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889091
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How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:20 am

Covid19 has basically set the global economy back x number of years and has left many people across the globe unemployed.

Can the world afford another outbreak in the near future? It is not a matter of if, but a matter of when.

As is the nature of the beast - not knowing how quickly it spreads, how it is being transmitted, etc, a lockdown is normally the safest option, in terms of flattening the initial curve and not overwhelming the hospitals. Can we afford another global lockdown say, within the next 5 years?

Lessons we should learn from Covid19:
1. Don't put your eggs in one basket in terms of manufacturing
2. Retain some local production of PPE

Your thoughts?
Last edited by 889091 on Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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BasilFawlty
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:50 am

889091 wrote:
Lessons we should learn from Covid19:

Stop global travelling! This pandemic wouldn't have happened if people travelled only within their own regions. From now on here's how it should be:
People from Europe can only travel within Europe, people from Asia can only travel within Asia, people from North America can only travel within North America, etc etc etc. Exceptions can be made for work related travel and family visits, but with very strict quarantine rules when such a person arrives at both the destination and origin. Travelling all over the world for vacation purposes should be banned for ever. If such measures would have been in place already the Covid19 outbreak would have stayed within Asia, at least for a very long time.
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Aaron747
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:07 am

Offload the science deniers from the train of society at the next stop. They should live off-grid and be self sufficient if they don’t want to interface with technology and society.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
continental004
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:46 am

BasilFawlty wrote:
889091 wrote:
Lessons we should learn from Covid19:

Stop global travelling! This pandemic wouldn't have happened if people travelled only within their own regions. From now on here's how it should be:
People from Europe can only travel within Europe, people from Asia can only travel within Asia, people from North America can only travel within North America, etc etc etc. Exceptions can be made for work related travel and family visits, but with very strict quarantine rules when such a person arrives at both the destination and origin. Travelling all over the world for vacation purposes should be banned for ever. If such measures would have been in place already the Covid19 outbreak would have stayed within Asia, at least for a very long time.


Do you know what website this is?
 
rfields5421
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:54 am

889091 wrote:
Covid19 has basically set the global economy back x number of years and has left many people across the globe unemployed.


The world has moderately good plans and practices in place for most virus outbreaks. The world has done a good job with Ebola.

The problem is that truly 'handling' an outbreak requires immediate quarantine of the origin area.

That alone is going to disrupt that global economy. And basically create a large long lasting hole in the economy of that country/ region.

When that level of containment is attempted, the local population, and government are going to resist. People around the world are going to call quarantine 'racist' and 'reactionary' and a lot of other stupid names.

The one thing which makes this virus unusual is that it is new, without a vaccine, a reliable test to identify the infected, spreaders of the virus.

Most of the ones we've had in the past several decades are outgrowths of flu. Even if we do not have a specific vaccine, the medical people know how to develop one, and modify existing testing to identify it.

Let's say we develop a proactive protocol for containing an infection. To be truly effective it needs to be part of the standard travel process. Most of my travel today is my pickup pulling my travel trailer home across the United States.

Let me ask those of you who travel internationally, will you be willing to be medically screened before boarding any aircraft for an international flight, maybe not in places like Europe, but certainly transoceanic flights. To be denied boarding if you show symptoms of ANY possibly infections condition? Any the costs of such screening will be used to increase the costs of your ticket.

To have that holiday you saved three years for cancelled because your head is stuffy, and you have a slight fever when you go to board that flight from rainy cold wherever to the warmth of the Canaries of....?

Quicker quarantines will happen in the future. And many are going to scream and yell about 'too drastic action' and the 'cost to the economy'.

Just be thankful that this one appears to follow the model of no reoccurring infections and future resistance.

Think about the implications of COVID-19, if a person could be reinfected and sick again two weeks after being 'cured'.
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Francoflier
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:31 am

Maybe start by not destroying the organisation that is in charge of handling large scale public health issues...

(...to fund a tax cut for the rich).

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... dog-report

The part where they removed the CDC envoy in China in charge of early detection of just such events is particularly ironic.
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par13del
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:32 am

If the world reopens BEFORE a cure or vaccine is found it will prove that quarantine and lock downs are effective tools to fight a pandemic.

All the politicians have to do now is to pass the necessary laws while the issue is ongoing so that the next time an outbreak happens the airlines and other business houses will not put pressure on governments to keep transportation links open to the country in question.

In posts virus studies, the question will have to be asked, if the initial outbreak was in a country not named China, would the world governments have hesitated to totally cut off links versus reduce schedules allowing the virus to spread?
 
ltbewr
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:42 am

There is a need to have strong international and open systems of monitoring of hot spots where infectious diseases start. WHO had major failures, likely in part to not insult China.
All countries need to have robust policies and structures to monitor, have early warnings and take timely action to keep out or reduce the risks of infectious diseases.
Leadership of countries must respect scientists and medical experts, not ignore warnings. be competent .
Sound healthcare structures and systems so people can get care they need that is affordable.
 
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einsteinboricua
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:48 am

rfields5421 wrote:
The world has done a good job with Ebola.

Comparing Covid to Ebola is an apples to orange comparison. Ebola is a much deadlier virus and can only be transmitted through contact with fluids. Covid has flu-like characteristics in that it can be transmitted by particles (sneezing, coughing), and is suspected of being briefly airborne. Therefore, it was easier to contain an Ebola outbreak since it's harder for the virus to spread (at least, in a well-advanced economy with biological controls) than it is to contain Covid.

par13del wrote:
In posts virus studies, the question will have to be asked, if the initial outbreak was in a country not named China, would the world governments have hesitated to totally cut off links versus reduce schedules allowing the virus to spread?

MERS, H1N1, and Ebola are examples of virus activity with an origin other than China. The only virus where cutting off all links would have made a difference is H1N1. MERS showed to not be as contagious as SARS was (Saudi Arabia experienced the bulk of it) and Ebola requires contact with fluids (blood, mucus, etc).

The problem is that, unless you immediately block off ALL access from every country, you will get an infection no matter what. Those Chinese citizens that couldn't get a direct flight from China to the US could have flown down to Hong Kong (or another country) and taken a flight. That's why when Trump announced no flights from EU countries, it was pointless: nothing stopped them from flying to Canada or Mexico, and then flying into the US. No entry of EU nationals was also pointless if they kept allowing South Korean and Japanese folks flying into the country (which at the time were more hard hit).

Reduced schedules ensures only essential business travel happens; cutting off links is pointless if other means of entry remain open.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:13 am

At the slightest outbreak, all borders should be closed in the US. You can leave, but you can't come back.
 
Antony44
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:21 am

I am in favor of introducing an emergency in the country and taking tough measures regarding flights and any movements until the pandemic begins to subside.
 
Sokes
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:42 am

par13del wrote:
In posts virus studies, the question will have to be asked, if the initial outbreak was in a country not named China, would the world governments have hesitated to totally cut off links versus reduce schedules allowing the virus to spread?

Interesting question.

We are in a sense lucky. The virus hit us badly prepared, but it is not a very deadly one. Imagine it had a mortality rate of 20% and at the same time a period in which carriers are asymptomatic, but can infect others. We got a warning, and we should be grateful for it.

I guess once this is over the world will keep a lot of Oxygen bottles, ICU beds and other equipment. I also assume more money will be spent for virology. More scientists and related infrastructure means a faster reaction time.

I assume for future cruise ships bigger will not be better.
"Symphony of the Seas measures 361.011 metres (1,184 ft 5.0 in) in length and has a gross tonnage of 228,081 across 18 decks.[2] She is able to accommodate 5,518 passengers at double occupancy up to a maximum capacity of 6,680 passengers, as well as a 2,200-person crew.[6] There are 16 decks for guest use, 22 restaurants, 4 pools and 2,759 cabins.[13]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symphony_of_the_Seas

And of course borders will be closed faster. The world keeps spinning even if the economy gets interrupted for two weeks. I believe it is the duty of politicians to travel to affected areas and speak with doctors to decide if border closures are required. Or we may just listen to what the Chinese Communist Party thinks about it.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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par13del
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:34 pm

Hopefully post virus studies will also thrash out the doctors and experts who the politicians have relied on, as much as we like to blame politicians, the experts have not had their shining moment in providing advise and solutions to be implemented.
When we look at the number of medical professional who have caught and died from the virus we have to wonder if the experts do not know how to protect the providers of care, what hope is there for the general population? The pandemic will also see the rise of the "bush doctors" and their associated remedies.
Now the experts will surely get the politicians to pass all manner of laws to control said folks, but memories are not short, and folks will remember who aided them during the dark times.
 
rfields5421
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:41 pm

einsteinboricua wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:
The world has done a good job with Ebola.

Comparing Covid to Ebola is an apples to orange comparison. Ebola is a much deadlier virus and can only be transmitted through contact with fluids. Covid has flu-like characteristics in that it can be transmitted by particles (sneezing, coughing), and is suspected of being briefly airborne. Therefore, it was easier to contain an Ebola outbreak since it's harder for the virus to spread (at least, in a well-advanced economy with biological controls) than it is to contain Covid.


I was referring to the containment measures instituted very quickly after Ebola was determined to be spreading.

Only that level of containment can stop any disease from spreading. Yes, COVID-19 and versions of the flu spread quickly. Frankly in my opinion, quarantine and such for easily transmitted diseases needs to be swifter, stronger and more strictly enforced than with blood pathogen diseases.

But the world wide presumption seems to be that such economic consequences are too great and too inconvenient and too 'bad for business' .

A few thousand, tens of thousands, or even millions of deaths are a small price to pay to avoid interrupting business, even the tourism business.
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DocLightning
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:04 am

1) We need better surveillance. We need to be able to detect these things early and identify them.

2) We need to pour research into vaccines for each family of viruses. We should be able to get most vaccines through Phase 2b clinical trials before an outbreak. Here are the viruses that have me concerned:

a) More coronaviruses. This is the third (perhaps the 4th[1]) severe respiratory coronavirus to have broken out in modern history. Once we can figure out how to make a vaccine against this one, we should begin testing vaccines against others to ensure that they are safe so that we can quickly deploy one against the next pandemic coronavirus.

b) Influenza in general. Our yearly flu shots are lousy and we need a better vaccine that will cover all serotypes. Work is ongoing.

c) Enteroviruses. Fortunately, we do know how to make vaccines against enteroviruses (poliovirus is an enterovirus).

d) Marburg, which could be used as a biological weapon. It's very similar to Ebolavirus, but we need to start working on a vaccine now so that when one of these weapons is utilized, we can deploy it quickly.

e) Adenoviruses. We do have vaccines against these for military use. Fortunately, since adenovirus is a DNA virus, mutation is much slower.

f) Rhinoviruses. Wait, what? The most common cause of the common cold? Yes, that's how this particular virus acts right now. Human rhinoviruses are enteroviruses, so it should be possible to vaccinate for them, but a Rhinovirus C passed from humans to a group of chimpanzees decimated the chimpanzee population because chimps have a subtle difference in a receptor for the virus from humans. They developed severe respiratory distress and many died.

The idea is that when the next severe acute respiratory coronavirus strikes (and I bet anyone here TWO whole rolls of toilet paper that this will happen within 20 years), we know how to make a vaccine against it and can start immediately, with enough to cover a significant portion of the world's population within six months.

(1)https://jvi.asm.org/content/jvi/79/3/1595.full.pdf
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kalvado
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:00 am

Bureaucracy. There is one single CDC document responsible for US runaway.
Regulatory agencies - FDA, CDC, and a few others must be brought to their senses.
Charging some paper pushers with domestic terrorism and pushing for capital punishment may be a good start.
Changing education system from the one where student is a paying customer to something challenge based is another thing.
Epidemic is not an isolated problem, it is part of bigger set of failures where people are unwilling and unable to respond to challenge in an overregulating environment.
 
rfields5421
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:40 pm

DocLightning wrote:
TWO


Wow, you are serious!!

Very good description of the issues.

Thank you for some sanity.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:53 pm

kalvado wrote:
Bureaucracy. There is one single CDC document responsible for US runaway.
Regulatory agencies - FDA, CDC, and a few others must be brought to their senses.
Charging some paper pushers with domestic terrorism and pushing for capital punishment may be a good start.
Changing education system from the one where student is a paying customer to something challenge based is another thing.
Epidemic is not an isolated problem, it is part of bigger set of failures where people are unwilling and unable to respond to challenge in an overregulating environment.


Explain to me where regulatory agencies are to blame here. Regulations have been so lax lately that utter nonsense is getting approved (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine FDA approval for COVID-19 in the absence of any good evidence that it works).
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"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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Revelation
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 1:20 am

Develop relatively cheap ventilators that are cheap enough to stockpile and are relatively easy to operate.

Thirteen years ago, a group of U.S. public health officials came up with a plan to address what they regarded as one of the medical system’s crucial vulnerabilities: a shortage of ventilators.

The breathing-assistance machines tended to be bulky, expensive and limited in number. The plan was to build a large fleet of inexpensive portable devices to deploy in a flu pandemic or another crisis.

Money was budgeted. A federal contract was signed. Work got underway.

And then things suddenly veered off course. A multibillion-dollar maker of medical devices bought the small California company that had been hired to design the new machines. The project ultimately produced zero ventilators.

Ref: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/busi ... rtage.html

TL;DR: F&cked over by corporate greed, again.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:14 am

Revelation wrote:
Develop relatively cheap ventilators that are cheap enough to stockpile and are relatively easy to operate.


There is no need to develop cheap ones. Wait couple of years, all these will show up on ebay. I am also hoping to get N95s at 1c/each.

Preparedness is either a Hollywood myth or exists only on paper. I am pinning my hopes on how quickly authorities can wing it when it shows up.

From SARS to MERS 10 years. From MERS to COVID19 - 7 years.
All posts are just opinions.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:40 am

Revelation wrote:
Develop relatively cheap ventilators that are cheap enough to stockpile and are relatively easy to operate.


If it's a respiratory coronavirus, then maybe ventilators will help. If it's some godawful hemorrhagic gastroenteritis, that won't work.

What we need is to go through all the viruses with pandemic potential and start getting vaccines together. An ounce of prevention...
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
kalvado
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:45 am

DocLightning wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Bureaucracy. There is one single CDC document responsible for US runaway.
Regulatory agencies - FDA, CDC, and a few others must be brought to their senses.
Charging some paper pushers with domestic terrorism and pushing for capital punishment may be a good start.
Changing education system from the one where student is a paying customer to something challenge based is another thing.
Epidemic is not an isolated problem, it is part of bigger set of failures where people are unwilling and unable to respond to challenge in an overregulating environment.


Explain to me where regulatory agencies are to blame here. Regulations have been so lax lately that utter nonsense is getting approved (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine FDA approval for COVID-19 in the absence of any good evidence that it works).

This is the HAN published on February 1st: https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/HAN00427.asp
This document effectively banned testing of community transmission, and that led to an epidemic runaway.
CDC promised - but didn't do any - piggy-back testing on flu surveillance network with already collected samples; FDA explicitly banned Washington state lab from doing that.

I believe those two actions are capital punishment worthy. as infection spead could be at least partially intercepted.

I remember it very vividly as I had a pretty bad cold (likely flu B as I understand it now, but who knows) in the first week of February - after a trip to San Francisco and participating in a big event with international attendance and passing through major hubs on connection. I was flirting with the idea of going to a doctor and asking for coronavirus test - but found a CDC flyer, based on that HAN, saying only those who traveled to Wuhan and their first contact (in case of traveler's health problems) should be tested. Made me raise eyebrows...

Regulations may be lax - but idiotic and miss really important points as a result of bureaucratic approach. Theranos may be another recent example, if you think about it.
 
kalvado
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:47 am

DocLightning wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Develop relatively cheap ventilators that are cheap enough to stockpile and are relatively easy to operate.


If it's a respiratory coronavirus, then maybe ventilators will help. If it's some godawful hemorrhagic gastroenteritis, that won't work.

What we need is to go through all the viruses with pandemic potential and start getting vaccines together. An ounce of prevention...

And once all those vaccines are ready, MRSA or MDR-TB would act up, huh.
 
cpd
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:47 am

889091 wrote:
Covid19 has basically set the global economy back x number of years and has left many people across the globe unemployed.

Can the world afford another outbreak in the near future? It is not a matter of if, but a matter of when.

As is the nature of the beast - not knowing how quickly it spreads, how it is being transmitted, etc, a lockdown is normally the safest option, in terms of flattening the initial curve and not overwhelming the hospitals. Can we afford another global lockdown say, within the next 5 years?

Lessons we should learn from Covid19:
1. Don't put your eggs in one basket in terms of manufacturing
2. Retain some local production of PPE

Your thoughts?


Better screening for sick people trying to travel for one, people themselves had got to be more aware.

DocLightning wrote:
What we need is to go through all the viruses with pandemic potential and start getting vaccines together. An ounce of prevention...


Quite right, and forget about the cost of doing so. This is one of those things where we've got to be ahead of this regardless of initial cost. The cost of having these vaccines developed would have been small compared to the cost of so many people in hospital, dead, losing their jobs, businesses in trouble, etc.
 
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Antaras
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:41 am

As East Asian coutries had learned a lot from the SARS, most of them (VN, KR, JP, TW, HK, SG,..) handled this pandemic well.
Except China Mainland :roll:
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tommy1808
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:53 am

kalvado wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Bureaucracy. There is one single CDC document responsible for US runaway.
Regulatory agencies - FDA, CDC, and a few others must be brought to their senses.
Charging some paper pushers with domestic terrorism and pushing for capital punishment may be a good start.
Changing education system from the one where student is a paying customer to something challenge based is another thing.
Epidemic is not an isolated problem, it is part of bigger set of failures where people are unwilling and unable to respond to challenge in an overregulating environment.


Explain to me where regulatory agencies are to blame here. Regulations have been so lax lately that utter nonsense is getting approved (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine FDA approval for COVID-19 in the absence of any good evidence that it works).

This is the HAN published on February 1st: https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/HAN00427.asp
This document effectively banned testing of community transmission, and that led to an epidemic runaway.
CDC promised - but didn't do any - piggy-back testing on flu surveillance network with already collected samples; FDA explicitly banned Washington state lab from doing that.

I believe those two actions are capital punishment worthy. as infection spead could be at least partially intercepted.


Well, that is what you'd expect with an admin caring more about keeping reported numbers low instead of keeping the number of cases low.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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Revelation
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:35 am

Antaras wrote:
As East Asian coutries had learned a lot from the SARS, most of them (VN, KR, JP, TW, HK, SG,..) handled this pandemic well.
Except China Mainland :roll:

Yep, the Chinese wet markets are open again so they can celebrate their victory over coronavirus. Bravo!
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
889091
Topic Author
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:07 pm

Revelation wrote:
Antaras wrote:
As East Asian coutries had learned a lot from the SARS, most of them (VN, KR, JP, TW, HK, SG,..) handled this pandemic well.
Except China Mainland :roll:

Yep, the Chinese wet markets are open again so they can celebrate their victory over coronavirus. Bravo!


Indonesia has wet markets too, but we've never had a virus outbreak that originated from Indonesia. So, what makes the wet markets in China so unique that we've had SARS and SARS-COV2 (suspected but unconfirmed as of yet) come from there?
 
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BasilFawlty
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 1:32 pm

As long as China doesn't close those wet markets all travelling to and from China should be banned.
'Every year donkeys and mules kill more people than plane crashes'
 
kalvado
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 1:57 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
DocLightning wrote:

Explain to me where regulatory agencies are to blame here. Regulations have been so lax lately that utter nonsense is getting approved (chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine FDA approval for COVID-19 in the absence of any good evidence that it works).

This is the HAN published on February 1st: https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/HAN00427.asp
This document effectively banned testing of community transmission, and that led to an epidemic runaway.
CDC promised - but didn't do any - piggy-back testing on flu surveillance network with already collected samples; FDA explicitly banned Washington state lab from doing that.

I believe those two actions are capital punishment worthy. as infection spead could be at least partially intercepted.


Well, that is what you'd expect with an admin caring more about keeping reported numbers low instead of keeping the number of cases low.

Best regards
Thomas

While it certainly fashionable to blame Trump for everything, I am talking about much longer trend.
If you will, it is about expecting Hollywood-style happy end, no matter what. I would say the shift happened somewhere between late 60s (Nixon had a backup "Disaster" speech in case of Apollo-11 failure) and early 80s (Challenger being pushed to launch despite objections, with management having a very rosy view on SHuttle reliability). 737MAX is the other recent example. and one has to have a very solid political agenda to find links to the current administration.
A lot of COVID story is about "we have much better hygiene", "we have better care" - to "but China has it worse than they say!!!111" as the last resort.
Welcome to the real world, happy end not assured.
 
StarAC17
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sat Apr 11, 2020 11:13 pm

BasilFawlty wrote:
889091 wrote:
Lessons we should learn from Covid19:

Stop global travelling! This pandemic wouldn't have happened if people travelled only within their own regions. From now on here's how it should be:
People from Europe can only travel within Europe, people from Asia can only travel within Asia, people from North America can only travel within North America, etc etc etc. Exceptions can be made for work related travel and family visits, but with very strict quarantine rules when such a person arrives at both the destination and origin. Travelling all over the world for vacation purposes should be banned for ever. If such measures would have been in place already the Covid19 outbreak would have stayed within Asia, at least for a very long time.


Good luck with that. Tourism is big business and those who travel actually learn things about the world that make them smarter and cultures interacting is a great opportunity for innovation and while we still have a long way to go regarding racism and xenophobia, being able to travel is a good antidote to that. Global travel has always existed even before technology making it faster and easier, it happens through the black plague, the Spanish flu and enforcement of this would not happen.

Also guess the one person with permission to travel could still spread a future pandemic.

889091 wrote:
Covid19 has basically set the global economy back x number of years and has left many people across the globe unemployed.

Can the world afford another outbreak in the near future? It is not a matter of if, but a matter of when.

As is the nature of the beast - not knowing how quickly it spreads, how it is being transmitted, etc, a lockdown is normally the safest option, in terms of flattening the initial curve and not overwhelming the hospitals. Can we afford another global lockdown say, within the next 5 years?

Lessons we should learn from Covid19:
1. Don't put your eggs in one basket in terms of manufacturing
2. Retain some local production of PPE

Your thoughts?


Yes and Yes.

Contract tracing needs to be enacted and have oversight so it isn't abused by government for purposes that it isn't intended for. The successes South Korea and Taiwan without locking down is something we should learn from.

If tested positive for a virus that is new you have to tell public health where you have been an who you have contacted so the potential spread can be tracked. Where western nations worry is that lets say I were diagnosed with Covid 19, me fear would be disclosing I bought drugs to public health official could land me in jail.

Since a pandemic isn't a law enforcement issue and a public health one. The information cannot be turned over to law enforcement for any reason and if it is the evidence gathered is thrown out. In a similar manner that if a cop failed to get a warrant, the evidence is thrown out of the case even if the defendant did it.

Also we need an economic pause button. We freeze all debt collection, bill payments, interest compounding, close all stock markets, perhaps all assets are frozen and the government implements a UBI for everyone to cover the essentials such as food and medicine. This allows a proper lockdown where people do not have to worry about paying rent for their shop or restaurant when the businesses can't generate revenue. Since all the markets and financial systems are man made this should be rather easy to implement a pause button.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
KFTG
Posts: 858
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:34 am

Wait, I thought it was a "hoax"?
I also heard it was "just a flu".
Last edited by KFTG on Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
seb146
Posts: 22522
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:46 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
seat64k wrote:

"Wet market" just means perishable goods are sold. So your local farmers market selling fresh veggies on a Saturday morning is a wet market. So there's no argument for closing wet markets.


Thank you for debunking the fearmongering about "Wet" markets. No one who is campaigning against them knows what they are, let alone have visited one. All "wet" means is perishable food sold as opposed to "dry" markets which would sell clothing, goods etc. I would estimate at least 50% of the planet gets their food from a "wet" market, as opposed to a supermarket with refrigerated frozen stock stored for days on end. I'm sure a lot of Western supermarket chains like Walmart would love to ban wet markets in China and be able to get rid of a competitor in such a huge market however.

It's all a bit of a moot point now because latest information is that the virus didn't originate from any "wet" market, with the first confirmed case having no link to the Wuhan market:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext


Reading all the responses about "wet" markets and I immediately thought of Pike Street Market in Seattle. The fish throwing place.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
StarAC17
Posts: 3835
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:54 am

Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:56 am

par13del wrote:
If the world reopens BEFORE a cure or vaccine is found it will prove that quarantine and lock downs are effective tools to fight a pandemic.

All the politicians have to do now is to pass the necessary laws while the issue is ongoing so that the next time an outbreak happens the airlines and other business houses will not put pressure on governments to keep transportation links open to the country in question.

In posts virus studies, the question will have to be asked, if the initial outbreak was in a country not named China, would the world governments have hesitated to totally cut off links versus reduce schedules allowing the virus to spread?


We need to cut our dependence on China off, that it one thing Donald Trump is right about.

Lockdown measures will have to be relaxed at some point before the norther summer, perhaps not all at once but in phases, probably no sports or festivals. I do believe that this has a seasonal element to it and will taper off as the weather gets warmer in the northern hemisphere but will come back in the fall and we have to be ready for that. Covid-19 has not seemed to have taken a stronghold in tropical climates or the southern hemisphere just leaving summer. This is typical of respiratory viruses. Also this is not some super-virus it is just new to us.

I think much of the western population will have tolerance for lockdown measures until at the latest the end of June. If we are still in the same spot 2 months from now expect a revolt from the people. I actually see what seems to be a lot of stability in many places. The west coast of North America seems to have really got this under control
Furthermore the governments will have a whole lot of additional problems with mental health, suicides, domestic violence etc. and this experiment has never been tried on this scale ever in history.

889091 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Antaras wrote:
As East Asian coutries had learned a lot from the SARS, most of them (VN, KR, JP, TW, HK, SG,..) handled this pandemic well.
Except China Mainland :roll:

Yep, the Chinese wet markets are open again so they can celebrate their victory over coronavirus. Bravo!


Indonesia has wet markets too, but we've never had a virus outbreak that originated from Indonesia. So, what makes the wet markets in China so unique that we've had SARS and SARS-COV2 (suspected but unconfirmed as of yet) come from there?


Animals are stacked in cages one on top of the other letting their mucus, blood, waste fluids mix. Viruses cross contaminate and mutate and eventually some can pass to humans. Also a lot of these animals don't live in environments that humans often venture into but they are brought to wet markets like in Wuhan. We would never actually encounter them like we would a squirrel or a raccoon.

It is a lesson the more we do mess with natural ecosystems the more odds that this will happen again. The more wildlife we destroy the higher chance a virus comes in contact with us from an animal.
Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
 
KFTG
Posts: 858
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:39 am

seb146 wrote:
Reading all the responses about "wet" markets and I immediately thought of Pike Street Market in Seattle. The fish throwing place.

This may come as a surprise to you, but fish do not have lungs and thus cannot transmit any respiratory disease.
And I reckon that Pike Street is *slightly more* (sarcasm) regulated than the Wuhan wet markets.
Nice try though!
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 404
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:04 pm

seb146 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
seat64k wrote:

"Wet market" just means perishable goods are sold. So your local farmers market selling fresh veggies on a Saturday morning is a wet market. So there's no argument for closing wet markets.


Thank you for debunking the fearmongering about "Wet" markets. No one who is campaigning against them knows what they are, let alone have visited one. All "wet" means is perishable food sold as opposed to "dry" markets which would sell clothing, goods etc. I would estimate at least 50% of the planet gets their food from a "wet" market, as opposed to a supermarket with refrigerated frozen stock stored for days on end. I'm sure a lot of Western supermarket chains like Walmart would love to ban wet markets in China and be able to get rid of a competitor in such a huge market however.

It's all a bit of a moot point now because latest information is that the virus didn't originate from any "wet" market, with the first confirmed case having no link to the Wuhan market:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext


Reading all the responses about "wet" markets and I immediately thought of Pike Street Market in Seattle. The fish throwing place.


Fish can contain microbial illnesses if handled incorrectly.

But thanks for reposting that because seat46k's and my comments explaining what a "wet" market really is seem to have been deleted? I'm wondering why?
 
User avatar
seb146
Posts: 22522
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:42 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:

Thank you for debunking the fearmongering about "Wet" markets. No one who is campaigning against them knows what they are, let alone have visited one. All "wet" means is perishable food sold as opposed to "dry" markets which would sell clothing, goods etc. I would estimate at least 50% of the planet gets their food from a "wet" market, as opposed to a supermarket with refrigerated frozen stock stored for days on end. I'm sure a lot of Western supermarket chains like Walmart would love to ban wet markets in China and be able to get rid of a competitor in such a huge market however.

It's all a bit of a moot point now because latest information is that the virus didn't originate from any "wet" market, with the first confirmed case having no link to the Wuhan market:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext


Reading all the responses about "wet" markets and I immediately thought of Pike Street Market in Seattle. The fish throwing place.


Fish can contain microbial illnesses if handled incorrectly.

But thanks for reposting that because seat46k's and my comments explaining what a "wet" market really is seem to have been deleted? I'm wondering why?


They sell more than fish there. They also sell shellfish which can contain toxins that can sicken people. Domoic acid, caused by algae, causes severe seizures and even death in seals and sea lions. Humans can also have severe reactions. They also sell various fruits and uncured meats. True, they do not butcher the meat right there on the spot, but it is very easy for things like salmonella and e. coli to be spread in these markets. We already know people die from e. coli.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
seat64k
Posts: 611
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 11:48 pm

Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:32 pm

Sokes wrote:
The NYtimes article about the government order for cheap ventilators fits well in this cacophony of disinformation.
Why did the government agree to cancel the contract? If prototypes were ready and considered fit for the purpose, why are they not manufactured now?
Why does the government demand that a ventilator for pandemics has to fit babies? Were there other unnecessary demands? I guess there are reasons why standard ventilators cost more than triple. Here an example for an emergency devise:
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/aut ... 829339.cms
Maybe it will work, maybe not. But for pandemics a 100$ device with three months life expectancy that can be used in (I just make up a number) 20% cases is great.


I can't comment on much of this - I'm struggling enough to make sense of the deluge of information. But I want to point out something. Ventilatiors *aid* the patient in breathing. As such, they need to push and pull air in rhythm with the patient's breathing, and they need to adjust the pressure to complement the patient's air intake to achieve the right amount of air. Too little, and the patient doesn't get enough oxygen. Too much, and the increased pressure will damage the already very delicate (and now further compromised) sacs. So strapping a simple mechanical device to a patient could easily do more harm than good.

I'm not saying this can't be done ralitively cheaply, but the device shown in the video in that article doesn't appear to address this. Also worth remembering that a substantial part of the cost of medical devices are due to 1) development cost that have to recouped, 2) testing and certification cost, and I have some industry experience here - it is significant, and 3) comparative lack of economies of scale (compared to say, mobile phones).

This video from Real Engineering channel discusses the issues with building ventilators:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vLPefHYWpY
 
rfields5421
Posts: 6268
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:45 am

Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:14 pm

My brother spent 22 days in ICU last May due to severe pneumonia. Part of the reason he was there so long is the pneumonia was caused by a yeast infection from aspirated food. (Okay, he is 59, has Downs Syndrome, and has lived in group homes basically since he was seven, things were different in rural Arkansas in 1967.)

Most of the time, he had a tube down his throat for nutrition, and another to provide oxygen. To ASSIST his breathing.

My sister, who is his guardian, did not authorize a ventilator. We know as a family how difficult it is to get a patient off a ventilator and get them breathing again somewhat normally. People placed on ventilators do not have a high success rate of returning to a normal life. Maybe it is different for a short time with a disease like this, but I've personally never known a person who came off one after more than a couple days who did not have a trachea tube the rest of their life.

My personal Advanced Medical Directive says no ventilator can be used.

IMHO ventilators are not the answer to fighting this disease. Maybe for a few they can be useful in a short term crisis.
Not all who wander are lost.
 
Sokes
Posts: 1633
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:47 pm

@ seat64k:
Thank you for this excellent link. Real information.
I myself didn't trust the devise from the link I posted. That's why I said "can be used in 20% cases". I had borderline people in mind. Keep pressure very low. But seeing your video I realize neither moisturizing air nor frequency during sleep is taken care of. If rfields is right that point anyway becomes pointless.
Otherwise it may be still better than nothing. But I agree for heavy cases that need delicately balanced pressure for two weeks it is most likely not suitable.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
olle
Posts: 2258
Joined: Tue Feb 06, 2007 3:38 am

Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:54 pm

I thinl from economically and risk point of view we must think of the chernobyl case.

Do we accept that major part of Europe cannot be used for livibg for 100 years. It was close, and only by kamikaze actions by a lot of people it was avoided.

In economical pint of view I think that many companies from USA and Europe will find a second sourcibg from Central and South America, ukraine, afrika etc beside china.

This will go slow but I think that in 10 years things will without too much noice be different.

This epedemic came in a period of diplomatic bad relations. If a president lika obama, together with blair or cameron and merkel had been in power things would have worked out faster. It also happened in the mid of administration change of EU.

If EU had defined rules for handling this kind of cases without political involvement things might would had looked diffrerent in italy and spain.


China and iran connects its future of their roling monopol on avoiding this kind of news. Perhaps if the outbreak had been in a country like india things would have been handled earlier?
 
L410Turbolet
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Mon Apr 13, 2020 7:55 pm

olle wrote:
If EU had defined rules for handling this kind of cases without political involvement things might would had looked diffrerent in italy and spain.

... or the whole EU would be like Italy, France or Spain as we speak. It's apparent that smaller EU member states (Belgium being an exception) handled the epidemic - so far - much better than the large ones. Would yet another one-size-fits-all policy be of any help?
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8507
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:29 pm

L410Turbolet wrote:
olle wrote:
If EU had defined rules for handling this kind of cases without political involvement things might would had looked diffrerent in italy and spain.

... or the whole EU would be like Italy, France or Spain as we speak. It's apparent that smaller EU member states (Belgium being an exception) handled the epidemic - so far - much better than the large ones. Would yet another one-size-fits-all policy be of any help?


Just look at the Americans. The FDA and oh so glorified CDC botched the testing response, likely because of tradition in the way the have handled things in the past (sounds familiar? Much like 9/11 and inter-agency dysfunction). And the main political opposition to the current US government blames it on the lack of political involvement (someone in the west wing? Idk. terrible idea nonetheless)

A pandemic like this needs to take cues from cyber security. We need resilient, anti-fragile systems, and that does not mean a single centralized point of failure.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
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Tugger
Posts: 10610
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Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:42 pm

[quote="PPVRA] A pandemic like this needs to take cues from cyber security. We need resilient, anti-fragile systems, and that does not mean a single centralized point of failure.[/quote]
Sorry but you do need a centralized authority to ensure coordination. You may be coordinating two or more entities but there needs to be an authority that parties have prior agreed to.

Otherwise you end up with the pile we are seeing.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
PPVRA
Posts: 8507
Joined: Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:48 am

Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 1:01 am

Tugger wrote:
[quote="PPVRA] A pandemic like this needs to take cues from cyber security. We need resilient, anti-fragile systems, and that does not mean a single centralized point of failure.[/quote]
Sorry but you do need a centralized authority to ensure coordination. You may be coordinating two or more entities but there needs to be an authority that parties have prior agreed to.

Otherwise you end up with the pile we are seeing.

Tugg[/quote][/quote]



“The great strength the US has always had, not just in virology, is that we’ve always had a wide variety of people and groups working on any given problem,” says Jerome. “When we decided all coronavirus testing had to be done by a single entity, even one as outstanding as CDC, we basically gave away our greatest strength.”

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/0 ... s-testing/
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
sabby
Posts: 446
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:11 pm

Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:13 am

I can think of some financial mandates. All large businesses with profit must build a cash fund to pay the employees for 3-6 months. This would be staggered of course, e.g. 100% for the lower income groups, 70% of the next and 50% for non executives. Maintaining this fund should be enforced before stock buy back, dividend, re-investing etc. Failing to adhere to this should mean no bail out or cheap loan.

In addition, a one time tax break for individuals who set aside a % of their annual income ( up to a limit for higher income groups) in a special cash fund which could be utilized when they become unemployed for short times before the unemployment comes through.

For tourism, I think restrictions should be put for large groups. People travelling in large groups tend to be more irresponsible for littering, destroying the environment as well as tracing / spreading infections.

A lot of focus should be on self sustainability, especially in the basic sectors such as food and health care. Countries should not rely on other countries for essentials (exceptions for small / geographically challenged countries of course).
 
tommy1808
Posts: 13240
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 3:24 pm

Re: How can we better handle the next virus outbreak?

Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:28 am

L410Turbolet wrote:
olle wrote:
If EU had defined rules for handling this kind of cases without political involvement things might would had looked diffrerent in italy and spain.

... or the whole EU would be like Italy, France or Spain as we speak. It's apparent that smaller EU member states (Belgium being an exception) handled the epidemic - so far - much better than the large ones.


Ah. wishful thinking: https://www.dkv.global/covid

Lots of smaller EU members brining up the rear. .

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6

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