bit too fast for me so I couldn't follow him. I think some of You could also find it easier to follow with the subtitles.

Top Doctor EXPOSES EVERYTHING The Deep State Is Trying To Hide About CV

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf-qv9o8nq8&app=desktop

Mario


Inventor of e-mail? Er, no. Just a huge deception to impress the gullible.

Just the use of the words "Deep State" should set the alarm bells ringing.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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joeblow10
Posts: 334
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:20 pm

I found this to be rather concerning: the jist of a Chinese study finds many hospitalized with milder cases do not appear to develop sufficient immunity to fight off subsequent infection.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... ions-about

This would be seriously concerning for prolonging this pandemic and the need to isolate until a vaccine is complete
 
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zkojq
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:33 pm

More good news from New Zealand (my yesterday update which also showed good numbers seems to be deleted apparently):

- Total cases 1210 (+50) 26 Confirmed, 24 Probable
- In Hospital 12 (+0)
- In ICU 4 (+0) 2 of those are critical
- Recovered 282 (+41)
- Deaths 1 (+0)

This is a 4% case increase on the previous day, despite substantially more people being tested. Only downside is that unlike yesterday, the number of people recovering isn't outweighing the number of new cases.

Nice article in WaPo:
It has been less than two weeks since New Zealand imposed a coronavirus lockdown so strict that swimming at the beach and hunting in bushland were banned. They’re not essential activities, plus we have been told not to do anything that could divert emergency services’ resources.

People have been walking and biking strictly in their neighborhoods; lining up six feet apart outside grocery stores while waiting to go one in, one out; and joining swaths of the world in discovering the vagaries of home schooling.

It took only 10 days for signs that the approach here — “elimination” rather than the “containment” goal of the United States and other Western countries — is working.

The number of new cases has fallen for two consecutive days, despite a huge increase in testing, with 54 confirmed or probable cases reported Tuesday. That means the number of people who have recovered, 65, exceeds the number of daily infections.

“The signs are promising,” Ashley Bloomfield, New Zealand’s director general of health, said Tuesday.

The speedy results have led to calls to ease the lockdown, even a little, for the four-day Easter holiday, especially as summer lingers on.

But Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is adamant that New Zealand will complete four weeks of lockdown — two full 14-day incubation cycles — before letting up. She has, however, given the Easter Bunny special dispensation to work this weekend.

But with the coronavirus tearing through Italy and spreading in the United States, this heavily tourism-reliant country — it gets about 4 million international visitors a year, almost as many as its total population — did the previously unthinkable: It shut its borders to foreigners March 19.

Two days later, Ardern delivered a televised address from her office — the first time since 1982 that an Oval Office-style speech had been given — announcing a coronavirus response alert plan involving four stages, with a full lockdown being Level 4.

On March 23, a Monday, Ar­dern delivered another statement and gave the country 48 hours to prepare for a Level 4 lockdown. “We currently have 102 cases,” she said. “But so did Italy once.”

From that Wednesday night, everyone had to stay at home for four weeks unless they worked in an essential job, such as health care, or were going to the supermarket or exercising near their home.

A few hours before midnight, my phone sounded a siren as it delivered a text alert: “Act as if you have COVID-19. This will save lives,” it said, referring to the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. “Let’s all do our bit to unite against COVID-19.”

But there has been a sense of collective purpose. The police phone line for nonemergencies has been overwhelmed with people calling to “dob in,” as we say here, reporting others they think are breaching the rules.

After peaking at 89 on April 2, the daily number of new cases ticked down to 67 on Monday and 54 on Tuesday. The vast majority of cases can be linked to international travel, making contact tracing relatively easy, and many are consolidated into identifiable clusters.

Because there is little evidence of community transmission, New Zealand does not have huge numbers of people overwhelming hospitals. Only one person, an elderly woman with existing health problems, has died.


Quite simply, aggressive proactive action works.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... utType=amp


AirWorthy99 wrote:
I know many in these forums don't really know first hand the economic issues people are dealing right now. There are thousands going hungry because they haven't got a job. Then you got others who need to pay their living expenses, then their bills. This is what's happening right now, real time. Lets be a bit considerate of those. Thankfully for me I am not in that situation, but its very selfish to think that if I am doing good the others are too, when clearly it is not.


Well, to defer to a right wing talking point, I guess they should have built up some savings for a rainy day, shouldn't they? I did.

scbriml wrote:
Well that's all the scientific proof anyone needs. If Fox says it works, it's good enough. Wagons roll.... :sarcastic:


We should probably give him the Nobel Prize for Medicine, right? ;) I just find it hilarious that we're only talking about this because a very weak president is trying desperately to sound smart.

tommy1808 wrote:
just like you seem to be hell bend to kill as many US citizens as Covid possibly can, hence your constant push to get misinformation out.


Funny how the far right will do this and then turn around and claim to be Pro-Life. ;)

Aaron747 wrote:
Swedish hospital is halting hydrochloroquine therapy due to observed safety issues.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 38080?s=21


Well shit, maybe Donald isn't a medical genius after all! Colour me surprised.
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PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:45 pm

lugie wrote:
speedking wrote:
I don't think so. The Germans were not all indoctrinated during the war and preceding decades, were they? The russian communists tried to do that in the eastern part of Germany afterwards with some success though, unfortunately still seen today.

The majority of Chinese are not stupid, I believe, they are just waiting for a good opportunity and facing world condemnation, this might be the correct time to do the necessary changes.


I know this is far off topic but this claim is outrageous...

of course Germans were indoctrinated - the modern understanding of propaganda was pretty much coined by what the Nazis did, starting pretty much immediately after Hitler's power grab in 1933.

School curricula were rewritten, the churches were co-opted, the news media abandoned its role as a balancing power and turned into a cheerleader for the administration and spread antisemitic, anticommunist and anti-opposition tropes.

All these youth organizations like the Hitlerjugend or the Bund Deutscher Mädel?
They may have seemed like fun leisure clubs that one could join if one wanted to, but in reality they consisted of indoctrination lessons, telling boys and girls as young as 6 or 7 years old how Jewish people were the root of all evil, teaching basic eugenics, and painting the Allies as arch enemies. Moreover, if a family was skeptical of sending their kids there, the parents could kiss their jobs and any semblance of respect in society goodbye (best case; worst case being a free train ride).

The indoctrination was so successful that in the spring of '45, there were still thousands of young Germans who were made to believe that this was a war they could still win (after all, they were part of the chosen master race) and who thus wasted their lives trying to "defend" their villages. Especially on the Western Front, where advancing American troops often took little towns peacefully if they didn't encounter resistance. However, there were often a few indoctrinated dumbasses left who tried to stop an advancing tank division with their ordinance rifle, leading to yet more unnecessary bloodshed.

So yeah, Germans were very much so indoctrinated by the Nazi regime.


You are generalizing.
The only reason my family lives is because Germans, quite often soldiers would help them out during occupation sneaking food and medicne.
Sure they were working hard to convert the nation but luckily they never made it

On a side note the amount of US haters on this forums is similar to the Boeing vs Airbus crowd lol.
So funny to watch. No other country failures are dissected with such scrutiny lol.
I wonder though do you do it out of spite or to turn attention away from the failures that happen around you?
I'm not sure people realize that the more acts like this the better it is for Trump. The notion that you / your ideology or place of birth is somehow pristine and righteous in comparison to Trumps base is laughable to the core.
I'm one of those people that believes a political system shouldn't be bipolar so I really have no side in this cause I root for the middle man that at least at this point still doesn't exist in this political climate but some of you are ridiculous in your self righteousness and the more you pretend like you're special the more ground you lose.
Last edited by PixelPilot on Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:11 pm, edited 7 times in total.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:46 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
I found this to be rather concerning: the jist of a Chinese study finds many hospitalized with milder cases do not appear to develop sufficient immunity to fight off subsequent infection.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science ... ions-about

This would be seriously concerning for prolonging this pandemic and the need to isolate until a vaccine is complete


Yes that's very worrying. I feel I will be teleworking for a year...
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:51 pm

zkojq : I'm not convinced NZ is doing anything different than Italy, France, and Spain. It hasn't started to do it sooner either.

The problem is how to go from there to the return of normal life, with very few people immune in the population.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:08 pm

Aesma wrote:
zkojq : I'm not convinced NZ is doing anything different than Italy, France, and Spain. It hasn't started to do it sooner either.

The problem is how to go from there to the return of normal life, with very few people immune in the population.


NZ does have something of a natural advantage - it has a population of less than five million in a land mass almost exactly the same size as that of the UK. With 1/3 of the population living in the Auckland area, the rest is very sparsely populated, helping to naturally reduce the ability of the virus to spread. As Aesma points out, building up to "herd immunity" will be harder though.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:29 pm

The Norwegian Medical Association has stated that the current Coronavirus regulations of the Norwegian health care system is leading to more suffering and death than if the rules and regulations were not implemented.

The reason is that only 47% or so of other necessary medical treatment has been halted. There are people who are sick and need treatment who is not receiving it. At the same time very few people have been hospitalized and are receiving treatment for COVID-19.

There's of course a reason this happened, the health services had to prepare for the worst scenario of tens of thousands of sick COVID-19 patients. But the Coronavirus is now on a downward path because of the quarantine. The health services will have to adjust to take care of the rest of the population suffering from under these rules and regulations.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:33 pm

So now that the US is in the peak of this virus situation, and the reality in the ground shows us a realistic picture not based on flawed models I think the conversation should again be about reopening.

The hospitals in the US never became overwhelmed, and very unlikely they would anytime soon. NY did not ever need 50,000 ventilators, not even a fraction of that. The hospital beds were more than sufficient for the surge in demand due to corona virus.

Its clear that the US hospital system has weathered this rather well, and did not even need extra capacity to cope with this virus, despite what happened in Europe and other places.

The deaths from this virus are rather high but never will ever reach the projections, so we won't ever even see deaths that were expected even with strict social distancing guidelines https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... ashington/

The economic destruction of the virus is what I think should be swiftly addressed, and the best way is to gradually open back the country and the world for that matter. Now that it is clear hospitals can cope and deal with this situation going forward, no point in keeping these restrictions meant to have hospital capacity at bay.

I really think we should adopt measures such as Austria and Denmark, and slowly open up https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html

Before anyone says how we Americans value money over health, I think its only reasonable to think how the Danish and Austrian's are thinking long term. Last time I checked they weren't Americans, and despite what many people believe, being kept in this situation is unsustainable, for no country in the world, no matter how good the social safety net is, at the end its based on money.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:43 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
So now that the US is in the peak of this virus situation, and the reality in the ground shows us a realistic picture not based on flawed models I think the conversation should again be about reopening.

The hospitals in the US never became overwhelmed, and very unlikely they would anytime soon. NY did not ever need 50,000 ventilators, not even a fraction of that. The hospital beds were more than sufficient for the surge in demand due to corona virus.

Its clear that the US hospital system has weathered this rather well, and did not even need extra capacity to cope with this virus, despite what happened in Europe and other places.

The deaths from this virus are rather high but never will ever reach the projections, so we won't ever even see deaths that were expected even with strict social distancing guidelines https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... ashington/

The economic destruction of the virus is what I think should be swiftly addressed, and the best way is to gradually open back the country and the world for that matter. Now that it is clear hospitals can cope and deal with this situation going forward, no point in keeping these restrictions meant to have hospital capacity at bay.

I really think we should adopt measures such as Austria and Denmark, and slowly open up https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html

Before anyone says how we Americans value money over health, I think its only reasonable to think how the Danish and Austrian's are thinking long term. Last time I checked they weren't Americans, and despite what many people believe, being kept in this situation is unsustainable, for no country in the world, no matter how good the social safety net is, at the end its based on money.


Did you read your article at all? The deaths are lower than the projections due to social distancing, not because the virus is weaker than imagined. We are not at the peak. We are at an artificial bending of the curve due to social distancing.

However, if hospitals do have capacity certain restrictions should be lifted, however i am not a big fan of the Austrian and Danish plans. I think they open up a bit of chaos in their plan that will quickly accelerate the spread of the disease. Letting kids go to school opens up an enormous gaping whole especially considering they are the ones most likely to spread the virus.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:01 pm

FGITD wrote:
Maybe so, but Joann from down the block says it's a hoax caused by 5G, and she's had no less than 20 jobs in the last decade alone, in a multitude of fields.


Oh, well in that case, never mind. Anyone got any white-out? I need to take my name off this list...
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:07 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
So now that the US is in the peak of this virus situation, and the reality in the ground shows us a realistic picture not based on flawed models I think the conversation should again be about reopening.

The hospitals in the US never became overwhelmed, and very unlikely they would anytime soon. NY did not ever need 50,000 ventilators, not even a fraction of that. The hospital beds were more than sufficient for the surge in demand due to corona virus.

Its clear that the US hospital system has weathered this rather well, and did not even need extra capacity to cope with this virus, despite what happened in Europe and other places.

The deaths from this virus are rather high but never will ever reach the projections, so we won't ever even see deaths that were expected even with strict social distancing guidelines https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... ashington/

The economic destruction of the virus is what I think should be swiftly addressed, and the best way is to gradually open back the country and the world for that matter. Now that it is clear hospitals can cope and deal with this situation going forward, no point in keeping these restrictions meant to have hospital capacity at bay.

I really think we should adopt measures such as Austria and Denmark, and slowly open up https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html

Before anyone says how we Americans value money over health, I think its only reasonable to think how the Danish and Austrian's are thinking long term. Last time I checked they weren't Americans, and despite what many people believe, being kept in this situation is unsustainable, for no country in the world, no matter how good the social safety net is, at the end its based on money.


Did you read your article at all? The deaths are lower than the projections due to social distancing, not because the virus is weaker than imagined. We are not at the peak. We are at an artificial bending of the curve due to social distancing.

However, if hospitals do have capacity certain restrictions should be lifted, however i am not a big fan of the Austrian and Danish plans. I think they open up a bit of chaos in their plan that will quickly accelerate the spread of the disease. Letting kids go to school opens up an enormous gaping whole especially considering they are the ones most likely to spread the virus.


Absolutely all projections have been with social distancing. When Gov Cuomo said, we need 50,000 ventilators soon! was with social distancing in the projections.

All projections have missed by huge numbers the marks on hospitalizations. And yes we are at peak, and according to the 'revised' projections we will fall precipitously from the peak in the coming days.

As much as I want my kids back in school, I agree, schools should not open that quick, but they should either plan to do something in order to mitigate and get kids back to school, perhaps during summer.
Last edited by AirWorthy99 on Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:07 pm

casinterest wrote:
However, if hospitals do have capacity certain restrictions should be lifted, however i am not a big fan of the Austrian and Danish plans. I think they open up a bit of chaos in their plan that will quickly accelerate the spread of the disease. Letting kids go to school opens up an enormous gaping whole especially considering they are the ones most likely to spread the virus.


It might well be true, but I guess it remains to be seen.

Sweden never closed their primary schools and also introduces fewer social distancing measures, and apparently this has not (yet) caused an uncontrollable spread of covid-19.

I would not be surprised that covid-19 infected children in general are much less contagious than infected adults.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:27 pm

Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Start with regulating fast food and sugars. That will will reduce the strain on healthcare which might make it possible to create some sort of protection for all.
This country is the absolute worst when it comes to unhealthy lifestyle.

Over regulation is not an effective tool. Might as well mandate exercise for everyone.
No, the free market is what is needed. Also any public healthcare option does not have to be all encompassing. Look to the many national models that use a mix.

Tugg


Show me one that successfully handles 330 million people and add +/- 20 maybe 30 million undocumented
I lived in a country with public healthcare. Still paid for private as it was faster and readily available. Wait times for specialized treatments or tests would leave you dead if you wanted to go the free healthcare route.
I like the concept but I don't see it being successfully implemented without regulating certain aspects of life before hand.
It would work if you would exclude self obesity, smokers and etc from the coverage.
US for some damn reason now promotes overweight "stars" even though everybody knows what kind of strain that condition is to the system.
So nope. Not paying for this. Go fix yourself and I'll be happy to contribute.

***OBVIOUSLY people with medial conditions that cause weight growth are not in my exclusion list. But that should be obvious.

Not to mention in crisis like COVID-19 when you have people that are not following guidelines.
How do you regulate those so the system isn't strained?
Look how fast US managed to get extra beds and ventilators due to the fact that it's all a business not some incompetent overcrowded department loaded with politicians.
They should regulate this to make it more affordable.
Or (I know people like this) how come you can afford a BMW, $1000 iphone, 100" TV with total TV / Internet / Streaming bill of $300 + and not healthcare? Is just a matter of priority. Lower the cost for greater accessibility, protect those with lowest income and we're good. All depends on ones priorities. But you can't fix vain and shallowness. Here's your problem.

I really don't think that public healthcare in this day of age can work unless you regulate certain aspects of life.
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Last edited by PixelPilot on Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:39 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:32 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Absolutely all projections have been with social distancing.

You are right but.... The issue is how whatever model was used handled the impact of social distancing.
In states more populous than the District, that vast gap in planning and modeling could mean a life-or-death difference for tens of thousands of people.

LaQuandra S. Nesbitt, director of the District’s Department of Health, explained how the city’s leaders chose their model. It’s called CHIME and was created by researchers at the University of Pennsylvania.

“We felt that a model that determined the District would have essentially no medical surge needs was not indicative of what we anticipated would be our reality in the District and thought that a model that did not overestimate the impact of social distancing in the United States” was the right one, Nesbitt said.

In the two weeks since IHME’s model was originally released — the researchers announced revisions Monday — it has been criticized by some experts as overly optimistic. But even critics are quick to note that in the absence of any tool offered by the federal government and with no other model offering nationwide state-by-state estimates, IHME could be a lifesaver.

[...]
Most epidemiological models look at different populations that interact in an outbreak — people susceptible to infection, those who are infectious and those already infected who go on to die or recover.

Funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the IHME model embraces an entirely different statistical approach, taking the trending curve of deaths from China, and “fitting” that curve to emerging death data from U.S. cities and counties to predict what might come next.

For that reason, many experts saw IHME as overly optimistic when it was launched March 26. Few U.S. states or cities are taking action as drastic as what was adopted in Wuhan, China — the birthplace of the coronavirus pandemic — or even Northern Italy in locking down residents.

Another big difference between IHME and other models is a fundamental assumption about how effective social distancing can be. The creator of IHME’s model, Christopher Murray, said many state models assume that social distancing will only slow or reduce transmission to some degree. The IHME model, drawing from the example of Wuhan, assumes policies such as social distancing and stay-at-home orders, can effectively reduce transmission to the point where an epidemic — at least in its first wave — is actually brought under control by authorities.

At the White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing Monday, health officials said they thought it was possible to have fewer deaths than have been projected by models, because of the extreme social distancing efforts being undertaken by Americans.

“Models are good, they help us to make projections. But as you get data in, you modify your model,” said Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “I don’t accept everyday we’re going to have to have 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... el-agrees/

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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:35 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Absolutely all projections have been with social distancing. When Gov Cuomo said, we need 50,000 ventilators soon! was with social distancing in


You keep saying this, yet have not told us where you are getting your information. There were a lot of models - major institutions and medical universities were all competing to get models out. As I asked last time this came up:

Without a detailed breakdown of the inputs into a model, you can't simply say 'they took distancing into account' - sure, maybe that was part of the model, but to what extent? What type of distancing was modeled - 2 meters, 10 meters, with mask or without? Still going to the supermarket or 100% of population doing home delivery and sanitization of deliveries? What percent implementation and success rate? What delineation between age groups and rural/urban demographics?

We cannot simply take hasty generalizations at face value without more nuance and detail. What models are you talking about? Do you know why revisions were made?
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:36 pm

WHO and CDC never discussed providing international test kits to the US, global health agency says

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/health/w ... index.html


It’s an older article from March 18. I hadn’t seen it, but it answered a couple of questions of mine and raised a few others.

Apparently, there’s no such thing as a “WHO test kit”.
Last edited by PPVRA on Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:37 pm

 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:40 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Absolutely all projections have been with social distancing. When Gov Cuomo said, we need 50,000 ventilators soon! was with social distancing in


You keep saying this, yet have not told us where you are getting your information. There were a lot of models - major institutions and medical universities were all competing to get models out. As I asked last time this came up:

Without a detailed breakdown of the inputs into a model, you can't simply say 'they took distancing into account' - sure, maybe that was part of the model, but to what extent? What type of distancing was modeled - 2 meters, 10 meters, with mask or without? Still going to the supermarket or 100% of population doing home delivery and sanitization of deliveries? What percent implementation and success rate? What delineation between age groups and rural/urban demographics?

We cannot simply take hasty generalizations at face value without more nuance and detail. What models are you talking about? Do you know why revisions were made?


All models for weeks all, have taken into account social distancing. The models that did not take into account said there would be up to 2 million Americans dying from COVID19. I am not going to try to search past post in these forums or past projections on google, but all mainstream modeling took into account social distancing.

Now, to be fair, perhaps, just perhaps social distancing was taken more seriously than what was expected here in the US. Even there, the Chinese, Italians, Spanish instituted far harsher restrictions than the normal person in NYC experienced.

Don't know why you need to keep digging, the projections all were wrong, they are admitting this, that's why they keep revising it downwards.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:43 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Absolutely all projections have been with social distancing. When Gov Cuomo said, we need 50,000 ventilators soon! was with social distancing in


You keep saying this, yet have not told us where you are getting your information. There were a lot of models - major institutions and medical universities were all competing to get models out. As I asked last time this came up:

Without a detailed breakdown of the inputs into a model, you can't simply say 'they took distancing into account' - sure, maybe that was part of the model, but to what extent? What type of distancing was modeled - 2 meters, 10 meters, with mask or without? Still going to the supermarket or 100% of population doing home delivery and sanitization of deliveries? What percent implementation and success rate? What delineation between age groups and rural/urban demographics?

We cannot simply take hasty generalizations at face value without more nuance and detail. What models are you talking about? Do you know why revisions were made?


All models for weeks all, have taken into account social distancing. The models that did not take into account said there would be up to 2 million Americans dying from COVID19. I am not going to try to search past post in these forums or past projections on google, but all mainstream modeling took into account social distancing.

Now, to be fair, perhaps, just perhaps social distancing was taken more seriously than what was expected here in the US. Even there, the Chinese, Italians, Spanish instituted far harsher restrictions than the normal person in NYC experienced.

Don't know why you need to keep digging, the projections all were wrong, they are admitting this, that's why they keep revising it downwards.


Exactly, is almost as people are disappointed that it's getting better / it is not as bad lol.
All that "obvious" how US is the worst makes no sense right now so some have an issue.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:45 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Absolutely all projections have been with social distancing. When Gov Cuomo said, we need 50,000 ventilators soon! was with social distancing in


You keep saying this, yet have not told us where you are getting your information. There were a lot of models - major institutions and medical universities were all competing to get models out. As I asked last time this came up:

Without a detailed breakdown of the inputs into a model, you can't simply say 'they took distancing into account' - sure, maybe that was part of the model, but to what extent? What type of distancing was modeled - 2 meters, 10 meters, with mask or without? Still going to the supermarket or 100% of population doing home delivery and sanitization of deliveries? What percent implementation and success rate? What delineation between age groups and rural/urban demographics?

We cannot simply take hasty generalizations at face value without more nuance and detail. What models are you talking about? Do you know why revisions were made?


All models for weeks all, have taken into account social distancing. The models that did not take into account said there would be up to 2 million Americans dying from COVID19. I am not going to try to search past post in these forums or past projections on google, but all mainstream modeling took into account social distancing.

Now, to be fair, perhaps, just perhaps social distancing was taken more seriously than what was expected here in the US. Even there, the Chinese, Italians, Spanish instituted far harsher restrictions than the normal person in NYC experienced.

Don't know why you need to keep digging, the projections all were wrong, they are admitting this, that's why they keep revising it downwards.


Yes, but you’re saying this insinuating that it proves something. We still haven’t heard what ‘all models took distancing into account’ means (that statement alone means nothing given the massive number of variables), or if you know how the models were constructed. How do you know? What have your sources been? What do you think you are proving?
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:47 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

You keep saying this, yet have not told us where you are getting your information. There were a lot of models - major institutions and medical universities were all competing to get models out. As I asked last time this came up:

Without a detailed breakdown of the inputs into a model, you can't simply say 'they took distancing into account' - sure, maybe that was part of the model, but to what extent? What type of distancing was modeled - 2 meters, 10 meters, with mask or without? Still going to the supermarket or 100% of population doing home delivery and sanitization of deliveries? What percent implementation and success rate? What delineation between age groups and rural/urban demographics?

We cannot simply take hasty generalizations at face value without more nuance and detail. What models are you talking about? Do you know why revisions were made?


All models for weeks all, have taken into account social distancing. The models that did not take into account said there would be up to 2 million Americans dying from COVID19. I am not going to try to search past post in these forums or past projections on google, but all mainstream modeling took into account social distancing.

Now, to be fair, perhaps, just perhaps social distancing was taken more seriously than what was expected here in the US. Even there, the Chinese, Italians, Spanish instituted far harsher restrictions than the normal person in NYC experienced.

Don't know why you need to keep digging, the projections all were wrong, they are admitting this, that's why they keep revising it downwards.


Exactly, is almost as people are disappointed that it's getting better / it is not as bad lol.
All that "obvious" how US is the worst makes no sense right now so some have an issue.


You are putting words in everyone’s mouth from your imagination. Many here have stated on various pages of this thread that the improved situation is good news. Find an example that said the opposite and show us..??
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:52 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

You keep saying this, yet have not told us where you are getting your information. There were a lot of models - major institutions and medical universities were all competing to get models out. As I asked last time this came up:

Without a detailed breakdown of the inputs into a model, you can't simply say 'they took distancing into account' - sure, maybe that was part of the model, but to what extent? What type of distancing was modeled - 2 meters, 10 meters, with mask or without? Still going to the supermarket or 100% of population doing home delivery and sanitization of deliveries? What percent implementation and success rate? What delineation between age groups and rural/urban demographics?

We cannot simply take hasty generalizations at face value without more nuance and detail. What models are you talking about? Do you know why revisions were made?


All models for weeks all, have taken into account social distancing. The models that did not take into account said there would be up to 2 million Americans dying from COVID19. I am not going to try to search past post in these forums or past projections on google, but all mainstream modeling took into account social distancing.

Now, to be fair, perhaps, just perhaps social distancing was taken more seriously than what was expected here in the US. Even there, the Chinese, Italians, Spanish instituted far harsher restrictions than the normal person in NYC experienced.

Don't know why you need to keep digging, the projections all were wrong, they are admitting this, that's why they keep revising it downwards.


Yes, but you’re saying this insinuating that it proves something. We still haven’t heard what ‘all models took distancing into account’ means (that statement alone means nothing given the massive number of variables), or if you know how the models were constructed. How do you know? What have your sources been? What do you think you are proving?


I have seen many news conferences, from governors, from the WH, all said the models were based on keeping social distancing in place. Those same models said that hospitals will be past capacity.

Don't understand your fixation on this.

I am not proving nothing, and I am not promoting no conspiracy theory. My point here is we need to open up this country, my opinion we have caused more damage than the virus, considering what measures we have taken and the real situation in the ground.

Everyone including yourself said that the social distancing was to not overwhelm hospital capacity. I know its hard to admit that it did not occur, and instead of being happy we need to dig in and say they were necessary.

It seems they weren't, at least not that extreme at the cost of destroying an entire economy and millions without jobs and going hungry.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3380
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:53 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Absolutely all projections have been with social distancing. When Gov Cuomo said, we need 50,000 ventilators soon! was with social distancing in


You keep saying this, yet have not told us where you are getting your information. There were a lot of models - major institutions and medical universities were all competing to get models out. As I asked last time this came up:

Without a detailed breakdown of the inputs into a model, you can't simply say 'they took distancing into account' - sure, maybe that was part of the model, but to what extent? What type of distancing was modeled - 2 meters, 10 meters, with mask or without? Still going to the supermarket or 100% of population doing home delivery and sanitization of deliveries? What percent implementation and success rate? What delineation between age groups and rural/urban demographics?

We cannot simply take hasty generalizations at face value without more nuance and detail. What models are you talking about? Do you know why revisions were made?


All models for weeks all, have taken into account social distancing. The models that did not take into account said there would be up to 2 million Americans dying from COVID19. I am not going to try to search past post in these forums or past projections on google, but all mainstream modeling took into account social distancing.

Now, to be fair, perhaps, just perhaps social distancing was taken more seriously than what was expected here in the US. Even there, the Chinese, Italians, Spanish instituted far harsher restrictions than the normal person in NYC experienced.

Don't know why you need to keep digging, the projections all were wrong, they are admitting this, that's why they keep revising it downwards.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/politics ... index.html

And it was specifically mentioned that they can adjust the toll lower only bc more people are going social distancing than expected.

I seriously don't understand your posts. You almost say that US should had just let everything stayed open and let the outbreak ran its course, despite all reports that it would be disastrous to do so.

Sigh...better be safe than sorry is all I will say.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:56 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Everyone including yourself said that the social distancing was to not overwhelm hospital capacity. I know its hard to admit that it did not occur, and instead of being happy we need to dig in and say they were necessary.

It seems they weren't


Stunning statement - what support do you have for this sweeping conclusion? :hypnotized:
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1045
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:57 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

You keep saying this, yet have not told us where you are getting your information. There were a lot of models - major institutions and medical universities were all competing to get models out. As I asked last time this came up:

Without a detailed breakdown of the inputs into a model, you can't simply say 'they took distancing into account' - sure, maybe that was part of the model, but to what extent? What type of distancing was modeled - 2 meters, 10 meters, with mask or without? Still going to the supermarket or 100% of population doing home delivery and sanitization of deliveries? What percent implementation and success rate? What delineation between age groups and rural/urban demographics?

We cannot simply take hasty generalizations at face value without more nuance and detail. What models are you talking about? Do you know why revisions were made?


All models for weeks all, have taken into account social distancing. The models that did not take into account said there would be up to 2 million Americans dying from COVID19. I am not going to try to search past post in these forums or past projections on google, but all mainstream modeling took into account social distancing.

Now, to be fair, perhaps, just perhaps social distancing was taken more seriously than what was expected here in the US. Even there, the Chinese, Italians, Spanish instituted far harsher restrictions than the normal person in NYC experienced.

Don't know why you need to keep digging, the projections all were wrong, they are admitting this, that's why they keep revising it downwards.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/politics ... index.html

And it was specifically mentioned that they can adjust the toll lower only bc more people are going social distancing than expected.

I seriously don't understand your posts. You almost say that US should had just let everything stayed open and let the outbreak ran its course, despite all reports that it would be disastrous to do so.

Sigh...better be safe than sorry is all I will say.


Not saying everything had to stay open. Not saying it was a mistake. Just that they were far too extreme, of course with the benefit of hindsight.

With hindsight many people are quick to say how different things should have been from the beginning, I am exercising the same benefit of speaking in hindsight, though weeks ago I was asking where was the overwhelmed hospitals, because we were bracing for something that never came. Thankfully.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
Posts: 1045
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:58 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Everyone including yourself said that the social distancing was to not overwhelm hospital capacity. I know its hard to admit that it did not occur, and instead of being happy we need to dig in and say they were necessary.

It seems they weren't


Stunning statement - what support do you have for this sweeping conclusion? :hypnotized:


Very nice, you deleted the rest of the sentence where I said, "AT LEAST NOT THAT EXTREME AT THE COST OF MILLIONS OF JOBS".

Why didn't you quote me full?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Tugger
Posts: 10155
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:59 pm

Can't wait for the cries of "Fake news", of people suddenly claiming it was all made up by "MSM" (ooohh the new bogeyman some have created to isolate themselves from having to actually think and live in a free press society)....

Oh wait, can they call it a witch hunt?.... no I don't think so... but someone will probably claim it was devised and magnified by "others" to be "made worse" and attack damage whoever they favor.

I am sadly sure something like that will begin.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 11623
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:00 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Everyone including yourself said that the social distancing was to not overwhelm hospital capacity. I know its hard to admit that it did not occur, and instead of being happy we need to dig in and say they were necessary.

It seems they weren't


Stunning statement - what support do you have for this sweeping conclusion? :hypnotized:


Very nice, you deleted the rest of the sentence where I said, "AT LEAST NOT THAT EXTREME AT THE COST OF MILLIONS OF JOBS".

Why didn't you quote me full?


Because that was the part you were getting at all along - it just took multiple posts to for you to cop to it. We weren’t born yesterday.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:01 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

All models for weeks all, have taken into account social distancing. The models that did not take into account said there would be up to 2 million Americans dying from COVID19. I am not going to try to search past post in these forums or past projections on google, but all mainstream modeling took into account social distancing.

Now, to be fair, perhaps, just perhaps social distancing was taken more seriously than what was expected here in the US. Even there, the Chinese, Italians, Spanish instituted far harsher restrictions than the normal person in NYC experienced.

Don't know why you need to keep digging, the projections all were wrong, they are admitting this, that's why they keep revising it downwards.


Exactly, is almost as people are disappointed that it's getting better / it is not as bad lol.
All that "obvious" how US is the worst makes no sense right now so some have an issue.


You are putting words in everyone’s mouth from your imagination. Many here have stated on various pages of this thread that the improved situation is good news. Find an example that said the opposite and show us..??


Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Absolutely all projections have been with social distancing. When Gov Cuomo said, we need 50,000 ventilators soon! was with social distancing in


You keep saying this, yet have not told us where you are getting your information. There were a lot of models - major institutions and medical universities were all competing to get models out. As I asked last time this came up:

Without a detailed breakdown of the inputs into a model, you can't simply say 'they took distancing into account' - sure, maybe that was part of the model, but to what extent? What type of distancing was modeled - 2 meters, 10 meters, with mask or without? Still going to the supermarket or 100% of population doing home delivery and sanitization of deliveries? What percent implementation and success rate? What delineation between age groups and rural/urban demographics?

We cannot simply take hasty generalizations at face value without more nuance and detail. What models are you talking about? Do you know why revisions were made?


There's a model that is used by the WH which should be considered the main one at this point since that what the gov uses to predict certain patterns. It is called the IHME model.
Everybody knows this so to me, this teeth pulling questioning while having all the available info out there for a while now seems like somebodies deliberate attempt to discredit current state of affairs.
Just my opinion of course :)
http://www.healthdata.org/
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:06 pm

CDC has done some number-crunching and have revised the R0 for COVID-19 far higher than the last estimation. This further supports the need for aggressive antibody serology testing once available and wide deployment of vaccine for same.

At 95% confidence interval, the R0 is between 3.8 and 8.9, median of 5.7. This underscores why distancing has been essential in limiting spread.

Image

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 51232?s=21
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
PixelPilot
Posts: 563
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:19 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:12 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
CDC has done some number-crunching and have revised the R0 for COVID-19 far higher than the last estimation. This further supports the need for aggressive antibody serology testing once available and wide deployment of vaccine for same.

At 95% confidence interval, the R0 is between 3.8 and 8.9, median of 5.7. This underscores why distancing has been essential in limiting spread.

Image

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1 ... 51232?s=21


So let me ask you this:
I don't think anybody is questioning social distancing in the long run which looks like very necessary but how can you support global population without an economy running?

This is honest question. You all say we need to stay home. Ok, got it. How do we eat 2 months from now? How those living paycheck to paycheck don't end up sick and on the street?
Rural areas, much better state. Big cities, when everything relies on day to day functioning of millions of people. How is it even possible to prevent a full on collapse without sending people to work?.

Please, tell me.

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