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StuckinCMHland
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End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:35 pm

Just for something different:

There have been many posts about the Virus, and many many good discussions about it. However, in talking about it we have done everything but discuss when the world-wide emergency will end.

Let's do it by country, or by continent if you wish, but let's start thinking about and hoping when life will settle back to the normal craziness...

Thanks for your predictions!
 
Jalap
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:03 pm

It won't fully end till there is a vaccine. Say early 2021.

Our freedom to move around could be released earlier if better treatments for the seriously ill become available. Let's hope this is way sooner than early 2021.

Now, considering that this virus wants to travel around, I predict that travel will be the last sector that'll see its restrictions released.

With the measures that are being taken now, I expect we'll see virus-free regions popping up. Measures can be lifted region per region, but travel to and from those regions will remain very restricted.
 
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Revelation
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:41 pm

Why focus on something outside of your control like when the emergency will end and why not just work on better ways to stay active and healthy during the emergency?
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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rfields5421
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:19 am

A mixture of pessimism and optimism.

I think by the end of May, the curve will be down that travel restrictions will be lifted in much of the US. But it is going to still be around, people getting sick and dying until next year.

I only hope it proves to be a had it once, immune in the future, disease.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
DLFREEBIRD
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:26 am

Oct. for US
Aug for China except for HongKong
Dec for Europe
 
889091
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:26 am

The big assumption we are making here is that Covid19 will not mutate into something more sinister....

Doc, if you're reading this - is there any possibility of Covid19 combining with Ebola? If so, I think we've just about had it as the human race......
 
N757ST
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:35 am

889091 wrote:
The big assumption we are making here is that Covid19 will not mutate into something more sinister....

Doc, if you're reading this - is there any possibility of Covid19 combining with Ebola? If so, I think we've just about had it as the human race......


Viruses tend to become less deadly. It makes sense, the longer they can stay in the host the more it can spread.

Ebola and SARS? Look for a science fiction thread to find you answer.
 
rfields5421
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:29 am

N757ST wrote:
Ebola and SARS? Look for a science fiction thread to find you answer.


Heck, I've already got most of a SciFi/Alt History novella outlined based on a US without a sufficient the population to sustain technology, distribute food move than a day on foot. Basically 2020 becomes 1821 with no zombies.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:27 am

I see some countries extending the ban or quarantine of anyone coming from China until a vaccine has been successfully deployed in an attempt to avoid a second wave. Other countries may be included in that ban/quarantine. In other words, international travel will be a mess well into next year.
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melpax
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:53 am

Here in Australia, I suspect the interstate travel restrictions & restrictions on gatherings, etc might be lifted in August/September after the worst of the winter weather. The AFL (Aussie Rules Football) is talking about a possible late December or Early 2021 Grand Final, which would tie in with a possible resumption of the season in August/ early September. The figures from the last couple of days have some experts hopeful that the curve may be starting to flatten out here, especially as it's now been a week since those returning from overseas have been placed in govenment quarantine, instead of self-isolating at home. The vast majority of cases are from those returning from overseas, and their close contacts, with a relatively small number of 'community transmitted' cases. Sydney/NSW is the worst affected state, looking at the statistics in Melbourne, the worst hit areas are some of Melbourne's wealthiest suburbs in the inner-eastern suburbs such as Toorak, and Malvern.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoi ... ViOWYyOCJ9

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/vict ... 54gp9.html
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Dutchy
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:38 am

DLFREEBIRD wrote:
Oct. for US
Aug for China except for HongKong
Dec for Europe


The US was behind the curve compared to Europe, so the end will probably be later as well.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:08 am

Jalap wrote:
It won't fully end till there is a vaccine. Say early 2021.


This. Until we have a vaccine and we have vaccinated a large portion of the population or that enough people have had it so they are immune, this will not stop, unfortunately. So early 2021 is a good prediction in my book.

This is a worldwide problem, and I am concerned for Africa, it is not a matter of if, but a matter of when we will see the rise in cases in Africa.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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Aaron747
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:11 am

Dutchy wrote:
Jalap wrote:
It won't fully end till there is a vaccine. Say early 2021.


This. Until we have a vaccine and we have vaccinated a large portion of the population or that enough people have had it so they are immune, this will not stop, unfortunately. So early 2021 is a good prediction in my book.

This is a worldwide problem, and I am concerned for Africa, it is not a matter of if, but a matter of when we will see the rise in cases in Africa.


Antibody serology testing will be of big help once available - and it looks like this may come rather soon. While not as helpful as a vaccine, it will allow authorities to stratify risk more accurately and isolate at-risk individuals while those cleared of being contagious can be out and about again.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
olle
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:39 am

Dutchy wrote:
Jalap wrote:
It won't fully end till there is a vaccine. Say early 2021.


This. Until we have a vaccine and we have vaccinated a large portion of the population or that enough people have had it so they are immune, this will not stop, unfortunately. So early 2021 is a good prediction in my book.

This is a worldwide problem, and I am concerned for Africa, it is not a matter of if, but a matter of when we will see the rise in cases in Africa.


I expect restrictions to last until june 15 2020. The summer will calm down the epidemic in the nothern hemisphere and economics will force the situation.

In the southern hemisphere may to September will be the big outbreak.

In north it will come back. This time health care will have been expanded, and the world is forced to let people work and move more but a limited way.

Vaccine will arrive for risk groups in q2 2021 and in big numbers q3 finishing the outbreak.
 
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seahawk
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 8:36 am

We simply do not know. The virus could mutate and become less serious or even more deadly. The vaccine could come quickly or not. A drug can be found or not.
 
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T18
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:13 pm

olle wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Jalap wrote:

In north it will come back. This time health care will have been expanded, and the world is forced to let people work and move more but a limited way.

Vaccine will arrive for risk groups in q2 2021 and in big numbers q3 finishing the outbreak.


We of course are forgetting that there will be some Karens who will refuse to vaccinate their kids much like with Measles outbreaks recently. So I bet we will see smaller outbreaks for years in such communities where they elect to ignore common sense.
“Racing's important to men who do it well. When you're racing, it's life. Anything that happens before or after is just waiting.” ― Steve McQueen (Le Mans) 1971
 
yonahleung
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:27 pm

I suspect it will depend on whether we can prove that the universal use of masks will be an effective social distancing measure that can flatten the curve far enough to allow a new normal. If masks can be proven to be useful and there is a very effective drug against the Wuhan virus, maybe restrictions can be lifted by late May.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:55 pm

per the Dr Gottlieb report (I have previously provided links to this) phase 2 begins when wide spread quick results testing becomes available. Vulnerable population continues with fairly extreme social distancing. Those who show serum immunity can:

go back to work
treat patients with severe presentations of disease more safely than other health workers
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/30/21186822/ ... r-antibody

Close monitoring of those under 60 will enable them to go back to work

Administrative leave and sick leave, along with maximizing working from home and generous unemployment leave are required.

The Naval Base Kitsap is a natural experiment with this. Interestingly, Kitsap county reports the most cases of any county without deaths. There likely is a connection in their policies, the county compliance with social distancing, and medical preparedness.
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DLFREEBIRD
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:33 pm

Dutchy wrote:
DLFREEBIRD wrote:
Oct. for US
Aug for China except for HongKong
Dec for Europe


The US was behind the curve compared to Europe, so the end will probably be later as well.


LOL, I have no idea when this will end. I am just playing along.
 
StuckinCMHland
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:49 pm

Revelation wrote:
Why focus on something outside of your control like when the emergency will end and why not just work on better ways to stay active and healthy during the emergency?


1. Humans can think about more than just one thing at one time. At this point how many people on a.net need to learn what to do to keep us safe?
2. It's okay to think about positive and hopeful things as we are pumped full of bad news daily.
3. It is good for mental health, the more people focus on the negative the more miserable people become.
4. I would submit it is not outside of a person's control to look at what and when recovery will happen. Why not be positive about something for once?
5. At times the virus discussion is as morose as the Boeing Max thread. Even good news on these threads/issues is ignored or discounted
 
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Revelation
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:04 pm

StuckinCMHland wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Why focus on something outside of your control like when the emergency will end and why not just work on better ways to stay active and healthy during the emergency?


1. Humans can think about more than just one thing at one time. At this point how many people on a.net need to learn what to do to keep us safe?
2. It's okay to think about positive and hopeful things as we are pumped full of bad news daily.
3. It is good for mental health, the more people focus on the negative the more miserable people become.
4. I would submit it is not outside of a person's control to look at what and when recovery will happen. Why not be positive about something for once?
5. At times the virus discussion is as morose as the Boeing Max thread. Even good news on these threads/issues is ignored or discounted

Fair enough, if you think about speculating when this will end is a positive thing, I'm fine with it. Maybe I'm being pessimistic but I think such activity can set one up for future disappointment. I think of the end date as something out of my control, and what is in my control is the things I do with the time I now have on my hands.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Newark727
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:30 pm

StuckinCMHland wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Why focus on something outside of your control like when the emergency will end and why not just work on better ways to stay active and healthy during the emergency?


1. Humans can think about more than just one thing at one time. At this point how many people on a.net need to learn what to do to keep us safe?
2. It's okay to think about positive and hopeful things as we are pumped full of bad news daily.
3. It is good for mental health, the more people focus on the negative the more miserable people become.
4. I would submit it is not outside of a person's control to look at what and when recovery will happen. Why not be positive about something for once?
5. At times the virus discussion is as morose as the Boeing Max thread. Even good news on these threads/issues is ignored or discounted


Oh, okay. I thought this thread was for starting a betting pool.
 
889091
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:18 am

Newark727 wrote:
StuckinCMHland wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Why focus on something outside of your control like when the emergency will end and why not just work on better ways to stay active and healthy during the emergency?


1. Humans can think about more than just one thing at one time. At this point how many people on a.net need to learn what to do to keep us safe?
2. It's okay to think about positive and hopeful things as we are pumped full of bad news daily.
3. It is good for mental health, the more people focus on the negative the more miserable people become.
4. I would submit it is not outside of a person's control to look at what and when recovery will happen. Why not be positive about something for once?
5. At times the virus discussion is as morose as the Boeing Max thread. Even good news on these threads/issues is ignored or discounted


Oh, okay. I thought this thread was for starting a betting pool.


If that's the case, I'd say it'll be over before BER opens its doors! :stirthepot:
 
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seb146
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:27 am

Revelation wrote:
StuckinCMHland wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Why focus on something outside of your control like when the emergency will end and why not just work on better ways to stay active and healthy during the emergency?


1. Humans can think about more than just one thing at one time. At this point how many people on a.net need to learn what to do to keep us safe?
2. It's okay to think about positive and hopeful things as we are pumped full of bad news daily.
3. It is good for mental health, the more people focus on the negative the more miserable people become.
4. I would submit it is not outside of a person's control to look at what and when recovery will happen. Why not be positive about something for once?
5. At times the virus discussion is as morose as the Boeing Max thread. Even good news on these threads/issues is ignored or discounted

Fair enough, if you think about speculating when this will end is a positive thing, I'm fine with it. Maybe I'm being pessimistic but I think such activity can set one up for future disappointment. I think of the end date as something out of my control, and what is in my control is the things I do with the time I now have on my hands.


I think we want things to go back to how they were before. Things will never be the same again, but something close. Being able to sit in a restaurant, being able to window shop at the mall, having a job, fist bumps. I think we just want a sign that we can start being us again instead of the constant barrage of "keep your distance" and "only essential employees" and "only take out" and all that.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:48 am

Jalap wrote:
It won't fully end till there is a vaccine. Say early 2021.

Our freedom to move around could be released earlier if better treatments for the seriously ill become available. Let's hope this is way sooner than early 2021.

Now, considering that this virus wants to travel around, I predict that travel will be the last sector that'll see its restrictions released.

With the measures that are being taken now, I expect we'll see virus-free regions popping up. Measures can be lifted region per region, but travel to and from those regions will remain very restricted.


Not just treatments of the seriously ill. As testing becomes more available, people will know their status before becoming seriously ill. Treatments could keep people from ever becoming seriously ill but developing immunity. If early treatment could keep COVID-19 patients out of hospitals, there would be fewer people in ICU's or on ventilators.
 
StarAC17
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:17 am

889091 wrote:
The big assumption we are making here is that Covid19 will not mutate into something more sinister....

Doc, if you're reading this - is there any possibility of Covid19 combining with Ebola? If so, I think we've just about had it as the human race......


Doc can correct me if I am wrong but I don't think it's likely at all that Covid-19 and Ebola can combine into some superbug that kills everyone. Firstly both viruses have to get in contact with each other in the human body or in nature. Within the human body it is difficult because Covid-19 attacks the respiratory system and Ebola attacks your immune system and gastrointestinal track, also the viruses are completely different in nature. Also Covid19 can be transmitted by droplets in the air and Ebola cannot. Viruses tend to mutate to a virus that has the same symptoms but the body can't identify from ones a person are immune to, like the flu or the common cold.

In Nature there would have to be a creature where the same happened and it jumps to humans. While Ebola and covid19 are both said to come from bats it has not yet been confirmed that this is how Covid19 was transferred to humans. A Pangolin is theorized to have moved it from Bat to Human but at a wet market it could have come from anywhere.

Another thing to note is that Covid19 is pretty timid actually compared to SARS and MERS, it appears (and probably is) more deadly than influenza but we don't really know that because we don't have a true global number of the total amount of infections. SARS and MERS made basically everyone who got it sick and most of them required hospitalization thus they never got a huge foothold in nature and both puttered out. Ebola has never reached pandemic levels because of the same reasons. The only non airborne virus that has become a pandemic in recent history is HIV which can be present in someone's body for years without symptoms and can be passed on through sharing of needles or from sex.

With Covid19 like Influenza, there are mild and asymptomatic cases that can spread before symptoms show if they even do. 1 in 3 flu cases are asymptomatic, this could be as high as 50% and Doc has mentioned it could be even higher. What is a challenge is that there is a very long incubation period of 2-14 days (commonly 5) as opposed to 1-3 days with the flu. It is alleged to be spread by breathing and talking and not just from cough droplets, it has a higher lifespan on surfaces (several days) and no proven treatment for it yet.
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Revelation
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:36 pm

seb146 wrote:
I think we want things to go back to how they were before. Things will never be the same again, but something close. Being able to sit in a restaurant, being able to window shop at the mall, having a job, fist bumps. I think we just want a sign that we can start being us again instead of the constant barrage of "keep your distance" and "only essential employees" and "only take out" and all that.

As the old saying goes, "this too shall pass".

I'm finding it's a great time to pick up new skills (lots of reading and watching instructional videos) and getting to know myself better than before. Hopefully this means we emerge from this time as better people.

My grandparents lived through the depression, my parents (both sides) grew up as refugees in post-WWII Europe, my uncles generation fought in Vietnam. Life is always going to have some struggles in it. I'm thankful this kind of struggle is easier to deal with than those my uncles, parents and grandparents faced.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:15 pm

I think that around summer, we may find lower cases (though not necessarily less deaths). If immunity to the virus is lasting and effective, then those who have recovered can serve as the first folks that go back to work and live their lives as if nothing (though they may still be carriers).

I think that we may attempt to return to normal with the risk that, until a vaccine is out, we are vulnerable to infection. Right now, it's best to isolate if only to not overwhelm hospitals.

I somehow wish I were truly off work. I would have attempted to pick up a new skill/hobby. Baking, musical instrument, Photoshop...but I'm thankful I can still work remotely.
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
 
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casinterest
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:50 pm

I think there will be pressure to get more and more people back to work as more and more people in the Northeast/Northwest recover from it. The danger will be if we all go back to Normal too soon, then we will spread it quickly and cause more issues.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
lowwkjax
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:04 pm

Austria has announced the first steps today, next week a small number of certain shops are allowed to open, followed by all other stores roughly two weeks later. By mid May, the last parts (jobs that involve closer contact such as pedicure) should be able to open up again. Events are still canceled until at least the end of June though and wearing masks is a requirement for everybody going to a store or using public transportation, and there is only one customer allowed per 20m2 within a store (number of customers vs size of store) and the 6 feet distance rule still applies, and leaving your house for other reasons than work or to go a shop for you or someone in need won’t be allowed until at least the end of April now. These slow steps do require the numbers to stay this low though and are subject to immediate cancellation in case the numbers go up again. Schools btw will stay closed until at least mid May, further decisions regarding them as well as events will be made by the end of April.

Austria has also started testing random people, the details are yet to be announced but the first words from the chancellor today were that most of them are negative, so there’s no thing such as a herd immunity, according to the first impressions of the tests it looks more like maybe 1% of the population may have been infected without showing symptoms.

Traveling will not go up soon as various countries are still far from being able even think about reopening things and will therefore keep the borders closed, and until other countries get this under control, Austria won’t lift travel restrictions either, so traveling will per se be the last part to restart.

This just as an update and as an idea about how to slowly start it all up again, I think Austria is going a really great job here and is definitely leading Europe on this. Stay safe everyone.
 
cpd
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Re: End of Coronavirus Emergency Prediction Thread

Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:04 pm

Revelation wrote:
Why focus on something outside of your control like when the emergency will end and why not just work on better ways to stay active and healthy during the emergency?


Even staying active outdoors is being restricted too. Which is reasonable since we are seeing heaps of people out walking and running, all of them crowded together. The rules allow for exercise but not close together.

You are not even allowed to sit down alone on a bench outside to drink a coffee or eat some food, that’s a $1000 dollar fine (max $11K and six months prison).

I still ride a bicycle because I commute in it to work (my home internet is unreliable). So that’s my fitness taken care of but how I go with riding overseas, I’m thinking that’s not happening and I should probably be refunded my entry fees and accomodation.

I think the work from home must keep happening for a while longer and lockdown must keep going.

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