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winginit
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:07 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Finally a mayor with a backbone!

Las Vegas mayor slams coronavirus shutdowns of nonessential businesses as 'total insanity'

https://www.foxnews.com/us/las-vegas-ma ... ses-nevada


I'm genuinely curious - what do you think would change, practically speaking, if Las Vegas completely opened up tomorrow? I'm struggling to think of anything. No one is going to a show or casino anytime soon, and I suspect it's more financially advantageous for casinos and even restaurants and shops at this point to stay closed versus having to incur the costs of staffing up for a small trickle of customers
 
bhill
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:24 pm

None of this means dick until the States and Fed get serious about testing. Remember, a thing cannot be managed until it is measured. doing this is like having sex without contraception.... "It's ok honey, I know when my cycle is...." We WILL have clusters of outbreaks again and people WILL die. Question is, how many deaths are acceptable?
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Newark727
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:06 pm

bhill wrote:
Question is, how many deaths are acceptable?


Well that depends. How's my stock portfolio looking?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:03 pm

Benefit versus risk is a constant in most human activities. Federal and state guidelines are helpful, but only if informed. Had the President started ramping up test capabilities in January we might be at the point where May 1 could start seeing many go back to work. But like he says, he is not responsible. A governor does not have the clout nor the resources to ramp testing up. The federal government does.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:39 pm

The interesting split I have seen regarding "reopening" is between people who are older and now just have their retirement direct deposited into their accounts, versus those that have to go out and work to get that money deposited.

One group includes retirees en masse and maybe half of people who are established career people in corporations that can still work. The other group is basically everyone else plus the half or career people that are really missing their "normal life" (I am in that group).

The restart split disagreement seems to be about two weeks to a month, so the gap isn't that huge but the divide is pretty stark, one pushing earlier reopening, the other pushing a later, more cautious reopening. Only a few elements on each side are being hyper-opinionated but their strident and constant calls make the split bigger (one side implying "those people" will keep everyone locked down forever, the other seeming to believe everyone will then instantly and irreversibly get close together without any caution and create an uncontrolled spread, wasting all the effort to minimize the damage COVID19 causes).

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:45 pm

Tugger wrote:
The interesting split I have seen regarding "reopening" is between people who are older and now just have their retirement direct deposited into their accounts, versus those that have to go out and work to get that money deposited.

One group includes retirees en masse and maybe half of people who are established career people in corporations that can still work. The other group is basically everyone else plus the half or career people that are really missing their "normal life" (I am in that group).

The restart split disagreement seems to be about two weeks to a month, so the gap isn't that huge but the divide is pretty stark, one pushing earlier reopening, the other pushing a later, more cautious reopening. Only a few elements on each side are being hyper-opinionated but their strident and constant calls make the split bigger (one side implying "those people" will keep everyone locked down forever, the other seeming to believe everyone will then instantly and irreversibly get close together without any caution and create an uncontrolled spread, wasting all the effort to minimize the damage COVID19 causes).

Tugg



I see it as folks that think life will continue as it was ( it won't) vs those that are looking to save as many lives as possible given that the economy as we know it is trashed, and going through reformation.
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:52 pm

For those wishing for the economy to reopen, here are the most likely states and dates to do it.

https://www.wral.com/us-could-see-a-hig ... /19066479/

— With a handful of states reopening parts of their economies, a coronavirus model routinely cited by the White House warns that no state should be opening before May 1.

South Carolina and Georgia, which are leading the pack to get their economic engines humming again this week, should not open until June 5 and June 19, respectively, according to the model maintained by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. It was last updated Tuesday.

Montana has the best forecast at May 1, while the only other states that should open by May 10, the model says, are Alaska, Hawaii, North Carolina, Vermont and West Virginia. North Carolina is the only of the six states with more than 1,000 cases, as of Wednesday afternoon. About half the country should remain closed until May 25 or later, with Arizona (June 23), South Dakota (June 25), Iowa (June 26), Nebraska (June 30) and North Dakota (July 12) rounding out the bottom of the list.

The reopening dates are based on an assumption that states will have other measures in place -- aggressive testing, contact tracing, isolation, limits on the size of gatherings -- to prevent a resurgence of the virus.
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:06 pm

casinterest wrote:
Tugger wrote:
.Tugg



I see it as folks that think life will continue as it was ( it won't) vs those that are looking to save as many lives as possible given that the economy as we know it is trashed, and going through reformation.

Interesting. I must admit I do not see it that way. It seems far to "black & white" to me. To go with what I was describing, may I ask if you are still actively working or drawing retirement. I am not trying to sideline any argument just understand where people are coming from.

I think (and it seems most people I engage with follow this as well) that life will go on with changes and allowances for the reality of today. That we all need to do our best to protect the population at large, our friends and loved ones, ourselves, but there is no way, and never has been, to do it perfectly. Disease will always forever be something we live with and are impacted by. And I don't believe the economy being trashed, it is what it is, gives an "OK" to not try to not do our best for all people involved, and to help people live and live their lives.

Yesterday, happily, my city just "reopened" local city trails and parks for local resident to walk, exercise, get out into etc. Still can't do group events (duh) etc. but with proper PPE and awareness of appropriate spacing etc. I can again enjoy the simple pleasure of a walk with my family outside. These are simple and small things that are important to me and I think many others.

I am not seeking to reopen everything immediately, just for people to look at what can be done and what can be done safely and intelligently, and what best helps people while keeping the population safe. I also expect people to folow proper guidance and act appropriately and safely. I think you must trust the people, the public to do so, we have a free society and we vote freely and that is the ultimate trust, it is built into the foundation, so you need to allow that.

But that is me. I realize there are many other opinions out there. We just all need to be willing to work together, listen to others, compromise where we can, and be safe and move forward.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:28 pm

Tugger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Tugger wrote:
.Tugg



I see it as folks that think life will continue as it was ( it won't) vs those that are looking to save as many lives as possible given that the economy as we know it is trashed, and going through reformation.

Interesting. I must admit I do not see it that way. It seems far to "black & white" to me. To go with what I was describing, may I ask if you are still actively working or drawing retirement. I am not trying to sideline any argument just understand where people are coming from.

I think (and it seems most people I engage with follow this as well) that life will go on with changes and allowances for the reality of today. That we all need to do our best to protect the population at large, our friends and loved ones, ourselves, but there is no way, and never has been, to do it perfectly. Disease will always forever be something we live with and are impacted by. And I don't believe the economy being trashed, it is what it is, gives an "OK" to not try to not do our best for all people involved, and to help people live and live their lives.

Yesterday, happily, my city just "reopened" local city trails and parks for local resident to walk, exercise, get out into etc. Still can't do group events (duh) etc. but with proper PPE and awareness of appropriate spacing etc. I can again enjoy the simple pleasure of a walk with my family outside. These are simple and small things that are important to me and I think many others.

I am not seeking to reopen everything immediately, just for people to look at what can be done and what can be done safely and intelligently, and what best helps people while keeping the population safe. I also expect people to folow proper guidance and act appropriately and safely. I think you must trust the people, the public to do so, we have a free society and we vote freely and that is the ultimate trust, it is built into the foundation, so you need to allow that.

But that is me. I realize there are many other opinions out there. We just all need to be willing to work together, listen to others, compromise where we can, and be safe and move forward.

Tugg



I am still working, but at the end of the day that shouldn't be the pigeonhole. The issue is that as we reopen to previous society, we have issues. Where do kids go? Some people will need care for the kids while at work., do daycares reopen? Do we have other parents take care of the kids? do we just let it be and let folks get sick?

The answer is that at the end of the day, the more we open, the more people that will be sick. My argument in all of this is that we should push to where the curve is on a downward trend of active cases, and make sure medical care is ready for those that will get sick.

Everyone wants to pretend this is a normal sickness. It isn't., and we can actually prevent this one from killing more than it should by having adequate medical coverage available. While that coverage is unavailable we need to practice social distancing in the extreme. Most people get this fact, and this is why the rush to "open" the economy is insane. No one wants to go to big concerts, or Movie theatres, or restaurants and bars while this is going on. People won't want to load up in security lines at airports or planes. The economy is crushed right now, and we might as well try to save more folks medically.
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:30 pm

Interesting poll on how Floridians feel.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail

As states face decisions on when to reopen, Florida voters say 72 - 22 percent that Florida should NOT loosen social distancing rules by the end of April, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. About three quarters of registered voters, 76 percent, say that the state's economy should only reopen when public health officials deem it safe, compared to 17 percent who say it should reopen even if public health officials warn against it.
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:22 pm

casinterest wrote:
Tugger wrote:
casinterest wrote:


I see it as folks that think life will continue as it was ( it won't) vs those that are looking to save as many lives as possible given that the economy as we know it is trashed, and going through reformation.

Interesting. I must admit I do not see it that way. It seems far to "black & white" to me. To go with what I was describing, may I ask if you are still actively working or drawing retirement. I am not trying to sideline any argument just understand where people are coming from.

I think (and it seems most people I engage with follow this as well) that life will go on with changes and allowances for the reality of today. That we all need to do our best to protect the population at large, our friends and loved ones, ourselves, but there is no way, and never has been, to do it perfectly. Disease will always forever be something we live with and are impacted by. And I don't believe the economy being trashed, it is what it is, gives an "OK" to not try to not do our best for all people involved, and to help people live and live their lives.

Yesterday, happily, my city just "reopened" local city trails and parks for local resident to walk, exercise, get out into etc. Still can't do group events (duh) etc. but with proper PPE and awareness of appropriate spacing etc. I can again enjoy the simple pleasure of a walk with my family outside. These are simple and small things that are important to me and I think many others.

I am not seeking to reopen everything immediately, just for people to look at what can be done and what can be done safely and intelligently, and what best helps people while keeping the population safe. I also expect people to folow proper guidance and act appropriately and safely. I think you must trust the people, the public to do so, we have a free society and we vote freely and that is the ultimate trust, it is built into the foundation, so you need to allow that.

But that is me. I realize there are many other opinions out there. We just all need to be willing to work together, listen to others, compromise where we can, and be safe and move forward.

Tugg



I am still working, but at the end of the day that shouldn't be the pigeonhole. The issue is that as we reopen to previous society, we have issues. Where do kids go? Some people will need care for the kids while at work., do daycares reopen? Do we have other parents take care of the kids? do we just let it be and let folks get sick?

The answer is that at the end of the day, the more we open, the more people that will be sick. My argument in all of this is that we should push to where the curve is on a downward trend of active cases, and make sure medical care is ready for those that will get sick.

Everyone wants to pretend this is a normal sickness. It isn't., and we can actually prevent this one from killing more than it should by having adequate medical coverage available. While that coverage is unavailable we need to practice social distancing in the extreme. Most people get this fact, and this is why the rush to "open" the economy is insane. No one wants to go to big concerts, or Movie theatres, or restaurants and bars while this is going on. People won't want to load up in security lines at airports or planes. The economy is crushed right now, and we might as well try to save more folks medically.

Understood. And as I noted I am not looking to pigeonhole you or anyone, just curious about what I *think* I noticed.

One thing you mention is daycare, I don't know where you are but here where I am daycare is still open. Primarily intended for the children of "essential workers" that is a pretty large swath of people (and the only that would be continuing with it really). There are solid rules in place for how they are to operate to protect everyone but they are open (here).

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:05 am

Tugger wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Tugger wrote:
Interesting. I must admit I do not see it that way. It seems far to "black & white" to me. To go with what I was describing, may I ask if you are still actively working or drawing retirement. I am not trying to sideline any argument just understand where people are coming from.

I think (and it seems most people I engage with follow this as well) that life will go on with changes and allowances for the reality of today. That we all need to do our best to protect the population at large, our friends and loved ones, ourselves, but there is no way, and never has been, to do it perfectly. Disease will always forever be something we live with and are impacted by. And I don't believe the economy being trashed, it is what it is, gives an "OK" to not try to not do our best for all people involved, and to help people live and live their lives.

Yesterday, happily, my city just "reopened" local city trails and parks for local resident to walk, exercise, get out into etc. Still can't do group events (duh) etc. but with proper PPE and awareness of appropriate spacing etc. I can again enjoy the simple pleasure of a walk with my family outside. These are simple and small things that are important to me and I think many others.

I am not seeking to reopen everything immediately, just for people to look at what can be done and what can be done safely and intelligently, and what best helps people while keeping the population safe. I also expect people to folow proper guidance and act appropriately and safely. I think you must trust the people, the public to do so, we have a free society and we vote freely and that is the ultimate trust, it is built into the foundation, so you need to allow that.

But that is me. I realize there are many other opinions out there. We just all need to be willing to work together, listen to others, compromise where we can, and be safe and move forward.

Tugg



I am still working, but at the end of the day that shouldn't be the pigeonhole. The issue is that as we reopen to previous society, we have issues. Where do kids go? Some people will need care for the kids while at work., do daycares reopen? Do we have other parents take care of the kids? do we just let it be and let folks get sick?

The answer is that at the end of the day, the more we open, the more people that will be sick. My argument in all of this is that we should push to where the curve is on a downward trend of active cases, and make sure medical care is ready for those that will get sick.

Everyone wants to pretend this is a normal sickness. It isn't., and we can actually prevent this one from killing more than it should by having adequate medical coverage available. While that coverage is unavailable we need to practice social distancing in the extreme. Most people get this fact, and this is why the rush to "open" the economy is insane. No one wants to go to big concerts, or Movie theatres, or restaurants and bars while this is going on. People won't want to load up in security lines at airports or planes. The economy is crushed right now, and we might as well try to save more folks medically.

Understood. And as I noted I am not looking to pigeonhole you or anyone, just curious about what I *think* I noticed.

One thing you mention is daycare, I don't know where you are but here where I am daycare is still open. Primarily intended for the children of "essential workers" that is a pretty large swath of people (and the only that would be continuing with it really). There are solid rules in place for how they are to operate to protect everyone but they are open (here).


Tugg


Daycare is open, but just as everything else, the more people working, the more kids in daycare, the more chances for spreading around this disease. The issue right now is that as we open the economy, we are increasing interactions. Arguments could be made that maybe we shut down some areas too soon ( they never got to the critical mass that NY did), but these areas are also highly prone to rapid increases in rates. I think all of us can bet that the teens,twenties and thirties set, are all gung ho to get to hang with friends, date, get to work, and if we "partially" open the economy we will be opening it to travel by people that can probably be super spreaders. There are a lot of issues to work out in how we open the economy.

As seen tonight, even Trump is starting to realize that this right wing push to open may be a bit too soon.
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:03 pm

Interesting article on the downside of the SBA loans vs Unemployment benefits. Many low wage workers were better off with the Unemployment benefits.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/she-got ... or-it.html

Image
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri May 01, 2020 1:20 pm

Here is a good interactive site as states consider reopening. If we go with the phase plan, very few seem to meet the trending downwards requirement over 14 days. My own state of NC looks highly questionable.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/he ... index.html

There are quite a few states that should meet the criteria.

Here in NC there is a lot of concern from the Restaurant industry about opening at 25% capacity. The business plans just don't plan for that kind of market.

How are other localities doing?
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ltbewr
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri May 01, 2020 2:22 pm

My state of NJ, one of the hardest hit states is reopening most state parks, allowing county, local parks and golf courses as of Saturday morning. They will stay open with 50% limits on parking, social distancing and masks where appropriate, no group activities, like sports or picnicking. If people get stupid, then they will be closed again. We also have better infection rate numbers in the northern and central part of the state, poor infection rates in the southern most counties. Still in NJ, no decisions as to school and most business re-openings.

I do hope, and expect some clothing and until now 'nonessential' businesses could reopen like supermarkets, Walmart, Target with limits on the numbers of persons in stores, mouth/nose coverings required. To me it is unfair a Kohl's, Macy's or Best Buy can't be open with customers allowed in-store, but Walmart can. We could also see, as done with some retailers (like Best Buy, Staples, restaurants) with expanded curbside and home delivery. Also only opening some stores and not others where have several close to each other, only operate at limited times and number of days.

Office workers in urban areas like NYC like me will need to get back into them sometime, as many need documents, equipment, only available in-office and be reasonably safe but it is being on public transit that is the real danger. Hopefully not later than June 1st office workers can return, with limits on numbers allowed in at any one time, only allowed to work so many days a week, continue to work at home as much as possible, have to maintain social distancing, wear masks and massive amounts of soap, hand sanitizer available.
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed May 06, 2020 6:00 pm

Look like NC is going to try phase 1.
I will be interesting to see how it goes. .


https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/what-i ... /19086586/
LOCAL NEWS
What it means: 3 phases to open NC
Tags: coronavirus, coronavirus after the outbreak, social distancing
Posted May 6, 2020 9:37 a.m. EDT
Updated May 6, 2020 12:29 p.m. EDT

182

By Jessica Patrick, WRAL multiplatform producer

Starting May 8, Gov. Roy Cooper and state health officials want to reopen North Carolina in three phases. Here is a look at what you can – and can't – do.

Phase 1: May 8-May 22
Phase 1 takes effect at 5 p.m. on May 8

People should continue to stay at home as much as possible.
Many non-essential businesses and retail stores can reopen to customers at 50% capacity.
Restaurant dining rooms remain closed; restaurants are still limited to takeout, delivery or drive-thru service.
Employees and customers at all open businesses should practice social distancing and enhanced hygiene and cleaning.
Employees should be screened for fever and other COVID-19 symptoms before entering their workplaces.
People should work from home whenever possible.
Child care reopens for working families.
People should wear masks outside of their homes or when social distancing is difficult.
Parks and trails can reopen, but public playgrounds remain closed.
People should not gather in groups greater than 10.
Senior citizens and at-risk groups should avoid public gatherings.
Strict rules and restrictions stay in place at nursing homes and other care facilities, including rehab centers and hospitals. Visitors are banned.
What's open: Restaurants (takeout, delivery or drive thru only), essential stores like banks, pharmacies, grocers, and hardware stores and smaller non-essential retail businesses like clothing stores, craft stores, gift shops, book stores, etc.

What's still closed: Pet grooming, salons, spas, tattoo parlors, gyms, places of worship, entertainment venues like movie theaters, bowling alleys and performance/sports arenas and indoor dining rooms.



it appears Phase 2 could start as early as May 22.


Does anyone else think 2 weeks is too short to evaluate the response of the spread?
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri May 08, 2020 12:49 pm

Well here is the first measure in the US.

14.7% Unemployment as of May 1. With 20.5 Million Jobless.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/08/economy/ ... index.html


By all accounts, it's been a devastating two months for American workers.
The unemployment rate, which comes from a survey of households, probably undercounts the number of jobless Americans. That's because people are only counted as "unemployed" by the BLS when they have been out of work but actively searched for a new job in the prior four weeks. Or, if they were a "temporary layoff" with the expectation of being rehired within six months.



It would seem to me that this may trend down during the summer as Employers work to open the economy, and then others close as the patrons will not return due to the transmission issues of Covid.
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bmartino99
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri May 08, 2020 1:09 pm

casinterest wrote:


It would seem to me that this may trend down during the summer as Employers work to open the economy, and then others close as the patrons will not return due to the transmission issues of Covid.


I don't see where you are seeing this. In Houston, we've went out to eat 3 times this week and every restaurant has had a wait to get in. People are itching to get back out.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri May 08, 2020 1:15 pm

Restaurants, theaters, sports events, cruises, gyms, bars, some retail stores are all vulnerable. They likely are sized for a certain number of patrons. Busy days make their numbers, slack days they get by. Their best days until a vaccine comes (??) may be too small, as patrons weight the odds and decide not to go. Restaurant owners are particularly worried about this.

For my gym times I now use a few kettlebells and resistance bands, go to my old high school track for sprints, and longer runs all over town. I miss the sauna - but understand that us older folks really shouldn't crowd into them, again pre-vaccine. I may buy one. How many patrons can my YMCA gym lose, and stay open. Staff have been laid off. Wife and sister's insurance will pay for most of the dues and they may go back, my insurance may pay - so I might sign up and occasionally go, they need the cash and do a lot of good work for the community.
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri May 08, 2020 1:23 pm

bmartino99 wrote:
casinterest wrote:


It would seem to me that this may trend down during the summer as Employers work to open the economy, and then others close as the patrons will not return due to the transmission issues of Covid.


I don't see where you are seeing this. In Houston, we've went out to eat 3 times this week and every restaurant has had a wait to get in. People are itching to get back out.


Every Restaurant in Texas is at 1/4 capacity. Of course there are lines. And there will be bankruptcies as people don't return to all restaurants and all shopping centers.
Those that don't have jobs available will start looking, and will tend to drive the numbers up.
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Mon May 11, 2020 2:16 pm

Story on how the Virus is affecting Hawaii

https://news.yahoo.com/life-danger-hawa ... 02186.html

Here is a preview.

Roughly 216,000 of the state's 660,000 workers were employed in jobs supported by tourism in 2019. Airline arrivals to Hawaii have nosedived from more than 30,000 passengers per day to 756.


How will all these vacation economies survive this?
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Mon May 11, 2020 2:47 pm

Saudi Arabia is having a tough go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVz8PqxJOwA

VAT is tripled and COL allowances are being reduced for State employees.
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DL717
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue May 12, 2020 8:04 am

bhill wrote:
None of this means dick until the States and Fed get serious about testing. Remember, a thing cannot be managed until it is measured. doing this is like having sex without contraception.... "It's ok honey, I know when my cycle is...." We WILL have clusters of outbreaks again and people WILL die. Question is, how many deaths are acceptable?


At this point, people need to start doing the math on that or everyone is hosed. I’ve had a fulfilling life. I’d rather pass on than sit here and watch an entire generation get wiped out...and that’s exactly what is happening. Let the kids go back to work. This lockdown is reaching a point of stupid.
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DL717
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Tue May 12, 2020 8:10 am

Aesma wrote:
The US stock market didn't make sense before, now it's ridiculous. We're facing a serious recession, maybe a depression that will last years, but it's as high as a few months ago, when it was the all time high at the time !

I'm in France, here some companies have adapted quickly and never stopped working, others are shut down trying to figure it out. Unions are hell bent on not working until it is safe, whatever that means.

My company is in construction, building sites should reopen soon, with everyone wearing surgical masks. Personally I have been teleworking so far, never stopped. I could continue indefinitely, and am preparing for it, as I have a few comorbidities that mean I'd rather not catch that nasty virus.

Schools will reopen in May, which will also be the signal for companies still not open to reopen. Not restaurants though, there is no deadline for that.


The only reason the stock market is holding right now is because it’s not poor life choices causing this. It’s a virus. The stock market problems will come when the dust starts to settle and businesses start to implode in the aftermath.
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed May 20, 2020 1:01 pm

DL717 wrote:
Aesma wrote:
The US stock market didn't make sense before, now it's ridiculous. We're facing a serious recession, maybe a depression that will last years, but it's as high as a few months ago, when it was the all time high at the time !

I'm in France, here some companies have adapted quickly and never stopped working, others are shut down trying to figure it out. Unions are hell bent on not working until it is safe, whatever that means.

My company is in construction, building sites should reopen soon, with everyone wearing surgical masks. Personally I have been teleworking so far, never stopped. I could continue indefinitely, and am preparing for it, as I have a few comorbidities that mean I'd rather not catch that nasty virus.

Schools will reopen in May, which will also be the signal for companies still not open to reopen. Not restaurants though, there is no deadline for that.


The only reason the stock market is holding right now is because it’s not poor life choices causing this. It’s a virus. The stock market problems will come when the dust starts to settle and businesses start to implode in the aftermath.


The stock market may be stable, but we are in for a long recovery.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/raulelizal ... -6-charts/

The poor life choices may actually be reopening too early.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed May 20, 2020 4:41 pm

This may have been covered already, but to all those "OPEN IT NOW" people...do you not realize that the customers are not coming back at 100% levels immediately? At the onset of this some of the economic talking head-idiots on TV were talking about a v-shaped recovery. No, this will be between a u and an L-shaped one.

And people, stop abusing working-class retail store employees by refusing to wear a mask and then videoing them and causing a scene about it.
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 306
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed May 20, 2020 5:49 pm

Pellegrine wrote:
This may have been covered already, but to all those "OPEN IT NOW" people...do you not realize that the customers are not coming back at 100% levels immediately? At the onset of this some of the economic talking head-idiots on TV were talking about a v-shaped recovery. No, this will be between a u and an L-shaped one.

And people, stop abusing working-class retail store employees by refusing to wear a mask and then videoing them and causing a scene about it.


Interesting... so you care about working-class retail store employees, but you do not want to open retail stores?

One report said India's economy (which feeds its kids) will go -45% this year... that's a lot of hungry kids.

Elderly Americans (or Europeans), who are perhaps the world's wealthiest demographic groups, are not my #1 humanitarian concern. They just aren't. I love and treasure a number of them, but this is a tough world and I fully expect tough things to happen to a lot of people, even our wealthy. Baby Boomers and 70+ have had a really great ride, and we just put down a $5 trillion... gigantic... almost impossible sacrifice to show them yet more respect and support. But does life go on? That's the question.

Yes... life goes on.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed May 20, 2020 6:20 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
This may have been covered already, but to all those "OPEN IT NOW" people...do you not realize that the customers are not coming back at 100% levels immediately? At the onset of this some of the economic talking head-idiots on TV were talking about a v-shaped recovery. No, this will be between a u and an L-shaped one.

And people, stop abusing working-class retail store employees by refusing to wear a mask and then videoing them and causing a scene about it.


Interesting... so you care about working-class retail store employees, but you do not want to open retail stores?

One report said India's economy (which feeds its kids) will go -45% this year... that's a lot of hungry kids.

Elderly Americans (or Europeans), who are perhaps the world's wealthiest demographic groups, are not my #1 humanitarian concern. They just aren't. I love and treasure a number of them, but this is a tough world and I fully expect tough things to happen to a lot of people, even our wealthy. Baby Boomers and 70+ have had a really great ride, and we just put down a $5 trillion... gigantic... almost impossible sacrifice to show them yet more respect and support. But does life go on? That's the question.

Yes... life goes on.


No, I do not want to open retail stores and restaurants. Those people should get unemployment through the end of July and then reevaluate then. I am also merely making the point that someone like a server or a bartender isn't going back into a 100% salary situation.

All these "OPEN IT NOW" people (with the exception of the small business owners) are people concerned with getting their own hair cut, and getting their own meal served at a restaurant. They are entirely selfish. They are not concerned with the working-class.
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed May 20, 2020 6:22 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
This may have been covered already, but to all those "OPEN IT NOW" people...do you not realize that the customers are not coming back at 100% levels immediately? At the onset of this some of the economic talking head-idiots on TV were talking about a v-shaped recovery. No, this will be between a u and an L-shaped one.

And people, stop abusing working-class retail store employees by refusing to wear a mask and then videoing them and causing a scene about it.


Interesting... so you care about working-class retail store employees, but you do not want to open retail stores?

One report said India's economy (which feeds its kids) will go -45% this year... that's a lot of hungry kids.

Elderly Americans (or Europeans), who are perhaps the world's wealthiest demographic groups, are not my #1 humanitarian concern. They just aren't. I love and treasure a number of them, but this is a tough world and I fully expect tough things to happen to a lot of people, even our wealthy. Baby Boomers and 70+ have had a really great ride, and we just put down a $5 trillion... gigantic... almost impossible sacrifice to show them yet more respect and support. But does life go on? That's the question.

Yes... life goes on.



$5 trillion is not gigantic. Look at tax receipts per annum for the US. It is not "gigantic". $50 trillion would be "gigantic".
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed May 20, 2020 6:35 pm

Pellegrine wrote:
This may have been covered already, but to all those "OPEN IT NOW" people...do you not realize that the customers are not coming back at 100% levels immediately? At the onset of this some of the economic talking head-idiots on TV were talking about a v-shaped recovery. No, this will be between a u and an L-shaped one.

And people, stop abusing working-class retail store employees by refusing to wear a mask and then videoing them and causing a scene about it.



This is going to be the unknown part of the recovery

I know my friends and family aren't rushing to a resort or out to eat dinner anytime soon.

I will keep with Amazon and move on for awhile.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed May 20, 2020 6:37 pm

casinterest wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
This may have been covered already, but to all those "OPEN IT NOW" people...do you not realize that the customers are not coming back at 100% levels immediately? At the onset of this some of the economic talking head-idiots on TV were talking about a v-shaped recovery. No, this will be between a u and an L-shaped one.

And people, stop abusing working-class retail store employees by refusing to wear a mask and then videoing them and causing a scene about it.



This is going to be the unknown part of the recovery

I know my friends and family aren't rushing to a resort or out to eat dinner anytime soon.

I will keep with Amazon and move on for awhile.


I'm not rushing out to do anything. I'm watching those numbers tick up.
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
ltbewr
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Wed May 20, 2020 8:06 pm

I am surprised that liability insurers for businesses haven't advised policy holders that their insurance won't cover claims related to pandemics or epidemics. Many businesses won't open, even under limited rules, as don't want to lose their personal assets or business ruined by lawsuits that won't be covered by their insurance. A number of Republicans in DC tried to get provisions in Federal emergency funding bills for businesses that businesses be immune from liability from those claiming an exposure to Covid-19, similar laws have also been sought in states. Some sadly have to open up, despite the risk as badly need revenues to survive on, pay rent, other expenses. Until it is 'safe' by a vaccine or herd immunity as to Covid-19, battles will continue between public health and the economy.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 306
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu May 21, 2020 2:36 pm

ltbewr wrote:
I am surprised that liability insurers for businesses haven't advised policy holders that their insurance won't cover claims related to pandemics or epidemics. Many businesses won't open, even under limited rules, as don't want to lose their personal assets or business ruined by lawsuits that won't be covered by their insurance. A number of Republicans in DC tried to get provisions in Federal emergency funding bills for businesses that businesses be immune from liability from those claiming an exposure to Covid-19, similar laws have also been sought in states. Some sadly have to open up, despite the risk as badly need revenues to survive on, pay rent, other expenses. Until it is 'safe' by a vaccine or herd immunity as to Covid-19, battles will continue between public health and the economy.


Without public health, there is no economy (although COVID-19 is just one factor in public health, and not the biggest factor in it).

And without an economy, there is no public health. If businesses do not have liability protection, many will just close, and waves of homelessness and starvation will become routine, just as they are in many nations that don't have an economy.

A good example is grocery stores. If tort lawyers patrol grocery stores and sue them out of existence, pretty soon no one would invest to open another grocery store. Within 14 days, starvation and deaths would begin. Food distribution isn't trivially easy for a government to do. Many governments have believed they can easily distribute food. Ths iwas a tragic mistake. It is not an exaggeration to say that a very large percentage of the population dies (even healthy people) in this scenario. Perhaps 40%.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu May 21, 2020 3:02 pm

The bigger problem for restaurants, museums, sports events, gyms, public transportation, theaters, even churches is that polling indicates a high percent of people are not going to return until a vaccine comes along. Their business model fails. People will and are figuring out how to eat, live, entertain themselves, visit close friends and relatives, work, and travel while minimizing contact.

The serious problem is the safety of lower paid essential workers. There are Republican and Democratic solutions, as well as the 'always with us' plutocrats who tweet about the nobility of poor people dying for their benefit.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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seb146
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu May 21, 2020 4:43 pm

I think many businesses are seeing they can still make money with fewer employees. I think the unemployment rate will remain high and wages will remain stagnant.

I wonder how many of these "open now" types have a job? How many will be offered a job in the next few months so they can go to the bars again? What will they do when their unemployment runs out or when they realize the extra pay they have been getting ends?
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2752
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu May 21, 2020 6:45 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
The bigger problem for restaurants, museums, sports events, gyms, public transportation, theaters, even churches is that polling indicates a high percent of people are not going to return until a vaccine comes along. Their business model fails. People will and are figuring out how to eat, live, entertain themselves, visit close friends and relatives, work, and travel while minimizing contact.

Many will still stay away, but many won't. Far better to be down 50% than 90%.
 
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Tugger
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu May 21, 2020 7:42 pm

California continues to be somewhat smart about things and the "re-opening" process. San Diego county is one of several that have requested and been permitted to reopen, to move through "stage 2". As such restaurants and other retailers will be allowed to open following appropriate safety procedures etc.

The county Department of Environmental Health had previously notified restaurant operators of what steps they will be required to take before reopening. Among the measures are: conducting thermal or temperature scans of employees daily, spacing all tables 6 feet apart or, if unmovable, installing a barrier between tables; requiring diners to wear facial coverings when not seated at their table; and disinfecting restrooms and “high contact touch points” frequently. Tableside food preparation and self-serve buffets and salad bars are prohibited.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/bu ... estaurants

Other counties in CA are also granted the same.

Doing it right.

Tugg
I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
There are many kinds of sentences that we think state facts about the world but that are really just expressions of our attitudes. - F. Ramsey
 
frmrCapCadet
Topic Author
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu May 21, 2020 8:03 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The bigger problem for restaurants, museums, sports events, gyms, public transportation, theaters, even churches is that polling indicates a high percent of people are not going to return until a vaccine comes along. Their business model fails. People will and are figuring out how to eat, live, entertain themselves, visit close friends and relatives, work, and travel while minimizing contact.

Many will still stay away, but many won't. Far better to be down 50% than 90%.


Many of those places cannot survive with only 50% of former patrons inclined to come. Definitely not 'far better', more like maybe better.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
flyguy89
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu May 21, 2020 8:21 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
The bigger problem for restaurants, museums, sports events, gyms, public transportation, theaters, even churches is that polling indicates a high percent of people are not going to return until a vaccine comes along. Their business model fails. People will and are figuring out how to eat, live, entertain themselves, visit close friends and relatives, work, and travel while minimizing contact.

Many will still stay away, but many won't. Far better to be down 50% than 90%.


Many of those places cannot survive with only 50% of former patrons inclined to come. Definitely not 'far better', more like maybe better.

Many may not be able to, but many will. When one spells certain liquidation for all, I'd call the alternative to that far better.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Thu May 21, 2020 10:20 pm

ltbewr wrote:
I am surprised that liability insurers for businesses haven't advised policy holders that their insurance won't cover claims related to pandemics or epidemics. Many businesses won't open, even under limited rules, as don't want to lose their personal assets or business ruined by lawsuits that won't be covered by their insurance. A number of Republicans in DC tried to get provisions in Federal emergency funding bills for businesses that businesses be immune from liability from those claiming an exposure to Covid-19, similar laws have also been sought in states. Some sadly have to open up, despite the risk as badly need revenues to survive on, pay rent, other expenses. Until it is 'safe' by a vaccine or herd immunity as to Covid-19, battles will continue between public health and the economy.



Can you sue if you get the flu or pneumonia? Why should this be any different?
 
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seb146
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri May 22, 2020 5:07 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:

Many will still stay away, but many won't. Far better to be down 50% than 90%.


Many of those places cannot survive with only 50% of former patrons inclined to come. Definitely not 'far better', more like maybe better.

Many may not be able to, but many will. When one spells certain liquidation for all, I'd call the alternative to that far better.


A lot of people on unemployment do not know how long that will last. They have to save instead of going out like we used to. So, that revenue stream is gone from businesses. Some of these places were barely getting by before. If their revenue is cut the way it is being cut now, it is game over. How is that far better? Business close, that creates more unemployment, which decreases revenue streams which means more lay offs which means more unemployment.

But, at least stocks are up and oil is coming back........
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
flyguy89
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri May 22, 2020 6:11 pm

seb146 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:

Many of those places cannot survive with only 50% of former patrons inclined to come. Definitely not 'far better', more like maybe better.

Many may not be able to, but many will. When one spells certain liquidation for all, I'd call the alternative to that far better.


A lot of people on unemployment do not know how long that will last. They have to save instead of going out like we used to. So, that revenue stream is gone from businesses. Some of these places were barely getting by before. If their revenue is cut the way it is being cut now, it is game over. How is that far better?

Because what's the alternative? Almost certain liquidation for most businesses.
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri May 22, 2020 6:28 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Many may not be able to, but many will. When one spells certain liquidation for all, I'd call the alternative to that far better.


A lot of people on unemployment do not know how long that will last. They have to save instead of going out like we used to. So, that revenue stream is gone from businesses. Some of these places were barely getting by before. If their revenue is cut the way it is being cut now, it is game over. How is that far better?

Because what's the alternative? Almost certain liquidation for most businesses.


Well, if we had a government that was capable of leading and helping all of us while we work to contain the disease it wouldn't be a problem. However with only 30-45% of Americans ready to go out and support businesses, it seems that half the jobs and businesses will be lost anyway.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
flyguy89
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri May 22, 2020 7:00 pm

casinterest wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
seb146 wrote:

A lot of people on unemployment do not know how long that will last. They have to save instead of going out like we used to. So, that revenue stream is gone from businesses. Some of these places were barely getting by before. If their revenue is cut the way it is being cut now, it is game over. How is that far better?

Because what's the alternative? Almost certain liquidation for most businesses.


Well, if we had a government that was capable of leading and helping all of us while we work to contain the disease it wouldn't be a problem.

Literally every other country in the Western world is staring down the same issue. Trump's handling has been abysmal, but the general impact of the virus is cutting deep everywhere, so no it wouldn't "not be a problem."

casinterest wrote:
However with only 30-45% of Americans ready to go out and support businesses, it seems that half the jobs and businesses will be lost anyway.

So throw the other half out of work, too?
 
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casinterest
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri May 22, 2020 7:20 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Because what's the alternative? Almost certain liquidation for most businesses.


Well, if we had a government that was capable of leading and helping all of us while we work to contain the disease it wouldn't be a problem.

Literally every other country in the Western world is staring down the same issue. Trump's handling has been abysmal, but the general impact of the virus is cutting deep everywhere, so no it wouldn't "not be a problem."

casinterest wrote:
However with only 30-45% of Americans ready to go out and support businesses, it seems that half the jobs and businesses will be lost anyway.

So throw the other half out of work, too?


The idea would be to have a government capable of some restraint to save all the businesses. How good is it for all of us , if good companies go under due to poor support.

Despite the President wanting it, how many are willing to go to a movie theater , convention, fly on a plane, use a bus, or sit in a crowded restaurant or church?
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
flyguy89
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Fri May 22, 2020 7:55 pm

casinterest wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
casinterest wrote:

Well, if we had a government that was capable of leading and helping all of us while we work to contain the disease it wouldn't be a problem.

Literally every other country in the Western world is staring down the same issue. Trump's handling has been abysmal, but the general impact of the virus is cutting deep everywhere, so no it wouldn't "not be a problem."

casinterest wrote:
However with only 30-45% of Americans ready to go out and support businesses, it seems that half the jobs and businesses will be lost anyway.

So throw the other half out of work, too?


The idea would be to have a government capable of some restraint to save all the businesses. How good is it for all of us , if good companies go under due to poor support.

Despite the President wanting it, how many are willing to go to a movie theater , convention, fly on a plane, use a bus, or sit in a crowded restaurant or church?

The truth is that we don't know. I can tell you from my line of work in the travel/tourism sector that we are now seeing advanced sales perk back up toward pre-Covid levels. Our understanding of the virus has evolved considerably as we learn more about it (e.g. airborne rather than surface contamination is the main culprit, outdoor recreation and dining are much lower risk, etc.). Certainly many businesses that can't accommodate social distancing will remain impacted, but others are adapting and could see reasonable business return.

If there's one thing I might agree with Trump on, it's his resistance to a one-size-fits-all approach. I think there's tremendous value in the states responding to their varying levels of outbreak within some guidelines, and with federal backing in providing resources/assistance where needed....but characteristically he, of course, can't stick to a plan and just vacillates back and forth between leaving the states out to dry and "I am the ultimate authority. "
 
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seb146
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Sat May 23, 2020 3:39 pm

flyguy89 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Many may not be able to, but many will. When one spells certain liquidation for all, I'd call the alternative to that far better.


A lot of people on unemployment do not know how long that will last. They have to save instead of going out like we used to. So, that revenue stream is gone from businesses. Some of these places were barely getting by before. If their revenue is cut the way it is being cut now, it is game over. How is that far better?

Because what's the alternative? Almost certain liquidation for most businesses.


So the few at the top get theirs and everyone else can just shut up? Yes, other countries are going through this, too but not as bad. I think (this is my opinion only) that other countries understand that the rich will survive but they are few so the poor are the ones who need help in times like these. What is the saying about rising waters lifts all boats? I believe we are where we are today because of decades of trickle down economics. We would not be in this position if we had trickle up economics. All we got was the down. Decades later, we are still waiting for the trickle.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
flyguy89
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Sat May 23, 2020 7:17 pm

seb146 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
seb146 wrote:

A lot of people on unemployment do not know how long that will last. They have to save instead of going out like we used to. So, that revenue stream is gone from businesses. Some of these places were barely getting by before. If their revenue is cut the way it is being cut now, it is game over. How is that far better?

Because what's the alternative? Almost certain liquidation for most businesses.


So the few at the top get theirs and everyone else can just shut up?

What are you even talking about? Because I'm talking about small business.
 
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seb146
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Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Sun May 24, 2020 12:05 am

flyguy89 wrote:
seb146 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
Because what's the alternative? Almost certain liquidation for most businesses.


So the few at the top get theirs and everyone else can just shut up?

What are you even talking about? Because I'm talking about small business.


Right. Small businesses like Ruth's Chris Steak House, Potbelly, and Hallador Energy.

Including REAL small businesses, they will not be able to survive this. Not only because giant corporations took all the money, but they can not afford the back rent and the restocking and all the startup they need to open.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!
 
flyguy89
Posts: 2752
Joined: Tue Feb 24, 2009 6:43 pm

Re: How the Economy Recovers and We Get Back to Work

Sun May 24, 2020 12:26 am

seb146 wrote:
flyguy89 wrote:
seb146 wrote:

So the few at the top get theirs and everyone else can just shut up?

What are you even talking about? Because I'm talking about small business.


Right. Small businesses like Ruth's Chris Steak House, Potbelly, and Hallador Energy.

Including REAL small businesses, they will not be able to survive this. Not only because giant corporations took all the money, but they can not afford the back rent and the restocking and all the startup they need to open.

Dude, stay on topic here. We started reopening two weeks ago in my state (non-essential retail and restaurants could reopen at half-capacity). I've seen and already patronized many of the "real" small businesses that have reopened. Whether they'll ultimately survive is a different question, but at least now they have the chance along with curbside pickup to try to survive versus the prior lockdown status quo of only big box retailers being allowed to stay open.

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Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos