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frmrCapCadet
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How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:30 pm

Our shipyard is pretty much back to work: monitoring and masking, testing, sick or administrative leave as needed. It seems to be working

There was a misleading Washington Post article, about the hordes of grocery workers dying from the virus. There were 42 deaths but there are 3 million workers. Obviously every one of those is a tragic loss to family and friends. But the numbers do not indicate that grocery stores are centers of the disease spreading. I am all for using the best available public health guidelines for these very important workers. Ideally the feds would kick in supplies as needed. And what are grocery stores doing right to keep those numbers down?

Health workers, especially in nursing home and hospital situations are the most exposed. Definitely federal assistance in supplies, sick leave, and administrative leave should be happening.

The White House seems to be insisting that reopening the economy will be done by dictate. Stupid. It is a technical question, and each category of jobs needs to assessed by public health specialists as to what steps and how quickly things return to normal. The President should be establishing task groups for all of those job categories.

I would particularly hear from members here what they are seeing about successful restarts of the economy.
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:34 pm

Every state has DPH and local experts to make these decisions under existing local conditions. Why is this a Presidential problem? That’s exactly the wrong “one size fits all” level of thinking.
 
rfields5421
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:57 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Why is this a Presidential problem? That’s exactly the wrong “one size fits all” level of thinking.


Because the Orange in Chief ranted several times yesterday (Tuesday) the President had the power to override ANY state laws and rules. That he could order cities and states to end stay at home orders, social distancing guidelines, non-essential business closures, etc. He was very specific that when HE gives the order to end any restrictions or guidelines that NYC and NY State must follow his orders.

Yeah, I'm sure some of the strong states rights folk like Texas Governor Abbott, and California Governor Newsome were unhappy with what he said.

Yes, Democrat Newsome is a states rights man - he wants California to be able to do anything it wants and not have the federal government have any say, but to send money - just like Abbot in Texas. Entirely different political goals, but each sees their state as a personal kingdom.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We have been in four different counties in Texas since Mar 1. None of those had stay at home orders. Governor Abbott refuses to issue a state wide order for anything except school closings, and that is a recommendation, which has been followed almost everywhere.

Starting about March 16, we saw business start to close down. Mostly it is voluntary, or driven by non-local owners. A lot of restaurants are associated with a major chain as a franchise. Their operating orders and decision on hours, dining room access and such come from outside the county.

Locally owned grocery, hardware and such stores are open, but practicing social distancing.

Almost all local small restaurants are only offering takeout.

But many 'non-essential' stores and businesses are open. Such as the local company which sells stuff for small track auto racing. Their main location in Dallas County is closed as non-essential. The retail store. They still process and ship orders, and send items out to their open five retail outlets in counties which do not have non-essential business closure orders.

The biggest impact to me and my wife personally has been the closure of all 'common use' facilities in the campgrounds where we stay, Recreation buildings, pools and such (Yes, we open swimming pools and use them in March in parts of Texas. Two 90+ days last week.

Our eye doctor/ surgeon office is in Dallas County. He has closed because his main source of patients is cataract and other eye surgery considered elective. (We are follow up cataract patients - semi-annual visits). Also, his son is a final year resident in Manhattan. In early March, they flew his family down to Dallas. And after the Dallas County order shut down the doctor's office, he went to NYC to help where he could.

My daughter's husband is an independent insurance adjuster, focusing on roofing. His business is basically stopped, but there was a hail storm near Dallas recently, so he is getting some calls. His 'part time' job was deliveries to businesses of various supplies. Since most offices in Dallas and Collin county are now 'work from home', he doesn't have that income source.

Recover, opening. Not much happening, yet. But a lot of talk. No one is calling workers and telling them to be ready to go back to work soon. Everyone seems to be holding their breath waiting for May 1 to get closer.
Last edited by rfields5421 on Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:02 pm

A successful restart of the economy as a whole will be difficult. The US is a service based economy now, and a lot of that will be slow to return. Air travel, hotels, restaurants, bars, sales. These items will not turn up quickly unless fear of a new wave of Covid-19 can be put to rest. I am still working, but I never stopped.

Getting kids back to school, and having enough freedom to move about the country and world will take time, and so will getting the economy humming again.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:10 pm

California sends a lot more money to Washington DC than Washington sends to California. About the only red state that also sends more money to the feds is Texas.
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trpmb6
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:48 pm

Here in Kansas they have started furloughing health care workers. The hospitals are empty and no one is getting elective surgeries or getting the flu or Covid19. Nobody is playing sports so no broken bones, no torn ACLs. Schools are closed to less illness spreading amongst the little ones. Its really quite interesting. I think its time for us to reopen. My mental health is suffering. I know others are as well. We can reopen with precautions and maintain healthy practices. Our spread out lifestyles here lend itself to easily controlling the situation. I hit my peak productivity of working from home about a week or two ago. Now it's just mindnumbing. We are social creatures and I need to see other humans besides my immediate family. Spend more time on status meetings than anything it seems at this point.

We had a few folks at our company that tested positive, but they had traveled to the coasts for on site visits or testing etc. While they are still saying cases pop up, it's not widespread and quite limited. And the # of cases found seems to be pacing linearly with the # of tests done.

We also need to worry about the lag of restarting a sleeping economy of our size. It will take time to get it fully back up and going. The sooner we start getting some of the safer portions of the economy back up, the sooner we can get the more risky places - restaurants for instance - back up. The service industry has been hit hard - the longer we take to get back open the longer they will suffer.
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:24 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
, the sooner we can get the more risky places - restaurants for instance - back up. The service industry has been hit hard - the longer we take to get back open the longer they will suffer.

This is in my opinion the hardest thing to restart. Any sector that involves large groups of stranger getting together in close proximity witl be difficult to "start" to say the least. With restaurants, well sit down restaurants, among the toughest. Restaurants will have to adjust customer spacing at the very least, this reduces sales which means prices will have to increase which will further reduce sales. And demand will already be reduced by the fear of being in proximity of others, eating, chewing, coughing, talking.

Tugg
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:34 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
We also need to worry about the lag of restarting a sleeping economy of our size. It will take time to get it fully back up and going. The sooner we start getting some of the safer portions of the economy back up, the sooner we can get the more risky places - restaurants for instance - back up. The service industry has been hit hard - the longer we take to get back open the longer they will suffer.



Indeed. Related to this, a lot of people in that area have lost jobs, and will have been unemployed for several months by the time we are able to restart. For that segment, restarting too quickly will have a pretty nasty side effect of reintroducing a ton of costs with no money to handle that. This is bad on a per capita level, but the real issue is have 30 - 40% of our economy's participants in that boat. I think whatever happens, recovery will have a definable W - shape, but that does not ameliorate the need for this to be properly, and artificially managed.
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AirWorthy99
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 8:52 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Here in Kansas they have started furloughing health care workers. The hospitals are empty and no one is getting elective surgeries or getting the flu or Covid19.


This is one serious consequence of having this huge intervention into an economy and shutting it down. Health care which we will need during and after COVID19 is getting pretty hammered.

This is going on in the entire country, long term health effects of this crisis are far beyond COVID19, something the experts and other officials did not take into account when they ordered this unprecedented shutdown.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:09 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Here in Kansas they have started furloughing health care workers. The hospitals are empty and no one is getting elective surgeries or getting the flu or Covid19.


This is one serious consequence of having this huge intervention into an economy and shutting it down. Health care which we will need during and after COVID19 is getting pretty hammered.

This is going on in the entire country, long term health effects of this crisis are far beyond COVID19, something the experts and other officials did not take into account when they ordered this unprecedented shutdown.

But they did take it into account. It will be nice to have some real accountability into the elective surgery side of health care.
I love how all the non essential workers are whining because the steps taken have been effective in controlling the spread of a deadly virus.
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AirWorthy99
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:26 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Here in Kansas they have started furloughing health care workers. The hospitals are empty and no one is getting elective surgeries or getting the flu or Covid19.


This is one serious consequence of having this huge intervention into an economy and shutting it down. Health care which we will need during and after COVID19 is getting pretty hammered.

This is going on in the entire country, long term health effects of this crisis are far beyond COVID19, something the experts and other officials did not take into account when they ordered this unprecedented shutdown.

But they did take it into account. It will be nice to have some real accountability into the elective surgery side of health care.
I love how all the non essential workers are whining because the steps taken have been effective in controlling the spread of a deadly virus.


I hope you are right, and a year from now we would say it was necessary, considering millions are without jobs, and that affects their health too. Care to cite where did the experts take into account the massive toll of an economic recession or depression due to the shutdown?
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:31 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

This is one serious consequence of having this huge intervention into an economy and shutting it down. Health care which we will need during and after COVID19 is getting pretty hammered.

This is going on in the entire country, long term health effects of this crisis are far beyond COVID19, something the experts and other officials did not take into account when they ordered this unprecedented shutdown.

But they did take it into account. It will be nice to have some real accountability into the elective surgery side of health care.
I love how all the non essential workers are whining because the steps taken have been effective in controlling the spread of a deadly virus.


I hope you are right, and a year from now we would say it was necessary, considering millions are without jobs, and that affects their health too. Care to cite where did the experts take into account the massive toll of an economic recession or depression due to the shutdown?


You don't understand politics at all. Every bit of the decision was an economic issue and a social issue. Most importantly, it wouldn't matter much if we had a government that knew that healthcare is a fundamental requirement of a functional country. If the economy is all that mattered, you could go live in a fascist utopia.

At best we lose a few months of productivity and buy enough time to reduce or eliminate the threat. At the worst we overwhelm hospitals and cause massive deaths with rolling waves of social distancing.
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ltbewr
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 9:33 pm

To me Trump is being influenced too much by persons around trying to pump up the stock market to their personal advantage, for campaign bribes by pushing false hope of treatments, cures, rushing 'going back to normal'. A better stock market can help pension and retirement funds of companies, governments and individuals (401(k), IRA's) but false hope failing will crash the markets even worse.

We need a slow approach in balance in any 'return to normal'. We need to keep farms, ranches, food processing, PPE products, delivery at full steam as much as possible without putting many at infection risk or face food and other critical item shortages later this year and early in 2021, the need to hold down mass demand for hospital care, people needing to work for money to survive. No one has an decent idea of this virus's path and it may mutate to something even worse or when or if a working treatment or vaccine will appear.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:10 pm

casinterest wrote:
If the economy is all that mattered, you could go live in a fascist utopia.

They call it Sweden. Not so much of a fascist utopia last time I checked.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 10:52 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
If the economy is all that mattered, you could go live in a fascist utopia.

They call it Sweden. Not so much of a fascist utopia last time I checked.



Really,
Please post where all that matters is the economy in Sweden.

thelocal.se/20200414/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-sparks-fierce-debate-as-deaths-pass-1000
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AirWorthy99
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:16 pm

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
If the economy is all that mattered, you could go live in a fascist utopia.

They call it Sweden. Not so much of a fascist utopia last time I checked.



Really,
Please post where all that matters is the economy in Sweden.

thelocal.se/20200414/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-sparks-fierce-debate-as-deaths-pass-1000


This is what you imply when you told me I should live in a 'fascist utopia'. Turns out Sweden isn't one and they don't have these measures you support and believe are worth it the economic collapse.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue Apr 14, 2020 11:58 pm

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
They call it Sweden. Not so much of a fascist utopia last time I checked.



Really,
Please post where all that matters is the economy in Sweden.

thelocal.se/20200414/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-sparks-fierce-debate-as-deaths-pass-1000


This is what you imply when you told me I should live in a 'fascist utopia'. Turns out Sweden isn't one and they don't have these measures you support and believe are worth it the economic collapse.


Oh so you want to lie about it now right?
I implied facism. Not Sweden.

Economic collapse would have happened regardless. People would have been frightened to go out, or Travel, and the economy would have fractured right then for years. With social distancing, we have an understanding that we stay seperated for a short time, we can get the economy back much quicker. However dumb people are now pushing to restart way ahead of when it would be prudent. There are still 25,000 new cases a day, and over 2500 deaths just today in North America. If we keep at that level, then we will have 75,000 deaths in 30 days.
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Aesma
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:14 am

The US stock market didn't make sense before, now it's ridiculous. We're facing a serious recession, maybe a depression that will last years, but it's as high as a few months ago, when it was the all time high at the time !

I'm in France, here some companies have adapted quickly and never stopped working, others are shut down trying to figure it out. Unions are hell bent on not working until it is safe, whatever that means.

My company is in construction, building sites should reopen soon, with everyone wearing surgical masks. Personally I have been teleworking so far, never stopped. I could continue indefinitely, and am preparing for it, as I have a few comorbidities that mean I'd rather not catch that nasty virus.

Schools will reopen in May, which will also be the signal for companies still not open to reopen. Not restaurants though, there is no deadline for that.
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AirWorthy99
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:26 am

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Really,
Please post where all that matters is the economy in Sweden.

thelocal.se/20200414/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-sparks-fierce-debate-as-deaths-pass-1000


This is what you imply when you told me I should live in a 'fascist utopia'. Turns out Sweden isn't one and they don't have these measures you support and believe are worth it the economic collapse.


Oh so you want to lie about it now right?
I implied facism. Not Sweden.

Economic collapse would have happened regardless. People would have been frightened to go out, or Travel, and the economy would have fractured right then for years. With social distancing, we have an understanding that we stay seperated for a short time, we can get the economy back much quicker. However dumb people are now pushing to restart way ahead of when it would be prudent. There are still 25,000 new cases a day, and over 2500 deaths just today in North America. If we keep at that level, then we will have 75,000 deaths in 30 days.


Don't understand, lie about what exactly? You said that having things open for the economy is the equivalent of fascism, that's what you said. But if I mention that Sweden is doing it, you would agree that they aren't such a thing.

Proposing to have measures such as Sweden is not fascism.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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Aaron747
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:25 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Here in Kansas they have started furloughing health care workers. The hospitals are empty and no one is getting elective surgeries or getting the flu or Covid19.


This is one serious consequence of having this huge intervention into an economy and shutting it down. Health care which we will need during and after COVID19 is getting pretty hammered.

This is going on in the entire country, long term health effects of this crisis are far beyond COVID19, something the experts and other officials did not take into account when they ordered this unprecedented shutdown.


The orders necessarily avoided very unpleasant math. Now the next step is a phased reopening, with some regions opening more than others depending on level of risk. If the WH is smart, that’s what they’ll suggest. States are already ahead of the game, coordinating regionally to ensure consistency of action plans and economic priorities. The northeastern states and CA/OR/WA are working together to articulate clear plans. Other regions need to do the same.
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AirWorthy99
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:50 am

Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Here in Kansas they have started furloughing health care workers. The hospitals are empty and no one is getting elective surgeries or getting the flu or Covid19.


This is one serious consequence of having this huge intervention into an economy and shutting it down. Health care which we will need during and after COVID19 is getting pretty hammered.

This is going on in the entire country, long term health effects of this crisis are far beyond COVID19, something the experts and other officials did not take into account when they ordered this unprecedented shutdown.


The orders necessarily avoided very unpleasant math. Now the next step is a phased reopening, with some regions opening more than others depending on level of risk. If the WH is smart, that’s what they’ll suggest. States are already ahead of the game, coordinating regionally to ensure consistency of action plans and economic priorities. The northeastern states and CA/OR/WA are working together to articulate clear plans. Other regions need to do the same.


Yep, I found interesting the proposed guidelines by your Governor Newsom;

Local officials will have a “profound and outsize influence” on any any decision to lift public health orders, Newsom said. He went on to outline six key indicators that will guide the state’s decision as it considers lifting the stay-at-home order:

“The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.”


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/califor ... tions.html
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
LH658
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:20 am

rfields5421 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Why is this a Presidential problem? That’s exactly the wrong “one size fits all” level of thinking.


Because the Orange in Chief ranted several times yesterday (Tuesday) the President had the power to override ANY state laws and rules. That he could order cities and states to end stay at home orders, social distancing guidelines, non-essential business closures, etc. He was very specific that when HE gives the order to end any restrictions or guidelines that NYC and NY State must follow his orders.

Yeah, I'm sure some of the strong states rights folk like Texas Governor Abbott, and California Governor Newsome were unhappy with what he said.

Yes, Democrat Newsome is a states rights man - he wants California to be able to do anything it wants and not have the federal government have any say, but to send money - just like Abbot in Texas. Entirely different political goals, but each sees their state as a personal kingdom.



Funny part is Trump forgot he is a Republican, and Republican love less government lol, only if he knew what Republicans stand for.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:36 am

LH658 wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Why is this a Presidential problem? That’s exactly the wrong “one size fits all” level of thinking.


Because the Orange in Chief ranted several times yesterday (Tuesday) the President had the power to override ANY state laws and rules. That he could order cities and states to end stay at home orders, social distancing guidelines, non-essential business closures, etc. He was very specific that when HE gives the order to end any restrictions or guidelines that NYC and NY State must follow his orders.

Yeah, I'm sure some of the strong states rights folk like Texas Governor Abbott, and California Governor Newsome were unhappy with what he said.

Yes, Democrat Newsome is a states rights man - he wants California to be able to do anything it wants and not have the federal government have any say, but to send money - just like Abbot in Texas. Entirely different political goals, but each sees their state as a personal kingdom.



Funny part is Trump forgot he is a Republican, and Republican love less government lol, only if he knew what Republicans stand for.


If only he would read the Bill of Rights and discover there’s an amendment X.
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Francoflier
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:36 am

casinterest wrote:
However dumb people are now pushing to restart way ahead of when it would be prudent. There are still 25,000 new cases a day, and over 2500 deaths just today in North America. If we keep at that level, then we will have 75,000 deaths in 30 days.


That's uncalled for, and there are shades of gray here.

If you refer to Trump, then yes, he botched the whole thing and only wants the economy to get back up because it was his only metric for success and because he essentially only works for corporations and the rich. His only worry is reelection and he couldn't care less how many die.
That said, many nations were caught blindsided and didn't fare much better.

But that doesn't mean that hundreds of millions of people are not suffering from the economic shutdown across the World. Most people are only a handful of paychecks away from financial disaster, and that's in 'wealthy' nations. In poorer countries, many families face immediate poverty.

Measures were of course necessary to minimize the impact of the disease and reduce the burden on the healthcare system to prevent its collapse. Many of the current measures were however taken in haste and urgency, with little regard to their consequences (and that would mostly be due to the lack of preparedness and foresight). Now that the spread is under control in some places, it is time to think about the welfare of the vast majority of the population and ease the measures so a semblance of normal life can resume. The current situation is highly unsustainable and it's time to lift of the lead foot and take a more measured approach to containing the virus. There are many things that can be done to limit the spread without forcing entire populations out of their jobs and money.

A cost vs. benefit analysis of the situation needs to be made and compromises need to be found.
At what point does the cure become worse than the disease?
Last edited by Francoflier on Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Aaron747
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:42 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:

This is one serious consequence of having this huge intervention into an economy and shutting it down. Health care which we will need during and after COVID19 is getting pretty hammered.

This is going on in the entire country, long term health effects of this crisis are far beyond COVID19, something the experts and other officials did not take into account when they ordered this unprecedented shutdown.


The orders necessarily avoided very unpleasant math. Now the next step is a phased reopening, with some regions opening more than others depending on level of risk. If the WH is smart, that’s what they’ll suggest. States are already ahead of the game, coordinating regionally to ensure consistency of action plans and economic priorities. The northeastern states and CA/OR/WA are working together to articulate clear plans. Other regions need to do the same.


Yep, I found interesting the proposed guidelines by your Governor Newsom;

Local officials will have a “profound and outsize influence” on any any decision to lift public health orders, Newsom said. He went on to outline six key indicators that will guide the state’s decision as it considers lifting the stay-at-home order:

“The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.”


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/califor ... tions.html


Realistic measures guided by science, and allowing some regions that were more aggressive to reopen sooner - for example the Bay Area should be able to begin sooner than LA, which has struggled more with distancing. Gov. Newsom’s approval was 46% before the virus response, it is now over 80%.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mo ... -outbreak/
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Aaron747
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:45 am

Francoflier wrote:
casinterest wrote:
However dumb people are now pushing to restart way ahead of when it would be prudent. There are still 25,000 new cases a day, and over 2500 deaths just today in North America. If we keep at that level, then we will have 75,000 deaths in 30 days.


That's uncalled for, and there are shades of gray here.

If you refer to Trump, then yes, he botched the whole thing and only wants the economy to get back up because it was his only metric for success and because he essentially only works for corporations and the rich. His only worry is reelection and he couldn't care less how many die.
That said, many nations were caught blindsided and didn't fare much better.

But that doesn't mean that hundreds of millions of people are not suffering from the economic shutdown across the World. Most people are only a handful of paychecks away from financial disaster, and that's in 'wealthy' nations. In poorer countries, many families face immediate poverty.

Measures were of course necessary to minimize the impact of the disease and reduce the burden on the healthcare system to prevent its collapse. Many of the current measures were however taken in haste and urgency, with little regard to their consequences (and that would mostly be due to the lack of preparedness and foresight). We Now that the spread is under control in some places, it is time to think about the welfare of the vast majority of the population and ease the measures so a semblance of normal life can resume. The current situation is highly unsustainable and it's time to lift of the lead foot and take a more measured approach to containing the virus. There are many things that can be done to limit the spread without forcing entire populations out of their jobs and money.

At some point, a cost vs. benefit analysis of the situation needs to be made and compromises need to be found.


Absolutely - I think you’re on the money in how most sensible people are looking at this. The US and Eurozone have similar challenges ahead in coordinating and quickly deploying a ‘phase II’ setup where mostly normal operations can resume. Time is of the essence.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:02 am

Aaron747 wrote:
LH658 wrote:
rfields5421 wrote:

Because the Orange in Chief ranted several times yesterday (Tuesday) the President had the power to override ANY state laws and rules. That he could order cities and states to end stay at home orders, social distancing guidelines, non-essential business closures, etc. He was very specific that when HE gives the order to end any restrictions or guidelines that NYC and NY State must follow his orders.

Yeah, I'm sure some of the strong states rights folk like Texas Governor Abbott, and California Governor Newsome were unhappy with what he said.

Yes, Democrat Newsome is a states rights man - he wants California to be able to do anything it wants and not have the federal government have any say, but to send money - just like Abbot in Texas. Entirely different political goals, but each sees their state as a personal kingdom.



Funny part is Trump forgot he is a Republican, and Republican love less government lol, only if he knew what Republicans stand for.


If only he would read the Bill of Rights and discover there’s an amendment X.


Hilarious, supporting the Tenth Amendment. What’s next nullification or states rights? Democrats discovering Federalism, imagine that.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:11 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
LH658 wrote:

Funny part is Trump forgot he is a Republican, and Republican love less government lol, only if he knew what Republicans stand for.


If only he would read the Bill of Rights and discover there’s an amendment X.


Hilarious, supporting the Tenth Amendment. What’s next nullification or states rights? Democrats discovering Federalism, imagine that.


There are hypocrites in both parties - that’s one luxury of being registered independent. Federalism is not really the discussion here, unless you have more to say about how the phase II process should be coordinated and run at his point?
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:16 am

I'm glad I don't have to subscribe to anyone's BS. I miss restaurants more than a lot of people...I was used to going out for dinner 5 days a week at fine dining places, I have plenty of bartender/server friends who used to serve me, but... I'mma let the first wind of that second wave hit yall, while I'll be safely in my 5,000 sq ft DC house LOL.
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olle
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:57 am

Belgium and Sweden both adds death in houses for older people. Many countries such as UK just calculate death in hospital.

You cannot compare these numbers with each other. Only in UK there were 2000 death that is not even calculated in the official numbers.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 63621.html

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 61551.html

Comparing the 1000 death in Sweden probably compares to closer 20 000 death in UK. Last time I heard UK didi not have 10 times the popuation of Sweden.
 
tommy1808
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:24 am

casinterest wrote:
AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Really,
Please post where all that matters is the economy in Sweden.

thelocal.se/20200414/swedens-coronavirus-strategy-sparks-fierce-debate-as-deaths-pass-1000


This is what you imply when you told me I should live in a 'fascist utopia'. Turns out Sweden isn't one and they don't have these measures you support and believe are worth it the economic collapse.


Oh so you want to lie about it now right?
I implied facism. Not Sweden.

Economic collapse would have happened regardless. People would have been frightened to go out, or Travel, and the economy would have fractured right then for years. With social distancing, we have an understanding that we stay seperated for a short time, we can get the economy back much quicker. However dumb people are now pushing to restart way ahead of when it would be prudent. There are still 25,000 new cases a day, and over 2500 deaths just today in North America. If we keep at that level, then we will have 75,000 deaths in 30 days.


And let's just hope spring break won't kill the positive trend. Just about now is the time where people that got infected by, probably often asymptomatic, spring breakers should start popping up. Let's just hope spring break came and went without a few super spreaders emerging.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:03 am

Francoflier wrote:
casinterest wrote:
However dumb people are now pushing to restart way ahead of when it would be prudent. There are still 25,000 new cases a day, and over 2500 deaths just today in North America. If we keep at that level, then we will have 75,000 deaths in 30 days.


That's uncalled for, and there are shades of gray here.

If you refer to Trump, then yes, he botched the whole thing and only wants the economy to get back up because it was his only metric for success and because he essentially only works for corporations and the rich. His only worry is reelection and he couldn't care less how many die.
That said, many nations were caught blindsided and didn't fare much better.

But that doesn't mean that hundreds of millions of people are not suffering from the economic shutdown across the World. Most people are only a handful of paychecks away from financial disaster, and that's in 'wealthy' nations. In poorer countries, many families face immediate poverty.

Measures were of course necessary to minimize the impact of the disease and reduce the burden on the healthcare system to prevent its collapse. Many of the current measures were however taken in haste and urgency, with little regard to their consequences (and that would mostly be due to the lack of preparedness and foresight). Now that the spread is under control in some places, it is time to think about the welfare of the vast majority of the population and ease the measures so a semblance of normal life can resume. The current situation is highly unsustainable and it's time to lift of the lead foot and take a more measured approach to containing the virus. There are many things that can be done to limit the spread without forcing entire populations out of their jobs and money.

A cost vs. benefit analysis of the situation needs to be made and compromises need to be found.
At what point does the cure become worse than the disease?



I have pushed that we open when we can, but now is not the time. We have barely fattened the curve, and everyone wants to open the economy? We took a disease that is capable of spreading at a rate of doubling every 2-3 days, and have made it basically flat. "Opening" the economy means what exactly? Do we open Gyms, bars, restaurants, sports fields, concerts, theme parks,schools, start traveling for business on airlines, and trains? Right now we have a flattened curve that we can use to get this disease under control for the next month or so. Doing so will help identify where it is, and where it is spreading if we can get the numbers way down. There is no widespread anti-body test yet, and if we start opening up now, we will lose that flattened curve, and start getting it rising again.

When you look at the numbers, there are still places where this disease is growing by 6-10 percent per day, and at that rate it is not a flat spread. it is still increasing in coverage.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
N757ST
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 12:21 pm

casinterest wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
casinterest wrote:
However dumb people are now pushing to restart way ahead of when it would be prudent. There are still 25,000 new cases a day, and over 2500 deaths just today in North America. If we keep at that level, then we will have 75,000 deaths in 30 days.


That's uncalled for, and there are shades of gray here.

If you refer to Trump, then yes, he botched the whole thing and only wants the economy to get back up because it was his only metric for success and because he essentially only works for corporations and the rich. His only worry is reelection and he couldn't care less how many die.
That said, many nations were caught blindsided and didn't fare much better.

But that doesn't mean that hundreds of millions of people are not suffering from the economic shutdown across the World. Most people are only a handful of paychecks away from financial disaster, and that's in 'wealthy' nations. In poorer countries, many families face immediate poverty.

Measures were of course necessary to minimize the impact of the disease and reduce the burden on the healthcare system to prevent its collapse. Many of the current measures were however taken in haste and urgency, with little regard to their consequences (and that would mostly be due to the lack of preparedness and foresight). Now that the spread is under control in some places, it is time to think about the welfare of the vast majority of the population and ease the measures so a semblance of normal life can resume. The current situation is highly unsustainable and it's time to lift of the lead foot and take a more measured approach to containing the virus. There are many things that can be done to limit the spread without forcing entire populations out of their jobs and money.

A cost vs. benefit analysis of the situation needs to be made and compromises need to be found.
At what point does the cure become worse than the disease?



I have pushed that we open when we can, but now is not the time. We have barely fattened the curve, and everyone wants to open the economy? We took a disease that is capable of spreading at a rate of doubling every 2-3 days, and have made it basically flat. "Opening" the economy means what exactly? Do we open Gyms, bars, restaurants, sports fields, concerts, theme parks,schools, start traveling for business on airlines, and trains? Right now we have a flattened curve that we can use to get this disease under control for the next month or so. Doing so will help identify where it is, and where it is spreading if we can get the numbers way down. There is no widespread anti-body test yet, and if we start opening up now, we will lose that flattened curve, and start getting it rising again.

When you look at the numbers, there are still places where this disease is growing by 6-10 percent per day, and at that rate it is not a flat spread. it is still increasing in coverage.


I don’t know that we can start reopening in 2-3 weeks, but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility. Consider:

Contract the disease, average 5-7 days until symptoms appear. 2-3 days until you ask for a test. 2-3 days until the test results come back. We are 2 weeks out of when people got infected, meaning if were hitting peak death rate now there’s a good chance we are well into the backside of the wave. The big wildcard is the dramatic range of symptoms people experience. Up to 50% asymptomatic and everything up from there ranging from a soar throat to death. So I’ll agree it’d be very beneficial to have antibody tests deployed to give us an idea of how many rods have already been created against future spread. I have a friend that has it who’s symptoms are a week of diarrhea..... until recently I’ve not seen that on a the standard symptom list.
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:03 pm

N757ST wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

That's uncalled for, and there are shades of gray here.

If you refer to Trump, then yes, he botched the whole thing and only wants the economy to get back up because it was his only metric for success and because he essentially only works for corporations and the rich. His only worry is reelection and he couldn't care less how many die.
That said, many nations were caught blindsided and didn't fare much better.

But that doesn't mean that hundreds of millions of people are not suffering from the economic shutdown across the World. Most people are only a handful of paychecks away from financial disaster, and that's in 'wealthy' nations. In poorer countries, many families face immediate poverty.

Measures were of course necessary to minimize the impact of the disease and reduce the burden on the healthcare system to prevent its collapse. Many of the current measures were however taken in haste and urgency, with little regard to their consequences (and that would mostly be due to the lack of preparedness and foresight). Now that the spread is under control in some places, it is time to think about the welfare of the vast majority of the population and ease the measures so a semblance of normal life can resume. The current situation is highly unsustainable and it's time to lift of the lead foot and take a more measured approach to containing the virus. There are many things that can be done to limit the spread without forcing entire populations out of their jobs and money.

A cost vs. benefit analysis of the situation needs to be made and compromises need to be found.
At what point does the cure become worse than the disease?



I have pushed that we open when we can, but now is not the time. We have barely fattened the curve, and everyone wants to open the economy? We took a disease that is capable of spreading at a rate of doubling every 2-3 days, and have made it basically flat. "Opening" the economy means what exactly? Do we open Gyms, bars, restaurants, sports fields, concerts, theme parks,schools, start traveling for business on airlines, and trains? Right now we have a flattened curve that we can use to get this disease under control for the next month or so. Doing so will help identify where it is, and where it is spreading if we can get the numbers way down. There is no widespread anti-body test yet, and if we start opening up now, we will lose that flattened curve, and start getting it rising again.

When you look at the numbers, there are still places where this disease is growing by 6-10 percent per day, and at that rate it is not a flat spread. it is still increasing in coverage.


I don’t know that we can start reopening in 2-3 weeks, but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility. Consider:

Contract the disease, average 5-7 days until symptoms appear. 2-3 days until you ask for a test. 2-3 days until the test results come back. We are 2 weeks out of when people got infected, meaning if were hitting peak death rate now there’s a good chance we are well into the backside of the wave. The big wildcard is the dramatic range of symptoms people experience. Up to 50% asymptomatic and everything up from there ranging from a soar throat to death. So I’ll agree it’d be very beneficial to have antibody tests deployed to give us an idea of how many rods have already been created against future spread. I have a friend that has it who’s symptoms are a week of diarrhea..... until recently I’ve not seen that on a the standard symptom list.

Hopefulyy we are on the backside, but there are still areas where the disease is spreading rampantly, and is not under control. If we start lifting restrictions before the end of may, I feat this disease will rise up and we will be shutting down again in mid July. I think we need to wait it out, and get a good handle in the next 6 weeks on this disease and knock it down so we can move forward.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
tommy1808
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:35 pm

N757ST wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Francoflier wrote:

That's uncalled for, and there are shades of gray here.

If you refer to Trump, then yes, he botched the whole thing and only wants the economy to get back up because it was his only metric for success and because he essentially only works for corporations and the rich. His only worry is reelection and he couldn't care less how many die.
That said, many nations were caught blindsided and didn't fare much better.

But that doesn't mean that hundreds of millions of people are not suffering from the economic shutdown across the World. Most people are only a handful of paychecks away from financial disaster, and that's in 'wealthy' nations. In poorer countries, many families face immediate poverty.

Measures were of course necessary to minimize the impact of the disease and reduce the burden on the healthcare system to prevent its collapse. Many of the current measures were however taken in haste and urgency, with little regard to their consequences (and that would mostly be due to the lack of preparedness and foresight). Now that the spread is under control in some places, it is time to think about the welfare of the vast majority of the population and ease the measures so a semblance of normal life can resume. The current situation is highly unsustainable and it's time to lift of the lead foot and take a more measured approach to containing the virus. There are many things that can be done to limit the spread without forcing entire populations out of their jobs and money.

A cost vs. benefit analysis of the situation needs to be made and compromises need to be found.
At what point does the cure become worse than the disease?



I have pushed that we open when we can, but now is not the time. We have barely fattened the curve, and everyone wants to open the economy? We took a disease that is capable of spreading at a rate of doubling every 2-3 days, and have made it basically flat. "Opening" the economy means what exactly? Do we open Gyms, bars, restaurants, sports fields, concerts, theme parks,schools, start traveling for business on airlines, and trains? Right now we have a flattened curve that we can use to get this disease under control for the next month or so. Doing so will help identify where it is, and where it is spreading if we can get the numbers way down. There is no widespread anti-body test yet, and if we start opening up now, we will lose that flattened curve, and start getting it rising again.

When you look at the numbers, there are still places where this disease is growing by 6-10 percent per day, and at that rate it is not a flat spread. it is still increasing in coverage.


I don’t know that we can start reopening in 2-3 weeks, but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility. Consider:

Contract the disease, average 5-7 days until symptoms appear. 2-3 days until you ask for a test. 2-3 days until the test results come back. We are 2 weeks out of when people got infected, meaning if were hitting peak death rate now there’s a good chance we are well into the backside of the wave.


~18 days from first symptoms until death... so 3 ~4 weeks to see what's what.

Best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:45 pm

On the plus side, I got my IRS Covid-19 stimulus deposit today. So that will help out for a few more weeks.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:47 pm

LH658 wrote:
Funny part is Trump forgot he is a Republican, and Republican love less government lol, only if he knew what Republicans stand for.

Trump is definitely NOT a Republican, he is a MAGA and is supported by other MAGA's. He claims the clothes of a Republican but he's not. He basically Republican, like Bernie Sanders is a Democrat. It is just a means to power.

As an example, how many Republican's believe this:
"When somebody is president of the United States, the authority is total."
And:
“The governors need us one way or the other. [...] They can’t do anything without approval of the president of the United States,”
(Maybe those are Republican party platform planks I am unaware of? :spin: )

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
geologyrocks
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:17 pm

There is nothing wrong with talking about when to get the economy started again while also acknowledging the severity of the present situation.
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:24 pm

geologyrocks wrote:
There is nothing wrong with talking about when to get the economy started again while also acknowledging the severity of the present situation.

Well of course there isn't. No one is talking about the lockdown not being lifted or being permanent etc. as some like to suggest/imply. The sooner the better in general but as you note it just needs to be smart and all the issues considered.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
geologyrocks
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:32 pm

Tugger wrote:
Well of course there isn't. No one is talking about the lockdown not being lifted or being permanent etc. as some like to suggest/imply. The sooner the better in general but as you note it just needs to be smart and all the issues considered.

Tugg


Actually, I feel that this has been politicized too much just like everything else in life. But the loudest are the ones who get all the attention so the loudest usually end up being:

Group A) This isn't real! Open the economy!
Group C) All you care about is money! Lives over money!

When Group B is actually the largest but can't be heard because they don't scream enough which says...you need to balance the two.
Last edited by geologyrocks on Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:32 pm

We seem to be living in this twilight zone where we are told how contagious this is, and how many people are asymptomatic, but at the same time the death rate is so high that we have to remain shut down. Well the death rate is only based upon the number of known positive cases. The two don't line up in my opinion.

We should be reopening things in less populated areas. In my county in Kansas fewer than 5 people have died. Surrounding areas are even lower. It makes no sense for us to be on a total lock down still. Open things up in a measured way.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:33 pm

Despite a lot of reading I still have not seen anything quantitative for bringing normality back. What sort of day care, schools, what retail jobs, what kind of visiting are logical and safe first steps? How many tourists, and how to limit how many, can go back to tourist towns - the answer is likely a lot bigger than zero, say 15% of normal visitors. I have seen no good tracking of what is happening to people who are working, except pretty much what I mentioned in the opening post. Surely someone must be doing this sort of epidemiology. And if some people are able to work a couple days a week, how will that affect unemployment benefits. Farm workers are considered essential workers, but federal benefits are not available for them. So they get the virus, what are they suppose to do - die apparently?
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Aaron747
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:42 pm

geologyrocks wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Well of course there isn't. No one is talking about the lockdown not being lifted or being permanent etc. as some like to suggest/imply. The sooner the better in general but as you note it just needs to be smart and all the issues considered.

Tugg


Actually, I feel that this has been politicized too much just like everything else in life. But the loudest are the ones who get all the attention so the loudest usually end up being:

Group A) This isn't real! Open the economy!
Group C) All you care about is money! Lives over money!

When Group B is actually the largest but can't be heard because they don't scream enough which says...you need to balance the two.


Group B is pretty active here actually, it just spends a lot of time fending off misinformation, partisan nonsense, and endless straw man arguments.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:47 pm

I posted up thread about dine-in restaurants being among the hardest to restart. New customer spacing rules at the very least will impact costs and so prices will increase which will further reduce sales. And how many here want be near people eating, chewing, blabbing, etc. ?

There are just over 13M people employed in the industry with just over 1M in full service restaurants.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/252 ... staurants/

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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Aaron747
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 3:58 pm

Tugger wrote:
I posted up thread about dine-in restaurants being among the hardest to restart. New customer spacing rules at the very least will impact costs and so prices will increase which will further reduce sales. And how many here want be near people eating, chewing, blabbing, etc. ?

There are just over 13M people employed in the industry with just over 1M in full service restaurants.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/252 ... staurants/

Tugg


A conservative publication had an interesting piece on that topic today:

OpenTable, a popular online reservation service, has published state-level data on daily restaurant reservations as a percentage of reservations on the same day of 2019.

Those data show that restaurant reservations had declined precipitously in most states before restaurants were officially closed. On the day before closure orders, the median state had seen reservations fall by a whopping 73 percent. In some states, like Michigan and Georgia, reservations had already fully stopped before restaurants were officially closed. In short, patrons did not need the government to tell them to before they stopped eating out.


https://freebeacon.com/coronavirus/lawm ... o-be-easy/
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trpmb6
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:56 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Despite a lot of reading I still have not seen anything quantitative for bringing normality back. What sort of day care, schools, what retail jobs, what kind of visiting are logical and safe first steps? How many tourists, and how to limit how many, can go back to tourist towns - the answer is likely a lot bigger than zero, say 15% of normal visitors. I have seen no good tracking of what is happening to people who are working, except pretty much what I mentioned in the opening post. Surely someone must be doing this sort of epidemiology. And if some people are able to work a couple days a week, how will that affect unemployment benefits. Farm workers are considered essential workers, but federal benefits are not available for them. So they get the virus, what are they suppose to do - die apparently?


I'll go down the list.

Daycares - Most are still open and operating as essential workers need somewhere for their children to go. Our daycare has instituted a lot of rules that, frankly, should have been in place before hand anyways. My kids still go 5 days a week as my wife and I are both still required to report to work.

Schools - Most schools across the US have already shut down for the school year with many doing continued learning in the home environment. Not ideal but better than restarting for a month of school.

Retail - Most retail should begin opening now with the same limits that grocery stores have. Safe distancing, keep the amount of people allowed in the building to a % of square feet similar to grocery stores. There is no reason we can have fast food restaurants open and not a retail store if people are following simple things we are currently doing. Anecdotally, my kids need new clothes. Spring time and their shoes are getting pretty rough with playing at home a lot more.

Tourism is non essential and should continue to be so until the hot beds cool down. In fact, I doubt many will begin travelling immediately anyways so this is some what of a self-regulating industry.

Restaurants - I see this as a key indicator of us returning to normalcy. We can have restaurants open with certain precautions. Maintain half occupancy and keep 6 feet separation. This will be a case by case basis depending on hot spots and the state of course.

Entertainment - This is honestly the one that I struggle with the most. I suppose you can play a baseball game to an empty stadium and televise it. At this point I don't see any way around that. Sucks for all the people who work at the stadiums for income.

Public Transportation - I'll leave this to someone living in a state that actually has public transportation. In the meantime I'm going to do my part to help our energy sector and buy cheap gas. That being said, the last time I was in DC, I couldn't believe the way people behaved on public transit. NY was even worse. I mean no offense in this, but it really shocks me that people just willingly accept the sanitation levels I saw.

Public Restrooms - Another hot bed transfer area. I recommend avoiding and doing what you can to be as sanitary as possible.

Gyms/YMCA - One of the last items to reopen sadly. The act of physical exertion causes you to propel potential viral droplet further than normal activity. And frankly, people need to realize that being outside in the sunlight is one of the best things to slow this virus. Your spin class can wait til next fall.

You see, when you break it down by sector, you start to realize that its really not that hard to start opening certain segments of the economy. I see no reason to keep clothing stores or shoe stores etc can't be open at the same time as a Walmart. Especially considering far more foot traffic goes through a Walmart than a JCPenney (do people even still shop there? Saw they might file for bankruptcy and I said to my wife, wait I've seen this one before -insert marty meme-)
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:22 pm

I have views on all of these items, but many of us would rather seen hard data by economists/epidemiologist as to what are the baby steps, and what order various jobs should restart. Scott Gottlieb has some generalized views with his 4 phases of the shutdown. But to actually start taking steps needs a plan. Some WH advisers are working on these sorts of details.

ps - Tourism/entertainment are both essential economic activity not only in big cities as well at mountain and seashore resort areas.
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seb146
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:42 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Despite a lot of reading I still have not seen anything quantitative for bringing normality back. What sort of day care, schools, what retail jobs, what kind of visiting are logical and safe first steps? How many tourists, and how to limit how many, can go back to tourist towns - the answer is likely a lot bigger than zero, say 15% of normal visitors. I have seen no good tracking of what is happening to people who are working, except pretty much what I mentioned in the opening post. Surely someone must be doing this sort of epidemiology. And if some people are able to work a couple days a week, how will that affect unemployment benefits. Farm workers are considered essential workers, but federal benefits are not available for them. So they get the virus, what are they suppose to do - die apparently?


According to MAGAs, yes, people just need to die working because the economy is the only important thing. Just open everything up because the king says so and let people die.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/politics ... index.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherma ... sing-idea/

As far as "getting back to normal" that will never happen. A lot of people who are putting their lives at risk every day do not want to go back to the way things were. Under paid, over worked, exposed to disease every minute. Beyond that, we are going to live apart. We are going to see that some things are much more important than seeing the biggest ball of twine in Minnesota. There will still be those of us who want to explore. Those people will not be stopped when places open. But, many people will skip it.

This is the new normal.
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 7:08 pm

seb146 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Despite a lot of reading I still have not seen anything quantitative for bringing normality back. What sort of day care, schools, what retail jobs, what kind of visiting are logical and safe first steps? How many tourists, and how to limit how many, can go back to tourist towns - the answer is likely a lot bigger than zero, say 15% of normal visitors. I have seen no good tracking of what is happening to people who are working, except pretty much what I mentioned in the opening post. Surely someone must be doing this sort of epidemiology. And if some people are able to work a couple days a week, how will that affect unemployment benefits. Farm workers are considered essential workers, but federal benefits are not available for them. So they get the virus, what are they suppose to do - die apparently?


According to MAGAs, yes, people just need to die working because the economy is the only important thing. Just open everything up because the king says so and let people die.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/politics ... index.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/eriksherma ... sing-idea/

As far as "getting back to normal" that will never happen. A lot of people who are putting their lives at risk every day do not want to go back to the way things were. Under paid, over worked, exposed to disease every minute. Beyond that, we are going to live apart. We are going to see that some things are much more important than seeing the biggest ball of twine in Minnesota. There will still be those of us who want to explore. Those people will not be stopped when places open. But, many people will skip it.

This is the new normal.


I think you’re being a little dramatic on a lot of counts. Prior to this virus the airlines were putting more passengers in seats then ever before in history, so more then a couple people want to “go an explore”. As for letting people die.... that’s the whole point of this... the death rate exceeds our ability to stomach it. There will however be a point where we do need to stomach some acceptable loss, and we are buying time now to find therapeutics etc that might reduce our loss to a point where society can accept that. There’s also death from our economy not working.... suicides, drug and alcohol abuse, spousal abuse, death related to stress. Whether you like it or not society cannot exist without an economy, and the sooner we can safely start it back up the better.
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:20 pm

What is interesting is that there will likely be some states entering a lockdown situation while others are opening up. We'll see how that is addressed. Hopefully it will be intelligently handled with testing allowing only targeted areas to required to lockdown as tracing determines needed actions.

Tugg

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