I don't think this will go on for 18-24 months in the US but if it does, will people (especially young people) move to other parts of the world where life is pretty much the way it was before? What place most resembles what life in the US was like before all the stay at home orders? If you always dreamed of living in an exotic far away place is now a good or bad time to consider it? Will some states rebel more against federal recommendations the longer this goes on and could somewhere like Nebraska or some other random state become a new hotspot because more places are open?

Relocate why? This virus is ravaging the world.

Some may find it difficult to be in a the vibrant city they love without all the people , bars and restaurants, but that will all come back. People will relocate for the reasons they always have, love, jobs, scenery, retirement, kids, grandkids and others.

Unless Nebraska comes up with a really catchy slogan for flat corn heaven, I doubt many will flock there.

Relocating to another country is always easier said than done. If you can find an employer willing to offer you a job with descent income, help with visas and move - this is the way to do it. Otherwise pretty much everything - language, join, career - all these pose unique and hard challenges when moving, and only a minority manages to solve those without wrecking one’s life or career.

After all, many Hillary supporters said they were planning to move to Canada if Trump wins. Well, Trump is almost done his first term - and for some reason we did not see any mass emigration from the USA.

afcjets wrote:

I don't think this will go on for 18-24 months in the US but if it does, will people (especially young people) move to other parts of the world where life is pretty much the way it was before? What place most resembles what life in the US was like before all the stay at home orders? If you always dreamed of living in an exotic far away place is now a good or bad time to consider it? Will some states rebel more against federal recommendations the longer this goes on and could somewhere like Nebraska or some other random state become a new hotspot because more places are open?

The places most similar to life in the US that are well suited to those with an interest in the outdoors are Australia and NZ. Both are quite difficult to move to as an American without STEM or IT experience.

anrec80 wrote:

If you can find an employer willing to offer you a job with descent income, help with visas and move - this is the way to do it. Otherwise pretty much everything - language, join, career - all these pose unique and hard challenges when moving, and only a minority manages to solve those without wrecking one’s life or career.

Aaron747 wrote:

The places most similar to life in the US that are well suited to those with an interest in the outdoors are Australia and NZ. Both are quite difficult to move to as an American without STEM or IT experience.

Take your now virtual job with you.

casinterest wrote:

Unless Nebraska comes up with a really catchy slogan for flat corn heaven, I doubt many will flock there.

Come for the corn, Stay for the steaks.
Nebraska, like Oklahoma with more snow.
Nebraska where social distancing is easy.

Yeah.... don't think those work.

afcjets wrote:

anrec80 wrote:

If you can find an employer willing to offer you a job with descent income, help with visas and move - this is the way to do it. Otherwise pretty much everything - language, join, career - all these pose unique and hard challenges when moving, and only a minority manages to solve those without wrecking one’s life or career.

Aaron747 wrote:

The places most similar to life in the US that are well suited to those with an interest in the outdoors are Australia and NZ. Both are quite difficult to move to as an American without STEM or IT experience.

Take your now virtual job with you.

I already lived overseas for seven years - were I to do so again those countries would have my eye, as would Malta or the Balearic islands. Climates similar to California are appealing.

T18 - Good ones
----------------------------------------------

The people most impacted but this are not the people you see on this forum, or others. Not even FaceBook.

In the US, they have hourly jobs, mostly part-time, not eligible for unemployment. They are having a hard time find enough money to feed their kids.

Virtual jobs - those level of people are not HURTING. They are inconvenienced. Yes they are worried. Not about survival, but about the entertainment of their life. Holidays, travel, social gatherings, etc.

Some will move, but most do not want wide open spaces with social distancing. They want the excitement and entertainment only possible in largish cities with a lot of people with a lot of disposable income.
-------------------------------
anrec80

It is COLD in Canada. Knew some draft dodgers in the late 60's and early 70's who came back and enlisted after a winter in Canada.

I don't think there is anyplace like pre-COVID USA. I doubt any country will be welcoming foreigners with open arms. This virus will wreak havoc on small places like sparsely populated islands.

If you are social butterfly, remember that you were a caterpillar and chrysalis before becoming a butterfly. Just go back a notch as chrysalis for few months and reemerge as a butterfly.

We could see some move from high cost urban areas to less expensive communities, especially if can work remotely or decide to downsize their income.

rfields5421 wrote:

The people most impacted but this are not the people you see on this forum, or others. Not even FaceBook.

In the US, they have hourly jobs, mostly part-time, not eligible for unemployment. They are having a hard time find enough money to feed their kids.

Virtual jobs - those level of people are not HURTING. They are inconvenienced. Yes they are worried. Not about survival, but about the entertainment of their life. Holidays, travel, social gatherings, etc.

Some will move, but most do not want wide open spaces with social distancing. They want the excitement and entertainment only possible in largish cities with a lot of people with a lot of disposable income.

Fair assessment.

Aaron747 wrote:

The places most similar to life in the US that are well suited to those with an interest in the outdoors are Australia and NZ. Both are quite difficult to move to as an American without STEM or IT experience.

Right. But I think even that is not now the same as it has been. Americans tend to bring more complications and pay-level requirements than say, South Asians for the same type of work. That mar not have mattered as much before, but I feel like it would more so now.

In my own experience, to the UK of all places, those things were certainly the way to do it, and then only with a sponsor(able) employer. These days though, I would not think about that with anything less than the equivalent of an O1B or O2 Visa. And these vary from nation to nation, obviously.

ltbewr wrote:

We could see some move from high cost urban areas to less expensive communities, especially if can work remotely or decide to downsize their income.

I did that when coming back to the US - settled in a CA county with 250K people after years in a Japanese metro of 21 million. LA and SF are under 2 hours in a C172 if we need more excitement.

Zero regrets. A lot of people, if able, may realize positive changes making a change in density.

rfields5421 wrote:

It is COLD in Canada. Knew some draft dodgers in the late 60's and early 70's who came back and enlisted after a winter in Canada.

To be fair - not all Canada is cold. In Vancouver and surrounding areas on Pacific coast, it rarely gets below freezing. And in the middle - it's -40 degrees worth of dry cold.

I think if anything now is a good chance to re-evaluate if living in high density over populated, over expensive cities is worth it. But in any case the wealthy class will still find a way to keep their servants near them to do the jobs they can't or won't do by keeping the supposed 'rent controls' and low income housing in place. Some will still have the AOC types to make them believe they have people 'fighting' for them, so its doubtless they will abandon the large cities in the meantime.

Suburbia means many will leave the Democrat party, and become centrist or leaning GOP types. Not to mention rural places.

Aaron747 wrote:

The places most similar to life in the US that are well suited to those with an interest in the outdoors are Australia and NZ. Both are quite difficult to move to as an American without STEM or IT experience.

Even with STEM or IT experience - all this is good if you are below 30 years of age and have about 5 years of experience. As you go up in the food chain, you are more and more likely to end up being overqualified. For me, having 15 years of career experience in IT, and 8.5 in New York financial industry, I anticipate having tough luck getting a job in Canada. And I did have friends from USA who had to move there and tell stories of continuous rejections due to employers finding them overqualified. This is something not really common in the USA.

afcjets wrote:

I don't think this will go on for 18-24 months in the US but if it does, will people (especially young people) move to other parts of the world where life is pretty much the way it was before?

That place being...Antarctica?

Hopefully more people will move out of California.

Of course that will just push Texas and Idaho etc. more "blue". Should be interesting.

Tugg

Tugger wrote:

Hopefully more people will move out of California.

Of course that will just push Texas and Idaho etc. more "blue". Should be interesting.

Tugg

I doubt people will move from California to Idaho. They are pretty strict telling what their citizens can and can not do. LDS Church has some influence over Idaho law. Not like in Utah but they still do hold influence.

seb146 wrote:

Tugger wrote:

Hopefully more people will move out of California.

Of course that will just push Texas and Idaho etc. more "blue". Should be interesting.

Tugg

I doubt people will move from California to Idaho. They are pretty strict telling what their citizens can and can not do. LDS Church has some influence over Idaho law. Not like in Utah but they still do hold influence.

Well Idahoans are already complaining about how many Californian's move there (they also complain about Washingtonians from the SEATAC area).

An interesting look at the "moving California" issue (or exodus as some people want to fanatically claim):
https://www.ocregister.com/2019/11/01/6 ... hey-go-to/

It's a damn big and economically strong and vibrant state that creates wealth that spreads to many other states. It will be interesting how the virus fallout affects that.

Tugg

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Suburbia means many will leave the Democrat party, and become centrist or leaning GOP types. Not to mention rural places.

I wouldn't be so sure. Unfortunately too many people who leave California for places like Texas end up voting for the same things that made them leave California in the first place.

seb146 wrote:

In my experience, those moving from city centers move to just outside the urban zone and keep or just slightly soften their "liberal" political stand.

Yes!

afcjets wrote:

AirWorthy99 wrote:

Suburbia means many will leave the Democrat party, and become centrist or leaning GOP types. Not to mention rural places.

I wouldn't be so sure. Unfortunately too many people who leave California for places like Texas end up voting for the same things that made them leave California in the first place.

True, but down here in Florida we get many people from the NE states. Most of them register Republican or independent. Though yes I know that those in California tend to continue with their political sympathies nonetheless wherever they move.

What we are seeing in Texas is few, if any, of the New York and California types moving to this state are becoming conservative. If anything, they are joining with the "Mexicans", many of whose families have been in Texas since before there was a Texas.

They are pushing there suburbs of places like Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio to the left politically.

The Republican controlled legislature is worried about being able to rig the Congressional districts to lose only four seats to the Democrats after the current census is complete, and they might lose control of the State Senate.

I doubt people will move from California to Idaho. They are pretty strict telling what their citizens can and can not do. LDS Church has some influence over Idaho law. Not like in Utah but they still do hold influence.
Well Idahoans are already complaining about how many Californian's move there (they also complain about Washingtonians from the SEATAC area


Tugg

Which is pretty funny considering how many Washingtonians complain about people moving here from California. I guess what's good for the goose is good for the gander

I've long planned to move to a less densely populated area when I retire, COVID had nothing to do with it. Once I don't need to be close to my office for ease of commuting, I can't see any reason to be fighting traffic and crowds on a daily basis. Heck, if the boss gets convinced that this work from home thing can go permanent, I won't even wait that long

All this talk about moving to "Rural areas". Guess what they won't be anymore.. .Rural. People move to cities for the opportunities and diversity present. Big cities flourish due to their access to schools, arts, entertainment, dining, and ability to make a living.

Rural areas flourish at being what they are, remote areas suited to farming, and logging, or the occasional newly retired folks that demand isolated freedom in the great beyond until medicine dicatates that they move back closer to civilization.

This virus will not change that behavior. It will make working from home an option, but for many younger folks that just gives them more reason to live in communities that give them access to the best of both worlds.

I can drive 5-10 miles and reach various city centers, and I can drive 2-3 miles and be at a lake or great hiking trails. Suburbia perfection for me.

One thing I do wonder is if this will at all impact the drive to "densify" and the call to "stop suburban sprawl". I really don't think it will at all since what is driving that has no connection to disease as such.

This also relates to my earlier thread on mass-transit versus private vehicles. I find it quite a nice escape to be able to get out and drive a bit. Yay for private vehicles and garages!

Tugg

We are starting our 22nd year of living outside of the US. I would do it again in a heartbeat. It has been the best experience for my family and my "children": now ages from 33-25 would not move back to the US for anything. All three went to University for 10% of the cost in the US, 2 went on to get a masters for about 10% of the cost of the US. Two are married and live in the UK while the third work in London. They go back to the US quite frequently and are amazed at how expensive/right-wing/stifling the US has become. We still have a house in the US located on the ocean up in the NE. We hardly use it and I keep saying I am going to sell it if people don't want to use it. Perhaps in a year or so when things return to "normal".

I am not sure there will be a major shift to rural areas, but similar to the Great Depression I believe there will be some cultural shifts that will impact this generation's approach to real estate:

1) More shift towards suburbs vs city centers. Not because infection rates will be materially different, but because a lot of people, when looking at their next house, will ask themselves "Do I see myself being locked up in this place for a couple of months straight?". Having a small backyard that you can use to get some fresh air (and perhaps even a vegetable garden), and a basement where you can easily store an extra freezer and some dry and paper goods, will be very valuable for many people. The usual "space vs location" trade-off will increasingly lean towards space

2) Vacation homes. I think that, on the margin, you will see more people, particularly the ones who remain living in the city centre, look for vacation homes where they can get the space they don't get in their apartments (perhaps travel less and save some money so they can have a refuge). Also, may see people preferring more rural settings for their vacation homes, as opposed to more beach hotspots, like the Hamptons. Obviously at this point in time, with markets crashing, I don't think a lot of people will be looking at buying new vacation homes, so this will be a longer term effect.

DocLightning wrote:

afcjets wrote:

I don't think this will go on for 18-24 months in the US but if it does, will people (especially young people) move to other parts of the world where life is pretty much the way it was before?

That place being...Antarctica?

North Korea? I believe officially they still have no Coronavirus cases, I am sure their numbers are as trustworthy as those of their neighbor, China.

My dad owns property in Pinedale Wyoming with a private pond stocked with fish. There a cabin there, but it's from the 60's and we just use it when we go hunting once a year. right now, I want to stay put. but if things get worse, we will head there for a bit.

Our gov thinking of doing a stay at home until June. shutter.

I used Nebraska as an example in the opening post because it was one of five states that did not impose stay at home orders on their people, not because it's rural. I have only been there once and I don't even think I spent the night. When I drove through downtown Omaha there wasn't much there and while I have no desire to live there if this continues on for too long and the choice is stay home all the time or go out for a steak dinner in Omaha, Omaha could become the most vibrant city in the US. But all the points made about rural and suburban vs. urban are still good ones.

casinterest wrote:

the occasional newly retired folks that demand isolated freedom in the great beyond until medicine dicatates that they move back closer to civilization.

I can drive 5-10 miles and reach various city centers, and I can drive 2-3 miles and be at a lake or great hiking trails. Suburbia perfection for me.

My life. For many years I dreamed about retiring and moving to a cabin in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Then I retired and realized how important living near good, large hospitals was. I still live in the suburbs of DTW and visit the UP, but I'm where I'm comfortable. Plenty of local hiking opportunities. I also realize that the real wilderness hiking I did when I was younger isn't as safe due to more of a chance for injury.

afcjets wrote:

I used Nebraska as an example in the opening post because it was one of five states that did not impose stay at home orders on their people, not because it's rural. I have only been there once and I don't even think I spent the night. When I drove through downtown Omaha there wasn't much there and while I have no desire to live there if this continues on for too long and the choice is stay home all the time or go out for a steak dinner in Omaha, Omaha could become the most vibrant city in the US. But all the points made about rural and suburban vs. urban are still good ones.

Don't worry, they'll get hit hard. Every place will if they don't do antisocial distancing.

I don't think many people will change their living arraignment. We have been looking at moving closer to some place for a while. We both like knowing that we can just get in the car and, in a short time, be in a major city. I like being in a sea of people but I also like being the only one within 10 miles. Not all the time, though.

I also think people will not be able to afford to move anyway, when this has wound down. We will just carry on as best we can having understood much more than before.

NE is projected to have a total of 289 deaths by August, likely less than that as the model trends have been greater than actual deaths, say 240. Not hard hit, I’d say and no restrictions, either.

johns624 wrote:

casinterest wrote:

the occasional newly retired folks that demand isolated freedom in the great beyond until medicine dicatates that they move back closer to civilization.

I can drive 5-10 miles and reach various city centers, and I can drive 2-3 miles and be at a lake or great hiking trails. Suburbia perfection for me.

My life. For many years I dreamed about retiring and moving to a cabin in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Then I retired and realized how important living near good, large hospitals was. I still live in the suburbs of DTW and visit the UP, but I'm where I'm comfortable. Plenty of local hiking opportunities. I also realize that the real wilderness hiking I did when I was younger isn't as safe due to more of a chance for injury.

Great thing about the central coast in CA is the situation similar to above, just with different scenery (and no harsh winter). Lots of hiking, beaches, and quiet neighborhoods. Two high-ranked hospitals in KSBP if there are any pressing needs.

If real estate crashes in some places I'd like to live in then I might relocate there. Not to get back the "exciting life" though, not until I'm immune to COVID19 at least.

The other day there was a man on TV who was recovering from the illness, he had been on a ventilator for weeks, woke up in another country (Germany), after that he decided to retire right away from his job.

I wonder if people who might radically change their lives won't be these people that have come close to death, rather than youth annoyed by the closure of their night club.

johns624 wrote:

casinterest wrote:

the occasional newly retired folks that demand isolated freedom in the great beyond until medicine dicatates that they move back closer to civilization.

I can drive 5-10 miles and reach various city centers, and I can drive 2-3 miles and be at a lake or great hiking trails. Suburbia perfection for me.

My life. For many years I dreamed about retiring and moving to a cabin in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Then I retired and realized how important living near good, large hospitals was. I still live in the suburbs of DTW and visit the UP, but I'm where I'm comfortable. Plenty of local hiking opportunities. I also realize that the real wilderness hiking I did when I was younger isn't as safe due to more of a chance for injury.

I went to Auburn Hills for work one week a few years ago , and found a great green-way for hiking after work. Beautiful fall days.

So LA extended it's stay at home order through 5/15. Watch LDFs out of LAX experience a bump on 5/1 when it's lifted in other states where places start to open.

afcjets wrote:

So LA extended it's stay at home order through 5/15. Watch LDFs out of LAX experience a bump on 5/1 when it's lifted in other states where places start to open.

I doubt it for two reason:

1. It takes money to move which people will not have by then
2. People will get to what they think is paradise and see it is worse and understand what they had before was not so bad.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

NE is projected to have a total of 289 deaths by August, likely less than that as the model trends have been greater than actual deaths, say 240. Not hard hit, I’d say and no restrictions, either.

Like ND, NE is not really a destination. Couple that with a low population and that is why the numbers seem good. WA, NY, and CA all have high numbers of cases and deaths because the world comes to and passes through those three states more than others. I would also point out that partiers in TX, LA, and FL were from other states that are seeing increases in infections and deaths.

seb146 wrote:

afcjets wrote:

So LA extended it's stay at home order through 5/15. Watch LDFs out of LAX experience a bump on 5/1 when it's lifted in other states where places start to open.

I doubt it for two reason:

1. It takes money to move which people will not have by then
2. People will get to what they think is paradise and see it is worse and understand what they had before was not so bad.

LA actually has people who have money and for some of those who don't, their government check will be larger than their paycheck. After a month of captivity in their home, many people might not think it's paradise anymore, especially for those who don't have a house with a lot of outdoor space.

afcjets wrote:

So LA extended it's stay at home order through 5/15. Watch LDFs out of LAX experience a bump on 5/1 when it's lifted in other states where places start to open.

And so California's influence will continue to grow?

Tugg

afcjets wrote:

seb146 wrote:

afcjets wrote:

So LA extended it's stay at home order through 5/15. Watch LDFs out of LAX experience a bump on 5/1 when it's lifted in other states where places start to open.

I doubt it for two reason:

1. It takes money to move which people will not have by then
2. People will get to what they think is paradise and see it is worse and understand what they had before was not so bad.

LA actually has people who have money and for some of those who don't, their government check will be larger than their paycheck. After a month of captivity in their home, many people might not think it's paradise anymore, especially for those who don't have a house with a lot of outdoor space. Eventually going to PF Chang's in Salt Lake will be more exciting than ordering Mr. Chow or Chin Chin's takeout

Wow, a lot of needless doom and gloom here in this thread. I think one year from now this will be a back page story, albeit a few less airlines to choose from.

afcjets wrote:

afcjets wrote:

seb146 wrote:

I doubt it for two reason:

1. It takes money to move which people will not have by then
2. People will get to what they think is paradise and see it is worse and understand what they had before was not so bad.

LA actually has people who have money and for some of those who don't, their government check will be larger than their paycheck. After a month of captivity in their home, many people might not think it's paradise anymore, especially for those who don't have a house with a lot of outdoor space. Eventually going to PF Chang's in Salt Lake will be more exciting than ordering Mr. Chow or Chin Chin's takeout

Actually, you make a great point: Move those "liberals" out of California and into MAGA states so we can get this country back on track, the way Eisenhower and FDR would like!

Your "PF Changs" argument does not make the point you think it does. I get where you are going, though. I love local shops and local restaurants. I would much rather have Elanitas taco truck on Sebastopol Rd. than Chipotle anywhere. Any major city has those really good, local shops. But, would it be worth it, especially if a family has to start all over again? Leave their family and secure job to start from scratch? Risk another quarantine in a state that has yet to see a spike?

I think the "people with money in LA" you are talking about are people like Kardashians and Lady Gaga and such. When this is over, go stay in Canoga Park or Azusa or someplace away from what you would see on TV. Even people in the "glitz" areas were struggling before this happened, believe it or not.

BravoOne wrote:

Wow, a lot of needless doom and gloom here in this thread. I think one year from now this will be a back page story, albeit a few less airlines to choose from.

I basically agree. The doom & gloom I hear/read is ridiculous. Humans have a marvelous ability to move on and reassess what they will live with to have a "normal life".

This is not the end of anything, just another thing we will all live with as we move on.

Tugg

I lived in Wichita for a bit, and despite my initial apprehension to moving there, I was pleasantly surprised. I am considering moving back, taking a pay cut, and enjoying the significantly lower cost of living with a reduced salary. Downtown Wichita is actually a very progressive, vibrant place with some great urban renewal going on. Even looking at downsizing significantly right now where I'm at in Denver while I wait for job prospects.

anrec80 wrote:

Aaron747 wrote:

The places most similar to life in the US that are well suited to those with an interest in the outdoors are Australia and NZ. Both are quite difficult to move to as an American without STEM or IT experience.

Even with STEM or IT experience - all this is good if you are below 30 years of age and have about 5 years of experience. As you go up in the food chain, you are more and more likely to end up being overqualified. For me, having 15 years of career experience in IT, and 8.5 in New York financial industry, I anticipate having tough luck getting a job in Canada. And I did have friends from USA who had to move there and tell stories of continuous rejections due to employers finding them overqualified. This is something not really common in the USA.

Hiring managers are scared of very qualified people potentially taking over their job, or moving elsewhere quickly.

I got to thinking about "the New Normal" last night -

There is always something which causes a "New Normal" to occur every few years. Not usually as sudden as this deal with the virus, but several.times it has happened to me.

When I grew up, people looked for one job and expected to work at that company in that basic skill area for 30-40 years. I graduated high school in 1970. In Feb 1979, the paper mill in my home town closed with just two month's notice. Literally half of my high school classmates lost jobs, small business they had started, eventually homes. Only ONE person from my high school class was kept by International Paper Company. He had recently finished a Masters of Science in Microbiology paid for by the company. (Ended up staying with them until he was 65, but he moved several times, including a two year stint in Sweden.)

When I flew to Navy boot camp in 1972, I was probably one of less than a dozen of 140 in my class who had been on an airplane. At our 30 year reunion, over 100 of those still alive had flown across an ocean.

Computers were something only a few of us who read science fiction books had an understanding of the concept of what they might could do.

In the late 80s, AOL, CompuServe were nice. Prodigy was pretty lame. But it takes a bit of a geek to bother doing what is necessary to use these new tools and communications capabilities. Masses of people will never bother.

Who is going to pay for television, which you can watch three channels for free with an antenna?

Movies are dying. Why go to a hot, crowded theater when you can watch a movie in a few years free on TV. in the ONE air conditioned room in your home.

After air travel became popular, why bother with airport security. Sure some things happened, but that was only a few crazy people at least halfway around the world. (Sure, tell me how 9/11 did not create a New Normal,)

Etc, Etc ………..

Part of the process of becoming a boring unhappy old fart is thinking and complaining about how things used to be.

Humans do not like change, no matter how much we may pretended it doesn't bother us. Things happen to change the world, how we will live in the future, every day. True most are not as drastic/ dramatic as 9/11 or COVID-19, but it happens. How we deal with the 'New Normal' is what defines us.

Today, we have no real idea how this crisis will impact us in the long run. I assure you that almost everything we are SURE will happen, won't be exactly as we predict.

I hope you all live long enough to look back at this with a perspective to someday say "The world got through it. Things were rough, but not as bad as they could have been. And we got better."