The first (reliable) results of the first immune testing are now live published. Now, means now, news meeting is still live ongoing in TV., Test results are form district "Heinsberg" in Germany, in this case from the city "Gangelt" , where there was the famous big carnival party with more than 200 cases, the first hot spot area in Germany. Trial is performed by University hospital of Bonn.
Some numbers of the first results, they are still working on further results:
>1000 have participated from 400 households. Numbers are statistically adequate for reliable results.
Infection rate is around 15% in Heinsberg district/Gangelt, so 15% is now immune.
Rate, prior identified in Gangelt by virus test: 5% Gangelt is one of the areas globally with highest number of performed tests.
For herd immunity, a 60% rate will be needed.Death rate is 0.37%
So now we have the first "reliable" death rate.
Source is in German:https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/panorama/id_87665772/coronavirus-news-heinsberg-studie-virologe-stellt-erste-ergebnisse-vor.html
This is very surprising. The infection rate is high at 15%. How did they end up with this very high rate of infection in the first place?
Secondly do we have the number of serious cases? This is so different from the situation in Spain or Italy that either the drop-off in Spain or Italy is due to herd immunity or that we are having a very different strain.
Some additional information. Gangelt is a city in district Heinsberg, which was hit first, it has a population of 12.450. One couple with Covid-19 has played superspreader on a carnival party with 300 to 400 people and more than 200 of them got it on this one evening or days later, when several members of a household were on this party and one or more of them got it e.g. (I always have to remind the spring break parties in Florida two or three weeks or so ago, with hundreds of thousands at the not closed beaches for one week, later all going home, and as the universities have closed...further travelling home to their families to every single state, city and village in the eastern half of US. And as they were young, pretty sure 80% or so without symptoms).
Whole district Heinsberg numbers are published, but I have seen no numbers for Gangelt alone: Most other district in Germany are publishing better.
District Heinsberg: population of 254.000
COVID-19 status on 08-Apr-2020, 3 pm:
First confirmed case on 25-Feb-2020
1527 confirmed cases
- 969 healthy again
- 48 have died
- 510 stated as active cases
How did they end up with this very high rate of infection in the first place? Secondly do we have the number of serious cases?
Numbers, see above, regarding the trial, it is still ongong, seriousness e.g. is part of the analysis, but they are still working on these numbers.
This is so different from the situation in Spain or Italy that either the drop-off in Spain or Italy is due to herd immunity or that we are having a very different strain.
Is it really so different? I believe, it is just out of control in parts of Italy and Spain and the health care system has regional collapsed. In Italy it is even more worse, the local government, on duty of the right populist "Lega Nord" has more than only failed. What they have done, can only be called misconduct.
Source is in German, so use a translator: Yes, if they work hard, it is possible to take care, that the highest number possible get it and will die. But to kill all these vulnerable by misconduct, the most thinkable stupids have to really work as hard as possible.https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Warum-das-Virus-die-Lombardei-so-befaellt-article21694914.html
The "superspreader" in Europe have been Ischgl and the rural villages around in Austria and the northern Italy ski resorts and northern Italy regions, especially Lombardei. This is all the same strain, which has been spread around from there. So there is no miracle strain, which has decided to spare only Germany and another, which has believed, the Germans are so nice guys....
They have performed many more tests in Germany and these early, the health care system is far away from even to be harmed, till now, only one single hospital was over-stressed (hospital in Nuertingen) and Germany has a silly high transport capacity to transport ICU patients with ventilation need by specialized helicopters and specialized rescue cars , to transport the critical cases to the high number of specialized for critical care ICU patients (the university hospitals). And all this is done and regulated according DIN norms, S-guidelines and pandemic plans.
And why the numbers are now going down in Italy, Germany, Spain and so many other countries, because social distancing, curfews and other measurements are doing the job. For the herd immunity, it is still far too early. As we can see in Heinsberg (even Gangelt), one of the two or three districts in Germany, most worse hit: with 15%, they are still far below of herd immunity levels of 60%.
I know, that in Ischgl, there is a immunity test started by Austria government, in Germany several has now started, the biggest will check 100.000 in German, there is one in Bavaria, recently started with 10.000 immunity tests e.g.
This was the first (reliable) one globally, to get fast the first reliable results/numbers, when the other tests will produce numbers in Europe and globally, we will know more.
Last edited by T4thH
on Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.