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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:40 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
There are no new cases of COVID19 in China, only imports by foreign nationals.


If you believe what China says, I have a bridge you might be interested in. :wink2:
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:05 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
LOT767301ER wrote:

About as pointless as the IMHE model. Where are the effects of 60 million unemployed and mass social unrest if that even remotely becomes true.


At the end of the day, many questions need to be answered. The latest projection says 60,000 will die from coronavirus, and doubtless it will even get to that amount, they will revise it down again. 60,000 is the same exact amount of deaths from the "normal" flu season 2017 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-av ... 7-2018.htm

Panic is now the norm of life, its going to take a lot of time to convince people that this won't kill you, and this economy won't recover fast enough.

This is the biggest over reaction to a crisis ever in history at the expense of destroying millions of livelihoods. But you can't say it, without being accused of being something horrible.


No, you can't say it because it's unscientific. Fact - not employing widespread distancing protocols would have dramatically inflated the number of cases, which would do the same with total deaths. Distancing efforts in major populated areas are playing out more successfully than projections assumed they would be, largely thanks to industries taking action before many state governments or DC did. That's the reason you can feel justified in claiming 'panic' and 'overreaction' - because the public health folks are winning the battle. ANYTIME their projections are wrong, the public is winning. You can't argue with math - because numbers don't care about our feelings.

Image
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
olle
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:11 pm

It seems like lockdown will continue for older and other weak groups for another 12 month When we can expect a vaccine.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula- ... n-vaccine/
 
art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:14 pm

[
AirWorthy99 wrote:
This is the biggest over reaction to a crisis ever in history at the expense of destroying millions of livelihoods. But you can't say it, without being accused of being something horrible.


Governments can underreact (easily done). They can react appropriately (almost impossible here in my view). They can overreact (easily done).

In the unprecented situation of a highly contagious, potentially fatal virus infection spreading through the world's population there is the possibility of tens or hundreds of millions of deaths resulting unless measures are taken to stem a rapid spread.

I think history will show that many governments underreacted then overreacted to the COVID-19 outbreak, causing more economic damage than there needed to be to counter the threat of mass worldwide death.

What would you prefer - more people losing their livelihood and less people dying or less people losing their livelihood and more people dying? Those are the choices facing us now, aren't they?
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:19 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
LOT767301ER wrote:

About as pointless as the IMHE model. Where are the effects of 60 million unemployed and mass social unrest if that even remotely becomes true.


At the end of the day, many questions need to be answered. The latest projection says 60,000 will die from coronavirus, and doubtless it will even get to that amount, they will revise it down again. 60,000 is the same exact amount of deaths from the "normal" flu season 2017 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-av ... 7-2018.htm

Panic is now the norm of life, its going to take a lot of time to convince people that this won't kill you, and this economy won't recover fast enough.

This is the biggest over reaction to a crisis ever in history at the expense of destroying millions of livelihoods. But you can't say it, without being accused of being something horrible.


No, you can't say it because it's unscientific. Fact - not employing widespread distancing protocols would have dramatically inflated the number of cases, which would do the same with total deaths. Distancing efforts in major populated areas are playing out more successfully than projections assumed they would be, largely thanks to industries taking action before many state governments or DC did. That's the reason you can feel justified in claiming 'panic' and 'overreaction' - because the public health folks are winning the battle. ANYTIME their projections are wrong, the public is winning. You can't argue with math - because numbers don't care about our feelings.

Image


Not disputing the results of the mitigation measures. You had the experts say that as much as 200,000 people would die with the social distancing they have had in place for almost a month now. The math says that the difference from 200,000 people to 60,000 is 140,000 people. That's a huge difference. That's a huge blow to the extreme confidence we have vested on the experts.

They stated back then that if the mitigation efforts weren't in place we would see as much as 2 million people dying. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... -dead.html

I know you have a fixation with the 'data', which is entirely flawed, in a few months when we find out that the number of people who had COVID19 is much much higher than the current numbers, you will find that the death rates and hospitalization rates are extremely higher than what they are.

I have been in this forum saying the same thing for weeks, and I have been getting the same response as you have, yet despite me knowing much about nothing of science and health, I have seen how this has become a serious over reaction.

One thing most of you people don't understand is that for the vast majority of the people in the world and in the US, "Social distancing" is a luxury they can't have. And the amount of people unemployed shows that. The fact you can't dispute that 60,000 people is the amount of people that died from the normal flu in 2017, tells you why we have over reacted.

The damage has been done, and now people won't feel safe to go out unless a vaccine is released, and that won't be for a year or 2. This over reaction, this over confidence in the experts that based their data on flawed projections is going to cost us a global depression.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:21 pm

rfields5421 wrote:
And they feel a need to brag and show their ignorance. Heck, compared to people bragging about the United States, you should hear the things I hear from people who live in Texas about the other 49 states.


[OT]Because it's Texas...which can as well be an independent country like People's Republic of California. (NOTE: I lived in Texas for years...so I know)[/OT]

PS All I'll say about US is that it's not exactly the best place, but it's nowhere near the worse either. Healthcare and inequalities (income, race, etc.) are definitely the two largest problems.

PixelPilot wrote:


No surprise either...we all know China want to write the narrative that the Wuhan Virus is NOT from Wuhan.

art wrote:
I have a question for those who believe that the novel coronavirus was developed in a laboratory in China but 'escaped' into the population. Why would a state develop a virus as a biological weapon which, if it was used ianywhere, would end up infecting the world including one's own state?


Being a "Create in Wuhan P4 Lab" believer myself, I would argue that it's part of some disease research (which is totally normal) that went totally wrong. I don't believe the BS of "China create this (intentionally) as a biological weapon to cull its population", but do certainly believe that there's some sort of large cover-up of an unintentional consequences.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
At the end of the day, many questions need to be answered. The latest projection says 60,000 will die from coronavirus, and doubtless it will even get to that amount, they will revise it down again. 60,000 is the same exact amount of deaths from the "normal" flu season 2017 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-av ... 7-2018.htm

Panic is now the norm of life, its going to take a lot of time to convince people that this won't kill you, and this economy won't recover fast enough.

This is the biggest over reaction to a crisis ever in history at the expense of destroying millions of livelihoods. But you can't say it, without being accused of being something horrible.


And in the same exact link, it's estimate that there are ~45M cases of influenza each year. The total nCoV confirmed cases right now is something like 560k (in US only) with 22k deaths, with the virus not even finished running its course. Oh, and all these in basically about 2 months.

In another word, you're totally comparing apples and oranges. 0.1% mortality (Influenza) and 3-4% mortality (Wuhan Virus) is a HUGE difference.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:22 pm

art wrote:
[
AirWorthy99 wrote:
This is the biggest over reaction to a crisis ever in history at the expense of destroying millions of livelihoods. But you can't say it, without being accused of being something horrible.


Governments can underreact (easily done). They can react appropriately (almost impossible here in my view). They can overreact (easily done).

In the unprecented situation of a highly contagious, potentially fatal virus infection spreading through the world's population there is the possibility of tens or hundreds of millions of deaths resulting unless measures are taken to stem a rapid spread.

I think history will show that many governments underreacted then overreacted to the COVID-19 outbreak, causing more economic damage than there needed to be to counter the threat of mass worldwide death.

What would you prefer - more people losing their livelihood and less people dying or less people losing their livelihood and more people dying? Those are the choices facing us now, aren't they?


Good points, the under reaction from governments was what led to this over reaction.

And as to your question. There is no absolute data that shows how deadly and how bad this is. We have 'anecdotal' data coming from China, Italy and Spain, but all of the data, the infected, the death rates, the hospitalization is all flawed. We are acting out of panic, perhaps its good do to considering the loss of life, but never they weighted the economic and social impact this over reaction is leading the world to.

The fact that the world is going into a depression, leads me to believe that on the long run, the deaths from COVID19 will be eclipsed by the deaths from an economic meltdown we are witnessing right now.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:26 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

At the end of the day, many questions need to be answered. The latest projection says 60,000 will die from coronavirus, and doubtless it will even get to that amount, they will revise it down again. 60,000 is the same exact amount of deaths from the "normal" flu season 2017 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-av ... 7-2018.htm

Panic is now the norm of life, its going to take a lot of time to convince people that this won't kill you, and this economy won't recover fast enough.

This is the biggest over reaction to a crisis ever in history at the expense of destroying millions of livelihoods. But you can't say it, without being accused of being something horrible.


No, you can't say it because it's unscientific. Fact - not employing widespread distancing protocols would have dramatically inflated the number of cases, which would do the same with total deaths. Distancing efforts in major populated areas are playing out more successfully than projections assumed they would be, largely thanks to industries taking action before many state governments or DC did. That's the reason you can feel justified in claiming 'panic' and 'overreaction' - because the public health folks are winning the battle. ANYTIME their projections are wrong, the public is winning. You can't argue with math - because numbers don't care about our feelings.

Image


Not disputing the results of the mitigation measures. You had the experts say that as much as 200,000 people would die with the social distancing they have had in place for almost a month now. The math says that the difference from 200,000 people to 60,000 is 140,000 people. That's a huge difference. That's a huge blow to the extreme confidence we have vested on the experts.

They stated back then that if the mitigation efforts weren't in place we would see as much as 2 million people dying. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... -dead.html

I know you have a fixation with the 'data', which is entirely flawed, in a few months when we find out that the number of people who had COVID19 is much much higher than the current numbers, you will find that the death rates and hospitalization rates are extremely higher than what they are.

I have been in this forum saying the same thing for weeks, and I have been getting the same response as you have, yet despite me knowing much about nothing of science and health, I have seen how this has become a serious over reaction.

One thing most of you people don't understand is that for the vast majority of the people in the world and in the US, "Social distancing" is a luxury they can't have. And the amount of people unemployed shows that. The fact you can't dispute that 60,000 people is the amount of people that died from the normal flu in 2017, tells you why we have over reacted.

The damage has been done, and now people won't feel safe to go out unless a vaccine is released, and that won't be for a year or 2. This over reaction, this over confidence in the experts that based their data on flawed projections is going to cost us a global depression.



Overreaction is the only way to go here. When you have limited resources to treat the sick, too many people being sick will cause more loss of life, and more intense illnesses than having available supply.

Opening up the economy will just overwhelm so much quicker. Right now the way to go, is to keep the kids out of schools through June, and maintain social distancing.

Some people will have to work, and we can't prevent that some people will remain sick, but i will be happy with a controllable sickness rate , vs overwhelming the system with people that need ICU beds for 8-20 days.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:27 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:

In another word, you're totally comparing apples and oranges. 0.1% mortality (Influenza) and 3-4% mortality (Wuhan Virus) is a HUGE difference.


This mortality rate is not proven. Once this is done and real analysis is made, its very likely we will be higher than influenza, but way way much lower than what you have just said. The fact that many many people are out there without symptoms and never went to get the test, will bring that number down.

If COVID19 is so transmissible as it has been said and known, I highly doubt the current numbers of positive COVID19 is the real one.

If not then COVID19 is not as transmissible as it has been said. So something here is wrong and in the next months we will see the exact mortality rates of this virus, but assuming many people had it and never showed symptoms tells me this rate is much lower.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:31 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

No, you can't say it because it's unscientific. Fact - not employing widespread distancing protocols would have dramatically inflated the number of cases, which would do the same with total deaths. Distancing efforts in major populated areas are playing out more successfully than projections assumed they would be, largely thanks to industries taking action before many state governments or DC did. That's the reason you can feel justified in claiming 'panic' and 'overreaction' - because the public health folks are winning the battle. ANYTIME their projections are wrong, the public is winning. You can't argue with math - because numbers don't care about our feelings.

Image


Not disputing the results of the mitigation measures. You had the experts say that as much as 200,000 people would die with the social distancing they have had in place for almost a month now. The math says that the difference from 200,000 people to 60,000 is 140,000 people. That's a huge difference. That's a huge blow to the extreme confidence we have vested on the experts.

They stated back then that if the mitigation efforts weren't in place we would see as much as 2 million people dying. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... -dead.html

I know you have a fixation with the 'data', which is entirely flawed, in a few months when we find out that the number of people who had COVID19 is much much higher than the current numbers, you will find that the death rates and hospitalization rates are extremely higher than what they are.

I have been in this forum saying the same thing for weeks, and I have been getting the same response as you have, yet despite me knowing much about nothing of science and health, I have seen how this has become a serious over reaction.

One thing most of you people don't understand is that for the vast majority of the people in the world and in the US, "Social distancing" is a luxury they can't have. And the amount of people unemployed shows that. The fact you can't dispute that 60,000 people is the amount of people that died from the normal flu in 2017, tells you why we have over reacted.

The damage has been done, and now people won't feel safe to go out unless a vaccine is released, and that won't be for a year or 2. This over reaction, this over confidence in the experts that based their data on flawed projections is going to cost us a global depression.



Overreaction is the only way to go here. When you have limited resources to treat the sick, too many people being sick will cause more loss of life, and more intense illnesses than having available supply.

Opening up the economy will just overwhelm so much quicker. Right now the way to go, is to keep the kids out of schools through June, and maintain social distancing.

Some people will have to work, and we can't prevent that some people will remain sick, but i will be happy with a controllable sickness rate , vs overwhelming the system with people that need ICU beds for 8-20 days.


I think over-reaction in terms of preparing our health facilities and having sufficient equipment is ok. So far the health facilities in the US haven't been overwhelmed as they thought. In the peak in NY out of the normal 53,000 beds, only 18,000 were used by COVID19.

So thankfully our health care system, despite being rated as bellow in quality to others in the 1st world, it has done a better job than expected with COVID19.

The over reaction of having 100% of the population hunkered down, that's what I think shouldn't have happened. We could have allowed for measures that would mitigate this. But its understandable that we have over reacted because no one was ready and prepared for this.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:37 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Not disputing the results of the mitigation measures. You had the experts say that as much as 200,000 people would die with the social distancing they have had in place for almost a month now. The math says that the difference from 200,000 people to 60,000 is 140,000 people. That's a huge difference. That's a huge blow to the extreme confidence we have vested on the experts


You would be correct if the experts claimed they had pinpoint accuracy or crystal ball ability - except none of them did. No reputable scientist would ever claim they have all the answers.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
know you have a fixation with the 'data', which is entirely flawed, in a few months when we find out that the number of people who had COVID19 is much much higher than the current numbers, you will find that the death rates and hospitalization rates are extremely higher than what they are.


Of course, I make a living at data analysis. And you probably meant to say '...rates will be much lower than what they are'

AirWorthy99 wrote:
"Social distancing" is a luxury they can't have. And the amount of people unemployed shows that. The fact you can't dispute that 60,000 people is the amount of people that died from the normal flu in 2017, tells you why we have over reacted.


This is a totally unscientific analysis. Flu is carefully studied, tracked, and monitored with a new vaccine available every year. This was a novel virus and all epidemiological protocols for a perceived 1-2% death rate called for this kind of action with no vaccine and no established data on propagation or immunity. We were lucky this time - that's what the math says.

And you are conflating failed government economic preparation with the viral spread mitigation measures themselves. Properly coordinated with other G20 nations, and with action plans in place, major economic damage could have been avoided. But that requires management skills and leadership, and you know where that conversation goes.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:40 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Not disputing the results of the mitigation measures. You had the experts say that as much as 200,000 people would die with the social distancing they have had in place for almost a month now. The math says that the difference from 200,000 people to 60,000 is 140,000 people. That's a huge difference. That's a huge blow to the extreme confidence we have vested on the experts.

They stated back then that if the mitigation efforts weren't in place we would see as much as 2 million people dying. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... -dead.html

I know you have a fixation with the 'data', which is entirely flawed, in a few months when we find out that the number of people who had COVID19 is much much higher than the current numbers, you will find that the death rates and hospitalization rates are extremely higher than what they are.

I have been in this forum saying the same thing for weeks, and I have been getting the same response as you have, yet despite me knowing much about nothing of science and health, I have seen how this has become a serious over reaction.

One thing most of you people don't understand is that for the vast majority of the people in the world and in the US, "Social distancing" is a luxury they can't have. And the amount of people unemployed shows that. The fact you can't dispute that 60,000 people is the amount of people that died from the normal flu in 2017, tells you why we have over reacted.

The damage has been done, and now people won't feel safe to go out unless a vaccine is released, and that won't be for a year or 2. This over reaction, this over confidence in the experts that based their data on flawed projections is going to cost us a global depression.



Overreaction is the only way to go here. When you have limited resources to treat the sick, too many people being sick will cause more loss of life, and more intense illnesses than having available supply.

Opening up the economy will just overwhelm so much quicker. Right now the way to go, is to keep the kids out of schools through June, and maintain social distancing.

Some people will have to work, and we can't prevent that some people will remain sick, but i will be happy with a controllable sickness rate , vs overwhelming the system with people that need ICU beds for 8-20 days.


I think over-reaction in terms of preparing our health facilities and having sufficient equipment is ok. So far the health facilities in the US haven't been overwhelmed as they thought. In the peak in NY out of the normal 53,000 beds, only 18,000 were used by COVID19.

So thankfully our health care system, despite being rated as bellow in quality to others in the 1st world, it has done a better job than expected with COVID19.

The over reaction of having 100% of the population hunkered down, that's what I think shouldn't have happened. We could have allowed for measures that would mitigate this. But its understandable that we have over reacted because no one was ready and prepared for this.


100% are not hunkered down.

Many are still working jobs, and many kids are still going to school cafeterias to get their meals. Those that can hunker down, have, and it is making all the difference right now.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:49 pm

Aaron747 wrote:


You would be correct if the experts claimed they had pinpoint accuracy or crystal ball ability - except none of them did. No reputable scientist would ever claim they have all the answers.


True but we have taken them at their word since the beginning. Its not their fault the data was flawed and is still flawed, yet we all decided to believe them.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:52 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Overreaction is the only way to go here. When you have limited resources to treat the sick, too many people being sick will cause more loss of life, and more intense illnesses than having available supply.

Opening up the economy will just overwhelm so much quicker. Right now the way to go, is to keep the kids out of schools through June, and maintain social distancing.

Some people will have to work, and we can't prevent that some people will remain sick, but i will be happy with a controllable sickness rate , vs overwhelming the system with people that need ICU beds for 8-20 days.


I think over-reaction in terms of preparing our health facilities and having sufficient equipment is ok. So far the health facilities in the US haven't been overwhelmed as they thought. In the peak in NY out of the normal 53,000 beds, only 18,000 were used by COVID19.

So thankfully our health care system, despite being rated as bellow in quality to others in the 1st world, it has done a better job than expected with COVID19.

The over reaction of having 100% of the population hunkered down, that's what I think shouldn't have happened. We could have allowed for measures that would mitigate this. But its understandable that we have over reacted because no one was ready and prepared for this.


100% are not hunkered down.

Many are still working jobs, and many kids are still going to school cafeterias to get their meals. Those that can hunker down, have, and it is making all the difference right now.


Well, not 100% but you get the picture.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:56 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:


You would be correct if the experts claimed they had pinpoint accuracy or crystal ball ability - except none of them did. No reputable scientist would ever claim they have all the answers.


True but we have taken them at their word since the beginning. Its not their fault the data was flawed and is still flawed, yet we all decided to believe them.


There is absolutely nothing wrong with that - it was more scientific to take their counsel than not. And in a novel outbreak situation, we'd be wise to err on the side of science. We only succeeded in the Apollo program because we overengineered and tested everything, to the point of three dead astronauts on the ground and thousands of engineers' divorces and immeasurable missed family time. Nobody mentions the latter now.

With a chemical alarm, you're going to build one that is oversensitive because you would rather the alarm go off and give you a false alarm than to err on the other side. - Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:06 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:


You would be correct if the experts claimed they had pinpoint accuracy or crystal ball ability - except none of them did. No reputable scientist would ever claim they have all the answers.


True but we have taken them at their word since the beginning. Its not their fault the data was flawed and is still flawed, yet we all decided to believe them.


There is absolutely nothing wrong with that - it was more scientific to take their counsel than not. And in a novel outbreak situation, we'd be wise to err on the side of science. We only succeeded in the Apollo program because we overengineered and tested everything, to the point of three dead astronauts on the ground and thousands of engineers' divorces and immeasurable missed family time. Nobody mentions the latter now.

With a chemical alarm, you're going to build one that is oversensitive because you would rather the alarm go off and give you a false alarm than to err on the other side. - Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf


To err on the side of science when based on flawed and wrong data we are taking the economy to a depression, there should be a balanced approach.

How about all experts and scientist warn us that a meteor will strike the world and kill much of it, should the world believe them and side with them and err on the side of science?

I live in Florida, I can count many many times meteorologists have said a hurricane will come, only not to show up, I used this example before, its ok to err on the side of science there, but to a certain extent, I am not going to fill my van with my family and drive to Illinois out of fear, I should be prepared here . We should be prepared for pandemics, but not to shut down life the way we have just based on anecdotal information.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:10 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Panic is now the norm of life,

Plain and simple I am not seeing this at all. People are just working their way through something they did not expect nor were prepared for.

I have not seen fights of any scale or anything like the "panic" you claim anywhere. I see coping, some sadness, some surprise going up to and including shock, I see depression, and I see strength and compassion and resilience.

Doom & gloom all you want, I can't stop you from whatever opinion you want to hold, but It just isn't in evidence.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:11 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

True but we have taken them at their word since the beginning. Its not their fault the data was flawed and is still flawed, yet we all decided to believe them.


There is absolutely nothing wrong with that - it was more scientific to take their counsel than not. And in a novel outbreak situation, we'd be wise to err on the side of science. We only succeeded in the Apollo program because we overengineered and tested everything, to the point of three dead astronauts on the ground and thousands of engineers' divorces and immeasurable missed family time. Nobody mentions the latter now.

With a chemical alarm, you're going to build one that is oversensitive because you would rather the alarm go off and give you a false alarm than to err on the other side. - Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf


To err on the side of science when based on flawed and wrong data we are taking the economy to a depression, there should be a balanced approach.

How about all experts and scientist warn us that a meteor will strike the world and kill much of it, should the world believe them and side with them and err on the side of science?

I live in Florida, I can count many many times meteorologists have said a hurricane will come, only not to show up, I used this example before, its ok to err on the side of science there, but to a certain extent, I am not going to fill my van with my family and drive to Illinois out of fear, I should be prepared here . We should be prepared for pandemics, but not to shut down life the way we have just based on anecdotal information.


You are conflating too many things without nuance to respond to. A quick primer: meteorites ≠ viral pandemics (and 'asteroids' threaten the Earth, they are not 'meteorites' until they survive atmospheric entry - 'meteors' are the ionization trails you see from material burning up in the atmosphere). Hurricane forecast models ≠ viral pandemics. Flawed data ≠ improper or unwise prevention protocols. Scientific illiteracy ≠ objective accuracy about 'overreaction'
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PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:16 pm

art wrote:
I have a question for those who believe that the novel coronavirus was developed in a laboratory in China but 'escaped' into the population. Why would a state develop a virus as a biological weapon which, if it was used ianywhere, would end up infecting the world including one's own state?


Well you kinda answered your own question.
The fact that they have people dead in their own country makes you question this as a potential weapon which is exactly what hey need, Compassion from the woke west. Golden alibi in eyes of many.
But we're talking about communism here. Few hundred thousand easily replaceable people is well worth it if in return you managed to bring your largest adversary / enemy to a crawl and weakened it for a very long time.
Remember, China has a 50 / 100 year plan. "Now" is only relevant in relation to the end game. In your eyes they are crippling themselves, in their eyes they made a successful strategic move. West is a 4 to 8 at most where now is now because Tomorrow somebody will erase some if not most things that current government implemented. Both state and nationwide level in US for example.

Obviously that's just a perspective and FYI I do not believe in conspiracy theories. I do believe in conspiracies though and history has quite a few of them on record.

Eating bats is batsh** crazy too if you ask me and that's also a very plausible explanation.
It;s the reaction to it what make you question CCP's intentions that kinda prove my point. Wet markets are open again. They would ban them if they actually cared about people. It is a simple truth / fact.
Last edited by PixelPilot on Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:27 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:17 pm

Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Panic is now the norm of life,

Plain and simple I am not seeing this at all. People are just working their way through something they did not expect nor were prepared for.

I have not seen fights of any scale or anything like the "panic" you claim anywhere. I see coping, some sadness, some surprise going up to and including shock, I see depression, and I see strength and compassion and resilience.

Doom & gloom all you want, I can't stop you from whatever opinion you want to hold, but It just isn't in evidence.

Tugg


You have not seen fights for toilet paper, safety items and baby food among other things? And that was when most still had jobs so give it some more time when the juicy unemployment bonus expires and people are facing serious hard times.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:27 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Panic is now the norm of life,

Plain and simple I am not seeing this at all. People are just working their way through something they did not expect nor were prepared for.

I have not seen fights of any scale or anything like the "panic" you claim anywhere. I see coping, some sadness, some surprise going up to and including shock, I see depression, and I see strength and compassion and resilience.

Doom & gloom all you want, I can't stop you from whatever opinion you want to hold, but It just isn't in evidence.

Tugg


You have not seen fights for toilet paper, safety items and baby food among other things? And that was when most still had jobs so give it some more time when the juicy unemployment bonus expires and people are facing serious hard times.

No, I haven't seen anything like that of any scale. One or two here or there, hell if you think that proclaims "panic" on a large scale how do you perceive black Fridays sales fights?

Stupid people do stupid things at times. But the vast majority of people don't so it is not an issue in the grand scale of things. People post things on social media and one event or even a half dozen suddenly has weak-kneed people thinking it is happening everywhere all the time when it is not.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:29 pm

Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Plain and simple I am not seeing this at all. People are just working their way through something they did not expect nor were prepared for.

I have not seen fights of any scale or anything like the "panic" you claim anywhere. I see coping, some sadness, some surprise going up to and including shock, I see depression, and I see strength and compassion and resilience.

Doom & gloom all you want, I can't stop you from whatever opinion you want to hold, but It just isn't in evidence.

Tugg


You have not seen fights for toilet paper, safety items and baby food among other things? And that was when most still had jobs so give it some more time when the juicy unemployment bonus expires and people are facing serious hard times.

No, I haven't seen anything like that of any scale. One or two here or there, hell if you think that proclaims "panic" on a large scale how do you perceive black Fridays sales fights?

Stupid people do stupid things at times. But the vast majority of people don't so it is not an issue in the grand scale of things.

Tugg


Agreed - there have been incidents, but nothing on a grand scale. If anything, I have been a little surprised at how unproductive some people have been with all the time they suddenly have. But it sure makes for some good laughs - here's Ozzy Man's survey of how people are faring in isolation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHwLebZ82lg
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:35 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

I think over-reaction in terms of preparing our health facilities and having sufficient equipment is ok. So far the health facilities in the US haven't been overwhelmed as they thought. In the peak in NY out of the normal 53,000 beds, only 18,000 were used by COVID19.

So thankfully our health care system, despite being rated as bellow in quality to others in the 1st world, it has done a better job than expected with COVID19.

The over reaction of having 100% of the population hunkered down, that's what I think shouldn't have happened. We could have allowed for measures that would mitigate this. But its understandable that we have over reacted because no one was ready and prepared for this.


100% are not hunkered down.

Many are still working jobs, and many kids are still going to school cafeterias to get their meals. Those that can hunker down, have, and it is making all the difference right now.


Well, not 100% but you get the picture.


I do, but you fail too. You say you don't trust the math on all of this, and yet you don't care about wildly incorrect statements about what is going on.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:37 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

You have not seen fights for toilet paper, safety items and baby food among other things? And that was when most still had jobs so give it some more time when the juicy unemployment bonus expires and people are facing serious hard times.

No, I haven't seen anything like that of any scale. One or two here or there, hell if you think that proclaims "panic" on a large scale how do you perceive black Fridays sales fights?

Stupid people do stupid things at times. But the vast majority of people don't so it is not an issue in the grand scale of things.

Tugg


Agreed - there have been incidents, but nothing on a grand scale. If anything, I have been a little surprised at how unproductive some people have been with all the time they suddenly have. But it sure makes for some good laughs - here's Ozzy Man's survey of how people are faring in isolation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHwLebZ82lg

And something like a quarter of the world population has been "locked down" and been adversely affected by the spread of the virus. And with all those people, how many incidents have their been? (And yes, China is an oppressive regime so little the population there could do.)

Some posterds here want to foment distrust, and pretend "this will last forever (by saying "the people won't stand for this forever!"), and trot out all sorts of statements trying to find unrest and get people to bite.

We will emerge from this in the near future and we will move on. The world is not ending.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:39 pm

Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Plain and simple I am not seeing this at all. People are just working their way through something they did not expect nor were prepared for.

I have not seen fights of any scale or anything like the "panic" you claim anywhere. I see coping, some sadness, some surprise going up to and including shock, I see depression, and I see strength and compassion and resilience.

Doom & gloom all you want, I can't stop you from whatever opinion you want to hold, but It just isn't in evidence.

Tugg


You have not seen fights for toilet paper, safety items and baby food among other things? And that was when most still had jobs so give it some more time when the juicy unemployment bonus expires and people are facing serious hard times.

No, I haven't seen anything like that of any scale. One or two here or there, hell if you think that proclaims "panic" on a large scale how do you perceive black Fridays sales fights?

Stupid people do stupid things at times. But the vast majority of people don't so it is not an issue in the grand scale of things. People post things on social media and one event or even a half dozen suddenly has weak-kneed people thinking it is happening everywhere all the time when it is not.

Tugg


So far you are thinking like one would normally think but times have changed.
This is one of the things I really hope I am wrong but with so many unemployed and tragedies that are about to unravel nothing is how it used to be and it is not comparable to anything the west faced in modern past. People need safe spaces cause somebody called them wrong pronoun or there was a democratically elected president they do not like and you are telling me everybody will sing kumbaya when landlords will start evicting people on large scale and hunger starts knocking on doors?
I mean this is not a impossible / imaginary scenario by any means.
People often criticize governments response to the virus due to lack of "vision" but none seem to look at the collateral damage that this shutdown is creating.

Tugger wrote:
"Stupid people do stupid things at times"

Tugg
- lets hope wishful thinking is not one of those stupid things.

Tugger wrote:
"We will emerge from this in the near future and we will move on. The world is not ending."
Tugg
Sure it is not but it won't be the same anymore.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:43 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Eating bats is batsh** crazy too if you ask me and that's also a very plausible explanation.
It;s the reaction to it what make you question CCP's intentions that kinda prove my point. Wet markets are open again. They would ban them if they actually cared about people. It is a simple truth / fact.


Regarding Wet Markets - again, you found them in "first world" countries like South Korea and Singapore also among many places around the world. The market itself is not a problem, the often unhygienic condition in the Chinese one can be. But even then, why is there no outbreak in SE Asia where hygiene condition in some of those wet markets can be just as bad?

Regarding eating bats - pangolins is a much more plausible explanation if the virus indeed first spread from animal to human (I still believe that it's a Wuhan P4 Lab creation). I never heard many people eating bats in mainland China, but pangolins or civets? That's VERY common.

AirWorthy99 wrote:
The over reaction of having 100% of the population hunkered down, that's what I think shouldn't have happened. We could have allowed for measures that would mitigate this. But its understandable that we have over reacted because no one was ready and prepared for this.


Trust me, the so-call "stay-at-home" order is a joke in US even compare to Europe. Quite frankly I could have go anywhere right now and I won't get pull over by the police or arrested.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:45 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
People need safe spaces cause somebody called them wrong pronoun or there was a democratically elected president they do not like and you are telling me everybody will sing kumbaya when landlords will start evicting people on large scale and hunger starts knocking on doors?
I mean this is not a impossible / imaginary scenario by any means.
People often criticize governments response to the virus due to lack of "vision" but none seem to look at the collateral damage that this shutdown is creating.


These are all preventable scenarios provided government has sufficient awareness, management skill, and leadership. So far out of the WH, we aren't seeing much of the latter two, and intermittent contact on the first charge. Criticism is deserved where earned.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:46 pm

First of the sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt has now died on Coronavirus. Rest in Peace.
Additional four have been now transferred to the hospital.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics/theodore-roosevelt-sailor-coronavirus/index.html
Last edited by T4thH on Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:47 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
Trust me, the so-call "stay-at-home" order is a joke in US even compare to Europe. Quite frankly I could have go anywhere right now and I won't get pull over by the police or arrested.


Same with Taiwan - my old university friend went back to live there and they are checking on people constantly. If you don't respond to check-in calls in the morning, they send patrols to your home.
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PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:49 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
People need safe spaces cause somebody called them wrong pronoun or there was a democratically elected president they do not like and you are telling me everybody will sing kumbaya when landlords will start evicting people on large scale and hunger starts knocking on doors?
I mean this is not a impossible / imaginary scenario by any means.
People often criticize governments response to the virus due to lack of "vision" but none seem to look at the collateral damage that this shutdown is creating.


These are all preventable scenarios provided government has sufficient awareness, management skill, and leadership. So far out of the WH, we aren't seeing much of the latter two, and intermittent contact on the first charge. Criticism is deserved where earned.


So on one hand you trust the government as long as it is not the one that we have now on the other hand you prove that government can fail, because who is to say that Joe the will do a better job besides wishful thinking?

Your logic is flawed because it is not based on fact but belief that somebody else will do a better job which might as well be the opposite.
Last edited by PixelPilot on Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:49 pm

scbriml wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
There are no new cases of COVID19 in China, only imports by foreign nationals.


If you believe what China says, I have a bridge you might be interested in. :wink2:


While every other country is struggling to plateau, cases in China dropped like a rock. Their current official position, no native mainland infections.

If the rumors are true China is quarantining foreigners including who were in China prior to outbreak by nation at their own cost.

What % of population in China tested for antigen or antibody. Probably negligible.

So, there are is only one tinfoil theory, they have medicine for this.

China keep saying we sequenced in 10 days world is not able to develop a vaccine. No you have the sequence before the outbreak, so does the medicine/vaccine.

Just because 96% matches SARS-Cov-1 doesn't proves rest of the 4% is not engineered.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:53 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
People need safe spaces cause somebody called them wrong pronoun or there was a democratically elected president they do not like and you are telling me everybody will sing kumbaya when landlords will start evicting people on large scale and hunger starts knocking on doors?
I mean this is not a impossible / imaginary scenario by any means.
People often criticize governments response to the virus due to lack of "vision" but none seem to look at the collateral damage that this shutdown is creating.


These are all preventable scenarios provided government has sufficient awareness, management skill, and leadership. So far out of the WH, we aren't seeing much of the latter two, and intermittent contact on the first charge. Criticism is deserved where earned.


So on one hand you trust the government as long as it is not the one that we have now on the other hand you prove that government can fail, because who is to say that Joe the will do a better job besides wishful thinking?

Your logic is flawed because it is not based on fact but belief that somebody else will do a better job which might as well be the opposite.


I made no such statement. Your logic is flawed because you used a straw man. I made no mention of 'Joe' or 'another government'. I'm talking about the poor management exhibited by the current one - lots of missed opportunities and an obvious lack of coordination. Anyone who has been in a competently-run organization can see it. The gaggle of people crowding the podium at the pressers is the dead giveaway - sometimes contradicting each other and/or being contradicted by the boss - these things never happen in a professionally-run organization.
Last edited by Aaron747 on Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:53 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Tugger wrote:
"We will emerge from this in the near future and we will move on. The world is not ending."
Tugg
Sure it is not but it won't be the same anymore.

You do realize this is how life is, always. Right?

You're born, go to school, finsh school, get a job, maybe get hitched, have a kid, etc.

LIFE has always been a series of events where things "are not the same anymore". This is the reality that we all live and die with. Always.

The world has thrived after wars, pandemics, economic upheaval, dictators, new nations being created, nations crumbling. Always.

I find it surprising that some do not understand this.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:54 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
scbriml wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
There are no new cases of COVID19 in China, only imports by foreign nationals.


If you believe what China says, I have a bridge you might be interested in. :wink2:


While every other country is struggling to plateau, cases in China dropped like a rock. Their current official position, no native mainland infections...
.


And you know this for a fact?
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:57 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
scbriml wrote:

If you believe what China says, I have a bridge you might be interested in. :wink2:


While every other country is struggling to plateau, cases in China dropped like a rock. Their current official position, no native mainland infections...
.


And you know this for a fact?

Yeah, I was going to say, who actually trusts the numbers out of China?

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:00 pm

Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Tugger wrote:
"We will emerge from this in the near future and we will move on. The world is not ending."
Tugg
Sure it is not but it won't be the same anymore.

You do realize this is how life is, always. Right?

You're born, go to school, finsh school, get a job, maybe get hitched, have a kid, etc.

LIFE has always been a series of events where things "are not the same anymore". This is the reality that we all live and die with. Always.

The world has thrived after wars, pandemics, economic upheaval, dictators, new nations being created, nations crumbling. Always.

I find it surprising that some do not understand this.

Tugg


I'm confused.
First you say everything will be normal and most people just chill and now we go straight to world strives after pandemic, dictators and etc?? I guess middle east would like to know what' you're smoking.
Such a cold statement cause millions will die / live in distress from now on which again proves the point that nobody thought this through OR that was very much thought through and everything that is happening was already accounted for.

We will never know the motive that's for sure.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:04 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
scbriml wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
There are no new cases of COVID19 in China, only imports by foreign nationals.


If you believe what China says, I have a bridge you might be interested in. :wink2:


While every other country is struggling to plateau, cases in China dropped like a rock. Their current official position, no native mainland infections.

If the rumors are true China is quarantining foreigners including who were in China prior to outbreak by nation at their own cost.

What % of population in China tested for antigen or antibody. Probably negligible.

So, there are is only one tinfoil theory, they have medicine for this.

China keep saying we sequenced in 10 days world is not able to develop a vaccine. No you have the sequence before the outbreak, so does the medicine/vaccine.

Just because 96% matches SARS-Cov-1 doesn't proves rest of the 4% is not engineered.


You got the narrative wrong - it is NOT just foreign nationals, but they are basically saying all the new cases are imported (i.e. including Chinese nationals "escaping" the pandemics in a "western" country) as if the virus just stop circulating, especially among locals.

BTW, I don't know how much mainland Chinese themselves trust the official number. Go tell somebody in Shanghai that you are from Hubei, and watch how quick the Shanghaiese either run away far or beat you up :).
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:11 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Sure it is not but it won't be the same anymore.

You do realize this is how life is, always. Right?

You're born, go to school, finsh school, get a job, maybe get hitched, have a kid, etc.

LIFE has always been a series of events where things "are not the same anymore". This is the reality that we all live and die with. Always.

The world has thrived after wars, pandemics, economic upheaval, dictators, new nations being created, nations crumbling. Always.

I find it surprising that some do not understand this.

Tugg


I'm confused.
First you say everything will be normal and most people just chill and now we go straight to world strives after pandemic, dictators and etc?? I guess middle east would like to know what' you're smoking.
Such a cold statement cause millions will die / live in distress from now on which again proves the point that nobody thought this through OR that was very much thought through and everything that is happening was already accounted for.

We will never know the motive that's for sure.

I am surprised that you do not understand that I was only responding to your comment "things won't be the same" and that I used historic examples. And yet with all that the world continues to move forward. We can't control most things, and yet we thrive and grow and push forward and succeed.

If you are merely trying to spin up something out of what I said, it is not successful as I in no way made a "cold statement cause millions will die". We do our best, the public is doing its best and working their way through this situation, and things will adjust and in the coming months we will be OK. As much as we can be.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:11 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

These are all preventable scenarios provided government has sufficient awareness, management skill, and leadership. So far out of the WH, we aren't seeing much of the latter two, and intermittent contact on the first charge. Criticism is deserved where earned.


So on one hand you trust the government as long as it is not the one that we have now on the other hand you prove that government can fail, because who is to say that Joe the will do a better job besides wishful thinking?

Your logic is flawed because it is not based on fact but belief that somebody else will do a better job which might as well be the opposite.


I made no such statement. Your logic is flawed because you used a straw man. I made no mention of 'Joe' or 'another government'. I'm talking about the poor management exhibited by the current one - lots of missed opportunities and an obvious lack of coordination. Anyone who has been in a competently-run organization can see it. The gaggle of people crowding the podium at the pressers is the dead giveaway - sometimes contradicting each other and/or being contradicted by the boss - these things never happen in a professionally-run organization.


You are contradicting yourself Sir.
You used the word "preventable" which means somebody else could have done it right. Again. Maybe not, possibly not or not at all. All as valid as your preventable.
Modern world never faced such deadly / fast spreading virus. The idea that anybody could do better in particular case of the US which has a incredibly large population combined with a looot of messed\up laws and regulations is just another wishful thinking. That is a fact. I mean everybody would love it to be true but that doesn't make it true.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:13 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

So on one hand you trust the government as long as it is not the one that we have now on the other hand you prove that government can fail, because who is to say that Joe the will do a better job besides wishful thinking?

Your logic is flawed because it is not based on fact but belief that somebody else will do a better job which might as well be the opposite.


I made no such statement. Your logic is flawed because you used a straw man. I made no mention of 'Joe' or 'another government'. I'm talking about the poor management exhibited by the current one - lots of missed opportunities and an obvious lack of coordination. Anyone who has been in a competently-run organization can see it. The gaggle of people crowding the podium at the pressers is the dead giveaway - sometimes contradicting each other and/or being contradicted by the boss - these things never happen in a professionally-run organization.


You are contradicting yourself Sir.
You used the word "preventable" which means somebody else could have done it right. Again. Maybe not, possibly not or not at all. All as valid as your preventable.
Modern world never faced such deadly / fast spreading virus. The idea that anybody could do better in particular case of the US which has a incredibly large population combined with a looot of messed\up laws and regulations is just another wishful thinking. That is a fact. I mean everybody would love it to be true but that doesn't make it true.


The size and scope of managing crises in the US is what demands scenario planning and coordinated action plans. Something resembling those would be what the public least expects - maybe your bar is low, mine and many others' is not. As I said, anyone familiar with operations and contingency planning in a functional organization knows we have been watching a shitshow.

In any case, I did not state 'someone else could have done it right'. I stated there were missed opportunities in this very WH - POTUS himself could have done it right, if he had tangible management skills. All the tools were already there - a good manager knows what questions to ask and who to delegate to.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:17 pm

Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Tugger wrote:
You do realize this is how life is, always. Right?

You're born, go to school, finsh school, get a job, maybe get hitched, have a kid, etc.

LIFE has always been a series of events where things "are not the same anymore". This is the reality that we all live and die with. Always.

The world has thrived after wars, pandemics, economic upheaval, dictators, new nations being created, nations crumbling. Always.

I find it surprising that some do not understand this.

Tugg


I'm confused.
First you say everything will be normal and most people just chill and now we go straight to world strives after pandemic, dictators and etc?? I guess middle east would like to know what' you're smoking.
Such a cold statement cause millions will die / live in distress from now on which again proves the point that nobody thought this through OR that was very much thought through and everything that is happening was already accounted for.

We will never know the motive that's for sure.

I am surprised that you do not understand that I was only responding to your comment "things won't be the same" and that I used historic examples. And yet with all that the world continues to move forward. We can't control most things, and yet we thrive and grow and push forward and succeed.

If you are merely trying to spin up something out of what I said, it is not successful as I in no way made a "cold statement cause millions will die". We do our best, the public is doing its best and working their way through this situation, and things will adjust and in the coming months we will be OK. As much as we can be.

Tugg


Cheery picking one sentence that was written with whole context in mind is not the way to do things. In fact that's everything what is wrong with the media today.
We are discussing implication of a major lock down that will bring hell on a lot of peoples lives so if you wanna go philosophical on a tiny part of the whole conversation at least be sure to give notice.
And nobody is spinning anything just stick to the conversation and give notice if you decide to deviate from the topic.
 
StarAC17
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:21 pm

melpax wrote:
Some very real concerns here in Australia about civil liberties being trampled in the name of 'flattening the curve'. Most of us are supportive of the measures at the moment, but the real concern is if they continue at the current level for the next 6 months or so. As you'll see in the video below (this was shown on TV here earlier tonight), the military are now assisting police with things such as roadside checkpoints, and quarantine measures. Here in Melbourne at least, it almost feels like undeclared martial law, you can only leave your home to go to work or study if it can't be done at home, obtain food & 'supplies', to seek medical attention & 'care giving', and for excercise (gyms have been closed for the past 3 weeks). The police have been accused of being heavy-handed in enforcing these rules (AUD$1,600 fine for being in breach), even to the point of a 16 year old learner driver being fined while out on a driving lesson with her mother as the supervising driver as she was on a 'non-essential' outing. The fine was later overturned after media attention, but the state chief health officer came out & deemed driving lessons to be non-essential travel. Have also heard of cyclists being fined for being 'too far' from their homes.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus ... a-12-april

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWK1tun2UJg


I fear this in Canada too, there was a family in Oakville, Ontario (suburb of Toronto) a family who live in the same house were fined $880 on Sunday with no one around.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6810568/coro ... ding-fine/

They live in the same household which permits them to be less than 2m apart and nobody else was around. I think the father got the ticket because he gave the by-law officer attitude. It does seem like the municipalities are licking their lips for money and making this zero tolerance.

There was a right wing radio host who I seldom agree with who hit the nail on the head this morning. You only have social distancing as long as the people agree to it, you are violating civil rights with the consent of people. That ability can be taken away by the people and the politicians will pay at the ballot box in the future.

Like Australia, Canada is talking about 6-18 months of it, probably not as extreme as now but you have to keep the people on board. Some of our government officials seem to be lost at sea on how to handle this politically.
Some of this is understandable because this has never really been done before but out of G7 nations we are handling this pandemic the best, yes it certainly could be better but everything in Canada seems to be holding. Australia is faring better than Canada.

Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Frankly speaking, no place on earth is immune to animal-to-human transmission. Check how many cases of leprocy or rabies occur in US, for example. Or remember the case when people with plague were isolated in NYC? That was another close call which could turn very interesting...
Ebola is another thing some believe was a major, but succesfully contained, threat.
There are too many unknown unknowns in biology. Who knows what black bacterial matter would reveal some day, for example?

Sure, but just because we can't prevent all transmissions doesn't mean we should not work hard to stamp out some very obvious paths for transmission.

Pest control is not perfect today, but it's better than in the days of the Plague, and overall we've decided one reason to have sewers and other sanitary facilities is to limit the spread of disease, and no one is recommending we stop doing this.

Ebola is an interesting contrast to COVID-19, in that it symptoms were more readily apparent and severe and it was much more lethal, which was sad but also acted to limit its transmission. COVID-19 symptoms are slow to appear and we are told on average each carrier infects three people largely because they don't know they are carriers.


Ebola while far more deadly than COVID19 is not spread by droplets but contact with bodily fluids. This is why it likely won't be anything more than a regional disease as Ebola has basically no symptomatic carriers and community transmission can be largely minimized.
Respiratory viruses are the one that typically become pandemics because of the fact they are droplets in the air, even then you need certain factors such as a high asymptomatic rate and long incubation time both exist with Covid19. I was listening to Sam Harris yesterday and his guests do say that this is probably a dry run for something with far higher mortality that can be spread symptomatically or in its incubation period.

The more we intrude on nature and come into contact with animals we normally wouldn't, the more that this will happen. Wet Markets are the fuel to the fire but by no means the fire.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:21 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

I made no such statement. Your logic is flawed because you used a straw man. I made no mention of 'Joe' or 'another government'. I'm talking about the poor management exhibited by the current one - lots of missed opportunities and an obvious lack of coordination. Anyone who has been in a competently-run organization can see it. The gaggle of people crowding the podium at the pressers is the dead giveaway - sometimes contradicting each other and/or being contradicted by the boss - these things never happen in a professionally-run organization.


You are contradicting yourself Sir.
You used the word "preventable" which means somebody else could have done it right. Again. Maybe not, possibly not or not at all. All as valid as your preventable.
Modern world never faced such deadly / fast spreading virus. The idea that anybody could do better in particular case of the US which has a incredibly large population combined with a looot of messed\up laws and regulations is just another wishful thinking. That is a fact. I mean everybody would love it to be true but that doesn't make it true.


The size and scope of managing crises in the US is what demands scenario planning and coordinated action plans. Something resembling those would be what the public least expects - maybe your bar is low, mine and many others' is not. As I said, anyone familiar with operations and contingency planning in a functional organization knows we have been watching a shitshow.

In any case, I did not state 'someone else could have done it right'. I stated there were missed opportunities in this very WH - POTUS himself could have done it right, if he had tangible management skills. All the tools were already there - a good manager knows what questions to ask and who to delegate to.


You are going circles but still wishful thinking.
I mean it SHOULD be the way you say it but nobody actually knows if it ever will.
That's my point. And it's not about a bar being low or high. It just how things are.
 
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Aaron747
Posts: 12474
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:24 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

You are contradicting yourself Sir.
You used the word "preventable" which means somebody else could have done it right. Again. Maybe not, possibly not or not at all. All as valid as your preventable.
Modern world never faced such deadly / fast spreading virus. The idea that anybody could do better in particular case of the US which has a incredibly large population combined with a looot of messed\up laws and regulations is just another wishful thinking. That is a fact. I mean everybody would love it to be true but that doesn't make it true.


The size and scope of managing crises in the US is what demands scenario planning and coordinated action plans. Something resembling those would be what the public least expects - maybe your bar is low, mine and many others' is not. As I said, anyone familiar with operations and contingency planning in a functional organization knows we have been watching a shitshow.

In any case, I did not state 'someone else could have done it right'. I stated there were missed opportunities in this very WH - POTUS himself could have done it right, if he had tangible management skills. All the tools were already there - a good manager knows what questions to ask and who to delegate to.


You are going circles but still wishful thinking.
I mean it SHOULD be the way you say it but nobody actually knows if it ever will.
That's my point. And it's not about a bar being low or high. It just how things are.


Wishful thinking, because of the skill level of the chief executive, is what you mean. Anyway it's silly for you to demand others 'stick to the conversation' when you're conflating issues and throwing strawmen around like they're on fire sale.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:30 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

The size and scope of managing crises in the US is what demands scenario planning and coordinated action plans. Something resembling those would be what the public least expects - maybe your bar is low, mine and many others' is not. As I said, anyone familiar with operations and contingency planning in a functional organization knows we have been watching a shitshow.

In any case, I did not state 'someone else could have done it right'. I stated there were missed opportunities in this very WH - POTUS himself could have done it right, if he had tangible management skills. All the tools were already there - a good manager knows what questions to ask and who to delegate to.


You are going circles but still wishful thinking.
I mean it SHOULD be the way you say it but nobody actually knows if it ever will.
That's my point. And it's not about a bar being low or high. It just how things are.


Wishful thinking, because of the skill level of the chief executive, is what you mean. Anyway it's silly for you to demand others 'stick to the conversation' when you're conflating issues and throwing strawmen around like they're on fire sale.


Just cause you have trouble differentiating fact from wishful thinking doesn't mean I'm conflating anything.
You're just another person that is stuck with its mindset which is showing through a certain level of dissatisfaction with current administration.
In your fantasy land it can be much better but fact is AGAIN LOL that you do not know that. You just really want it to be true. A lot of people are but it is nothing more that hope I guess. Fact.
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:37 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Cheery picking one sentence that was written with whole context in mind is not the way to do things. In fact that's everything what is wrong with the media today.
We are discussing implication of a major lock down that will bring hell on a lot of peoples lives so if you wanna go philosophical on a tiny part of the whole conversation at least be sure to give notice.
And nobody is spinning anything just stick to the conversation and give notice if you decide to deviate from the topic.

Sorry, no. We all pick elements within posts to focus on and discuss. You are no different. It is not "everything what is wrong with media today" (way to go meta). You spin and deviate as much as anyone does in any normal conversation or thread.

A lockdown does not "bring hell" however it does of course create huge problems. And as others have pointed out the lockdown is supported voluntarily by the population as we see it as a simple and effective way to protect those we love. (Yes, there are also official orders and enforcement but the vast majority are doing so without that being the primary driver.) We understand but can feel the impacts. And some people will be devastated financially, others will be devastated emotionally, and still others will be devastated by the death of a loved one.

No one ever said this was easy or without consequence.
And I think this is enough of the back and forth on this.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:42 pm

Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Panic is now the norm of life,

Plain and simple I am not seeing this at all. People are just working their way through something they did not expect nor were prepared for.

I have not seen fights of any scale or anything like the "panic" you claim anywhere. I see coping, some sadness, some surprise going up to and including shock, I see depression, and I see strength and compassion and resilience.

Doom & gloom all you want, I can't stop you from whatever opinion you want to hold, but It just isn't in evidence.

Tugg


All of what you mention derives from panic. This is caused by sudden fear or anxiety. The definition of panic.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:43 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

There is absolutely nothing wrong with that - it was more scientific to take their counsel than not. And in a novel outbreak situation, we'd be wise to err on the side of science. We only succeeded in the Apollo program because we overengineered and tested everything, to the point of three dead astronauts on the ground and thousands of engineers' divorces and immeasurable missed family time. Nobody mentions the latter now.

With a chemical alarm, you're going to build one that is oversensitive because you would rather the alarm go off and give you a false alarm than to err on the other side. - Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf


To err on the side of science when based on flawed and wrong data we are taking the economy to a depression, there should be a balanced approach.

How about all experts and scientist warn us that a meteor will strike the world and kill much of it, should the world believe them and side with them and err on the side of science?

I live in Florida, I can count many many times meteorologists have said a hurricane will come, only not to show up, I used this example before, its ok to err on the side of science there, but to a certain extent, I am not going to fill my van with my family and drive to Illinois out of fear, I should be prepared here . We should be prepared for pandemics, but not to shut down life the way we have just based on anecdotal information.


You are conflating too many things without nuance to respond to. A quick primer: meteorites ≠ viral pandemics (and 'asteroids' threaten the Earth, they are not 'meteorites' until they survive atmospheric entry - 'meteors' are the ionization trails you see from material burning up in the atmosphere). Hurricane forecast models ≠ viral pandemics. Flawed data ≠ improper or unwise prevention protocols. Scientific illiteracy ≠ objective accuracy about 'overreaction'


Well, to me it seems that either the scientists are throwing projections or calculations that have seriously missed their mark all the while other things un related are getting worse by acting on their recommendations.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:45 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

100% are not hunkered down.

Many are still working jobs, and many kids are still going to school cafeterias to get their meals. Those that can hunker down, have, and it is making all the difference right now.


Well, not 100% but you get the picture.


I do, but you fail too. You say you don't trust the math on all of this, and yet you don't care about wildly incorrect statements about what is going on.


When I mean 100%, I mean people who are not vulnerable or at risk to death from this virus.

Why should I or any other people in the same group like me need to be forced to "hunker down", when I don't live with parents or with vulnerable people. That's what I mean.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:46 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Panic is now the norm of life,

Plain and simple I am not seeing this at all. People are just working their way through something they did not expect nor were prepared for.

I have not seen fights of any scale or anything like the "panic" you claim anywhere. I see coping, some sadness, some surprise going up to and including shock, I see depression, and I see strength and compassion and resilience.

Doom & gloom all you want, I can't stop you from whatever opinion you want to hold, but It just isn't in evidence.

Tugg


All of what you mention derives from panic. This is caused by sudden fear or anxiety. The definition of panic.


Not really, the definition of panic is a rapid firing of neurotransmitters in either the amygdala or hypothalamus.
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