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AA7295
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Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:16 pm

I'm genuinely curious and can't seem to find the answer online, but who is lending all these nations the trillions and billions of dollars they have now borrowed to fund their stimulus and social security packages?

Is it China? Russia? Saudi Arabia? If not nation-states, what entities have trillions of dollars lying around? Also, how on earth are these countries supposed to pay these extreme amounts back?
 
PPVRA
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:35 pm

Their own central banks. They just print, then lend...

“Print” is just a figure of speech today. It’s all digital.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
AA7295
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:38 pm

PPVRA wrote:
Their own central banks. They just print, then lend...

“Print” is just a figure of speech today. It’s all digital.


So where do the central banks get the money from? Are you saying they are literally making it up?
 
petertenthije
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:40 pm

AA7295 wrote:
So where do the central banks get the money from? Are you saying they are literally making it up?

Pretty much, yeah. If you ever wondered what causes inflation: here’s your answer.
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Aaron747
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:43 pm

AA7295 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Their own central banks. They just print, then lend...

“Print” is just a figure of speech today. It’s all digital.


So where do the central banks get the money from? Are you saying they are literally making it up?


Yes - that’s how it has always been done. IOU in the form of public bonds.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:05 am

AA7295 wrote:
I'm genuinely curious and can't seem to find the answer online, but who is lending all these nations the trillions and billions of dollars they have now borrowed to fund their stimulus and social security packages?
Who is doing the lending? We are! You and me.


Governments are bailing us out with money that ultimately we will have to pay back in future taxes.

Although by a curious quirk of accountancy, the $5 I might get from Gov't today will become $10 that I have to pay back tomorrow (after everybody has taken their cut, including the guys at the top awarding themselves a fat bonus for mis-managing our hard earned money)

And somehow, vast amounts of this money will simply disappear into projects that amount to zilch. Except nobody could possibly see that coming..... :banghead:
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:51 am

The Fed’s balance sheet has something like $5 Trillion in USG debt. Future generations and today’s retirees will pay for this idiocy.
 
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Aesma
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:53 am

In the US, the treasury emits bonds, and anybody (well not anybody, you need to be an institution) can buy them. If there are no buyers, at the moment, the Fed is buying (but usually, there is no need).

Treasuries are still giving a (small) return so that's better than German or French bonds, meaning European and other pension funds might be buying that US paper.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:57 am

Aesma wrote:
In the US, the treasury emits bonds, and anybody (well not anybody, you need to be an institution) can buy them. If there are no buyers, at the moment, the Fed is buying (but usually, there is no need).

Treasuries are still giving a (small) return so that's better than German or French bonds, meaning European and other pension funds might be buying that US paper.


I believe private persons can also buy treasury bonds, although I presume they are a subset of what is available to the big guys.

Image

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:52 am

AA7295 wrote:
PPVRA wrote:
Their own central banks. They just print, then lend...

“Print” is just a figure of speech today. It’s all digital.


So where do the central banks get the money from? Are you saying they are literally making it up?


There you go: fiat money. It is all debt and it is all made-up. It is literally putting some numbers in the computer et voila you created money out of nothing. Central banks can do it, but also private banks. A fascinating system if you think about it, money can be created by a small portion - or actually everyone can, but if I do it, nobody believes me - of companies and that's why banks are the big buildings in every town.

Perhaps this crisis will lead to a new system and all debs are forgiven.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
dobilan
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:08 am

Somehow I think this crisis will serve as an excuse to reset all the crazy debts that the states have made in the last decades.
Happy scenario : Print money like crazy >> inflation >> purchasing power decreases >> average Joe&Jane will pay for this crisis >> hey, be grateful that you're alive >> everybody is happy and proud. Including the ones that mismanaged this crisis. I would give 80% chances for this scenario.
Grim scenario: Economy does not restart properly >> high unemployment >> rise of nationalism and authoritarism & fall of globalism >> big armed conflict or series of conflicts across the Globe >> debts and geopolitical balance are reset by the winners >> happy victors & vae victis. I hope chances for this scenario are less than 10%.
Still possible cummulative 10% chances for other unexpected outcomes: John Lennon style "big happy human family" showing solidarity left and right, miraculous rapid economic recovery fueled by new emerging technologies, crash of the social systems as we know them followed by some new Middle Age, whatever.
 
anrec80
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:00 am

AA7295 wrote:
So where do the central banks get the money from? Are you saying they are literally making it up?


Yes, exactly.
 
anrec80
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:02 am

Dieuwer wrote:
I believe private persons can also buy treasury bonds, although I presume they are a subset of what is available to the big guys.


Anyone can buy treasuries.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:53 am

dobilan wrote:
Happy scenario : Print money like crazy >> inflation >> purchasing power decreases >> average Joe&Jane will pay for this crisis >> hey, be grateful that you're alive >> everybody is happy and proud. Including the ones that mismanaged this crisis. I would give 80% chances for this scenario..


That is the default scenario for all public debt. But that doesn´t work since financial markets can absorb unlimited amount of cash. There is no chance to get inflation going if a) that extra money doesn´t get to a broad population and b) if people sit on their money rather than spending it.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Derico
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:25 am

Here we go again, people complaining about debt during the one time when it is actually warranted: war, pandemic, or recession.

Maybe instead of having rates at near 0% PLUS lowering taxes PLUS running deficits when economies were touted as "booming", central banks could have raised rates, or governments raised taxes for rainy day funds, or really cut spending by creating more efficient government first, then reducing actual spending second.

That's why I always said the economic booms of the last 20 years are all pretty much fake: simply based on money velocity, printing, and wealth redistribution UP (through tax cuts in good times, bailouts in bad). With all the money being given to the wealthy plus the low rates which inflate assets like stocks (and again sending money to the wealthier), PLUS inflation (yet another redistribution from the poor to the rich).... you wonder why the world is messed up. And a few people will even say I sound socialist, when it is they who support reverse socialism for the elite. am totally pro free-enterprise with fair rules for everyone and a basic safety net in national protection, civil protection, education, and health.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:52 pm

Derico wrote:
Here we go again, people complaining about debt during the one time when it is actually warranted: war, pandemic, or recession.

Maybe instead of having rates at near 0% PLUS lowering taxes PLUS running deficits when economies were touted as "booming", central banks could have raised rates, or governments raised taxes for rainy day funds, or really cut spending by creating more efficient government first, then reducing actual spending second.

That's why I always said the economic booms of the last 20 years are all pretty much fake: simply based on money velocity, printing, and wealth redistribution UP (through tax cuts in good times, bailouts in bad). With all the money being given to the wealthy plus the low rates which inflate assets like stocks (and again sending money to the wealthier), PLUS inflation (yet another redistribution from the poor to the rich).... you wonder why the world is messed up. And a few people will even say I sound socialist, when it is they who support reverse socialism for the elite. am totally pro free-enterprise with fair rules for everyone and a basic safety net in national protection, civil protection, education, and health.


And since 1920, the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation, has returned 6.5% compounded. That includes the Depression, 1987 and 2008 and the horrible 1970s... so I’m not buying it.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:19 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Derico wrote:
Here we go again, people complaining about debt during the one time when it is actually warranted: war, pandemic, or recession.

Maybe instead of having rates at near 0% PLUS lowering taxes PLUS running deficits when economies were touted as "booming", central banks could have raised rates, or governments raised taxes for rainy day funds, or really cut spending by creating more efficient government first, then reducing actual spending second.

That's why I always said the economic booms of the last 20 years are all pretty much fake: simply based on money velocity, printing, and wealth redistribution UP (through tax cuts in good times, bailouts in bad). With all the money being given to the wealthy plus the low rates which inflate assets like stocks (and again sending money to the wealthier), PLUS inflation (yet another redistribution from the poor to the rich).... you wonder why the world is messed up. And a few people will even say I sound socialist, when it is they who support reverse socialism for the elite. am totally pro free-enterprise with fair rules for everyone and a basic safety net in national protection, civil protection, education, and health.


And since 1920, the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation, has returned 6.5% compounded. That includes the Depression, 1987 and 2008 and the horrible 1970s... so I’m not buying it.


Standard line...we can go through all the FRED charts again on what has actually happened since the 1970s but you'll just feign ignorance, go through various non sequiturs or simply not reply like last time. Inconvenient data for the worldview and all that jazz.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:51 pm

So, you’re denying the actual record of the stock market AND the US economy? It was 6.44% after inflation since 1970. Here’s the St Louis FED’s GDP chart, I think it’s positive.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=eUmi#0
 
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Aaron747
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 3:56 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
So, you’re denying the actual record of the stock market AND the US economy? It was 6.44% after inflation since 1970. Here’s the St Louis FED’s GDP chart, I think it’s positive.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=eUmi#0


Nobody is denying those - the data is clear. But S&P and DJIA are not the whole story of middle class wages, net worth, and inflationary pressures Derico described above. If that story weren't a factor, the conditions of the early 1960s would still exist - where with a decent full time job, a guy with a wife and two kids could rent a modest home and they'd be basically okay on one income in all but the most expensive locales.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:23 pm

There are $$Trillions of dollars available through out the world. I am not current on the number, but a year or two ago it was $17 Trillion dollars.

The difference between GFC2008 and COVID19 is there was severe liquidity crunch in 2008, now it is not. Now, discretionary spending became ZERO overnight.

Just take US for example, Banks just hoarded QEs Obama government offered, so does TARP and other programs, now we are on QE5.

Most of the corporations are sitting on reasonable cash reserves.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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seb146
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:16 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
So, you’re denying the actual record of the stock market AND the US economy? It was 6.44% after inflation since 1970. Here’s the St Louis FED’s GDP chart, I think it’s positive.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=eUmi#0


Here is an interesting article on the buying power of those who are paid low wages

https://www.epi.org/publication/raising ... n-workers/

Their buying power has gone DOWN during those wonderful ups in the stock markets. Just because unemployment is "low" and stocks are high does not mean everyone does well. It just means those at the top do well. Just because Bezos and Walton can buy that fourth yacht does not mean Joe Truck Driver can afford rent.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:04 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
AA7295 wrote:
I'm genuinely curious and can't seem to find the answer online, but who is lending all these nations the trillions and billions of dollars they have now borrowed to fund their stimulus and social security packages?
Who is doing the lending? We are! You and me.


Governments are bailing us out with money that ultimately we will have to pay back in future taxes.

Although by a curious quirk of accountancy, the $5 I might get from Gov't today will become $10 that I have to pay back tomorrow (after everybody has taken their cut, including the guys at the top awarding themselves a fat bonus for mis-managing our hard earned money)

And somehow, vast amounts of this money will simply disappear into projects that amount to zilch. Except nobody could possibly see that coming..... :banghead:


Correct. In economics, deficit spend+inflation is thought of as a "tax" on holders of money. It would be the same as the government collecting a huge amount of taxes. It's not free money. It's money taken from us all.

2 trillion dollars in the US is an amount of money that could truly improve people's lives and save perhaps millions of lives. It is truly tragic to "lose" this amount of money. It is a very human tragedy. Millions of people worked their whole lives for that $ figures. Blood, sweat, and tears of real people. It's not just confetti that we should be happy about losing.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:50 am

LCDFlight wrote:
SheikhDjibouti wrote:
AA7295 wrote:
I'm genuinely curious and can't seem to find the answer online, but who is lending all these nations the trillions and billions of dollars they have now borrowed to fund their stimulus and social security packages?
Who is doing the lending? We are! You and me.


Governments are bailing us out with money that ultimately we will have to pay back in future taxes.

Although by a curious quirk of accountancy, the $5 I might get from Gov't today will become $10 that I have to pay back tomorrow (after everybody has taken their cut, including the guys at the top awarding themselves a fat bonus for mis-managing our hard earned money)

And somehow, vast amounts of this money will simply disappear into projects that amount to zilch. Except nobody could possibly see that coming..... :banghead:


Correct. In economics, deficit spend+inflation is thought of as a "tax" on holders of money. It would be the same as the government collecting a huge amount of taxes. It's not free money. It's money taken from us all..


yes and no. Yes, it is a tax of money, but usually its poorer people that have most of their "wealth" in the form of money, people with a good amount of money keep that in property of one sort or another and that is inflation proof.

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Sokes
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:43 pm

First of all there is fractional reserve banking.
"In practice, if the central bank imposes a required reserve ratio of 0.10, then each commercial bank is obliged to keep at least 10% of its total deposits as reserves, i.e. in the account it has at the central bank.

The process of money creation can be illustrated with the following example in the United States: Corporation A deposits $100,000 into Bank of America. Bank of America keeps $10,000 as reserves at the Federal Reserve. To make a profit, Bank of America loans the remaining $90,000 to the federal government. The government spends the $90,000 by buying something from corporation B. B deposits the $90,000 into its account with Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo keeps $9,000 as reserves at the Federal Reserve, and then lends the remaining $81,000 to the government. If this chain continues indefinitely then, in the end, an amount approximating $1,000,000 has gone into circulation and has therefore become part of the total money supply.[18] Furthermore, the Federal Reserve itself can and does lend money to banks as well as to the federal government.[19] There is currently neither an explanation on where the money comes from to pay the interest on all these loans, nor is there an explanation as to how the United States Department of the Treasury manages default on said loans (see Lehman Brothers). A negative supply of money is predicted to occur in the event that all loans are repaid at the same time."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_cre ... y_creation

While commercial banks create the money, they still have to pay interest to the central bank for whatever money they create. At least before 2008 central banks could regulate the amount of money by changing interest rates. As there is interest, money supply always has to increase. If we assume that nobody ever goes into losses, the yearly increase of money has to at least pay the interest to the central bank.

What if the commercial bank gets 10.000 $ deposit, but nobody asks for credit? Here we touch the problem of velocity of money. That's what happened in 2008. People were keen to pay back debt, but few wanted new credit. The amount of money would shrink. That may be possible if interest is at 0%, though it's not as customers of banks still have to pay interest. At any rate politics did not allow money to shrink. Central banks can buy securities from companies or the government to increase the money in circulation. In other words: The government or a company asks "Who wants to lend us money?" to which the central bank answers "us".

The European central banks bought a lot of securities after 2008. In normal times this is like printing money. However the money supply didn't increase exponential. The central bank simply made sure the money supply keeps increasing. IIRC the increase on a chart looked linear. Considering that interest rates were much lower than earlier it still smells like "printing money to finance government expenditure". I think that money was used to buy toxic Greek government debt from private investors. It was not like the German government could sell new debt to finance German infrastructure. Of course German commercial banks who held high interest Greek debt profited enormous. Privatize profits, socialize losses! And then there are stories from rich Greeks who sold their Greek government debt to buy flats in Berlin. But I don't know to what extend that happened.
There were inflation targets agreed upon when the Euro was introduced. Germany never reached these targets. If we had to stick to the agreement German trade surplus would have been much smaller. So we are not innocent in this.

Another rule is that increasing money causes inflation. That also is not always true. If interest is close to zero companies like to keep big cash on the bank account without actually ever using it. It's an insurance not to get into cash flow trouble. At 6% interest such a company policy would be economic suicide. Again it's a problem of money velocity. There is huge extra money which is just lying there, never intended to be used.

Then there are derivatives, papers to gamble. I don't know how far this is inflating money supply, but I have seen some balance sheets with many, many billions worth of derivatives. I leave it to somebody else to expand, as I don't understand.

Have you heard of people in poor countries living of one dollar a day? On a micro level it doesn't matter if one gets 30 $ a month or 1 $ daily. But I'm not sure if this is true on a macro level. People earned one $ and spend it the same day. That makes a money velocity of cash (in developed countries a rather insignificant amount, most money is on bank accounts) nearly thirty times as fast as digital salaries in the developed world. However cash in the developed world also circulates I guess every week or so. If you don't understand what I'm trying to say never mind. I myself don't understand the meaning. It's just something I've observed.

Let's say it's complicated. I myself don't understand money supply fully. But it seems I'm in good company:
"The fractional reserve theory where the money supply is limited by the money multiplier has come under increased criticism since the financial crisis of 2007–2008. It has been observed that the bank reserves are not a limiting factor because the central banks supply more reserves than necessary[20] and because banks have been able to build up additional reserves when they were needed.[21] Many economists and bankers now realize that the amount of money in circulation is limited only by the demand for loans, not by reserve requirements."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_cre ... y_of_money
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Sokes
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Re: Who Is Lending All These Countries The Trillions & Billions of Dollars?

Fri Apr 10, 2020 5:12 am

Sokes wrote:
While commercial banks create the money, they still have to pay interest to the central bank for whatever money they create. At least before 2008 central banks could regulate the amount of money by changing interest rates.

Sorry, but this statement is wrong.
Banks will have to pay interest to whoever deposits money with them and get interest from whoever takes a credit. The spread minus the administrative cost is profit which increases the bank's equity.
If a customer fails to pay back the credit the loss reduces the equity of the bank.

If the reserve ratio is 0,1 there is indeed a limit to how much money banks can create through fractional reserve banking. But these times are gone. Reserve ratio today is 0% for US, England and some others. It is 1% for EU.

Limit to credit creation today is the equity requirements banks have.
"The capital ratio is the percentage of a bank's capital to its risk-weighted assets. Weights are defined by risk-sensitivity ratios whose calculation is dictated under the relevant Accord. Basel II requires that the total capital ratio must be no lower than 8%."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_requirement
For government securities no equity is required. Otherwise banks have to consider the infallible rating agencies.

Personally I believe that the amount of money has to grow at least for the amount of interest. As long as business is good there will be demand for new credits and therefore an increase in the amount of money. In 2008 this got disturbed. The central banks started buying government bonds. This made sure that money amount increased. In Europe mostly government bonds from e.g. Greek were bought. They would have been worthless, as Greece wasn't able to get it's credit renewed and serve the interest payment. Not only did it increase the amount of money. It also prevented that the "Deutsche Bank" lost it's equity.
That is why Roosevelt separated commercial banking from investment banking.
The European central bank is not allowed to buy government bonds. Also each European country is responsible for its own debt.The EZB buying Greek government debt was a plain violation of law.

I doubt our monetary system. On the other side: When was the world richer than today?
As I said: It's complicated and I myself don't understand it properly.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?

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