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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:47 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

To err on the side of science when based on flawed and wrong data we are taking the economy to a depression, there should be a balanced approach.

How about all experts and scientist warn us that a meteor will strike the world and kill much of it, should the world believe them and side with them and err on the side of science?

I live in Florida, I can count many many times meteorologists have said a hurricane will come, only not to show up, I used this example before, its ok to err on the side of science there, but to a certain extent, I am not going to fill my van with my family and drive to Illinois out of fear, I should be prepared here . We should be prepared for pandemics, but not to shut down life the way we have just based on anecdotal information.


You are conflating too many things without nuance to respond to. A quick primer: meteorites ≠ viral pandemics (and 'asteroids' threaten the Earth, they are not 'meteorites' until they survive atmospheric entry - 'meteors' are the ionization trails you see from material burning up in the atmosphere). Hurricane forecast models ≠ viral pandemics. Flawed data ≠ improper or unwise prevention protocols. Scientific illiteracy ≠ objective accuracy about 'overreaction'


Well, to me it seems that either the scientists are throwing projections or calculations that have seriously missed their mark all the while other things un related are getting worse by acting on their recommendations.


Oh boy, back to square one. You still don't know why the projections 'missed the mark'? There is no mark - statistical analysis for probability is not target practice.
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kalvado
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:47 pm

Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Frankly speaking, no place on earth is immune to animal-to-human transmission. Check how many cases of leprocy or rabies occur in US, for example. Or remember the case when people with plague were isolated in NYC? That was another close call which could turn very interesting...
Ebola is another thing some believe was a major, but succesfully contained, threat.
There are too many unknown unknowns in biology. Who knows what black bacterial matter would reveal some day, for example?

Sure, but just because we can't prevent all transmissions doesn't mean we should not work hard to stamp out some very obvious paths for transmission.

Pest control is not perfect today, but it's better than in the days of the Plague, and overall we've decided one reason to have sewers and other sanitary facilities is to limit the spread of disease, and no one is recommending we stop doing this.

Ebola is an interesting contrast to COVID-19, in that it symptoms were more readily apparent and severe and it was much more lethal, which was sad but also acted to limit its transmission. COVID-19 symptoms are slow to appear and we are told on average each carrier infects three people largely because they don't know they are carriers.

And it may or may not help - if a new virus with potential to jump to humans is raging among animals - it is a matter of time before it crosses the line.
Sewer is a slightly different thing. It is limiting human to human transmission, R0. Another component of same limiting is "social distancing", if you will.

On a somewhat separate note, I can clearly see an epidemiology text of 2100 (or whatever would replace texts by then) saying "sewers limited disease spread in middle ages - however as late as the beginning of the 21st century face masks still were not commonplace - and even explicitly prohibited in certain places, like France, while being in use in Arabian countries since middle ages (paranja, niqab)"
 
GDB
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:49 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

At the end of the day, many questions need to be answered. The latest projection says 60,000 will die from coronavirus, and doubtless it will even get to that amount, they will revise it down again. 60,000 is the same exact amount of deaths from the "normal" flu season 2017 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-av ... 7-2018.htm

Panic is now the norm of life, its going to take a lot of time to convince people that this won't kill you, and this economy won't recover fast enough.

This is the biggest over reaction to a crisis ever in history at the expense of destroying millions of livelihoods. But you can't say it, without being accused of being something horrible.


No, you can't say it because it's unscientific. Fact - not employing widespread distancing protocols would have dramatically inflated the number of cases, which would do the same with total deaths. Distancing efforts in major populated areas are playing out more successfully than projections assumed they would be, largely thanks to industries taking action before many state governments or DC did. That's the reason you can feel justified in claiming 'panic' and 'overreaction' - because the public health folks are winning the battle. ANYTIME their projections are wrong, the public is winning. You can't argue with math - because numbers don't care about our feelings.

Image


Not disputing the results of the mitigation measures. You had the experts say that as much as 200,000 people would die with the social distancing they have had in place for almost a month now. The math says that the difference from 200,000 people to 60,000 is 140,000 people. That's a huge difference. That's a huge blow to the extreme confidence we have vested on the experts.

They stated back then that if the mitigation efforts weren't in place we would see as much as 2 million people dying. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... -dead.html

I know you have a fixation with the 'data', which is entirely flawed, in a few months when we find out that the number of people who had COVID19 is much much higher than the current numbers, you will find that the death rates and hospitalization rates are extremely higher than what they are.

I have been in this forum saying the same thing for weeks, and I have been getting the same response as you have, yet despite me knowing much about nothing of science and health, I have seen how this has become a serious over reaction.

One thing most of you people don't understand is that for the vast majority of the people in the world and in the US, "Social distancing" is a luxury they can't have. And the amount of people unemployed shows that. The fact you can't dispute that 60,000 people is the amount of people that died from the normal flu in 2017, tells you why we have over reacted.

The damage has been done, and now people won't feel safe to go out unless a vaccine is released, and that won't be for a year or 2. This over reaction, this over confidence in the experts that based their data on flawed projections is going to cost us a global depression.


Speak for yourself, none of us who have to do like social distancing, at least in the rational world. Not working/working from home when possible. This does not of course cover essential workers, in health, care, food production/distribution, police and other government services that cannot be done from home.
You mention 'panic'. Not seen it, again maybe you are equating your own thoughts and reactions with everyone else.
By the number and length of your posts you seem more vexed than most.
Last edited by GDB on Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:49 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

You are going circles but still wishful thinking.
I mean it SHOULD be the way you say it but nobody actually knows if it ever will.
That's my point. And it's not about a bar being low or high. It just how things are.


Wishful thinking, because of the skill level of the chief executive, is what you mean. Anyway it's silly for you to demand others 'stick to the conversation' when you're conflating issues and throwing strawmen around like they're on fire sale.


Just cause you have trouble differentiating fact from wishful thinking doesn't mean I'm conflating anything.
You're just another person that is stuck with its mindset which is showing through a certain level of dissatisfaction with current administration.
In your fantasy land it can be much better but fact is AGAIN LOL that you do not know that. You just really want it to be true. A lot of people are but it is nothing more that hope I guess. Fact.


It's not fantasy land - management is a practical skill that can be evaluated. It is either demonstrated well, mediocre, or poorly. You seem intent on circular discussion and non sequitur so let's leave it at that.
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:53 pm

Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

While every other country is struggling to plateau, cases in China dropped like a rock. Their current official position, no native mainland infections...
.


And you know this for a fact?

Yeah, I was going to say, who actually trusts the numbers out of China?

Tugg


I don't think any sane person would trust or believe China's numbers. I certainly don't subscribe to any of the tinfoil hat brigade's theories, but I find it impossible to believe China only suffered 3,300 Covid-19 deaths.
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art
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:53 pm

Time to consider a phased return to work in lockdown areas where the virus is under control?
Last edited by art on Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:56 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
scbriml wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
There are no new cases of COVID19 in China, only imports by foreign nationals.


If you believe what China says, I have a bridge you might be interested in. :wink2:


While every other country is struggling to plateau, cases in China dropped like a rock. Their current official position, no native mainland infections.

If the rumors are true China is quarantining foreigners including who were in China prior to outbreak by nation at their own cost.

What % of population in China tested for antigen or antibody. Probably negligible.

So, there are is only one tinfoil theory, they have medicine for this.

China keep saying we sequenced in 10 days world is not able to develop a vaccine. No you have the sequence before the outbreak, so does the medicine/vaccine.

Just because 96% matches SARS-Cov-1 doesn't proves rest of the 4% is not engineered.


Actually...forgot about this when it comes to China's "response":
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/asia/chi ... index.html

So basically they're testing Africans in Guangzhou, kicking them out, in the name of "Those Africans has coronavirus"...but hey, let's cry about "westerner" (or even Hong Kong and Taiwan) "discriminating" against mainlanders.

Oh, and the virus was circulating first in mainland China and spreaded around the world...

Waiting for Tedros response to this on his Chinese "friends" in 3...2...1...oh wait, those Renminbis are still flowing in.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:59 pm

Looks like some media outlets are seriously working on getting Fauci fired. They were successful cleaning up Trump cabinet in the past and odds are against Fauci.

Hope Trump stops taking flame-bait and doesn't fire Fauci.
All posts are just opinions.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:00 pm

GDB wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:

No, you can't say it because it's unscientific. Fact - not employing widespread distancing protocols would have dramatically inflated the number of cases, which would do the same with total deaths. Distancing efforts in major populated areas are playing out more successfully than projections assumed they would be, largely thanks to industries taking action before many state governments or DC did. That's the reason you can feel justified in claiming 'panic' and 'overreaction' - because the public health folks are winning the battle. ANYTIME their projections are wrong, the public is winning. You can't argue with math - because numbers don't care about our feelings.

Image


Not disputing the results of the mitigation measures. You had the experts say that as much as 200,000 people would die with the social distancing they have had in place for almost a month now. The math says that the difference from 200,000 people to 60,000 is 140,000 people. That's a huge difference. That's a huge blow to the extreme confidence we have vested on the experts.

They stated back then that if the mitigation efforts weren't in place we would see as much as 2 million people dying. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... -dead.html

I know you have a fixation with the 'data', which is entirely flawed, in a few months when we find out that the number of people who had COVID19 is much much higher than the current numbers, you will find that the death rates and hospitalization rates are extremely higher than what they are.

I have been in this forum saying the same thing for weeks, and I have been getting the same response as you have, yet despite me knowing much about nothing of science and health, I have seen how this has become a serious over reaction.

One thing most of you people don't understand is that for the vast majority of the people in the world and in the US, "Social distancing" is a luxury they can't have. And the amount of people unemployed shows that. The fact you can't dispute that 60,000 people is the amount of people that died from the normal flu in 2017, tells you why we have over reacted.

The damage has been done, and now people won't feel safe to go out unless a vaccine is released, and that won't be for a year or 2. This over reaction, this over confidence in the experts that based their data on flawed projections is going to cost us a global depression.


Speak for yourself, none of us who have to do like social distancing, at least in the rational world. Not working/working from home when possible. This does not of course cover essential workers, in health, care, food production/distribution, police and other government services that cannot be done from home.
You mention 'panic'. Not seen it, again maybe you are equating your own thoughts and reactions with everyone else.
By the number and length of your posts you seem more vexed than most.


You and many here may have the luxury of 'social distancing'. If we ever decide that our lives are not the same as billions of other people on earth, perhaps you might arrive at the same conclusion I have.

The poor, the ones in extreme poverty can't afford this, for the rest, those of us in the middle class, those of us with businesses or jobs we can do from home etc we can endure this and of course take a hit financially, but to look the other way and dismiss all of this as a rational thing to do, when they don't know how they will feed their children, or pay for basic services, yes 'social distancing' is just a luxury we can but others can't enjoy.

Lets leave the current bubble for a moment and think about them.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:01 pm

scbriml wrote:
Tugger wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

And you know this for a fact?

Yeah, I was going to say, who actually trusts the numbers out of China?

Tugg


I don't think any sane person would trust or believe China's numbers. I certainly don't subscribe to any of the tinfoil hat brigade's theories, but I find it impossible to believe China only suffered 3,300 Covid-19 deaths.


Residents of Wuhan reportedly find that impossible to believe too.

https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-r ... low-2020-3
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Aaron747
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:07 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
GDB wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Not disputing the results of the mitigation measures. You had the experts say that as much as 200,000 people would die with the social distancing they have had in place for almost a month now. The math says that the difference from 200,000 people to 60,000 is 140,000 people. That's a huge difference. That's a huge blow to the extreme confidence we have vested on the experts.

They stated back then that if the mitigation efforts weren't in place we would see as much as 2 million people dying. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... -dead.html

I know you have a fixation with the 'data', which is entirely flawed, in a few months when we find out that the number of people who had COVID19 is much much higher than the current numbers, you will find that the death rates and hospitalization rates are extremely higher than what they are.

I have been in this forum saying the same thing for weeks, and I have been getting the same response as you have, yet despite me knowing much about nothing of science and health, I have seen how this has become a serious over reaction.

One thing most of you people don't understand is that for the vast majority of the people in the world and in the US, "Social distancing" is a luxury they can't have. And the amount of people unemployed shows that. The fact you can't dispute that 60,000 people is the amount of people that died from the normal flu in 2017, tells you why we have over reacted.

The damage has been done, and now people won't feel safe to go out unless a vaccine is released, and that won't be for a year or 2. This over reaction, this over confidence in the experts that based their data on flawed projections is going to cost us a global depression.


Speak for yourself, none of us who have to do like social distancing, at least in the rational world. Not working/working from home when possible. This does not of course cover essential workers, in health, care, food production/distribution, police and other government services that cannot be done from home.
You mention 'panic'. Not seen it, again maybe you are equating your own thoughts and reactions with everyone else.
By the number and length of your posts you seem more vexed than most.


You and many here may have the luxury of 'social distancing'. If we ever decide that our lives are not the same as billions of other people on earth, perhaps you might arrive at the same conclusion I have.

The poor, the ones in extreme poverty can't afford this, for the rest, those of us in the middle class, those of us with businesses or jobs we can do from home etc we can endure this and of course take a hit financially, but to look the other way and dismiss all of this as a rational thing to do, when they don't know how they will feed their children, or pay for basic services, yes 'social distancing' is just a luxury we can but others can't enjoy.

Lets leave the current bubble for a moment and think about them.


Again, conflation of issues. The social distancing measure of epidemiological protocol did not cause the hardships for the middle class and poor - hardship was caused by the combination of distancing measures and a lack of contingency planning for the economy by the government. Your blame should be focused on those who failed to anticipate and enact action plans to mitigate these impacts, those who downplayed the economic risks, and leaders who didn't ask the right questions or listen to reasoned and logical advice.

Here's Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners sounding the alarm in the last week of February - were Kushner or Navarro listening?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quBBlYRlDOs
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:12 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
The poor, the ones in extreme poverty can't afford this, for the rest, those of us in the middle class, those of us with businesses or jobs we can do from home etc we can endure this and of course take a hit financially, but to look the other way and dismiss all of this as a rational thing to do, when they don't know how they will feed their children, or pay for basic services, yes 'social distancing' is just a luxury we can but others can't enjoy.

Lets leave the current bubble for a moment and think about them.

I would love to here your solution for this then. As society at large can't have a situation where a virus with unknown end results runs amok throughout the population, I look forward to your thoughtful plan that allows those unfortunate people to afford to do what they need to while not increasing their risk any more than what those that can afford to.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:21 pm

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
GDB wrote:

Speak for yourself, none of us who have to do like social distancing, at least in the rational world. Not working/working from home when possible. This does not of course cover essential workers, in health, care, food production/distribution, police and other government services that cannot be done from home.
You mention 'panic'. Not seen it, again maybe you are equating your own thoughts and reactions with everyone else.
By the number and length of your posts you seem more vexed than most.


You and many here may have the luxury of 'social distancing'. If we ever decide that our lives are not the same as billions of other people on earth, perhaps you might arrive at the same conclusion I have.

The poor, the ones in extreme poverty can't afford this, for the rest, those of us in the middle class, those of us with businesses or jobs we can do from home etc we can endure this and of course take a hit financially, but to look the other way and dismiss all of this as a rational thing to do, when they don't know how they will feed their children, or pay for basic services, yes 'social distancing' is just a luxury we can but others can't enjoy.

Lets leave the current bubble for a moment and think about them.


Again, conflation of issues. The social distancing measure of epidemiological protocol did not cause the hardships for the middle class and poor - hardship was caused by the combination of distancing measures and a lack of contingency planning for the economy by the government. Your blame should be focused on those who failed to anticipate and enact action plans to mitigate these impacts, those who downplayed the economic risks, and leaders who didn't ask the right questions or listen to reasoned and logical advice.

Here's Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners sounding the alarm in the last week of February - were Kushner or Navarro listening?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quBBlYRlDOs


You really think that for a once in a century phenomenon we would have been better prepared? Again you talk in hindsight, you were here in these forums when this was blowing up in China, all we talked about was impeachment. No one was prepared and yes it was a colossal mistake, catastrophic mistake, but you must also take into account the flimsy data and false information coming from China. As far as late January they still said that there was no 'evidence' of human to human transmission, when this began late October early November 2019.

If anyone is real to blame, aside all governments with the exception of South Korea and Taiwan, its China.

And yes its because of the social distancing drastic and over reacting measures that millions have lost their jobs and are losing it as we speak.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:22 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

Well, not 100% but you get the picture.


I do, but you fail too. You say you don't trust the math on all of this, and yet you don't care about wildly incorrect statements about what is going on.


When I mean 100%, I mean people who are not vulnerable or at risk to death from this virus.

Why should I or any other people in the same group like me need to be forced to "hunker down", when I don't live with parents or with vulnerable people. That's what I mean.


Because when you don't hunker down, you are a carrier for it. Just like everyone else. While we hunker and limit contact, we can limit the virus spread. if we can get a trend where the line goes down and we start to understand what areas are being reinfected, then we can open counties and towns that are empty as long as no one travels to susceptible areas.

At this point, that is too dangerous as there are too many cases, and the virus keeps spreading through "essential workers" and "essential needs".
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Revelation
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:28 pm

kalvado wrote:
And it may or may not help - if a new virus with potential to jump to humans is raging among animals - it is a matter of time before it crosses the line.
Sewer is a slightly different thing. It is limiting human to human transmission, R0. Another component of same limiting is "social distancing", if you will.

Wiki ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death ) says:

The Black Death probably originated in Central Asia or East Asia,[8][9][10][11][12] from where it travelled along the Silk Road, reaching Crimea by 1347. From there, it was most likely carried by fleas living on the black rats that travelled on Genoese merchant ships, spreading throughout the Mediterranean Basin and reaching Africa, Western Asia, and the rest of Europe via Constantinople, Sicily, and the Italian Peninsula.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rat#In_th ... of_disease says:

Rats can serve as zoonotic vectors for certain pathogens and thus spread disease, such as bubonic plague, Lassa fever, leptospirosis, and Hantavirus infection.

Control rats ( usually by good sanitary practices ) and you eliminate a frequent carrier of disease.

The old expression "the great is the enemy of the good" applies.

You can't stop working on known issues just because an unknown issue eventually arises.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:42 pm

Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The poor, the ones in extreme poverty can't afford this, for the rest, those of us in the middle class, those of us with businesses or jobs we can do from home etc we can endure this and of course take a hit financially, but to look the other way and dismiss all of this as a rational thing to do, when they don't know how they will feed their children, or pay for basic services, yes 'social distancing' is just a luxury we can but others can't enjoy.

Lets leave the current bubble for a moment and think about them.

I would love to here your solution for this then. As society at large can't have a situation where a virus with unknown end results runs amok throughout the population, I look forward to your thoughtful plan that allows those unfortunate people to afford to do what they need to while not increasing their risk any more than what those that can afford to.

Tugg


My solution is to classify this as a virus more lethal than the flu, but not a death sentence. More data needs to come out, and I am sure they will that will reduce the mortality rate and people can live without so much anxiety and fear.

People need to carry on with their lives, with measures that will mitigate but at the same time allow for society to work and carry on. Those at risk, vulnerable should stay home, but not the rest.

This virus is not going away, and keeping this fear and hysteria for 2 years will not be realistic, we haven't ever stopped the world for the flu or other illnesses, this is unsustainable.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:44 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

I do, but you fail too. You say you don't trust the math on all of this, and yet you don't care about wildly incorrect statements about what is going on.


When I mean 100%, I mean people who are not vulnerable or at risk to death from this virus.

Why should I or any other people in the same group like me need to be forced to "hunker down", when I don't live with parents or with vulnerable people. That's what I mean.


Because when you don't hunker down, you are a carrier for it. Just like everyone else. While we hunker and limit contact, we can limit the virus spread. if we can get a trend where the line goes down and we start to understand what areas are being reinfected, then we can open counties and towns that are empty as long as no one travels to susceptible areas.

At this point, that is too dangerous as there are too many cases, and the virus keeps spreading through "essential workers" and "essential needs".

.
Dangerous for who? dangerous for me to pass it to another person who is not at risk like me? chances are if I get it I won't ever put foot on a hospital. If you can take a look at the hospitalization rate you can see, check the hospitalization rates for people who aren't at risk, the mortality rates.. etc, extremely low.

There is absolutely no risk for people who won't get complicated by COVID19 to carry on with their lives, and of course keeping certain restrictions. That's my point.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:46 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The poor, the ones in extreme poverty can't afford this, for the rest, those of us in the middle class, those of us with businesses or jobs we can do from home etc we can endure this and of course take a hit financially, but to look the other way and dismiss all of this as a rational thing to do, when they don't know how they will feed their children, or pay for basic services, yes 'social distancing' is just a luxury we can but others can't enjoy.

Lets leave the current bubble for a moment and think about them.

I would love to here your solution for this then. As society at large can't have a situation where a virus with unknown end results runs amok throughout the population, I look forward to your thoughtful plan that allows those unfortunate people to afford to do what they need to while not increasing their risk any more than what those that can afford to.

Tugg


My solution is to classify this as a virus more lethal than the flu, but not a death sentence. More data needs to come out, and I am sure they will that will reduce the mortality rate and people can live without so much anxiety and fear.

People need to carry on with their lives, with measures that will mitigate but at the same time allow for society to work and carry on. Those at risk, vulnerable should stay home, but not the rest.

This virus is not going away, and keeping this fear and hysteria for 2 years will not be realistic, we haven't ever stopped the world for the flu or other illnesses, this is unsustainable.

So your solution is to accept that more poorer people must die so that we can continue to live a comfortable life rather than work to find a solution that safeguards everyone equally? That higher deaths of those that must work is OK?

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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mad99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:47 pm

Here in Madrid some people are going back to work today as the number of deaths drop and number of infected decline. We have been on strict lock down, you can’t leave your house except for food (only supermarkets are open) or medical reasons.

I envy other lockdowns like you see in the UK or USA.

I personally think its too early to start back but I guess the plan is acceptable level of death/infections, time will tell.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 4:50 pm

Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
I would love to here your solution for this then. As society at large can't have a situation where a virus with unknown end results runs amok throughout the population, I look forward to your thoughtful plan that allows those unfortunate people to afford to do what they need to while not increasing their risk any more than what those that can afford to.

Tugg


My solution is to classify this as a virus more lethal than the flu, but not a death sentence. More data needs to come out, and I am sure they will that will reduce the mortality rate and people can live without so much anxiety and fear.

People need to carry on with their lives, with measures that will mitigate but at the same time allow for society to work and carry on. Those at risk, vulnerable should stay home, but not the rest.

This virus is not going away, and keeping this fear and hysteria for 2 years will not be realistic, we haven't ever stopped the world for the flu or other illnesses, this is unsustainable.

So your solution is to accept that more poorer people must die so that we can continue to live a comfortable life rather than work to find a solution that safeguards everyone equally? That higher deaths of those that must work is OK?

Tugg


Don't understand where have I said poor people? you can be poor and not be at risk of dying from COVID19. I am saying those who are not at high risk from dying from COVID19 should continue with their lives, that's all.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:01 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
So your solution is to accept that more poorer people must die so that we can continue to live a comfortable life rather than work to find a solution that safeguards everyone equally? That higher deaths of those that must work is OK?

Tugg


Don't understand where have I said poor people? you can be poor and not be at risk of dying from COVID19. I am saying those who are not at high risk from dying from COVID19 should continue with their lives, that's all.

OK. And who are those people exactly? You have a process and plan for determining this? (And a population demographic like "young" is not sufficient.)

Also what "risk level" is acceptable? The same rate as for the "regular" flu? I assume that would need to be the same for each population category (i.e. "young people" wil COVID-19 shouldn't die at the rate of older people with compromised immune systems do from the regular flu, etc)?

Tugg
Last edited by Tugger on Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:04 pm

mad99 wrote:
Here in Madrid some people are going back to work today as the number of deaths drop and number of infected decline. We have been on strict lock down, you can’t leave your house except for food (only supermarkets are open) or medical reasons.

I envy other lockdowns like you see in the UK or USA.

I personally think its too early to start back but I guess the plan is acceptable level of death/infections, time will tell.


I was reading on BBC and it only seems like it is things like construction and manufacturing being reopened. Is that true?

When it comes to construction, it is deemed "essential business" in some states, and thus, lives goes on. In fact, there are probably 10x more road constructions going on right now near where I lived (Indiana in US) as those companies are taking advantage of the much lower traffic volume (and thus, much smaller traffic impact).
 
kalvado
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:10 pm

Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:
And it may or may not help - if a new virus with potential to jump to humans is raging among animals - it is a matter of time before it crosses the line.
Sewer is a slightly different thing. It is limiting human to human transmission, R0. Another component of same limiting is "social distancing", if you will.

Wiki ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death ) says:

The Black Death probably originated in Central Asia or East Asia,[8][9][10][11][12] from where it travelled along the Silk Road, reaching Crimea by 1347. From there, it was most likely carried by fleas living on the black rats that travelled on Genoese merchant ships, spreading throughout the Mediterranean Basin and reaching Africa, Western Asia, and the rest of Europe via Constantinople, Sicily, and the Italian Peninsula.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rat#In_th ... of_disease says:

Rats can serve as zoonotic vectors for certain pathogens and thus spread disease, such as bubonic plague, Lassa fever, leptospirosis, and Hantavirus infection.

Control rats ( usually by good sanitary practices ) and you eliminate a frequent carrier of disease.

The old expression "the great is the enemy of the good" applies.

You can't stop working on known issues just because an unknown issue eventually arises.

Great thinking!

Now, how efficient sanitary rat control? Not 100%.
An example in your face: https://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/08/heal ... -york.html
What saved the day is proper sanitary control of human to human transmission. Another slice of cheese, if you will.

What is most embarassing in COVID situation - that second slice turned out to be totally inefficient. In US - criminaly limp, I would say.

And, since we're on a.net - this is a VERY close match to 737MAX fiasco. A very clear sign of a problem, twiddling thumbs about "poor piloting", "poor hygiene", "it wouldn't happen with US3 pilots" - and then suddenly it is real over the face.

Moral: You can't stop working on known issues just because an unknown issue eventually arises. Happy end is guaranteed only in Hollywood.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:15 pm

mad99 wrote:
I envy other lockdowns like you see in the UK or USA.


I'm not sure why, when some experts are predicting that UK deaths will possibly exceed those of Italy. The UK's 'official numbers' also only count people who tested positive and died in hospital. Deaths in care homes (there have been plenty by all accounts) are not currently included. I don't think the UK government has handled this as well as they might have.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12675 ... ic-peak-uk

We seem to be running critically short of PPE for NHS staff - there have been lots of reports about this and only long-winded non-answers from politicians.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:17 pm

kalvado wrote:
Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:
And it may or may not help - if a new virus with potential to jump to humans is raging among animals - it is a matter of time before it crosses the line.
Sewer is a slightly different thing. It is limiting human to human transmission, R0. Another component of same limiting is "social distancing", if you will.

Wiki ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death ) says:

The Black Death probably originated in Central Asia or East Asia,[8][9][10][11][12] from where it travelled along the Silk Road, reaching Crimea by 1347. From there, it was most likely carried by fleas living on the black rats that travelled on Genoese merchant ships, spreading throughout the Mediterranean Basin and reaching Africa, Western Asia, and the rest of Europe via Constantinople, Sicily, and the Italian Peninsula.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rat#In_th ... of_disease says:

Rats can serve as zoonotic vectors for certain pathogens and thus spread disease, such as bubonic plague, Lassa fever, leptospirosis, and Hantavirus infection.

Control rats ( usually by good sanitary practices ) and you eliminate a frequent carrier of disease.

The old expression "the great is the enemy of the good" applies.

You can't stop working on known issues just because an unknown issue eventually arises.

Great thinking!

Now, how efficient sanitary rat control? Not 100%.
An example in your face: https://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/08/heal ... -york.html
What saved the day is proper sanitary control of human to human transmission. Another slice of cheese, if you will.

What is most embarassing in COVID situation - that second slice turned out to be totally inefficient. In US - criminaly limp, I would say.

And, since we're on a.net - this is a VERY close match to 737MAX fiasco. A very clear sign of a problem, twiddling thumbs about "poor piloting", "poor hygiene", "it wouldn't happen with US3 pilots" - and then suddenly it is real over the face.

Moral: You can't stop working on known issues just because an unknown issue eventually arises. Happy end is guaranteed only in Hollywood.


Ah! Deflector shield appeared.

FYI nothing saved the day at this point. Fact is there's no saving the day. This is forever with us to a lesser or higher degree.
Covering the cause is criminal. Everybody else is just learning to live with it.
Last edited by PixelPilot on Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:19 pm

Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
So your solution is to accept that more poorer people must die so that we can continue to live a comfortable life rather than work to find a solution that safeguards everyone equally? That higher deaths of those that must work is OK?

Tugg


Don't understand where have I said poor people? you can be poor and not be at risk of dying from COVID19. I am saying those who are not at high risk from dying from COVID19 should continue with their lives, that's all.

OK. And who are those people exactly? You have a process and plan for determining this? (And a population demographic like "young" is not sufficient.)

Also what "risk level" is acceptable? The same rate as for the "regular" flu? I assume that would need to be the same for each population category (i.e. "young people" wil COVID-19 shouldn't die at the rate of older people with compromised immune systems do from the regular flu, etc)?

Tugg


Don't understand your position. You mean to say no one should go out until a vaccine comes out? 12 to 18 months minimum? because that's where you are getting at.

I thought the point of 'flattening' the curve was not to over run our health facilities. That did not happen. So now keeping these restrictions for 100% of the population gets us where exactly? If people don't want to go out and not get infected, they shouldn't that's all, let the rest of us go about our business.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:22 pm

The curse of a free society is that there is more freedom.... freedom to make mistakes, government slower to lock down people, limits on the power of government to impose upon it's citizens, etc.

So for better or worse, I will not be surprised to find we have a higher death rate from the COVID-19 virus than other more "controlled/limited freedom" countries.

And I am essentially OK with that as I understand the "why" of it.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
kalvado
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:22 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Wiki ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death ) says:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rat#In_th ... of_disease says:


Control rats ( usually by good sanitary practices ) and you eliminate a frequent carrier of disease.

The old expression "the great is the enemy of the good" applies.

You can't stop working on known issues just because an unknown issue eventually arises.

Great thinking!

Now, how efficient sanitary rat control? Not 100%.
An example in your face: https://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/08/heal ... -york.html
What saved the day is proper sanitary control of human to human transmission. Another slice of cheese, if you will.

What is most embarassing in COVID situation - that second slice turned out to be totally inefficient. In US - criminaly limp, I would say.

And, since we're on a.net - this is a VERY close match to 737MAX fiasco. A very clear sign of a problem, twiddling thumbs about "poor piloting", "poor hygiene", "it wouldn't happen with US3 pilots" - and then suddenly it is real over the face.

Moral: You can't stop working on known issues just because an unknown issue eventually arises. Happy end is guaranteed only in Hollywood.


Ah! Deflector shield appeared.

FYI nothing saved the day at this point.Fact is there's no saving the day. This is forever with us to a lesser or higher degree.

For those who cannot follow links:
"Save the day" was in regards to black plague cases in NYC in 2002. THEN, we got spared. Overall, black plague is a great litmus test for any disease control conclusions: United States has single-digit to low double digit annual black plague cases. Animal to human transmission is real, and it happens here and now.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:29 pm

kalvado wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Great thinking!

Now, how efficient sanitary rat control? Not 100%.
An example in your face: https://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/08/heal ... -york.html
What saved the day is proper sanitary control of human to human transmission. Another slice of cheese, if you will.

What is most embarassing in COVID situation - that second slice turned out to be totally inefficient. In US - criminaly limp, I would say.

And, since we're on a.net - this is a VERY close match to 737MAX fiasco. A very clear sign of a problem, twiddling thumbs about "poor piloting", "poor hygiene", "it wouldn't happen with US3 pilots" - and then suddenly it is real over the face.

Moral: You can't stop working on known issues just because an unknown issue eventually arises. Happy end is guaranteed only in Hollywood.


Ah! Deflector shield appeared.

FYI nothing saved the day at this point.Fact is there's no saving the day. This is forever with us to a lesser or higher degree.

For those who cannot follow links:
"Save the day" was in regards to black plague cases in NYC in 2002. THEN, we got spared. Overall, black plague is a great litmus test for any disease control conclusions: United States has single-digit to low double digit annual black plague cases. Animal to human transmission is real, and it happens here and now.


My bad in this case.
I read the sentence too far.

As for US being criminally limp. Well I guess here we are again. CCP propaganda.
Carry on agent.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:31 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

When I mean 100%, I mean people who are not vulnerable or at risk to death from this virus.

Why should I or any other people in the same group like me need to be forced to "hunker down", when I don't live with parents or with vulnerable people. That's what I mean.


Because when you don't hunker down, you are a carrier for it. Just like everyone else. While we hunker and limit contact, we can limit the virus spread. if we can get a trend where the line goes down and we start to understand what areas are being reinfected, then we can open counties and towns that are empty as long as no one travels to susceptible areas.

At this point, that is too dangerous as there are too many cases, and the virus keeps spreading through "essential workers" and "essential needs".

.
Dangerous for who? dangerous for me to pass it to another person who is not at risk like me? chances are if I get it I won't ever put foot on a hospital. If you can take a look at the hospitalization rate you can see, check the hospitalization rates for people who aren't at risk, the mortality rates.. etc, extremely low.

There is absolutely no risk for people who won't get complicated by COVID19 to carry on with their lives, and of course keeping certain restrictions. That's my point.


And those people who are essential workers are carrying on with their lives by working from home, or if necessary at an office. Those that are coming into contact with others are taking precautions.

if you are unable to work from home, or your job has been considered non-essential, then you need to wait it out like everyone else, and work on some hobbies, home/car repair, or career advancement options.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
kalvado
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:31 pm

PixelPilot wrote:
kalvado wrote:
PixelPilot wrote:

Ah! Deflector shield appeared.

FYI nothing saved the day at this point.Fact is there's no saving the day. This is forever with us to a lesser or higher degree.

For those who cannot follow links:
"Save the day" was in regards to black plague cases in NYC in 2002. THEN, we got spared. Overall, black plague is a great litmus test for any disease control conclusions: United States has single-digit to low double digit annual black plague cases. Animal to human transmission is real, and it happens here and now.


My bad in this case.
I read the sentence too far.

As for US being criminally limp. Well I guess here we are again. CCP propaganda.
Carry on agent.

NYT has a lengthy article on how FDA and CDC could, but failed, adress the issue. Are they agents as well?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:33 pm

kalvado wrote:
Great thinking!

Now, how efficient sanitary rat control? Not 100%.
An example in your face: https://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/08/heal ... -york.html
What saved the day is proper sanitary control of human to human transmission. Another slice of cheese, if you will.

What is most embarassing in COVID situation - that second slice turned out to be totally inefficient. In US - criminaly limp, I would say.

And, since we're on a.net - this is a VERY close match to 737MAX fiasco. A very clear sign of a problem, twiddling thumbs about "poor piloting", "poor hygiene", "it wouldn't happen with US3 pilots" - and then suddenly it is real over the face.

Moral: You can't stop working on known issues just because an unknown issue eventually arises. Happy end is guaranteed only in Hollywood.

Correct.

I'm not sure why the expectation would be for 100% elimination, I think that is impossible. As I wrote, "the great is the enemy of the good".

I remember in my youth hearing that Japanese soldiers were still fighting WWII decades after it "ended" ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiroo_Onoda ). Every bell curve has tails.

I'll say that pointing out someone else's arrogance makes you come across as being arrogant.

I think you will find that most people in the US are ignoring anything said by the current US Administration past present or future with regard to the virus, and think you may want to follow that practice.

Airbus has raised similar questions about world wide pilot training levels so you are letting your emotional need to take offense rule your logic.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:34 pm

casinterest wrote:
then you need to wait it out like everyone else, and work on some hobbies, home/car repair, or career advancement options.



Wait until when exactly? 12 to 18 months for a vaccine ? wasn't the point of staying home is not to overwhelm the health facilities? now that it did not happen, what exactly are we waiting for? the vaccine? you want to pause economic activity for the majority of the people till a vaccine? Is that what you mean? because at this point why else should we stay 'hunkered' down?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Tugger
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:35 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
OK. And who are those people exactly? You have a process and plan for determining this? (And a population demographic like "young" is not sufficient.)

Also what "risk level" is acceptable? The same rate as for the "regular" flu? I assume that would need to be the same for each population category (i.e. "young people" wil COVID-19 shouldn't die at the rate of older people with compromised immune systems do from the regular flu, etc)?

Tugg


Don't understand your position. You mean to say no one should go out until a vaccine comes out? 12 to 18 months minimum? because that's where you are getting at.

I thought the point of 'flattening' the curve was not to over run our health facilities. That did not happen. So now keeping these restrictions for 100% of the population gets us where exactly? If people don't want to go out and not get infected, they shouldn't that's all, let the rest of us go about our business.

Nope, wrong. That is not what I am saying.

What I am saying, and you appear to be avoiding, is: What is your proposed plan?

Your solution currently appears to be: Open 'er up! Lets get everyone going and together with no limits. Do as you feel best.
That's not really a "plan". Am I missing something?

Also you specifically said:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The poor, the ones in extreme poverty can't afford this,
[...]
think about them.

(selectively quoting but I do not think I am leaving out anything from your statement that miss-frames what I am highlighting)

How will whatever you are proposing "think about them" as equals? As people that should not be relegated to higher death/injury risk simply because they cannot afford it? (Also what if these people do not have health insurance?)

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:37 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
then you need to wait it out like everyone else, and work on some hobbies, home/car repair, or career advancement options.



Wait until when exactly? 12 to 18 months for a vaccine ? wasn't the point of staying home is not to overwhelm the health facilities? now that it did not happen, what exactly are we waiting for? the vaccine? you want to pause economic activity for the majority of the people till a vaccine? Is that what you mean? because at this point why else should we stay 'hunkered' down?
\
Because if the MAJORITY goes back to work, we will overwhelm the facilities. Or do you want a special exemption just for you?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:38 pm

kalvado wrote:

Overall, black plague is a great litmus test for any disease control conclusions: United States has single-digit to low double digit annual black plague cases. Animal to human transmission is real, and it happens here and now.

It's a nonsense to say because we have on average 12 black plague cases per year that this is some sort of litmus test.

I'd gladly settle for 12 cases per year of covid-19 but we probably will never get there, or if so it'll take decades for the last carrier to die off.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:41 pm

Tugger wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
OK. And who are those people exactly? You have a process and plan for determining this? (And a population demographic like "young" is not sufficient.)

Also what "risk level" is acceptable? The same rate as for the "regular" flu? I assume that would need to be the same for each population category (i.e. "young people" wil COVID-19 shouldn't die at the rate of older people with compromised immune systems do from the regular flu, etc)?

Tugg


Don't understand your position. You mean to say no one should go out until a vaccine comes out? 12 to 18 months minimum? because that's where you are getting at.

I thought the point of 'flattening' the curve was not to over run our health facilities. That did not happen. So now keeping these restrictions for 100% of the population gets us where exactly? If people don't want to go out and not get infected, they shouldn't that's all, let the rest of us go about our business.

Nope, wrong. That is not what I am saying.

What I am saying, and you appear to be avoiding, is: What is your proposed plan?

Your solution currently appears to be: Open 'er up! Lets get everyone going and together with no limits. Do as you feel best.
That's not really a "plan". Am I missing something?

Also you specifically said:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
The poor, the ones in extreme poverty can't afford this,
[...]
think about them.

(selectively quoting but I do not think I am leaving out anything from your statement that miss-frames what I am highlighting)

How will whatever you are proposing "think about them" as equals? As people that should not be relegated to higher death/injury risk simply because they cannot afford it? (Also what if these people do not have health insurance?)

Tugg


I haven't said without limits? I have said those not at risk. I have clarified to you many times already.

What exactly do you propose then? you think there is sufficient money to spread around and feed millions of people? and pay their bills? rents mortgages?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
kalvado
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Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Great thinking!

Now, how efficient sanitary rat control? Not 100%.
An example in your face: https://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/08/heal ... -york.html
What saved the day is proper sanitary control of human to human transmission. Another slice of cheese, if you will.

What is most embarassing in COVID situation - that second slice turned out to be totally inefficient. In US - criminaly limp, I would say.

And, since we're on a.net - this is a VERY close match to 737MAX fiasco. A very clear sign of a problem, twiddling thumbs about "poor piloting", "poor hygiene", "it wouldn't happen with US3 pilots" - and then suddenly it is real over the face.

Moral: You can't stop working on known issues just because an unknown issue eventually arises. Happy end is guaranteed only in Hollywood.

Correct.

I'm not sure why the expectation would be for 100% elimination, I think that is impossible. As I wrote, "the great is the enemy of the good".

I remember in my youth hearing that Japanese soldiers were still fighting WWII decades after it "ended" ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiroo_Onoda ). Every bell curve has tails.

I'll say that pointing out someone else's arrogance makes you come across as being arrogant.

I think you will find that most people in the US are ignoring anything said by the current US Administration past present or future with regard to the virus, and think you may want to follow that practice.

Airbus has raised similar questions about world wide pilot training levels so you are letting your emotional need to take offense rule your logic.


You see, it is always about cost-benefit ratio. Improving each slice of cheese is a good idea, but some slices give better return of investment than others. In these two cases, US slices of the story basically have to be replaces with fresh ones - and that would be a good start.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:43 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
then you need to wait it out like everyone else, and work on some hobbies, home/car repair, or career advancement options.



Wait until when exactly? 12 to 18 months for a vaccine ? wasn't the point of staying home is not to overwhelm the health facilities? now that it did not happen, what exactly are we waiting for? the vaccine? you want to pause economic activity for the majority of the people till a vaccine? Is that what you mean? because at this point why else should we stay 'hunkered' down?
\
Because if the MAJORITY goes back to work, we will overwhelm the facilities. Or do you want a special exemption just for you?


NO we won't overwhelm them, NY did not get even to half of their capacity, right now there are a lot of ventilators around, enough for a spike. No one died in the US because of a lack of a ventilator, that's according to NY governor Cuomo.

Ok great, so you propose we keep these restrictions till a vaccine comes out. That's your opinion, and you are entitled to it. Do you know that SARS appeared in 2002 and there is no vaccine as of today? what happens if we don't find a vaccine for COVID19 2 years from now?
Last edited by AirWorthy99 on Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
N212R
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:45 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Looks like some media outlets are seriously working on getting Fauci fired. They were successful cleaning up Trump cabinet in the past and odds are against Fauci.

Hope Trump stops taking flame-bait and doesn't fire Fauci.


I don't think Fauci is any better or worse than many others in the bio-medico-pharmo-politico-foundationo-WHO Nexus. He is an effective communicator and a steady presence. Better to not throw out the doctor with the bedpan water.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:47 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:


Wait until when exactly? 12 to 18 months for a vaccine ? wasn't the point of staying home is not to overwhelm the health facilities? now that it did not happen, what exactly are we waiting for? the vaccine? you want to pause economic activity for the majority of the people till a vaccine? Is that what you mean? because at this point why else should we stay 'hunkered' down?
\
Because if the MAJORITY goes back to work, we will overwhelm the facilities. Or do you want a special exemption just for you?


Ok great, so you propose we keep these restrictions till a vaccine comes out. That's your opinion, and you are entitled to it. Do you know that SARS appeared in 2002 and there is no vaccine as of today? what happens if we don't find a vaccine for COVID19 2 years from now?


No I propose we keep it until we have everything under control. In a country with a lot of freedoms, we can't just lock things down as China did and monitor everyone.Unless we see the number of cases go down to basically a manageable number, and by manageable, one where an army of health care providers understand who has it, or a treatment plan emerges that saves lives, . the economy is going to remain locked a bit. The alternative is opening it up for 2 weeks, just to close down for 3 more months.
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kalvado
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:50 pm

Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:

Overall, black plague is a great litmus test for any disease control conclusions: United States has single-digit to low double digit annual black plague cases. Animal to human transmission is real, and it happens here and now.

It's a nonsense to say because we have on average 12 black plague cases per year that this is some sort of litmus test.

I'd gladly settle for 12 cases per year of covid-19 but we probably will never get there, or if so it'll take decades for the last carrier to die off.

What I mean to say, humans do get infected with animal diseases - even nasty ones, like plague. 10 cases is not a lot - but only because those 10 cases are isolated and treated. Get one of those into NYC subway - and you have a much bigger problem at your hand.
It is luck plus diligent control, probably on physician/ER room level, what doesn't let disease spread.

People blame China for allowing animal to human transition to happen at all - but such transitions happen everywhere, that's my message. What complicates COVID situation - virus was pretty much an unknown unknown - unlike plague which is a well-described disease.

Another problem which may strike close to home:
https://www.contagionlive.com/news/lepr ... ian-argues
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 5:57 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
I haven't said without limits? I have said those not at risk. I have clarified to you many times already.

What exactly do you propose then? you think there is sufficient money to spread around and feed millions of people? and pay their bills? rents mortgages?

And we are back to you again not answering
Tugger wrote:
What I am saying, and you appear to be avoiding, is: What is your proposed plan?


I have not seen anything regarding that "clarified".

Tugg
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:03 pm

The most important thing in the short term is testing, and an accurate quick one that will allow us to know the extent of the virus. Once there is a test in place, we can absolutely re-open many things... with the caveat that there does need to be precautions taken by many until a vaccine is done. PPE while out in public gatherings and recommended limits depending is probably the most obvious. And when there is an infection testing can allow tracing and determine who is exposed. That is the path to manageable treatment of an outbreak by our medical services.

Comprehensive? No. A plan? Certainly not, just a starting point. I do trust medical professionals to create something workable.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:10 pm

kalvado wrote:
Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:

Overall, black plague is a great litmus test for any disease control conclusions: United States has single-digit to low double digit annual black plague cases. Animal to human transmission is real, and it happens here and now.

It's a nonsense to say because we have on average 12 black plague cases per year that this is some sort of litmus test.

I'd gladly settle for 12 cases per year of covid-19 but we probably will never get there, or if so it'll take decades for the last carrier to die off.

What I mean to say, humans do get infected with animal diseases - even nasty ones, like plague. 10 cases is not a lot - but only because those 10 cases are isolated and treated. Get one of those into NYC subway - and you have a much bigger problem at your hand.
It is luck plus diligent control, probably on physician/ER room level, what doesn't let disease spread.

Fair enough.

kalvado wrote:
People blame China for allowing animal to human transition to happen at all - but such transitions happen everywhere, that's my message.

No, people criticize China for having huge open air wet markets in major urban areas and doing nothing about it.

It's a lot different than some fleas hopping on to a tourist in Arizona.

kalvado wrote:
What complicates COVID situation - virus was pretty much an unknown unknown - unlike plague which is a well-described disease.

Another problem which may strike close to home:
https://www.contagionlive.com/news/lepr ... ian-argues

I'm still not sure why we're talking so much about potential outbreaks when we have an actual one right in front of us.

We're know there's an open door, we should close it and then address the next open door.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:17 pm

Tugger wrote:
The most important thing in the short term is testing, and an accurate quick one that will allow us to know the extent of the virus. Once there is a test in place, we can absolutely re-open many things... with the caveat that there does need to be precautions taken by many until a vaccine is done. PPE while out in public gatherings and recommended limits depending is probably the most obvious. And when there is an infection testing can allow tracing and determine who is exposed. That is the path to manageable treatment of an outbreak by our medical services.

Comprehensive? No. A plan? Certainly not, just a starting point. I do trust medical professionals to create something workable.

Tugg

Even something as rudimentary as fever checks would do a lot.
This virus has an R0 of somewhat above 2 - meaning that on average 2.2 people get infected by a single infected person. It is important to remember, that 2.2 is in 2019 lifestyle.
Adjustment of lifestyle can bring this number down - and below 1 epidemics die out. None of control measures are perfect, but:
-masks (always when not at home/ in personal car)
-6 feet - whenever possible
-no in-person meetings until absolutely needed.
-no big events (conerts, sports, etc)
-Minimize in-person shopping. Self-service checkouts. I, for one, went from 2-3-4 grocery stops a week (sometimes just for a gallon of milk, or even because I urgently need some cookies) to a pre-planned once a week.

If we can reduce person-to-person interaction by a factor of 3, that will do it.

That leaves out a lot of issues - public transportation which is often packed; sit-down restraunts, where mouth must be open, shopping malls.

But.. we need to
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:29 pm

Revelation wrote:

kalvado wrote:
People blame China for allowing animal to human transition to happen at all - but such transitions happen everywhere, that's my message.

No, people criticize China for having huge open air wet markets in major urban areas and doing nothing about it.

It's a lot different than some fleas hopping on to a tourist in Arizona.

And it is not proven that fresh food market was the starting point - it is being argued it was a spreading venue, and that makes sence. How efficient is a total change of lifestyle? Should US lead by example with closing of farm stores and farmer markets?
Some infection recalls occur every few weeks even in industrial supply chain, you know, so it is just one layer of cheese stack.



Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:
What complicates COVID situation - virus was pretty much an unknown unknown - unlike plague which is a well-described disease.

Another problem which may strike close to home:
https://www.contagionlive.com/news/lepr ... ian-argues

I'm still not sure why we're talking so much about potential outbreaks when we have an actual one right in front of us.

We're know there's an open door, we should close it and then address the next open door.

Because you see the open door somewhere, and happy that someone else would have to pay for it - but I see an open door close to home, and I argue closing that door is more efficient as it represents a much more imminent problem. As a wise man said,
You can't stop working on known issues just because an unknown issue eventually arises.

Inefficient bureaucracy is a known issue, and failure costs are escalating. It needs to be addressed.
 
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 6:57 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
I thought the point of 'flattening' the curve was not to over run our health facilities. That did not happen. So now keeping these restrictions for 100% of the population gets us where exactly? If people don't want to go out and not get infected, they shouldn't that's all, let the rest of us go about our business.


Sort of agree.

I think a managed restart of some personnel in some parts of the shutdown economies with flattened infection curves should be undertaken.

Criteria dor selection: lower risk and not lwith high risk cohabitants
Monitor infection and illness levels.
If acceptable, extend the pilot otherwise contract or abandon.

<
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:05 pm

Interesting opinion article for our those that want to force the economy open.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/opinions ... index.html
hirty years ago, the tuberculosis (TB) expert Dr. Lee Reichman coined the term, "The U-shaped curve of concern" to describe the challenges of TB control. His notion was this: When a disease like TB is rampant, dollars, attention and expertise are brought to bear. Soon, cases decrease, creating the sinking left-hand side of the "U."

But this success soon creates a new challenge. The once rampant TB problem appears to have been fixed, at least to those in charge of the budget, so the dollars, attention, and expertise are redirected to another pressing problem.
For a while -- perhaps a week, a month, a year -- this seems like a good move. But then WHAM, rampant TB returns and the rapid rise in cases forges the rising right-hand side of the "U" -- reflecting the awful truth that the problem is back. And worst of all, this cycle is never-ending -- a surge in cases brings panic, panic brings resources, resources bring control, control brings calm, calm brings inattention, inattention brings cases, cases bring panic -- here we go again, ad infinitum.


This curve flattening was never designed to decrease the total number of cases; only to redistribute them over a longer period of time, so that hospitals could handle the work and save more lives. A flat curve is a wonderful thing but does not end the pandemic, it only allows us to manage it intelligently.
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Re: Coronavirus Non Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:11 pm

kalvado wrote:
Revelation wrote:
kalvado wrote:
People blame China for allowing animal to human transition to happen at all - but such transitions happen everywhere, that's my message.

No, people criticize China for having huge open air wet markets in major urban areas and doing nothing about it.

It's a lot different than some fleas hopping on to a tourist in Arizona.

And it is not proven that fresh food market was the starting point - it is being argued it was a spreading venue, and that makes sence. How efficient is a total change of lifestyle? Should US lead by example with closing of farm stores and farmer markets?

I can honestly say I've never seen a "farm store" in the US that would foster zoonic tranfser in the way the Chinese wet markets do.

I can honestly say I've never seen anything like a bat (live or dead) being offered for human consumption, or any other form of wild life, or cages of various live wild life being stacked on top of each other with a vendor offering to kill it for me right there on the spot.

I've seen nothing like we see in reports such as https://www.foxnews.com/world/chinas-we ... sual-items

The closest thing I've seen is an open air seafood market like Seattle's Pike Street Market, but the seafood is all on ice or refrigerated and nothing is being killed on the spot and you don't see animal guts or blood or droppings anywhere. I think the closest open air seafood market anywhere near me is in Boston but that's about it. So we're talking a small number in all of the New England states, none with a history of zoonic transfer, whereas Wuhan alone has over 400 wet markets.

Your "what about those 12 cases of plague a year" is a prime example of whataboutism.

You are using a lack of perfection in the US to excuse huge obvious issues elsewhere.

Even China sees an issue it is trying to address: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-0 ... 870622.htm

kalvado wrote:
Because you see the open door somewhere, and happy that someone else would have to pay for it - but I see an open door close to home, and I argue closing that door is more efficient as it represents a much more imminent problem. As a wise man said,
You can't stop working on known issues just because an unknown issue eventually arises.

Inefficient bureaucracy is a known issue, and failure costs are escalating. It needs to be addressed.

It is not about "elsewhere". If there are markets offering live or dead bats for consumption or stacks of caged wild life for human consumption in the US I want them closed as well.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own

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