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Waterbomber2
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Stock market total disconnect

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:38 pm

The stock market is totally disconnected from our economic realities these days.
Stocks are going up and up despite that we are facing the worst economic destruction of modern history.

Some comments on Yahoo Finance suggest that this is a widespread sentiment.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-ma ... 36152.html

NO conviction in the market S&P, right now, is at 21% of AVERAGE daily volume. No one is buying but the FED.


I do not understand the logic of the stock market and the daily fluctuations. COVID 19 has had a real impact on people and jobs. In 2018 the market dropped 25% on a small fed rate hike and cannot be compared to the current situation. However, I ran some simple calculations on the value of S&P earnings assuming: this year's S&P earnings will be 25% of last year, five years to return to $137, then 5% growth and 8% discount factor. To my absolute surprise, the S&P is reasonably valued if you think it was fairly valued before the COVID 19 outbreak. My view is that the market was 10% overvalued then, and is about the same now.

Surging Unemployment + JPOW's Infinite printer = Bull
Increase in Coronavirus cases + JPOW's Infinite printer = Bull
Complete destruction of supply chain + JPOW's infinite printer = Bull
WW3 + JPOW's Infinite printer = Bull
Huge asteroid hits Earth and half of the humanity gets wiped out + JPOW's Infinite printer = ALL-TIME HIGH BULL RALLY



The market is pricing in a perfect economic comeback in the next few months. This thing is going to drop like a rock if that doesn't transpire. I personally have about 20% in stocks but mostly on the sidelines in cash. We are a long ways from out of the woods.



We have oil at $11 and the economy is mostly shut down but stock market is within few percentage points of ALL TIME HIGHS.

Some one else see the disconnect here?



Why are governments propping Wall Street rather than Main Street?
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:08 pm

One of the peculiarities affecting the stock market is that the world is awash with money, and there is no place to put it. Bonds are low priced because they are safe (at least US and some other economies). Stocks are good if you don't need the money in the short term. What is driving the stock market up are the companies people think are going to survive for the next twenty years or so.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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moo
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:21 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:

Why are governments propping Wall Street rather than Main Street?


Because of the future.

Not "propping up Main Street" means a short term hardship - businesses and jobs are fungible things, they come and they go and someone will always have a go at a business after the crisis is over. The government is investing in immediate support for people (unemployment benefits, the Trump cheque, freeze on mortgages, rents, evictions etc) to try and get them through the immediate hardship, after which they will rebuild.

But most people have much more money in their retirement funds than in their bank accounts - and those funds are propped up by Wall Street. Let Wall Street fail and those funds fail, and all of a sudden your "immediate" crisis becomes an "extended" crisis when people hit retirement and suddenly have no funds available. Wall Street is a great money maker, but its not a good money store - once the value is lost, most funds cannot just sit around at 5% of their original worth and survive, they will collapse and they will never recover the 95% they lost. Which means all those retirement accounts which were investing your money are also now worthless.

By letting Wall Street fail, you cause a huge problem for the government down the road. So you don't let Wall Street fail.

Thats my take, I may be completely wrong, but hey.
 
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casinterest
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:36 pm

There are big winners in the stock market right now, and there are still dividend paying stocks. This may all wash out over time, but with the optimism that Governments are working to restart some semblance of normal. there will be winners. I still think we need a vaccine and a better medical plan going forward, but at this time , the market will reward naivety.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
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trpmb6
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:38 am

The stock market does not pace the current economy but the future economy. It is all based on future earnings. It has priced in the current earnings, hence the 30% drop in March. The drop was due to two things, concerns that the government/fed would not respond and earnings for the first two quarters of 2020 would drop. Those are priced in. Since the government and FED responded well and the virus response appears to be working the stock market, aka investors, are looking to what the future will hold. Investors concern themselves with future growth in the long term to make money. I am one such person and have bought heavily recently because I know this virus, while terrible, will not hurt long term growth.

Of more concern is the oil markets. It takes a long time to start and stop the oil machine. There is nowhere to store the oil right now. Which is actually really shocking. With nowhere to store it production will stop and then it will be slow to restart which means that while oil is dirt cheap (actually they will pay you to take it right now on 4/20) it is going to be very expensive in 2 months. (imo)
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:03 am

trpmb6 wrote:
The stock market does not pace the current economy but the future economy. It is all based on future earnings. It has priced in the current earnings, hence the 30% drop in March. The drop was due to two things, concerns that the government/fed would not respond and earnings for the first two quarters of 2020 would drop. Those are priced in. Since the government and FED responded well and the virus response appears to be working the stock market, aka investors, are looking to what the future will hold. Investors concern themselves with future growth in the long term to make money. I am one such person and have bought heavily recently because I know this virus, while terrible, will not hurt long term growth.

Of more concern is the oil markets. It takes a long time to start and stop the oil machine. There is nowhere to store the oil right now. Which is actually really shocking. With nowhere to store it production will stop and then it will be slow to restart which means that while oil is dirt cheap (actually they will pay you to take it right now on 4/20) it is going to be very expensive in 2 months. (imo)


This is what we hear "financial experts" say these days.
"The stock market is forward looking, it's already priced in, etc..."

Central banks across the world have been very responsive, that is true.
The problem with all that liquidity is that it's not in the hands of consumers but in the hands of the production. In the hands of supply rather than demand.
For instance, what good are billions in bail-out money in airlines' bank accounts when they are using them to fly around empty aircraft? They are literally burning the bail-out money, the money is not producing new money, it's the same as putting it into a furnace to keep everyone warm.
Let's bail-out hotels and restaurants so they can stay closed longer?
The problem with this is that while this looks better on paper, it totally destroys the prospects of a recovery as it causes inflation.

For example, let's say airline A operates a fleet of 500 aircraft with direct and indirect jobs to match. It receives 10 billion in bail-out money including loans.
By September 2020, the problem is gone, and the airline is open for business again.
Said airline would have burned through the 10 billion and will be back at today's level of liquidity, with the difference that it will have more debt.
Still, they are ready to fly again.
>Small problem now. Consumers have also burned through their little unemployment and stimulus checks and have no money and definitely no urge to buy tickets.
Without proceeds from ticket sales, in absence of more stimulus, airlines will have to downsize massively.
So all that stimulus money goes wasted.

This is the problem with a stimulus where you only keep the supply side alive.
It just kicks the can further down the line, but the inevitable keeps coming back.

Propping huge capital into stock markets so that the stock price remains high, rather than propping demand so that it will be converted into value at a later time, to creep back into stocks, you are creating a very bubble called dangerously high inflation, potentially leading to hyperinflation.



We have all the ingredients for hyperinflation:

-a trigger event: Coronavirus pandemic
-Supply restricted by supply chain problems, supply and demand disconnect, food product exporting countries starting to restrict exports (Ex. India-Rice exports)
-Unlimited liquidity through huge stimulus to both supply and demand side.
-Huge government deficits ahead, no consumption so no VAT/sales tax income, personal and business tax revenue down. Governments are essentially becoming insolvent.
-Price of basic necessities, ie food and PPE starting to rise. Exacerbated by expectation of inflation.
-Overvalued stock markets lead by a political agenda distorting the value of financial markets.



"A stimulus like there has never been one before" may sound good but if there were no consequences to high inflation, Venezuela would have been one of the richest countries in the world by now.


moo wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Why are governments propping Wall Street rather than Main Street?


Because of the future.

Not "propping up Main Street" means a short term hardship - businesses and jobs are fungible things, they come and they go and someone will always have a go at a business after the crisis is over. The government is investing in immediate support for people (unemployment benefits, the Trump cheque, freeze on mortgages, rents, evictions etc) to try and get them through the immediate hardship, after which they will rebuild.

But most people have much more money in their retirement funds than in their bank accounts - and those funds are propped up by Wall Street. Let Wall Street fail and those funds fail, and all of a sudden your "immediate" crisis becomes an "extended" crisis when people hit retirement and suddenly have no funds available. Wall Street is a great money maker, but its not a good money store - once the value is lost, most funds cannot just sit around at 5% of their original worth and survive, they will collapse and they will never recover the 95% they lost. Which means all those retirement accounts which were investing your money are also now worthless.

By letting Wall Street fail, you cause a huge problem for the government down the road. So you don't let Wall Street fail.

Thats my take, I may be completely wrong, but hey.



The problem with this is as explained above, that it can lead to hyperinflation.
So while on paper, the 401Ks are protected by stimulus, in reality the big risk is that money is going to be worth a lot less if you keep stock prices of a very broad market artificially high in an environment that is supposed to be strongly deflationary. It can lead to the market correcting the value of money rather than money correcting the value of the market.


If stock markets keep going up in this environment, hitting new records, we can assume that we're in a high inflation environment.


Personally, I hold a wide portfolio of strangle option positions at this time.
IMO instability is the only certainty in these times.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:45 am

Yeah because nothing good or beneficial to our economy ever comes from Wall Street... It's like we're in the twilight zone. Why would any rational person be upset about a market increase?

It's all a show from those who want people to think they are "woke". You're not. The people who actually care volunteer their time in third world and impoverished places where this sort of thing isn't a pandemic but just a normal part of life. Those are the people who have my admiration. Not someone who thinks they're better than me because they want to sit at home and watch 90 Day Fiance and post Instagram stories with #Stayhomewithme. Seriously, people need to get over themselves.
 
Ertro
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:49 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Why are governments propping Wall Street rather than Main Street?


Crisis is excellent time to increase ones wealth. That requires a lot of very cheap targets to buy and a lot of funds to buy them. Collapsing main street provides the targets to buy and propping up wall street provides the funds.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:05 am

I think that there is a lot of room for the bears.
The market was overvalued before this hit.

We are now at levels seen in 2016 and 2018, while we should be below levels seen in 2008.

Why I am upset?
I am upset because
1 if corporations are required to announce any major market manipulation, governments should be too. Companies work hard to publish a transparent accountancy and investors study that published data to form a valuation. If you mess it all up, people are going to lose confidence and withdraw from the market. For investors this means withdrawing from the market, for corporations this means delisting.
2. keeping stock markets high artificially, through taxpayer's money is a dangerous game. Who is going to pay for market losses if despite all their best efforts the markets tank?
3 If nations 'print money' to inflate stock markets, it will, as mentionned above, lead to major inflation.
4 Disparities between different markets could lead to huge currency fluctuations that could wreck havoc on the economy as contracts between companies operating in different currency area's are impacted, disrupting global supply chains.


We are not talking about some fruit market here.
We are talking about most of the wealth on this planet being rigged.
Very dangerous stuff.

If the markets stay high like this, with corporations gasping for liquidity, they are going to start issuing shares like madmen.
Why shouldn't they? If lenders are not willing to take the risk, but equity investors are, they should be issuing shares.
I bet that some smart CFO's are planning share issuances as we speak.
 
Sokes
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:57 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I personally have about 20% in stocks but mostly on the sidelines in cash. We are a long ways from out of the woods.

If you have the money on a bank account, I have bad news for you. Legally you lend money to the bank. The banking system couldn't survive even 10% of companies going bankrupt. Your bank account money is gone long before companies. Therefore it is better to have shares than money on a bank account.
As a private person you can buy copper or other high prize/ volume goods. Banks can't do this. If they even spent 1% of their assets on copper, prices would rise extreme with implications in the real economy, which again is a problem for banks.

moo wrote:
...
But most people have much more money in their retirement funds than in their bank accounts - and those funds are propped up by Wall Street. Let Wall Street fail and those funds fail, and all of a sudden your "immediate" crisis becomes an "extended" crisis when people hit retirement and suddenly have no funds available. Wall Street is a great money maker, but its not a good money store - once the value is lost, most funds cannot just sit around at 5% of their original worth and survive, they will collapse and they will never recover the 95% they lost. Which means all those retirement accounts which were investing your money are also now worthless.

By letting Wall Street fail, you cause a huge problem for the government down the road. So you don't let Wall Street fail.

Thats my take, I may be completely wrong, but hey.

Yes and no. The government can always change the retirement system to what e.g. Germany uses since Bismark/ 1889.
"Funds paid in by contributors (employees and employers) are not saved (or invested) but are used to pay current pension obligations."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pensions_in_Germany
That means the higher the income, the higher the contribution and the higher the benefits later. It's not tax financed and somebody who never worked has no entitlement. Moreover entitlements depend on how long somebody paid in. It does not depend on the last year's salary, as Greece used to have.
This system is not affected by wars or currency reforms.
Moreover I have a suspicion that it is due to the US retirement system that Wall Street after 2008 didn't have to face an Andrew Jackson, Theodore Roosevelt or F. D. Rossevelt. Although T. Roosevelt succeeded only against trusts. But he was one of the "big balls" politicians.

I don't think pensions are the main concern of politicians.
"Campaign contributions and the revolving door between the private sector and government service gave Wall Street banks influence in Washington.
...
The American financial system has oscillated between concentration and fragmentation, but over the long term, it helped give us unrivaled prosperity without undermining our democratic system-at least not yet. Today, as we face the largest and most concentrated financial sector in our nation's history, Jefferson's legacy again demands our attention."
Simon Johnson/ James Kwak, "13 bankers", 2010

Banking has to collect savings and give it to people with business mentality. In the Great recession savers could have bought companies very cheap. But by nature they are not businessmen. So whatever politics does, it mustn't do big ruptures in real economy. Printing money is the temporary solution. But I must admit I didn't expect it to be a solution for more than ten years. So far I'm wrong to expect a collapse.
And while the stock market may be disconnected to the real economy, it may still be in a reasonable relation to money supply. Monetarism believes that inflation is always and everywhere a problem of money supply. But there can be inflation in assets for many years before consumer products show inflation. There is a reason why the basket of goods and services which is used to measure inflation does not include housing prices. Because people don't need houses?
People in the West would be surprised about asset inflation in developing countries. Beyond imagination.

Which is not to say that "too big to fail" banks should be saved. We don't need to break our head. F.D. Roosevelt found regulation which proved workable and was changed without reason by "prostitutes of Wall Street" politicians.

Contradicting evidence:
Didn't cheap interest lift billions of the world's most poor out of their misery? Didn't it enable the growth of renewable energy?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:45 pm

Sokes wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
I personally have about 20% in stocks but mostly on the sidelines in cash. We are a long ways from out of the woods.

If you have the money on a bank account, I have bad news for you. Legally you lend money to the bank. The banking system couldn't survive even 10% of companies going bankrupt. Your bank account money is gone long before companies. Therefore it is better to have shares than money on a bank account.
As a private person you can buy copper or other high prize/ volume goods. Banks can't do this. If they even spent 1% of their assets on copper, prices would rise extreme with implications in the real economy, which again is a problem for banks.

moo wrote:
...
But most people have much more money in their retirement funds than in their bank accounts - and those funds are propped up by Wall Street. Let Wall Street fail and those funds fail, and all of a sudden your "immediate" crisis becomes an "extended" crisis when people hit retirement and suddenly have no funds available. Wall Street is a great money maker, but its not a good money store - once the value is lost, most funds cannot just sit around at 5% of their original worth and survive, they will collapse and they will never recover the 95% they lost. Which means all those retirement accounts which were investing your money are also now worthless.

By letting Wall Street fail, you cause a huge problem for the government down the road. So you don't let Wall Street fail.

Thats my take, I may be completely wrong, but hey.

Yes and no. The government can always change the retirement system to what e.g. Germany uses since Bismark/ 1889.
"Funds paid in by contributors (employees and employers) are not saved (or invested) but are used to pay current pension obligations."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pensions_in_Germany
That means the higher the income, the higher the contribution and the higher the benefits later. It's not tax financed and somebody who never worked has no entitlement. Moreover entitlements depend on how long somebody paid in. It does not depend on the last year's salary, as Greece used to have.
This system is not affected by wars or currency reforms.
Moreover I have a suspicion that it is due to the US retirement system that Wall Street after 2008 didn't have to face an Andrew Jackson, Theodore Roosevelt or F. D. Rossevelt. Although T. Roosevelt succeeded only against trusts. But he was one of the "big balls" politicians.

I don't think pensions are the main concern of politicians.
"Campaign contributions and the revolving door between the private sector and government service gave Wall Street banks influence in Washington.
...
The American financial system has oscillated between concentration and fragmentation, but over the long term, it helped give us unrivaled prosperity without undermining our democratic system-at least not yet. Today, as we face the largest and most concentrated financial sector in our nation's history, Jefferson's legacy again demands our attention."
Simon Johnson/ James Kwak, "13 bankers", 2010

Banking has to collect savings and give it to people with business mentality. In the Great recession savers could have bought companies very cheap. But by nature they are not businessmen. So whatever politics does, it mustn't do big ruptures in real economy. Printing money is the temporary solution. But I must admit I didn't expect it to be a solution for more than ten years. So far I'm wrong to expect a collapse.
And while the stock market may be disconnected to the real economy, it may still be in a reasonable relation to money supply. Monetarism believes that inflation is always and everywhere a problem of money supply. But there can be inflation in assets for many years before consumer products show inflation. There is a reason why the basket of goods and services which is used to measure inflation does not include housing prices. Because people don't need houses?
People in the West would be surprised about asset inflation in developing countries. Beyond imagination.

Which is not to say that "too big to fail" banks should be saved. We don't need to break our head. F.D. Roosevelt found regulation which proved workable and was changed without reason by "prostitutes of Wall Street" politicians.

Contradicting evidence:
Didn't cheap interest lift billions of the world's most poor out of their misery? Didn't it enable the growth of renewable energy?


Yeah but see there is a problem with your retirement program strategy. Our government retirements in Europe indeed work like that.
At first they were well-intended proper investment programs, with "dividends" paid on returns from infrastructure projects.
Today, they are exactly what you describe, ie Ponzi schemes funded by "social contributions".

The problem is, social contributions also pay for health care and (temporary) unemployment programs. Can you see where this becomes a problem in the current environment?
Health care cost is rising because of the virus, millions un unemployment have to be paid.
This while social contributions are slashed as only a small fraction of the active population are still working and paying them.

In Europe we also have private pensions schemes, sometimes also as part of employment. They are invested in funds and also fiscally deductible to a limit. You can pick between low risk guaranteed returns barely higher than average inflation, or higher returns with higher risks.

See, this is the problem with the 401K's. At every downturn, you see your pension fund melt away. Hopefully it comes back at the next upswing, it usually does.
But this is part of a return-on-risk equation, you can't expect the government to prop up the whole market to win a presidential term extension which also conveniently happens to keep the 401K's looking good. The cost of that would be equal to the government paying you a retirement directly.
What you can do is to wait and retire later when your 401K looks better. Can't have it all your way.


Banks don't need to be saved, I agree.
Banks go bankrupt/insolvent all the time.
The only thing about big banks failing is dealing with the aftermath, ie what's left and who owes whom how much, because banks are just towers of IOU cards stacked together.
In such cases, it makes sense for governments to loan temporary liquidity.
But hey, look at banks like Deutsche Bank. They were a mess long before this thing hit. How much is it going to take Germany to save that when no amount of bail-out money can compensate the huge amounts of withdrawals lying ahead? Deutsche Bank can end up dragging the entire country back to the middle ages.
Why do you think that no investor has made a move on it despite its low market capitalisation? It's a suicide mission even for a nation.


Regarding inflation. QE during/after the GFC only added a small amount of liquidity to a much larger money supply and in phases over several years. This is why it didn't cause a spike in inflation.
But, if like now you distribute trillions of dollars all at once, a big chunk of it as helicopter money, on top of the FED shoring up equity markets through back doors, the US is playing with fire, a huge fire.
This is way beyond uncharted territory, or swimming in deep waters. This is like swimming in a pool of water inside the crater of a volcano while it is shaking and in eruption cycle, hoping that the magma is going to explode around you and spare you.

Letting companies without liquidity go bankrupt and rebuilding them from scratch may be cheaper than keeping the current dinosaurs alive.
Some US airlines are receiving 4 billion dollars in grant money plus billions more in loans. That makes the loans that AZ received look like punishment towards AZ.
Virgin America was started with less than 200 millions. Imagine what you could do with 4 billions to spend.
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:18 pm

One more word about aircraft lessors.
Lessors are at risk of insolvency too this time.
If aircraft valuations plummet because of a lack of demand, they will need to revalue their aircraft assets, especially when those assets stop generating a return, ie airlines stop paying their leases and the aircraft need to be reposessed.
Lessors owe to lenders and financial institutions, sometimes they are a direct subsidiary of one like SMBC Aviation Capital which can spare them or put them in trouble if the mother company gets in trouble (remember ILFC/AIG).

So what happens when your fleet of 100 A320's is not worth the 50 billion USD you paid for it minus depreciation but only 10-15 billion USD at current market valuations. In the meanwhile, you still have 30 billion USD in debt and little cash on the bank account.
Does this ring a bell? Ding ding ding, the subprime mortgage crisis.
Heck all it took to trigger that was 20% of bad loans and a mild decline in housing prices.

What will happen with the aircraft leasing industry when most if not all aircraft are grounded, none of the "tenants" / leasees are able to pay their monthly rates and aircraft are toxic assets that nobody wants to touch?

If that industry goes down the drain, we are talking Lehman Brothers times 20.

Forget the airlines, those who will be needing the real bail outs are the lessors whose assets are devaluing much faster than housing prices during the GFC.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6022
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:10 pm

Walter Bagehot said, “John Bull can stand a lot, but he can’t stand 2% interest”. Simple reason, near-zero interest forces investors into risky investments to get returns. From Grant’s IRO,

Here’s what the past does teach:

1.Ultra-low interest rates distort in- vestment judgment, prolong the lives of profitless companies and inflate the present value of future cash flows.
2. Desperately searching for yield, in- vestors often find trouble.
3.Technological innovation threat- ens established businesses, heavily leveraged established businesses most of all
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 555
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:23 am

Pretty good discussion. I appreciate people understand the stock market is an anticipation of future value.

I do anticipate that, in the future, rich people will be really f***** rich. Some may disagree. I do believe that. Therefore, I believe stocks will be higher in the future than they are today. The market is a self-correcting, self-balancing mechanism.

There is significant development left in the world to do. Lots of intelligent, young people are coming up all over the world, with huge financial gains to be made by them. That will make the rich people (stock holders) richer. And it will happen. COVID will be a pain for several years. Short time really. The forces I mentioned are bigger than Covid.

What does scare me a little bit is a 1970s-style stagflation.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:10 am

Actually odder than stagflation is how hard it is to increase inflation. 2-3% inflation a year can function as a 'lubricant' to keep the economy strong. No matter what Japan (first), and then other developed nations do with budget deficits inflation refuses to occur. Odd and then some. Also, while stocks in the long run are self-correcting they can be god awful slow in doing so. As people my age die off we are leaving a lot of money for our kids, and my kids in turn to their kids likely a lot more than me.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
winginit
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:29 am

The economy is the dog walker - generally sticking to the sidewalk without too much deviation. Ups and downs sure, but on longer timelines.

The stock market is the dog - running all over the place sniffing and peeing on everything on a whim. Up down left right, but at the end of the day is broadly trending with the dog walker.

The global dog walker just got hit by a car and dropped the leash. That's where we are today.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Stock market total disconnect

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:33 am

It took over ten years to recover from the great depression. And well after WWII for the stock market to reach former heights.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Sokes
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Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:19 am

LCDFlight wrote:
There is significant development left in the world to do. Lots of intelligent, young people are coming up all over the world, with huge financial gains to be made by them. That will make the rich people (stock holders) richer. And it will happen. COVID will be a pain for several years. Short time really. The forces I mentioned are bigger than Covid.

What does scare me a little bit is a 1970s-style stagflation.

Nothing to be scared. Reagan showed the way.

But the sentence before has huge implication. I'm in India since 2002. The last few years many laws changed. With each additional law passed I consider India more and more as a possible investment destination. Before that I always asked myself how foreign investors like to invest here. (I guess global companies can't be as easily ill treated as small local businessmen. Does this explain why trusts were dominant formerly in the US?)
Low interest was one condition for it. Moreover I believe the super rich/ institutional investors only did so because they knew politicians are there to bail them out. And even though it took nearly fifteen years, this policy shows fruits. People also seem to shift priority in elections from subsidies to governance. I guess a certain minimum wealth is required for it.
(I got a brother in law who is smart. He understands and is interested in politics. I asked him: "Suppose for state elections you expect one candidate to make good policies and another one to distribute the tax money as subsidies. Whom do you vote?" He said: "I got four children. I need the money. I vote for the person who gives subsidies." It's actually not stupid. He is labor class. If good policies lead to huge job increases, there is huge labor surplus from all over India ready to settle in Goa. Wages will hardly go up. But rents and property prices will shoot up. How will his children later afford housing? On state level it's better to vote for a pathetic politician who distributes tax money. Should poor people with more than two children be allowed to vote? Was China right to restrict movement?)

And India is only one of many poor countries having profited a lot. That's why I mentioned earlier that it is this policy which lifted billions out of poverty.
An unqualified daily laborer told me maybe 2012:
"Before 2000 if a child didn't want to go to school parents agreed. Children dropped out of school. Now parents don't agree."
Earlier there were hardly jobs outside agriculture. And a lot of these better jobs were in public companies. One got them through connections, not merit. So why to waste time in school?

Once there is a prospect for jobs outside agriculture, education is taken serious. Also politics gets better. This again leads to more and better jobs. It's a virtuous cycle. I doubt countries have advanced enough not to fall back in their vicious cycle. So in the interest of the poor billions, politics just has to make the economy keep running.
However I see no exit strategy. But maybe you are right and none is needed. Maybe the economic bet of dumping money on poor countries is going to work.
What about Brasil? IIRC Brazil industrialized with foreign help in the 1970s. It's a bad comparison, as interests were high that time. But these last years they also enjoyed low interests and they had a head start. I know some areas are pathetic, but that's even so in many rich countries. How are they doing overall?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Sokes
Posts: 1624
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:10 am

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Actually odder than stagflation is how hard it is to increase inflation. 2-3% inflation a year can function as a 'lubricant' to keep the economy strong. No matter what Japan (first), and then other developed nations do with budget deficits inflation refuses to occur. Odd and then some. Also, while stocks in the long run are self-correcting they can be god awful slow in doing so. As people my age die off we are leaving a lot of money for our kids, and my kids in turn to their kids likely a lot more than me.

Don't worry about inflation. Once China decides not to increase lending (renew credit, but don't increase) to other countries you will get enough inflation.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/12/chinas- ... -debt.html

I assume with money you mean wealth. How much rent one gets for a flat will depend on demand. In a shrinking population the rich may actually get more rent if they had to inherit less flats.
However one organizes retirement, it's always the working population that has to work/ pay for those who don't work. Unless the old people have investments abroad which means foreign workers have to work/ pay for them.
Housing, infrastructure, education, foreign investments and working institutions is what the old of a country can leave for the young of that country. Money derives it's meaning from these factors. I speak macro. For an individual it's different.

Did you read the CNBC article?
I was just joking. But this CNBC article makes one wonder if there is a China paranoia or if they have an agenda.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... nt_balance
How much of German means of production belong to US citizens as compared to Chinese means of production? I really don't know, but there must be a reason why media pick on China instead of Germany/ Japan.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:13 am

Yesterday I wrote this:

Waterbomber2 wrote:
If the markets stay high like this, with corporations gasping for liquidity, they are going to start issuing shares like madmen.
Why shouldn't they? If lenders are not willing to take the risk, but equity investors are, they should be issuing shares.
I bet that some smart CFO's are planning share issuances as we speak.



Today in the news:

(Reuters) - United Airlines Holdings Inc <UAL.O> on Tuesday announced a public offering to raise more than $1 billion, the first major airline to sell equity to help it survive a sharp travel downturn in the coronavirus pandemic.

The offer of 39.25 million shares, underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Barclays, was priced at $26.50 per share, United said in a statement, a discount of 4.9% on Tuesday's close.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-a ... 59468.html
 
Sokes
Posts: 1624
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:29 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Today in the news:

(Reuters) - United Airlines Holdings Inc <UAL.O> on Tuesday announced a public offering to raise more than $1 billion, the first major airline to sell equity to help it survive a sharp travel downturn in the coronavirus pandemic.

The offer of 39.25 million shares, underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Barclays, was priced at $26.50 per share, United said in a statement, a discount of 4.9% on Tuesday's close.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-a ... 59468.html

Hallelujah. Finally a management which shows some sense of responsibility towards it's employees and society as a whole.

Why are old shareholders not asked first if they want to buy some more in proportion to their old share? Is this none of the old owners' business? Company law is so crooked in favor of the rich that one has to wonder why people still want to invest in shares. I don't know if this depends on the articles of association of United or if it is general company law. At any rate I believe something like this shouldn't be allowed as it enables somebody with a 25% share to take control if he/ she promises enough to the management/ board.
But then small shareholders don't give advisory contracts to politicians who fail to get reelected. There are reasons why the super rich outperform not so rich investors. At whose cost?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
User avatar
trpmb6
Posts: 3018
Joined: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:45 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:51 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Yesterday I wrote this:

Waterbomber2 wrote:
If the markets stay high like this, with corporations gasping for liquidity, they are going to start issuing shares like madmen.
Why shouldn't they? If lenders are not willing to take the risk, but equity investors are, they should be issuing shares.
I bet that some smart CFO's are planning share issuances as we speak.



Today in the news:

(Reuters) - United Airlines Holdings Inc <UAL.O> on Tuesday announced a public offering to raise more than $1 billion, the first major airline to sell equity to help it survive a sharp travel downturn in the coronavirus pandemic.

The offer of 39.25 million shares, underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Barclays, was priced at $26.50 per share, United said in a statement, a discount of 4.9% on Tuesday's close.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-a ... 59468.html


And honestly should have been their first steps before requesting government assistance given the share buyback programs they conducted over the last few years.
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:25 am

Sokes wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Today in the news:

(Reuters) - United Airlines Holdings Inc <UAL.O> on Tuesday announced a public offering to raise more than $1 billion, the first major airline to sell equity to help it survive a sharp travel downturn in the coronavirus pandemic.

The offer of 39.25 million shares, underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Barclays, was priced at $26.50 per share, United said in a statement, a discount of 4.9% on Tuesday's close.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-a ... 59468.html

Hallelujah. Finally a management which shows some sense of responsibility towards it's employees and society as a whole.

Why are old shareholders not asked first if they want to buy some more in proportion to their old share? Is this none of the old owners' business? Company law is so crooked in favor of the rich that one has to wonder why people still want to invest in shares. I don't know if this depends on the articles of association of United or if it is general company law. At any rate I believe something like this shouldn't be allowed as it enables somebody with a 25% share to take control if he/ she promises enough to the management/ board.
But then small shareholders don't give advisory contracts to politicians who fail to get reelected. There are reasons why the super rich outperform not so rich investors. At whose cost?


How does this work though?
Let's say that an investor got in at 50 USD per share in 2018.
Share goes down to 30 USD per share, the investor is down 40% on his investment.
How can an airline ask such investors to dilute themselves by putting more money in?
That's a tough sell.

I think that more airlines and corporations are going to issue stock soon, mainly to the people keen on opening new positions.

This will lead to automatic correction of the market disconnect.


IMO with net assets turning negative and no spectacular recovery expectable in the mid-term, airline stocks should be displaying 0.01 USD / EUR by now.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 13135
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:05 am

It's common when issuing new shares to allow current shareholders to participate, often with a discount/free shares.

Now this issuance is by a distressed company, not one looking to invest, so it's a bit different. New money coming will help old shareholders in the sense that the company will survive.

As for inflation not coming, the cause if obvious, every time companies had a choice between producing more locally by investing more and paying higher salaries, they chose instead to offshore production to low cost countries, causing deflation.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:58 pm

4.4 million additional jobless claims in the U.S., and Futures, European shares are up.

Total insanity.

Don't give me the "it's priced in" remark, because shares are still trading for more than the companies are worth even in a good economy, let alone the current situation.

The only thing priced in is an impending second crash.
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:21 pm

Aesma wrote:
It's common when issuing new shares to allow current shareholders to participate, often with a discount/free shares.

Now this issuance is by a distressed company, not one looking to invest, so it's a bit different. New money coming will help old shareholders in the sense that the company will survive.

As for inflation not coming, the cause if obvious, every time companies had a choice between producing more locally by investing more and paying higher salaries, they chose instead to offshore production to low cost countries, causing deflation.


In a normal situation when we're talking about a company that is looking to invest or reduce debt to increase future profitability, asking existing shareholders is part of the game.

Asking existing shareholders when they are probably in the hole and you have lost most revenues, while they are about to be diluted even more is just arrogance.
I doubt that existing shareholders would be interested at all, the only ones buying are market makers and day traders and probably federal agencies through back doors.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:33 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Sokes wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
Today in the news:

(Reuters) - United Airlines Holdings Inc <UAL.O> on Tuesday announced a public offering to raise more than $1 billion, the first major airline to sell equity to help it survive a sharp travel downturn in the coronavirus pandemic.

The offer of 39.25 million shares, underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Barclays, was priced at $26.50 per share, United said in a statement, a discount of 4.9% on Tuesday's close.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-a ... 59468.html

Hallelujah. Finally a management which shows some sense of responsibility towards it's employees and society as a whole.

Why are old shareholders not asked first if they want to buy some more in proportion to their old share? Is this none of the old owners' business? Company law is so crooked in favor of the rich that one has to wonder why people still want to invest in shares. I don't know if this depends on the articles of association of United or if it is general company law. At any rate I believe something like this shouldn't be allowed as it enables somebody with a 25% share to take control if he/ she promises enough to the management/ board.
But then small shareholders don't give advisory contracts to politicians who fail to get reelected. There are reasons why the super rich outperform not so rich investors. At whose cost?


How does this work though?
Let's say that an investor got in at 50 USD per share in 2018.
Share goes down to 30 USD per share, the investor is down 40% on his investment.
How can an airline ask such investors to dilute themselves by putting more money in?
That's a tough sell.

I think that more airlines and corporations are going to issue stock soon, mainly to the people keen on opening new positions.

This will lead to automatic correction of the market disconnect.


IMO with net assets turning negative and no spectacular recovery expectable in the mid-term, airline stocks should be displaying 0.01 USD / EUR by now.


Correct, airlines are functionally totally beyond bankrupt. They are beholden to labor, paying large paychecks (and aircraft lease payments) with no money coming in. Normally, a business gets rid of employees when customers do not demand the product. In this case, airline managers are hoping to become quasi-government agents, while still indulging in a charade of market activity with "shareholders" whose share is based on a government program only.

It's weird. IMO, the airlines need to declare bankruptcy. They were not robust to a major market downturn.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4221
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Thu Apr 23, 2020 8:17 pm

Some industries, and their workers are privileged. And typically they are not grateful for it.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6022
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:20 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
4.4 million additional jobless claims in the U.S., and Futures, European shares are up.

Total insanity.

Don't give me the "it's priced in" remark, because shares are still trading for more than the companies are worth even in a good economy, let alone the current situation.

The only thing priced in is an impending second crash.


Not true, a lot of the market is bouyed by money leaving muni and state bonds. They’re heading for exits there due to budgets being cratered by collapsing tax revenue and unsustainable pensions. They’re will lots of blood in those markets.

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-inv ... SL1N2BC2FT
 
Jalap
Posts: 640
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:15 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
I do anticipate that, in the future, rich people will be really f***** rich. Some may disagree. I do believe that. Therefore, I believe stocks will be higher in the future than they are today. The market is a self-correcting, self-balancing mechanism.

Well, it is't really self-correcting and self-balancing.
Every time there's a major crisis, it needs government money to not totally collapse.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:54 pm

Jalap wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
I do anticipate that, in the future, rich people will be really f***** rich. Some may disagree. I do believe that. Therefore, I believe stocks will be higher in the future than they are today. The market is a self-correcting, self-balancing mechanism.

Well, it is't really self-correcting and self-balancing.
Every time there's a major crisis, it needs government money to not totally collapse.


This is surely in the eye of the beholder, but the government did not create the wealth in 2000-2020. Private companies did. Many people including Larry Summers thought the economy could never recover from 2008 without massive government stimulus. There was a medium sized stimulus, but otherwise corporate profits recovered strongly after 2008, pushing tax receipts to record highs in the US. It is true there was a TARP program in 2008, but it was paid back.

2020 appears to be worse and potentially more long term dangerous IMO. But until this point, the stock market was doing absolutely fine based on healthy corporate profits. I tend to think that in the future, corporate profits will be high again. Or, perhaps there will be fundamental social change away from a market system toward a "panel of ministers" approach, which has been used in Africa for many years.
 
winginit
Posts: 2857
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:00 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Jalap wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
I do anticipate that, in the future, rich people will be really f***** rich. Some may disagree. I do believe that. Therefore, I believe stocks will be higher in the future than they are today. The market is a self-correcting, self-balancing mechanism.

Well, it is't really self-correcting and self-balancing.
Every time there's a major crisis, it needs government money to not totally collapse.


This is surely in the eye of the beholder, but the government did not create the wealth in 2000-2020. Private companies did. Many people including Larry Summers thought the economy could never recover from 2008 without massive government stimulus. There was a medium sized stimulus, but otherwise corporate profits recovered strongly after 2008, pushing tax receipts to record highs in the US. It is true there was a TARP program in 2008, but it was paid back.

2020 appears to be worse and potentially more long term dangerous IMO. But until this point, the stock market was doing absolutely fine based on healthy corporate profits. I tend to think that in the future, corporate profits will be high again. Or, perhaps there will be fundamental social change away from a market system toward a "panel of ministers" approach, which has been used in Africa for many years.


The difference here is that the fed is out of bullets. In 2008 we were able to snap the federal interest rate down to 0% in order to stimulate the economy for years through cheap borrowing. Unfortunately, we were slow to restock that ammo in raising the interest rates back up now, with interest rates back at zero, there's no lever to pull apart from printing money.
 
Sokes
Posts: 1624
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:17 pm

Suppose an economy shrinks by 60%. If money supply also shrinks by 60% and share value shrinks by 60% everything is evaluated as before. But money supply isn't shrinking.

If I own 0,0001 % of a company I expect the management to ask me before a stranger if I want to buy new shares up to 0,0001 % of new shares issued. I expect that independent of management's assumptions about my interests or financial position.
But for the super rich who give advisory contracts to politician it's better if they can choose first if they want to buy the new shares.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Sokes
Posts: 1624
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:34 pm

Aesma wrote:
As for inflation not coming, the cause if obvious, every time companies had a choice between producing more locally by investing more and paying higher salaries, they chose instead to offshore production to low cost countries, causing deflation.


Do you mean countries with low salaries? India has low salaries, but a trade deficit. It's a high cost country, so to say.
With Keynes's Bancor there wouldn't be any trade imbalances and therefore no low cost countries. These low cost countries have laws or policies that prevent workers to demand their fare share of productivity increases. It's easy to see which countries these are by looking at balance of trade surplus. China could simply allow it's currency to reflect true value. Chinese products would become more expensive, Chinese consumers would enjoy cheaper imports. Germany would have to increase salaries or get it's own currency again.

Every country does what it can do best/ cheapest assumes balanced trade.

Would Africa, South America and South Asia had the boom they had the last 15-20 years without Chinese and German and some other countries' trade surplus?
What would world poverty be today without the trade surplus?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:49 pm

Aesma is right that globalization reduced inflation. But the implication that the US can print infinite money without any penalty is an absurd one also, a signal that the current system will devolve, if the US continues to not pay its bills. If it occurs slowly, we can stave it off 50 years. If things accelerate (full shutdown, generous universal basic income, no economic activity) the reckoning and full collapse would take about 5 years. Another Argentina / Venezuela, a victim of low education, an ignorant and indolent public. I think people mistrust business, which is pretty darn dangerous, if you look at the alternatives; namely Argentina and ultimately, Venezuela. Places where people live far worse lives than their grandparents did.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4221
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:21 pm

Government does not create wealth: What about establishing the internet? What about road construction and all the subsidies to aviation? What about regulating financials so you can (somewhat) trust your bank? What about rescuing citizens and businesses when they cannot otherwise survive? Defense? Laws and law enforcement to protect property rights? Try a little wisdom. And humbleness.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
winginit
Posts: 2857
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:36 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Government does not create wealth: What about establishing the internet? What about road construction and all the subsidies to aviation? What about regulating financials so you can (somewhat) trust your bank? What about rescuing citizens and businesses when they cannot otherwise survive? Defense? Laws and law enforcement to protect property rights? Try a little wisdom. And humbleness.


Bingo. The entire notion of a corporation only exists because of the framework and regulation established by, you guessed it, government.
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:47 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Jalap wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
I do anticipate that, in the future, rich people will be really f***** rich. Some may disagree. I do believe that. Therefore, I believe stocks will be higher in the future than they are today. The market is a self-correcting, self-balancing mechanism.

Well, it is't really self-correcting and self-balancing.
Every time there's a major crisis, it needs government money to not totally collapse.


This is surely in the eye of the beholder, but the government did not create the wealth in 2000-2020. Private companies did. Many people including Larry Summers thought the economy could never recover from 2008 without massive government stimulus. There was a medium sized stimulus, but otherwise corporate profits recovered strongly after 2008, pushing tax receipts to record highs in the US. It is true there was a TARP program in 2008, but it was paid back.

2020 appears to be worse and potentially more long term dangerous IMO. But until this point, the stock market was doing absolutely fine based on healthy corporate profits. I tend to think that in the future, corporate profits will be high again. Or, perhaps there will be fundamental social change away from a market system toward a "panel of ministers" approach, which has been used in Africa for many years.


Oh well, yes, the "medium-sized" bailout:

https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list

Fannie Mae Government-Sponsored Enterprise D.C. $119,836,000,000 $68,831,000,000
Freddie Mac Government-Sponsored Enterprise Va. $71,648,000,000 $51,707,000,000
AIG
Received other federal aid. Click to see details.
Insurance Company N.Y. $67,835,000,000 $5,025,967,492
General Motors Auto Company Mich. $50,744,648,329 -$11,308,238,095
Citigroup
Received other federal aid. Click to see details.
Bank N.Y. $45,000,000,000 $13,448,572,616
Bank of America
Received other federal aid. Click to see details.
Bank N.C. $45,000,000,000 $4,566,857,694
JPMorgan Chase Bank N.Y. $25,000,000,000 $1,731,202,357
Wells Fargo Bank Calif. $25,000,000,000 $2,281,347,113
GMAC (now Ally Financial) Financial Services Company Mich. $16,290,000,000 $3,057,502,589
Chrysler Auto Company Mich. $10,748,284,222 -$1,212,849,005
Goldman Sachs Bank N.Y. $10,000,000,000 $1,418,055,555
Morgan Stanley Bank N.Y. $10,000,000,000 $1,268,055,555
PNC Financial Services Bank Pa. $7,579,200,000 $741,344,650
U.S. Bancorp Bank Minn. $6,599,000,000 $334,220,416
SunTrust Bank Ga. $4,850,000,000 $527,323,605
PHH Mortgage, a subsidiary of Ocwen Financial Corporation Mortgage Servicer Fla. $4,711,560,004 -$4,711,560,004
Capital One Financial Corp. Bank Va. $3,555,199,000 $251,674,702
Regions Financial Corp. Bank Ala. $3,500,000,000 $638,055,555
Wellington Management Legacy Securities PPIF Master Fund, LP Investment Fund Del. $3,448,461,000 $702,530,334
Fifth Third Bancorp Bank Ohio $3,408,000,000 $593,372,603
Hartford Financial Services Insurance Company Conn. $3,400,000,000 $814,403,447
American Express Financial Services Company N.Y. $3,388,890,000 $414,367,308
AG GECC PPIF Master Fund, L.P. Investment Fund Del. $3,352,197,510 $926,527,713
Wells Fargo Bank, NA Mortgage Servicer Iowa $3,309,627,666 -$3,309,627,666
AllianceBernstein Legacy Securities Master Fund, L.P. Investment Fund Del. $3,192,141,738 $562,685,420
JPMorgan Chase subsidiaries Mortgage Servicer N.J. $3,186,728,936 -$3,186,728,936
BB&T Bank N.C. $3,133,640,000 $159,713,918
Bank of New York Mellon Bank N.Y. $3,000,000,000 $231,416,666
KeyCorp Bank Ohio $2,500,000,000 $367,222,222
CalHFA Mortgage Assistance Corporation State Housing Orgs Calif. $2,360,253,221 -$2,360,253,221
CIT Group Bank N.Y. $2,330,000,000 -$2,286,312,500
Bank of America subsidiaries (incl. Countrywide) Mortgage Servicer Calif. $2,252,457,534 -$2,252,457,534
Comerica Incorporated Bank Texas $2,250,000,000 $322,039,543
State Street Bank Mass. $2,000,000,000 $123,611,111
RLJ Western Asset Public/Private Master Fund, L.P. Investment Fund Del. $1,861,578,258 $471,721,059
Invesco Legacy Securities Master Fund, L.P. Investment Fund Del. $1,742,880,000 $576,938,945
Marshall & Ilsley Bank Wis. $1,715,000,000 $229,772,916
Oaktree PPIP Fund, L.P. Investment Fund Del. $1,666,904,633 $291,426,775
Select Portfolio Servicing Mortgage Servicer Utah $1,595,105,398 -$1,595,105,398
Blackrock PPIF, L.P. Investment Fund Del. $1,581,184,800 $436,178,172
Northern Trust Bank Ill. $1,576,000,000 $133,623,333
Chrysler Financial Services Financial Services Company Mich. $1,500,000,000 $25,367,458
Nationstar Mortgage, LLC dba Mr. Cooper Mortgage Servicer Texas $1,492,303,496 -$1,492,303,496
Marathon Legacy Securities Public-Private Investment Partnership, L.P. Investment Fund Del. $1,423,550,000 $399,600,628
Zions Bancorp Bank Utah $1,400,000,000 $253,361,111
Huntington Bancshares Bank Ohio $1,398,071,000 $196,285,810
Discover Financial Services Financial Services Company Ill. $1,224,558,000 $239,690,844
Florida Housing Finance Corporation State Housing Orgs Fla. $1,136,616,680 -$1,136,616,680
Synovus Financial Corp. Bank Ga. $967,870,000 $223,149,526
Lincoln National Corporation Insurance Company Pa. $950,000,000 $259,851,873
Popular, Inc. Bank Puerto Rico $935,000,000 $285,279,999
First Horizon National Bank Tenn. $866,540,000 $170,927,405
Ohio Homeowner Assistance LLC State Housing Orgs Ohio $762,791,540 -$762,791,540
CitiMortgage, Inc. Mortgage Servicer Mo. $762,484,957 -$762,484,957
Michigan Homeowner Assistance Nonprofit Housing Corporation State Housing Orgs Mich. $761,622,301 -$761,622,301
Illinois Housing Development Authority State Housing Orgs Ill. $715,615,095 -$715,615,095
North Carolina Housing Finance Agency State Housing Orgs N.C. $706,938,882 -$706,938,882
M&T Bank Corporation Bank N.Y. $600,000,000 $135,435,911
Associated Banc-Corp Bank Wis. $525,000,000 $71,539,173
CIT Bank, N.A. Mortgage Servicer Calif. $438,753,390 -$438,753,390
First BanCorp Bank Puerto Rico $424,174,000 -$187,090,813
New Jersey Housing and Mortgage Finance Agency State Housing Orgs N.J. $415,512,054 -$415,512,054
Webster Financial Bank Conn. $400,000,000 $57,083,286
City National Bank Calif. $400,000,000 $41,916,666
Fulton Financial Corp Bank Pa. $376,500,000 $40,135,625
GHFA Affordable Housing, Inc. State Housing Orgs Ga. $370,574,260 -$370,574,260
SBA Security Purchases SBA Security Purchases D.C. $368,145,452 $8,602,850
Bayview Loan Servicing LLC Mortgage Servicer Fla. $363,259,957 -$363,259,957
Specialized Loan Servicing LLC Mortgage Servicer Colo. $361,883,691 -$361,883,691
TCF Financial Bank Minn. $361,172,000 $17,375,699
UST/TCW Senior Mortgage Securities Fund, L.P. Investment Fund Del. $356,250,000 $20,986,495
South Financial Group Bank S.C. $347,000,000 -$200,034,670
Wilmington Trust Corporation Bank Del. $330,000,000 $39,920,833
SC Housing Corp State Housing Orgs S.C. $317,461,821 -$317,461,821
Oregon Affordable Housing Assistance Corporation State Housing Orgs Ore. $314,752,280 -$314,752,280
GMAC Mortgage, LLC Mortgage Servicer Pa. $309,559,668 -$309,559,668
East West Bancorp, Inc. Bank Calif. $306,546,000 $46,176,420
Sterling Financial Corp Bank Wash. $303,000,000 -$181,242,791
Tennessee Housing Development Agency State Housing Orgs Tenn. $302,336,993 -$302,336,993
Valley National Bank N.J. $300,000,000 $18,400,781
Citizens Republic Bancorp Bank Mich. $300,000,000 $81,395,557
Whitney Holding Corp Bank La. $300,000,000 $43,733,333
Susquehanna Bancshares Bank Pa. $300,000,000 $28,991,401
Ditech Financial LLC Mortgage Servicer Minn. $299,467,596 -$299,467,596
UCBH Holdings Bank Calif. $298,737,000 -$291,226,980
Arizona (Home) Foreclosure Prevention Funding Corporation State Housing Orgs Ariz. $296,146,720 -$296,146,720
First Banks, Inc. Bank Mo. $295,400,000 -$175,186,740
GM Supplier Receivables, LLC Auto Company D.C. $290,000,000 $65,403,673
Homeward Residential, Inc. Mortgage Servicer Texas $280,486,273 -$280,486,273
New York Private Bank & Trust Corp Bank N.Y. $267,274,000 $79,520,006
Flagstar Bancorp Bank Mich. $266,657,000 $11,204,056
Cathay General Bancorp Bank Calif. $258,000,000 $71,874,444
Indiana Housing and Community Development Authority State Housing Orgs Ind. $253,306,647 -$253,306,647
Wintrust Financial Corp Bank Ill. $250,000,000 $50,704,730
PrivateBancorp Bank Ill. $243,815,000 $44,400,576
SVB Financial Group Bank Calif. $235,000,000 $18,929,027
International Bancshares Corporation Bank Texas $216,000,000 $45,538,650
Trustmark Corp Bank Miss. $215,000,000 $21,287,500
Umpqua Bank Ore. $214,181,000 $17,975,554
Washington Federal Inc. Bank Wash. $200,000,000 $20,749,985
MB Financial Bank Ill. $196,000,000 $33,613,071
Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC Mortgage Servicer Calif. $195,234,439 -$195,234,439
Pacific Capital Bancorp Bank Calif. $195,045,000 -$26,561,211
First Midwest Bancorp Bank Ill. $193,000,000 $29,528,332
MidFirst Bank Mortgage Servicer Okla. $189,549,001 -$189,549,001
U.S. Bank National Association Mortgage Servicer Ky. $189,445,567 -$189,445,567
Kentucky Housing Corporation State Housing Orgs Ky. $184,500,000 -$184,500,000
First Niagara Bank N.Y. $184,011,000 $7,453,618
United Community Banks Bank Ga. $180,000,000 $30,367,527
Nevada Affordable Housing Assistance Corporation State Housing Orgs Nev. $177,479,597 -$177,479,597
Boston Private Financial Holdings Bank Mass. $154,000,000 $17,224,745
Provident Bankshares Corp. Bank Md. $151,500,000 $30,556,363
National Penn Bancshares Bank Pa. $150,000,000 $17,958,333
Dickinson Financial Corp II Bank Mo. $146,053,000 -$58,593,142
Western Alliance Bancorporation Bank Nev. $140,000,000 $20,365,000
Central Pacific Financial Corp Bank Hawaii $135,000,000 -$59,963,109
CVB Financial Bank Calif. $130,000,000 $6,046,583
Sterling Bancshares Bank Texas $125,198,000 $5,344,485
FirstMerit Corp Bank Ohio $125,000,000 $6,813,194
Banner Corp Bank Wash. $124,000,000 $5,079,862
Chrysler Receivables SPV LLC Auto Company D.C. $123,076,735 $49,671,126
Signature Bank Bank N.Y. $120,000,000 $12,967,606
Rhode Island Housing and Mortgage Finance Corporation State Housing Orgs R.I. $116,019,791 -$116,019,791
First Merchants Corp Bank Ind. $116,000,000 $15,383,055
Mississippi Home Corporation State Housing Orgs Miss. $115,638,832 -$115,638,832
1st Source Corp Bank Ind. $111,000,000 $14,479,999
WTB Financial Corp Bank Wash. $110,000,000 $21,236,874
Anchor BanCorp Wisconsin Bank Wis. $110,000,000 -$104,000,000
S&T Bancorp Bank Pa. $108,676,000 $16,240,099
Taylor Capital Bank Ill. $104,823,000 $16,022,174
Saxon Mortgage Services, Inc. Mortgage Servicer Texas $100,807,086 -$100,807,086
Alabama Housing Finance Authority State Housing Orgs Ala. $100,000,000 -$100,000,000
F.N.B. Corporation Bank Pa. $100,000,000 $4,023,433
First Busey Corporation Bank Ill. $100,000,000 $12,410,898
Park National Corporation Bank Ohio $100,000,000 $19,536,844
TALF LLC TALF Del. $100,000,000 $649,307,823
Old National Bancorp Bank Ind. $100,000,000 $2,713,888
NewRez LLC D/B/A Shellpoint Mortgage Servicing Mortgage Servicer S.C. $99,801,382 -$99,801,382
Pinnacle Financial Bank Tenn. $95,000,000 $16,918,194
Union First Market Bankshares Corporation Bank Va. $92,900,000 $10,080,832
Fay Servicing, LLC Mortgage Servicer Ill. $90,063,863 -$90,063,863
IBERIABANK Corp Bank La. $90,000,000 $2,650,000
Midwest Banc Holdings Bank Ill. $89,388,000 -$88,563,712
Sun Bancorp Bank N.J. $89,310,000 $3,203,970
Plains Capital Corp Bank Texas $87,631,000 $17,621,941
Aurora Loan Services, LLC Mortgage Servicer Colo. $85,863,518 -$85,863,518
PennyMac Loan Services, LLC Mortgage Servicer Calif. $85,376,874 -$85,376,874
Westamerica Bancorporation Bank Calif. $83,726,000 $3,634,236
Integra Bank Corporation Bank Ind. $83,586,000 -$81,635,660
Sandy Spring Bancorp Bank Md. $83,094,000 $12,043,869
Heartland Financial USA Bank Iowa $81,698,000 $12,988,086
BancPlus Corporation Bank Miss. $80,914,000 $10,738,508
Hampton Roads Bankshares Bank Va. $80,347,000 -$72,885,392
First Financial Bancorp Bank Ohio $80,000,000 $7,644,065
PNC Mortgage Mortgage Servicer Ohio $78,972,072 -$78,972,072
Independent Bank Corp Bank Mass. $78,158,000 $3,318,093
Columbia Banking System Bank Wash. $76,898,000 $9,923,419
TowneBank Bank Va. $76,458,000 $12,119,166
Litton Loan Servicing LP Mortgage Servicer Texas $76,324,760 -$76,324,760
Bank of the Ozarks Bank Ark. $75,000,000 $6,004,166
WesBanco Bank W.Va. $75,000,000 $6,050,697
Texas Capital Bancshares Bank Texas $75,000,000 $7,777,816
Metropolitan Bank Group Bank Ill. $74,706,000 -$47,533,274
Old Second Bancorp Bank Ill. $73,000,000 -$41,576,763
First Place Financial Corp Bank Ohio $72,927,000 -$65,917,905
Green Bankshares Bank Tenn. $72,278,000 $2,364,857
Rushmore Loan Management Services LLC Mortgage Servicer Calif. $72,218,561 -$72,218,561
Independent Bank Corporation Bank Mich. $72,000,000 $9,004,000
BankUnited, N.A. Mortgage Servicer Fla. $71,949,933 -$71,949,933
Virginia Commerce Bancorp Bank Va. $71,000,000 $47,453,139
Southwest Bancorp Bank Okla. $70,000,000 $15,247,569
Alpine Banks of Colorado Bank Colo. $70,000,000 $3,129,161
Flushing Financial Corp Bank N.Y. $70,000,000 $3,904,166
Superior Bancorp Bank Ala. $69,000,000 -$64,016,667
Nara Bancorp Bank Calif. $67,000,000 $14,249,316
First Bancorp Bank N.C. $65,000,000 $9,518,906
First Financial Holdings Bank S.C. $65,000,000 $3,141,972
SCBT Financial Corp Bank S.C. $64,779,000 $2,515,638
CoBiz Financial Bank Colo. $64,450,000 $8,907,086
Wilshire Bancorp Bank Calif. $62,158,000 $6,651,170
Standard Bancshares Bank Ill. $60,000,000 $15,757,163
Lakeland Bancorp Bank N.J. $59,000,000 $9,260,833
Great Southern Bancorp Bank Mo. $58,000,000 $14,274,419
Liberty Bancshares Bank Ark. $57,500,000 $10,691,967
MainSource Financial Group Bank Ind. $57,000,000 $5,949,121
Lakeland Financial Corporation Bank Ind. $56,044,000 $4,473,713
Center Financial Corp Bank Calif. $55,000,000 $10,889,583
Community Bancshares Of Mississippi, Inc./Community Bank Of Mississippi Bank Miss. $54,600,000 $8,342,099
WSFS Financial Bank Del. $52,625,000 $5,015,859
NewBridge Bancorp Bank N.C. $52,372,000 $17,715,061
Ameris Bancorp Bank Ga. $52,000,000 $7,637,438
FNB United Corp Bank N.C. $51,500,000 -$38,750,089
U.S. Century Bank Bank Fla. $50,236,000 -$37,165,592
BancTrust Financial Group Bank Ala. $50,000,000 $10,451,155
State Bankshares Bank N.D. $50,000,000 $8,008,472
First American Bank Corporation Bank Ill. $50,000,000 $15,558,531
Home BancShares, Inc. Bank Ark. $50,000,000 $7,480,555
First South Bancorp, Inc. Bank Tenn. $50,000,000 $15,432,452
Seacoast Banking Corp Bank Fla. $50,000,000 -$954,530
Yadkin Valley Financial Corp Bank N.C. $49,312,000 $3,071,419
Fidelity Southern Corp Bank Ga. $48,200,000 $35,488,022
The Bancorp Bank Del. $45,220,000 $7,410,660
MetroCorp Bancshares Bank Texas $45,000,000 $7,837,096
Cadence Financial Corp Bank Miss. $44,000,000 -$2,015,937
Exchange Bank Bank Calif. $43,000,000 $4,294,527
Southern Community Financial Bank N.C. $42,750,000 $4,156,250
Sterling Bancorp Bank N.Y. $42,000,000 $5,869,108
First Community Bancshares Bank Va. $41,500,000 $1,339,002
PremierWest Bancorp Bank Ore. $41,400,000 $1,046,500
Capital Bank Bank N.C. $41,279,000 $3,973,104
Reliance Bancshares Bank Mo. $40,000,000 $6,049,131
Heritage Commerce Corp Bank Calif. $40,000,000 $6,901,266
Berkshire Hills Bancorp Bank Mass. $40,000,000 $1,961,130
Servis One, Inc. dba BSI Financial Services Mortgage Servicer Pa. $39,376,626 -$39,376,626
Peoples Bancorp Inc. Bank Ohio $39,000,000 $5,701,557
Cascade Financial Corp Bank Wash. $38,970,000 -$21,291,100
OceanFirst Financial Corp Bank N.J. $38,263,000 $2,258,918
QCR Holdings Bank Ill. $38,237,000 $6,049,569
Eagle Bancorp Bank Md. $38,235,000 $6,612,155
Bridgeview Bancorp Bank Ill. $38,000,000 -$24,440,526
Financial Institutions Bank N.Y. $37,515,000 $6,258,719
TIB Financial Corp Bank Fla. $37,000,000 -$23,555,641
First Defiance Financial Corp Bank Ohio $37,000,000 $16,610,301
State Bancorp Bank N.Y. $36,842,000 $5,676,029
Fidelity Financial Corp Bank Kan. $36,282,000 $4,684,780
West Bancorporation Bank Iowa $36,000,000 $5,195,000
Trinity Capital Corporation Bank N.M. $35,539,000 -$894,525
Marquette National Corp Bank Ill. $35,500,000 -$1,664,053
Porter Bancorp Bank Ky. $35,000,000 -$26,716,667
Fremont Bancorporation Bank Calif. $35,000,000 $10,796,066
Enterprise Financial Services Corp Bank Mo. $35,000,000 $7,801,933
The Bank of Kentucky Bank Ky. $34,000,000 $6,091,343
Encore Bancshares Bank Texas $34,000,000 $5,415,959
Southern Bancorp Bank Ark. $33,800,000 $2,757,744
Firstbank Corp Bank Mich. $33,000,000 $5,185,560
First Security Group Bank Tenn. $33,000,000 -$16,684,638
Centrue Financial Bank Mo. $32,668,000 -$21,355,222
Pulaski Financial Corp Bank Mo. $32,538,000 $2,657,846
MutualFirst Financial Bank Ind. $32,382,000 $5,226,789
Parkvale Financial Corp Bank Pa. $31,762,000 $11,020,424
Bank of North Carolina Bank N.C. $31,260,000 $3,880,665
Royal Bancshares of Pennsylvania Bank Pa. $30,407,000 $8,411,564
Hawthorn Bancshares Bank Mo. $30,255,000 $6,594,509
Spirit BankCorp Bank Okla. $30,000,000 -$18,099,925
Bancorp Rhode Island Bank R.I. $30,000,000 $2,341,666
First M&F Corp Bank Miss. $30,000,000 $8,224,510
Tennessee Commerce Bancorp Bank Tenn. $30,000,000 -$26,766,667
Farmers Capital Bank Corp Bank Ky. $30,000,000 -$3,164,171
StellarOne Corp Bank Va. $30,000,000 $7,191,875
First United Corp Bank Md. $30,000,000 $10,487,948
Peapack-Gladstone Financial Bank N.J. $28,685,000 $3,390,741
Citizens Bank, N.A. Mortgage Servicer Va. $28,657,613 -$28,657,613
Bank of Marin Bancorp Bank Calif. $28,000,000 $2,155,095
Colony Bankcorp Bank Ga. $28,000,000 -$1,519,911
CenterState Banks of Florida, Inc. Bank Fla. $27,875,000 $1,408,302
Intermountain Community Bancorp Bank Idaho $27,000,000 $6,955,519
Alliance Financial Corp Bank N.Y. $26,918,000 $1,438,360
Citizens & Northern Corporation Bank Pa. $26,440,000 $2,449,100
Washington Banking Company Bank Wash. $26,380,000 $4,248,344
Patriot Bancshares Bank Texas $26,038,000 $4,402,738
HMN Financial Bank Minn. $26,000,000 $734,787
LNB Bancorp Bank Ohio $25,223,000 $1,939,571
Princeton National Bancorp Bank Ill. $25,083,000 -$22,811,595
Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina Bank N.C. $25,054,000 $2,823,965
HF Financial Corp Bank S.D. $25,000,000 $1,316,666
Horizon Bancorp Bank Ind. $25,000,000 $4,857,322
Rogers Bancshares Bank Ark. $25,000,000 -$24,261,979
The First Bancorp Bank Maine $25,000,000 $4,734,097
Intervest Bancshares Bank N.Y. $25,000,000 $7,927,621
Shore Bancshares Bank Md. $25,000,000 $358,333
VIST Financial Corp Bank Pa. $25,000,000 $5,710,646
First California Financial Group Bank Calif. $25,000,000 $3,810,847
Citizens Bancshares Co. Bank Mo. $24,990,000 -$11,037,619
Vantagesouth Bancshares, Inc. Bank N.C. $24,900,000 $8,915,465
Stearns Financial Services Bank Minn. $24,900,000 $6,595,444
National Bancshares Bank Iowa $24,664,000 -$3,192,912
CBS Banc-Corp Bank Ala. $24,300,000 $3,132,359
Eastern Virginia Bankshares Bank Va. $24,000,000 $4,427,611
Community Trust Financial Corp Bank La. $24,000,000 $4,459,100
Heritage Financial Corp Bank Wash. $24,000,000 $2,953,333
District of Columbia Housing Finance Agency State Housing Orgs D.C. $23,954,860 -$23,954,860
Bridge Capital Holdings Bank Calif. $23,864,000 $4,008,582
Severn Bancorp Bank Md. $23,393,000 $4,276,138
Park Bancorporation Bank Wis. $23,200,000 -$1,179,936
First Citizens Banc Corp Bank Ohio $23,184,000 $2,061,684
TriState Capital Holdings Bank Pa. $23,000,000 $5,642,402
Central Bancorp, Inc. Bank Texas $22,500,000 $8,586,222
Premier Financial Bancorp, Inc. Bank W.Va. $22,252,000 $6,475,239
University Financial Corp, Inc. Bank Minn. $22,115,000 $2,618,727
Residential Credit Solutions Mortgage Servicer Texas $22,063,689 -$22,063,689
Wainwright Bank & Trust Bank Mass. $22,000,000 $1,592,311
Central Community Corp Bank Texas $22,000,000 $3,797,529
Middleburg Financial Corp Bank Va. $22,000,000 $1,287,945
Security Federal Corp Bank S.C. $22,000,000 $3,669,111
First Community Financial Partners, Inc. Bank Ill. $22,000,000 -$3,747,521
Liberty Bancshares, Inc. Bank Mo. $21,900,000 $4,095,453
Blue Valley Ban Corp Bank Kan. $21,750,000 -$272,469
Indiana Community Bancorp Bank Ind. $21,500,000 $5,831,250
Medallion Bank Bank Utah $21,498,000 $2,962,676
BancIndependent Bank Ala. $21,100,000 $3,741,412
FC Holdings Bank Texas $21,042,000 -$1,205,370
AmeriServ Financial Bank Pa. $21,000,000 $3,601,666
Heritage Oaks Bancorp Bank Calif. $21,000,000 $6,241,335
Mercantile Bank Corporation Bank Mich. $21,000,000 $10,631,120
The Baraboo Bancorporation Bank Wis. $20,749,000 -$2,725,169
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. Bank La. $20,699,000 $3,360,477
Unity Bancorp Bank N.J. $20,649,000 $7,364,819
United Bancorp Bank Mich. $20,600,000 -$284,075
Citizens South Banking Corp Bank N.C. $20,500,000 $3,072,379
Florida Bank Group, Inc. Bank Fla. $20,471,000 -$11,290,207
Diamond Bancorp, Inc. Bank Mo. $20,445,000 $656,616
First Western Financial Bank Colo. $20,440,000 $702,315
Commonwealth Bancshares, Inc. Bank Ky. $20,400,000 $1,175,016
Market Street Bancshares, Inc. Bank Ill. $20,300,000 $4,129,250
BNCCORP Bank N.D. $20,093,000 $7,050,012
FHA Refinance Program Fund FHA Refinance Fund D.C. $20,000,000 -$20,000,000
Community First Bancshares Bank Tenn. $20,000,000 $3,628,111
MidSouth Bancorp Bank La. $20,000,000 $2,834,334
C&F Financial Corp Bank Va. $20,000,000 $5,205,958
The ANB Corporation Bank Texas $20,000,000 $3,234,499
First Financial Service Corp Bank Ky. $20,000,000 -$7,663,722
D.L. Evans Bancorp Bank Idaho $19,891,000 $3,795,592
Chambers Bancshares, Inc. Bank Ark. $19,817,000 $12,281,304
Community Bank Shares of Indiana, Inc. Bank Ind. $19,468,000 $3,334,282
First PacTrust Bancorp, Inc. Bank Calif. $19,300,000 $2,997,560
Carver Bancorp Bank N.Y. $18,980,000 $1,978,088
Bar Harbor Bankshares Bank Maine $18,751,000 $1,286,514
HopFed Bancorp Bank Ky. $18,400,000 $3,954,146
Sovereign Bancshares Bank Texas $18,215,000 $3,417,669
Peoples Bancorp Bank Wash. $18,000,000 $3,325,250
First Trust Corporation Bank La. $17,969,000 -$2,664,820
ECB Bancorp Bank N.C. $17,949,000 $4,647,773
Security Capital Corporation Bank Miss. $17,910,000 $3,559,670
First NBC Bank Holding Company Bank La. $17,836,000 $3,197,989
Community First Inc Bank Tenn. $17,806,000 -$10,082,487
Community Bankers Trust Corp Bank Va. $17,680,000 $5,455,879
First Northern Community Bancorp Bank Calif. $17,390,000 $2,553,580
OneFinancial Corporation Bank Ark. $17,300,000 -$6,121,559
Southern First Bancshares Bank S.C. $17,299,000 $2,102,365
Liberty Shares Bank Ga. $17,280,000 -$12,280,440
F&M Financial Corporation (TN) Bank Tenn. $17,243,000 $330,766
Northern States Financial Corp Bank Ill. $17,211,000 -$10,768,828
The First Bancshares Bank Miss. $17,123,000 $1,634,712
Bank of Commerce Holdings Bank Calif. $17,000,000 $2,564,028
First American International Corp Bank N.Y. $17,000,000 $4,029,642
Guaranty Federal Bancshares Bank Mo. $17,000,000 $4,887,871
F&M Financial Corporation Bank N.C. $17,000,000 $3,119,745
White River Bancshares Company Bank Ark. $16,800,000 $2,602,245
Timberland Bancorp Bank Wash. $16,641,000 $2,420,171
Codorus Valley Bancorp Bank Pa. $16,500,000 $2,678,479
First Federal Bancshares of Arkansas Bank Ark. $16,500,000 -$9,929,375
Caliber Home Loans, Inc. Mortgage Servicer Okla. $16,411,289 -$16,411,289
1st Financial Services Corp Bank N.C. $16,369,000 -$7,139,052
Parke Bancorp Bank N.J. $16,288,000 $77,555
Pacific City Financial Corp Bank Calif. $16,200,000 $1,526,384
Valley Financial Corp Bank Va. $16,019,000 $5,292,673
CoastalSouth Bancshares, Inc. Bank S.C. $16,015,000 -$1,757,512
Carolina Bank Holdings Bank N.C. $16,000,000 $3,941,789
MidWest One Financial Group Bank Iowa $16,000,000 $2,933,333
State Capital Corp. Bank Miss. $15,750,000 $2,981,209
Selene Finance, LP Mortgage Servicer Texas $15,698,051 -$15,698,051
Community West Bancshares Bank Calif. $15,600,000 -$1,258,860
Stockmens Financial Corporation Bank S.D. $15,568,000 $2,533,554
Tri-County Financial Corp Bank Md. $15,540,000 $3,113,117
BankFirst Capital Corp Bank Miss. $15,500,000 $2,992,470
First Reliance Bancshares Bank S.C. $15,349,000 -$2,354,941
Grandsouth Bancorporation Bank S.C. $15,319,000 $2,306,918
Centra Financial Holdings Bank W.Va. $15,000,000 $922,937
Broadway Financial Corporation Bank Calif. $15,000,000 $1,379,122
The Landrum Company Bank Mo. $15,000,000 $2,580,291
River Valley Bancorporation Bank Wis. $15,000,000 $4,928,275
Foresight Financial Group, Inc. Bank Ill. $15,000,000 $3,670,292
Suburban Illinois Bancorp, Inc. Bank Ill. $15,000,000 $10,244,054
LSB Corp Bank Mass. $15,000,000 $1,260,000
Business Bancshares Bank Mo. $15,000,000 $3,707,709
Nicolet Bankshares Bank Wis. $14,964,000 $2,940,842
EQUITY BANCSHARES, INC. (FIRST COMMUNITY BANCSHARES, INC. (KS)) Bank Kan. $14,800,000 $1,793,061
Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp Bank Va. $14,738,000 -$7,747,407
Monarch Financial Holdings Bank Va. $14,700,000 $1,003,166
Tidelands Bancshares Bank S.C. $14,448,000 -$4,267,800
United Bank Corporation Bank Ga. $14,400,000 $4,482,079
Guaranty Capital Corporation Bank Miss. $14,000,000 $3,687,282
First National Corporation Bank Va. $13,900,000 $1,429,331
Magna Bank Bank Tenn. $13,795,000 $2,351,468
Bancorp Financial, Inc. Bank Ill. $13,669,000 $1,926,738
Sword Financial Corporation Bank Wis. $13,644,000 $3,375,233
First Texas BHC Bank Texas $13,533,000 $2,539,389
M&T Bank Mortgage Servicer N.Y. $13,513,842 -$13,513,842
Oak Valley Bancorp Bank Calif. $13,500,000 $2,371,250
WashingtonFirst Bankshares, Inc. Bank Va. $13,475,000 $1,842,319
LCNB Corp Bank Ohio $13,400,000 $1,127,390
Bank of the Carolinas Corporation Bank N.C. $13,179,000 -$8,844,573
Morrill Bancshares Bank Kan. $13,000,000 $2,429,122
SouthCrest Financial Group, Inc. Bank Ga. $12,900,000 $209,014
HCSB Financial Corporation Bank S.C. $12,895,000 -$11,675,348
Community First Bancshares, Inc. Bank Ark. $12,725,000 $3,848,975
Adbanc Bank Neb. $12,720,000 $2,351,769
Regents Bancshares, Inc. Bank Wash. $12,700,000 $1,894,340
Peoples Bancorporation Bank S.C. $12,660,000 $2,702,912
Community Financial Corp Bank Va. $12,643,000 $3,464,224
Bankers' Bank of the West Bank Colo. $12,639,000 $4,458,994
Meridian Bank Bank Pa. $12,535,000 $1,153,103
Security State Bancshares Bank Mo. $12,500,000 $2,388,681
PeoplesSouth Bancshares Bank Ga. $12,325,000 $3,661,000
Navy Federal Credit Union Mortgage Servicer Va. $12,083,019 -$12,083,019
OneUnited Bank Bank Mass. $12,063,000 -$11,969,177
Duke Financial Group, Inc. Bank Minn. $12,000,000 $5,424,286
Blue Ridge Bancshares Bank Mo. $12,000,000 -$564,957
Wachusett Financial Services, Inc. Bank Mass. $12,000,000 $2,731,826
The Queensborough Company Bank Ga. $12,000,000 $1,065,246
1st Constitution Bancorp Bank N.J. $12,000,000 $1,433,242
FNB Bancorp Bank Calif. $12,000,000 $2,267,700
First Manitowoc Bancorp Bank Wis. $12,000,000 $837,983
Alliance Financial Services Bank Minn. $12,000,000 -$2,193,864
Farmers Enterprises, Inc. Bank Kan. $12,000,000 $3,698,747
Two Rivers Financial Group Bank Iowa $12,000,000 $2,075,133
Plumas Bancorp Bank Calif. $11,949,000 $1,815,140
Citizens Bancshares Bank Ga. $11,841,000 $2,000,222
DNB Financial Corp Bank Pa. $11,750,000 $1,933,277
M&F Bancorp Bank N.C. $11,735,000 -$185,805
TCB Holding Company Bank Texas $11,730,000 -$11,039,168
21st Mortgage Corporation Mortgage Servicer Tenn. $11,711,237 -$11,711,237
Pacific Coast Bankers' Bancshares Bank Calif. $11,600,000 $2,221,963
Cecil Bancorp Bank Md. $11,560,000 -$10,163,012
Western Illinois Bancshares Bank Ill. $11,422,000 $1,772,412
Central Virginia Bankshares Bank Va. $11,385,000 -$7,584,344
First Community Corp Bank S.C. $11,350,000 $2,075,979
Liberty Financial Services Bank La. $11,334,000 $1,132,862
Central Jersey Bancorp Bank N.J. $11,300,000 $1,390,020
Steele Street Bank Corporation Bank Colo. $11,019,000 $2,059,672
Mackinac Financial Corporation Bank Mich. $11,000,000 $2,521,828
Brotherhood Bancshares, Inc. Bank Kan. $11,000,000 $1,845,585
Allegiance Bancshares, Inc. Bank Texas $11,000,000 $4,971,339
Stonebridge Financial Corp Bank Pa. $10,973,000 -$8,320,183
First Capital Bancorp Bank Va. $10,958,000 $998,713
Ridgestone Financial Services Bank Wis. $10,900,000 -$1,269,893
First Southern Bancorp Bank Fla. $10,900,000 $1,363,468
BCSB Bancorp Bank Md. $10,800,000 $2,571,500
Presidio Bank Bank Calif. $10,800,000 $277,697
Security State Bank Holding Company Bank N.D. $10,750,000 $3,091,203
First Community Bank Corp of America Bank Fla. $10,685,000 -$2,185,751
Crosstown Holding Company Bank Minn. $10,650,000 $2,848,330
Northwest Bancorporation Bank Wash. $10,500,000 $1,391,847
Katahdin Bankshares Bank Maine $10,449,000 $1,974,048
1st Enterprise Bank Bank Calif. $10,400,000 $1,348,156
Citizens Bancorp Bank Calif. $10,400,000 -$10,176,429
Mission Valley Bancorp Bank Calif. $10,336,000 $1,895,669
United Bancorporation of Alabama, Inc. Bank Ala. $10,300,000 $2,160,535
Illinois State Bancorp, Inc. Bank Ill. $10,272,000 $1,564,113
North Central Bancshares Bank Iowa $10,200,000 $2,094,583
Midland States Bancorp Bank Ill. $10,189,000 $1,017,989
Heritage Bankshares, Inc. Bank Va. $10,103,000 $1,250,284
Stewardship Financial Corp Bank N.J. $10,000,000 $1,400,453
First Bankers Trustshares Bank Ill. $10,000,000 $1,941,221
Century Financial Services Corporation Bank N.M. $10,000,000 $3,186,960
Central Bancorp Bank Mass. $10,000,000 $3,886,111
Center Bancorp Bank N.J. $10,000,000 $1,586,667
First Litchfield Financial Corp Bank Conn. $10,000,000 $2,147,768
Northway Financial Bank N.H. $10,000,000 $1,930,625
New Hampshire Thrift Bancshares Bank N.H. $10,000,000 $2,041,266
NCAL Bancorp Bank Calif. $10,000,000 -$4,788,973
1st United Bancorp Bank Fla. $10,000,000 $870,902
HomeTown Bankshares Corporation Bank Va. $10,000,000 $998,306
BOH Holdings Bank Texas $10,000,000 $1,783,777
ColoEast Bankshares Bank Colo. $10,000,000 $670,783
Mid-Wisconsin Financial Services Bank Wis. $10,000,000 $2,844,226
Mid Penn Bancorp Bank Pa. $10,000,000 $2,070,978
Uwharrie Capital Corp Bank N.C. $10,000,000 $2,916,040
Blackhawk Bancorp Bank Wis. $10,000,000 $1,344,361
Greer Bancshares Bank S.C. $9,993,000 $3,700,112
Regent Bancorp Bank Fla. $9,982,000 -$1,226,982
Penn Liberty Financial Corp Bank Pa. $9,960,000 $1,785,689
Coastal Banking Company Bank Fla. $9,950,000 $1,117,898
Universal Bancorp Bank Ind. $9,900,000 $2,265,548
PSB Financial Corporation Bank La. $9,734,000 $1,704,291
TCB Corporation Bank S.C. $9,720,000 $1,891,380
Southern Missouri Bancorp Bank Mo. $9,550,000 $3,954,764
Moneytree Corporation Bank Tenn. $9,516,000 $1,775,481
Premier Bank Holding Company Bank Fla. $9,500,000 -$9,032,588
Florida Business BancGroup Bank Fla. $9,495,000 $1,814,751
City National Bancshares Corporation Bank N.J. $9,439,000 -$6,930,391
Cache Valley Banking Company Bank Utah $9,407,000 $1,267,335
FCB Bancorp Bank Ky. $9,294,000 $1,862,235
Freedom First Federal Credit Union Bank Va. $9,278,000 $501,527
Provident Community Bancshares Bank S.C. $9,266,000 -$3,626,609
Carrollton Bancorp Bank Md. $9,201,000 $2,187,959
First Priority Financial Corp Bank Pa. $9,175,000 $773,070
Elmira Savings Bank Bank N.Y. $9,090,000 $2,705,867
Community Partners Bancorp Bank N.J. $9,000,000 $1,598,750
HPK Financial Corporation Bank Ill. $9,000,000 $1,940,554
Delmar Bancorp Bank Md. $9,000,000 -$2,401,669
UBT Banchares Bank Kan. $8,950,000 $1,684,911
RCB Financial Corporation Bank Ga. $8,900,000 $323,155
Salisbury Bancorp Bank Conn. $8,816,000 $1,284,960
Citizens First Corp Bank Ky. $8,779,000 $3,457,420
Farmers Bank Bank Va. $8,752,000 $2,644,203
Equity Bancshares Bank Kan. $8,750,000 $2,688,457
United American Bank Bank Calif. $8,700,000 -$5,217,343
Georgia Commerce Bancshares Bank Ga. $8,700,000 $1,385,366
First Freedom Bancshares, Inc. Bank Tenn. $8,700,000 $929,360
Sonoma Valley Bancorp Bank Calif. $8,653,000 -$8,155,836
BancStar, Inc. Bank Mo. $8,600,000 $2,101,460
Summit State Bank Bank Calif. $8,500,000 $1,430,625
Great River Holding Company Bank Minn. $8,400,000 $2,380,775
HomEq Servicing Mortgage Servicer Calif. $8,308,819 -$8,308,819
Private Bancorporation Bank Minn. $8,222,000 $2,722,635
Annapolis Bancorp Bank Md. $8,152,000 $5,342,247
F&M Bancshares Bank Tenn. $8,144,000 $1,261,391
IBC Bancorp, Inc. Bank Ill. $8,086,000 $2,323,935
Fairfax County Federal Credit Union Bank Va. $8,044,000 $1,121,244
Syringa Bancorp Bank Idaho $8,000,000 -$7,746,878
The Magnolia State Corporation Bank Miss. $7,922,000 $1,354,393
First Eagle Bancshares, Inc. Bank Ill. $7,875,000 $2,362,845
Banco Popular de Puerto Rico Mortgage Servicer Puerto Rico $7,873,316 -$7,873,316
MS Financial Bank Texas $7,723,000 $1,483,290
Commonwealth Business Bank Bank Calif. $7,701,000 $750,110
Metro City Bank Bank Ga. $7,700,000 $1,105,995
Valley Commerce Bancorp Bank Calif. $7,700,000 $1,703,403
Oak Ridge Financial Services Bank N.C. $7,700,000 $811,025
First Bank Mortgage Servicer Mo. $7,579,339 -$7,579,339
First Gothenburg Bancshares Bank Neb. $7,570,000 $1,044,884
Country Bank Shares Bank Neb. $7,525,000 $1,256,210
BNB Financial Services Corp Bank N.Y. $7,500,000 $2,276,052
Emclaire Financial Corp Bank Pa. $7,500,000 $1,045,904
Gulfstream Bancshares Bank Fla. $7,500,000 $1,251,543
The Little Bank Bank N.C. $7,500,000 $1,646,330
Centrix Bank & Trust Bank N.H. $7,500,000 $1,387,792
GulfSouth Private Bank Bank Fla. $7,500,000 -$6,818,689
Gregory Funding LLC Mortgage Servicer Ore. $7,428,469 -$7,428,469
Somerset Hills Bancorp Bank N.J. $7,414,000 $402,685
Avenue Financial Holdings Bank Tenn. $7,400,000 $1,398,415
First Sound Bank Bank Wash. $7,400,000 -$3,369,056
First BancTrust Corp Bank Ill. $7,350,000 $1,658,951
Western Community Bancshares Bank Calif. $7,290,000 -$6,735,917
FFW Corp Bank Ind. $7,289,000 $1,152,840
Millenium Bancorp Bank Colo. $7,260,000 -$2,963,577
Central Federal Corp Bank Ohio $7,225,000 -$3,612,882
NC Bancorp Bank Ill. $7,186,000 -$4,572,286
TriSummit Bank Bank Tenn. $7,002,000 -$505,582
Old Line Bancshares Bank Md. $7,000,000 $438,888
Chicago Shore Corporation Bank Ill. $7,000,000 $2,054,225
Fidelity Bancorp, Inc. Bank Pa. $7,000,000 $1,388,333
Heartland Bancshares, Inc. Bank Ind. $7,000,000 $1,321,471
Hamilton State Bancshares Bank Ga. $7,000,000 $1,169,166
Central Valley Community Bancorp Bank Calif. $7,000,000 $1,077,516
Community Financial Shares, Inc. Bank Ill. $6,970,000 -$2,729,256
Guaranty Bancorp Bank N.H. $6,920,000 $1,315,040
Idaho Bancorp Bank Idaho $6,900,000 -$6,344,327
Security California Bancorp Bank Calif. $6,815,000 $1,337,698
Pierce County Bancorp Bank Wash. $6,800,000 -$6,592,053
Harbor Bankshares Corporation Bank Md. $6,800,000 -$5,517,257
Monarch Community Bancorp Bank Mich. $6,785,000 -$1,976,879
Premier Bancorp Bank Ill. $6,784,000 -$6,043,885
Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. Bank N.Y. $6,771,000 $1,205,330
Highlands Independent Bancshares Bank Fla. $6,700,000 -$534,688
Fidelity Federal Bancorp Bank Ind. $6,657,000 $563,909
Alarion Financial Services Bank Fla. $6,514,000 $1,160,003
Pacific International Bancorp Bank Wash. $6,500,000 $1,437,745
Catskill Hudson Bancorp Bank N.Y. $6,500,000 $948,073
Liberty Bancshares, Inc. (TX) Bank Texas $6,500,000 $1,947,271
Biscayne Bancshares, Inc. Bank Fla. $6,400,000 $1,871,974
First Intercontinental Bank Bank Ga. $6,398,000 -$2,229,115
Premier Financial Corp Bank Iowa $6,349,000 $2,429,669
Citizens Commerce Bancshares Bank Ky. $6,300,000 -$1,319,742
Carter Federal Credit Union Bank La. $6,300,000 $690,172
Cardinal Bancorp II, Inc. Bank Mo. $6,251,000 $1,296,478
First Vernon Bancshares Bank Ala. $6,245,000 $946,293
Randolph Bank & Trust Company Bank N.C. $6,229,000 $961,593
Moscow Bancshares Bank Tenn. $6,216,000 $1,516,432
Union Bank & Trust Company Bank N.C. $6,191,000 $840,293
OSB Financial Services Bank Texas $6,100,000 $1,562,316
Centric Financial Corporation Bank Pa. $6,056,000 $683,821
Beach Business Bank Bank Calif. $6,000,000 $1,263,316
American State Bancshares Bank Kan. $6,000,000 $1,220,142
Peninsula Bank Holding Co Bank Calif. $6,000,000 $1,563,057
ICB Financial Bank Calif. $6,000,000 $1,194,458
IBW Financial Corporation Bank D.C. $6,000,000 $822,067
Gateway Bancshares Bank Ga. $6,000,000 $1,260,795
Patapsco Bancorp Bank Md. $6,000,000 $3,260,824
McLeod Bancshares, Inc. Bank Minn. $6,000,000 $870,433
Howard Bancorp Bank Md. $5,983,000 $1,136,793
Rising Sun Bancorp Bank Md. $5,983,000 -$5,787,363
IA Bancorp, Inc. Bank N.J. $5,976,000 $991,741
Leader Bancorp Bank Mass. $5,830,000 $894,016
Security Business Bancorp Bank Calif. $5,803,000 $1,085,019
Central Bancshares Bank Texas $5,800,000 $1,059,177
FPB Bancorp Bank Fla. $5,800,000 -$5,526,112
CFBanc Corporation Bank D.C. $5,781,000 $492,349
Seaside National Bank & Trust Bank Fla. $5,677,000 $844,349
United Financial Banking Companies Bank Va. $5,658,000 $991,965
Waukesha Bankshares Bank Wis. $5,625,000 $773,892
Boscobel Bancorp, Inc Bank Wis. $5,586,000 $1,423,244
One Georgia Bank Bank Ga. $5,500,000 -$5,500,000
First Southwest Bancorporation Bank Colo. $5,500,000 -$140,227
Valley Community Bank Bank Calif. $5,500,000 -$2,502,909
Legacy Bancorp Bank Wis. $5,498,000 -$5,142,921
American Bancorp of Illinois, Inc. Bank Ill. $5,457,000 $1,092,073
Highlands State Bank Bank N.J. $5,450,000 $761,927
The Private Bank of California Bank Calif. $5,450,000 $1,024,753
Connecticut Bank and Trust Company Bank Conn. $5,448,000 $1,454,866
BankAsiana Bank N.J. $5,250,000 $315,584
Midtown Bank & Trust Company Bank Ga. $5,222,000 -$1,651,863
First Choice Bank Bank Calif. $5,146,000 $678,521
Mission Community Bancorp Bank Calif. $5,116,000 $759,584
Capital Commerce Bancorp, Inc. Bank Wis. $5,100,000 -$2,335,066
Franklin Bancorp, Inc. Bank Mo. $5,097,000 -$677,129
First Resource Bank Bank Pa. $5,017,000 $714,794
AmFirst Financial Services, Inc. Bank Neb. $5,000,000 $1,523,255
Southern Illinois Bancorp Bank Ill. $5,000,000 $955,472
Blue River Bancshares Bank Ind. $5,000,000 -$4,470,895
First Express of Nebraska Bank Neb. $5,000,000 $1,074,313
BlackRidge Financial, Inc. Bank N.D. $5,000,000 $1,127,326
Covenant Financial Corporation Bank Miss. $5,000,000 $1,594,635
Financial Security Corp Bank Wyo. $5,000,000 $914,597
Commerce National Bank Bank Calif. $5,000,000 $602,969
Germantown Capital Corporation Bank Tenn. $4,967,000 $674,940
First ULB Corp Bank Calif. $4,900,000 $311,020
York Traditions Bank Bank Pa. $4,871,000 $834,023
Southern Heritage Bancshares, Inc. Bank Tenn. $4,862,000 $856,113
First Menasha Bancshares Bank Wis. $4,797,000 $916,867
BNC Financial Group Bank Conn. $4,797,000 $876,922
Alaska Pacific Bankshares Bank Alaska $4,781,000 $2,720,884
Monument Bank Bank Md. $4,734,000 $889,960
PNC Bank, National Association Mortgage Servicer Pa. $4,724,089 -$4,724,089
Virginia Company Bank Bank Va. $4,700,000 -$955,554
Western Reserve Bancorp, Inc Bank Ohio $4,700,000 $1,142,202
Capital Bancorp Bank Md. $4,700,000 $752,281
CalWest Bancorp Bank Calif. $4,656,000 $629,163
MorEquity, Inc. Mortgage Servicer Ind. $4,628,164 -$4,628,164
Lafayette Bancorp Bank Miss. $4,551,000 $852,068
Hope Federal Credit Union Bank Miss. $4,520,000 $953,720
Georgia Primary Bank Bank Ga. $4,500,000 -$2,873,543
First Colebrook Bancorp Bank N.H. $4,500,000 $839,489
Mainline Bancorp, Inc. Bank Pa. $4,500,000 $763,190
Puget Sound Bank Bank Wash. $4,500,000 $855,158
Community Pride Bank Corporation Bank Minn. $4,400,000 $627,765
CBB Bancorp Bank Ga. $4,397,000 $585,145
Pinnacle Bank Holding Company Bank Fla. $4,389,000 -$3,404,001
Metropolitan Capital Bancorp, Inc. Bank Ill. $4,388,000 $1,325,197
BANK OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, N.A. (FIRST BUSINESS BANK, N.A.) Bank Calif. $4,243,000 $450,275
Northeast Bancorp Bank Maine $4,227,000 $1,262,384
Pacific Coast National Bancorp Bank Calif. $4,120,000 -$4,101,913
CB Holding Corp. Bank Ill. $4,114,000 -$3,842,421
Community Bank of the Bay Bank Calif. $4,060,000 $706,391
Pacific Commerce Bank Bank Calif. $4,060,000 -$1,018,330
The Bank of Currituck Bank N.C. $4,021,000 -$2,108,316
Providence Bank Bank N.C. $4,000,000 $596,313
Hilltop Community Bancorp Bank N.J. $4,000,000 $467,049
California Bank of Commerce Bank Calif. $4,000,000 $755,900
SV Financial, Inc. Bank Ill. $4,000,000 $721,382
Capital Pacific Bancorp Bank Ore. $4,000,000 $804,256
Carolina Trust Bank Bank N.C. $4,000,000 -$5,548
Grand Capital Corporation Bank Okla. $4,000,000 $717,145
Investors Financial Corporation of Pettis County Bank Mo. $4,000,000 -$3,825,676
Naples Bancorp Bank Fla. $4,000,000 -$3,043,934
Enterprise Financial Services Group Bank Pa. $4,000,000 $680,205
Todd Bancshares Bank Ky. $4,000,000 $1,210,672
KS Bancorp, Inc. Bank N.C. $4,000,000 $137,336
Premier Service Bank Bank Calif. $4,000,000 $300,522
SBT Bancorp Bank Conn. $4,000,000 $717,144
Santa Lucia Bancorp Bank Calif. $4,000,000 -$868,889
Texas National Bancorporation Bank Texas $3,981,000 $494,307
Community Business Bank Bank Calif. $3,976,000 $698,053
The Golden 1 Credit Union Mortgage Servicer Calif. $3,954,890 -$3,954,890
Fidelity Bancorp, Inc (LA) Bank La. $3,942,000 $1,462,924
Peoples Bancshares of TN Bank Tenn. $3,900,000 -$135,012
Community Bancshares, Inc. Bank Ariz. $3,872,000 $1,325,157
Redwood Capital Bancorp Bank Calif. $3,800,000 $710,626
Tifton Banking Company Bank Ga. $3,800,000 -$3,576,792
Pascack Community Bank Bank N.J. $3,756,000 $741,313
First Financial Bancshares Bank Kan. $3,756,000 $807,302
Financial Services of Winger, Inc. Bank Minn. $3,742,000 $745,324
Pathway Bancorp Bank Neb. $3,727,000 $901,862
Triad Bancorp Bank Mo. $3,700,000 $686,326
Patterson Bancshares Bank La. $3,690,000 $1,002,028
AMB Financial Corp Bank Ind. $3,674,000 $713,576
Allied First Bancorp Bank Ill. $3,652,000 -$2,198,246
FNF Servicing, Inc Mortgage Servicer Va. $3,578,915 -$3,578,915
CedarStone Bank Bank Tenn. $3,564,000 $1,108,099
Merchants and Manufacturers Bank Corporation Bank Ill. $3,510,000 $600,668
AB&T Financial Corp Bank N.C. $3,500,000 -$2,173,585
Mercantile Capital Corp Bank Mass. $3,500,000 $650,816
First Alliance Bancshares Bank Tenn. $3,422,000 -$418,323
Birmingham Bloomfield Bancshares Bank Mich. $3,379,000 $424,024
Bainbridge Bancshares, Inc. Bank Ga. $3,372,000 $273,637
Madison Financial Corp Bank Ky. $3,370,000 $377,299
First Bank of Charleston Bank W.Va. $3,345,000 $615,105
Ally Bank Mortgage Servicer Utah $3,333,892 -$3,333,892
California Oaks State Bank Bank Calif. $3,300,000 $502,219
Mountain Valley Bancshares, Inc. Bank Ga. $3,300,000 $769,981
Bancorp of Okolona, Inc. Bank Miss. $3,297,000 $250,976
Congaree Bancshares Bank S.C. $3,285,000 $160,825
Treaty Oak Bancorp Bank Texas $3,268,000 -$2,575,585
Border Federal Credit Union Bank Texas $3,260,000 $263,698
Hometown Bancorp of Alabama Bank Ala. $3,250,000 $964,208
FPB Financial Corp Bank La. $3,240,000 $383,721
First Independence Corporation Bank Mich. $3,223,000 -$402,739
Oregon Bancorp Bank Ore. $3,216,000 $950,808
Resurgent Capital Services L.P. Mortgage Servicer S.C. $3,202,721 -$3,202,721
Kilmichael Bancorp, Inc. Bank Miss. $3,154,000 $602,679
Crazy Woman Creek Bancorp Bank Wyo. $3,100,000 $1,125,739
Fortune Financial Corporation Bank Mo. $3,100,000 $568,929
Grand Mountain Bancshares, Inc. Bank Colo. $3,076,000 $852,001
Lone Star Bank Bank Texas $3,072,000 -$1,071,119
Sound Banking Company Bank N.C. $3,070,000 $566,309
FBHC Holding Company Bank Colo. $3,035,000 -$2,230,408
Freeport Bancshares Bank Ill. $3,000,000 $1,393,492
Bank of Commerce Bank N.C. $3,000,000 $87,573
Tennessee Valley Financial Holdings Bank Tenn. $3,000,000 $331,713
Clover Community Bankshares Bank S.C. $3,000,000 $318,586
Citizens Community Bank Bank Va. $3,000,000 $574,645
Frontier Bancshares Bank Texas $3,000,000 $408,191
St. Johns Bancshares Bank Mo. $3,000,000 $2,031,221
Marine Bank & Trust Company Bank Fla. $3,000,000 -$653,787
PGB Holdings Bank Ill. $3,000,000 $555,041
Layton Park Financial Group Bank Wis. $3,000,000 -$67,838
Fidelity Resources Company Bank Texas $3,000,000 $503,795
Redwood Financial Bank Minn. $2,995,000 $575,812
F & C Bancorp, Inc. Bank Mo. $2,993,000 $930,566
Alliance Bancshares Bank Ga. $2,986,000 $595,401
Santa Clara Valley Bank Bank Calif. $2,900,000 -$178,674
Berkshire Bancorp Bank Pa. $2,892,000 $509,124
US Metro Bank Bank Calif. $2,861,000 $604,216
RoundPoint Mortgage Servicing Corporation Mortgage Servicer N.C. $2,830,990 -$2,830,990
Santa Cruz Community Credit Union Bank Calif. $2,828,000 $135,430
Omega Capital Corp Bank Colo. $2,816,000 $587,602
Prairie Star Bancshares Bank Kan. $2,800,000 $321,271
Cooperative Center Federal Credit Union Bank Calif. $2,799,000 -$2,063,560
Tri-State Bank of Memphis Bank Tenn. $2,795,000 $431,224
SouthFirst Bancshares Bank Ala. $2,760,000 $492,464
Worthington Financial Holdings, Inc. Bank Ala. $2,720,000 $60,391
DeSoto County Bank Bank Miss. $2,681,000 $93,101
Bank of George Bank Nev. $2,672,000 -$1,388,060
Regent Capital Corporation Bank Okla. $2,655,000 $480,328
Community First Guam Federal Credit Union Bank Guam $2,650,000 $423,116
Shreveport Federal Credit Union Bank La. $2,646,000 $118,776
Manhattan Bancshares, Inc. Bank Ill. $2,639,000 $822,607
Deerfield Financial Corporation Bank Wis. $2,639,000 $644,339
Scotiabank de Puerto Rico Mortgage Servicer Puerto Rico $2,603,545 -$2,603,545
Community Investors Bancorp Bank Ohio $2,600,000 $515,616
Northern State Bank Bank N.J. $2,571,000 $416,782
Goldwater Bank Bank Ariz. $2,568,000 -$1,074,250
Community 1st Bank Bank Calif. $2,550,000 $349,660
Planet Home Lending, LLC Mortgage Servicer Conn. $2,510,813 -$2,510,813
Atlantic City Federal Credit Union Bank Wyo. $2,500,000 $100,277
Pyramid Federal Credit Union Bank Ariz. $2,500,000 $216,972
Plato Holdings Inc. Bank Minn. $2,500,000 $603,620
AmeriBank Holding Company Bank Okla. $2,492,000 $468,023
Grand Financial Corporation Bank Miss. $2,443,320 $1,425,153
CSRA Bank Corp Bank Ga. $2,400,000 $347,755
Green Circle Investments Bank Iowa $2,400,000 $636,022
Citizens Bank & Trust Company, Established 1945 Bank La. $2,400,000 $3,330
Brogan Bankshares, Inc. Bank Wis. $2,400,000 $622,880
NEMO Bancshares Inc. Bank Mo. $2,330,000 $869,347
IBT Bancorp Bank Texas $2,295,000 $641,463
Columbine Capital Corp Bank Colo. $2,260,000 $429,480
CenterBank Bank Ohio $2,250,000 $94,348
Alternatives Federal Credit Union Bank N.Y. $2,234,000 $100,903
Union Financial Corporation Bank N.M. $2,179,000 $460,872
Marix Servicing, LLC Mortgage Servicer Ariz. $2,162,025 -$2,162,025
Security Bancshares of Pulaski County Bank Mo. $2,152,000 -$134,090
Titonka Bancshares Bank Iowa $2,117,000 $452,493
Ojai Community Bank Bank Calif. $2,080,000 $574,759
Mortgage Center LLC Mortgage Servicer Mich. $2,065,523 -$2,065,523
Market Bancorporation Bank Minn. $2,060,000 $272,249
The Victory Bank Bank Pa. $2,046,000 $276,184
Atlantic Bancshares, Inc. Bank S.C. $2,000,000 $528,554
Surrey Bancorp Bank N.C. $2,000,000 $314,972
TCNB Financial Corp Bank Ohio $2,000,000 $384,611
Nationwide Bankshares, Inc. Bank Neb. $2,000,000 $276,190
Northwest Commercial Bank Bank Wash. $1,992,000 $388,393
Fresno First Bank Bank Calif. $1,968,000 $469,100
Wescom Central Credit Union Mortgage Servicer Calif. $1,949,423 -$1,949,423
Virginia Community Capital, Inc. Bank Va. $1,915,000 $220,757
Hometown Bancshares Bank Ky. $1,900,000 $329,804
Merchants and Planters Bancshares Bank Tenn. $1,881,000 $350,562
Monadnock Bancorp Bank N.H. $1,834,000 $505,348
Seacoast Commerce Bank Bank Calif. $1,800,000 $353,780
American Premier Bancorp Bank Calif. $1,800,000 $252,682
Franklin Credit Management Corporation Mortgage Servicer N.J. $1,751,287 -$1,751,287
Southern Chautauqua Federal Credit Union Bank N.Y. $1,709,000 $93,139
BCB Holding Company Bank Ala. $1,706,000 $609,854
Maryland Financial Bank Bank Md. $1,700,000 -$832,754
Manhattan Bancorp Bank Calif. $1,700,000 $129,711
Signature Bancshares Bank Texas $1,700,000 $294,588
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Gateway Community Federal Credit Union Bank Mont. $1,657,000 $62,690
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Union Settlement Federal Credit Union Bank N.Y. $295,000 -$407
Silver State Schools Credit Union Mortgage Servicer Nev. $285,844 -$285,844
AmTrust Bank, A Division of New York Community Bank Mortgage Servicer Ohio $285,113 -$285,113
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Episcopal Community Federal Credit Union Bank Calif. $100,000 $15,067
Hill District Federal Credit Union Bank Pa. $100,000 $13,650
Pathfinder Bank Mortgage Servicer N.Y. $86,415 -$86,415
Home Servicing, LLC Mortgage Servicer La. $78,158 -$78,158
Thurston Union of Low Income People (TULIP) Cooperative Credit Union Bank Wash. $75,000 $5,593
Colorado Federal Savings Bank Mortgage Servicer Colo. $69,026 -$69,026
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HomeStar Bank & Financial Services Mortgage Servicer Ill. $13,322 -$13,322
First National Bank of Pennsylvania Mortgage Servicer Pa. $13,036 -$13,036
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Land/Home Financial Services, Inc. Mortgage Servicer Calif. $2,149 -$2,149
Guaranty Bank Mortgage Servicer Minn. $1,916 -$1,916
Investors Bank Mortgage Servicer N.J. $1,750 -$1,750



Medium-sized compared to the current one perhaps.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:56 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
Jalap wrote:
Well, it is't really self-correcting and self-balancing.
Every time there's a major crisis, it needs government money to not totally collapse.


This is surely in the eye of the beholder, but the government did not create the wealth in 2000-2020. Private companies did. Many people including Larry Summers thought the economy could never recover from 2008 without massive government stimulus. There was a medium sized stimulus, but otherwise corporate profits recovered strongly after 2008, pushing tax receipts to record highs in the US. It is true there was a TARP program in 2008, but it was paid back.

2020 appears to be worse and potentially more long term dangerous IMO. But until this point, the stock market was doing absolutely fine based on healthy corporate profits. I tend to think that in the future, corporate profits will be high again. Or, perhaps there will be fundamental social change away from a market system toward a "panel of ministers" approach, which has been used in Africa for many years.


Oh well, yes, the "medium-sized" bailout:


Medium-sized compared to the current one perhaps.


You appear to be quoting TARP, which was not really a stimulus but an emergency liquidity thing from federal treasury. TARP was paid back. Actually via Fannie and Freddie, I believe it has yielded a profit to the government by now. So, in terms of money, in some ways it was not even medium sized. There is an ok article here from a conservative source that quotes a cost of $34 billion https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/r ... e-de-rugy/ but that was in 2012, and I imagine, although I don't know exactly, that Fannie and Freddie dividends since 2012 have been about $300 billion more profit to the federal government, not quite doubling the government's money, but pretty close. TARP ended up more successful than anyone thought possible.

By "stimulus," I was talking about the $1 trillion stimulus package in 2009. We just doubled that in the 2020 stimulus, and that was only a down payment on what we will need to do going forward. Here is a decent looking article comparing the two. https://www.complianceweek.com/regulato ... 88.article
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:24 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
4.4 million additional jobless claims in the U.S., and Futures, European shares are up.

Total insanity.

Don't give me the "it's priced in" remark, because shares are still trading for more than the companies are worth even in a good economy, let alone the current situation.

The only thing priced in is an impending second crash.


Not true, a lot of the market is bouyed by money leaving muni and state bonds. They’re heading for exits there due to budgets being cratered by collapsing tax revenue and unsustainable pensions. They’re will lots of blood in those markets.

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-inv ... SL1N2BC2FT


This happened during the GFC as well, but it didn't bankrupt anybody in the end.

Also, why would you dump bonds issued by authorities receiving tax revenue that you know will be paid back eventually even if you have to sit through a few defaults, to purchase equity in corporations in distress that are not generating revenues?

During the GFC, people fled those bonds to gzet into gold and federal bonds, German bonds.

But why oh why are people buying into stocks?
Also, why does the taxpayer need to bailout airlines when they can simply issue new shares considering the enthusiasm of the equity markets?


Going forward, we will either see the stock market continue to be totally disconnected or we can experience a crash "like there's never been one before."
Next week will be interesting.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6022
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:53 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
4.4 million additional jobless claims in the U.S., and Futures, European shares are up.

Total insanity.

Don't give me the "it's priced in" remark, because shares are still trading for more than the companies are worth even in a good economy, let alone the current situation.

The only thing priced in is an impending second crash.


Not true, a lot of the market is bouyed by money leaving muni and state bonds. They’re heading for exits there due to budgets being cratered by collapsing tax revenue and unsustainable pensions. They’re will lots of blood in those markets.

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-inv ... SL1N2BC2FT


This happened during the GFC as well, but it didn't bankrupt anybody in the end.

Also, why would you dump bonds issued by authorities receiving tax revenue that you know will be paid back eventually even if you have to sit through a few defaults, to purchase equity in corporations in distress that are not generating revenues?

During the GFC, people fled those bonds to gzet into gold and federal bonds, German bonds.

But why oh why are people buying into stocks?
Also, why does the taxpayer need to bailout airlines when they can simply issue new shares considering the enthusiasm of the equity markets?


Going forward, we will either see the stock market continue to be totally disconnected or we can experience a crash "like there's never been one before."
Next week will be interesting.


Why? Because they see a better opportunity to receive capital gains/dividends from corporations that participate in the world economy than the likelihood of getting paid by a sovereign authority that defaults. The states have been building up huge unfounded debts that they’ll never pay—bonds, pensions being first.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 13135
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:49 am

LCDFlight wrote:
Aesma is right that globalization reduced inflation. But the implication that the US can print infinite money without any penalty is an absurd one also, a signal that the current system will devolve, if the US continues to not pay its bills. If it occurs slowly, we can stave it off 50 years. If things accelerate (full shutdown, generous universal basic income, no economic activity) the reckoning and full collapse would take about 5 years. Another Argentina / Venezuela, a victim of low education, an ignorant and indolent public. I think people mistrust business, which is pretty darn dangerous, if you look at the alternatives; namely Argentina and ultimately, Venezuela. Places where people live far worse lives than their grandparents did.


There was no reason for the US to have any budget deficit in the last few years. Whether corporations or people should have paid more taxes, you choose, but it shouldn't have happened.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6022
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:12 am

Care to explain France’s deficit, then, when you’re paying 13% more of your GDP than the IECD average?

https://tradingeconomics.com/france/government-budget

https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statistics-france.pdf
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4221
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:52 am

Japanese debt has grown to about 250% of GNP. For a long time sober economists were saying inflation and disaster lay ahead. They finally have given up. In part, most of it is owed to Japanese savers. But economists still are not satisfied they understand why it does not cause inflation. Developed economies have entered a long slow growth period and seem to be inflation resistant.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:52 am

About Japan, I can give you an answer to that.
-Japan's industry is in a steady decline since the 1990's, fueled by a "can't do" mentality from the top down.
-Salaries are not going up as there is no competitivity between companies or even within companies. The current generation of business leaders were born in a comfortable society, so people are not stimulated to "be all they can be", complacency and self-satisfaction dominates the heart of the economy, Tokyo.
-The government and public authorities have huge revenues in Japan. While direct taxes such as sales tax, personal income tax or coporate tax rates are low relative to other nations, they make big bucks on other taxes such as real estate tax, estate tax (inheritances) and all kinds of back-door taxes. They also make big money on energy and transportation.
-Government spending is relatively low: low investments in the military, low health care coverage, low pensions.
-The real estate market is still very inflated. The deflation in the early 1990's only brought it down to a sane level, real estate is still prohibitively expensive with most single persons in Tokyo living in 20m² studio's.
 
Sokes
Posts: 1624
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:02 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
TARP was paid back. ... TARP ended up more successful than anyone thought possible.

If I'm not mistaken banks could borrow money for pretty much no interest from the central bank and lend it to the government for interest. So if you want to evaluate the success you have to deduct the gains made of ridiculous interest spread from the money paid back.

LCDFlight wrote:
By "stimulus," I was talking about the $1 trillion stimulus package in 2009. We just doubled that in the 2020 stimulus, and that was only a down payment on what we will need to do going forward. Here is a decent looking article comparing the two. https://www.complianceweek.com/regulato ... 88.article

If I may quote from your link:
"The CARES Act in at least one big way mirrors bailout packages from the financial crisis—TARP, particularly—by affording “lots of discretion” to the Treasury Secretary as it concerns the disbursal of monies, Hockett says.
...
up to $17 billion in loans and loan guarantees for businesses critical to maintaining national security, largely understood to be an effort to provide assistance for Boeing."
https://www.complianceweek.com/regulato ... 88.article

That reminds me of something I recently read about financial crisis in other countries:
"As the oligarchs in Yeltsin's Russia found out in 1998, it's a game of musical chairs; the post-crash government has enough foreign exchange reserves to help some big companies pay their debts, but not all of them. Usually the biggest of the big-the top chaebol, Suharto's close business allies... and the large Russian natural resource companies (such as Gazprom)-survive and prosper thanks to generous bailouts and other forms of government support. It's their smaller competitors who are cut adrift, while ordinary people suffer through government "austerity" measures.
...
Foreign lenders learn exactly the wrong lessons from the crisis: they learn that when push comes to shove, the IMF will protect them against the consequences of their bad investments; and they learn that it's always best to invest in the firms with the most political power (and hence the most assurance of being bailed out in a crisis), perpetuating the pattern of crony capitalism."
Simon Johnson, James Kwak; 13 BANKERS, 2010
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Sat Apr 25, 2020 3:55 pm

The Great Depression seems to have followed a similar pattern.

Image

https://stevekoerber.wordpress.com/2009 ... ash-chart/


We have also seen similar tight up and down patterns during the GFC:

Image

https://www.businessinsider.com/chart-f ... ?r=US&IR=T


So a significant correction is probably going to happen soon, but may take several months as the financial market absorbs data.
Another rally will follow that correction, and so on, until a meaningful recovery is initiated.

The market has been flat and low volume for the past 3 weeks, so this could be a sign of a prolonged fall rather than an acute crash.
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Mon May 04, 2020 4:10 am

The losses are stacking up now and futures pointing lower and lower.
We may see some steep drops this week.

If steep enough, we may be testing March lows by next week
 
Waterbomber2
Topic Author
Posts: 1288
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:38 pm

I'm reviving this thread as I see many "experts" predicting a correction or even an outright crash in the coming months.

In the past months, stock markets have followed the Trump mantra of a V-shaped recover, with retailers leading low volume trades into gains after gains until some indexes are marking record highs and some companies trading at 1000 forward P/E.

We are headed into the historically most likely period of the year for stock market crashes.

Gerald Celente expects a crash in September-October because that's when investors come back to reality: https://youtu.be/wQDBN5-GbEE?t=900

Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman thinks that the stock market is fed by mania and becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy and self-feeding Ponzi sceheme, and he's convinced that there are bubbles, that there is something crazy going on. Investors have not yet taken up how bad the Covid crisis is: https://youtu.be/h75kO1uPHo0?t=250
 
User avatar
seb146
Posts: 22519
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 1999 7:19 am

Re: Stock market total disconnect

Sat Aug 29, 2020 12:10 am

Right now, the number of people who have the extra finances to invest in any market is down. Way down. This artificial high is just a small group keeping the numbers up. It can not go on forever. Let these "too big to fail" companies trying to keep themselves propped up fail. Reaganomics has failed. It took about 40 years but we are seeing the end result of Reaganomics. Giving all to the few because it will "trickle down". And guess who "too big to fail" will blame? That's right: Main Street, not Wall Street.
You bet I'm pumped!!! I just had a green tea!!!

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