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trpmb6
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 15, 2020 11:57 pm

Our governor in Kansas just extended our lock down. I am slightly torn because one of the advisors advising her literally saved my life last year. But I think we are doing more damage than good at this point. Plus they are letting places like Lowes and home depot remain open where I literally saw over 500 people congregated at today. Sigh.
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:41 am

trpmb6 wrote:
Our governor in Kansas just extended our lock down. I am slightly torn because one of the advisors advising her literally saved my life last year. But I think we are doing more damage than good at this point. Plus they are letting places like Lowes and home depot remain open where I literally saw over 500 people congregated at today. Sigh.

But then which is it:
Open up and allow anyone to be together, letting the dose have at it.
Or lock down and stop it cold but people are trapped.
Or a limited mix that allows people to do as they need for important things but otherwise requires them to voluntarily isolate per directives to minimizes the spread as much as reasonably possible?

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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trpmb6
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:31 am

Tugger wrote:
trpmb6 wrote:
Our governor in Kansas just extended our lock down. I am slightly torn because one of the advisors advising her literally saved my life last year. But I think we are doing more damage than good at this point. Plus they are letting places like Lowes and home depot remain open where I literally saw over 500 people congregated at today. Sigh.

But then which is it:
Open up and allow anyone to be together, letting the dose have at it.
Or lock down and stop it cold but people are trapped.
Or a limited mix that allows people to do as they need for important things but otherwise requires them to voluntarily isolate per directives to minimizes the spread as much as reasonably possible?

Tugg


I already outlined that up thread.

We are literally furloughing our health care workers in this state. Our hospitals are emptier than they have ever been. Ever.

We didn't just stop covid. We stopped the flu too. We saved a lot more lives this year than the reaper was willing to give up if you ask me.
 
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Francoflier
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:38 am

casinterest wrote:

I have pushed that we open when we can, but now is not the time. We have barely fattened the curve, and everyone wants to open the economy? We took a disease that is capable of spreading at a rate of doubling every 2-3 days, and have made it basically flat. "Opening" the economy means what exactly? Do we open Gyms, bars, restaurants, sports fields, concerts, theme parks,schools, start traveling for business on airlines, and trains? Right now we have a flattened curve that we can use to get this disease under control for the next month or so. Doing so will help identify where it is, and where it is spreading if we can get the numbers way down. There is no widespread anti-body test yet, and if we start opening up now, we will lose that flattened curve, and start getting it rising again.

When you look at the numbers, there are still places where this disease is growing by 6-10 percent per day, and at that rate it is not a flat spread. it is still increasing in coverage.


In an ideal World where we can all afford to stay home twiddling our thumbs for another 3 months, then no, we can't open now, or do anything. But this is not the case.

We got chased by a swarm of bees so we jumped in the lake and held our breath. Now we're running out of air and the bees are still hovering. What do we do? At what point does one problem become bigger than the other one? This will be bad one way or the other, we just find ourselves in the unenviable position of having to choose the least worst option.

Every single individual on this planet will suffer from the crisis, which will last for years to come. Countless will lose their jobs, and this will likely ripple into a secondary, even bigger, financial meltdown shortly when individuals and businesses start defaulting en masse.
And yet, with intelligent measures designed to contain the infection within the capability of the healthcare system to handle, the vast majority of people would not get infected and could keep some degree of economic activity going to soften the blow while we wait for an effective treatment and/or vaccine.

There are many things that could be done to help contain the spread, such as what is done in parts of Asia where the worst seems to be over.

Of course, it needs to be done intelligently, and I'm afraid that, in the US at least, there is nowhere near the level of brainpower in the current administration to do this properly. Cue the orange gas bag claiming that the US has 'passed the peak' when figures plainly show that it hasn't.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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Aaron747
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:10 am

Francoflier wrote:
Of course, it needs to be done intelligently, and I'm afraid that, in the US at least, there is nowhere near the level of brainpower in the current administration to do this properly. Cue the orange gas bag claiming that the US has 'passed the peak' when figures plainly show that it hasn't.


The latest call with Wall Street bankers indicates things are nowhere near intelligent:

One top executive described the call as a “shit show” that produced little of substance. Trump asked several questions, including to Moynihan about how the small business loan program was going. That program is now slated to run out of money soon.

Trump on the call praised the bravery of Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman, who got Covid-19 but recovered. Gorman said his case was relatively mild and tried to deflect the praise.

Several executives called for more Covid-19 testing, something Trump has been hearing for six weeks from anxious governors, health care leaders and lawmakers. And that was pretty much it for the Wall Street conversation, according to people briefed on the call. “It was really nothing,” one person briefed on the call said....

..“I really don’t understand how they are communicating on this,” one CEO told POLITICO on condition that neither they nor their firm be named for fear of angering the White House. “He’s got to stop talking about turning the economy back on and start talking about making people feel safe, things that are happening around testing and the health care system. That’s the only way you will really get the economy reopened over a period of time.”


https://www.politico.com/newsletters/po ... ime-488927
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
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Francoflier
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:38 am

Aaron747 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Of course, it needs to be done intelligently, and I'm afraid that, in the US at least, there is nowhere near the level of brainpower in the current administration to do this properly. Cue the orange gas bag claiming that the US has 'passed the peak' when figures plainly show that it hasn't.


The latest call with Wall Street bankers indicates things are nowhere near intelligent:

One top executive described the call as a “shit show” that produced little of substance. Trump asked several questions, including to Moynihan about how the small business loan program was going. That program is now slated to run out of money soon.

Trump on the call praised the bravery of Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman, who got Covid-19 but recovered. Gorman said his case was relatively mild and tried to deflect the praise.

Several executives called for more Covid-19 testing, something Trump has been hearing for six weeks from anxious governors, health care leaders and lawmakers. And that was pretty much it for the Wall Street conversation, according to people briefed on the call. “It was really nothing,” one person briefed on the call said....

..“I really don’t understand how they are communicating on this,” one CEO told POLITICO on condition that neither they nor their firm be named for fear of angering the White House. “He’s got to stop talking about turning the economy back on and start talking about making people feel safe, things that are happening around testing and the health care system. That’s the only way you will really get the economy reopened over a period of time.”


https://www.politico.com/newsletters/po ... ime-488927



When it comes to this administration's management of this crisis, "Deer in the headlights" is an expression that comes to mind.

Then again, why anyone thought that this man and the circus he assembled around him would be able to display any sort of leadership and competence while steering the nation through a crisis is an absolute mystery to me...

...Par for the course.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:59 pm

I am hoping some of us will have some inside dope on how particular companies are restarting work. Or how state or local governments have planning commissions to do so. If some sort of creative initiatives are not going on the situation is bleaker than I thought. Testing is important, both quality and quantity, but not enough seems to be happening. It is a key thing, the president says he is not responsible (I believe him LOL), so who else can pick up the slack. Bill Gates is kicking in another $150K, mostly for vaccines IIRC. Maybe Musk is coming up with ideas to restart Tesla making.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:53 pm

Francoflier wrote:
casinterest wrote:

I have pushed that we open when we can, but now is not the time. We have barely fattened the curve, and everyone wants to open the economy? We took a disease that is capable of spreading at a rate of doubling every 2-3 days, and have made it basically flat. "Opening" the economy means what exactly? Do we open Gyms, bars, restaurants, sports fields, concerts, theme parks,schools, start traveling for business on airlines, and trains? Right now we have a flattened curve that we can use to get this disease under control for the next month or so. Doing so will help identify where it is, and where it is spreading if we can get the numbers way down. There is no widespread anti-body test yet, and if we start opening up now, we will lose that flattened curve, and start getting it rising again.

When you look at the numbers, there are still places where this disease is growing by 6-10 percent per day, and at that rate it is not a flat spread. it is still increasing in coverage.


In an ideal World where we can all afford to stay home twiddling our thumbs for another 3 months, then no, we can't open now, or do anything. But this is not the case.

We got chased by a swarm of bees so we jumped in the lake and held our breath. Now we're running out of air and the bees are still hovering. What do we do? At what point does one problem become bigger than the other one? This will be bad one way or the other, we just find ourselves in the unenviable position of having to choose the least worst option.

Every single individual on this planet will suffer from the crisis, which will last for years to come. Countless will lose their jobs, and this will likely ripple into a secondary, even bigger, financial meltdown shortly when individuals and businesses start defaulting en masse.
And yet, with intelligent measures designed to contain the infection within the capability of the healthcare system to handle, the vast majority of people would not get infected and could keep some degree of economic activity going to soften the blow while we wait for an effective treatment and/or vaccine.

There are many things that could be done to help contain the spread, such as what is done in parts of Asia where the worst seems to be over.

Of course, it needs to be done intelligently, and I'm afraid that, in the US at least, there is nowhere near the level of brainpower in the current administration to do this properly. Cue the orange gas bag claiming that the US has 'passed the peak' when figures plainly show that it hasn't.


Well the end of your sentence is the issue. Too many governments did not handle it effectively. In the US as has been pointed out, trained doctors and nurses are being furloughed due to lack of elective surgeries or treatments, and while some are volunteering and going to needed sites and cities, there has been no organization from the government to get treatments ready.

At this point, even if we do open the economy, it will struggle as their will be competing needs. Do business people want to travel and then put their loved ones at risk? What about school now that we have gone virtual? What about jobs that won't magically recover?

At this point we should be trying to go through the end of may and form a plan for getting the virus knocked down with all medical staffs trained and briefed on best practices learned so far, and planning a limited reopening of the economy.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
anrec80
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:26 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Does the concept of “trade offs” make sense to you? A depression, created by destroying the economy, will entail it’s own deaths. We cannot go on like this for 18 months. Safety and security are not absolutes, but relative to other outcomes.

Opening up the economy is a political decision with economic and epidemiology factors.


Perfectly agree with this one. We need to realize - each and every day of this adds more and more to the costs of these measures, at ever increasing pace. Social ties between people are being torn apart. Relationships and families are under stress test. Manufacturing chains, including international ones, are being torn apart each day.

And bulk of this damage is coming not from shutdown itself, but from shutdown "until further notice". The biggest problem with these carpet bans is that it's much easier to impose one than to remove it afterwards. And before imposing, you need to communicate clearly conditions under which it will be lifted, and reasonable timelines - then people and businesses can plan for it adequately. And there has been ample of time to understand the threat, plan and prepare for it properly.

US is a big and diverse country, each state and county is different. Somewhere it's better to stick with stronger measures, in other places it's safe to reopen (or maybe even keep open) manufacturing and maybe even retail and dining, albeit with restrictions. Whatever can be done safely, needs to be done safely without any unnecessary delays.
Last edited by anrec80 on Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:26 pm

Francoflier wrote:
Aaron747 wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
Of course, it needs to be done intelligently, and I'm afraid that, in the US at least, there is nowhere near the level of brainpower in the current administration to do this properly. Cue the orange gas bag claiming that the US has 'passed the peak' when figures plainly show that it hasn't.


The latest call with Wall Street bankers indicates things are nowhere near intelligent:

One top executive described the call as a “shit show” that produced little of substance. Trump asked several questions, including to Moynihan about how the small business loan program was going. That program is now slated to run out of money soon.

Trump on the call praised the bravery of Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman, who got Covid-19 but recovered. Gorman said his case was relatively mild and tried to deflect the praise.

Several executives called for more Covid-19 testing, something Trump has been hearing for six weeks from anxious governors, health care leaders and lawmakers. And that was pretty much it for the Wall Street conversation, according to people briefed on the call. “It was really nothing,” one person briefed on the call said....

..“I really don’t understand how they are communicating on this,” one CEO told POLITICO on condition that neither they nor their firm be named for fear of angering the White House. “He’s got to stop talking about turning the economy back on and start talking about making people feel safe, things that are happening around testing and the health care system. That’s the only way you will really get the economy reopened over a period of time.”


https://www.politico.com/newsletters/po ... ime-488927



When it comes to this administration's management of this crisis, "Deer in the headlights" is an expression that comes to mind.

Then again, why anyone thought that this man and the circus he assembled around him would be able to display any sort of leadership and competence while steering the nation through a crisis is an absolute mystery to me...

...Par for the course.


Did any other government do any better excepting Taiwan who really understand the Chinese and how dangerous they were? US death per million is less than half the EU rate. Everyone is pounding on Sweden. This is unprecedented and, despite earnings, no nation actually prepared for it. Pelosi and other
Democrat twist we’re pushing the “Trump is a racist” meme when he shut of China travelers.
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:34 pm

I am trying to think how anyone, any government could have foreseen this and actually managed for it since it directly impacts our ability to be in person to person contact with dozens or hundreds of people and strangers everyday during the normal process of our daily lives.

Basically you would need everyone immediately in N95's for every public interaction for a long period of time. (At least 18 months to develop a vaccine?) And going back to my apparent favorite: restaurants, this doesn't work since by its nature your mouth must be accessible. So you are already ending one business sector effectively. Then throw in things like sports events etc. where a large number of people interact and everything starts to pile up on how to plan for decimating a social community like the USA and most other countries in the world.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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trpmb6
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:01 pm

Tugger wrote:
I am trying to think how anyone, any government could have foreseen this and actually managed for it since it directly impacts our ability to be in person to person contact with dozens or hundreds of people and strangers everyday during the normal process of our daily lives.

Basically you would need everyone immediately in N95's for every public interaction for a long period of time. (At least 18 months to develop a vaccine?) And going back to my apparent favorite: restaurants, this doesn't work since by its nature your mouth must be accessible. So you are already ending one business sector effectively. Then throw in things like sports events etc. where a large number of people interact and everything starts to pile up on how to plan for decimating a social community like the USA and most other countries in the world.

Tugg



It's one thing to plan for such events. It's another to actually implement the plan. Do you really want to be the one responsible for a massive economic down turn? What if it isn't really that bad, if you implement a shut down and things aren't really that bad then you face massive backlash. Same for the flipside of that. So you can PLAN on what would need to be done, but the actual task of following through with it - that's what you don't plan for. Its akin to the decision Truman faced when deciding to drop the atomic bombs vs full scale land invasion of Japan.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:42 pm

The range of options from complete lockdown to completely open is really decided by individuals complying or not with government directions. People will, at some point, make their own decisions. The median voter will not get COVID-19, figure out the equilibrium point on that range. It’s political and will be THE issue this year.
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:01 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
The range of options from complete lockdown to completely open is really decided by individuals complying or not with government directions. People will, at some point, make their own decisions. The median voter will not get COVID-19, figure out the equilibrium point on that range. It’s political and will be THE issue this year.

I will note that it is not "will" it is "are", as in: "People are making their own decisions. And are deciding it is best to follow the reasoned guidance provided."
And apparently that choice is partly what caused the models to be so far off.
The models underestimated the extent to which Americans would embrace the recommendations and engage in social distancing, Redfield said in an interview last week. Original estimates for compliance were put at around 50%, but in the end, “compliance to the message has been in excess of 90%,” Redield said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

Will people decide differently in the future? Of course, however they will again likely still be following guidance provided and doing so willingly, by their own decision. We'll have to wait and see. But no one of any authority is suggesting current measures will continue ad infinitum.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:30 pm

This isn't a hard concept. Governors who care more about individual liberty will open up their states soon. Governors that don't will keep the lock down in place indefinitely.
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:01 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
This isn't a hard concept. Governors who care more about individual liberty will open up their states soon. Governors that don't will keep the lock down in place indefinitely.


Right, the low education level governors that don't give a crap about old ,weak. and poor people will open first.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:10 pm

I think another hard part will be the traveling US population. A lot of people are constantly moving and going into various communities. Including those that did not necessarily need to lock down due their normal spread-out, low contact nature. As these communities are brought into normal contact with other I think there will a concern of outside infection impacting them.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:25 pm

Here is Trump's plan as distributed to the Governors.

https://www.scribd.com/document/4567512 ... from_embed
The opening requirement are going to be tough hurdle, and the testing guidelines will be the most difficult.

A lot of Governors are going to just have to call the ball. So assuming it all starts on May 1, we could see states like Alaska make the cut, but it remains to be seen.

I just worry that by opening up Phase 1 on May 1 , it will be really tough to get to Phase 2 and 3
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:26 pm

This is an interesting article at how the future of Post-COVID 19 looks—inequality.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news ... -feudalism
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:11 pm

Finally a mayor with a backbone!

Las Vegas mayor slams coronavirus shutdowns of nonessential businesses as 'total insanity'

https://www.foxnews.com/us/las-vegas-ma ... ses-nevada
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:14 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Finally a mayor with a backbone!

Las Vegas mayor slams coronavirus shutdowns of nonessential businesses as 'total insanity'

Don't know how "finally" this is, she has been saying this from the beginning, I can find reference back to March 18.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:23 pm

Tugger wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Finally a mayor with a backbone!

Las Vegas mayor slams coronavirus shutdowns of nonessential businesses as 'total insanity'

Don't know how "finally" this is, she has been saying this from the beginning, I can find reference back to March 18.

Tugg


Color me surprised. Las Vegas depends on Nonessential Businesses like Tourism and Gambling to survive? Really? I had no idea.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:28 pm

casinterest wrote:
Tugger wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Finally a mayor with a backbone!

Las Vegas mayor slams coronavirus shutdowns of nonessential businesses as 'total insanity'

Don't know how "finally" this is, she has been saying this from the beginning, I can find reference back to March 18.

Tugg


Color me surprised. Las Vegas depends on Nonessential Businesses like Tourism and Gambling to survive? Really? I had no idea.


Yeah, who cares about all of those people being laid off...
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:30 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
This is an interesting article at how the future of Post-COVID 19 looks—inequality.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news ... -feudalism

It speaks of "lower class" revolution? Well guess if the world goes online like it is in "Ready Player One" but that would be pretty sad. And I think highly unlikely.

I really do think this will mostly blow over in a year or so. (Just my gut feeling, not out to prove anything, just my opinion.)

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:54 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Don't know how "finally" this is, she has been saying this from the beginning, I can find reference back to March 18.

Tugg


Color me surprised. Las Vegas depends on Nonessential Businesses like Tourism and Gambling to survive? Really? I had no idea.


Yeah, who cares about all of those people being laid off...


I do care ,but the outrage over non-essential businesses being closed is BS. Lives are trying to be saved. I get that tax revenues aren't going to happen, but at the end of the day, this mayor is crazy, especially since LV would be ground central for the spread of the virus.

And i am calling out a Democratic Mayor here .
I get that they want the businesses open, but it would be best to wait another 5-6 weeks.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:03 am

What if it’s 5-8 Months?
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:18 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
What if it’s 5-8 Months?


Then hopefully someone will have a better plan for medical care. Currently that is not part of the plan to reopen. No mention of getting doctors prepared to handle initial surges at each state
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
AirWorthy99
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:19 am

casinterest wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
casinterest wrote:

Color me surprised. Las Vegas depends on Nonessential Businesses like Tourism and Gambling to survive? Really? I had no idea.


Yeah, who cares about all of those people being laid off...


I do care ,but the outrage over non-essential businesses being closed is BS. Lives are trying to be saved. I get that tax revenues aren't going to happen, but at the end of the day, this mayor is crazy, especially since LV would be ground central for the spread of the virus.

And i am calling out a Democratic Mayor here .
I get that they want the businesses open, but it would be best to wait another 5-6 weeks.


Yeah I understand how you feel, you think this way because its not you who doesn't have a job, nor its trying to figure out how to feed your kids.

People are hurting and the real crisis right now its not the virus. We are talking about a country of 330+ million people here.

Lets see how it goes with these new guidelines but I hope things get moving soon.
“It’s easy to confuse ‘what is’ with ‘what ought to be,’ especially when ‘what is’ has worked out in your favor.” Tyrion Lannister
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:31 am

AirWorthy99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Yeah, who cares about all of those people being laid off...


I do care ,but the outrage over non-essential businesses being closed is BS. Lives are trying to be saved. I get that tax revenues aren't going to happen, but at the end of the day, this mayor is crazy, especially since LV would be ground central for the spread of the virus.

And i am calling out a Democratic Mayor here .
I get that they want the businesses open, but it would be best to wait another 5-6 weeks.


Yeah I understand how you feel, you think this way because its not you who doesn't have a job, nor its trying to figure out how to feed your kids.

People are hurting and the real crisis right now its not the virus. We are talking about a country of 330+ million people here.

Lets see how it goes with these new guidelines but I hope things get moving soon.



Don't pretend to know how I feel.

The economy will be completely wrecked by this rush to open, as there will be stagnated openings and bankruptcies. We will be managing on ongoing depression as people avoid shopping at businesses. You think all these stores are prepared to operate with 1/4 of the occupancy they normally do? you think the airlines are going to do well flying at minimal capacities?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
anrec80
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:33 am

casinterest wrote:
Right, the low education level governors that don't give a crap about old ,weak. and poor people will open first.


Low education level governors are the ones who will be playing it tough and keep the shutdown for long. Smarter ones will be more selective and see what actually they can open and how. They are likelier to understand full picture of their actions, including economic impact. And smaller percentage of their population will be poor. Yes, this coronavirus is a serious threat, bye yet there is no reason to be paranoid about it.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:35 am

If there’s no functioning economy, there’s no functioning government. If the bond markets start refusing offerings, the Fed will run out of options.
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:37 am

anrec80 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Right, the low education level governors that don't give a crap about old ,weak. and poor people will open first.


Low education level governors are the ones who will be playing it tough and keep the shutdown for long. Smarter ones will be more selective and see what actually they can open and how. They are likelier to understand full picture of their actions, including economic impact. And smaller percentage of their population will be poor. Yes, this coronavirus is a serious threat, bye yet there is no reason to be paranoid about it.



No,
The US has very low education level governors that will try to open sooner than they should, and exacerbate he issue. South Dakota is already a prime example as they never shut down.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
anrec80
Posts: 2759
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:00 am

casinterest wrote:
No,
The US has very low education level governors that will try to open sooner than they should, and exacerbate he issue. South Dakota is already a prime example as they never shut down.


And what's happening in North Dakota? Swamped hospitals, like in NYC? People dropping dead on streets? If the situation doesn't get out of control in more or less normal circumstances - then why the need in some extreme measures?
 
frmrCapCadet
Topic Author
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:54 am

Compliance with reliable and timely public health and policy recommendation are frequently underestimated. The I-5 bridge over the Columbia River had to close for several days for needed maintenance. It was announced well ahead of time and recommendations were made. It turned out to be a non-event in that people responded appropriately - shared rides, worked from home, altered hours and alternate transportation made available etc. If there are serious water or power shortages is the public is asked to conserve it generally happens. "Ask" is not a four letter world. Ask people to do what is needed, and results can be expected. But please make sense about requests.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:06 am

anrec80 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
No,
The US has very low education level governors that will try to open sooner than they should, and exacerbate he issue. South Dakota is already a prime example as they never shut down.


And what's happening in North Dakota? Swamped hospitals, like in NYC? People dropping dead on streets? If the situation doesn't get out of control in more or less normal circumstances - then why the need in some extreme measures?


Agreed. It is both irresponsible and immoral to use one size fits all policies.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6080
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:13 am

casinterest wrote:
anrec80 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Right, the low education level governors that don't give a crap about old ,weak. and poor people will open first.


Low education level governors are the ones who will be playing it tough and keep the shutdown for long. Smarter ones will be more selective and see what actually they can open and how. They are likelier to understand full picture of their actions, including economic impact. And smaller percentage of their population will be poor. Yes, this coronavirus is a serious threat, bye yet there is no reason to be paranoid about it.



No,
The US has very low education level governors that will try to open sooner than they should, and exacerbate he issue. South Dakota is already a prime example as they never shut down.


So, the South Dakotans are dying by the train load and the mainstream media is keeping it a secret? I see. Perhaps, the MSM just doesn’t care about the rubes that provide their food in concentration camps like NYC. Have you been there? It’s pretty wide open.
 
anrec80
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:23 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
What if it’s 5-8 Months?


In 5-8 months you will have no economy left, no functioning institutions left, totally atomized society in which citizens gathered into gangs and are solving their problems by any means accessible to them.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6080
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:41 am

Which is why so many blue states are seeing large increases in gun sales. Two side benefits—these people thinking owning a gun makes them shootists (not, easy targets) AND they’re learning that the silly laws they supported are disarming them. Thousands of blue staters are finding out they just can’t walk out with a shiny new weapon.
 
Newark727
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:08 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Two side benefits—these people thinking owning a gun makes them shootists (not, easy targets)


Well it's certainly nice to know what you really think of all these vulnerable economically disaffected people you've been crying about.
 
Newark727
Posts: 2033
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 6:42 pm

Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:34 am

Anyway, it has sure been a wild ride watching all the people who were skeptical that this virus was really such a big deal two weeks ago now confidently predicting the downfall of civilization. It certainly calls into question all earlier braggadocio about the health of the economy, if we were in fact only three months away from Mad Max: The Road Warrior this whole time.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11587
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:09 pm

anrec80 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
No,
The US has very low education level governors that will try to open sooner than they should, and exacerbate he issue. South Dakota is already a prime example as they never shut down.


And what's happening in North Dakota? Swamped hospitals, like in NYC? People dropping dead on streets? If the situation doesn't get out of control in more or less normal circumstances - then why the need in some extreme measures?



North Dakota currently does not meet the requirements to start phase 1. They have an increasing rate of infections, and they do not have a downward trajectory at all. They are a smaller state, with Natural social distancing for ranchers and loggers, but at the end of the day, their towns and cities are going to be catching up rather quickly.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
User avatar
casinterest
Posts: 11587
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:11 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
casinterest wrote:
anrec80 wrote:

Low education level governors are the ones who will be playing it tough and keep the shutdown for long. Smarter ones will be more selective and see what actually they can open and how. They are likelier to understand full picture of their actions, including economic impact. And smaller percentage of their population will be poor. Yes, this coronavirus is a serious threat, bye yet there is no reason to be paranoid about it.



No,
The US has very low education level governors that will try to open sooner than they should, and exacerbate he issue. South Dakota is already a prime example as they never shut down.


So, the South Dakotans are dying by the train load and the mainstream media is keeping it a secret? I see. Perhaps, the MSM just doesn’t care about the rubes that provide their food in concentration camps like NYC. Have you been there? It’s pretty wide open.


South Dakota has picked up a large share of issues recently, and they recently shut down one of the largest pork processing plants due to an outbreak.

When you go to this page, take a look at the cases per 1 million population.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6080
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:40 pm

Newark727 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Two side benefits—these people thinking owning a gun makes them shootists (not, easy targets)


Well it's certainly nice to know what you really think of all these vulnerable economically disaffected people you've been crying about.


Just a comment on the stupidly of buying a gun and thinking you’re “.good to go”; I’m clearly not saying they’re targets but will be if they point a gun at someone who actually has an idea on using it.
 
stratosphere
Posts: 1849
Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:45 pm

Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:42 pm

casinterest wrote:
anrec80 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Right, the low education level governors that don't give a crap about old ,weak. and poor people will open first.


Low education level governors are the ones who will be playing it tough and keep the shutdown for long. Smarter ones will be more selective and see what actually they can open and how. They are likelier to understand full picture of their actions, including economic impact. And smaller percentage of their population will be poor. Yes, this coronavirus is a serious threat, bye yet there is no reason to be paranoid about it.



No,
The US has very low education level governors that will try to open sooner than they should, and exacerbate he issue. South Dakota is already a prime example as they never shut down.


I understand both sides of this but you can't keep shelter in place and businesses closed until we invent a vaccine which is what the democrats seem to want. This economy wont take another 2 months of this people are already starting to take to the streets. The cure will be far worse than the virus. I know how bad you liberals want to destroy Trump by dragging this out it's blatant on CNN and MSNBC. We need some kind of balance we for sure need more testing and it still can't be fast enough. Everyone who does go back to work still needs to social distance when they can and everyone wears masks sporting events might need to take a hiatus for longer but you cannot keep the economy shut down and 22 million people out of work you will have far more death by either suicides or drug and alcohol abuse or stress inducing heart attacks than COVID would ever cause and I am high risk so I will still be sheltering in place and doing my part long after the rest of the world goes back to work,
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6080
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:49 pm

The Mad Max scenario comes, not from the virus, but from the lockdowns in place putting 22 million out of work, gradually crippling supply chains, causing international stresses, and destroying the economy’s ability to recover. MSNBC and it’s travelers would prefer to destroy the country IF it would serve their purpose of destroying Trump. The new standard isn’t “flattening the curve”; it’s “not one death”. People die, that’s a fact, not a goal.
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:54 pm

stratosphere wrote:
casinterest wrote:
anrec80 wrote:

Low education level governors are the ones who will be playing it tough and keep the shutdown for long. Smarter ones will be more selective and see what actually they can open and how. They are likelier to understand full picture of their actions, including economic impact. And smaller percentage of their population will be poor. Yes, this coronavirus is a serious threat, bye yet there is no reason to be paranoid about it.



No,
The US has very low education level governors that will try to open sooner than they should, and exacerbate he issue. South Dakota is already a prime example as they never shut down.


I understand both sides of this but you can't keep shelter in place and businesses closed until we invent a vaccine which is what the democrats seem to want. This economy wont take another 2 months of this people are already starting to take to the streets. The cure will be far worse than the virus. I know how bad you liberals want to destroy Trump by dragging this out it's blatant on CNN and MSNBC. We need some kind of balance we for sure need more testing and it still can't be fast enough. Everyone who does go back to work still needs to social distance when they can and everyone wears masks sporting events might need to take a hiatus for longer but you cannot keep the economy shut down and 22 million people out of work you will have far more death by either suicides or drug and alcohol abuse or stress inducing heart attacks than COVID would ever cause and I am high risk so I will still be sheltering in place and doing my part long after the rest of the world goes back to work,


I will bash Trump, because he and his followers are not quick on the uptake.. They were slow to recognize the danger, and they are too quick to dismiss it. People are not going to suddenly jump start an economy when there is fear of a resurgence, and in case of this disease you can see it in the guidelines that there is no magic jump start. We are going to be at a "recovery" for 3 to 4 quarters based on the numbers, and possibly 6 quarters if a vaccine never arrives. My argument has been that we need to get those numbers way down to where we know where the disease is before we jump start, and right now we don't have it, so we are going to have a prolonged painful recovery if we start on May 1.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
frmrCapCadet
Topic Author
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:05 pm

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-s ... uth-dakota

We need not exaggerate the numbers. The maximum number of deaths most likely will peak into May at 6 per day. But the uncertainty on the upside of that is considerably higher, and can be avoided by better public health decisions.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
stratosphere
Posts: 1849
Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:45 pm

Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:18 pm

casinterest wrote:
stratosphere wrote:
casinterest wrote:


No,
The US has very low education level governors that will try to open sooner than they should, and exacerbate he issue. South Dakota is already a prime example as they never shut down.


I understand both sides of this but you can't keep shelter in place and businesses closed until we invent a vaccine which is what the democrats seem to want. This economy wont take another 2 months of this people are already starting to take to the streets. The cure will be far worse than the virus. I know how bad you liberals want to destroy Trump by dragging this out it's blatant on CNN and MSNBC. We need some kind of balance we for sure need more testing and it still can't be fast enough. Everyone who does go back to work still needs to social distance when they can and everyone wears masks sporting events might need to take a hiatus for longer but you cannot keep the economy shut down and 22 million people out of work you will have far more death by either suicides or drug and alcohol abuse or stress inducing heart attacks than COVID would ever cause and I am high risk so I will still be sheltering in place and doing my part long after the rest of the world goes back to work,


I will bash Trump, because he and his followers are not quick on the uptake.. They were slow to recognize the danger, and they are too quick to dismiss it. People are not going to suddenly jump start an economy when there is fear of a resurgence, and in case of this disease you can see it in the guidelines that there is no magic jump start. We are going to be at a "recovery" for 3 to 4 quarters based on the numbers, and possibly 6 quarters if a vaccine never arrives. My argument has been that we need to get those numbers way down to where we know where the disease is before we jump start, and right now we don't have it, so we are going to have a prolonged painful recovery if we start on May 1.


Well I am not going to defend Trumps shortcomings on this one but to be fair a lot of people underestimated this even Dr Fauci was downplaying the dangers of this back in Feb until everyone saw how bad it was. It's easy to be Monday morning quarterback after the fact. The thing we have to do now is where do we go from here to both keep people the most safe and not destroy the economy doing it.
 
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casinterest
Posts: 11587
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:24 pm

stratosphere wrote:
casinterest wrote:
stratosphere wrote:

I understand both sides of this but you can't keep shelter in place and businesses closed until we invent a vaccine which is what the democrats seem to want. This economy wont take another 2 months of this people are already starting to take to the streets. The cure will be far worse than the virus. I know how bad you liberals want to destroy Trump by dragging this out it's blatant on CNN and MSNBC. We need some kind of balance we for sure need more testing and it still can't be fast enough. Everyone who does go back to work still needs to social distance when they can and everyone wears masks sporting events might need to take a hiatus for longer but you cannot keep the economy shut down and 22 million people out of work you will have far more death by either suicides or drug and alcohol abuse or stress inducing heart attacks than COVID would ever cause and I am high risk so I will still be sheltering in place and doing my part long after the rest of the world goes back to work,


I will bash Trump, because he and his followers are not quick on the uptake.. They were slow to recognize the danger, and they are too quick to dismiss it. People are not going to suddenly jump start an economy when there is fear of a resurgence, and in case of this disease you can see it in the guidelines that there is no magic jump start. We are going to be at a "recovery" for 3 to 4 quarters based on the numbers, and possibly 6 quarters if a vaccine never arrives. My argument has been that we need to get those numbers way down to where we know where the disease is before we jump start, and right now we don't have it, so we are going to have a prolonged painful recovery if we start on May 1.


Well I am not going to defend Trumps shortcomings on this one but to be fair a lot of people underestimated this even Dr Fauci was downplaying the dangers of this back in Feb until everyone saw how bad it was. It's easy to be Monday morning quarterback after the fact. The thing we have to do now is where do we go from here to both keep people the most safe and not destroy the economy doing it.


The economy is already destroyed. People are not going to go back to rubbing shoulders again just because Trump declares the economy open. Fauci and others tried to warn of the issues ahead. Why do you think Pence issues an order that all health officials only speak through him? He wants to control the messaging no matter what, and that is not a good plan. Projections have gone down, because good decent people have been very good about social distancing, and there aren't going to be a lot of them that instantly want to go out and get back into the mix while the virus is still rampant with no good answers for treatment or vaccines.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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seb146
Posts: 22538
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:33 pm

trpmb6 wrote:
Tugger wrote:
I am trying to think how anyone, any government could have foreseen this and actually managed for it since it directly impacts our ability to be in person to person contact with dozens or hundreds of people and strangers everyday during the normal process of our daily lives.

Basically you would need everyone immediately in N95's for every public interaction for a long period of time. (At least 18 months to develop a vaccine?) And going back to my apparent favorite: restaurants, this doesn't work since by its nature your mouth must be accessible. So you are already ending one business sector effectively. Then throw in things like sports events etc. where a large number of people interact and everything starts to pile up on how to plan for decimating a social community like the USA and most other countries in the world.

Tugg



It's one thing to plan for such events. It's another to actually implement the plan. Do you really want to be the one responsible for a massive economic down turn? What if it isn't really that bad, if you implement a shut down and things aren't really that bad then you face massive backlash. Same for the flipside of that. So you can PLAN on what would need to be done, but the actual task of following through with it - that's what you don't plan for. Its akin to the decision Truman faced when deciding to drop the atomic bombs vs full scale land invasion of Japan.


Since we are playing "whataboutism" let's discuss an economic downturn because people are in the hospitals or six feed under because everything opened? Who would be to blame then? The emperor in chief has already passed the buck on anything negative. Like any good dictator. So, who's fault is it when such demands are places on We The People and We The People end up dead or so sick we can not work at all?
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